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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 284831 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2800 on: March 16, 2020, 01:24:41 PM »
Tough times.  Tough choices.  State of Ohio, Sunday:

Quote
Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) 3/15/20, 3:42 PM
We will be issuing an order closing all bars and restaurants in #Ohio beginning at 9:00 tonight.

Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) 3/15/20, 3:44 PM
Establishments can stay open for carry-out and delivery. What we can't have is people congregating and seated.
#COVID19
#COVID19OhioReady
https://twitter.com/govmikedewine/status/1239276197718171648
[Infographic at link.]

- I'm aware that this will impact many, many good workers. I can't tell you how sorry I am, but we will work to mitigate the suffering. It is our goal for everyone to get through this.
- Every day we delay, more people will die.
If we do not act and get some distance between people, our healthcare system in #Ohio will not hold up. The loss won't only be those impacted by #COVID19, but the danger is also to everyone else who needs hospital care for other issues.


“Every single restaurant in Ohio is ordered to shut down. This is hard hitting reality. For both my boss, who owns a small restaurant and be crippled by this as the end date is not announced. This virus will bankrupt more people than it kills. The effects will be worse than 2008.”
https://twitter.com/teslatested/status/1239276466807996421
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2801 on: March 16, 2020, 02:57:49 PM »
Concern mounts of 'catastrophic' coronavirus outbreak in Syria
https://aje.io/yvdew

As the coronavirus takes a firmer hold across the Middle East, there is growing concern that Syria might face a major outbreak - a "catastrophic" prospect in a country ravaged by nine years of war.

---------------------------

France Says Coronavirus Situation 'Deteriorating Very Fast'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

The coronavirus outbreak in France is "very worrying" and "deteriorating very fast", the head of the country's health service said.

"The number of cases double every three days," Jerome Salomon said on France Inter. "There is a real worry that the speed of the outbreak could saturate hospitals and this is something we absolutely want to avoid," Salomon said.

"This is why we must do everything to slow down the outbreak," he said. "Each Frenchman and Frenchwoman must tell themselves every morning: How can I reduce by a third or fourth the number of people I approach? Remain at home, it's as simple as that."

---------------------------

A UK NHS document leaked to the media suggested that the coronavirus emergency could last up to a year in the UK and put 8m people in hospital. This morning, Downing St said the 8m figure was a worst case scenario, rather than what the government expected.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

--------------------------

Spain's Civil Guards seize 150,000 surgical masks for health services
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Spain's police have requisitioned 150,000 surgical masks from a factory in the southern city of Jaen to supply health services,  the Civil Guards police force said in a statement.

The Spanish government has requisitioned its private healthcare sector and given any company that has supplies of protective gear 48 hours to report to health authorities, or face fines.

------------------------------

Greece imposes 14-day quarantine on new arrivals, shuts shops
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Greece said people arriving in the country from abroad will be placed in a two-week quarantine, while shops will be shut effective on Wednesday.

Supermarkets, pharmacy stores and food delivery services were exempted from the latest measures, the country's alternate government spokesman said.

---------------------------

Spain's coronavirus tally rises to 8,744 cases
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Spain's tally of coronavirus cases rose to 8,744 and the number of fatalities rose to 297, said Fernando Simon, the head of the country's health emergency centre.

The previous tally was 7,753 cases on Sunday, with 288 fatalities.

---------------------------

Iran announces 129 new virus deaths
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Iran state TV says new coronavirus has killed another 129 people, pushing death toll to 853 amid 14,991 confirmed cases.

"Our plea is that everyone take this virus seriously and in no way attempt to travel to any province," health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said in a televised news conference.

----------------------------

Member of Iranian clerical assembly dies from virus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

A 78-year-old member of the Iranian clerical body that chooses the country's supreme leader has died COVID-19, the semi-official Fars and Tasnim news agencies reported.

Ayatollah Hashem Bathaei, a low-profile, moderate member of the Assembly of Experts, was the latest of several senior Iranian officials to have been infected in the worsening outbreak.

The clerical assembly has the authority to appoint or remove the supreme leader, who has the final say on all major policies.

----------------------------

Fiat Chrysler suspending production at most European plants
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Italian-American auto giant Fiat Chrysler said it was suspending production at most of its European plants until March 27 because of the coronavirus pandemic.

-----------------------------

Half a billion students miss school: UN
https://aje.io/43yzn

More than half a billion children and youth are unable to go to school because of the coronavirus, the UN education agency said, as the outbreak continues to spread to new countries.

---------------------------

NYC, four US states shut bars, restaurants
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Illinois, Ohio, Massachusetts, Washington state and New York City are among the places that ordered bars to close and restaurants to stop dine-in service. Takeout and delivery will still be allowed

... "The time for persuasion and public appeals is over," Illinois Governor JB Pritzker said. "This is not a joke. No one is immune to this."

---------------------------

US Peace Corps suspends global operations
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

US humanitarian group the Peace Corps said it will temporarily suspend all global operations and evacuate its volunteers.

