Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 195183 times)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6700 on: May 20, 2020, 08:05:24 AM »
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 08:19:58 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3912
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1362
  • Likes Given: 2139
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6701 on: May 20, 2020, 09:08:59 AM »
Thanks, blum. I'm assuming that John Hopkins is probably more accurate, but maybe not updated as often as worldometer?

Yes, i think so, Wili. They only show data from the day before.
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3912
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1362
  • Likes Given: 2139
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6702 on: May 20, 2020, 09:12:59 AM »

Quote
Sikora and the School of Medicine at Buckingham have in the past been supportive of alternative medicine.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karol_Sikora
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8102
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2819
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6703 on: May 20, 2020, 11:32:48 AM »
When the Head of State becomes "a clear and present danger"?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/drug-promoted-by-trump-as-coronavirus-game-changer-increasingly-linked-to-deaths/2020/05/15/85d024fe-96bd-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html

Drug promoted by Trump as coronavirus ‘game changer’ increasingly linked to deaths

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 655
  • Likes Given: 194
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6704 on: May 20, 2020, 07:18:43 PM »
First results from ongoing study of antibodies to covid-19 virus

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/

Quote
The analyzes for week 18 (a total of 1,104 analyzed samples) show, as expected, the largest proportion of positive antibody tests in Stockholm. A total of 7.3 percent of the blood samples collected from people in Stockholm were positive in the antibody study, which can be compared with a total of 4.2 percent in Skåne and 3.7 percent in Västra Götaland.


Given the great discipline the people of Sweden have shown, why not go all-in for a couple of weeks, bring the numbers way down, contact trace, and wait for the vaccine. The outcome is almost the same except that you may save what, 30k lives?

Herd immunity is just letting the disease win. Why let it win with such a powerful society?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 10:37:37 PM by Archimid »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2315

  • New ice
  • Posts: 79
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6705 on: May 20, 2020, 08:23:03 PM »
First results from ongoing study of antibodies to covid-19 virus

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/

Quote
The analyzes for week 18 (a total of 1,104 analyzed samples) show, as expected, the largest proportion of positive antibody tests in Stockholm. A total of 7.3 percent of the blood samples collected from people in Stockholm were positive in the antibody study, which can be compared with a total of 4.2 percent in Skåne and 3.7 percent in Västra Götaland.


Sweden given the great discipline the people of Sweden have shown, why not go all-in for a couple of weeks, bring the numbers way down contact trace, and wait for the vaccine. The outcome is almost the same except that you may save what, 30k lives?

Herd immunity is just letting the disease win. Why let it win with such a powerful society?
Your posts on this issue are hysterical. But they are not as bad as the ones rejecting Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment and / or prophylactic, as many others are now doing. Biden had an interview where he compared Hydroxychloroquine as prophylactic to injecting yourself with bleach.

The media said the flu was worse. The media said masks didn't work. The media said a flight ban on China was racist. The media said we had nothing to worry about. The media said masks are necessary but only for healthcare providers. The media said the world is ending and we must all stay inside forever checking the media all day long.

You get my point. The fake news has gotten worse and worse and at this point it is obviously just for ratings and / or to PROLONG the crisis and make things as terrible as possible. For views and ad dollars.

Herd immunity is not a bad thing. It is the most viable option. We may have estimated the % necessary too high, as well, if certain professions / highly-interactive people are the ones most infected in the herald wave, it can limit the % needed for herd immunity even further. I.E., if everyone who stays home most of the time and is generally socially inactive doesn't get the virus, but those who are active DO get the virus, any resurgence is going to have a hard time making it beyond specific clusters barring a massive increase in r-0 (I.E. seasonal vit D deficiency's reappearance around 10/1). Even that may be insufficient for a true second wave in a place like NYC where it seems about a third have been infected.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6706 on: May 20, 2020, 11:56:19 PM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6707 on: May 20, 2020, 11:56:43 PM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Freegrass

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 738
  • Envy is the thief of joy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 286
  • Likes Given: 355
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6708 on: May 21, 2020, 01:07:25 AM »

So that's why I never got infected...  :o

Can I make a "Cannabis can save the world" thread Neven?
Cannabis is cleaning up nuclear radiation in Chernobyl, and building houses with it would store carbon for millions of years while houses would only get stronger...

I can believe there's no cannabis thread here yet...  >:(

And no, I'm not handing out "free" grass! I think we should "free the weed"...
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 01:16:16 AM by Freegrass »
Great minds discuss ideas
Average minds discuss events
Small minds discuss people

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6709 on: May 21, 2020, 02:34:14 AM »
Brazil to Expand Use of Chloroquine Against COVID-19
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html

The administration of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Wednesday unveiled new measures to expand use of chloroquine, the predecessor of an anti-malaria drug promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump as a treatment for COVID-19.

The new guidelines were approved by Gen. Eduardo Pazuello (... the one with no health experience), who became interim Health Minister after his predecessor was fired five days ago. Pazuello had no health experience until he became the ministry’s No 2 official in April.

-----------------------------

Brazil Recommends Chloroquine to Treat Even Mild Cases

Brazil's health ministry has recommended using chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat even mild cases of COVID-19, treatments President Jair Bolsonaro has pushed for despite a lack of conclusive evidence of their effectiveness.

New federal guidelines released by the ministry recommend doctors prescribe the anti-malarial drugs from the onset of symptoms of coronavirus infection, together with the antibiotic azithromycin.

Patients will be required to sign a waiver acknowledging they have been informed of potential side effects, including heart and liver dysfunction, retina damage "and even death."



-----------------------------

... like Flintstones Chewable Morphine or ....



-----------------------------

Brazil Records 888 New Coronavirus Deaths, Nearly 20,000 New Cases

Brazil registered 888 new coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, with a record of nearly 20,000 new cases, taking the total to 291,579, the Health Ministry said.

------------------------------

Peru's confirmed coronavirus cases surpass 100,000 - health ministry

Peru's number of confirmed coronavirus cases surpassed 100,000, the Ministry of Health reported.

There are 104,020 confirmed cases in the South American country, which has been under nationwide lockdown since March, and the death toll rose to 3,024, the ministry said.

---------------------------------

Bolivia Health Minister Arrested for Corruption Over Ventilators: Police Chief

Bolivia's Health Minister Marcelo Navajas has been arrested on suspicion of corruption related to the over-priced purchase of coronavirus ventilators, the police chief said on Wednesday.

Navajas was detained by police in La Paz, Colonel Ivan Rojas said, a day after interim President Jeanine Anez ordered an investigation into possible corruption.

---------------------------------

Regional Health Body Warns of Spread In Amazon Tri-Border Area

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has warned that the new coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the tri-border area of the Amazon between Brazil, Colombia and Peru and threatens to infect remote indigenous communities in the rainforest.

PAHO directors urged in a virtual briefing that special measures be taken to protect vulnerable groups among the poor and indigenous populations of the Americas.

