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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 586099 times)

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2350 on: March 11, 2020, 05:28:37 PM »
Other population cases are less clear. There is not yet a good explanation for why the China data, ex Hubei shows a lower CFR than the total data set for China.

Oh yes, there is clear explanation, you just do not want to accept it.

As this is still evolving in other countries, there is only China to be used for reasonable CFR numbers.
The difference between Hubei and China ex Hubei can be explained by either of these:

1. Every number coming out of China is a lie (in this case let's just forget the data)
2. The health care system collapsed
3. They did not have the capacity to count every case especially if they were mild

Number 3 explains the difference perfectly, it is logical, and supported by evidence. Occam would love this.
(One can of course still argue that number 2 played a part though). 

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2351 on: March 11, 2020, 05:34:01 PM »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2352 on: March 11, 2020, 05:36:29 PM »
Actually, the answer is the health care system was overwhelmed.

- If you compare the Hubai death rate (0.7%) with Wuhan death rate (3-4%), you see that the death rate is way higher in regions where hospitals are over capacity ...

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2353 on: March 11, 2020, 06:05:26 PM »
"We cannot say this loudly enough or clearly enough or often enough, all countries can still change the course of this pandemic.  Some countries are struggling with a lack of capacity. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resources. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resolve."

World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-pandemic.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2354 on: March 11, 2020, 06:32:42 PM »
Italy numbers are in: 2313 new cases (highest so far outsideChina I think) and 196 new deaths (record high)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2355 on: March 11, 2020, 06:35:27 PM »
El Cid, did you make yourself aware of what is happening in Italy as we speak?  Can you share with us your find? You seem to be way off.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 06:53:00 PM by Archimid »
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aperson

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2356 on: March 11, 2020, 06:48:44 PM »
Here are some threads describing the situation in Italy. Twitter has been an excellent source for getting boots-on-the-ground insight into these sort of situations:

https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129 (March 9th)

"1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of.

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

3/ I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder.

4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.

5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.

6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.

7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

9/ Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing covid19 to flu, link below]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is"temporarily" put in crisis,

10/ the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.

12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.

13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.

14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?"

15/ Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

16/ There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols.

17/ Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.

18/ We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy."

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?"


https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538 (March 9th)

"1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare."


And if you need a further visceral experience:
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-10-20-intl-hnk/h_9624502beef0a03b30b921a6de96c4f3

Woman in Italy is stuck with the body of her husband who died from coronavirus

"An Italian woman has been unable to leave her apartment where her husband’s dead body is being kept due to quarantine restrictions, Giancarlo Canepa, mayor of Borghetto Santo Spirito, told CNN Tuesday.

The husband, who had tested positive for coronavirus previously, died Monday at 2 a.m. local time.

“Yes, it is true she is still there with the body and we won’t be able to remove it until Wednesday morning,“ the mayor said. Canepa said quarantine protocol states that no one is allowed to approach the body."


Anyway, El Cid, if you think China is lying about its numbers and there is adequate ER space in Italy, you are delusional.
computer janitor by trade

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2357 on: March 11, 2020, 07:03:46 PM »
Here is an article from the Sacramento Bee re. a family cluster , children and schools in Elkgrove.


County health officials on Monday said they will no longer ask people who come into contact with an infected person to immediately self-quarantine themselves for 14 days.

“With the shift from containment to mitigation, it is no longer necessary for someone who has been in contact with someone with COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days,” health officials wrote. “This applies to the general public, as well as health care workers and first responders.”

s://www.sacbee.com/community/elk-grove/article241038196.html


aperson

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2358 on: March 11, 2020, 07:06:04 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

Quote
The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors

There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care.


The principle they settle upon is utilitarian. “Informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number,” they suggest that “the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care.”

The authors, who are medical doctors, then deduce a set of concrete recommendations for how to manage these impossible choices, including this: “It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.”

