COVID-19

[blumenkraft]

Interesting how the US government labels coronavirus patients "Consumers"

[vox_mundi]

White House Says to Avoid Gatherings Larger Than 10 People
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/mar/16/donald-trump-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-coronavirus-live-news-updates

The White House has now said Americans should avoid gatherings larger than 10 people in order to slow the spread of the virus

Trump said the health guidelines aimed at mitigating the spread of coronavirus could extend into the summer.

The president said experts have told him to expect that this new reality could extend into July or August and possibly longer.

“It’s bad,” Trump acknowledged of the coronavirus crisis. However, he said the US is trying to avoid a worst-case scenario by deploying these guidelines.

(... yesterday it was 'Relax ... Everything will be fine')

Trump says he's not currently considering nationwide lockdown

https://mobile.twitter.com/finnygo/status/1239634404529618944



But Fauci clarified that the president was not saying these guidelines will necessarily be in effect until then.

The latest guidelines, which advise Americans to avoid gatherings larger than 10 people, will be in effect for 15 days, Fauci said. Then the coronavirus response team will revisit them.

However, Fauci said experts expect coronavirus cases to continue into the summer and possibly later.

... "If we do a really good job... people are talking about July, August," Trump told reporters, saying he might ask the military to help build temporary hospitals to tackle rising numbers of sick.

-----------------------------

US Airlines Want $50 Billion In Government Bailout Welfare From the Coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-airlines-seek-more-than-50-billion-in-aid-as-coronavirus-roils-business.html

But...but...socialism!

-----------------------------

Trump says market will 'take care of itself' after Dow drops nearly 3,000 points
Trump voiced confidence that the markets would recover from the coronavirus crisis, as the Dow closed down nearly 3,000 points.

“The market will take care of itself,” Trump said. “The market will be very strong once we get rid of the virus.” (... the virus is likely to become endemic)

-------------------------------

Trump says postponing elections is 'unnecessary'

Trump said he did not think it was necessary to postpone elections amid the coronavirus crisis.

“Postponing elections is not a very good thing,” Trump said. “I think postponing is unnecessary.”

His comments came shortly after Ohio announced it was canceling in-person voting tomorrow for the Democratic presidential primary.

------------------------------

Unclear on the Concept

Trump gave himself top marks for his administration’s response to the coronavirus crisis.

“I’d rate it a 10,” the president said when asked to rate his response on a scale of 1 to 10. “I think we’ve done a great job.”

-----------------------------

The Pentagon has moved to Health Protection Condition Bravo, or HPCON B. Gen.Miller and other defense officials spoke to the department’s global workforce via public livestream on the military’s DVIDS imagery site.

A few miles away, the Armed Forces Retirement Home has been moved to HPCON C, one level higher than the Pentagon, to provide added protection for the elderly population there.

[blumenkraft]

If an expert tells me that the earth is flat I will not believe them either.

You discredited yourself pretty hard with this one, Archimid. How are you not embarrassed?

*insert facepalm emoji!*

[vox_mundi]

... Interesting how the US government labels coronavirus patients "Consumers"

We stopped being called 'citizens' long ago

[pietkuip]

... Interesting how the US government labels coronavirus patients "Consumers"

We stopped being called 'citizens' long ago

At best, we are considered human resources. To be exploited.

[Thomas Barlow]

500,000 - 1,000,000 worldwide.
10 million babies born every month on the planet.

[vox_mundi]

... Interesting how the US government labels coronavirus patients "Consumers"

We stopped being called 'citizens' long ago

At best, we are considered human resources. To be exploited.

Something to be used and discarded when everything of value has been squeezed out of it. The NAZI's had a similar accounting principle.

[be cause]

saw a study of infection on a bus recently . Those that caught the virus were not wearing masks . Those without were infected , even several meters away from the infected passenger . b.c.

[vox_mundi]

Coronavirus Outbreak, 6 Bay Area Counties Ordered to Shelter in Place
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-16/nine-san-francisco-bay-area-counties-ordered-to-shelter-in-place?_amp=true

MENLO PARK, Calif. —  Six counties in the San Francisco Bay Area will be placed under a shelter-in-place directive by public health officials in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, a move that will close virtually all businesses and direct residents to remain at home

More than 6.7 million people live in San Francisco and the five counties issuing this order – Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda counties.

