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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 244964 times)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6800 on: May 28, 2020, 09:40:52 PM »
There's an update on the UK infection survey today.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020

Currently infected 0.24% of the general population
New infections 0.1% per week
Error margins far too big to say whether these numbers are going up or down but they look pretty stable.
6.8% have antibodies

Combining the data from the whole survey period to date drops the error margins enough to start to say something about which segments of the population are most infected.
Quote
Of those in our study who reported working in patient-facing healthcare or resident-facing social care roles, 1.73% tested positive for COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.92% to 2.94%). This includes NHS professionals, such as nurses and doctors, as well as social care workers, such as nursing home or home care workers.

By comparison, the percentage of people reporting not working in these types of roles testing positive for COVID-19 was lower at 0.38% (95% confidence interval: 0.29% to 0.47%).

Symptoms are a poor measure of infection.
The best combination (cough, fever, loss of smell/taste) only tested positive 6% of the time, and only 30% of those testing positive reported any symptoms at all during the study period.
Anything based on symptoms catches an awful lot of people that aren't infected, and misses an awful lot of people that are.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6801 on: May 28, 2020, 10:52:42 PM »
Research Points to Treatment for COVID-19 Cytokine Storms
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-treatment-covid-cytokine-storms.html

Patients taking ruxolitinib were randomly selected to receive two daily 5mg oral doses of the anti-inflammatory drug, plus the standard of care treatment for COVID-19. A randomly selected control group of 21 patients received a placebo along with the standard of care treatment.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruxolitinib

"Ruxolitinib recipients had a numerically faster clinical improvement," study authors write in their report. "Significant chest CT improvement, a faster recovery from lymphopenia and favorable side-effect profile in ruxolitinib group were encouraging and informative to future trials to test efficacy of ruxolitinib in a larger population."

Patients treated with ruxolitinib saw a shorter median time to clinical improvement compared to the control group. Researchers reported that 90 percent% of ruxolitinib patients showed CT scan improvement within 14 days, compared with 9 percent of patients from the control group. Three patients in the control group eventually died of respiratory failure. All the severely ill patients who received ruxolitinib survived.



Yang Cao et al, Ruxolitinib in treatment of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A multicenter, single-blind, randomized controlled trial, Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2020.05.019

--------------------------------------

GSK to Produce One Billion Doses of Adjuvant Vaccine Booster in 2021

UK drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline Plc will expand production of vaccine efficacy boosters, or adjuvants, to produce one billion doses in 2021 for use in shots for COVID-19, the company has said.

The company added it was in talks with governments on backing the programme, which would allow the expansion of the scale of production of future successful vaccines for the COVID-19 disease.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6802 on: May 29, 2020, 10:57:43 AM »
For those not interested in participating in the herd immunity trials, this paper has great experiments on the dynamics of mouth and nose aerosols

Small droplet aerosols in poorly ventilated spaces and SARS-CoV-2 transmission

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30245-9/fulltext

Quote
Although data on factors related to this transmission are scarce, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to mostly be via the transmission of respiratory droplets coming from infected individuals.1 Small droplets, from submicron to approximately 10 μm diameter, produced during speech and coughing, have been shown to contain viral particles,2 which can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for 3 h.3 The droplets can be transmitted either directly by entering the airway through the air (aerosols),4 or indirectly by contact transfer via contaminated hands.

...

During speech, only the small droplets were found (appendix p 1). Although large droplets have been specifically related to coughs,4 here we observe that both sizes of droplet are produced by coughing.

...

 We also investigated droplets coming from the nasal cavity, and found that with normal breathing no droplets are detected above the background noise level


Please note the distinction between breathing and speech.  It is very hard to infect others with c19 through just breathing. You need to propel the particles at significant speeds and direction so they remain on the air for a long time.  Normal breathing is not enough, especially through the nose. Speech imparts much more momentum to the particles.

To be clear. To stop the transmission of covid 19, stop speaking.

Obviously this can be extremely impractical in many places but it may be of use in special circumstances. Elevators, public transportation, or anywhere where there is no need for speech and is poorly ventilated.

Quote
We repeated this experiment in three rooms with different levels of ventilation: no ventilation, mechanical ventilation only, and mechanical ventilation supported by the opening of an entrance door and a small window (appendix p 3). In the best ventilated room, after 30 s the number of droplets had halved, whereas with no ventilation this took about 5 min,

Quote
Transmission by aerosols of the small droplets studied here can only be prevented by use of high-performance face masks; a conventional surgical mask only stops 30% of the small aerosol droplets studied here for inhaled breath;9 for exhaled breath the efficacy is much better.10

My bold. The perfect is the enemy of the good.

In a hospital setting, a surgical mask that blocks 30% of the small particles coming in is insufficient to work with dozens of possibly infected, unmasked patients, day in and day out. It would do in a pinch or in most poor countries, but there is better protection available.

In an epidemic setting, any protection that blocks any particle from coming in results in R reduction. 30% is actually really good protection relative to nothing. Any protection that blocks any particle from going out also accumulates and results in R reduction.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6803 on: May 29, 2020, 11:01:22 AM »
As US Deaths Top 100,000, Trump's Coronavirus Task Force is Curtailed
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/28/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-task-force/index.html

As the American death count from coronavirus ticks above 100,000, the panel assembled by President Donald Trump to confront the pandemic has been sharply curtailed as the White House looks ahead to reopening.

Vice President Mike Pence convened the White House coronavirus task force on Thursday for the first time in a week. The group of doctors and high-ranking administration officials, which met daily even on weekends at the height of the pandemic, has seen its formal sessions reduced from three per week at the start of May to one per week now, according to White House schedules.

The task force has essentially been sidelined by Trump, said senior administration officials and others close to the group, who described a greatly reduced role for the panel created to guide the administration's response to the pandemic.

Aside from the slimmer schedule of meetings, members of the task force have seen their visibility diminished, officials noted, as public health experts like Drs. Deborah Birx, Anthony Fauci and Surgeon General Jerome Adams are now only occasionally appearing at news conferences, often without speaking roles.

That has allowed Trump himself to resume his position as the public face of the administration's response to the outbreak -- even as he continues to make questionable statements about the pandemic and undermines precautionary measures such as wearing masks outdoors when social distancing is difficult. Trump has since contradicted much of the task force's advice.

... Recently, the CDC and its director, Dr. Robert Redfield, have made "multiple efforts" to get the CDC's daily briefings reinstituted, but they've "given up asking."
 
The White House and the Department of Health and Human Services made the CDC halt them earlier in the year, when some CDC officials offered dire warnings that angered the President.

-----------------------------

Gov. Mike DeWine Accidentally Promotes Scientology Health Literature at Coronavirus Briefing
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/05/gov-mike-dewine-accidentally-promotes-scientology-health-literature-at-coronavirus-briefing.html?outputType=amp

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Gov. Mike DeWine (R) accidentally touted a pamphlet produced by the Church of Scientology as literature that would be handed out to minority communities in the coronavirus response, the governor’s office said Thursday.

