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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 386580 times)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5450 on: April 14, 2020, 09:15:00 AM »
Sometimes those things we can least influence scare us the most.

Exactly.

It is a comforting thought to blame humans for creating this. The real scary part is that infections like this can emerge anywhere at any time. 

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5451 on: April 14, 2020, 09:43:43 AM »
No Opt-Out? Android Phones Will Get the COVID-19 Tracking Updates via Google Play
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/21216484/google-apple-coronavirus-contract-tracing-bluetooth-location-tracking-data-app

Google has confirmed that it will use the Google Play Services infrastructure to update Android phones with the upcoming COVID-19 contact tracing system it is building in collaboration with Apple. It should ensure that more Android phones will actually get the updates, and also ensure that they become available on phones running Android 6.0 Marshmallow or above.

Google says that its update system will apply to both phases of the Bluetooth contact tracing framework — the initial API rollout, which is due next month, and the next stage, which will see the APIs built into the OS. The companies will say only that the second stage will arrive “in coming months.”

There is one huge set of Android devices that don’t benefit from Google Play services: all of the Android phones in China, as well as any Huawei phones sold around the world after the imposition of restrictions by the US.

https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/4/13/21220033/android-covid-19-tracking-updates-google-play-contact-tracing

Growth in Surveillance May Be Hard to Scale Back After Pandemic, Experts Say

The coronavirus pandemic has led to an unprecedented global surge in digital surveillance, researchers and privacy advocates around the world have said, with billions of people facing enhanced monitoring that may prove difficult to roll back.

Governments in at least 25 countries are employing vast programmes for mobile data tracking, apps to record personal contact with others, CCTV networks equipped with facial recognition, permission schemes to go outside and drones to enforce social isolation regimes.

The methods have been adopted by authoritarian states and democracies alike and have opened lucrative new markets for companies that extract, sell, and analyse private data. One of the world’s foremost experts on mobile phone surveillance said the pandemic had created a “9/11 on steroids” that could lead to grave abuses of power.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/growth-in-surveillance-may-be-hard-to-scale-back-after-coronavirus-pandemic-experts-say
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5452 on: April 14, 2020, 10:23:00 AM »
Sometimes those things we can least influence scare us the most.

Exactly.

It is a comforting thought to blame humans for creating this. The real scary part is that infections like this can emerge anywhere at any time.

Freakier is that they have been recurring like clockwork once a century in world spanning outbreaks.

I doubt that speaks about the viruses. I suspect it says something about humanity.

The Indian variant may be and likely is -less- virulent, based on where the mutation affected.

However it points out a grave danger. The longer this thing is extant in the world, the more copies exist in more bodies. Each reproduction is a chance for a new variation. Each variation is a chance for an even scarier disease. And with more people infected comes more co-infections and the opportunity for cross over, and the creation of some new monster.

With variation also comes the potential that the variants require distinct vaccines. And the potential for difficulties, such as occurs with the five variants of Dengue and its vaccine.

On a different note.

It appears that self isolation as done in the US is resulting in something like a -1.5% “growth” rate. I.e. a 0.985 x/day change day to day in the number of new cases. This is excellent news. However, it is - slow. At that rate, and without massive testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected, it means that provided this holds across much of the US (unknown) that the new case rate about May 1 will be something like 75% of the new case rate today.

And what that means is that if self isolation / quarantine is lifted on May 1 as threatened by Donald the Dumb, and people actually return to their normal lives that the case rate will begin rising at between 1.18 x/day in mostly rural areas and ~1.355 x/day in urban metro areas.

It will take 10-11 days to see that begin to show impacts on numbers.  It will take about a week of increase to persuade decision makers that they have erred. And in that time the new case rate will have grown to between 35 and 235 times the rate the day the decision was implemented. If that is 75% of the case rate now, then the case rate will have bloomed to between 25 and 175 times the new case rate today.

And in many areas, with the peak in rates being about now, now is when many areas hospitals are at or near saturation. At 25 to 175 times today’s rates, pretty much everywhere will be in saturation. But those rates will continue to rise for another 10-11 days to 130 to 5,000 times today’s rates, before the restored quarantine begins to show effects. Should that happen a whole lot of folks will die who would not have died at lesser rates. That would take the nominal 4.5% CFR for hospitalized cases much much higher.

All of this is of course guesswork, with all sorts of questionable assumptions. People are likely to be gun shy to go back to their normal lives. Many, if not most, Governors are likely to show Herr Dumkopf their middle fingers. So the reality is likely to be much less severe than these numbers might suggest.

Then again, the stacked Federal Courts courtesy of Minnie me McConnell might well trash the Constitution and the tenth amendment and decide that the Commerce Clause supersedes everything.

Still, the impact will be bad. We can only hope that he isn’t as much of an imbecile as he appears, and that he doesn’t try to “restart” the economy on May 1, or anytime in the two months after that, without dramatically changed policies that drive the infection rates to near zero before trying to gently and tentatively restart the economy.

That is of course a vain and ridiculous hope. Our dear loser of a leader has demonstrated at every turn that he is a thin-skinned, self aggrandizing, malignant narcissist, sociopathic liar, conman, bully, idiot, fool, moron, imbecile, racist, zealot, misogynist, and utterly failed business man. Everything he touches turns into a heaping fetid pile of stinking shit the likes of which no one has seen before. There is no reason to hope or believe any decision he is involved in regarding this pandemic will be any different.

And whatever happens he will of course claim to have done the most perfectest and smartetest thing any President has ever even dreamed of doing - never mind the reality. And his troglodyte troll followers will genuflect obscenely and obsequiesly to French kiss his ass as he does it, while simultaneously blaming everything on the commies and their fantasy “deep State”. All the while, our neighbors will be dying for the economy.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 10:38:41 AM by Sam »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5453 on: April 14, 2020, 10:31:39 AM »
AstraZeneca to asses potential of blood cancer drug
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/million-confirmed-coronavirus-live-updates-200413235036857.html

AstraZeneca Plc said that it would start a clinical trial to assess the potential of Calquence in the treatment of the exaggerated immune response associated with COVID-19 infection in severely ill patients.

Calquence is a BTK inhibitor and currently used to treat certain types of blood cancers.

The drug has already been approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in the United States and a number of other countries.

------------------------------

China approves early-stage human trials for two vaccines
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/million-confirmed-coronavirus-live-updates-200413235036857.html

China has approved early-stage human tests for two experimental vaccines to combat the new coronavirus, state media outlet Xinhua reported on Tuesday.

The vaccines are being developed by a Beijing-based unit of Nasdaq-listed Sinovac Biotech, and by the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products, an affiliate of state-owned China National Pharmaceutical Group.

In March, China gave the green light for another clinical trial for a coronavirus vaccine candidate developed by China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences and Hong Kong-listed biotech firm CanSino Bio.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5454 on: April 14, 2020, 10:57:34 AM »
Another bit of good news.

Early reports are that Taiwan may again have returned to zero or near zero new cases, even as mainland China is fighting an influx of cases from outside the country.

South Korea also appears to be nearing zero as well. It looked iffy there for a bit. But they seem to have pulled it off. 

That makes four countries with decidedly excellent results. New Zealand is the fourth that I am aware of. There also appear to be a few more. I am less certain of them.

What I find most promising is that each of these managed it using different approaches.

And though COVID-19 is clearly transmissible via droplets and surfaces, these appear to be mostly manageable.

The one part of their solutions that all of these four share is testing, tracing and isolation.

On the question of the poll, how ever many people end up being infected and however many end up dying in this first wave, this is only the first wave. Through the rest of this years there will likely be at least one and possibly several more waves. Through the 2020s there will be more yet.

A vaccine might be key. Several vaccines may be needed. And these need to be shared globally. No one is safe until everyone is safe. That especially means out of the way places, and poor regions, migrants and displaced peoples, and all of the forgotten everywhere in the world.

Africa and India seem likely to be especially hard hit. Parts of South America may be equally impacted.

