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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341388 times)

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1950 on: March 05, 2020, 01:46:51 AM »
 Oh dear .. 2 strains , the less lethal being dominant in the orient , while in the occidental we Meanwhile the president of China wears the lightest of protection and a big smile . b.c.

 p.s. Indeed Terry .. I wasn't joking a month ago when I remarked N.Ireland has nowhere to put the millions of chcken feet that went to China every week .. Local employment is dominated by meat processing and Agriculture in a world market . There is no concept of providing local food to the community anymore ..


pps .. I see that another chunk of text went missing .. perhaps you can imagine it ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1951 on: March 05, 2020, 01:57:54 AM »
US currently has 10% of face masks needed for a ‘full-blown’ coronavirus pandemic, HHS official says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-latest-updates-outbreak.html

Health and Human Services official Dr. Robert Kadlec estimates the country would need roughly 3.5 billion of medical-grade N95 masks, which filter out about 95% of all liquid or airborne particles. “We have about 35 million,” Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response, said before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions on Tuesday. “Ten percent, and we’re actively working on that.”


35 million / 3.5 billion = 1%, not ten percent.
But it is very reassuring that they are working on it.

Andre,  you are sharper than both the HHS spokesman and myself. Maybe he wanted to sugar-coat it for those watching on TV. And the numerically challenged politicians.

It's actually worse ...

--------------------

HHS Clarifies US Has About 1% of Face Masks Needed for ‘Full-Blown’ Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The Department of Health and Human Services clarified that the United States has about 1%, not 10%, of the required respirator masks that would be needed for medical professionals if the COVID-19 outbreak were to erupt into a pandemic here.

The agency said its pandemic planning assumptions estimate the U.S. health-care system will need up to 3.5 billion N95 respirator masks over a year.

The Strategic National Stockpile, the nation’s emergency stockpile of drugs and medical supplies, currently holds approximately 12 million medical-grade N95 respirator masks and 30 million surgical face masks (... that won't do shit in a hot zone), according to an HHS spokesperson. That’s a small fraction of the masks need in a pandemic scenario.  (... ya think!)

12 million ÷ 3.5 billion = ~ 0.3%
 


-------------------------

The Coronavirus Test Will Be Covered By Medicaid, Medicare and Private Insurance, Pence Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/pence-announces-coronavirus-test-will-be-covered-by-medicaid-medicare.html

The COVID-19 test will be covered by Medicaid, Medicare and private insurance plans, Vice President Mike Pence said Wednesday.

“HHS has already denominated a test for the coronavirus to be an essential health benefit, which ensures that it will be covered by people’s private health insurance. It will be covered by Medicare and Medicaid,” Pence said at a news briefing alongside diagnostic laboratory executives.

... Private insurance plans will also cover the test since it is an essential health benefit, but unlike other mandated diagnostic tests like a mammogram, they will still require cost-sharing.

(... those blood sucking weasels - never let a tragedy go to waste)

The potential for out-of-pocket costs poses a barrier to getting tested for people who are uninsured and may be infected with COVID-19.

An underinsured man in Miami recently went to a hospital to be checked for the coronavirus after traveling to China, and although a routine test revealed that he only had the flu, he received a bill for $3,270, according to the Miami Herald.

Roughly 8.5% of the U.S. population, or 27.5 million people, didn't have health insurance at all in 2018, up from 7.9%, or 25.6 million people, in 2017.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1171437540726861826

------------------------

DHS Employee Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

A Department of Homeland Security employee has tested positive for the coronavirus, DHS press secretary Heather Swift said in a statement Wednesday.

The employee, one of at least six people in Los Angeles who have tested positive for COVID-19, worked last month as a medical screener checking passengers arriving from China at LAX, DHS said.

“Late last night, DHS headquarters was alerted to a situation where one of our contracted medical professionals conducting screenings at LAX international airport had tested positive for COVID-19,” the statement said. “This individual is currently under self-quarantine at home with mild symptoms and under medical supervision. Their immediate family is also under home quarantine.”

----------------------------

NIH Official Questioned About WHO Mortality Rate
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

NIH official Dr. Anthony Fauci told lawmakers the mortality rate for COVID-19 could change depending on how many people ultimately fall ill and die from the virus. World health officials said Tuesday that the current mortality rate was around 3.4%, significantly higher than previous estimates.

“As a group, it’s going to depend completely on what the factor of asymptomatic cases are,” he said, adding the more asympotmatic cases, the lower the mortality rate.

“What we’re hearing right now on a recent call from the WHO this morning is that there aren’t as many asymptomatic cases as we think, which made them elevate, I think, what their mortality is,” he said.

Quote
...“I’m torn. If we get enough data to have a big [numerator] it’s gonna be bad news for us.”

---------------------------------

New York Confirms 5 New Cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo confirmed five new COVID-19 cases in the state — hours after he said that a family in Westchester was infected with the virus, bringing the state’s total to 11.

The cases all stem from a Westchester lawyer who worked in Manhattan and is in critical condition in New York Presbyterian Hospital, Cuomo said.

His family is ill and he infected a friend of his who then passed it on to his wife, two sons and a daughter, Cuomo said. The children all attend the West Torah Academy, which is located in White Plains, NY, according to its website.

----------------------------

Grocery Stockpiling is Most Severe Near Coronavirus Clusters—Then There’s Colorado
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Colorado has yet to report any cases of the new coronavirus in the state, yet consumers there are already stockpiling more powdered milk and cans of soup than in Washington state, where at least nine people have died due to the virus.

But Coloradans aren’t the only ones stocking up on canned goods and cleaning supplies.

Hand sanitizer sales have skyrocketed 619% nationwide in the week ending March 1, according to data from marketing firm Catalina, which compared the sales of 33 products to the same period a year ago. Disinfecting cleaners and wipes have seen their sales more than double. Grocery store and retailers are trying to prevent shortages from “panic buying″ as more cases of the virus are confirmed in the United States.

----------------------------

Campbell Soup is Increasing Production to Prepare for Coronavirus Demand
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Campbell Soup CEO Mark Clouse said Wednesday that the company is increasing soup production in response to the coronavirus outbreak. “We made the decision last week to up production in certain areas where we’re using a little bit the analogy of weather or natural disasters,” Clouse said on CNBC. And we’ve upped that level of production to be able to maximize our inventory to be prepared for whatever unfolds here.”

Consumers, particularly those closest to virus clusters, have been stockpiling canned soup and other shelf-stable foods as more cases of the disease are reported in the U.S.

