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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 65

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 293350 times)

Sam

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Re: COVID-1
« Reply #2650 on: March 14, 2020, 11:16:27 PM »
So far 700 people have been tested in New-York, 500 of them tested positive.
That is an insane number of positive results for what is at this point essentially a screening test. Contrast this with where I work in Alberta where as of this morning there have been 7,108 tests done with 39 positives (source; accessed March 14).

In practice in New York this means the pre-test probability at the time the test is exceptionally high; in this setting it's impossible to conclude that a negative result is a true negative (barring a test with 100% sensitivity--and we know that's not the case).

On the flip side... if the tests are correct, we will know in about a week as a large percentage of those 500 become hospital patients.

However, if that is true, by then the case numbers in the population will have completely exploded.

Sam

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2651 on: March 14, 2020, 11:21:51 PM »

I know you want this to be less devastating than it is. I believe you are also earnest in your arguments. But you are flatly wrong. There is no sound reason to believe that there is a large silent portion of this pandemic that magically makes the whole population CFR less. There is instead the early phase of infection before symptoms are apparent, and the later phase where they are apparent.

If we're going to argue about fatality rates, it might be good to stick to accurate terminology.  CFR is, by definition, a case fatality rate.  A "case" is a person who comes to medical attention, by test or otherwise.  We have decent data on this.

Infected but untested people are not "cases."  These fall into an "infection fatality rate," or IFR.

The IFR is simply unknown.  We won't know the IFR until antibody tests are available.  Even if such a test gets rolled out tomorrow, it would be a challenge to interpret while the pandemic is growing in size.

In a year or two, we'll have a solid understanding of the IFR.  Until then, it's all speculative.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2652 on: March 14, 2020, 11:29:06 PM »

I know you want this to be less devastating than it is. I believe you are also earnest in your arguments. But you are flatly wrong. There is no sound reason to believe that there is a large silent portion of this pandemic that magically makes the whole population CFR less. There is instead the early phase of infection before symptoms are apparent, and the later phase where they are apparent.

If we're going to argue about fatality rates, it might be good to stick to accurate terminology.  CFR is, by definition, a case fatality rate.  A "case" is a person who comes to medical attention, by test or otherwise.  We have decent data on this.

Infected but untested people are not "cases."  These fall into an "infection fatality rate," or IFR.

The IFR is simply unknown.  We won't know the IFR until antibody tests are available.  Even if such a test gets rolled out tomorrow, it would be a challenge to interpret while the pandemic is growing in size.

In a year or two, we'll have a solid understanding of the IFR.  Until then, it's all speculative.

You are correct. Substitute IFR. Everything else remains exactly the same. Please stop arguing that this disease is anything less than 4% fatal to the general population, and devastating to another 6-11%. Unless of course it is your intent and desire for massive numbers of people to be killed and maimed. In that case I have no use for you, and I certainly cannot help you.

Sam

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2653 on: March 14, 2020, 11:34:03 PM »
I'm a little bit frustrated that we try to stay in the village, and when the kids go and play around, they find out that the other kids have friends coming from all over the country.

Your country is not very large, to say it mildly. Everything is within cycling distance.

The bad stuff is everywhere. Most likely also in your village.

edmountain

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Re: COVID-1
« Reply #2654 on: March 14, 2020, 11:57:50 PM »
On the flip side... if the tests are correct, we will know in about a week as a large percentage of those 500 become hospital patients.

...
My point was that the number of patients with the disease is likely larger (possibly much larger) than 500 because the apparent high pre-test probability and limited sensitivity of the test create many false negatives.

The flip side concerns the specificity of the test. However, with a large pre-test probability even a test with a modest specificity can have a high positive predictive value. As such, it's highly likely that many of the 500 do, in fact, have the disease; no need to wait a week to find out.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2655 on: March 15, 2020, 12:10:51 AM »

I know you want this to be less devastating than it is. I believe you are also earnest in your arguments. But you are flatly wrong. There is no sound reason to believe that there is a large silent portion of this pandemic that magically makes the whole population CFR less. There is instead the early phase of infection before symptoms are apparent, and the later phase where they are apparent.

If we're going to argue about fatality rates, it might be good to stick to accurate terminology.  CFR is, by definition, a case fatality rate.  A "case" is a person who comes to medical attention, by test or otherwise.  We have decent data on this.

Infected but untested people are not "cases."  These fall into an "infection fatality rate," or IFR.

The IFR is simply unknown.  We won't know the IFR until antibody tests are available.  Even if such a test gets rolled out tomorrow, it would be a challenge to interpret while the pandemic is growing in size.

In a year or two, we'll have a solid understanding of the IFR.  Until then, it's all speculative.

Thank you for this.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2656 on: March 15, 2020, 12:20:12 AM »
Germany has now closed their public venues.

The United States is less than a week behind Italy, France, Spain and Germany. A handful of States have begun responding. The National response is to hand it over to business to deal with.

Businesses response has been less than stellar. And in Google's case, they handed it back.

The US from the Federal level is sleep walking into catastrophe. With each passing day without massive actions to curtail the spread the ultimate death toll rises exponentially.

The collapse of a once great nation.

Sam

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2657 on: March 15, 2020, 12:34:12 AM »
So far 700 people have been tested in New-York, 500 of them tested positive.
That is an insane number of positive results for what is at this point essentially a screening test. Contrast this with where I work in Alberta where as of this morning there have been 7,108 tests done with 39 positives (source; accessed March 14).

In practice in New York this means the pre-test probability at the time the test is exceptionally high; in this setting it's impossible to conclude that a negative result is a true negative (barring a test with 100% sensitivity--and we know that's not the case).
If the testing capability is very low, then testing of someone probably only happens given the most alarming symptoms. So the data is of just about zero use and liable to confuse.
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edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2658 on: March 15, 2020, 01:04:43 AM »
...

