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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 281120 times)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4850 on: April 04, 2020, 08:13:34 AM »
Mar 25 1000  Ahead of schedule. At least they had the "courtesy" of not reporting during market hours.

But this thing can't keep doubling every 2 days. A lot of places called for stay in place today.  A lot of place didn't. let's hope it goes back to doubling every 3 days.

Mar 25 1000
Mar 28 2000
Mar 31 4000
Apr 3   8000
Apr 6  16000

There is no reason to go any further than that. Surely people in the US will come to their senses before then.

Apr 3 7393

A slow down. That's good even if not significant. I hope this was not just a reporting problem.

I'm going to use this number as the new base. Many states have finally put stay at home advisories. Maybe doublings occur every 4 days for 2 dates and then a doubling every 5 days for 2 dates. Given the measures taken to date, the final numbers for the initial wave shouldn't be much larger than 118,288. An order of magnitude larger at most, as long as quarantine is maintained. The number will not be much smaller than that. That number excludes non-covid deaths

Apr 3 7393
Apr 7  14,786
Apr 11 29,572
Apr 16 59,144
Apr 21 118,288
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4851 on: April 04, 2020, 10:20:32 AM »
Back to Iceland, where it seems that deCode Genetics is actually trying to create truly random samples:

https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/icelands-coronavirus-testing-global-pandemic-response/

Here is what the CEO says:

"The testing has been going on for 15 days – there was a little pause in the middle because we were missing swabs – but all of these 15 days, the rate of positives has been a little bit below one percent, which makes it likely that this is the true population prevalence. Today we are calling in people randomly, just selecting at random from the telephone directory. There is probably no perfect way to get a random sample. But I think it is very likely that the number is going to turn out in the end to be somewhat close to this number, probably somewhere between 0.5-1%."

Conclusion: at the beginning of April Iceland had 2-4 thousand cases in reality (official number 1364). Let's wait then 17.8 days and see how many dead they have on Apr 20 (today they have 4). That will give us the true mortality rate.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4852 on: April 04, 2020, 11:26:44 AM »
Some nice modelling at James' Empty Blog. (Climate modeller goes amateur epidemiologist, and since he is a good modeller and a lot of epidemiologists aren't there's some interesting results)

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-can-we-learn-from-wuhan.html

There isn't really even a hint of how effective the lockdown is until 3 weeks afterwards, 4 weeks and its clear its "working", but it takes 5 weeks to get a decent estimate of how well its working.

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/04/lombardy-lockdown-is-working.html

With some tweaks to the modelling 26 days is enough to get the evidence its working (24 wasn't).

One point I hadn't realised before reading these blogs is that the suppression doesn't have to knock R below 1 to control the epidemic, if R is still a little over 1, herd immunity levels are low enough that it comes into play.


wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4853 on: April 04, 2020, 12:13:19 PM »
ElCid wrote: "17.8 days..."

Again, it can take 8 weeks from being symptomatic to death with this thing. (How many times do I have to repeat this?)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4854 on: April 04, 2020, 01:06:31 PM »
(How many times do I have to repeat this?)
33 times

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4855 on: April 04, 2020, 01:22:29 PM »
El Cid, thanks for these Iceland updates, very interesting.
Bear in mind about a third to a half of deaths occur after 18 days or more. 17.8 is just the median or average, not sure which. People infected on the Diamond Princess are still dying as of last week and many are still hospitalized. So the numbers from Iceland in 18 days should give us an underestimate of the (non-overwhelm) death rate, which probably needs to be mutiplied by 1.5 for the true death rate.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 01:28:02 PM by oren »

OrganicSu

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4856 on: April 04, 2020, 01:34:21 PM »
Peace is found inside gratefulness.
Difficult, crazy, heartless etc. as it may sound, finding a way to be grateful for this virus, brings peace.

No government and no segment of society (not even on this forum) could envisage trying to address AGW as thoroughly as we now are. Assuming the drastic reduction in most forms of human consumption continues for many months, it will be the biggest action possible to slowing the metrics reflecting AGW (CO2 levels, Artic Ice extent and volume etc., temperature anomalies, etc. etc.). Lag times and the complexity within the causes and effects for each metric may mean we may never even see a measurable effect, but the benefits in this regard are undeniable.

The byproduct of this virus is that at last we are starting to tackle AGW on the scale that it deserves.
Society, when it passes out the other side of this virus, will be different. Now is a great time to envisage how to leverage the changes currently enforced to continue to address AGW with the urgency it deserves, for AGW is surely the biggest risk (many here would agree it's an existential risk).

And so, I find peace amid the unfolding tragedy, hoping we use this gift to tackle AGW (note: I have not yet found a way to be grateful for AGW. If anyone can help with that, I'd be very grateful indeed).

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4857 on: April 04, 2020, 01:43:11 PM »
I think there are good news in Spain. It is been almost a week since the peak in new cases. Yesterday, according the news, hospital admissions were less than half of what had been daily average of previous week. Deaths also below the peak.
Below new positives per day.
The government plans to extend the confinement (probably until end of month??) but anyway, this is really good news.
Yesterday government also hinted use of masks mandatory for everyone soon (apart from the mandatory gloves in the supermarkets). People are way ahead in that sense.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4858 on: April 04, 2020, 01:48:26 PM »
I think there are good news in Spain. It is been almost a week since the peak in new cases. Yesterday, according the news, hospital admissions were less than half of what had been daily average of previous week. Deaths also below the peak.
The Chinese showed that quarantine works. This should come as no surprise even though our leaders were stupidly slow to react and that cost a lot of lives. Shame.
Numbers should be topping right now in most European countries (not Sweden though)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4859 on: April 04, 2020, 02:05:39 PM »
That will give us the true mortality rate.

