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Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 501781 times)

Freegrass

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3500 on: March 22, 2020, 02:23:10 PM »
Humans: How could we possibly cut our CO2 emissions?

Nature: Need training? Check out this virus i made.
Been thinking that myself as well. The planet is fighting its own virus, humans.
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3501 on: March 22, 2020, 02:38:15 PM »
Yep! And inside the human race, the most malicious members of society are behaving like cancer - especially in times like this!

The coronavirus relief bill could turn into a corporate coup if we aren't careful

Quote
America will be unrecognizable after this pandemic if big corporations walk away with trillions of dollars and no strings attached

Link >> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-relief-bill-corporate-coup

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3502 on: March 22, 2020, 02:38:48 PM »
Now heard of two cases of people I know who might have had this, both describe agonising muscle pain for a week with a fever of about 40°C for four to five days. Several other symptoms as well. Of course a bad influenza is another possible explanation. In both cases the whole family has been infected and the most responsible ones have done the chores they have been able to. If this is the regular version it doesn't sound too nice to cope with. I live alone and have frozen food for four days use so I might be ok if I don't get pneumonia. The two weeks of lower respitatory system sickness in late 90s were pretty though but it was bacterial so easy to manage with antibiotics...

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3503 on: March 22, 2020, 02:40:41 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries reporting a big drop in the number of new cases day over day in the US: 4,824->2,693.

Many of the worst hotspots in the U.S. have altered testing strategy due to a severe shortage of PPE. In NYC and LA, they are no longer testing patients coming into the hospital unless they deem that a test would result in a different treatment approach. Confirmed cases should drop significantly. Meanwhile, in other areas of the country, mainly rural, they do not have the tests to confirm infection. They are simply treating the ill.

Best measure is the fatality count...easy to count bodies...

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3504 on: March 22, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »
Best measure is the fatality count...easy to count bodies...

I'd imagine even death counts will start to lag in the fog of war in the most overwhelmed locales.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3505 on: March 22, 2020, 02:46:05 PM »
I admit that my favorite slot of 5-15000 in the poll would have changed not much but i still am of the opinion that the 10'000-100'000 slot should have been somewhat less huge than 10 fold the lower value.

Many who voted misinterpreted the question which asked how many deaths we could expect in this decade. I think this might explain the concentration of votes at the low end of the range. 15,000 is woefully low as the current death toll worldwide is 13,643 and these are only the deaths attributed to COVID-19, a dreadful undercount. We will shoot past 15,000 in the next few days. Truth of the matter, we will never fully understand the number killed by this thing.

I voted 1 to 10 million but I am a pessimist.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3506 on: March 22, 2020, 02:50:33 PM »
Coronavirus: Who's Feeding America
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-food-supply-chain-133e5ff0-d2b6-4bdf-a537-17b9aa328c4b.html

Why it matters: America isn't running out of food. But there's increasing strain on the supply chain as the workers who produce and deliver our groceries are sheltering at home, quarantined, or are (justifiably) too spooked to show up for work.

“The supply chain used to flow very evenly, but when you have surges, it takes more people," says Brian Beattie, senior vice president of sales at Lineage Logistics, which runs a large network of cold storage facilities.

Farms are anticipating labor shortages as the State Department delays the processing of H-2A visa workers from Mexico.

Truckers are finding it difficult to do their jobs as truck spots, restaurants and motels close their doors, reports the WSJ.

"As grocery employees toil, some of their supermarket bosses can't sign up reinforcements fast enough," per NBC news.

And as the virus continues to spread, these workers are often in high-risk scenarios, working in close quarters for long hours.

This week, Amazon reported its first case of coronavirus, at a U.S. warehouse in Queens, per the Atlantic.

Many food producers say they won't be able to go operate at full capacity while practicing social distancing.

American agriculture relies on 250,000 H-2A visa workers each year, and the industry is lobbying the government to make sure they can enter the country.