"As COVID-19 continues to spread and international travel becomes more and more challenging by the day, we are acting now to ... prevent a situation where volunteers are unable to leave their host countries," Peace Corps Director Jody Olsen said in a letter to volunteers posted on its website.

-----------------------------

OAG, an airline industry research house, said that nearly 2 million seats were affected when US President Donald Trump announced a ban on flights from Europe.

"Many trans-Atlantic services are operated in joint venture agreements between partners," John Grant, senior aviation analyst at OAG, told DW. He said he hoped "the pain, in some way, would be shared" between the two continents.

https://m.dw.com/en/fragile-airline-sector-struggles-to-beat-coronavirus/a-52790383

----------------------------
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 03:04:13 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2802 on: March 16, 2020, 03:01:13 PM »
One thing I really wonder is what's going on with international flights, and why there are still so many of them between countries supposed to apply drastic confinement measures.

Have a look at Flightradar24, giving real-time flight positions, company, provenance and destination.

Random airport of a country at the heart of outbreak : Barcelona
https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/bcn

Clicked on random planes taking on and off. Barcelona-Stockholm, Oslo-Barcelona, Barcelona-London, Barcelona-Cologne etc.

Look around Milano, whatever, you'll see the same situation. Look over Atlantic ocean, same.

Of course there are far less flights than BAU, but still ... those are commercial flights, I suppose the planes are not empty, at least there is a crew and a handful of passengers.

Thoughts about that?

[edited] They also provide stats : https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
Yesterday, more than 150,000 flights have been tracked, a 25% drop from one month ago. But even with half-empty planes, this is still huge. It means hundredths of thousands of people at least, more probably a few millions, moving around on a daily basis.

Ghost planes, empty planes that need to fly in order not to lose valuable landing slots.

Yes, that is insanity.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2803 on: March 16, 2020, 03:11:50 PM »
SLC Police Dept., @slcpd on Twitter:

Quote
Due to the confirmed case of #COVIDー19 from community spread, SLCPD is asking all criminal activities/nefarious behavior to cease until further notice. We appreciate your anticipated cooperation in halting crime & thank criminals in advance. #SocialDistancingNow #behaveyourself

Link >> https://twitter.com/slcpd/status/1238848450340352000

OK...
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2804 on: March 16, 2020, 03:13:16 PM »
Amazing photo series:

Large-Scale Disinfection Efforts Against Coronavirus

Link >> https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/03/photos-large-scale-disinfection-efforts-against-coronavirus/607810/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2805 on: March 16, 2020, 03:14:24 PM »
Quote
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function"

Al Barlett

“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2806 on: March 16, 2020, 03:31:35 PM »
Meanwhile, some Americans hoarding ... guns!

Link >> https://twitter.com/cjjohnsonjr/status/1238868541689880576
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2807 on: March 16, 2020, 03:41:43 PM »
One thing I really wonder is what's going on with international flights, and why there are still so many of them between countries supposed to apply drastic confinement measures.

Have a look at Flightradar24, giving real-time flight positions, company, provenance and destination.

Random airport of a country at the heart of outbreak : Barcelona
https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/bcn

Clicked on random planes taking on and off. Barcelona-Stockholm, Oslo-Barcelona, Barcelona-London, Barcelona-Cologne etc.

Look around Milano, whatever, you'll see the same situation. Look over Atlantic ocean, same.

Of course there are far less flights than BAU, but still ... those are commercial flights, I suppose the planes are not empty, at least there is a crew and a handful of passengers.

Thoughts about that?

[edited] They also provide stats : https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
Yesterday, more than 150,000 flights have been tracked, a 25% drop from one month ago. But even with half-empty planes, this is still huge. It means hundredths of thousands of people at least, more probably a few millions, moving around on a daily basis.

Ghost planes, empty planes that need to fly in order not to lose valuable landing slots.

Yes, that is insanity.
I guess that explains all the contrails I saw today.
So no aerosol reduction?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2808 on: March 16, 2020, 04:03:27 PM »
Depending on the projection tool used, it appears to me that 'official' Covid-19 deaths will reach 10,000 somewhere between March 18 and 21.  This will show the ten most optimistic fellow posters who voted in this poll were, alas, overly optimistic.  (I drew from data posted in World-o-meters.  I suspect March 18 or 19.)

This is what has happened in 3 - 3½ (maybe 4) months.  What will the next 4 - 6 weeks reveal? (1 million?)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2809 on: March 16, 2020, 04:07:13 PM »
Sanofi, Regeneron to Begin Initial Treatment Trials (8:15 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. will soon begin evaluating an experimental treatment in patients hospitalized with severe Covid-19. The companies initiated a later-stage clinical trial for a drug called Kevzara, a full-human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the so-called interleukin-6 pathway. Regeneron, which will be leading U.S.-based trials, will begin enrolling as many as 400 patients across 16 sites immediately. Sanofi will lead trials outside the U.S. in the coming weeks.

