Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 384930 times)

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 325
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 263
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2700 on: March 15, 2020, 01:53:56 PM »
Wuhan, Italy, Iran and soon other nations will provide us with evidence regarding the CFR we can expect when the health care system is overwhelmed and desperately ill people are essentially left to their own devices. The problem with these CFR numbers is we will never understand fully the IFR in these countries as their failed heath care system can't possibly identify all that are infected.

Last I checked, the CFR in Italy is around 7%.
One will be able to count the total number of extra dead and one can safely assume that those are due to corona. And one can assume that the whole population was infected or at least exposed to the virus.

In a couple of months from now, with the statistics kept here: http://www.euromomo.eu/

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1784
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2701 on: March 15, 2020, 02:07:04 PM »
...
The latest, announced by "a senior government source" last night was that all over 70s will be forced to quarantine themselves "for their own safety". This sounded like one of Dominic Cummings' weird ideas. (Dominic Cummings is a friend of the Prime Minister, non-elected but with great power in the government. Seems to be fireproof, but a lot of people are hoping he'll overstep the mark one day.)

Today the Health Minister was saying the same thing. I can't see it working.

A lot of politicians, both national and local, are over 70. As are members of the judiciary, ranging from magistrates up to the Supreme Court. Actors, including many of our "national treasures". Captains of Industry - chairmen, CEOs etc. Churches will be emptied - which will help, as we have many priests over 70. And a vast number of Conservative Party members, most of whom voted for Boris Johnson and for Brexit. That's quite a big constituency of influential people.

And, of course, me. I'm 72, and still working. ...I'm fit and active - everything the government has been saying us oldies should be. Now I'm going to be told that I have to stay indoors and gently deteriorate.
Many presume that being a fit, active 72 year-old makes them lower risk than a sedentary 72 year-old.  I'm not aware of any data to support that presumption.

My impression is that most of the risk factors for bad outcome derive from higher levels of ACE2 expression in tissues.  ACE2 is the portal of entry for the virus.

I'm not aware that being fit lowers ACE2 receptor expression.  Perhaps it does.  I wouldn't gamble on that.

If society would suffer from all the over 70s sequestering themselves for some months, imagine if many of them would disappear from their jobs and communities forever. 

I think the suggestion is prudent.  Avoiding contact with others doesn't mean losing fitness, though it would, admittedly, make that more common.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2702 on: March 15, 2020, 02:25:39 PM »
"He can't possibly botch this worse than the wildfires"

BUCKLE UP BUCKEROO

The prime minister of Australia just made an announcement that schools would not close as that would help spread the virus and that instead, schoolchildren should stay 1.5 meters away from each other while at school.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fixfld/the_prime_minister_of_australia_just_made_an/

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 591
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 182
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2703 on: March 15, 2020, 02:36:33 PM »
Until I see a country continue to double up into the millions of infected and 4+% CFR I will hope that Sam is being unduly alarming.  While I wait and watch my family and I are on total shutdown. We are well-provisioned and can (and will) hunker down for the next several weeks at least. 

Sam, I hope you are being unduly alarmist.  The numbers are highly alarming and suggest a dire outcome. The worst outcomes are the result of the very last one or two doublings. We shall see.

greylib

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 108
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 118
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2704 on: March 15, 2020, 02:36:46 PM »
...
The latest, announced by "a senior government source" last night was that all over 70s will be forced to quarantine themselves "for their own safety".

And, of course, me. I'm 72, and still working. ...I'm fit and active - everything the government has been saying us oldies should be. Now I'm going to be told that I have to stay indoors and gently deteriorate.
Many presume that being a fit, active 72 year-old makes them lower risk than a sedentary 72 year-old.  I'm not aware of any data to support that presumption.

My impression is that most of the risk factors for bad outcome derive from higher levels of ACE2 expression in tissues.  ACE2 is the portal of entry for the virus.

I'm not aware that being fit lowers ACE2 receptor expression.  Perhaps it does.  I wouldn't gamble on that.

If society would suffer from all the over 70s sequestering themselves for some months, imagine if many of them would disappear from their jobs and communities forever. 

I think the suggestion is prudent.  Avoiding contact with others doesn't mean losing fitness, though it would, admittedly, make that more common.
I'm very happy with the Social Distance approach. I'm definitely not happy with the implications that it isn't a suggestion - that it will amount to house arrest. Scotland have already said that they won't go for such a draconian idea, and I think there'll be enough push-back to stop it happening.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1784
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2705 on: March 15, 2020, 02:42:38 PM »
Sam,...
"The choice to use Chloroquine and other drugs/herbs may also play a central role. I sincerely hope they do."

This is your only POSSIBLY valid argument for the difference between Korea and Europe, but it is also not valid when looking at Hubei and exHubei....

