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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 541907 times)

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2000 on: March 05, 2020, 07:48:07 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?
No you may not, not on this thread, sorry.
Blumenkraft, please try to avoid picking up political fights on this thread. I get your sensitivities but this is derailing.
There is always the off-topic off-topic thread for those who wish to take it elsewhere.
Bk opens his mouth every time I post an opinion, so he's just trolling me.
Sure I quit the politics here. But politics play a big role how governments (mis)manage the crisis. It is a conflict between halting production and society or halting the virus. The Chinese chose wisely, to quit economy for a hiatus, but also because they can, being an authoritarian regime. That's all

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2001 on: March 05, 2020, 07:56:50 PM »
China is 9,6 million square km in size. In these 9,6 million square km there is one lab, at a few hundred meters of the foodmarket.  Does this makes me a conspiracy theorist ? Or is it suspicious. https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2002 on: March 05, 2020, 08:16:04 PM »
Alexander, I think you are asking a question that no one can answer. The question itself is purely speculative  Location implying more than coincidence . No real paper to quote , no real evidence.
You are shooting from the hip and it is diversionary and pointless.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2003 on: March 05, 2020, 08:21:15 PM »
The article tells that the government admids that it escaped ? Than what is that Iranian government telling, probably the country is imploding.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2004 on: March 05, 2020, 08:44:29 PM »
Does this makes me a conspiracy theorist ?
Yes, it does.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2005 on: March 05, 2020, 08:44:58 PM »
China is 9,6 million square km in size. In these 9,6 million square km there is one lab, at a few hundred meters of the foodmarket.  Does this makes me a conspiracy theorist ? Or is it suspicious. https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

It makes you a kook IMHO. Be sure to adjust your foil cap.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 08:53:23 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2006 on: March 05, 2020, 08:46:39 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?
No you may not, not on this thread, sorry.
Blumenkraft, please try to avoid picking up political fights on this thread. I get your sensitivities but this is derailing.
There is always the off-topic off-topic thread for those who wish to take it elsewhere.
Bk opens his mouth every time I post an opinion, so he's just trolling me.
Sure I quit the politics here. But politics play a big role how governments (mis)manage the crisis. It is a conflict between halting production and society or halting the virus. The Chinese chose wisely, to quit economy for a hiatus, but also because they can, being an authoritarian regime. That's all

You posted provocative stuff. Probably got the response you were looking for. Please stay on topic or quit posting comments.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2007 on: March 05, 2020, 09:02:35 PM »
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/chinese-intelligence-coronavirus/?collection-id=238235

"...One of the most prominent (and unfounded) theories alleged that coronavirus was created in a government lab as a bioweapon and then released on the people of China. There is no evidence to support this claim and several researchers have disputed this theory as illogical...

...This story was originally published on r/NoSleep, a section of Reddit dedicated to scary fiction stories..."

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab

There’s a rumor the coronavirus started in a Chinese lab. And a scientific consensus it didn’t.

Quote
virologists who’ve parsed the genome and infectious disease experts who study coronaviruses say they have enough evidence the virus is brand new and came from nature. A large group of them, citing genome analyses from multiple countries, recently affirmed in The Lancet that the virus originated in wildlife.

The emergence of the virus in the same city as China’s only level 4 biosafety lab, it turns out, is pure coincidence.

A coincidence is not proof of a conspiracy (except on Faux 'News' and some social media sites...including alex's posts on this forum apparently :/ )


(Again, why is someone who constantly tries to spread dangerous outright lies allowed to post on this scientific forum? Inquiring minds want to know!  :) )
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 09:08:17 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2008 on: March 05, 2020, 09:18:08 PM »
At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2009 on: March 05, 2020, 09:50:53 PM »
There is an article in "LeMonde" in french comparing the flu and COVID19.
https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/03/05/quelles-differences-entre-le-coronavirus-et-la-grippe_6031939_3244.html

In it they explain how the death rate is defined. They know how many people died and do a statistical analysis of how many people have antibodies against the virus.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2010 on: March 05, 2020, 09:51:10 PM »
Quote
...there is currently no evidence of coronaviruses infecting animals other than mammals and birds...

