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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 68

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 110747 times)

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4050 on: March 27, 2020, 02:57:01 AM »
Terry,

No down side. I am now having to advise friends who have tested positive and who are running 102.5F fevers to bloody well get to the hospital.

There are vastly more people symptomatic in the US than the confirmed numbers show. The US is in the deep end of the muck. Trump brought the swamp to DC with him, and his swamp creatures are killing us.

Sam

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4051 on: March 27, 2020, 03:24:52 AM »
3 principal strategies to fatten the curve:

1. Propaganda. Without it Trump fanatics might lose sight of the carrot.  "it's just like the flu" and "but, but, but, the economy" does the trick. Soon you have people wanting to get it to please their emperor

2. Botched testing. testing leads to contact tracing which could have stopped the disease without much fuzz but it would have hurt the market for a bit.

3. The most important part of the plan to fatten the curve. No masks. Mask would have slowed the spread to a crawl, and even let the economy keep going.

The three things above would've saved a lot of lives but it might have lasted many months, perhaps all the way to election day. Nope, that was too slow. Fatten the curve.

Sure they are sending ventilators. Sure they'll make a hospital here or there. But keep spreading as fast as possible so that we are done by April, regardless of the body count.

What a disastrously stupid plan.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4052 on: March 27, 2020, 04:26:02 AM »
3 principal strategies to fatten the curve:

1. Propaganda. Without it Trump fanatics might lose sight of the carrot.  "it's just like the flu" and "but, but, but, the economy" does the trick. Soon you have people wanting to get it to please their emperor

2. Botched testing. testing leads to contact tracing which could have stopped the disease without much fuzz but it would have hurt the market for a bit.

3. The most important part of the plan to fatten the curve. No masks. Mask would have slowed the spread to a crawl, and even let the economy keep going.

The three things above would've saved a lot of lives but it might have lasted many months, perhaps all the way to election day. Nope, that was too slow. Fatten the curve.

Sure they are sending ventilators. Sure they'll make a hospital here or there. But keep spreading as fast as possible so that we are done by April, regardless of the body count.

What a disastrously stupid plan.

Oh I see ... fatten the curve. Trump’s always had a very short attention span (goldfish short), and he only ever hears what he wants to. That explains a lot.

He likes things to be fattened. He doesn’t like things that are flattened. So, of course he heard fatten. Wow. That really does make it so clear now. Thanks Archimid. You’ve cracked the code and solved the great mystery behind the administrations COVID policies.

Sam

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4053 on: March 27, 2020, 04:55:30 AM »
Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2

Quote
Disease spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and airborne transmission) are indicated, supporting the use of airborne isolation precautions.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4054 on: March 27, 2020, 05:52:39 AM »
Terry,

No down side. I am now having to advise friends who have tested positive and who are running 102.5F fevers to bloody well get to the hospital.

There are vastly more people symptomatic in the US than the confirmed numbers show. The US is in the deep end of the muck. Trump brought the swamp to DC with him, and his swamp creatures are killing us.

Sam
Sam
It was the numbers coming out of NYC that shattered whatever preconceptions I'd had.
I hate to admit it but I don't remember where you're from. The perspective from a state which is locked down is probably very different than the view from an open state that hasn't taken much of a hit yet.


When I hear of Musk making great progress here or there I'm forced to remember that he'd be jailed here for the same actions. I don't expect much from Florida, Texas or Nevada - but California should be standing up, shutting him down, and fining him for every minute that he's putting people's lives in danger.
He's a multiheaded Typhoid Mary.


My friends locked up their shops because it was the right thing to do, and because they'd be in big trouble if they didn't. Pandemic Profiteer has a nice ring to it & it is alliterative.


If the US and Europe hope to survive this more or less intact they need to enforce national laws that can break the back of this, or similar diseases. One scofflaw that breaks ranks can ruin a multi Billion dollar quarantine.
The Americans have RICO Laws in place and a frankly terrifying history of asset seizure. I'm unsure if Europe or German law has anything similar.


