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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 286915 times)

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4250 on: March 29, 2020, 02:14:04 PM »
nanning, I hear they have allowed the 'coffee shops' to re-open there...so there's that  ;)

Here in Minnesota, they are closing off streets next to parks and parkways to allow people to enjoy these areas while also making it easy to keep distance from others when necessary.

My relatives in Chicago and Atlanta tell me the opposite is going on...not street closures, but some parks closed to discourage gatherings there. Seems wrong headed to me, but I suppose it can be like the Florida beaches if swarms of people go all at once?

Stay safe,
wili
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4251 on: March 29, 2020, 03:30:51 PM »
Gove and Hancock claim to have reached 10k/day tested. 

Lasting testing figures show 2433 positive from 6961 tests. (23 hour day due to summer time)

(possibly they shoved swabs down 10k noses, but hadn't actually processed them yet)

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4252 on: March 29, 2020, 04:37:52 PM »
Trevor Noah gets 13 minutes with the one guy you want to listen to on COVID-19
https://news.avclub.com/trevor-noah-gets-13-minutes-with-the-one-guy-you-want-t-1842521786

Dr. Fauci Answers Trevor’s Questions About Coronavirus | The Daily Social Distancing Show
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4253 on: March 29, 2020, 04:40:08 PM »
I think it was on this forum that I saw a study of accelerated clearance of Covid virus in people treated with chloroquine+azithromycin.  I thought that was peculiar, as azithromycin is an antibiotic, not an antiviral.

Turns out, there's a theoretical basis for the utility of azithromycin and chloroquine in this disease:

Energetics Based Modeling of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin Binding to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S)Protein- ACE2 Complex
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Energetics_Based_Modeling_of_Hydroxychloroquine_and_Azithromycin_Binding_to_the_SARS-CoV-2_Spike_S_Protein_-_ACE2_Complex/12015792

The gist of this is that the exact interaction of Covid spike protein, binding to ACE2 receptors has been modeled.  The ability of various molecules to interfere with this binding (and hence interfere with viral entry into cells) can also be modeled.  The combination therapy seems to make sense in this system.

This is exactly the kind of work A-Team was doing in his reports here.  I'd be interested in his take on this.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 04:59:27 PM by SteveMDFP »

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4254 on: March 29, 2020, 04:40:48 PM »
A well-thought out post Grubbbengrabben. I was wondering about the rationale behind the Swedish situation.
I believe 1 and 2 are wrong. Experience in Italy has shown that young asymptomatic people were major drivers of spreading the disease. In addition, not only old people are at risk, and hospitalization rates are high even for young people, which could lead to health system overwhelm.
I hope for your sake that I am wrong.

Thanks.

The quote below is the main assumption made by the Swedish ministry of health and the basis of all their calculations regarding number of hospital beds and ventilators (intensive care). Google translate.

Apparently many other countries use a significantly higher CAR number in their forecasts, and as a consequence they think stricter regulations are needed. As for the hospitalisation rates - I don't know. Do they look wrong? Emphasis added by me.

Quote
For all outbreaks, both regional and national, we have adopted a Clinical Attack Rate (CAR) of 1%. A CAR of 1% means that 1% of the entire population has been clinically infected after completion of the outbreak. We only include reported cases. Based on analysis of external data, especially from China, we believe that 1% CAR is a realistic worst-case scenario. To estimate probable CAR in China and Italy we have doubled today's accumulated number of infected, as if we were at the top today, and divided by population. In this way we take heed that the outbreak may not be over yet. Given today's situation, that would mean less than 1% of the population of Wuhan city gets a clinical infection, in the Hubei region about 0.2% and throughout China 0.01%. When we do the same for Italy, we get a CAR in Lombardy of 0.7%

Severity distribution among infected per age group given target value of
severity among infected and size of the risk groups.

Severity0-1920-6465+
Mild93%83%67%
Severe6%13%26%
Critical1%4%7%

All mild cases are assumed to be self treated. Severe and Critical admitted in hospital. Critical cases are assumed to need intensive care for an average time period of 14 days.
I must admit I was quite in shock reading this.  The severity/hospitalization rates seem reasonable. But a CAR of 1% sounds like something from fantasyland. China and Italy have implemented lockdowns. If Sweden lets this outbreak run wild in (younger) schools and restaurants, I believe asymptomatic transmission will achieve a CAR of tens of percent. Even assuming that for each clinically diagnosed person there are two that were never diagnosed, and assuming that some of the population somehow is remote and escapes, I can't see how the CAR can be less than 10%.
Again, I really hope I am wrong.

This has to be a case of something lost in translation. Or they changed the definition of attack rate. Or they are COMPLETE idiots.
 Sounds more like they estimate the hospitalisation rate.

Where was that information from, Grubbegrabben? I tried to search for it, can't find it.

It may be correct.  There are using the clinical attack rate (CAR), which is a ratio of symptomatic patients to the general population.  This effectively eliminates all the mild cases.  This definition is usually used in medical journals only.  The more commonly used attack rate would include all those infected, including those that are asymptomatic, which would be 5 -10x higher.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4255 on: March 29, 2020, 05:22:24 PM »
I attach a table and graphs of world data for 28th March from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I guess it is difficult not to assume that by next weekend...
- at least 1 million cases of which the majority will be under treatment,
- deaths at least 60,000.,
- deaths as a percentage of completed (i.e. recovered or dead) cases will continue to rise.

The only crumb of comfort is that the rate of recoveries has gone up in the last few days.

ps Stay at home - and even when there remember social distancing.

pps: I'm a beaten up old man.That Spanish health data*** says when it comes to the last line....(i.e dead)

                           Total          Mujeres     Hombres
    Defunción         1044              369        675 (4,7)
*** https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx

https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Documents/INFORMES/Informes%20COVID-19/Informe%20n%C2%BA%2017.%20Situaci%C3%B3n%20de%20COVID-19%20en%20Espa%C3%B1a%20a%2027%20marzo%20de%202020_revisado.pdf
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4256 on: March 29, 2020, 05:45:50 PM »
Opening this thread, Tom wrote: "Let's hope this thread fizzles in a month or two."