---------------------------

- Global cases: More than 95,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

- Global deaths: At least 3,250, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

- US cases: At least 138, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

- US deaths: At least 11, according to the CDC and state health officials.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 02:18:53 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1952 on: March 05, 2020, 02:56:36 AM »
Maybe 0.3% is an overestimate ...

-------------------------

Some VA Stockpiles of Protective Medical Masks Aren’t Usable
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/some-va-stockpiles-of-protective-medical-masks-aren-t-usable

Some emergency stockpiles of respirator masks at the Department of Veterans Affairs have deteriorated in storage and can’t be used, according to an internal email warning that the agency’s supplies may be overestimated.

The warning about problems in caches of emergency supplies comes after the World Health Organization said Tuesday that disruptions to the global supply of personal protective equipment are putting lives at risk in the novel coronavirus outbreak.

VA officials in one region in the southeastern U.S. were inspecting their stocks of the respirators, known as N95s, which filter out more particles than standard surgical masks. The masks are effective shields against infection only when properly fitted

“The rubberized straps are deteriorated due to prolonged storage,” a VA employee wrote in the email to medical and emergency staff viewed by Bloomberg News, rendering “the majority” of the N95s in storage in that service area unusable. That would also leave the area “at a critically low” level of supply, according to the email. The email’s author sought guidance on using masks beyond their expiration date.

Front-line medical workers are particularly at risk for exposure to the novel coronavirus and other more routine pathogens that respirators can help protect against.

The message also warned that without inspecting the supply of masks, “our inventory at hand is woefully overestimating what really we are able to use.”

The Veterans Health Administration is organized into 18 regional networks that manage 172 medical centers and care for more than 7 million veterans annually. The email appeared to describe the situation in one regional network. It is unclear whether the problem affected other regions.

-------------------------

Drugmakers Promise Affordable Vaccines, Treatments (4:25 p.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-death-toll-rises-global-fatality-rate-34percent-virus-update/ar-BB10HLFp

Executives from Sanofi, Johnson & Johnson and other drugmakers committed to affordable access of potential coronavirus vaccines and treatments, at a briefing with reporters Wednesday.

“We’re keenly aware of what’s at stake here,” said Stephen Ubl, head of PhRMA, the industry’s lobbying arm.

Daniel O’Day, chief executive officer of Gilead Sciences Inc., said there are many factors that need to be considered when pricing a drug, such as what other treatments are available and how to ensure there’s an ability to reinvest into medicines for other potential pandemics.

-----------------------

U.K. Lawmakers Discuss Contingency Plans (11:52 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-death-toll-rises-global-fatality-rate-34percent-virus-update/ar-BB10HLFp

The U.K. Parliament is working on contingency plans to keep functioning if there are restrictions placed on public gatherings to delay the spread of coronavirus. The U.K. said Wednesday that cases jumped by 34 to a total of 85.

Ministers “will be saying a little bit more in the next couple of days,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the House of Commons after he was asked about using conference calls and electronic voting to pass legislation.

“Conversations have been had with Parliament, as you’d expect, and if and when there are further steps to set out, they will be made public,” Johnson’s spokesman, James Slack, said later. “You have to make a judgment on the most opportune and effective time to implement these measures, and that will be a calculation for the experts.”



------------------------

EU Fears Cascading Effects on Economy From Virus (9:12 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-death-toll-rises-global-fatality-rate-34percent-virus-update/ar-BB10HLFp

The coronavirus is threatening to plunge both France and Italy into recession, and a prolonged epidemic could ripple through the region’s economy and financial markets and cause a “vicious sovereign-bank loop,” European finance ministers were warned by officials on Wednesday.

“A longer and more widespread epidemic could have a disproportionate negative impact through uncertainty and financial-market channels,” according to a European Commission briefing note on the economic impact, seen by Bloomberg. “Cascading effects could stem from liquidity shortages in firms that have to stop production, amplified and spread out by financial markets.”’
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1953 on: March 05, 2020, 03:21:25 AM »
Cruise To Return to San Francisco Early After Ex-Passenger Dies of Coronavirus
https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/grand-princess-cruise-cancels-call-to-mexico-will-return-to-san-francisco-after-cdc-says-it-is-investigating-small-cluster-of-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-ship/amp/

The CDC announced Wednesday it is investigating a “small cluster” of coronavirus cases linked to passengers who were on a recent voyage aboard a Grand Princess cruise ship.

Some passengers aboard the cruise ship have flu-like symptoms, the CDC says.

The City and County of San Francisco are preparing to provide care as appropriate to those on board as the ship is expected to dock back in San Francisco Thursday afternoon.



--------------------------------

California Declares an Emergency and Reports the First U.S. Death Outside Washington State
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-news.html

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on Wednesday that the state was declaring a state of emergency to help mobilize its response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The announcement came as the number of cases in the state shot up — it now has at least 54, the most in the nation — and as a cruise ship tied to at least two cases lingered off the San Francisco coast.

Governor Newsom said that about 2,500 people, more than half of them Californians, had been aboard that ship during a recent voyage from San Francisco to Mexico. One of those passengers died Wednesday in Placer County, Calif., the first U.S. coronavirus death outside Washington State. Another passenger was being treated for the illness in Sonoma County. State and federal officials were racing to contact others who had been on board.

Mr. Newsom said the ship, identified by its owner as the Grand Princess, had gone on to Hawaii after its stop in Mexico, and then had sailed back toward California with some of the passengers from the original San Francisco-to-Mexico leg of the voyage still on board.

The Grand Princess was being held off the coast of San Francisco on Wednesday evening as public health officials prepared to screen everyone on the ship. The governor said some people on board had reported possible coronavirus symptoms.

21 on cruise ship linked to two COVID-19 cases showing symptoms, Calif. governor says

The Princess cruise ship that has been linked to at least two cases of COVID-19 in California, including that of a person who died, has 21 people — 11 passengers and 10 crew members — on board who are showing symptoms, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday

----------------------------

India Confronts Arrival of the Virus
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-news.html

Until this week, only a handful of cases of the new coronavirus had been reported in India.

But on Tuesday, the first case was reported in New Delhi, with a man who had recently traveled to Italy testing positive. Six of his family members were also found to have the illness.

On Wednesday, the number of cases jumped to 28, including 16 Italian tourists.

And there were concerns that, in a country where only 22 percent of deaths are medically certified, the true rate of infection might already be higher.


... Holi, a major religious festival, takes place next week. The festival brings together entire neighborhoods across India, with friends and relatives applying colorful powders to each other’s faces while children stage giant water fights and share food.

What will happen 5-14 days later?

