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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 349315 times)

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5550 on: April 16, 2020, 03:36:48 PM »
The number of death in care homes in NL nearly doubled in the week of march 30 - april 5 (week 11). the 797 per week rate shot up to about 1485.

General mortality was 3132 per week and that shot up to about 5100.
Biggest peak in 80+

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6045097/sterfte-onder-bewoners-verpleeghuizen-begin-april-bijna-verdubbeld.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5551 on: April 16, 2020, 03:54:49 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5552 on: April 16, 2020, 04:14:30 PM »
Another thing to consider:

Blood donors tend to bias toward healthy young adults. No kids, no diabetics, no morbidly obese, no COPD, rarely over 70, etc. So the cohort selectively excludes many that are most susceptible.

3% could easily become 2%.

And as the head of the National Institute for Health (RIVM), Jaap van Dissel, disclosed the results during a debate with parliament, it sounds like it's an internal National Institute for Health (RIVM) study.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5553 on: April 16, 2020, 04:27:56 PM »
It is a study by Sanquin (the blood banks).

So the cohort selectively excludes many that are most susceptible.

Except kids the one you list have worse outcomes but that is not the same as a possible encounter with the disease which this study is a about.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5554 on: April 16, 2020, 04:48:00 PM »
It doesn't really matter if the Dutch blood donor data is 100% or only 85% accurate. 3% infected population is very far from herd immunity meaning countermeasures and additional epidemic waves will keep us company for some time. This is gonna be a long ride.

A long ride will probably mean civilisational collapse, as fear and insecurity, incessantly pumped up by the media, will prevent people from being the consumers they were conditioned to be. Consumerism is a central pillar of our current global system. It could transition to something more resilient (if the lessons of this crisis are heeded), but it will take years, if not decades. It will collapse if everyone's eyes are glued to statistics (with no context), and fear and panic are used for ratings and to make sure people obey the installed measures.

The angle of the narrative will have to change, something along the lines of: 'Yes, this is a terrible new disease, but there are many of those. People are dying, but they are mostly very old and have comorbidities. And besides, 150 thousand people die every day. Death is a part of life. It's true that people die before their time, but on average perhaps a few months, not years, and certainly not 10 years. The only thing that really matters in all this, is that we prevent a collapse of our health care systems, and so we need to do as much as we can, but we must not be afraid, because we cannot afford to be in lockdown much longer.'

The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

I hope that Sweden will be (relatively) successful, that warmer temperatures do turn out to reduce the spread of the virus, and that ending lockdowns doesn't lead to new exponential rises (with everyone becoming paralysed, staring at stats). This will buy time to build out extra hospital capacity and train personnel, to deal with the next waves, as with influenza. And then I hope that some of the lessons this crisis is teaching us, will come through.
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Yuha

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5555 on: April 16, 2020, 05:17:18 PM »
Blood donors tend to bias toward healthy young adults. No kids, no diabetics, no morbidly obese, no COPD, rarely over 70, etc. So the cohort selectively excludes many that are most susceptible.

3% could easily become 2%.

On the other hand, blood donors are probably people who care about their and other people's health, and are more likely to follow social distancing rules, wash their hands diligently, etc.

So the infection rate in the general population could be a lot higher.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5556 on: April 16, 2020, 05:26:11 PM »
Austria Plans to Test All Retirement Home Residents
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-bring-asia-growth-standstill-live-updates-200415230825462.html

Austria, one of the more successful countries in Europe at flattening the curve of coronavirus infections, plans to test every retirement home resident as it expands efforts to measure the pandemic's spread, its health minister has said.

The Alpine republic acted early in its outbreak to shut schools, bars, restaurants, non-essential shops and other gathering places roughly four weeks ago. It has told the public to stay at home and work from there if possible.

"The very strong focus in the coming weeks will be the testing of all staff and all residents of retirement and care homes. We are talking, ladies and gentlemen, about 130,000 people," Health Minister Rudolf Anschober said.

-----------------------------

Africa CDC to Distribute 1 Million Tests
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/200401081427251

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) will roll outa million COVID-19 test kits next week to help countries across the continent tackle a glaring shortfall in testing.

"There is a big gap on the continent on testing," John Nkengasong, Africa CDC dirctor, said at a weekly press conference at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa. "Something has to be done."

"Maybe 15 million tests" will be required in Africa over the next three months, Nkengasong added.

Across the continent, 17,247 cases have been confirmed so far, including 911 deaths. More than 3,500 people have recovered.

----------------------------

India Hospital Segregates Muslim and Hindu Virus Patients
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/india-hospital-segregates-muslim-hindu-coronavirus-patients-200416080547650.html

In what many are calling a case of "apartheid" during a global pandemic, a government-run hospital in Ahmedabad, the main city in the western Indian state of Gujarat, has segregated coronavirus patients based on their religion, claiming the order came from the government.

"Generally, there are separate wards for male and female patients. But here, we have made separate wards for Hindu and Muslim patients. It is a decision of the government and you can ask them," Dr Gunvant H Rathod, the medical superintendent of Ahmedabad Civil Hospital, told  The Indian Express newspaper in its report on Wednesday.

... The virus makes no such distinctions.

From the same folks that thought this was a good idea:

... In India, politicians from the ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party have been touting cow urine as a cure for Covid-19.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/cow-urine-dung-can-treat-coronavirus-says-assam-bjp-mla-1651708-2020-03-02

----------------------------

UK Death Toll Rises 861 to 13,729
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-bring-asia-growth-standstill-live-updates-200415230825462.html

The number of people in the United Kingdom who have died in hospital from COVID-19 has increased by 861 to 13,729, according to the health ministry.

Following several days of decreasing numbers, the figure represents a rise of 100 on the previous day's rate of increase. The latest numbers also showed the number of people in Britain to have tested positive exceeded 100,000.

-----------------------------

Health authorities in Russia reported 3,448 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, up from 3,388 a day earlier, bringing the overall number of cases in the country 27,938, Reuters reports.

Thirty-four people died in the last 24 hours, which took the national coronavirus death toll to 232, the Russian coronavirus crisis response centre said.

The latest figures came as the Kremlin said it would accept a “kind offer” by Donald Trump to ship ventilators from the US if Russia felt it needed them.

Russia shipped ventilators and protective gear this month to the US after a phone call between Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Trump told Putin in a recent phone call that the US could reciprocate as it begins to produce more ventilators, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call on Thursday.

“If necessary, Russia would of course take advantage of this kind offer,” Peskov said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/16/coronavirus-live-news-cases-worldwide-top-2-million-trump-doubts-china-death-toll

------------------------------

Security forces enforcing the lockdown in Nigeria to curb the spread of Covid-19 have killed more people so far than the virus itself, the country’s official human rights body reports.

Nigeria has imposed a total lockdown in the capital Abuja and economic hub Lagos, a city of some 21 million people, and set restrictions in other regions in a bid to contain the spread of the coronavirus, with security forces, including the police and army, deployed to enforce them.

In a report released late on Wednesday, the National Human Rights Commission said it had received and documented “105 complaints of incidents of human rights violations perpetuated by security forces” in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states and Abuja.

Of these complaints, “there were 8 documented incidents of extrajudicial killings leading to 18 deaths”, it said. According to the latest figures published on Wednesday night, 12 people in Nigeria have died of Covid-19, out of a total of 407 confirmed cases.

https://www.nigeriarights.gov.ng/nhrc-media/press-release/100-national-human-rights-commission-press-release-on-covid-19-enforcement-so-far-report-on-incidents-of-violation-of-human-rights.html

-----------------------------

The French military has ordered an inquiry into how the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, the flagship of the naval fleet, was contaminated with Covid-19 after a third of its crew tested positive for the virus.

The cluster is especially puzzling as the nuclear-powered vessel had reportedly had no contact with the outside world since it went to sea on 15 March.

Last Friday, the French defence ministry confirmed 50 sailors had coronavirus and the ship, in the Atlantic at the time, was ordered back to base in the port of Toulon on France’s Mediterranean coast. Since then 668 sailors, one third of the 1,767-strong crew have tested positive, the French defence ministry confirmed.