Since we're now two + months in, I thought it may be good to tease/humble some of my betters here, just for (grim) fun:

Blumenkraft wrote: "Still thinking this whole thing is more fearmongering than a serious problem"

Walrus replied: " I would agree with blumenkraft, that it is more fearmongering that a serious problem."

Then this curious bit from Avalon: "it appears to be far, far worse than it appears" (but who at least did take it very seriously)

philopek chimed in with: "so yes, pandemic events are very likely among the possible next large scale reduction in world population and can indeed be used as trigger events for economical collapse but:

THIS IS NOT IT"

By the end of January, to his credit, blumenkraft had changed his tune:

 
Quote
   "Still thinking this whole thing is more fearmongering than a serious problem."


OK, i officially distance myself from my statement there.



   " I hope i'm right on that..."


I wasn't.

Most posters here, though did seem to recognize the potential seriousness of this thing right away. So congratulations on that, and on course corrections as more data came in.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4257 on: March 29, 2020, 06:03:28 PM »
California;  San Francisco Bay area

Quote
Judy Melinek M.D. (@drjudymelinek) 3/29/20, 1:05 AM
Some hopeful news. Exactly 2 weeks from Statewide shelter in place order it appears our new case numbers are starting to go down. @GavinNewsom Thank you! #COVID19 #StayHome
https://twitter.com/drjudymelinek/status/1244128421531103232
Image below.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4258 on: March 29, 2020, 06:17:16 PM »
Dr. Fauci will be thrown under the bus as things get worse:

At 4:30 he advises against wiping packages or merchandise. He hesitates to mention how long the virus can last on surfaces and goes on to downplay the threat. "at least 3 hours" he says. 

B fucking S.

We know the virus can last at least 3 hours in the frigging air and more than 24 hours on various surfaces, particularly at low temperatures. Evidence for that has been shared on this thread many weeks ago.

What does this mean? The risk of contagion in a room accumulates in two ways. The number of people exhaling particles into the room and the time of viability of the particles.

The longer people are inside the room, the more contagious is the room. The longer the particles "live", the more contagious is the room.

Masks and cleaning campaigns reduce both issues significantly. Here he is advising against both, or at least not strongly advising both, as he should be.

 Ask Elon, every little gain count. Masks and cleansing campaigns are not small gains.

I believe Dr. Fauci is an honest man being actively deceived by elements inside the administration to control the narrative and trapped in a cult to the leader that will get hundreds of thousands of Americans killed.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4259 on: March 29, 2020, 06:29:49 PM »
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 06:37:25 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4260 on: March 29, 2020, 06:33:26 PM »
^^
Why in the hell would anyone ask Elon about the spread of CV19?


I'm willing to accept that he's simply uninformed or misinformed. If he isn't and he's been fighting to keep his enterprizes busy anyway, then he's a very evil person.
Terry


EDIT] my remarks were a response to Archi's post.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4261 on: March 29, 2020, 07:17:15 PM »
C19 is an exponential problem, similar to getting to orbit.

 In rocketry, one must defeat exponential forces of gravity and drag to gain enough speed for orbit. Because energy is limited efficiency becomes a huge factor. Every gram counts. Every nut and bolt must be as light and as hard as possible. All systems must coordinate to create synergies. The more synergies and efficiencies, the less fuel required to get to orbit.

It is the same for the fight against C19. C19 is an exponential problem. The bigger the problem gets the more energy/information must be spent to solve it. To stop it we must use every efficiency we can find, EVen then we'll beat the system by the narrowest of margins. Failure is equally catastrophic.

TerryM. Don't sign that DNR, this place would be boring without your intolerable nagging.

Gerontocrat, keep your distance and treat everything with extreme care. Take care of your mental and physical health.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4262 on: March 29, 2020, 07:23:47 PM »
Most posters here, though did seem to recognize the potential seriousness of this thing right away.

I didn't recognize it. But then again, I was uninformed and as the saying goes: It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

I've worked hard to become less dependent on the system, but my father's demise yanked me back in, with me suddenly owning four fashion shops that I haven't been able to seel. Basically, this pandemic has now caused my inheritance to go up in smoke, and I'm responsible for 10 other persons. But a lot of people have much bigger problems, so I'm not complaining. And thankfully, I have a garden to cultivate.

Still, there are some things I don't get/trust, like the origins of this pandemic. I'm also curious to see where the breaking point is for governments between economic ruin and preventing health care systems from being overwhelmed. How long do they plan of keeping people indoors? I still believe they are not acting rationally, and with 'rationally' I mean following neoliberal policies of economic growth at all costs. Only the US and UK are consistent in this regard, but they're at the forefront of free market fundamentalism, of course.

All governments are consistent, though, in that they will use this crisis to rapidly push things through that would take years to accomplish (mass surveillance and massive bail-outs).

As soon as there are enough ventilators, we'll be back to BAU before you know it, with Big Pharma and Big Medical cashing in big time.
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4263 on: March 29, 2020, 07:36:43 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4264 on: March 29, 2020, 07:41:02 PM »
Dutch numbers

Deaths 771 +132

Hospital admissions 3483 +529

IC beds used changed from 900 to 970.

Our total of 1150 IC beds has increased to 1600 with 1025 for covid patients rest for other patients.
2200 beds needed by the end of may.

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6041097/dodental-stijgt-naar-771-529-nieuwe-coronapatienten-in-het-ziekenhuis.html
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4265 on: March 29, 2020, 07:59:43 PM »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4266 on: March 29, 2020, 08:02:03 PM »
Dr. Fauci will be thrown under the bus as things get worse:

At 4:30 he advises against wiping packages or merchandise. He hesitates to mention how long the virus can last on surfaces and goes on to downplay the threat. "at least 3 hours" he says. 

B fucking S.

We know the virus can last at least 3 hours in the frigging air and more than 24 hours on various surfaces, particularly at low temperatures. Evidence for that has been shared on this thread many weeks ago.

What does this mean? The risk of contagion in a room accumulates in two ways. The number of people exhaling particles into the room and the time of viability of the particles.

The longer people are inside the room, the more contagious is the room. The longer the particles "live", the more contagious is the room.

Masks and cleaning campaigns reduce both issues significantly. Here he is advising against both, or at least not strongly advising both, as he should be.

 Ask Elon, every little gain count. Masks and cleansing campaigns are not small gains.