Stay Isolated. Stay angry at those who negate your efforts.
Terry

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4055 on: March 27, 2020, 05:57:40 AM »
Talks of COVID-19 between China and US (sarc version):

"Hi China, I heard you had this disease a while back."
"Yes, it was quite a bad one, Mr.Trump"
"You know Pingpong Xi, my doctors are saying we got this disease too, but I don't feel sick"
"Well, your doctors are right and you'd do good to listen to them"
"yeah yeah, I listen but you know, they're scaring my people if they are heard by the media. Bad Media. Can't have that."
"Oh, well it is a terrible disease, and people are scared of it here too."
"But my people should be working if they're not sick, that's what my grandpa always said. My doctors want to shut my everything down!"
"Your doctors are right, you should do what they say, Donnie"
"No one but family calls me that, take that back!"
"Sorry, I take that back, Mr. Trump, you should do what your doctors say."
"But I don't feel sick, why should I take a pill that tastes bad? My people not working tastes bad. Clever. I cleverer than you. Best clever. Thanks talking, China, let's do trade. Or trade war. Whatever."
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 06:06:54 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4056 on: March 27, 2020, 06:32:33 AM »
Talks of COVID-19 between China and US (sarc version):

"Hi China, I heard you had this disease a while back."
"Yes, it was quite a bad one, Mr.Trump"
"You know Pingpong Xi, my doctors are saying we got this disease too, but I don't feel sick"
"Well, your doctors are right and you'd do good to listen to them"
"yeah yeah, I listen but you know, they're scaring my people if they are heard by the media. Bad Media. Can't have that."
"Oh, well it is a terrible disease, and people are scared of it here too."
"But my people should be working if they're not sick, that's what my grandpa always said. My doctors want to shut my everything down!"
"Your doctors are right, you should do what they say, Donnie"
"No one but family calls me that, take that back!"
"Sorry, I take that back, Mr. Trump, you should do what your doctors say."
"But I don't feel sick, why should I take a pill that tastes bad? My people not working tastes bad. Clever. I cleverer than you. Best clever. Thanks talking, China, let's do trade. Or trade war. Whatever."

Who are you not to believe in Trump?

He promised to resolve this by Easter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kenolin1/status/1242852430582341639

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4057 on: March 27, 2020, 06:48:33 AM »
Terry,

No down side. I am now having to advise friends who have tested positive and who are running 102.5F fevers to bloody well get to the hospital.

There are vastly more people symptomatic in the US than the confirmed numbers show. The US is in the deep end of the muck. Trump brought the swamp to DC with him, and his swamp creatures are killing us.

Sam
Should they go to protect the others in the family, or to get treatment? I feel that I'd be better home than in an overcrowded hospital.
Etienne

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4058 on: March 27, 2020, 07:25:58 AM »
Terry,

No down side. I am now having to advise friends who have tested positive and who are running 102.5F fevers to bloody well get to the hospital.

There are vastly more people symptomatic in the US than the confirmed numbers show. The US is in the deep end of the muck. Trump brought the swamp to DC with him, and his swamp creatures are killing us.

Sam
Should they go to protect the others in the family, or to get treatment? I feel that I'd be better home than in an overcrowded hospital.
Etienne

They are at day 7 showing symptoms that may rapidly degrade into ARDS. They are in their late 60s. The next three days are critical.

Based on clinical reports, their lungs have likely been shredded by the virus greatly reducing their lung capacity. The deep lung areas are likely filling with fluid as well. And heart and/or kidney issues may be involved. I am not a doctor. I couldn’t and wouldn’t begin to try to assess any of those.

At this point some of the handful of known meds that have been shown to help may be needed. Remdesivir, ...  the only chance they have for those is in critical care. Over the next three days, either or both of them may need to go on a ventilator. Those are in critically short supply. They are needless to say quite scared.

Another friend on the other side of the country in Portland, Oregon visited a friend. They met for ten minutes, no contact. The next day her friend began showing symptoms. A couple of day’s after she did as well. Her friend has now been confirmed positive, yet she hasn’t been able to get tested. She is apparently about day 4. Classic symptoms plus a splitting headache. Worst she’s ever had by far. Scared. Terrified actually.

This is a terrifying disease. Do not underestimate it. It spreads easily and rapidly without contact from people with no symptoms. 

And what is the great moron doing to help? He’s telling Cuomo he doesn’t believe he needs all the ventilators Cuomo says New York needs.  The great manipulator, conman extraordinaire is far out of his depth. Soon he will have blood on his hands. The time has come for both he and Pence to resign and let others lead the nation out of this catastrophe. Donald Trump is a failure. Mike Pence is every bit as bad and equally guilty.

