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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 286731 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5900 on: April 23, 2020, 03:13:19 PM »
What's Driving Governors' Lockdown Decisions?
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-governors-lockdown-decisions.html
https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2020/04/22/whats-driving-governors-lockdown-decisions

As debate and protests about lockdowns and opening up flare up across the nation, experts are considering why governors decided to lockdown states in the first place.


Plot of Days to Lockdown versus Days to First Case in State reveals Influence of Social Learning, Information Cascades, and Political Affiliation of Governor (as of April 15, 2020)

A team of researchers from the USC Marshall School of Business, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University and University of California, Riverside have examined the decision-making factors that led governors across the United States either to order lockdowns or to keep their states open amidst the threat of COVID-19. They had previously considered how long coronavirus quarantines could last based on empirical data on the severity of disease spread across states and countries. The authors' major finding is that governors were influenced more by behavioral theory of social learning, cascades, and political polarization, than by the science of disease penetration.

"It's striking how behavioral theories rather than disease science explain this vitally important decision for millions," said Tellis. "Our goal is merely to explain behavior, not to pass judgment."

Conventional wisdom would suggest that governors acted primarily on the percent of their state's population infected with COVID-19. Instead, the authors found and explained the four influences on governors' actions as follows.

Political affiliation: A Democratic governor was three times more likely than a Republican governor to impose a lockdown;

Social learning: Governors of states afflicted later by COVID-19 acted much faster than those who were afflicted early on, learning from the states afflicted before theirs;

Mini-cascades: Actions of some governors sparked multiple other governors to order lockdowns in their states in the next three days, due to informational cascades;

Disease Science: Counterintuitively, the percentage of the state's population infected with COVID-19, had the weakest effect on the governors' decisions of all the four variables.



While inaction is understandable, according to the researchers, delay is not without costs in terms of probable infections, lost work days, hospitalizations, suffering, and death in the long term. At the same time, such delay may have saved businesses, jobs, and extreme inconvenience to citizens in the short term.

Why Did US Governors Delay Lockdowns Against COVID-19? Disease Science vs Learning, Cascades, and Political Polarization
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3575004.

-----------------------------

Doctors Discover 'COVID toes,' a Symptom Mainly Seen in Kids
https://www.wifr.com/content/news/Doctors-discover-COVID-toes-a-symptom-mainly-seen-in-kids-569837791.html

Doctors identified a new symptom of COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus, informally dubbed “COVID toes.”

According to USA Today​, doctors say any purple or blue lesions on the patient's feet and/or toes is stumping infectious disease experts.

“They’re typically painful to touch and could have a hot burning sensation,” said Dr. Ebbing Lautenbach, chief of infectious disease at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Medicine.

Doctors said that symptoms of 'COVID toes' appeared in patients who do not show any other symptoms.

“COVID toes” in some people can disappear in the course of a week to 10 days, but others progress to respiratory symptoms, Lautenbach said.

This appears in children and young adults compared to any other age group. Ebbing suggested this may be because children and young adults have better immune systems.

Ebbing says 'COVID toes' was discovered in March by Italian doctors. Once word spread of the unusual diagnosis, doctors in the United States began recognizing more cases.

There are two running hypotheses on what could cause “COVID toes." One possible explanation, Ebbing said, is that there is an inflammatory response more localized to a patient’s foot and toes. Or it could be a clotting of blood vessels.

Although patients with “COVID toes” are more likely to test negative for COVID-19, as the virus is in its earliest stages, he said patients should quarantine at home and monitor closely for developing symptoms
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5901 on: April 23, 2020, 03:16:50 PM »
Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

Quote
A total of 5700 patients were included (median age, 63 years [interquartile range {IQR}, 52-75; range, 0-107 years]; 39.7% female). The most common comorbidities were hypertension (3026; 56.6%), obesity (1737; 41.7%), and diabetes (1808; 33.8%). At triage, 30.7% of patients were febrile, 17.3% had a respiratory rate greater than 24 breaths/minute, and 27.8% received supplemental oxygen. The rate of respiratory virus co-infection was 2.1%. Outcomes were assessed for 2634 patients who were discharged or had died at the study end point. During hospitalization, 373 patients (14.2%) (median age, 68 years [IQR, 56-78]; 33.5% female) were treated in the intensive care unit care, 320 (12.2%) received invasive mechanical ventilation, 81 (3.2%) were treated with kidney replacement therapy, and 553 (21%) died. Mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation was 88.1%. The median postdischarge follow-up time was 4.4 days (IQR, 2.2-9.3). A total of 45 patients (2.2%) were readmitted during the study period. The median time to readmission was 3 days (IQR, 1.0-4.5) for readmitted patients. Among the 3066 patients who remained hospitalized at the final study follow-up date (median age, 65 years [IQR, 54-75]), the median follow-up at time of censoring was 4.5 days (IQR, 2.4-8.1).
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5902 on: April 23, 2020, 04:08:12 PM »
Coronavirus Model Used By White House Increases Death Toll 10%
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/22/coronavirus-model-used-by-white-house-increases-death-toll-10/amp/

A University of Washington model of coronavirus deaths was updated—and increased 10%— Wednesday to include a presumed increase in nursing home deaths (according to CNN),  ultimately predicting the country will see 66,000 deaths from the disease by August.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

I can understand the importance and usefulness of models even as I have no idea how they are constructed. What I don't understand is how a model can be predicting 66K deaths by August when we are going to hit this number in early May.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5903 on: April 23, 2020, 04:37:24 PM »
I think people are misrepresenting what Neven has to say.  No, he is not saying that this pandemic is like the flu.  Rather, the death toll is mimicking a rather severe flu season. 