I think the data Hubei and exHubei confirm the argument.  China wasn't using antivirals at first, or used them haphazardly.  As China gained experience, the treatment recommendations shifted, settling on three antiviral options.  CFR fell dramatically.  SKorea and Japan used antivirals early in their experience of the pandemic, and have shown very low CFR.  The whole world could adopt the SKorean recommendations, at quite modest expense.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2706 on: March 15, 2020, 02:44:37 PM »
<snip, unnecessary; N.>
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 07:38:57 PM by Neven »

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 691
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 101
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2707 on: March 15, 2020, 02:54:47 PM »
  I find your claims of omnipotence recording this virus to be rather egotistical.  Why do you think are right and those who disagree are wrong?

Number 1. I don’t claim omnipotence. I follow the data where it leads. I show my math, and I explain my reasoning. I am very open to information that conflicts with anything I write. You can believe what you like. It won’t hurt my feelings. My skin is far thicker than that.

As to why I think I am right? Well, because I can read, and I can do simple math. There are nearly 6,000 people dead already. We have a rapidly exploding pandemic shutting down the whole freaking world’s economy. And we are on course now to kill over 100 million people.

Beyond that, I have spent a lifetime in emergency management and response. I have lived with exponential growth problems my whole career and I know just how fast they get out of control. I have run nuclear reactors in crisis conditions. I have been bathed in corrosive chemicals and breathed toxic gases. I have literally had my skin turned to soap in a gas spray release. I have been in 175F environments, and high rad fields. I have been inside a biosafety level 2 facility. And I have personally worn nearly every kind of protective gear you can imagine, save BSL4, and loose plutonium surface contamination bubble suits and gear. i was invited to tour through the destroyed unit 4 reactor core at Chernobyl and I was invited to tour Fukushima. I declined both.

I have done engineering forensic analyses of many types. And I have worked with, and yes argued with, some of the finest scientists on earth in dozens of fields.

The problem here is straight forward. Choosing to cherry pick low data assures disaster. Choosing disaster is blitheringly stupid. This is not a linear problem. This isn’t even a problem of low-risk, high-consequence. This is a much more straight forward problem. It is a highly lethal pandemic spreading like chicken pox with a lethality that is high, perhaps half that of the Spanish flu. And if we screw up even a little and overwhelm our hospitals, it may equal the lethality of Spanish flu.

Treating it with any less respect than that deserves is the pinnacle of arrogance and stupidity. And no, I do not care one whit if that hurts your feelings. That is not ever a goal. But if one consequence is that I bruise your ego, so be it. The data speaks for itself. Peoples lives are at immediate risk. And I ignore fools in a crisis, unless they need to be dealt with because they are making the problem worse. You are making the problem worse. Stop doing that. Peoples lives are at stake.

Sam

Besides listed your many accomplishments (more egotism), you have not really answered my question, and continue to insult those who disagree with you. 

All viruses increase exponentially initially.  That does not mean that it will continue indefinitely and infect (and kill) the numbers you believe.  Look at China.   Deaths peaked three weeks after the first reported occurrence at 143.  Yesterday, there were 10!  That brings the total to 3199.  There are a similar number of critical cases remaining in the country.  Do the math.  The death toll could reach 6000 (worst case).  In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, that is 0.004%  of the population.  That in the country where the outbreak started, and the where completely unprepared.  Extent that to the whole world and that totals 30,000.  Simple math.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/



oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1954
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2708 on: March 15, 2020, 03:15:15 PM »
Blumenkraft, your attack on greylib is uncalled for and unjustified. I suggest to delete it.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2315
  • Likes Given: 1954
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2709 on: March 15, 2020, 03:20:39 PM »
What concerns me about the Diamond Princess statistics is that some of the patients from that group are still hospitalized or otherwise are not out of danger.
However I do think these stats show (for now) that the CFR is not low-bound by 4% under certain circumstances. With 4% we should have seen 20-30 dead, and AFAIK we've seen just 8. This is a big discrepancy.
OTOH, most places will not have early disagnosis of all patients, and the best healthcare resources available to all. So in all honesty I expect the deaths to pile up.

greylib

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 108
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 118
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2710 on: March 15, 2020, 03:22:55 PM »
Blumenkraft, your attack on greylib is uncalled for and unjustified. I suggest to delete it.
I, of course, agree. My post was already long, so I didn't mention that far from stealing a job from anybody, I encourage youngsters to send CVs and help interview them. So far, in seven years of trying, we've found nobody willing to do a highly-skilled computer design job for 20 hours a week, for minimum wage. Surprised much?
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3216
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 816
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2711 on: March 15, 2020, 03:35:22 PM »
  Simple math.
China instituted the biggest quarantine, probably in history and took an all hands on deck approach. They tested millions of people, disinfected streets, locked down cities and neighborhoods. By doing so, they regained control. Once control was regained all they did was the SOP for epidemiology. Test/track/isolate. So long as they keep on top of test/track/isolate, they can keep business going.