They said contagion was rising fast in densely populated Amazon border cities such as Manaus, Leticia and Iquitos, and the greatest danger is the COVID-19 spreading now to isolated villages.

----------------------------------

Medical evacuations of Indigenous people in Amazon with COVID-19

The coronavirus is spreading so fast among Indigenous people in the most remote parts of Brazil's Amazon rainforest that doctors are having to evacuate the most seriously-ill patients by plane.

"It's the last opportunity to save their lives," Edson Santos Rodrigues, a paediatric doctor working on medevac plans in Amazonas told Reuters News Agency. "Sometimes we don't get there in time because we cannot land at night on remote airfields that have no lights."

Brazil's Indigenous health service, Sesai, reported on Monday that at least 23 Indigenous people had died from COVID-19. The country's main tribal umbrella group APIB, which counts cases among Indigenous people who have moved to the cities, reported 103 confirmed deaths on Monday - up from 18 on April 3.

---------------------------------

Nicaragua's 'Express  Burials' Hide True COVID-19 Scale: Doctors
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/nicaragua-express-burials-hide-true-covid-19-scale-doctors-200519145757104.html

Doctors are warning of looming coronavirus chaos in Nicaragua, where victims' families and the opposition accuse President Daniel Ortega's government of ordering "express burials" to hide the true number of infections.

To date, the Central American country has confirmed just 25 cases of the coronavirus and eight deaths. But rights groups and experts believe the numbers are far higher.

"We are entering a phase of rapid community spread of the virus," epidemiologist Alvaro Ramirez told the AFP news agency. "As the exponential curve continues to increase and more people become infected, we are going to get a chaotic situation."

---------------------------------

Number of Cases in Russia Surpasses 300,000

Russia reported 8,764 new cases, its lowest daily rise since May 2, taking the total number of documented infections to 308,705.

The country's coronavirus response centre said 135 people had died in the past 24 hours, taking the death toll from the virus to 2,972.

-------------------------------

Russia Sets Up Quarantine Facility In Siberia

The Russian military has set up a quarantine facility at a Siberian gold mine where hundreds have been infected with the novel coronavirus.

The Olimpiada mine in the town of Yeruda has emerged as a top spot of contagion, with more than 800 workers testing positive for COVID-19. The new facility can accommodate as many as 2,000 patients.

Russia has ranked second behind the United States in the number of infections, with more than 300,000 coronavirus cases.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 07:04:55 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6710 on: May 21, 2020, 02:38:46 AM »
Monkey Studies Encouraging for Coronavirus Vaccine
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html

Two studies in monkeys offer some of the first scientific evidence that surviving COVID-19 may result in immunity from reinfection, as well as a positive sign that vaccines under development may succeed.

In one of the new studies, researchers infected nine monkeys with the new coronavirus. After they recovered, the team exposed them to the virus again and the animals did not get sick.

In the second study, the same researchers treated 25 monkeys with experimental vaccines and then exposed them to the coronavirus. In the vaccinated animals, "we saw a substantial degree of protection," said Dr Dan Barouch

Abishek Chandrashekar et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection protects against rechallenge in rhesus macaques. Science  20 May 2020:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc4776

Jingyou Yu et al. DNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 in rhesus macaques, Science  20 May 2020:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6284

----------------------------------

Hamster Tests Show Masks Reduce Coronavirus Spread: Scientists
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-hamster-masks-coronavirus-scientists.html

---------------------------------

Leaked Pentagon Memo Warns of 'Real Possibility' of COVID-19 Resurgence, Vaccine Not Coming Until Summer 2021
https://www.defenseone.com/news/2020/05/the-d-brief-may-20-2020/165531/
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-pentagon-memo

Pending advice to the Defense Department: Dig in. U.S. military leaders are reportedly “planning for the possibility that the services could be contending with coronavirus until well into next year,” Military Times reports off a leaked draft Pentagon memo obtained by Task & Purpose on Tuesday.

"We have a long path ahead, with the real possibility of a resurgence of COVID-19," reads the memo, "authored"  for Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, by Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security, but not yet bearing his signature — yet.

Recall that SecDef Esper promised Friday at the White House, “Winning matters, and we will deliver, by the end of this year, a vaccine at scale to treat the American people and our partners abroad.”

“All indications suggest we will be operating in a globally-persistent COVID-19 environment in the months ahead,” the memo reads, according to T&P. And that includes the “real possibility” that a vaccine won’t be available until “at least the summer of 2021.”
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 03:33:48 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6711 on: May 21, 2020, 04:16:12 AM »
Covid-19 Has Cut the Life Expectancy of New Yorkers by 5 Years, Report Estimates
https://gizmodo.com/covid-19-has-cut-the-life-expectancy-of-new-yorkers-by-1843571085

A report released Wednesday provides some early insight into the damage covid-19 has already wrought on one of the hardest-hit regions: New York City. It concludes that the first wave of the outbreak has shaved five years off the life expectancy of NYC residents.

https://preventepidemics.org/covid19/science/insights/life-expectancy-in-new-york-city/

To come up with its estimate, the report’s authors first looked at excess deaths reported in New York City between March and May of this year, meaning deaths above the average baseline reported in previous recent years.

The authors tried to calculate the impact that these excess deaths, up until May 14, have had on the life expectancy of New Yorkers, using the latest 2017 figures. That year, life expectancy for someone born in New York City was estimated to be 81.2 years. But the outbreak, the authors estimated, has led to a drop in life expectancy of five years.

“This should be seen as a preliminary estimate of the potential scale of the impact as there will be more deaths due to covid-19, our methods were simple and the limited amount of publicly available data required us to make many assumptions,” the authors wrote.

... Past massive outbreaks of disease, like the 1918-1919 pandemic flu and outbreaks of HIV in Africa, have similarly led to temporary drops in life expectancy, the authors noted.

Some people, including politicians and health officials, have argued or implied that those dying from covid-19 were already in poor health and unlikely to live for much longer anyway. Leaving aside the cruelty of devaluing a person’s life based on their age or health, that probably isn’t even true: Studies have tried to estimate the average years of life lost to covid-19, finding that people who were killed by the disease may have typically have lived up to a decade longer.

----------------------------------

Critical Illness Common In New York COVID-19 Inpatients: Study
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/05/critical-illness-common-new-york-covid-19-inpatients-study

Of 1,150 COVID-19 adult patients hospitalized in New York City from Mar 2 to Apr 1, 257 (22%) were critically ill, and 101 (39%) of them died, according to the largest known US prospective study of coronavirus patients.

In the prospective cohort study, published yesterday in The Lancet, researchers from Columbia University and two affiliated NewYork-Presbyterian Hospitals in Manhattan reviewed electronic medical records and lab and radiographic findings of COVID-19 patients in respiratory failure.

The most common symptoms of the 257 patients included shortness of breath, fever, cough, muscle pain, and diarrhea. Median time from symptom onset to hospitalization was 5 days; black, Hispanic, and Latino patients sought care later in their illness than white patients. Ninety-four (37%) of the patients were still hospitalized as of Apr 28. Median observation period after hospitalization was 19 days.

