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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 192171 times)

Freegrass

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3550 on: March 22, 2020, 08:03:14 PM »
Hair Furor is on top of it.
America is winning again with 14,539 new cases in one day!
Not sure if that's making America so great right now...
Good luck people! It's gonna be bad...
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3551 on: March 22, 2020, 08:14:29 PM »
Based on the data here https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Deaths.csv the US and most European countries are following the Italy pathway.  The best fit seems to be the number of deaths doubling every 2.5 days for the first 20 days then dropping to doubling every 5.25 days after that.

No obvious departures from that pathway for the countries listed below.



Days since
first death

Doubling
time
(days)

Predicted
deaths on day

Predicted
Cumluative
deaths

Country Status
10 2.5 18 69
11 2.5 24 93 Germany (yesterday 23, total 84)
12 2.5 31 124 Netherlands (yesterday 30, total 136)
13 2.5 42 166
14 2.5 55 221 United Kingdom (yesterday 66, total 233)
15 2.5 73 295 US (yesterday 82, total 307)
16 2.5 98 392
17 2.5 130 522 France (yesterday 207, total 562)
18 2.5 172 694
19 2.5 228 922
20 2.5 260 1,182
21 5.2 297 1,479
22 5.2 339 1,818 Spain (yesterday 345, total 1,720)
23 5.2 387 2,205
24 5.2 441 2,646
25 5.2 503 3,149
26 5.2 574 3,723
27 5.2 655 4,378
28 5.2 747 5,125 Italy (yesterday 793, total 4,825)
29 5.2 852 5,977
30 5.2 972 6,950
31 5.2 1,109 8,059
32 5.2 1,265 9,324
33 5.2 1,443 10,767
34 5.2 1,647 12,414
35 5.2 1,878 14,292

The U.S. went from 15 deaths on Mar. 6 to 30 on Mar. 10.  That rose to 57 on Mar. 14, and 150 on Mar. 18.  That is a doubling every 4 days.  It then doubled in 3 days to 307.  The daily deaths have dropped over the past two days, so it may take 6 days for the next doubling, and longer thereafter.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3552 on: March 22, 2020, 08:23:22 PM »
Hair Furor is on top of it.
America is winning again with 14,539 new cases in one day!
Not sure if that's making America so great right now...
Good luck people! It's gonna be bad...
At least he's doing America Tested, which is better than one week ago, when he was doing not much.
But if they don't get serious in confinement it won't be that useful. And I feel that time is passed.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3553 on: March 22, 2020, 08:28:42 PM »
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

The chance of dying from all causes increases with age in much the same way as the chance of dying from a COVID infection and is roughly a year's worth of normal risk. (assumes health care not overwhelmed when you are ill, make that roughly two years rather than one if the epidemic is allowed to rage unchecked)

Quote
Average risk of death doubles in 8 years.

COVID-19 very roughly contributes a year’s worth of risk [of dying].

That offers some rational perspective.

So that that mean that this year is as dangerous for any of us as the year 2028 would have been?

I am turning 60 this year. So this year could be about as risky for my life as if I would be 68. That sounds risky.

That would be the case if the COVID risk exactly followed the age risk, but it doesn't. The COVID risk is a bit higher than the age risk in the 60s and a bit lower at other ages. Also if almost everyone gets it the risk is quite a bit higher. If there is an unchecked epidemic this year I reckon it would add in the region of 20 years worth of risk to those in their 60s. i.e. the mortality among those in the 60s this year would be like the mortality among those in their 80s last year.

For an individual there are massive error bars on that because there isn't data for how co-morbidities affect the COVID risk and they strongly affect an individual's background risk.


I am not aiming to be exact. Just trying to get a feel for the risk.

According to the linked article, this virus is expected to double the number of deaths this year. That is about 56 million extra deaths (which fits with my choice in the poll).

Of course it is pretty random. My risk to die this year in something unrelated to corona is not very high I think (no medical issues that I am aware of, just a bit overweight). My risk to die in corona will be way higher than my ordinary risk this year. It will be the risk of a random 68-year old. The kind of person that no bank will lend money to, because they are not unlikely to die. That is a bit scary.

A young person does not be terribly worried. If you are 30, the risk to die of the virus is about as large as the risk of any random 38-year old in a year.

Steven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3554 on: March 22, 2020, 08:32:04 PM »
America is winning again with 14,539 new cases in one day!