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-bats-snakes-pangolins
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2011 on: March 05, 2020, 09:57:39 PM »
At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

You ain't right...in the haid.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2012 on: March 05, 2020, 10:03:41 PM »
At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

You ain't right...in the haid.

 Go hate Trump a little bit more Shared humanity. The only reason why half of your country is not freezing to dead in winter is because of fossil feuls. And that you use a little bit less coal, is because you frack the shit out of your land. Because your wind turbines and solar panels, that's not even enough to keep up with growth. Wake up fool.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2013 on: March 05, 2020, 10:25:51 PM »
Than what is that Iranian government telling, probably the country is imploding.
Ramezan Pourghassem, head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ground forces counter-intelligence branch, is said to be dead due to the coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1235078617849159680

(It is difficult to give a good source, but the info was in a report by Cecilia Uddén on Swedish Radio.)

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2014 on: March 05, 2020, 10:28:13 PM »
At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

You ain't right...in the haid.

 Go hate Trump a little bit more Shared humanity. The only reason why half of your country is not freezing to dead in winter is because of fossil feuls. And that you use a little bit less coal, is because you frack the shit out of your land. Because your wind turbines and solar panels, that's not even enough to keep up with growth. Wake up fool.

Is thread about COVID-19 or energy consumption and politics?   Let's try to keep this discuss about this virus.

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2015 on: March 05, 2020, 10:34:52 PM »
NZ records forth case and first person to person transfer.
Hoping winter will kill this off is unfounded optimism.
We don't have any evidence it is not able to be transferred in warmer weather  and it is already here in the southern hemisphere  as we wind down into winter.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2016 on: March 05, 2020, 10:38:23 PM »
It seems the two variant thing might not be relevant.

Response to “On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2”


http://virological.org/t/response-to-on-the-origin-and-continuing-evolution-of-sars-cov-2/418

Quote
An analysis of genetic data from the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak was recently published in the journal National Science Review by Tang et al. (2020) 35. Two of the key claims made by this paper appear to have been reached by misunderstanding and over-interpretation of the SARS-CoV-2 data, with an additional analysis suffering from methodological limitations.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2017 on: March 05, 2020, 11:10:13 PM »
So what do we know of our dance with Covid-19 in the UK today?

Prof Witty, in his Govt. briefing this a.m. confirmed that our best 'modellers' (he insist probably the best in the Planet?) still go with 80% total infection before 'herd immunity' allows the Virus to peter out.

He tells us if we do not s-l-o-w the rate of infection 'Peak infection' could occur over a 3 week window (with the bulk of infections occurring over that time?)

He challenged, via a number of caveats, W.H.O.'s CFR of 3.4 insisting his 1% (or less?) CFR more representative

What do we do?

Frequent hand cleansing esp. when out and about

Avoid 'ill' people keeping at least 3 ft clear of them, this number varies between '3ft' (from our C.M.O. & W.H.O.), 6ft from the Wuhan Whistleblower Dr & 9ft from the U.S. 'Coronavirus prof.'

My take?

'Le Strange's Vault' in 'Gringotts Bank' (when the 'silverware starts to 'double'?) has been going on now a while in the UK & that there are now a significant No. of folk, currently 'asymptomatic', (but spreading virus?) walking around?

I think that we need act as though it's 'HERE, NOW!' and take the precautions advised to try and s-l-o-w the outbreak down and s-p-r-e-a-d , as wide as possible, the period carrying 'Peak Infection'??

If we don't want the health system to fall over for a short period of time then we must try our best (or accept the deaths a functioning health Service would have saved, if 'Functioning', and wonder if we could/should have tried harder?)