----------------------------

India Exporting COVID-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-live-updates-italy-germany-pandemic-europe-uk-us-australia-india-update-latest-news

Hong Kong authorities have confirmed the 105th case of Covid-19, in a 69-year-old Happy Valley woman who recently returned from India.

The woman had an underlying illness, and fell sick in India on 23 February, the day before she returned home to Hong Kong on Cathay Pacific flight CX694 from New Delhi.

Four days later she developed a fever and consulted a Chinese medical practitioner twice, before visiting an out-patient clinic on 3 March. After testing positive for Covid-19 the woman was admitted to Ruttonjee hospital on Wednesday, and is in a stable condition.

--------------------------

South Korea Reports 438 New Cases, 3 Additional Deaths
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-south-korea-cases.html

The total number of confirmed cases in South Korea is now 5,766, including 35 deaths, according to the country’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The outbreak jumped in recent weeks, with most cases reported in the city of Daegu and surrounding areas.



-----------------------------

China Reports 139 New Confirmed Cases, 31 Additional Deaths
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-south-korea-cases.html

China’s National Health Commission said there were 139 additional cases and 31 new deaths as of Wednesday. All of those fatalities occurred in Hubei province, the epicenter of the virus outbreak. To date, there have been a total of 80,409 confirmed cases on the mainland, with 52,045 people discharged and 3,012 dead.



------------------------

Australia's chief medical officer warns worst case scenario for Australia is 'millions of people being infected over a period of several weeks'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-live-updates-italy-germany-pandemic-europe-uk-us-australia-india-update-latest-news

------------------------

Authorities in New South Wales, Australia are assessing a group of children from a childcare centre who visited a Sydney aged care home last month, before four people at the centre were diagnosed with Covid-19.

NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said young children were “often super spreaders” of respiratory illnesses and that he was recommending visits by childcare centres to aged care homes be discontinued.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 05:30:22 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1954 on: March 05, 2020, 04:08:21 AM »
CNN:
“One of the newly announced coronavirus cases in Los Angeles county is a medical screener at Los Angeles International Airport, according to the Department of Homeland Security "
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnn/status/1235334997734719488

——-
 ;D :o
Rex Chapman on Twitter: "Coronavirus instructions. Wait for it...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1235252608845197314
15 sec video.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1955 on: March 05, 2020, 04:26:44 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1956 on: March 05, 2020, 05:09:43 AM »
Ray Dalio, one of Wall Street’s highest profile hedge fund bosses, has described the coronavirus as “one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events” that will hit companies with large debt levels the hardest and potentially lead to a significant economic downturn.

The founder of Bridgewater Associates, a fund with $160bn in assets, said the crisis could be broken into three parts: 1) the virus, 2) the economic impact of reactions to the virus, and 3) the market action.

------------------------------

Europe’s Largest Regional Airline Collapses, Coronavirus Last Straw
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/05/flybe-collapses-two-months-after-government-announces-rescue

The impact of the coronavirus on flight bookings proved the last straw for the Exeter-based airline, which operates almost 40% of UK domestic flights, as the government stalled on a controversial £100m loan

Won't be the last.

-----------------------------

In China, a 36-year-old man who had been confirmed to have the virus and was discharged from a hospital in Wuhan on 26 February has died, according to the Chinese publication the Paper, who cited his wife. The man suddenly became ill on 2 March and died after going to the hospital. The cause of death was respiratory failure caused by Covid-19.

China has been noting daily increases in the number of people “cured” or discharged from hospitals after being confirmed to have the virus. But, after several cases of released patients testing positive again, authorities in Hubei ordered that released patients be quarantined for another 14 days.

Beijing Ditan Hospital in Beijing has meanwhile found that a patient who tested positive for Covid-19 has suffered viral encephalitis caused by the virus, adding to evidence the infections can cause damage to patients’ nervous systems.

----------------------------

In the US, all NASA employees will be working from home on Friday, POLITICO reports. The measure is partly in order to “stress test” their remote work technologies in case an extended period of remote work.

--------------------------------

Tech giant Microsoft has become the latest firm to ask its employees in "high-risk" areas to work from home if possible.

The company asked workers in Seattle and San Francisco, the areas where all 11 of the US fatalities were recorded, to stay away from their offices until March 25.

------------------------------

First ‘Presumptive Positive’ Case Reported In New Jersey
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-update-first-e2-80-98presumptive-positive-e2-80-99-case-reported-in-new-jersey/ar-BB10LbpS

--------------------------------

Facebook Sees First Infection, in Seattle (10:46 a.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-05/facebook-says-employee-in-seattle-diagnosed-with-coronavirus

Facebook Inc. said an employee in Seattle has been diagnosed with the coronavirus, the first known infection within the company as the virus continues to spread in the region.

The employee, a contractor, was last in Facebook’s Stadium East office in Seattle on Feb. 21. The company alerted employees Wednesday night and said the Seattle office will be closed to all employees until March 9. Employees in Seattle are also being encouraged to work from home until the end of the month.

------------------------------

The Amazon employee who tested positive for COVID-19 and went home sick on Feb. 25 had dinner at Facebook’s Seattle office the previous night. Facebook confirmed the employee visited its building, Arbor Blocks 333, on Feb. 24. Facebook said Wednesday that it “took immediate action and implemented targeted deep cleaning and enhanced sanitization measures at our cafes at our Arbor Blocks location.”

-------------------------

Washington Conference (7:39 a.m. HK)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/china-deaths-top-3000-california-calls-emergency-virus-update/ar-BB10L9VA

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) said Wednesday that a person infected with the coronavirus had contact in New York with people who attended the organization’s policy conference in Washington this week.

AIPAC, an influential pro-Israel lobby, said it has been in close contact with Washington’s health department. “There is no evidence of community spread in D.C.,” according to the District of Columbia Health Department. Among the speakers at the AIPAC conference were Vice President Mike Pence, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg, the former New York mayor and the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 05:32:01 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1957 on: March 05, 2020, 08:30:36 AM »
Some sort of summary of best guesses of COVID-19 (COrona VIrus Disease -19) until now might be a good idea.

Positive sense RNA, enveloped, Coronaviruses such as common cold viruses (at least 3 types, which do mutate to rise regular epidemics) are not the closest relatives to this virus, though 1 of them belongs to the same betacoronavirus genus as the COV-2. Some reports state some humans are not badly infected by COV-2, maybe they've been exposed to this cousin of COV-2 and got some immunity

Basically, this is mostly the same as, brother or sister virus of,  SARS-virus with some mutations. These mutations have made it less lethal, but easier to spread, as the severest lung symptoms are not developed in almost 80% of cases, these mild cases though make it so the containment is harder, the infected person might think he has just an abnormally severe cold or some new Influenza. As with common cold viruses the contagious period likely starts with the first dry coughs indicating upper respiratory system infection. The incubation period maybe  as short as 4 days, but this is difficult to assess as the virus may stay infective on contaminated surfaces for quite long, probably over a week.

