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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 597972 times)

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4600 on: April 02, 2020, 01:10:26 AM »
Know what you know and know what you do not know.

There are models running on assumptions and there are many variables not modeled between countries.

It intrigues me to see how edgy some people get over this issue while it is only minor in the grand perspective.

My pet theory is that it wakes people up because it possibly effects them in the short term by a slight or not so slight increase in risk of death.

Risk of death goes up with age but also we are mostly in priviliged locations.
Would you worry as much if your daily wage job in India dried up and then you had to walk 300 km home? Would you matter about Covid if you were a single mom in a South African township with its TB and HIV rates and a live time rape percentage of 40%? No you would not because you do not have that luxury.

Yes this is a huge global health calamity but there is more then just playing with the numbers. Figuring out the CFR or IFR is mostly just a way to get a control of the numbers which might help to give you a better feeling but it does not mean anything to Covid just like AGW does not care about a lot about our numbers.

What is more important is the root causes and addressing those.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4601 on: April 02, 2020, 01:14:51 AM »
Know what you know and know what you do not know.

There are models running on assumptions and there are many variables not modeled between countries.

It intrigues me to see how edgy some people get over this issue while it is only minor in the grand perspective.

My pet theory is that it wakes people up because it possibly effects them in the short term by a slight or not so slight increase in risk of death.

Risk of death goes up with age but also we are mostly in priviliged locations.
Would you worry as much if your daily wage job in India dried up and then you had to walk 300 km home? Would you matter about Covid if you were a single mom in a South African township with its TB and HIV rates and a live time rape percentage of 40%? No you would not because you do not have that luxury.

Yes this is a huge global health calamity but there is more then just playing with the numbers. Figuring out the CFR or IFR is mostly just a way to get a control of the numbers which might help to give you a better feeling but it does not mean anything to Covid just like AGW does not care about a lot about our numbers.

What is more important is the root causes and addressing those.

Thank you for pointing this out, so many posters here are obsessed with the numbers.

You're absolutely correct that we need to stop focusing on the numbers, and focus on the root cause, which is civilization itself, and humans, and how we exist.

There's basically only 3 options:

Option 1:  Make a vaccine

Option 2:  Figure out a treatment which drops the death rate down 10 or 20 fold.

Option 3:  Civilization collapses, our population density decreases below the threshold decreasing R0 below 1.0 or so.



vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4602 on: April 02, 2020, 01:17:56 AM »
Coronavirus Could Kill More Americans Than WWI, Vietnam or Korean wars, White House Projection Shows
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/01/coronavirus-could-kill-more-americans-than-some-wars.html

... If everything goes perfectly ...





--------------------------------

OBTW: Trump Forgot to Mention This - Must Have Slipped His Mind
https://www.newsweek.com/cdc-director-coronavirus-wave-late-fall-substantial-portion-americans-will-susceptible-1495401?amp=1

The head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned the country may be hit by a second wave of COVID-19 cases in late fall.

Speaking to NPR-affiliate WABE, Dr. Robert Redfield, CDC director and virologist, addressed a potential second wave of infections which may emerge after the spike in hospitalizations and deaths forecast for April or May in models used by the Trump administration.

The CDC is preparing "most likely, for another wave that we would anticipate in the late fall, early winter where there will still be a substantial portion of Americans that are susceptible," Redfield said.

... Redfield also said it appears the new coronavirus is more infectious than the flu, and can be passed by those without symptoms.

Asked what the CDC has learned about the COVID-19-causing virus in recent weeks, Redfield said: "This virus does have the ability to transmit far easier than flu. It's probably now about three times as infectious as flu. One of the [pieces of] information that we have pretty much confirmed now is that a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25 percent."

The CDC director also highlighted that those who develop COVID-19 may shed its virus in the oropharyngeal compartment (the soft palate, side and back walls of the throat, the tonsils, and the back of the tongue) "probably up to 48 hours before we show symptoms."

Redfield said: "This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues to spread across the country, because we have asymptomatic transmitters and we have individuals who are transmitting 48 hours before they become symptomatic."



-------------------------------------

Cupboard's Bare: Last Rounds of Protective Gear in National Stockpile Being Shipped
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/01/politics/national-stockpile-shipments/index.html

The Strategic National Stockpile is deploying the last round of shipments in its inventory, depleting the bulk of its protective gear, according to a source familiar with the matter.

... On Wednesday, President Donald Trump acknowledged that the stockpile is nearly depleted.

"It is. We are sending it directly to hospitals," Trump said.

He added, "We have asked states where they have large manufacturers of different types of equipment to use those local factories, local plants, and have it made directly, ship it right into the hospitals."

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the government would hold onto 10,000 ventilators to ensure the government had the ability to deploy quickly if they need the units in the future. WTF!!!!!

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-03-31-20/h_d7910f7f1f9212668bcb09785128d04e
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4603 on: April 02, 2020, 01:24:06 AM »
The Wuhan coronavirus will be orders of magnitude worse than the 1918 Spanish flu. 

A better example of our future is to look at the Boubonic plague outbreaks in Europe, and the Smallpox pandemic on the Native Americans.

Industrialized civilization is collapsing, as society collapsed for the Europeans for the Boubonic plague, and the Native Americans during Smallpox.

This is our Smallpox, whether people want to acknowledge that the death rate and the numbers are just a very rough estimate, at best.


Those who are now in denial, will have the worst psychological outcomes, and will probably not adequately prepare for what comes next.

Covid is not worse then the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.

Covid kills the old and weak while 1918 H1N1 replicated at such levels that it killed the young and healthy.

The bubonic plagues are a totally different (but interesting) story. Can´t compare them.