Sam

Addenda: Tomorrow is the big day in Trump’s failed pResidency. The US will exceed 100,000 confirmed cases. Resign bastard. Resign now.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 08:21:56 AM by Sam »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4059 on: March 27, 2020, 07:29:12 AM »
Virginia Pastor Who Said COVID-19 Was Anti-Trump “Mass Hysteria” Dies of Virus

Link >> https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2020/03/26/virginia-pastor-who-said-covid-19-was-anti-trump-mass-hysteria-dies-of-virus/
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4060 on: March 27, 2020, 07:54:45 AM »
as millions get laid off in the USA , their medical insurance becomes history too .. that will really help the situation ... b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4061 on: March 27, 2020, 09:06:58 AM »
as millions get laid off in the USA , their medical insurance becomes history too .. that will really help the situation ... b.c.
That's the most terrifying thing financially in the States.
You've a job, you're insured & all's right with the world.
You get sick and can't work. You lose your job, your insurance goes & all your assets follow.
You recover or you die - but your spouse is homeless & her insurance ended with yours.
Hopefully she hasn't caught the bug that brought you down.


And most people are advised to avoid stress.
Terry

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4062 on: March 27, 2020, 09:19:11 AM »
You've a job, you're insured & all's right with the world.

That's like the ultimate leverage for the employee. A perfect measure to enslave people...
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4063 on: March 27, 2020, 09:39:53 AM »
You've a job, you're insured & all's right with the world.

That's like the ultimate leverage for the employee. A perfect measure to enslave people...


That's nothing.
Wait till you've fathered a lil' darling with a congenital condition that will never be covered by another insurance policy because it's a "prior condition".


Your wages may shrink as your workload increases, but your policy keeps your butt in your chair.
It's only indentured servitude until your baby grows up and marrys some slob who can live with her congenital halitosis. ???
Terry

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4064 on: March 27, 2020, 10:03:24 AM »
...
Remember please that the percentages Oren cites are from reputable literature, BUT that study was based on a 2.3% CFR for the population. We know that the CFR for the hospitalized population is double that. So - double ALL of the numbers in the table.

...
For the US, I suspect that the most likely death toll will be about 5 million. I cannot see it being less than 1 million. The high end is likely 25 million.

The high end comes about from presuming that there is not some large unseen portion of the population that never shows anything other than mild symptoms and is never tested; plus presuming the 4.5% CFR is accurate and representative for the hospitalized portion (who then represent everyone); and that half of those requiring intensive care die as a result of the collapse of the hospital systems when they become over run. That last part adds about 7.5% to the CFR of 4.5%, hence a 12% death rate. Italy is already seeing close to that. And they aren't through the worst of it yet.
...
Sam

Sam, why do you assume that we have a 4.5% CFR in the USA? Would appreciate if you could explain that! Latest data show a much lower figure.

I believe that too many analyses are focused on the natural mortality rate with treatment, rather than on the number whose symptoms are severe enough to require hospitalization which is a far higher percentage than occurs with the flu. Even with the flu affecting a higher count each winter than COVID-19 has thus far, the impact on the hospital system is already far outpacing the flu.

The problem with many analyses and forecasts is that they don't take into consideration the issue of overwhelming of the intensive care units (ICU) in the healthcare system, as seen in Italy and Spain, and as will SURELY be seen in the USA, France and UK in the coming weeks. About 6% of the infected in C19 will need ICU, which is way more than for the regular flus.

In a way, the situation is on one hand that we wish for everything to happen quickly, get to herd immunity in the population (=more than 90% infected for this virus), and then C19 will be just like any other flu virus, as we will not have a vaccine or mass vaccination in the nearest 18 months or so. From this point of view, we want the infection to run freely so we can become immune.

On the other hand, we fear death, we don't want people to die. So we want to slow the infection down, and above all suppress it sufficiently so that the ICU units aren't overwhelmed. If 6% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that. We don't want Italy or Spain.

Meanwhile, the disease continues to progress exponentially in many big countries, e.g. USA.  Inflexion point on the positive exponential growth has still not been established. Meanwhile, efforts to measure and contain it seem to be more linear.

Korea has been very actively testing and tracking infected people. Korea tracing/testing has shown that around 11% of positives proceeded to Serious (=supplemental oxygen) or Critical (=ventilator). About 1/3 of those infected in S/C state will eventually die. That is in a health care system that is NOT overwhelmed. We have much worse ratios in overwhelmed Italy.