I assume you got that information from worldometers.  But there is something wrong with the latest numbers on that website: it says that there were exactly 12,345 new cases in New York state today, which is a suspicious number.  In fact, NY governor Cuomo said today that there were 4,812 new cases in the state.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3555 on: March 22, 2020, 08:32:52 PM »
Go to your room.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3556 on: March 22, 2020, 08:39:53 PM »
Walrus wrote: " The daily deaths have dropped over the past two days, so it may take 6 days for the next doubling, and longer thereafter."

Not likely. Weekends sometime see a suppression of numbers for various reasons. We'll soon see.

Alex wrote: "Placing 60 000 people together in a shelter..."

Can we please not source things from places like Breitbart here?! It just undermines the legitimacy of the whole site when such garbage is allowed here, imvho.

"...Its journalists are widely considered to be ideologically driven, and some of its content has been called misogynistic, xenophobic, and racist by liberals and many traditional conservatives alike.[11] The site has published a number of conspiracy theories,[12][13] and intentionally misleading stories." from wiki

Thanks.

(PS, I am the eggman :) )
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 09:15:20 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3557 on: March 22, 2020, 08:42:28 PM »
Heckuva job, Gaynor. ::)
Quote
State of the Union (@CNNSotu) 3/22/20, 9:22 AM
FEMA administrator Pete Gaynor says Pres. Trump hasn’t enforced the Defense Production Act to order companies to manufacture masks, ventilators and other critical supplies because companies are donating equipment. “It’s happening without using that lever.” #CNNSOTU
https://twitter.com/cnnsotu/status/1241716761743032322
1 min vid at link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3558 on: March 22, 2020, 08:54:43 PM »
US fatalities doubling every 3 days

Mar 19   154
Mar 22   308
Mar 25   616
Mar 28   1232
Mar 31   2462

I believe that much is inevitable

Mar 22 393 and the day isn't over yet.

I think the doublings will increase to two days because of the population density of NYC, the belief this is just a flu and the fear of mask-wearing among the population.  Things like vaping, smoking, obesity, diabetes and heart disease will likely make this disease worse in the USA.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Freegrass

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3559 on: March 22, 2020, 09:10:01 PM »
America is winning again with 14,539 new cases in one day!

I assume you got that information from worldometers.  But there is something wrong with the latest numbers on that website: it says that there were exactly 12,345 new cases in New York state today, which is a suspicious number.  In fact, NY governor Cuomo said today that there were 4,812 new cases in the state.
Yes, I think they made an error earlier. According to the new numbers, New York alone almost has as many new cases as Italy now, with 5,429 new cases. 8,149 for the whole of the US.
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3560 on: March 22, 2020, 09:11:39 PM »
Walrus wrote: " The daily deaths have dropped over the past two days, so it may take 6 days for the next doubling, and longer thereafter."

Not likely. Weekends sometime see a suppression of numbers for various reasons. We'll soon see.

Walrus wrote: "Placing 60 000 people together in a shelter..."

Can we please not source things from places like Breitbart here?! It just undermines the legitimacy of the whole site when such garbage is allowed here, imvho.

"...Its journalists are widely considered to be ideologically driven, and some of its content has been called misogynistic, xenophobic, and racist by liberals and many traditional conservatives alike.[11] The site has published a number of conspiracy theories,[12][13] and intentionally misleading stories." from wiki

Thanks.

(PS, I am the eggman :) )

Hi eggman lol.  I am getting my info from worldometer.  That supposed breibart quote was not from me.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3561 on: March 22, 2020, 09:15:56 PM »
Very sorry about that, Walrus. It's been corrected. Thanks for pointing it out
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3562 on: March 22, 2020, 09:27:24 PM »
Walrus wrote: " The daily deaths have dropped over the past two days, so it may take 6 days for the next doubling, and longer thereafter."

Not likely. Weekends sometime see a suppression of numbers for various reasons. We'll soon see.

Alex wrote: "Placing 60 000 people together in a shelter..."

Can we please not source things from places like Breitbart here?! It just undermines the legitimacy of the whole site when such garbage is allowed here, imvho.

"...Its journalists are widely considered to be ideologically driven, and some of its content has been called misogynistic, xenophobic, and racist by liberals and many traditional conservatives alike.[11] The site has published a number of conspiracy theories,[12][13] and intentionally misleading stories." from wiki

Thanks.