“Today, 31 of them are in hospital, one in intensive care. We do not have the results for 30% of the tests,” it said in a statement.

---------------------------------

Update on USS Theodore Roosevelt: Navy officials now think the coronavirus likely arrived on the aircraft carrier with aircrews flying on and off, not during the ship’s port visit in Vietnam.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891

-----------------------------

FWIW: America has a National Center for Medical Intelligence and it’s located in Fort Detrick, Md. As you might imagine from the facility’s title, what they do is classified.
https://apnews.com/da45eec432d6ff4cc9e0825531e454a6

In late February when President Donald Trump was urging Americans not to panic over the novel coronavirus, alarms were sounding at a little-known intelligence unit situated on a U.S. Army base an hour’s drive north of Washington.

On Feb. 25, the medical intelligence unit at the National Center for Medical Intelligence raised its warning that the coronavirus would become a pandemic within 30 days from WATCHCON 2 — a probable crisis — to WATCHCON 1 — an imminent one, according to a U.S. official. That was 15 days before the W orld Health Organization declared the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic.

At the time of the warning, few coronavirus infections had been reported in the United States. That same day, Trump, who was in New Delhi, India, tweeted: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA.” In 6 weeks, however, the coronavirus spread across the world, sickening more than 2 million people with the disease COVID-19 and killing more than 26,000 people in the United States.

The center’s work typically is shared with defense and health officials, including the secretary of health and human services. Its Feb. 25 warning, first reported last month by Newsweek, was included in an intelligence briefing provided to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but it’s unknown whether Trump or other White House officials saw it. Various intelligence agencies had been including information about the coronavirus in briefing materials since early January.

Most of the information they study is public, called “open source” material. A local newspaper in Africa might publish a story about an increasing number of people getting sick, and that raises a flag because there’s no mention of any such illness on the other side of the country. A doctor in the Middle East might post concerns about a virus on social media. But unlike organizations such as the WHO, the medical intelligence team, part of the Defense Intelligence Agency, also has access to classified intelligence collected by the 17 U.S. spy agencies.

The medical unit can dig into signals intelligence and intercepts of communications collected by the National Security Agency. It can read information that CIA officers pick up in the field overseas. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency can share satellite imagery and terrain maps to help assess how a disease, like Ebola or avian flu, might spread through a population.

“Every day, all of us would come into work and read and research our area for anything that’s different — anything that doesn’t make sense, whether it’s about disease, health care, earthquakes, national disaster — anything that would affect the health of a nation,” said Martha ”Rainie” Dasche, a specialist on Africa who retired from the DIA in 2018. “We start wondering. We look at things with a jaundice eye.”

... Kaufman said massive amounts of information come out of China, where the first reports of the new coronavirus surfaced in the city of Wuhan. But because the country is run by an authoritarian government, the medical intelligence researchers glean information from the local level, not Beijing.

“Researchers, in some cases, have more success in learning information from the bottom up — not from the central communist government, but from localities,” he said. “That’s where some guy in Wuhan might be saying ‘I can’t report this because I don’t want to look bad to my boss’ or there’s a guy who says he can’t talk about avian flu because his cousin runs the bird market and doesn’t want to hurt his business.”
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 05:52:52 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5557 on: April 16, 2020, 05:29:06 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5558 on: April 16, 2020, 05:36:06 PM »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5559 on: April 16, 2020, 06:16:49 PM »
https://twitter.com/i/status/1250788907287023619

Quote
Dr. Oz just made the argument that we should reopen schools because *only* 2-3% of kids will die.

Yes, that's idiotic, the number is much, much lower.
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5560 on: April 16, 2020, 06:25:16 PM »
More and more credible sources pointing to the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus/Wuhan pneumonia/Chinese virus to the Wuhan Laboratory:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223779/Coronavirus-originated-bungled-experiments-Wuhan-lab-bombshell-report-claims.html

I've been pointing out this virus came from a lab for weeks, and now we're getting closer and closer to getting that info confirmed.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5561 on: April 16, 2020, 06:26:19 PM »
Machine Learning Algorithm Quantifies the Impact of Quarantine Measures On COVID-19's Spread
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-04-machine-algorithm-quantifies-impact-quarantine.html

A team of engineers at MIT has developed a model that uses data from the COVID-19 pandemic in conjunction with a neural network to determine the efficacy of quarantine measures and better predict the spread of the virus.

"Our model is the first which uses data from the coronavirus itself and integrates two fields: machine learning and standard epidemiology,"

Most models used to predict the spread of a disease follow what is known as the SEIR model, which groups people into "susceptible," "exposed," "infected," and "recovered." Dandekar and Barbastathis enhanced the SEIR model by training a neural network to capture the number of infected individuals who are under quarantine, and therefore no longer spreading the infection to others.

The model finds that in places like South Korea, where there was immediate government intervention in implementing strong quarantine measures, the virus spread plateaued more quickly. In places that were slower to implement government interventions, like Italy and the United States, the "effective reproduction number" of COVID-19 remains greater than one, meaning the virus has continued to spread exponentially.

The machine learning algorithm shows that with the current quarantine measures in place, the plateau for both Italy and the United States will arrive somewhere between April 15-20. This prediction is similar to other projections like that of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.



... "This is a really crucial moment of time. If we relax quarantine measures, it could lead to disaster," says Barbastathis.

According to Barbastathis, one only has to look to Singapore to see the dangers that could stem from relaxing quarantine measures too quickly. While the team didn't study Singapore's COVID-19 cases in their research, the second wave of infection this country is currently experiencing reflects their model's finding about the correlation between quarantine measures and infection rate.

"If the U.S. were to follow the same policy of relaxing quarantine measures too soon, we have predicted that the consequences would be far more catastrophic," Barbastathis added.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.03.20052084

-------------------------------
^
... the limitation of this study is that machine learning was based on incomplete and flawed tests. GIGO.

-------------------------------

Coronavirus deaths in U.S. nursing homes soar to more than 5,500
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1184536

The number of reported coronavirus deaths in long-term care facilities has more than doubled to 5,670 since last week, according to state health data gathered by NBC News, driven by huge increases in hard-hit states like New York, where more than 2 percent of nursing home residents have died of the virus.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5562 on: April 16, 2020, 06:30:31 PM »
Today's gov.uk figures

Cumulative: 327,608   people tested 103,093 positive 13,729 hospital deaths
Daily:           13,839 tests   4,618 positives   861 deaths

Deaths up by 100 as reporting lags from Easter unwind. Down by about 5% from a week ago.

...

James' model moves Rt up to 0.68, uncertainty drops to +-0.17,  which is still high enough to expect more bounces over the next few days. Tomorrow's forecast 740 (450-1200).
https://twitter.com/jamesannan

...
Today's briefing announces lockdown extended for 3 weeks.
Hospital occupancy down 3% on yesterday, with more regions joining London in looking clearly peaked.


harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5563 on: April 16, 2020, 06:30:38 PM »
It doesn't really matter if the Dutch blood donor data is 100% or only 85% accurate. 3% infected population is very far from herd immunity meaning countermeasures and additional epidemic waves will keep us company for some time. This is gonna be a long ride.

A long ride will probably mean civilisational collapse, as fear and insecurity, incessantly pumped up by the media, will prevent people from being the consumers they were conditioned to be. Consumerism is a central pillar of our current global system. It could transition to something more resilient (if the lessons of this crisis are heeded), but it will take years, if not decades. It will collapse if everyone's eyes are glued to statistics (with no context), and fear and panic are used for ratings and to make sure people obey the installed measures.

The angle of the narrative will have to change, something along the lines of: 'Yes, this is a terrible new disease, but there are many of those. People are dying, but they are mostly very old and have comorbidities. And besides, 150 thousand people die every day. Death is a part of life. It's true that people die before their time, but on average perhaps a few months, not years, and certainly not 10 years. The only thing that really matters in all this, is that we prevent a collapse of our health care systems, and so we need to do as much as we can, but we must not be afraid, because we cannot afford to be in lockdown much longer.'