The "true" mortality rate is variable, according to the health care received. The IFR is not a fixed number.  0.5%-1% IFR in a place where everyone received optimal care shows that there is no iceberg underneath the tip of cases. What we see is what we get. This is a killer cough.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

charles_oil

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4860 on: April 04, 2020, 02:38:42 PM »
Archimid - thanks.    You say:

Given the measures taken to date, the final numbers for the initial wave shouldn't be much larger than 118,288. An order of magnitude larger at most, as long as quarantine is maintained.

Surely an order of magnitude = 10x is MUCH larger?

When they initially made these claims - 100 - 240k assuming quarantine continues - they implied it might be 2million plus if nothing is done - i.e no quarantine.  Presumably the messy situation with some states not on "stay at home" - or very late - and some exempting places of worship, result may well fall in the middle somewhere.  :(

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4861 on: April 04, 2020, 02:46:00 PM »
Expecting a steeper rise in Finnish cases in about a week, as the bars and restaurants will close about now (sorry for anyone getting this now as this closure should move the sick-ticker pointing downwards)
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

NevB

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4862 on: April 04, 2020, 03:02:38 PM »
Those following the BCG debate may be interested in this Australian Trial:

https://www.sciencealert.com/australia-is-trialling-a-tb-vaccine-for-coronavirus-and-health-workers-get-it-first

"Australia's Trialing a TB Vaccine Against COVID-19, And Health Workers Get It First

Australian researchers are fast-tracking large-scale human testing to see if a vaccine used for decades to prevent tuberculosis can protect health workers from COVID-19, they announced Friday."

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4863 on: April 04, 2020, 03:04:19 PM »
I would like to come back to a link that was given here a few days ago, which I found had some really important information on the lethality of C19 on population level. This is what the mayor of Nembro writes:

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31 (...)"

As we all know, Italy has had a lot of deaths in C19, but overall Italian mortality figures indicate a factor of at least 4 of underreporting C19 deaths, depending on which city you look at.

"The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive. In this case, the number of abnormal deaths compared to the average that Nembro recorded in the period of time in consideration is equal to 4 times those officially attributed to Covid-19."

I think this is the real end-game story, after all cases are closed, all recoveries and all deaths are checked out of the system, we see that there were very many people who perished from C19.

Why are the data so unreliable? Simply because very many of those who died were never swabbed, never tested, etc. So they never entered the system as C19 cases - they just died.

Please note that the lethality rate in C19 is 1% of the population. The figure is for the whole population of 11,500 people in Nembro. Assumedly they were all exposed to the virus, and those who could get infected got infected and herd immunity has now been reached, as the number of deaths have come down to their normal levels again. If Northern Italy is representative for other developed countries, we should expect to see the same lethality rate in other countries as well.

For the USA this indicates a number of deaths in the millions. Especially as the US population to a very large degree is affected by lifestyle diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension. This will not happen during the current first wave of infections, but that will be the end result, when we have reached herd immunity.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 03:10:44 PM by Hefaistos »

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4864 on: April 04, 2020, 03:24:55 PM »
Thank you for that Hefaistos
I would like to suggest that a 100% infection rate is highly unlikely.
More probable is the herd immunity of a total infection rate around 50 to 75% along with the actions taken has halted the virus spread giving a higher real death rate than 1%. 

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4865 on: April 04, 2020, 03:36:17 PM »
Profiting from misery: How Trump Team is making money from the pandemic

Quote
Want to know how it works?

1.) Eliminate oversight of the spending of nearly a trillion dollars of tax dollars: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/490737-stimulus-opens-new-front-in-trumps-oversight-fight

2.) Aquire the authority to command which businesses get which contracts:

3.) Have trusted people stand up companies through which the money can be funneled (3 week old company, founded through a loan approved via the Coronavirus Stimulus bill, is now the center of medical supply distribution): https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/27/republican-fundraiser-company-coronavirus-152184 “I don’t want to overstate, but we probably represent the largest global supply chain for Covid-19 supplies right now,” he said. “We are getting ready to fill 100 million-unit mask orders.”

4.) Have the federal government sell, at a reduced price, it’s strategic stockpile to the new companies, run by your buddies: https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1245841458323771393

5.) Have the states bid on the supplies, driving up the price:

6.) Have the federal government spend taxpayer dollars to ship supplies purchased from China to these brand new private companies: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823543513/project-airbridge-to-expedite-arrival-of-needed-supplies-white-house-says

7.) Eliminate the competition. Attack any company that doesn’t play ball. https://mothership.sg/2020/04/trump-3m-10-million-masks/

Quote
As is tradition for the GOP:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine

Quote
...Klein argues that neoliberal free market policies (as advocated by the economist Milton Friedman) have risen to prominence in some developed countries because of a deliberate strategy of "shock therapy)". This centers on the exploitation of national crises (disasters or upheavals) to establish controversial and questionable policies, while citizens are excessively distracted (emotionally and physically) to engage and develop an adequate response, and resist effectively.

Although even in times of peace and calm, the Republican party works hard to a) make sure sure your tax dollars are going to favored individuals and companies, and b) make sure you have to spend your non-tax dollars with favored companies. Michael Lewis detailed in The Fifth Risk how AccuWeather and Sen. Rick Santorum attempted this; it's just one example out of thousands over the years.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/fusxdh/profiting_from_misery_how_trump_team_is_making/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4866 on: April 04, 2020, 03:44:12 PM »
As of 9am on 4 April 2020, 183,190 people have been tested, of which 41,903 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 3 April 2020, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 4,313 have died.