I think it's not the best metric to use total cases, because ‘active’ cases have yet to be determined. Now that we know the disease course—5 day mean incubation, 9-10 days symptoms, then either recovery or serious/critical on day 11-12, the best CFR proxy is Fatalities/ recoveries. We have a 3.0% CFR ratio in S.Korea of resolved cases, and we have only 1 %  S/C out of active (unresolved) cases.

Moreover, of active unresolved cases, 6.0 % in Italy are S/C, implying that about 45% of those S/C die and 55% eventually recover in a medical system that is overwhelmed.

These data are all readily available on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/

About USA, we're already getting reports of overwhelmed hospitals/ICU units in some states. And we still have a couple of weeks of exponential growth left. There are 4 million admissions to the ICU in the US every year, and 500k (~13%) of them die. Without ICU beds, that share would likely go closer to 60-70%. Even if only 50% died, in a year-long epidemic you go from 500k deaths a year to 2M, so you’re adding 1.5M deaths, just with collateral damage.

So, on one extreme we have countries like S.Korea, on the other extreme we have the overwhelmed countries. I think any forecast for USA has to take into consideration the issue of the forthcoming overwhelming of ICU units.


Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4065 on: March 27, 2020, 11:37:42 AM »
Long time lurker, first post.

Good overview and summary of papers up to date, commenting on their strengths and weaknesses.

COVID-19: Describing a new disease (Meyerowitz & Richterman)
MGH Division of Infectious Diseases

Harvard Joint Infectious Diseases Conference
March 25, 2020



Twitter:
https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1242811276763582464

Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1shQ8m7kX2qFyj6PByY_DxM37fcyxLjSBojmTpFJN4kU/edit#slide=id.p

Bonus to anyone who can find the HHS/Emory presentation they mention at the end.
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dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4066 on: March 27, 2020, 11:45:31 AM »
Very good data viz here. Log plots (switchable to linear) with lots of fine scale geographic detail and daily parameters by hovering over parts of the curves. Value plotted (cases, deaths etc.) switchable at the bottom of each panel.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 12:14:52 PM by dnem »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4067 on: March 27, 2020, 12:05:53 PM »
I've been thinking of the US as a third-rate third world country for a while. But I now think that's an insult to third-rate third world countries.

Now US = failed state
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4068 on: March 27, 2020, 12:06:09 PM »
...COVID-19 could have infected almost everyone on the planet this year and killed 40 million people

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/pandemic-deaths-could-top-1-8-million-even-with-tough-response-study/

The US is at just over 2 ^ 10 official COVID-19 deaths at this moment (per worldometer).

20 days will bring us to mid-April and at the current rate of doubling about every two days, a death total of 2 ^ 20 ... 1,048,000+

Whatever the real number ends up being, most of the deaths up to that point are already pretty much baked in by actions we have or haven't taken up to now. We may still have a bit of a chance to start to bend the curve flatter a bit after that by the actions we do and don't take in the the intervening time.

US deaths may very well be in five figure territory in 20 days, but not over a million.  There are more considerations and variables beyond a simple exercise in maths.  Will check back in 20 days to see how the actual metric compares.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4069 on: March 27, 2020, 12:09:53 PM »
Welcome to the forum, Sigma Squared. :)
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4070 on: March 27, 2020, 12:19:36 PM »
just announced .. Boris Johnston .. Britain's Prime Monster has COVID-19 .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4071 on: March 27, 2020, 12:40:51 PM »
Let's see how this herd immunity thing works out for him.
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4072 on: March 27, 2020, 01:01:06 PM »
Admirable for the PM himself to take part on the herd immunity human experiment. But why is he working from isolation? He should go and immunize his cabinet, family and friends as soon as possible

/sarc
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4073 on: March 27, 2020, 01:35:19 PM »
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

Latest report from Imperial models the global pandemic using a simpler model than their UK and USA detailed models.

40 million deaths this year if uncontrolled, 20 million with mitigation, 1-10 million with suppression depending on how far the epidemic has progressed before suppression measures are initiated.

Rough numbers because there still isn't good enough quality data on comorbidities, so only age and population structure is being accounted for. You can also download a spreadsheet with the detailed results if you want to look at particular countries.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4074 on: March 27, 2020, 01:53:53 PM »
This is over about 3-4 weeks after we shut down and order all human interaction to occur through masks.  Once everyone is wearing masks and there are low number of cases, furious testing and contact tracing can keep the number of infected low enough for society to continue until a vaccine is developed, as we should have done from the very beginning.