Fifty-nine (62%) were Hispanic or Latino, and 13 (5%) were healthcare personnel. Of the total, 82% had one or more underlying illness, the most common of which were high blood pressure (162 [63%]) and diabetes (92 [36%]); 119 (46%) were obese, including 39 (71%) of 55 patients younger than 50 years.

Of the 257 patients, 203 patients (79%) required mechanical ventilation for a median of 18 days, 170 (66%) received vasopressors for low blood pressure, and 79 (31%) needed dialysis.

Median time to clinical deterioration after hospitalization was 3 days. Using the multivariable Cox model, the authors determined that advanced age, chronic heart disease, chronic lung disease, and elevated levels of inflammatory marker interleukin-6 (IL-6) and the blood clot indicator D-dimer were independently associated with in-hospital death.

Median age was 62 years, and 171 of 257 (67%) were men.

The vast majority of patients (229 of 257 [89%] received antibiotics, and 208 (81%) were prescribed antiviral drugs: 185 (72%) were given hydroxychloroquine, and 23 (9%) received remdesivir. Sixty-eight (26%) patients received corticosteroids, and 44 (17%) were given IL-6 receptor antagonists for inflammation.

... The study helps characterize the effect of COVID-19 on critically ill patients.

"Of particular interest is the finding that over three quarters of critically ill patients required a ventilator and almost one third required renal dialysis support," he said. "This has important implications for resource allocation in hospitals, where access to equipment and specialised staff needed to deliver this level of care is limited."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2/fulltext
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6712 on: May 21, 2020, 08:23:26 AM »
Epidemic To 'Die Out On Its Own' in Denmark, For Now
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-epidemic-die-denmark.html

Only 1% of Danes have contracted the coronavirus, a new study of virus antibodies has shown, raising concerns that Denmark is vulnerable to a new wave of the deadly infection. The report was released Wednesday by the Danish health agency SSI, a branch of the Health Ministry and the agency responsible for the surveillance of infectious diseases.

Of 2,600 randomly selected Danes, 1,071 had agreed to be tested for coronavirus antibodies. Only 12 test subjects tested positive, correlating to 1.1% of all subjects. SSI said the results were preliminary and that it was difficult to say at this point whether the results were representative of the Danish population as a whole.

Responding to the study, experts said the results were a cause for concern. "At the collective level we have no resilience, and that means there is a potential for epidemic spread again," Jens Lundgren, professor of infectious diseases at one of Denmark's largest hospitals Rigshospitalet, said in an interview with broadcaster DR.

As of Wednesday, Denmark had 11,117 confirmed coronavirus infections, resulting in 554 deaths thus far.

This week, Denmark moved ahead with further easing of restrictions put in place to slow the spread of the virus. Danish middle schools reopened on Monday, over a month after classes for pre-schools and the youngest primary school children resumed. Museums, movie theaters, and zoos are due to reopen soon.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6713 on: May 21, 2020, 09:46:54 AM »
Trump Administration Purchases Mask-Cleaning Machines That May Damage Masks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/trump-administration-paying-huge-premium-for-mask-cleaning-machines-that-dont-do-the-job.html

After President Donald Trump pressured the Food and Drug Administration to waive certain rules, his administration was able to purchase mask-cleaning machines in a deal that ballooned from a $60 million price tag to one with a ceiling of $600 million.

Not only did the deal costs explode, but the cleaning process used by the machines to sanitize the masks may actually damage them and prevent them from being reused.The machines were supposed to allow masks to be reused up to 20 times through sanitizing treatments. However, scientists and nurses say that masks cleaned by the machines began to degrade after two or three treatments, putting them at risk.

“They keep saying these recycled masks are still safe after all these cycles, but we don’t know that,” said a nurse in Pennsylvania, whose hospital has used the machines. “What we do know is that there are not enough masks for medical workers and there are very real consequences if we get sick.”

----------------------------

Fed Officials Worry About Second Wave of Infections
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/fed-minutes-released.html

Minutes from the April Federal Reserve meeting show central banks concerned with longer-ranging impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. The meeting summary showed that officials were particularly concerned about a second wave of infections.]/B] In addition, they noted that the impacts of the economic slump, which looks to be the worst single-quarter drop in U.S. history, will fall on those least able to take the hit. They also said rate cuts and liquidity and lending programs were “crucial for limiting the severity” of the downturn.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4510
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 416
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6714 on: May 21, 2020, 10:04:49 AM »
Social distancing as practised here in sunny South West England:

https://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-in-south-west-england/#comment-121
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3912
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1362
  • Likes Given: 2139
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6715 on: May 21, 2020, 11:42:22 AM »
A very good read about how the virus spreads.

Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?

Quote
“If you can predict what circumstances are giving rise to these events, the math shows you can really, very quickly curtail the ability of the disease to spread,” says Jamie Lloyd-Smith of the University of California, Los Angeles, who has studied the spread of many pathogens. But superspreading events are ill-understood and difficult to study, and the findings can lead to heartbreak and fear of stigma in patients who touch them off.

...

“But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

...

That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.

...

Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others

...

Some situations may be particularly risky. Meatpacking plants are likely vulnerable because many people work closely together in spaces where low temperature helps the virus survive. But it may also be relevant that they tend to be loud places, Knight says.

...

 “Maybe slow, gentle breathing is not a risk factor, but heavy, deep, or rapid breathing and shouting is.”

...

Timing also plays a role. Emerging evidence suggests COVID-19 patients are most infectious for a short period of time. Entering a high-risk setting in that period may touch off a superspreading event, Kucharski says; “Two days later, that person could behave in the same way and you wouldn’t see the same outcome.”

...

Link >> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all#
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 330
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6716 on: May 21, 2020, 12:06:31 PM »
The title is a bit click-baity, but the content is interesting and relevant:


‘It’s something I have never seen’: How the Covid-19 virus hijacks cells
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-hijacks-cells-in-unique-ways/

"Recent studies show that in seizing control of genes in the human cells it invades, the virus changes how segments of DNA are read, doing so in a way that might explain why the elderly are more likely to die of Covid-19 and why antiviral drugs might not only save sick patients’ lives but also prevent severe disease if taken before infection...
"they found that within three days of infection, the virus induces cells’ call-for-reinforcement genes to produce cytokines. But it blocks their call-to-arms genes — the interferons that dampen the virus’ replication.
"The result is essentially no brakes on the virus’s replication, but a storm of inflammatory molecules in the lungs, which is what tenOever calls an “unique” and “aberrant” consequence of how SARS-CoV-2 manipulates the genome of its target."

The implication is that administering interferons early in the course of infection may be effective.  There are already clinical trials in progress with interferons, with encouraging animal studies already done.