Using the graph posted by pietkuip showing the death toll in the Netherlands, the 2018 flu season exhibited a spike in deaths from 2500 to 4000, an increase of 1500.  The current spike due to COVID was from 3000 to 5000, an increase of 2000.  The major issue is not the number of deaths, rather the rapid increase that caused a major concern.  The outbreak is not over, so it is still too soon to make too many conclusions.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5904 on: April 23, 2020, 04:42:48 PM »
Former Labradoodle Breeder Was Tapped to Lead U.S. Pandemic Task Force
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci-idUSKCN2243CE

... As the coronavirus crisis struck the US, health and human services secretary Alex Azar appointed Brian Harrison, who most recently ran a dog-breeding business, to oversee the department’s daily response to coronavirus.

The unusual decision was one of a number of errors and misjudgements from Azar earlier this year that hobbled the country’s initial response to the outbreak.

... [A]t the dawn of the coronavirus crisis, Azar appointed his most trusted aide and chief of staff, Harrison, as HHS’s main coordinator for the government’s response to the virus.

Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields. In 2006, he joined HHS in a one-year stint as a ‘Confidential Assistant’ to Azar, who was then deputy secretary. He also had posts working for Vice President Dick Cheney, the Department of Defense and a Washington public relations company.

Before joining the Trump Administration in January 2018, Harrison’s official HHS biography says, he ‘ran a small business in Texas.’ The biography does not disclose the name or nature of that business, but his personal financial disclosure forms show that from 2012 until 2018 he ran a company called Dallas Labradoodles.

The company sells Australian Labradoodles, a breed that is a cross between a Labrador Retriever and a Poodle. He sold it in April 2018, his financial disclosure form said. HHS emailed Reuters that the sale price was $225,000.


... Azar has been repeatedly criticized for overestimating the country’s preparedness as the first coronavirus case was confirmed in the US. The cabinet secretary claimed the virus was “potentially serious” but insisted America had a “playbook” to address it.

In reality, delays in testing and initial downplaying of the virus’ severity cost the US crucial weeks in its early response to the outbreak.

---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5905 on: April 23, 2020, 04:54:13 PM »
I think people are misrepresenting what Neven has to say.  No, he is not saying that this pandemic is like the flu.  Rather, the death toll is mimicking a rather severe flu season. 


The death toll is mimicking the flu precisely because of the social distancing rules put into effect.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5906 on: April 23, 2020, 05:17:08 PM »
Today's gov.uk figures
Cumulative: 425,821 people tested   138,078 positive cases   18,738 deaths in hospital
Daily:            14,629   tested               4,583 positives            616 deaths

Plenty of spare testing capacity for the surveillance announced today, its a drop in the ocean of unused testing capacity. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52390970

30% drop compared to a week ago in deaths, but only London is showing anything like that sort of rate of drop in hospital occupancy
...
616 against James' forecast of 540 gets close as the weekend effect fades away
Rt estimate now 0.59 (+-0.12) Tomorrow's forecast 530 (320-860)


SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5907 on: April 23, 2020, 05:24:04 PM »
I think people are misrepresenting what Neven has to say.  No, he is not saying that this pandemic is like the flu.  Rather, the death toll is mimicking a rather severe flu season. 


The death toll is mimicking the flu precisely because of the social distancing rules put into effect.

Quite  right.  This does resemble the mother of all flu seasons.  Except that unlike influenza, there is no vaccine and no treatment.  Also, that all people are susceptible, instead of just some.  Also, that most jurisdictions are seeing a doubling time for more cases, something quite unlike influenza.

In other words, this is nothing like an influenza season.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5908 on: April 23, 2020, 05:51:30 PM »
Lets also not forget we know what the flu does.

Do we know what SARS-CoV-2 does long term? Hell no! All we have is hints. And there are hints that there could be neurological damage, strokes, heart damage, lung damage...

We don't know the enemy yet.

How could we possibly not be extremely cautious?
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5909 on: April 23, 2020, 06:28:14 PM »
While NYC is improving now, I think there is a factor many in this thread have missed. I do believe population-wide vitamin D levels are very important for attenuating both transmissibility and severity of this virus.

Is that you bbr?

Gone from peddling an impending ice age to hawking vitamin D as a cure all for SARS CoV-19. Why am I not surprised.
That is not at all what I said.

Vitamin D is not a cure, but it is very likely preventative re: transmission, and also re: severity.

All current hotspots in the outbreak are emerging from NHEM winter and have large Vit D deficient populations, with the exception of Guayaquil, which is emerging from their cloudiest time of year.

Additionally, as explicitly described in the study I linked which I am guessing you did not read, it is likely the confounding factor behind less morbidity AND less mortality in Bergen vs. Baltimore for Spanish Flu.

Why does every influenza pandemic peak in October / November?