9406 tests, 3735 cases, 708 deaths in the last day.
Down tick on tests and cases, uptick on deaths.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4867 on: April 04, 2020, 04:09:23 PM »
I would like to come back to a link that was given here a few days ago, which I found had some really important information on the lethality of C19 on population level. This is what the mayor of Nembro writes:

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31 (...)"

As we all know, Italy has had a lot of deaths in C19, but overall Italian mortality figures indicate a factor of at least 4 of underreporting C19 deaths, depending on which city you look at.

"The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive. In this case, the number of abnormal deaths compared to the average that Nembro recorded in the period of time in consideration is equal to 4 times those officially attributed to Covid-19."

I think this is the real end-game story, after all cases are closed, all recoveries and all deaths are checked out of the system, we see that there were very many people who perished from C19.

Why are the data so unreliable? Simply because very many of those who died were never swabbed, never tested, etc. So they never entered the system as C19 cases - they just died.

Please note that the lethality rate in C19 is 1% of the population. The figure is for the whole population of 11,500 people in Nembro. Assumedly they were all exposed to the virus, and those who could get infected got infected and herd immunity has now been reached, as the number of deaths have come down to their normal levels again. If Northern Italy is representative for other developed countries, we should expect to see the same lethality rate in other countries as well.

For the USA this indicates a number of deaths in the millions. Especially as the US population to a very large degree is affected by lifestyle diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension. This will not happen during the current first wave of infections, but that will be the end result, when we have reached herd immunity.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

There is likely some underreporting, especially among those already gravely ill.  C19 may have just pushed them over the edge.  Cause of death is not an exact science, as the medical examiner decides based on the evidence at the time.  I cannot speak to the specific case you state, but the global figures are not likely to be affected much now that the virus is widely known and spread. 

The IFR may be 1%.  I have seen many other experts give similar figures.  Granted, during a pandemic these numbers can vary widely and change daily.  That is 1% of those affect, NOT the population as a whole, unless the entire population gets infected.  That may have been the case in a small community like Nembro.  Extrapolating that to larger communities, countries, or the entire world, is poor science.  Millions will only die in the U.S., if the entire population becomes infected, and the IFR is 1%. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4868 on: April 04, 2020, 04:09:36 PM »
From the White House, Rear Adm. Polowczyk announces they are sending 200,000 N95 masks to a NY warehouse — where hospitals can bid on them and commercial distributors can make money on the transaction.  The government is not supplying any hospitals directly.
The Trump admin. becomes more insistent in their dismissals of direct government assistance: “We’re a backup.”

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-trump-is-not-a-wartime-president-81596997781


—- 
Tensions Persist Between Trump and Medical Advisers Over the Coronavirus
The president’s public refusal to wear a mask was the latest way he has cast doubt on their recommendations.
Quote
WASHINGTON — Rarely has the schism between President Trump and his own public health advisers over the coronavirus pandemic been put on display quite so starkly. Even as he announced a new federal recommendation on Friday that Americans wear masks when out in public, he immediately disavowed it: “I am choosing not to do it.”

The striking dichotomy underscored how often Mr. Trump has been at odds with the medical experts seeking to guide his handling of the outbreak as well as some of the governors fighting it on the front lines, despite his move to extend social distancing guidelines through April 30 and his acknowledgment that the death toll could be staggering.

While the health specialists and some governors press for a more aggressive, uniform national approach to the virus, the president has resisted expanding limits on daily life and sought to shift blame to the states for being unprepared to deal with the coronavirus. While they sound the alarm and call for more federal action, Mr. Trump has deflected responsibility and left it to others to take a more aggressive stance.

Some of the president’s health advisers in recent days have argued that restrictions on social interaction and economic activity that have shut down much of the nation need to be expanded to all 50 states and that more Americans need to adopt them. Mr. Trump, by contrast, has characterized the crisis as generally limited to hot spots like New York, California and Michigan and has expressed no support for a nationwide lockdown. “I would leave it to the governors,” he said on Friday.

As hospitals cope with shortages of medical equipment, the administration on Friday also rewrote the federal government’s stated mission for its stockpile of supplies to make clear that it sees itself as playing a secondary role to the states. Where the federal government once said the stockpile “ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need the most,” the revised version said the federal stockpile’s role was merely to “supplement state and local supplies.” ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-medical-advisers.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4869 on: April 04, 2020, 04:18:49 PM »
No wonder the governor of Florida (arguably the state with the most vulnerable, elderly population) refused to put the state on lockdown.  He had to wait for Trump to infect hundreds more people first.

Quote
Even as health experts were warning against large gatherings, President Donald Trump hosted a fundraising dinner for 900 and a birthday party in honor of his son’s girlfriend for 200 at his private Florida resort.

As mayors and governors began ordering nonessential businesses to shut down, Trump’s hotels and golf courses continued to solicit customers.

And as all Americans are advised to stay at least 6 feet away from one another, Trump appears ready to hit the golf course, forcing his staff to again work in close proximity to one another. ...
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-coronavirus-social-distancing-golf_n_5e87c167c5b6cc1e47754e1a
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4870 on: April 04, 2020, 04:29:12 PM »
Quote
Surely an order of magnitude = 10x is MUCH larger?

