Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 246910 times)

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4300 on: March 29, 2020, 11:04:57 PM »
In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

So - cursing offends you. But the huge death tolls don't. Man that is quite the set of values and priorities you have.

Sam

The Walrus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 445
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4301 on: March 29, 2020, 11:07:47 PM »
Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

You should listen to people like Sam, Sigma_squared, SteveMD, etc. The info is all here in this very thread! Don't they tell a fucking convincing story?

Sam is not convincing, discards data that do not fit in his view of the situation.

A-team was posting rubbish by a quack, got support from several others here (I don't remember names).

Achimid is a mask-fundamentalist. Supported the Texan raid in Mexico!

So, frankly, I am not impressed with this crowd, the wide-spread disdain for experts here. Now for example a rant by someone against Fauci.

I hear the reasoned advice by the experts of the Swedish health authority and I follow it. Would probably also follow it in cases where I did not agree. Would certainly follow local orders.

I have no illusions about the future: different policies won't make much of a difference in the end.

I stand by your posts.  There are many here who are overly pessimistic - not just about the virus, but many other threads as well.  Based on these posters, one would think that all the experts in the world are conspiring to hide the truth about this virus from the public.  If these posters had some data, information, or other compelling argument, then they might be somewhat believable.  It appears to be just another case of one poster outdoing another with a  higher number of deaths, without anything to back up their claim.  Yes, the virus is spreading rapidly, ad that is a real concern.  However, the virus cannot continue to grow exponentially.  It did not in China or South Korea, and appears to be nearing a peak in Italy. 

I question the motives behind those spreading gloom and doom.

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4302 on: March 29, 2020, 11:11:17 PM »
In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

So - cursing offends you. But the huge death tolls don't. Man that is quite the set of values and priorities you have.

Sam

At least your personal insults were uncharacteristically concise!

It is just that I don't find cursing or insults terribly convincing.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2050
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1146
  • Likes Given: 806
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4303 on: March 29, 2020, 11:16:00 PM »
For this, we cannot run away. There is no "away" to run to.

But time will make it ok. With global warming that is not the case.

We have to go on making food and many other things so we cannot all sit home. Yes there is a bigger chance you die then in a normal year but for most it is still not that big.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4304 on: March 29, 2020, 11:20:36 PM »
Quote
However, the virus cannot continue to grow exponentially.  It did not in China or South Korea, and appears to be nearing a peak in Italy. 
Only after lock down .
You don't seem to get that actions have results.
On one hand you are minimizing the threat on the other you are invoking places that are not and are taking drastic actions.
Not joined up thinking.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3371
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2016
  • Likes Given: 263
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4305 on: March 29, 2020, 11:25:10 PM »
German state minister kills himself as coronavirus hits economy
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/german-state-minister-kills-coronavirus-hits-economy-200329165242615.html

The finance minister of Germany's Hesse state has committed suicide apparently after becoming "deeply worried" over how to cope with the economic fallout from the coronavirus, state premier Volker Bouffier said.

Thomas Schaefer, 54, was found dead near a railway track on Saturday. The Wiesbaden prosecution's office said they believe he died by suicide.

(... will this be counted as a coronavirus death?)

---------------------------------

Trump says hospitals not using ventilators will have to release them
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/trump-weighs-coronavirus-lockdown-york-live-updates-200328234401911.html

US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that hospitals not using ventilators must release them and that there was hoarding of the devices.

--------------------------------

Trump touts himself 'ratings hit' amid coronavirus pandemic

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/trump-weighs-coronavirus-lockdown-york-live-updates-200328234401911.html

United States President Donald Trump has taken to Twitter to highlight the viewership ratings of his near daily coronavirus press briefings.

Trump had abandoned the custom of having regular press briefings at the White House, but brought them back this month to update the public on his coronavirus task force (... in lieu of election rallies).

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244320570315018240



--------------------------------

Hundreds at church flout COVID-19 gatherings ban
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/trump-weighs-coronavirus-lockdown-york-live-updates-200328234401911.html

Hundreds of people flouted Louisiana's COVID-19 ban on gatherings, coming on buses and in personal vehicles to the first of three Sunday services at their church a day after New Orleans police broke up a funeral gathering of about 100 people.

An estimated 500 people of all ages filed inside the mustard-yellow and beige Life Tabernacle church in Central, a city of nearly 29,000 outside Baton Rouge.

More than 3,300 Louisiana residents have been diagnosed with the disease caused by a new coronavirus, and nearly 140 of them have died.

--------------------------------

Iraqi Shia pilgrims returning from Syria test positive for coronavirus: officials

Some Shia pilgrims returning to Iraq from Syria have tested positive for coronavirus, raising concern that such pilgrim travel could be a source for a larger spread of the disease around the country, a senior Iraqi official and health officials said.

Iraq has recorded 547 coronavirus cases and 42 deaths to date, most of them in the past week.

Health authorities said there were at least 11 cases of coronavirus in the Shia holy city of Karbala among pilgrims who returned last week from Syria after visiting a Shia shrine there, according to the governor of Karbala.

---------------------------

Saudi seizes 5 million hoarded masks as death toll doubles
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/trump-weighs-coronavirus-lockdown-york-live-updates-200328234401911.html

Saudi authorities seized more than five million medical masks that were illegally stockpiled amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The commerce ministry seized 1.17 million masks from a private store in Hail, northwest of the capital, after authorities Wednesday confiscated more than four million masks stored in a facility in the western city of Jeddah in violation of commercial regulations, the official Saudi Press Agency reported.

The ministry said people behind such activities would be prosecuted, and the confiscated masks would be redistributed to the open market.

------------------------------



-------------------------------

An emergency field hospital is now being constructed in Manhattan’s Central Park, local news station NY1 reports.
https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/03/29/emergency-hospital-being-constructed-in-central-park?cid=twitter_NY1

The 68-bed facility is located across from Mt Sinai Hospital’s location in the Upper East Side neighborhood. It will feature a “respiratory care unit with ICU capability,” and is due to be “fully operational” by Tuesday morning, NY1 said.

... Nurses at Mt Sinai West, another Mt Sinai hospital that’s across Manhattan, posted a now-viral photo to social media showing them wearing garbage bags due to a lack of protective gear. Kious Kelly, an assistant nursing manager there, died earlier this week after contracting coronavirus.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tomkeene/status/1244322709082902528

-----------------------------

More coronavirus troubles for the cruise industry with news on Sunday that 14 crew members aboard Royal Caribbean’s Oasis of the Seas tested positive and were unloaded in Miami.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241598366.html

The Miami Herald obtained a crew member’s recording of the captain making the announcement over the vessel’s public address system on Saturday.