The pamphlet – which was first identified by Tony Ortega, former editor-in-chief of The Village Voice who now exclusively covers Scientology for his blog – was part of a package ​of materials the governor showed off at his May 21 ​briefing. He said ​the bags would be handed out to minority communities, who have been disproportionately affected by the disease.

The pamphlet makes no mention of Scientology until the last page, which contains a QR code that, if scanned, takes the reader to the Church of Scientology’s website.

https://tonyortega.org/2020/05/27/biggest-pandemic-score-ohio-gov-dewine-to-send-out-thousands-of-scientology-pamphlets/
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6804 on: May 29, 2020, 11:20:08 AM »
Patients Share Beds as Coronavirus Cases Overwhelm Mumbai’s Hospitals
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/india-mumbai-hospitals-overwhelmed-coronavirus-cases

In Mumbai’s Sion hospital emergency ward there are two people to a bed. Patients, many with coronavirus symptoms and strapped two to a single oxygen tank, were captured lying almost on top of each other, top-to-toe on shared stretchers or just lying on the floor, in footage shared on social media in India this week.

Mumbai, a city of more than 20 million people, is weeks into the pandemic, but with new cases showing no sign of slowing down the city’s already weak healthcare system appears to be on the brink of collapse. State hospitals such as Sion, overcrowded in normal times, are overrun. With frontline doctors and nurses falling sick with the virus in their droves, it is also leading to a shortage of medical staff.

“The volume and density of our population in Mumbai makes it very difficult to see how we will get out of the other side of this peak,” said Manish Shetty, a doctor who works on the Covid-19 ward in Guru Nanak hospital in Mumbai. “Definitely there is a fatigue setting in from all frontline workers, especially because there is a very high chance of healthcare workers getting infected.”

He added: “There is definitely a shortage of beds for critical care. There is a lot of infrastructure and planning which is happening, but the magnitude of the cases is overwhelming us all.”

It was at Sion hospital that, in footage that went viral a few weeks ago, Covid-19 patients were seen being treated in a ward alongside dead bodies, wrapped in black plastic bags, after the hospital morgue ran out of room.

With 52,667 cases, and 1,695 deaths – nearly a quarter of all Covid-19 deaths nationally – the state of Maharashtra, and in particular its biggest city, Mumbai, has emerged as the centre of India’s coronavirus outbreak. According to doctors and officials, the peak began on 6 May, but the curve is showing no signs of flattening, and cases are still doubling every week.

... To complicate matters further, the beginning of June will bring the monsoon and the outbreaks of dengue fever, malaria and leptospirosis, which already inundate hospitals on an annual basis. Last year India officially reported more than 67,000 cases of dengue, though the real figure is thought to be much higher.

----------------------------

A Toddler Trying to Wake Up Dead Mother Shocks Indians
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/india-toddler-waking-dead-mother-highlights-migrants-misery-200528043019019.html

https://mobile.twitter.com/t_d_h_nair/status/1265555910816083969?s=20

Millions of India's poor, including migrant workers, have suffered from the strict lockdown, with many in cities losing their jobs, going hungry and struggling to return to their home villages.

Critics have accused the Modi government of imposing the lockdown without much planning that has caused havoc on the economy and created the worst migrant crisis since the country achieved independence in 1947.

Some have walked or cycled hundreds of kilometres home in the harsh summer heat, with dozens dying from exhaustion or in accidents.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2020, 12:30:31 PM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6805 on: May 29, 2020, 12:28:52 PM »
Cancer, Coronavirus are a Dangerous Mix, New Studies Find
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-cancer-coronavirus-dangerous.html

New research shows how dangerous the coronavirus is for current and former cancer patients. Those who developed COVID-19 were much more likely to die within a month than people without cancer who got it, two studies found.

They are the largest reports on people with both diseases in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Canada. In one study, half of 928 current and former cancer patients with COVID-19 were hospitalized and 13% died. That's far more than the various rates that have been reported in the general population.

Men seemed to fare worse—17% of them died versus 9% of women. That might be because breast cancer was the most common tumor type in this group, and women with it tend to be younger and with fewer health problems versus many cancers seen in men that are typically diagnosed at later ages. Smoking also is more common among men.

A second study in Lancet from researchers in England of 800 patients with various types of cancer and COVID-19 found an even higher death rate—28%. The risk rose with age and other health problems such as high blood pressure.

The studies have big implications: More than 1.6 million new cancers are diagnosed in the United States each year, several million Americans are in treatment now and about 20 million are cancer survivors.

Dr. Jeremy Warner, a Vanderbilt University data scientist who led the larger study, said the results show the wisdom of measures that many hospitals have taken to delay or modify care for many cancer patients, and the need for people treated in the past to be extra careful now.

"If they don't have COVID-19, they want to do anything they can to avoid getting it," he said.

... The risk of death also seemed higher for patients taking the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic azithromycin, but this could be because sicker patients were given those drugs. Of the 928 study participants, 89 took hydroxychloroquine and 181 took the combination.

The rate of death in patients getting both drugs was 25%, about double the 13% for the group as a whole, Warner said.

Nicole M Kuderer et al. Clinical impact of COVID-19 on patients with cancer (CCC19): a cohort study, The Lancet (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31187-9

Lennard Y W Lee et al. COVID-19 mortality in patients with cancer on chemotherapy or other anticancer treatments: a prospective cohort study, The Lancet (2020)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31173-9
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6806 on: May 29, 2020, 01:11:38 PM »
As far as the world data is concerned, Covid-19 is not going away. If anything the daily increase in new cases is increasing.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6807 on: May 29, 2020, 02:06:11 PM »
Quote
The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0, 57.9). Conclusions: It is plausible that closed environments contribute to secondary transmission of COVID-19 and promote superspreading events. Our findings are also consistent with the declining incidence of COVID-19 cases in China, as gathering in closed environments was prohibited in the wake of the rapid spread of the disease.

Link >> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2
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Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6808 on: May 29, 2020, 02:41:29 PM »
For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6809 on: May 29, 2020, 03:01:31 PM »
The government [UK] is paying the Sun and Daily Mail for positive coverage of its coronavirus response

Link >> https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/the-government-is-paying-the-sun-and-daily-mail-for-positive-coverage-of-its-coronavirus-response/28/05/
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Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6810 on: May 29, 2020, 04:24:56 PM »
For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %.

That is wonderful, because then 100% of NYC should have been infected. Unfortunately antibody tests say that only 25% has been infected.

Reality meets "realistic estimate"

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6811 on: May 29, 2020, 06:55:10 PM »
That is wonderful, because then 100% of NYC should have been infected. Unfortunately antibody tests say that only 25% has been infected.

Reality meets "realistic estimate"

Or two other possible 'realities':

1) Something about NYC caused more deaths than elsewhere.
2) Data from NYC are not accurate.

And maybe not everybody gets infected, even when the virus enters their bodies...

For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %.