And lest we forget, SARS1 and MERS are still around. Vaccines are urgently needed for them as well.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 11:04:23 AM by Sam »

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5455 on: April 14, 2020, 11:27:21 AM »
Chloroquine Study Called Off After Irregular Heartbeats Detected in Patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v1.full.pdf

Researchers called off a small Brazilian study on the anti-malaria drug chloroquine’s ability to combat coronavirus after some participants experienced potentially fatal heart complications.

The study, which was funded by the Brazilian state of Amazonas, administered the drug to 81 hospitalized patients in Manaus to determine its effectiveness battling coronavirus, according to a report on pre-publication server medRix.

But researchers said they were forced to halt the study early after “potential safety hazards” became apparent.

“Preliminary findings suggest that the higher [chloroquine] dosage (10-day regimen) should not be recommended for COVID-19 treatment because of its potential safety hazards,” researchers wrote. “Such results forced us to prematurely halt patient recruitment to this arm.”

Roughly half of the patients in the study took a 50-milligram low dose of chloroquine twice daily for five days, the report said. The other participants were given a single, 600-milligram dose daily for 10 days.

But within three days, some of the patients taking the higher dose experienced arrhythmia, or irregular heartbeats, the report said. By the sixth day, 11 patients had died, though it was unclear if that was from coronavirus or complications related to the chloroquine.

The scientists said that “the trend towards higher fatality associated with the higher dose by day 6 of follow-up resulted in a premature halting” of administering higher doses to patients.

“To me, this study conveys one useful piece of information, which is that chloroquine causes a dose-dependent increase in an abnormality in the ECG (electrocardiography) that could predispose people to sudden cardiac death,” Dr. David Juurlink, the head of the division of clinical pharmacology at the University of Toronto, Canada, told the New York Times.

Usual Adult Dose for Malaria Prophylaxis: Loading dose of 1 g chloroquine phosphate (600 mg base) taken orally in 2 divided doses, 6 hours apart. 500 mg chloroquine phosphate (300 mg base) orally on the same day each week

This study was not rationally set up to be safe or effective.  Toxicity of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine in overdosage is well-known.  Safe maintenance dosing is well-understood in treating rheumatic diseases.  There are obvious, though unusual challenges when trying to use these agents for an acute viral infection.  See:

Pharmacokinetics of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine during treatment of rheumatic diseases
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0961203396005001041

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and chloroquine (CQ) are well absorbed (0.7-0.8 bioavailability) when given orally. ... Both HCQ and CQ have prolonged half-lives, between 40 and 50 days... There is great variability of blood concentrations with an eleven-fold range of drug concentrations found after similar doses in RA patients....
There is a suggestion of ... concentration toxicity relationships with ... increased EKG abnormalities as CQ concentrations become higher...
___________________________

When using an antiviral agent for an acute infection, it is *always* true that giving the agent early in the course of infection is essential for achieving good results.  Waiting until a case is severe enough to require hospitalization condemns even the best agent to failure.

The above pharmacokinetic information means that dosing these agents for an acute infection is very difficult to do safely, though with a straightforward solution to the difficulty (which the study did not implement). 

That is, the extraordinarily long elimination half-life of these agents means that a stable daily dose would require *months* before rising to a steady-state blood level.  That's never going to work for an acute problem.  For acute use of long half-life agents, a loading dose (or doses) is needed.  That dosing consideration was incorporated in this study.

But dosing any agent with both extreme individuality in blood levels (11-fold variation is enormous) and serious toxicity in overdosage (e.g., sudden cardiac death) absolutely requires checking blood levels after a loading dose(s) and frequently thereafter.  This is the way, e.g., aminoglycoside antibiotics are dosed in severe infections.

It's irresponsible to wait until a disease progresses to a nearly irreparable state before introducing a treatment.  It's reckless to do so when the treatment has significant risks.  This holds for clinical trial design and empiric use, both.

It borders on criminal to give high doses that can be predicted to risk death without checking blood levels before subsequent doses. 

This is not rocket science.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5456 on: April 14, 2020, 12:08:49 PM »
Another bit of good news....

The one part of their solutions that all of these four share is testing, tracing and isolation...

I agree 100%. And I just can't understand why other countries do not copy them as fast as possible. Why doesn't every country (at least those able) perform mass testing and tracing???
In my country, the person responsible for the pandemic said "no testing is able to stop the virus", so they do test only for the very sick. Seriously. Unbelievable. It's like saying "no radar can stop enemy airplanes".

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5457 on: April 14, 2020, 12:58:55 PM »
Friend is worrying about the forest fire near Tjernobyl.

Well, there was also a bit of a panic in Sweden in the spring of 1986. After that, a few thousand children in the Ukraine got thyroid cancer. Usually treatable.

Now we will be run over by the coronavirus, Tens of thousands will get pneumonia, for which there is no real treatment, which is often fatal.

And the country is not panicking.

Maybe this is due to the mass media being very reassuring etc.

The world is upside down. The Zone may be the safest place on Earth.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5458 on: April 14, 2020, 01:13:12 PM »
El Cid, you and I have been around a few times on this, but I think you underestimate the challenge of putting in place a large, competent testing, tracing and isolation program.  Obviously, it CAN be done, as the examples of the countries that have done it demonstrate. 

But I promise you, here in the US it is proving to be incredibly challenging, given the criminally incompetent federal government and a deeply divided populace that has, amazingly, made CV response a political issue.  There is also a mad money grab in progress here to cash in on every aspect of the T,T & I program, rather than a coordinated strategy.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5459 on: April 14, 2020, 01:24:20 PM »
Sam, how do you see the large spatial heterogeneity in social distancing compliance and the concomitant impact on the reproductive number playing out here in the US? I don't think projections based on the nationwide reduction mean much as the geographic picture is so varied.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5460 on: April 14, 2020, 01:38:38 PM »
I attach data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries for Italy

I include the projections to 19th April, that have done OK so far when limited to just a week or so.

Why Italy ? as it is supposed to be further along the epidemic path than much of Europe & certainly the UK and the USA.

Yes, there are signs the case load and increase in deaths is levelling off.
The mortality rates seem to be levelling off.

But no real signs of reductions in the case load. This is not a short-term spring & summer 2020 event?
__________________________________________________
ps: A good many posts above I saw the statement that the infection rate is "the number of cases divided by the population".

One word added in two places would make that true - "identified" infection rate & "identified" cases. As it stands without those words, it is misleading rubbish.

The scale of under-recorded infections and deaths in the UK is starting to emerge.
The scale of testing in the UK is totally inadequate. All countries have this problem to one degree or other. That means the timing of when lockdowns can be lifted will be an educated** guess on incomplete data. (**An uneducated guess in the USA if Trump decides).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5461 on: April 14, 2020, 01:54:49 PM »
James gets it wrong. https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1248969330756288512?s=20
917 isn't the right number, at least not in the sense it needs to be.

James realises there's something wrong with his model, but hasn't yet twigged there's a consistent weekend effect rather than random noise in the reporting delays.
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/04/reporting-delays-etc.html

Oxford mathematicians ...

It was Penrose's tiles rather than the Game of Life that fascinated me, and although Penrose invented them, much of their wider popularity was down to Conway.

Comedian rather than mathematician, but another of the same generation taken by COVID, Tim Brooke-Taylor. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52268441

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5462 on: April 14, 2020, 02:31:05 PM »
El Cid, you and I have been around a few times on this, but I think you underestimate the challenge of putting in place a large, competent testing, tracing and isolation program.

You are right about this dnem. It is difficult. It is costly. It is a logistical nightmare. Yes. But still much cheaper than a huge recession. And also: how many people have died due to the unwillingness and incompetence of our politicians?

Not creating a serious testing/tracing policy results in thousands of unneeded deaths. I think it is a crime against humanity

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5463 on: April 14, 2020, 02:40:29 PM »
A global contact tracing program could save the economy and many lives for a relatively low price. If that price is amortized over eradicating influenza, it becomes an investment.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 03:42:19 PM by Archimid »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5464 on: April 14, 2020, 02:45:21 PM »
Whenever we start thoroughgoing testing, tracing and isolating, it will be a nightmare.

