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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341357 times)

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1800 on: March 02, 2020, 03:32:25 PM »
VP Pence, as America's Leader of the COVID-19 task force, leads the COVID-19 task force in prayer. The Pope, as the leader of the Catholic Church catches a cold and seeks medical intervention.


Something is seriously wrong.
Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1801 on: March 02, 2020, 03:34:49 PM »
We are finding out about positive cases in the US when there are fatalities. Like in third world countries.

The government knew of course, but they are keeping it from everyone to keep everyone shopping. The same shit they are doing with climate change.

Iran isn’t third world but the US approach to Covid-19 seems not dissimilar though the reason for the failure is clearly very different.

The incompetence of the US administration in failing to put in place effective community screening in a country with such in depth and widely available expertise is mind blowing. How is it possible that a city like Seattle can be facing the same issues as Tehran?

Hair Furor has more important things to worry about...his reelection for one.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1802 on: March 02, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »
but you have to use your hand to open the outer door of the toilet/washing facility.

If i can't do it with your feet, you are not me.  ;D

But seriously, it's working well with elbows actually. Just a little training needed.

All public restroom doors should open out with a simple push as you exit. This has always bothered me.

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1803 on: March 02, 2020, 04:05:57 PM »
Welp....I'm fucked....

I work at one of the most trafficked, private, ice rinks on the east coast.  Every day i have my staff wipe down all the door handles, restrooms, est., but even doing that will not be enough once the virus starts to gain a foothold here.  On top of that my wife commutes into NYC 3 days a week via public transportation.

Instead of worrying about the obvious risks, we still go about our days just being more vigilant about basic hygiene.  I have all my dry goods, loads of chicken soup and a nice stash of ibuprofen.  Not much more we can do but just accept that we will probably get infected at some point and being able to handle it.

Gonna go snowboarding tomorrow to get a break from reality and put my mind more at ease, if even just for half the day.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1804 on: March 02, 2020, 04:10:59 PM »
GW, you're likely to be fine. Most cases are mild.

Which leads me to a question. It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others). As far as I know, there has not been an uptick in hospital admissions, ER and Urgent Care visits, etc. Assuming this is true, is that comforting? Or is that region still so low down on the growth curve that those things have not happened yet.

Any thoughts?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1805 on: March 02, 2020, 04:17:08 PM »
You know, personally I expect this to be a once in a century thing, like the Spanish Flu, but there is a chance this is the once in a millennium thing that ends an age, that might end the Modern Age as the Black Death helped end the Medieval Age and the Plague of Justinian helped end the Classical/Ancient Age.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1806 on: March 02, 2020, 04:19:02 PM »
GW, you're likely to be fine. Most cases are mild.

Which leads me to a question. It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others). As far as I know, there has not been an uptick in hospital admissions, ER and Urgent Care visits, etc. Assuming this is true, is that comforting? Or is that region still so low down on the growth curve that those things have not happened yet.

Any thoughts?

I agree that most cases are mild and also i'm not in a high risk age bracket.  However i do have a 1 year old at home with not an advanced immune system as my wife and i have which is what gives me pause. 

Growth rate in the US will be extremely unreliable as we were way behind the rest of the world in testing for the virus.  So when we do start testing more people the growth rate will surge.

edit:  blum it happened again  :-X . No matter how many times i re-read my post, dyslexia always gets the better of me.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 04:31:31 PM by GoodeWeather »

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1807 on: March 02, 2020, 04:22:06 PM »
GW, you're likely to be fine. Most cases are mild.

Which leads me to a question. It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others).
<Clip>
Any thoughts?
Three weeks (two weeks incubation and one in sickness, but not sure of these, nor haven't seen anything about the contagious period) is possibly the minimum, so too early to say anything
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 04:27:20 PM by Pmt111500 »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1808 on: March 02, 2020, 04:23:11 PM »
GW, you're likely to be fine. Most cases are mild.

Which leads me to a question. It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others). As far as I know, there has not been an uptick in hospital admissions, ER and Urgent Care visits, etc. Assuming this is true, is that comforting? Or is that region still so low down on the growth curve that those things have not happened yet.