Circa 20% of cases progress to severe pneumonia-like condition in lungs. ...

-----------

No. I'm not going to write this up in full. Do not bite off heads of sick bats.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 09:43:48 AM by Pmt111500 »

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1958 on: March 05, 2020, 09:31:07 AM »
Some doctor here in Finland noted a difference in symptoms to many other infectious respiratory diseases. Only very few patients have a runny nose, so if you have a runny nose in mild fever, it's probably not this one.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1959 on: March 05, 2020, 11:47:21 AM »
England’s Chief Medical Officer Strikes Pessimistic Tone Over UK Outbreak
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a94cc1f0-4358-4a25-8b93-914675f6b9ff

England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has said the country is now trying to delay the spread of the virus rather than trying to contain it.

Speaking to the government’s Health and Social Care Committee on Thursday, Whitty said trying to contain the spread of the virus was “pretty optimistic” now and that there was community transmission taking place in Britain.

Chances of containing the outbreak globally are “slim to zero”, he added.

----------------------------

... “We will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period, if it follows a trajectory we think it’s likely to”

England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty on the possible impact of coronavirus on the NHS

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1235501769007992832

------------------------------

... British hospitals may currently not have enough respiratory resources to deal with absolutely everyone who would need to be treated in hospital, according to a senior executive.

The health service was coping well at the moment, said Neil Dixon, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, whose members provide services to the National Health Service.

... “Of course there may come a point where the level of infection becomes so great that the NHS and doctors and so on will have to make quite difficult choices about who to treat and when to treat them.

----------------------------

UK Elderly Advised To Stay Away From Crowds

People who are elderly or have pre-existing conditions could be advised to stay away from crowds as the outbreak progresses, the chief medical officer Chris Whitty has told MPs.

-----------------------------

Empty Shelves in UK Amid Stockpiling Fears
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51747782

Photographs of empty supermarket shelves have been doing the rounds in the UK, amid fears of panic-buying because of coronavirus.

Large packs of water, pasta, bread and hand sanitiser gels have been pictured missing from shop shelves.

------------------------------

Germany Says Total Number of Cases Rises to 349
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

The total number of coronavirus cases has risen in Germany to 349, according to the Robert Koch health institute. North Rhine-Westphalia remains the worst affected region with 175 cases.

... The German government has given pharmacies permission to mix their own disinfectant solutions with industrial alcohol, in an attempt to keep up with the unprecedented demand.

--------------------------

South Korea Reports an Additional 322 Cases of Coronavirus

South Korea reported 322 more cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, Reuters reported, taking the total tally to 6,088 after 438 new cases were reported earlier in the day.

---------------------------

South Korea Declares New 'Special Care Zone' as Coronavirus Spreads
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20S04O

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea declared a "special care zone" on Thursday around a second city hit hard by the coronavirus and the U.S. military confirmed two new cases among relatives of its troops in the country, which is battling the biggest outbreak outside China.

The government declared a "special care zone" around Gyeongsan, a city of about 275,000 people 250 km (150 miles) southeast of Seoul, promising extra resources such as face masks.

South Korea also said it was banning the export of face masks, stepping up their production and would ration them to limit individual purchases to two a week, in a bid to ease shortages and curb hoarding.

https://mobile.twitter.com/koryodynasty/status/1235383491379867649

---------------------------

Nearly 20% of Japan Nursing Care Providers Out of Masks: Survey
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51747782/page/2

Nearly 20% of nursing care service providers in Japan have run out of face masks, said the Japan Times quoting a recent survey by a labour union.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had earlier said the government is considering supplying its stockpiled face masks to medical institutions that are facing shortages.

-----------------------------

Iran Checkpoints to Limit Travel Between Major Cities
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-live-updates-italy-germany-pandemic-europe-uk-us-australia-india-update-latest-news

Iranian authorities are to begin manning checkpoints to limit travel between major cities due to the coronavirus in a country which is now one of the epicentre of the outbreak.

The country has also moved to close schools and universities until the end of the Iranian calendar year on march 20 because of coronavirus.

----------------------------------

All Mosques and Churches Closed in Area of Bethlehem Near Hotel
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-live-updates-italy-germany-pandemic-europe-uk-us-australia-india-update-latest-news

Following a suspected case of coronavirus at a hotel in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, the Palestinian Ministry of Health has closed all mosques and churches in the area.

According to Wafa, the official Palestinian Authority news service, a medical state of emergency had been declared in the holy city, home to the Church of Nativity, a popular pilgrimage site revered as the birthplace of Jesus.

-----------------------------

French plans to move at some point from ‘stage 2’ of its response to the new coronavirus to ‘stage 3’ are to be discussed today at a meeting of advisors convened by France’s president, Emmanuel Macron.

Le Monde has details of the discussions in anticipation of stage 3, when the outbreak spreads to the entire country and schools and other institutions may close.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 01:54:44 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1960 on: March 05, 2020, 12:41:34 PM »
How Should You Explain the Virus To Your Kids?
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51747782

"Will I get sick?"

"Will my school close?"

If your children have asked you any of these questions, here's some advice on how you can keep them up to date, without terrifying them:

- Talk to them about things they can control, such as disposing of tissues and personal hygiene, rather than those they can't

- Give information about the virus, but once the explanation is over, the conversation should move on to something that "isn't threatening"

- Use simple language and allow them to ask lots of questions
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1961 on: March 05, 2020, 01:54:55 PM »
Continued a bit....leaving out some of the things talked here and elsewhere.

While CoV-2 isn't the only virus capable of inducing viral pneumonia, that is, a lysis of epithelial cells with associated leaks of bodily fluids into lungs, it is the most severe widely spread causative agent. Being a member of Coronaviruses, it can and will surf on the cell membranes until it finds it's entry point to the cells on mucous membranes likely undetected by the immune system. Normally, the body learns to attack these sorts of viruses early with immunization. Being a completely new virus on widespread areas CoV-2 gets past most of early defenses in a body. The widespread breach of the membrane by the virus generates a general alarm of the immune system, which may result in a septic shock and death. Pneumonias are usually more hazardous to older people, their body has fought against so many respiratory infections the response of their immune system is large.
Treatment of viral pneumonias is largely symptomatic in later stages, some antivirals work on specific viruses, the death rates have been steadily dropping f.e. in influenza-induced viral pneumonia.