Where is that fact reflected in your "simple math". It isn't.  If you do include China's response in your "simple math" the conclusions that follow are horrifying. So you won't.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2712 on: March 15, 2020, 03:35:55 PM »
Blumenkraft, your attack on greylib is uncalled for and unjustified. I suggest to delete it.

Nope, sorry. I feel it's justified.

Report it to Neven, let him decide.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 591
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 182
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2713 on: March 15, 2020, 03:50:31 PM »

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3203
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 571
  • Likes Given: 387
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2714 on: March 15, 2020, 03:51:20 PM »
Leaving aside the personal attacks, I do find greylib's attitude to be one that is likely to be widespread in the West. I would be surprised if there were very many with this attitude in most of the Far East.

This may mean that this bug will show higher and faster contagion rates in much of the West than in the east Asian countries it first hit, even though we had a bit more time (mostly utterly wasted) to prep for this structurally and psychologically.

Here's a guy in Kentucky who refused to self quarantine even though he tested positive for COVID-19: https://www.wdrb.com/news/deputies-now-monitoring-home-of-nelson-county-coronavirus-patient-who/article_c8646d32-6636-11ea-8827-e3cd47e6039e.html
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 04:40:08 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

edmountain

  • New ice
  • Posts: 68
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2715 on: March 15, 2020, 03:53:28 PM »
...

Many presume that being a fit, active 72 year-old makes them lower risk than a sedentary 72 year-old.  I'm not aware of any data to support that presumption.

My impression is that most of the risk factors for bad outcome derive from higher levels of ACE2 expression in tissues.  ACE2 is the portal of entry for the virus.

I'm not aware that being fit lowers ACE2 receptor expression.  Perhaps it does.  I wouldn't gamble on that.

If society would suffer from all the over 70s sequestering themselves for some months, imagine if many of them would disappear from their jobs and communities forever. 

I think the suggestion is prudent.  Avoiding contact with others doesn't mean losing fitness, though it would, admittedly, make that more common.
Your thoughts raise some fascinating questions because ACE2 expression is upregulated by two very common classes of medications: ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs).

One of the most interesting aspects of covid is the degree to which cardiovascular disease and CV risk factors are bad prognostic factors. Specifically, it seems hypertension, diabetes, and associated CV disease are bigger risk factors than a history of pulmonary disease such as COPD, asthma, or ILD. For example, see the following two papers, one being a case series out of Wuhan the other being a larger series in all of mainland China.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Subsequent to this there was a letter to Lancet Respiratory Medicine on Wednesday speculating that these observations were real and that the mechanism was increased expression of ACE2 mediated by the use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs in these patients. The authors wondered weather clinicians should consider discontinuing ACEs and ARBs in favour of CCBs or other medications in order to reduce the risk associated with covid infection.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext

It's fascinating because ACEs and ARBs haven proven mortality benefits in many patients with cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular disease itself is so common. If the millions of high-risk patients on ACEs or ARBs were to discontinue those medications would the inevitable uptick in CV mortality be counterbalanced by a reduced risk of severe covid infection? Nobody knows the answer right now.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 04:41:17 PM by edmountain »

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2716 on: March 15, 2020, 04:14:04 PM »
What concerns me about the Diamond Princess statistics is that some of the patients from that group are still hospitalized or otherwise are not out of danger.
However I do think these stats show (for now) that the CFR is not low-bound by 4% under certain circumstances. With 4% we should have seen 20-30 dead, and AFAIK we've seen just 8. This is a big discrepancy.
OTOH, most places will not have early disagnosis of all patients, and the best healthcare resources available to all. So in all honesty I expect the deaths to pile up.

As do I. Like I said, Italy's CFR is around 7%.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3203
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 571
  • Likes Given: 387
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2717 on: March 15, 2020, 04:27:31 PM »
Fauci wrt social distancing: "...when you think you are doing too much, you are probably doing enough or not enough..."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/15/coronavirus-fauci-americans-hunker-down-130035?fbclid=IwAR3UI4ZJiiB0dNE3E-RRKkAu8yU4hI0p_kehtcov9sQrWShzGWlyHNXsnU4
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

bluice

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2718 on: March 15, 2020, 04:34:56 PM »

As do I. Like I said, Italy's CFR is around 7%.
And we have not yet seen nationwide recovery to begin in any other seriously hit country besides China.  It may be harder elsewhere.

edmountain

  • New ice
  • Posts: 68
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2719 on: March 15, 2020, 04:39:21 PM »
...