Any thoughts?
I thought children and infants were nearly immune?

I agree that most cases are mild and also i'm not in a high risk age bracket.  However i do have a 1 year old at home with not an advanced immune system as my wife and i have which is what gives me pause. 

Growth rate in the US we be extremely unreliable as we were way behind the rest of the world in testing for the virus.  So when we do start testing more people the growth rate will surge.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1809 on: March 02, 2020, 04:32:18 PM »
Nanning asked yesterday:

"Who will serve the rich masterrace when the poor servants are ill or death?
Who will dig up the resources for the continued production of renewables?
Who will do all the menial jobs that are the axle grease of our global capitalist system?"

A consequence of the population reduction caused by the Black Death in the 13th century was a big rise in the demand for menial labour resulting in a much better standard of living for the lowest income earners.

This could be a consequence of a modern pandemic....
Or we might see a jump in the adoption of robots.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1810 on: March 02, 2020, 04:32:23 PM »
It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others). As far as I know, there has not been an uptick in hospital admissions, ER and Urgent Care visits, etc. Assuming this is true, is that comforting? Or is that region still so low down on the growth curve that those things have not happened yet.

Any thoughts?

Nobody notices when old and frail people are dying: Harold Shipman killed a few hundred. There was a similar case in Germany.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1811 on: March 02, 2020, 04:36:05 PM »
edit:  blum it happened again  :-X . No matter how many times i re-read my post, dyslexia always gets the better of me.

The ones judging you based on that are fucking morons anyway. Who cares?   :)

Also: Grammarly FTW! Just try it, the basic version is good enough and for free.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1812 on: March 02, 2020, 04:49:43 PM »

A consequence of the population reduction caused by the Black Death in the 13th century was a big rise in the demand for menial labour resulting in a much better standard of living for the lowest income earners.

Yes, that happened in Western Europe, however in Eastern Europe peasants became bound to the land they were born and they could not leave it at all. This state of things lasted in Russia for example until 1861! When you have a low supply of workforce you can do two things: pay them more (England) or put them into eternal servitude so that they can't leave you (Russia)

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1813 on: March 02, 2020, 04:52:45 PM »
You know, personally I expect this to be a once in a century thing, like the Spanish Flu, but there is a chance this is the once in a millennium thing that ends an age, that might end the Modern Age as the Black Death helped end the Medieval Age and the Plague of Justinian helped end the Classical/Ancient Age.

Black Death had a CFR above 50%, so I find your words a bit exagarrated.

On the other hand, this is the 3rd coronavirus infection of this century. There will likely be more. If any of the  next ones is as lethal as SARS or MERS AND spreads as fast as this one, then we will be truly doomed...

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1814 on: March 02, 2020, 04:53:56 PM »

A consequence of the population reduction caused by the Black Death in the 13th century was a big rise in the demand for menial labour resulting in a much better standard of living for the lowest income earners.

Yes, that happened in Western Europe, however in Eastern Europe peasants became bound to the land they were born and they could not leave it at all. This state of things lasted in Russia for example until 1861! When you have a low supply of workforce you can do two things: pay them more (England) or put them into eternal servitude so that they can't leave you (Russia)

Correct El Cid. We can be sure that the captains of industry have their preferred outcome....

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1815 on: March 02, 2020, 05:16:44 PM »
W.H.O. refuses to declare this a pandemic and their reasoning is that it doesn't appear more dangerous than influenza if terms of severity.  Lets look into when they declared a pandemic for H1N1.

Quote
A Pandemic Is Declared
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.
   

Can someone enlighten me as to WTF they are waiting for?????


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1816 on: March 02, 2020, 05:22:31 PM »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1817 on: March 02, 2020, 06:26:14 PM »
but you have to use your hand to open the outer door of the toilet/washing facility.