However, reports of successfully treating CoV-2 pneumonia with antivirals are few. Pneumonic patients may find it easier to lie face down, however air ducts must not be obstructed, as one effect of the destruction of lung epithelial cells is reduced air intake. On mild cases, pain killers off the shelf and medication dropping the patients temperature, are possibly sufficient. Survivors state the 2-3 weeks it takes for a properly functioning immune system to combat this have been "the worst of their life". To be sure of not passing this spreading it's probably wise to self-isolate even after getting out of the sickbed, there's been talk of relapses back to sickness.

Nasty stuff. Expecting pretty sickly spring and summer here as well, though there's been (yet) only 7 confirmed cases in the country.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 02:06:34 PM by Pmt111500 »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1962 on: March 05, 2020, 02:11:37 PM »
Thanks for the write up PMT. I find everything you wrote consistent with the truth. That is very difficult given all the misinformation.

Quote
Some doctor here in Finland noted a difference in symptoms to many other infectious respiratory diseases. Only very few patients have a runny nose, so if you have a runny nose in mild fever, it's probably not this one.

That's an astute observation! I hope someone can study cases and quantify it a bit.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1963 on: March 05, 2020, 02:19:01 PM »
Dangerous thought:

There are two strains, one mild and one strong. I wonder, does immunity to the mild one infer immunity from the strong one? If so, it may be worth being exposed to the mild one as a form of vaccine? Maybe even introduce it through a different route than the lungs. This may trigger an immune response with even fewer side effects.

Of course, this is a bit crazy because of all the possible changes that may happen with each copying, but if the mild one is mild enough and the immunity good enough... it might be worthed.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1964 on: March 05, 2020, 02:25:04 PM »
Dangerous thought:

There are two strains, one mild and one strong. I wonder, does immunity to the mild one infer immunity from the strong one? If so, it may be worth being exposed to the mild one as a form of vaccine? Maybe even introduce it through a different route than the lungs. This may trigger an immune response with even fewer side effects.

Of course, this is a bit crazy because of all the possible changes that may happen with each copying, but if the mild one is mild enough and the immunity good enough... it might be worthed.

That is actually a strong possibility, as that is precisely how immunization works.  Whether it is sufficient in this case remains to be seen.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1965 on: March 05, 2020, 02:36:06 PM »
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politicians-are-the-last-people-americans-want-fighting-coronavirus/

Quote
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention wants you to stay home if you’re sick, stop buying face masks if you’re healthy and (for God’s sake) wash your hands. But it’s hard for the agency to communicate that relatively measured coronavirus prevention plan to the public when the burgeoning epidemic is becoming increasingly politicized.

From President Trump’s claims that criticism of his administration’s response to the outbreak represented a Democratic hoax, to his more recent use of the virus as an anti-immigration rallying cry, the public health response is in danger of getting buried under a pile of misleading statements, fact checks and fear. ...

Boris has been doing it right. Let the Chief Medical Officer do most of the talking. Tell people to wash their hands, chair the emergency committee himself, and push through the emergency legislation that committee says is going to be necessary.

The US is probably not as badly off as Trump's antics would indicate, because the governers do seem to be doing it right at state level.

In the UK, the authorities are now rating the chance of containment at slim to none, and have moved into control measures to spread out the epidemic peak and to delay it into spring and summer. A couple of cases were discovered in a hospital where the cases were being treated for something else, which I read as a really bad sign. Its not quite as bad as being first discovered in a doctor or a death in hospital, but hospital transmission was happening in the early stages of the Chinese, Italian, and Iranian outbreaks and I suspect was key to their early spread.

We had a big jump in cases (due to a superspreader plus lots of their contacts testing positive) and it does look like a matter of time before one of the traveller from a hotspot is a superspreader that slips through containment, if it hasn't already happened.

While a runny nose might be a sign you don't have it, it might also be a sign you are a superspreader, so its still important take hygiene seriously, particularly when there is reason to believe you could have caught covid as well as a cold.

Wash your hands.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1966 on: March 05, 2020, 02:40:48 PM »
German Hamsterkäufer in a nutshell.

Translates to: Don't tell me about Thunberg. She is completely hysterical, irrational, idiotic.



Buys 20 packages of toilet paper in light of COVID-19.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1967 on: March 05, 2020, 02:41:19 PM »
Quote
Some doctor here in Finland noted a difference in symptoms to many other infectious respiratory diseases. Only very few patients have a runny nose, so if you have a runny nose in mild fever, it's probably not this one.

That's an astute observation! I hope someone can study cases and quantify it a bit.

That difference is not new. It was already remarked early on as a way to discern that it is probably not CoVid (somewhere on the first 20 or 25 pages cba to look for it).

Basically CoVid and influenza use different types of receptors:

ACE2 has direct effects on cardiac function,a and is expressed predominantly in vascular endothelial cells of the heart and the kidneys.[8] ACE2 is not sensitive to the ACE inhibitor drugs used to treat hypertension. [9]

ACE2 receptors have been shown to be the entry point into human cells for some coronaviruses, including the SARS virus[10]. A number of studies have identified that the entry point is the same for SARS-CoV-2,[11] the virus that causes COVID-19[

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2


Avian influenza virus strains preferentially bind to sialic acids attached to galactose via an alpha(2,3) linkage. This is the major sialic acid on epithelial cells of the duck gut. In contrast, human influenza virus strains preferentially attach to sialic acids attached to galactose by an alpha(2,6) linkage. This is the major type of sialic acid present on human respiratory epithelial cells. Alpha(2,3) linked sialic acids are found on ciliated epithelial cells, which are a minor population within the human respiratory tract, and also on some epithelial cells in the lower tract.

http://www.virology.ws/2009/05/05/influenza-virus-attachment-to-cells-role-of-different-sialic-acids/



Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1968 on: March 05, 2020, 02:45:49 PM »
Treatment of viral pneumonias is largely symptomatic in later stages, some antivirals work on specific viruses, the death rates have been steadily dropping f.e. in influenza-induced viral pneumonia.

However, reports of successfully treating CoV-2 pneumonia with antivirals are few. 

On that note,

Favilavir approved as experimental coronavirus drug
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-favilavir-testing-approval/

The National Medical Products Administration approval document said the company met requirements to manufacture the generic version of Favipiravir but requires to further work on pharmacy and clinical pharmacology research.