There are some efforts underway to assist food workers, but not enough, experts tell us.

Three states — Minnesota, Vermont and Michigan — have classified grocery workers as "essential" workers, making them eligible for child care and other benefits alongside health care workers, law enforcement and first responders. (Look for other states to follow suit.)

Food workers would be better protected with face masks, but there is a national shortage — even hospital workers don't have enough.

Robot food-pickers and autonomous trucks could one day prove helpful, but for now the technology isn't ready to replace humans entirely.

"We don't know how long of a long term this is," says Ananth Iyer, a professor of supply chain management at Purdue University.

He says that food companies must adopt new policies to enforce social distancing at work, even if they're slightly less efficient.

"I'm hopeful that a lot of the manufacturing side and the supply-chain side can be managed in such a way to protect the employees and continue to get the product out," Iyer says. "This needs to happen yesterday."

The bottom line: Without the workers needed to harvest, produce and deliver our food, the entire supply chain breaks down. And governments and companies are lagging in their efforts to ensuring that these vital workers are protected amid the pandemic.

-----------------------------

Coronavirus stress-tests the food supply network
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-agriculture/2020/03/18/coronavirus-stress-tests-the-food-supply-network-786186

... Fresh produce continues to flow across the Southern border from Mexico — which accounts for about 50 percent of the U.S. fruit and vegetable supply.

But ...

THE FARMWORKER VISA PINCH: A potential threat to the food supply is the closure of U.S. embassies and consulates in Mexico, effective today, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. U.S. agriculture depends on migrant farmworkers, many of whom come from Mexico on seasonal worker visas known as H-2A — an application process that can require in-person interviews.

Foreign workers with previous work experience in the U.S. who do not require in-person interviews will be allowed to return under the H-2A program, said Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. However, the administration’s new restrictions mean American farmers won’t have access to all of the skilled labor needed at a critical time in the planting season, he added. ... The Farm Bureau is urging the administration to find “safe, practical ways to admit farm laborers as emergency workers for visa purposes.”

... The United Farm Workers is asking agricultural employers to ensure the safety of their laborers, as well as buyers and consumers. They called for specific steps like extending sick pay to 40 hours or more and not requiring workers to provide doctors’ notes before taking sick time.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3507 on: March 22, 2020, 02:56:44 PM »
I admit that my favorite slot of 5-15000 in the poll would have changed not much but i still am of the opinion that the 10'000-100'000 slot should have been somewhat less huge than 10 fold the lower value.

Many who voted misinterpreted the question which asked how many deaths we could expect in this decade. I think this might explain the concentration of votes at the low end of the range. 15,000 is woefully low as the current death toll worldwide is 13,643 and these are only the deaths attributed to COVID-19, a dreadful undercount. We will shoot past 15,000 in the next few days. Truth of the matter, we will never fully understand the number killed by this thing.

I voted 1 to 10 million but I am a pessimist.
And I also referred to indirect deaths if it gets bad enough to collapse the medical system and economy, which is why I voted 10 to 100 million.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3508 on: March 22, 2020, 03:10:42 PM »
Washington State Warns It Could Run Out of Ventilators
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-news.html

In Washington State, which has over 1,600 confirmed coronavirus cases, the chief medical officer at Virginia Mason Memorial in Yakima said on Saturday that the hospital could run out of ventilators by April 8 if the case projections do not improve and the hospital cannot acquire other machines.

The official, Dr. Marty Brueggemann, said he had witnessed a jarring juxtaposition of what is going on inside the hospital — which is controlling visitors and preparing for an onslaught of patients — and out in the community, where people hav​e​ been gathering in large groups.

“We will have to decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t,” Dr. Brueggemann said. “That’s only 19 days away.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-medical-rationing.html

​The state’s Department of Health has told local leaders that only the highest-priority areas will have access to the government’s reserves of protective equipment, including N95 masks.