Be Well.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2020, 11:18:20 PM by Gray-Wolf »
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2018 on: March 05, 2020, 11:11:35 PM »
This was not “released” from a lab. I think there is a 5% chance it accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan and a 95% chance this is natural but there is absolutely no chance it is deliberate.
And I sure would like to know why an Iranian bigwig is accusing America of doing this on purpose. Especially as he must have had permission from the Ayatollah to do so.
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2019 on: March 05, 2020, 11:16:23 PM »
It's (finally) being noticed here in Southwest Ontario.
The wife returned with word that her favored major drug chain was out of hand sanitizer.


As recently as the evening of the 1st I was unable to find anyone at the table showing any interest at all in discussing the coming of COVIN-19, and this was a group of certifiably bright people.
Perhaps the ramifications are so scary that few are willing to even consider possible outcomes until the immediacy of the threat finally bursts through their resistance?


Hopefully panic buying/hoarding isn't forthcoming.
Terry

A-Team

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2020 on: March 05, 2020, 11:24:01 PM »
Bruce, your follow-up question to #1993 is a good one. A lot of scientists are concerned covid-19 already had, for whatever reason, multiple routes of entry into the human cell (ie beyond ACE2) at the time of release or that it can or will quickly evolve by point mutation the common additional mechanisms that other ssRNA viruses use to get into mammalian cells, either because of replicative advantage or selective pressure from partially effective drugs and immunological approaches.

The viral load in one NEJM German patient was reported as ~100,000,000 mature viroids per single ml of phlegm. At those titers, rare events happen all the time.

It is not plausible that a de novo (innovative) route will evolve by point mutation over a time span relevant to the current pandemic. There is no mechanistic counterpart in RNA viruses to MDR in hospital bacteria which arises from shared plasmids. However single point mutations in, say the spike protein, could provide resistance to multiple unrelated drugs targeting the same site.

Multiple routes of entry will vastly complicate the current Hail Mary approach of tossing already-approved or compassionate-use experimental drugs that target binding sites on either the infecting viroid or receptor proteins external to the cell surface. For example, chase through the thirty million biomedical abstracts at PubMed to see about lisinopril (200 million US Rx per year) which is known to target ACE1 so maybe perturbs the homolog ACE2; it’s been considered before but it doesn’t even bind ACE2 much less block covid-19.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/

But who knows, maybe something will work out. Pro-drugs like remdesivir don’t act on surface receptors; they have to be taken up and partly metabolized (not CYP450 here); remdesivir is a ribosyl adenylate analog that reversibly inhibits the RdRp replicase while evading proof-reading  excision. It is not specific to covid-19 or even coronaviruses; resistance has evolved previously in related RNA viruses.

Talk about rush-rush clinical trials and long-shot vaccines is primarily panic mitigation. The last thing the hospitals want right now is an ER full of worried well. The last thing FDA wants is another thalidomide. The last thing govt wants is rebuttal of the official narrative.

The current information environment is largely a mix of inapplicable older journal articles on other viruses, rushed preprints, hurry-up peer-review publications, unsupervised manuscript archives including Chinese-language only, and expert opinion from twitter blowhards..

Fortunately Bruce is asking about something we can easily check for ourselves without outside assumptions other than accuracy of posted genome sequences.

The covid-19 protease story is involved overall but not difficult, lots come into play during the life cycle. Furin is a known quantity, a human serine proprotein convertase encoded on human chr 15 whose catalytic activity may have been co-opted by covid-19 for its own activation agenda.

It’s mainly about the furin binding site on a target protein, wrongly described at wikipedia as the four residue, basic amino acid motif RXR/KR of arginines and lysine in the primary amino acid sequence. However that motif alone gives rise to numerous false positives and false negatives, so we’ll be needing to feed the covid-19 sequence to a 20-residue motif bioinformatic tool called PiTou that uses a hybrid experimental / hidden Markov chain to find furin sites much more accurately.

