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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341398 times)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5600 on: April 17, 2020, 01:38:40 PM »
Neven I'm reposting this because living in Austria is natural to feel this is an overreaction.  If successful, it will look like an overreaction. Austria has been extremely successful.

This success does not come from the disease sparing Austria or luck. This success comes from the early efforts of the Austrian people.


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5601 on: April 17, 2020, 01:46:02 PM »
Harpy, this is for you. And anyone sharing zerohedge, epoch times links.

Bannon, Tom Cotton, Bill Gertz & Anti-China Neocon Propaganda In the Wake of COVID19 (Part 1 of 2) >> https://overcast.fm/+BMjFjcqVw

The Committee on the Present Danger: China, As Dangerous as PNAC, Pandemic Neocons (Part 2 of 2) >> https://overcast.fm/+BMjEhW_5k

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5602 on: April 17, 2020, 01:46:33 PM »
The over-reaction was fine, I've said it before. But now there is more data, and efforts must be made to reduce the over-reaction. Because the narrative of death, fear and panic is very dangerous on a psychological level.

Mind you, there is a difference between Europe and the US, given the difference in timing. Never mind the fact that the US is a third world banana republic which is facing much larger problems than the clown in the White House.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5603 on: April 17, 2020, 01:50:41 PM »
Now something else is needed.

Did I ever mention that Kasia and I have been known to claim to be surrealist performance artists?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1251080829440266240
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5604 on: April 17, 2020, 02:28:00 PM »
The over-reaction was fine, I've said it before. But now there is more data, and efforts must be made to reduce the over-reaction.

 I think efforts should be made to decrease what doesn't work and increase what does work.

Better social distancing, not necessarily more social distancing.
Better masks and masking techniques, not strict requirements on mask-wearing ( except indoors).
Better, more frequents surface disinfection.
A sampling of towns and businesses for both active infections and antibodies, allowing for more selective quarantines.
Contact tracing teams should be getting ready to ramp up.


Panic is always our enemy, but fear sometimes is our friend.  The difference between panic and fear is that fear leads to the appropriate defensive measures while panic leads to inaction.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5605 on: April 17, 2020, 02:40:05 PM »
A much more thorough list

Informing management of lockdowns and a phased return to normality: a Solution Scan of non-pharmaceutical options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission

https://covid-19.biorisc.com/

Quote
We have identified 275 options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in five key areas: (1) physical isolation, (2) reducing transmission through contaminated items, (3) enhancing cleaning and hygiene, (4) reducing spread through pets, and (5) restricting disease spread between areas. For any particular problem this long list will quickly be winnowed down to a much shorter list of potential options based on relevance and practicality; this bespoke shortlist will be the subject of more detailed consideration.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5606 on: April 17, 2020, 03:19:15 PM »
Trump has been sabotaging the world's response since the beginning of this emergency, and he has to sabotage it even further to save face he will do so. It does not matter how many people die.

He just called for the US to end WHO funding. Right in the middle of a global pandemic.

We are witnessing Trump get away with mass murder for everyone to see. It will not get better.

Yeah, and seems to me that the Swedish authorities copied Trump's policy here.
The effect: Mass murder of our old people sitting in our nursing homes like lame ducks, just waiting to be culled.
And this is due to our so called 'experts' ignorance and our decision makers' lethargy.

"The /Swedish laissez-faire/ strategy has also come under fire from some of the country’s scientists. A group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers on Tuesday criticised the health agency in an op-ed published by Dagens Nyheter newspaper.
“The approach must be changed radically and quickly,” the group wrote. “As the virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants. Everyone who works with the elderly must wear adequate protective equipment. Quarantine the whole family if one member is ill or tests positive. Elected representatives must intervene, there is no other choice.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

Old people with symptoms, or tested positive with mild symptoms, are sent back to their nursing homes, according to what this GP says.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/486065-uk-care-homes-disregard/

"There is also concern about the impact of Covid-19 patients being discharged by hospitals into care homes filled with the frail and elderly in order to free up beds. Questions are being asked about why this is happening, when the Nightingale hospital in Docklands has received only a small number of patients – reported to be just 19 at the weekend – when it has capacity for up to 2,900 intensive care beds."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/uk-care-providers-allege-covid-19-death-toll-underestimated

The same policy of culling of our old ones goes on in the UK, in USA and in Sweden.
This is nothing but a great scandal.
Lockdown of those who don't even need to be protected, while those that are most at risk get no protection whatsoever.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 03:26:05 PM by Hefaistos »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5607 on: April 17, 2020, 03:26:43 PM »
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

Quote
Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

My bold. The big difference from pandemics of the past, climate control.