San Mateo Mayor Joe Goethals said he believed that the order, to be issued Monday afternoon, will put the six counties on perhaps the most restrictive public health footing anywhere in America since the outbreak of the potentially deadly coronavirus. Earlier the mayor had said nine counties would be affected, but then he corrected that number.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed later confirmed that, effective midnight, city residents would be required to stay at home “except for essential needs.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/LondonBreed/status/1239626809865416704

Only police and fire departments, hospitals, grocery stores, pharmacies and a few other businesses will be allowed to remain open under the shelter-in-place order, said Goethals, who holds a master’s degree in public health. Residents will be able to go to grocery stores and other essential services, but Goethals urged residents not to rush, adding that stores will remain fully stocked.

The pending order further escalates the economic damage caused by COVID-19, but many health expects say extreme measures are needed to prevent the virus from spreading further and overwhelming hospitals and the nation’s healthcare system.

The order will come from public health officials in six counties around the Bay — San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda. It will last for at least two weeks and could be extended for a third week, Goethals said.

... Edward Collins, 71, a retired police officer who lives in Pacheco, had a different reaction. He called the coming order “a tempest in a teapot.”

“I don’t know how we can stop the virus anyway, how we can slow it down,” he said. “To me this is just a big inconvenience over something that is not much more than a cold.” (... as he adjusts his imaginary red MAGA cap)

... In Menlo Park, Israel Torres, a checker at Safeway, seemed both calm and frustrated by the pending announcement.

“Things have been crazy. They decided they had to close the doors. There’s nothing on the shelves and people were getting angry,” he said.

He wasn’t wearing gloves or a mask. He said management hadn’t supplied workers with these items. He happily accepted a small bottle of hand sanitizer from a customer.

[vox_mundi]

Trump to Governors on Ventilators: ‘Try Getting It Yourselves’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-respirators.html

On a conference call with the nation’s governors, President Trump said they should try to get ventilators on their own ahead of an expected crush of coronavirus cases.

... “Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves,” Mr. Trump told the governors during the conference call, a recording of which was shared with The New York Times. “We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves. Point of sales, much better, much more direct if you can get it yourself.”

WTF!!!!!!

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) said he was surprised when Trump told the governors that they should see if they can find ventilators on their own, comparing the fight to a war in which “we just heard our leader say you all need to get your own weapons and ammo at the state level to defeat this. But that’s the way it’s been.”

.. Mr. Trump used much of the call to repeat the same upbeat theme he has offered in public, assuring the governors: “We’re going to get it remedied and hopefully very quickly.”

... Aside from Mr. Trump’s predictions — which are at odds with his medical advisers, who say the worst is yet to come — the president seemed to evince little awareness of the severity of the contagion.

... Trump tweeted Monday afternoon that he “just had a very good tele-conference with the Nations’s Governors” and that it “went very well.” But he singled out one particular state executive, calling on Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D-N.Y.) to “‘do more.’ ”

Cuomo shot back via Twitter: “I have to do more? No — YOU have to do something! You’re supposed to be the President.”

[blumenkraft]

saw a study of infection on a bus recently . Those that caught the virus were not wearing masks . Those without were infected , even several meters away from the infected passenger . b.c.

Yes, the mask can protect you from airborne droplets. But those droplets make it to any surface eventually.

Meaning, if you are on a bus with contagious people, the virus is also on surfaces. Surfaces you likely touch. And when you adjust your mask and touch your face, this face touching is what brings the virus closer to your mouth and throat.

This is why the recommendation is social distancing. Avoid being near the airborne droplets, and don't touch your face.

The problem is that people tend to touch their face more often when they are wearing a mask.

On a crowded bus, you will likely catch the virus with or without a mask. Avoid crowded busses if you can.

Stay the fuck home.

[vox_mundi]

Stock Market Erases Nearly All Gains Since Trump Inauguration
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-031620/index.html

The index finished at 20,180 points, just above the 19,732 points it was at when Trump came into office, a daily decline of 12.96%. The drop was the second-largest decline ever, second only to 1987's "Black Monday."