My sense is that a vaccine will arrive too late to help most, but effective anti-viral treatments may be rolled out much sooner.   It may be essential that antivirals be started early in the course of disease (likely to those with risk factors for a bad outcome only).  Interferons do produce flu-like symptoms, so you wouldn't want to administer these injections to those at little risk of a bad outcome.

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 383
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6717 on: May 21, 2020, 12:33:19 PM »
Can I make a "Cannabis can save the world" thread Neven?
Cannabis is cleaning up nuclear radiation in Chernobyl, and building houses with it would store carbon for millions of years while houses would only get stronger...



Dont' want to ruin your fun, but the above are examples of using industrial hemp which contains hardly any THC or CBD. And it is perfectly legal in most countries. It was used to make clothes and ropes in the Middle Ages

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 358
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6718 on: May 21, 2020, 01:52:48 PM »
There's a lot of confusion around HCQ.
A few studies that focus on administering the drug early during the disease progression, find very positive effects and the known side effects (rarely dangerous). But then the MSM, focused on shaming Trump, argue that, if the cases were not severe, why bother? Which is a very dumb (malicious) argument.
Then the studies where the drug is given late when patient issue is no longer viral reproduction but inflammation and coagulation due to body response. Adding HCQ is, obviously, less useful (antiviral effect is secondary) and more dangerous given the state of patient.
Why do they do that? Who benefits? Expensive antivirals pharma maybe? Democrats and Republicans alike behind these big pharma? Hospitals benefiting from pushing expensive pills rather than HCQ?

When the Head of State becomes "a clear and present danger"?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/drug-promoted-by-trump-as-coronavirus-game-changer-increasingly-linked-to-deaths/2020/05/15/85d024fe-96bd-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html

Drug promoted by Trump as coronavirus ‘game changer’ increasingly linked to deaths


vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6719 on: May 21, 2020, 02:06:33 PM »
Ousted Scientist Says She Was Asked to Manipulate Florida COVID-19 Data
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/05/ousted-scientist-says-she-was-asked-to-manipulate-florida-covid-19-data/

As Florida tries to move past the COVID-19 crisis and reopen businesses and venues, the former manager of the state's novel coronavirus data project alleges she was fired for refusing to cook the numbers and make the state look better.

Rebekah Jones said Friday she was removed from her position, local outlet Florida Today was the first to report.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/18/censorship-covid-19-data-researcher-removed-florida-moves-re-open-state/5212398002/

Jones built and managed the COVID-19 data dashboard for the state from March until May 5. Last week, she explained that for "reasons beyond my division's control," her office lost all connection to the portal, and neither she nor her team was any longer involved with it, its data, its publication, or answering questions.

"They are making a lot of changes. I would advise being diligent in your respective uses of this data," she wrote last Friday in a message to researchers and collaborators on the dashboard project. She added, "I would not expect the new team to continue the same level of accessibility and transparency that I made central to the process during the first two months. After all, my commitment to both is largely (arguably entirely) the reason I am no longer managing it."

Late Monday, Jones said she was not only removed from her position heading up the dashboard team but was fired from her job entirely because she refused to juke the stats. In an email to local outlet CBS12, Jones said she lost her position because she refused "to manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen" the state.

Other states have also faced allegations of manipulating data related to the novel coronavirus to make conditions appear more favorable. The Atlantic reported at length last week on data collection in Virginia, for example, where state health officials were combining data from two different kinds of COVID-19 test in a way that made the result look more favorable to the public. (The state has since discontinued the practice.)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/covid-19-tests-combine-virginia/611620/

Last last week, officials in Georgia, which has also been rapidly reopening businesses, faced criticism for publishing a deeply misleading bar chart that appeared to show a decline in COVID-19 diagnoses over time—by mixing up the dates on the X-axis and putting them out of order.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

---------------------------------

As Pence Stands By, DeSantis Unleashes On Former Health Official
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/05/20/as-pence-stands-by-desantis-unleashes-on-former-health-official-1284725

TALLAHASSEE — As Vice President Mike Pence quietly looked on, Gov. Ron DeSantis unleashed his temper on a former state employee at the center of a debate over Florida's coronavirus data.

DeSantis, visibly annoyed and raising his voice, blasted Rebekah Jones, age 30, who was fired this week from the Florida Department of Health after she raised doubts about the veracity of coronavirus testing data on the Florida Department of Health’s Covid-19 dashboard.

“She’s not a data scientist. She is somebody that has a degree in journalism communication and geography,” DeSantis told reporters in Orlando, growing animated. “She is not involved in collating any data, she does not have the expertise to do that.”

... Pence praised the state's response to the outbreak.



---------------------------------

US Has Three Months to Rebuild Medical Supplies Stockpile: Obama Administration Scientists Warn
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/exclusive-obama-us-national-stockpile-trump-coronavirus

http://adhocresponsegroup.org/

Nine top scientists who advised Barack Obama in the White House are warning that the US has just three months to rebuild its national stockpile of emergency medical supplies or risk further drastic shortages of testing kits and protective gear should coronavirus strike again in the fall.

The dramatic warning from Obama’s former science advisers contains an implicit criticism of Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic. In a seven-page missive, the group says that federal government preparations for a possible resurgence of the disease must be triggered immediately if a repeat of the “extraordinary shortage of supplies” that was seen in March and April is to be avoided.

“Preparation for a resurgence needs to be initiated now. It needs to be at a national level, in close collaboration and coordination with state and local officials,” the letter says.

http://adhocresponsegroup.org/OPCAST_Ad_Hoc_Subgroup_Stockpile_Recommendations_05-20-20.pdf

The nine authors, led by John Holdren, Obama’s White House science adviser throughout his two terms in office, criticise the Trump administration for failing to act on numerous studies urging replenishment of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) in preparation for just the kind of health emergency unfolding today.

All nine were members of the Council of Advisors on Science and Technology assembled by Obama at the start of his presidency. Between 2009 and 2016 they co-wrote six reports for the president that touched on viral pandemics.

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST-Influenza-Vaccinology-Report.pdf
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 03:13:11 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6720 on: May 22, 2020, 12:14:35 AM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6721 on: May 22, 2020, 01:31:51 AM »
Diamond Princess’s Coronavirus Cases Reveal Pattern of Disease
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-21/diamond-princess-s-coronavirus-cases-reveal-pattern-of-disease

Months after the coronavirus infected more than 700 people on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan, scientists are still gleaning insights into the patterns of illness it causes.

Almost a fifth of the 3,711 passengers and crew on the 13-deck luxury ship in February caught the virus -- most of them showing no tell-tale symptoms of Covid-19 at the time. A detailed analysis of cases found the disease could be very mild, causing a sore throat, dry cough and runny nose, without fever or lower respiratory tract symptoms, a study published in the June edition of the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases showed.

That’s problematic and differs with early reports that described Covid-19 manifesting as pneumonia, according to researchers in Japan. “Most cases are milder and could have more transmission potential because patients might not seek medical attention,” said Takeshi Arashiro, a junior resident at the Asahi General Hospital in Chiba, just outside Tokyo.