We can keep the number of dead down, at the same time that we eliminate the infection and keep the economy going.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4075 on: March 27, 2020, 02:19:29 PM »
This article in the atlantic looks like quite a good explainer for those of us without the detailed biomedical knowledge needed to fully grasp some of the upthread comments. I'd like to pass it on, but before I do could somebody take a look and tell me how accurate it is?
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4076 on: March 27, 2020, 02:31:36 PM »
Quote
The phrase "life unworthy of life" (in German: "Lebensunwertes Leben") was a Nazi designation for the segments of the populace which, according to the Nazi regime of the time, had no right to live

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_unworthy_of_life

Quote
Trump's death cult finally says it: Time to kill the "useless eaters" for capitalism. Republicans say the quiet part out loud: Americans must die of the coronavirus in order to save capitalism

Link >> https://www.salon.com/2020/03/27/trumps-death-cult-finally-says-it-time-to-kill-the-useless-eaters-for-capitalism/
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4077 on: March 27, 2020, 02:38:56 PM »
This is over about 3-4 weeks after we shut down and order all human interaction to occur through masks.  Once everyone is wearing masks and there are low number of cases, furious testing and contact tracing can keep the number of infected low enough for society to continue until a vaccine is developed, as we should have done from the very beginning.

We can keep the number of dead down, at the same time that we eliminate the infection and keep the economy going.
I suscribe to it. The research video posted above by the new member shows overwhelming evidence that supports this as the only way. Including wearing mask, DIY mask if no other solution.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4078 on: March 27, 2020, 02:50:06 PM »
burqas, niqaabs and hijabs up! Are we on the cusp of male fashion change?
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4079 on: March 27, 2020, 02:50:59 PM »
Guys, for the 100th time. Wearing a mask is absolutely common in China. It had absolutely not the effect to contain the virus. Not at all. You are chasing a phantom!
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4080 on: March 27, 2020, 03:01:02 PM »
I tend to agree that the US is a failed state.  The fact that NYC has not been locked down and barricaded at this point demonstrates that the US is incapable of managing its own affairs.

We need another country that knows how to handle this virus, like China to come in and give us demonstrations.

RIP USA - it was an impressive empire while it lasted.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4081 on: March 27, 2020, 03:08:27 PM »
Guys, for the 100th time. Wearing a mask is absolutely common in China. It had absolutely not the effect to contain the virus. Not at all. You are chasing a phantom!
Yeah but I don't trust your judgement either, ultimately I trust myself and will try to acquire a mask as protective as possible. Better than nothing!

If we all were provided masks, we could make feel ashamed those that don't wear it instead.

Perhaps you would be shouting 'wear mask wear mask! Hey police!!! That guy don't wear mask!'

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4082 on: March 27, 2020, 03:10:54 PM »
 I think if chinese people would have guns, every communist would be shot after one day. I think most chinese people know about the doctors in Wuhan. First they try to cover up everything as much as was possible. And than a few weeks later they lock up people in their houses, with the dead bodies of their loved ones. And how would it come that only the families of party members travel outside China ? Because they take good care for themselfs. And the rest are like dogs.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4083 on: March 27, 2020, 03:22:08 PM »
Guys, for the 100th time. Wearing a mask is absolutely common in China. It had absolutely not the effect to contain the virus. Not at all. You are chasing a phantom!
Yeah but I don't trust your judgement either, ultimately I trust myself and will try to acquire a mask as protective as possible. Better than nothing!

If we all were provided masks, we could make feel ashamed those that don't wear it instead.

Perhaps you would be shouting 'wear mask wear mask! Hey police!!! That guy don't wear mask!'
And BTW it is a two-way protection, actually I protect others more than I protect myself if the mask is the surgeon-type, or a piece of cloth.

We have to go down to the market once each two weeks at least. What if I am asymptomatic and sneeze without mask?

Think, Blumen, they are lying because they don't have the resources.
The day they have masks for all, the news all around 'go get masks to the pharmacy!' 'don't spread the disease!'

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4084 on: March 27, 2020, 03:29:53 PM »
A mask thread was opened, so this stupid discussion could take place there.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4085 on: March 27, 2020, 03:38:36 PM »
Perhaps you would be shouting 'wear mask wear mask! Hey police!!! That guy don't wear mask!'

I would welcome if you wouldn't make shit up about me, ok?

I have, multiple times and clearly stated in which situations a mask is useful, and when it's counterproductive.

My mind is made up and the availability is not a criterion for me. What the experts say is! Nothing else!