Movement of the Dow Jones between January 2017 and March 2020, showing the all-time high in February, and the crash in February and March during the COVID-19 pandemic

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash

--------------------------

US Sales of Guns and Ammunition Soar Amid Coronavirus Panic Buying
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/us-sales-guns-ammunition-soar-amid-coronavirus-panic-buying

[be cause]

hi bl .. the bus and infections were a documented examination of the value and effect of wearing masks . It was early in the Chinese outbreak with one of the first vectors . The science was all on the side of the mask . If otherwise I'm sure China would have been telling their people to enjoy the fresh air mask free .
   Does it surprise folk that the Chinese value their people more than the west ? . The UK seems to have chosen the route of mass death and get it over with . Not testing old folk and not protecting their carers .. no masks : not protecting anyone it seems .. b.c.

[vox_mundi]

Assholes Who Ridiculed Preparations For the Covid-19 Pandemic Are Having a Change of Heart
https://gizmodo.com/assholes-who-ridiculed-preparations-for-the-covid-19-pa-1842357421

Newt Gingrich on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show on February 27, 2020 ridiculing San Francisco for declaring a state of emergency over covid-19

... “I think the great irony of all this, is that the city of San Francisco, in its usual irresponsible way, has already declared an emergency even though no one in San Francisco has so far shown that they have the disease,” Gingrich said on Sean Hannity’s show on February 27.

When Gingrich made those comments on February 27, just 14 people had died in Italy, a number that’s now at 1,809 deaths and 24,747 cases. Gingrich is living in Italy because his wife is the U.S. ambassador to the Vatican.

... Newt Gingrich was on Fox News this morning explaining that all Americans should prepare for the covid-19 pandemic. But Gingrich has pulled quite a 180 during a very short period of time. Just a few weeks ago the former Republican Speaker of the House was on Fox News ridiculing San Francisco for making preparations as the threat of the new coronavirus became clear to people who were paying attention. And Gingrich’s about-face seems to be part of a larger trend of assholes changing their minds about the seriousness of the public health threat that has infected at least 3,813 Americans and killed 69 in the U.S. alone.

Compare those comments in February to what Gingrich is saying now on shows like Fox and Friends. Gingrich even wrote an op-ed in Newsweek yesterday, titled “I am in Italy amid the coronavirus crisis. American must act now—and act big,” warning that, “Faced with a pandemic threat, history teaches us it is far better to be over prepared than underprepared.”

“We in America can learn a lot of lessons from what’s happening, particularly in Northern Italy,” Gingrich said.

... Not everyone has turned the corner on their attitude about covid-19 yet.

Former Milwaukee sheriff and Trump supporter David A. Clarke Jr. told his Twitter followers over the weekend to go out in defiance of quarantines, adding, “If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS.” And Ron Paul, a libertarian icon and former Congressman, also published a new blog post today suggesting the covid-19 pandemic was a “big hoax” to justify the implementation of martial law.

... There were plenty of people who took this seriously from the beginning. You don’t need to let people like Newt Gingrich warn about the covid-19 threat just because Americans have the collective memory of a fucking goldfish.

[Stephen]

   Does it surprise folk that the Chinese value their people more than the west ? .

The Chinese have done what they have done partly because they can do it.  China is a one-party state dictatorship with much more control of their population.  So when the Chinese police or army turn up in riot gear, weld the doors shut and lock down a building then people stay locked up.  Can you imagine British, Australian or American police doing that?   

[be cause]

sure isn't it only 10 short days ago since Trump was claiming the USA ONLY HAD 22 CASES .. now there is only 69 dead . Sorry, correction .. 86 .  Asshole !  b.c.

[vox_mundi]

Stay safe b.c. ...

-------------------------

Irish PM expects 15,000 cases by end of March
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

Ireland expects its number of coronavirus cases to increase to around 15,000 by the end of the month from 169 currently, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said, predicting it would be dealing with the pandemic for many months.

"We would expect that by the end of the month there would be maybe 15,000 people who would have tested positive for Covid-19, most of those will not need treatment but a proportion will need to be hospitalised and we need to make sure that it doesn't happen at the same time," Vardkar told a news conference.

