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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 196517 times)

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3150 on: March 19, 2020, 03:08:31 PM »
Sam, this analysis seems to be logical and therefore extremely worrying in the short term.

I’d be really interested in what you think about the current situation in China. It  seems to be returning to some form of normality without any significant degree of herd immunity based on a relatively low number of reported infections in a total population of 1.3 Billion.

Is it simply rigorous contract tracking, Singapore style, on a grand scale or something more opaque?

My information on what is happening inside China is quite limited.

The Chinese have nearly mopped up the last of the infection chains inside the country. They continue to exercise intense internal controls with checkpoints, isolated and compartmentalized cities, blocks within cities, apartment buildings ...  They continue to use extensive testing. And those who were infected continue to be treated, monitored, isolated and controlled until they are assuredly clear of infection.

They have sanitized everything in areas with infections. Now, their focus is two fold. First is finishing that first phase of stopping the infection at home in China. More important now is stopping any infection from entering the country. That includes mandatory quarantine and testing, and obviously treatment, isolation .... for those who show symptoms or who test positive.

The Chinese are now working to restart the economy and to do so as quickly as possible. That seems to be coming with great stresses and pains. The restart isn't going as quickly as desired, so leadership have mandated things to make it happen. Some of these are apparently unreasonable or impossible, and so at lower levels they have resorted to ways to fake it. Folks above are trying to detect and counter that. Etc...


China is today an authoritarian dictatorship. Mostly that seems to be more like a benevolent though oppressive kingdom from western history. Is that right? I cannot judge or assess. I cannot even affirm that all of this is true. I am sure it is a very incomplete picture. I am sure my own cultural and personal biases color my perceptions in ways I cannot even know. That makes me even less certain..........

I encourage any one of you who may have a better perspective on that to chime in. I am quite interested to hear your thoughts and speculations.........

Sam

Sam, thanks for your thoughtful and thorough response.  I think describing your knowledge of China as “somewhat limited” is unjustified.

I’m sure that their autocratic but thorough approach, coupled with a population that has learned to accept the strictures of living in such a controlled environment is their secret to success, at least to date.

What is equally clear is that those who point to China as a role model for the West are wrong. There’s no way a similar approach would be either feasible or tolerated in Europe or North America - no Spring Break students flouting the rules and frolicking on the beaches of the South China Sea right now!

I’m better acquainted with Singapore, having family there, and I suspect it represents the  “westernised” country with the most aggressive and well resourced attempt to emulate the Chinese approach. Until recently they’ve been really successful but things have started to get away from them in recent days, driven mostly by imported cases. It’s too late though in the rest of the world to take solace in or to attempt to repeat the Chinese success.

I don’t buy into any conspiracy theories but I think we can be sure that when the world finally enters the post-Covid 19 era the Chinese will be best placed to benefit as economies get back on their feet.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3151 on: March 19, 2020, 03:10:52 PM »
The exact opposite will happen.

Boy I wish I had the confidence to know "exactly" what is going to happen.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3152 on: March 19, 2020, 03:15:19 PM »
Quote
There’s no way a similar approach would be either feasible or tolerated in Europe or North Americ

Yes, there is. In fact, there is a 100% guaranteed way that they will not only comply but that the west will BEG for a quarantine. All they have to do is see. If we let it run, they will see what this does to family members, friends and even themselves. At that time they will beg for quarantine. Of course, at that time the quarantine may be too late. And that time is only a few weeks away. for most, less for some.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3153 on: March 19, 2020, 03:17:24 PM »
The exact opposite will happen.

Boy I wish I had the confidence to know "exactly" what is going to happen.

I don't know what will happen, but I believe its the exact opposite Sigmetnow describes. Economics will recuperate, life will never be the same.
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silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3154 on: March 19, 2020, 03:22:34 PM »
Quote
There’s no way a similar approach would be either feasible or tolerated in Europe or North Americ

Yes, there is. In fact, there is a 100% guaranteed way that they will not only comply but that the west will BEG for a quarantine. All they have to do is see. If we let it run, they will see what this does to family members, friends and even themselves. At that time they will beg for quarantine. Of course, at that time the quarantine may be too late. And that time is only a few weeks away. for most, less for some.

Archimid, it’s already too late......


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3155 on: March 19, 2020, 03:29:40 PM »
Quote
Archimid, it’s already too late......

Nope, this can and will get orders of magnitude worse but only if governments choose paralysis and keep lying to the people about mask use.

Saying it is too late is a lie told by the forces that want to be fooled about stopping this virus. Surely, there is a point when it is too late, but we are not there yet. This virus overwhelms hospitals much sooner than the whole population is infected. In most cities hospitals are not yet overwhelmed. Most people are not infected.
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3156 on: March 19, 2020, 03:33:22 PM »
From Private Eye:

Quote
The hand-washing campaign has been a roaring success. Early figures suggest it may have delayed the surge of Covid-19, and is likely to have reduced the incidence of seasonal influenza, food poisoning, hepatitis A, threadworm and pubic hair in Caesar salad.