Ventilation of indoor spaces and surface disinfection are a must.

Not that different. Main category is sharing a home. People did this since forever and recently most of the human H5N1 clusters were family clusters because they share a home.

Transport: now we are on busses but sharing a horse coach or a sailing ship would work too (but ships are slower then planes etc).

They are proving something we already know.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5608 on: April 17, 2020, 03:38:00 PM »
Evidence SARS-CoV-2 Emerged From a Biological Laboratory in Wuhan, China
Published April 16, 2020.


https://project-evidence.github.io/

This is the best review of the evidence clearly pointing to this virus originating from a Laboratory.


« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 08:24:30 PM by harpy »

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5609 on: April 17, 2020, 03:49:11 PM »
Another datum for the asymptomatic transmission (tip of the iceberg) question:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5610 on: April 17, 2020, 03:55:15 PM »
Speaking of deaths, yesterday there was an interesting new graphic on the Austrian news. It seems they now differentiate between 'died from COVID-19' and 'died with COVID-19'. The former is 12.4% lower than the latter. Of course, this all depends on how death is assigned, which is difficult to do, as so many of the deceased in Austria had comorbidities. Either way, the main question is: by how much were people's lives shortened?

Yes, there has been much debate about how many deaths have actually been caused by Covid-19.  Assigning cause of death in cases with more than one contributing factor can be somewhat arbitrary.  I feel that the best method would be to simply add all the deaths due to influenza, pneumonia, and Covid-19 together.  The excess deaths, compared to average years, could be attributed to the virus.  This is not that different what agencies have done in the past when they combine the deaths due to respiratory illness.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5611 on: April 17, 2020, 03:57:08 PM »
Trump has been sabotaging the world's response since the beginning of this emergency, and he has to sabotage it even further to save face he will do so. It does not matter how many people die.

He just called for the US to end WHO funding. Right in the middle of a global pandemic.

We are witnessing Trump get away with mass murder for everyone to see. It will not get better.

Yeah, and seems to me that the Swedish authorities copied Trump's policy here.
The effect: Mass murder of our old people sitting in our nursing homes like lame ducks, just waiting to be culled.
And this is due to our so called 'experts' ignorance and our decision makers' lethargy.

"The /Swedish laissez-faire/ strategy has also come under fire from some of the country’s scientists. A group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers on Tuesday criticised the health agency in an op-ed published by Dagens Nyheter newspaper.
“The approach must be changed radically and quickly,” the group wrote. “As the virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants. Everyone who works with the elderly must wear adequate protective equipment. Quarantine the whole family if one member is ill or tests positive. Elected representatives must intervene, there is no other choice.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

Old people with symptoms, or tested positive with mild symptoms, are sent back to their nursing homes, according to what this GP says.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/486065-uk-care-homes-disregard/

"There is also concern about the impact of Covid-19 patients being discharged by hospitals into care homes filled with the frail and elderly in order to free up beds. Questions are being asked about why this is happening, when the Nightingale hospital in Docklands has received only a small number of patients – reported to be just 19 at the weekend – when it has capacity for up to 2,900 intensive care beds."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/uk-care-providers-allege-covid-19-death-toll-underestimated

The same policy of culling of our old ones goes on in the UK, in USA and in Sweden.
This is nothing but a great scandal.
Lockdown of those who don't even need to be protected, while those that are most at risk get no protection whatsoever.

Yes, many European countries are not known for their care of the elderly.  It is a drain on the medical system, which they try to minimize.

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5612 on: April 17, 2020, 04:10:59 PM »
Richard doesn't seem to have posted this yet, so....

Quote
As of 9am on 17 April, 438,991 tests have concluded, with 21,328 tests carried out on 16 April.

341,551 people have been tested, of whom 108,692 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 16 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 14,576 have died.

UK daily deaths up to 847
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sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5613 on: April 17, 2020, 04:12:29 PM »
Our World in Data says world CFR currently ~7% and rising, with all the known limitations of this metric:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5614 on: April 17, 2020, 04:27:51 PM »
I posted a tweet with this graphic, but here's the article, written a week ago (April 10), only including data up to April 4:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total
Quote
Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died.

That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both.

Detailed data about deaths are hard to collect in real time, and the best available numbers, still incomplete, can lag by up to two weeks. That also means that they do not include the last few days, when the highest number of coronavirus deaths so far have been recorded in the city.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5615 on: April 17, 2020, 04:35:28 PM »
todays gov.uk figures https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Cumulative: 341,551 people tested   108,692 positive cases   14,576 deaths in hospital
Daily:          13,943 tests                 5,599   positive               847 deaths

Surveillance testing is still having accuracy problems and on too small a scale to have any use yet. The number of positives among self-isolating key workers is still going up.
...