But with the virus currently so widespread throughout the population (according to various estimates that the real infection rate is 10 to 100 times the official number of confirmed cases), it seems pretty much impossible to even think about it at this point. For one thing, we don't seem to have the testing capacity to even check on medical workers and those showing clear symptoms.

And the first use I would put any 'extra tests' to  would be to do some random samples to see how many people in the population really are contagious at this moment. (If anyone has info on any such studies, I would love to know about them).

But from what I've seen, you don't try to start massive testing and tracing at the peak of an outbreak, especially when the peak is quite high. There will just be too many overlapping sources, and you just end up sequestering everyone, which is pretty much what we're trying to do anyway.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5465 on: April 14, 2020, 03:05:26 PM »
In the UK the scale of under-reporting deaths starts to emerge, which in turn implies a huge underestimate of the infection rate in the general population.

The ONS data says deaths from all causes in the week to 3 April were 6,000 more than the 5 year average for that week. Coronavirus deaths recorded (all from hospitals) were about 3,000 in that week.

I repeat yet gain, every country must be going through, or has gone through, this under-reporting. The virus spreads so fast that the best of health care systems can only play catch-up.

Coronavirus pushes England and Wales death rate to record high
Office for National Statistics said death rate for week to 3 April is 6,000 more than five-year average

Quote
Coronavirus has pushed the death toll in England and Wales to its highest level since official weekly statistics began 15 years ago, with fatalities running at almost 40% above the average.

The Office for National Statistics said that in the week to 3 April, 16,387 people died in England and Wales, an increase of 5,246 deaths compared with the previous week and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

“The deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005,” said Nick Stripe, head of health analysis and life events at the ONS.

The figures also showed the increasing impact of Covid-19 on mortality in England and Wales, with 22% of all deaths relating to the disease in the week ending 3 April compared with 5% in the week ending 27 March.

In London, nearly half of deaths registered involved Covid-19 and the West Midlands also recorded one of the highest proportions of Covid-19 deaths, accounting for 22.1% of all deaths in the region.

However, the figures continued to show relatively low levels of deaths in care homes compared to reports from operators.

HC One, which operates around 350 homes, said that as of 8pm on Monday there had been 311 deaths from confirmed or suspected Covid-19. It said there had been outbreaks in two-thirds of its homes. MHA, a charitable operator, said there had now been 210 deaths across 131 homes and there were outbreaks in around half of its homes.





"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5466 on: April 14, 2020, 03:30:54 PM »
Another bit of good news....

The one part of their solutions that all of these four share is testing, tracing and isolation...

I agree 100%. And I just can't understand why other countries do not copy them as fast as possible. Why doesn't every country (at least those able) perform mass testing and tracing???
In my country, the person responsible for the pandemic said "no testing is able to stop the virus", so they do test only for the very sick. Seriously. Unbelievable. It's like saying "no radar can stop enemy airplanes".

Also, these countries are much easier to isolate than most.  Taiwan and New Zealand are islands, and South Korea has one inaccessible border.  Other islands, such as Iceland and the Faeroes, which has not witnessed a new case since April 7, have been quite successful in containing this outbreak. 

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5467 on: April 14, 2020, 04:16:22 PM »
Another bit of good news....

The one part of their solutions that all of these four share is testing, tracing and isolation...

I agree 100%. And I just can't understand why other countries do not copy them as fast as possible. Why doesn't every country (at least those able) perform mass testing and tracing???
In my country, the person responsible for the pandemic said "no testing is able to stop the virus", so they do test only for the very sick. Seriously. Unbelievable. It's like saying "no radar can stop enemy airplanes".

Also, these countries are much easier to isolate than most.  Taiwan and New Zealand are islands, and South Korea has one inaccessible border.  Other islands, such as Iceland and the Faeroes, which has not witnessed a new case since April 7, have been quite successful in containing this outbreak.
Another good story, at least so far, comes from Suriname (South America). They closed their border around mid-March, when they had only a few cases. The current status is: 10 confirmed cases, of which 1 deceased and 6 recoverd (https://covid-19.sr/).

However, they have really closed their borders (although the SE-border with French Guiana seems a bit porous). They have allowed only a few evacuation flights from abroad until the end of March, additional flights this month were cancelled, likely until at least early May.
So Suriname citizens abroad got stuck.
Knowing the Surinamese healthcare situation a bit (around 40 IC units available for a population of around 600,000), it seems the government didn't choose the worst option. Yet, it is rather difficult, as e.g. many food items used to be imported.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5468 on: April 14, 2020, 04:18:22 PM »

I agree 100%. And I just can't understand why other countries do not copy them as fast as possible. Why doesn't every country (at least those able) perform mass testing and tracing???
In my country, the person responsible for the pandemic said "no testing is able to stop the virus", so they do test only for the very sick. Seriously. Unbelievable. It's like saying "no radar can stop enemy airplanes".
It was the same here in Finland. When we moved from the tracing phase to epidemic phase the health officials actually reduced testing for a short while before the government told them to increase it.

I think it's different, medical, approach to the problem. In their mind they are treating the patients, and when the epidemic is widespread you can diagnose the disease by the symptoms, so there is no need to test everyone. If a patient has the symptoms s/he most likely has the virus. Actually one of our health officials said that they don't understand the WHO stand of widespread testing because a doctor doesn't test the patient unless the test result has an effect on the treatment.

The other reason is more cynical one. In an epidemic they don't have the resources to dedicate to test people just to get to data. It's mainly the health care professionals conducting tests but also PPEs, lab capacity, reagents etc other necessary gear.

I think it shows how completely unprepared we were. Fortunately up here we are bit later on the epidemic so had the chance to learn from other people's mistakes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5469 on: April 14, 2020, 04:24:05 PM »
“While the disease accelerates very fast, it decelerates much more slowly.”

Coronavirus: How to adapt to a new normal as lockdowns are lifted
• Some European countries have laid out plans to emerge from lockdown as soon as this month after enduring several weeks of stringent social and economic restrictions.

•“Our global connectedness means the risk of re-introduction and resurgence of the disease will continue,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the WHO, said at a media briefing on Monday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/coronavirus-how-to-adapt-to-a-new-normal-as-lockdowns-are-lifted.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5470 on: April 14, 2020, 04:38:10 PM »
Quite an interesting article on medical treatment strategies for COVID-19 learned on the front lines in NYC:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html

What Doctors on the Front Lines Wish They’d Known a Month Ago

The biggest change: Instead of quickly sedating people who had shockingly low levels of oxygen and then putting them on mechanical ventilators, many doctors are now keeping patients conscious, having them roll over in bed, recline in chairs and continue to breathe on their own — with additional oxygen — for as long as possible.


Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5471 on: April 14, 2020, 05:18:51 PM »
Todays gov.uk figures
Cumulative: 302,599 people tested   93,873 positive   12,107 deaths in hospital
Daily: 11,879 tested   5,252 positive   778 deaths

No results from the antibody surveillance yet.
The reports are still likely to be significantly low due to the reporters being on holiday. They return today, and I expect a big spike in deaths reported in the next two days, as four days worth of Easter holiday backlog gets dealt with.

Data from certificated deaths for the week to 3rd April is now available https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020
Death rate among males was about double the rate among females.
16387 total deaths registered in the week ending 3rd April is the highest since weekly death data started to be compiled in 2005. There will be a new record next week too, hospital deaths were still going up at the beginning of April.
6000 excess deaths, 3475 COVID deaths, maybe as many as 800 excess pneumonia/flu deaths. The excess deaths continue to run at about double the hospital deaths, but there are other factors than COVID being reported as pneumonia. There's been a big drop in emergency presentation for strokes and heart attacks, but I haven't seen data indicating how much excess death might have resulted from it yet.




Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5472 on: April 14, 2020, 05:33:11 PM »
The small spike in new infections in Finland is probably result of the Friday over a week ago, beautiful spring day and the last day bars/clubs/restaurants were open. Expecting the spike to continue couple of next days.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5473 on: April 14, 2020, 05:51:51 PM »
Dutch numbers

122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.

Quote
Tot nu toe was het aantal meldingen steeds het grootst op dinsdag. Dat komt volgens het RIVM doordat veel sterfgevallen en ziekenhuisopnames van vrijdag, zaterdag en zondag op maandag in de administratie werden verwerkt.

Until now the peak is always biggest on tuesday becasue deaths and new hospitalisations from friday, saturday and sunday are added on monday.

210 vs 292 for new hospitalisations with the same caveat.

27419 +868 positives


28% of these are HCW rest mostly patients in hospitals and care homes. So 7,7k infected health care workers. Much respect to them.

81% is female and half is under 45%
In the general patient population it is 50-50.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6044657/rivm-meldt-minder-doden-122-en-ziekenhuisopnames-210-dan-week-eerder.html

The newssite no long does the same daily updates so that is why they where missing sometimes.
I will post the more interesting tidbits.

The dutch GPs are putting together a list of all the deaths they counted as Covid in home situations and in long term care facilities. They have the numbers going way back so this should be interesting to see. Also should not take that long to come out.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5474 on: April 14, 2020, 06:01:58 PM »
Florida Governor Expands Pandemic Essential Services to Include Professional Wrestling
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/florida-governor-desantis-wwe-professional-wrestling-essential-conoravirus-service.amp

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, since the outset, has taken a lackadaisical approach to the coronavirus. The state, famously, let spring breakers continue to rage on its beaches even as the rest of the country hunkered down at home. DeSantis showed little interest in intervening in any way, abdicating his responsibility as governor to a president who was also intent on dodging accountability and sending it right back down to the state level.

Weeks later, when DeSantis did finally impose a shelter-in-place order on April 3, eliminating large gatherings and reducing activity to the largely standard essential services, the Republican governor who has only been on the job for several months chose to double back and exempt religious services from the ban. The incomprehensible decision would allow hundreds, if not thousands, of worshippers to gather, wedged shoulder to shoulder in pews, as the pandemic grew.

With the state stay-at-home order in effect until the end of the month, DeSantis has made the latest in his series of questionable decisions, announcing that WWE—yes, the professional wrestling entertainment behemoth—would now count as an essential service, exempting it from shutdown requirements. The order signed last week applies, technically, to “employees at a professional sports and media production with a national audience—including any athletes, entertainers, production team, executive team, media team and any others necessary to facilitate including services supporting such production—only if the location is closed to the general public.” The state lockdown had been in place less than a week at that point.

DeSantis says WWE will be permitted to operate “because they are critical to Florida’s economy.”  ... The governor, often referred to as a “mini-Trump,” is granting this lucrative exemption to the WWE, which is owned by Trump booster Vince McMahon, whose wife, Linda McMahon, served in the Trump Cabinet and runs a Trump 2020 super PAC.*

--------------------------

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5475 on: April 14, 2020, 06:16:32 PM »
Navy Battles Growing Coronavirus Outbreak on Hospital Ship Mercy as 7 Test Positive
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-13/navy-battling-growing-coronavirus-outbreak-on-hospital-ship-mercy-as-7-test-positive

Naval health officials are fighting an outbreak of the novel coronavirus among the crew of the hospital ship Mercy, where four more sailors tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend, bringing the total cases among the crew to seven, a Navy official said Monday.

“The affected sailors, as well as those with whom they had close contact, have left the ship and are either isolated or quarantined off the ship, according to Cmdr. John Fage, a 3rd Fleet spokesman.”

---------------------------

From Afghanistan, “the Air Force evacuated three U.S. government contractors who had tested positive for COVID-19,” Air Force Times reported Monday. “Air Mobility Command aircrew and medical personnel headed into Afghanistan to retrieve the U.S. citizens, and brought them back to Ramstein Air Force base on April 10, the Air Force said. Upon arrival at Ramstein, the contractors were shuttled to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center for additional treatment.”

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2020/04/13/air-force-c-17-evacuates-three-americans-with-coronavirus-out-of-afghanistan/

--------------------------

Researchers at the Army lab in Fort Detrick, Md., are trying to develop “a more sensitive test that could detect the coronavirus in people who have no symptoms,” the lab’s chief of viral immunology explained to McClatchy on Monday.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/coronavirus/article241978946.html

-------------------------

Pentagon Orders 60 Machines that Disinfect Desperately Needed N95 Masks
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/04/pentagon-places-415m-order-machines-disinfect-n95-mask/164588/

The Pentagon has placed a $415 million order for 60 machines that can disinfect N95 masks, which will allow doctors, nurses, and others treating coronavirus patients to reuse the scarce gear up to 20 times. Each Battelle-made machine can clean up to 80,000 masks per day.

... Health and Human Services and FEMA will decide where each machine will be installed, Andrews said.

“All 60 systems will be available by early May for prioritization and distribution by FEMA and HHS,” he said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5476 on: April 14, 2020, 06:36:25 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5477 on: April 14, 2020, 07:01:09 PM »
Another bit of good news....

The one part of their solutions that all of these four share is testing, tracing and isolation...

I agree 100%. And I just can't understand why other countries do not copy them as fast as possible. Why doesn't every country (at least those able) perform mass testing and tracing???
In my country, the person responsible for the pandemic said "no testing is able to stop the virus", so they do test only for the very sick. Seriously. Unbelievable. It's like saying "no radar can stop enemy airplanes".

El CID,

That is the single best analogy I have seen or read about testing.  Thank you!

Sam

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5478 on: April 14, 2020, 07:11:51 PM »
+1

Hard to come up with really good analogies but this one nails it!

Well done, El Cid.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5479 on: April 14, 2020, 07:21:31 PM »
Friend is worrying about the forest fire near Tjernobyl.

Well, there was also a bit of a panic in Sweden in the spring of 1986. After that, a few thousand children in the Ukraine got thyroid cancer. Usually treatable.

Now we will be run over by the coronavirus, Tens of thousands will get pneumonia, for which there is no real treatment, which is often fatal.

And the country is not panicking.

Maybe this is due to the mass media being very reassuring etc.

The world is upside down. The Zone may be the safest place on Earth.

Safety is a relative thing. Radiation, except at extremely high levels, takes time to kill. That dissociates the cause and effect in peoples thinking, making it even harder to relate to.

The “red forest” area and others are intensely contaminated. Mankind mostly left the zone. That allowed nature to return. And quite quickly nature has begun recovery. Looked at without considering the devastating impact of human presence, this looks naively like the hazards from radiation must therefor be small. That is flatly wrong.

The plants can tolerate higher doses than animals. They are impacted, but to a lesser degree. The animals are hugely impacted with shortened life spans, increased rates of deformity and disease. But these are nothing compared to the impacts of human presence, and so they are -relatively- flourishing.

The cesium and strontium isotopes are moving slowly deeper into the soil column, and radioactively decaying.  The mobile nuclides like technetium have mostly washed away. The long lived actinides are a larger problem.

The fire did indeed remobilize many of these and send them off on the wind to contaminate other areas - and yes, people. That is indeed a problem.

But just as with the animals, these impacts compete with other impacts. And the delayed effects make them less apparent. Induction of and dying from cancer takes time. The effect though important is relatively small at ~1 in 650 from all causes (cancers plus cardiovascular plus stroke plus gastrointestinal plus neurological deaths) per Sievert of exposure. These are common causes of deaths, and as a result, the radiation causation gets buried in the data with the other causation, except at quite high doses. Even then, the many year to decades long delay between cause and effect makes “seeing” it hard for people. It is non-obvious.

Contracting a virus, suffering its consequences, and possibly dying (~1 in 25), is very fast and relatively certain, and plainly obvious as to cause and effect.