The vessel, like numerous others since the industry shut down earlier this month, is currently at anchor off the Bahamas with only crew aboard. The last of its passengers disembarked in Miami on 15 March, the newspaper said, before the ship sailed for the Bahamas.

“At the moment, we have 14 that have tested positive for Covid-19 onboard the Oasis of the Seas out of all we have tested,” the captain said in the recording, according to the Herald.

It reported that the ship made another short stopover in Miami on 24 March to let some non-essential workers off, then departed again later that day.

On Thursday, some passengers who were on the ship’s most recent cruise received an email from Royal Caribbean advising them that an unidentified person aboard the voyage that began 8 March had tested positive for Covid-19. The email recommended the passengers quarantine themselves for 14 days.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 252
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4306 on: March 29, 2020, 11:37:57 PM »
Ok, thanks for your honest responses, Sam. I will note that many voices in the media and among what I will called "the recognized experts" are advancing the narrative that getting to that first plateau is "great news" and evidence that there is clear light at the end of the tunnel. The standard narrative is that once the big first flush of cases subsides a bit and the daily multiplier starts dropping from say 1.4x to 1.2x, the "worst is behind us".

In no way saying this is right, only that it is very widely stated.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 822
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4307 on: March 30, 2020, 12:16:54 AM »
Church in the age of COVID-19.  ;)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4308 on: March 30, 2020, 12:40:44 AM »
For those of you who like neat dynamic graphics;

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

If you scroll down you'll see an entropy button on the left.  I tried turning it off but my room stayed messy and the universe kept expanding so I don't think that it works.
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4309 on: March 30, 2020, 12:42:05 AM »
Ok, thanks for your honest responses, Sam. I will note that many voices in the media and among what I will called "the recognized experts" are advancing the narrative that getting to that first plateau is "great news" and evidence that there is clear light at the end of the tunnel. The standard narrative is that once the big first flush of cases subsides a bit and the daily multiplier starts dropping from say 1.4x to 1.2x, the "worst is behind us".

In no way saying this is right, only that it is very widely stated.

As in war there are battles and campaigns and fronts in this struggle too. This plateau is a victory in a battle. It doesn’t mark the end of the war. There is a long way to go. As with war, winning a battle can lead to over confidence resulting in losses and setbacks.

Just as in war there are tremendous logistical issues, tactical issues and strategic issues still ahead.

Sam

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 144
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4310 on: March 30, 2020, 12:43:53 AM »
Was there ever a more perfect petri dish for human disease development than a cruise ship?  Well maybe a refugee camp but a cruise ship runs a close second.

Speaking of regugee camps, I am terribly worried about what might be happening inside those camps in Syria, Jordan, turkey and Europe, but there is no news anywhere.
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 822
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4311 on: March 30, 2020, 01:42:03 AM »
Quote
KUNGFU.AI (@kungfuai) 3/17/20, 3:55 PM
As part of our AI for Good efforts, we analyzed more than 19.95M tweets to understand the spread of Coronavirus disinformation and discovered Russian news sites are perpetuating some of it. Read more here:

Tracking Coronavirus Disinformation on Twitter
https://www.kungfu.ai/tracking-coronavirus-disinformation-on-twitter/


https://twitter.com/kungfuai/status/1240003778012753920
Rt.com is Russia Today.  It and sputniknews.com are Russian propaganda outlets.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3371
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2016
  • Likes Given: 263
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4312 on: March 30, 2020, 01:44:15 AM »
Church in the age of COVID-19.  ;)

I don't care if it rains or freezes
Long as I've got my plastic Jesus
Ridin' on the dashboard of my car
Through my trials and tribulations
And my travels through the nation
With my plastic Jesus I'll go far

Ridin' down the thoroughfare
With a nose up in the air
A wreck may be ahead
But he don't mind
Trouble comin', he don't see
He just keeps his eye on me
And any other thing that lies behind

When I'm in a traffic jam
He don't care if I say "damn"
I can let all my curses roll
'Cause Jesus Plastico doesn't hear
'Cause he has a plastic ear
The man who invented plastic
Saved my soul

An if I weave around at night
Policemen think I'm very tight
They never find my bottle
Though they ask
'Cause plastic Jesus shelters me
For his head comes off, you see
He's hollow and I use him like a flask

Whoa oh oh
Save me

I said, with my plastic Jesus (when I'm goin' fornicatin')
(I've got my ceramic Satan)
Help me, Jesus (sittin' on the dashboard of my car)
With my plastic Jesus (women know I'm on the level)
(Thanks to the wide-eyed stoneware devil)
Sneerin' from the dashboard of my car

I don't care if it's dark or scary
Long as I got magnetic Mary
Ridin' on the dashboard of my car
I feel that I'm protected amply
I've got the love of the whole damn family
Ridin' on the dashboard of my car



Don Imus a.k.a. 'Rev. Billy Sol Hargis' did it better  :)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5523
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 737
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4313 on: March 30, 2020, 02:05:10 AM »
Video from a ICU doctor: Follow the rules

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YitWZj9QhdQ&feature=youtu.be

sidd

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4314 on: March 30, 2020, 02:27:08 AM »
My guardian came up with a great idea. From now on I am having my groceries delivered to my home.
And Sam, I suspect war might dwarf disease. India and Pakistan have hundreds of nukes each and are in a Cold War as bad as the US-USSR one ever was. And the last Depression was followed by WWII. Next one could be between China + Muslims against the West, I think.

You just as easily say "Christian" nations verse the rest

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 499
  • Likes Given: 365
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4315 on: March 30, 2020, 02:40:27 AM »
if there were any 'Christian' nations they would not be involved in war .. or even be armed .. :) b.c.

ps .. unless of course , with a plastic Jesus !
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 02:46:48 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4316 on: March 30, 2020, 02:45:00 AM »
if there were any 'Christian' nations they would not be involved in war .. or even be armed .. :) b.c.

Same can be said of most religions.... Islam included.... and yet, here we are.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 822
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4317 on: March 30, 2020, 03:15:07 AM »
Earlier Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN"s "State of the Union" that he anticipates that the coronavirus could kill 100,000 to 200,000 Americans while infecting "millions" of others, although he said the outbreak is difficult to model, as it is "such a moving target."

Trump extends social distancing guidelines to April 30, predicts 'great things' by June 1
Trump last week said he wanted to see the much of the country opening back up by Easter.
March 29, 2020, 6:27 PM EDT
Quote
President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he's extending his administration's guidelines on social distancing during the COVID-19 outbreak until April 30.

Trump said last week that he wanted to see much of the country return to normal by Easter, April 12, despite warnings from top health experts that easing the guidelines too soon could cause widespread deaths and economic damage.