Looking to be on a decent downward trajectory (Rt 0.50 +-0.20) after adding today's data point but the uncertainty is still high enough that these daily estimates will keep bouncing around for a while yet. https://twitter.com/jamesannan

...

Quote
Mr Hunt, whose committee heard from the Health Secretary Matt Hancock earlier today, said that in some parts of Britain infection rates were low enough that mass testing could be started immediately, citing parts of Yorkshire and Cornwall as examples.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52319956

Open Cornwall to tourists from Yorkshire, while turning back Lancastrians at the Tamar bridge?

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5616 on: April 17, 2020, 04:40:52 PM »
Another datum for the asymptomatic transmission (tip of the iceberg) question:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

More from the article:
Quote
The possibility that the coronavirus spreads in a mostly stealthy mode among a population of largely young, healthy people showing no symptoms could have major implications for U.S. policy-makers, who are considering how and when to reopen the economy.

It also renews questions about the extent to which U.S. testing of just the people suspected of being infected is actually capturing the spread of the virus in the United States and around the world
...
Testing the entire military is not yet feasible, given still-limited testing capacity, officials say, and detecting enough cases without tests is impossible if most cases are asymptomatic. ...
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5617 on: April 17, 2020, 04:41:22 PM »
Iceland update

As we came to the conclusion (due to semi-randomized testing efforts) that Iceland had 2-4 thousand cases at the beginning of April it is now time to see how they are faring.

They have by now tested well over 10% of the population and have 1782 official cases. 9 dead, 3 in intensive care, 32 in hospital.

Still many asymptomatic cases pop up although less than 2-3 weeks before as active case numbers are falling strongly. Data and charts here:

https://www.covid.is/data

IFR is now likely to be in the range of 0,25-0,85% by end of April (I expect 10-15 dead and case number is min 1782 max 4000.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5618 on: April 17, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »
Quite expectedly, the main highways out of the capital region saw a 50% rise in traffic after the ban on non-essential travel was lifted. Otherwise little to report from Finland. No notable decrease or increase in the speed of new numbers of cases, increasing steadily. Should start tracking how the numbers change in towns and villages with extensive cottage areas.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5619 on: April 17, 2020, 05:15:48 PM »
A member of my model rocket club died of the covid,
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5620 on: April 17, 2020, 05:16:39 PM »
Open Cornwall to tourists from Yorkshire.

I was born in Yorkshire, but I have no desire to see emmets from oop North crossing the Tamar Bridge in my direction!

Meanwhile here's more moronicness from Westminster:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.html

Quote
U.K. Paid $20 Million for New Coronavirus Tests. They Didn’t Work.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5621 on: April 17, 2020, 05:33:12 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html
Obesity Linked to Severe Coronavirus Disease, Especially for Younger Patients
Young adults with obesity are more likely to be hospitalized, even if they have no other health problems, studies show.
Quote
Obesity may be one of the most important predictors of severe coronavirus illness, new studies say. It’s an alarming finding for the United States, which has one of the highest obesity rates in the world.

Though people with obesity frequently have other medical problems, the new studies point to the condition in and of itself as the most significant risk factor, after only older age, for being hospitalized with Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Young adults with obesity appear to be at particular risk, studies show. ...

Some 42 percent of American adults — nearly 80 million people — live with obesity. That is a prevalence rate far exceeding those of other countries hit hard by the coronavirus, like China and Italy. ...

“If obesity does turn out to be an important risk factor for younger people, and we look at the rest of the United States — where obesity rates are higher than in New York — that will be of great concern,” said Dr. Roy Gulick, chief of infectious diseases at Weill Cornell Medicine. “We may see a lot more younger people being hospitalized.” ...

“We in the U.S. have not always identified obesity as a disease, and some people think it’s a lifestyle choice. But it’s not,” said Dr. Matthew Hutter, director of the Weight Center at Massachusetts General Hospital and president of the American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. “It makes people sick, and we’re realizing that now.”

Conventional wisdom has traditionally explained excess weight as a simple caloric imbalance that can be addressed by eating less and exercising more. Prominent medical groups have reconsidered their approach, however, and now recognize obesity as a medical disorder caused by a complex web of underlying factors, which in turn predisposes people to other serious medical problems.