I believe Dr. Fauci is an honest man being actively deceived by elements inside the administration to control the narrative and trapped in a cult to the leader that will get hundreds of thousands of Americans killed.

Dr. Fauci is working with an evil megalomaniac malignant narcissist. He is having to shade his professional opinions in egregious ways that are pure bullshit. At the same time, that is allowing him to do some good, such as keeping Trump the terrible from imposing ‘let them die alone’ quarantines in NY, CT and NJ.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/fauci-trump-quarantine-white-house-discussions/index.html

Personally, I don’t think that is nearly enough good to compensate for the evil. I would far prefer that he went on national media, laid out the truth as best he knows it, and denounced Donald the dumb for the evil bastard that he is.

As it is, simply for showing the slightest human reaction to Trump’s stupidity, the Trump supporters have excoriated Dr. Fauci as being some part of a deep State cabal seeking to discredit their dear leader. Screw then. They are deluded bastards one and all.

Sam
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 08:24:04 PM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4267 on: March 29, 2020, 08:14:47 PM »
Going through the data this morning, what is absolutely clear is that one nation, and one nation only has done well in fighting COVID-19. That is China. They have shown the way. Will anyone else follow? They have offered help? Will any nation truly accept it?

Taiwan did good, and has now failed. They have lost control and are now on an exponential trajectory.

Japan has likewise now lost control. Their cluster tracing worked to slow things. It failed.

South Korea stomped on the virus spread. They are holding it down as it creeps through their population. They will have to maintain current conditions for years to prevent it from exploding. That is an economic disaster. I do not believe they can sustain that. So they face a choice, do as China did and truly squash the outbreak, or commit economic suicide that eventually allows the virus to run rampant as it does elsewhere with huge death tolls.

There may be a handful of island enclaves that have escaped (so far). Otherwise, the rest of the world is on variations of the same trajectory - disastrous spread, death, and disability as the virus tears through the populace.

China meanwhile has closed their borders. Controlling ports of entry during the next two years or more as vaccines are developed and fielded will be key to keeping the virus out of China.

Before this is done, it now looks like this virus will kill between 1.5% of the populations in countries like South Korea, and 4% of the world generally, except China, as the medical systems are destroyed globally, ERs are overrun, and the ICU treatment fails under the load. I suspect the total ultimate death toll will end up being about a quarter billion, with another half a billion suffering life long disabling injuries that greatly shorten their lives. The US portion of that looks to be about 12 million dead give or take. The toll in Africa may make these numbers somewhat worse.

Also, these are only the direct deaths due to the virus. The indirect death toll from all those who could not get adequate care as the health systems are overwhelmed greatly raise the death toll from the virus. But they will never be counted or accounted for in the totals.

The economic consequences will be horrific. They will last through at least the next decade and likely the next two or three decades. We are entering a global depression. The death tolls that flow from that, from starvation, depredation, famine, and no doubt wars will also never be properly accounted for or attributed to this virus.

And having failed to stop it, the virus will mutate. There may well be some even more deadly variation yet to come in a second or third wave. That too won’t be properly and fully assessed as being the consequence of the failure of leaders the world over.

Sam
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 08:32:32 PM by Sam »

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4268 on: March 29, 2020, 08:31:43 PM »
Well, I find you quite unfair with Taiwan. +15 is not a lost of control for a country with almost 24 million inhabitants.

If you look at the situation in South Korea or Japan, I think also that it is early to say that they lost the control. Maybe they had a bad day.

Well, if these countries loose control, I guess we'll go all for herd immunity.

Added : maybe confinement is getting difficult to support for some people and this could create some more infections, but if most of the people are careful, this could be just like I said a few bad days.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4269 on: March 29, 2020, 08:32:28 PM »
The coronavirus is starting to hit rural America hard —here's a map of the counties most affected
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

The coronavirus is rapidly surging throughout the United States, with some small rural counties leading the country in per capita rates of confirmed cases, according to a CNBC data analysis.



Rural counties like Gunnison County, Colorado; Blaine County, Idaho; and Summit County, Utah have all been struggling with a recent surge in infections. The counties, located in states popular for skiing and hiking, are now grappling with tourists spreading infections and overwhelming local hospitals.

The sparsely populated areas are ill equipped to deal with the rapid spreads, and mayors and county officials are pointing to a major lack of testing and medical supplies for patients.



-------------------------

Coronavirus hits already struggling US farmers: 'We've stopped saying it can't get worse'
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/28/coronavirus-hits-already-struggling-us-farmers-with-drop-in-prices.html

U.S. farmers have endured a slew of financial hardships over the past few years.

The U.S.-China trade war sent scores of farmers out of business. Record flooding inundated farmland and destroyed harvests. And a blistering heat wave stunted crop growth in the Midwest.

Now, the coronavirus pandemic has dealt another blow to a vulnerable farm economy, sending crop and livestock prices tumbling and raising concerns about sudden labor shortages.

"We were hoping for something good this year, but this virus has stopped all our markets," he said.

Farmers are worried about labor shortages right before planting season starts in April. In an effort to curb the spread, the Trump administration recently restricted immigration from Mexico — a key source for cheap farm labor in the U.S.

"It's not looking good. Product can't be moved. Farmers are very concerned," said Aubrey Onley, a farmer in Perquimans County, North Carolina.

The numbers are grim: Corn futures have declined almost 10%, soybean futures more than 4% and wheat futures nearly 2% in the past several weeks. Futures prices for lean hogs have dropped 12% in the past two weeks and prices for cattle have declined nearly 13%.

Dairy prices have also fallen as school cafeterias and fast-food restaurants shutter, though grocery sales have surged. But milk prices are expected to fall by as much as 25% this year, a serious blow to milk makers already grappling with record low prices.

... Corn farmers are getting hit especially hard. A combination of low oil prices and a sudden reduction in driving across the country has cut demand for ethanol. Corn is a primary input in ethanol production.

Ewoldt, the Iowa corn and soybean farmer, said he doesn't have the capital to continue farming the same amount of land, especially since lenders have less money to provide farmers amid the price drops.

He's decided to farm on less land this year because he can't afford to rent it out the usual acreage, and is already in two years of debt exacerbated from trade war tariffs and climate-related disasters.

"We've stopped saying it can't get worse," Ewoldt said, adding that several years of financial losses coupled with the price drops from the virus have made farm operations impossible.