Those who are too old to have a high likelihood of recovery, or who have too low a number of “life-years” left even if they should survive, will be left to die. This sounds cruel, but the alternative, the document argues, is no better. “In case of a total saturation of resources, maintaining the criterion of ‘first come, first served’ would amount to a decision to exclude late-arriving patients from access to intensive care.”
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2359 on: March 11, 2020, 07:06:31 PM »
Bruce, I guess that's kind of an admission that pretty much everyone in that state (and many others, no doubt) have been in contact with someone contageous?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2360 on: March 11, 2020, 07:13:43 PM »
Wili,  It is a recipe for letting the virus run !  The way China halted their pandemic was isolating everyone who came in contact. If we are to let everyone exposed wander around the grocery store ,the bar, the churches, and hospitals unrestricted then we shall see what fate awaits us.
 


be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2361 on: March 11, 2020, 07:35:22 PM »
the fate for Trumpland will be many millions of dead unless El Cid can save them . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2362 on: March 11, 2020, 07:42:21 PM »
It is advice for people with no symptoms. There are also practical components. If they kept the rule for health care workers you run out of them very quickly. And if you keep home whole classes that puts a strain on those families.

https://ww w.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Micheal Osterholm at Joe Rogan. Starts with Covid and veers off towards other diseases after 30 or 40 minutes or so.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2363 on: March 11, 2020, 07:47:59 PM »
If you have the means to self-isolate, do it!

The elderly must self-isolate!

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2364 on: March 11, 2020, 07:59:29 PM »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2365 on: March 11, 2020, 08:02:24 PM »
Bruce, good point.

My University just canceled all class meetings till at least April 1. Everything must go online...which does not work very well with my teaching style or skill set :/

I'm sure we can make something work
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2366 on: March 11, 2020, 08:21:11 PM »
NYU Doctor Says US Hospitals Are Unprepared and Will Be ‘Flooded’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Coronavirus patients could so overwhelm U.S. hospitals that doctors and nurses would be unable to provide adequately for other patients, an infectious disease specialist told CNBC.

“When you have emergency rooms flooded with patients, it makes it harder for us to attend to all the other issues,” Dr. Celine Gounder said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “If you come in with a heart attack, we’re going to be slower taking care of you and we’re going to be sloppier with our own infection control if we’re overwhelmed.”

The U.S. has fewer doctors per person and fewer hospital beds per person than Italy, said Gounder, a clinical assistant professor of medicine and infectious diseases at New York University.

“We have less capacity to absorb a big surge in cases,” she said. “We need to be preparing for that.”

--------------------------------

First US Hospital Chain to Treat Coronavirus Considers Treating Patients In ‘Tents Outside’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The hospital chain that cared for the first coronavirus patient in the U.S. is considering treating a potential crush of new patients in temporary arrangements, the CEO told CNBC.

“We’re already looking at how we use our ICU beds. How can we use alternative areas of care, including setting up tents outside of our hospitals,” Rod Hochman, CEO of Providence St. Joseph Health, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “We’re trying to stay way in front of this as we see a wave of patients potentially coming forward.”

Providence St. Joseph Health, which operates 51 hospitals across seven states, treated the first U.S. COVID-19 patient in the U.S. in January, a 35-year-old man from Snohomish County in Washington state.

-----------------------------

US Cases Surpass 1,000, Up Tenfold From a Week Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The U.S. death toll climbed to 31 and the number of U.S. cases rolled past 1,000, federal health officials said. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield told a congressional committee the virus has spread to at least 38 states.

“Right now the epicenter – the new China – is Europe,” Redfield said. “And there’s a lot of people coming back and forth from Europe that are now starting to seed these communities.”

... “Bottom line: It’s going to get worse,” he said.




https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/11/coronavirus-live-updates-washington-ban-michigan-cases-us-death/5011587002/

--------------------------------

Meanwhile, at least 30 cruise ships currently at sea with about 100,000 people list port destinations in the United States sometime this week, according to a USA TODAY satellite tracking analysis of 380 of the world’s largest cruise ships. It's not clear if all ports will be open to receive them.

-------------------------------------



------------------------------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 1,400 points lower, or 5.6%, and was 20% below its record high set earlier last month. A 20% decline is considered a bear market on Wall Street. The S&P 500 is 19.2% from its closing record and traded 5.1% lower on the day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

-------------------------------------

- Global cases: More than 121,564, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

- Global deaths: At least 4,373, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

- US cases: At least 1,050, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

- US deaths: At least 35, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 08:41:02 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2367 on: March 11, 2020, 08:41:53 PM »
Case at Mining Conference Sparks Race to Limit Spread (11:58 a.m. NY)
https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/u-k-health-minister-infected-deaths-top-4-000-virus-update

The race is on to limit the spread of the coronavirus after news of an infection at an international mining conference in Toronto attended by more than 23,100 people, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

------------------------

Trump Aides Back Raising Europe Warning (2:01 p.m. NY)
https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/u-k-health-minister-infected-deaths-top-4-000-virus-update

President Donald Trump’s advisers are recommending that the U.S. raise its travel alert to Level 3 for the entire European Union, a move that would mean Americans should avoid everything but essential travel to the 27-nation bloc and should self-quarantine for two weeks upon returning home, according to three people familiar with the matter.