One thing I wish would stop is arguing over numbers and who is more right and wrong.

...
Thank you.

I am someone whose job involves both clinical front-line work and pandemic planning for my hospital. I can assure you that very few of us personally involved in this struggle care all that much right now whether the CFR is 1%, 2%, 4%, or anywhere in between. We all recognize this disease is dangerous enough to wreak havoc. It crosses a threshold; a deluge is coming. By the time we emerge on the other side the actual CFR will be an historical footnote.

That said, I strongly believe that our struggle has the highest chance of success when guided by the best available evidence. The scientific consensus (remember that term?) does not suggest that this disease will be fatal to 4% of the general population; perpetuation of such inflated death rates is likely counterproductive. See, for example, the critical shortages of PPE and hand sanitizer faced by front-line workers (including myself) because of gratuitous hoarding by the general public fed by panic.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3638
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 625
  • Likes Given: 311
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2720 on: March 15, 2020, 04:45:37 PM »
Is this likely to keep coming up with new strains making new pandemics? Will we face Covid-20, covid-21, Covid-22, etc.?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3726
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2721 on: March 15, 2020, 05:04:59 PM »
The unpleasant data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ continues. (see attached)

If I get it, at my age and with my health profile I've got a 90% chance of survival. Howver, I might be somewhat damaged and an additional burden on the over-stretched social care system.

A Japanese Minister a few years back said that Japan's ageing population needs to die quicker. He lost his job but I gather that even on this forum there are those who may be rooting for the 10% chance while I root for the 90% chance.

It would / will be very irritating if the virus does for me - I was determined that I would choose when to die.

ps: A messy way to die - drowning in your own phlegm.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1179
  • Likes Given: 1027
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2722 on: March 15, 2020, 05:06:37 PM »
Dutch numbers

Deaths 20 that is +8
1135 confirmed, that is +176

Streets/station eerily quiet. Looks like the numbers all over Europe frightened a lot of people.

Schools will be closing after all, bars and restaurants and sport clubs probably have to close too.

#Alexander my region was second in dutch Covid cases from the start. One reason Noord-Brabant had so many cases is that they had a late holiday (we spread over 2 or 3 waves for holidays that are not date bound) so they were in Italy at the wrong moment. Utrecht is at least partly on the same schedule.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2724 on: March 15, 2020, 05:10:27 PM »
What I would like to see, is how much this pandemic shortens average global life expectancy. For instance, I recently read that air pollution reduces average life expectancy for the entire global population by three years (see here).

In a worst case scenario where lots of old people die from COVID-19, how much are the lives of all people on the planet shortened on average?

---

Another point: Even though I think that measures currently taken in Europe are justified, it depresses me that there doesn't seem to be a willingness to do the same for other, potentially much larger catastrophes, like AGW, industrial agriculture, air pollution, unhealthy food, etc. COVID-19 is a warning, a lesson, that teaches us how unresilient and unprepared our current globalized, turbocapitalist system is. I fear that no lessons will be learned, no matter how many old people die.

A lot of what we are doing during these quarantines, should be normal practice. Less travelling, less buying, less entertainment, less addiction, less distraction. But that drives people nuts, as they don't know who they are if they have to let go of their conditioning. Which is why it seems that nothing else in the world but COVID-19 exists right now. Everybody is talking about it non-stop.

---

This hardly gets any media attention, or else I'm sure it would've been posted here. From a couple of days ago:

Quote
Mr Di Maio told the BBC the measures imposed in the first area of the outbreak were proving effective.

Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a "red zone" and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

I think that if everyone follows the process that China and Italy have gone through, it could be under control by summer, and then hopefully not come back next winter.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2725 on: March 15, 2020, 05:11:07 PM »
Ouch. If even suicide bombers are concerned about the virus, you know shit is about to hit the fan...

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1784
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2726 on: March 15, 2020, 05:11:50 PM »
...

Many presume that being a fit, active 72 year-old makes them lower risk than a sedentary 72 year-old.  I'm not aware of any data to support that presumption.

My impression is that most of the risk factors for bad outcome derive from higher levels of ACE2 expression in tissues.  ACE2 is the portal of entry for the virus.

I'm not aware that being fit lowers ACE2 receptor expression.  Perhaps it does.  I wouldn't gamble on that.

Your thoughts raise some fascinating questions because ACE2 expression is upregulated by two very common classes of medications: ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs).

One of the most interesting aspects of covid is the degree to which cardiovascular disease and CV risk factors are bad prognostic factors. Specifically, it seems hypertension, diabetes, and associated CV disease are bigger risk factors than a history of pulmonary disease such as COPD, asthma, or ILD. For example, see the following two papers, one being a case series out of Wuhan the other being a larger series in all of mainland China.