But does the CDC really say this, or is it twisted through a partisan filter? That site leans right-wing, right?

If they do say this, colour me surprised.
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cognitivebias2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6812 on: May 29, 2020, 07:14:41 PM »
They do say it... under most likely scenario.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Symptomatic CFR 0.004
Asymptomatic cases:  35%

0.004 * (1-0.35) = 0.0026

The CDC estimate seems not to fit the data very well.  Not just NYC, but lots of other places.

If CFR is 2-3% in lots of places, then 10 symptomatic cases are out there for every 1 that is 'identified'.  Meanwhile positive test are down below 1 in 10 in many places.  So just where are all these 'dark' COVID positive cases hiding?

« Last Edit: May 29, 2020, 07:36:08 PM by cognitivebias2 »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6813 on: May 29, 2020, 08:02:39 PM »
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6814 on: May 29, 2020, 08:34:50 PM »
Makes sense:

China says Wuhan wet market was site of ‘superspreader’ event, not Ground Zero

Link >> https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-chinas-cdc-says-wuhan-wet-market-was-site-of-superspreader-incident-but-not-outbreaks-source
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6815 on: May 29, 2020, 08:39:58 PM »
As restaurants reopen, here’s what you should know about air conditioning, air flow and the coronavirus

Link >> https://outline.com/ERBk2r
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6816 on: May 29, 2020, 09:06:26 PM »
One of Germany's top virologists, Christian Drosten, says the country could avoid a second wave of coronavirus infections. With more known about the virus, it may be possible to keep COVID-19 limited to local flare-ups.

Link >> https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-can-avoid-second-wave/a-53621681
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6817 on: May 29, 2020, 10:40:24 PM »
Trump 'Terminates' US Contract With WHO
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/14-million-face-hunger-latin-america-live-coronavirus-updates-200529000031680.html

US President Donald Trump has said the US is 'terminating' its relationship with the WHO, saying group hasn't made coronavirus reforms.

Trump has been a vocal critic of the WHO's handling of the pandemic, freezing funding in April. He said the funding would diverted to other groups.

The WHO and 37 countries (except U.S.)  have launched the COVID-19 Technology Access Pool, an alliance aimed at making coronavirus vaccines, tests, treatments and other technologies available to all countries.

--------------------------------

Coronavirus Started Spreading In the U.S. In January, CDC Says
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1217766

The coronavirus began quietly spreading in the U.S. as early as late January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday — before President Trump blocked air travel from China and a full month before community spread was first detected in the country.

More than four months into the pandemic that has killed at least 102,000 Americans, the new data is the first comprehensive federal analysis of when COVID-19 took hold in the U.S.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w

It was also the first media briefing from the CDC in more than two months.

The CDC traced the early spread in several ways, including what's called syndromic surveillance of emergency department records, tests of respiratory specimens and analyses of the virus's genetic sequences from early cases.

Additionally, three separate COVID-19 cases in California confirmed "cryptic circulation of the virus by early February," the CDC authors wrote.

"Information from these diverse data sources suggests that limited community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States occurred between the latter half of January and the beginning of February, following an importation of SARS-CoV-2 from China," the authors wrote. SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 illness.

The virus then came into the U.S. from Europe, the CDC reported. "The findings do show that in late February, early March, there were several importations of the virus from Europe to California and northeastern United States and possibly elsewhere," Redfield said.

... By Friday afternoon — more than four months since COVID-19 began circulating in the U.S. — more than 1.7 million cases had been diagnosed.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6818 on: May 29, 2020, 11:51:45 PM »
That is wonderful, because then 100% of NYC should have been infected. Unfortunately antibody tests say that only 25% has been infected.

Reality meets "realistic estimate"

Or two other possible 'realities':

1) Something about NYC caused more deaths than elsewhere.
2) Data from NYC are not accurate.

And maybe not everybody gets infected, even when the virus enters their bodies...

For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %.

But does the CDC really say this, or is it twisted through a partisan filter? That site leans right-wing, right?

If they do say this, colour me surprised.
The NY Times has now REMOVED its excess death counter for NYC. And switched it with US only, I think this this is political. In any case it was 24,800 before it was taken down.

The CDC DOES now say .26% death rate but I think this is wrong due to the data from NYC which says we have 25K dead. If baseline immunity (children + young the virus totally bounces off of) is 20%+, that means NYC is now 50-60% immune, which means the virus is going to have a very hard time sustaining any subsequent rounds of transmission, especially because those infected were the most SOCIAL, which means those remaining are less social and inherently less prone to spreading the virus.

My concern with the data from NYC is multi-pronged.

1) I do think it is accurate that we saw about 25K deaths here for an IFR of .75-1%.
2) I don't think NYC is special. The highest spread was in the Outer Boroughs, with the last number of cases in Manhattan. My zipcode's fatality rate is LESS than the overall US fatality rate (Lower Manhattan -- some neighboring zips are actually at ZERO still, we have 1 fatality in my zipcode).
3) Is 30-40% infection in the primary wave of this virus in a location an upper bound, or is it actually a LOWER bound? NYC was misfortunate because it was one of the last major cities in the NHEM where the late arrival of spring precluded an early end to the virus (perhaps more pop-wide vit D deficiency in NYC is to blame especially in people of color, who have died 2X the rate vs. white people and Asians). But perhaps this "primary" wave of the virus was actually ABBREVIATED in NYC because it became so severe as the seasons shifted from winter to spring / summer? Thus NYC now has partial / possibly sufficient infected pop for herd immunity.

These congruencies lead to an observation that NYC was UNIQUE (alongside perhaps Lombardy and Wuhan) as a location where the first wave of COVID is likely to be the deadliest and most impactful by a very wide margin (IMO). But between these unique settings, we saw a first wave of COVID that was 55% as deadly as all THREE waves of Spanish Flu in NYC (relative to total population), and 86% as deadly as the autumnal wave of Spanish Flu, with peak mortality HIGHER vs. overall pop at peak of COVID vs Spanish Flu (about 6.5X vs 6X).

The fact that this happened most prominently in the Outer Boroughs and in rural Lombardy means that it is going to happen EVERYWHERE when the embers of the disease ignite again in September and early October. Even WITH containment protocols, as in Buenos Aires, the disease is going to explode, it just may take longer to do so (and this time, unlike the start of Vit D production in mid-April just two months from COVID's beginning in the West, it is seven months to mid-April from mid-September).

I think that had the pandemic's evolution in NYC *not* met the headwinds of spring, it is possible it could have accelerated to have been WORSE. How much worse? I don't know. It could be 10%, or 20%, or 50%. None of those numbers sound implausible, though I doubt it would have been much worse than 50% (which would put the single wave of COVID at about 80% of the cumulative Spanish Flu toll or relatively HIGHER than the Autumnal Wave's impact).