A Level 3 advisory from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention means those countries are witnessing “widespread, ongoing transmission” of the virus. The people said that the recommendation would likely exclude the U.K.

-------------------------

Virus Is at Bear Stearns Moment and May Get Worse, Summers Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/virus-is-at-bear-stearns-moment-and-may-get-worse-summers-says

The coronavirus threatens both public health and the global economy and may prove to be the most serious crisis of the century so far, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said, adding that policy makers haven’t yet been able to grasp its gravity.

“This is one of the four major events of the 21st century so far,” Summers said in a Bloomberg Television interview, also listing the Sept. 11 attacks, Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 financial crisis. “It wouldn’t amaze me if this didn’t prove to be the most serious of any of those events,” he said. “I don’t think the full extent of this problem has yet been fully appreciated.”

“We’re in a moment like where we were after Bear Stearns,” he said, referring to the collapse of the U.S.-based investment bank in the first quarter of 2008, several months before the world plunged into full-blown crisis with the failure of Lehman Brothers. “In retrospect, the time was largely wasted, and it would have been better if we had acted much more promptly.”

... the U.S. government’s response so far is “looking distressingly like the administration response to Katrina,” under George W. Bush.

-------------------------------

« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:23:15 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2368 on: March 11, 2020, 09:01:24 PM »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2369 on: March 11, 2020, 09:17:00 PM »
Excellent analysis!! Highly recommend!!
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Fantastic analysis. The South Korea case makes sense when you look at the young age demographic and the effects of the expanded testing. That is reflected in the bounds analysis of the CFR. Just do NOT get hung up on the low bound CFR. It is misleading.

The fatality rate is 4-5% on a population level  - almost all over age 55 in the specifics, with tragic exceptions.

Lost too though is the immense harm to three times this many people with heart, lung and kidney damage, and the crushing weight on the health care system.

The Chinese acted correctly and massively with oppressive quarantines. AND by immediately building the hospitals required to care for people. No other country is doing this. The consequence of that failure of vision, leadership, and action will be devestating all over the world outside of China.

And that is likely to be most especially true in the United States, where the crushing failure of leadership is the most pronounced. In the United States, rather than leadership we have the proverbial three monkeys - see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. The consequences of that failure will be tragic and fatal for many. Given the advanced age of much of the leadership, it will be entirely unsurprising to see a 20% death rate of those in high office and positions of power. It will be a fascinating and horribly sad case study for the future of how not to run a country.

Sam
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:24:08 PM by Sam »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2370 on: March 11, 2020, 09:20:58 PM »
White House Classifies Top-Level COVID-19 Meetings 2:51 p.m.:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-secrecy-exclusive/exclusive-white-house-told-federal-health-agency-to-classify-coronavirus-deliberations-sources-idUSKBN20Y2LM

Reuters: “The White House has ordered federal health officials to treat top-level coronavirus meetings as classified, an unusual step that has restricted information and hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion, according to four Trump administration officials.”

The officials said that dozens of classified discussions about such topics as the scope of infections, quarantines and travel restrictions have been held since mid-January in a high-security meeting room at the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS), a key player in the fight against the coronavirus.

Staffers without security clearances, including government experts, were excluded from the interagency meetings, which included video conference calls, the sources said.

Quote
... “We had some very critical people who did not have security clearances who could not go,” ... “These should not be classified meetings. It was unnecessary.”

The White House insistence on secrecy at the nation’s premier public health organization, which has not been previously disclosed, has put a lid on certain information - and potentially delayed the response to the crisis.