Any references on the upregulation of ACE2 by ACE-inhibitors and ARBs?  I'm not doubting you, but I'd looked into this question and didn't find a clear answer.

It's of more than academic interest, as I have HTN and am on an ACE inhibitor.  I'm probably not alone on this forum in this regard.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1179
  • Likes Given: 1027
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2727 on: March 15, 2020, 05:14:49 PM »
it depresses me that there doesn't seem to be a willingness to do the same for other, potentially much larger catastrophes, like AGW, industrial agriculture, air pollution, unhealthy food, etc.

This is a really simple threat. Fall ill then die. And it could happen now.

People have a problem visualizing how big the problems will be for the next generation because it is still rather abstract. And then there are the optimists who are ignoring all the things IPCC is ignoring. And the general public who still don´t get it if they are somewhat older.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 135
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2728 on: March 15, 2020, 05:16:14 PM »
There are a few remarkable things in it. Looks like nobody takes it seriously until it's to late. If you look at that gathering in Malaysia. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/spain-france-tighten-curbs-coronavirus-fight-live-updates-200312054153018.html

philopek

  • Guest

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2730 on: March 15, 2020, 05:46:28 PM »
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg

Quote
Während der Coronavirus-Epidemie 2019/2020 kritisierte er Quarantänemaßnahmen und Verbotsregelungen in einem Meinungsbeitrag als „Panikmache“ und behauptete, Epidemien mit Coronaviren träten jedes Jahr auf und bedürften keiner besonderen Schutzvorkehrungen oder Tests; ein positives Testergebnis habe keine klinische Bedeutung. Die wegen der Pandemie verhängten Maßnahmen der Gesundheitsbehörden und die Empfehlungen der WHO und des Robert-Koch-Instituts bewertete er als interessegetrieben und auf finanziellen Gewinn bestimmter Nutznießer ausgerichtet

Translates to: The guy is a batshit crazy conspiracy theorist!

Philopek, do you intent to also post Alex Jones about his theories on homosexual frogs? Because this is just the same kind of insane bullshit. What are you trying to do here?

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2731 on: March 15, 2020, 05:52:37 PM »
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg

Quote
Während der Coronavirus-Epidemie 2019/2020 kritisierte er Quarantänemaßnahmen und Verbotsregelungen in einem Meinungsbeitrag als „Panikmache“ und behauptete, Epidemien mit Coronaviren träten jedes Jahr auf und bedürften keiner besonderen Schutzvorkehrungen oder Tests; ein positives Testergebnis habe keine klinische Bedeutung. Die wegen der Pandemie verhängten Maßnahmen der Gesundheitsbehörden und die Empfehlungen der WHO und des Robert-Koch-Instituts bewertete er als interessegetrieben und auf finanziellen Gewinn bestimmter Nutznießer ausgerichtet

Translates to: The guy is a batshit crazy conspiracy theorist!

Philopek, do you intent to also post Alex Jones about his theories on homosexual frogs? Because this is just the same kind of insane bullshit. What are you trying to do here?

Shit has got to stop but it won't.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2732 on: March 15, 2020, 05:53:17 PM »
Current US map.

Soon to be outdated.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4102
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2397
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2733 on: March 15, 2020, 06:23:11 PM »
Two ER Doctors Test Positive For COVID-19
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/covid-first-er-doctor-transmission-washington-new-jersey

Two emergency room doctors on opposite sides of the country are in critical condition after contracting the novel coronavirus.

One doctor in his 70s in Paterson, New Jersey, tested positive for the virus after coming down with respiratory symptoms, while another ER doctor in Kirkland, Washington, has symptoms consistent with the virus, the American College of Emergency Physicians said in a statement shared first with TPM.

Both cases are potential candidates for the first cases of so-called occupational transmission of the disease, by which the novel coronavirus spreads from patients to the doctors treating them.

Seattle-area hospitals are reportedly running low on protective equipment that mitigates the potential for transmission.

But according to Liam Yore, a former president of ACEP’s Washington state chapter, that was not a factor in this case.

The New Jersey doctor leads the emergency preparedness unit of his hospital. The Washington doctor works in his hospital’s emergency room, and was admitted Friday morning.

-------------------------

... During his ABC News appearance, Dr Fauci weighed in on reports that the US has only 13,000 respirators, acknowledging that “that may not be enough if we have a situation where we really have a lot of cases.”

“People need to understand that things will get worse before they get better,” he said. “What we’re trying to do is to make sure they don’t get to the worst-case scenario. That’s what we need to do.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

colchonero

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2734 on: March 15, 2020, 06:28:03 PM »
Oh boy Italy 3590 cases and 368 deaths (previous high wss 250). They have no beds in Lombardy :'(.