Alas, 40% of the world's population do not have access to the miracle of soap and water in their homes, and that's where the virus will eventually hit hardest. They're used to death. More than 4,000 people a day die from TB and 1,200 from malaria. But because it doesn't crash the economy, hit pension funds or disrupt holiday cruises, it gets virtually no publicity.

For the UK public at large, the risk of a coronavirus death remains low. The predicted range is that out of every 100 random Brits, 99 won't die from Cov-19 this year (worst scenario) to out of every 1,000 people, 999 won't die from Cov-19 (best scenario).

All eyes will now switch to the overall death figures. The Office for National Statistics provides a weekly tally for those with a strong stomach. The week ending 10 January was the worst of the year so far, with 14,058 deaths. But it's fallen every week since to 10,816 in the week ended 28 February. Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years.

I like to think it's the handwashing.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3157 on: March 19, 2020, 03:43:05 PM »
Quote
Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years.

Is this for the UK? And is it true?

Reminds me a bit of the fact that suicides go down drastically during wartime.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3158 on: March 19, 2020, 03:56:14 PM »
We should fully expect for all kinds of communicable diseases to be significantly down with all the handwashing. Too bad that Covid 19 is a respiratory bug that spreads through the air. Hand washing is still effective but we are ignoring the main path of infection. The air.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3159 on: March 19, 2020, 04:11:40 PM »
we are ignoring the main path of infection. The air.

Can you point me to a source that supports this claim? That the air is the main path of infection?
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3160 on: March 19, 2020, 04:23:43 PM »
Quote
Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years.

Is this for the UK? And is it true?

Reminds me a bit of the fact that suicides go down drastically during wartime.
Yes, UK figures. And Private Eye is very good at fact-checking. They've been sued so many times that they're usually very careful to get things right :)
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3161 on: March 19, 2020, 04:34:34 PM »
First point:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

Quote
SARS-CoV-2 remained viable in aerosols throughout the duration of our experiment (3 hours), with a reduction in infectious titer from 103.5 to 102.7 TCID50 per liter of air. This reduction was similar to that observed with SARS-CoV-1, from 104.3 to 103.5 TCID50 per milliliter


For three hours this virus can remain viable in the air if the physics of the room allow it.
Three hours was the limit of the experiment so it could be longer.


The second point, the air is the path of transmission for every nCoV infection unless the patient licks a surface. The virus is excreted in macro and microscopic particles every time a patient exhales, laughs or coughs.  From there it can land on surfaces to be picked up. That's when handwashing can help. But it can never fall to the ground before being breathed by another human.

« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 07:28:03 PM by Archimid »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3162 on: March 19, 2020, 04:37:19 PM »
A ~70 year old friend in Ecuador says he is recovering from what he presumes is Covid-19, but won't get tested and suffer getting put into the medical system.  (His fever broke Sunday night).  His city is in total lock down since Sunday.  He says there are no flights in or out of the country and borders and ports are closed. The only excuse to be on the streets is to get food or medicine, do banking or going to a doctor's appointment, and the police will escort folks home without a good excuse (beats putting them in jail!). Restaurants, bars, churches, stores, parks, and non-essential gov't services are all closed, and there's a 9PM to 5AM curfew, to boot.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3163 on: March 19, 2020, 05:07:57 PM »
I never questioned the air is one path. But you stated it's the main path.

So where does it say that the air is the main path of infection? I can't see it, Archimid?
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3164 on: March 19, 2020, 05:08:52 PM »
Some Severe Cases of Coronavirus Could Result in Brain Damage, Inability to Walk
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-what-acute-respiratory-distress-syndrome-ards/5066412002/

Acute respiratory distress syndrome, also known as ARDS, is a common killer among critically ill patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

But even if they survive, it’s a long road to recovery.

Patients develop ARDS in the late stages of the infection when the virus has caused significant damage to the lungs. In the process of trying to fight off the virus, the body sends immune cells to the lungs causing an inflammatory reaction.

At that point, critical patients are put on a ventilator to help the circulation of oxygen, but in some cases it’s not enough for the body to function and the patient dies.

In other cases, even if patients are taken off the ventilator, there’s still a 30% chance that they’ll die in 30 days, according to a comprehensive study on ARDS called the Lung Safe study.

https://www.esicm.org/research/trials/trials-group-2/lung-safe/

Dr. Nuala Meyer, associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, says preliminary reports from China and South Korea indicate that COVID-19 patients who develop ARDS are taken off the ventilator after 10 to 14 days.

“Patients tend to lose peripheral muscle mass and muscle function,” she said. At five years after hospital discharge, ARDS survivors fall significantly short compared to peers in their ability to walk and how far.

They also have trouble swallowing and speaking because of trauma caused by the breathing tube that intrude on the vocal cords.