You are clearly not an expert, so much is obvious.
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4086 on: March 27, 2020, 04:06:36 PM »
Perhaps you would be shouting 'wear mask wear mask! Hey police!!! That guy don't wear mask!'

I would welcome if you wouldn't make shit up about me, ok?

I have, multiple times and clearly stated in which situations a mask is useful, and when it's counterproductive.

My mind is made up and the availability is not a criterion for me. What the experts say is! Nothing else!

You are clearly not an expert, so much is obvious.

Yeah but I have just watched that review of current research and it's clear: droplet protection is necessary, meaning a simple cloth mask will stop my sneeze from spreading the disease over the oranges in the market. And the virus might persist in small aerosol drops as well so if I can get a mask with filter the better (when/if available).

What's the problem with wearing a simple DIY mask as a minimum? It's not for me, it is for ALL

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4087 on: March 27, 2020, 04:12:49 PM »
I have prepared my snipping scissors. Take it to the #&*$% mask thread!
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4088 on: March 27, 2020, 04:14:58 PM »
A mask thread was opened, so this stupid discussion could take place there.
Stupid? Why the insult?
I think it is stupid not to deal with it or to bury it elsewhere.
But OK, I zip it

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4089 on: March 27, 2020, 04:26:05 PM »
A mask thread was opened, so this stupid discussion could take place there.
Stupid? Why the insult?
I think it is stupid not to deal with it or to bury it elsewhere.
But OK, I zip it
It's stupid because if somebody's mind is made up, it's impossible to unmake it. It just makes for a lot of noise in an otherwise valuable thread.

Like Alexander's constant harping about communists. He'll never change his mind, so no point in confronting him.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4090 on: March 27, 2020, 04:39:16 PM »
Dutch numbers

546 deaths +112 largest increase so far. I assume most are IC patients

8603 confirmed +1172

+341 hospitalisations (total not given so give me a sec)
2151 +341 so 2492.

ETA
https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6040712/112-nieuwe-doden-door-coronavirus-meeste-gemelde-sterfgevallen-tot-nu-toe.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4091 on: March 27, 2020, 04:45:29 PM »
I can't read it, or understand it. It should be people and police from the Hubei province , on a bridge to enter the next province. https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/3/27/n11980618.htm?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4092 on: March 27, 2020, 04:49:23 PM »
A mask thread was opened, so this stupid discussion could take place there.
Maybe I made a mistake putting that thread on the Rest subforum, but calling masks a "Consequence" of AGW just seemed too far a stretch.

Here is the link: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.0.html
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4093 on: March 27, 2020, 04:51:38 PM »
I can't read it, or understand it. It should be people and police from the Hubei province , on a bridge to enter the next province. https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/3/27/n11980618.htm?

When Hubei people tried to enter Jiujiang, Jiangxi via the Yangtze River Bridge, they were blocked by the Jiangxi side; police in the two provinces even broke out.

They had a fight but most people wore masks (no confidence interval since i mad the last part up).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4094 on: March 27, 2020, 04:53:22 PM »
A mask thread was opened, so this stupid discussion could take place there.
Maybe I made a mistake putting that thread on the Rest subforum, but calling masks a "Consequence" of AGW just seemed too far a stretch.

Here is the link: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.0.html
You should have put it in "Stupid Discussions"

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4095 on: March 27, 2020, 04:59:34 PM »
In all honesty, masks has become such a debate here that it's swamping a very important thread. PLEASE folks move all the back and forth on masks to Tom's new thread, readers will be grateful and the moderator will be moderate.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4096 on: March 27, 2020, 05:04:06 PM »
Some COVID-19 Patients Still Have Coronavirus After Symptoms Disappear: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-patients-coronavirus-symptoms.html

In a new study, researchers found that half of the patients they treated for mild COVID-19 infection still had coronavirus for up to eight days after symptoms disappeared. The research letter was published online in the American Thoracic Society's American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.

The time from infection to onset of symptoms (incubation period) was five days among all but one patient. The average duration of symptoms was eight days, while the length of time patients remained contagious after the end of their symptoms ranged from one to eight days. Two patients had diabetes and one had tuberculosis, neither of which affected the timing of the course of COVID-19 infection.

"The most significant finding from our study is that half of the patients kept shedding the virus even after resolution of their symptoms," ... "More severe infections may have even longer shedding times."