I was thinking "just" one order of magnitude up and half the number down.  Anywhere from 50k to 1 million.  That's just the peak of the first wave with a weak lockdown. From then on is up to our leaders. We can make it go extinct by taking decisive action or we can wait for "herd immunity", which will arrive much too late to be of any use. I bet vaccines arrive before herd immunity


The third route, the "die for the economy" route already failed. Too many people didn't walk into coronavirus "for the economy".   For the "die for the economy" strategy to work, people had to keep working and die at work and be creatively buried. The people are not doing that "for the economy". That path would not have lead to economic growth. The opposite was the end of that path.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4871 on: April 04, 2020, 04:31:01 PM »
New hospital with 4000 intensive care beds for COVID patients opened in London yesterday.
Built in 9 days.
5 others under construction in regional centres, with about 8000 more between them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52125059

That roughly doubles the pre-pandemic IC capacity of the UK in the one hospital, and the rest will double it again when they are done.


zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4872 on: April 04, 2020, 06:10:22 PM »
News bit from Germany:

https://www.presseportal.de/pm/58964/4564344

Quote
German Patient Protection Foundation: Pandemic cannot be contained without statistics on primary care - "Send doctors and nurses available in clinics to outpatient care and homes"

Patients' advocates accuse the federal government, the federal states and the Robert Koch Institute of failing to provide outpatient care for people infected with corona. It was "a scandal beyond compare that infections among geriatric nurses, general practitioners and medical assistants are not statistically recorded," said Eugen Brysch, board member of the German Patient Protection Foundation, in an interview with the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung" (NOZ). That is "a huge mistake".

The vast majority of infected people in Germany are not treated in hospitals, but outside, Brysch explained. This is also intended to relieve hospitals. However, there is currently no overview of basic medical and nursing care. "So the statistics must immediately cover this area too. In order to overcome the crisis, you have to look where it is being overcome."

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), 2,300 doctors and nurses are infected with Covid-19. However, only the clinic staff is recorded. The federal states also have no overview of the number of sick nurses and doctors outside the clinics, as research by "Süddeutscher Zeitung", NDR and WDR showed.

The RKI statistics "says nothing about the reality," criticized patient protector Brysch. This would "discriminate" those who bear the brunt of the crisis. "The most important firefighters in the fight against Corona are not in the eye of the federal, state and local crisis managers at all," said Brysch of the NOZ.

Hundreds of doctors' offices have already been closed due to infected personnel, and numerous nursing homes have imposed an admission freeze. In order to ensure care, the staff available in the clinics had to help out with outpatient care and in homes, Brysch said: "It is absurd if the first hospitals are now considering short-time work for their underutilized staff," said the foundation's board. "At the same time, dramatic scenes are taking place in nursing homes due to a lack of staff. So we need bridges instead of walls between the hospital and outpatient care."

His specific demand: "We need a pool in every community, in which doctors and nurses from hospitals and rehabilitation facilities work together with resident doctors and nursing staff," he said. "These teams have to be sent to where the need is greatest." So far, there has been a strict distinction between inpatient and outpatient. "But such a hard separation is fatal in times of crisis."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4873 on: April 04, 2020, 06:14:42 PM »
Why should there be “waves”? The disease spreads some in tropical countries, if a little slower, so summer won’t save us. It could just keep rising until we have all had it.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4874 on: April 04, 2020, 06:21:59 PM »
US Health weather map mentioned upthread, featured in this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-restrictions-fevers.html
Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest
Donald G. McNeil Jr
March 30, 2020

Quote
A database of daily fever readings shows that the numbers declined as people disappeared indoors.

Harsh measures, including stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures, are contributing to rapid drops in the numbers of fevers — a signal symptom of most coronavirus infections — recorded in states across the country, according to intriguing new data produced by a medical technology firm.

At least 248 million Americans in at least 29 states have been told to stay at home. It had seemed nearly impossible for public health officials to know how effective this measure and others have been in slowing the coronavirus.

But the new data offer evidence, in real time, that tight social-distancing restrictions may be working, potentially reducing hospital overcrowding and lowering death rates, experts said.

The company, Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives. ...

To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.

As of noon Wednesday, the company’s live map showed fevers holding steady or dropping almost universally across the country, with two prominent exceptions.

One was in a broad swath of New Mexico, where the governor had issued stay-at-home orders only the day before, and in adjacent counties in Southern Colorado. ...

By Friday morning, fevers in every county in the country were on a downward trend, depicted in four shades of blue on the map.

Fevers were dropping especially rapidly in the West, from Utah to California and from Washington down to Arizona; in many Western counties, the numbers of people reporting high fevers fell by almost 20 percent. The numbers were also declining rapidly in Maine.

The parts of New Mexico and Colorado that had been slightly “warm” on Wednesday were in light blue, indicating that they were cooling. So were the Louisiana counties.

As of Monday morning, more than three-quarters of the country was deep blue. A separate display of the collective national fever trend, which had spiked upward to a peak on March 17, had fallen so far that it was actually below the band showing historical flu fever trends — which meant that the lockdown has cut not only Covid-19 transmission but flu transmission, too.

I've been following the health weather map since the article appeared on Monday, March 30. The drop of the graph below typical range is impressive. It's true that the trend map was almost all blue, showing decreasing trend, when the article appeared, but since then more orange and red spots have appeared. Graph and map for the last two days are below.

https://healthweather.us/?mode=Trends
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 06:27:22 PM by sigma_squared »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4875 on: April 04, 2020, 06:31:56 PM »
I would like to come back to a link that was given here a few days ago, which I found had some really important information on the lethality of C19 on population level. This is what the mayor of Nembro writes:

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31 (...)"

As we all know, Italy has had a lot of deaths in C19, but overall Italian mortality figures indicate a factor of at least 4 of underreporting C19 deaths, depending on which city you look at.

"The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive. In this case, the number of abnormal deaths compared to the average that Nembro recorded in the period of time in consideration is equal to 4 times those officially attributed to Covid-19."

I think this is the real end-game story, after all cases are closed, all recoveries and all deaths are checked out of the system, we see that there were very many people who perished from C19.

Why are the data so unreliable? Simply because very many of those who died were never swabbed, never tested, etc. So they never entered the system as C19 cases - they just died.