The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

I hope that Sweden will be (relatively) successful, that warmer temperatures do turn out to reduce the spread of the virus, and that ending lockdowns doesn't lead to new exponential rises (with everyone becoming paralysed, staring at stats). This will buy time to build out extra hospital capacity and train personnel, to deal with the next waves, as with influenza. And then I hope that some of the lessons this crisis is teaching us, will come through.

Neven,

I agree on collapse; and this virus has the potentially to result in a large-scale collapse.

This virus is oddly the only thing that has managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While it's comforting to know that for a short while, we lowered CO2 output, the long term impacts are dangerous.

Overpopulation, and positive-feedback loops, combined with a paranoid and disillusioned populace will not bode well.

Positive feedback loops alone would have collapsed society, now there's an added element of chaos.

The ignorant masses may not cope very well with a virus they don't have the education to understand - and politicians constantly pouring mixed messages into their fragile mindsets.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5564 on: April 16, 2020, 06:51:31 PM »
More and more credible sources...


Goes on to link the dailymail
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5565 on: April 16, 2020, 07:51:33 PM »
It doesn't really matter if the Dutch blood donor data is 100% or only 85% accurate. 3% infected population is very far from herd immunity meaning countermeasures and additional epidemic waves will keep us company for some time. This is gonna be a long ride.

A long ride will probably mean civilisational collapse, as fear and insecurity, incessantly pumped up by the media, will prevent people from being the consumers they were conditioned to be. Consumerism is a central pillar of our current global system. It could transition to something more resilient (if the lessons of this crisis are heeded), but it will take years, if not decades. It will collapse if everyone's eyes are glued to statistics (with no context), and fear and panic are used for ratings and to make sure people obey the installed measures.

The angle of the narrative will have to change, something along the lines of: 'Yes, this is a terrible new disease, but there are many of those. People are dying, but they are mostly very old and have comorbidities. And besides, 150 thousand people die every day. Death is a part of life. It's true that people die before their time, but on average perhaps a few months, not years, and certainly not 10 years. The only thing that really matters in all this, is that we prevent a collapse of our health care systems, and so we need to do as much as we can, but we must not be afraid, because we cannot afford to be in lockdown much longer.'

The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

I hope that Sweden will be (relatively) successful, that warmer temperatures do turn out to reduce the spread of the virus, and that ending lockdowns doesn't lead to new exponential rises (with everyone becoming paralysed, staring at stats). This will buy time to build out extra hospital capacity and train personnel, to deal with the next waves, as with influenza. And then I hope that some of the lessons this crisis is teaching us, will come through.

Meh.
This is my narrative:
My father is 90.
My mother is 84.
My mother, at least, is in good health and she can enjoy her grandchildren and two grand-grandchildren for some years.
My daughter has diabetes Type-I
I don't give a damn about your stores and the economy, I want the aforementioned persons to survive, and hopefully, something called Modern Medicine can bring something in weeks/months/one year so my loved ones survive.

I know you like the Sweden example ('they are going to die anyways'). Well fuck that model.

You have gone from green activist to ruined Monopoly player? I don't give a damn. And so many in this world don't give a damn about you. People just want them to go through and to have their loved ones through.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5566 on: April 16, 2020, 08:25:27 PM »
The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

Neven,

This is a basic and common error. Our society is conditioned to think in terms that put commerce as primary. It isn’t. It is essential. It is not primary.

The psychological effects of this disease are terrible. The impacts of those on commerce are great. More impactful is the disease itself.  It is not in any way the messaging or narrative that is the problem. That places commerce as the priority to resolve the crisis.

To resolve the crisis requires first understanding that the disease spread is itself primary. It leads. It governs all that happens. The impacts of the disease on psychology are secondary AND important.

The impacts on commerce are tertiary. And their impacts on employment, income, work, social life ... are feedbacks from that. They are all vitally important. But they are tertiary.

Focusing on those focuses on the wrong problem.

The narrative in media is quaternary, not even tertiary. But it is for most people the first thing they see. And between the primacy of that flow of information and the vital importance of economics to day to day survival, it is not in the least surprising to find people believing that to be most important and hence primary. It still isn’t. It also easily lends itself to memes, and to political campaigns focused on those aspects. That still does not make it primary.

The disease and its progression are and remain primary. They drive everything else.

Solving the crisis requires solving the disease spread. Solving the crisis requires focusing on that primary problem.

And there two major aspects. First is the disease itself. Treatments, drugs, herbs, vaccines and such are the primary weapons there. Second is the spread of the disease. That is dominated by human behavior. There is as yet no suggestion even of an animal or insect vector playing any role. Stopping human to human spread is the major control. That then goes to isolation through many means, blocking transmission with masks, sanitizers, hand washing, and behavioral interventions are the major tools.

This virus is as contagious as chicken pox. That is hugely contagious. Controlling it requires actions commensurate with that. And that means lockdown.

If - and this is a huge if - we could simultaneously stop everyone from moving around for five to six weeks, we would likely end the virus. Five to six weeks in very small groups would cause the disease to run its course and die out. Even a few somewhat larger groups, or limited movement of essential people provide pathways for the virus to continue.

And even a single contagion chain is enough that when that isolation is lifted - the virus resumes its rampage. The vast majority of people don’t have five to six weeks of food and essential supplies on hand. Medical and other emergencies still happen.

So, five to six weeks isn’t enough. It requires longer - a lot longer.

That then endangers the existence of small companies. It depletes individual resources or strains them to the breaking point. Accordingly, massive societal sharing (financial bailouts being one such) become essential.

But these are not one time things. They have to last as long as the contagion persists - requiring isolation and shutdown.

And how long that lasts is decided by how tightly we are willing to lock ourselves down (all of us), and by how effective we are at it.

If we do this badly, or even moderately well. The period required is extended indefinitely. And that then drives people bonkers psychologically which causes controls to fail.

But failure means ultimately infecting about 90% of the population. And that means killing circa 3-9+% of the population in the first wave. And if this virus only provides two year immunity as it appears to, it means killing something like 2-6% in a second wave, and 1-5% in a third wave etc...  Each wave depletes the society of older and vulnerable people, presumably lessening the impact of each wave. But over a decade, this likely sums to 12-15% of the population dying, unless massive controls are put in place, or successful treatments or vaccines are developed. That then might limit the dying to 4% over the decade.

However, even a single adverse mutation in all those quadrillions of quadrillion+ copies of the virus throws all of this analysis out. Now we deal with a more lethal disease that spreads faster, and kills more and different people. It perhaps then targets the young, or young adults, or those in middle age.

In time, that too dies out. Extremely lethal viruses are self limiting. They destroy the population in the process.

Focusing on putting business recovery as primary assures that the disease spreads farther and faster and that it kills more people. That raises the decades death toll substantially. AND it destroys more businesses. Focusing on saving business and commerce as primary kills business and commerce.

The problem is not the narrative about the virus. The problem is and remains the virus.

Sam

« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 08:49:46 PM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5567 on: April 16, 2020, 08:30:09 PM »
It doesn't really matter if the Dutch blood donor data is 100% or only 85% accurate. 3% infected population is very far from herd immunity meaning countermeasures and additional epidemic waves will keep us company for some time. This is gonna be a long ride.

A long ride will probably mean civilisational collapse, as fear and insecurity, incessantly pumped up by the media, will prevent people from being the consumers they were conditioned to be. Consumerism is a central pillar of our current global system. It could transition to something more resilient (if the lessons of this crisis are heeded), but it will take years, if not decades. It will collapse if everyone's eyes are glued to statistics (with no context), and fear and panic are used for ratings and to make sure people obey the installed measures.

The angle of the narrative will have to change, something along the lines of: 'Yes, this is a terrible new disease, but there are many of those. People are dying, but they are mostly very old and have comorbidities. And besides, 150 thousand people die every day. Death is a part of life. It's true that people die before their time, but on average perhaps a few months, not years, and certainly not 10 years. The only thing that really matters in all this, is that we prevent a collapse of our health care systems, and so we need to do as much as we can, but we must not be afraid, because we cannot afford to be in lockdown much longer.'