Favilavir is approved for marketing in the treatment of influenza and is one of the three drugs showing efficacy against the coronavirus in human trials.
...
The remaining two drugs showing efficacy are anti-malaria drug chloroquine and Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir.
____________________________________________________

And:

Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
_______________________________________________________
And:

Anti-malaria drug being tested for efficacy against COVID-19
https://www.zmescience.com/science/anti-malaria-covid-19-0523/

"Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that chloroquine phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

The experts suggested the drug be included in the next version of the treatment guidelines and applied in wider clinical trials as soon as possible, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), said at a press conference."
___________________________________________________________

[Expert consensus on chloroquine phosphate for the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia]
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32075365

"At the end of December 2019, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, and has quickly spread to all provinces in China and 26 other countries around the world, leading to a serious situation for epidemic prevention. So far, there is still no specific medicine. Previous studies have shown that chloroquine phosphate (chloroquine) had a wide range of antiviral effects, including anti-coronavirus. Here we found that treating the patients diagnosed as novel coronavirus pneumonia with chloroquine might improve the success rate of treatment, shorten hospital stay and improve patient outcome. In order to guide and regulate the use of chloroquine in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia, the multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia developed this expert consensus after extensive discussion. It recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, 500mg twice per day for 10 days for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia and without contraindications to chloroquine."

That's 10 grams of medicine per person per course of treatment.  Everyone who gets significantly ill from this virus will need a course of treatment with this or similarly effective drug. 



Registered clinical trials for coronavirus interventions:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=coronavirus&age_v=&gndr=&type=Intr&rslt=&Search=Apply
 

Since the epidemic has a doubling time in the ballpark of a week, we'll virtually all be exposed many months before a vaccine can be made for the masses. 

Antiviral medication testing and production are critical, but not emphasized.  Any nation could start mass-producing chloroquine for emergency use.  It's already proven safe, and effective for certain diseases. 
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 03:44:41 PM by SteveMDFP »

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1969 on: March 05, 2020, 03:56:17 PM »
Thanks Archimid, the couple of courses on immunology and the one partly on viruses are somewhat in memory, still. Thanks SteveMDFP for following the antiviral approach.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1970 on: March 05, 2020, 04:18:33 PM »
last 4 days .. new cases in China .. up 1% , new cases ex-China .. up 100% .

We are approaching 12 times the number of cases of the SARS pandemic and already 4 times the deaths . In more countries than SARS reached . But not a pandemic . Who does the WHO represent ?   Not me .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1971 on: March 05, 2020, 04:34:31 PM »

Since the epidemic has a doubling time in the ballpark of a week, we'll virtually all be exposed many months before a vaccine can be made for the masses. 

Well, that is not the experience of China - extreme quarantine seems
to work...


Great research otherwise, thank you!


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1972 on: March 05, 2020, 04:51:09 PM »
The doubling time for reported cases outside China (where presumably most of us are) continues to be about 3 days. And of course we know that there are many, many unreported cases in places like Indonesia, India, and the US.

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1973 on: March 05, 2020, 04:52:58 PM »

Since the epidemic has a doubling time in the ballpark of a week, we'll virtually all be exposed many months before a vaccine can be made for the masses. 

Well, that is not the experience of China - extreme quarantine seems
to work...


Great research otherwise, thank you!
Yes, draconian measures taken by a ruthless dictatorship regime work.
Draconian measures are not applied in democratic, and somehow undisciplined countries like Spain and Italy until their health systems crumble down. Then I guess even Spain will pull the military to the streets.

What is a pity is that nobody valued to be prepared (not the same as panicked) and societies have been always two steps behind the problem.
Fucking MSM been saying until last week that this is not more than a flu. Suddenly many news explaining this is not the flu!
There are many similarities with the climate problem here.

Well.  I guess sometimes having a psychopathic Supreme Leader helps.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1974 on: March 05, 2020, 04:57:01 PM »
I think the WHO will declare it a pandemic when they're certain (or it's very likely) that the whole population will get in contact with the virus.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1975 on: March 05, 2020, 05:01:09 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1976 on: March 05, 2020, 05:12:34 PM »
Not sure this resource has been mentioned yet, re. the discussion of different strains. Too many posts to follow them all.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?

The site provides an interactive phylogenetic tree which can be filtered by date/location.

"This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of HCoV-19 viruses from the ongoing novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. All samples are still closely related with few mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections."

As I write, 166 different genomes have been sampled ...

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1977 on: March 05, 2020, 05:12:48 PM »
The doubling time for reported cases outside China (where presumably most of us are) continues to be about 3 days. And of course we know that there are many, many unreported cases in places like Indonesia, India, and the US.



Iran underreported of course too

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1978 on: March 05, 2020, 05:18:13 PM »
Thanks Bernard, that's helpful.

---------------------------------

Meanwhile, from crazyland ...

Donald Trump has said that, as a result of a hunch, he didn’t believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%.

“I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favourite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.

“Now, this is just my hunch,” Trump began, before continuing: “Based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild – they’ll get better very rapidly, they don’t even see a doctor, they don’t even call a doctor.”

He continued: “You never hear about those people, so you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population, in terms of this corona flu, and/or virus. So you just can’t do that.”

-----------------------------------

Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."

Astoundingly irresponsible.

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235409660104015873

Video at link



“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1979 on: March 05, 2020, 05:29:25 PM »
Thanks Bernard, that's helpful.

---------------------------------

Meanwhile, from crazyland ...

Donald Trump has said that, as a result of a hunch, he didn’t believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%.

“I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favourite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.

“Now, this is just my hunch,” Trump began, before continuing: “Based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild – they’ll get better very rapidly, they don’t even see a doctor, they don’t even call a doctor.”

He continued: “You never hear about those people, so you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population, in terms of this corona flu, and/or virus. So you just can’t do that.”

-----------------------------------

Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."

Astoundingly irresponsible.

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235409660104015873

Video at link



This will go one of two ways.

Scenario 1 -  The coronovirus outbreak becomes widespread in America, but most cases remain mild.  Trump reaffirms that he was right all along and come November we get 4 more years of him.

Scenario 2 - The coronovirus outbreak becomes widespread in America, but the mortality rate remains at the level of the rest of the world, people start to wake up to how crazy trump is and he gets voted out of office in November.

There is no scenario where the outbreak does not become widespread here based on everything we know and have seen thus far.

wehappyfew

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1980 on: March 05, 2020, 05:36:21 PM »
Scenario 3:

There's a chance that warmer weather, plus social distancing, canceling large gatherings, etc will knock down the R0 below 1 temporarily.

Then it comes roaring back in the fall from thousands of loci instead of one single market in China.

Worst case, it doesn't get bad until after the election Nov 3, Trump gets re-elected (I think I threw up a little in my mouth).

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1981 on: March 05, 2020, 05:40:19 PM »
KUDOS to this guy!