-------------------------------

U.S. May Need 6-8 Weeks to Get Over the Worst (7:30 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams says the nation may need six to eight weeks to get over the majority of coronavirus-related pain, if the situation develops as it did in China and South Korea.

Adams, speaking on Fox News, acknowledged there is a chance the U.S. does worse than South Korea, and that the situation could get as bad as in Italy.

-------------------------------

U.S. Health Agency Suffers Cyber-Attack (8:59 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

The U.S. Health and Human Services Department suffered a cyber-attack on its computer system Sunday night during the nation’s response to the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The attack appears to have been intended to slow the agency’s systems down, but didn’t do so in any meaningful way, said the people, who asked for anonymity to discuss an incident that was not public.

-----------------------

White House NSC Says Rumors of U.S. Quarantine Fake (12:35 p.m. HK)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

The White House National Security Council, in a Twitter post on a verified account, said text-message rumors of a national quarantine “are fake,” adding there’s “no national lockdown.”

-----------------------

Reckitt (British Pharmaceutical) Not Aware of Evidence Ibuprofen Impacts Patients (6:20 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

Appropriate use of ibuprofen and paracetamol is still currently being recommended by most European health authorities as part of the symptomatic treatment of COVID-19, Reckitt said. The company said it’s “not aware of any evidence that ibuprofen adversely impacts the outcome in patients suffering from COVID-19 infection.

-----------------------

Virus to Bankrupt Most Airlines by End of May: Consultant (2:24 p.m. HK)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

The coronavirus pandemic will bankrupt most airlines worldwide by the end of May unless governments and the industry take coordinated steps to avoid such a situation, an aviation consultant warned.

Many airlines have probably been driven into technical bankruptcy or substantially breached debt covenants already, Sydney-based consultancy CAPA Centre for Aviation warned in a statement. Carriers are depleting cash reserves quickly because their planes are grounded and those that aren’t are flying more than half empty, it said.

----------------------

VIX Futures Flash Market Fear (5:10 p.m. HK)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

A measure of fear in U.S. stocks surged to the highest since 2009, surpassing last week’s peak as an emergency move by the Federal Reserve to ease policy did little to calm markets on edge over the spreading coronavirus.

The generic front-month futures contract for the CBOE Volatility Index jumped as high as 57.9 on Monday. The gauge measures traders’ expectations for where the VIX will trade a month from now.

(... don't expect a dead-cat bounce anytime soon.)

----------------------

SEC Rejects Speculation Markets Should Be Shuttered (8:12 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

“Markets should continue to function through times like this,” U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton told CNBC. “We’ve been in contact with the various institutions” across Wall Street, he said. Clayton was responding to speculation that stock exchanges might suspend trading as the coronavirus continues to fuel wild market swings.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2810 on: March 16, 2020, 04:13:52 PM »
Second order effects of closing bars & restaurants...

-------------------------------

Connecticut Receives First Mass Layoff Notice After Coronavirus Declaration
https://www.nhregister.com/business/article/Connecticut-receives-first-mass-layoff-notice-15133973.php

An East Hartford beverage and liquor distributor became the first Connecticut business to signal a mass layoff this month under the state’s statute requiring notification, electing to close at a cost of nearly 100 jobs.

Allen S. Goodman Inc. had already disclosed plans to lay off two dozen employees who worked in its Rogo Distributors soft-drink distribution arm in East Hartford.

On March 10, the same day Gov. Ned Lamont issued an emergency declaration for the state of Connecticut, Allen S. Goodman expanded its initial notice to signal a full closure of the Rogo Distributors facility including its beer and alcohol distribution.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2811 on: March 16, 2020, 04:27:52 PM »
Quote
This will show the ten most optimistic fellow posters who voted in this poll were, alas, overly optimistic.

I didn't think Trump and Boris were sabotaging the medical response. It never occurred to me. This was completely containable. It still is, if testing gets going with a vengeance.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2812 on: March 16, 2020, 04:35:45 PM »
Coronavirus: US Volunteers To Test First Vaccine
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-51906604

The first trial in people of the mRNA-1273 vaccine to protect against pandemic coronavirus is starting in the US later on Monday, according to reports .

A group of 45 healthy volunteers will have the jab, at the Kaiser Permanente research facility, in Seattle.

... Scientists around the world are fast-tracking research.

And this first human trial, funded by the National Institutes of Health, sidesteps a check that would normally be conducted - making sure the vaccine can trigger an immune response in animals.

But the biotechnology company behind the work, Moderna Therapeutics, says the vaccine has been made using a tried and tested process.

... The volunteers will be given different doses of the experimental vaccine.

They will each be given two jabs in total, 28 days apart, into the upper arm muscle.

But even if these initial safety tests go well, it could still take up to 18 months for any potential vaccine to become available for the public.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2813 on: March 16, 2020, 04:51:24 PM »
Kids Get Mild COVID-19 Symptoms, But Chance of Transmission High: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-kids-mild-covid-symptoms-chance.html

A study, published March 13 in Nature Medicine, found that even though children typically only exhibit mild symptoms if infected, they can shed the coronavirus long after symptoms disappear.