A 2016 study published in Intensive Care Medicine found patients sustained cognitive impairment up to five years after leaving the hospital. Cognitive impairment for survivors ranged from 70% to 100% after hospital discharge, 80% one year after and up to 20% five years after.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27025938

Along with cognitive impairment, the study also found patients and their caregivers were more likely to experience psychiatric disorders such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Experts say that many patients hospitalized for severe and critical COVID-19 develop ARDS. In a JAMA study published last week, 84 patients out of 201 developed ARDS and out of those 84 patients, 44 died.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2763184

Researchers in the study concluded that older age was associated with a greater risk of developing ARDS and dying. They also found that patients with ARDS were able to recover when they had a higher fever, a sign the body is fighting off the infection.

Critically ill patients can develop ARDS quicker than one might think.  According to a January study published in peer-reviewed Lancet Journals, ARDS developed in 17-29% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients and the median time from symptoms onset to ARDS was eight days.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
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edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3165 on: March 19, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
First point:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

Quote
SARS-CoV-2 remained viable in aerosols throughout the duration of our experiment (3 hours), with a reduction in infectious titer from 103.5 to 102.7 TCID50 per liter of air. This reduction was similar to that observed with SARS-CoV-1, from 104.3 to 103.5 TCID50 per milliliter


For three hours this virus can remain viable in the air if the physics of the room allow it.
Three hours was the limit of the experiment so it could be longer.


The second point, the air is the path of transmission for every nCoV infection unless the patient licks a surface. The virus is excreted in macro and microscopic particles every time a patient exhales, laughs or coughs.  From there it can land on surfaces to be picked up. That's when handwashing can help. But it can never fall to the ground before being breathed by another human.
Archimid, your copy and paste from the NEJM has an important formatting issue: you lost the powers of 10. The titers went from 103.5 to 102.7 (in linear terms from 3162 to 501) per milliliter of medium.

That said, the findings do indicate that airborne spread is plausible. However, you need to consider how the particles get aerosolized in the first place. It does not appear to happen everytime the patient "exhales, laughs or coughs." Rather,  aerosolization is far more likely to occur in hospital settings during certain procedures such as endotracheal intubation. That is why members of the general public need to stop hoarding N95 masks and allow the healthcare workers who need them to get them.

pearscot

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3166 on: March 19, 2020, 05:48:16 PM »
I like in the second worst cluster in the U.S. and everything is just very surreal. To put it into prospective, this state (Washington) has more cases than all of Japan. Sadly, I work for the government and am forced to work and be around people all day long. I find it even more offensive that one woman in our office is in her 70s while another is pregnant - it's just not worth the risk to have them here, but my boss is elected and said everyone must be here or be fired for work abandonment. At this point, I suppose I'm still thankful to have a job, but each day the actual gravity of the situation just becomes more and more real.


I really wish I could and I really wish I even had access to a mask, but zero are available where I live now. I'm just stuck in such a shitty position because I'm fortunate enough to still have a job right now, but sadly my boss does not take this serious nor does she believe it's actually true (never work for an elected republican). 

I just wonder how bad things are going to get in the U.S., but these are purely self inflicted wounds as trump decided that the pandemic response team was simply not worth it. Each and every death in this country is blood on his hands and I hope more people continue to believe that. I'm just seething with anger and feel so helpless. At this point, given that there are 16 cases on this island I probably already have it.

I have been extremely forward and upfront with my parents about their risks (dad is 70, mom is 65). My dad's lungs are in poor health so I REALLY worry about him. That said, they are smart and have been extremely safe and self isolating except to get exercise alone. Hard to believe all of this is actually happening, but then when I see every closed store, I'm brought right back to reality.

The *one* nice thing is how there are zero contrails in the sky today, so hopefully earth can get a slight reprieve.

My sympathy to you pearscot. A very bad situation, about to get worse unfortunately.
I hope you are young and healthy and will go through this unscathed. If you are at high health risk, maybe consider ditching the job (I know that's a very hard choice).
I think your boss is missing the risk to herself, though she may not give a f**ka about others. I imagine she is probably older than you. Stupidity might not be a good characteristic these days.
Make sure your parents self-isolate for the longest time possible.

Thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. To be 100% honest, I feel like I already have it. My chest has felt a little tight and considering how many cases there are here I have no way of knowing. Overall, I'm just very scared. I also just got out of a required office meeting and we were all forced to sit close to eachother. I really wish the powers at be took this serious.

I just don't know what to expect or what happens from here in the U.S. Just so many unknowns.
pls!

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3167 on: March 19, 2020, 06:08:23 PM »
US Trajectory: Will We Follow Italy?
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/world/2020/03/19/coronavirus-curve-us-may-its-most-dangerous-point/2863553001/

... A data analysis by USA TODAY finds that America’s trajectory is trending toward Italy’s, where circumstances are very dire.

"When you're on an exponential curve every moment is dangerous," Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, told USA TODAY.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's worst-case-scenario is that up to 210 million Americans will be infected by December. Under this forecast, 21 million people would need hospitalization and 200,000 to 1.7 million could die. Collins said that if the U.S. takes drastic measures "we should certainly be able to blunt" the U.S. curve. "But let's be clear: There's going to be a very rough road."