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 418
  • Likes Given: 148
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2735 on: March 15, 2020, 06:28:44 PM »
Translated
Quote
Wodarg was known in 2009 to oppose swine flu vaccination . [3] [4] During the 2019/2020 coronavirus epidemic , he criticized quarantine measures and prohibition measures in an opinion post as “scaremongering” and claimed that epidemics with coronaviruses occur every year and do not require any special protective measures or tests; a positive test result has no clinical significance. He assessed the measures imposed by the health authorities on the pandemic and the recommendations of the WHO and the Robert Koch Institute as being driven by interests and aimed at the financial gain of certain beneficiaries. [5]
We may get the opportunity to find out what happens if you do not take "quarantine measures and prohibition measures"
Thank ( insert deity of choice or blind luck ) I dont live somewhere like that.
This is an order of magnitude worse than flu that health systems regularly have trouble coping with.


 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 604
  • Likes Given: 463
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2736 on: March 15, 2020, 06:43:44 PM »
total cases outside China now exceed those within . Corona virus crosses itself . Mass control in China , mass murder in the West ; whose political Epitaph would be ' we did it to protect the economy ' .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2737 on: March 15, 2020, 06:46:30 PM »

You are correct. Substitute IFR. Everything else remains exactly the same. Please stop arguing that this disease is anything less than 4% fatal to the general population, and devastating to another 6-11%. Unless of course it is your intent and desire for massive numbers of people to be killed and maimed. In that case I have no use for you, and I certainly cannot help you.

Sam

Considering the shortness of test kits and the testing of only the severe cases, I would say your numbers are too high - possibly by a lot.  After the initial onslaught, the cfr in China has fallen to under 1.  I find your claims of omnipotence recording this virus to be rather egotistical.  Why do you think are right and those who disagree are wrong?

The Diamond Princess controlled experiment demonstrated that, even with a population that skewed older than the general population and thus more vulnerable, the CFR and IFR are around 1% if the patients can get exceptional medical care. This is the lower bound for what we can expect worldwide. In this experiment, the IFR and CFR are the same as all infected persons were identified.

Wuhan, Italy, Iran and soon other nations will provide us with evidence regarding the CFR we can expect when the health care system is overwhelmed and large numbers of desperately ill people are essentially left to their own devices. The problem with these CFR numbers is we will never understand fully the IFR in these countries as their failed heath care system can't possibly identify all that are infected.

Last I checked, the CFR in Italy is around 7%.

SH

Unfortunately it didn’t demonstrate a damned thing. The cases were scattered to the wind.

The focus in belief that this disease is less fatal than it has demonstrated that is, and less transmissibility than it is is simply plain stupidity. The video above posted by NevB explained it quite clearly and correctly.

A handful of you though perhaps meaning well are arguing for things that will get people killed. And you are taking no personal responsibility for that stupidity.

Stupidity kills.

Sam

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2738 on: March 15, 2020, 06:51:59 PM »
What I would like to see, is how much this pandemic shortens average global life expectancy. For instance, I recently read that air pollution reduces average life expectancy for the entire global population by three years (see here).

In a worst case scenario where lots of old people die from COVID-19, how much are the lives of all people on the planet shortened on average?

---

Another point: Even though I think that measures currently taken in Europe are justified, it depresses me that there doesn't seem to be a willingness to do the same for other, potentially much larger catastrophes, like AGW, industrial agriculture, air pollution, unhealthy food, etc. COVID-19 is a warning, a lesson, that teaches us how unresilient and unprepared our current globalized, turbocapitalist system is. I fear that no lessons will be learned, no matter how many old people die.

A lot of what we are doing during these quarantines, should be normal practice. Less travelling, less buying, less entertainment, less addiction, less distraction. But that drives people nuts, as they don't know who they are if they have to let go of their conditioning. Which is why it seems that nothing else in the world but COVID-19 exists right now. Everybody is talking about it non-stop.

---

This hardly gets any media attention, or else I'm sure it would've been posted here. From a couple of days ago:

Quote
Mr Di Maio told the BBC the measures imposed in the first area of the outbreak were proving effective.

Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a "red zone" and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

I think that if everyone follows the process that China and Italy have gone through, it could be under control by summer, and then hopefully not come back next winter.

Amen Neven.

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2739 on: March 15, 2020, 07:02:32 PM »
Edmountain,

The difference in 1-4% fatal isn’t with medical folks. They get it. They focus on what is right before them and what is important.

The importance is with the political leaders. When they fall into the threshold belief that this is just another flu, that is when they fail to act and fail to act quickly enough or massively enough. That is when a simple disease outbreak becomes an epidemic and when an epidemic becomes a pandemic.