(PS, I am the eggman :) )

Is it not the truth ? Now your friends are going to print trillions of usd, what's that going to do with our climate or planet ? Your liberal left wings globalists friends are travelling across that planet to get everything a little bit cheaper. And what's the result, corruption and money printing. Turning the entire planet into a slaughterhouse.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3563 on: March 22, 2020, 09:30:24 PM »
Seating for reporters in the age of coronavirus.

(Reporters entering the White House briefing room [not this room] have their temperature checked.)
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Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3564 on: March 22, 2020, 09:30:42 PM »
Maybe a stupid question. Is there a difference between getting infected, like when you go to the shop. And getting infected in a area where you are exposed to the virus all the time. Like in a hospital, or like in a lockdown like in Wuhan. The entire family infected in an apartment and you have to stay in the apartment together. Does the exposure makes it worse ?
Possibly. There are many reports of health workers getting it real bad even if they're young and fit.
The initial viral load may play a role. If you touch a supermarket surface with your hand and later touch your eyes, it takes days for the viral load to build up and your defense system may have more time to recognize the virus.

+1   Exactly.  I'm not aware of hard data the confirms you get much sicker with a heavy initial viral dose, but it is to be expected.   The more virus particles there are to start with, the more of a head start they get to out-pace the immune response.

Yes I was wondering about this one. Should you isolate sick family members? It may be difficult depending on how you live, with children and so on. The whole family will probably be infected no matter what precautions you take.

What I found was this article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

Quote
The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes

My interpretation is that in a home care environment, where the sick person has mild or moderate symptoms, the viral load is low. Family members doesn't need to be treated any different than if they have the flu. There is probably no significant heightened risk for a severe outcome even if you are in close proximity to a sick family member. (People in risk groups excluded of course).

However, severe cases that end up in hospital will release massive amounts (60 times more according to the article) of viral particles that make health care workers more sick than the average Covid-19 patient.

Thoughts? I'm by no means an expert.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3565 on: March 22, 2020, 09:43:51 PM »
My big worry right now is not the 1st but Africa and the Middle East (i know, i am a racist). They have no chance at all, their whole population will be infected (the only saving grace is their young population). And they almost unavoidably will reinfect the EU and the US eventually.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3566 on: March 22, 2020, 09:47:26 PM »
Alex, if it's true, you should easily be able to find non-racist, more reliable sources to cite. Takes a second. Otherwise it just looks like you're trying to direct clicks to racists. Does that thrill you somehow?



"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3567 on: March 22, 2020, 09:48:11 PM »
If the droplets contain the big loads. It would at least be a good idea to wear a facemask in a shop, train, metro, bus, airport......

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3568 on: March 22, 2020, 09:50:46 PM »
Alex, if it's true, you should easily be able to find non-racist, more reliable sources to cite. Takes a second. Otherwise it just looks like you're trying to direct clicks to racists. Does that thrill you somehow?

I understand what you want to say, but i don't think Breitbart is the problem on this planet.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3569 on: March 22, 2020, 10:27:17 PM »
The deceased will be buried in a section reserved for muslims in cemeteries in the Netherlands.

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/3-turks-die-from-coronavirus-in-netherlands-153156



Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3570 on: March 22, 2020, 10:36:55 PM »
Cousin/guardian just called.
State on shutdown tomorrow.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3571 on: March 22, 2020, 10:42:54 PM »
Yes I was wondering about this one. Should you isolate sick family members? It may be difficult depending on how you live, with children and so on. The whole family will probably be infected no matter what precautions you take.

What I found was this article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

Quote
The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes

My interpretation is that in a home care environment, where the sick person has mild or moderate symptoms, the viral load is low. Family members doesn't need to be treated any different than if they have the flu. There is probably no significant heightened risk for a severe outcome even if you are in close proximity to a sick family member. (People in risk groups excluded of course).

However, severe cases that end up in hospital will release massive amounts (60 times more according to the article) of viral particles that make health care workers more sick than the average Covid-19 patient.

Thoughts? I'm by no means an expert.

This is to be expected.  With the closest virus, SARS, infected individuals only shed virus when symptomatic, and in rough correlation with symptom severity.