If i can't do it with your feet, you are not me.  ;D

But seriously, it's working well with elbows actually. Just a little training needed.
If you open the toilets with your feet, it's not the coronavirus that the next will get. Take a piece of toilet paper if needed.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1818 on: March 02, 2020, 06:28:35 PM »
Coronavirus: Nasa Images Show China Pollution Clear Amid Slowdown
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967



Satellite images have shown a dramatic decline in pollution levels over China, which is "at least partly" due to an economic slowdown prompted by the coronavirus, US space agency Nasa says.

This has popped up in my head a lot yesterday and today. How many lives is COVID-19 saving indirectly in this way? And doesn't it show that the readiness to contain and reduce the virus could and should be applied to AGW as well?
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1819 on: March 02, 2020, 06:30:19 PM »
NYC ER doctor: I have to ‘plead to test people’ for coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/02/coronavirus-testing-emergency-room-doctor-cdc-department-health-squawk-box.html

If we don't test them then they won't be counted as infected. This will calm the markets and increase Trump's chances of getting elected while helping the disease spread in cities like NY which are mainly Democratic. It's a twofer.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1820 on: March 02, 2020, 06:30:34 PM »
Germans taking part in coronavirus panic-hoarding are doing a “Hamsterkauf”
https://qz.com/1811000/hamsterkauf-germans-austrians-panic-buying-due-to-coronavirus/

There are even empty supermarket shelves in Germany amid the coronavirus outbreak, and of course there’s a German word to describe the act of panic hoarding.

The word Hamsterkauf, a noun made up of ...
Before I actually read what you wrote, I figured something like:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1821 on: March 02, 2020, 06:31:03 PM »
If you open the toilets with your feet, it's not the coronavirus that the next will get. Take a piece of toilet paper if needed.

Of course, that's right, Etienne.

The first sentence wasn't meant seriously. But the second one.  :)

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1822 on: March 02, 2020, 06:33:39 PM »
Wait a second, Tor. Those are funny rat-like looking hamsters!

BTW, i did my Hamsterkäufe (2 month worth of canned food, rice, canned fruits, toilet paper) weeks before others started their Hamsterkäufe.  8)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1823 on: March 02, 2020, 06:49:01 PM »
W.H.O. refuses to declare this a pandemic and their reasoning is that it doesn't appear more dangerous than influenza if terms of severity.  Lets look into when they declared a pandemic for H1N1.

Quote
A Pandemic Is Declared
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.
   

Can someone enlighten me as to WTF they are waiting for?????
The Pandemic bonds to expire (July 15 IIRC).

BTW, We canceled our Niagara trip.
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1824 on: March 02, 2020, 07:56:42 PM »
Today we had six infections in Belgium. And they already have to send people home because the capacity to test is at a maximum. No wonder people don't want these cruis ships.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1825 on: March 02, 2020, 08:38:12 PM »
Giant cruise ship company Holland America has a corona virus protocol on its website. Highlights include Onboard Corona virus testing for any passenger displaying respiratory illness symptoms and banning all Chinese from working their ships.
The Westerdam, the ship that got bounced from port to port over half of S.E. Asia like a cross between a plague ship and the Flying Dutchman has effectively been withdrawn from service.
https://www.hollandamerica.com/en_US/news/coronavirus-travel-advisory.html

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1826 on: March 02, 2020, 09:00:48 PM »
Well this came out of nowhere!!!

Six people have died from coronavirus in Washington state

Six people have now died in Washington state from the novel coronavirus, according to health officials.

A person has died from coronavirus in Snohomish County, according to Heather Thomas, spokesperson with the Snohomish Health District. No additional details were immediately available from the health district.

Five other people have died in King County, according to Jeffrey Duchin, a public health official with the county.


kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1827 on: March 02, 2020, 09:23:44 PM »
That did not come out of nowhere. Read some of the earlier posts about the US healthcare on this thread. Get tested for flu costs 4k$ and many can not pay that which will make the outcome worse also because of additional community spread.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1828 on: March 02, 2020, 09:36:33 PM »
A coworker with connections within the Florida Dept. of Health says there are 19 cases in Florida now.  But if you listen to me, it is definitely gossip!