The new study finds "it may make sense to close schools, since it's unclear if children might be able to pass it to others in the community," said Dr. Robert Glatter. He is an emergency medicine physician at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City.

The good news: just 10 children (1.3%) ended up testing positive for the new coronavirus with mild symptoms, Xia's team reported.

But there was also a downside to these milder symptoms: Many children might be asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic vectors of transmission for the coronavirus as they come into contact with more vulnerable adults.

And that risk of transmission may occur over a longer time than was suspected, the Chinese team noted.

That's because even after swabs of the previously infected children's noses and throats came up negative for coronavirus, tests of their stool continue to show signs of the virus. In one case, a child had a stool test that still tested positive for coronavirus 13 days after they had been discharged from hospital following two negative throat/nose swab tests.

Open Access: Yi Xu et al. Characteristics of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection and potential evidence for persistent fecal viral shedding, Nature Medicine (2020)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2814 on: March 16, 2020, 05:01:41 PM »
Illinois has ordered all dental offices to shut down except for emergencies.

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2815 on: March 16, 2020, 05:06:21 PM »

...

U.S. May Need 6-8 Weeks to Get Over the Worst (7:30 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/health-agency-hit-by-cyber-attack-airline-warning-virus-update/ar-BB11e57K

U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams says the nation may need six to eight weeks to get over the majority of coronavirus-related pain, if the situation develops as it did in China and South Korea.

Adams, speaking on Fox News, acknowledged there is a chance the U.S. does worse than South Korea, and that the situation could get as bad as in Italy.

...
Given that testing in the US has been so badly botched they will be extremely lucky to get an outcome anywhere near that of China or South Korea. Based on deaths, which are presumably easier to track than cases, it seems likely that the current number of cases in the US is at least the same as South Korea, i.e. around 8,000. Frankly, even that may be an underestimate: it's possible people have died in the US without having been tested so the actual number of deaths could be even higher.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2816 on: March 16, 2020, 05:30:58 PM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.
Those millions do not require hospital care at the same time if all goes well.

And this is the number that would need hospitalization. When the beds are not there, that means that the CFR goes up a few percentage units.

241,000 hospital beds in the UK.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2817 on: March 16, 2020, 05:48:40 PM »
Local officials alarmed by dearth of ventilators, hospital beds

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/14/health-system-coronavirus-preparation-129066

"Ventilators, which provide mechanical breathing assistance and can make the difference between life and death for those patients who need them, represent the clearest limitation on the health system’s capacity to handle the outbreak. U.S. hospitals have a total of 160,000 ventilators — 62,000 full-featured ventilators, and 98,000 more basic ones that can be used in an emergency, according to a 2020 study by Johns Hopkins University.

And it’s not just the machines. The respiratory therapists who treat these critically ill patients are also in short supply, several doctors and hospital leaders point out."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2818 on: March 16, 2020, 05:59:46 PM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.
Those millions do not require hospital care at the same time if all goes well.

And this is the number that would need hospitalization. When the beds are not there, that means that the CFR goes up a few percentage units.

241,000 hospital beds in the UK.

Do you have a source for that number SH

Last time I checked .

The UK has 127,000 total including mental health and rehab.(... not counting hotels)

The number of beds in general and acute hospitals in the UK has fallen from 110,568 in April-June 2010 to 100,406 in the same period this year (2019). Current occupancy is already 85-95% - without a pandemic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

--------------------

Also, according to Dr Fauci the US has 12,700 spare ventilators.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2819 on: March 16, 2020, 06:11:25 PM »
Friendly reminder.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2820 on: March 16, 2020, 06:23:16 PM »
Because they are in different parties this will not happen (in a timely manner) ...

--------------------------------

New York’s Hospitals Will Be Overwhelmed By Coronavirus Patients Without Help From U.S. Military: Gov. Cuomo
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/16/ny-gov-cuomo-warns-us-wont-have-enough-hospital-beds-for-coronavirus-pandemic.html

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-cuomo-trump-us-army-corps-of-engineers-20200315-i6mtmnwylzeu5o5ky43zmpuke4-story.html?outputType=amp

New York’s hospitals will soon be overwhelmed by an oncoming wave of coronavirus patients if the federal government does not step in, Gov. Cuomo warned on Sunday.

Cuomo penned a letter to President Trump, calling on him to take an unprecedented step and mobilize the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to retrofit public buildings like SUNY dormitories into medical facilities. The work would have to be completed in a matter of weeks in order to avoid a full-blown catastrophe, the governor said.

“The wave could break the hospital system,” Cuomo said of the number of potential cases. “In my opinion, which is not science-based, you will not be able to flatten the curve to avoid the wave. You will be short thousands of ICU beds, thousands of ventilators.”