In the end, the CFR will be a footnote. Unfortunately it will be a footnote to a paragraph that explains how leaders were so stupid as to allow a pandemic to ravage the world killing untold millions, and about how unnecessary those deaths were, and where it was that they got this idea from.

That is why and where the CFR argument has any importance at all. That - and the lives destroyed by all of those individual unnecessary deaths.

Sam

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 823
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2740 on: March 15, 2020, 07:05:17 PM »
Dr Michael Ryan, WHO Executive Director:
“The greatest error is to be paralysed by the fear of failure” - 
You need to react quickly.  You need to go after the virus - you need to stop the chains of transmission.  You need to be coordinated and coherent.
Be fast - have no regrets.  You must be the first mover or the virus will get you.  The greatest error is not to move...  If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.  Perfection is the enemy of the good.

Accessible version with subtitles
https://twitter.com/caffeinatedkrys/status/1239024760769527808
~1-minute video at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2741 on: March 15, 2020, 07:08:26 PM »
Agreed, Sam! But it's not only about politics. We also have to take malicious individuals into account.

When i got angry with a certain boomer earlier today, it was because he displayed a selfish attitude getting himself and others killed without even realizing.

Some people are just not able to live in a society...

Remember that guy in Italy ignoring the quarantine and then infected hundreds? Well, he faces murder charges now. I hope he rots in prison.

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2742 on: March 15, 2020, 07:11:50 PM »
Also - back to Neven’s points.

AGW is in the end vastly vastly vastly more important, bigger, and more critical than this damned stupid virus. Failing to respond massively to stop or now - slow - AGW will ultimately far far outweigh anything this virus does.

With AGW the maths are similar. The scope is greater. And the timeframes are vastly slower with much longer lag times. The human failings and stupidities are identical.

These are similar types of problems. And the very human failings that are causing us globally to fail with COVID are the self same failings that are destroying everything with AGW.

And that is I believe where the lesson with this virus most strongly strikes home.

If we cannot individually and collectively deal with this virus, how can we ever even begin to hope to solve AGW.

Sam

edmountain

  • New ice
  • Posts: 68
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2743 on: March 15, 2020, 07:13:54 PM »
...

Any references on the upregulation of ACE2 by ACE-inhibitors and ARBs?  I'm not doubting you, but I'd looked into this question and didn't find a clear answer.

It's of more than academic interest, as I have HTN and am on an ACE inhibitor.  I'm probably not alone on this forum in this regard.
Most of the evidence is based on extrapolation from animal models:

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/01.HYP.0000237862.94083.45
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/01.HYP.0000124667.34652.1a
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1440-1681.2009.05302.x
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/circulationaha.104.510461


For humans the evidence is less clear and somewhat contradictory:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0196978110001257
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00726-014-1889-6
https://academic.oup.com/europace/article/19/8/1280/2194467
https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/39/suppl_1/ehy566.P6430/5082261


It's probably not as cut-and-dry as the Lancet Respiratory letter suggested and that's a valid criticism of their position--and a weakness that I further perpetuated by reposting it verbatim here! This is an active area of inquiry that's moving at a pace not general seen in the internal medicine community. Matthew Sparks from Duke and Swapnil Hiremath out of Ottawa are doing their best to stay on top of things over at the nephrology journal club.

Take home message is: don't listen to some hack on the internet. Instead, speak to your doctor.

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1253
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 542
  • Likes Given: 102
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2744 on: March 15, 2020, 07:29:41 PM »
While I am dissatisfied with Europe's halfhearted reactions, they still amount to a lot, so I think that case numbers will start flattening in 1-2 weeks here. The next hotspot is the US  where case numbers will simply explode as they are doing  almost less than nothing

(and Iran, but that is already out of control)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4102
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2397
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2745 on: March 15, 2020, 07:34:02 PM »
The authorities of Italy’s Lombardy region, worst hit by the coronavirus, have accused the Civil Protection of having provided hospitals with “cheap masks that look like dust-cloths”.

On Friday, the Civil Protection provided 250,000 masks for doctors and nurses of Lombardy who refused to wear them citing they were “useless”. The regional authorities compaed them to dust-cloths.

Italy is running out of masks after the outbreak of the coronavirus. In the country’s pharmacies, the Fp2 and Fp3 masks are practically impossible to find.
“Unfortunately, we don’t have a national production of masks,” the head of civil protection, Angelo Borrelli, told the Sole24Ore newspaper.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy

-------------------------

Italy will receive another 140 medicinal ventilators and 5 million face masks from China, said Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio said on Sunday. The latest shipment comes after China delivered some 30 tons of medical equipment, including masks and respirators, on Thursday.

------------------------------

The EU has announced controls on exporting masks and other protective medical equipment.