... U.S. officials say it is too late to pursue the strategy of South Korea, which instituted widespread testing to contain the pandemic. Instead, the focus is on identifying those who are the most sick and trying to save lives.

-----------------------------

Lockdowns alone won’t defeat the outbreak, a W.H.O. expert says
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-news.html

As the number of global coronavirus cases surpassed 311,000 and the death toll rose to more than 13,400, the World Health Organization’s top emergency expert said on Sunday that countries could not simply lock down their societies to defeat coronavirus without public health measures to avoid a resurgence of the virus down the road.

“What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them,” the expert, Mike Ryan, said in an interview on the BBC’s “Andrew Marr Show.” “If we don’t put in place the strong public health measures now,” he said, “when those movement restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, the danger is the disease will jump back up.”

----------------------------

A quake struck on Sunday near the Croatian capital, Zagreb, complicating quarantine measures to slow the spread of the outbreak and sending residents pouring into the streets during a partial lockdown. ... It was the strongest earthquake to hit the city since 1880.

---------------------------

Officials on Sunday reported the first two coronavirus cases in the densely populated Gaza Strip, where aid workers say the virus’s spread could quickly lead to a public health disaster.

International aid groups have been bracing for the arrival of the coronavirus in Gaza, an impoverished coastal enclave where medical facilities have eroded under a 13-year blockade maintained by Israel and Egypt.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3509 on: March 22, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »
Quote
“We will have to decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t,” Dr. Brueggemann said. “That’s only 19 days away.”

At this point, in the US, it’s all in whom you know.
”Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi.  You’re our only hope.”
Quote
  < We are about to get slammed at PHSJMC  [Bellingham, Washington state]
My hospitals current urgent needs:
1) tyvek like suits
2) goggles ( must surround the eye)
3) surgical hats
4) masks - specify N95 or surgical
5) Face shields
@elonmusk if you can help pls email [us]
#Covid_19

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/21/20, 5:19 PM
We have N95 masks & getting PAPRs. Will have our team reach out.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1241474482432167936
PAPR = Powered Air Purifying Respirator (for health care workers)

We know from Twitter that Musk and his team has been in communication with the New York City mayor’s office, and the engineering team at Medtronics.  And this:
“We have 250k N95 masks. Aiming to start distributing those to hospitals tomorrow night. Should have over 1000 ventilators by next week.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/21/elon-musk-should-have-1000-ventilators-next-week-250k-n95-masks-for-hospitals-tomorrow-cleantechnica-exclusive/

Meanwhile, since science and facts don’t impress him, we wait for Trump’s non-science minions to persuade him that federal action would improve his image (or his income).
Hospitals, doctors, nurses call on Trump to 'immediately' ramp up production of medical supplies
03/22/20 07:28 AM EDT
Quote
Trump previously said he would only invoke the law in a "worst-case scenario" and that states were in a better position to manage supply shortages.
"https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/488851-hospitals-nurses-call-on-trump-to-immediately-ramp-up-medical


Compare China’s government response (Bloomberg):
How China Bent Over Backward to Help Tesla When the Virus Hit
Quote
After the coronavirus outbreak caused a nationwide shortage of face masks in January, Chinese officials were quick to ensure that Tesla Inc. wouldn’t be left without.

China’s government helped the California-based carmaker secure the sought-after supplies that allowed it to reopen at a time when many of its competitors were still shut down. Tesla received 10,000 masks, cases of disinfectant that require a government permit, thermometers and other materials that allowed the company to restart its factory near Shanghai the first working day after the extended Lunar New Year break, according to state-run media.

Besides the protective materials, Chinese authorities helped arrange dormitories for hundreds of Tesla employees, as well as transport to and from the plant amid the turmoil. Shanghai Lingang Human Resources Co., a government-backed agency that coordinates hiring in the area, said it has helped Tesla add more than 100 new workers since the outbreak, plus it’s assisted with virus screening and online interviews.