There are roughly 3,000 intensive care unit beds at hospitals in the state, and some 80% are currently filled, according to state officials. If several hundred New Yorkers require hospitalization from severe COVID-19 cases at the same time, the state’s health care system would not have the capacity to treat them.

Some 65 ICU beds were occupied by coronavirus patients as of Sunday afternoon, Cuomo said. The state has recorded 729 cases of the disease as of Sunday — nearly a fourth of the more than 3,000 cases recorded nationwide.

“You have no other option (than bringing in the military)," said Cuomo. “Otherwise we will be sitting here nine weeks, 10 weeks, 14 weeks from today seeing a health care system overrun. We will be saying we knew this was going to happen, and why didn’t we provide more health care facilities?”

The governor said the state does not have the “physical capacity” to build new medical facilities — and that the Army Corps of Engineers is the only government entity that could save New York from a full-blown medical catastrophe.

It’s unclear whether Trump will answer Cuomo’s call. White House spokesman Judd Deere said the president will hold a “briefing video-teleconference” will all 50 of the country’s governors on Monday and “welcomes input and ideas on how to prepare, respond and mitigate Covid-19.”

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/16/ny-gov-cuomo-warns-us-wont-have-enough-hospital-beds-for-coronavirus-pandemic.html

« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 07:11:06 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2821 on: March 16, 2020, 06:26:41 PM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.
Those millions do not require hospital care at the same time if all goes well.

And this is the number that would need hospitalization. When the beds are not there, that means that the CFR goes up a few percentage units.

241,000 hospital beds in the UK.

Do you have a source for that number SH

Last time I checked .

The UK has 127,000 total including mental health and rehab.(... not counting hotels)

The number of beds in general and acute hospitals in the UK has fallen from 110,568 in April-June 2010 to 100,406 in the same period this year (2019). Current occupancy is already 85-95% - without a pandemic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

--------------------

Also, according to Dr Fauci the US has 12,700 spare ventilators.

IMHO, if Italy have been struggling so much with 3.18 hospital beds per 1000 people, any developed country with fewer hospital beds than that per capita is really going to struggle. 
Both the USA, with 2.77 hospital beds per 1000, and the UK, with 2.54 beds per 1000, would certainly be on the list of countries in difficulty

The situation is a little different with regards to ICU beds.  Italy has 12.5 per 100,000.  The UK is clearly at high risk of running out with 6.6 per 100,000.  The USA, however, has them in relative abundance, at 29.3 per 100,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 06:48:28 PM by Paddy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2822 on: March 16, 2020, 06:32:35 PM »
^^
Quote from: Paddy
...The USA, however, has them in abundance, at 29.3 per 1000

That would be 29.3 (ICU beds) per 100,000 people according to your source.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

deep octopus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2823 on: March 16, 2020, 06:40:53 PM »
There are almost 1,000 (confirmed) cases of COVID-19 in New York State, which has a population of 20,000,000. The state has 3,186 beds, which are at 80% capacity. That means about 600 ICU vacancies. This is the situation.

https://twitter.com/nycspeakercojo/status/1239575722030780418?s=21

https://twitter.com/johnghendy/status/1239222476133064705?s=21

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2824 on: March 16, 2020, 06:48:44 PM »
^^
Quote from: Paddy
...The USA, however, has them in abundance, at 29.3 per 1000

That would be 29.3 (ICU beds) per 100,000 people according to your source.

Whoops! Corrected that

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2825 on: March 16, 2020, 07:01:54 PM »
Infected People Without Symptoms Might be Driving the Spread of Coronavirus More Than We Realized
https://whdh.com/news/infected-people-without-symptoms-might-be-driving-the-spread-of-coronavirus-more-than-we-realized/amp/

For weeks, federal officials have emphasized that asymptomatic transmission can happen, but have said that it’s not a significant factor in the spread of the virus.

... But during a press briefing at the White House on Saturday, the administration’s coronavirus response coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx, seemed to strike a somewhat different note on asymptomatic transmission.

She said they’re trying to understand people under the age of 20 who don’t have “significant symptoms” — “Are they a group that are potentially asymptomatic and spreading the virus?” she asked.

... it’s become clear that transmission by people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic is responsible for more transmission than previously thought.

“We now know that asymptomatic transmission likely [plays] an important role in spreading this virus,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Osterholm added that it’s “absolutely clear” that asymptomatic infection “surely can fuel a pandemic like this in a way that’s going to make it very difficult to control.”

... “Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic transmission are a major factor in transmission for Covid-19,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and longtime adviser to the CDC. “They’re going to be the drivers of spread in the community.”

... There are also reports in other countries of significant transmission by people who are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic.

On Tuesday, Dr. Sandra Ciesek, director of the Institute of Medical Virology in Frankfurt, Germany, tested 24 passengers who had just flown in from Israel.

Seven of the 24 passengers tested positive for coronavirus. Four of those had no symptoms, and Ciesek was surprised to find that the viral load of the specimens from the asymptomatic patients was higher than the viral load of the specimens from the three patients who did have symptoms.