It's not possible to get from RXR/KR to a twenty residue motif by incremental point mutations unless the rest was already very close (as 4 to the 16th is too large with intermediate stage utility).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3281273/

Cleavage though is just downstream of the core tetrapeptide which has to be exposed for the furin enzyme to get at a valid substrate. This motif almost always will be on the surface because the 3-4 positive electric charges are about impossible to bury from entropic considerations. The exceptions are internal salt bridges (eg opsins) or an oligomeric binding partner that offsets the positive charges with negatives. However the 20 amino acid requirement really raises the ante.

In the case of the covid-19 spike protein, it is a homomeric trimer with known atomic level structure in both the inactive and activated configurations so we can check whether the RXR/KR etc is exposed. Even so, there could be steric hindrance in the intact virion. This has to be studied with cryoEM as few viruses beyond tobacco mosaic virus are crystallizable for xray structure elucidation. Proteolytic cleavage (unlike drug binding) is always irreversible because of energetics (55M water).
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 03:03:08 AM by A-Team »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2021 on: March 05, 2020, 11:40:49 PM »
I am also a little more optimistic now. We might not have another Spanish Flu, just another Hong Kong Flu. But this tiny random event, 95% likely to be the wrong bat meeting the wrong snake/pangolin/whatever and 5% a lab worker dropping a test tube, will still kill many and start the next Great Recession.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2022 on: March 06, 2020, 12:19:27 AM »
Tom, If there are 100,000,000 mature viroids in one m/l of phlegm and the body produces about one
L of phlegm a day and a person may be contagious for several days , well imagine the possibilities.
Really makes me want to avoid crowds. Nobody here remembers the Spanish Flu but I caught the Hong Kong flu and had some pneumonia as a consequence. I don’t want that ever again. I really have to go get my pneumonia shot. Bacterial pneumonia shot not viral preventative but secondary infection might be mitigated somewhat. Seems like the pneumonia shot would be in the official recommendations for the Covid-19 . I don’t know what to think about the mask isn’t necessary meme. If I have to nurse anyone through this I am gonna be fully suited up and no mask is naked.

Thanks A-Team, I will reread your post several times more but that hundred million viroids per m/l is very graphic.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 12:28:49 AM by Bruce Steele »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2023 on: March 06, 2020, 01:16:02 AM »
Here ya go, piet  :)
Quote

Ramezan Pourghassem, the head of the Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) Ground Forces counter-intelligence branch and former deputy communications minister, died in Sari’s Khomeini Hospital, while Ahmad Tuyserkani, an advisor to judiciary chief Ibrahim Raisi, has also died.

https://irannewsupdate.com/news/general/6915-iran-news-officials-dying-coronavirus-cover-20200305.html
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2024 on: March 06, 2020, 01:44:25 AM »
Bruce Steele:
Well, maybe it is spring weather making me feel happier. Maybe it is remembering how the ebola scare died down. Perhaps tomorrow I'll hear some bad news and start thinking Spanish Flu again.
My maternal grandmother was raised in a nursing home family. I heard some stories as a kid about the Spanish Flu.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2025 on: March 06, 2020, 04:43:09 AM »
South Korea reports 518 new cases, 7 more deaths
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-live-updates-china-south-korea-cases-economic-impact-asia-pacific.html

South Korea reported 518 new cases as of Friday morning, bringing its total to 6,284 cases. There were seven more deaths, bringing the country’s total to 42 deaths, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

... Hospitals in Daegu were scrambling to accommodate the surge in patients, with 2,300 people waiting to be admitted, according to a Reuters report on Thursday.

-------------------------



-------------------------



-------------------------



-------------------------

- Global cases: At least 95,270, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization

- Global deaths: At least 3,280, according to the latest figures from the WHO

------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2026 on: March 06, 2020, 05:41:04 AM »
Washington State, King County Health recommendation. Expect similar recommendations across the US over the next two weeks. Also, expect these to change rapidly as the pandemic spreads.