In any case, in NYC, we have literally just moved beyond a period of pandemic disease that had a primary wave of death 86% as bad as that of Spanish Flu's Second Wave. That is TREMENDOUSLY bad. Like, we talked about nightmare Spanish Flu equivalents, and this was it in NYC, except it hit old people and those with pre-existing conditions rather specifically and VERY hard, with little impact in young people.

I think the hospital admission charts also support the notion that this actually spread through the schools. After the drop in seasonal admissions for 0-17 year old, there was a big spike in early-mid March. This spike was then seen in the 17-45 year olds around the 22nd of March, in 45-64 the 27th, in 65-74 the 1st, and then in 75+ the 1st-7th (or thereabouts, the sequencing of the peaks is roughly accurate). This supports the notion that the virus arrived in NYC sporadically on travelers, it got into the schools, it then spread through the schools like wildfire undetected for the most part (=increasing ER visits NOT admissions for 0-17 year olds), and then it cascaded through each elder segment of the population within the next 5-7 days (i.e., the kids gave it to each other en-masse, then they gave it to their parents, then the parents gave it to their grandparents and aunts and uncles, etc).

I think the epidemiology of what happened in NYC is alarming precisely because NYC is NOT unique, or rather, where this happened at its worst was NOT Manhattan, but the fabric of the Outer Boroughs that is common to all American cities with major pre-war density. What happened here can happen in Chicago, or San Francisco, or Philadelphia. And maybe it can even happen in Atlanta, and Miami, and Los Angeles as well.

NYC is now inoculated pretty well, I would imagine a very large proportion of children have already been exposed. But when schools open up around the country in September, this is going to begin spreading like wildfire through kids after 9/15 or so, and it will do so most INVISIBLY. There will be some increases in emergency room visits for kids, but they will mostly be turned away (those few that actually show symptoms). In the ensuing two-four weeks, the virus' embers are probably going to re-ignite, and we will see what happened in NYC play out everywhere else but possibly in an even worse way.

Unless we get a vaccine, and unless it works, and unless it is deployed by 10/1. That is only four months away at this point.

If not, NYC's IFR could actually be a LOWER bound relative to many other regions. If NYC's IFR is approximated in the rest of the US, btw, the death toll will be about a million when all is said and done which means we are about 12.5% of the way there (rounding up to 125K estimated current dead based on the NYT's #s). That means that nationally, the virus is likely to be 8-9X *worse* assuming wide regions do not fair worse than NYC did, with its world-class medical system that actually WAS available and worked well at providing surge capacity.

I think there is a very plausible scenario where most regions of the US ultimately see a HIGHER IFR than NYC did due to 1) more obesity and 2) substandard healthcare. I would think much of the South and Midwest will be utterly devastated, with IFR 50%+ above NYC, and they will also have a disproportionate number of young people dying due to morbid obesity which will yield cries of "it's mutated" when the actuality is, fat men in particular are very prone to dying from this disease, and it becomes a major problem (i.e. mass hospitalizations) after the age of THIRTY in this group.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 12:03:50 AM by bbr2315 »

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6819 on: May 30, 2020, 12:48:54 AM »
Trump or not, I would terminate the contract with WHO. What is that organization for, I've been asking myself since February. What did they achieve or enable, apart from recommendations servile to powers and not really based on science. I must only wonder what they do in empoverished and politically corrupted countries in the name of health...

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6820 on: May 30, 2020, 01:12:02 AM »
And maybe not everybody gets infected, even when the virus enters their bodies...
The virus can enter one's body but if it is in small amount, there's a probability that the viruses do not succeed replicating themselves and one doesn't get sick. But also immunological response or antibodies do not develop. It's irrelevant.

You have to get billions of replicating viruses (even if asymptomatic) to develop antibodies.

This is what science tells us about viral infection. Do we believe in science, or are we breeding armchair theories applied to coronaviruses?

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6821 on: May 30, 2020, 01:48:13 AM »
New Zealand is on the brink of becoming the first country in the world significantly affected by Covid-19 to eliminate all active cases.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300024286/coronavirus-how-new-zealand-can-be-the-first-in-the-world-to-put-an-end-to-covid19
Quote
Active cases dropped quickly to just one over the last week. Over the same period, no new cases were confirmed by the Government.

Since Wednesday May 27, the number of active infections fell from 21 to just 1. Of those, 19 people have fully recovered, while one, a 96-year-old woman connected to the St Margaret's Rest Home cluster, died.

The country’s sole active case is in the Auckland DHB region, where the last notifications of infection happened in the first week of May. There were two positive tests on May 1 and a probable case five days later in the region.

This week’s rapid decline in active cases vaulted New Zealand ahead of Iceland in the race to 0. And New Zealand may have the better chance of making it to zero since the Nordic nation reported a new case on Thursday.

As of May 29, Iceland has only 3 active cases according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University.

New Zealand and Iceland are among the 113 countries to have reported a total of at least 700 Covid-19 cases and reached a 7-day average of at least 30 new cases per day.
Behind them in that group are Hong Kong (27 active cases), Andorra (31) and Thailand (62). Slovenia is reporting 9 active cases but this is on the back of a one-day drop of some 1000 active cases, believed to be the result of a reporting issue.

Both New Zealand and Iceland have benefited from geographical isolation. However, they have taken different paths to eliminating Covid-19.

Iceland, vying with New Zealand to reach zero active Covid-19 cases first, plans to reopen to tourists in June.

Iceland invested in massive testing but took a more relaxed approach to social isolation and movement restrictions. Kiwis, on the other hand, went through a strict mandatory quarantine that effectively closed down the economy for a month.

The divergent approaches were quantified by Oxford University's stringency index. On a 0 to 100 scale, New Zealand scored a whopping 96.3 at the peak of its lockdown. It was the only nation among World Bank's high-income economies to go above the threshold of 90. Since the easing of restrictions, New Zealand’s stringency index fell to just 36.1.

Iceland, where cafés and restaurants stayed open throughout the epidemic, has maintained a 53.7 stringency score since mid-March.

Stephen

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6822 on: May 30, 2020, 01:59:22 AM »
Trump or not, I would terminate the contract with WHO. What is that organization for, I've been asking myself since February. What did they achieve or enable, apart from recommendations servile to powers and not really based on science. I must only wonder what they do in empoverished and politically corrupted countries in the name of health...

There are other health issues in the world apart from COVID-19. 
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6823 on: May 30, 2020, 02:40:11 AM »
WHO programs from A to Z

https://www.who.int/entity/en/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6824 on: May 30, 2020, 02:53:15 AM »


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6825 on: May 30, 2020, 03:37:51 AM »
Trump or not, I would terminate the contract with WHO. What is that organization for, I've been asking myself since February. What did they achieve or enable, apart from recommendations servile to powers and not really based on science. I must only wonder what they do in empoverished and politically corrupted countries in the name of health...