--------------------------

Coronavirus Could Kill Millions in the US: ‘Do the Math,’ CDC Advisor Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/the-coronavirus-could-kill-millions-of-americans-cdc-advisor-says.html

The new coronavirus could kill millions across the U.S., said Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine.

“It would not surprise me,” she told CNBC when asked whether the U.S. could see millions of deaths. “We need to prepare for the worst.”

Neuzil sits on the Centers for Disease Control’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and is part of the leadership team of infectious disease experts working with NIH to test a coronavirus vaccine and therapies to treat those sick with COVID-19.

“We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math,” she said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there.”

--------------------------

Congressman: 'Worst Cold I've Ever Had'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla.(age 58), announced that he has tested positive, becoming the first known member of Congress to contract the rapidly spreading virus. Hours later, Rep. Ben McAdams, a Democrat from Utah, announced he had tested positive.

“I'm feeling pretty bad. I think this is probably the worst cold I've ever had, but (I am) getting by," McAdams told NBC News’ TODAY from quarantine

-----------------------------

NYC Mayor Mobilizing Medical Reserve Corps
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-live-updates.html

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio urged retired health care workers to join the city's battle against COVID-19, saying the 9,000-member Medical Reserve Corps would be mobilized immediately on a voluntary basis. The group includes mostly retired health care workers, but de Blasio said anyone with health care training would be welcome to volunteer.

"If you are a health care worker, you have any appropriate training, we need you and we need you right away," de Blasio said in a recording published Thursday on social media. "Your city needs you now."

------------------------------

New York Gov. Cuomo Orders 75% of Non-Essential Workforce to Stay Home as Cases Surge to 4,152
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-live-updates.html

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered 75% of the workforce in non-essential services to stay at home, approved mortgage relief and took other measures.

Essential services include businesses dealing with food, pharmacies, healthcare, shipping, and supplies.

Cuomo said the state confirmed 1,769 new cases in the last day, bringing the number of confirmed cases in New York to 4,152 and pushing the total number of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. well over 10,000, based on the state’s new case count and data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

------------------------------

Ex-Trump Advisor Gary Cohn Warns the US Will Have ‘Massive Unemployment Very, Very Quickly’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-live-updates.html

... Cohn’s comments came shortly after the Labor Department said jobless claims rose to 281,000 last week, an increase of 70,000 from the week prior.

The former Goldman Sachs president is not alone in forecasting a continued jump in unemployment. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson earlier told CNBC he thought next Thursday’s jobless claims could soar to around two million.
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3168 on: March 19, 2020, 06:13:30 PM »
If it becomes endemic, it will become a big risk for many people to go drink a pint of beer in the pub. Or to take an airplane, or to go on restaurant........

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3169 on: March 19, 2020, 06:14:27 PM »
Quote
That said, the findings do indicate that airborne spread is plausible

If you can't rule out the airborne transmission, you must assume airborne transmission. And not only can it not be ruled out, but it has also been confirmed several times. I believe it has been posted in this thread several times.


Quote
However, you need to consider how the particles get aerosolized in the first place. It does not appear to happen every time the patient "exhales, laughs or coughs."

I have to imagine that the point of maximum aerosolization is at some point when viral load is very high but lung function is sufficient to expel air with enough force. That allows for the maximum chance of aerosolization or microdroplets of particles. There may be nasal or throat stages that make aerosolization more likely.

But aerosolization will happen continually even if in small amounts. Stand in a small closed room with a positive patient talking and there is a significant but small chance of breathing enough virus to catch it. If the patient laughs or sneezes the probability of infection increases. If you wear a mask the probability of infection decreases depending on the mask. If the patient wears a mask the probability also decreases. If both the patient and the visitor wear a mask, the probability of infection is minimized.
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3170 on: March 19, 2020, 06:26:55 PM »
nanning
Your last post caused me to question some of my assumptions about your situation.


While minimal, is your income at least sustainable if circumstances should require you to remain totally unproductive for months on end?


Is your income such that you will have no difficulty purchasing whatever you need without requiring communal meals or crowded waiting lines?


If you should become bedridden, are caregivers available for you without resorting to hospitalization? Do you have friends available that can pick-up & deliver needed items, do the laundry, cook meals etc?


Is your income dependent on you showing up to receive it, or is it readily available by mail or online?


It's not too late to be thinking about the strength of your personal safety net and how any of the gaping holes might be patched over.
An exciting experiment in deliberately doing without could quickly become dangerous if a debilitating illness were to intervene.


I'm sure that healthcare and medicines are available to you at no personal cost, but being told to stay home can entail some expenses and some levels of care that may not have been considered. Another friend's only contact has been via a computer at his local library. Not an ideal situation under these circumstances.