If the testing capability is very low, then testing of someone probably only happens given the most alarming symptoms. So the data is of just about zero use and liable to confuse.
Exactly. For a high enough pre-test probability, false negatives outnumber true negatives. Negative results are therefore not to be believed. Moreover, false positives are relatively rare. Thus, the test does not alter management.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2659 on: March 15, 2020, 01:07:49 AM »
Coronavirus Update: Teaneck, New Jersey  Mayor Asks Residents To Self-Quarantine Population: 41,311
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-update-teaneck-mayor-asks-residents-to-self-quarantine/ar-BB10MoFN

Mohammed Hameeduddin, the mayor of Teaneck, New Jersey tells ABC News that he is requesting all residents to self-quarantine and only to leave their homes for food and medicine.

Hameeduddin said that his town is "ground zero" for the infections in the state. At the moment, Teaneck as 18 cases of COVID-19 but he believes people have been walking around with the virus for the past 4 weeks.

---------------------------

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-update-first-covid-19-related-death-reported-in-new-york-second-death-in-rockland-co/ar-BB11b9F3

... Of the 524 cases in New York state, 117 are hospitalized. Cuomo said that though that seems like a high rate of hospitalization, he believes the actual number of people who have coronavirus vastly exceeds the 524 cases that tested positive. He has long said he believes testing has lagged far behind the actual spread of the virus.

New York City has 183 cases, up 29 from Friday. Of those, 30 are hospitalized, with 19 in the ICU. Eighty percent of those hospitalized are over 50 years old or have preexisting conditions, de Blasio said

... Cuomo said he’s concerned about hospital capacity.

“The rate of hospitalization is what this is all about,” Cuomo said.

New York Presbyterian Hospital announced that it has “made the decision to postpone all elective procedures and surgeries beginning Monday, March 16, 2020 until further notice.”

----------------------------

Coronavirus Update: Trump doctor says president has tested negative for COVID-19
https://abc7ny.com/6013812/

President Donald Trump has tested negative for the new coronavirus, according to the president's personal physician.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 01:35:18 AM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2660 on: March 15, 2020, 01:18:43 AM »
The test are useful for contact tracing and epidemic management. If contact tracing is not possible, then a quarantine is the answer. Take the hit for a 3-4 weeks, start tracing again when the numbers go down.

Right now they are taking the most costly route in terms of lives and money. Is not that they are greedy. They just don’t know what they are doing.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2661 on: March 15, 2020, 01:32:46 AM »
21 COVID-19 cases among DoD personnel and dependents
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/prognosis-latest-news-coronavirus-national-security/163666/

3:35 PM: As of 5 a.m. on Saturday, there are 21 confirmed coronavirus cases among Defense Department personnel and dependents, a senior defense official told reporters.

10 servicemembers (one is hospitalized)
One civilian
Eight dependents
Two contractors (one is hospitalized)

------------------------------

Bottoned Up: No Visitors Allowed at ‘Underground Pentagon’ in Pennsylvania Mountains
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/prognosis-latest-news-coronavirus-national-security/163666/

10:04 PM: The U.S. Defense Department’s Raven Rock Complex in the Pennsylvania mountains is off-limits to visitors as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, according to a U.S. Air Force memo circulated throughout the service Friday. “No one may visit the Raven Rock Complex, unless an exception is approved through the service secretary to the director [of Washington Headquarters Services],” the memo states. Raven Rock is a sprawling complex that serves as a backup for the federal departments, as explained here by Garrett Graff, who wrote a book about the facility.

https://www.npr.org/2017/06/21/533711528/in-the-event-of-attack-heres-how-the-government-plans-to-save-itself

https://aboutcampdavid.blogspot.com/2011/08/raven-rock-mountain-complex.html?m=1

https://publicintelligence.net/raven-rock-mountain-complex-site-r/

http://cryptome.info/0001/anmcc.htm


------------------------------

‘Orderly Dismissal’ at USAF Academy

12:06 PM: The U.S. Air Force Academy has begun “an orderly dismissal of a large segment of our Cadet population” because of “the rapid spread of COVID‑19, and with multiple members of our base populace being monitored,” academy officials announced on Twitter and Facebook Friday.

---------------------------

North Korean Military Has Been On Lockdown: US Commander

09:07 AM: Gen. Robert Abrams, head of U.S. Forces in South Korea told Pentagon reporters via video conference on Friday that the North Korean military appeared to have been on lockdown thanks to the coronavirus — although the opaque regime has not admitted to having any cases. For 24 days, it did not fly a single plane, Abrams said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2662 on: March 15, 2020, 02:00:30 AM »
I saw this over at reddit. Had to share.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusWA/comments/fipnah/covid19_is_more_deadly_than_influenza_in_king/

Quote
Hello, I recently researched into the cases surrounding the first confirmed contact of Covid-19 in the US: in King County, Washington.
The first Washington case of the coronavirus (Covid-19) was January 21st within King County (Cite: CDC). On March 7th, there were 71 cases in King County (Cite: King County). On March 13th, there were 328 cases in King County (Cite: King County). The case count increased by 4.6 times the amount of cases in just six days. Of those 328 cases, 32 have died (Cite: King County). That’s a current 9.8% fatality rate. To compare to influenza (flu), from September 20th, 2019 until March 7th, in King County, there have been 19 deaths resulting from the flu (Cite: DOH - WA).

The first death of Covid-19 in King County was March 1st. In twelve days, there has been 32 deaths in King County due to Covid-19. In the past six months, there have been 19 deaths in King County due to the flu.