There are other health issues in the world apart from COVID-19.
Ok I won’t generalize to the whole organization programs.
But
- They declared covid as pandemic in March when everybody already knew it was a pandemic
- They screwed up with their erring on the lax side with masks, instead of on the safe side. They were protecting health workers, perhaps, but they were not transparent and lied about the scientific facts.
- They were eager to praise China response while shamelessly refusing to recognize Taiwan as a country, this is a UN organization, folks, and Taiwan had an exemplary response to covid.
- They rushed to halt HCQ trials based on the Lancet study that is receiving increased scrutiny and criticism from experts (including WHO employees)

They have lost all reputation from my point of view.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6826 on: May 30, 2020, 08:33:31 AM »

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-boroughs.page

NYC's COVID death rate by race per 100K / boro via DOH --

White / Manhattan: 57.2

Asian / Manhattan: 67.3

Asian / Brooklyn: 91.3

Asian / SI: 99.2

Asian / Queens: 112.9

White / Queens: 116.4

White / SI: 118.9

White / Brooklyn: 135.5

White / Bronx: 146.4

Asian / Bronx: 149.1

Hispanic / Manhattan: 169.6

Hispanic / SI: 187.1

Black / Queens: 190.5

Black / Manhattan: 197.9

Black / Brooklyn: 209.4

Hispanic / Brooklyn: 228.7

Hispanic / Bronx: 237.5

Black / SI: 260.5

Hispanic / Queens: 260.8

Black / Bronx: 265.3

PS, biggest discrepancies....

Hispanic: Manhattan / Queens, +91.2
White: Manhattan / Bronx, +89.2
Asian: Manhattan / Bronx, +81.8
Black: Queens / Bronx, +74.8

« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 08:40:22 AM by bbr2315 »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6827 on: May 30, 2020, 09:11:08 AM »
Here is the hospitalization data per 100K as well. These differences are even larger.

White / Manhattan: 159.8
Asian / Manhattan: 167.3
Asian / SI: 189.2
Asian / Brooklyn: 189.8
Asian / Queens: 289.5
White / SI: 309.3
White / Queens: 327.4
White / Brooklyn: 344.4
Asian / Bronx: 440
Hispanic / Manhattan: 455.6
Hispanic / SI: 461.5
Hispanic / Brooklyn: 463.3
White / Bronx: 505.6
Black / Brooklyn: 557.8
Hispanic / Queens: 608
Hispanic / Bronx: 642.4
Black / Manhattan: 657.2
Black / Queens: 738.6
Black / SI: 775.4
Black / Bronx: 870.9

This shows that hospitalization rates cumulatively ended up at .87% of all Black people in The Bronx for wave 1. That is a very huge number.  Can you imagine those kind of proportions of populations in areas that don't have the Five Boroughs best-in-world healthcare system (or arguably best in world?)? Yikes.

Finally, YES, the below data is 75+, but the sheer staggering rate of the death here is pretty insane.

By Borough, % of 75+ pop now dead of COVID per 100K:

Bronx: 1.96%
Brooklyn: 1.57%
Queens: 1.48%
Staten Island: 1.34%
Manhattan: 1.1%

For 65-74, it is --

Bronx: .89%
Brooklyn: .64%
Queens: .61%
Staten Island: .41%
Manhattan: .36%

Those #s are also probably a bit low, by 20-40% or so if the NYT count of excess deaths was accurate. It is very plausible that 2%+ of the 75+ and 1%+ of 65-74 year olds in The Bronx died of COVID in the span of about four weeks.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 09:19:40 AM by bbr2315 »

nanning

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"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6829 on: May 30, 2020, 10:34:16 AM »
They do say it... under most likely scenario.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Symptomatic CFR 0.004
Asymptomatic cases:  35%

0.004 * (1-0.35) = 0.0026

The CDC estimate seems not to fit the data very well.  Not just NYC, but lots of other places.

If CFR is 2-3% in lots of places, then 10 symptomatic cases are out there for every 1 that is 'identified'.  Meanwhile positive test are down below 1 in 10 in many places.  So just where are all these 'dark' COVID positive cases hiding?
The CDC's estimate is 0.4% for symptomatic cases, so the answer does not lie in the "dark cases". Looking at the CDC's table 1, no source is listed for the CFR, except the dubious "Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC".
The bibliography below the two tables is very sparse, with one source for COVID epidemiological estimates and one for influenza. Weirdly, the one source for COVID is a meta-analysis that estimates CFR as 2%...
Bottom line, I find the CDC estimate to be dubious, certainly requiring a more detailed explanation.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6830 on: May 30, 2020, 11:09:36 AM »
The infection survey in England and Wales estimates total infected in the general population about 3M, and total deaths so far are about 30k for the 1% IFR which has been the typical finding. However it also suggests IFR could have been quite a lot different if shielding care homes in England and Wales had been better or worse than it was.

Both the infection survey and the timings of the peak death rates inside and outside hospital in England and Wales suggest about 4x the rate in care  homes compared to the general population which would have dropped the IFR to about 0.6% if infection had been uniform. Really big error bars on the infection survey, and signs of underreporting COVID deaths in the early stages of the epidemic, so thats a really rough number, but it does show just how sensitive the IFR is to how successful shielding of the elderly is.

I am not aware of any infection survey for Scotland yet, but care home deaths looked a lot worse compared to hospital deaths in Scotland than they have been in England, so I would not be surprised to see IFR rather higher than 1% there once the surveys get done and published.

The US rushed into using tests that were still pretty dodgy, so the CDC might have a lot of false positives in the data its using and be underestimating IFR as a result, but 0.4% across the US doesn't seem out of the question. Its very sensitive to how many elderly people in a population get infected. The US is relatively young compared to the UK (13% over 65 vs. 18% according to wikipedia)

If the US doesn't have a widespread care home epidemic, 0.4% doesn't sound unreasonable. 0.6% if England hadn't had a care home epidemic, drop that by 1/3 for the age structure, and its 0.4%.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6831 on: May 30, 2020, 11:24:58 AM »
This sounds interesting. It reinforces the prior belief that vaccines in general provide a level of immunity to C19 cytokine storm, although not necessarily to C19.

Trained Immunity: a Tool for Reducing Susceptibility to and the Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Infection


https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30507-9

Quote
  Long-term boosting of innate immune responses, also termed “trained immunity,” by certain live vaccines (BCG, oral polio vaccine, measles) induces heterologous protection against infections through epigenetic, transcriptional, and functional reprogramming of innate immune cells. We propose that induction of trained immunity by whole-microorganism vaccines may represent an important tool for reducing susceptibility to and severity of SARS-CoV-2.

A list of treatments or cures that for which there is evidence of positives effects against C19:

1. Awareness of vulnerability from Vitamin D deficiency.
2. Convalescent Plasma.
3. Remdevisir and other antivirals.
4. Proning patients before intubation.
5. Trained immunity?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6832 on: May 30, 2020, 03:04:59 PM »
I released a number of posts by BBR about Covid in NYC. First one is here:

.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Yuha

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6833 on: May 30, 2020, 04:02:25 PM »
But
- They declared covid as pandemic in March when everybody already knew it was a pandemic

As you say yourself, everybody already knew. The actual declaration has no real significance. The actions are up to national authorities anyway. And WHO did declare COVID-19 a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern" already in January.