Even then, peoples beliefs and desires often strongly interfere with their ability to believe and therefor to “see” these immediate impacts.

Sam

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5480 on: April 14, 2020, 07:38:06 PM »
In Israel it is estimated that cases are typically confirmed 11 days after infection, due to a mix of several factors. During that time the original patient A infects some B cases who then go on to infect some C cases before the official diagnosis arrives for A. Sometimes C cases even manage to infect D cases by that time. Thus isolating A's direct contacts until they develop symptoms and then their own diagnosis arrives is very much insufficient to halt the spread. It is estimated that cutting time to diagnosis from 11 to 6 days will enable to remove most lockdown restrictions.
As symptoms typically start around day 5, this requires a combination of speeding up the testing and tracing cycle for symptomatic patients, as well as proactively testing known contacts of a diagnosed case before they develop any symptoms, and even testing some known contacts of these contacts before any symptoms or further diagnosis.

This is certainly difficult and costly - but halting the economy is much more difficult and costly, and losing 1%+ of the population to a pandemic is even more difficult and costly. So the answer is really easy when considered rationally.

Note: the above estimates are from a report by the research institute of the Ministry of Health which has access to detailed case data.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5481 on: April 14, 2020, 07:43:21 PM »
Sam, how do you see the large spatial heterogeneity in social distancing compliance and the concomitant impact on the reproductive number playing out here in the US? I don't think projections based on the nationwide reduction mean much as the geographic picture is so varied.

That is, in my opinion, a hugely important set of questions. It also isn’t easy to assess or answer. The data we have is strongly impacted by all sorts of factors, and by choices made by people based on their beliefs. The beliefs are not uniformly distributed, and as a result create large scale variable differences. The end result of which is a comparison of often fairly to quite different things when looking at the raw numbers.

For example: in areas where the beliefs of the leaders guided by experts has led to wider testing, a greater proportion of presymptomatic people, and presumably some significant portion of asymptomatic people, increases the apparent rate of disease to closer to the true rate of disease. In areas where leaders based on political or philosophical beliefs refuse to test, or test less, the converse is true, and the testing evaluated rates of disease are more divorced from reality. These differences have huge impacts on the actions taken and the course of the pandemic.

However, in general the beliefs and testing dichotomy go hand in hand with population density, with testing and response being greater in urban than rural areas.

At the same time, the contact rate (R0) is inherently dramatically different between the two. Urban areas allow for and cause a much higher contact rate and a vastly higher disease growth rate. That seems to be on the order of 1.25 - 1.36 x/day in dense urban areas and 1.06 - 1.20 x/day in rural areas. Those are very crude observations and first order estimates of my own. They are biased by all sorts of factors, including the testing rates, which no doubt makes them wrong. So, they should not be relied upon. We might have a better assessment of that a decade from now in retrospective analyses. But due to the phenomenological issues in the data, that too seems likely to be fraught with problems and to likely lead to far more perceived certainty than is warranted.

One impact of the differences in these two broad groups is that the urban areas are hit first and hardest. They also have the greater contact with outsiders that seeded the disease into the population. The rural areas are not immune or even different really. They are instead only slightly insulated from this first contact and growth rate. Inevitably, the disease will hit them as well.

The responses though will also cause differing impacts. The urban areas will and have seen massive growth rates, immediate impacts and consequences. They responded as expected by going to self isolation and distancing first. Their beliefs incline them to follow the advice of experts. And the impacts are relatively obvious.

The rural areas seeing less impact from growth of viral infection, and being philosophically inclined to distrust authority and “experts”, will and have resisted self quarantine and distancing. Until they see the ravages of the disease first hand they are likely to continue in the same way. Even when they see the impacts personally, they will be inclined to disbelieve them. And since the growth rate is slower, they will likely conclude that they are somehow different, better, and more special. This will reinforce their own beliefs with devastating consequences.

It is quite likely they will be among the first to break quarantine. The disease spread is only slower in these communities. It is still relatively rapid compared to a lot of diseases. And the consequences will be as severe as in urban areas. The rural areas have less resources to be able to respond though, so the impacts will likely be worse. And this will be compounded by the lesser levels of testing, thereby delaying when the leaders “see” the impacts.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 08:49:00 PM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5482 on: April 14, 2020, 08:03:43 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

The same holds true for all ‘major’ holidays.

In just the few data sets I have examined closely, what seems to help tremendously is to use a centered seven day moving average of the data. There is a lot of noise in the data that results from human variation in reporting based on the day of the week and weekend effects. Holidays and special events compound this. But they too mostly go away in a seven day average. Centering the average helps to put the impacts on the correct dates.

Also, time lagging or shifting the data by 10-11 days also makes things somewhat clearer.

The average time from infection to symptoms seems to be stable at 5-7 days, though the distribution has a broad right tailed distribution with symptoms showing in as little as 2 days and as many as 28 (or longer).

The time to seek treatment seems to average about 2 days. And the time for testing confirmation seems to be about 2-3 days.

The sum of those is 10-11 days.

The serial generation time seems to be less known. Various analyses have placed that at 4.7, 5.9, 7.2 and 7.5 days with fairly tight distributions. These are in conflict with one another due to the tightness of the assessed variations.

The R0 as a result is also variable. Add to that the population density impacts on the R0, and the result is variation from 1.5 to >20 on the R0. Even small variations in the R0 have large impacts on the models.

During the early free growing phase in the first 28 days or so, the cumulative count of cases is most informative. After that it is important to shift to the new case count. In the first fortnight, the exponential growth dominates, and there are few or no recovered cases in the population to muddy the Dara. Also, the total count rate is low making the daily counts less reliable.

After the first fortnight, and especially after social reactions (self quarantine ...) begin, the exponential changes causing muddying of the data; and the relative importance of the recovered cases (who are non infective) grows in the data set. As this happens, the new case per day data becomes more representative. Also, by that point, the rate of new cases per day is larger which also reduces the noise in that data.

What seems to be much more useful is to ignore the serial time, and R0, and to instead use the observed growth rate in daily new cases (using a seven day moving average of the data). This creates other artifacts and introduces other errors, and those must be kept in mind. Still, the daily-growth-rate-changes, in my opinion, better & more smoothly assess the impacts of all of the factors involved in the transmission with a single parameter that is more easily assessed from the data by looking at the slope of the log curves of the smoothed daily data.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 08:48:20 PM by Sam »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5483 on: April 14, 2020, 08:17:46 PM »
Hunger for 'Good News' Grows Amid Coronavirus Crisis
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/hunger-good-news-grows-coronavirus-crisis-200414074221888.html

Battered by grim headlines, horrifying statistics and deep uncertainty over the coronavirus pandemic, many people worldwide are trying to lift their spirits by seeking out positive news stories.

Sites specialising in upbeat news have seen a surge in recent weeks, and Google searches for "good news" have jumped five-fold since the start of the year.

The Good News Network, created in the late 1990s, has seen traffic treble in the past month with more than 10 million visitors, according to founder and editor Geri Weis-Corbley.

-------------------------

UK Accused of Underreporting Senior Virus Deaths

The boss of one of the UK's biggest nursing home operators says the number of reported coronavirus deaths among elderly residents is much higher than has been officially reported.

The government says outbreaks of COVID-19 have been reported in one in eight UK care homes. But David Behan, chairman of home operator HC-One, said cases of the new coronavirus had been reported in 232 of the firm's homes - two-thirds of the total.

He says 311 residents have died with confirmed or suspected COVID-19

---------------------------

More than 3,600 U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Have Been Linked to Nursing Homes
https://time.com/5819859/us-nursing-home-deaths/

More than 3,600 deaths nationwide have been linked to coronavirus outbreaks in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, an alarming rise in just the past two weeks, according to the latest count by The Associated Press.

Because the federal government has not been releasing a count of its own, the AP has kept its own running tally based on media reports and state health departments. The latest count of at least 3,621 deaths is up from about 450 deaths just 10 days ago.