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/March/4-covid-recommendations.aspx

Quote
State and local officials announced today new recommendations to King County residents aimed at reducing their risk of exposure to COVID-19. We understand these actions will have a tremendous impact on the lives of people in our community. We are making these recommendations in consultation with CDC based on the best information we have currently to protect the public's health.

This is a critical moment in the growing outbreak of COVID-19 in King County and these measures can potentially impact the spread of the disease.

Public Health is recommending, but not requiring, the following steps:
People at higher risk of severe illness should stay home and away from large groups of people as much as possible, including public places with lots of people and large gatherings where there will be close contact with others. People at higher risk include:
People 60 and older
People with underlying health conditions including heart disease, lung disease, or diabetes
People who have weakened immune systems
People who are pregnant


Workplaces should enact measures that allow people who can work from home to do so. Taking these measures can help reduce the number of workers who come into contact with COVID-19 and help minimize absenteeism due to illness

If you can feasibly avoid bringing large groups of people together, consider postponing events and gatherings.

Public Health is not recommending closing schools at this time. If there is a confirmed case of COVID-19, Public Health will work with the school and the district to determine the best measures including potential closure of the school.

All people should not go out when they are sick.

Avoid visiting hospitals, long term care facilities, or nursing homes to the extent possible. If you need to go, limit your time there and keep six feet away from patients.


More detail on these measures will be available at www.kingcounty.gov/covid

The decision on school closure will likely change when the first student is infected. Highlighting in the above is mine, not theirs.

Sam

3.77% < CFR < 5.36%

There are two types of people; the living, and the dead. Choose which group you would like to be part of.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 05:52:23 AM by Sam »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2027 on: March 06, 2020, 05:58:01 AM »
With doubling time of confirmed cases outside China currently at about three days, we can be sure of one thing--that rate cannot continue for more than three months, since by then everyone on earth would have had it at least once! (Of course, with stories of re-infection...who knows  :o )
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2028 on: March 06, 2020, 06:20:51 AM »
I don’t know what to think about the mask isn’t necessary meme.

For how i understand it, a mask makes you unintentionally touch your face all the time to adjust the mask.

If you are not ill, this is a way to become ill. You shouldn't rub things you have on your hands into your face.

if you are ill though, a mask is a measurement to not distribute your phlegm all over the place.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2029 on: March 06, 2020, 06:21:01 AM »
With doubling time of confirmed cases outside China currently at about three days, we can be sure of one thing--that rate cannot continue for more than three months, since by then everyone on earth would have had it at least once! (Of course, with stories of re-infection...who knows  :o )

Whether imposed by governments, or self imposed by people, the rate will no doubt drop as quarantines and isolation begins. The Chinese imposed it. Western countries have not embraced it - yet; except Italy - who has begun doing so. When the governments abrogate their roles in protecting people’s health, the people will react in fear and do so themselves.

Sam

nanning

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2030 on: March 06, 2020, 10:12:10 AM »
Inside the cruise ship that became a coronavirus breeding ground

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/06/inside-the-cruise-ship-that-became-a-coronavirus-breeding-ground-diamond-princess
  by Rebecca Ratcliffe and Carmela Fonbuena in Manila


As contagion swept through the Diamond Princess, its crew had to carry on working. Here, they recall the climate of chaos and fear that prevailed during the ship’s two-week quarantine

Christian Santos* remembers staying awake at night, anxiously listening to the sound of his colleague coughing. They were sleeping below deck, in one of the small rooms shared by workers on board the stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship.

He had spent the previous two weeks serving guests who were confined to their rooms, and watching the miserable failure of disease-control measures on the vessel. Now he knew the coronavirus, which had already transmitted to hundreds of people onboard, had almost certainly entered his own cabin.

He tried to move rooms, but was told this wasn’t possible. “Every time he coughed I was afraid,” recalls Santos, who, like many workers interviewed, asked to speak under a pseudonym. The next morning his colleague was taken to hospital for treatment.