---------------------------

France reports 21 more coronavirus deaths
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

France's Public Health Authority reported 21 new deaths from coronavirus taking the total to 148, an increase of around 16 percent.

It said on its website that the number of cases had risen to 6,633, up from 5,423 on Sunday, which is a rise of more than 20% in 24 hours.

[edmountain]

...

As he notes, the caveat is that in many places the official numbers may greatly underestimate the true number of infections, due to limited testing.

...

On that note there was a paper published online in Science today providing evidence that in China during the period January 10-23, i.e. prior to the implementation of widespread testing and travel restrictions, that more than 80% of cases went undocumented.

I think this furthers the case that there is likely substantially more infection in places where access to testing has been limited. For example, if we extrapolate these numbers to the USA could there actually be 32,000 cases in the US rather than the documented 4,600?

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

[vox_mundi]

There are probably 12-15,000 cases walking around just based on the lag between becoming infected and beginning to show symptoms.

 If we are only seeing 10-20% of the cases based on lack of testing there could be 75,000-150,000 walking around with the virus just in the US.

[Sam]

...

As he notes, the caveat is that in many places the official numbers may greatly underestimate the true number of infections, due to limited testing.

...

On that note there was a paper published online in Science today providing evidence that in China during the period January 10-23, i.e. prior to the implementation of widespread testing and travel restrictions, that more than 80% of cases went undocumented.

I think this furthers the case that there is likely substantially more infection in places where access to testing has been limited. For example, if we extrapolate these numbers to the USA could there actually be 32,000 cases in the US rather than the documented 4,600?

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

edmountain,

Based on a couple of simple thumb rules (which I explained before) from the various time lags involved and the observed growth rate - WITHOUT assuming there is some hidden reservoir - I estimate that there are currently 60,000-70,000 people infected in the United States. The beginnings of controls started now, may begin to slow the growth in about a week. By that time there will likely be between one-third and one-half a million people infected in the United States.

The models being used are often assuming a ~ 6.2 day doubling time. That is seriously wrong and leads to a gross underestimate of the coming impacts and the speed and severity with which those impacts will arrive.

They have at least begun mostly voluntary controls. The public is doing more. Those will reduce the growth rate. Just how effective they are is yet to be seen. The holes in the recommendations will seriously blunt their effectiveness. As yet, economic interests are still prevailing over health interest in the crafting of the guidelines and rules. That creates a hole large enough to fly a Jumbo Jet through.  Expect the supply of hospital beds to be exhausted well before the end of the month with triage then starting.

Good luck everyone. Isolate if you can - for as long as you can. The great ugliness is now beginning in earnest.

Sam

[vox_mundi]

Good luck Sam ...

---------------------------------

France to deploy 100,000 police to enforce lockdown
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/toll-rises-coronavirus-tightens-global-grip-live-updates-200315231500487.html

France will deploy 100,000 police to enforce a lockdown, and fixed checkpoints will be set up across the country.

"Stay at home," Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said, adding that fines of up to 135 euros ($151) would be handed out to those who do not respect the new restrictions, which are centred on avoiding all but essential social contact.

Coronavirus has killed 148 people and infected more than 6,600 in France, where, along with Spain, infections and fatalities have been surging at a pace just days behind that of Italy, the epicentre of the outbreak in Europe.

-----------------------------



https://mobile.twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1239675501033033728

-----------------------------

Due to high-volume, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment has closed the drive-up testing site at the Denver Coliseum for the rest of the day today, Saturday, March 14. The line was cut off at 200 cars today.

-----------------------------

William Barr, the US attorney general, gave a directive on Monday to US attorneys telling them to focus investigating and prosecuting criminals taking advantage of the Covid-19 crisis to scam Americans.

This includes fake cures for the coronavirus being peddled online and phishing emails from scammers posing as the World Health organization or the CDC.

--------------------------

Russia ramps up coronavirus controls, bans public events, closes schools
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-moscow-events-idUSL8N2B96M4

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin prohibited all outdoor events and limited public indoor events to no more than 50 people until April 10, he said in a blog post on his personal website, citing the need to strengthen the city’s quarantine measures.

In Moscow, Sobyanin said that all state schools, sports schools and further education institutions in the city would be closed from March 21 until April 12.