Jurgen Klopp's response when asked about Coronavirus


Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderedByWords/comments/fdtyqn/jurgen_klopps_response_when_asked_about/

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1982 on: March 05, 2020, 05:44:17 PM »
 Scenario 4 .. Trump ( wisely ) declares election unsafe and awards himself 4 more years ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1983 on: March 05, 2020, 05:51:02 PM »
I think the WHO will declare it a pandemic when they're certain (or it's very likely) that the whole population will get in contact with the virus.
I think they will do it July 15 when the pandemic bonds expire.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1984 on: March 05, 2020, 06:08:40 PM »
I think the WHO will declare it a pandemic when they're certain (or it's very likely) that the whole population will get in contact with the virus.
I think they will do it July 15 when the pandemic bonds expire.

What's a Pandemic Bond?

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1985 on: March 05, 2020, 06:11:05 PM »
Scenario 4 .. Trump ( wisely ) declares election unsafe and awards himself 4 more years ..

While i believe that this would never happen and if it did, you would see a massive revolt in this country.

I can't firmly say that the chances of this happening are 0%.  You just never know with this guy.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1986 on: March 05, 2020, 06:16:52 PM »
Scenario 3:

There's a chance that warmer weather, plus social distancing, canceling large gatherings, etc will knock down the R0 below 1 temporarily.

Then it comes roaring back in the fall from thousands of loci instead of one single market in China.

Worst case, it doesn't get bad until after the election Nov 3, Trump gets re-elected (I think I threw up a little in my mouth).

What do you think this is, the Spanish flu? j/k I think this is exactly what happens.

I think right now it all depends on winter. There are at least a few more weeks of Corona weather, by average. What ends the infection in the NH is spring. But here is the catch. A chance for WACCY weather to prolong "winter" into May. then as we lap the sun and winter comes, it is endemic. We now have to deal with an invisible killer flu.

We will know because I believe the disease will make the jump to the South hemisphere very soon.

Climate control makes things more difficult. In many places that humans inhabit the ideal temperature is 20C-24C. If the seasons do not affect this then it is most certainly scenario 2.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1987 on: March 05, 2020, 06:18:07 PM »
What's a Pandemic Bond?

Here you go Sebastian:

Quote
The Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility (abbreviated as PEF, and also known as Pandemic Bonds) is a financing mechanism to assist with the management of a pandemic outbreak. It is provided by the World Bank, which raised the majority of the money by issuing bonds, which can be seen as a type of catastrophe bond. Additional money is provided by donations.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Emergency_Financing_Facility

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1988 on: March 05, 2020, 06:29:04 PM »
ptm, and I'm sure many others beyond Iran.

vox, later in that fox interview Trump basically  encouraged people to go to work even though they show symptoms...he really is trying to kill us all

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/dangerous-lies-experts-slam-trump-suggestion-coronavirus-patients-go-to-work-and-get-better/
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 06:40:22 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1989 on: March 05, 2020, 06:30:44 PM »
Any hint on whether China turned the economy back on too soon? Is there a likelihood that the cases will start soaring again when the incubation period passes?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1990 on: March 05, 2020, 06:39:30 PM »
Sadly the first death in the U.K. has been confirmed . The patient has been in and out of hospital recently and only last night was diagnosed with COVID-19 . God help all those involved in his recent care . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1991 on: March 05, 2020, 06:47:13 PM »
Iranian General: Coronavirus Is A Manmade Bio-Weapon
https://summit.news/2020/03/05/iranian-general-coronavirus-is-a-manmade-bio-weapon/
Quote
Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, an Iranian officer in charge of the country’s Civil Defense Organization claimed Tuesday that “A study of the consequences of the virus in terms of tolls or the extent of the epidemic and the type of media propaganda over this issue that is aimed at increasing fear and panic among people strengthens the speculations that a biological attack has been launched against China and Iran with economic goals.”
Strongly hinting that the the virus is a bio-attack by the US, Jalali told Iranian Fars News Agency, state media, that he is seeking “laboratorial investigations and comparing the genome of the primary virus and the new genomes” to confirm his theory.
So a nutcase in Iran is accusing the Great Satan of making the Satan Bug. The scary thing is, he is a high-ranking nutcase. Could this be an excuse for Iran to declare war on the United States?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1992 on: March 05, 2020, 07:03:51 PM »
Look on the bright side.
Trump has huge rally's to boost his fragile ego.
He is telling his base there is no threat from the virus.
MAGA supporters  will all turn up at his rally's and proudly take no  precautions.
Darwin fixes Trump .
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 07:35:44 PM by KiwiGriff »
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

A-Team

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1993 on: March 05, 2020, 07:18:03 PM »
Bruce and others asked about how genomes of different isolates of covid-19 differ in their RNA sequence after mutations during multiple rounds of replication in humans.

Recall the viral genome here is a single stranded, single segment, positive sense 28 kb RNA complete with host-provided 5' cap and 3' poly-A, in effect a messenger RNA ready for ribosomal translation to viral proteins (and poly-proteins) in an affected host cell.

That's all compiled for us daily at a genome browser called NextStrain, a project of the Trevor Bedford lab in Seattle which today shows an unrooted phylogenetic tree for the 166 different genomes currently posted at GenBank (or GISAID). It's interactive, stable, easy to use and provides all the mol bio basics as you mouse-over the display.

https://nextstrain.org
https://twitter.com/trvrb

To date, all have been point mutations (single nucleotide changes). These may or may not change an amino acid in its encoded protein (non-synonomous vs synonymous or silent). It's difficult to determine from sparse clinical data or bioinformatics alone or together what the practical effect if any that a mutational change brings about, even a change in the much-studied spike protein homotrimer central to the ACE2-based entry into the cell.

Taking the next step in evaluating spike mutations involves the stalwart online bioinformatic tools tBlastn at NCBI GenBank nucleotides and xray crystallographic structure modelling at PDB and SwissProt

https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi
https://www.rcsb.org/

No indels (insertions or deletions) have been reported to date relative to the oldest Wuhan sequence though these are fairly common in covid-19 counterparts in other species, in the coronovirus family overall, indeed in vertebrate viruses in general.