Authorities are also trying to ensure that Tesla’s parts suppliers in China resume production as soon as possible by providing epidemic-prevention materials, Sun Xiaohe, a local official in charge of assisting Tesla, told state media. Catering was also arranged, they reported. …
https://apple.news/A6UpzBdghS4KzdzyzuparDQ
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3510 on: March 22, 2020, 04:00:59 PM »
Omari J Hardy's Comments on Covid19 in Lake Worth, Florida 3/20/20
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3511 on: March 22, 2020, 04:05:13 PM »
Covidiot, definition
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3512 on: March 22, 2020, 04:16:15 PM »
Let me try that in a sentence.

 "Anyone not wearing a mask in public is a covidiot and an inconsiderate asshole."

I like it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

JD

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3513 on: March 22, 2020, 04:21:34 PM »
Based on the data here https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Deaths.csv the US and most European countries are following the Italy pathway.  The best fit seems to be the number of deaths doubling every 2.5 days for the first 20 days then dropping to doubling every 5.25 days after that.

No obvious departures from that pathway for the countries listed below.



Days since
first death

Doubling
time
(days)

Predicted
deaths on day

Predicted
Cumluative
deaths

Country Status
10 2.5 18 69
11 2.5 24 93 Germany (yesterday 23, total 84)
12 2.5 31 124 Netherlands (yesterday 30, total 136)
13 2.5 42 166
14 2.5 55 221 United Kingdom (yesterday 66, total 233)
15 2.5 73 295 US (yesterday 82, total 307)
16 2.5 98 392
17 2.5 130 522 France (yesterday 207, total 562)
18 2.5 172 694
19 2.5 228 922
20 2.5 260 1,182
21 5.2 297 1,479
22 5.2 339 1,818 Spain (yesterday 345, total 1,720)
23 5.2 387 2,205
24 5.2 441 2,646
25 5.2 503 3,149
26 5.2 574 3,723
27 5.2 655 4,378
28 5.2 747 5,125 Italy (yesterday 793, total 4,825)
29 5.2 852 5,977
30 5.2 972 6,950
31 5.2 1,109 8,059
32 5.2 1,265 9,324
33 5.2 1,443 10,767
34 5.2 1,647 12,414
35 5.2 1,878 14,292

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3514 on: March 22, 2020, 04:29:45 PM »
Let me try that in a sentence.

 "Anyone not wearing a mask in public is a covidiot and an inconsiderate asshole."

I like it.
I don't know in your country but in Spain it's impossible to find a mask since late February (maybe before, but that's the first time I tried). Hospitals are (righteously) hoarding all material. So I have to shop with gloves but no mask. Anyway,  I have avoided crowd and peak hour in markets since this started and so far so good.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3515 on: March 22, 2020, 04:35:03 PM »
Let me try that in a sentence.

 "Anyone not wearing a mask in public is a covidiot and an inconsiderate asshole."

I like it.
I don't know in your country but in Spain it's impossible to find a mask since late February (maybe before, but that's the first time I tried). Hospitals are (righteously) hoarding all material. So I have to shop with gloves but no mask. Anyway,  I have avoided crowd and peak hour in markets since this started and so far so good.

Wearing a scarf over nose and mouth might help but in America you might get shot entering a shop dressed like a bandit.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3516 on: March 22, 2020, 04:37:47 PM »
More than 3400 Health professionals have got COVID-19 in Spain, a 12% of total infected. This has been aggravated by a depletion of PPE.
A good reason to not be a Covidiot, be solidary and live without a mask since I am not part of population with highest risk of severe outcome.