Article quotes study from China published in Lancet, table 2 below.
Obesity and COVID-19 Severity in a Designated Hospital in Shenzhen, China
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556658

Also quotes preprint study done at NYU, table 3 below.
Factors associated with hospitalization and critical illness among 4,103 patients with COVID-19 disease in New York City
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5622 on: April 17, 2020, 06:01:09 PM »



Terry posted this link . It gives daily numbers by county in the US.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Calif. cases started in the Bay Area and then rates of infection increased in Southern Calif.
The rates of increase have dropped below ten day doubling in those areas .
The Southern Central Valley counties of Kern 8%,Tulare 10%and Fresno 8% currently have some of the fastest growth rates in the state . They also are some of the poorest counties with poverty rates at
Kern 20%, Tulare 22%, and Fresno 21%.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/fresnocountycalifornia,tularecountycalifornia,kerncountycalifornia/HEA775218
 
There was a news story about a shooting at a party of 400 in Bakersfield. A large gathering ( a party )
in an area with 8% growth rates seems like a potential for a superspreader event . I hope somebody is tracking the uncooperative revelers who declined to identify who the likely shooters where.
 The police were disinclined to give tickets for breaking “lockdown”.


https://www.kget.com/news/crime-watch/mass-shooting-injures-six-people-in-east-bakersfield/

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5623 on: April 17, 2020, 06:13:59 PM »
The over-reaction was fine, I've said it before. But now there is more data, and efforts must be made to reduce the over-reaction.

 I think efforts should be made to decrease what doesn't work and increase what does work.

Better social distancing, not necessarily more social distancing.
Better masks and masking techniques, not strict requirements on mask-wearing ( except indoors).
Better, more frequents surface disinfection.
A sampling of towns and businesses for both active infections and antibodies, allowing for more selective quarantines.
Contact tracing teams should be getting ready to ramp up.


Panic is always our enemy, but fear sometimes is our friend.  The difference between panic and fear is that fear leads to the appropriate defensive measures while panic leads to inaction.

Was there any over-reaction ? Over here the lockdown starts to fail. Tomorrow we start the 6th week. And the virus still infects 1300 people a day. And they all got infected during the lockdown. If the incubation time is on average 5 days, max 14. And lets assume they infect some family on the way. We should have seen a peak between 2 and 3 weeks after the start of the lockdown. If the virus manage to infect 1000+ people a day in a lockdown. Than how many will get infected when they lift the lockdown ? And they are already loosening the lockdown.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5624 on: April 17, 2020, 06:15:01 PM »
US president Donald Trump has sent a series of incendiary tweets calling on states currently under stay-at-home orders to be liberated.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1251169987110330372

LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment. It is under siege!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1251169217531056130

LIBERATE MICHIGAN!

---------------------------

... isn't there a law against 'incitement to riot'

--------------------------------

Rightwing Groups Behind Wave of Protests Against Covid-19 Restrictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/far-right-coronavirus-protests-restrictions

While protesters in Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and other states claim to speak for ordinary citizens, many are also supported by street-fighting rightwing groups like the Proud Boys, conservative armed militia groups, religious fundamentalists, anti-vaccination groups and other elements of the radical right.

On Wednesday in Lansing, Michigan, a protest put together by two Republican-connected not-for-profits was explicitly devised to cause gridlock in the city, and for a time blocked the entrance to a local hospital.

It was organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition, which Michigan state corporate filings show has also operated under the name of Michigan Trump Republicans. It was also heavily promoted by the Michigan Freedom Fund, a group linked to Trump cabinet member Betsy DeVos.

But the protest also attracted far right protest groups who have been present at pro-Trump and gun rights rallies in Michigan throughout the Trump presidency.

Placards identified the Michigan Proud Boys as participants in the vehicle convoy. Near the state house, local radio interviewed a man who identified himself as “Phil Odinson”.

https://www.michiganadvance.com/2020/04/15/whitmer-stay-home-order-protest-turns-into-trump-celebration-with-confederate-flags-and-guns/

In fact the man is Phil Robinson, the prime mover in a group called the Michigan Liberty Militia, whose Facebook page features pictures of firearms, warnings of civil war, celebrations of Norse paganism, and memes ultimately sourced from white nationalist groups like Patriot Front.

The pattern of rightwing not-for-profits promoting public protests while still more radical groups use lockdown resistance as a platform for extreme rightwing causes looks set to continue in events advertised in other states over coming days.

In Idaho on Friday, protesters plan to gather at the capitol building in Boise to protest anti-virus restrictions put in place by the Republican governor, Brad Little.