But the true toll among the 1 million mostly frail and elderly people who live in such facilities is likely much higher, experts say, because most state counts don’t include those who died without ever being tested for COVID-19.

Outbreaks in just the past few weeks have included one at a nursing home in suburban Richmond, Virginia, that has killed 42 and infected more than 100, another at nursing home in central Indiana that has killed 24 and infected 16, and one at a veteran’s home in Holyoke, Mass., that has killed 38, infected 88 and prompted a federal investigation. This comes weeks after an outbreak at a nursing home in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland that has so far claimed 43 lives.

And those are just the outbreaks we know about.

--------------------------

Coronavirus: Europe's Care Homes Struggle as Deaths Rise
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52147861

As nursing and care homes across Europe battle to stop the spread of Covid-19 among the elderly, France has revealed 1,416 residents have succumbed to the virus since the epidemic began.

Alarming cases have emerged in the Spanish capital Madrid, with reports of dozens of deaths in two nursing homes.

Residents were taken to hospital in the Italian city of Naples after a care home outbreak claimed several lives.

Cases have also been reported in 100 care homes around the Swedish capital.

Although authorities in the Stockholm region have not given figures, public broadcaster SVT says more than 400 people have been infected and about 50 have died.

The area worst affected is the Grand Est region near the German border, where two-thirds of care homes have been caught up in the pandemic. Regional health agency ARS says 570 elderly residents have died in the Grand Est.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5484 on: April 14, 2020, 08:23:50 PM »
Waiting in the Wings: Scientists Discover Six New Coronaviruses in Bats
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-scientists-coronaviruses.html

Researchers with the Smithsonian's Global Health Program have discovered six new coronaviruses in bats in Myanmar—the first time these viruses have been detected anywhere in the world. Future studies will evaluate the potential for transmission across species to better understand the risks to human health. According to the authors, the newly discovered coronaviruses are not closely related to coronaviruses Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-1), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) or COVID-19.

Researchers detected these new viruses while conducting biosurveillance of animals and people to better understand the circumstances for disease spillover as part of the PREDICT project between 2016-18. PREDICT, an initiative funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and initiated by the Obama administration, supported the global discovery and surveillance of pathogens that have the potential to spread from animals to humans.

... "Many coronaviruses may not pose a risk to people, but when we identify these diseases early on in animals, at the source, we have a valuable opportunity to investigate the potential threat," said Suzan Murray, director of the Smithsonian's Global Health Program and co-author of the study. "Vigilant surveillance, research and education are the best tools we have to prevent pandemics before they occur."

----------------------------

Trump Administration Ended Pandemic Early-Warning Program to Detect Coronaviruses
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection

Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program.

One of those labs was the Wuhan Institute of Virology — the Chinese lab that quickly identified SARS-CoV-2, Mazet said.

The Wuhan lab received USAID funding for equipment, and PREDICT coordinators connected the scientists there with researchers in other countries in order to synchronize tracking of novel viruses before SARS-CoV-2.

The project’s second funding cycle concluded on Sept. 30, 2019, less than two months before the new coronavirus probably began spreading. It was granted a zero-dollar six-month extension — through March 2020 — to write up final reports.

----------------------------

Scientists Were Hunting for the Next Ebola. Now the U.S. Has Cut Off Their Funding.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/health/predict-usaid-viruses.amp.html

In a move that worries many public health experts, the federal government has quietly shut down a surveillance program for dangerous animal viruses that someday may infect humans.

Ending the program, experts fear, will leave the world more vulnerable to lethal pathogens like Ebola and MERS that emerge from unexpected places, such as bat-filled trees, gorilla carcasses and camel barns.

The program, known as PREDICT and run by the United States Agency for International Development, was inspired by the 2005 H5N1 bird flu scare. Launched 10 years ago, the project has cost about $207 million.

The initiative has collected over 140,000 biological samples from animals and found over 1,000 new viruses, including a new strain of Ebola. Predict also trained about 5,000 people in 30 African and Asian countries, and has built or strengthened 60 medical research laboratories, mostly in poor countries.

... Dennis Carroll, the former director of USAID’s emerging threats division who helped design Predict, oversaw it for a decade and retired when it was shut down. The surveillance project is closing because of “the ascension of risk-averse bureaucrats,” he said.

Fieldwork ceased at the end of September 2019 after funding ran out, and the program was ended in March 2020 by the Trump administration, which has also cut funding for other global health security programs.

Because USAID’s chief mission is economic aid, he added, some federal officials felt uncomfortable funding cutting-edge science like tracking exotic pathogens.

... Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, the former prime minister of Norway and former World Health Organization director-general, was co-chair of a panel that in September 2019 issued a report detailing the world’s failure to prepare for pandemics. “Americans need to understand how much their health security depends on that of other countries, often countries that have no capacity to do this themselves,” Dr. Brundtland said.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/09/experts-detail-global-pandemic-readiness-gaps-offer-steps

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PREDICT_(USAID)

-------------------------

Cost Benefit Analysis:

PREDICT Program: $207 Million over 10yrs vs $2.2 Trillion + 17 million unemployed?

Tough Call
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

John_The_Elder

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5485 on: April 14, 2020, 09:39:16 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

Terry I appreciated your "joke" but I think it went over the heads of all the scientific people here ;)
John

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5486 on: April 14, 2020, 09:51:23 PM »
I got it :)

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5487 on: April 14, 2020, 10:00:12 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry
Terry I appreciated your "joke" but I think it went over the heads of all the scientific people here ;)

I got it - and ignored it, for the very much more important issue of temporal data analysis in the face of human behaviors; rather than pointing out the original myth involved and the underlying story of the "death of the sun", and it's rebirth, heralding the winter's solstice .... etc....

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5488 on: April 14, 2020, 10:07:17 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

The same holds true for all ‘major’ holidays.
<snip>
I think you missed the point Sam. Easter is the celebration of Jesus Christ being alive three days after his execution. This is not the forum to discuss who  believes that or doesn't. The comment struck me as light hearted and made me smile despite the seriousness of the subjects.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5489 on: April 14, 2020, 10:24:35 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

Terry I appreciated your "joke" but I think it went over the heads of all the scientific people here ;)

It probably did to those who put their faith in science only.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5490 on: April 14, 2020, 10:48:38 PM »
After Putin's Bravado, COVID-19 is Starting to Hit Russia Hard
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/russia-coronavirus-putin-moscow-hospitals-beds/

Moscow – Less than a month ago Russia's state-controlled media showed President Vladimir Putin talking about how the country had managed to contain the new coronavirus and keep the situation "under control."

But Russia has now seen a surge in COVID-19 infections, and Putin's tone has become much less optimistic.

"We are seeing that the situation is changing every single day and regrettably not for the better," he said Monday during a video conference with senior health care officials. "The number of sick people is increasing along with the number of serious cases."

He acknowledged that Russia has not yet hit the peak of its epidemic, not even in hard-hit Moscow, where two thirds of the cases have been diagnosed.

On Tuesday, the country's virus task force reported a total of 21,102 infections and warned that Moscow will soon face a shortage of hospital beds.

The city has been reorganizing more and more of its hospitals to expand the number of beds for coronavirus patients, and a new hospital is rapidly being built, but it's unclear if that will be enough.

Deputy Mayor Anastasia Rakova said last week that Moscow's hospitals and ambulances were already stretched to the limit. Videos and photos emerged on social media last week showing lines of dozens of ambulances waiting for hours outside the hospitals. The video was even picked up by state-run media.

 

The task force put out a statement this week warning that despite the growing number of state, federal and private clinics joining the effort, there could be a shortage of hospital beds in the next two to three weeks in the capital.

Meanwhile, China has said nearly half of newly detected COVID-19 cases in that country are now coming across the border from Russia - mostly Chinese nationals returning home.

---------------------------

Moscow Warns It Faces Coronavirus Hospital Bed Shortage Within Weeks
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN21W0XR

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Authorities in Moscow have warned that the Russian capital may run out of hospital beds to treat a rising influx of coronavirus patients in the next two to three weeks despite frantic efforts to get more beds in place.