The lower threshold for testing people for the coronavirus while the cruise ship was quarantined in Yokahama “created an opportunity to observe mild Covid-19 cases and monitor patient symptoms,” he said.

Understanding the disease pattern that coronavirus infection can cause is important for informing strategies for detecting and controlling it. The high proportion of people who test positive for the virus and have only mild or no symptoms makes fever-screening travelers, for example, much less useful in detecting probable infections than was the case with the related coronavirus that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome 17 years ago.

Here is a breakdown of the cases on the Diamond Princess:

Total passengers
& crew on board ............... 3711

Infected with coronavirus.. 712  ...... 19.2%

Had no symptoms
when tested positive ...........410  ..... 57.6%

Remained asymptomatic ... 331  ..... 46.5%

Cases admitted
to intensive care ................... 40  .....   5.6%

Died of Covid-19 ...................  12  .....  1.7%
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3912
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1362
  • Likes Given: 2139
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6722 on: May 22, 2020, 10:13:58 AM »
So the German IFO-Institute (biggest German economic think tank) made a study where they modeled different scenarios of handling the crisis. They modeled the economic decline and death rate when you do nothing vs doing strict lockdowns and mitigations and spaces in between.

They found that there is a sweet spot where you have both, the least economic decline, and least deaths.

Keeping the R-value at around 0.7 does the least damage to the economy and kills fewer people.

Saving lives is not contradictory to mitigate economic damages. On the contrary, they go hand in hand!

Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten des Corona-Shutdown für Deutschland: Eine Szenarienrechnung
Link >> https://www.ifo.de/en/publikationen/2020/aufsatz-zeitschrift/die-volkswirtschaftlichen-kosten-des-corona-shutdown
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3912
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1362
  • Likes Given: 2139
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6723 on: May 22, 2020, 10:59:30 AM »
You might recognize this pattern...

CMU Researchers Say Sophisticated, Orchestrated Bot Campaigns Aim To Sow Divide

Link >> https://www.cs.cmu.edu/news/nearly-half-twitter-accounts-discussing-‘reopening-america’-may-be-bots (you need to copy and paste it, the forum breaks the link)
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6724 on: May 22, 2020, 11:09:26 AM »
Italy Virus Death Toll Could Be 19,000 Higher Than Reported: Agency
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-italy-virus-death-toll-higher.html

Italy's death toll from the novel coronavirus in March and April could be nearly 19,000 higher than the official figure of 32,000, the national social security agency said Thursday.

The Istituto Nazionale della Previdenza Sociale (INPS), the largest social security and welfare institute in Italy, said in a new study that the official death figures were not "reliable".

Its study showed that 156,42 total deaths were recorded in Italy in March and April, which is 46,909 higher than the average number of fatalities in those months recorded between 2015 and 2019.

But only 27,938 deaths linked to coronavirus were reported during that period by the Civil Protection Agency, whose toll forms the basis of national statistics, the INPS said.


That meant there were 18,971 more deaths than normal during this period, with the vast majority of 18,412 recorded in the coronavirus-ravaged north of the country.

"Given the fact that the number of deaths is quite stable in these times, we can—with necessary caution—attribute a large portion of these deaths during these past two months to the epidemic," the INPS said.

It added that the increase in deaths was likely not only due to the disease, but from people suffering from other illnesses unable to get healthcare due to hospitals being overwhelmed by the coronavirus pandemic.

As of Friday, the pandemic has claimed 32,486 deaths in Italy, of which 26,715 have been in Lombardy alone—Europe's worst affected region.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1014
  • Likes Given: 701
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6725 on: May 22, 2020, 01:36:23 PM »
Excess mortality was negative in the week of 11 - 17 may in the Netherlands.

There are of course still Covid cases , last big cluster was in a Vion meat processing plant.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6053007/na-weken-van-oversterfte-lag-sterftecijfer-vorige-week-lager-dan-normaal.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1797
  • Likes Given: 229
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6726 on: May 22, 2020, 03:10:18 PM »
At Least 4 States Combined Numbers From Two Tests, Possibly Providing a Misleading Picture of Coronavirus Spread
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/21/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

... Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and Vermont have said they've been adding two numbers to their totals: viral test results and antibody test results.

Viral tests are taken by nose swab or saliva sample, and look for direct evidence someone currently has Covid-19. By contrast, antibody tests use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.

Combining the two tests' results into one total could provide an inaccurate picture of where and when the virus spread.

The combination also could also overstate a state's ability to test and track active infections -- a key consideration as states ease coronavirus restrictions.
Experts have consistently emphasized that for states to reopen safely, adequate testing and tracing is needed.

Texas, Virginia and Vermont have said they've recognized the data issue and moved to fix it in the past few days. In Georgia, health officials said they've been adding antibody tests to their "total tests" number in line with methodology from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC has not responded to CNN's request for comment on whether its guidance includes adding antibody tests to total test numbers. On the CDC website, the database provides daily test results without a breakdown of whether they're viral or antibody.

-------------------------------

Alabama Mayor is Now Considering Shelter-in-Place Order
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/21/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

Montgomery, AL - The mayor of Alabama's capital said Thursday he's considering issuing a local shelter-in-place order after health officials saw an increase of new cases in the past two weeks.

"My hope is that we don't have to do that," Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed told CNN on Thursday afternoon.

The city has a shortage of open beds in intensive care units, Reed said, due to the number of Covid-19 patients.

In a news conference Wednesday, Reed said the city's health care system is "maxed" and if that if you need an ICU bed, "you are in trouble."

The mayor said he believes the spike of cases is related to the state loosening restrictions -- a move he described as premature.

"I would have liked to see a more cautious approach to us reopening our economy," he told CNN's Brianna Keilar.

As of Thursday afternoon, Alabama was one of 17 states that had registered an upward trend in average daily cases -- a rise of at least 10% -- over the previous seven days, according to an analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

cognitivebias2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6727 on: May 22, 2020, 03:47:10 PM »


Professor Sunetra Gupta predicts the true IFR to be 0.05% (starting about 14:50 in this video).  BTW, she is professor of theoretical epidemiology, so within her field to comment I suppose.

I just wanted to pull that detail out.  IFR right now is about 0.05% assuming everyone in the UK has been infected already and no one else will die.



El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 383
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6728 on: May 22, 2020, 05:42:08 PM »
I just wanted to pull that detail out.  IFR right now is about 0.05% assuming everyone in the UK has been infected already and no one else will die.

If IFR is 0,05% then 40 million people out of a total of 8,6  million in NYC were infected.

(since they had cca 20000 dead, which is 0,25% of the population)


...she should be reading this forum, we settled on cca 1% a month ago :)

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5209
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1451
  • Likes Given: 1475
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6729 on: May 22, 2020, 07:09:00 PM »
I guess that requires a professor of practical epidemiology...