The protest has been heavily promoted by the Idaho Freedom Foundation (IFF), which counts among its donors “dark money” funds linked to the Koch brothers such as Donors Capital Fund, and Castle Rock, a foundation seeded with part of the fortune of Adolph Coors, the rightwing beer magnate.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article225248740.html

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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5625 on: April 17, 2020, 06:47:11 PM »
https://www.nu.nl/uitleg-over-het-coronavirus/6045464/bekijk-de-coronacijfers-van-17-april-in-zes-grafieken.html?redirect=1

Dutch covid numbers in graphs. You can see where deaths and hospitalisations are concentrated.

Quote
Bijna 60 procent van overleden patiënten is ouder dan 80 jaar
Ruim de helft van het aantal overleden coronapatiënten was tachtig jaar of ouder (57,9 procent). En bijna de helft (49,3 procent) van de opgenomen coronapatiënten is 69 jaar of ouder.

Ongeveer een op de tien opgenomen coronapatiënten is jonger dan vijftig jaar, maar slecht 0,6 procent van de met het virus besmette mensen onder de vijftig overlijdt aan COVID-19.

60% of deaths are in the over 80 age group.
49,3% of hospitalized patients 69 years old or older
10% of hospitalized patients is under 50 but deaths in that age group are 0,6%.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5626 on: April 17, 2020, 07:02:21 PM »

Was there any over-reaction ?

Iceland overreacted. New Zealand overreacted. China overreacted everywhere except for Wuhan where it underreacted. Anyone who closed early and tight overreacted.  Anyone with a strained healthcare system under reacted.

Quote
Over here the lockdown starts to fail. Tomorrow we start the 6th week. And the virus still infects 1300 people a day.

Then your lockdown wasn't locked down enough. You must tighten up.

Quote
And they all got infected during the lockdown. If the incubation time is on average 5 days, max 14. And lets assume they infect some family on the way. We should have seen a peak between 2 and 3 weeks after the start of the lockdown.


Then your lockdown is not real, only a figment of the collective imagination of those in government. A real lockdown WILL reduce transmission because the laws of biophysics say it so. If the lockdown is perfect (impossible), where every individual is isolated from the others then after about 14 days there shouldn't be any cases. In reality the shutdown is far from perfect.

Remove the things that do not work and cause undue burden and improve the things that work.

Quote
If the virus manage to infect 1000+ people a day in a lockdown. Than how many will get infected when they lift the lockdown ? And they are already loosening the lockdown.

A lot more over the course of the next year.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5627 on: April 17, 2020, 07:25:35 PM »
Twitter thread from Michael Mina, MD, PhD
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1251020261736005639
11:30 pm April 16, 2020
Michael Mina is an Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and of Infectious Diseases at Harvard School of Public Health, an Associate Medical Director in the Department of Pathology at Brigham and Women's Hospital, and an Associate Member of the Broad Institute.
Quote
In US

Perhaps 30+ MILLION have had #COVID19 virus

In NYC, 15% of pregnancies had antibodies
A German town had 14%
Most asymptomatic

Some nursing homes have ~50%+

Clearly this virus transmits fast

If this is the case, it begins to paint a new path forward for society:

1/n

If shown to be consistent in additional studies, such high numbers infected would suggest

1) SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower fatality rate than we think (by an order of magnitude or more)

2) Population immunity is already building up

Elderly would still remain vulnerable... 2/n

US as of today

among least vulnerable (<55y)

877 deaths; 231M people.

For different assumed % infected (mostly b4 social dist), infection fatality would be:

a) 0.1% infected = 0.37% IFR
b) 1%  = 0.037%
c) 10%  = 0.0037%
d) 30% = 0.0012%

Truth most likely near c (or d).

3/n

IF 10%+ of population has been infected

fatality rates could begin to look tolerable, particularly when weighed against economic collapse

But to act on it would require massive PROTECTIONS for the more vulnerable (>55y).

To do so would be exceedingly difficult

4/n

But could start painting a path to creatively think up solutions to get people back to work.

First though, more sero-prevalence studies are needed to confirm: is it 1% already infected, or 30%, or somewhere between?

I think >30 Million (>10%)

The next few weeks will tell

CORRECTION:
15% pregnancies had PCR (+) Virus.

Suggests MANY more potentially seropositive for antibodies!

In his replies to other tweets:
Quote
Recent dutch study found 3% blood donors positive for antibodies (Ab). Blood collected ~early April

Abs detectable ~12 days post infection => 3%+ by ~March 25

That was early in Netherland epi curve.

Today - probably 3x+ number of cases since March 25. So ~10%?

Re: German study:
Quote
That is one data point. My primary data point is intimate knowledge on the complete lack of testing in US. Even in Boston, where there is more testing capacity per capita then maybe any other city in the US, we have failed to test but a fraction of those requiring it.

If you read the full thread I clearly say that we need additional studies.