Moscow, Russia's worst-hit region, has rushed to reconfigure hospitals to treat patients of the new virus and made thousands of new beds available.

But officials said those efforts looked insufficient and that they had to ramp up capacity further.

"...The operational headquarters predicts that despite the inclusion of an increasing number of state, federal and commercial clinics, a shortage of beds in redeveloped hospitals is possible in the next two to three weeks," the Moscow city health department said.

Sergei Savostyanov, a Moscow lawmaker who sits on the local parliament's healthcare commission, told Reuters last week that hospital capacity would be close to breaking point if new cases rose by more than 1,500 in the capital every day. ... New confirmed infections in the Russian capital shot up by 1,489 overnight.

Moscow Deputy Mayor Anastasia Rakova said on Friday that the number of seriously sick patients requiring hospitalisation was rising quickly, creating what she said was a "dramatic" burden on the city's healthcare system.

On Saturday, one coronavirus patient, Georgiy Federov, described the situation in the hospital where he was taken as "close to catastrophic".

"The admissions room was packed with sick people, and most had identical symptoms... Ambulances were arriving every five to seven minutes," he wrote on social media, adding that he had refused to be held in hospital.


"Medical staff and doctors are really working as if it was wartime. It's some sort of crazy conveyer belt of sick people... Everyone is placed in wards together. Clearly, bed spaces are already filled to the brim."

------------------------------



-------------------------------

OBTW, I thought Terry's turn of phrase was hilarious.. ;D
I think JC would get a chuckle from it also.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5491 on: April 14, 2020, 11:21:06 PM »
Global Coronavirus Cases Approach Two Million, Doubling In Under Two Weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/13/global-coronavirus-cases-top-two-million-doubling-in-under-two-weeks.html

Reported COVID-19 cases around the world approached two million on Monday.

Covid-19 has infected more than 1,990,717 people around the world and killed at least 125,896 people, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached one million and the global death toll surpassed 50,000 on April 2.

----------------------------

Rio de Janeiro governor tests positive for coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/million-confirmed-coronavirus-live-updates-200413235036857.html

The governor of Rio de Janeiro state said that he had tested positive for the new coronavirus, becoming the latest Brazilian government leader to contract the disease as it spreads across the country.

In a video posted on Twitter, Governor Wilson Witzel said that he had not been feeling well in recent days with a fever and sore throat, so he requested a test and received the positive result on Tuesday

----------------------------

US State Department reports first coronavirus fatality in Washington D.C.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/million-confirmed-coronavirus-live-updates-200413235036857.html

The US State Department reported its first coronavirus fatality among the staff at its headquarters in Washington, bringing the total death toll in its global workforce due to the outbreak to five.

"The individual passed over the weekend," William Walters, Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Operations in Bureau of Medical Services told reporters in a teleconference. "He was hospitalised for some time fighting the coronavirus."

Walters said that the deceased individual, a civil servant, had been out of the office for more than two weeks. He did not provide further details including in what role the individual served at the State Department, citing privacy issues.

Among the other four fatalities in the State Department's global workforce, three others were locally employed staff in foreign missions while a fourth person, a contractor working in New York, died of the illness last week.

----------------------------

Scientists leverage lockdown as dry run for Mars mission
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/french-scientist-leverages-lockdown-dry-run-mars-mission-200414153446002.html

French space scientists are using the COVID-19 lockdown as a dry run for what it will be like to be cooped up inside a spacecraft on a mission to Mars.

The guinea pigs in the experiment are 60 students who are confined to their dormitory rooms in the southern city of Toulouse - not far removed from the kind of conditions they might experience on a long space mission.

----------------------------

IMF says 'worst recession since Great Depression' is likely
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/imf-worst-recession-great-depression-200414125253286.html

The International Monetary Fund did not mince words about its dire outlook for a coronavirus-ravaged world economy.

"It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the financial crisis a decade ago," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the foreward for the fund's World Economic Outlook.

----------------------------

It's Time to Talk More Seriously About the Food Supply
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/14/politics/what-matters-april-13/index.html

The UN warned this month that the response to the outbreak threatens the global food supply.

... "Border closures, movement restrictions, and disruptions in the shipping and aviation industries have made it harder to continue food production and transport goods internationally -- placing countries with few alternative food sources at high risk."

... massive corporations like Nestle and Unilever have warned of a food crisis and pointed out the food supply chain is international. The US relies on other countries for its food supply. Other countries, in turn, rely on the US. Here's data on agricultural imports and exports maintained by the USDA.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/agricultural-trade/

What millions of Americans are experiencing more acutely than ever right now is food insecurity, thanks to the sudden increase in unemployment and the shutdown of vast sectors of the US economy. That includes millions of needy families with children who are still waiting to see food benefits that were approved by Congress weeks ago.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5492 on: April 14, 2020, 11:36:46 PM »
Study Points to Evidence of Stray Dogs as Possible Origin of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-evidence-stray-dogs-sars-cov-pandemic.html

Scientists have been looking for an intermediate animal host between bats, which are known to harbor many coronaviruses, and the first introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into humans.

Many animals, beginning with snakes and most recently, pangolins, have all been put forth as the likely intermediate, but the viruses isolated from them are too divergent from SARS-CoV-2, suggesting a common ancestor too far back in time—-living in the 1960s.

Now, University of Ottawa biology professor Xuhua Xia, tracing coronavirus signatures across different species, has proposed that stray dogs—-specifically dog intestines—- may have been the origin of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

"Our observations have allowed the formation of a new hypothesis for the origin and initial transmission of SARS-CoV-2," said Xia. "The ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and its nearest relative, a bat coronavirus, infected the intestine of canids, most likely resulting in a rapid evolution of the virus in canids and its jump into humans. This suggests the importance of monitoring SARS-like coronaviruses in feral dogs in the fight against SARS-CoV-2."

... When viruses invade a host, their genomes often bear the battle scars from fighting off and evading the host's immune system through changes and adaptations found within their genomes.

Humans and mammals have a key antiviral sentinel protein, called ZAP, which can stop a virus in its tracks by preventing its multiplication in the host and degrading its genome. The viral target is a pair of chemical letters, called CpG dinucleotides, within its RNA genome. CpG dinucleotides act as a signpost that a person's immune system uses to seek and destroy a virus. ZAP patrols human lungs, and is made in large amounts in the bone marrow and lymph nodes, where the immune system first primes its attack.

But it's been shown that viruses can punch back. Single-stranded coronaviruses, like SARS-CoV, can avoid ZAP by reducing these CpG signposts, thus rendering ZAP powerless. A similar examination of HIV, another RNA virus, shows that it has also exploited this evolutionary trick to lose CpG in response to human antiviral defenses. One implication of this is that the remaining CpG dinucleotides on the viral genome are likely functionally important for the virus and could serve as target of modification to attenuate virulence in vaccine development.

"Think of a decreased amount of CpG in a viral pathogen as an increased threat to public health, while an increased amount of CpG decreases the threat of such viral pathogens," said Xia. "A virus with an increased amount of CpG would be better targeted by the host immune system, and result in reduced virulence, which would be akin to natural vaccines."

To perform the study, Xia examined all 1252 full-length betacoronavirus genomes deposited into GenBank to date. Xia found that SARS-CoV-2 and its most closely related known relative, a bat coronavirus (BatCoV RaTG13), have the lowest amount of CpG among its close coronavirus relatives.

"The most striking pattern is an isolated but dramatic downward shift in viral genomic CpG in the lineage leading to BatCoV RaTG13 which was reported to be sampled from a bat (Rhinolophus affinis) in Yunnan Province in 2013 but only sequenced by Wuhan Institute of Virology after the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in late 2019," said Xia. "This bat CoV genome is the closest phylogenetic relative of SARS-CoV-2, sharing 96% sequence similarity."