The practice of using hand sanitizer has started.  I've had a little freebee container on my bookshelf that went untouched for a year and a half.  Now, four times today, once after each foray into other parts of the building.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1829 on: March 02, 2020, 10:12:29 PM »
This has popped up in my head a lot yesterday and today. How many lives is COVID-19 saving indirectly in this way?

Does it safe lives? Yes much less direct pollution so that helps a bit. Less traffic accidents i bet.

OTOH it costs lives in planned surgical procedures being postponed, less general health care all around.

And if you look at the greater climate repercussions i wonder about the shorter term effects. All this reduced activity means less masking aerosols from production and a reduction in flights.

It will be a while before we get numbers on the size of the resulting bump in temperatures and from there it is even more complicated to work out in resulting excess death from that but possibly that might result in more deaths of the hard to tease out statistical sort.

Quote
And doesn't it show that the readiness to contain and reduce the virus could and should be applied to AGW as well?
Applying it to AGW and the assorted areas in which capitalism is gutting the planet like aquifer and soil depletetion and chemical poisoning is even more important.

Plagues and pandemics are nice and tangible, much more so then AGW unless you delve into it.

Oh no! You might get sick and die...or your shares might go down a bit. The horror.

AGW is much more important. Do unto others as you would wish they would do unto you and look at actual time scales. If you have kids and thus possibly grandkids it should be worth giving up some current wealth to give them a much better chance.

Also this is about our general handling of the planet. For some reason many people still believe that our current system is sort of a given and you cannot change that while that is exactly what needs to be done since entranched interests don´t move.

This can be seen in some analysis in the economic related thread and also in our vocal dutch farmers. They stand up for the way they do things but don´t think about the fact that the way they do things now seriously hurts their (grand)children.

FWIW during the Back Death in England people kept migrating to the high mortality areas because upwards social mobility is really important but at least some people are waking up to the fact that we are running out of planet (or running our planet out of bounds we can handle).

AGW is much more important but people keep thinking in the current system while we need something else.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1830 on: March 02, 2020, 10:17:17 PM »
we are running out of planet

This is a phrase, so on point, i will steal it from you someday. Thanks in advance, Kassy!  :)

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1831 on: March 02, 2020, 10:26:16 PM »
That did not come out of nowhere. Read some of the earlier posts about the US healthcare on this thread. Get tested for flu costs 4k$ and many can not pay that which will make the outcome worse also because of additional community spread.

Yes, to us on this thread it did not come out of nowhere, but for the general public it did. Death rate for confirmed US mainland cases is now over 10%.  And yes, the real death rate if probably much lower due to more cases out their waiting to be confirmed.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1832 on: March 02, 2020, 10:44:42 PM »
Coronavirus Name


edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1833 on: March 02, 2020, 10:52:39 PM »
That did not come out of nowhere. Read some of the earlier posts about the US healthcare on this thread. Get tested for flu costs 4k$ and many can not pay that which will make the outcome worse also because of additional community spread.

Yes, to us on this thread it did not come out of nowhere, but for the general public it did. Death rate for confirmed US mainland cases is now over 10%.  And yes, the real death rate if probably much lower due to more cases out their waiting to be confirmed.
All six deaths occurred at EvergreenHealth Health hospital in Kirkland including two clients of the Life Care long-term care centre where an outbreak was confirmed. There's a pretty good chance that all deaths end up being connected to the long-term care centre somehow. Regardless, there's very soon going to be a large uptick in the number of cases both confirmed and unconfirmed in the Seattle area.

Also given, what we know about who disease affects most, there's likely to be a quick uptick in the number of fatalities. Residents of long-term care facilities are vulnerable at the best of times.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-now-has-14-coronavirus-cases-including-5-deaths/
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 10:59:45 PM by edmountain »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1834 on: March 02, 2020, 10:58:20 PM »
This would be funny if it wasn't so damn tragic.




I blame this malaise straight on Trump's insistence that this was a hoax and just a cold.  Why go through all the rigor of full ppe for "just a cold"?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1835 on: March 03, 2020, 12:09:00 AM »
W.H.O. refuses to declare this a pandemic and their reasoning is that it doesn't appear more dangerous than influenza if terms of severity.  Lets look into when they declared a pandemic for H1N1.