The german study, Diamond princess, nursing homes, NYC - all of these are indeed biased hotspots. That they exist so frequently provides a window into the capacity for transmission of this virus.

Question: where does the 30 million estimate come from?
Quote
30M is 10%. Many 'hotspots' show >10%. Other places <10%.

We have likely tested far less than 1 in 10 people who should have been tested, and many young people were likely asymptomatic and didn't need testing. So fraction undertested <1:10. Starts to push infections ~10%

Question: Iceland: “The percentage of participants who tested positive in population screening remained stable (0.8%) over the course of 20 days...”
Quote
Agreed. recall that this is a transient virus. 0.8% prevalence adds up when you integrate to obtain cumulative incidence. A constant 0.8% positivity rate does not mean 0.8% have been infected. Much more.

He gave a good presentation on April 10 on issues with PCR and prospects for antibody testing:
Infectious Disease and Microbiome Program Meeting:
"COVID testing: What went wrong, where we are now, and where we are going"
Broad Institute


« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 07:54:54 PM by sigma_squared »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5628 on: April 17, 2020, 07:39:08 PM »
The German 'study' by Streeck is more that fishy! It was apparently initiated by a politician and a marketing agency to push an agenda.

Link >> https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=de&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.riffreporter.de%2Fcorona-virus%2Fcorona-streeck-heinsberg-pandemie-exit-laschet%2F

I put the word study in airquotes above because there isn't even a paper yet. So it's rather anekdotal.

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Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5630 on: April 17, 2020, 07:55:27 PM »
Finland had been underreporting deaths, reporting only hospital deaths, the few outbreaks in elder homes have not been counted to official numbers. Likely these are a result of working in two jobs by some infected persons. Expect a jump in numbers of deaths next week as these should be added by then. Very few still compared to Sweden, though.

The Finnish epidemiological model says diminishing contacts between people by 60% may be enough to get the thing decreasing. With the closures of the regular bar, public swimming pools and libraries I'm probably somewhere at 85-90%, so doing ok, I guess. I'm not a social person even by Finnish standards so managing. Some friends have become way more asocial than usual, but really can't help them.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5631 on: April 17, 2020, 08:01:46 PM »
In the elderly care home over here, already 40 from the 110 people died. And we have many of these care homes.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5632 on: April 17, 2020, 08:35:03 PM »
The excess deaths, compared to average years, could be attributed to the virus.  This is not that different what agencies have done in the past when they combine the deaths due to respiratory illness.
Yes, that is what one can see for example at the European Mortality Monitor: http://www.euromomo.eu/

This is also done for heat waves.

One can see that excess mortality now is approximately proportional to normal mortality in different age brackets:


(The latest datapoint is always a bit lower because of lags in reporting.)

« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 08:40:34 PM by pietkuip »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5633 on: April 17, 2020, 09:46:44 PM »
Actually, given that for healthy under 50s, mortality is extremely low, way below 0,1% (see NY data):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

we should create herd immunity if we could separate everyone else who has some health issue and/or above 50/60.
Young&healthy people would get the virus and when almost every one of them got it, we could end the separation.

Unfortunately this seems to be  impossible in practice...

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5634 on: April 17, 2020, 09:57:42 PM »
Well, around 26% of the US population is between 35 and 54. If 70% of them get it and 0.1% die, that's 60,000 deaths in that age bracket. Still a pretty bitter pill.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5635 on: April 17, 2020, 10:22:33 PM »
There are two numbers to calculate a simple fatality rate. The number of fatalities and the number of cases. I see serologies that indicate that many positive cases were missed. If so many positive cases were missed, how many fatalities that could be attributed to C19 were missed?

On excess death. Careful. The shutdown should have led to lower mortality rates.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5636 on: April 17, 2020, 10:31:31 PM »
In his replies to other tweets:
Quote
Recent dutch study found 3% blood donors positive for antibodies (Ab). Blood collected ~early April

Abs detectable ~12 days post infection => 3%+ by ~March 25

That was early in Netherland epi curve.

Today - probably 3x+ number of cases since March 25. So ~10%?
Deaths are also a lagging indicator, even worse than antibodies.
So the Dutch IFR would still be ~>=1%.

The hon. Prof. estimate of huge numbers of true cases and very low IFR is IMHO wrong. It's true that younger healthy people are at much less risk, but not the extremely low levels of risk he is describing. IMHO.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5637 on: April 17, 2020, 10:39:30 PM »
Very good and balanced interview, in which hardly anything is left out:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5638 on: April 17, 2020, 10:57:12 PM »
WHO Warning: No Evidence That Antibody Tests Can Show Coronavirus Immunity
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/17/who-issues-warning-on-coronavirus-testing-theres-no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html

The World Health Organization issued a warning Friday about coronavirus testing, saying there's no evidence serological tests can show whether a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected.