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Russia rose to 93 on Monday, but no deaths have yet been reported.

[vox_mundi]

Telemedicine companies are struggling to serve ‘extreme volumes’ of patients as coronavirus calls surge
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-live-updates-us-retail-closures-could-explode-irans-deaths-surge.html

Telemedicine services are more important now than ever. But some hospitals say their technology tools are breaking down, as huge volumes of people try to consult with a doctor about their symptoms. 

At Cleveland Clinic, which is encouraging patients worried about coronavirus symptoms to use a virtual service called Express Care Online, three providers told CNBC that the technology has been spotty all day, crashed multiple times, and resulted in delays of more than an hour.

The hospital chain has asked via social media that patients avoid going straight to the emergency room, so the ER could be saved for critical cases. Instead, it has asked them to use Express Care Online so that patients who can remain home to recover can do so without infecting anyone else.

--------------------------

Long Island, NY patients being told coronavirus tests will take up to seven days. Sign outside urgent care clinic in Rocky Point

https://mobile.twitter.com/schwartznewsNY/status/1239672462759137280



... might be dead before you get your lab results

-----------------------------

Due to high-volume, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment has closed the drive-up testing site at the Denver Coliseum for the rest of the day today, Saturday, March 14. The line was cut off at 200 cars today.

-----------------------------

Latest Coronavirus Testing Glitch: Not Enough Cotton Swabs
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/coronavirus-testing-glitch-cotton-swabs-132692

During a Sunday night conference call, HHS Assistant Secretary of Health Brett Giroir warned more than 300 representatives of commercial laboratories, hospitals and state health departments that the Trump administration anticipates supply “speed bumps” as testing expands, a person on the call told POLITICO.

The materials in question include swabs that medical workers use to collect samples of patients’ phlegm and saliva for testing, and disposable plastic tips for the pipettes that lab technicians use to transfer liquids. Testing labs say they’re also concerned about the availability of personal protective equipment for their staff.

Fears about securing these basic supplies are the latest concern for public health officials as they scramble to institute the widespread testing that is desperately needed to track the spread of the coronavirus and limit the growing U.S. outbreak. The pace of U.S. testing has already been slowed by shortages of critical materials used to prep patient samples for analysis and problems with an early test developed by the CDC.

-----------------------------------

Masks and Test Kits Donated by Jack Ma Arrive In US
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3075469/coronavirus-masks-and-test-kits-donated-jack-ma-arrive-us

The first shipment of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma’s donation of 1 million masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the United States arrived in the US on Monday morning.

The supplies, which will be distributed by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), were purchased in China since its factories have gradually resumed production. The shipment of a second batch will depend on availability, said a spokesman at the Jack Ma Foundation.

Shortages of laboratory equipment, reagents and swabs in the US mean many people are still unable to be tested despite the CDC’s guidance that anyone with a doctor’s order can do so with no restrictions.

----------------------------

[TerryM]

We've done fairly well in the past at keeping our disagreements civil. Everyone is understandably on edge. We can and have done better.


I've found that wearing a mask and gloves keeps everyone at bay, surely not a bad outcome.


The "bus graph" showed everyone masked was OK. Otherwise those within 4.5 meters of the carrier were at risk.


Two of the Scandinavian countries report problems among the young. One reported 50% of the infected were under 60, the other reported the 50% line to be at 50 years. Bad news for the young!


We need more testing and more tracking, testing and isolating of those that have been exposed.


Stay isolated, stay healthy, stay in touch and stay friendly.
Terry

[Tom_Mazanec]

TerryM:
Where the tanj do you get a mask?

[Sam]

TerryM:
Where the tanj do you get a mask?

If he is anything like me ....

I keep a box of N95’s and nitrile gloves in my trunk. I keep the full face respirator with everything cartridges in the basement. Along with the light duty tyvek protective suit.  Leftover habits of a lifetime getting dipped in things.

Sam

[Archimid]

The problem is that people tend to touch their face more often when they are wearing a mask.