Such goods can now "only be exported to non-EU countries with the explicit authorization of the EU governments," said the head of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

-----------------------------

Italy coronavirus deaths rise by 25%
The total number of confirmed cases in Italy has risen to 24,747 from 21,157 on Saturday, as the death toll increased by 25% to 1,809 from 1,441 on Sunday – a rise of 368.

-------------------------

Germany now has 4,838 confirmed coronavirus cases, a jump of over 1,000 compared to Saturday. The virus has so far killed 12 people.

The coronavirus outbreak is advancing "quickly and aggressively" and has not yet reached its peak, according to German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer.

https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-germany-to-close-borders-to-several-countries/a-52777896

------------------------

Scandinavian airline SAS will temporarily lay off some 10,000 employees, or 90% of its workforce, as the demand for plane tickets sinks due to the coronavirus.

---------------------------------

Irish government asks all pubs to close until March 29

All pubs and bars in the Republic of Ireland have been ordered to close from Sunday evening to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak.

-------------------------

The Iraqi government has imposed a curfew in the capital Baghdad as of March 17 until March 24 to prevent coronavirus from spreading, the state news agency said on Sunday.

At least 110 cases have been confirmed so far in Iraq, and 10 people have died.

------------------------

UK over-70s to be asked to stay home 'within weeks', Hancock says
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-uk-over-70s-to-be-asked-to-self-isolate-within-weeks-hancock-says

People over 70 will soon be asked to stay at home for up to four months to protect themselves from the risk of contracting coronavirus, the UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, has said.

Ministers are also not ruling out ordering the closure of all bars, restaurants and non-essential shops as the coronavirus pandemic escalates.

Hancock confirmed the government will soon tell people over 70 that they will need to self-isolate at home for up to four months to protect themselves from the disease – but his terminology caused some confusion, leading Scottish officials to stress that elderly people would not be asked to avoid all contact with other people.

--------------------------

US tries to lure German firm working on virus vaccine: Report
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/lure-german-firm-working-virus-vaccine-report-200315165703635.html

Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.

German government sources told Reuters news agency on Sunday that the US administration was looking into how it could gain access to a potential vaccine being developed by a German firm, CureVac.

... In the field of so-called mRNA therapeutics, CureVac competes with US biotech firm Moderna and German rival BioNTech, which Pfizer has identified as a potential collaboration partner.

Companies working on other coronavirus-vaccine approaches include Johnson & Johnson and INOVIO Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 07:46:20 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2746 on: March 15, 2020, 07:41:07 PM »


Any references on the upregulation of ACE2 by ACE-inhibitors and ARBs?  I'm not doubting you, but I'd looked into this question and didn't find a clear answer.

It's of more than academic interest, as I have HTN and am on an ACE inhibitor.  I'm probably not alone on this forum in this regard.

The Lancet letter was enough for me. I’m on an ARB and given the relative risks of mild hypertension and Covid 19 I’ve just emailed my GP requesting a change to a CCB.

I think I’ll switch from ibuprofen to paracetamol as analgesic of choice for the same reason.

No point in having upregulated ACE2 if you can avoid it.

And just think, this is a forum about Arctic Ice......
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 08:00:29 PM by silkman »

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2747 on: March 15, 2020, 08:04:39 PM »

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 691
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 101
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2748 on: March 15, 2020, 08:16:46 PM »
  Simple math.
China instituted the biggest quarantine, probably in history and took an all hands on deck approach. They tested millions of people, disinfected streets, locked down cities and neighborhoods. By doing so, they regained control. Once control was regained all they did was the SOP for epidemiology. Test/track/isolate. So long as they keep on top of test/track/isolate, they can keep business going.

Where is that fact reflected in your "simple math". It isn't.  If you do include China's response in your "simple math" the conclusions that follow are horrifying. So you won't.

OK.  Let us look outside China.  South Korea was next on the infection list, with the first documented case occurring on Jan. 20, and the first reported death a month later.  The virus started its exponential rise on Feb 18., when the number of new cases doubled to 61.  The peak occurred between Feb. 29 and Mar 3, at over 800 new cases.  The daily deaths reached a high of seven on Mar. 2, and were matched on Mar. 5 and Mar. 10.  South Korea did not enact the same draconian measures as China, but were closer to those enacted by the U.S. 

Using South Korea as the baseline, I would expect the number of new cases in the U.S. to peak within a week, and start to fall slowly.  The actual number may be greater, due to the higher population in the U.S. (although the population density is lower).  The death rate would subsequently peak about a week later.  Is that math simpler for you?

I cannot speak for Europe, but from what I have heard, I would expect the situation to be much worse. 

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2749 on: March 15, 2020, 08:31:43 PM »
I would expect the number of new cases in the U.S. to peak within a week

That's wishful thinking, Walrus.