Trump said Friday that he would consult with his administration's top medical experts on whether to extend or change the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

But on Sunday, Trump said that the Easter target date was "just an aspiration" and that he expects "great things to be happening" by June 1. Instead, Trump said he believes Easter will mark "the peak number, and it should start coming down, hopefully very substantially at that point."

Trump said his administration felt Easter "was too soon" and "we can't take a chance."

Instead, Trump said he felt June 1 would mark "the bottom of the hill." ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1171536
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 902
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4318 on: March 30, 2020, 03:31:34 AM »
Onward Christian Soldiers??


There is only one God that deserves your fealty, our worship, your devotion and your contributions.


May his noodly appendages slowly bring you to rapture.
Ramen
Terry


vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3371
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2016
  • Likes Given: 263
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4319 on: March 30, 2020, 04:21:41 AM »
Bosses Speed Up Automation as Virus Keeps Workers Home
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/bosses-speed-up-automation-as-virus-keeps-workers-home

Almost half of company bosses in 45 countries are speeding up plans to automate their businesses as workers are forced to stay at home during the coronavirus outbreak.

Some 41% of respondents in a survey by the auditing firm EY said they were investing in accelerating automation as businesses prepared for a post-crisis world.



The news comes just days after figures showing that 3.3 million people have filed for unemployment in the US. That is by far the highest number ever recorded, and a jump from less than 300,000 the week before. In the UK, 477,000 people applied for universal credit in just nine days.

“The human cost is the most tragic aspect of this crisis, not only in terms of the lives lost, but also the number of livelihoods at risk,” said Steve Krouskos at EY.



https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1392.msg246933.html#msg246933
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 902
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4320 on: March 30, 2020, 04:34:13 AM »
Church in the age of COVID-19.  ;)


Race Your Engine
We need more communal wine


Honk in time with flashers
When's the intermission?


The FSM welcomes Automated Automotive Adoration!
Ramen
Terry

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5539
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1720
  • Likes Given: 1609
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4321 on: March 30, 2020, 05:44:57 AM »
Obviously that leaves a long slog to go, but is catastrophe guaranteed?  Can you lay out a time line that you expect to see?

dnem,

I wish I had a clue.

...

As a consequence, I suspect that most of the world will either let the virus mostly run free with an enormous death toll and financial and economic consequences, OR they will try to ride herd for a time, then ultimately give up (a la Donald Trump deciding to let up before Easter). Depending on how long that takes or how quickly, that too will have even more devastating effects.

Ultimately what is likely to bring it to an end is either of two things.

1) The virus burns itself out having infected 90% of the population. That leaves behind the huge death tolls that are now so obvious.

2) Vaccines are successfully developed and deployed. I do not see that happening in less than a year.

Some nations and places will no doubt try other strategies. And we will ge two see how effective those are and what consequences they bring with them.

One such that seems likely is having everyone over a certain age (55-65) ordered to shelter and stay sheltered for at least six months, likely longer. And then allowing the rest of the nation to intentionally get the disease to try to burn it out of the population through herd immunity. They then also support the older population by bringing things to them while they are isolated.

Would that work? Who the hell knows? But I can envisage some nation trying it.

In the mean time, we can work like hell to try to soften the blow and limit the damage.

Sam

Thank you Sam for this and other thoughtful posts, painting the oncoming catastrophe.
I keep trying to think what could make the expected catastrophe go away, and I don't mean actions in this sense, but what major piece of data could turn out to be the crucial factor that makes actual reality less dire than the predictions. IMHO the direr the predictions, the more important this thought exercise becomes.
In other words - where could you be wrong in your predictions?
The only factor I can find so far that could make a large difference is the number of asymptomatic cases. If if turns out that for each diagnosed case there are 10 or 20 undiagnosed mild cases that go nowhere and generate immunity, then the total fatalities and total hospitalizations should be much lower than expected in the dire scenario, and the disease will peak much earlier as it runs out of available hosts. How sure are we of this factor?

Other factors that keep being thrown around:
The climate or weather or seasons - doesn't seem so far to make much of a difference, looking at countries around the world. but bears to keep an eye on.
An effective treatment - from what I've seen so far there is no magic bullet in existence. This will take time and will likely be available only after the main global wave of fatalities is over.
An effective and safe vaccine - as above, this will take time and will likely be available only after the main global wave of fatalities is over.
Variations between populations - that the Italians and the Chinese and the Americans are more susceptible due to pollution and malnutrition - doesn't seem to bear out so far. Nearly all countries exhibit the same data trajectory.

I would love to hear your and others' input on this.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 344
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4322 on: March 30, 2020, 05:58:08 AM »
Sorry if this has already been posted. This is Osterholm, a virologist who saw this coming and tried to warn the world with his recent book The Deadliest Enemy:


Quote
...A middle-ground approach [between permanent shut down and going back to normal]  is the only realistic one...

...Our leaders need to begin by stating a number of hard truths about our situation. The first is that no matter what we do at this stage, numerous hospitals in the United States will be overrun...

...The second hard truth is that at this stage, any public health response that counts on widespread testing in the United States is doomed to fail....

Much better, instead, to immediately gear up for epidemic intelligence, based on techniques used for many decades. Among those is so-called illness surveillance, in which epidemiologists survey a sample of doctors’ offices in a given geographic region each day to learn how many patients sought care for illnesses with symptoms of fever, cough and muscle aches. The increasing or decreasing occurrence of patients with these symptoms provides a reliable estimate of influenza activity during the winter months — or now, the incidence of Covid-19.

A third hard truth is that shortages of personal protective equipment — particularly N-95 masks — for health care workers will only get worse in the United States as global need continues to rise precipitously...

More than anything, what the United States needs right now is for the president to undertake an intellectual Manhattan Project: gather the best minds in public health, medicine, medical ethics, catastrophe preparedness and response; political leadership; and private-sector manufacturing and the pharmaceutical industry....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-testing-shortages.html
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 344
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4323 on: March 30, 2020, 06:08:43 AM »
Actually, the more relevant piece by Osterholm to this particular discussion is in the WaPo from March 21st "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure" But it's behind a paywall (I thought WaPo wasn't doing that for covid related pieces! )

If anyone can get a copy of all or some of it, that would be appreciated.

ETA: Here's the paragraph that seems to be the crucial one, from an article attempting to refute his thesis:

Quote
"We are in uncharted territory,” he wrote. “But the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and run society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.”

I was surprised to hear this from this source (first heard it on the radio). Is it as illegitimate as this article in which it is quoted makes it seem? https://larouchepub.com/pr/2020/20200327_Osterholm_Infected.html

Here's another quote from a (conservative) source that is supportive of Osterholm's stance:

Quote
“We don’t, for example, have good data on the real impact of closing public and private K-12 schools on the spread of covid-19.”