And the smallpox for native indians worked totally different too. Somewhere upthread someone cited an R0 for smallpox which was probably for european or asian populations but that is not valid for a population with no exposure. The death rate was horrific. It was the best example of biological warfare bar none and the collapse that resulted can not really be compared to what we see now.

This thing freaks you out so try to freak out less. It´s probably better.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4604 on: April 02, 2020, 01:30:55 AM »
The Wuhan coronavirus will be orders of magnitude worse than the 1918 Spanish flu. 

A better example of our future is to look at the Boubonic plague outbreaks in Europe, and the Smallpox pandemic on the Native Americans.

Industrialized civilization is collapsing, as society collapsed for the Europeans for the Boubonic plague, and the Native Americans during Smallpox.

This is our Smallpox, whether people want to acknowledge that the death rate and the numbers are just a very rough estimate, at best.


Those who are now in denial, will have the worst psychological outcomes, and will probably not adequately prepare for what comes next.

Covid is not worse then the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.

Covid kills the old and weak while 1918 H1N1 replicated at such levels that it killed the young and healthy.

The bubonic plagues are a totally different (but interesting) story. Can´t compare them.

And the smallpox for native indians worked totally different too. Somewhere upthread someone cited an R0 for smallpox which was probably for european or asian populations but that is not valid for a population with no exposure. The death rate was horrific. It was the best example of biological warfare bar none and the collapse that resulted can not really be compared to what we see now.

This thing freaks you out so try to freak out less. It´s probably better.

I must completely disagree with you.  And point out that you're incorrect on many levels.

If you go back to the beginning of this entire pandemic, there was considerable denial - it's predictable.

There's quite a bit of denial, and now, people are still denying.  It's predictable.

« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 01:55:48 AM by harpy »

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4605 on: April 02, 2020, 01:31:49 AM »
...
I follow the statistics, projections and reports published daily by Swedish health authorities. As of today some new advice and recommendations regarding distancing on public transport and in supermarkets were published. It is now forbidden to visit care homes for the elderly.
...

Swedish bureaucracy at its worst. On Tuesday March 31 they finally decided that our elderly need to be protected. WOW!

For how long did they already know that C19 kills first of all the sick and elderly? First reports about this came in the beginning of February afaik. Statistics and scientifical evidence from Wuhan. More than 6 weeks were lost doing nothing to protect our most vulnerable groups.

Due to their negligence to react and to act in due time on evidence they had, those Swedish politicians and bureaucrats are actively killing our elderly.
Murderers they are.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 03:42:33 AM by Hefaistos »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4606 on: April 02, 2020, 01:52:08 AM »
Civilization is collapsing right now.

We´ll see.

I don´t think it is but it shows that a lot of our current arrangements are suboptimal. They optimize supply chains for dolloars not resilience. There was already an ongoing problem with tainted medicins from China (just bad controls there) which dropped many medicins needed for some people here.

There is a point for local. It´s less walking if you have to fetch it never mind the swimming.

And of course all the concentrated wealth / big farms and associated monoculture increase the risk of collapse but did you ever think about that?

What if we empty the seas (not really emptying but all your usual catch are going N or S depending on hemisphere while all kind of ecological functions get knocked out by the creatures that cannot move fast dying).

We are well on our way to collapse but Covid might not be the thing to tip this over so please focus on the longer term.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4607 on: April 02, 2020, 01:54:04 AM »
U.S. deaths today...1046 and counting...we'll be at 2000 per day sometime next week...

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4608 on: April 02, 2020, 01:59:33 AM »
It turned out right that I was clueless about Swedish health system.
So with almost 500 cases per 1M, you still could visit grandpa???
It’s worse than I thought.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4609 on: April 02, 2020, 02:11:40 AM »
Pentagon Seeking 100,000 Body Bags for Civilians in Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-01/pentagon-seeking-100-000-body-bags-for-civilians-in-virus-crisis

The Pentagon is looking into buying more bags and will draw some initially from a stockpile of 50,000 it maintains, according to two people familiar with the request.

The Defense Logistics Agency’s Troop Support unit manages the Pentagon’s stockpile of the green nylon, 94-inch by 38-inch body bags that are typically distributed to war zones. The unit has been in contact with the current contractor to assess its manufacturing capabilities but hasn’t yet placed a formal order, according to one of the people.

The Defense Logistics Agency doesn’t yet have a specific delivery date request from FEMA but the agency wants them as soon as they are ready, and the Pentagon is close to agreement with its current contractor on the numbers and time lines, one of the people said.

A FEMA spokesman said the agency is making “prudent planning” for potential future needs, and that includes preparing for “mortuary contingencies” from U.S. states.



Yesterday, the White House projected that as many as 240,000 Americans could die from Covid-19, even if distancing meaures and other public health interventions are put in place.

Hospitals in places including New York and New Jersey have been securing refrigerated trucks to help hold bodies in areas where capacity for storing them has run out.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4610 on: April 02, 2020, 02:37:07 AM »
India Coronavirus Cases Rise Amid Fears True Figure Much Higher
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/india-coronavirus-cases-rise-amid-fears-true-figure-much-higher

Doubt has been cast over India’s claim that it has no community transmission of coronavirus after the country reported its biggest daily rise in number of cases so far, connected to a religious gathering held in Delhi two weeks ago.

India reported a record increase of 386 cases in the past 24 hours, pushing the total number to 1,637, according to the country’s health ministry. The death toll is now 38.

In another worrying development, the first coronavirus case was also confirmed in Mumbai’s Dharavi slum, which is India’s largest and is home to almost one million people living in close, unsanitary quarters. The 56-year-old man was taken to Sion hospital and eight of his family members placed into quarantine.