For those that are making jokes about it or still not taking it seriously (even after the Rudy Gobert incident), I hope you can utilize this to show them that it is serious. Without the proper testing and quarantining, we could hit the higher end of estimates with infection and death. Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic and as many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die (Cite: NYT).
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2663 on: March 15, 2020, 02:12:59 AM »
The test are useful for contact tracing and epidemic management. If contact tracing is not possible, then a quarantine is the answer. Take the hit for a 3-4 weeks, start tracing again when the numbers go down.

Right now they are taking the most costly route in terms of lives and money. Is not that they are greedy. They just don’t know what they are doing.
Testing has another important role which is to exclude covid-19 in those patients presenting with an influenza-like illness so that they can avoid being in isolation for 2 weeks or more and get back to being productive members of society. This is particularly important for health care workers.

However, the test is only useful in this regard for low pretest probabilities. If the numbers from New York that Alexander posted are accurate then the pretest probability in that sample is actually quite high; the test is therefore not helpful at excluding the disease in those individuals.

As you suggested: they seem to have botched it.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2664 on: March 15, 2020, 02:23:00 AM »
I would at least quarantine them. Even if it is not Covid19. We need the hospital beds.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2665 on: March 15, 2020, 02:51:23 AM »
The test are useful for contact tracing and epidemic management. If contact tracing is not possible, then a quarantine is the answer. Take the hit for a 3-4 weeks, start tracing again when the numbers go down.

Right now they are taking the most costly route in terms of lives and money. Is not that they are greedy. They just don’t know what they are doing.
Testing has another important role which is to exclude covid-19 in those patients presenting with an influenza-like illness so that they can avoid being in isolation for 2 weeks or more and get back to being productive members of society. This is particularly important for health care workers.

We do have rapid tests for influenza (and other respiratory tract pathogens).  I would suggest that anyone anywhere with fever+cough deserves a rapid influenza test.  If negative, a Covid test.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2666 on: March 15, 2020, 03:16:41 AM »
I was just looking through the nextstrain data.

There may be another difference that ties South Korea and China ex Hubei together.

Both are part of the B Clade.  We know that the strain in Washington State is lethal. That’s the B1 Clade.

Hubei is in A clade. That is lethal.

Much of the rest of China seems to be B clade. South Korea is also mostly B clade.

I cannot easily tell from the data, but it may be that most or all of the B clade group, sans B1 may be less fatal than the A clade groups (and B1 - US).

So who here can make sense of that and plot out the lethality of the various clade strains?

Sam

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2667 on: March 15, 2020, 03:17:18 AM »
❤️

Quote
José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) 3/14/20, 6:22 PM
From a friend in Spain: “So, there was a call on social media today in Spain to go out to balconies and windows at 22:00 to give a huge ovation to thank and support hospital workers. It’s 22:05 and I can hear the roar from the other side of the closed double glass windows.”
https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1238953608344936448

Miguel Corrales (@MAGUEL4) 3/14/20, 6:56 PM
Barcelona
https://twitter.com/maguel4/status/1238962136665260036

Comma, (@Comasegundo) 3/14/20, 6:31 PM
In Madrid
https://twitter.com/comasegundo/status/1238956058741297159

Brief videos at each link (or see the replies to the first).
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edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2668 on: March 15, 2020, 03:18:44 AM »
...

We do have rapid tests for influenza (and other respiratory tract pathogens).  I would suggest that anyone anywhere with fever+cough deserves a rapid influenza test.  If negative, a Covid test.
The appropriate testing depends on the setting.

In the case of an ambulatory outpatient only the covid test is of any real value at this point. That's because for any other pathogen the advice is go home until you feel well then return to work. This advice does not change regardless of the non-covid pathogen found. However, for covid the advice is to isolate for 14 days (minimum) and initiate contact tracing. The covid test thus has important implications both for patient disposition and public health. Again, this is all for ambulatory outpatients: the walking well if you will.

For hospitalized patients it's totally different. In this setting you want to test for both covid and non-covid pathogens so that patients can be properly cohorted. You would not want to cohort an influenza patient with a covid patient, for example. There may also be treatment implications, e.g. antiviral choices, although that's a whole other conversation. In Alberta hospitals we use the Luminex RPP for non-covid pathogens and a non-commercial test for covid that's been validated against the test created at the National Micro Lab in Winnipeg.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2669 on: March 15, 2020, 04:19:34 AM »

I know you want this to be less devastating than it is. I believe you are also earnest in your arguments. But you are flatly wrong. There is no sound reason to believe that there is a large silent portion of this pandemic that magically makes the whole population CFR less. There is instead the early phase of infection before symptoms are apparent, and the later phase where they are apparent.

If we're going to argue about fatality rates, it might be good to stick to accurate terminology.  CFR is, by definition, a case fatality rate.  A "case" is a person who comes to medical attention, by test or otherwise.  We have decent data on this.

Infected but untested people are not "cases."  These fall into an "infection fatality rate," or IFR.

The IFR is simply unknown.  We won't know the IFR until antibody tests are available.  Even if such a test gets rolled out tomorrow, it would be a challenge to interpret while the pandemic is growing in size.

In a year or two, we'll have a solid understanding of the IFR.  Until then, it's all speculative.

You are correct. Substitute IFR. Everything else remains exactly the same. Please stop arguing that this disease is anything less than 4% fatal to the general population, and devastating to another 6-11%. Unless of course it is your intent and desire for massive numbers of people to be killed and maimed. In that case I have no use for you, and I certainly cannot help you.

Sam

Considering the shortness of test kits and the testing of only the severe cases, I would say your numbers are too high - possibly by a lot.  After the initial onslaught, the cfr in China has fallen to under 1.  I find your claims of omnipotence recording this virus to be rather egotistical.  Why do you think are right and those who disagree are wrong?

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2670 on: March 15, 2020, 04:28:05 AM »
...