Hong Kong closed schools, but Singapore did not, and they both experienced similar positive outcomes relative to the European countries
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 06:17:30 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4324 on: March 30, 2020, 06:22:45 AM »
Thank you Sam for this and other thoughtful posts, painting the oncoming catastrophe.
I keep trying to think what could make the expected catastrophe go away, and I don't mean actions in this sense, but what major piece of data could turn out to be the crucial factor that makes actual reality less dire than the predictions. IMHO the direr the predictions, the more important this thought exercise becomes.

In other words - where could you be wrong in your predictions?

This is crucial. It is a huge part of figuring out what is real, and what is wrong. It is also crucial for finding vulnerabilities to try change the course of events in beneficial ways, and to avoid horrible paths. I would love to be wrong!

Quote
The only factor I can find so far that could make a large difference is the number of asymptomatic cases. If if turns out that for each diagnosed case there are 10 or 20 undiagnosed mild cases that go nowhere and generate immunity, then the total fatalities and total hospitalizations should be much lower than expected in the dire scenario, and the disease will peak much earlier as it runs out of available hosts. How sure are we of this factor?

This would be wonderful if it were true. And a lot of folks want it to be true. Wanting doesn’t make it so.  We have extremely little data about this so far. The two data points we have suggest a ~65:35 or ~50:50 of non-hospital vs. hospital cases. We will know more in the future. But for now, it is crucial we not bet on such speculation. The downside risk of horrible outcomes makes making any assumption along these lines extremely dangerous. Even taking the 65:35 ratio as a guide is quite dangerous. It may lead decision makers to take less strenuous actions that that and we cannot recover from.

We also have no data on what the disease course or severity is for the non hospitalized portion of the infected population. They may have less disease (mostly due to age and health), or they may be very similar to the hospitalized portion.

We seriously need more data here. Gathering it is difficult.

Also, it is common for some fraction of the population to be relatively invulnerable to various diseases. Often the why of that is not known. In the case of norovirus, people who genetically lack a particular enzyme are wholly unaffected. The virus cannot get into their cells. There might be some portion of the population that is invulnerable or natively immune to this virus. I have seen no data to suggest this is true though.

Quote
Other factors that keep being thrown around:
The climate or weather or seasons - doesn't seem so far to make much of a difference, looking at countries around the world. but bears to keep an eye on.

This is possible, but seems highly doubtful. If it were true, we would expect to see major differences in countries based on their latitude and current weather. Those don’t seem to be at all apparent.

Quote
An effective treatment - from what I've seen so far there is no magic bullet in existence. This will take time and will likely be available only after the main global wave of fatalities is over.

I actually have more hope here. The supercomputer modeling work is very promising. A number of likely existing compounds have been identified. Quercitin, Luteolin, and Yerba Santa, plus several prescription drugs with low toxicities and side effects are promising starts. Azithromycin alone or in combination with Hydroxychloroquine also may play a role.

The prescription IL-6 inhibitor Tocilizumab looks extremely promising for critical patients. Other IL-6 inhibitors may also be hugely important.

Remdesivir and Favipiravir, as well as others, also look promising for early treatment.

Most fascinating is the potential for BCG vaccine to play a major role in decreasing vulnerability.

Quote
An effective and safe vaccine - as above, this will take time and will likely be available only after the main global wave of fatalities is over.

Yes, particularly conventionally developed vaccines. The new constructed vaccines are as yet unproven but have tremendous potential.

Quote
Variations between populations - that the Italians and the Chinese and the Americans are more susceptible due to pollution and malnutrition - doesn't seem to bear out so far. Nearly all countries exhibit the same data trajectory.

I would love to hear your and others' input on this.

This will be interesting in retrospect. It likely won’t play a major role.

Sam

sigma_squared

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4325 on: March 30, 2020, 06:35:35 AM »
In other words - where could you be wrong in your predictions?
The only factor I can find so far that could make a large difference is the number of asymptomatic cases. If if turns out that for each diagnosed case there are 10 or 20 undiagnosed mild cases that go nowhere and generate immunity, then the total fatalities and total hospitalizations should be much lower than expected in the dire scenario, and the disease will peak much earlier as it runs out of available hosts. How sure are we of this factor?

I would love to hear your and others' input on this.

I think this was one of the assumptions underlying the study from an Oxford group mentioned in this article, which mostly seems to question their assumptions:

https://www.livescience.com/half-the-uk-infected-coronavirus-covid19.html
Quote
Has half the UK already caught COVID-19? Probably not.
A new study rests on several big assumptions, but highlights the desperate need for antibody testing.

Among others, it quotes Imperial's Neil Ferguson saying these assumptions don't match reality as measured in Italy. It does show the importance of doing serology tests, which show whether someone has had the infection in the past, versus the PCR test, which shows whether they have an active infection.

Quote
In comparison, a recent study from Imperial College London included numbers from several Italian villages where every resident received a diagnostic test and might provide more realistic benchmarks for the extent of infection elsewhere, lead author Niall Ferguson told the Science and Technology Committee, according to Wired U.K. "Those data all point to the fact that we are nowhere near the [Oxford study] scenario in terms of the extent of the infection," Ferguson said.   

Despite its flaws, the Oxford paper did highlight an important point, upon which all the Science Media Centre experts and those who spoke to Wired U.K. agreed:

The U.K. needs to determine how many people have already been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 to shape public health policy going forward. This feat can be accomplished with widespread serological testing (blood tests), which would reveal who has antibodies to the novel coronavirus circulating in their blood. The U.K. has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests and must now validate the kits before selling them to the public, Wired U.K. previously reported.

Slide 22 of the Harvard presentation also shows that most asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. A few other slides also address this. I'm sure Sam can add much more, but that's the basic background as I understand it.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 06:47:42 AM by sigma_squared »

bluice

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 384
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 357
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4326 on: March 30, 2020, 06:35:53 AM »
Sam, sources don’t seem to back your claim of 35-50 % hospitalization rate. I remember seeing 20% by the WHO and below source states 20.7 - 31.4 % in the US.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105402/covid-hospitalization-rates-us-by-age-group/

We need to remember children have extremely low rate of hospitalization.

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4327 on: March 30, 2020, 06:49:53 AM »
Quote
The only factor I can find so far that could make a large difference is the number of asymptomatic cases. If if turns out that for each diagnosed case there are 10 or 20 undiagnosed mild cases that go nowhere and generate immunity, then the total fatalities and total hospitalizations should be much lower than expected in the dire scenario, and the disease will peak much earlier as it runs out of available hosts. How sure are we of this factor?