"If you had mild respiratory symptoms from COVID-19 and were staying at home so as not to infect people, extend your quarantine for another two weeks after recovery to ensure that you don't infect other people," recommended corresponding author Lixin Xie, MD, professor, College of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing.

The authors had a special message for the medical community: "COVID-19 patients can be infectious even after their symptomatic recovery, so treat the asymptomatic/recently recovered patients as carefully as symptomatic patients."

De Chang et al, Time Kinetics of Viral Clearance and Resolution of Symptoms in Novel Coronavirus Infection, American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine (2020)
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1164/rccm.202003-0524LE

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4097 on: March 27, 2020, 05:05:09 PM »
Rapid Deployment of Open-Source, Low-Cost Ventilator Design
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-rapid-deployment-open-source-low-cost-ventilator.html



One of the most pressing shortages facing hospitals during the Covid-19 emergency is a lack of ventilators. These machines can keep patients breathing when they no longer can on their own, and they can cost around $30,000 each. Now, a rapidly assembled volunteer team of engineers, physicians, computer scientists, and others, centered at MIT, is working to implement a safe, inexpensive alternative for emergency use, which could be built quickly around the world.

The team, called MIT E-Vent (for emergency ventilator), was formed on March 12 in response to the rapid spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Its members were brought together by the exhortations of doctors, friends, and a sudden flood of mail referencing a project done a decade ago in the MIT class 2.75 (Medical Device Design). Students working in consultation with local physicians designed a simple ventilator device that could be built with about $100 worth of parts.

They published a paper detailing their design and testing, but the work ended at that point. Now, with a significant global need looming, a new team, linked to that course, has resumed the project at a highly accelerated pace.

The key to the simple, inexpensive ventilator alternative is a hand-operated plastic pouch called a bag-valve resuscitator, or Ambu bag, which hospitals already have on hand in large quantities. These are designed to be operated by hand, by a medical professional or emergency technician, to provide breaths to a patient in situations like cardiac arrest, until an intervention such as a ventilator becomes available. A tube is inserted into the patient's airway, as with a hospital ventilator, but then the pumping of air into the lungs is done by squeezing and releasing the flexible pouch. This is a task for skilled personnel, trained in how to evaluate the patient and adjust the timing and pressure of the pumping accordingly.

The innovation begun by the earlier MIT class, and now being rapidly refined and tested by the new team, was to devise a mechanical system to do the squeezing and releasing of the Ambu bag, since this is not something that a person could be expected to do for any extended period. But it is crucial for such a system to not damage the bag and to be controllable, so that the amount of air and pressures being delivered can be tailored to the particular patient. The device must be very reliable, since an unexpected failure of the device could be fatal, but as designed by the MIT team, the bag can be immediately operated manually.

The team is particularly concerned about the potential for well-meaning but inexperienced do-it-yourselfers to try to reproduce such a system without the necessary clinical knowledge or expertise with hardware that can operate for days; around 1 million cycles would be required to support a ventilated patient over a two-week period.

Furthermore, it requires code that is fault-tolerant, since ventilators are precision devices that perform a life-critical function. To help curtail the spread of misinformation or poorly-thought-out advice, the team has added to their website verified information resources on the clinical use of ventilators and the requirements for training and monitoring in using such systems. All of this information is freely available at e-vent.mit.edu.

Design and Prototyping of a Low-cost Portable Mechanical Ventilator:
https://e-vent.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/DMD-2010-MIT-E-Vent.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4098 on: March 27, 2020, 05:07:55 PM »
Quote
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;

     UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
       https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary. imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-…
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

———
Quote
Pranay Pathole (@PPathole) 3/26/20, 5:38 PM
Neil Ferguson also accurately adjusted the r0 up which seems to coincide with a lot of recent evidence that this is more contagious than originally thought but much less deadly.
https://twitter.com/ppathole/status/1243291358846046208

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/26/20, 5:40 PM
Yes
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1243291843565158408
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4099 on: March 27, 2020, 05:08:24 PM »
...
Remember please that the percentages Oren cites are from reputable literature, BUT that study was based on a 2.3% CFR for the population. We know that the CFR for the hospitalized population is double that. So - double ALL of the numbers in the table.

...
For the US, I suspect that the most likely death toll will be about 5 million. I cannot see it being less than 1 million. The high end is likely 25 million.