Here, there is viral shedding with no symptoms, but amount of shedding would expectedly still be in correlation with symptom severity.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3572 on: March 22, 2020, 10:48:12 PM »


Is it not the truth ? Now your friends are going to print trillions of usd, what's that going to do with our climate or planet ? Your liberal left wings globalists friends are travelling across that planet to get everything a little bit cheaper. And what's the result, corruption and money printing. Turning the entire planet into a slaughterhouse.

Don't be daft.  "Printing money" is done by a process called "quantitative easing."  The process can be reversed just as easily and quickly as it's instituted.  We'll have severe deflation, followed by some inflation in rebound, followed by normalization.

Corporate globalism is indeed a pox on humanity.  However, some form of globalized governance is now absolutely essential.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 10:54:36 PM by SteveMDFP »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3573 on: March 22, 2020, 10:53:24 PM »
Talking about the poll, the idea was that the high voters would say “1 billion because A and B and C” and the low voters would say “10 thousand because X and Y and Z” and each would change their votes and we might converge. I believe it is called the Delphi Method.
Of course, I messed up the setup so that went by the side.
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3574 on: March 22, 2020, 11:40:45 PM »

Tom

What State are you in, and what is the state of the shutdown?


I don't think shutting non-essential businesses will be seen as draconian. Not so sure what the effects of school shutdowns will be however.


From 8 to 18 little other than locking them away will keep them at home for a week. If they can't be kept in groups it means ~1 gard/kid.
There has to be a better way than welding them into the house with their family - doesn't there?


I've never raised children so if I'm missing something please let me know.
Terry

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3575 on: March 23, 2020, 12:11:32 AM »
re food supplies .. just heard today that there is no animal feed coming from S. America to N. Ireland until late summer .. a ripple of panic is starting to be felt @ the future of farming .
sad seeing the wholesalers in Holland full of unsold Mother's day flowers being destroyed . The whole flower industry is collapsing . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3576 on: March 23, 2020, 12:15:00 AM »
I live in Ohio, and all I know is what my cousin told me.
And I remembered the name of that alternate world tv show. It was “Counterpart”.
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Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3577 on: March 23, 2020, 12:19:31 AM »
Quote
The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes

Thoughts? I'm by no means an expert.

This is to be expected.  With the closest virus, SARS, infected individuals only shed virus when symptomatic, and in rough correlation with symptom severity.

Here, there is viral shedding with no symptoms, but amount of shedding would expectedly still be in correlation with symptom severity.

Thank you. As long as family members only have mild or moderate symptoms there is no reason to treat them as having a zombie virus then...

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3578 on: March 23, 2020, 12:24:22 AM »
Don't be daft.  "Printing money" is done by a process called "quantitative easing."  The process can be reversed just as easily and quickly as it's instituted. 

I don't want to hijack this thread with a diversion into macro-economics. And I'm no expert. But no, QE is not synonymous with "printing money." QE is a program of buying bonds by the fed.  It has "traditionally" been (since the fiscal crisis of 08/09) the purchase of government bonds. There is now talk of extending it to munis and even corporate bonds.  It cannot be unwound as easily as it starts because abruptly stopping QE causes instability in the bond markets.  There are many other ways the Fed and the Federal government can increase the money supply, inject liquidity and "stimulate" the economy.  For example, a Universal Basic Income (UBI) has nothing to do with QE.

I continue to think that the gang here that believes these tools can work in perpetuity and without limit are not correct.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3579 on: March 23, 2020, 12:34:11 AM »

I've never raised children so if I'm missing something please let me know.


You are probably correct.

Where I live they closed high schools/universities because those students often commute on crowded public transport. Seems like a good idea to reduce that. Those students can handle lessons over internet (most already do).

I doubt the benefits of closing primary/middle schools. No you dont lock the kids into the house... This will just mean that more parents have to be home to care for their kids, parents who may well be teachers/doctors/nurses/toilet paper factory workers...

Worst case scenario is that the grandparents will take care of their grandkids. You dont want that.

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3580 on: March 23, 2020, 01:30:00 AM »
Tom


The new Ohio laws can be found here:


https://www.scribd.com/document/452781877/Ohio-Stay-At-Home-Order


K-12 classes have been closed for a week already.


Most children won't become ill, but if asymptomatic they could become major sources of transmission. Following the tradition of having the grandparents serve as emergency babysitters would be disastrous.


WHO published a warning of the risks that exposed children present both to themselves and others.