South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people,9,661 cases ,158 deaths.4,275 Currently Infected Patients,4,216 (99%)in Mild Condition 59 (1%)Serious or Critical,Recovered:5,228
Apparently their cases from the church group, the main epicenter of infection, were predominantly young.
Still it does suggest many mild cases are going unreported in other places. 
Not by a factor of 10 .




sigma_squared

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4328 on: March 30, 2020, 06:51:27 AM »
This tweet has the latest charts from the Financial Times.
Updated March 28, credit John Burn-Murdoch

https://twitter.com/POSUTtRUmp/status/1244335139267567623

Sam

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4329 on: March 30, 2020, 06:51:41 AM »
Sam, sources don’t seem to back your claim of 35-50 % hospitalization rate. I remember seeing 20% by the WHO and below source states 20.7 - 31.4 % in the US.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105402/covid-hospitalization-rates-us-by-age-group/

We need to remember children have extremely low rate of hospitalization.

Possible, but sorting out presymptomatic from asymptomatic is vital along with a temporal follow up. Did the people in the study ultimately go to hospital or not? And what are the statistics for their outcomes. There is nothing simple about answering these questions to get truly meaningful data in the midst of a rapidly expanding pandemic.

Sam

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5539
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1720
  • Likes Given: 1609
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4330 on: March 30, 2020, 07:39:08 AM »
Thank you dear posters for the responses to my request for input.
Unfortunately I feel the same - the asymptomatic ratio isn't gonna save the day. But only a widespread antibody test somewhere will be able to give a true answer - here's hoping it gets done fast.
Let's hope the treatment factor could bear fruit.

On a personal note, I am known among my friends and colleagues as an alarmist of sorts. Of course to myself I am known as a realist-optimist who is simply aware of the impending issues. I assume most posters on this forum are more alarmist relative to their circle of acquaintances - it comes with the subject matter.
Knowing this tendency, when coming up with truly staggering alarm I tend to question and re-question it to make sure as much as I can that I am not crying wolf (more than usual). Unfortunately with the COVID-19 alarm I haven't yet found any reason to sound the all-clear.

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4331 on: March 30, 2020, 08:02:17 AM »
One to ten million 13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million 14 (20.6%)

Those who estimated as above I would regard as realists.
Out side of this  range you have the real optimists and pessimists.
As with AGW How us apes  respond is the greater unknown .


KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4332 on: March 30, 2020, 08:27:05 AM »
Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device
Australian Dr Daniel Reardon ended up in hospital after inserting magnets in his nostrils while building a necklace that warns you when you touch your face

theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device
Still laughing.

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4333 on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:15 AM »
Actually, the more relevant piece by Osterholm to this particular discussion is in the WaPo from March 21st "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure" But it's behind a paywall (I thought WaPo wasn't doing that for covid related pieces! )

If anyone can get a copy of all or some of it, that would be appreciated.
 

Here it comes (I do not do this for the newest articles, but this was written a while ago).
He sounds like the state experts here in Sweden.

Quote
Covid-19 will go away eventually in one of two ways. Either we will develop a vaccine to prevent it, or the virus will burn itself out as the spread of infection comes to confer a form of herd immunity on the population. Neither of those possibilities will occur quickly.

It is time to face reality. We urgently need a unified national strategy, one informed by the best science about stopping diseases like covid-19 and from virus control efforts in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as realistic projections of the human and economic toll of any option we pursue. Our way of life cannot survive an indefinite series of short-term action plans.

We have to ask what we hope to accomplish with limited self-quarantines and shelter-in-place directives. Clearly, as one objective, we seek to “flatten the curve” in an effort to keep our already overburdened health-care system from being overrun. The ability of our hospitals to continue providing care to a flood of covid-19 patients, while still treating the other patients they normally have, all the while protecting health-care professionals, will be a major factor in reducing bad outcomes for victims of the coronavirus and other illnesses as well.

But how do we actually accomplish this? What happens after a several-week moratorium on normal activity? Does the president, governor or mayor declare another? While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has made a courageous move by locking down his state, how long can 40 million California residents be kept at home? And will it be long enough to make a significant difference?

China and Italy have imposed near-draconian lockdowns in an effort to halt the spread of covid-19. But how and when will these two “test” nations return to normal life? And when they do, will there be a major second wave of cases? If that happens, should they simply “rinse and repeat”?

As a country, with momentum building for a possible national shutdown directive, we are on the verge of ringing a giant bell that we don’t know how to un-ring.

Yet we don’t, for example, have good data on the real impact of closing public and private K-12 schools on the spread of covid-19. Hong Kong and Singapore, advanced city-states that experienced the outbreak early, both attempted to respond quickly and efficiently. Hong Kong closed schools; Singapore did not, and there was hardly any difference in the rate of transmission. The second-order effect of shutting schools is that hardest hit will be those least able to afford to miss work to care for homebound children. And what of our health professionals with children? Add to that firefighters, police officers, utility workers, delivery drivers and other essential personnel, and the magnitude of the problem is clear.

The Imperial College of London has produced a sobering study on possible covid-19 strategies. Three scenarios compare the outcomes of flattening the curve (mitigation), suppression (long-term quarantine) and letting the virus take its natural course (doing nothing), modeling the levels of disease and death for each course. The stark takeaway: Significantly reducing the number of serious illnesses and deaths would require a near-total lockdown until an effective vaccine is available, probably at least 18 months from now.

Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold. We can’t have everyone stay home and still produce and distribute the basics needed to sustain life and fight the disease.

We are in uncharted territory. But the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.

Very soon, we may have to acknowledge that attempting to stretch out cases in the hopes of keeping the curve reasonably flat is unworkable. Then, as we wait for either our scientific or natural redeemer to come, we can start trying to put things as back to normal as we can — doing our best to protect those at high risk, but acknowledging that people will get sick, some will die, and our health-care system is going to be overrun to a great extent no matter what we do.


There is no black-or-white option here. We will have to figure out what shade of gray we can accept and apply. We will get through this, but hard and painful choices are inescapable.

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2135
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 180
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4334 on: March 30, 2020, 11:20:03 AM »
Case history of Finland, pretty close to exponential. Helsinki region over 850, one other region rising faster than linear, hopefully closing bars and other privately owned locales will stop this bastard of a generally dangerous disease. Starting to look like Finns are not everywhere doing good enough by disease's standards

About 20000 tests done.13 deaths (~ 1%), 143 hospitalized (~11%), 49 in intensive care (under 4%). Of course these are momentary numbers as very many are unresolved numbers. But it looks like the testing catches some of the non-symptomatic cases too as the hospitalization rate isn't more common. Of course this may change.