But these measures, which some have speculated were imposed days too late, only applied to passengers. Crew continued to eat in a large mess hall, share bathroom facilities and go to guests’ rooms. Some departments received protective equipment later than others. Santos says he did not receive a mask until a week after the ship had been stopped.

“It was almost as if they were forced to pick between their health and safety, and their economic livelihood,” she said.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2031 on: March 06, 2020, 01:38:11 PM »
Bernard "https://nextstrain.org/ncov
176 different genomes sampled as of today"

Note that even many viruses have non-coding parts in their genome so alterations do occur frequently.

Impossible to say from the graph if any of the mutations are functionally different. I bet someone is testing these out in hopes of finding which are less virulent etc.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2032 on: March 06, 2020, 02:17:23 PM »
Morning papers reported dutch cases jumped to 82.
13 people have no link to Italy or other regions or people that went there rest is all related to Italy.

1st death. An 86 yo man who went to the hospïtal with a urinary tract infection sunday march 1st then developed respiratory troubles some ungiven time later. Died 6th of march.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6033984/eerste-nederlander-86-overleden-aan-gevolgen-coronavirus.html
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2033 on: March 06, 2020, 02:25:25 PM »
Bruce, your follow-up question to #1993 is a good one. A lot of scientists are concerned covid-19 already had, for whatever reason, multiple routes of entry into the human cell (ie beyond ACE2) at the time of release or that it can or will quickly evolve by point mutation the common additional mechanisms that other ssRNA viruses use to get into mammalian cells, either because of replicative advantage or selective pressure from partially effective drugs and immunological approaches.

The viral load in one NEJM German patient was reported as ~100,000,000 mature viroids per single mwl of phlegm. At those titers, rare events happen all the time.
... [and more brilliant knowledge and insight]

I'd forgotten A-Team previously has shown expertise in biochemistry and molecular biology.   We've long seen his impressive knowledge and talent in areas more central to this forum.

The world is facing a fast-moving crisis, with many lives on the line.  I hope, A-Team, that you're seeking to make your talent available to address the current crisis.  Maybe the depth of this post means you're already doing so.  I hope so.

My perusal of the peer-reviewed literature suggests that the previous SARS and MERS epidemics may have led to some useful advances.  No great funding for research for these fairly brief, limited epidemics happened, but teams have continued work on possible antiviral treatments and vaccines, many of which *might* be directly applicable to Covid-19 now. 

Capitalism permeates more and more of society over time.  With a number of rational advances to build on, the greatest attention and efforts seem now to focus on those possibilities with the strongest profit potential. 

Remdesivir might be the cat's pajamas for this problem.  But using any single agent alone will lead to viral resistance.  We've seen this already with influenza and amantadine resistance.   And HIV and TB and malaria, and other diseases.  For the last three, we've learned that combination treatment is successful in avoiding rapid emergence of resistance.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 02:32:12 PM by SteveMDFP »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2034 on: March 06, 2020, 02:28:29 PM »
Too bad there are no Iranian sequences on nextstrain.

BTW: change display to Radial it is much easier then rectangular.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2035 on: March 06, 2020, 02:37:14 PM »
For those "waiting to hear it's in my area!" before taking it seriously? Don't!

By that time it will have been in your area, and circulation, for a potential 14 days 'asymptomatically' and a potential further 7 days as symptoms emerged and became bad enough for the victim to 'present' to the Health Service?

Meanwhile , like a scene from 'Gringotts Bank' where 'Le Strange's' Vault's 'doubling spell for silverware' is set off, further 'carriers' have been being produced (and creating their own 'carriers'?) day upon day....... better off to act is if it is HERE RIGHT NOW and so get a jump on the blighter?

'
"It's only affecting the elderly and is mild for most".....

In Aug 1918 so was H1N1!!!