Those in shuttered industries may not have problems staying home with young Johnny, but trusting a teen to stay home alone when his girlfriend is just a few backyards away, and her parents will be at work until 5 is too much to ask.


Lots of unchaperoned afternoon parties, perhaps an uptick in teenage pregnancy & STDs will follow?
I see no way around the unplanned consequences of partial shutdowns where portions of the workforce are expected to report for duty even as their state provided babysitting service, (K-12) is shuttered.
Terry


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3581 on: March 23, 2020, 01:31:02 AM »
Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

Quote
SARS-CoV-2 was more stable on plastic and stainless steel than on copper and cardboard, and viable virus was detected up to 72 hours after application to these surfaces (Figure 1A), although the virus titer was greatly reduced (from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter of medium after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). The stability kinetics of SARS-CoV-1 were similar (from 103.4 to 100.7 TCID50 per milliliter after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). On copper, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 4 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours. On cardboard, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 24 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours (Figure 1A).
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3582 on: March 23, 2020, 01:44:28 AM »
Don't be daft.  "Printing money" is done by a process called "quantitative easing."  The process can be reversed just as easily and quickly as it's instituted. 

I don't want to hijack this thread with a diversion into macro-economics. And I'm no expert. But no, QE is not synonymous with "printing money." QE is a program of buying bonds by the fed.  It has "traditionally" been (since the fiscal crisis of 08/09) the purchase of government bonds. There is now talk of extending it to munis and even corporate bonds.  It cannot be unwound as easily as it starts because abruptly stopping QE causes instability in the bond markets.  There are many other ways the Fed and the Federal government can increase the money supply, inject liquidity and "stimulate" the economy.  For example, a Universal Basic Income (UBI) has nothing to do with QE.

I continue to think that the gang here that believes these tools can work in perpetuity and without limit are not correct.

No, as written, my statement is correct.  With quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve uses freshly-created currency.  The "money printing" is electronic.  You are exactly correct that abruptly stopping or reversing this action would create chaos.  So, while it is indeed as *easy*, it won't actually be done abruptly.

However, when a UBI is issued by the Treasury, that is funded by issuing Treasury bonds.  The bonds when purchased suck up as much of the money supply as the UBI distributes.  Overall, money is shifted now from buyers of bonds to the poor.  Bond-holders get their return over time.

When done prudently, Federal Reserve money supply expansion and contraction can (and should) be done indefinitely.  I have confidence in the Federal Reserve to do this task responsibly.  However, I have no confidence in the politicians who direct fiscal policy.

GoodeWeather

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3583 on: March 23, 2020, 01:56:00 AM »
Pandemics seem to bring out the crazies.  Multiple reports of people showing up to people's houses in hazmat suits and as soon as you open the door they bust in and rob you. This has happened in Bergen County, NJ and Rockland County, NY.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3584 on: March 23, 2020, 02:07:09 AM »
I bumped into this site that measures provides estimated dates for hospitals being overwhelmed by CV.

I did a check, it seems to be good so.....

https://covidactnow.org/

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3585 on: March 23, 2020, 02:17:43 AM »
I bumped into this site that measures provides estimated dates for hospitals being overwhelmed by CV.

I did a check, it seems to be good so.....

https://covidactnow.org/

Thank you!  That is a great site.

Also, so far my projection from several days ago is right on track. Tomorrow - US - 44k+ confirmed.

Sam

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3586 on: March 23, 2020, 03:16:26 AM »
Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections Among the General Population

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18612429/


Quote
All types of masks reduced aerosol exposure, relatively stable over time, unaffected by duration of wear or type of activity, but with a high degree of individual variation. Personal respirators were more efficient than surgical masks, which were more efficient than home-made masks. Regardless of mask type, children were less well protected. Outward protection (mask wearing by a mechanical head) was less effective than inward protection (mask wearing by healthy volunteers).


And this isn't even looking at the best part of mask-wearing. Carriers keep their droplets and microdroplets in.
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edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3587 on: March 23, 2020, 04:10:44 AM »
Can everyone cutting and pasting from journal articles please mind their exponents? The quoted "from 103.7 to 100.6" is three orders of magnitude different from the actual change in the article which was from 103.7 to 100.6 (otherwise known as from 5011 to 4 in linear terms).