-------------------------

Asylum seekers in Germany could provide labor needed to bring this year's harvest, said Germany's Minister of Agriculture Julia Klöckner.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-live-news-trump-proposes-quarantine-of-new-york-and-other-hotspots

Germany, along with many other European countries, closed its borders to prevent the curb the spread of the pandemic. With travel restrictions and nationwide lockdown in place, seasonal workers from other countries are unable to travel to Germany and start working in the fields.

"You can't postpone harvest and sowing as you would a concert or a sports event," Klöckner told Germany's Funke Media Group on Sunday.

Klöckner said that she and the country's interior minister, Horst Seehofer, were considering a plan to hire asylum seekers.

"Many of them come from safe countries of origin such as Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, or Montenegro and want to help out, get involved," Klöckner said.

The minister also praised a new internet platform which allows people to apply for agricultural jobs in Germany and fill for the missing labor force. The portal  daslandhilft.de was launched on Tuesday with the support of the Ministry of Agriculture.

"There is a huge rush - there were over 30,000 applications in just the first five days," she said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4270 on: March 29, 2020, 08:33:20 PM »

pps: I'm a beaten up old man.That Spanish health data*** says when it comes to the last line....(i.e dead)

                           Total          Mujeres     Hombres
    Defunción         1044              369        675 (4,7)

What the last ISCIII report has discovered is a big anomaly in Spain deaths statistics. When looking at deceases from all causes past week, the numbers show a huge positive anomaly wrt previous years, clearly due to covid-19. However, the official death count by covid-19 is about HALF that anomaly! The reason of this discrepancy is not clear and is being investigated. Apparently, some people are not being tested after death and they had never been tested (did not get to hospital even???). Others were assigned an existing condition as reason of death (cancer, autoimmune disease, etc). Who knows. The perpetrators are investigating so we probably won't ever know.

So you cannot trust the statistics on deaths even.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4271 on: March 29, 2020, 08:36:54 PM »
Well, I find you quite unfair with Taiwan. +15 is not a lost of control for a country with almost 24 million inhabitants.

If you look at the situation in South Korea or Japan, I think also that it is early to say that they lost the control. Maybe they had a bad day.

Well, if these countries loose control, I guess we'll go all for herd immunity.

Added : maybe confinement is getting difficult to support for some people and this could create some more infections, but if most of the people are careful, this could be just like I said a few bad days.

Perhaps, I am being unfair.  Both countries have a slim chance of regaining control. But it is a very slim chance. The next two to three weeks will be key. If they follow China’s approach, they could regain control. Otherwise, they have lost.

The same holds true around the world. The US has days to make a meaningful difference. But with the current leadership, there is no real chance that anything will be done to meaningfully alter the course. Italy and Spain are likely beyond the point of no return.

Others have a chance, a slim one as well, to make a substantial difference in the outcomes.

The key in all cases is for the leaders and experts to face the brutal truth, and act boldly in accord with what we now know. I won’t hold my breath for that. (That is an American expression that may not translate well. It means - I don’t hold any hope at all.)

There is a very slight glimmer of something, that the US rates appear to be slowing. The timing is right for this to be a reflection of the stay home efforts. This doesn’t fix anything. It only spreads out the damage, lessening the impact on hospitals (still catastrophic) while increasing dramatically the duration of the economic destruction.

Sam
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 08:50:49 PM by Sam »

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4272 on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:05 PM »
The coronavirus is starting to hit rural America hard —here's a map of the counties most affected
The coronavirus is rapidly surging throughout the United States, with some small rural counties leading the country in per capita rates of confirmed cases, according to a CNBC data analysis.

Rural counties like Gunnison County, Colorado; Blaine County, Idaho; and Summit County, Utah have all been struggling with a recent surge in infections. The counties, located in states popular for skiing and hiking, are now grappling with tourists spreading infections and overwhelming local hospitals.

The sparsely populated areas are ill equipped to deal with the rapid spreads, and mayors and county officials are pointing to a major lack of testing and medical supplies for patients.

The best thing to say is "Thank you Mr President". This already happened in Europe, in Thailand... Why not in the US.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4273 on: March 29, 2020, 08:47:22 PM »
New York City to run out of supplies in a week
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-live-news-trump-proposes-quarantine-of-new-york-and-other-hotspots

The mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, has said his city will run out of critical medical supplies, including ventilators, by next Sunday, 5 April.

https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1244247938303434753

-----------------------

California Governor: 170 Ventilators Sent From Trump Administration Were 'Not Working'
https://www.thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490033-newsom-170-ventilators-sent-from-federal-government-arrived-not-working

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said Saturday that 170 ventilators shipped by the federal government to help his state respond to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus were "not working" when they arrived.

... Newsom said that the stockpile of ventilators had been sent to Los Angeles County by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). He noted that a company called Bloom Energy was repairing the equipment. .

-----------------------------

Netherlands Recalls 600,000 Faulty Masks (5:36 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

The Netherlands has recalled roughly 600,000 face masks, which it had imported from China and were distributed among Dutch hospitals. The masks didn’t comply with safety requirements, the ministry of health said to broadcaster NOS.

-----------------------------

Engineering firms have said that the UK may not have enough ventilators when coronavirus cases reach their peak, the BBC reports.

The UK has just over 8,000 ventilators, but it is estimated the country will need 30,000 during the peak of the crisis, which is expected in two weeks’ time. Manufacturers have said they will be unable to meet that deadline.

----------------------------

Dutch GPs are phoning elderly and at-risk patients to check if they are willing to take the risk of dying at home in case they get Covid-19, so that their hospital bed can be taken up by someone with better survival chances, the Volkskrant newspaper reported.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/hoe-huisartsen-nu-de-kwetsbare-ouderen-bellen-voor-de-makkelijke-en-heel-moeilijke-vragen~b627521c/

----------------------------

33-year-old member of the Louisiana governor's staff dies of coronavirus complications
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/29/health/april-dunn-coronavirus/index.html

----------------------------

Fauci Says 200,000 Deaths in the U.S. Are Possible: Virus Update
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

U.S. coronavirus deaths could reach 200,000, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” More than half of the new cases are in New York, he said.