But the return of a 'drifted' clade of H1N1 to the camps where the 'original clade' was still in circulation allowed the two clades to meet in a victim and to 'recombine' into something far deadlier.....

At present there are at least 4 'recognisably different' 'flavours' of Covid-19 in circulation, Wuhan,Iranian,S.Korean and Italian........

Never the twain shall meet or is a 'recombination' event inevitable?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2036 on: March 06, 2020, 03:02:46 PM »
For the German-speaking folks, this is an extremely good COVID-19 podcast by the Coronavirus expert Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten on NDR.

Link >> https://overcast.fm/+YC69F1uEI

Bernard

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2037 on: March 06, 2020, 03:21:55 PM »
Too bad there are no Iranian sequences on nextstrain.

And too bad also France has only 5 samples, the more "recent" being dated Feb 8th, that is almost one month old ...

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2038 on: March 06, 2020, 03:35:22 PM »
Dutch cases up to 128 from 82.
101 with known contacts to risk areas or persons that went there.

27 cases with no known contacts.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6035471/aantal-besmettingen-met-coronavirus-in-nederland-stijgt-van-82-naar-128.html
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John_The_Elder

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2039 on: March 06, 2020, 03:39:52 PM »
What happens in Vegas no longer stays in Vegas. A Toronto man hit it big in Vegas and returned home with Covid-19.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-s-24th-case-of-covid-19-had-recently-travelled-to-las-vegas-1.4841570
Macau shut down for 2 weeks when the virus struck there. Any chance that Vegas will follow suit??
With 45,000,000 visitors a year it could become the biggest gamble of life time!
(edit to remover tracker)
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 04:29:21 PM by John_The_Elder »
John

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2040 on: March 06, 2020, 04:06:06 PM »
For all: Please remove the questionmark and all the rest from the link since they are trackers.

A simple test copy link without qm and rest to check if it works.
Some sites use it for something else but that is usually a counter so if the string after the questionmark is long it is a tracker.


Also another first:
But Canada's first apparent case of community transmission was reported in British Columbia last night, when officials announced eight new cases of the illness.

They say a woman in the Vancouver area was diagnosed with COVID-19, even though she did not travel recently and has had no known contact with anyone else diagnosed with the viru
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2041 on: March 06, 2020, 04:18:04 PM »
Also:

The world faces an air pollution 'pandemic'

People's lives are shortened by an average of nearly three years from different sources of air pollution

Air pollution is responsible for shortening people's lives worldwide on a scale far greater than wars and other forms of violence, parasitic and vector-born diseases such as malaria, HIV/AIDS and smoking, according to a study published in Cardiovascular Research   today (Tuesday).

Professors Jos Lelieveld and Thomas Münzel, of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Department of Cardiology of the University Medical Centre Mainz in Mainz, Germany, who led the research, say the findings suggest the world is facing an air pollution "pandemic."

Using a new method of modelling the effects of various sources of air pollution on death rates, the researchers estimated that globally air pollution caused an extra 8.8 million premature deaths a year in 2015. This represents an average shortening of life expectancy of nearly three years for all persons worldwide.

In comparison, tobacco smoking shortens life expectancy by an average of 2.2 years (7.2 million deaths), HIV/AIDS by 0.7 years (1 million deaths), diseases like malaria that are carried by parasites or insects such as mosquitoes, ticks and fleas by 0.6 years (600,000 deaths), and all forms of violence (including deaths in wars) by 0.3 years (530,000 deaths).

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200302200734.htm

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Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2042 on: March 06, 2020, 04:19:35 PM »
Kassy, off topic but I have seen others make same request. If on John the elders last post for example.
If you eliminate everything in the link back to and including question mark , it will still send ?
Also are the trackers anything more than irritating , or what exactly is the problem. I use a cheap I-pad so do the trackers eat a lot of memory if I save them? Sorry to expose my ignorance.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2043 on: March 06, 2020, 04:25:46 PM »
Yes.