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 358
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6730 on: May 22, 2020, 07:54:37 PM »
I just wanted to pull that detail out.  IFR right now is about 0.05% assuming everyone in the UK has been infected already and no one else will die.

If IFR is 0,05% then 40 million people out of a total of 8,6  million in NYC were infected.

(since they had cca 20000 dead, which is 0,25% of the population)


...she should be reading this forum, we settled on cca 1% a month ago :)

You must be confusing or confounding or conflating deaths from covid and deaths with covid and deaths through covid....
When you stop being confused or confounded you will realize deaths are zero, which multiplied by 0.05% is zero contagions. See? It’s all a conspiracy to bind us all in the darkness... it’s all a dumb panic... it’ll go away in april

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 358
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6731 on: May 22, 2020, 08:31:22 PM »
The six countries with most number of recent cases, here shown weekly cases.
Emerging Brazil, Chile, Perú, India.
One month of slow but steady exponential growth in Brazil, and weekly cases go over 100,000.

Second graph shows, of those above, the countries with most deaths per capita.
I add Sweden for comparison. Its approach to COVID is the gold standard in sustainable death, says who.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 08:54:44 PM by gandul »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6732 on: May 22, 2020, 10:10:05 PM »
Professor Sunetra Gupta predicts the true IFR to be 0.05% (starting about 14:50 in this video).  BTW, she is professor of theoretical epidemiology, so within her field to comment I suppose.

I just wanted to pull that detail out.  IFR right now is about 0.05% assuming everyone in the UK has been infected already and no one else will die.

She didn't predict that. She said it was possible, but there is no way of telling, because there are still so many unknowns, on so many levels.

Two other things that she said that I found interesting, was that it was possible that the virus had already been around for longer than assumed, hence the differences between her research group's model and the highly influential Imperial College model.

But what really blew my mind, because I actually hadn't thought about it, was when she said that it is also possible that people may come into contact with the virus (ie it enters their bodies), but the virus is simply thrown out, without the immune system having to have to come into action.

What appealed to me over-all, was that she hardly stated anything as gospel truth, or 'facts'. Everything she said, came across as very sober, as one expects a scientist to be, stressing uncertainty and caveats. There hasn't been much of that in most of the reporting on the subject, or on this forum for that matter. It's as if nobody realizes - or wants to realize - that almost all data on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 are incomplete and possibly faulty to a very high degree, and thus open to interpretation.

Take for instance that German IFO-Institute study based on the R-value. This value is an incredibly imprecise number, because it is based on incomplete and possibly faulty data. But the reporting presents it as if it is something that can be measured accurately, like temperature or some such. And many people seem very eager to accept that.

Or the excess mortality stories. Average mortality is X, and it was Y during the period in which people fell ill with COVID-19, hence the difference can only be explained by COVID-19, and not for instance due to panic, causing old people to have premature strokes and heart attacks, or Romanian careworkers to flee to their home country, or huge logistical mistakes to be made (because of decades of underfunding and cost-cutting) etc. What kind of childish, unscientific thinking is that?

I'm not a scientist, far from it, but studying Arctic sea ice and AGW has taught me a few things about how science is supposed to work, and almost the entire foundation of this saga is built on things that are removed quite a long way from science. Assumptions are not facts, regardless of how many governments, journalists, scientists and regular people hold those assumptions.

But people get so invested in it that there is no way for them to go back. This is now 'reality', and it must remain that way.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6733 on: May 22, 2020, 10:23:31 PM »
Excess mortality was negative in the week of 11 - 17 may in the Netherlands.

There are of course still Covid cases , last big cluster was in a Vion meat processing plant.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6053007/na-weken-van-oversterfte-lag-sterftecijfer-vorige-week-lager-dan-normaal.html

Quote
"Het is bekend dat na een periode van hogere sterfte vaak een periode van lagere sterfte - ook wel ondersterfte genoemd - volgt. Ook na de verhoogde sterfte tijdens de griepepidemie in 2018 was er een periode van ongeveer zes weken waarin de sterfte lager lag."

Dat komt doordat oudere mensen of mensen met onderliggend lijden nu eerder zijn overleden dan onder normale omstandigheden het geval zou zijn. In de weken na de oversterfte zie je dus ondersterfte, omdat deze mensen al in de voorgaande weken van de coronacrisis zijn overleden, zo legt het CBS aan NU.nl uit.

translation:

"It is known that after a period of higher mortality, a period of lower mortality - also known as under-mortality - often follows. Even after the increased mortality during the flu epidemic in 2018, there was a period of about six weeks in which the mortality was lower."

This is because older people or people with underlying suffering now die earlier than they would under normal circumstances. In the weeks after the excess mortality, you therefore see under-mortality, because these people died in the previous weeks of the corona crisis, Statistics Netherlands explains to NU.nl.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 655
  • Likes Given: 194
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6734 on: May 22, 2020, 10:45:01 PM »

Or the excess mortality stories. Average mortality is X, and it was Y during the period in which people fell ill with COVID-19, hence the difference can only be explained by COVID-19, and not for instance due to panic, causing old people to have premature strokes and heart attacks, or Romanian careworkers to flee to their home country, or huge logistical mistakes to be made (because of decades of underfunding and cost-cutting) etc. What kind of childish, unscientific thinking is that?


 Anywhere there is diminished human activity, mortality will decrease.  Mortality decreases significantly. People calculating excess deaths using historic average are dead wrong because under a shutdown the number of deaths should plummet. To calculate C19 deaths from mortality data the average mortality for the date must be adjusted by the lack of activity and then the difference between that and C19 can be reasonably attributed to C19.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 243
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 170
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6735 on: May 22, 2020, 11:09:10 PM »
Or the excess mortality stories. Average mortality is X, and it was Y during the period in which people fell ill with COVID-19, hence the difference can only be explained by COVID-19, and not for instance due to panic, causing old people to have premature strokes and heart attacks, or Romanian careworkers to flee to their home country, or huge logistical mistakes to be made (because of decades of underfunding and cost-cutting) etc. What kind of childish, unscientific thinking is that?
Unscientifically looking at the graphs on https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest one sees that in April mortality had tripled in Manaus, quadrupled in Guayas, quintupled in New York City, sextupled in Bergamo.

And you want to attribute that to "panic"?

Of course there is every reason to want to close one's eyes to the prospect that such outbreaks might happen in one's own town too. Year after year, maybe even twice per year. And that is only the deaths. There are also the months-long (possibly chronic) cases.

cognitivebias2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 110
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6736 on: May 22, 2020, 11:22:32 PM »
Professor Sunetra Gupta predicts the true IFR to be 0.05% (starting about 14:50 in this video).  BTW, she is professor of theoretical epidemiology, so within her field to comment I suppose.

I just wanted to pull that detail out.  IFR right now is about 0.05% assuming everyone in the UK has been infected already and no one else will die.

She didn't predict that. She said it was possible, but there is no way of telling, because there are still so many unknowns, on so many levels.