... India spends only about 1.3% of its GDP on public health, among the lowest in the world. Only 47,951 tests have been done so far and there are just 51 government-approved testing centres across the country.

... A recent report, jointly published by three American universities and the Delhi School of Economics, claimed that India could have as many as 1.3 million coronavirus infections by mid-May.

... Doctors in hospitals across India said the lack of proper protective equipment available for medical staff, including basic masks, meant that patients presenting with coronavirus symptoms were being turned away. Doctors in Kolkata described how they were made to wear plastic raincoats to examine possible coronavirus patients, while a doctor in a Delhi hospital resorted to wearing a motorcycle helmet to cover his face.

One junior doctor working in a Kolkata hospital where coronavirus patients are being treated, described how “for over a week, we came in close contact with suspected corona patients without proper protective gear … We all are left at the mercy of God.”

The doctor also cast aspersions on the claim that the disease was not already spreading within impoverished communities.

“Every day thousands of people gather here, seeking treatment for many infectious diseases. Last week, I noticed, hundreds of people, with many coughing, having fever and breathing problems stood on queue waiting for their turn to be examined by us,” he said

“They stood in the queue for hours and many of them were coughing and sneezing. I have every reason to believe many were carriers of Covid-19 who spread the infection to people in that same line, who in turn are now spreading it in the community … hundred or thousand times more people should be tested for the infection. Otherwise, the coronavirus situation will turn unmanageable.”

... "This will not end well"

---------------------------

... and in the US

https://mobile.twitter.com/racheljulie/status/1245114069339852802

I’m a physician at a hospital in NYC and THIS IS THE “PPE” I WAS JUST HANDED for my shift. Our federal government has completely failed its health care workers



And two N95 masks PER WEEK?!

(... and they're not even a Yankees fan!)

--------------------------------

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Encourages Residents to Wear Face Coverings in Public
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti said on Wednesday that residents should wear face coverings or homemade masks when out in public.

Although the CDC does not currently recommend that healthy people wear masks, an increasing number of officials are recommending them to Americans to slow the spread of COVID-19. Garcetti said he expected the official advice to be updated soon. Earlier on Wednesday, President Trump said that people could wear scarves to cover their mouths.

“I think it is time for us to do this,” Garcetti said. “I know it will look surreal, we don’t have that cultural tradition of wearing masks.”

-----------------------------

Trump Says Government Ordered Hospital Gowns From Walmart
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-live-updates.html

President Donald Trump said that he spoke to Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and put in a “big big order” for gowns.

“Let it be shipped directly to the side of the hospital because we save a lot of time when we do that,” Trump said.

Doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers around the country have called for more “PPE” or personal protective equipment like gowns and facemasks to protect them from the coronavirus while working at hospitals.

---------------------------
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 03:26:59 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4611 on: April 02, 2020, 02:44:35 AM »
Climate Summit Postponed
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/chief-coronavirus-worst-crisis-wwii-live-updates-200331233659496.html

A climate summit that had been due to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed to 2021 due to the coronavirus outbreak, Finland said.

"Glasgow's COP26 climate conference will move from November to next year due to the global coronavirus situation," said a statement from Finland's environment ministry, which quoted UN climate officials.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4612 on: April 02, 2020, 03:07:27 AM »
Russian President Vladimir Putin Holds Government Meeting by Video Conference
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/chief-coronavirus-worst-crisis-wwii-live-updates-200331233659496.html

It comes a day after a doctor who met Putin last week said he had been diagnosed with the virus. Denis Protsenko last week gave Putin a tour of Moscow’s main coronavirus hospital and shook hands with the Russian leader. Protsenko is now self-isolating in his office, Reuters reports.



The Kremlin, which has said that everything is fine with Putin’s health, said he is keeping his distance from other people and preferred to work remotely.

-----------------------------

Putin Grants Government Emergency Powers
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/chief-coronavirus-worst-crisis-wwii-live-updates-200331233659496.html

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation to allow the government to declare a state of national emergency in an effort to stem the spread of coronavirus.

Only the president can declare a state of emergency after he has formally received the support of the upper house of parliament, but lawmakers on Tuesday passed legislation granting the cabinet of ministers the same emergency powers.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4613 on: April 02, 2020, 03:42:16 AM »
Oh boi  :-[
Link >> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3641067/

Why might there be a causal link between the prevalence of infectious diseases in the local ecology and an authoritarian system of governance?

This is BS science.

Does prevalence of of the disease cause authoritarian systems no it does not. They just don´t care about cleaning up the mess. As your normal strong man does I am going to fix X and it is never something like clearing out malaria.

Map back the prevalence of infectious diseases by geographical range and plot the governments, possibly read Guns Germs and Steel as a light introduction.

Mostly it´s early cards dealt and then what comes up on the flop (was the tonnage of bombs dropped on Korea helpful to fighting their local authoritarian system, did it anything to stop infecteous diseases etc).

Basically disease burden is a shared social burden and how you handle it improves or deteriorates your society.

Then again this totally looks at drawing meaningless lines while ignoring what could have been done in the broad scheme.

Our societies are not being optimized to what could have been done for all.

 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4614 on: April 02, 2020, 03:57:58 AM »
Coronavirus: Brazil Is Headed Toward a 'Perfect Storm'
https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-brazil-is-headed-toward-a-perfect-storm/a-52983547

Brazil's overburdened public health system is not only gearing up to fight the new coronavirus, but also two other epidemics. Meanwhile the president preaches against isolation measures.

April would have been a busy month for Brazilian hospitals anyway. As the population still struggles with the dengue virus, influenza season will start kicking in.