Anyway I stay at home 99% time as mandated

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3517 on: March 22, 2020, 04:55:57 PM »
Quote
A total of 199 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection underwent randomization; 99 were assigned to the lopinavir–ritonavir group, and 100 to the standard-care group. Treatment with lopinavir–ritonavir was not associated with a difference from standard care in the time to clinical improvement (hazard ratio for clinical improvement, 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 1.72). Mortality at 28 days was similar in the lopinavir–ritonavir group and the standard-care group (19.2% vs. 25.0%; difference, −5.8 percentage points; 95% CI, −17.3 to 5.7). The percentages of patients with detectable viral RNA at various time points were similar. In a modified intention-to-treat analysis, lopinavir–ritonavir led to a median time to clinical improvement that was shorter by 1 day than that observed with standard care (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.91). Gastrointestinal adverse events were more common in the lopinavir–ritonavir group, but serious adverse events were more common in the standard-care group. Lopinavir–ritonavir treatment was stopped early in 13 patients (13.8%) because of adverse events.

Link >> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282?query=featured_home

I don't find this result surprising at all, regardless of whether Kaletra is ineffective, somewhat effective, or even highly effective.  There are examples from other acute viral infections where obtaining a positive impact requires use early in the course of disease.  Use of Tamiflu for influenza is the obvious example.  Clinicians in SKorea have emphasized the importance of starting Kaletra or chloroquine early in the course of disease, as the Chinese appear to have been doing.

I think this trial is analogous to a hypothetical study of the effectiveness of a novel substance called "water" for putting out housefires.  Since the hazards of the novel substance are unknown and might exacerbate things, they decide to reserve it's use for large fires only.  They find that the houses are made uninhabitable whether water is used or not.

A meaningful study would look at high-risk people initially diagnosed with the infection, but not yet seriously ill.

Specifically, in this case, enrollment in the study was of patients " involving hospitalized adult patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, which causes the respiratory illness Covid-19, and an oxygen saturation (Sao2) of 94% or less while they were breathing ambient air or a ratio of the partial pressure of oxygen (Pao2) to the fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) of less than 300 mm Hg." 

The infection, then, had already seriously impaired lung function in all cases, before the drug was started.  They waited until all houses in the study were already halfway burned down.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3518 on: March 22, 2020, 04:56:15 PM »
Based on the data here https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Deaths.csv the US and most European countries are following the Italy pathway.  The best fit seems to be the number of deaths doubling every 2.5 days for the first 20 days then dropping to doubling every 5.25 days after that.

No obvious departures from that pathway for the countries listed below.



Days since
first death

Doubling
time
(days)

Predicted
deaths on day

Predicted
Cumluative
deaths

Country Status
10 2.5 18 69
11 2.5 24 93 Germany (yesterday 23, total 84)
12 2.5 31 124 Netherlands (yesterday 30, total 136)
13 2.5 42 166
14 2.5 55 221 United Kingdom (yesterday 66, total 233)
15 2.5 73 295 US (yesterday 82, total 307)
16 2.5 98 392
17 2.5 130 522 France (yesterday 207, total 562)
18 2.5 172 694
19 2.5 228 922
20 2.5 260 1,182
21 5.2 297 1,479
22 5.2 339 1,818 Spain (yesterday 345, total 1,720)
23 5.2 387 2,205
24 5.2 441 2,646
25 5.2 503 3,149
26 5.2 574 3,723
27 5.2 655 4,378
28 5.2 747 5,125 Italy (yesterday 793, total 4,825)
29 5.2 852 5,977
30 5.2 972 6,950
31 5.2 1,109 8,059
32 5.2 1,265 9,324
33 5.2 1,443 10,767
34 5.2 1,647 12,414
35 5.2 1,878 14,292

Here is the graph for Hubei

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3519 on: March 22, 2020, 04:57:19 PM »
A good reason to not be a Covidiot, be solidary and live without a mask since I am not part of population with highest risk of severe outcome.

Words of reason. There are people who need them more than you. Donate your masks to the ones who need them most.

Also, if you have a sewing machine (and a little talent), try this:



Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3520 on: March 22, 2020, 05:03:12 PM »
As far as anyone not taking care of patients is concerned, this is mask:



If you don't cover your respiratory holes you are covidiot that will get others infected. Cover your respiratory holes! Keep your germs to yourself.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3521 on: March 22, 2020, 05:22:37 PM »
WTF?