I can do more to avoid contagion, f.e. if the cases start to rise locally probably start to use a scarf out of yard, washing soles of shoes before coming in and cleaning the shopping trolley/cart handle before use. Of the current measures, have slipped once and did not use gloves last time going to market (been there three times over two weeks). Touching only those items that I buy. Breathing quietly and if possible away from people and stuff in the store. Met two persons too closely elsewhere. Hard to avoid people in the market, though people are notably quieter now than three weeks ago. They've set up marks on the floor for lines. Wearing different jeans out of yard/home, should do the same with jackets.

But still, if the bug is airborne no way I can avoid it.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 02:18:10 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4335 on: March 30, 2020, 01:01:10 PM »
One to ten million 13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million 14 (20.6%)

Those who estimated as above I would regard as realists.
Out side of this  range you have the real optimists and pessimists.
As with AGW How us apes  respond is the greater unknown .

I voted 100 million plus.
At the time I was concerned about reports that the immunity was short lived and people were getting reinfected.
I am still unsure how long the immunity lasts.

Still...... there is still a mild case for 100 million plus.
For example, there are about 1 billion people aged over 60 around the world.
The death rate for that groups is high even with decent medical care, and much worse without it.
Is it really out of reach that 10% of people over 60 could die from this?

The virus is still only starting to make inroads into Africa and India and a whole host of poor countries with little to no health care systems in place.
There is no way you will convince me the death rates for all people in poor countries will be less than 2%.

While I would select 10 to 100 million now.... I dont think it is out of the realms of possibility that the end total will be over 100 million. It is still reasonable odds in my mind based on the numbers alone and the part where poor countries wont be able to do half as much as rich countries.

Although the estimates of the US being under 200K is very low. Even at 1% it will be over 3 million.

Anyway..... I wouldnt pick 100 million plus now.... but I also wouldnt be overly surprised to see it reach that level.

I just dont see enough happening around the world that suggests we will stop it enough to run mostly wild in most countries.

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 129
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4336 on: March 30, 2020, 01:02:36 PM »
@pietkuip what WaPo forgets to mention is that, in countries like Taiwan or Singapore, kids can go to school 'normally' but following significant protection measures and equipment. That's how they contain it.



pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4337 on: March 30, 2020, 01:09:56 PM »
@pietkuip what WaPo forgets to mention is that, in countries like Taiwan or Singapore, kids can go to school 'normally' but following significant protection measures and equipment. That's how they contain it.

This is not just some journalist. This is a leading epidemiologist:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm

Don't think that you know things that he forgot.

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 129
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4338 on: March 30, 2020, 01:32:30 PM »
We can discuss eternally about this
I will just bring some not so distant facts.
History lesson: Taiwan identifies first case Jan 20th.
After an initial expanding contagion and two weeks of stopped activity, this is restarted with a lot of measures in place. (for more measures watch the video above).
Current Taiwan numbers (Mar 30) and some of the measures taken in early Feb.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 491
  • Likes Given: 344
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4339 on: March 30, 2020, 01:35:54 PM »
Thanks, piet, for the article.

And thanks, oren, for this:

Quote
On a personal note, I am known among my friends and colleagues as an alarmist of sorts. Of course to myself I am known as a realist-optimist who is simply aware of the impending issues. I assume most posters on this forum are more alarmist relative to their circle of acquaintances - it comes with the subject matter.
Knowing this tendency, when coming up with truly staggering alarm I tend to question and re-question it to make sure as much as I can that I am not crying wolf...

Pretty much where I am, and well stated.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 252
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4340 on: March 30, 2020, 01:39:17 PM »
Article in The NY Times describing the uneasy truce that exists after successfully "flattening the curve." The article suggests that through strong measures and good compliance they Seattle WA has pushed the R0 down to about 1.4.  Obviously that helps, but that will still allow steady growth that implies months and months of continued social distancing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html

SEATTLE — The Seattle area, home of the first known coronavirus case in the United States and the place where the virus claimed 37 of its first 50 victims, is now seeing evidence that strict containment strategies, imposed in the earliest days of the outbreak, are beginning to pay off — at least for now.

Deaths are not rising as fast as they are in other states. Dramatic declines in street traffic show that people are staying home. Hospitals have so far not been overwhelmed. And preliminary statistical models provided to public officials in Washington State suggest that the spread of the virus has slowed in the Seattle area in recent days.

While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 252
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4341 on: March 30, 2020, 01:39:51 PM »
Article in The NY Times describing the uneasy truce that exists after successfully "flattening the curve." The article suggests that through strong measures and good compliance Seattle WA has pushed the R0 down to about 1.4.  Obviously that helps, but that will still allow steady growth that implies months and months of continued social distancing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html

SEATTLE — The Seattle area, home of the first known coronavirus case in the United States and the place where the virus claimed 37 of its first 50 victims, is now seeing evidence that strict containment strategies, imposed in the earliest days of the outbreak, are beginning to pay off — at least for now.

Deaths are not rising as fast as they are in other states. Dramatic declines in street traffic show that people are staying home. Hospitals have so far not been overwhelmed. And preliminary statistical models provided to public officials in Washington State suggest that the spread of the virus has slowed in the Seattle area in recent days.

While each infected person was spreading the virus to an average of 2.7 other people earlier in March, that number appears to have dropped, with one projection suggesting that it was now down to 1.4.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 708
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4342 on: March 30, 2020, 01:41:24 PM »
@pietkuip what WaPo forgets to mention is that, in countries like Taiwan or Singapore, kids can go to school 'normally' but following significant protection measures and equipment. That's how they contain it.

This is not just some journalist. This is a leading epidemiologist:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm

Don't think that you know things that he forgot.

Experts are humans subject to bias and mistakes.  Any expert not recommending mask use has succumbed to fear/propaganda.

This ends when masks are required for anyone interacting with others.  Healthcare workers can work a whole lifetime with extremely infectious diseases without getting infected. Masks are one of their primary tools. Mask use can be done systematically to prevent disease.

Humans are trainable, especially when highly motivated to save their lives. We have the tools to train humans at massive scales. There will be many slip-ups and noncompliance, that is true, but the perfect is the enemy of the good. Universal mask use can do so much good. They may buy us the time and flexibility we need until a vaccine gets here.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 252
  • Likes Given: 137
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4343 on: March 30, 2020, 01:41:39 PM »
This tweet has the latest charts from the Financial Times.

The FT graphics are free to read on their site:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

These ones are similar but better:
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

pileus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4344 on: March 30, 2020, 01:51:48 PM »
Quite an effort to keep track of sam’s various projections for the US death toll.  25 million, 5 million, 12 million.

We have Dr. Fauci now using a range of 100-200k.  You would expect him to not be the type to exaggerate, so perhaps this is on the low and uncertain side.