We do have rapid tests for influenza (and other respiratory tract pathogens).  I would suggest that anyone anywhere with fever+cough deserves a rapid influenza test.  If negative, a Covid test.
In the case of an ambulatory outpatient only the covid test is of any real value at this point. That's because for any other pathogen the advice is go home until you feel well then return to work. This advice does not change regardless of the non-covid pathogen found. However, for covid the advice is to isolate for 14 days (minimum) and initiate contact tracing. The covid test thus has important implications both for patient disposition and public health. Again, this is all for ambulatory outpatients: the walking well if you will.

The point is that a rapid influenza test is simple, easy, and quick.  A positive test then obviates the need for Covid testing, which is slow, expensive, and in short supply.  Influenza can be treated with approved medications.

If the influenza test is negative, the probability of Covid is higher.  This affects how such patients are managed until test results are back, and affects one's confidence that a negative result isn't a false-negative.  Re-testing the negatives then becomes a more reasonable course of action.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2671 on: March 15, 2020, 04:54:12 AM »
So if there is a test shortage ( there isn't) top priority goes to hospitalized patients for cohorting purposes. Then the next priority would be epidemiology? Information is vital for decision making and decision making is more important than ever during crisis like these. Patient with mild flu like symptoms should just get the quarantine recommendation.

 At this point, anyone with flu symptoms should just stay home.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2672 on: March 15, 2020, 04:58:57 AM »
  I find your claims of omnipotence recording this virus to be rather egotistical.  Why do you think are right and those who disagree are wrong?

Number 1. I don’t claim omnipotence. I follow the data where it leads. I show my math, and I explain my reasoning. I am very open to information that conflicts with anything I write. You can believe what you like. It won’t hurt my feelings. My skin is far thicker than that.

As to why I think I am right? Well, because I can read, and I can do simple math. There are nearly 6,000 people dead already. We have a rapidly exploding pandemic shutting down the whole freaking world’s economy. And we are on course now to kill over 100 million people.

Beyond that, I have spent a lifetime in emergency management and response. I have lived with exponential growth problems my whole career and I know just how fast they get out of control. I have run nuclear reactors in crisis conditions. I have been bathed in corrosive chemicals and breathed toxic gases. I have literally had my skin turned to soap in a gas spray release. I have been in 175F environments, and high rad fields. I have been inside a biosafety level 2 facility. And I have personally worn nearly every kind of protective gear you can imagine, save BSL4, and loose plutonium surface contamination bubble suits and gear. i was invited to tour through the destroyed unit 4 reactor core at Chernobyl and I was invited to tour Fukushima. I declined both.

I have done engineering forensic analyses of many types. And I have worked with, and yes argued with, some of the finest scientists on earth in dozens of fields.

The problem here is straight forward. Choosing to cherry pick low data assures disaster. Choosing disaster is blitheringly stupid. This is not a linear problem. This isn’t even a problem of low-risk, high-consequence. This is a much more straight forward problem. It is a highly lethal pandemic spreading like chicken pox with a lethality that is high, perhaps half that of the Spanish flu. And if we screw up even a little and overwhelm our hospitals, it may equal the lethality of Spanish flu.

Treating it with any less respect than that deserves is the pinnacle of arrogance and stupidity. And no, I do not care one whit if that hurts your feelings. That is not ever a goal. But if one consequence is that I bruise your ego, so be it. The data speaks for itself. Peoples lives are at immediate risk. And I ignore fools in a crisis, unless they need to be dealt with because they are making the problem worse. You are making the problem worse. Stop doing that. Peoples lives are at stake.

Sam
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 05:19:58 AM by Sam »

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2673 on: March 15, 2020, 05:41:41 AM »
...

The point is that a rapid influenza test is simple, easy, and quick.  A positive test then obviates the need for Covid testing, which is slow, expensive, and in short supply.  Influenza can be treated with approved medications.

If the influenza test is negative, the probability of Covid is higher.  This affects how such patients are managed until test results are back, and affects one's confidence that a negative result isn't a false-negative.  Re-testing the negatives then becomes a more reasonable course of action.
Point-of-care influenza tests may be easy and quick but their interpretation is not so simple. Just as with any other diagnostic test, it's not a binary "yes" or "no" because every test has limited sensitivity and specificity. Interpretation of the result is heavily reliant upon the pretest probability which, in the case of influenza, corresponds to the degree of influenza activity in the community.

My concern with your strategy is therefore that all influenza tests, whether it's molecular assays or RIDT at point-of-care or RT-PCR in a lab, suffer from poor positive predictive power when influenza activity is low. So while influenza activity is currently high it's already decreasing in both the USA and Canada. At some point soon the risk of a false positive test will become unacceptably high leading to false reassurance that a patient with ILI symptoms is suffering from influenza when in fact they have another disease.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2674 on: March 15, 2020, 07:28:05 AM »
Sam,

You claim that you are objective and use the math and if someone else comes to a different conclusion is delusional. I claim the same except saying that you are delusional.

As for your arguments, they are very weak:

"South Korea and China ex Hubei remain open questions as to why their reported CFRs are lower. Age distributions appear to play an important role."

Definitely not between Hubei and notHubei and not much between Korea and Europe. You can't explain it away like that.

" Reporting may as well (I.e. assignment of deaths to causes other than COVID for various reasons)."

So, me claiming that mild cases are not counted (which we know is true and was widespread in Hubei) because they had not enough resorces is false, but you claiming that they outright falsified the data is right. Strange argument.

"Delays in reporting may too."

Chinese numbers are not growing for 3 weeks, so this one is pretty ridiculous.

"The choice to use Chloroquine and other drugs/herbs may also play a central role. I sincerely hope they do."

This is your only POSSIBLY valid argument for the difference between Korea and Europe, but it is also not valid when looking at Hubei and exHubei.

"We do not know with any certainty what the causes are, or even that they are actually real."