... That follows this 1 p.m. tweet from DOD’s official twitter feed: “’The way that you control public health outbreak is not to hide data, it’s to be transparent to the public & to your partners going forward so that we have a clear understanding of the risk and then we can take appropriate measures to mitigate.’ — Brig. Gen. (Dr.) Paul Friedrichs”

https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1237785453132120072

--------------------------



--------------------------

Top Armed Services Lawmaker Scoffs at Coronavirus Precautions 12:42 p.m.:
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/prognosis-latest-news-coronavirus-national-security/163666/

Asked what precautions he is taking to protect himself from COVID-19, octogenarian Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told reporters “none” — and then offered his hand. “Wanna shake hands?” he said, according to The New York Times. The cavalier response from the Pentagon’s senior overseer on Capitol Hill comes as the Pentagon has implemented so-called “social distancing” practices per CDC guidelines that recommend people stand six feet away from one another. Pressure is mounting on lawmakers to cancel votes and curtail other activities in the Capitol to prevent an outbreak.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2371 on: March 11, 2020, 09:21:25 PM »
Community spread is starting in Seoul. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200311000761

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2372 on: March 11, 2020, 09:36:17 PM »
aperson said:
Quote
Anyway, El Cid, if you think China is lying about its numbers and there is adequate ER space in Italy, you are delusional.
Did you mean China is not lying?
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:51:29 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2373 on: March 11, 2020, 09:41:00 PM »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2374 on: March 11, 2020, 09:57:14 PM »
Tom, please read this one:

Excellent analysis!! Highly recommend!!
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Coincidentally, I just opened that on a tab in the library.
And while reading this thread, my cousin Barbara called. We are scheduled to go to the restaurant Mar 19, but she is having second thoughts. We will wait till the weekend to decide, but I am skeptical of our going.
My cousin Sharon is a nurse in Colorado. Reading what health care workers are facing, I am fearful for her.
Yesterday Father Mike announced there will be no Precious Blood at the Eucharist till this blows over "in about a month" (his optimism is so touching). I am glad because, as an extraordinary minister of the Eucharist, I have to consume any Precious Blood left over.
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2375 on: March 11, 2020, 10:31:45 PM »
China is sending medical teams and gear to Italy, Iran and Iraq


Italy will receive 2,000,000 face masks, 10,000 pulmonary ventilators and 20,000 protective suits as well as trained medical teams.


https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/akwage/china-is-now-sending-doctors-masks-and-hazmat-suits-to-help-italy-with-its-coronavirus-outbreak


Terry




Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2376 on: March 11, 2020, 10:49:33 PM »
Six questions we should be asking about coronavirus
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486558-six-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus
Quote
Is self-quarantining good enough?
Do quarantines work well anyway?
How would a large quarantine be implemented and enforced?
How much do we have a right to know?
Should there be better, clearer protocols for infected people?
How can taxpayers be protected from a money grab?
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2377 on: March 11, 2020, 10:52:44 PM »
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


The above is data supplied and updated by Chinese students residing in Canada and the States.
I'm assured that it's more accurate than other sources and that it's constantly updated by a large number of student volunteers.
It breaks things down to at least a county level allowing many to access the risk close to home.


Stay Isolated, Stay Healthy, Stay in Touch.
Terry

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2378 on: March 11, 2020, 10:58:04 PM »
Six questions we should be asking about coronavirus
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486558-six-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus
Quote
Is self-quarantining good enough?
Do quarantines work well anyway?
How would a large quarantine be implemented and enforced?
How much do we have a right to know?
Should there be better, clearer protocols for infected people?
How can taxpayers be protected from a money grab?


Tom
Who in the hell is worried about their taxes during a frigging pandemic?


That borders on a ghoulish fixation on money.
Terry

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2379 on: March 11, 2020, 10:58:43 PM »
Six questions we should be asking about coronavirus
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486558-six-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus
Quote
Is self-quarantining good enough?
Do quarantines work well anyway?
How would a large quarantine be implemented and enforced?
How much do we have a right to know?
Should there be better, clearer protocols for infected people?
How can taxpayers be protected from a money grab?

1/Self Quarantining post exposure or post infection is essential- it is not "good enough"
2/Yes, large quarantines work better than any other response so far.
3/Good leadership and the power of the state
4/What does "right" mean? Excellent communication and information is essential
5/ That depends on where you live... generally, there is still work to be done here. Protocols are often well worked out but poorly adopted.
6/ What? Right, you are American. Universal health care will sidestep most profiteering.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2380 on: March 11, 2020, 11:02:27 PM »
In the US it is State, City & Local Governments and some parts of the Private Sector who are taking the lead on combating climate change - where it is happening at all. The Federal Government is either inactive or positively hostile to practical steps to address the crisis.