Stay Healthy - Plan for the Worst - Stay in Touch
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Terry

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3171 on: March 19, 2020, 06:35:30 PM »
[0% chance of anything close
    Monitor graph at bottom of CDC website. New “confirmed” cases, not oft-reported “presumptive positive” is trending to level off over next few weeks & be negligible by end of April. Same pattern as China. [/size]
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240483296347181057
Expecting the outcome of China while ignoring the steps taken in China to achieve that outcome is extremely stupid. Does he support wide lockdown, mass quarantine, severe social distancing? If not, what does he expect to happen? He is bullshitting, I've seen enough posts in the same vein to recognize the bullshit. Will he take it back when in a few weeks the outcome is different than what he expects now? Alternatively, will he ignore the fact that the outcome will have been achieved after some economic measures that he opposed (I guess) were put in place?
By the way the graph mentioned is cases by date of onset, not by date of diagnosis. As the US only tests those with severe symptoms, it does not find cases where infection occurred today or yesterday. This graph is doomed to provide very delayed and skewed information, and suggesting to base future expectations and public policy on it is crazy when during an exponential epidemic.
In an exponential situation you have to look ahead into the future as much as possible by extrapolation and modeling, rather than use week or two-week old data. It's like those in Italy that said "what's the problem, we have 2 dead people so what?"

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3172 on: March 19, 2020, 06:43:06 PM »
If it becomes endemic, it will become a big risk for many people to go drink a pint of beer in the pub. Or to take an airplane, or to go on restaurant........

If by endemic, you mean the period post-epidemic, when the virus may be smoldering along in the population, I wouldn't be terribly pessimistic.

I'd expect the long-term picture to resemble that of chickenpox (varicella) in the time before the vaccine.  It, too, is a highly contagious virus that affects children only mildly, but can have substantial lethality when an adult is infected for the first time.

I think it more than likely that individuals who have recovered will have durable, robust immunity.  I don't believe that the reports of re-infection are true re-infections.  It would be far more likely that these are relapses, from a late failure of immune function, perhaps from withdrawal of anti-virals.

So, we could face a long-term situation analogous to chickenpox in earlier times.  That is, essentially every child gets it early, has only mild symptoms, becomes immune, and isn't troubled by it in adulthood.  Though, varicella does relapse, where it takes the form of shngles (zoster).  I wouldn't expect Covid to behave this way at all.

For adults not infected in the next 18 months, a vaccine will likely be available then.  We just need  to stay alive until then.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3173 on: March 19, 2020, 07:02:58 PM »
I think it more than likely that individuals who have recovered will have durable, robust immunity.

Likely correct!

OK, very very good news coming from a new study conducted in China on apes.

They suggest with high confidence that you become immune after catching the virus. If true, this could be over rather soonish (not the two years time frame mentioned upthread).

Heard this on the NDR Coronavirus podcast with Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten.
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colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3174 on: March 19, 2020, 07:26:23 PM »
Oh God, Italy now reporting over 5000 new cases today.

5322/427. and only a bit over 400 recoveries. Yesterday recovery/death ratio was over 2/1 today it's less than 1/1. Number of people in critical condition also went up over 200.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3175 on: March 19, 2020, 07:34:27 PM »
Africa Sees 'Extremely Rapid Evolution' of Pandemic, UN Says
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/uk-schools-close-italy-covid-19-deaths-jump-live-updates-200318235116951.html

More African countries closed their borders on Thursday as the coronavirus's local spread threatened to turn the continent of 1.3 billion people into an alarming new front for the pandemic.

"About 10 days ago we had about five countries" with the virus, WHO's Africa chief Dr Matshidiso Moeti told reporters. Now 34 of Africa's 54 countries have cases, with the total close to 650. It is an "extremely rapid evolution", she said.

---------------------------------

Trump Isn’t Actually Using Defense Production Act He Just Invoked
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/prognosis-latest-news-coronavirus-national-security/163666

06:12 PM: Shortly after invoking the Defense Production Act — which grants the president broad authorities to spur the private sector to boost production of medical supplies — President Trump tweeted that he “only signed [it]… should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future.”

“Hopefully there will be no need, but we are all in this TOGETHER!” The executive order delegates the authority to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to “determine the proper nationwide priorities and allocation of all health and medical resources, including controlling the distribution of such materials in the civilian market.”

---------------------------------

Navy Hospital Ship Still Weeks Away From Arriving In New York City To Help Battle COVID-19
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32636/navy-hospital-ship-still-weeks-away-from-arriving-in-new-york-city-to-help-battle-covid-19

The U.S. Navy is planning to deploy the USNS Comfort, one of its two hospital ships, to New York City to help support response efforts related to the rapidly expanding COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic. Unfortunately, despite promises to send the ship "immediately," that vessel isn't set to arrive in New York Harbor for weeks, by which time the situation on the ground there may have significantly worsened already.

Military Sealift Command, which oversees both ships, had stated categorically to The War Zone that it had received no formal instructions to get either of the Navy's two hospital ships ready for operations as of Mar. 17.

The Navy Office of Information, the service's top public affairs office, has confirmed to The War Zone that Comfort is presently undergoing maintenance at its homeport of Norfolk, Virginia, meaning it is not available for immediate deployment. Some reports have indicated that the ship won't be pier-side in New York until sometime in the middle of April.