I like this one. The numbers might not even be real and even if they are we do not know why. OK then.

I am trying to be totally objective here and at first thought that this disease could be 10-20% lethal (and was scared to shit) but later as the data changed I changed my mind. I am flexible - when the data change, I change my mind, as I have been analyizing all sorts of (often very tricky) data for 30yrs. I am also willing to change my mind any time if I here a good argument. I have not - yet.

You making me the villain, ie. that by me trying to MAKE it look less lethal than it actually is truly bad. Science is about arguments and counterarguments, facts and data. If one side says that you can not say your point of view because that point of view is evil is not science, that is the Middle Ages.

I have argued for extreme quarantines a la China, to close all workplaces and everyone stay the **** home - unfortunately Europe and the US are not brave enough to do that. It does not matter whether it is 1% or 5%, we should (have) stopped it quickly to avoid possibly millions of deaths. I am 100% percent for stopping this as it was proven that it can be done with harsh measures. Do not blame me for politicians' stupidity!

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2675 on: March 15, 2020, 07:49:02 AM »
It seems that Ibuprofen should never been used with Covid19. For sure my son didn't support it well when he had his wierd flu last week, so we only gave him paracetamol.
Testing was at that time not available for people who didn't travel in northern Italy. Now it's only available for serious cases.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2676 on: March 15, 2020, 08:14:11 AM »
The people who are providing the stats and news updates here are providing a service that I am glad is happening.

One thing I wish would stop is arguing over numbers and who is more right and wrong.
The stats are changeable, inaccurate for multiple reasons and subject to rapid changes. Yet they each bring new information regardless of who presents them.

If one person say 6% and has supporting evidence and reasoning, listen to it.
If a person says 1% and has supporting evidence and reasoning, listen to it.
It isnt a contest of who is more right or who can project the best, it is information sharing that has value.

Please keep sharing, but can the debate over who is right and wrong stop?
We will have the answers soon enough, and the answers are going to be unpleasant enough as it is.
We can learn a lot from all information.... and if people say something that is clearly wrong, provide the supporting evidence. If the person sharing wrong info changes their mind, just own up to the mistake and move on.... it is information and learning that matters, doubling down on information that is wrong because of ego is ugly to see.

I might be out of place saying this, if so, let me know and I will apologize.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2677 on: March 15, 2020, 08:18:10 AM »
One thing I wish would stop is arguing over numbers

+1

I find it amazing that people who stated awfully wrong things before feel entitled to question anything at all (looking at you El Cid).

Overwhelmed? Are you serious? If they have 10 000 (and allegedly they had 2-3 k a few days ago) cases, then at most 1000-1500 are serious and 500 requiring serious hospitalization. You don't overwhelm Italy with that many cases. That is not a valid explanation.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2678 on: March 15, 2020, 08:47:54 AM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/davcarretta/status/1238791068071661568

Graphs are useful but to really get what that rising curve is, have a look at the obituaries page of this Bergamo daily newspaper, comparing one from February with one from now. Video at link
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2679 on: March 15, 2020, 08:50:58 AM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/davcarretta/status/1238791068071661568

Graphs are useful but to really get what that rising curve is, have a look at the obituaries page of this Bergamo daily newspaper, comparing one from February with one from now. Video at link
Wow

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2680 on: March 15, 2020, 09:31:17 AM »
Sometimes I am tempted to change my vote to the hundreds of millions, as I see us dropping the ball on stopping this. I originally meant to make votes changeable (messed that up).
Anybody wish they could change what they voted?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2681 on: March 15, 2020, 09:45:34 AM »
My vote was 1-10 million. That was my take at the end of February, with the situation back then.

Why not keep the current outcome as the way (or: different ways) we viewed it 'back in the old days'?
Just like the quarterly-or-so polls on the Arctic sea ice some time ago.

In my view, starting a new poll could be done on a new thread.
And yes, I know some people regard polls like this unethical - but isn't that influenced by the many non-serious polls one is requested to take part in nowadays?
I agree with the point made somewhere upthread that COVID-19 and climate change are both very serious issues, although they are taking place on different timescales.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2682 on: March 15, 2020, 09:45:56 AM »
Sometimes I am tempted to change my vote to the hundreds of millions, as I see us dropping the ball on stopping this. I originally meant to make votes changeable (messed that up).
Anybody wish they could change what they voted?

I voted 100 million plus.
I am sticking with it.
My fear when I first heard about it was entirely based around how well the virus spreads and being able to spread without symptoms.
I also figured that the world would not do enough until it is too late.

Nothing has happened since I thought that to change my thinking. This is going to be a painful year.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2683 on: March 15, 2020, 10:03:57 AM »
Japanese man tests positive for virus again — two weeks after apparent recovery
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-trump-tests-negative-physician-says-health-screenings-cause-massive-delays-at-us-airports/ar-BB11aDPr?OCID=bingcoronaviruslinks

TOKYO — A Japanese man who apparently recovered from the coronavirus two weeks ago has again fallen ill and tested positive, public broadcaster NHK reported on Sunday.

The man, who is in his 70s, first tested positive for the virus on Feb. 14 while on board the quarantined cruise ship, the Diamond Princess.

He recovered and was discharged from a medical facility in Tokyo on March 2, NHK reported. It has been standard practice in Japanese hospitals to demand at least two negative tests before releasing patients.

He then returned to his home in Mie prefecture in central Japan by public transport.

But he came down with a fever of 39 degrees Celsius (102.2 Fahrenheit) on Thursday, NHK reported. He went to hospital on Friday, took a test and was shown to have the virus on Saturday.

----------------------------

80% of South Korea's cases are linked to cluster transmissions
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-2-03-15-20-intl-hnk/

About 80% of all coronavirus cases in South Korea are associated with cluster transmissions, according to the country’s Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).