Quote
A Pandemic Is Declared
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.
   

Can someone enlighten me as to WTF they are waiting for?????

They moved to their top threat level a few days ago. Get a more reliable news source. e.g.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

sitrep 39 is the first with the top threat level, the latest sitrep is 42.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1836 on: March 03, 2020, 12:51:41 AM »
From the WHO director general's latest press briefing

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---2-march-2020

Quote
We are in unchartered territory. We have never before seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can also be contained with the right measures.

If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now, and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.

But containment of COVID-19 is feasible and must remain the top priority for all countries.

Containment means not going to a known hot spot if you can avoid it.
Isolation at home on return, or on discovery that an area you were in recently is a hot spot.
Isolate if you weren't already, and consult by phone, not in person, if you think you have symptoms.

In the UK the isolation period is 14 days, and the number to call is 111.

Anywhere could be a yet to be detected hotspot, and the best way to avoid being part of that hotspot is to wash your hands, and catch your sneezes.

Containment is actually working, but the threat remains very high everywhere. Be aware of what the basic advice is, and pass it on.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1837 on: March 03, 2020, 01:29:50 AM »
This would be funny if it wasn't so damn tragic.
<SNIP>
I blame this malaise straight on Trump's insistence that this was a hoax and just a cold.  Why go through all the rigor of full ppe for "just a cold"?

Archmid- where did you get the bottom image? I ask because the triptych is so compelling that I'd like to share it, but I'm concerned that the image may not actually be what it appears to be- a dead person being removed from a care facility in Washington.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1838 on: March 03, 2020, 01:48:04 AM »
Judge in my county in quarantine.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1839 on: March 03, 2020, 02:03:47 AM »
SEattle times I believe .. I just closed the page.  It was on feature photo on the daily running  blog on Covid-19    But I am having problems finding. 

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1840 on: March 03, 2020, 02:13:43 AM »
Archimid's picture is probably all too real . I watched in disbelief what was obviously someone being transferred from old folks home to ambulance in Washington 24+ hours ago .. pretty sure it was on bbc .. again no precautions beyond basic masks . If that's the USA's preparedness I guess someone has calculated if you are going to lose the pensioners , may as well get the carers off the payroll too .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1841 on: March 03, 2020, 02:43:00 AM »
CDC Released a Woman in Texas Who Tested Positive for the Coronavirus: ‘Totally Unacceptable’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-latest-updates-outbreak.html

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mistakenly released a woman from quarantine in Texas who tested positive for COVID-19, San Antonio officials said. The woman was among the 91 Americans evacuated from Wuhan and placed in federal, 14-day quarantine at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland. The woman tested negative twice for the new coronavirus and was released on Saturday, San Antonio mayor Ron Nirenberg said. (... this is the 2nd time, the 1st was in California a week or 2 ago.)

“Unfortunately after the person’s release, the CDC received the results of another test that showed a weakly positive confirmation of the virus that causes COVID-19,” Nirenberg said at a news briefing.

----------------------------

CDC Says US Cases Jump To 91
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there are currently 91 confirmed or presumed positive cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. At least 48 of those are people who were evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

At least 17 cases — 12 confirmed and 5 presumptive positive — are travel-related infections. Twenty-six cases — four confirmed and 22 presumptive positive — are from human-to-human interaction, according to the agency’s website. The CDC reported just over 60 confirmed cases on Sunday.

The CDC is now adding “presumptive” positive cases to its daily tally. Those are patients who have tested positive at a state or local lab and are awaiting confirmation from the CDC.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1842 on: March 03, 2020, 03:05:28 AM »
From RR's quote of WHO chief, in case you missed it:

We are in unchartered territory.

We have never before seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission...


The rest is just trying to calm the waters. Other epidemiologists are admitting that the cat is already out of the bag.