The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

I hope that Sweden will be (relatively) successful, that warmer temperatures do turn out to reduce the spread of the virus, and that ending lockdowns doesn't lead to new exponential rises (with everyone becoming paralysed, staring at stats). This will buy time to build out extra hospital capacity and train personnel, to deal with the next waves, as with influenza. And then I hope that some of the lessons this crisis is teaching us, will come through.

Neven,

I agree on collapse; and this virus has the potentially to result in a large-scale collapse.

This virus is oddly the only thing that has managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While it's comforting to know that for a short while, we lowered CO2 output, the long term impacts are dangerous.

Overpopulation, and positive-feedback loops, combined with a paranoid and disillusioned populace will not bode well.

Positive feedback loops alone would have collapsed society, now there's an added element of chaos.

The ignorant masses may not cope very well with a virus they don't have the education to understand - and politicians constantly pouring mixed messages into their fragile mindsets.

And one only need go back to the “Club of Rome” World model for climate change to see this predicted in general terms.

One of the end results of not controlling human growth and behavior resulting in massive climate change is the setting of conditions that lead ultimately and inevitably to pandemic diseases, wars, famine, pestilence, mass migration, and collapse. They were right again.

If you look at the standard run of the original model, and specifically at the downturn of industrial output per capital, we are right on schedule. 

https://logiclogiclogic.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/img_4953-2020.jpg

Sam
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 08:44:33 PM by Sam »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5568 on: April 16, 2020, 08:37:27 PM »
More and more credible sources pointing to the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus/Wuhan pneumonia/Chinese virus to the Wuhan Laboratory:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223779/Coronavirus-originated-bungled-experiments-Wuhan-lab-bombshell-report-claims.html

I've been pointing out this virus came from a lab for weeks, and now we're getting closer and closer to getting that info confirmed.

This is just one more instance of the right wing nuts wanting someone to blame, preferably the Chinese, preferably communism.

There is no truth to it. There never was. This is a natural variation of a virus from nature jumping to humans from animals in a high contact zone, hybridizing with a human virus to gain capability. This happens frequently. This happens more often the higher the population density and the higher the contact rate with the wild.

This is not in any way surprising. It is and was entirely expected. It was so expected that the Chinese focused two large research groups on this very virus family AND began construction of a bio lab to study these viruses - the very lab the right wing nuts want to blame for creating it.

This is not (99+% likelihood) in any way associated with human meddling with this virus. This is nature at work weeding the herd.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5569 on: April 16, 2020, 08:52:58 PM »
Via Richard Betts:

https://twitter.com/richardabetts/status/1250806644147093510

Quote
I'm devastated to hear of the death [from COVID-19] of Sir John Houghton, former Chief Executive of the Met Office who set up the Hadley Centre & was instrumental in founding the IPCC.

RIP
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5570 on: April 16, 2020, 09:01:01 PM »
Sam, this may be too philosophical a question for this thread, but given your view of the threat this virus poses, how are you viewing the rest of your time on this planet? How have you integrated your assessment into your goals, dreams, aspirations, hopes for your kids (if you have any), etc.?

Because if you are right, I am at a loss for how to do that.  Feel free to PM me or perhaps there's a more appropriate thread for this discussion.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5571 on: April 16, 2020, 09:10:47 PM »
I'm devastated to hear of the death [from COVID-19] of Sir John Houghton, former Chief Executive of the Met Office who set up the Hadley Centre & was instrumental in founding the IPCC.


Without the early work of people like him, there probably wouldn't be an ASIF. We would be clueless about what's in store for us.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5572 on: April 16, 2020, 09:36:34 PM »
NIH Study Validates Decontamination Methods for Reuse of N95 Respirators
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-nih-validates-decontamination-methods-reuse.html

The study investigators tested the decontamination of small sections of N95 filter fabric that had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Decontamination methods tested included vaporized hydrogen peroxide (VHP), 70-degree Celsius dry heat, ultraviolet light, and 70% ethanol spray.

All four methods eliminated detectable viable virus from the N95 fabric test samples. The investigators then treated fully intact, clean respirators with the same decontamination methods to test their reuse durability.

The scientists found that ethanol spray damaged the integrity of the respirator's fit and seal after two decontamination sessions and therefore do not recommend it for decontaminating N95 respirators. UV and heat-treated respirators began showing fit and seal problems after three decontaminations—suggesting these respirators potentially could be re-used twice. The VHP-treated masks experienced no failures, suggesting they potentially could be re-used three times.

The authors concluded that VHP was the most effective decontamination method, because no virus could be detected after only a 10-minute treatment. UV and dry heat were acceptable decontamination procedures as long as the methods are applied for at least 60 minutes. The authors urge anyone decontaminating an N95 respirator to check the fit and seal over the face before each re-use.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062018

---------------------------

AJR Review of COVID-19 Studies Cautions Against Chest CT for Coronavirus Diagnosis
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-ajr-covid-cautions-chest-ct.html

To date, the radiology literature on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has consisted of limited retrospective studies that do not substantiate the use of CT as a diagnostic test for COVID-19, according to an open-access Clinical Perspective article in the American Journal of Roentgenology (AJR).

http://dx.doi.org/10.2214/AJR.20.23202
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5573 on: April 16, 2020, 09:46:15 PM »
A study of Dutch blood donors has found that around 3 percent have developed antibodies against the new coronavirus, health authorities have said, an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have already had the disease.
"This study shows that about 3 percent of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus," Van Dissel said. "You can calculate from that, it's several hundred thousand people" in a country of 17 million.

The RIVM has previously said that an immunity level of about 60% is required for herd immunity to take effect.

There are 28,158 confirmed coronavirus cases in the Netherlands, but only the very ill and healthcare workers are currently being tested.
Back of the envelope calculation gives 3% x 17M = 500k true infections count in the Netherlands. Official death count is 3134 but true death count probably around 5000-6000 based on total mortality. (If anyone can provide actual mortality data it would be better...).

Yes, https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland gives a factor of 2.




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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5574 on: April 16, 2020, 09:48:43 PM »
Sam, this may be too philosophical a question for this thread, but given your view of the threat this virus poses, how are you viewing the rest of your time on this planet? How have you integrated your assessment into your goals, dreams, aspirations, hopes for your kids (if you have any), etc.?

Because if you are right, I am at a loss for how to do that.  Feel free to PM me or perhaps there's a more appropriate thread for this discussion.

For a number of reasons I elected not to have kids when I was 17. That was primarily because of a genetic linked issue that made me vulnerable to a severe form of arthritis. That caused me horrible problems for 30 years until contrary to medical wisdom I cured it. Secondarily, all the way back then in the early 1970s I saw the general outline of this coming. Not this specific virus, but climate change, pollution, wars, famine, pestilence, mass migration. That was also when the Club of Rome report came out.

So dnem, your question about how it impacts my goals and my life are in no way theoretical. They have governed my life from about age 10 onward. Everything in my life has been changed by understanding what was happening, why it was happening, where we were and are headed, and all the myriad factors that could change that.

I spent much of my life trying to change that course to no avail. I spent another large part of my life working on systems and designs. And I spent a lot of time doing emergency response and preparedness. In the course of that I identified and drove resolution of several Chernobyl scale disasters before they could become catastrophes. My name will never be associated with those. My name will never be broadly known. Solving those issues required (yes, required) working quietly behind the scenes. It was the only way to avoid the resistance and blowback that would prevent resolving the issues. Recognition is not and never has been a driver for me, nor for many of those I worked with through those years. We built things. We fixed things. We made things work well. We protected people. We were guardians and shepherds. The results are and were our reward.

I struggle with how to even suggest a solution for you to consider. I made my choices half a century ago. I lived them. Now I mourn the consequences of the things I/we could not fix.

But too I realize just as the father of the green revolution did - that all we did was to buy time for others to actually fix the structural problems. But “they” either never came along, or were not interested in solving the problems. So by buying time, we allowed the conditions to get worse before the inevitable collapse(s) arrived. We collectively made the system more able to support more people for longer, thereby making the descent into collapse harsher and faster.