It is not a CURE, but it is a major factor in the spread of disease, particularly those that target the upper respiratory tract, i.e. influenza, and probably COVID.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/isrn/2013/246737/
Quote
While working as a psychiatrist at a maximum-security hospital, John Cannell screened his patients for vitamin D and found that all had very low levels. This led him to recommend that they take 2000 IU/d of vitamin D, the US “upper limit of tolerability”. Several months later an epidemic of influenza broke out at the hospital. Cannell noticed that none of the patients on his own ward developed symptoms, yet sickness was rampant among patients on adjacent wards, despite intermingling between patients and nurses [36]. This observation suggested to Cannell that vitamin D supplementation protected against influenza, an idea consistent with several facts: influenza is a wintertime illness; children with rickets are at increased risk of respiratory infections; and elderly individuals in most countries are more likely to die in winter than in summer months. Cannell and associates [33–35] proposed that influenza is a dormant viral disease that becomes active in response to vitamin D deficiency. Seasonal fluctuations in influenza were explained in terms of annual fluctuations in 25-hydroxy-vitamin D levels due to lack of exposure to sunlight. The vitamin D deficiency hypothesis similarly explained the following observations:

(i)   the appearance of influenza in winter, when vitamin D levels are at their lowest,
(ii)   the disappearance of influenza following the summer solstice,
(iii)   the increased prevalence of influenza in the tropics and other areas during rainy seasons,
(iv)   the inverse association between influenza and outdoor temperature,
(v)   the decreased incidence of colds among children exposed to sunlight.

Activated vitamin D,1,25(OH)2D, a steroid hormone, is an immune system modulator that reduces the expression of inflammatory cytokines and increases macrophage function. Vitamin D also stimulates the expression of potent antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), which exist in neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer cells, and epithelial cells of the respiratory tract [37]. Other observations explained by the vitamin D hypothesis are that
(i)   volunteers inoculated with live influenza virus in winter were more likely to develop fever and serologic evidence of an immune response than in summer months;
(ii)   vitamin D deficiency predisposes children to respiratory infection;
(iii)   ultraviolet (UV) radiation reduces the incidence of viral respiratory infections;
(iv)   vitamin D supplementation reduces the incidence of respiratory infections in children [33].

The vitamin D deficiency hypothesis accounts for many hitherto unexplained facts about the epidemiology of influenza [38, 39]. Influenza is an allegedly highly infectious viral illness that shows marked seasonal fluctuations, peaking in the winter months and then ending abruptly; it has an obscure serial interval, with a very low secondary attack rate that occurs simultaneously in countries of similar latitude; it spreads very rapidly despite the absence of modern transportation; a high percentage of seronegative volunteers escape illness or experience only a mild illness after being inoculated with novel influenza virus; and vaccine effectiveness is questionable [40, 41].

Is Vitamin D a cure-all? No, it is not. Does it help your immune system when it is at adequate levels, reducing both your chances of acquiring viruses (esp those that attack the lungs) and reducing your chances of death? Research indicates this is the case. When POPULATION-WIDE levels are sufficiently high, does it reduce R0 of disease as well as mortality to levels that are usually undetectable? The seasonality of flu would argue that is the case.

So, the data shows it is important on both an individual AND a population-wide level. As March turns to April, and April turns to May, populations in the NHEM go from deficient to adequate. As September turns to October, the opposite occurs.

I hope Neven is right re: fatality rates. I am optimistic this has been very overblown, and that NYC may already be verging on herd immunity. I very much hope that is the case.

But there is certainly a possibility that the current pandemic is following the same trajectory as 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. In fact, the data behind every single previous pandemic's evolution would argue that is exactly what is happening.

I hope that latent infections do not reactivate in October. But the best thing you can do to protect yourself in that instance besides isolating is ensuring your immune system is operating at full capacity, and for that, you should be supplementing Vit D. I also have no intention of staying in NYC past September to find out if that is indeed the case, because the mismanagement in the herald wave of this pandemic leads me to believe that if the autumn wave is worse, NYC is going to be completely uninhabitable for however long.

P.S. Cuomo's conference today said antibody testing in NYC indicates about 22% of the city has now been exposed, and with a three-week lag from infections to antibodies, the % could be far higher by now. This is very good news for the summertime, and I think it shows NYC should now be back to work and out and about, although masks should still be mandatory in all public places. It also indicates the fatality rate is actually .5% in NYC, which is 5X or higher vs seasonal flu, but far from the plague etc.

I think my date to venture back to the "downbelow" is May 7th, aka 60 days of complete isolation in the "upabove," although I was basically isolated since Feb 22nd (was in suburban DC from 2/22-3/7, only contacts then were dentist apt and DR apt, the latter I wore a mask on & got prescriptions for chloroquine, tamiflu, and descovy / PrEP, none of which I have taken yet).

On that last note, I think Descovy / Truvada are the most promising candidates as prophylactics.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.022939v1

I would not be surprised to find out that Trump & Co. are already all on Descovy / Truvada, I don't see another explanation for how they are not infected given all the news from March re: the Brazilians, but the manufacturing capacity for these drugs is very limited and they would not be viable solutions for population-wide prevention anytime soon if the research is verified further.

Quote
SARS-CoV-2, a member of the coronavirus family, is responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic. We previously demonstrated that four nucleotide analogues (specifically, the active triphosphate forms of Sofosbuvir, Alovudine, AZT and Tenofovir alafenamide) inhibit the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). Tenofovir and emtricitabine are the two components in DESCOVY and TRUVADA, the two FDA-approved medications for use as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV infection. This is a preventative method in which individuals who are HIV negative (but at high-risk of contracting the virus) take the combination drug daily to reduce the chance of becoming infected with HIV. PrEP can stop HIV from replicating and spreading throughout the body. We report here that the triphosphates of tenofovir and emtricitabine, the two components in DESCOVY and TRUVADA, act as terminators for the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp catalyzed reaction. These results provide a molecular basis to evaluate the potential of DESCOVY and TRUVADA as PrEP for COVID-19.