Please note that the lethality rate in C19 is 1% of the population. The figure is for the whole population of 11,500 people in Nembro. Assumedly they were all exposed to the virus, and those who could get infected got infected and herd immunity has now been reached, as the number of deaths have come down to their normal levels again. If Northern Italy is representative for other developed countries, we should expect to see the same lethality rate in other countries as well.

For the USA this indicates a number of deaths in the millions. Especially as the US population to a very large degree is affected by lifestyle diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension. This will not happen during the current first wave of infections, but that will be the end result, when we have reached herd immunity.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

There is likely some underreporting, especially among those already gravely ill.  C19 may have just pushed them over the edge.  Cause of death is not an exact science, as the medical examiner decides based on the evidence at the time.  I cannot speak to the specific case you state, but the global figures are not likely to be affected much now that the virus is widely known and spread. 

The IFR may be 1%.  I have seen many other experts give similar figures.  Granted, during a pandemic these numbers can vary widely and change daily.  That is 1% of those affect, NOT the population as a whole, unless the entire population gets infected.  That may have been the case in a small community like Nembro.  Extrapolating that to larger communities, countries, or the entire world, is poor science.  Millions will only die in the U.S., if the entire population becomes infected, and the IFR is 1%.
I think the IFR us more like 2% in the Italian example, both because not all people got infected, and because deaths accumulation is far from over unfortunately.
This data should be highlighted. Not extrapolating it is IMHO poor science - unless a good reason is found for it to be very different in other locations.

Juan C. García

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4876 on: April 04, 2020, 06:36:39 PM »
The recovery seems like not a recovery:

Quote
The dark side of ventilators: Those hooked up for long periods face difficult recoveries

People who survive the most dire cases of disease caused by the novel coronavirus are about to learn one of the cruelest lessons of the pandemic: After defeating the virus, the really hard part begins.

Those saved through extreme medical interventions, including being attached to mechanical ventilators for a week or two, often suffer long-term physical, mental and emotional issues, according to a staggering body of medical and scientific studies. Even a year after leaving the intensive care unit, many people experience post-traumatic stress disorder, Alzheimer’s-like cognitive deficits, depression, lost jobs and problems with daily activities such as bathing and eating.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/
By Carolyn Y. Johnson and Ariana Eunjung Cha
April 3, 2020 at 12:49 p.m. CST
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4877 on: April 04, 2020, 07:23:20 PM »

Coronavirus lockdowns have changed the way Earth moves

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00965-x

Quote
Data from a seismometer at the observatory show that measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 in Brussels caused human-induced seismic noise to fall by about one-third, says Lecocq. The measures included closing schools, restaurants and other public venues from 14 March, and banning all non-essential travel from 18 March (see ‘Seismic noise’).

FTA

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4878 on: April 04, 2020, 08:02:26 PM »
I would like to come back to a link that was given here a few days ago, which I found had some really important information on the lethality of C19 on population level. This is what the mayor of Nembro writes:

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31 (...)"

As we all know, Italy has had a lot of deaths in C19, but overall Italian mortality figures indicate a factor of at least 4 of underreporting C19 deaths, depending on which city you look at.

"The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive. In this case, the number of abnormal deaths compared to the average that Nembro recorded in the period of time in consideration is equal to 4 times those officially attributed to Covid-19."

I think this is the real end-game story, after all cases are closed, all recoveries and all deaths are checked out of the system, we see that there were very many people who perished from C19.

Why are the data so unreliable? Simply because very many of those who died were never swabbed, never tested, etc. So they never entered the system as C19 cases - they just died.

Please note that the lethality rate in C19 is 1% of the population. The figure is for the whole population of 11,500 people in Nembro. Assumedly they were all exposed to the virus, and those who could get infected got infected and herd immunity has now been reached, as the number of deaths have come down to their normal levels again. If Northern Italy is representative for other developed countries, we should expect to see the same lethality rate in other countries as well.

For the USA this indicates a number of deaths in the millions. Especially as the US population to a very large degree is affected by lifestyle diseases such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension. This will not happen during the current first wave of infections, but that will be the end result, when we have reached herd immunity.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

There is likely some underreporting, especially among those already gravely ill.  C19 may have just pushed them over the edge.  Cause of death is not an exact science, as the medical examiner decides based on the evidence at the time.  I cannot speak to the specific case you state, but the global figures are not likely to be affected much now that the virus is widely known and spread. 

The IFR may be 1%.  I have seen many other experts give similar figures.  Granted, during a pandemic these numbers can vary widely and change daily.  That is 1% of those affect, NOT the population as a whole, unless the entire population gets infected.  That may have been the case in a small community like Nembro.  Extrapolating that to larger communities, countries, or the entire world, is poor science.  Millions will only die in the U.S., if the entire population becomes infected, and the IFR is 1%.
I think the IFR us more like 2% in the Italian example, both because not all people got infected, and because deaths accumulation is far from over unfortunately.
This data should be highlighted. Not extrapolating it is IMHO poor science - unless a good reason is found for it to be very different in other locations.

So you believe that Nembro is typical of the whole world?  This is a small community of about 11,000 inhabitants, which recorded 35 deaths.  Why extrapolate this area, when there is so much more data recorded elsewhere?

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4879 on: April 04, 2020, 08:34:14 PM »
So you believe that Nembro is typical of the whole world?  This is a small community of about 11,000 inhabitants, which recorded 35 deaths.  Why extrapolate this area, when there is so much more data recorded elsewhere?
I suggest you re-read the original quote:
This is what the mayor of Nembro writes:

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31 (...)"
To spell it out for you: Nembro should have had 35 deaths. Instead they've registered 158 deaths. But only attributed 31 to Covid-19.