But this year, the strained healthcare system promises to see the "perfect storm," according to the Health Surveillance Secretary Wanderson Oliveira.

"We will have the coronavirus, which is new, we will have influenza, which is routine every year, and we will also have the peak of dengue," he told reporters on Thursday.

Brazil's health ministry has identified more than 5,700 cases of the new coronavirus and at least 201 deaths, the highest records in Latin America.

The pandemic coincides with more than 440,000 suspected dengue cases just this year, according to the ministry. That is almost double the cases that Brazil saw during this time frame in 2019. While dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-borne virus, is not as deadly as COVID-19, it is widespread in tropical areas and requires significant medical attention.

"The biggest challenge is treating these increasing [coronavirus] cases — on top of old problems — in a system that was already overburdened because of progressive defunding," said Gulnar Azevedo e Silva, an epidemiologist and researcher at Rio de Janeiro's state university UERJ.

One of the reasons the SUS has missed out on funding is because the government froze all social spending for 20 years under the last president, Michel Temer, supported by wealthy land owners.

... To control the narrative, the Bolsonaro government has decided that it needs to approve all ministries' press releases about the coronavirus. In the first joint press conference about the pandemic on Monday, the health minister only got to speak last.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4615 on: April 02, 2020, 03:58:28 AM »
A friend asked me to give my assessment of the situation in Australia today based on my amateur knowledge.
It turned into a 700 word FB post.

I figured that I would share it here to see what feedback I might get from those who know more than me about this.

Here is what I wrote:

The situation
5100 cases
24 dead

At current restrictions, I believe we will have about a 3% growth rate per day.

This gives us about 7100 cases on 15th April. We really should be happy with that given the no response would have us there now with at least 20% growth per day.

Deaths.
This is trickier. The way I estimate this is to have the active cases from 14 days earlier (so… now and about 4500) and put 15% into hospital (675) with about 20% of those people dying. Or 135 deaths.

The tricky part of this estimate is the assumption that we have enough ICU beds with ventilators for all cases. At 675, it might be a stretch BUT the Govt is organising more ICU beds with ventilators. Assuming this happens as fast as the growth in severe cases, the 135 would be about right.

So, at this point in time, this is going relatively well in Australia, the isolation and economic pain is saving lives.

Now……. Is this a situation that can last as is?

To me, this is an unsustainable situation for more than several months.
The variabilities of people who have no symptoms or mild symptoms are quite large. There are massive gaps in knowledge that makes it very difficult to know the path forward.
What we do know is if left unrestrained this virus will wreak havoc on us. You just need to look at Italy, Spain and the growing pains in the USA to know that. So unrestrained is not a real option unless the consequences are acceptable (they are not acceptable)

But, we have this weird reality that we also cant have severe restrictions as an ongoing event.
We have 26 million people of which at least 70% (or as high as 90%) of the population needs to catch it to gain herd immunity. To reach that in one year, we need to have about 50,000 cases per day. And since we have a hospital system that will struggle at 500 per day, the logistics of this occurring are, to put it mildly, difficult.

This is a problem that our politicians with expert advice will need to figure out.
And relying on a vaccine to save us is a gamble. We might get one, we might not. We need to act as if there will not be a vaccine because there are too many unknowns involved to rely on it.

I personally have no answers for the above problem. There is a balance that needs to be found though because, as much as economy is not as important and our lives, we need the economy to service our basic needs of shelter, food and water, security etc etc.

We need to ensure that people can cope with an ongoing event, so there are massive concerns about the mental health of the population, beginning with people who currently have those struggles to those will probably develop them over the duration of this event.

There is the issue of sorting our incomes for everyone. This is a no brainer to me in that a universal basic income is the answer, but I don’t know if our politicians will do that given their piecemeal approach that ignores huge groups of people.

In short, though, Australia has potentially stopped the unrestricted spread of Covid. It looks like it to me.

Now we need to wait two weeks to find out….. if my estimates are about right, we are good. That is when Australia can move into a phase of figuring out how to reach herd immunity with as little pain as possible as quickly as possible. For that to happen, we really need to rethink how we do things economically.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4616 on: April 02, 2020, 04:41:10 AM »
Experts Question Practicality of Testing In COVID-19 Response
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/experts-question-practicality-testing-covid-19-response

... "Anyone who puts a plan on the table should be congratulated," said Michael T. Osterholm, MPH, PhD, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), which publishes CIDRAP News. "But the plans have to be based on a sense of realism, and testing is going to be part of an ever-growing challenge as we deal with a lack of reagents and supplies."

Health experts from the Mayo Clinic to King County, Washington caution, that although testing is critical, it might not be possible at the levels needed to facilitate proposed plans. Even now, testing in most states is reserved for healthcare workers, or patients so sick they require hospitalization.

At the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minnesota, Bobbi Pritt, MD, the director of the clinical parasitology laboratory, thinks about testing shortages every day.

"There's nationwide shortages of the swabs and reagents to run the tests," said Pritt. "We are all trying to look for alternatives and conduct the studies to show [that] alternatives are safe and accurate."

... "The biggest limitation we face is the test itself," said Pritt. "Mayo developed our own test, but we aren't going to meet the volume needed, so we implemented a commercial test on top of that, and now we are running three different tests to offer some back-up."

... "A lot of plans proposed imagine unlimited testing capacity and instantaneous results, which would necessitate a public health army that doesn't exist," said Duchin. He said that in absence of a total Wuhan, China-style lockdown, containment of the virus would require a robust, boots-on-the-ground contact tracing effort that would require public health employees that no state or county currently has.