“Looking at what we’re seeing now, we’re looking at 100,000 to 200,000” deaths, “but I don’t want to be held to that,” Fauci said on CNN. “But I don’t just to think that we need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong.”

------------------------

Germany Warns of Possible ICU Shortage (4:45 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

The head of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute warned the country might run into a capacity shortage of intensive care units. “We can’t rule out Germany will get more patients in need than ventilators,” Lothar Wieler told the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. Germany’s number of Covid-19-related deaths has been relatively low compared to other countries.

------------------------

Africa Weeks Away From Height of Storm (2 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

Africa is two to three weeks away from the worst of the coronavirus storm and needs an emergency economic stimulus of $100 billion to bolster preventative measures and support its fragile health-care systems, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

------------------------

Indonesia to Lock Down 30 Million (6:53 a.m. NY)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

Indonesia may quarantine almost 30 million people in its capital and surrounding areas to curb the spread of the coronavirus that’s killed more than 100 people in the world’s fourth-most populous nation.

Police and transport officials conducted drills on limiting the movement of people from the Greater Jakarta area at the weekend, the Jakarta Post reported. The governor of West Java, Ridwan Kamil, said a decision on the lockdown, including in the worst virus-hit areas of the province adjoining Jakarta, was expected on Monday

--------------------------

Iran Sees Outbreak Lasting 1-2 Years (5:43 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

In Iran, fatalities reached 2,640 after 123 died from the virus in the last 24 hours while infections jumped by 2,901 to more than 38,300. President Hassan Rouhani said the spread of coronavirus has slowed in some provinces, but the country may have to learn to live with the disease for one or two years.

-----------------------

U.K. Lockdown Could Last a Long Time (6 a.m. NY)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update

Gove said on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show that the length of restrictive measures will depend on how seriously Britons take government advice, echoing a letter Prime Minister Boris Johnson is sending to U.K. households this week. Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock tested positive for the virus last week.

Asked about the prospect of a recession due to the lockdown as well as the increase in government debt due to emergency fiscal measures, Gove said that the most important thing at the moment is to save lives. The U.K.’s failure to sign up to a European-Union wide effort to buy ventilators hasn’t impeded the country’s capacity to order more, he said.

Fatalities in the U.K. increased to 1,228 Sunday with 19,522 confirmed cases.

--------------------------

The Rightwing Figures Pushing Trump’s ‘Back-to-Work’ Policy Despite Pandemic
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/29/trump-coronavirus-policy-rightwing-support-politicians

As Donald Trump has pushed his shock policy reversal to try to soon get many Americans to go back to work, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, he has been supported by a wide array of rightwing figures, business groups and conservative politicians.

Some of those conservatives have taken the president’s concerns over the dire health of the US economy a step further – suggesting that the inevitable deaths of many people to the virus might be an acceptable cost of doing business in the face of a shocking economic collapse that saw more than 3 million new people register for unemployment. (... straight out of the NAZI playbook)

-----------------------

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4274 on: March 29, 2020, 08:50:04 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 08:58:30 PM by pietkuip »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4275 on: March 29, 2020, 08:51:38 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

China.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4276 on: March 29, 2020, 08:54:05 PM »
This will happen in Sweden too. This disease spreads too easily, by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals too. Sweden is 80% urban or suburban. No chance of continuing business as usual. The spread will boom anytime soon.
They will take further measures soon as well.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4277 on: March 29, 2020, 09:00:41 PM »
There is a very slight glimmer of something, that the US rates appear to be slowing. The timing is right for this to be a reflection of the stay home efforts. This doesn’t fix anything. It only spreads out the damage, lessening the impact on hospitals (still catastrophic) while increasing dramatically the duration of the economic destruction.

Sam

This appears to be the case in several places.  Italy appears to have reached a peak in its new infections and new deaths. They are bouncing around a bit, but not increasing day over day.  Can you explain where you think it might go from here?  The health care system in Lombardia is deeply stressed, but not collapsed. I don't think other areas of Italy are far over capacity.  It seems like the hospitals should be able to now mostly keep up, and perhaps start to get some breathing room if the rates slow a bit more.

Obviously that leaves a long slog to go, but is catastrophe guaranteed?  Can you lay out a time line that you expect to see?

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4278 on: March 29, 2020, 09:03:20 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

China.

China still keeps the people of Wuhan locked up. Food is delivered to them. That works because Beijing and Shanghai have that power in a dictatorship.

But they will need to lift the restrictions. While that Japanese documentary showed lines at the hospital. And their medical officer was not optimistic.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4279 on: March 29, 2020, 09:12:12 PM »
There is a very slight glimmer of something, that the US rates appear to be slowing. The timing is right for this to be a reflection of the stay home efforts. This doesn’t fix anything. It only spreads out the damage, lessening the impact on hospitals (still catastrophic) while increasing dramatically the duration of the economic destruction.

Sam

This appears to be the case in several places.  Italy appears to have reached a peak in its new infections and new deaths. They are bouncing around a bit, but not increasing day over day.  Can you explain where you think it might go from here?  The health care system in Lombardia is deeply stressed, but not collapsed. I don't think other areas of Italy are far over capacity.  It seems like the hospitals should be able to now mostly keep up, and perhaps start to get some breathing room if the rates slow a bit more.

Obviously that leaves a long slog to go, but is catastrophe guaranteed?  Can you lay out a time line that you expect to see?

Italy closed all activity except essential only a week ago.
Spain did yesterday.
The direction of events seem to go opposite to what you suggest.
Triage is in full-fledge, it will be several weeks before there's room in Italian hospitals.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4280 on: March 29, 2020, 09:13:18 PM »
Going through the data this morning, what is absolutely clear is that one nation, and one nation only has done well in fighting COVID-19. That is China. They have shown the way. Will anyone else follow? They have offered help? Will any nation truly accept it?


I've been looking at the data on a Canadian based graphing web page that allows you to select countries and display parameters, and as far as I can tell it supports your conclusion.

https://www.chi-csm.ca/

Scroll to the bottom and pick your graphing choices.