I rather feel that if the US has any chance to avoid the almost unimaginable health, societal and economic impacts of an unconstrained Covid-19 epidemic, the same will apply. The Federal Government still has some capacity in people and physical resources to assist - but how can the professionals overcome the sheer incompetence and utter blind stupidity of the Trump Administration and its cheerleaders in Congress (e.g. Inhofe) ? Others will have to do the necessary.

It is quite extraordinary that the most powerful nation in the world (measured in conventional terms - e.g.s military / economy) should turn out to be amongst the weakest nations in combating an internal threat such as a virus.

USA - The Future of Empire?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2381 on: March 11, 2020, 11:22:17 PM »
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


The above is data supplied and updated by Chinese students residing in Canada and the States.
I'm assured that it's more accurate than other sources and that it's constantly updated by a large number of student volunteers.
It breaks things down to at least a county level allowing many to access the risk close to home.


Stay Isolated, Stay Healthy, Stay in Touch.
Terry

Fantastic!

Thank you Terry.

Also - people should note an excellent source that these five students list...

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

As well as all of the individual sources for their data.

Current best estimate of the CFR:
3. 91% < CFR < 4.88%. ==> CFR ~ 4.4%
Somewhat dependent on population age demographics and health.

Current best estimate of the growth rate:
1.33 / day - based on current infections
All succeeding numbers are derived from this and are very sensitive to it.

Current best estimate of R0 based on 5.9 or 7.2 day serial time:
5.4 and 7.8 respectively


Current best estimate of the average doubling time across many countries (varies by region):
2.44 days

Current best estimate of the weekly ./. monthly growth rate of those infected:
7.4 fold growth per week ./. 5,700 fold growth per month
Until quarantines and restrictions are imposed, or mass self-isolation occurs.

Sam

”Be the change you want to see.”
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 11:49:30 PM by Sam »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2382 on: March 11, 2020, 11:45:04 PM »
COVID-19 Survey: Impacts On Global Supply Chains
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/covid-19-survey-impacts-on-global-supply-chains-301021528.html
Quote
Notably, nearly 75 percent of companies report supply chain disruptions in some capacity due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions, and more than 80 percent believe that their organization will experience some impact because of COVID-19 disruptions. Of those, one in six (16%) companies report adjusting revenue targets downward an average of 5.6 percent due to the coronavirus.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2383 on: March 11, 2020, 11:47:08 PM »
Terry, breakdown by country not county , correct?

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2384 on: March 12, 2020, 12:14:44 AM »
Bruce .. by county if you click on the state .. triangle

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2385 on: March 12, 2020, 12:22:20 AM »
Because, Thanks . County is much more helpful.


pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2386 on: March 12, 2020, 01:02:54 AM »
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 01:12:03 AM by pileus »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2387 on: March 12, 2020, 01:05:16 AM »
Excellent resource Terry. Thanks.

---------------------------

Here is what my state epidemiologist had to say this evening about the part of the state I live in ...

Quote
... “If you have a fever and a cough and you are in the southwestern part of the state, you should assume that you have COVID-19,” Cartter said.

“You don’t need a test to tell you that’s what you have, you should assume that’s the illness you have. Most people will get better at home, especially the younger you are. You should talk to your physician.”

He said we shouldn't inundate the hospitals, and more than 80 percent of people will get better on their own, at home.

(... Based on my pre-existing conditions (>65, bad heart), I suspect I will NOT be one of the 80% who will get better at home.)

In Westport, where schools were closed indefinitely Wednesday, health officials said a person from out of the country who tested positive for COVID-19 had attended a party in town last Thursday with about 40 adults and children.

Fourteen people developed flu-like symptoms after the party, but officials have not yet determined if they are cases of COVID-19.

... The state lab can only do 20 tests a day.

---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2388 on: March 12, 2020, 02:18:24 AM »
Up To 150 Million Americans Are Expected To Contract the Coronavirus, Congressional Doctor Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-live-updates-covid-19-global-pandemic.html

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the United States will become infected with COVID-19, NBC News reported, citing two sources.

Monahan made the comments to Senate staff during a closed-door meeting Tuesday afternoon, according to NBC News. The meeting did not include senators and was for administrative office staff and personnel from both parties, NBC News reported.