... "If people are willing to fund and staff [them], it might be feasible if transmission dynamics of the disease make it a rational option. But in absence of a total lockdown, it's too much work."

... Duchin said he sees serologic testing, which would detect COVID-19 antibodies in the blood, as potentially informing public health strategy. "With serology we would know what proportion of the population remains vulnerable, and which remain susceptible."

... "We can't be relying on testing moving forward to be the only indicator," Wendell said. "We needed to have eyes on other indicators for illness, in order to put down on paper how all these pieces fit together.

---------------------------------

Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e1.htm?s_cid=mm6914e1_w

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6914e1-H.pdf

Preliminary evidence indicates the occurrence of presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, based on reports of individual cases in China.

What is added by this report?

Investigation of all 243 cases of COVID-19 reported in Singapore during January 23–March 16 identified seven clusters of cases in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the occurrence of secondary cases.

What are the implications for public health practice?

The possibility of presymptomatic transmission increases the challenges of containment measures. Public health officials conducting contact tracing should strongly consider including a period before symptom onset to account for the possibility of presymptomatic transmission. The potential for presymptomatic transmission underscores the importance of social distancing, including the avoidance of congregate settings, to reduce COVID-19 spread.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4617 on: April 02, 2020, 04:41:39 AM »
Quote
That is when Australia can move into a phase of figuring out how to reach herd immunity with as little pain as possible as quickly as possible.

Have you heard of the saying, "fake it till you make it"?

 You fake immunity until you have immunity. How do you fake immunity? How do healthcare workers work with infectious diseases all their life without getting infected? By knowing the routes of infection and meticulously protecting themselves using the correct PPE and procedures. Knowledge is power, especially against an invisible enemy.

Science may not know how to cure C19, but science knows exactly how to prevent infection. In the case of respiratory bugs that transmit through droplets and aerosols, masks, hand washing and hygiene will protect from most infections. 

So while the people are sheltering in place, people should prepare to use masks for months. Let's take these few weeks to make a homemade mask and make sure that all factories than can produce masks are producing masks. By the time infection peaks and drops, the people should be properly trained on how to use masks and have plenty of masks available.

Will this avoid another outbreak? Yes but only if testing and contact tracing are taken to the next level. If testing and contact tracing are weak there will be an outbreak again.

Hopefully, in a few months, health practitioners can optimize their techniques to minimize C19 fatalities significantly. We can also hope for a vaccine.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4618 on: April 02, 2020, 05:03:08 AM »
FT is now graphing daily death toll rather than cumulative cases.

More good maps and graphics at the site.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4619 on: April 02, 2020, 05:10:05 AM »
...
I follow the statistics, projections and reports published daily by Swedish health authorities. As of today some new advice and recommendations regarding distancing on public transport and in supermarkets were published. It is now forbidden to visit care homes for the elderly.
...

Swedish bureaucracy at its worst. On Tuesday March 31 they finally decided that our elderly need to be protected. WOW!

For how long did they already know that C19 kills first of all the sick and elderly? First reports about this came in the beginning of February afaik. Statistics and scientifical evidence from Wuhan. More than 6 weeks were lost doing nothing to protect our most vulnerable groups.

Due to their negligence to react and to act in due time on evidence they had, those Swedish politicians and bureaucrats are actively killing our elderly.
Murderers they are.

Ridiculous inflammatory language.

As long as there was no community spread, it did not make any difference, right?

Then there was an advice, which many people listened to.

Now there is an order not to visit relatives in care homes (but I doubt whether it is legally enforceable).

And in the end, it won't make much of a difference. Staff will still go in and out, and have closer contact with the old than what visitors have.

charles_oil

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4620 on: April 02, 2020, 05:40:49 AM »
Thanks Sigma S for the link - though I find the log scale a challenge - a flattening curve on these graphs may still actually be an accelerating upward curve in actual numbers......    The WHO site(s) are linear but dont give deaths - just cases - and there is such a disparity in testing that its hard to compare - hopefully though within each country there is some consistency.     https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ead3c6475654481ca51c248d52ab9c61

wehappyfew

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4621 on: April 02, 2020, 05:49:06 AM »
The interactive graphs on this site are good:

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

charles_oil

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4622 on: April 02, 2020, 05:58:20 AM »

Thanks - yes - and easy to toggle log/linear - I'm happy alone ;)


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4623 on: April 02, 2020, 06:08:20 AM »
You don't have any clue how the Swedish health care ... bla bla bla ...

What the hell was that? You insult someone, then write a lot of words without saying anything at all. What is your point?

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4624 on: April 02, 2020, 06:18:36 AM »
hopefully though within each country there is some consistency.     

I'm not so sure. Alberta has done an outstanding job of testing, along with contact tracing, social distancing and communication, but the testing strategy has changed over time and slowed down when they were low on reagents.

Initially they tested symptomatic returning travelers, then mandated that all returning travelers self-isolate for 14 days. Currently they're requiring anyone with symptoms to remain at home until they are symptom free and 10 days have passed since symptom onset. Tests are reserved for people being hospitalized, health care workers with suspected cases, people in long term care facilities and some community surveillance.

I think this is sound public health policy, but it means many people with symptoms recover at home so aren't included in case counts now, while they were earlier if they were returning travelers or close contacts.

This is a jurisdiction with a small number of cases and a well functioning health system. It sounds like places such as New York or Italy are more constrained with their tests, so I don't know how confirmed cases are determined, or how this evolved over time.