Quote
Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."


Link >> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3522 on: March 22, 2020, 05:23:51 PM »
A persuasive argument:

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3523 on: March 22, 2020, 05:29:24 PM »
If you don't cover your respiratory holes you are covidiot that will get others infected. Cover your respiratory holes! Keep your germs to yourself.

If you are living in a region where masks are rare and keep them for yourself instead of donating them to nurses, you are a way bigger covidiot!

You can stay at home. Nurses can't!


Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3525 on: March 22, 2020, 05:38:03 PM »
Missouri, US

Quote
Augie Nash (@AugieNash) 3/20/20, 9:33 PM
I'm at Sam's Club

Older couple in 70's checking out

Cashier asks if they found everything they needed

Lady said no - needed bread

Young man in 20's heard this and says " Ma'am, I have a loaf you can have, and if you see anything in my cart, you're welcome to it"


#Covid_19
https://twitter.com/augienash/status/1241176063302144000
(Sam’s Club is a membership warehouse store.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3526 on: March 22, 2020, 06:00:23 PM »
Reposting from a misplaced thread.  At this abysmally late stage, this may be the most important information for those on the front lines.  Safely reusing PPE may have more impact than anything else that can be done now.  The thread was: 
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3020.0.html




Universal and reusable virus deactivation system for respiratory protection

Scientific Reports volume 7, Article number: 39956 (2017)


Here, we report the development of a universal, reusable virus deactivation system by functionalization of the main fibrous filtration unit of surgical mask with sodium chloride salt. The salt coating on the fiber surface dissolves upon exposure to virus aerosols and recrystallizes during drying, destroying the pathogens. When tested with tightly sealed sides, salt-coated filters showed remarkably higher filtration efficiency than conventional mask filtration layer, and 100% survival rate was observed in mice infected with virus penetrated through salt-coated filters. Viruses captured on salt-coated filters exhibited rapid infectivity loss compared to gradual decrease on bare filters. Salt-coated filters proved highly effective in deactivating influenza viruses regardless of subtypes and following storage in harsh environmental conditions. Our results can be applied in obtaining a broad-spectrum, airborne pathogen prevention device in preparation for epidemic and pandemic of respiratory diseases.

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3527 on: March 22, 2020, 06:03:06 PM »
I am a realist.
I voted 10 to 100 million and are still confident we will see still such a toll

Some are thinking from a first world perspective.

When this runs rampant though Africa, India and other less wealthy places ?
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3528 on: March 22, 2020, 06:03:21 PM »
New York City
Quote
Erin Banco (@ErinBanco) 3/21/20, 4:30 PM
At least four nurses and doctors working on coronavirus in NYC told me that Friday was the first day they really felt overwhelmed with patients, many of whom were otherwise healthy and under 40 yrs old.
https://twitter.com/erinbanco/status/1241462126671286275
EB: One nurse I spoke to said the population she's seen in her hospital with COVID19 are NOT majority over 65. There is a real mix. Worried people are coming to the hospital too late, when symptoms are bad
EB: A warning from all of them: Younger, healthy people need to take these lockdowns seriously. Not just for the old, more vulnerable folks. Young people are dying, too.

< I’m hearing that a lot of the admitted young patients under 40s in NYC are mostly heavy vape users, that’s what I’m hearing from friends on the frontline. This is proving a big problem!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3529 on: March 22, 2020, 06:07:19 PM »
New York City
Quote
Erin Banco (@ErinBanco) 3/21/20, 4:30 PM
At least four nurses and doctors working on coronavirus in NYC told me that Friday was the first day they really felt overwhelmed with patients, many of whom were otherwise healthy and under 40 yrs old.
https://twitter.com/erinbanco/status/1241462126671286275
EB: One nurse I spoke to said the population she's seen in her hospital with COVID19 are NOT majority over 65. There is a real mix. Worried people are coming to the hospital too late, when symptoms are bad
EB: A warning from all of them: Younger, healthy people need to take these lockdowns seriously. Not just for the old, more vulnerable folks. Young people are dying, too.