Adm. Monahan also told those present that coronavirus testing will only be administered to members of Congress. On the other hand, Congressional staffers should see their doctors if they experience any COVID-19 symptoms. Adm. Monahan also reaffirmed a consistent message that ultimately, 80% of those that contract the coronavirus will be fine.

--------------------------

Italy Cases Top 12,000
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-live-updates-covid-19-global-pandemic.html

Italy’s health ministry said as of 6 p.m. local time on Mar. 11, there were a total of 12,462 cases, including 1,045 people who have recovered and 827 who have died. The country is in a complete lockdown at the moment, with most non-essential businesses, including bars and restaurants, closed. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte earlier this week told people to “stay at home.” Outside China, Italy is the worst-affected country.

--------------------------

Trump Will Suspend All US Travel To and From Europe for Next 30 Days
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk

President Trump announced tonight that all travel from Europe to the United States will be suspended for the next 30 days, except for the UK.

Trump made the decision in order to "keep new cases from entering our shores."

Trump said there will be certain exemptions made for certain Americans "who have undergone appropriate screenings."

"These prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing. These restrictions will also not apply to the United Kingdom," Trump added.

----------------------------

Dow Futures Plunge About 500 Points Following Speech
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-flat-as-traders-await-trumps-address-on-coronavirus-measures-2020-03-11

Stock futures sink after Trump announces ban on U.S.-Europe travel

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YMH20, -2.091% were about flat before the address, but tumbled more than 500 points, or 2% immediately after Trump spoke, while S&P 500 futures ESH20, -2.082% and Nasdaq-100 futures NQH20, -2.021% fell around 2% as well.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 02:34:03 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2389 on: March 12, 2020, 02:22:54 AM »
I just saw the speech by the Trump-in-chief.

He is blaming it all on a "foreign" virus, and mostly on Europe. Suspend all flights from the continent.

The guy did not seem quite well, though.

Sad.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2390 on: March 12, 2020, 02:30:27 AM »
Tom Hanks and wife confirmed to have Covid 19 in Australia . Sorry news but puts a real face on things ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2391 on: March 12, 2020, 02:30:59 AM »
He now claims decisive action even tho just a few days ago it was just a cold.  He sabotaged the early response, created chaos and spread misinformation.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2393 on: March 12, 2020, 02:57:27 AM »
I just saw the speech by the Trump-in-chief.

He is blaming it all on a "foreign" virus, and mostly on Europe. Suspend all flights from the continent.

The guy did not seem quite well, though.

Sad.

Brazilian official who met Trump testing for coronavirus

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-trump/brazilian-official-who-met-trump-testing-for-coronavirus-paper-idUSKBN20Z071?il=0

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2394 on: March 12, 2020, 03:23:02 AM »
Trump talking and blaming "others"

He sounds sick to me too.


TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2395 on: March 12, 2020, 03:47:21 AM »
Terry, breakdown by country not county , correct?
Correct!
Clicking on down I found that three of todays 4 cases in Ontario were quite close to me.


Of the 4 new cases one had returned from Egypt, one from Austria, and two from the US.


Their sex and age (by decade) is given as well as the hospital where they'd been diagnosed. In this case all 4 are recovering at home while self isolating.


The closest to me is a 30 something woman from Halton, a community 48km from me, had visited the States, and was diagnosed at the hospital that my oncologist is at. She's presently at home in self isolation.
The  site again is:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


This is the URL that my wonderful Chinese friend alerted me to and I still haven't done more than give it a quick look.
I'm glad so many are finding it useful & I'll pass your thanks on the next time I talk to her.


Your slightly depressed but quite well isolated poster boy for forum posts ???
Terry

Juan C. García

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2396 on: March 12, 2020, 03:57:13 AM »
Coronavirus: Trump suspends travel from Europe to US

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51846923
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2397 on: March 12, 2020, 04:10:34 AM »
Except for the UK.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2398 on: March 12, 2020, 05:41:53 AM »
Except for the UK.

It will be modified to also exclude Ireland, once they realize it's not in the UK (he has a golf course there).

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2399 on: March 12, 2020, 06:23:06 AM »
The USA is more of a risk to the rest of us then Europe will ever be.
Because.
Anti science nutbars are running the country.

No socialized  health care system, no mandated sick pay and no compassion for those less fortunate will fuck the USA big time  in the next few  months.

The  bright side is the virus  will  cull the Fox news watching demographic.

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.