That's why. Got it?
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4880 on: April 04, 2020, 08:35:23 PM »
The recovery seems like not a recovery:

Quote
The dark side of ventilators: Those hooked up for long periods face difficult recoveries

People who survive the most dire cases of disease caused by the novel coronavirus are about to learn one of the cruelest lessons of the pandemic: After defeating the virus, the really hard part begins.

Those saved through extreme medical interventions, including being attached to mechanical ventilators for a week or two, often suffer long-term physical, mental and emotional issues, according to a staggering body of medical and scientific studies. Even a year after leaving the intensive care unit, many people experience post-traumatic stress disorder, Alzheimer’s-like cognitive deficits, depression, lost jobs and problems with daily activities such as bathing and eating.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/
By Carolyn Y. Johnson and Ariana Eunjung Cha
April 3, 2020 at 12:49 p.m. CST

A relevant observation. Not everything is like on TV shows where everyone arriving in the ER are intubated and revived miraculously.

Statistics from Sweden regarding Covid-19 patients:
Age   Hospitalised/ICU/Deaths
0 to 9  36/0/0
10 to 19  139/0/0
20 to 29  452/16/3
30 to 39  582/21/0
40 to 49  838/64/1
50 to 59  1182/123/15
60 to 69  913/162/26
70 to 79  932/112/101
80 to 89  942/21/157
90+  424/1/70

Only 1 case of the 424 patients aged 90+ has been treated in an intensive care unit (outcome not revealed in the statistics). Judging from the data, it seems like most 80+ patients aren't treated in ICU either.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4881 on: April 04, 2020, 08:56:38 PM »
It’s usually not worth it to put the most elderly patients through the pain and hardship of heavy ICU treatment. Palliative care is the reasonable approach in such circumstances.

I have recent firsthand experience because my grandmother passed away two months ago due to viral pneumonia caused by RS virus.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4882 on: April 04, 2020, 09:07:38 PM »
I tried to model the spread of the virus and needed to find out the effects of the quarantine on human contacts. It is a lot of guesswork but some indicators point to drastically reduced contacts. One of the best is the driving application Waze. They have a statistic for big cities (how many users use the app in the city). It is worth taking a look. This is Rome and Madrid, pretty amazing, drivers' numbers fell by 80-90%. These quarantines surely reduced R below 1:

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4883 on: April 04, 2020, 09:08:03 PM »
Dutch numbers

deaths 1651 +164

Quote
Gewoonlijk worden er in deze tijd tussen de 2.700 en 3.000 sterfgevallen per week gemeld. In de week van 19 tot en met 25 maart 2020 zijn er naar schatting tussen de 871 en 1181 personen meer overleden dan gebruikelijk.

The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.

6622 +336 hospitalisations, lowest number of the week

1360 in IC +36

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6042566/dodental-stijgt-met-164-nog-eens-336-coronapatienten-in-ziekenhuis.html

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6042566/dodental-stijgt-met-164-nog-eens-336-coronapatienten-in-ziekenhuis.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4884 on: April 04, 2020, 09:34:46 PM »
Quote
The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.
World meter shows 179 total deaths Sunday 22 march for  Netherlands.  :o

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4885 on: April 04, 2020, 09:37:09 PM »
So you believe that Nembro is typical of the whole world?  This is a small community of about 11,000 inhabitants, which recorded 35 deaths.  Why extrapolate this area, when there is so much more data recorded elsewhere?
I suggest you re-read the original quote:
This is what the mayor of Nembro writes:

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31 (...)"
To spell it out for you: Nembro should have had 35 deaths. Instead they've registered 158 deaths. But only attributed 31 to Covid-19.

That's why. Got it?

So I am off by 4.  That is not a big deal, nor was that my question.  Rather, why do you consider Nembro symbolic of the entire world?  Do you believe that the current global death tally should be multiplied by a factor of five?  That would take more than one small village to validate.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4886 on: April 04, 2020, 09:38:33 PM »
Quote
The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.
World meter shows 179 total deaths Sunday 22 march for  Netherlands.  :o

Worldmeter shows deaths with a corona diagnosis.

This shows all deaths: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Excess deaths was about 1000.

Same kind of difference as in Nembro.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 09:51:39 PM by pietkuip »

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4887 on: April 04, 2020, 09:45:15 PM »
Yes I get that
It suggests the true death rate from Covid 19 is far in excess of the official figures .
I gave the world meter number at the end of the week so we can gauge by how much deaths from Covid 19 are being under reported. 

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4888 on: April 04, 2020, 09:46:03 PM »
Yeah it is excess mortality. People are still figuring out how much are Covid related but i would assume the majority.

Basically this is common. Happens in every pandemic and every severe flu season.
So yes officially reported cases are always a lower bound.
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4889 on: April 04, 2020, 09:46:26 PM »
Over here they expect many deaths in the next weeks by other causes than corona. The hospital over here, normaly they do 3 operations a day on the appendix. Now it's only 3 a week. The same with heart problems. Looks like people are afraid to go to the hospital with complains that would normaly bring them to the hospital. And they seperated the corona part of the hospital completely from the rest. But many people don't know that i think.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4890 on: April 05, 2020, 11:11:30 AM »
Rather, why do you consider Nembro symbolic of the entire world?  Do you believe that the current global death tally should be multiplied by a factor of five?  That would take more than one small village to validate.

How is this not a no-brainer?

People who die from this virus most are in the same age bracket of people where people usually die (i.e. high age). Also, it has a higher death rate with people who are suffering from other illnesses. It is only logical that deaths from this virus can be, and will be misattributed.
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sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4891 on: April 05, 2020, 11:37:57 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported/ar-BB122Qsj

Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported
Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2020
Many are dying uncounted as nation’s stretched health-care system struggles to save the living and accurately gauge human cost

MILAN–—In the town of Coccaglio, an hour’s drive east of here, the local nursing home lost over a third of its residents in March. None of the 24 people who died there were tested for the new coronavirus. Nor were the 38 people who died in another nursing home in the nearby town of Lodi.