Had the green revolution not occurred, population collapse and limitations would have happened decades ago. That may well have spread out the rate of change over timeframes that would have allowed civilization to come to grips with its own impacts and changed our behavior in ways that prevented catastrophic climate change. That is doubtful. The path appears to have been inevitable. The rate of changes would have been less. The hardships would have come sooner.

For me personally, I am at peace. I know my place in the universe and the grand scheme. I have the confidence of my own experiences and beliefs (knowing that that is what they are, and testing them constantly). I have lived a long and wonderful life with glorious friends and loves. All will be well.

I do not believe this marks the end even for man, though it may if we are stupid.  And a lot of mankind is truly stupid. Recent events have made that clear. It is going to be a very rough transition for the next several centuries to several millennia.

I joked with my father once when I was about 10. We were talking about these same questions, yes - all the way back in the 1960s. And he asked as you did. I replied flippantly that hey, I wasn’t around for the beginning, it might be nice to be around for the end. That off hand reply has haunted me my whole life. I am only glad that he did not live to see this.

For myself, I have a nice home. I planted a mini orchard a decade ago. It produces more fruit than I can deal with. I can garden and raise enough food for myself and friends. My health is good. So long as all that holds true, I mostly have sanctuary from this storm. In many ways this has not directly touched me. Indirectly it is devastating, as younger friends, children of friends and others suffer. I saw this coming and prepared. Most people did not. Most of them did not. They made other choices, choices that left them vulnerable, despite my protestations and cautions. Being safe while others aren’t when I spent a lifetime protecting others is wane comfort.

But then too, this forces people to face the harsh realities of life and the world. I do not mean the world as they perceived it or desired it to be, but the actual world as it really is. This is the world of scary childhood Fairy tales, where wolves and bears eat children who stray into the woods, and where goblins and monsters reside.

Truly coming face to face with reality and mortality is I think a very good thing. It is a hard and harsh thing. It is often an unwelcome thing. But it is ultimately good. Many will not survive that encounter. Many more will be grievously injured by it. Society though will be made the better for it.

I don’t know that I answered your question. But then I am still not sure I actually have an answer, even for myself. I am still searching. And I will still be searching until the day I die.

Sam



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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5575 on: April 16, 2020, 10:15:26 PM »
Thanks Sam (and apologies for any unwanted diversion of this thread).

I too have come to grips with the Club of Rome view, but have only come to that fairly recently - well after having a kid (he's 17). Obviously that changes a lot, but all-in-all I am at peace with humanity's likely trajectory, as is my kid, more or less.  He's writing his 20th century history term paper on the failings of the Green Revolution! We do our best to live lightly and work in various positive ways.

Meanwhile, as I write this there's an economist on NPR going on about how's she's confident that we will return to normal after we "get past this." Sigh.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5576 on: April 16, 2020, 11:26:50 PM »

I know you like the Sweden example ('they are going to die anyways'). Well fuck that model.


Yeah the Sweden model again.

This picture illustrates just how reckless the Swedish strategy is. If the government had any sense they would immediately close down the Stockholm subway system. Shocking picture of peak rush hour this morning at 8:20 AM, look at all those people spreading corona virus, working hard on that herd immunity.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5577 on: April 16, 2020, 11:32:05 PM »
The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

Neven,

This is a basic and common error. Our society is conditioned to think in terms that put commerce as primary. It isn’t. It is essential. It is not primary.

I think you are missing Nevens point.

Following is my reading but if you read what he wrote on Lessons form Covid-19 it is not about commerce being important. See post 182 there.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5578 on: April 16, 2020, 11:41:43 PM »
I agree on collapse; and this virus has the potentially to result in a large-scale collapse.

If there is a collapse, it will be more likely caused by the psychological aspects of the crisis (fear and panic) than because of the disease itself. I think there is sufficient data for that now. I'm not downplaying the severity of the disease - even though I believe other factors are helping it have a disproportionate impact - but 1-2% of populations dying, will not lead to collapse. Lots of grief and other problems, yes, but not collapse.

BTW, the video you posted by that guy who stated the virus came from the Wuhan lab, was surprisingly interesting, because he explained the Chinese perspective and the many questions people are asking there. But posting stuff from the Daily Mail, quoting Pompeo and Trump... That's just very weak sauce.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5579 on: April 16, 2020, 11:48:12 PM »
Dutch Study Suggests 3 Percent of Population May Have Antibodies
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-bring-asia-growth-standstill-live-updates-200415230825462.html

There was a similar antibody study in Finland:

https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/number-of-people-with-coronavirus-infections-may-be-dozens-of-times-higher-than-the-number-of-confirmed-cases

The Finnish study has a small sample size, but the preliminary results are in line with studies in other countries.  For the samples taken in the last week of March and first week of April, less than 1% of them had antibodies.  But for the samples taken in the second week of April,  3.4% of them had antibodies.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5580 on: April 16, 2020, 11:52:29 PM »
The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

Neven,

This is a basic and common error. Our society is conditioned to think in terms that put commerce as primary. It isn’t. It is essential. It is not primary.

I think you are missing Nevens point.

Following is my reading but if you read what he wrote on Lessons form Covid-19 it is not about commerce being important. See post 182 there.

I don't think so. In #182 of Lessons Learned Never argues about the concentration of wealth and commerce. I agree with all of that. Where I have difficulty is with two points from the post #5554 in this thread.

A long ride will probably mean civilisational collapse, as fear and insecurity, incessantly pumped up by the media, will prevent people from being the consumers they were conditioned to be. Consumerism is a central pillar of our current global system. It could transition to something more resilient (if the lessons of this crisis are heeded), but it will take years, if not decades. It will collapse if everyone's eyes are glued to statistics (with no context), and fear and panic are used for ratings and to make sure people obey the installed measures.

The angle of the narrative will have to change, something along the lines of: 'Yes, this is a terrible new disease, but there are many of those. People are dying, but they are mostly very old and have comorbidities. And besides, 150 thousand people die every day. Death is a part of life. It's true that people die before their time, but on average perhaps a few months, not years, and certainly not 10 years. The only thing that really matters in all this, is that we prevent a collapse of our health care systems, and so we need to do as much as we can, but we must not be afraid, because we cannot afford to be in lockdown much longer.'

The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

My discussion and post go to the two comments in bold above.

Point 1. ..."we cannot afford lockdown much longer."

We cannot afford not to extend lockdown longer. It is fatal to business as well as to individuals to restart soon. Doing that causes the disease to come back and spread. That then either extends the lockdown (bad), or increases the deaths (worse) AND extends the lockdown (much worse). We must focus on the primary problem - the virus and its spread - not the secondary, tertiary and subsidiary problems. Those are important. But they are ONLY solved if we solve the first problem first.

I agree that we must make the time in lockdown as short as we can. I am firmly of the belief this has to be by making it more effective and enforced, not by lifting it. That ultimately only extends it.

Addenda: In the US the Congress did a bare minimum job of trying to help small businesses and workers. That is more notable in its failing than its success. Government/societal support for workers and small businesses is vital to their welfare and survival. That also means full healthcare without worries, something we entirely lack in the US. No one should be caught as Neven has been, needing to care for his business(es) and his workers, and having that compete with caring for himself, family, society at large, and all the rest. This is another aspect that most governments are woefully failing at.

Point 2. "The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself."

This is hugely destructive. We and our leaders can do many things to ameliorate that. Ending the quarantine prematurely isn't one of them. See point 1.

Addenda 2: What we desperately need is intelligent compassionate leaders who can and will reach out to the public to explain, as Franklin Roosevelt did with his fireside chats, precisely what is happening, what the government is doing to help, what people can do for themselves and others, and that calls on the better nature’s of everyone to work together to solve this - not just as a nation, states, communities and individuals, but also as a world- United. Instead we in the US have a conman, thief, liar, narcissist, bully who gathers everyone around to watch him beat up his perceived enemies.

Neven,

My apologies for speaking about you in the third person. I agree with the vast majority of what you have said here. It is these two points that cause me great heartburn.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 12:29:50 AM by Sam »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5581 on: April 16, 2020, 11:57:02 PM »
I don't give a damn about your stores and the economy, I want the aforementioned persons to survive, and hopefully, something called Modern Medicine can bring something in weeks/months/one year so my loved ones survive.