This might be one reason why the FT moved from graphing confirmed cases to deaths, though as others have pointed out there are potential issues with those numbers as well.

https://covid19stats.alberta.ca/
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 07:11:40 AM by sigma_squared »

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4625 on: April 02, 2020, 06:49:59 AM »
...
I follow the statistics, projections and reports published daily by Swedish health authorities. As of today some new advice and recommendations regarding distancing on public transport and in supermarkets were published. It is now forbidden to visit care homes for the elderly.
...

Swedish bureaucracy at its worst. On Tuesday March 31 they finally decided that our elderly need to be protected. WOW!

For how long did they already know that C19 kills first of all the sick and elderly? First reports about this came in the beginning of February afaik. Statistics and scientifical evidence from Wuhan. More than 6 weeks were lost doing nothing to protect our most vulnerable groups.

Due to their negligence to react and to act in due time on evidence they had, those Swedish politicians and bureaucrats are actively killing our elderly.
Murderers they are.

Ridiculous inflammatory language.

As long as there was no community spread, it did not make any difference, right?

If you want to protect the sick and elderly you have to enforce the protection before there is community spread, not after the virus is already on the loose! Incubation time up to 3 weeks was established very early on in China. Also the age profile of the fatalities, as well as comorbidities were established in the first week of February, if not earlier. THAT was the time to react!

Quote
Then there was an advice, which many people listened to.
Now there is an order not to visit relatives in care homes (but I doubt whether it is legally enforceable).
And in the end, it won't make much of a difference. Staff will still go in and out, and have closer contact with the old than what visitors have.

Now is too late anyway. Too many of the nurses and doctors and staff and visitors carry the virus with them. There is no testing at all of the healthcare staff, no-one knows who's infected and who's not.

Politicians and bureaucrats only enforce this no visitors rule in a desperate attempt to show that they are doing something. As a results 1000's of people will unnecessarily die. I call it murder due to negligience.

Pietkuip, You display exactly the perverted attitude that Swedish authorities have had all along.
No, nothing makes much of a difference for those irresponsible people, as long as they continue to get their salaries for doing nothing.

I suppose you would agree about the same argumentation of what's been going on in the USA with Trumpadmin delaying action for 6 weeks or so?! - Murder by negligience it is.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4626 on: April 02, 2020, 07:02:04 AM »
I'm very surprised about what we hear from Swedish posters here. One who is in utter denial, calls others denialist. Normally reasonable people dismiss the most necessary things to do.

What is going on in Sweden all of a sudden? Do you guys have a magic pill there or what?

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4627 on: April 02, 2020, 07:11:56 AM »
Would the esteemed posters here not take everything so personally??
It is possible to have different opinions, even in a matter as heavy and important as the coronavirus issue.
Pietkuip and GrubbenGrabben are representing their government's position quite faithfully.  They are entitled to it, once the experiment is over we can see who was right. All sides should state their opinions clearly and with as little emotion as possible, or the discussion here will generate further.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4628 on: April 02, 2020, 07:13:53 AM »
Normally reasonable people dismiss the most necessary things to do.

What is going on in Sweden all of a sudden? Do you guys have a magic pill there or what?

Happens in Finland too, normally reasonable people argue they do not have the disease and won't catch it, so the restrictions are wrong and unnecessary. Of course they later say that they'll go to quarantine if they get it, but before it happens, they'll move about like before.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4629 on: April 02, 2020, 07:21:25 AM »
... and are contagious without knowing it - going around killing people.

I don't get this ignorance.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4630 on: April 02, 2020, 07:22:10 AM »
Israel has done a decent job in testing, focusing not just on severe cases and trying to stay ahead of the curve. Here are the stats on symptoms among those diagnosed:
Respiratory symptoms + fever - 36%
Respiratory symptoms, no fever - 23%
Fever, no respiratory symptoms - 12%
No fever, no respiratory symptoms - 12%
Clinical evaluation still unknown - 17%

Even considering biases in testing, this supports the conclusion that there is no huge pool of asymptomatic cases to confer herd immunity in an easy manner.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4631 on: April 02, 2020, 07:25:08 AM »
Would the esteemed posters here not take everything so personally??

GrubbenGrabben called Gandul a denier, not the other way around.

Quote
They are entitled to it,

“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.”

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4632 on: April 02, 2020, 07:43:12 AM »
Guys, why the insults and accusations? On a scientific forum we should find differing approaches interesting.

In 6 to 12 months time we will see what was the human and economic toll in Sweden compared to her neighbours. Sweden might be a relative “winner” in this although my gut feeling is they have underestimated the virus and find themselves in a more difficult position that what was necessary.

One thing to remember is that no country is completely free of Covid19 yet. China has banned all foreign nationals from entering the country until further notice. Such measures will have devastating consequences on smaller and weaker economies, especially the ones dependant on tourism.

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4633 on: April 02, 2020, 08:04:44 AM »
On a scientific forum we should find differing approaches interesting.

I can not always separate out  the death already happening and the horror of the toll that is to come from my comments.
Also I are not only commenting here. Some of the frustration generated by trying to fend off the idiocy being posted else where  bleeds into my comments here .

As always oren attempts to keep it polite and productive .
Thanks Sensei .
And an apology to all if I don't always meet your standards .

 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

JMP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4634 on: April 02, 2020, 08:11:31 AM »
Can anyone show statistics to prove Sweden wrong at this point?

The most shocking thing to me is the statistical lack of difference between these different approaches from various countries, with some exceptions like Taiwan, which now seems so exemplary. 

We can do so much with data nowadays, I've read that there were US intelligence briefings indicating knowledge of the possibility of what is happening now, way back in January - presumably other countries had those warnings too?  Yet almost everyone is standing around caught with their pants down? 