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3588 on: March 23, 2020, 04:26:00 AM »
New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict
New Zealand to move up to COVID-19 Alert Level 4 – Eliminate, in 48 hours
Two-staged approach to give people and businesses time to prepare
Level 3, from tomorrow

Non-essential businesses must close
All events and gatherings must be cancelled
Schools will only open for children of essential workers. They will close completely when we move to Level 4
Workplaces must implement alternative working with everyone who can to work from home
No discretionary domestic air travel between regions
Public transport for people undertaking essential services and transport of freight only
 

New Zealand has moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict, for the next 48 hours before moving into Level 4 – Eliminate, as New Zealand escalates its response to stop the virus in its tracks, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today.

“Due to the early and strong steps we’ve taken, New Zealand is fortunate not to be as hard-hit by the virus as other countries but the trajectory is clear. We are under attack like the rest of the world and must unite to stop the worst from happening here,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“If community transmission takes off in New Zealand the number of cases will double every five days. If that happens unchecked, our health system will be inundated, and thousands of New Zealanders will die.

“Together we can stop that from happening and our plan is simple. We can stop the spread by staying home and reducing contact.

“Moving to Level 3, then 4, will place the most significant restrictions on our people in modern history but they are a necessary sacrifice to save lives.

“At Level 3, we are asking non-essential businesses to close. This includes bars, restaurants, cafes, gyms, cinemas, pools, museums, libraries and other places where people gather together.

“Essential services will remain open, such as supermarkets, banks, GPs, pharmacies, service stations, couriers and other important frontline service providers.

“Gatherings, indoors or out, and of any shape or size, must be cancelled. This means weddings, birthday celebrations and other gatherings.

“Workplaces should have everyone working from home. Essential services will stay open at every level, but must put in place alternative ways of working including physical distancing of staff of two metres.

“Schools will be closed from tomorrow, except to children of essential workers who still need to go to work each day including doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers and police. This will be temporary, and schools will close entirely from midnight Wednesday.

“The school term break will be brought forward. For the remainder of this week and through the term break schools will establish ways to deliver teaching online and remotely as quickly as they can.

“Public transport and regional air travel is restricted to those involved in essential services and freight, with domestic air travel permitted in some cases for people to leave the country and to get home to self-isolate. Private travel is allowed.

“I say to all New Zealanders: The Government will do all it can to protect you. Now I’m asking you to do everything you can to protect all of us. Kiwis – go home.

“Today, get your neighbour’s phone number, set up a community group chat, get your gear to work from home, cancel social gatherings of any size or shape, prepare to walk around the block while keeping a two-metre distance between you.

“If in doubt, don’t go out.

“These measures will be in place for four weeks at this point.

“New Zealand is fighting an unprecedented global pandemic and it will take a collective effort of every single New Zealander doing the right thing to give us our best shot at curtailing community outbreak,” Jacinda Ardern said.

Further details available at www.covid19.govt.nz

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3589 on: March 23, 2020, 06:21:05 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-italy-germany-europe-outbreak-cases-meetings-bans-update-latest-news

“On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings,” the paper reports.

-------------------------

Plague Ship

The state of Western Australia on Monday banned passengers on board the Swiss-owned MSC Magnifica cruise ship from disembarking.

Of 1,700 passengers on board the ship, more than 250 have complained of respiratory illnesses. It was due to dock at Western Australia’s Fremantle port as early as Monday evening.

That decision comes days after 2,700 passengers disembarked from the Ruby Princess cruise ship in Sydney harbour, with 48 on board subsequently testing positive for the virus.
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3590 on: March 23, 2020, 06:56:44 AM »
The Chinese hid 1/3 of infected. Real mortality rate therefore is lower than reported:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified

"More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for Covid-19 by the end of February but had no immediate symptoms, a condition typically known as asymptomatic, according to the data. They were placed in quarantine and monitored but were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases, which stood at about 80,000 at the time."

also:

"The approach taken by China and South Korea of testing anyone who has had close contact with a patient – regardless of whether the person has symptoms – may explain why the two Asian countries seem to have checked the spread of the virus"

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3591 on: March 23, 2020, 07:02:17 AM »
Quote
British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread.

Heard this from elsewhere, too, an Estonian doctor group. This sounds like a quite common early symptom. Loss of smell.