"These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of serology presence, that level of antibodies, but that does not mean that somebody with antibodies" is immune, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit.

In the U.S., antibody tests have just begun to roll out. President Donald Trump has recommended states use the tests as they start relaxing some of the strict social distancing measures imposed to combat the pandemic, which has infected more than 671,000 people in the United States.

Kerkhove said WHO officials discovered many countries suggesting these tests would be able to "capture what they think will be a measure of immunity."

"What the use of these tests will do will measure the level of antibodies. It's a response that the body has a week or two later after they've been infected with this virus," she said at a news conference at WHO's Geneva headquarters. "Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual is immune or protected from reinfection."

Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's emergencies program, said scientists are also still determining the length of protection antibodies might give a person who has been infected with the coronavirus.

"Nobody is sure whether someone with antibodies is fully protected against having the disease or being exposed again," he said.

"Plus some of the tests have issues with sensitivity," he added. "They may give a false negative result."

Earlier this week, WHO officials said not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising concern that patients may not develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5639 on: April 18, 2020, 12:13:05 AM »
Very good and balanced interview, in which hardly anything is left out

Yeah I responded in a very personal mode for which I apologize. I don’t root for Sweden’s fail, of course, but it’s difficult for me to understand their model. Spain was hit so hard by the super slow reaction of its useless government that we are too emotional right now and dismiss anything that is not a heavy hammer against the virus.

There have to be solutions for a significant back to economy (not total, e.g. Spain is screwed with no tourism this year, would be nice to have less, but not so sudden) while allowing a significant number of covid cases without flooding hospitals, and being careful with the population at risk. But requires discipline and hard measures and Sweden’s personal responsibility approach, I believe (not hope) is not an example, who knows I may be wrong. Taiwan is what I consider a prime example, yes, that country that the corrupt WHO doesn’t even recognize.

That’s all. The funny thing is that we are at a level of activity that many have been asking for a more sustainable environment for years, but it’s clear it is not the way, to force it in one month.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5640 on: April 18, 2020, 12:36:42 AM »
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Quote
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.


This is the first compelling evidence for an Iceberg of C19 positive people underneath the tip of tested cases I've seen. I have serious doubts about the randomness of this sample and its highly female and young sample composition.

But the numbers are too big to simply ignore.

If there is an iceberg under the tip, are they immune or have they simply been exposed?

Did they have the disease Covid19 and developed immunity or were they simply exposed and
have the marker?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5641 on: April 18, 2020, 01:05:20 AM »
And now we have entered that phase of the catastrophe where Grief plays an ever larger role. It mangles the responses. It distorts actions. And chaos ensues if there isn't intelligent compassionate wise leadership. We have none of those at the moment.

The data will become messy. The responses will be messier yet, with people and areas running in opposing directions.
  • Some people remain caught in shock and cannot comprehend or accept that this is real.
  • Some are deep in denial wanting the reality to be what it was and refusing to accept the reality as it is.
  • Some have moved on to anger aimed in a thousand directions.
  • Others have moved past anger to bargaining; trying to find a way back to what was, or to escape the ravages of what is.
  • Some have moved on to resignation, and depression.
  • A few have moved to acceptance.
  • And in limited locations (China, Taiwan, New Zealand, Iceland among them) people have begun to move to Testing; feeling out what the new world is like on the other side of the pandemic.
The next several months will no doubt be rugged. In those countries (the US being a prime example) where a large portion of the population remains in a cocoon of denial, anger, betrayal, shock, and worse, the course will be particularly rocky.

This will delay finally resolving the problems. It will make the outcomes vastly worse.

A part of me grieves for that. Another part wishes them well on their journey into disaster and is fine with them committing suicide in their regions, though wishing they wouldn't take innocents along for the ride. Another rages against their stupidity. No one ever said the school of hard knocks was easy, cheap, or in any way safe.

But those too are aspects of grief. And so for my own benefit and healing it is time for me to bow out. I know what I need to do to protect myself, and to aid my friends and family in protecting themselves. I cannot significantly affect or influence the course of events beyond them. All I can do at this point is cause myself injury by engaging. And as a result - I now disengage to focus on healing my own grief.

Be safe everyone, as best you can. The ride from here is going to get very bumpy. Keep your seat belts fastened and your helmets on. Keep your hands inside the car at all times until the ride has come to a complete stop.