I am currently stockpiling my Descovy for when I do leave NYC (hopefully), either bound for Australia / Taiwan or Hawai'i. By mid-September I will have a six-seven month supply which means I will have daily usage available for October-March. While the antibody testing etc leaves me optimistic re: summertime, I am very very worried about what is going to happen in October.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 06:54:52 PM by bbr2315 »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5910 on: April 23, 2020, 07:14:12 PM »
It seems that 21% of the people in NYC tests positive for the serologies performed. Using 8.5 million as the population of NYC and 15k as the fatalities, that gives and IFR of about 0.85%.


Herd immunity will not be protective enough to depend on it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5911 on: April 23, 2020, 07:22:32 PM »
It seems that 21% of the people in NYC tests positive for the serologies performed. Using 8.5 million as the population of NYC and 15k as the fatalities, that gives and IFR of about 0.85%.


Herd immunity will not be protective enough to depend on it.
The 21% is likely an undercount, as it takes three weeks to develop antibodies, so we are measuring as of 4/2 (or whenever three weeks before this study concluded was). With R0 around 1 or slightly below since then, it is not hard to imagine we could be at 30-40% by now. And that is probably distributed unevenly as well, i.e., most essential workers etc are probably now immune.

My previous posts re: blood type also should provide some buffer to herd immunity. 15% of the US is RH-, I would guess it is about that number in NYC, and this group has shown to be particularly resistant to infection and death (though we need a larger sample size). If 60-80% infected is needed for herd immunity without taking that into consideration, the actual % needed could be lower.

In either case, NYC is probably at 30%+ infected at this point, which I believe puts us past the tipping point towards herd immunity, and allows us to re-open already without risk of overwhelming hospitals. PAUSE has been devastating to everyday New Yorkers and medium / small businesses. It is ironic that after the Amazon HQ2 fiasco in LIC ("we don't want to subsidize AMZN!" they said), the politicians totaled the economy, with NYC's lockdown doubtlessly partially culpable for pushing AMZN stock to all time highs well above its previous highs.

It is time to end the lockdown, IMO. But also, they should mandate masks to be worn in public at all times.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 07:34:14 PM by bbr2315 »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5912 on: April 23, 2020, 07:30:56 PM »
It seems that 21% of the people in NYC tests positive for the serologies performed. Using 8.5 million as the population of NYC and 15k as the fatalities, that gives and IFR of about 0.85%.


Herd immunity will not be protective enough to depend on it.

link?

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5913 on: April 23, 2020, 07:33:23 PM »
It seems that 21% of the people in NYC tests positive for the serologies performed. Using 8.5 million as the population of NYC and 15k as the fatalities, that gives and IFR of about 0.85%.


Herd immunity will not be protective enough to depend on it.

link?
It was in Cuomo's presser today, idk if there is a link yet.

Also I can't find a source but it has apparently leaked that GILD's Remdesivir is not working as well as we had hoped.

EDIT: source --

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 07:38:35 PM by bbr2315 »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5914 on: April 23, 2020, 07:51:04 PM »
Very important test results:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

We seem to have 1,8 M infected in NY City and 17600 excess death so far, but since many will die later (so there will be more than 20 000 excess deaths), we can safely say that in NY City, mortality will be somewhat above 1%. This is worse than I thought, given that NY City is very young.



NY excess deaths: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5915 on: April 23, 2020, 07:53:36 PM »
New York Antibody Study Estimates 13.9% of Residents Have Had the Coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo Says
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it.

With more than 19.4 million people residents, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state's first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19  pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.

... The antibody testing indicates that the actual death rate is far lower, less than 1%, Cuomo said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5916 on: April 23, 2020, 07:57:14 PM »
You have it all over the news and twitter.Cuomo has said it today.

Well if this is a good "poll", IFR is lower than 0.85% obviously, we just don't know by how much,because "dead are dead" (and NY counts probables too, so there are not as much uncovered deaths as elsewhere), and for many it takes fair amount of time to develop antibodies, few weeks. So the recent asymptomatics, or recently cured without knowing it, are not counted here. How many people got it in the last few weeks, but haven't yet developed antibodies, we don't know.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5917 on: April 23, 2020, 08:33:06 PM »
This still doesn't address the specificity question of the test. What's the test cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses. Maybe a report with methodologies and controls to test for other circulating coronavirus would be useful.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5918 on: April 23, 2020, 08:42:23 PM »
As Virus Advances, Doctors Rethink Rush to Ventilate
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2251PE

------------------------------------------

« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 08:51:02 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5919 on: April 23, 2020, 08:54:03 PM »

Well if this is a good "poll", IFR is lower than 0.85% obviously, we just don't know by how much,

No, IFR is obviously above 1%. Don't forget that

1 ) the death count relates to infected 10-20 days ago. If now you have 1,8 M infected in NY City then there were much lass 2-3 weeks ago!
2) more people will day even from that cohort from the beginning of April


colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5920 on: April 23, 2020, 08:55:05 PM »
This still doesn't address the specificity question of the test. What's the test cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses. Maybe a report with methodologies and controls to test for other circulating coronavirus would be useful.

That's true :), and the reason  why my  first sentence was if it is a good poll  8)

colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5921 on: April 23, 2020, 09:00:50 PM »

Well if this is a good "poll", IFR is lower than 0.85% obviously, we just don't know by how much,

No, IFR is obviously above 1%. Don't forget that

1 ) the death count relates to infected 10-20 days ago. If now you have 1,8 M infected in NY City then there were much lass 2-3 weeks ago!
2) more people will day even from that cohort from the beginning of April

No, what you aresaying about death count is true, but calculation isn't. Deaths are lagging new cases for let's saytwo weeks. But in order to get antibodies it takes to be cured and then few weeks, which together is way more than death lag.