The country has reported 8,162 cases and 75 deaths.

Several clusters have been found around the country. The Shincheonji religious group, based in the southern city of Daegu, is the biggest cluster; 74% of all cases nationwide are from the city.

Nationally, 60% of all cases are linked to the group, said the KCDC release.

Officials identified another cluster at a call center in Seoul this week, which has led to 124 cases so far.

Another cluster is within the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, where 29 people have tested positive.

----------------------------

Surge in coronavirus patients threatens to swamp U.S. hospitals
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/14/hospital-doctors-patients-coronavirus/

Hospitals across the United States are erecting triage tents outside emergency rooms, squeezing extra beds into break rooms and physical therapy gyms, and recommending delays in elective surgery to free up capacity as they brace for an anticipated surge in coronavirus patients.

With stories from Italy about hospitals turning away patients with severe respiratory symptoms, health-care executives say they are doing whatever they can to plug holes in a U.S. system that they acknowledge is not prepared to handle the worst effects of the pandemic.

----------------------------

Total number of coronavirus cases in India rise to 107
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/newsindia/coronavirus-outbreak-live-updates/ar-BB11cK86

Ministry of Family and Health Welfare: Total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases across India is 107 (including foreign nationals as on March 15 at 12 pm)

---------------------------

New health screenings cause hours-long delays at U.S. airports
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-trump-tests-negative-physician-says-health-screenings-cause-massive-delays-at-us-airports/ar-BB11aDPr?OCID=bingcoronaviruslinks

Liz Hoyer, a 46-year-old teacher in Texas, was waiting anxiously across the country Saturday night as her parents — both in their 70s — waded through the thick crowd at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport.

President Trump had announced a ban on travel from most of Europe while the couple was still in the air on their way to Germany. They booked the earliest flight they could back to O’Hare, one of the only U.S. airports still accepting European flights.

Now they were caught up in the hours-long waits at airports around the country hit by the Trump administration’s new screening requirements for people returning from much of the continent. The president announced the new rules — which kicked in Friday at midnight — as a dramatic new measure to combat the coronavirus pandemic, but Hoyer worried that the clogged situation at O’Hare is only making the spread of the virus more likely.

There’s no getting away from the other people — and the risk of infection, she said.

“The last thing Mom texted me, a few minutes ago,” she said, “was that they were safer in Germany than they are in this crowd.”

On Saturday, social media filled with scenes of chaos at the 13 U.S. airports where authorities say all Americans flying home from Europe are now being routed. Photos captured clogged hallways and standing-room-only lines as airports apologized for the delays, attributing them to new screening measures

----------------------------

Illinois governor: "The federal government needs to get its s@#t together"
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-2-03-15-20-intl-hnk/

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker expressed strong dissatisfaction with federal authorities after American travelers returning to the country were forced to wait in long lines for hours to get through customs.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GovPritzker/status/1239021033191018497

https://mobile.twitter.com/GovPritzker/status/1239021035611095040

Passengers at Chicago's O'Hare airport told CNN they had been waiting for up to five hours in line, with no hand sanitizers in sight. Photos from the airport show crowds jammed together as they wait, with only a few people wearing face masks.

-----------------------------

Hoboken announces night curfew, restrictions on bars and restaurants
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-trump-tests-negative-physician-says-health-screenings-cause-massive-delays-at-us-airports/ar-BB11aDPr?OCID=bingcoronaviruslinks

In a statement, Mayor Ravi Bhalla said all residents of Hoboken, New Jersey, will be required to remain in their homes between 10 pm and 5 am, “except for emergencies, or if you are required to work by your employer”.

The curfew will be in effect nightly from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. starting Monday. During that time, all residents will be required to stay in their homes except for emergencies and required work.

Additionally, bars and restaurants will no longer be allowed to serve food within their establishments, and bars that only serve alcohol will have to shut down entirely. Food service will be limited to takeout and delivery only.

The extraordinary moves came just days after officials reported the first confirmed case of coronavirus in the city of 55,000.

--------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2684 on: March 15, 2020, 10:19:18 AM »
UK Government Calls on Manufacturing Companies to Switch Production to Ventilators
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said government was working with the private sector to buy the ventilators that are available and to encourage manufacturing companies to switch production to the machines.

Quote
... We are working to buy as many ventilators as possible. We start with around 5,000 and we need many times more than that.

The demand for them is incredibly high. It is not possible to produce too many of them. Anybody who can should turn their production and engineering minds to the production of ventilators.

However, he could not confirm everyone who requires one will have access, and he confirmed that the government is set to ask, at some point in the coming weeks, over 70s to self-isolate for months at some point in the UK.

--------------------------------

UK over-70s to be asked to self isolate for up to four months
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy

Here is some from Hancock’s announcement earlier. He said requesting all over 70-year-olds to self-isolate is a “very big ask”, but is a measure which is for their own “self-protection”.

In the coming weeks, over 70’s will be asked to self-isolate for up to four months, in order to protect them from the virus, he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 10:44:04 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

NevB

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2685 on: March 15, 2020, 10:27:22 AM »
Our government has released a very helpful video



Warning don't watch this if you don't like bad language.

Aporia_filia

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2686 on: March 15, 2020, 10:52:24 AM »
This is what should be expected in days like these. Maybe some of the very bright people in this forum could help, or get in touch with some who could help!

Doctors, engineers, designers and more professional volunteers have started to organize themselves telematically to develop cheap and fast ventilation solutions for patients infected with coronavirus. Respirators are a necessary input to care for those affected, who arrive with symptoms such as fever and dry cough, and could double in the coming days in Spain, according to the government. Faced with a possible scenario in which these high-tech devices are missing, experts are seeking to provide open source plans to replicate the simplest devices easily.