And that conclusion is supported only by the fact that you never notice yourself touching your face. People touch their face all the time. So much so that we don't even notice it. Look:




It's not that all those people are not disciplined or stupid. Is that touching your face is as natural a reaction as a dog wagging its tail. We do it all the time. We can't help it unless we focus on that to the detriment of everything else. Surely discipline can be built to not touch your face, but once your attention is in something else, you will touch your face.

In my house, we use each other. It's much easier to catch each other than to catch ourselves.

But once again. The main reason everyone should cover their mouth is to slow down the speed and amount of particles that leave through the mouth and nose. Masks can do that. Are they perfect? absolutely not. But they can help slow down the spread significantly. There will be fewer particles leaving people mouths and those particles that leave will have lost momentum. That means lower R0.

[be cause]

cases doubled outside China from below 50,000 to over 100,000 in the last 5 days . b.c.

[TerryM]

^^
I'd picked up a total of 4 on recent hospital visits (pre- COVID-19). My wife ordered a box on line today - I'll report back when and if they're delivered. She'd purchased a box of gloves online ~ one week ago.


I believe that after 14 days the masks are reusable (they're surgical masks), and I store them out on the balcony.


Very few here are wearing masks yet, so they're still seen as a deterrent to close contact. If I were to be sneezed upon I'd dispose of the mask. Otherwise I've 2 in storage and 2 that haven't been worn.
Terry

[Sam]

Edmountain,

Correction. I just saw the most recent log plot of the confirmed count in the US. It shows a 1.35-1.37x/day increase rate for the last several weeks. I had thought with the beginning of public actions that that might have dropped to 1.25x/day. It hasn’t.  At least it hasn’t yet. Beginning now it should. But now won’t show up in the data for 11 days.

Correcting for that, I suspect that we now have 135,000-150,000 people infected in the US. That should show up as confirmed numbers 11 days from now, by which time the count of infected (not the confirmed count, but the actually infected count) will be about 800,000 to 1 million. - give or take a lot due to uncertainties. 7 days later that should be counted as 160-200 thousand hospital admissions for critical care, about April 3-4. That will likely then double over the next week - reaching perhaps 700,000 by tax day - April 15. Said differently - the US may have no available ICU beds then.

I really really want to be wrong with this swag estimate.

Sam

[vox_mundi]

Dems Call for ‘War’ on Coronavirus, But Military Says Help is Limited
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/dems-call-war-coronavirus-military-says-help-limited/163825/

Pentagon officials speaking to reporters Monday afternoon cautioned that the military’s ability to create hospital facilities to help handle the growing cases may be limited. 

“We do have tent hospitals, deployable hospitals. The challenge is, they’re designed to take care of trauma patients and combat casualties,” U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Paul Friedrichs, the Joint Staff surgeon, told reporters at the Pentagon and on a conference call, “We don’t have any 500-bed hospitals designed for infectious disease outbreaks.”

The military’s largest moveable medical facility is USNS Comfort, the Navy’s hospital ship. But Friedrichs cautioned that the Comfort is also not designed to care for highly infectious disease patients — its close quarters and enclosed spaces are the opposite of public health recommendations for preventing the spread of the virus.

And any personnel that active duty forces or the National Guard might be able to lend to the crisis would be pulled away from helping in their own communities, said top Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman.

“Even if we are able to build tents for hospitals, we need the nurses, we need the doctors, we need the orderlies,” Hoffman said. “Those individuals in our system would come from existing hospitals or the Reserve.”

------------------------------

The Demand for Inpatient and ICU Beds for COVID-19 in the US: Lessons From Chinese Cities
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42599304/Inpatient%20ICU%20beds%20needs%20for%20COVID-19%20medRxiv.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

[Archimid]

After much debate and doubt but before a general stay was issued, I decided to go out with a surgical mask on. I could see the fear on people's faces when they see me and my family walk in with the mask on. But I also see store clerks donning latex gloves, immediately squirt some hand sanitizer on or perhaps start cleaning surfaces. They were just as nice as ever.  The people are ready to fight this with the tools we give them. 

Masks are the principal tool to fight an airborne respiratory threat.

And the guys must shave. Take that surface area off.

[edmountain]

Edmountain,

Correction. I just saw the most recent log plot of the confirmed count in the US. It shows a 1.35-1.37x/day increase rate for the last several weeks. I had thought with the beginning of public actions that that might have dropped to 1.25x/day. It hasn’t.  At least it hasn’t yet. Beginning now it should. But now won’t show up in the data for 11 days.