I don't particularly care about my (father's) stores, as I don't need the money. But my employees are going to be in real trouble if they lose their jobs, having to provide for older parents and adult children. And I feel responsible for that.

I wrote about this earlier to express how a personal situation can influence/cloud your opinions. I've been preparing for this kind of stuff for over 10 years now, and if I hadn't inherited my father's business, I'd probably either be excited about it (as I was when the Great Recession hit a decade ago), or resigned like Sam, I don't know. But my thinking wouldn't go where it is going now, because of a different perspective.

I'm sorry that you fear for your loved ones, but I think it is also quite legitimate to fear for the consequences of a lockdown that is prolonged for too long. Many people will have a drastically shortened life because of it.

Quote
I know you like the Sweden example ('they are going to die anyways'). Well fuck that model.

You are rooting for Sweden to fail? That's irrational.

Quote
You have gone from green activist to ruined Monopoly player? I don't give a damn. And so many in this world don't give a damn about you. People just want them to go through and to have their loved ones through.

That's an understandable emotion, but it's also a dangerous emotion, because it can lead to irrational decisions at best, and be fully exploited at worst.

It sucks that this virus suddenly appeared, as there already are enough horrible diseases to go around. Things like the diabetes epidemic, the cancer epidemic, the obesity epidemic, and so on. I know that Modern Medicine has found ways to appease people's fear of death, but death is a part of life. If I die from COVID-19 tomorrow, or next month, or next year, so be it. And nobody will care about me, and I don't expect them to. If I don't die from COVID-19, I will die from something else. And so will every human being on this Earth. To be born is worse, as the Bible says.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5582 on: April 17, 2020, 12:30:18 AM »
We cannot afford not to extend lockdown longer. It is fatal to business as well as to individuals to restart soon. Doing that causes the disease to come back and spread. That then either extends the lockdown (bad), or increases the deaths (worse) AND extends the lockdown (much worse). We must focus on the primary problem - the virus and its spread - not the secondary, tertiary and subsidiary problems. Those are important. But they are ONLY solved if we solve the first problem first.

I personally don't believe there is any type of lockdown that can be enforced that will eradicate the virus. Maybe in a place like China, but not on a global scale. After weeks of lockdown, there is now some talk here and there of herd immunity in the single digit percentages (well below 5%). So, all lockdown does, is buy time.

But when you buy something, there is obviously a cost, and at some point the cost becomes larger than what you're getting. In other words, besides lockdowns most likely not being able to eradicate the virus, they also have a breaking point. They simply cannot last too long, because 1) they may cause more damage than the virus will and 2) cascading effects could cause civilisational collapse.

So far, the desired perception has been based on fear, desired by the media for ratings, and desired by governments to make sure people comply. But if lockdowns don't solve the problem, and you cannot risk those cascading effects to civilisational collapse either, you have to move away from fear.

Because the psychological effect of that fear, is that it breeds insecurity and paralysis,which only increases the risk of cascading effects, whether there are lockdowns or not! For the simple reason that people will not buy the goods and services that make the system work (more or less).

I'm very unhappy with the system, I hate consumerism and want it to stop, I'm as radical as they come in this respect, but I prefer to see a gradual transition, rather than a house of cards going up in flames. Because, just as Gandul, I fear for loved ones.

If it needs to happen, so be it, but rather not because everybody is shitting their pants because of the perfect 'invisible enemy'.

Quote
But failure means ultimately infecting about 90% of the population. And that means killing circa 3-9+% of the population in the first wave. And if this virus only provides two year immunity as it appears to, it means killing something like 2-6% in a second wave, and 1-5% in a third wave etc...  Each wave depletes the society of older and vulnerable people, presumably lessening the impact of each wave. But over a decade, this likely sums to 12-15% of the population dying, unless massive controls are put in place, or successful treatments or vaccines are developed. That then might limit the dying to 4% over the decade.

So far, I didn't want to say too much because it's a delicate subject, and there wasn't enough data to say anything really substantive, but I think enough is known now to state that these numbers aren't realistic. I don't believe this virus can cause civilisational collapse just through the amount of people it will kill. But the fear of this 'invisible enemy' might. I could be wrong.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5583 on: April 17, 2020, 12:49:52 AM »
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

Quote
Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

My bold. The big difference from pandemics of the past, climate control.

Ventilation of indoor spaces and surface disinfection are a must.
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Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5584 on: April 17, 2020, 12:57:38 AM »
We cannot afford not to extend lockdown longer. It is fatal to business as well as to individuals to restart soon. Doing that causes the disease to come back and spread. That then either extends the lockdown (bad), or increases the deaths (worse) AND extends the lockdown (much worse). We must focus on the primary problem - the virus and its spread - not the secondary, tertiary and subsidiary problems. Those are important. But they are ONLY solved if we solve the first problem first.

I personally don't believe there is any type of lockdown that can be enforced that will eradicate the virus. Maybe in a place like China, but not on a global scale. After weeks of lockdown, there is now some talk here and there of herd immunity in the single digit percentages (well below 5%). So, all lockdown does, is buy time.

But when you buy something, there is obviously a cost, and at some point the cost becomes larger than what you're getting. In other words, besides lockdowns most likely not being able to eradicate the virus, they also have a breaking point. They simply cannot last too long, because 1) they may cause more damage than the virus will and 2) cascading effects could cause civilisational collapse.

So far, the desired perception has been based on fear, desired by the media for ratings, and desired by governments to make sure people comply. But if lockdowns don't solve the problem, and you cannot risk those cascading effects to civilisational collapse either, you have to move away from fear.

Because the psychological effect of that fear, is that it breeds insecurity and paralysis,which only increases the risk of cascading effects, whether there are lockdowns or not! For the simple reason that people will not buy the goods and services that make the system work (more or less).

I'm very unhappy with the system, I hate consumerism and want it to stop, I'm as radical as they come in this respect, but I prefer to see a gradual transition, rather than a house of cards going up in flames. Because, just as Gandul, I fear for loved ones.

If it needs to happen, so be it, but rather not because everybody is shitting their pants because of the perfect 'invisible enemy'.

Quote
But failure means ultimately infecting about 90% of the population. And that means killing circa 3-9+% of the population in the first wave. And if this virus only provides two year immunity as it appears to, it means killing something like 2-6% in a second wave, and 1-5% in a third wave etc...  Each wave depletes the society of older and vulnerable people, presumably lessening the impact of each wave. But over a decade, this likely sums to 12-15% of the population dying, unless massive controls are put in place, or successful treatments or vaccines are developed. That then might limit the dying to 4% over the decade.

So far, I didn't want to say too much because it's a delicate subject, and there wasn't enough data to say anything really substantive, but I think enough is known now to state that these numbers aren't realistic. I don't believe this virus can cause civilisational collapse just through the amount of people it will kill. But the fear of this 'invisible enemy' might. I could be wrong.

Neven,

I sincerely hope you are right.

Sam

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5585 on: April 17, 2020, 02:20:55 AM »
This is what worries me:

When the dust settles, there's going to be a lot of populist ranting going on, whipped up by the usual suspects. At the moment, reporting is all about the numbers, which look scary big. Later, though, people will be looking at percentages:
"Less than one person in a hundred dead? And mostly sick, or old, or both, who'd likely have died soon anyway! Is this what's cost me my job, and my kids their jobs, wrecked our finances? Is this what's caused the biggest recession in a century?"

If the lockdown works,  it's going to happen. Trump and his supporters, and others like him all over the world, are going to make hay. You can't counter a populist rant by saying how much worse things could have been.

I hope we can keep deaths below 1%, but if we manage it, we'll have to be ready with some fast answers for all the dickheads out there.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5586 on: April 17, 2020, 03:23:24 AM »
Quote from: greylib
... When the dust settles, there's going to be a lot of populist ranting going on, whipped up by the usual suspects   

They're not waiting for the dust to settle ...