Jorge Barrero @Jorge_barrero_f

Esta mañana 25 médicos, ingenieros, emprendedores, makers hemos creado un grupo de WhatsApp para pensar posibles soluciones baratas y rápidas de ventilación de pacientes. Ahora descubro no estamos solos... nos sumamos a Open Source Ventilator Project! #cheapVentilators https://twitter.com/ColinJ_Keogh/status/1237865545623461891
Colin Keogh 🛠 @ColinJ_Keogh

Calling all #doctors, #Engineers and #Designers? Join the amazing Open Source Ventilator Project to give your time and expertise to help develop low-cost ventilators to fight #COVID19.

I joined the fight via https://bit.ly/3cMLUwJ #coronavirus #COVID2019IRELAND #technology
Ver imagen en Twitter

As the number of infected people in the country grows and hospitals fill up, the conversation in a Telegram group that already has more than 580 participants did not stop this Friday morning. Dozens of professionals were racing against the clock to develop a cheap, simple-to-use and easy-to-manufacture device:

-I'm now taking the fan model and modifying it to make an outline; I already have the pseudo code of the software.

-We need someone with knowledge of pneumology.

-Should it mimic a typical bottle respirator? -I'm not sure.

-I have a 3-D printer, if that's what it takes.

The ideas added up; there were moments of "chaos", according to some participants; someone created an Excel of volunteers that grew with the passing of the hours; an anaesthetist from Tenerife and an engineer from Geneva signed up; suddenly, someone began to speak in English; videos from Youtube were exchanged about past solutions, information from printed manuals, hand sketches... Reflection advanced.

"There are many people who are very interested in doing something. So putting collective intelligence to work is not a bad thing," says David Cuartielles, an engineer and founder of Arduino, a free software and hardware development company. He adds: "It serves as a catharsis, but it can also help to arrive at a valid technical solution.

In the next few days, there will be more people infected with coronavirus, according to the Ministry of Health. The president, Pedro Sánchez, has declared a state of alarm for 15 days and does not rule out that the number of infected people will reach 10,000 next week. In Madrid, for example, where almost half of the infections in Spain are concentrated, the regional executive has announced that hotels, residences and homes will begin to function as makeshift hospitals.

"If we witness a very high peak, the capacities to provide assistance are limited because equipment is very expensive and hospitals cannot have hundreds of teams waiting for a pandemic outbreak. Hence the question: can we do something perhaps not so sophisticated but which solves or helps in this situation," biochemist Jorge Barrero, director of the Cotec Foundation and promoter of another initiative called Innovative Breathing Assistance (IBA), questioned this Thursday.

The biochemist was "desperate" after a week at home and concerned about "being useful" in this pandemic, which has killed more than 5,000 people worldwide. He contacted three experts, who believed that it was possible to develop or adapt some "not-so-advanced" technology to provide an emergency service, and set up a WhatsApp team, which soon grew to include about twenty other professionals.

In less than 24 hours, they defined three lines of action with parallel roadmaps to look for "diverse solutions". They are working on it. One line of work aims to develop simple, cheap, rapid manufacturing and distribution systems from scratch; another seeks to adapt pre-existing technology, such as that used by apnoea sufferers; the last one aims to support the industry that manufactures these devices to "get there sooner and with more" supplies.

A hundred experts - some "from the trenches" and others from home - have made themselves available to this initiative, according to Barrero, and are now being organised under the coordination of Tecnalia, a public technology centre in the Basque Country. The development has just begun. "There is no solution, there is a team analysing various strategies. It may be that an interesting result will be reached, several or none", says Barrero.

The biochemist points out that "there are several technologies" that the experts will be able to contemplate. "For example, there are systems that can be used only with the patient asleep; others that can be used with the patient awake, but not for long; some are more efficient, others are simpler to manufacture or less expensive... There is a whole world and the debate now is where we are going to aim the shot to make some useful contribution.

More professionals are working from other groups, although in the same direction and connected. "People keep writing and they've managed themselves. It's nice to see how they have come together," says Esther Borao, an industrial engineer specializing in automation and robotics and director of the Instituto Tecnológico de Aragón, which created the Telegram group that brings together 580 professionals almost in parallel to Borrero.

Borao points out that "there are many challenges" now, but stresses that "the biggest" is that "people are at home so that there are no more infections and hospitals are not saturated. "I hope we don't need respirators," he said.

In other countries, such as the United States and China, similar initiatives have been launched almost at the same time and, on Twitter, the English hashtag #cheapventilators (cheap respirators, in Spanish) has emerged. "We are not alone. If it's not us, someone will get an answer. It's about working in cooperation," Barrero says.

"We have to understand that we are all connected and that the virus' capacity to infect is the same that we have to achieve so that the right messages are spread and the initiatives escalate," defends the biochemist. Barrero assures that to "fight the virus" it is important to act "as a single super-organism": "We cannot live this as an individual disease, because it is not".

Translated with the help of Deepl, from "eldiario.es"

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2687 on: March 15, 2020, 10:58:02 AM »
It is difficult to do the right thing. Many families in Norway are fleeing the city, working remotely from their cabins in the countryside.

But now the government is ordering them to return to their homes, because this would overwhelm healthcare in the countryside, where the average age is higher. If necessary by force (civil defense forces).

Wow. I don't think the preppers were prepared for that.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2688 on: March 15, 2020, 11:10:08 AM »
Yes, this is a WOW moment. Still, i think they are doing the right thing.

It's either our govs become more authoritarian in order to solve this crisis or it will drive the death count up.

To be clear, i'm not supporting authoritarianism per se. I'm supporting the right tool for the right issue.

We all have mixed societies. Some are more on the socialist side, some more on the capitalist side. I support socialism when it comes to infrastructure. I support capitalism when it comes to goods and services. And i support authoritarianism when it comes to catastrophes like this. I'm only pragmatic here.