... A study posted Sunday by Belgian and Dutch researchers shows that between 48% and 66% of the 91 people in the Singapore cluster contracted the infection from someone who was pre-symptomatic. Of the 135 people in the Tianjin cluster, between 62% and 77% caught it from someone was pre-symptomatic.

Singaporean researchers looked at the same outbreaks in Tianjin and Singapore and found that infection was transmitted on average 2.55 days and 2.89 days before symptom onset respectively in each location.

“Our analysis would suggest that presymptomatic transmission is pretty commonplace,” said the study’s lead author, Caroline Colijn, who leads the mathematics, genomics and prediction in infection and evolution research group at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia.

----------------------------

The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, citing "a lack of federal direction and nationwide standards" announced Monday they have agreed to jointly reduce density throughout the region, closing movie theaters and limiting public gatherings to fewer than 50 people.

..."We have agreed to a common set of rules that will pertain in all of our states, so don't even think about going to a neighboring state because there's going to be a different set of conditions," Cuomo said during a joint media call with fellow Democratic Govs. Ned Lamont of Connecticut and Phil Murphy of New Jersey.

Effective 8 p.m. ET Monday, all three states will prohibit crowds of 50 or more, including private parties; restaurants and bars will need to close, except for takeout or delivery orders; gyms and movie theaters also will need to close, as will nontribal casinos. The rules are in effect "until further notice," Murphy said.

At a separate press conference later Monday morning, Cuomo said the state was working on a uniform policy to close public schools as well. "We will be closing all schools," he said.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/16/new-york-new-jersey-connecticut-closing-bars-restaurants-indefinitely-starting-monday-night-1267159

---------------------------

Trump claims coronavirus is under control -- contradicting reality and his own top expert
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/16/politics/coronavirus-us-president-donald-trump-fauci-politics/index.html

America's top infectious diseases expert is warning that hundreds of thousands of Americans could die unless every citizen joins an effort to blunt the coronavirus pandemic -- only to be contradicted by President Donald Trump, who insists the virus is under "tremendous" control

-------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2826 on: March 16, 2020, 07:22:37 PM »
Finland going to a state of emergency starting tomorrow. Any tourists returning to get a 14 day quarantine, plenty of other measures, people's movements internally maybe later restricted as well. If you planned a nice retreat to Finnish countryside and got in the country in time you won't like it here. Wouldn't be surprised if some trespassers will be shot next month or two.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finland_closes_schools_declares_state_of_emergency_over_coronavirus/11260062
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2827 on: March 16, 2020, 07:29:22 PM »
Wouldn't be surprised if doctors or nurses are killed because they reserved the ventilation machine for the other person who had a better chance to survive.

We can't even imagine the social fallout coming to us.

Stay the fuck home!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2828 on: March 16, 2020, 07:30:49 PM »
Health Care Ontario is setting up test centers away from ER sites. They aren't walkin clinics and appointments must be made.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/grand-river-hospital-coronavirus-clinic-away-from-er-1.5492566


On the 14th Ontario had 100 cases, this morning the 16th we're up to 179.
5 regional cases.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


All "Senior's" facilities have been closed.
My dentist is only accepting emergency cases.
Spring festivals, concerts are canceled.
The Ancient Mariners Canoe Club has shut down.
Mensa Ontario has cancelled all meetings.


One visitor at hospitals only & that one will be screened.
My friend Brian's memorial service has been cancelled.
Carol has ordered a box of masks - I'll report when and if they are delivered.


Carol and I have caught some kind of minor bug, but it doesn't appear to be COVID-19.
Television is amazingly trite & boring.


Stay isolated, Stay healthy, Stay in touch!
Terry

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2829 on: March 16, 2020, 07:31:35 PM »

Waiting to hear if France is going to be on total lockdown (as of midnight Saturday we are already on partial lockdown).  Pictures of people frolicking and picnic-ing along the Seine and in Bordeaux yesterday havent given a good impression. 


Shop stock emptying fast - certainly no toilet paper, pasta or potatoes.   Still some baked beans though.   Macron on at 8pm / 7pm UTC... :-[

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2830 on: March 16, 2020, 07:35:28 PM »
Italy Virus Deaths Surpass 2,000
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Italy has reported 349 new deaths from the novel coronavirus, taking its total since last month to 2,158, the most after China.

The number of official COVID-19 fatalities has more than doubled since Thursday, when Italy's toll topped 1,000 for the first time.

Italy now has 27,980 infections, compared to 15,113 four days ago.

-----------------------------

Coronavirus has even reached Greenland. The island which largely falls inside the Arctic Circle and has a population of 56,000, reported its first case in the capital Nuuk.

... Hopefully we won’t see a full-on outbreak, as we already lack the staff and the resources. Also, we don’t have testing equipment for the virus here in Greenland. So all tests are flown to Denmark for analysis, creating a delay in response.