Despite some of the generalizations here that the US population is flouting guidance and society is operating BAU, a large number of Americans have been under some degree of physical distancing and/or stay at home orders.  There is some evidence in a few larger metros of case growth slowing.  Too early to draw conclusions, and yes that spreads out the effect over time until there is a vaccine.

I’m in an urban area of Florida, and expect a very bad April and May due to demographics and slow adoption of measures across the state.  Even so, in the absence of data or facts I wouldn’t expect the catastrophic tolls statewide or nationally that some here are pushing.


El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 426
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4345 on: March 30, 2020, 01:51:58 PM »
I don't know about Seattle, maybe the infection rate has dropped from 2.7 to 1.4 only, but in Europe, the drop must be so much bigger. Car traffic has fallen by 70%, public transport use by 80-90% in Budapest, no kids go to school, most people work from home, etc.
 
Even if the original R0 was 3, it must be very significantly below 1 by now. Same probably true for most of Europe. Europe is peaking right now (except for idiots who wouldn't do quarantine)

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 708
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4346 on: March 30, 2020, 02:02:14 PM »
Europe might be peaking in the number of new cases due to social distancing efforts, but the disease is yet to peak in number of hospitalizations or deaths.  I think there is a second bump up from family infections, then the third bump from overwhelmed healthcare.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3371
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2016
  • Likes Given: 263
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4347 on: March 30, 2020, 02:03:20 PM »
Goldman Sachs: Coronavirus crisis game changer for oil sector
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

The coronavirus pandemic and resulting plunge in crude prices will result in a leaner, stronger oil industry but raise the risk of shortages further down the line, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

"If pipelines get clogged up as refineries shut down, inventories cannot build, reducing the cushion and creating a very quick risk reversal towards oil shortages," Goldman said in a note.

This would in turn cause an oil shortage, pushing prices above the Wall Street bank's $55 a barrel target for 2021, it said.

"This will likely be a game changer for the industry," the bank said.

"Big Oils will consolidate the best assets in the industry and will shed the worst ... when the industry emerges from this downturn, there will be fewer companies of higher asset quality, but the capital constraints will remain."

Oil has been hit disproportionately by the "coronacrisis", sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory, Goldman said.

"Paradoxically, this will ultimately create an inflationary oil supply shock of historic proportions because so much oil production will be forced to be shut in," it added. "The oil price war is made irrelevant by the large decline in demand and has made a coordinated supply response impossible to achieve in time."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3371
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2016
  • Likes Given: 263
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4348 on: March 30, 2020, 02:57:42 PM »
Austria to Make Basic Face Masks Compulsory in Supermarkets
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

Austria will require the public to wear basic face masks in supermarkets, where they will be handed out probably from Wednesday in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said. "It’s not part of our culture, and it will be a big adjustment for us, but it’s necessary that we take this step to further reduce transmission," he said.

"These masks are handed out in front of supermarkets it will be compulsory to wear them," Kurz said, adding that the aim in the medium term was for people to wear them in public more often as well. The so-called MNS masks are below medical-grade, he said.

----------------------------

Slovenia banned citizens from traveling around the country and made mask use mandatory from Monday on. Under the new measures, people will not be able to leave their municipality of residence and will have to wear masks and gloves in most indoor public spaces.

----------------------------

Doctors in Germany called for a "massive expansion" of production of personal protective equipment on Monday. "Politicians and businesses must now address the lack of protective equipment by all available means," read a statement issued by the Marburger Bund, the largest doctors’ association in Europe.

"A lack of adequate protective equipment must not put the health of people who want to help other people with all their might, at risk," said Dr. Susanna Johna, the chair of the group, which represents around 70% of hospital doctors in Germany.

----------------------------

Spain Passes China On Number of Cases
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-rising-quickly-spain-200327181759832.html

Spain's total number of coronavirus cases rose to 85,195 from 78,797 on Sunday, the country's health ministry said, as the infections surpassed China, which reported 81,470, according to the latest data.

The death toll from the virus in Spain rose to 7,340 on Monday from 6,528 on Sunday, the ministry said.

-------------------------

Fears of a Second Wave of Infections in China
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

Concern about a second wave of infections is growing in China amid official pressure to resume normal life, according to Al Jazeera's Katrina Yu.

"In Wuhan, some shops are open, and malls are starting to open their doors. People who work in essential industries, such as the cement, steel and car industries, are starting to go back to work," Yu said from Beijing.

Yu said officials are under "tremendous pressure to resume normal life" as President Xi Jinping travelled on Sunday to a port and an industrial park in eastern Zhejiang Province to inspect the resumption of work.

"He wants to get the economy going after two months at a standstill. And because of this urgency, there are fears it may be too soon and could result in a second wave of infections," she said. "Officials are also under pressure to keep numbers down, and that's causing fears they may not be transparent when it comes to reporting new cases."

-------------------------

India: No plan to extend coronavirus lockdown
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

India has no plans to extend a 21-day lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the government said, as it struggled to keep essential supplies flowing and prevent tens of thousands of out-of-work people fleeing to the countryside.

Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba told ANI, a Reuters news agency partner, that there was no plan to extend the shutdown beyond the three weeks, rejecting reports that a prolonged closure was likely.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered the country's 1.3 billion people to remain indoors until April 15, saying that was the only hope to stop the spread.

Defying the lockdown, hundreds of thousands of workers who live on daily wages left big cities like Delhi and Mumbai on foot for their homes in the countryside, many with families.


Thousands mob New Delhi bus terminal after lockdown announced

-------------------------

Lockdown in India hits HIV patients hard
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/india-covid-19-lockdown-hits-hiv-chronic-patients-hard-200329200022525.html

India's ongoing strict COVID-19 lockdown has widely affected HIV-positive and chronic patients with critical conditions who are facing problems accessing health services.

With 21.4 million Indians living with HIV, according to the National Aids Control Organisation data in 2017, India is believed to be home to the third-largest population of HIV-positive people in the world

-------------------------

Developing Countries Face Economic Collapse in COVID-19 fight: UN
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/developing-countries-face-economic-collapse-covid-19-fight-200330003332689.html

The coronavirus outbreak threatens to disproportionately devastate the economies of already impoverished countries as they gear up to tackle a health crisis with extremely limited resources, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned.

The socioeconomic hit on poor and developing countries will take years to recover from, UNDP said in a report released on Monday, stressing that income losses in those countries are forecast to exceed $220bn. Nearly half of all jobs in Africa could be lost, it also warned.

--------------------------

Russia weighs nationwide coronavirus lockdown
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin asked regional governors to consider introducing a partial lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus after Russia recorded its biggest rise in cases for the sixth day in a row.

Russia's official nationwide tally of coronavirus cases rose by 302, taking the total to 1,836. Nine people across Russia have died, the authorities say.