< I’m hearing that a lot of the admitted young patients under 40s in NYC are mostly heavy vape users, that’s what I’m hearing from friends on the frontline. This is proving a big problem!

And the risk for drug users is probably also bigger, hard-drugs.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3530 on: March 22, 2020, 06:11:21 PM »
WTF?

Quote
Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."


Link >> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s

Strange pneumonia CoV-2 does not make. Maybe it's still possible to find out the culprit here though I doubt there are good enough samples to be found anymore.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3531 on: March 22, 2020, 06:21:16 PM »
culprit

That's not the thing i wanted to point out.

Point is, if they had cases in Italy in November, and China had its first cases in December, i'm thinking the virus could have originated here?


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3532 on: March 22, 2020, 06:24:14 PM »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3533 on: March 22, 2020, 06:25:15 PM »
China had its first cases in mid-November, recognized retroactively.
I strongly doubt the virus started circulating in Italy at the same time, or the disease would have taken off earlier than it did.

RunningChristo

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3534 on: March 22, 2020, 06:26:49 PM »
More than 1% of the population (5.4 mill.) here in Norway have been tested so far  (as of Sunday morning local time). 0.3% death rate (2260 positive), pretty low, expect to rise some in the days ahead. In a normal year 900 will succumb to flu. These days people and the press seem to "forget" that. How many will die until lockdown?

We do practice social distancing but when people are banned from visiting their cottage if it is located in another commune (mostly are), they can't cross the border and do the "despisable" shopping in Sweden, then most people are stuck at their homes and thus swarming the pedestrian roads, the Forest and last but not least making an extra pressure upon shops still operating as normal.

Hard to say what remedy is the wisest. More and more people (also elderly) is voicing fear for shutting all down,  ruining the future for the younger generations.
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3535 on: March 22, 2020, 06:30:07 PM »
China had its first cases in mid-November

Oh, thank you, Oren. Then my timeline was wrong.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3536 on: March 22, 2020, 06:39:10 PM »
WTF?

Quote
Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."


Link >> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s

Can also be part of the blame game. Because numbers start to go up pretty fast in many places. Than they can use some fog to hide in.

Alexander555

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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3538 on: March 22, 2020, 06:44:08 PM »
Wow USA testing like crazy, good for them. Somebody figured there's a capitalist system to save.
(and elections to win)

In Spain however the government response in testing is so slow.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3539 on: March 22, 2020, 06:50:58 PM »
Maybe a stupid question. Is there a difference between getting infected, like when you go to the shop. And getting infected in a area where you are exposed to the virus all the time. Like in a hospital, or like in a lockdown like in Wuhan. The entire family infected in an apartment and you have to stay in the apartment together. Does the exposure makes it worse ?

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3540 on: March 22, 2020, 06:57:37 PM »
Maybe a stupid question. Is there a difference between getting infected, like when you go to the shop. And getting infected in a area where you are exposed to the virus all the time. Like in a hospital, or like in a lockdown like in Wuhan. The entire family infected in an apartment and you have to stay in the apartment together. Does the exposure makes it worse ?
Possibly. There are many reports of health workers getting it real bad even if they're young and fit.
The initial viral load may play a role. If you touch a supermarket surface with your hand and later touch your eyes, it takes days for the viral load to build up and your defense system may have more time to recognize the virus.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3541 on: March 22, 2020, 06:58:15 PM »
The number of viruses you are exposed to is indeed a factor.

The higher the number, the more likely you get infected.