In the US it's obvious that leadership failed at the very top early-on but why are so few other countries doing remarkably better?   As I mentioned, here in the US others did step up to promote social distancing but...?    Why aren't there more countries much closer to doing as well as Taiwan rather than as poorly as the US?   

I'm worried that the rural US will be the next wave and then too India??? 

So much of how to prevent this spreading has been known.    We should have already done so much better.  Humans...  go figure. 
   








El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4635 on: April 02, 2020, 08:44:16 AM »
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018740956/pandemic-scientist-makes-breakthrough-on-covid-19-cure

On Monday he tweeted that a development was imminent.

"I'm happy to report that my team has successfully taken five antibodies that back in 2002 were determined to bind and neutralise, block and stop the SARS virus," Dr Glanville told Checkpoint.

"We've evolved them in our laboratory, so now they very vigorously block and stop the SARS-CoV-2 [Covid-19] virus as well.

"This makes them suitable medicines that one could use once they've gone through human testing to treat the virus," Dr Glanville said.

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4636 on: April 02, 2020, 08:53:28 AM »
Can anyone show statistics to prove Sweden wrong at this point?

Have a look at the numbers from these  country's.

I have  used these examples because they have more in common culturally  than other choices that are graphed out on this site.

 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/

Notice anything in new cases and deaths?
Three have flattened the growth one has not.

Remember this is exponential if left unchecked. If you fail to curb the growth  it can very quickly get out of control and beyond the capacity of your health system to cope with new ICU  cases.
It is not about the raw numbers today it is where you are heading .

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4637 on: April 02, 2020, 08:54:05 AM »
Can anyone show statistics to prove Sweden wrong at this point?
   

No, you can't have future statistics today.

What happens today will show it's consequences only delayed.

The delay is a function of incubation time, a contagious period without symptoms and people not developing symptoms at all who are contagious nonetheless.

JMP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4638 on: April 02, 2020, 09:20:31 AM »
Can anyone show statistics to prove Sweden wrong at this point?
   

No, you can't have future statistics today.

What happens today will show it's consequences only delayed.

The delay is a function of incubation time, a contagious period without symptoms and people not
developing symptoms at all who are contagious nonetheless.


Yeah... that's so obvious... I almost hope there was translation difficulty.

But, comparing the statistics (as equal as we can make them) between various countries we do not see so much variation.  Can we agree on that? 
   
I do apologize for not being adequately more fluent in other languages to help facilitate communication. 
   
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 09:26:45 AM by JMP »

RikW

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4639 on: April 02, 2020, 09:24:07 AM »
Yes.
This is a horrible pandemic.
We must look back to the 1918 influenza to grasp its severity. 

And, our focus should be on the science rather than the blame.

We may never forget those who've failed,  but we must also move on, and right now. 

Support your local healthcare workers if you can.   If the doctors die... what have we???

I think 1918 was much worse. Especially economically. But these days we don't expect such diseases anymore. We aren't, luckily, used to it anymore because our healthcare is and vaccination programs are much better then they were a decade ago.

Spanish Flu:
50-200M deaths, and the young people (20-40 years) were hit hard. World population was around 1.8B, so 3-11% died;

Corona:
Mortality on the whole population without health care collapsing around 1% at most I think. Based on Taiwan and South Korea numbers, who have the most thorough testing going on.
With health care collapsing it's around 3-5%, but mostly elderly people with a large part of those having health issues already.
In the Netherlands they tested medical staff one of the hospitals and of that group 97% had mild symptoms/ no hospitalization required. And yes, that is a younger aged group, since above 65 most people are retired

So I think the 1% if the whole population gets infected and health care won't collapse is a realistic/ maybe even too high percentage. And when it collapses it will probably 3-5 times as high, with mostly the elderly (65+) and those with health problems won't survive.

It's creepy and insensitive to say, but the economic impact of this group dying will be relative small; Most of them would have costed society more in the rest of their live then what they pay. I don't say we should just let the virus run! But I think the economic impact of this crisis will be minor, if it doesn't take too long.

And yeah, it won't surprise me if western countries will probably be hit harder than developing countries. Because even though we have better health care, it won't be enough in a lot of countries. If you can't help 50% of those who need hospitalization, it doesn't matter for those if your health care is brilliant or the worst of the worst. So then the population composition will have a huge impact. And in the west we are older, have more people having old age ailments and we live unhealthy (lot's of people to heavy f.e.).

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4640 on: April 02, 2020, 09:31:12 AM »
Edit: I made a mistake and attributed this quote to JMP.... is was actually RikW

It's creepy and insensitive to say, but the economic impact of this group dying will be relative small; Most of them would have costed society more in the rest of their live then what they pay.

This line of thinking is really beginning to piss me off.
It shows a callous way of looking at human life.

Maybe I have been skewed because I spend a few years living in a Samoan village where the elders were held in high regard, given respect and given due courtesy for the things they have done, and for the wisdom they share that holds much more value than anything a stupid economy has to offer.

Seriously, people just need to stop thinking that it isnt a problem if it only kills old people.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 10:12:17 AM by Rodius »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4641 on: April 02, 2020, 09:31:16 AM »
But, comparing the statistics (as equal as we can make them) between various countries we do not see so much variation.  Can we agree on that?

I do see a lot of variation here >> https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Quote
I do apologize for not being adequately more fluent in other languages to help facilitate communication.

No need to apologize at all. I think i understand you well.

RikW

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4642 on: April 02, 2020, 09:44:43 AM »
It's creepy and insensitive to say, but the economic impact of this group dying will be relative small; Most of them would have costed society more in the rest of their live then what they pay.

This line of thinking is really beginning to piss me off.
It shows a callous way of looking at human life.