I hope governments don't fear becoming more authoritarian in a false understanding of freedom. After all, having your life saved is the ultimate freedom.
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2689 on: March 15, 2020, 11:17:54 AM »
It is difficult to do the right thing. Many families in Norway are fleeing the city, working remotely from their cabins in the countryside.

But now the government is ordering them to return to their homes, because this would overwhelm healthcare in the countryside, where the average age is higher. If necessary by force (civil defense forces).

Wow. I don't think the preppers were prepared for that.

I think the whole idea is to not overload health care in the cities as well as avoid infection altogether. A friend of a friend took his family and elderly mother out to a cabin in the countryside  and plans to stay there isolated a couple of months. They are NOT infected and plan to stay that way. Their pressure on the health care system in the countryside is zero.

I think the government in Norway got this wrong.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2690 on: March 15, 2020, 11:21:54 AM »
They are NOT infected

How do they know?
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2691 on: March 15, 2020, 11:47:35 AM »
I think the government in Norway got this wrong.

Albania is doing the same thing. People are ordered back to Tirana by 20:00 hours this evening.

Yes, massive flight would overwhelm healthcare on the countryside.

Amazing and unexpected decisions, but totally correct in my opinion.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2692 on: March 15, 2020, 12:35:29 PM »
Over at reddit

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2693 on: March 15, 2020, 01:04:59 PM »
If you're in the UK, hide. They are sleepwalking right into this.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2694 on: March 15, 2020, 01:10:04 PM »
If you're in the UK, hide. They are sleepwalking right into this.

I disagree. Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been very clear about what is coming. They were much better at communicating the situation than the Swedish state epidemiologist. But the policies are about the same here.

And I booked a table in the center tonight. The owners wrote that they need customers. 

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2695 on: March 15, 2020, 01:24:47 PM »
Quote
And I booked a table in the center tonight. The owners wrote that they need customers.

If it was just the CFR I would say, good riddance. But the R0 will make it so that this decision affect others than you. 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2696 on: March 15, 2020, 01:35:09 PM »
If you're in the UK, hide. They are sleepwalking right into this.

I disagree. Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been very clear about what is coming. They were much better at communicating the situation than the Swedish state epidemiologist.
The UK government is struggling to cope, just like most others. They announce plans, then retract them. They try to reassure, then go quiet when people point out that "it ain't going to work like that."

The latest, announced by "a senior government source" last night was that all over 70s will be forced to quarantine themselves "for their own safety". This sounded like one of Dominic Cummings' weird ideas. (Dominic Cummings is a friend of the Prime Minister, non-elected but with great power in the government. Seems to be fireproof, but a lot of people are hoping he'll overstep the mark one day.)

Today the Health Minister was saying the same thing. I can't see it working.

A lot of politicians, both national and local, are over 70. As are members of the judiciary, ranging from magistrates up to the Supreme Court. Actors, including many of our "national treasures". Captains of Industry - chairmen, CEOs etc. Churches will be emptied - which will help, as we have many priests over 70. And a vast number of Conservative Party members, most of whom voted for Boris Johnson and for Brexit. That's quite a big constituency of influential people.

And, of course, me. I'm 72, and still working. It's a two-man operation, and I'm the only one who knows how to use the computer. Yes, the boss could probably get someone else in, but he'd have to pay a lot more. I'm only taking minimum wage, as I have three pensions to live on and I enjoy my work. He couldn't afford to pay the going rate, and even then (preens slightly) they wouldn't be able to do what I can do. I'm fit and active - everything the government has been saying us oldies should be. Now I'm going to be told that I have to stay indoors and gently deteriorate.

The only saving grace I can see is that they're already short of prison space, and wouldn't be able to accommodate even a tenth of those of us that raise a finger to them.
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colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2697 on: March 15, 2020, 01:39:09 PM »
Switzerland 842 new cases, until now daily new cases range was between 200-300. :o

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2698 on: March 15, 2020, 01:42:17 PM »
Quote
And I booked a table in the center tonight. The owners wrote that they need customers.

If it was just the CFR I would say, good riddance. But the R0 will make it so that this decision affect others than you.

Wow, that was friendly!

Read some: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Quote
As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”

Fortunately, there are other ways to slow an outbreak. Above all, health officials have encouraged people to avoid public gatherings, to stay home more often and to keep their distance from others. If people are less mobile and interact with each other less, the virus has fewer opportunities to spread.

The restaurant has taken measures. No buffet anymore. No crowding. And I am doing as the experts at the Swedish health authority recommend in the current situation.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2699 on: March 15, 2020, 01:47:25 PM »

You are correct. Substitute IFR. Everything else remains exactly the same. Please stop arguing that this disease is anything less than 4% fatal to the general population, and devastating to another 6-11%. Unless of course it is your intent and desire for massive numbers of people to be killed and maimed. In that case I have no use for you, and I certainly cannot help you.

Sam

Considering the shortness of test kits and the testing of only the severe cases, I would say your numbers are too high - possibly by a lot.  After the initial onslaught, the cfr in China has fallen to under 1.  I find your claims of omnipotence recording this virus to be rather egotistical.  Why do you think are right and those who disagree are wrong?

The Diamond Princess controlled experiment demonstrated that, even with a population that skewed older than the general population and thus more vulnerable, the CFR and IFR are around 1% if the patients can get exceptional medical care. This is the lower bound for what we can expect worldwide. In this experiment, the IFR and CFR are the same as all infected persons were identified.

Wuhan, Italy, Iran and soon other nations will provide us with evidence regarding the CFR we can expect when the health care system is overwhelmed and large numbers of desperately ill people are essentially left to their own devices. The problem with these CFR numbers is we will never understand fully the IFR in these countries as their failed heath care system can't possibly identify all that are infected.

Last I checked, the CFR in Italy is around 7%.