So if this was a new cases survey, then you would be 100%right, but since it ia the antibodies that have been looked for, it goes in a different direction. Time since you get virus-time you die=let's say 15 days. vs Time since you get virus-time you are negative=takes a bit longer in average than to die+ time you develop antibodies= way more than 15 days from the beginning of infection.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5922 on: April 23, 2020, 09:07:02 PM »
This still doesn't address the specificity question of the test. What's the test cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses. Maybe a report with methodologies and controls to test for other circulating coronavirus would be useful.
But it's reasonable to think that two-digit results are less sensitive, not saying they are scientifically unquestionable.

Anyway, this is very much in line with the way I counted actual cases instead of official cases. I assumed twice the number of fatalities (maybe a 1.5 factor is better) then assume a CFR of 1%.

This also sets herd immunity way out of reach, and confirms this is not the flu (and as BK stresses the prognosis for many cases is not certainly the flu, renal failure, strokes, permanent lung capacity loss, etc).

BTW, Vitamin D is important and the lack of it is another pandemic in developed countries. I am not an expert, but wouldn't surprise me that people with VIT D deficiency have a worse COVID prognosis, given the wide array of things  for which it is vital.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5923 on: April 23, 2020, 09:16:49 PM »
Gilead Shares Tumble After Report That Chinese Remdesivir Trial Flopped
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3081325/gilead-shares-tumbles-after-report-chinese

Test results showing drug did not make significant difference in likelihood of death or time patients took to improve were posted then quickly removed by WHO

Gilead and scientist involved in trial dispute how results were interpreted

According to reports from the Financial Times and Stat, the drug, called remdesivir, did not make a significant difference in the amount of time it took patients to improve, or their likelihood of death. A summary of the trial results was posted and quickly removed by the World Health Organisation, according to the publications.



The summary posted by Stat shows results from 237 patients in the trial. Use of the drug was not associated with patients getting better, faster. And 13.9 per cent of patients getting the drug died, versus 12.8 per cent getting standard care, according to the summary. The difference was not statistically significant.

Gilead, in a statement, said that the summary mischaracterises the results of the study, which was stopped early after not enough patients could be found. A study with low enrolment can lead to results that are less conclusive.

Frederick Hayden, an infectious disease expert at the University of Virginia School of Medicine who helped the Chinese doctors conduct the study, disputed the characterisation that the study had failed.

Hayden said there was a mistake in the original manuscript and that it had since been revised. He said that the study was under review at a journal, which he would not identify. and that the authors were still waiting for page proofs. He declined further comment or elaborate until the study was published

The study in question was one of two main trials in China of remdesivir, and looked at patients with severe cases of Covid-19. This group was considered one of the hardest to treat with antiviral drugs, as by the time the disease becomes advanced there may already be significant lung damage.

In addition, the immune system may spin out of control in some patients with advanced disease, a process that antivirals like the Gilead drug will not help with.

The study ran into enrolment difficulties as the epidemic in China slowed down and was not able to get anywhere near the number of patients it had aimed for. This meant the study was likely to show an inconclusive result, unless the drug was massively beneficial or massively harmful.
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5924 on: April 23, 2020, 09:40:27 PM »
It wasn't bbr who first mentioned the vitamin D thing here.

Why African-Americans may be especially vulnerable to COVID-19: Vitamin D!
(Plus socioeconomics: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-why-african-americans-vulnerable-covid-19-health-race )
So, enjoy the sun as long as you can!


Another group to look into is British hospital workers. It seems, of the younger ones who died of Covid-19 many were of darker skin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52242856
Coronavirus: Remembering the NHS workers who have died
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5925 on: April 23, 2020, 10:07:16 PM »
Trump Chloroquine Push Came After Talk With Donor, Source Says
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1190771

... Dr. Rick Bright said he was instructed to implement a national program aimed at expanding access to the drug without proper controls in place and despite the lack of peer-reviewed clinical data on the drug's effectiveness following a conversation Trump had with Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison, the source said.

Ellison sits on the White House economic recovery task force and is one of the president’s top supporters in the tech industry. The billionaire also hosted a big-money fundraiser for Trump at his home in Rancho Mirage, Calif., in February. The New York Times reported on April 6 that “Mr. Trump first expressed interest in hydroxychloroquine a few weeks ago, telling associates that Mr. Ellison, a billionaire and a founder of Oracle, had discussed it with him.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5926 on: April 23, 2020, 10:25:54 PM »
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398325245603840
Trevor Bedford, 1:00 pm April 23, 2020

Thoughts on seroprevalence in NYC. I'm not at all surprised by an estimate of 21% seropositive in NYC as discussed by @NYGovCuomo today (https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253353516803993600). 1/6

I had previously been estimating a case-to-infection reporting ratio of 10-20X (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414308355649536). I can't figure out when this 21% seropositive estimate refers to, but we can do some extremely rough calculations assuming 21% today. 2/6

As of today, NYC has had 145k confirmed cases reported (https://nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). Assuming seroprevalence of 21% gives 1.7M infections in a city population of 8.4M. Dividing 1.7M by 145k gives a reporting ratio of ~12X. 3/6

This reporting ratio of 12X seems entirely within the realm of expectation. If we then take deaths as of today as 17,200 based on excess deaths (https://nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html), we'd get an infection-to-fatality ratio of ~1%. 4/6