Protests Against US Stay-at-Home Orders Gain Support From Rightwing Figures
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/michigan-protest-coronavirus-rightwing-support

Demonstrations against coronavirus measures spread across US as Fox News, Limbaugh and others champion conservative effort

The Michigan Conservative Committee organized a rally, dubbed “Operation Gridlock”, outside Michigan’s state capitol on Wednesday, demanding that the governor, Gretchen Whitmer, lift restrictions designed to limit the spread of coronavirus. Thousands of people drove to Lansing, waving Donald Trump 2020 campaign signs chanting “lock her up”, and flouting social distancing restrictions.

Demonstrations against coronavirus measures are spreading across the US, with people holding rallies in North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky and Ohio in recent days. A protest is planned in Virginia on Thursday, while a Texas rally, pushed by a host on the rightwing conspiracy theory website Infowars, is set to target the state capitol in Austin on Saturday.

Despite health officials stressing the importance of stay-at-home measures, prominent figures on the right, including Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and rightwing website the Gateway Pundit have begun to champion the conservative effort.

-----------------------------

Michigan Conservatives ‘Not Concerned’ About COVID-19 Block Ambulance During Protest Against Social Distancing
https://www.thedailybeast.com/michigan-conservatives-not-concerned-about-covid-19-block-ambulance-during-protest-against-social-distancing

Hundreds of opponents of Michigan’s social distancing measures rallied in their cars in the state capital on Wednesday, snarling traffic and even blocking a hospital entrance in a protest against an executive order intended to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus in the state.

“The cars were blocking one of our hospitals, so an ambulance literally wasn’t able to get into the bay for ten minutes,” said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whose statewide stay-at-home order provoked the ire of many right-wingers and Trump supporters.

... One Whitmer adviser likened the Lansing, Michigan, rally outside the Capitol—dubbed “Operation Gridlock” on a Facebook invitation—to a MAGA rally, noting the preponderance of signs likening Whitmer to a Nazi, as well as semiautomatic rifles, Confederate battle flags, and in at least one case, a Confederate battle flag emblazoned with the image of a semiautomatic rifle. (Michigan, of course, was a Union state.)

Similar orders—and, in all likelihood, similar levels of stir-craziness—have sparked several protest movements in other states across the country as residents demand that governors “reopen” their states, public safety be damned.

“When it’s my time to go, God’s going to call me home,” said Ashley Smith, cofounder of “ReopenNC,” a conservative group which seeks the easing of social restrictions in North Carolina. “I think that to live is inherently to take risks. I’m not concerned about this virus any more than I am about the flu.”

“It was essentially a political rally,” Whitmer said on MSNBC on Wednesday night, one that “flies in the face of all of the science, all of the best practices, and the stay-at-home order that was issued.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-loyalists-and-allies-urge-defiance-of-coronavirus-safety-measures

In March, President Donald Trump criticized Whitmer—whom he called “the young… a woman governor”—and tweeted that while “I love Michigan… your Governor, Gretchen ‘Half’ Whitmer is way in over her head, she doesn't have a clue. Likes blaming everyone for her own ineptitude! #MAGA”
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 04:01:32 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5588 on: April 17, 2020, 05:14:55 AM »
Thanks nanning  :)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5589 on: April 17, 2020, 06:50:59 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5590 on: April 17, 2020, 07:34:58 AM »
Wuhan Death Toll Rises 50%
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/china-economy-shrinks-record-wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-rises-50-percent

The Chinese city of Wuhan has raised its number of coronavirus fatalities by 1,290 to 3,869, most of China’s total. That brings the total fatalities in China to at least 4,642. It also revised up its number of confirmed cases by 325 to 50,333, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Wuhan’s prevention and control taskforce have revised the death toll in Wuhan upwards by 50%, from 2,579 to 3,869. The updated figure comes after weeks of scepticism about the reported death toll, as other countries have seen fatalities reach more than 10,000.

The agency said reasons for the change included adding the number of patients unable to reach hospitals, late, mistaken or double reporting, as well as difficulty linking information reported from private hospitals, temporary hospitals and other medical institutions that handled patients.

https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_7014798

The overall accuracy of China's coronavirus data has been questioned both abroad and by the country’s own citizens.

----------------------------------

Guatemala: 44 Deportees from US Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-35000-live-updates-200416234342434.html

US flights deporting migrants from Guatemala have been temporarily suspended after a recent flight carried migrants who tested positive for the coronavirus. Out of the 76 people on the Monday flight, 44 were reported to have tested positive

---------------------------------

Close to two-thirds of Americans think that President Trump's actions to deal with the threat of coronavirus were too slow, according to a new poll conducted by the Pew Research Center. The survey was conducted between April 7 and April 12, using a sample of 4,917 American adults.

While 65% felt that the initial response was too slow, 52% felt that his comments on the pandemic are aimed at making it look better than it really is. Close to 40% felt that his representation of the crisis is accurate and 8% said that Trump is making the situation seem worse than it is.



-----------------------------

Protests Erupt Along Mexican Border After Deaths at Honeywell, Lear
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21Y35X

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico (Reuters) - A spate of suspected coronavirus deaths among workers for U.S. companies operating along the border in Mexico has triggered multiple protests in recent days, highlighting friction over which factories should remain open in the pandemic.

On Thursday, dozens of protesters demanded a Honeywell assembly plant in Ciudad Juarez be closed to prevent the spread of the virus after a colleague died.

The company told Reuters one of the plant's workers died this month after being sent to self-quarantine and receive medical attention.

Car seat maker Lear confirmed "several" of its workers had died in the city this month of respiratory illnesses, while technology company Poly, also known as Plantronics, told Reuters two workers in Tijuana died this week of unknown causes. Protesting workers in Tijuana said the deaths were related to the coronavirus.

Similar protests calling for safe conditions or shutdowns with full pay took place outside factories in border cities Mexicali, Matamoros and Reynosa in recent days after the Mexican government ordered non-essential industries to suspend operations.

"We want them to respect the quarantine," said Mario Cesar Gonzalez outside the Honeywell factory, which he said makes smoke alarms. "The manager said that we are essential workers. I don't think an alarm is essential."

----------------------------

Hundreds of garment workers in Bangladesh took to the streets to demand unpaid wages after factories suspended operations over coronavirus-related lockdowns across the world. Protests were staged in parts of Dhaka while workers also blocked a highway outside the Bangladeshi capital.

Many protesters blame international brands like Wal-Mart, H&M and Marks & Spencer for canceling orders worth $3.2 billion, which directly affect the 2.26 million workers in the industry.

Notably, the textile industry accounts for close to 85% of Bangladesh’s $40 billion in annual exports.

------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5591 on: April 17, 2020, 08:46:07 AM »
Remdesivir trial leak:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/?mod=article_inline

Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5592 on: April 17, 2020, 09:48:38 AM »
Wuhan Death Toll Rises 50%
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/china-economy-shrinks-record-wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-rises-50-percent

The Chinese city of Wuhan has raised its number of coronavirus fatalities by 1,290 to 3,869, most of China’s total. That brings the total fatalities in China to at least 4,642. It also revised up its number of confirmed cases by 325 to 50,333, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Wuhan’s prevention and control taskforce have revised the death toll in Wuhan upwards by 50%, from 2,579 to 3,869. The updated figure comes after weeks of scepticism about the reported death toll, as other countries have seen fatalities reach more than 10,000.

The agency said reasons for the change included adding the number of patients unable to reach hospitals, late, mistaken or double reporting, as well as difficulty linking information reported from private hospitals, temporary hospitals and other medical institutions that handled patients.

https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_7014798

The overall accuracy of China's coronavirus data has been questioned both abroad and by the country’s own citizens.

----------------------------------

Guatemala: 44 Deportees from US Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-35000-live-updates-200416234342434.html

US flights deporting migrants from Guatemala have been temporarily suspended after a recent flight carried migrants who tested positive for the coronavirus. Out of the 76 people on the Monday flight, 44 were reported to have tested positive

---------------------------------

Close to two-thirds of Americans think that President Trump's actions to deal with the threat of coronavirus were too slow, according to a new poll conducted by the Pew Research Center. The survey was conducted between April 7 and April 12, using a sample of 4,917 American adults.