That doesn't take away from all of RR's and others' excellent advise. But let's not pretend this thing is anything like 'under control' as the Trump regime and other discredited totalitarian propagandists keep trying to falsely claim

Meanwhile: South Korea reports 476 new cases of virus

South Korea has reported 476 new cases of virus, taking the total in the country to 4,688.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-live-updates-china-latest-news-us-australia-deaths-markets-italy-iran-update-cases-italy-south-korea-japan

But then I see these numbers from Al Jazeera:

01:20 GMT - South Korea outbreak continues to grow

Quote
South Korea has reported 600 new coronavirus cases in its first daily update on Tuesday. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) also says three more people died overnight.

Total cases in the country now stand at 4,812
Was it revised down? 600 seems a suspiciously round number

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-china-cases-slow-live-updates-200303003539680.html
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 03:12:14 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1843 on: March 03, 2020, 03:09:41 AM »
From Reddit, I don't know about the top two, but the bottom one was from the "Life Care Center in Kirkland". Look it up in google images.

Why would they wear greater protection? The message they are getting is "this is a hoax from the left", "this is just the flu", "this is not airborne". Both the CDC and WHO have droplet precautions.

I believe that to be wholly inadequate. A primary means of infection are fomites. Look at all of them with civilian clothes exposed all over the place. They will take the droplets home.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1844 on: March 03, 2020, 03:14:36 AM »
Archimid's picture is probably all too real . I watched in disbelief what was obviously someone being transferred from old folks home to ambulance in Washington 24+ hours ago .. pretty sure it was on bbc .. again no precautions beyond basic masks . If that's the USA's preparedness I guess someone has calculated if you are going to lose the pensioners , may as well get the carers off the payroll too .. b.c.
Interestingly the CDC guidelines for infection prevention and control for COVID-19 seem to be more strict than most other jurisdictions. CDC recommend N95 masks and negative-pressure isolation at all times. WHO guidelines recommend N95 masks and negative-pressure isolation only when aerosolizing procedures (e.g., endotracheal intubation) are being performed; at other times a regular medical mask can be used. Canadian guidelines are roughly parallel to WHO guidelines.

The WHO guidelines actually make more sense given what we know about the mechanism of transmission of this disease. N95 masks and negative-pressure isolation rooms are valuable resources and need to be used rationally.

WHO guidelines for IPC:
https://www.who.int/publications-detail/infection-prevention-and-control-during-health-care-when-novel-coronavirus-(ncov)-infection-is-suspected-20200125

Health Canada:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/interim-guidance-acute-healthcare-settings.html#a4.10

CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/infection-control/control-recommendations.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fhcp%2Finfection-control.html

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1845 on: March 03, 2020, 03:34:14 AM »
wili - South Korea releases test results twice a day so numbers will change over a 24 hour period. Apparently the actual number was 599 not 600.



--------------------------

New Yorkers Get Help Paying for Tests (8:18 a.m. HK)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-cases-deaths-climb-treatment-seen-in-months-virus-update/ar-BB10EwPd

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a directive requiring New York health insurers to waive cost-sharing associated with virus test. “We can’t let cost be a barrier to access to COVID-19 testing for any New Yorker,” Cuomo said in a Tweet.

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1234634259912155137

---------------------------------

Coronavirus Likely at ‘Pandemic Proportions,’ Fauci Says (1:06 p.m. NY)

National Institutes of Health infectious-disease expert Anthony Fauci told NBC News that the coronavirus outbreak has “now reached outbreak proportions and likely pandemic proportions,” a reporter at the network said in a tweet.

In the interview, Fauci said the U.S. may have to consider social mitigation acts, such as temporarily closing schools and events with large crowds in confined spaces. “We’re not ready for it right now, but we need to be at least thinking about the possibility,” Fauci said, according to the reporter.

---------------------------------

“It’s not influenza, and it’s not behaving like influenza,” said Michael Ryan, the director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, at the WHO’s daily briefing. He said the death rate is 2% or possibly higher. That would be at least 20 times more than for seasonal flu, which typically has a death rate of about 0.1%.

--------------------------------

WTO Sees ‘Substantial’ Impact on World Economy (9:10 a.m. NY)

The impact of Covid-19 on the global economy will “likely be substantial,” World Trade Organization Director-General Roberto Azevedo told a meeting of trade delegates in Geneva Monday.