This estimate deserves better statistics as there are active infections among the 1.7M that will resolve to deaths in the coming weeks (increasing the numerator) and the true seroprevalence may be greater today than when the study was conducted (increasing the denominator). 5/6

Keep in mind that this infection-to-fatality ratio is heavily dependent on population demographics as well as health system capacity. IFR of ~1% (or more) in NYC may differ from IFR in other locations. 6/6

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253353516803993600
Andrew Cuomo, 10:02 am April 23, 2020

Percent positive by region:

Long Island: 16.7%
NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of state: 3.6%

(Weighted results)

Percent positive by demographic:

Female: 12%
Male: 15.9%

Asian: 11.7%
Black: 22.1%
Latino/Hispanic: 22.5%
Multi/None/Other: 22.8%
White: 9.1%

(Weighted results)
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 10:34:59 PM by sigma_squared »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5927 on: April 23, 2020, 11:21:30 PM »
As Virus Advances, Doctors Rethink Rush to Ventilate
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2251PE

I just saw a similar video from a week ago.



If intubation isn't always the best method, but it is done anyway because of protocol, how many deaths can be ascribed to that protocol?
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5928 on: April 23, 2020, 11:42:37 PM »
Swiss test results (Geneva):

https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation

They estimate 27000 infected and they had 187 dead in the canton of Geneva, it is probably above 200 by now. So IFR estimate based on these numbers is 0,75%


https://www.thelocal.ch/20200418/coronavirus-more-deaths-in-vaud-than-ticino-as-death-toll-continues-to-rise

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5929 on: April 24, 2020, 12:48:40 AM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1253272389602983936
John Burn-Murdoch

Important new study:

Analysis by @PHanlon17, @JonMinton and co estimates more than 10 years of life are lost for each UK Covid death on average, and much more in some cases.

More evidence against "they were going to die soon anyway" line.

Full paper: https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75
COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study
Quote
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19.  As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs.
Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count.
Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).
Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

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"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5931 on: April 24, 2020, 01:24:08 AM »


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062527/

http://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20200422-is-it-possible-the-bcg-vaccine-protect-against-the-new-coronavirus

I think this is legit ^ it is not totally preventative but in combo with masks and not-bad-weather it is very helpful. All three = minimal outbreak. A friend sent this link, and it makes sense.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5932 on: April 24, 2020, 02:18:54 AM »
The Washington Post article below from a week ago compares deaths due to Covid-19 with other causes in the US.

Using data from The Covid Tracking Project (https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily), weekly deaths rose from 12,365 for the week of April 6 - 12 to 13,874 for the week of April 13 - 19, making Covid-19 the leading cause of death in the US, compared to five year averages for other causes. Flu and pneumonia, by comparison, average 1,227 per week, or 10 times lower.

As others have noted, this rate may have plateaued, but I see no sign of it dropping at present. If Covid-19 deaths continue at 1,500 - 2,000 per day, they will exceed 61,100, the total for the unusually severe 2017-2018 influenza season, on May 2, nine days from now.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/
Covid-19 is rapidly becoming America’s leading cause of death
How does the coronavirus compare to other major causes of death in an average week?

In just weeks, covid-19 deaths have snowballed from a few isolated cases to thousands across the country each day.

The U.S. surgeon general had warned that last week would be like Pearl Harbor as he attempted to create context for the threat — but it turned out that more than five times as many Americans died from covid-19 last week than were killed in the World War II raid.

You can grasp the scale when you compare a single week’s pandemic deaths with how many people die of major causes in a typical week.

[First figure]

In early and mid-March, when America began widespread closures, quarantines and social distancing, covid-19 caused many fewer deaths than other common causes — fewer in a week than chronic liver disease or high blood pressure, and far fewer than suicide or the common flu. By the end of March, the toll was closer to the average weekly deaths from diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. Into April, weekly covid-19 deaths climbed past those from accidents and chronic lower respiratory disease. And last week, covid-19 killed more people than normally die of cancer in this country in a week. Only heart disease was likely to kill more people that week.

[Second figure]

Covid-19 is not killing at the same pace everywhere: In the worst-hit areas, it is killing at an unparalleled rate.

The weekly total of covid-19 deaths in New York state and New York City has dwarfed the scale of normal causes of death — explaining why hospitals are struggling to cope. And although the outbreaks in other cities aren’t as bad, Louisiana and the District of Columbia also had more covid-19 deaths than any typical cause of death last week. In places that started social distancing and restrictions on businesses earlier, the deaths per week are lower: Washington state suffered an early burst of the disease, but covid-19 did not kill as many people there last week as in other hot spots.

[Third figure]
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 02:33:32 AM by sigma_squared »

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5933 on: April 24, 2020, 04:30:55 AM »
As Virus Advances, Doctors Rethink Rush to Ventilate
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2251PE

I just saw a similar video from a week ago.

If intubation isn't always the best method, but it is done anyway because of protocol, how many deaths can be ascribed to that protocol?