... Trump told reporters at the White House. "They can be launched in the next week or so, depending on need."

Later on Mar. 18, Secretary of Defense Esper told CNN that Mercy would deploy by the end of the month.

"The big challenge isn’t the availability of these inventories, it’s the medical professionals. All of those doctors and nurses either come from our medical treatment facilities or they come from the reserves, which means civilians," Esper had told reporters yesterday. "What I don’t want to do is take reservists from a hospital where they are needed just to put them on a ship to take them somewhere else where they’re needed."



... The entire U.S. federal government, including the U.S. military, is steadily increasing its response to the COVID-19 crisis. Unfortunately, there continue to be reports that many of these efforts, including the release of basic, but vital supplies, such as protective masks from national stockpiles, are proceeding at worryingly slow paces.

-----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3176 on: March 19, 2020, 07:36:53 PM »
US fatalities doubling every 3 days

Mar 19   154
Mar 22   308
Mar 25   616
Mar 28   1232
Mar 31   2462

I believe that much is inevitable
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3177 on: March 19, 2020, 07:38:06 PM »
'A Generation Has Died': Italian Province Struggles to Bury Its Coronavirus Dead
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/generation-has-died-italian-province-struggles-bury-coronavirus-dead

Coffins pile up and corpses are sealed off in homes as Bergamo’s funeral firms are overwhelmed

... The death toll across the province is unclear, but CFB, the area’s largest funeral director, has carried out almost 600 burials or cremations since 1 March.

“In a normal month we would do about 120,” ...

... There are about 80 funeral companies across Bergamo, each receiving dozens of calls an hour. A shortage of coffins as providers struggle to keep up with demand and funeral workers becoming infected with the virus are also hampering preparations.

https://www.ilmessaggero.it/italia/coronavirus_bergamo_bare_chiesa_video-5112930.html

-------------------------------

Italy Overtakes China's Death Toll
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/uk-schools-close-italy-covid-19-deaths-jump-live-updates-200318235116951.html

Italy's death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus rose in the last 24 hours by 427 to 3,405, overtaking the total number of deaths so far registered in China, officials said.

The total number of cases in Italy rose to 41,035 from a previous 35,713, up 14.9 percent, a faster rate of growth than seen over the last three days, the Civil Protection Agency said.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 07:43:46 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3178 on: March 19, 2020, 07:41:58 PM »
US fatalities doubling every 3 days

Mar 19   154
Mar 22   308
Mar 25   616
Mar 28   1232
Mar 31   2462

I believe that much is inevitable
Do you remember America first? Almost there.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3179 on: March 19, 2020, 07:52:47 PM »
Last I looked, the rate of doubling itself keeps accelerating, so it may go even faster than that. Of course, that all depends on whether all the causes of deaths are accurately reported
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3180 on: March 19, 2020, 07:57:38 PM »
Coronavirus: People Will Die because this Government Wasted Time | Professor John Ashton

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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3181 on: March 19, 2020, 07:58:30 PM »
If it becomes endemic, it will become a big risk for many people to go drink a pint of beer in the pub. Or to take an airplane, or to go on restaurant........

If by endemic, you mean the period post-epidemic, when the virus may be smoldering along in the population, I wouldn't be terribly pessimistic.

I'd expect the long-term picture to resemble that of chickenpox (varicella) in the time before the vaccine.  It, too, is a highly contagious virus that affects children only mildly, but can have substantial lethality when an adult is infected for the first time.

I think it more than likely that individuals who have recovered will have durable, robust immunity.  I don't believe that the reports of re-infection are true re-infections.  It would be far more likely that these are relapses, from a late failure of immune function, perhaps from withdrawal of anti-virals.

So, we could face a long-term situation analogous to chickenpox in earlier times.  That is, essentially every child gets it early, has only mild symptoms, becomes immune, and isn't troubled by it in adulthood.  Though, varicella does relapse, where it takes the form of shngles (zoster).  I wouldn't expect Covid to behave this way at all.

For adults not infected in the next 18 months, a vaccine will likely be available then.  We just need  to stay alive until then.

You say robuust immunity. But don't it has to mutate to stay endemic ? Are you not only immune for the strain that makes you sick ?

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3182 on: March 19, 2020, 08:02:22 PM »
US fatalities doubling every 3 days

Mar 19   154
Mar 22   308
Mar 25   616
Mar 28   1232
Mar 31   2462

I believe that much is inevitable
Do you remember America first? Almost there.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3183 on: March 19, 2020, 08:25:31 PM »
Quote
Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years.

Is this for the UK? And is it true?

Reminds me a bit of the fact that suicides go down drastically during wartime.

138 deaths in the UK so far is far too small to expect this not to be true. (I haven't checked but why bother 138 is insignificant.)

... So far ........ Whether this remain true however is probably rather doubtful.