The screen capture below shows the following countries:

Sweden (yellow), Spain (black), Netherlands (Orange), Italy (pink), Germany (light blue), Australia (yellow), Canada (red)

South Korea (orange), China (dark blue), Singapore (upper black), Taiwan (lower black), Japan (light blue)

Y axis, Number of cases per 100,000 population (log scale),
X axis, Number of days since 20 cases

For the bulk of countries on the left, the main question is how far behind Italy are they? Germany (5 days), Spain, Australia, Canada (7 days), Netherlands, Sweden (12 days), etc.

Australia and Canada, for example, are now about an order of magnitude below where Italy was at the same point since 20 cases, but if exponential growth continues this may not be an adequate safety margin, i.e. it takes about 10 days to make up this order of magnitude.

Singapore, Taiwan and Japan are doing better, but as the NHK documentary someone posted showed, this seems tenuous and subject to changing rapidly. South Korea seems to have done best at flattening the curve other than China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/germany-coronavirus.html

This article discusses the low German death rate, attributing it to a lower age infected population (skiers and carnival goers), more testing, better contact tracing, isolating the elderly and perhaps a better overall health care system, but that the low death rate may not last and has been rising recently.

More on Japan: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

Quote
Japan's Virus Success Has Puzzled the World. Is Its Luck Running Out?
The country has not widely tested. Its people are going about their lives, even crowding into clubs that had previous outbreaks. But now Japan is warning of the risk of rampant infection.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 10:19:57 PM by sigma_squared »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4281 on: March 29, 2020, 09:19:40 PM »
My guardian came up with a great idea. From now on I am having my groceries delivered to my home.
And Sam, I suspect war might dwarf disease. India and Pakistan have hundreds of nukes each and are in a Cold War as bad as the US-USSR one ever was. And the last Depression was followed by WWII. Next one could be between China + Muslims against the West, I think.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4282 on: March 29, 2020, 09:22:33 PM »

pps: I'm a beaten up old man.That Spanish health data*** says when it comes to the last line....(i.e dead)

                           Total          Mujeres     Hombres
    Defunción         1044              369        675 (4,7)

What the last ISCIII report has discovered is a big anomaly in Spain deaths statistics. When looking at deceases from all causes past week, the numbers show a huge positive anomaly wrt previous years, clearly due to covid-19. However, the official death count by covid-19 is about HALF that anomaly! The reason of this discrepancy is not clear and is being investigated. Apparently, some people are not being tested after death and they had never been tested (did not get to hospital even???). Others were assigned an existing condition as reason of death (cancer, autoimmune disease, etc). Who knows. The perpetrators are investigating so we probably won't ever know.

So you cannot trust the statistics on deaths even.

Not all corona-related deaths are recorded. Why go to the hospital when you won't get any help there? Dutch doctors are now asking there patients what they want when they get the virus. I know that I would rather die at home than in a sports arena.

The Dutch mortality statistics show the same thing: a clear uptick in the most recent week with numbers, much larger than the officially diagnosed number of corona deaths that week.

Next week's data will go off scale.



From: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4283 on: March 29, 2020, 09:23:22 PM »
I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

Freedom bites everyone in the ass when you grab it when you shouldn't.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4284 on: March 29, 2020, 09:27:35 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

Three Countries Have Kept Coronavirus in Check; Here's How They Did It
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-countries-coronavirus.html

Vietnam. South Korea. Taiwan.

All three countries are placed uncomfortably close to China, the initial epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic that's now swept across the world.

But they also have one other thing in common: They've each managed to contain their COVID-19 infections, preventing the new coronavirus from reaching epidemic proportions within their borders.

Reacting early was key.

South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam each recognized the novel coronavirus as a threat from the outset, and aggressively tested suspected cases and tracked potential new infections, public health experts said.

... Most of the world took a watch-and-wait approach, but not Vietnam, said Ravina Kullar, an infectious diseases researcher and epidemiologist with Expert Stewardship Inc. in Newport Beach, Calif.

"They actually started preparing for this on Dec. 31. They were testing on Dec. 31," Kullar said. "They were proactive, and that I think is a key to preventing epidemics. They were overly cautious, and that really benefited the country."

"They were very open and honest with the citizens of Vietnam, and that really served them well," Kullar said.

....

Elsewhere ... Public health measures like quick testing and contact tracing need to be in place and ready to go by the time states start to lift their lockdowns.

Testing, testing, testing ... PPE, PPE, PPE's
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4285 on: March 29, 2020, 09:30:52 PM »
I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

Freedom bites everyone in the ass when you grab it when you shouldn't.

I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.

Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4286 on: March 29, 2020, 09:36:42 PM »
"They actually started preparing for this on Dec. 31. They were testing on Dec. 31," Kullar said.

That cannot be true. Unless he means taking temperatures.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4287 on: March 29, 2020, 09:38:05 PM »
Going through the data this morning, what is absolutely clear is that one nation, and one nation only has done well in fighting COVID-19. That is China. They have shown the way. Will anyone else follow?

Regarding the measures that China used to stop the virus propagation, I found slide 55 from the Richterman and Meyerowitz presentation helpful in quantifying the impact of travel restrictions and quarantines.

Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1shQ8m7kX2qFyj6PByY_DxM37fcyxLjSBojmTpFJN4kU/edit#slide=id.p

Presentation: https://www.dropbox.com/s/bj0bbvggh1jrnh0/Meyerowitz%20%26%20Richterman.mp4?dl=0

50:15 - 51:55 discussing this slide:

Quote
This is another preprint that looked at transmission dynamics during four time periods in Wuhan.

You can see the number of identified cases by time period, with their model fit, on the left figure.

The first time period was from January 1st to January 11th, when there were no restrictions.

The second time period was from January 11th to January 23rd, when there were no restrictions, but massive human movement because of the spring festival.

During the third time period, which is January 23rd to February 2nd, there was mandatory social distancing, travel restriction, public transport suspension, and closing of businesses.

And finally, during the last period, February 2nd to February 18th, there was the addition of centralized quarantine in hotels, field hospitals, and central hospitals for all suspected and confirmed cases.

The right figure shows the calculated effective transmission coefficient during each time period, meaning the number of further cases that each infected person was likely to infect.

And so you can see that during the first two time periods, when there were no restrictions in place, the effective transmission coefficient was close to 4.

With mandatory social distancing, this fell to 1.26, which is lower, but still not low enough to prevent ongoing propagation of the epidemic.

And finally fell below 1 when a system of central quarantine was implemented, suggesting the possible importance of a central quarantine system to separate infections from the general population.