Looks like new ventilator guidelines are emerging.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-analysis-recommends-less-reliance-on-ventilators/
New analysis recommends less reliance on ventilators to treat coronavirus patients
Quote
By using ventilators more sparingly on Covid-19 patients, physicians could reduce the more-than-50% death rate for those put on the machines, according to an analysis published Tuesday in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

The authors argue that physicians need a new playbook for when to use ventilators for Covid-19 patients — a message consistent with new treatment guidelines issued Tuesday by the National Institutes of Health, which advocates a phased approach to breathing support that would defer the use of ventilators if possible.

https://www.ajtmh.org/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0283
Respiratory Support in Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Patients, with a Focus on Resource-Limited Settings
Quote
Abstract: The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is threatening the global human population, including in countries with resource-limited health facilities. Severe bilateral pneumonia is the main feature of severe COVID-19, and adequate ventilatory support is crucial for patient survival. Although our knowledge of the disease is still rapidly increasing, this review summarizes current guidance on the best provision of ventilatory support, with a focus on resource-limited settings. Key messages include that supplemental oxygen is a first essential step for the treatment of severe COVID-19 patients with hypoxemia and should be a primary focus in resource-limited settings where capacity for invasive ventilation is limited. Oxygen delivery can be increased by using a non-rebreathing mask and prone positioning. The presence of only hypoxemia should in general not trigger intubation because hypoxemia is often remarkably well tolerated. Patients with fatigue and at risk for exhaustion, because of respiratory distress, will require invasive ventilation. In these patients, lung protective ventilation is essential. Severe pneumonia in COVID-19 differs in some important aspects from other causes of severe pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome, and limiting the positive end-expiratory pressure level on the ventilator may be important. This ventilation strategy might reduce the currently very high case fatality rate of more than 50% in invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5934 on: April 24, 2020, 04:52:09 AM »
This still doesn't address the specificity question of the test. What's the test cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses. Maybe a report with methodologies and controls to test for other circulating coronavirus would be useful.

The New York study used antibody testing from the Wadsworth Centre, the state Department of Health Lab:


https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/04/updated-13102-nysdoh-wadsworth-centers-assay-for-sars-cov-2-igg.pdf

They don't publish their verification tests, but I have more confidence in them that I do in a non-FDA approved commercial product, as used by the Stanford group in Santa Clara and Los Angeles.

This tweet shows that the commercial product used in Chelsea MA was validated at Mass General Hospital:
https://twitter.com/TylerEMiller/status/1252372447283699714
Quote
Importantly, our #ClinicalPathology group at MGH had done extensive validation on the assay we used in this study. It was both sensitive (picked up antibodies if there) and specific (very rare false positives) in the large cohorts of validated samples we tested.

The German antibody testing seems exemplary, in terms of validated tests, randomized sampling and systematic follow up. I hope they publish something, but wouldn't expect it until the results are scientifically irreproachable.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/europe/with-broad-random-tests-for-antibodies-germany-seeks-path-out-of-lockdown.html
With Broad, Random Tests for Antibodies, Germany Seeks Path Out of Lockdown
It was the first large Western democracy to contain the spread of the coronavirus and is now the first to methodically go about reopening its economy. Others are watching.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 06:03:30 AM by sigma_squared »

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5935 on: April 24, 2020, 07:40:13 AM »
That pdf describing the wadsworth test is quite good. One bit that struck me is that the test is reasonably robust against crossreactivity

" Note: A reactive result may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 strains. However, specificity for the Wadsworth Center (WC) SARS-CoV-2 IgG test has been determined to be 93 to 100%. Therefore, significant cross-reactivity to other known respiratory viruses is not expected. "

sidd

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5936 on: April 24, 2020, 08:54:09 AM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1253272389602983936
John Burn-Murdoch

Important new study:

Analysis by @PHanlon17, @JonMinton and co estimates more than 10 years of life are lost for each UK Covid death on average, and much more in some cases.

More evidence against "they were going to die soon anyway" line.

How does this compare to YLL due to influenza during a severe outbreak? It might be good to keep in mind that a lot more children die due to influenza than SARS-CoV-2.

What is the impact on general life expectancy for the entire population, compared to other diseases and environmental factors like air pollution?

In other words, what is the context? Or should I just be afraid?
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sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5937 on: April 24, 2020, 11:02:15 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-conservative-networks-backing-anti-quarantine-protests/2020/04/22/da75c81e-83fe-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html
The anti-quarantine protests seem spontaneous. But behind the scenes, a powerful network is helping.
The ads on Facebook sounded populist and passionate: “The people are rising up against these insane shutdowns,” they said. “We’re fighting back to demand that our elected officials reopen America.”

But the posts, funded by an initiative called Convention of States, were not the product of a grass-roots uprising alone. Instead, they represented one salvo in a wide-ranging and well-financed conservative campaign to undermine restrictions that medical experts say are necessary to contain the coronavirus — but that protesters call overkill and whose economic fallout could damage President Trump’s political prospects.

A network of right-leaning individuals and groups, aided by nimble online outfits, has helped incubate the fervor erupting in state capitals across the country. The activism is often organic and the frustration deeply felt, but it is also being amplified, and in some cases coordinated, by longtime conservative activists, whose robust operations were initially set up with help from Republican megadonors.

The Convention of States project launched in 2015 with a high-dollar donation from the family foundation of Robert Mercer, a billionaire hedge fund manager and Republican patron. It boasts past support from two members of the Trump administration — Ken Cuccinelli, acting director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and Ben Carson, secretary of housing and urban development. ...

The initiative, aimed at curtailing federal power, is now leveraging its sweeping national network and digital arsenal to help stitch together scattered demonstrations across the country, making opposition to stay-at-home orders appear more widespread than is suggested by polling.

“We’re providing a digital platform for people to plan and communicate about what they’re doing,” said Eric O’Keefe, board president of Citizens for Self-Governance, the parent organization of the Convention of States project.

A longtime associate of the conservative activist Koch family, O’Keefe helped manage David Koch’s 1980 bid for the White House when he served as the No. 2 on the Libertarian ticket.

“To shut down our rural counties because of what’s going on in New York City, or in some sense Milwaukee, is draconian,” said O’Keefe, who lives in Wisconsin.