Correcting for that, I suspect that we now have 135,000-150,000 people infected in the US. That should show up as confirmed numbers 11 days from now, by which time the count of infected (not the confirmed count, but the actually infected count) will be about 800,000 to 1 million. - give or takes a lot due to uncertainties. 7 days later that should be counted as 160-200 thousand hospital admissions for critical care, about April 3-4. That will likely then double over the next week - reaching perhaps 700,000 by tax day - April 15. Said differently - the US may have no available ICU beds then.

I really really want to be wrong with this swag estimate.

Sam

Sam, I have little doubt that you are correct and that there will be about 140K confirmed cases in the US in 11 days.

In addition to this, there is (in my opinion) a large number of undocumented cases in the US as suggested by multiple lines of evidence. The Science study I linked to is an example of some of the more rigorous evidence as to the magnitude of this effect; the anecdotal stories that vox posted of people being turned away from testing suggests how this has been allowed to happen.

Bottom line is, the US has botched the testing so badly that it's hard to believe they've captured anything other than a small minority of the cases. The possible pool of undocumented cases does have significant public health implications. However, at the end of the day, I don't really care too much about the denominator; that's for epidemiologists. As a clinician, I care much more about the numerator. And the numerator is, as you point out, frightening.

Edit: numerator and denominator being ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed cases.

[wili]

I need math help here.

The rate of increase of deaths has gone from 1% on Feb. 26th to 10-12% in the last couple days.

How long can the rate of increase itself increase?

How does one extrapolate to project (not predict) what a similar continued rise in the rate of increase would mean for the total death numbers in...a week...a fortnight...a month...?

What is the mathematical term for this kind of constant increase in the rate of acceleration?

Total Deaths of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Date    Total
Deaths    Change
in Total    Change in
Total (%)
Mar. 16
   7,160    641    10%
Mar. 15
   6,519    686    12%
Mar. 14
   5,833    404    7%
Mar. 13
   5,429    448    9%
Mar. 12
   4,981    353    8%
Mar. 11
   4,628    332    8%
Mar. 10
   4,296    271    7%
Mar. 9
   4,025    198    5%
Mar. 8
   3,827    228    6%
Mar. 7
   3,599    105    3%
Mar. 6
   3,494    107    3%
Mar. 5
   3,387    102    3%
Mar. 4
   3,285    83    3%
Mar. 3
   3,202    85    3%
Mar. 2
   3,117    67    2%
Mar. 1
   3,050    73    2%
Feb. 29
   2,977    54    2%
Feb. 28
   2,923    65    2%
Feb. 27
   2,858    58    2%
Feb. 26
   2,800    37    1%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

bc wrote: "cases doubled outside China from below 50,000 to over 100,000 in the last 5 days"

Yeah, it's been doubling every 4-5 days (closer to 4 actually) for a while now. At least that rate of exponential growth does not itself seem to be growing. But then these numbers are constrained by numbers of test kits available, so...

[Tor Bejnar]

How to get a face mask?
Do an internet search:  how to make a surgical face mask

There are several Youtube videos.

Basically, you want a couple layers of cloth with a spacer over your nose and mouth.  One layer keeps your droplets close to your face and the other layer is to keep others' droplets away from you.  The spacer (perhaps batting for a quilt) is to keep the two layers apart.  Thoroughly wash and dry the mask every day, at least.  A coworker made a mask for my wife this weekend.

This isn't an N95 mask, but the one my coworker made fits on my face better than the N95 masks I've used for dusty woodworking projects (less leakage around the edge).

[Rodius]

I need math help here.

The rate of increase of deaths has gone from 1% on Feb. 26th to 10-12% in the last couple days.

How long can the rate of increase itself increase?

I think the increase death toll as a percentage is a reflection of how many uncounted cases there are.
It isnt the death rate is worsening, it is likely the same, but the number of deaths compared to counted cases when not much counting is happening will increase the percentage.