Qusetion (paraphrased): Do you have an IFR estimate?

Answer:"I think the epidemic has largely come and gone in this country, so it would be definitely less than 1/1000, probably closer to 1/10000."

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 185
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 85
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6737 on: May 23, 2020, 12:07:12 AM »
As of May 22nd, New York City has posted the following COVID-19 attributed deaths (from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page):

18333 confirmed deaths
4753 probable deaths

The 2019 Census estimate for New York City's population is (from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newyorkcitynewyork,bronxcountybronxboroughnewyork,kingscountybrooklynboroughnewyork,newyorkcountymanhattanboroughnewyork,queenscountyqueensboroughnewyork,richmondcountystatenislandboroughnewyork/PST045219):

8336817

If we assumed that everyone in NYC had been infected and there is no undercounting, this gives an IFR of:

Confirmed Only: 18333 / 8336817 = 0.22%
Confirmed + Probable: (18333 + 4753) / 8336817 = 0.27%

That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be. Claiming that the IFR is 0.2% or below is complete rubbish when we already have observations demonstrating that it is higher.
computer janitor by trade

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6738 on: May 23, 2020, 12:25:47 AM »
Anywhere there is diminished human activity, mortality will decrease.  Mortality decreases significantly. People calculating excess deaths using historic average are dead wrong because under a shutdown the number of deaths should plummet. To calculate C19 deaths from mortality data the average mortality for the date must be adjusted by the lack of activity and then the difference between that and C19 can be reasonably attributed to C19.

This is exactly what I mean. Not even attributing all the excess death to COVID-19 is enough. It has to be even more. Always more. This desire for maximization hinders scientific thinking.

My point is that it's nigh impossible to say anything conclusive about excess deaths (never mind the under-mortality that will follow the excess for months to come), but people do it nevertheless. Constantly.

Unscientifically looking at the graphs on https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest one sees that in April mortality had tripled in Manaus, quadrupled in Guayas, quintupled in New York City, sextupled in Bergamo.

And you want to attribute that to "panic"?

I don't know about Manaus and Guayas, because I have zero affinity with those places geographically and culturally, but I seriously suspect that the panic or fear - and other aspects as well, such as air pollution, bad logistical decisions, and many unknowns - was partly responsible for the excess deaths. Fear and uncertainty are very bad for old people.

Again, my point is that all of the (excess) deaths are attributed to COVID-19. It's presented as fact, with hardly any context or nuance. This isn't scientific.

Quote
Of course there is every reason to want to close one's eyes to the prospect that such outbreaks might happen in one's own town too. Year after year, maybe even twice per year. And that is only the deaths. There are also the months-long (possibly chronic) cases.

Why would I close to my eyes to death? You're projecting. Death is a part of life, and in the case of pandemics, it's something that is to be expected when you allow global industrialisation to run rampant. Perhaps we need to accept that we have these things coming. You can't have your cake and eat it.

She didn't predict that. She said it was possible, but there is no way of telling, because there are still so many unknowns, on so many levels.

Qusetion (paraphrased): Do you have an IFR estimate?

Answer:"I think the epidemic has largely come and gone in this country, so it would be definitely less than 1/1000, probably closer to 1/10000."

You see the 'I think'? And can you post everything she says in that particular segment, instead of minequoting?

What's the problem with a lower IFR? Why does it have to be maximized? The data is still very incomplete and possibly faulty. That's why there's a lot of pushback from serious scientists, and I can guarantee you they aren't white supremacist Trumputin conspiracy theorists.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6739 on: May 23, 2020, 12:32:28 AM »
As of May 22nd, New York City has posted the following COVID-19 attributed deaths (from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page):

18333 confirmed deaths
4753 probable deaths

The 2019 Census estimate for New York City's population is (from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newyorkcitynewyork,bronxcountybronxboroughnewyork,kingscountybrooklynboroughnewyork,newyorkcountymanhattanboroughnewyork,queenscountyqueensboroughnewyork,richmondcountystatenislandboroughnewyork/PST045219):

8336817

If we assumed that everyone in NYC had been infected and there is no undercounting, this gives an IFR of:

Confirmed Only: 18333 / 8336817 = 0.22%
Confirmed + Probable: (18333 + 4753) / 8336817 = 0.27%

That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be. Claiming that the IFR is 0.2% or below is complete rubbish when we already have observations demonstrating that it is higher.

What you are doing is simply unscientific. It's just maths.

Who has died/is dying in New York? What's the demographics in New York? What is the general population health, compared to other places? What are the environmental stress factors, compared to other places? Are you 100% sure the numbers are correct? Did everybody really die from COVID-19, or did some of them die with COVID-19? How many people died because of medical mistakes? Does the whole population get the disease, or do some people simply not get it, without their immune system being triggered?

You don't have the data or context to make conclusive statements like this one: "That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be." I know the media does it, I know social media amplifies this narrative beyond imagination, but that doesn't make it reality. It makes it 'reality' based on assumptions.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 185
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 85
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6740 on: May 23, 2020, 12:50:22 AM »
What you are doing is simply unscientific. It's just maths.

...

Does the whole population get the disease, or do some people simply not get it, without their immune system being triggered?

I don't think you understand what the "Infection Fatality Rate" is. If you don't get the disease, you contribute to neither the numerator nor the denominator of the IFR.

All of this aimless conjecture to increase the bounds of uncertainty reeks of the same climate skeptic tactics that get so tiresome to encounter.
computer janitor by trade

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 185
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 85
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6741 on: May 23, 2020, 01:21:47 AM »
To throw some science onto the pile, here is a preprint meta-analysis of IFR estimates:

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2.full.pdf

Quote
The meta-analysis demonstrated a point-estimate of IFR of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%) with high heterogeneity (p<0.001).

...

Within distinct study types, there was a difference in the point-estimates for IFR. Published research had  a  much  lower  point-estimate  (modelling:  0.57%,  0.22-0.69%,  observational:  0.46%,  0.14-0.90%) than  pre-prints  (1.06%,  0.81-1.3%),  although  the  lowest  heterogeneity  was  seen  in  the  pre-print research.
computer janitor by trade

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 941
  • Likes Given: 501
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6742 on: May 23, 2020, 01:33:54 AM »
I don't think you understand what the "Infection Fatality Rate" is. If you don't get the disease, you contribute to neither the numerator nor the denominator of the IFR.

I don't make myself clear enough. What I mean, is the possibility that the virus enters some people's bodies and gets ejected again without triggering their immune systems.

But thanks for not going into my other questions that are about the context that your conclusive statement ignores.

Quote
All of this aimless conjecture to increase the bounds of uncertainty reeks of the same climate skeptic tactics that get so tiresome to encounter.

Please, don't try to shut me up or put me down this way. For various reasons, AGW and SARS-CoV-9 cannot be compared. By doing so, you're playing right into the tactics that climate risk deniers employ, as they'll be sure to use this saga by saying that it's just like AGW.