Maybe I have been skewed because I spend a few years living in a Samoan village where the elders were held in high regard, given respect and given due courtesy for the things they have done, and for the wisdom they share that holds much more value than anything a stupid economy has to offer.

Seriously, people just need to stop thinking that it isnt a problem if it only kills old people.

That's why you should read the whole post and not a single sentence.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4643 on: April 02, 2020, 09:46:25 AM »
Maybe I have been skewed

Be sure, Rodius, you are not at all skewed. This 'let them die because they are old and cost us all money' line of thinking is indeed despicable. There was never much humanity in humans, but this is throwing away any decency we have left.

It saddens me that people here get proctorized for using impolite words. But this misanthropic shit can stand ...

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4644 on: April 02, 2020, 09:49:14 AM »
That's why you should read the whole post and not a single sentence.

So, where exactly did you distance yourself from this? I can't find it!

JMP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4645 on: April 02, 2020, 09:53:50 AM »
Yes.
This is a horrible pandemic.
We must look back to the 1918 influenza to grasp its severity. 

And, our focus should be on the science rather than the blame.

We may never forget those who've failed,  but we must also move on, and right now. 

Support your local healthcare workers if you can.   If the doctors die... what have we???

I think 1918 was much worse. Especially economically. But these days we don't expect such diseases anymore. We aren't, luckily, used to it anymore because our healthcare is and vaccination programs are much better then they were a decade ago.

Spanish Flu:
50-200M deaths, and the young people (20-40 years) were hit hard. World population was around 1.8B, so 3-11% died;

Corona:
Mortality on the whole population without health care collapsing around 1% at most I think. Based on Taiwan and South Korea numbers, who have the most thorough testing going on.
With health care collapsing it's around 3-5%, but mostly elderly people with a large part of those having health issues already.
In the Netherlands they tested medical staff one of the hospitals and of that group 97% had mild symptoms/ no hospitalization required. And yes, that is a younger aged group, since above 65 most people are retired

So I think the 1% if the whole population gets infected and health care won't collapse is a realistic/ maybe even too high percentage. And when it collapses it will probably 3-5 times as high, with mostly the elderly (65+) and those with health problems won't survive.

It's creepy and insensitive to say, but the economic impact of this group dying will be relative small; Most of them would have costed society more in the rest of their live then what they pay. I don't say we should just let the virus run! But I think the economic impact of this crisis will be minor, if it doesn't take too long.

And yeah, it won't surprise me if western countries will probably be hit harder than developing countries. Because even though we have better health care, it won't be enough in a lot of countries. If you can't help 50% of those who need hospitalization, it doesn't matter for those if your health care is brilliant or the worst of the worst. So then the population composition will have a huge impact. And in the west we are older, have more people having old age ailments and we live unhealthy (lot's of people to heavy f.e.).
Of course I hope 1918 will prove to have been much worse but where is your evidence?

And, it's nonsense to say "western countries will probably be hit harder than developing countries. Because even though we have better health care, it won't be enough in a lot of countries. If you can't help 50% of those who need hospitalization it doesn't matter for those if your health care is brilliant or the worst of the worst"   

If the statistics do not align with expectations that does not magically indicate that up is down or some such silliness.  Better healthcare is its own reward.  Better is better!   

 

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4646 on: April 02, 2020, 09:57:12 AM »
And, it's nonsense to say "western countries will probably be hit harder than developing countries.

Nah, if you think western life is worth more than the lives of poor people in developing countries, this line of thinking makes total sense.

RikW

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4647 on: April 02, 2020, 10:01:29 AM »
So, where exactly did you distance yourself from this? I can't find it!
I don't say we should just let the virus run! But I think the economic impact of this crisis will be minor, if it doesn't take too long.

I think here. But our misunderstanding is probably because, at least for me, English isn't my mother language.

What I tried to say is that the economic impact of 1-5% of the world population dying won't collapse economy/ won't have a huge long-term economic impact, because of the age and health composition of the group that is killed by this virus. And those doom-stories about the severity of this crisis are baseless in my opinion.

And trying to save as many people as possible shouldn't be done because of the economy but because of moral obligation;

JMP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4648 on: April 02, 2020, 10:03:29 AM »
It's creepy and insensitive to say, but the economic impact of this group dying will be relative small; Most of them would have costed society more in the rest of their live then what they pay.

This line of thinking is really beginning to piss me off.
It shows a callous way of looking at human life.

Maybe I have been skewed because I spend a few years living in a Samoan village where the elders were held in high regard, given respect and given due courtesy for the things they have done, and for the wisdom they share that holds much more value than anything a stupid economy has to offer.

Seriously, people just need to stop thinking that it isnt a problem if it only kills old people.
Was almost about to apologize but - I did NOT! say that.... 
Please see above that you misquoted.  ???

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4649 on: April 02, 2020, 10:09:43 AM »
Can anyone show statistics to prove Sweden wrong at this point?

Have a look at the numbers from these  country's.

I have  used these examples because they have more in common culturally  than other choices that are graphed out on this site.

 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/

Notice anything in new cases and deaths?
Three have flattened the growth one has not.

Remember this is exponential if left unchecked. If you fail to curb the growth  it can very quickly get out of control and beyond the capacity of your health system to cope with new ICU  cases.
It is not about the raw numbers today it is where you are heading .
It wll be hard to prove Sweden wrong just by it having a higher number of deaths in the coming weeks. Sweden does not claim people will not die but it claims it will reach herd immunity faster. So total deaths per capita are the important statistic.
To prove soon that Sweden is wrong is only if its healthcare system becomes overwhelmed, because then there will be more total deaths compared to flatten the curve measures.
I hope there is no overwhelm, though I expect there will be.