Well, that makes sense in my head anyway

[wili]

Rodius wrote:

I think the increase death toll as a percentage is a reflection of how many uncounted cases there are.
It isnt the death rate is worsening, it is likely the same, but the number of deaths compared to counted cases when not much counting is happening will increase the percentage.

Well, that makes sense in my head anyway

Interesting. I hadn't thought of that.

But I think these are raw numbers, not ratios

[blumenkraft]

50-75% of COVID-19 cases are completely asymptomatic but contagious

(a whole city got tested in Italy, ~3k population)

Link >> https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/

[blumenkraft]

Plague Inc is getting awfully realistic

Madagascar closes ports

Link >> https://www.thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2020/03/15/african-countries-tighten-borders-as-coronavirus-continues-creep/

[nanning]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/mar/16/drone-footage-shows-empty-roads-in-italy-amid-coronavirus-lockdown-video

Drone footage shows empty roads in Italy amid coronavirus lockdown [16 mar]
(video 1m12)

[pietkuip]

One latest snap shot from https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

The number of dead in Italy will soon be the highest curve.

[TerryM]

Bad news for the youngsters!
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/not-just-seniors-french-doctors-report-50-icu-patients-under-60-years-old-netherlands-under
I'd mentioned these findings above but just relocated the article.
Terry


edit
nanning, your post reminds me of those from China just weeks ago. How many weeks before our regions are just as devoid of traffic?

[pietkuip]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

What changed was new data on the impact of Italy’s out-of-control epidemic on its health service. Basically, it is catastrophic, with 30% of hospitalised patients having to be admitted to intensive care. The teams of modellers at Imperial College and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who advise government crunched those numbers – and the death toll and pressure on the NHS that came out were unacceptable.

Prof Neil Ferguson at Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and colleagues found that the mitigation strategy, as they called it – or scenario 1 – that the government had just announced would lead to 260,000 deaths. That would be not just deaths from the virus, but from other illnesses that the NHS would be too hard-pressed to treat.

Swedish government will have a press conference now. With education ministers. School closings?

Yes, high schools and universities close their premises. Distance teaching.

[be cause]

Boris Johnston .. British Prime Murderer has had his planned mass cull uncovered. Probably too late to make any difference other than the rate of deaths being slightly reduced but not the scale . .. b.c.

[Andre Koelewijn]

One latest snap shot from https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

The number of dead in Italy will soon be the highest curve.

Great Britain showing one of the steepest curves.
In an earlier post on this thread, with a table showing measures taken in various countries, they were called 'the control group'. Soon to overtake Italy, despite the roughly comparable size of the population?

[Hefaistos]

Rodius wrote:

I think the increase death toll as a percentage is a reflection of how many uncounted cases there are.
It isnt the death rate is worsening, it is likely the same, but the number of deaths compared to counted cases when not much counting is happening will increase the percentage.

Well, that makes sense in my head anyway

Interesting. I hadn't thought of that.

But I think these are raw numbers, not ratios

If I understand this correctly, epidemics in general follow a Gompertz curve.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function

There is an inflection point that is of importance, where increasing exp. growth is taken over by the second exp. function that defines the Gompertz, which has a decreasing exp. growth.
It seems that the US hasn't reached the inflection point yet. To little testing to tell. And the latest data show no inflection point reached:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Compare the time line with S korea, which is the case of a well managed situation. 60 days until maximum and inflection point:

https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/2019-ncov-korea-cases.png

Another helpful model is the SIR model

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIR_model

[blumenkraft]

Oh no, what do we do now?? 

National Day of Prayer Fails to Stop Coronavirus

Link >> https://www.richardcahill.net/home/national-day-of-prayer-fails-to-stop-coronavirus

[pietkuip]

Oh no, what do we do now?? 

National Day of Prayer Fails to Stop Coronavirus

Link >> https://www.richardcahill.net/home/national-day-of-prayer-fails-to-stop-coronavirus

Sacrifice the firstborn sons?

Or should one try the LBQT first, see if that would do it?

[Freegrass]

Fire, locust, disease...
What were those other biblical plagues again?

[Andre Koelewijn]

Fire, locust, disease...
What were those other biblical plagues again?

That was in the book of Exodus. Check the book of Revelation about what is to come

[be cause]

 .. ^^^ maybe a few floods here 'n' there ?  b.c.