While 65% felt that the initial response was too slow, 52% felt that his comments on the pandemic are aimed at making it look better than it really is. Close to 40% felt that his representation of the crisis is accurate and 8% said that Trump is making the situation seem worse than it is.



-----------------------------

Protests Erupt Along Mexican Border After Deaths at Honeywell, Lear
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21Y35X

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico (Reuters) - A spate of suspected coronavirus deaths among workers for U.S. companies operating along the border in Mexico has triggered multiple protests in recent days, highlighting friction over which factories should remain open in the pandemic.

On Thursday, dozens of protesters demanded a Honeywell assembly plant in Ciudad Juarez be closed to prevent the spread of the virus after a colleague died.

The company told Reuters one of the plant's workers died this month after being sent to self-quarantine and receive medical attention.

Car seat maker Lear confirmed "several" of its workers had died in the city this month of respiratory illnesses, while technology company Poly, also known as Plantronics, told Reuters two workers in Tijuana died this week of unknown causes. Protesting workers in Tijuana said the deaths were related to the coronavirus.

Similar protests calling for safe conditions or shutdowns with full pay took place outside factories in border cities Mexicali, Matamoros and Reynosa in recent days after the Mexican government ordered non-essential industries to suspend operations.

"We want them to respect the quarantine," said Mario Cesar Gonzalez outside the Honeywell factory, which he said makes smoke alarms. "The manager said that we are essential workers. I don't think an alarm is essential."

----------------------------

Hundreds of garment workers in Bangladesh took to the streets to demand unpaid wages after factories suspended operations over coronavirus-related lockdowns across the world. Protests were staged in parts of Dhaka while workers also blocked a highway outside the Bangladeshi capital.

Many protesters blame international brands like Wal-Mart, H&M and Marks & Spencer for canceling orders worth $3.2 billion, which directly affect the 2.26 million workers in the industry.

Notably, the textile industry accounts for close to 85% of Bangladesh’s $40 billion in annual exports.

------------------------------

That makes the CFR for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in China a terrifying 9.22% in line with Italy.

It also means that SARS-CoV-2 is indistinguishable in lethality from SARS-CoV-1, which had a global CFR of 9.6%.

The symptomology of the two viruses is nearly identical. The transmission mode is nearly identical as well, though SARS-2 is more infective than SARS-1.

Early on several virologists and epidemiologists kept repeating the mantra that this isn’t SARS. They were right, though not in the way the meant or intended. This is worse.

We have to hope that a single vaccine will be effective for both of these viruses and their cousins.

The world had its first warning in 2002 with SARS-1. The world then had a terrifying second, third and fourth warning with MERS in 2012, 2014 and 2015 with its even more terrifying 39% CFR.

Then the final warning came in late 2019 when SARS-2 was analyzed. The Chinese paid attention. Not many others did. The US and EU decidedly did not. Worse, politicians leading nations all over the world, most especially in the US showed just how incompetent incompetent can be. They - he - made it all vastly worse.

Society as we have known it must now change in dramatic ways. Yet many among us still want to hope and believe that somehow we can end this quickly. We cannot. Ending this will be difficult, painful and costly.

One of those costs is a world and societies forever changed. We cannot go back any longer. The world is now a different place.

My estimates on ultimate fatality rates are now in line with the data. It just took time for the data to catch up. This is not surprising.

As a terrible added note: With the immense loss of sulfate aerosols and fine particulate, we now get to test the climate models. Based on their projections about magnitudes of impacts, this should be a banner year for melting the Arctic ice. By years end we will have the massive Australian fires, COVID-19, the massive melting of the arctic, the impeachment and multiple failures of Donald Trump, and the world financial collapse into the second Great Depression all competing fir story of the year. 2020 has been one hell of a year.

In all of my years of dealing with emergencies and catastrophes, denial was one of the first things to rise to the fore. In those years I learned several phrases that served me well. I did not like it. It served none the less.  “Wait for it .......!”    .... “there it is.” .... “Ok, now“ ....

That also went hand in hand with a life lesson my father taught me in such events ... when to step behind the proverbial nearest largest solid structural column, hold on to my head, ears & ass, close my eyes, and wait ...  for the remnants of the exploding building to pass by on either side - in the relative safety of the shadow of the column. .... “this is going to leave a mark.”

And the last one... “Are you ok?“ ... “Well, I’m not dead yet.”

Sam
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 10:16:24 AM by Sam »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5593 on: April 17, 2020, 10:35:37 AM »
This is what worries me:

When the dust settles, there's going to be a lot of populist ranting going on, whipped up by the usual suspects. At the moment, reporting is all about the numbers, which look scary big. Later, though, people will be looking at percentages:
"Less than one person in a hundred dead? And mostly sick, or old, or both, who'd likely have died soon anyway! Is this what's cost me my job, and my kids their jobs, wrecked our finances? Is this what's caused the biggest recession in a century?"

People won't be just looking at percentages, but also comparing them to initial projections. This is another reason the narrative needs to change, where the excessive focus on deaths needs to switch to something else: Making sure hospitals can handle the waves. It is really important that media and governments move away from the fear, because that fear paralyzes, it's bad for decision-making and it's easy to exploit by both neoliberal and fake populist forces.

Ideally, there will also be more talk about the causes of COVID-19 and how it could have such a massive impact, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5594 on: April 17, 2020, 10:52:00 AM »
That makes the CFR for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in China a terrifying 9.22% in line with Italy.

It also means that SARS-CoV-2 is indistinguishable in lethality from SARS-CoV-1, which had a global CFR of 9.6%.

China and Italy are not the world. CFR doesn't tell us much.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5595 on: April 17, 2020, 11:49:17 AM »

China and Italy are not the world. CFR doesn't tell us much.

Those are bizarre assertions.  Do we expect viral behavior to change across borders?  The F in CFR is fatalities.  Deaths do tell us a lot about how serious an epidemic is.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5596 on: April 17, 2020, 12:23:46 PM »

China and Italy are not the world. CFR doesn't tell us much.

Those are bizarre assertions.  Do we expect viral behavior to change across borders?

Of course we do, unless we expect that conditions are the same everywhere (air pollution, general health, health care systems, initial response).

Quote
The F in CFR is fatalities.  Deaths do tell us a lot about how serious an epidemic is.

The C in CFR is cases, and they can be defined and measured in various ways, which means that CFR is very open to interpretation, especially during early stages.

Deaths tell us something, but we also know that everybody dies (around 150K people globally every day). What we want to know, is how much people's lives are shortened. And for that we need to know who is dying.

The problem with overly focusing on death, death, death, is that it breeds fear, fear, fear. The focus needs to be on hospital capacity, and thus on number of patients. The narrative needs to switch from fear to hope, from insecurity to confidence. This is up to politicians and the media. The panic and fear was fine to get people to react and comply quickly. Now something else is needed.
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RichardStamper

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5597 on: April 17, 2020, 12:29:50 PM »
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

Quote
Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

My bold. The big difference from pandemics of the past, climate control.

Ventilation of indoor spaces and surface disinfection are a must.

This is significant and will mean that there are likely to be seasonal impacts on transmission, not necessarily because the virus is inherently affected much by temperature but because human behaviour is, so that transmission will be higher in a region in the absence of distancing measures when the weather there encourages people to spend more time indoors.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5598 on: April 17, 2020, 12:57:33 PM »
I was born in Yorkshire. My Grandad survived being gassed in WW1 and became a great Leeds United supporter:

https://twitter.com/LUFCHD/status/1251096923039244289

Norman "Bites yer legs" Hunter has succumbed to COVID-19

RIP Norman
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5599 on: April 17, 2020, 01:13:33 PM »
Speaking of deaths, yesterday there was an interesting new graphic on the Austrian news. It seems they now differentiate between 'died from COVID-19' and 'died with COVID-19'. The former is 12.4% lower than the latter. Of course, this all depends on how death is assigned, which is difficult to do, as so many of the deceased in Austria had comorbidities. Either way, the main question is: by how much were people's lives shortened?
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