Quote
- They screwed up with their erring on the lax side with masks, instead of on the safe side. They were protecting health workers, perhaps, but they were not transparent and lied about the scientific facts.

There is still no consensus on using masks by general public. Just yesterday the Finnish health authorities published a report on using face masks. Result: no requirement or recommendation for the general public to use face masks. My understanding is that several other countries have made a similar decision.

Quote
- They were eager to praise China response while shamelessly refusing to recognize Taiwan as a country, this is a UN organization, folks, and Taiwan had an exemplary response to covid.

This is an issue with just about all international organizations. Only 14 out of 193 members of the UN have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Quote
- They rushed to halt HCQ trials based on the Lancet study that is receiving increased scrutiny and criticism from experts (including WHO employees)

The study was suspended temporarily and a decision of whether to continue will be made in a week or two. Seems a pretty reasonable decision to me.



blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6834 on: May 30, 2020, 04:31:14 PM »
Boom!  ;D

Thanks for the reality check, Yuha.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6835 on: May 30, 2020, 05:05:58 PM »
It’s not whether you were exposed to the virus. It’s how much.

The pathogen is proving a familiar adage: The dose makes the poison.

Quote
When experts recommend wearing masks, staying at least six feet away from others, washing your hands frequently and avoiding crowded spaces, what they’re really saying is: Try to minimize the amount of virus you encounter.
A few viral particles cannot make you sick — the immune system would vanquish the intruders before they could. But how much virus is needed for an infection to take root? What is the minimum effective dose?
A precise answer is impossible, because it’s difficult to capture the moment of infection. Scientists are studying ferrets, hamsters and mice for clues but, of course, it wouldn’t be ethical for scientists to expose people to different doses of the coronavirus, as they do with milder cold viruses.
“The truth is, we really just don’t know,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. “I don’t think we can make anything better than an educated guess.”
Common respiratory viruses, like influenza and other coronaviruses, should offer some insight. But researchers have found little consistency.
For SARS, also a coronavirus, the estimated infective dose is just a few hundred particles. For MERS, the infective dose is much higher, on the order of thousands of particles.
The new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is more similar to the SARS virus and, therefore, the infectious dose may be hundreds of particles, Dr. Rasmussen said.
But the virus has a habit of defying predictions.
Generally, people who harbor high levels of pathogens — whether from influenza, H.I.V. or SARS — tend to have more severe symptoms and are more likely to pass on the pathogens to others.
But in the case of the new coronavirus, people who have no symptoms seem to have viral loads — that is, the amount of virus in their bodies — just as high as those who are seriously ill, according to some studies.
And coronavirus patients are most infectious two to three days before symptoms begin, less so after the illness really hits.
Some people are generous transmitters of the coronavirus; others are stingy. So-called super-spreaders seem to be particularly gifted in transmitting it, although it’s unclear whether that’s because of their biology or their behavior.
On the receiving end, the shape of a person’s nostrils and the amount of nose hair and mucus present — as well as the distribution of certain cellular receptors in the airway that the virus needs to latch on to — can all influence how much virus it takes to become infected.
A higher dose is clearly worse, though, and that may explain why some young health care workers have fallen victim even though the virus usually targets older people.
The crucial dose may also vary depending on whether it’s ingested or inhaled.
People may take in virus by touching a contaminated surface and then putting their hands on their nose or mouth. But “this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
That form of transmission may require millions more copies of the virus to cause an infection, compared to inhalation.
Coughing, sneezing, singing, talking and even heavy breathing can result in the expulsion of thousands of large and small respiratory droplets carrying the virus.
“It’s clear that one doesn’t have to be sick and coughing and sneezing for transmission to occur,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a viral immunologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.

...

“This is not a virus for which hand washing seems like it will be enough,” Dr. Rabinowitz said. “We have to limit crowds, we have to wear masks."

Link >> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-transmission-dose.html
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6836 on: May 30, 2020, 05:59:34 PM »
Quote
The unprecedented pandemic of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in China and beyond has had major public health impacts on a global scale [1, 2]. Although bats are regarded as the most likely natural hosts for SARS-CoV-2 [3], the origins of the virus remain unclear. Here, we report a novel bat-derived coronavirus, denoted RmYN02, identified from a metagenomic analysis of samples from 227 bats collected from Yunnan Province in China between May and October 2019. Notably, RmYN02 shares 93.3% nucleotide identity with SARS-CoV-2 at the scale of the complete virus genome and 97.2% identity in the 1ab gene, in which it is the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 reported to date. In contrast, RmYN02 showed low sequence identity (61.3%) to SARS-CoV-2 in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and might not bind to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Critically, and in a similar manner to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 was characterized by the insertion of multiple amino acids at the junction site of the S1 and S2 sub- units of the spike (S) protein. This provides strong evidence that such insertion events can occur naturally in animal betacoronaviruses.

Link >> https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(20)30662-X.pdf
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6837 on: May 30, 2020, 08:30:43 PM »
It’s not whether you were exposed to the virus. It’s how much.

The pathogen is proving a familiar adage: The dose makes the poison.

But unlike most ordinary chemical poisons, there is no safe dose.

For virus there is the Independent Action Hypothesis. It is similar to the Linear-Dose/No-Threshold hypothesis in how radioactivity causes cancer. 

Any virus particle can cause the disease.

Quote
The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

[....]

The independent action hypothesis (IAH) states that each virion has an equal, nonzero probability of causing an infection. Validity of IAH was demonstrated for infection of insect larvae by baculovirus, and of plants by Tobacco etch virus variants that carried green fluorescent protein markers. IAH applies to systems where the host is highly susceptible, but the extent to which IAH is valid for humans and SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been firmly established. For COVID-19, with an oral fluid average virus RNA load of 7 × 10⁶ copies per milliliter (maximum of 2.35 × 10⁹ copies per milliliter), the probability that a 50-μm-diameter droplet, prior to dehydration, contains at least one virion is ∼37%. For a 10-μm droplet, this probability drops to 0.37%, and the probability that it contains more than one virion, if generated from a homogeneous distribution of oral fluid, is negligible. Therefore, airborne droplets pose a significant risk only if IAH applies to human virus transmission. Considering that frequent person-to-person transmission has been reported in community and health care settings, it appears likely that IAH applies to COVID-19 and other highly contagious airborne respiratory diseases, such as influenza and measles.
(my bold)
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6838 on: May 30, 2020, 10:23:50 PM »
Oh man we're really wanting to go for the second wave... I should post a picture of the bars in Madrid and people sit with less than two meters between tables, less that 50 cm between folks in the same table, and people speaking out loud, unmasked, with alcohol euphoria.

Are we going to a "weekend contagions" phase prior to escalating again?