Not going out may well be safer certainly from traffic accidents and other infectious diseases. Whether that is enough to compensate, hmm who knows? ...  Unless people start getting really bored and start doing stupid things?

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3184 on: March 19, 2020, 08:36:39 PM »
Thats the thing about exponentials. Got to catch them while they are trivial, because they go from trivial to non-trivial very fast.

pearscot

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3185 on: March 19, 2020, 08:36:53 PM »
each moment it gets worse and worse...this is crazy shit

pls!

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3186 on: March 19, 2020, 08:38:08 PM »
Intelligence Chairman Raised Virus Alarms Weeks Ago, Secret Recording Shows
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818192535/burr-recording-sparks-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19

The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee warned a small group of well-connected constituents three weeks ago to prepare for dire economic and societal effects of the coronavirus, according to a secret recording obtained by NPR.

The remarks from U.S. Sen. Richard Burr were more stark than any he had delivered in more public forums.

On Feb. 27, when the United States had 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19, President Trump was tamping down fears and suggesting that the virus could be seasonal.

"It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle. It will disappear," the president said then, before adding, "it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We'll see what happens."

On that same day, Burr attended a luncheon held at a social club called the Capitol Hill Club. And he delivered a much more alarming message.

Quote
... "There's one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history," ... "It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic."*

... The luncheon had been organized by the Tar Heel Circle, a nonpartisan group whose membership consists of businesses and organizations in North Carolina, the state Burr represents. Membership to join the Tar Heel Circle costs between $500 and $10,000 and promises that members "enjoy interaction with top leaders and staff from Congress, the administration, and the private sector," according to the group's website.

In attendance, according to a copy of the RSVP list obtained by NPR, were dozens of invited guests representing companies and organizations from North Carolina. And according to federal records, those companies or their political committees donated more than $100,000 to Burr's election campaign in 2015 and 2016.

The message Burr delivered to the group was dire.


Thirteen days before the State Department began to warn against travel to Europe, and 15 days before the Trump administration banned European travelers, Burr warned those in the room to reconsider.

... And Burr invoked the possibility that the military might be mobilized to combat the coronavirus. Only now, three weeks later, is the public learning of that prospect.

"We're going to send a military hospital there; it's going to be in tents and going to be set up on the ground somewhere," Burr said at the luncheon. "It's going to be a decision the president and DOD make. And we're going to have medical professionals supplemented by local staff to treat the people that need treatment."

... But in his public comments about the threat of COVID-19, Burr never offered the kind of precise warning that he delivered to the small group of his constituents.

-------------------------

U.S. State Coronavirus Curves Show Many Could Be Close Behind New York
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5072663002

An analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, compiled by Johns Hopkins University, shows that many states, such as New Jersey, Colorado, Florida, and Louisiana are on a similar trajectory to New York already, with others following closely behind. These numbers are based on the latest number of confirmed people with COVID-19, which is likely far lower than the actual number of cases due to limited testing across the U.S.

The exponential nature of the growth of viruses like coronavirus means that the trajectory, or curve, of the number of people who have COVID-19 is even more important than the total number when trying to understand the potential risks of the outbreak. States that have few reports of people with the virus but are following the curve of places like New York and Washington, could soon find themselves in a similarly dire situation without strong preventative measures.

Graphics at link
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3187 on: March 19, 2020, 09:00:47 PM »
COVID-19 Clinical Trial Launches at University of Minnesota
https://med.umn.edu/news-events/covid-19-clinical-trial-launches-university-minnesota

A clinical trial to examine where hydroxychloroquine, a derivative of chloroquine, can prevent people catching coronavirus has been announced at the University of Minnesota.

Trial volunteers who have been exposed to someone with known Covid-19, but who are not ill, will be given the drug to test whether it can stop the illness developing or reduce its severity.

According to a laboratory test conducted by the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, chloroquine was found to be “highly effective” in controlling Covid-19 infection.

The World Health Organisation has also named chloroquine as one of the drugs it is prioritising under its global “Solidarity Trial” - an international study bringing together various nations’ efforts to test potential coronavirus treatments.

... recent research in France where a trial of chloroquine treatment on 20 Covid-19 patients in hospital saw 70% considered to be cured after six days.

Meanwhile, Reuters has reported that there is a shortage of generic malaria drug hydroxychloroquine amid surging demand, according to independent pharmacies and the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3188 on: March 19, 2020, 09:07:37 PM »
Please Sam, tell them not to spread these outrageous lies!

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

"Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk"

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3189 on: March 19, 2020, 09:26:44 PM »
Please Sam, tell them not to spread these outrageous lies!

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

"Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk"

Time will play out. The data will explain it to them.

Sam

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3190 on: March 19, 2020, 09:34:52 PM »
Here are the Luxembourger data.
Total population : 602000

pearscot

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3191 on: March 19, 2020, 09:44:21 PM »
Just got word that no matter what, the office will remain open. Unless someone dies in our office we will continue to work. Good to know where america's priories are.

I'm sitting at my desk like: guess I'll just die
pls!