Sam
« Last Edit: April 18, 2020, 01:10:41 AM by Sam »

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5642 on: April 18, 2020, 01:14:00 AM »
Sam, Take care . I appreciate all the information you have provided us. I hope you can post on climate issues when you get the opportunity. You are a good writer and make for some good reading , on very many issues besides riding a pandemic !
 

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5643 on: April 18, 2020, 01:27:15 AM »
WHO Warning: No Evidence That Antibody Tests Can Show Coronavirus Immunity
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/17/who-issues-warning-on-coronavirus-testing-theres-no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html

The World Health Organization issued a warning Friday about coronavirus testing, saying there's no evidence serological tests can show whether a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected.

<snipped>
Until this fundamental question can be answered, any relaxation of isolation is simply rolling the dice and burying those who roll snake-eyes.


Terry

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5644 on: April 18, 2020, 01:43:41 AM »
Panic has been mentioned as a possible response on these pages, but I've seen no hint of it even among high risk groups.


People in general seem to recognise the seriousness of the situation, but the streets are noticeably absent of hysterics racing to or from places where contracting the disease seems more or less likely.


We've a lot that we need to consider, but Panic, at least for now shouldn't be of concern.


Perhaps this isn't true everywhere?
Terry

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5645 on: April 18, 2020, 02:17:09 AM »
Terry, Shopping for groceries was very different this week, third trip in five weeks. Most everyone had some face covering,
some pitifully ineffective. We should at least afford people of advanced age some decent masks !
Why authorities first told people they didn’t need masks is verging on criminal. Wearing mask gloves and glasses a month ago was edgy ,and not much appreciated, but it is perfectly normal now.
 No panic and maybe extra compassion instead. I am looking at people twenty years my senior ,worried about them but people twenty year younger than me probably worry about me. I know they do.
  We are approaching four months since Vox posted the first story on Corona back on Dec. 31.
  I have been trying to do all the shopping but my wife decided to go to the drug store. She has all the right PPE but her protocol was weak . I probably go a little overboard but all my clothes get left on the porch and then I shower when returning . I also squirt Clorox cleaner on the bottom of my shoes before entering the porch. Working out best practices takes some commitment to detail . 

   
 

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5646 on: April 18, 2020, 02:25:07 AM »
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Quote
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

p. 7 of the preprint:
Quote
We can use our prevalence estimates to approximate the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 in Santa Clara County. As of April 10, 2020, 50 people have died of COVID-19 in the County, with an average increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. If our estimates of 48,000-81,000 infections represent the cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to death[22]), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%. If antibodies take longer than 3 days to appear, if the average duration from case identification to death is less than 3 weeks, or if the epidemic wave has peaked and growth in deaths is less than 6% daily, then the infection fatality rate would be lower. These straightforward estimations of infection fatality rate fail to account for age structure and changing treatment approaches to COVID-19. Nevertheless, our prevalence estimates can be used to update existing fatality rates given the large upwards revision of under-ascertainment.

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5647 on: April 18, 2020, 02:25:37 AM »
In Alberta Canada, after the over 80+s are eliminated it's those in their 40s that are most at risk. They're followed by those in their 30s, then those in their 50s. Those in their 20s are as liable to be infected as those in their 60s, with the 70 somethings being the least infected of the adults.





These figures are all based on a per 100k basis.


Sorry about the size of the graphic. It's the yellow bars we're discussing.


https://covid19stats.alberta.ca/


and look under "characteristics"
Terry




TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5648 on: April 18, 2020, 03:04:24 AM »
Bruce
"Compassion" best summarizes the mood here.


The wife and I haven't been out without mask & gloves since the 1st of March. The only visitor here has been 2 visits by a phlebotomist to suck a bit of my blood.
We haven't been as careful as you, but outdoor clothing goes straight to a spare bedroom & will probably remain there for the duration.


I had my first ever telephone doctors visit yesterday. A specialist who assured me that my blood was still viable & that I won't need to "see" her for another 4 months. Ain't the future wonderful!


I'm envious of your home. Apartments have their strong points, but a backyard, a tree, & a garden are not part of the package.


When the weather warms the beaches of Port Dover will beckon. Beautiful sandy beaches and water damn near at body temperature. The beaches will either be off bounds, or too crowded to spread a towel.
I wonder if it will be possible to lease a sailboat for the summer. Anchor her offshore and maintain distancing across the surf line.  :)
I've never been that lucky :(
Terry

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5649 on: April 18, 2020, 04:00:04 AM »
Here is a Twitter thread that gives a very different interpretation of the Santa Clara seroprevalence data. It presents some Wuhan data as well. https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1251151111655813128?s=21