These aren’t isolated incidents. Italy’s official death toll from the virus stands at 13,155, the most of any country in the world. But that number tells only part of the story because many people who die from the virus don’t make it to the hospital and are never tested.

In the areas worst hit by the pandemic, Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows, indicating that the pandemic’s human toll may end up being much greater, and infections far more widespread, than official data indicate.

Italy’s hidden death toll shows what could lie in store for the worst-hit areas of the U.S., Europe and many other countries in the weeks ahead if the coronavirus is not tamed fast. The burden that the pandemic puts on health-care systems can cause so many deaths that it is hard to gauge the full human cost.

As stretched and sometimes overwhelmed hospitals fight to save their patients, many other people die unseen and uncounted, including elderly people in out-of-the-way locations. In addition, the health-care crisis can lead to a surge of deaths from other causes that would normally be treatable.

“There are many more dead than are officially declared. But this is not a j’accuse. People died and they were never tested because time and resources are limited,” Eugenio Fossati, deputy mayor of Coccaglio, says of deaths caused by the virus.

Properly tallying the number of deaths from the pathogen can help public-health officials map out a response to the pandemic, such as making sure hospitals are adequately equipped for the emergency. It can also influence how quickly and strictly governments should impose social-distancing measures, and for how long.

But collecting accurate data is challenging for Italy and many other countries, due to the speed of the pandemic and the fact that most countries’ public-health institutions are geared towards normal times. ...

The provincial cities of Bergamo and Brescia are the two worst hotspots, and have become symbols of Italy’s suffering.

In and around those two towns, the real number of deaths is probably at least double the official count of 2,060 in March for Bergamo and 1,278 for Brescia since the outbreak began in late February, according to interviews with local officials, doctors and funeral-service providers and comparisons with the numbers of deaths from past years.

People are also dying of other ailments because hospitals are too overloaded with coronavirus cases to give them the treatment they need, doctors and local officials say

Some 85 people died in the whole of last year in Coccaglio, a town near Brescia of 8,700 residents. In March of this year alone, the town’s main church bell has sounded the death knell 56 times. Only 12 of the deaths were officially attributed to the coronavirus.

“We know the real number is higher, and we mourn them, knowing full well why they died,” says Mr. Fossati, the deputy mayor. “It’s a hard truth to accept.” ...

The uncertainty about the death toll and the number of infected people makes it difficult to establish the true fatality rate of Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus. Estimates by epidemiologists of the fatality rate still range widely, but it is generally thought to be between 1% and 3% of those infected.

Italy’s government-run statistical agency on Wednesday reported a nationwide jump in deaths for the first three weeks of March from a year earlier—particularly in northern Italy, where it found the number of deaths more than doubled in over half the hundreds of towns and cities it surveyed.

“If you base any policy making on these numbers, you should be very careful,” says Lucas Böttcher, a researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has modelled fatality rates for Covid-19. “They can highly fluctuate during an outbreak.”

Nowhere in Italy has been harder hit than Bergamo, a city of about 120,000 people. In March 2019, 125 people died in the city. This March, 553 people died. Of these, 201 deaths were officially attributed to the virus. This leaves 352 further deaths for the period, far higher than normal.

In the wider Bergamo province, which comprises the city and more than 240 small towns and has a total population of 1.1 million, 2,060 people died in March from the virus. But some 4,500 more people died in the province in March than a year earlier, according to a new joint study by the local Eco di Bergamo newspaper and research firm InTwig that took data from 91 towns in the province. ...

Similar situations have played out across the Lombardy region, which accounts for 58% of Italy’s official coronavirus deaths.

In towns around Lombardy, local officials and doctors say the deaths recorded in March are many times the average monthly number. Often, the monthly toll matches deaths that towns normally record over half a year.

The health-care system in the region is so overstretched that doctors can’t treat all the sick. Those who die outside the hospital usually aren’t tested for the coronavirus.

“They are not receiving post-mortem tests,” Eleonora Colombi, a family doctor based near Brescia, says of people who die outside hospitals, such as in nursing homes. “Many of those who die and aren’t tested are old, but you normally don’t have so many people all dying at the same time. It’s corona.”

At Dr. Colombi’s office, three patients who tested positive for the coronavirus have died in recent weeks. But an additional 20 people who died with symptoms associated with the virus weren’t tested. ...

In Castellone, 31 people died between March 1 and March 26, compared with five in that period last year. About eight of the 31 deaths were officially attributed to the coronavirus, but about 10 more were probably caused by the virus, and a similar number by potentially treatable ailments, says Mr. Fiore. ...

It will take time for the number of daily deaths to come down, since many of those who are dying became infected weeks ago. For now, the sheer number of people dying is still overwhelming Italian towns. Funeral-service agencies that work with hundreds of funeral homes in Brescia and Bergamo say the number of dead they buried or cremated in March was more than twice the number in March last year. The stated cause of death is often just pneumonia, without reference to the coronavirus, they say.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4892 on: April 05, 2020, 11:59:52 AM »
Herd immunity in Italian small town reached

70% of tested in this small town (Castiglioni d'Adda), ie 40 out of 60 had antibodies. The town has 4600 population and lost 62 people (cca 1.5%). That is the price of herd immunity.

You can use google translate if need be:

https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-e-morto-il-padre-del-paziente-1-1.38621278

https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4893 on: April 05, 2020, 12:50:45 PM »
Herd immunity in Italian small town reached

70% of tested in this small town (Castiglioni d'Adda), ie 40 out of 60 had antibodies. The town has 4600 population and lost 62 people (cca 1.5%). That is the price of herd immunity.