The statement "That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be" is devoid of context or nuance, and thus largely unscientific.

That is my point. And there's far too much of that.

I'll be out of your hair again for a while and just post videos that I think are interesting to watch.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Florifulgurator

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 275
  • Virtual world alter ego / अवतार of Martin Gisser
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 83
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6743 on: May 23, 2020, 01:59:19 AM »
Or the excess mortality stories. Average mortality is X, and it was Y during the period in which people fell ill with COVID-19, hence the difference can only be explained by COVID-19, and not for instance due to panic, causing old people to have premature strokes and heart attacks, or Romanian careworkers to flee to their home country, or huge logistical mistakes to be made (because of decades of underfunding and cost-cutting) etc. What kind of childish, unscientific thinking is that?
It is Occam's Razor! And thinking in magnitudes (relating to other magnitudes) plus/minus irrelvant errors (as opposed to the business pencil sharpener's numbers incl. cents and pennies).

Attached is the cumulated excess mortality graph from euromomo.eu.

The message is utterly clear. No need to be such a scientist sceptic. Do you seriously want to excuse the ca. (circa!) 150000 dead shown in the graph (not all EU reporting here) with panic heart attacks and missing Romanian careworkers? "It's the sun!"


P.S.: Apropos comparing magnitudes: Note the high excess mortality 2017/18. In some EU countries it was the most lethal flu wave in 30y. https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/106375/Grippewelle-war-toedlichste-in-30-Jahren
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 01:25:20 PM by Florifulgurator »
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

bbr2315

  • New ice
  • Posts: 79
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6744 on: May 23, 2020, 02:38:35 AM »
I don't think you understand what the "Infection Fatality Rate" is. If you don't get the disease, you contribute to neither the numerator nor the denominator of the IFR.

I don't make myself clear enough. What I mean, is the possibility that the virus enters some people's bodies and gets ejected again without triggering their immune systems.

But thanks for not going into my other questions that are about the context that your conclusive statement ignores.

Quote
All of this aimless conjecture to increase the bounds of uncertainty reeks of the same climate skeptic tactics that get so tiresome to encounter.

Please, don't try to shut me up or put me down this way. For various reasons, AGW and SARS-CoV-9 cannot be compared. By doing so, you're playing right into the tactics that climate risk deniers employ, as they'll be sure to use this saga by saying that it's just like AGW.

The statement "That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be" is devoid of context or nuance, and thus largely unscientific.

That is my point. And there's far too much of that.

I'll be out of your hair again for a while and just post videos that I think are interesting to watch.
I tested - for antibodies. My phlebotomist during the test told be she had been exposed countless times and had no PPE initially and by all accounts should have been infected. She never got sick and did not develop antibodies.

I think you are hitting the nail on the head. I think the data indicates a large % of the population, mostly the younger cohort that is healthy, may not even DEVELOP antibodies against this because for them it is benign.

We have no way of validating or nullifying this hypothesis but I suggest that the data in NYC illustrates this could be the case. There appears to be a massive disparity in deaths between my neighborhood in Manhattan (280 per million, about national average), and parts of Brooklyn which are over 6,000 per million. The case split is something like 847 per 100K to 4,500+ per 100K. But the death split is SO much higher in areas where populations are older and / or unhealthier, I think it may indicate we are very possibly UNDERESTIMATING the rate of infection in the young very GREATLY because many in the group most likely to get it will in fact show no symptoms or antibodies at all even with infection.

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 721
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6745 on: May 23, 2020, 07:02:16 AM »
The UK has a death rate 4x that of Germany, because it took the UK one week longer into its epidemic to get as scared as Germany. Failure to get scared kills too.

There are excess deaths in the UK because people with heart attacks got too scared to go to hospital and there will be more excess deaths in the UK because a lot of important but not immediately critical health care has been shut down for over two months (and there's no sign of anyone thinking seriously about how to get it back yet). Excess deaths in UK hospitals went negative several weeks ago, because a lot of seriously ill people are too scared to go to hospital, and hospitals in general haven't worked out how to get effective infection control for routine operations yet.

Mismatch between the degree of hazard from COVID19 and the fear of it kills, and will continue to kill for a long time to come, but it cuts both ways. Not being as scared as Germany has killed about 75% of those that died in the UK.



sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5450
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 678
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6746 on: May 23, 2020, 07:15:58 AM »
That meta analysis is interesting. I note that the error bars on the lower estimates are smaller.

That said, i trust few estimates of the total number of infections. The ones i trust more are from countries with the most tests per capita like iceland and south korea. Mortality counts both excess and ascribed to covid are harder numbers, but fairly worthless for IFR until the total infected is better known. The latter carries most of the uncertainty.

sidd



SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1670
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 330
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6747 on: May 23, 2020, 08:19:18 AM »
To throw some science onto the pile, here is a preprint meta-analysis of IFR estimates:

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2.full.pdf

Quote
The meta-analysis demonstrated a point-estimate of IFR of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%) with high heterogeneity (p<0.001).

...

Within distinct study types, there was a difference in the point-estimates for IFR. Published research had  a  much  lower  point-estimate  (modelling:  0.57%,  0.22-0.69%,  observational:  0.46%,  0.14-0.90%) than  pre-prints  (1.06%,  0.81-1.3%),  although  the  lowest  heterogeneity  was  seen  in  the  pre-print research.

Thanks for this.  The conclusion isn't far off from contributors' analyses on this very thread above.  Essentially, an IFR near or somewhat below 1%.  Of course, the available data are skewed towards populations that have good healthcare available.  The mortality may be significantly higher in populations suffering poverty or poor health care.

This is the worst global health crisis in 102 years.  In a way, we should be thankful==the 1918 virus was significantly more lethal than this one.  Next time, we may not be so lucky.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3912
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1362
  • Likes Given: 2139
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6748 on: May 23, 2020, 09:17:22 AM »
... because it is based on incomplete and possibly faulty data ...

... but studying Arctic sea ice and AGW has taught me a few things about how science is supposed to work...

Neven, this a contradiction. Nowhere in science do you have all the data. Far from it actually.

Regarding climate change, we all see the path we are on, even though the data is incomplete and possibly faulty, don't we?

And the IFO institute (or any model for that matter) can of course use a mathematical tool like the R-value to gather knowledge.
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2960
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 655
  • Likes Given: 194
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6749 on: May 23, 2020, 10:08:16 AM »
Neven, honestly your argument as unbelievable as Trump's or Elon Musk argument. You ask us to not believe the data we have, yet you present no credible evidence.

Quote
The statement "That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be" is devoid of context or nuance, and thus largely unscientific.

I'm sorry, what?

If you take the total number of deaths of disease to date and divide it by the total number of people in a city, that is a hard lower bound on the IFR for that city.

If you claim to be speaking on the belief of science, please explain how can you possibly obtain a lower bound than that?

Of course, you are not speaking science. You are speaking conspiratorial thinking.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.