The effects will start to show up in the trade data in the coming weeks, he said. The WTO’s June ministerial meeting in Kazakhstan is “proceeding as planned. Should the situation so demand we will take any necessary action.”

--------------------------------

Trump Meets With Drugmakers (4:44 p.m. NY)

President Donald Trump asked drugmakers what his administration can do to speed up the development of drugs or vaccines to treat the new coronavirus.

“We are going to be very successful,” Trump said at a White House meeting with Gilead Sciences Inc., Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc. and other pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms. “A lot of exciting things are happening, and they’re happening very rapidly.”



Trump didn’t go into specifics on what measures the government might take to help them.

The Trump administration is discussing a series of steps to contain the economic and market fallout from the rapidly spreading coronavirus, including a push for the Federal Reserve to enact an emergency rate cut and a possible tax cut.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend a global health event on March 9 in Orlando, Florida, according to a U.S. official, as his administration seeks to demonstrate it’s doing a good job responding to the coronavirus.



Pence earlier told Fox Business Network that the government now expects “many more cases” in the U.S.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence is set to meet with airline chief executive officers on Wednesday and cruise line CEOs on Saturday, according to a Trump administration official, as stocks of those companies fall as a result of concern over the coronavirus. (... got to have our priorities)



--------------------------------

Trump Questions Time to Make Coronavirus Vaccine

This footage shows President Trump appearing to question the length of time it may take to make a vaccine for the coronavirus, and being corrected by Dr Anthony Facui, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). (... Fucking Moron!!!)

Infectious diseases head Dr. Anthony Fauci has to stop Trump from asserting in a White House meeting that coronavirus vaccine would be available in two months: "Like I've been telling you, a year to a year and a half."

https://mobile.twitter.com/owillis/status/1234599053725491200

Video at link
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 04:12:00 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1846 on: March 03, 2020, 03:37:41 AM »
Hmm. Until now everything I have read or seen from the CDC said droplet protection. But I'm a bit crazy, maybe I imagined it. I even get the feeling that no one else noticed it either. But oh well. I'm glad it is there now.

Now let everyone working on this know so that they can take care of themselves while they are saving us.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1847 on: March 03, 2020, 04:06:37 AM »
Use Standard Precautions, Contact Precautions, and Airborne Precautions and eye protection when caring for patients with confirmed or possible COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/caring-for-patients.html

(my emphasis)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1848 on: March 03, 2020, 04:13:10 AM »
Archimid, I noticed people without gloves in short sleeve shirts in pictures from a post I linked earlier.
https://www.kuow.org/stories/live-blog-coronavirus-updates-in-seattle-area
??? 
You can buy a tyvek suit at any ag supply store for about ten bucks. Goggles + gloves are cheap.
How bulletproof do you suppose the quarantine is on the twenty five firefighters or cops or nursing home staff that moved these Covid-19 patients?  I bet they are quarantined with their families so we get to see if the Wuhan family transmissions and clusters trend continues.
“Those under quarantine are fire fighters and police officers that came into contact with patients at Life Care Center in Kirkland recently.

Kellie Stickney, city of Kirkland spokesperson, said this was done under an "abundance of caution."

She said those under quarantine include 25 Kirkland fire fighters and two Kirkland police officers.

While in Redmond, seven fire fighters are being quarantined. These seven are asymptomatic, said Lisa Maher, Redmond representative.

They will remain under quarantine for 14 days.”

From the Seattle times
“Stickney said all of the firefighters but one had chosen to quarantine at home. The sole firefighter who hadn’t stayed home was hunkered down in an empty fire station that is awaiting decontamination, she said.”
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 08:34:05 AM by Bruce Steele »

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1849 on: March 03, 2020, 04:26:23 AM »
Use Standard Precautions, Contact Precautions, and Airborne Precautions and eye protection when caring for patients with confirmed or possible COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/caring-for-patients.html

(my emphasis)
Yes, however as noted above that's different from most of jurisdictions who recommend airborne precautions only when aerosolizing procedures are being performed.