Wang MedRxiv doi:10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1.full.pdf+html

Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

Quote
Abstract

BACKGROUND We described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China. METHODS Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions. RESULTS The median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. CONCLUSIONS Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4288 on: March 29, 2020, 09:40:51 PM »
Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

You should listen to people like Sam, Sigma_squared, SteveMD, etc. The info is all here in this very thread! Don't they tell a fucking convincing story?
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4289 on: March 29, 2020, 09:57:11 PM »
"They actually started preparing for this on Dec. 31. They were testing on Dec. 31," Kullar said.

That cannot be true. Unless he means taking temperatures.

It was obvious to me back then and I'm not even an epidemiologist.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,681.msg242617.html#msg242617

These countries dealt with SARS before and they knew what was coming.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,681.msg245978.html#msg245978
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4290 on: March 29, 2020, 10:02:42 PM »
Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

You should listen to people like Sam, Sigma_squared, SteveMD, etc. The info is all here in this very thread! Don't they tell a fucking convincing story?

Sam is not convincing, discards data that do not fit in his view of the situation.

A-team was posting rubbish by a quack, got support from several others here (I don't remember names).

Achimid is a mask-fundamentalist. Supported the Texan raid in Mexico!

So, frankly, I am not impressed with this crowd, the wide-spread disdain for experts here. Now for example a rant by someone against Fauci.

I hear the reasoned advice by the experts of the Swedish health authority and I follow it. Would probably also follow it in cases where I did not agree. Would certainly follow local orders.

I have no illusions about the future: different policies won't make much of a difference in the end.


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4291 on: March 29, 2020, 10:09:37 PM »
I too opposed A-teams quackery and Archimid mask fundamentalism. Those are obvious dismissals.

Dismissing Sam is foolish!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4292 on: March 29, 2020, 10:11:55 PM »
Quote
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake . 

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4293 on: March 29, 2020, 10:26:26 PM »
Before this is done, it now looks like this virus will kill between 1.5% of the populations in countries like South Korea, and 4% of the world generally, except China, as the medical systems are destroyed globally, ERs are overrun, and the ICU treatment fails under the load. Sam

Ok, let me make my query more explicit. Italy has been at about 800 fatalities a day for the last 8 or 9 days. Italy has a population of about 60M. 4% of 60M is 2.4M. It would take 3000 days at 800 fatalities a day to reach 2.4 million.

So, is the current plateau a false one? Will something change to make the daily rate skyrocket in the future? That's what I'm asking.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 10:57:13 PM by dnem »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4294 on: March 29, 2020, 10:27:00 PM »
Quote
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake .

Sweden got it. We know that the situation will be much worse two weeks from now. Already one week from now, more changes in behaviour are likely to be advised. There are also legal preparations for emergency measures.

In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4295 on: March 29, 2020, 10:43:55 PM »
Seeing how you don't get it maybe this is more your level.
Watch.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Side_Eye_26_VIRUSES_VS_EVERYONE_09.gif

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4296 on: March 29, 2020, 10:53:15 PM »
This is becoming another of those Neven's branded 'stupid discussions', but @pietkuip, you seem just fine with catching it, becoming a vector, spread it to six or seven, and, for thinking only about yourself, collaborating to collapse hospitals sooner than later.
Not saying you don't do it, only that science and past data seem to support this outcome. If you're OK with it...
Enjoy the canteen.
Take care of you, and maybe your grandpas!

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4297 on: March 29, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »
Seeing how you don't get it maybe this is more your level.
Watch.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Side_Eye_26_VIRUSES_VS_EVERYONE_09.gif

That animated gif is misleading. Would maybe apply to an STD, but not to this bug. This epidemic is more like a forest fire. Removing a single tree does not have any effect whatsoever on the course of a wildfire.

This is becoming another of those Neven's branded 'stupid discussions', but @pietkuip, you seem just fine with catching it, becoming a vector, spread it to six or seven, and, for thinking only about yourself, collaborating to collapse hospitals sooner than later.
Not saying you don't do it, only that science and past data seem to support this outcome. If you're OK with it...
Enjoy the canteen.
Take care of you, and maybe your grandpas!

Parents and grandparents are beyond the reach of this bug.

It does not matter whether I am ok with getting it or not. There is no escape.
If I develop pneumonia, I may choose to die in my own bed.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4298 on: March 29, 2020, 10:59:55 PM »
There is a very slight glimmer of something, that the US rates appear to be slowing. The timing is right for this to be a reflection of the stay home efforts. This doesn’t fix anything. It only spreads out the damage, lessening the impact on hospitals (still catastrophic) while increasing dramatically the duration of the economic destruction.

Sam

This appears to be the case in several places.  Italy appears to have reached a peak in its new infections and new deaths. They are bouncing around a bit, but not increasing day over day.  Can you explain where you think it might go from here?  The health care system in Lombardia is deeply stressed, but not collapsed. I don't think other areas of Italy are far over capacity.  It seems like the hospitals should be able to now mostly keep up, and perhaps start to get some breathing room if the rates slow a bit more.

Obviously that leaves a long slog to go, but is catastrophe guaranteed?  Can you lay out a time line that you expect to see?

dnem,

I wish I had a clue. Exponentials tend to run away rapidly if you don't aggressively control them. That is equally true in nuclear reactors, chemical reactions leading to deflagrations and explosions, and biologic growth. The details are different for each of these classes, but the principles are the same.

Riding on top of an exponential and trying to control it is delicate and dangerous. You have to have intense negative feedbacks built into the system that work at speeds faster than the exponential driver. Humans aren't nearly fast enough. In nuclear reactors this is accomplished in several ways. Yet every now and then the control conditions are exceeded or people intervene to do stupid stupid things, and in nearly the blink of an eye things go all pear shaped at the very best and catastrophically destructive at the worst.

For chemical reactions it is even dicier though with smaller consequences. Riding the edge of a thermal kinetic reaction is scary - terrifying actually. When they run away the result immediately is a BLEVE (that is a terrifying thing you never ever ever want to experience), detonations (well, you likely won't survive that), or if you are really lucky - deflagrations. You might survive that, maybe, with massive experience and a huge dose of luck. Following the initial event, there may be subsidiary events. Flee! And there are often toxic releases that are vastly more catastrophic than the initial blast.