-----------------------------

An estimated 140,000 people have been laid off in Ireland since emergency measures to combat coronavirus were introduced four days ago, according to national broadcaster RTE.

This is a combination of 70,000 restaurant workers, 50,000 pub and bar staff, and around 20,000 crèche and childcare workers. it reported.

This is a huge shock to the economy and triple them monthly unemployment numbers in the 2010 crash and possibly gives a glimpse of the consequences to come if the UK’s follows EU countries and moves to close schools and introduce curfews on restaurants and bars.

-----------------------------

EU Suspends Non-Essential Travel
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-live-updates-us-cdc-events-europe-lockdown-uk-deaths-australia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news?page=with:block-5e6fa86a8f085e564ad85227#liveblog-navigation

The EU is proposing suspending all non-essential travel for 30 days, the president of the EU commission has announced.

-----------------------------

WHO chief: 'Test, test, test' for coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

The World Health Organization (WHO) called on all countries to ramp up their testing programmes as the best way to slow the advance of the coronavirus pandemic.

"You cannot fight a fire blindfolded... We have a simple message for all countries - test, test, test," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news conference in Geneva.

Without testing, cases could not be isolated and the chain of infection would not be broken, he added.

----------------------------

Two major online supermarket websites in the UK went into meltdown today and imposed “virtual queues” for their shoppers as retailers battled to cope with the ongoing surge of online grocery orders due to fears about the impact of coronavirus.

As panic buying continues to sweep the UK, Waitrose shoppers were left unable to complete their planned grocery orders due to “technical issues” while Ocado customers were also told they had to wait in a “virtual queue” of at least fifteen minutes.

After ongoing technical glitches over the weekend, which led to many Ocado deliveries this morning delayed and then cancelled at short notice, the online grocer also said that it will not be processing “new customers bookings” until further notice. It has also suspended its online shopping app which failed last Friday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-live-updates-us-cdc-events-europe-lockdown-uk-deaths-australia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news?page=with:block-5e6fa86a8f085e564ad85227#liveblog-navigation

-----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2831 on: March 16, 2020, 07:48:58 PM »
I do not believe the Covid death toll reported by Germany. I bet they are reporting comorbidities as the cause of death and only report Covid deaths in cases there is no other comorbidity. It's either that or they have a cure and are not sharing.
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2832 on: March 16, 2020, 07:50:27 PM »
Quote
This will show the ten most optimistic fellow posters who voted in this poll were, alas, overly optimistic.

I didn't think Trump and Boris were sabotaging the medical response. It never occurred to me. This was completely containable. It still is, if testing gets going with a vengeance.

Your prediction was totally unrealistic.

Boris Johnson follows advice from his medical experts. Trump, well, everybody should have known that he would not do that.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2833 on: March 16, 2020, 07:54:10 PM »
The COVID Tracking Project
https://covidtracking.com/

The COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states and the District of Columbia to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to include positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data.

https://covidtracking.com/data/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2834 on: March 16, 2020, 08:06:46 PM »
Quote
Your prediction was totally unrealistic.

Liar. South Koreas's strategy is not revolutionary, it was the standard. If we didn't have traitorous murdering liars in charge this thing would've been under control already.

Trump and the other traitor's plan has been the same from the beginning. Let it burn through. We could have stopped this pain weeks ago. We still could. But no. pietkuip gave up.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2835 on: March 16, 2020, 08:10:00 PM »
I didn't think Trump and Boris were sabotaging the medical response. It never occurred to me. This was completely containable. It still is, if testing gets going with a vengeance.

This is the lie! Nothing else!

Also, learn to quote correctly. This is the bare minimum, Archimid.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2836 on: March 16, 2020, 08:38:15 PM »
South Korea stopped it. China Stopped it. Taiwan stopped it. All they did was wear masks, test, track and isolate.

What is happening in Europe and is soon to happen in the US is due to relaxed testing and no mask-wearing.

Sadly the outcome still predictable. People will keep in a massive way unless everyone starts wearing masks and contact tracing is done like it was supposed to be done.

Sadly Johnson and Trump still want to force their people through this like they are forcing them to go through climate change through lies, deceit and unnecessary deaths. 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2837 on: March 16, 2020, 08:48:56 PM »
.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2838 on: March 16, 2020, 08:55:13 PM »
Thanks for that, Sig! :-*
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2839 on: March 16, 2020, 08:59:45 PM »
Archimid, if you are not carrying the virus, a mask is counterproductive! It makes you unintentionally touch your face all the time. THIS IS HOW YOU GET ILL! You are not supposed to touch your face.

Masks are for the ill people so that they don't distribute the virus. But if you are ill YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO SAY THE FUCK HOME anyway. You can't distribute the virus WHEN YOU STAY HOME. In Europe, you have paid sick leave.

South Korea stopped it because they tested everyone and their dogs. They knew exactly who to quarantine. This is why they are so successful. In the US you have an administration actively prohibiting testing because the manchild of a president don't want to see high numbers of infected people. He is sabotaging actively the development of tests. This approach was condemned by Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten (the world-leading expert on SARS) two weeks ago and nothing has changed in the US. There is still not enough testing.