El Cid, that's interesting, maybe the Chinese thought they wouldn't transmit the bugger but were extra careful with these mildest cases, how would you record a person who is infectious but won't raise temperature nor cough loudly?  Sick or in full health?
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 07:26:47 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3592 on: March 23, 2020, 07:20:56 AM »
The Chinese hid 1/3 of infected. Real mortality rate therefore is lower than reported:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified

"More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for Covid-19 by the end of February but had no immediate symptoms, a condition typically known as asymptomatic, according to the data. They were placed in quarantine and monitored but were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases, which stood at about 80,000 at the time."

also:

"The approach taken by China and South Korea of testing anyone who has had close contact with a patient – regardless of whether the person has symptoms – may explain why the two Asian countries seem to have checked the spread of the virus"

Does this mean the virus is more contagious than we think?
It also suggests that most people get very mild or no symptoms but when it escalates it does it hard and fast.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3593 on: March 23, 2020, 07:28:15 AM »
I really believe that all schools have to be closed, because social distancing is impossible with kids. But it's hard for everybody. The first week of home schooling wasn't too successful, I have kids in middle school, and the teacher said that it was also for them not so easy. I hope that it will work better. It must be difficult in many families because we received many jokes about it. For some kids it will be an opportunity to have a better contact with their parents, but in France they worry about violence toward kids.
About teenager pregnancy, I believe that the best is to talk with them about it before there is a girl/boyfriend (it means before there would be a temptation so that it doesn't look like an agreement but more like an information). I tried but they never wanted to talk about it with me and they said that they are informed.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3594 on: March 23, 2020, 07:32:56 AM »
Quote

Does this mean the virus is more contagious than we think?
It also suggests that most people get very mild or no symptoms but when it escalates it does it hard and fast.

Let's assume so. That would still mean some 15% get a severe case and a whole bunch gets a regular influenza-type disease. Very bad still, and the complete tracking of the infections is near impossible.
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Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3595 on: March 23, 2020, 07:45:27 AM »
My big worry right now is not the 1st but Africa and the Middle East (i know, i am a racist). They have no chance at all, their whole population will be infected (the only saving grace is their young population). And they almost unavoidably will reinfect the EU and the US eventually.

I beg to differ.
1. Large parts of Africa and the ME have hot or even tropical climates.
This virus doesn't survive long in heat.
Interestingly, countries with high malaria counts, have the inverse situation reg. corona. See attached figure.

2. Poor countries, i.e. all African, and most ME, have relatively young populations, on average. Population pyramids are highly skewed to the young, and with fewer of old age.

3. People in poor countries don't suffer from welfare diseases, that we know are conducive to getting the life threatening outcomes of the corona. Not too many people on blood pressure medication. Not too much of diabetes, etc.


Stephen

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3596 on: March 23, 2020, 08:02:41 AM »

1. Large parts of Africa and the ME have hot or even tropical climates.
This virus doesn't survive long in heat.


But presumably MERS could survive the heat?  Although of course they have snow & cold winters in Lebanon, Syria and Turkey.   
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3597 on: March 23, 2020, 08:03:23 AM »
... (i know, i am a racist)

Phrased like that, it isn't El Cid. :)
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Adam Ash

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3598 on: March 23, 2020, 08:16:04 AM »
...
I beg to differ.
1....

2. Poor countries, i.e. all African, and most ME, have relatively young populations, on average. Population pyramids are highly skewed to the young, and with fewer of old age.

3. People in poor countries don't suffer from welfare diseases, that we know are conducive to getting the life threatening outcomes of the corona. Not too many people on blood pressure medication. Not too much of diabetes, etc.

Re 2: You can find the links yourself, but covid-19 is hitting young people very hard. 

Re 3: Many deaths are now among people with no pre-existing conditions which were feared to exacerbate their illness.

This is not like the  'flu.  Its a fast-acting killer, and in places with next to no advanced medical care facilities, like the slums of big third-world cities, the impact will be devastating.

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #3599 on: March 23, 2020, 09:09:58 AM »

Re 2: You can find the links yourself, but covid-19 is hitting young people very hard. 

Re 3: Many deaths are now among people with no pre-existing conditions which were feared to exacerbate their illness.

This is not like the  'flu.  Its a fast-acting killer, and in places with next to no advanced medical care facilities, like the slums of big third-world cities, the impact will be devastating.

All info I've seen on how young people are affected, is that 'only' those with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure, will perish.

Please provide some valid, statistical proof of your claim in #3.