For biologics, well - you are now living through one of those. They are perhaps the scariest of all and have the largest most catastrophic consequences. They are also the slowest to develop. They too may have secondary and tertiary effects and follow on waves of new infections with similar or different properties that evade most of whatever we learned in the first wave.

Riding on an exponential to try to control it goes as you are seeing it now play out with COVID. If you are really really good, brutal, and fast, as China was, you might just control it - if you are very very good and very very lucky.  Staying in control is like riding a bucking bull bare hand on the deck of a small ship at sea in the midst of 150 foot crashing waves from a hurricane while a team of snipers is shooting at you.  Good luck with that. Catastrophe is all but assured.

And that is where we are now. The catastrophes are playing out in over 100 countries. The experts are behind the curve and applying tools honed for mild seasonal epidemics and ill suited to rapidly spreading pandemics. This thing is moving far faster than anything the vast majority of them were ever trained for. This is a run away.  By that I mean it is running away on its own & your best answer is to run away from it as fast as you possibly can, slamming doors behind you as you go.

When people understand things like this, they act accordingly. I was once involved in an actual activation of a criticality alarm at a US Government site (a detected nuclear run away). It turned out to be a false alarm triggered by a technician working on the alarm system - live. ALL of us ran faster than we have ever run in our lives to flee the area. I saw a coworker quite literally jump over a 12 foot fence on the dead run without ever touching it. Stress can cause you do do amazing things.

For this, we cannot run away. There is no "away" to run to. We have to stand and fight. That fight in this case means sheltering in place until the danger passes. But, this will take long enough to pass that some of us will have to brave it out. These are the heroes. These are the emergency workers of all types and kinds from the obvious from line - the doctors, nurses, EMTs, and their support staff - people like the janitors who are heroes in this battle - to clearly visible people like grocery clerks and staff - to the nearly invisible - the postal workers and delivery people, the long haul truckers, the farm laborers that keep the crops coming in, the restauranteurs and others who keep people paid and working in ways no one planned for, and the emergency operations people who work long hours behind the scene working the logistics to make things happen.

Then there are the people who think they are important and who demand praise - and their front men and women. These are not generally heroes, with exceptions like Governors Cuomo and Inslee. Mostly they are buffoons, cowards, conmen, thieves, and idiots like Trump, Pence and three score dozen (now less) of other Governors in the US. Other nations have their equivalents. (corrected)

As to where this goes and what the time line is?.... well that very much depends on the actions each country, and region choose to take, how well they implement those, and how clearly they think the problem through.

It doesn't matter whether anyone thinks they have the right answer. It will be crucial to watch the data, seek the data, and act on that. By that I absolutely do NOT mean the usual scientific methods. Those are mostly wonderful for proving things, though even there they have terrible failings in dozens of ways. What I do mean is using real time data to make real time decisions and to take real time actions. That involves a good deal of estimation and guess work. It will be at least slightly wrong all of the time. Most of the time it needs to be close. And those "working the problem" must constantly be seeing new insights, new information, new analyses to gauge where they have gone wrong, where they and we are vulnerable - to act - boldly and quickly - all the while knowing that you are going to make mistakes. Some of those will be terrible. And you have to keep moving. You cannot stop or even pause for long.

If all of that goes well, you get the outcome China had. Societally that has huge negative repercussions that will take decades to work through. And it too can go all pear shaped in a whole lot of ways. A political revolt to those limitations during the response can lead to utter collapse and catastrophe. Overly suppressing such feelings can result in equally dire outcomes. The Chinese deserve huge credit for threading the needle in this crisis. Will that ultimately work out well? Who the hell knows? That depends on the leaders involved and on the mass of the populace. If the leaders can avoid the tendency toward authoritarianism - perhaps. If the public can be patient and do their part - perhaps.

The West lacks many of the tools the Chinese had. Can we lead people by example to get them to adhere tightly enough to what is needed to succeed? I sincerely doubt that. One need only look to Donald Trump's followers to see that in spite of direct evidence they believe insane things and act on those beliefs. You can see some of that here.

Desires and core beliefs have to change to succeed. I do not see that happening.

As a consequence, I suspect that most of the world will either let the virus mostly run free with an enormous death toll and financial and economic consequences, OR they will try to ride herd for a time, then ultimately give up (a la Donald Trump deciding to let up before Easter). Depending on how long that takes or how quickly, that too will have even more devastating effects.

Ultimately what is likely to bring it to an end is either of two things.

1) The virus burns itself out having infected 90% of the population. That leaves behind the huge death tolls that are now so obvious.

2) Vaccines are successfully developed and deployed. I do not see that happening in less than a year.

Some nations and places will no doubt try other strategies. And we will ge two see how effective those are and what consequences they bring with them.

One such that seems likely is having everyone over a certain age (55-65) ordered to shelter and stay sheltered for at least six months, likely longer. And then allowing the rest of the nation to intentionally get the disease to try to burn it out of the population through herd immunity. They then also support the older population by bringing things to them while they are isolated.

Would that work? Who the hell knows? But I can envisage some nation trying it.

In the mean time, we can work like hell to try to soften the blow and limit the damage.

Sam
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 01:40:21 AM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4299 on: March 29, 2020, 11:03:28 PM »
Before this is done, it now looks like this virus will kill between 1.5% of the populations in countries like South Korea, and 4% of the world generally, except China, as the medical systems are destroyed globally, ERs are overrun, and the ICU treatment fails under the load. Sam

Ok, let me make my query more explicit. Italy has been at about 800 fatalities a day for the last 8 or 9 days. Italy has a population of about 60M. 4% of 60M is 2.4M. It would take 3000 days at 800 fatalities a day to reach 2.4 million.

So, is the current plateau a false one? Will something change to make the daily rate skyrocket in the future? That's what I'm asking.

I suspect it is a little of both. They are working like hell to curb the thing. That is a part of the plateau. No doubt reporting problems are also a part.

But, how long can they keep up this level of control? Is the control tight enough to stop the spread?

If it isn't tight enough (a la China), then the first question is only a matter of timing. When the controls are relaxed even a little the deaths surge. If the controls are held then for the next 12-18 months things stay as they are with the enormous carnage continuing.

Sam