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3192 on: March 19, 2020, 09:48:58 PM »
Just got word that no matter what, the office will remain open. Unless someone dies in our office we will continue to work. Good to know where america's priories are.

I'm sitting at my desk like: guess I'll just die

Can you take mental health days off? Do Americans even get mental health days?
I see that there have been 3584 new cases in America, so far today, with no report in from Washington..

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3193 on: March 19, 2020, 09:53:31 PM »
If you can't rule out the airborne transmission, you must assume airborne transmission. And not only can it not be ruled out, but it has also been confirmed several times. I believe it has been posted in this thread several times.
In an ideal world, perhaps. In the real world we have limited resources that constrain our response: a minimal supply of N95 masks, very few negative pressure rooms, etc. As such we are forced to deploy what resources we have in the most prudent fashion possible as guided by evidence. Reflexively putting every single patient on airborne precautions without assessing the evidence is simply not possible.

I have to imagine ...
You don't have to imagine at all! This has been (and is being) studied. Start with reviewing the current available evidence.

pearscot

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3194 on: March 19, 2020, 09:59:12 PM »
Just got word that no matter what, the office will remain open. Unless someone dies in our office we will continue to work. Good to know where america's priories are.

I'm sitting at my desk like: guess I'll just die

Can you take mental health days off? Do Americans even get mental health days?
I see that there have been 3584 new cases in America, so far today, with no report in from Washington..

Nope...immediate job freeze and any leaving is considered "job abandonment." I'll be thankful I have a job and will just wait and see how many deaths end up occurring here.
pls!

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3195 on: March 19, 2020, 10:35:05 PM »
my plan .. double scarf with some sprigs of ivy for separation to keep inner and outer layers apart . sprigs of lavender and rosemary also available . A virus has got a grip , but runny and snezy so not likely to be cv . b.c.

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

pearscot

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3196 on: March 19, 2020, 10:39:34 PM »
I feel bad for being so scared, but I no longer know how to feel. I've read up and listened to so many things at this point...

The only way I can aptly articulate how I feel is like waiting in silence for a massive invisible monster to arrive...
pls!

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3197 on: March 19, 2020, 10:44:22 PM »
Just got word that no matter what, the office will remain open. Unless someone dies in our office we will continue to work. Good to know where america's priories are.

I'm sitting at my desk like: guess I'll just die

Can you take mental health days off? Do Americans even get mental health days?
I see that there have been 3584 new cases in America, so far today, with no report in from Washington..

Nope...immediate job freeze and any leaving is considered "job abandonment." I'll be thankful I have a job and will just wait and see how many deaths end up occurring here.

I took some days free in order to be less often at work. Don't know anyway how long we will have to stay at home, but probably longer than in Wuhan, so it doesn't make sense to keep my holidays for an hypothetical future. In Luxembourg, we probably have more free days than in the US. I have 6 week holidays per year.

I'm working for the local administration. All projects are stopped, so we do mainly administrative work that should have been done a long time ago.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3198 on: March 19, 2020, 10:47:54 PM »
If it becomes endemic, it will become a big risk for many people to go drink a pint of beer in the pub. Or to take an airplane, or to go on restaurant........

If by endemic, you mean the period post-epidemic, when the virus may be smoldering along in the population, I wouldn't be terribly pessimistic.

I'd expect the long-term picture to resemble that of chickenpox (varicella) in the time before the vaccine.  It, too, is a highly contagious virus that affects children only mildly, but can have substantial lethality when an adult is infected for the first time.

I think it more than likely that individuals who have recovered will have durable, robust immunity.  I don't believe that the reports of re-infection are true re-infections.  It would be far more likely that these are relapses, from a late failure of immune function, perhaps from withdrawal of anti-virals.

So, we could face a long-term situation analogous to chickenpox in earlier times.  That is, essentially every child gets it early, has only mild symptoms, becomes immune, and isn't troubled by it in adulthood.  Though, varicella does relapse, where it takes the form of shngles (zoster).  I wouldn't expect Covid to behave this way at all.

For adults not infected in the next 18 months, a vaccine will likely be available then.  We just need  to stay alive until then.

You say robuust immunity. But don't it has to mutate to stay endemic ? Are you not only immune for the strain that makes you sick ?

We won't know for certain for a long time.  But every virus mutates at some rate, and we just don't see people getting chickenpox repeatedly, for example.  The vast majority of mutations have little effect on virulence, and less impact on immune response.  I would guess that SARS survivors have substantial immunity to this virus, though I've seen no data on that. 

If/when I become infected and then (hopefully) immune, I won't have any hesitation to help the afflicted.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3199 on: March 19, 2020, 10:50:55 PM »
I feel bad for being so scared, but I no longer know how to feel. I've read up and listened to so many things at this point...

The only way I can aptly articulate how I feel is like waiting in silence for a massive invisible monster to arrive...

The worst thing is that while we isolate ourselves, others organize private parties, and we know that if we hurt yourselves, we won't get help because the others will overload the health systems.