"In this context, it is unfortunate that BatCoV RaTG13 was not sequenced in 2013, otherwise the downshifting in CpG might have served as a warning due to two highly significant implications," said Xia. "First, the virus likely evolved in a tissue with high ZAP expression which favors viral genomes with a low CpG. Second and more importantly, survival of the virus indicates that it has successfully evaded ZAP-mediated antiviral defense. In other words, the virus has become stealthy and dangerous to humans."

Xia applied his CpG tool to reexamining the camel origin of MERS, and found those viruses infecting camel digestive system also had lower genomic CpG than those infecting camel respiratory system.

When he examined the data in dogs, he found that only genomes from canine coronaviruses (CCoVs), which had caused a highly contagious intestinal disease worldwide in dogs, have genomic CpG values similar to those observed in SARS-CoV-2 and BatCoV RaTG13. Second, canids, like camels, also have coronaviruses infecting their digestive system with CpG lower than those infecting their respiratory system (canine respiratory coronavirus or CRCoV belonging to BetaCoV).

In addition, the known cellular receptor for SARS-CoV-2 entry into the cell is ACE2 (angiotensin I converting enzyme 2). ACE2 is made in the human digestive system, at the highest levels in the small intestine and duodenum, with relatively low expression in the lung. This suggests that mammalian digestive systems are likely to be a key target infected by coronaviruses.

"This is consistent with the interpretation that the low CpG in SARS-CoV-2 was acquired by the ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 evolving in mammalian digestive systems and interpretation is further corroborated by a recent report that a high proportion of COVID-19 patients also suffer from digestive discomfort," said Xia. "In fact, 48.5% presented with digestive symptoms as their chief complaint."

Humans are the only other host species Xia observed to produce coronavirus genomes with low genomic CpG values. In a comprehensive study of the first 12 COVID-19 patients in the U.S., one patient reported diarrhea as the initial symptom before developing fever and cough, and stool samples from 7 out of 10 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, including 3 patients with diarrhea.

Canids are often observed to lick their anal and genital regions, not only during mating but also in other circumstances. Such behavior would facilitate viral transmission from the digestive system to the respiratory system and the interchange between a gastrointestinal pathogen and a respiratory tract and lung pathogen.

"In this context, it is significant that the bat coronavirus (BatCoV RaTG13), as documented in its genomic sequence in GenBank (MN996532), was isolated from a fecal swab. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 has evolved in mammalian intestine or tissues associated with intestine."

Based on his results, Xia presents a scenario in which the coronavirus first spread from bats to stray dogs eating bat meat. Next, the presumably strong selection against CpG in the viral RNA genome in canid intestines resulted in rapid evolution of the virus leading to reduced genomic CpG. Finally, the reduced viral genomic CpG allowed the virus to evade human ZAP-mediated immune response and became a severe human pathogen.

Xuhua Xia, Extreme genomic CpG deficiency in SARS-CoV-2 and evasion of host antiviral defense, Molecular Biology and Evolution, (2020)
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa094/5819559
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5493 on: April 14, 2020, 11:42:04 PM »
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

The same holds true for all ‘major’ holidays.
<snip>
I think you missed the point Sam. Easter is the celebration of Jesus Christ being alive three days after his execution. This is not the forum to discuss who  believes that or doesn't. The comment struck me as light hearted and made me smile despite the seriousness of the subjects.

Which is precisely why I skipped it - until John The Elder decided to make a point of it - and now you. It is not I who decided to bring this here. It is several of you who elected to bring religion to a science forum followed by a mild insult. If you truly want it dropped, then simply drop it.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 11:49:47 PM by Sam »

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5494 on: April 15, 2020, 12:06:08 AM »
If you truly want it dropped, then simply drop it.
+ one
Please keep your belief in  gods well away from this forum. Demonstrations of faith only results in religion sidetracking the discourse.
 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5495 on: April 15, 2020, 12:28:24 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5496 on: April 15, 2020, 12:36:38 AM »
Coronavirus Distancing May Need to Continue Until 2022, Say Experts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-distancing-continue-until-2022-lockdown-pandemic

Physical distancing measures may need to be in place intermittently until 2022, scientists have warned in an analysis that suggests there could be resurgences of Covid-19 for years to come.

The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that a one-time lockdown will not be sufficient to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be larger than the current one without continued restrictions.


Effects of depletion of susceptibles and seasonality on the effective reproduction number by strain and season

Open Access: https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abb5793

One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment.

Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said: “Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible.

“Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [of 2020] is not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections.”


The latest paper adds to a building scientific consensus that physical distancing may be required for considerably longer in order to keep case numbers within hospitals’ critical care capacity.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873729/06-spi-m-o-consensus-view-on-behavioural-and-social-interventions.pdf

The prospect of intermittent distancing raises difficult questions about what guidance will be given to high-risk groups, including over-70s and those with compromised immune systems.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 01:40:09 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5497 on: April 15, 2020, 01:15:02 AM »
New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Confirmed and Probable COVID-19 Deaths Daily ... - NYC.govwww1.nyc.gov › assets › doh › downloads › pdf › imm
PDF
39 mins ago - Laboratory-confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths in among New York City residents, count (% of cases with demographic data
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5498 on: April 15, 2020, 02:40:34 AM »
Trump has been sabotaging the world's response since the beginning of this emergency, and he has to sabotage it even further to save face he will do so. It does not matter how many people die.

He just called for the US to end WHO funding. Right in the middle of a global pandemic.

We are witnessing Trump get away with mass murder for everyone to see. It will not get better.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5499 on: April 15, 2020, 04:31:10 AM »
We May Need 300,000 Contact Tracers to Defeat COVID-19. We Have 2,200
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/we-may-need-300000-contact-tracers-to-defeat-covid-19-we-have-2200/

As Americans anxiously await news of when they can emerge from their 4-meter-wide personal-space bubbles and go back to something resembling normal life, public health experts are working furiously to determine essential steps to get us there safely. And a consensus is emerging that key among those steps is recruiting a massive number of people to perform contact tracing.

"It is going to be critical," director Robert Redfield of the US Centers for Disease Control told NPR in an interview late last week. Scaled-up contact tracing, along with increased testing, is needed to "make sure that when we open up, we open up for good."

Researchers estimate that each person with COVID-19 goes on to infect two to three other people, on average. That means that one infected person could give rise to more than 59,000 cases if 10 rounds of infections are allowed to take place unimpeded.

To keep such exponential infection from happening again in the US, we'll need more testing and "very aggressive" contact tracing, Redfield said. Other experts heartily agreed and many are trying to estimate just how much testing and contact tracing we'll need.

In a report from the think-tank American Enterprise Institute, public health experts laid out a road map to reopening the US, noting the need for increased testing. It estimated that "a national capacity of at least 750,000 tests per week would be sufficient to move to case-based interventions when paired with sufficient capacity in supportive public-health infrastructure (e.g., contact tracing)."

We have a lot more work to do on expanding contact tracing. While some researchers and big tech companies such as Apple and Google are looking into using mobile device location data and applications to track and notify contacts, many experts are now calling for a massive recruitment of health workers to get the necessary phone interviews and follow-up done effectively.

But, with chronically underfunded public health infrastructure and a lack of federal coordination, it won't be easy. Many experts have estimated that we'll need tens of thousands of contact tracers to keep the United States open. Dr. Frieden, for instance, called for an "army" of 300,000 contact tracers. A report by public health researchers at Johns Hopkins and the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) estimated that we'll need to add at least 100,000 contact tracers to the mix. To match the level of contact-tracing done in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began, we would need more than 265,000 contact tracers.

We currently only have 2,200 contact tracers in the country, ASTHO reports.
...

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_archive/pubs-pdfs/2020/a-national-plan-to-enable-comprehensive-COVID-19-case-finding-and-contact-tracing-in-the-US.pdf

--------------------------------



-----------------------

New Model Looks At What Might Happen If SARS-CoV-2 Is Here To Stay
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/new-model-looks-at-what-might-happen-if-sars-cov-2-is-here-to-stay/
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 04:37:14 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late