No recombination events as been observed yet either. Coronaviruses don't pass through DNA via a reverse transcriptase as part of their life cycle so what does this even mean? It means when someone like a health care worker is simultaneously infected by two or more strains of covid-19, the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) that replicates the viral genome may switch templates ('copy choice') part way through the transcription cycle creating a hybrid genome from the two strains. In short, this is not recombination as defined for diploid DNA genomes but similar to it in its gene shuffling effect (after several rounds).
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 03:06:14 AM by A-Team »

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1994 on: March 05, 2020, 07:20:13 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1995 on: March 05, 2020, 07:22:34 PM »
Iranian General: Coronavirus Is A Manmade Bio-Weapon
https://summit.news/2020/03/05/iranian-general-coronavirus-is-a-manmade-bio-weapon/
Quote
Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, an Iranian officer in charge of the country’s Civil Defense Organization claimed Tuesday that “A study of the consequences of the virus in terms of tolls or the extent of the epidemic and the type of media propaganda over this issue that is aimed at increasing fear and panic among people strengthens the speculations that a biological attack has been launched against China and Iran with economic goals.”
Strongly hinting that the the virus is a bio-attack by the US, Jalali told Iranian Fars News Agency, state media, that he is seeking “laboratorial investigations and comparing the genome of the primary virus and the new genomes” to confirm his theory.
So a nutcase in Iran is accusing the Great Satan of making the Satan Bug. The scary thing is, he is a high-ranking nutcase. Could this be an excuse for Iran to declare war on the United States?

There is a story circulating that there is only one lab in China that is working with that kind of virusses, like the coronavirusses, SARS, MERS.....And that's in Wuhan, is that correct ?

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1996 on: March 05, 2020, 07:24:43 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?
No you may not, not on this thread, sorry.
Blumenkraft, please try to avoid picking up political fights on this thread. I get your sensitivities but this is derailing.
There is always the off-topic off-topic thread for those who wish to take it elsewhere.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1997 on: March 05, 2020, 07:34:20 PM »
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?

Actually, for how i see it, a majority of Chinese people don't hate their government as much as half of Americans hate their president. I wouldn't say they necessarily love their government, but they don't do this tribalism thing, there is way less bullshit and fake news, there is a sense of unity and a common goal.

My ideal regime is no regime but a democratic (liquid, social democracy) government that fights climate change, inequality, racism, and fake news.

Edit, Sorry, Oren. I typed that before i saw your post. But you are right. I recede now.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1998 on: March 05, 2020, 07:40:14 PM »
Iranian General: Coronavirus Is A Manmade Bio-Weapon

So a nutcase in Iran is accusing the Great Satan of making the Satan Bug. The scary thing is, he is a high-ranking nutcase. Could this be an excuse for Iran to declare war on the United States?

Well, if it's a Bio weapon, the engineer was really incompetent. Why would you make a weapon that puts at risk the life of most of the world leader ? How old is Putin, Trump, Xi, Erdogan, Merkel, el-Sisi, Ram Nath Konvid, Rouhani, ... all above 60. A Bio weapon should kill fast and disappear, not spread all over the places.

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1999 on: March 05, 2020, 07:40:58 PM »
Coronavirus Far More Likely Than SARS to Bond to Human Cells Due to HIV-Like Mutation, Scientists Say
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say
https://newsroom.uw.edu/news/covid-19-coronavirus-spike-holds-infectivity-details

Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola

Finding may help scientists understand how the infection spreads and where it came from

... The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.

Scientists showed that Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) entered the human body by binding with a receptor protein called ACE2 on a cell membrane. And some early studies suggested that the new coronavirus, which shares about 80 per cent of the genetic structure of Sars, might follow a similar path.

But the ACE2 protein does not exist in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the Sars outbreak of 2002-03

Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.

When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

“This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV [the new coronavirus] may be significantly different from the Sars coronavirus in the infection pathway,” the scientists said in a paper published this month on Chinaxiv.org, a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences to release scientific research papers before they have been peer-reviewed.

“This virus may use the packing mechanisms of other viruses such as HIV.”

According to the study, the mutation can generate a structure known as a cleavage site in the new coronavirus’ spike protein.

The virus uses the outreaching spike protein to hook on to the host cell, but normally this protein is inactive. The cleavage site structure’s job is to trick the human furin protein, so it will cut and activate the spike protein and cause a “direct fusion” of the viral and cellular membranes.

Compared to the Sars’ way of entry, this binding method is “100 to 1,000 times” as efficient, according to the study.

In a follow-up study, a research team led by Professor Li Hua from Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, Hubei province, confirmed Ruan’s findings.

This could be “the reason why SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than other coronaviruses”, Li wrote in a paper released on Chinarxiv on Sunday.

Meanwhile, a study by French scientist Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research on February 10, also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses.

The mutation could not be found in Sars, Mers or Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes, it said.

... Chinese researchers said drugs targeting the furin enzyme could have the potential to hinder the virus’ replication in the human body. These include “a series of HIV-1 therapeutic drugs such as Indinavir, Tenofovir Alafenamide, Tenofovir Disoproxil and Dolutegravir and hepatitis C therapeutic drugs including Boceprevir and Telaprevir”, according to Li’s study.

This suggestion is in line with reports by some Chinese doctors who self-administered HIV drugs after testing positive for the new coronavirus, but there is as yet no clinical evidence to support the theory.

... The furin enzyme mutation, which Ruan’s team described as an “unexpected insertion”, could come from many possible sources such as a coronavirus found in rats or even a species of avian flu.

---------------------

Structure, function and antigenicity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.956581v1

Summary

The recent emergence of a novel coronavirus associated with an ongoing outbreak of pneumonia (Covid-2019) resulted in infections of more than 72,000 people and claimed over 1,800 lives. Coronavirus spike (S) glycoprotein trimers promote entry into cells and are the main target of the humoral immune response.

We show here that SARS-CoV-2 S mediates entry in VeroE6 cells and in BHK cells transiently transfected with human ACE2, establishing ACE2 as a functional receptor for this novel coronavirus. We further demonstrate that the receptor-binding domains of SARS-CoV-2 S and SARS-CoV S bind with similar affinities to human ACE2, which correlates with the efficient spread of SARS-CoV-2 among humans.

We found that the SARS-CoV-2 S glycoprotein harbors a furin cleavage site at the boundary between the S1/S2 subunits, which is processed during biogenesis and sets this virus apart from SARS-CoV and other SARS-related CoVs.

We determined a cryo-electron microscopy structure of the SARS-CoV-2 S ectodomain trimer, demonstrating spontaneous opening of the receptor-binding domain, and providing a blueprint for the design of vaccines and inhibitors of viral entry.

Finally, we demonstrate that SARS-CoV S murine polyclonal sera potently inhibited SARS-CoV-2 S-mediated entry into target cells, thereby indicating that cross-neutralizing antibodies targeting conserved S epitopes can be elicited upon vaccination.

A-Team,  Could you comment on this paper and how furin and Ace-2 may make this Coronavirus different than SARS.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 07:47:08 PM by Bruce Steele »