Authorities in Moscow ordered residents to stay at home from Monday, their toughest move yet after the number of official cases in the Russian capital passed the 1,000 mark

The isolation rules will be policed by a system of facial recognition cameras placed throughout Moscow. The lockdown also coincides with the start of a "non-working" week announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin last week.

Mishustin said he thought the measures now needed to be rolled out nationwide.

-----------------------------

Lockdown in Zimbabwe likely to hit vulnerable people hard
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

Zimbabweans rushed to supermarkets on the eve of a three-week lockdown imposed by the government on Monday to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The threat of the new disease could not have come at a worse time for millions of Zimbabweans already struggling with a deepening economic crisis bringing soaring food prices, stagnant salaries, water shortages and daily power blackouts.

Many fear steps to curb coronavirus will hit vulnerable people hard.

-----------------------------

Super-Spreader: UK PM Johnson's Adviser Isolating With Coronavirus Symptoms
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/death-toll-york-state-passes-1000-live-updates-200329234257896.html

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, has begun self-isolating with symptoms just days after the British leader tested positive.

A Downing Street spokesman said Cummings, widely seen as one of the most powerful men in the government, had developed symptoms of COVID-19 over the weekend.

Johnson on Friday became the first leader of a major world power to announce he had tested positive for the virus. His health minister, Matt Hancock, also tested positive and the government's chief medical adviser, Chris Whitty, is self-isolating.

-------------------------

Israeli PM Netanyahu's aide has coronavirus

An aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tested positive for coronavirus but initial findings indicate she had not posed an infection risk to the 70-year-old leader, according to officials.

As a routine precaution, they said Netanyahu was scheduled to undergo a coronavirus test by Tuesday.

----------------------------

Guatemalan deported from US tests positive
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/guatemalan-deported-tests-positive-covid-19-official-200330030439882.html

A Guatemalan man who was deported from the US last week has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, according to a spokeswoman for the Guatemalan health ministry.

The 29-year-old was deported last Thursday on a flight chartered by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. The flight had at least 40 others on board.

----------------------------

EasyJet grounds fleet, furloughs cabin crew for two months

British low-cost airline EasyJet said it had grounded its entire fleet of over 300 aircraft and reached a deal with its cabin crew for employees to be furloughed for two months under a government job-retention scheme.

The airline said there was no way to tell when commercial flights could restart.

... The UK's National Health Service (NHS) is asking airline cabin crew who have been laid off during the coronavirus pandemic to go to work in temporary new hospitals being built to treat COVID-19 patients.

The NHS said airlines including easyJet and Virgin Atlantic are writing to thousands of staff — especially those with first aid training — asking them to work at hospitals being built inside convention centers in London, Birmingham and Manchester.

https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-recession-in-germany-inevitable-government-advisers-say/a-52951287

-----------------------------

A recession in Germany in the first half of this year is "inevitable" due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the country’s council of economic advisers. Output could shrink by up to 5.4% this year, while in the best-case scenario, gross domestic product (GDP) could drop by as little as 2.8%. That best-case scenario would be dependent on a short time frame for coronavirus-related restrictions on businesses, and a speedy economic recovery, the council said.

----------------------------------

More than one in 10 medium-sized companies are threatened with bankruptcy due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to Eric Schweitzer, the president of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK).

"What is worrying is not only the absolute number of feared bankruptcies, but also the rapidly rising concrete worries of insolvency within the last three weeks," said Schweitzer, referencing an unpublished survey involving a total of 15,000 companies. Additionally, 40% of medium-sized companies in the travel and hospitality industry are in acute danger of declaring bankruptcy, he said.

https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-recession-in-germany-inevitable-government-advisers-say/a-52951287

-----------------------------

In Germany, asparagus might become a rare delicacy this year. The harvest relies on experienced eastern European teams of farm laborers. But border lockdowns and travel bans have starved German farms of labor just as the harvest is due.

----------------------------

Coronavirus Pandemic Not Keeping Swedes at Home
https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-pandemic-not-keeping-swedes-at-home/av-52950733
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 03:44:25 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 822
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4349 on: March 30, 2020, 02:59:08 PM »
“You cannot tell the ship to stay at sea forever, but also do it in a thoughtful and transparent way that helps to protect the lives of people in South Florida.  That needs to be the goal.”

Cruise ship with sick passengers could come to Fort Lauderdale - South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Quote
A Holland America cruise ship, carrying four bodies and scores of patients with coronavirus-like symptoms, has been given permission to cross the Panama Canal, allowing them to continue their journey toward Florida, the cruise line’s president said Sunday.

The Zandaam and Rotterdam, where some passengers were transferred, may be heading to Fort Lauderdale or Miami.

The wait staff is from the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, many of whom are sick and need medical help, she said.
“This was a grand adventure that turned deeply tragic,” she said.

LeAnn Morris Pliske, of Fort Lauderdale, said when she first heard about the ship bound for Fort Lauderdale she thought “oh that’s terrible — we don’t want that here.” Then she learned her aunt and uncle were on board.

“These are innocent people caught up in a nightmare. They are on 24-hour lockdown in their cabins. Have you ever been locked in one room for more than a week?” she said. “Seems like jail to me. My poor aunt is in the same stateroom she was sharing with her husband whom she watched expire on the floor despite the crew’s efforts at revival. And she has to sit there, 24 hours a day, until some country will let the ships dock.”

The cruise ship, on a South American journey, was first denied entry into Chile. Since then, four people died, two just tested positive for the new coronavirus, and the number of passengers and crew with flu-like symptoms has ballooned to 138.

Several Broward County commissioners were alarmed at the idea of the Zaandam docking at Port Everglades.

Commissioner Michael Udine said early Sunday that Port Everglades notified county commissioners late Saturday with its mandates for the passengers including: All illnesses and conditions must be accurately disclosed and documented; the cruise line, at its expense, will provide all protective equipment to all responders; temperature readings are required for all disembarking crew and passengers; and the cruise line, at its expense, will arrange for private ambulance transportation, among other requirements.

To minimize exposure, passengers are allowed off the ship with only one piece of luggage with essential items. The cruise line would sanitize all other luggage, according to Port Everglades regulations.

And, “no less than 24 hours in advance of the start of debarkation, the cruise line will present a security plan for review and approval ... how passengers will debark orderly, safely and in compliance with current health advisories (i.e. social distancing). Failure to maintain good order may result in an immediate suspension of the debarkation until the situation is under control,” according to the guidelines.

Udine said the ship’s pending arrival would be discussed at Tuesday’s scheduled county commission meeting. It will take the ship 72 hours to get to Port Everglades after it passes through the Panama Canal.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-sick-ship-approval-fort-lauderdale-20200329-pymhibz6bvduxbwfgk2mil23ku-story.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.