For example, if you are in the same room with an infected person, but only inhale viruses, it's unlikely to get infected. There is a very low number of viruses in the air. But in a droplet the infected person coughed out, there are a lot of viruses. If they cough in your direction and a droplet hits you, the likelihood of getting infected by that is very high.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3542 on: March 22, 2020, 06:59:00 PM »
Breaking:

Angela Merkel in quarantine due to exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3543 on: March 22, 2020, 06:59:41 PM »
Hair Furor is on top of it.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3544 on: March 22, 2020, 07:04:38 PM »
Maybe a stupid question. Is there a difference between getting infected, like when you go to the shop. And getting infected in a area where you are exposed to the virus all the time. Like in a hospital, or like in a lockdown like in Wuhan. The entire family infected in an apartment and you have to stay in the apartment together. Does the exposure makes it worse ?
Possibly. There are many reports of health workers getting it real bad even if they're young and fit.
The initial viral load may play a role. If you touch a supermarket surface with your hand and later touch your eyes, it takes days for the viral load to build up and your defense system may have more time to recognize the virus.

That's what made me thinking. At some point 13 doctors in Wuhan died. And they were not that old at all. But they worked day and night, and had to stay in the hospital all the time. ( also thanks, blumenkraft )

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3545 on: March 22, 2020, 07:21:30 PM »
Welcome. :)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3546 on: March 22, 2020, 07:29:55 PM »
Sen. Rand Paul Has Tested Positive for Coronavirus
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html

Kentucky Republican Rand Paul (age: 57) is the first US senator to test positive for coronavirus, according to a statement on Twitter.

"He is feeling fine and is in quarantine. He is asymptomatic and was tested out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and events. He was not aware of any direct contact with any infected person," the post said.

-------------------------------



-----------------

Sen. Rand Paul Votes Against $8 Billion Coronavirus Emergency AID Package
https://www.wdrb.com/news/sen-rand-paul-votes-against-billion-coronavirus-emergency-package/article_6686e1c0-5f02-11ea-a592-731e435cf74d.html

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The U.S. Senate voted Thursday afternoon on $8 billion of funds to fight the coronavirus, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was the only one to vote against it.

Paul proposed that under the "Pay-as-you-go" rule, Congress should cut $8 billion worth of unspent foreign aid money in order to pay for the coronavirus funds. But the Senate rejected his plan, and he voted against the emergency package.

https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-says-hell-stay-203100610.html

Paul is certainly consistent when it comes to spending bills. Over the summer, he was opposed to passing the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund (which also had bipartisan support), arguing that he'll "always take a stand against borrowing more money to pay for programs rather than setting priorities and cutting waste."

As for the new coronavirus, Paul said Tuesday thinks there's "room for optimism," noting that he could see it dissipating more quickly than people are portraying.

---------------------------
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 07:56:27 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

cognitivebias2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3547 on: March 22, 2020, 07:49:39 PM »
Hair Furor is on top of it.

It would be great to have an updated version of this with all the inane things said in the last 10 days or so.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3548 on: March 22, 2020, 07:50:11 PM »
Maybe a stupid question. Is there a difference between getting infected, like when you go to the shop. And getting infected in a area where you are exposed to the virus all the time. Like in a hospital, or like in a lockdown like in Wuhan. The entire family infected in an apartment and you have to stay in the apartment together. Does the exposure makes it worse ?
Possibly. There are many reports of health workers getting it real bad even if they're young and fit.
The initial viral load may play a role. If you touch a supermarket surface with your hand and later touch your eyes, it takes days for the viral load to build up and your defense system may have more time to recognize the virus.

+1   Exactly.  I'm not aware of hard data the confirms you get much sicker with a heavy initial viral dose, but it is to be expected.   The more virus particles there are to start with, the more of a head start they get to out-pace the immune response.

Freegrass

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3549 on: March 22, 2020, 08:03:14 PM »
Hair Furor is on top of it.
America is winning again with 14,539 new cases in one day!
Not sure if that's making America so great right now...
Good luck people! It's gonna be bad...
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...