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6839 on: May 30, 2020, 10:28:59 PM »
In Iran the 2th wave is taking shape.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6840 on: May 31, 2020, 12:19:33 AM »
In Israel a second wave could be beginning. Daily cases went from ~10-20 to ~100 within 3 days, after 3 weeks of stability. Many infections and clusters are school-related.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6841 on: May 31, 2020, 01:47:37 AM »
But
- They declared covid as pandemic in March when everybody already knew it was a pandemic

As you say yourself, everybody already knew. The actual declaration has no real significance. The actions are up to national authorities anyway. And WHO did declare COVID-19 a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern" already in January.

Quote
- They screwed up with their erring on the lax side with masks, instead of on the safe side. They were protecting health workers, perhaps, but they were not transparent and lied about the scientific facts.

There is still no consensus on using masks by general public. Just yesterday the Finnish health authorities published a report on using face masks. Result: no requirement or recommendation for the general public to use face masks. My understanding is that several other countries have made a similar decision.

Quote
- They were eager to praise China response while shamelessly refusing to recognize Taiwan as a country, this is a UN organization, folks, and Taiwan had an exemplary response to covid.

This is an issue with just about all international organizations. Only 14 out of 193 members of the UN have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Quote
- They rushed to halt HCQ trials based on the Lancet study that is receiving increased scrutiny and criticism from experts (including WHO employees)

The study was suspended temporarily and a decision of whether to continue will be made in a week or two. Seems a pretty reasonable decision to me.

All right I stand corrected partially. Anyway the pandemic declaration was almost comical by the time it came, and the mask recommendation for anyone given the asymptomatic droplet-transmitted contagion of the disease should be a safe-side common-sense no-brainer advice by now, moreover when there are some studies suggesting it may be aerosol-borne which almost makes it airborne.

We should not fall into that discussion again, but what I would like to see is the WHO basing their arguments in “There is evidence that...” instead of the defensive “There is no evidence that...”. Well, if there’s no evidence, err on the safe side, or say the truth “our sponsor, China, needs all PPE for themselves right now, so fuck off and manufacture the PPE yourselves”
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 01:59:25 AM by gandul »

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6842 on: May 31, 2020, 07:34:18 AM »
Well, the problem was more on the side of the national authorities that though that it was just a flu. Luxembourg is also going toward a second wave. We have now a weekly average of 4 cases per day and people feel so safe, it's just unbelievable. Once again, national authorities have not been able to provide a good message, I guess because they want to restart the economy as fast as possible.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6843 on: May 31, 2020, 08:23:56 AM »
Could nearly half of those with Covid-19 have no idea they are infected?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected
  by David Cox


  Excerpts:

Raje, an oncologist at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, had been caring for her sick husband for a week before driving him to an emergency centre with a persistently high fever. But after she herself had a diagnostic PCR test – which looks for traces of the Sars-CoV-2 virus DNA in saliva – she was astounded to find that the result was positive.

It took two months for Raje’s husband to recover. Repeated tests, done every five days, showed that Raje remained infected for the same length of time, all while remaining completely asymptomatic. In some ways it is unsurprising that the virus persisted in her body for so long, given that it appears her body did not even mount a detectable immune response against the infection.

“It’s mind-blowing,” she says. “Some people are able to be colonised with the virus and not be symptomatic, while others end up with pretty severe illness. I think it’s something to do with differences in immune regulation, but we still haven’t figured out exactly how this is happening.”


Epidemiological studies are now revealing that the number of individuals who carry and can pass on the infection, yet remain completely asymptomatic, is larger than originally thought.

However, when Covid-19 was identified at the start of the year, many public health officials both in the UK and around the world failed to account for the threat posed by asymptomatic transmission.

“I warned on 24 January to consider asymptomatic cases as a transmission vehicle for Covid-19, but this was ignored at the time,” says Bill Keevil, professor of environmental healthcare at the University of Southampton. “Since then, many countries have reported asymptomatic cases, never showing obvious symptoms, but shedding virus.”


 initial reports from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention investigation into the spread of Covid-19 on the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier in March, suggest that as many as 58% of cases were asymptomatic. Some 48% of the 1,046 cases of Covid-19 on the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier proved to be asymptomatic while, of the 712 people who tested positive for Covid-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 46% had no symptoms.

Almost all evidence seems to point to a proportion of asymptomatic infections of around 40%, with a wide range,” says Houben. “The proportion is also highly variable with age. Nearly all infected children seem to remain asymptomatic, whereas the reverse seems to hold for the elderly.


“When it comes to controlling Covid-19, this really shows that we cannot rely on self-isolation of symptomatic cases only,” he says. “Going forwards we need trace and test approaches to account for individuals who are not reporting any symptoms.”
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6844 on: May 31, 2020, 09:30:37 AM »
"Why Did the World Health Organization Wait Until March to Declare a Global Pandemic?"

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04/30/why-did-the-world-health-organization-wait-until-march-to-declare-a-global-pandemic/

Excerpts:

"The WHO’s International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee met twice in January, first on January 22-23 and then again on January 30; in the first meeting, the committee felt it had insufficient evidence to declare an emergency, but at the second meeting it took the decision to declare a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). This is the penultimate step for the WHO; on March 11, after it became clear that the virus was spreading across borders, but not before the WHO made many warnings to governments, the WHO declared a global pandemic."

"Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden, as well as a host of other U.S. politicians, made the argument that the WHO did not act fast enough with its declaration. Whatever problems posed to the United States by the virus were not the responsibility of the U.S. government, they suggested; the fault lay with the Chinese government and with the WHO."

"Our investigation finds that this argument has little foundation. The WHO’s reporting mechanisms are sound, but the WHO’s own ability to make these formal declarations—a public health emergency and a global pandemic, which come with serious financial consequences for member states—has been circumscribed; those who have constrained the World Health Organization—the United States and European nations—are the very same countries whose leaders are now complaining about Chinese influence over the WHO."

(...) "The North American and European states, in particular, insisted that the declaration of a PHEIC or global pandemic only be made after it was clear that air travel and trade would not be unduly interrupted. This restriction, essentially the core foundations of globalization, has constrained the WHO since 2005."

"The new WHO regulations were tested when a new influenza emerged out of Mexico and the United States in mid-April 2009. This H1N1 was a combination of influenza virus genes that had links to swine-lineage H1N1 from both North America and Eurasia (thus the 2009 outbreak was commonly known as 'swine flu'). It was first detected on April 15. On April 24, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uploaded a gene sequence onto a publicly accessible influenzas database. On April 25, ten days after the first detection of the virus, the WHO declared the 2009 H1N1 outbreak a PHEIC. On June 11, the WHO said that a global pandemic was underway."

"By July 2009, the dangerous H1N1 virus had a less lethal impact than the WHO had feared. However, for the full year from its first detection, 60.8 million people were infected and 12,469 died."

"Almost immediately, the WHO was attacked for the June 11 description of the outbreak as a pandemic. When the WHO declares a pandemic, governments are expected to do a variety of things including mass purchase of drugs and vaccines. These are costly."