Polls suggest most Americans support local directives encouraging them to stay at home as covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, ravages the country, killing more than 44,000 people in the United States so far. Public health officials, including epidemiologists advising Trump’s White House, agree that sweeping restrictions represent the most effective mitigation strategy in the absence of a vaccine, which could be more than a year away. ...

Meckler, who draws a salary of about $250,000 from the Convention of States parent group, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization, according to filings with the Internal Revenue Service, hailed the “spontaneous citizen groups self-organizing on the Internet and protesting what they perceive to be government overreach.”

So far, the protests against stay-at-home orders in states including Washington and Pennsylvania have captured headlines and drawn rebukes from some governors and epidemiologists. Experts say a sudden, widespread reopening of the country is likely to worsen the outbreak, overwhelming hospitals and killing tens of thousands. ...

While groups and individual activists associated with the Koch brothers have boosted this far-flung network, Emily Seidel, the chief executive of the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity advocacy group, sought to distance the organization from the protest activity, which she said was “not the best way” to “get people back to work.”

“Instead, we are working directly with policymakers, to bring business leaders and public health officials together to help develop standards to safely reopen the economy without jeopardizing public health,” Seidel said.

But others see linkages to groups pushing anti-quarantine uprisings.

“The involvement of the Koch institutional apparatus in groups supporting these protests is clear to me,” said Robert J. Brulle, a sociologist at Drexel University whose research has focused on climate lobbying. “The presence of allies on the board usually means that they are deeply engaged in the organization and most likely a funder.”

Brulle said the blowback against the coronavirus precautions carries echoes of efforts to deny climate change, both of which rely on hostility toward government action.

“These are extreme right-wing efforts to delegitimize government,” he said. “It’s an anti-government crusade.”


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5938 on: April 24, 2020, 11:03:58 AM »
Trump is now suggesting suicide (no kidding)!

Coronavirus: Outcry after Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment

Link >> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5939 on: April 24, 2020, 11:10:44 AM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5940 on: April 24, 2020, 11:38:11 AM »
Fixed the headline:

Coronavirus: Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment to provoke outcry
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5941 on: April 24, 2020, 11:54:16 AM »
What's the difference, Neven?

There will be kids out there getting 'treated' with bleach by their parents because the charlatan president told them to do so. This is not a joke, this is actually happening. And they are not doing it to cause outrage. They really think it works.

I don't care why Trump is doing this, but he is actively killing people by doing such shit.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5942 on: April 24, 2020, 12:05:26 PM »
This is unexpected!

Smokers 'four times less likely' to contract Covid-19, prompting nicotine patch trials on patients

Quote
Researchers in France will test nicotine patches on health workers and patients but reiterated smoking could also cause more severe illness

Link >> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/smokers-four-times-less-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/

Paper >> https://www.qeios.com/read/article/581
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5943 on: April 24, 2020, 12:48:44 PM »
Fixed the headline:

Coronavirus: Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment to provoke outcry

Shock News!!!!

I've finally found a comment of Andrew Neil's on Twatter that I agree with:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1253608906191970304

Quote
This is funny. And scary.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5944 on: April 24, 2020, 12:50:13 PM »
Watch People Die Inside:

Dr. Birx's reaction when President Trump asks his science advisor to study using UV light on the human body and injecting disinfectant to fight the coronavirus.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/WatchPeopleDieInside/comments/g6z08y/dr_birxs_reaction_when_president_trump_asks_his/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5945 on: April 24, 2020, 12:51:28 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5946 on: April 24, 2020, 01:54:38 PM »
Fixed the headline:

Coronavirus: Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment to provoke outcry

Looks more like a genuine stream of consciousness. Who ever heard of "Miracle Mineral Supplement" will find the stupidity unsurprising :)



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Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5947 on: April 24, 2020, 02:52:16 PM »
Two male doctors of over 50 years old dead in Finland, thus, two other male doctors suggest older male doctors should not treat people with CoViD-19. This really seems to bring out some rather odd views. Infections rising now at bit over 100/day. Schools are still closed, but some vocal proponents are suggesting a cautious increase in contagion to get nearer to a herd immunity. This is probably partly based on the suggestions stating virus is already widespread and little to no symptomatic 'carriers' of the virus are a vast majority of people infected.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5948 on: April 24, 2020, 03:18:52 PM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1253272389602983936
John Burn-Murdoch

Important new study:

Analysis by @PHanlon17, @JonMinton and co estimates more than 10 years of life are lost for each UK Covid death on average, and much more in some cases.

More evidence against "they were going to die soon anyway" line.

How does this compare to YLL due to influenza during a severe outbreak? It might be good to keep in mind that a lot more children die due to influenza than SARS-CoV-2.

What is the impact on general life expectancy for the entire population, compared to other diseases and environmental factors like air pollution?

In other words, what is the context? Or should I just be afraid?

Good Point!  I never thought of it in that regards.  The death of a child has a much greater impact on the general life expectancy than the death of an elderly person.  In many places (especially the U.S.), we go to great extents to keep people alive.  Perhaps, this is just natures way of culling our population.  While this may sound callous to some, it is the way of the world for every other species.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #5949 on: April 24, 2020, 03:22:26 PM »
You should be very, very afraid:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1253580354952335360

I try not to let fear occupy my mind too much, but I find this stuff  more frightening than the assumptions about the 'silent, stealthy killer'. That's what the Lessons thread is also about.

I also try not to let Trump occupy my mind too much (bad for brain capacity), but that disinfectant video with the lady was very funny.
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