The high end comes about from presuming that there is not some large unseen portion of the population that never shows anything other than mild symptoms and is never tested; plus presuming the 4.5% CFR is accurate and representative for the hospitalized portion (who then represent everyone); and that half of those requiring intensive care die as a result of the collapse of the hospital systems when they become over run. That last part adds about 7.5% to the CFR of 4.5%, hence a 12% death rate. Italy is already seeing close to that. And they aren't through the worst of it yet.
...
Sam

Sam, why do you assume that we have a 4.5% CFR in the USA? Would appreciate if you could explain that! Latest data show a much lower figure.

I believe that too many analyses are focused on the natural mortality rate with treatment, rather than on the number whose symptoms are severe enough to require hospitalization which is a far higher percentage than occurs with the flu. Even with the flu affecting a higher count each winter than COVID-19 has thus far, the impact on the hospital system is already far outpacing the flu.

The problem with many analyses and forecasts is that they don't take into consideration the issue of overwhelming of the intensive care units (ICU) in the healthcare system, as seen in Italy and Spain, and as will SURELY be seen in the USA, France and UK in the coming weeks. About 6% of the infected in C19 will need ICU, which is way more than for the regular flus.

In a way, the situation is on one hand that we wish for everything to happen quickly, get to herd immunity in the population (=more than 90% infected for this virus), and then C19 will be just like any other flu virus, as we will not have a vaccine or mass vaccination in the nearest 18 months or so. From this point of view, we want the infection to run freely so we can become immune.

On the other hand, we fear death, we don't want people to die. So we want to slow the infection down, and above all suppress it sufficiently so that the ICU units aren't overwhelmed. If 6% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that. We don't want Italy or Spain.

Meanwhile, the disease continues to progress exponentially in many big countries, e.g. USA.  Inflexion point on the positive exponential growth has still not been established. Meanwhile, efforts to measure and contain it seem to be more linear.

Korea has been very actively testing and tracking infected people. Korea tracing/testing has shown that around 11% of positives proceeded to Serious (=supplemental oxygen) or Critical (=ventilator). About 1/3 of those infected in S/C state will eventually die. That is in a health care system that is NOT overwhelmed. We have much worse ratios in overwhelmed Italy.

I think it's not the best metric to use total cases, because ‘active’ cases have yet to be determined. Now that we know the disease course—5 day mean incubation, 9-10 days symptoms, then either recovery or serious/critical on day 11-12, the best CFR proxy is Fatalities/ recoveries. We have a 3.0% CFR ratio in S.Korea of resolved cases, and we have only 1 %  S/C out of active (unresolved) cases.

Moreover, of active unresolved cases, 6.0 % in Italy are S/C, implying that about 45% of those S/C die and 55% eventually recover in a medical system that is overwhelmed.

These data are all readily available on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/

About USA, we're already getting reports of overwhelmed hospitals/ICU units in some states. And we still have a couple of weeks of exponential growth left. There are 4 million admissions to the ICU in the US every year, and 500k (~13%) of them die. Without ICU beds, that share would likely go closer to 60-70%. Even if only 50% died, in a year-long epidemic you go from 500k deaths a year to 2M, so you’re adding 1.5M deaths, just with collateral damage.

So, on one extreme we have countries like S.Korea, on the other extreme we have the overwhelmed countries. I think any forecast for USA has to take into consideration the issue of the forthcoming overwhelming of ICU units.

The current CFR in the U.S. is 1.5%.  That is based on the official number of deaths (1295) divided by those testing positive (85,435).  This is a straight forward number, and easily calculated.  The IFR, which is an estimate of the true fatality rate, attempts to determine the total incident of infection by including all those who were asymptomatic or undiagnosed.  The IFR is less than the CFR.  During the height of a disease (like now), the CFR can fluctuate widely as the numbers change on a daily basis.  The CFR was as high as 7% in the U.S. on Mar 3, but that was prior to large scale testing efforts.  The CFR did fall to as low as 1.25%, before rising to yesterday's level.  Tomorrow will likely be different.  Perhaps he is assuming that a larger fraction of the currently infected will die in the near future.  Possibly, he is using China as a reference.  After all, their CFR stands at 4.0.  However that number is higher skewed by the high CFR in the early cases, before the virus was well known.  The Chinese CFR for cases after Feb. 1 dropped to 0.7%.  The Center for Evidence Based Medicine estimates the IFR for Covid-19 at 0.29%.  By comparison, the IFR for the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which had an older population, was 1.1%. 

In summary, there is no compelling evidence to support a 4.5% CFR value for the U.S. with today's figures. 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/