You can use google translate if need be:

https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-e-morto-il-padre-del-paziente-1-1.38621278

https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481

Is that official deaths or year to date anomaly deaths? From Vox-Mundi's post above and many other posts here, the latest is a much more accurate number of covid deaths (plus Covid crisis-caused collateral deaths)

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4894 on: April 05, 2020, 01:24:20 PM »
Quote
So I am off by 4.  That is not a big deal, nor was that my question.  Rather, why do you consider Nembro symbolic of the entire world?  Do you believe that the current global death tally should be multiplied by a factor of five?  That would take more than one small village to validate.

Most of the information from the original article in Corriere della sera, which I posted but from which I only quoted the first paragraph, did not make it into this discussion. (1) The number of recorded deaths was neither 31 nor 35, but 158. 35 is the average number of deaths for that town and time - a difference of 123 -, and 31 is the number that was officially attributed to Covid-19 deaths. (2) The article cited several other towns with similar or higher excess mortality. (3) It makes the suggestion to use the same methodology, i.e. check the recorded number of deaths of other municipalities against the averages for these municipalities.

Full article:

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

Quote
Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic.
The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive. In this case, the number of abnormal deaths compared to the average that Nembro recorded in the period of time in consideration is equal to 4 times those officially attributed to Covid-19. If a comparison is made between the deaths that have occurred and the same period in previous years, the anomaly is even more evident: there is a peak of «other» deaths in correspondence with that of the official deaths from Covid-19.

In the hypothesis - not at all remote - that all citizens of Nembro have caught the virus (with many asymptomatic, therefore), 158 deaths would equate to a lethality rate of 1%. That is precisely the expected and measured lethality rate on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and - made proportionally by demographic structure - in South Korea. We have made exactly the same calculation for the municipalities of Cernusco sul Naviglio (Mi) and Pesaro using exactly the same methodology. In Cernusco the number of anomalous deaths is equal to 6.1 times those officially attributed to Covid-19, also in Pesaro 6.1 times. But even more staggering are the Bergamo figures, where the ratio reaches 10.4.

It is extremely reasonable to think that these excess deaths are largely elderly or frail people who died at home or in residential facilities, without being hospitalized and without being swabbed to verify that they have actually become infected with Covid-19. Given the decline seen in the last few days after the peak, flock immunity has likely been attained in Nembro. To a certain degree, Nembro represents what would happen in Italy if everyone were infected by CoronaVirus, Covid-19: 600,000 people would die. The numbers of Nembro also suggest that we must take those official deaths and multiply them by at least 4 to have the real impact of Covid-19 in Italy, at this moment.

Our suggestion, therefore, is to take the data of the individual municipalities where there have been at least 10 official deaths due to Covid-19 and check if it corresponds to real deaths. Our fear is that not only the number of infected people have been largely underestimated due to the low number of swabs and tests carried out, and therefore the number of asymptomatics from the statistics have «disappeared», but that the case is also – through the data of the Municipalities - that of the dead. We are in the midst of an epoch-making event and to fight it we need credible data on the reality of the situation, disclosed transparently among all the experts and people who have to manage the crisis responsibly. Based on these data we can understand and decide what is right to do when it is required.

Claudio Cancelli is the Mayor of Nembro
Luca Foresti is the CEO of Centro Medico Santagostino

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4895 on: April 05, 2020, 01:48:40 PM »
The number of recovered in Spain (green) causes the progression of hospitalized (blue) flattening even in linear scale.
This probably has little effect on ICUs, which continues growing between 5000 and 10000 patients.

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4896 on: April 05, 2020, 02:00:15 PM »
Possibly some good news re. associated deaths.


Early last week a step daughter in Nevada was operated on in Nevada for cancer - successfully. I just learned that a friend here in Ontario is scheduled for cancer surgery next Tuesday.
Apparently needed medical treatments are still being carried out, at least this in this phase of the pandemic. ;)


Stay Isolated & Stay Healthy
Terry

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4897 on: April 05, 2020, 02:10:48 PM »

Only 1 case of the 424 patients aged 90+ has been treated in an intensive care unit (outcome not revealed in the statistics). Judging from the data, it seems like most 80+ patients aren't treated in ICU either.
Not sure what it means, but sounds very creepy... like triage already in place to leave spots, in anticipation to what will be coming.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4898 on: April 05, 2020, 02:16:18 PM »
Herd immunity in Italian small town reached

70% of tested in this small town (Castiglioni d'Adda), ie 40 out of 60 had antibodies. The town has 4600 population and lost 62 people (cca 1.5%). That is the price of herd immunity.

You can use google translate if need be:

https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-e-morto-il-padre-del-paziente-1-1.38621278

https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481

Is that official deaths or year to date anomaly deaths? From Vox-Mundi's post above and many other posts here, the latest is a much more accurate number of covid deaths (plus Covid crisis-caused collateral deaths)

62 is the total number of deaths for cca 2 months, that is an anomaly of cca 52 deaths, ie. slightly above 1% of total population. That seems to be enough to create herd immunity as based on these blood tests 2/3 of them have antibodies

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4899 on: April 05, 2020, 02:23:28 PM »
Xenophobia is rearing its ugly head regarding CV-19. My friend's fears of wearing a mask while being a visible minority of East Asian extraction were apparently not based on paranoia. Wikipedia even has a page on violent episodes around the world.


Asians are being discouraged from taking steps that might save their own health because of fears that they'll be attacked.


I'm afraid that while we're self isolating all we can do to show our support of the Asian community is to let our feelings be known online.
Terry