You can test by pasting edited link in another window.

See:
I have noticed that links posted now include a bit that goes "?fbclid=" followed by a long string. That string is a facebook tracker.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2044 on: March 06, 2020, 04:40:49 PM »
If you eliminate everything in the link back to and including question mark , it will still send ?

The link will still work. But the tracking Infos are no more accessible for Facebook.

Quote
Also are the trackers anything more than irritating

Yes. Facebook has a profile for you even if you don't have an account with Facebook. They track you throughout the whole internet once such a tracker is set.

Quote
, or what exactly is the problem.

They invade your privacy. They sell your browsing data to advertising companies. They can do with your data whatever they want. There is no regulation protecting you.

Quote
I use a cheap I-pad so do the trackers eat a lot of memory

No. It's a just a cookie living in your browser. The file size of such cookies is very small.

Quote
Sorry to expose my ignorance.

You don't need to be an expert on fucking everything. No need to apologize. :)

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2045 on: March 06, 2020, 04:48:20 PM »
We've made it past the 6 digit mark according to Johns Hopkins link. 100,347 confirmed cases at this hour (10:45: AM - EST)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

When will the WHO finally declare this to be a pandemic?

"In June 2017 the World Bank sold about $450 million of pandemic bonds, that pay if there is no pandemic, but poor sick countries get the money if there is a pandemic. There are 3 tranches of these. No pandemic by this July means big money to big investors. Declaration (unavoidable soon) of pandemic triggers means poor, devastated countries get some of the money that is left after fees and coupon payments, already disbursed."
http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/02/run-on-chloroquine.html

The WHO certainly wouldn't play games with people's lives just to keep <1/2 B$ from flowing into the coffers of the poorest and sickest countries - would they?
Terry


Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2046 on: March 06, 2020, 05:03:20 PM »
OK. I have been thinking about our plastic bag policy here in Calif. When you go to the grocery store you are suppose to bring your own plastic bags with you. This is to save on plastic waste and help the environment . I am certain that under current pandemic risks bringing fomites from everyones home back to the store so the bagger boy, the clerk and the counters all are exposed to the whole community is something not in the common interest.
 I am going to make a couple calls today but somehow changing society in an instant seems less than likely. It would be very easy to temporarily switch back to one time paper bag use and resend the plastic bag use policy. To actually get this done however would take weeks or months of red tape and
bureaucratic none sense . Going to the store and nobody wearing masks or gloves and having potential community spread both by individuals you meet or the fomites they carry puts everyone at risk. It is in the details of how our societies react to risk that will divide those societies that weather this pandemic and those that fare badly.

Eight other states and many large US cities with similar policies.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/environment-and-natural-resources/plastic-bag-legislation.aspx

« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 05:18:40 PM by Bruce Steele »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2047 on: March 06, 2020, 05:26:04 PM »
Well that's ironic...
Trump Says CDC Trip Called Off Over Suspected Coronavirus Case
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-cdc-trip-called-off-over-suspected-coronavirus-case/ar-BB10Q7Io
Quote
President Donald Trump said the White House canceled his expected visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday because someone at the Atlanta agency was suspected of contracting the coronavirus.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 07:44:42 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2048 on: March 06, 2020, 05:38:08 PM »
Tom, Do you see that question mark in the link you just posted ?    You gotta scrub the ?ocid=spartann

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2049 on: March 06, 2020, 05:49:08 PM »
A washing hands ditty to the tune of "Mary Had a Little Lamb"

Covid-19 is a germ, is a germ, is a germ.
Covid-19 is a germ, a virus to avoid.

Wash your hands most thoroughly, thoroughly, thoroughly.
Wash your hands most thoroughly to keep the germs away.

Between the fingers, under rings, under rings, under rings.
Between the fingers, under rings, and under nails also.

Sanitize quite frequently,  frequently,  frequently.
Sanitize quite frequently, and before touching face.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.