China has stopped it because PEOPLE STAYED THE FUCK HOME! The government made sure they would and could.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2840 on: March 16, 2020, 09:02:12 PM »
Your grandparents were called to war. You're being called to sit on your couch. You can do this.

This is gold!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2841 on: March 16, 2020, 09:04:41 PM »
I do not believe the Covid death toll reported by Germany. I bet they are reporting comorbidities as the cause of death and only report Covid deaths in cases there is no other comorbidity. It's either that or they have a cure and are not sharing.

This is a conspiracy theory. Or do you have any proof for this statement?
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2842 on: March 16, 2020, 09:17:37 PM »
Archimid, if you are not carrying the virus, a mask is counterproductive! It makes you unintentionally touch your face all the time. THIS IS HOW YOU GET ILL! You are not supposed to touch your face.

Let me put it simply. The only way a mask can infect the wearer is if it caught the virus somehow. If it caught it, very likely it would have gone into your respiratory system anyway. So in all likelihood, if you got infected form your mask, the infection was at least delayed by the mask.

So NO mask means zero protection. Any sort of mask means some protection. Some is better than nothing.

On top of that, the real reason you wear a mask is that no one knows they are infected until they develop a fever and get tested. If we assume we are all infected and wear masks to stop infecting others, then the problem is basically solved.

Its basic physics. Masks work like the earth is round. Masks do not work like the Earth is flat.
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Steven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2843 on: March 16, 2020, 09:18:35 PM »
From Robert Rohde on twitter:  a graph showing the per capita number of cases, recoveries and deaths in various countries.  The link also has an animation showing how these numbers evolved over the past 2 months.  As he notes, the caveat is that in many places the official numbers may greatly underestimate the true number of infections, due to limited testing.

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1239344674160205824



RunningChristo

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2844 on: March 16, 2020, 09:20:06 PM »
Maybe Germany manage to test many more of these younger groups least prone to die. Any statistics around proving this? Also my country, Norway, so far is keeping a fairly low mortalityrate. Is this due to a more efficient healthcaresystem, thus being able to act earlier, monitoring the pasients more thoroughly?

What ever it is, too few are being tested these days, making the numbers out there highly unreliable, making it pretty hard to predict the direction this virus will bounce.
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2845 on: March 16, 2020, 09:21:11 PM »
Its basic physics. Masks work like the earth is round. Masks do not work like the Earth is flat.
Typical physicist being outside their area of expertise.

Lots of people with masks did contract the virus.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2846 on: March 16, 2020, 09:29:39 PM »
From Robert Rohde on twitter:  a graph showing the per capita number of cases, recoveries and deaths in various countries.  The link also has an animation showing how these numbers evolved over the past 2 months.  As he notes, the caveat is that in many places the official numbers may greatly underestimate the true number of infections, due to limited testing.

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1239344674160205824




That is interesting! Of course, Iceland does not have the highest number of cases. The virus got there only after the skiing vacations in the Italian Alps. Iceland does not have big carnaval celebrations like Germany, Netherlands, etc. Social distances are probably larger there than in most countries.

It is just that they are testing a lot. They also try to have this huge genetic database, etc.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2847 on: March 16, 2020, 09:34:29 PM »
Let me put it simply. The only way a mask can infect the wearer is if it caught the virus somehow. If it caught it, very likely it would have gone into your respiratory system anyway. So in all likelihood, if you got infected form your mask, the infection was at least delayed by the mask

So, you think you know it better than the experts. Why am i not surprised?
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2848 on: March 16, 2020, 09:38:33 PM »
Quote
Your prediction was totally unrealistic.

Liar. South Koreas's strategy is not revolutionary, it was the standard. If we didn't have traitorous murdering liars in charge this thing would've been under control already.

Trump and the other traitor's plan has been the same from the beginning. Let it burn through. We could have stopped this pain weeks ago. We still could. But no. pietkuip gave up.

On 23 January, they had to close every airport for a couple weeks. Only Cargo. Now they will be closed for a much longer time. Probably the holiday season is over for the rest of the year.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2849 on: March 16, 2020, 09:40:07 PM »
I've worked in BSL-3 labs and worn negative pressure suits and N95 respirators. I've seen evolution first-hand trough growing colonies of microorganisms and observing in human time how they grow and change over time. I've also worked with the microscopic world for a living.  That was long ago, but about this, I know enough to know what works.

Masks are a numbers game. No mask, no protection. A bandana? weak protection from others, adequate at protecting others from yourself. A surgical mask? moderate protection from others, outstanding at protecting others from self. An N95 respirator? Outstanding protection from others, especially when combined with face shields. A negative pressure suit? the best protection you can have. Even then, it is not 100% safe because shit happens.

Quote
So, you think you know it better than the experts. Why am i not surprised?

If an expert tells me that the earth is flat I will not believe them either.
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