"That December, members of parliament in the Council of Europe opened an inquiry into the WHO declaration. Fourteen members of the Council charged the WHO with what was essentially fraud. They said that 'pharmaceutical companies have influenced scientists and official agencies, responsible for public health standards, to alarm governments worldwide. They have made them squander tight health care resources for inefficient vaccine strategies and needlessly exposed millions of healthy people to the rise of unknown side-effects of insufficiently tested vaccines.' 'The definition of an alarming pandemic,' they wrote, 'must not be under the influence of drug-sellers.'"

The criticism of the WHO stung. It had declared a pandemic, but the virus had stabilized very soon after the declaration. The WHO responded to such criticism with humility. “Adjusting public perceptions to suit a far less lethal virus has been problematic,” the WHO responded. “Given the discrepancy between what was expected and what has happened, a search for ulterior motives on the part of the WHO and its scientific advisers is understandable, though without justification.”

"A WHO official told one of us that the agency had been shaken by the assault in 2009. Over the past ten years, the agency has struggled to regain its confidence, working through the Ebola outbreak in 2014 and then Zika in 2016. In neither of those cases was there a need to make any global declaration."

"This year, the WHO declared a global pandemic within three months of the first cases. But there is no doubt that the attack on the WHO a decade ago has made an impact. Former WHO employees tell us that fear of being attacked like this by the main donors seriously hampers the independence of the WHO and its scientific advisers. Trump’s current attack is going to weaken further the ability of the WHO to operate at its own pace and with credibility."

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6845 on: May 31, 2020, 10:37:44 AM »
When the WHO called a pandemic it was not yet a global pandemic. If you observe the attachment, prior to March 11, when the WHO declared a Pandemic, the situation reached a temporary plateau.


Cutting funds from the WHO during a 100-year pandemic is madness.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6846 on: May 31, 2020, 11:53:00 AM »
British doctor Malcolm Kendrick on RT.com (emphasis mine):

Quote
I’ve signed death certificates during Covid-19. Here’s why you can’t trust any of the statistics on the number of victims

By Malcolm Kendrick, doctor and author who works as a GP in the National Health Service in England. His blog can be read here and his book, 'Doctoring Data – How to Sort Out Medical Advice from Medical Nonsense,' is available here.

As an NHS doctor, I’ve seen people die and be listed as a victim of coronavirus without ever being tested for it. But unless we have accurate data, we won’t know which has killed more: the disease or the lockdown?

I suppose most people would be somewhat surprised to know that the cause of death, as written on death certificates, is often little more than an educated guess. Most people die when they are old, often over eighty. There is very rarely going to be a post-mortem carried out, which means that, as a doctor, you have a think about the patient’s symptoms in the last two weeks of life or so. You go back over the notes to look for existing medical conditions.

Previous stroke, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, angina, dementia and suchlike. Then you talk to the relatives and carers and try to find out what they saw. Did they struggle for breath, were they gradually going downhill, not eating or drinking?

If I saw them in the last two weeks of life, what do I think was the most likely cause of death? There are, of course, other factors. Did they fall, did they break a leg and have an operation – in which case a post-mortem would more likely be carried out to find out if the operation was a cause.

Mostly, however, out in the community, death certification is certainly not an exact science. Never was, never will be. It’s true that things are somewhat more accurate in hospitals, where there are more tests and scans, and suchlike.

Then, along comes Covid-19, and many of the rules – such as they were – went straight out the window. At one point, it was even suggested that relatives could fill in death certificates, if no-one else was available. Though I am not sure this ever happened.

What were we now supposed to do? If an elderly person died in a care home, or at home, did they die of Covid-19? Well, frankly, who knows? Especially if they didn’t have a test for Covid-19 – which for several weeks was not even allowed. Only patients entering hospital were deemed worthy of a test. No-one else.

What advice was given? It varied throughout the country, and from coroner to coroner – and from day to day. Was every person in a care home now to be diagnosed as dying of the coronavirus ? Well, that was certainly the advice given in several parts of the UK.

Where I work, things were left more open. I discussed things with colleagues and there was very little consensus. I put Covid-19 on a couple of certificates, and not on a couple of others. Based on how the person seemed to die.

I do know that other doctors put down Covid-19 on anyone who died from early March onwards. I didn’t. What can be made of the statistics created from data like these? And does it matter?

It matters greatly for two main reasons. First, if we vastly overestimate deaths from Covid-19, we will greatly underestimate the harm caused by the lockdown. This issue was looked at in a recent article published in the BMJ, The British Medical Journal.  It stated: “Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by Covid-19.

...David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that Covid-19 did not explain the high number of deaths taking place in the community.”

“At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre on May 12 he explained that, over the past five weeks, care homes and other community settings had had to deal with a ‘staggering burden’ of 30,000 more deaths than would normally be expected, as patients were moved out of hospitals that were anticipating high demand for beds.

Of those 30,000, only 10,000 have had Covid-19 specified on the death certificate. While Spiegelhalter acknowledged that some of these ‘excess deaths’ might be the result of underdiagnosis, ‘the huge number of unexplained extra deaths in homes and care homes is extraordinary. When we look back . . . this rise in non-covid extra deaths outside the hospital is something I hope will be given really severe attention.’ He added that many of these deaths would be among people ‘who may well have lived longer if they had managed to get to hospital.’”

What Speigelhalter is saying here is that people may well be dying ‘because of’ Covid, or rather, because of the lockdown. Because they are not going to hospital to be treated for conditions other than Covid. We know that A&E attendances have fallen by over fifty percent since lockdown. Admissions with chest pain have dropped by over fifty percent. Did these people just die at home?

From my own perspective, I have certainly found it extremely difficult to get elderly patients admitted to hospital. I recently managed with one old chap who was found to have sepsis, not Covid-19. Had he died in the care home; he would almost certainly have been diagnosed as “dying of Covid.”

The bottom line here is that, if we do not diagnose deaths accurately, we will never know how many died of Covid-19, or ‘because of’ the lockdown. Those supporting lockdown, and advising governments, can point to how deadly Covid was, and say we were right to do what we did. When it may have been that lockdown itself was just as deadly. Directing care away from everything else, to deal with a single condition. Keeping sick, ill, vulnerable people away from hospitals.

The other reason why having accurate statistics is vitally important is in planning for the future. We have to accurately know what happened this time, in order to plan for the next pandemic, which seems almost inevitable as the world grows more crowded. What are the benefits of lockdown, what are the harms? What should we do next time a deadly virus strikes?

If Covid-19 killed 30,000, and lockdown killed the other 30,000, then the lockdown was a complete and utter waste of time. and should never happen again. The great fear is that this would be a message this government does not want to hear – so they will do everything possible not to hear it.

It will be decreed that all the excess deaths we have seen this year were due to Covid-19. That escape route will be made far easier if no-one has any real idea who actually died of the coronavirus disease, and who did not. Yes, the data on Covid-19 deaths really matters.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6847 on: May 31, 2020, 12:26:15 PM »
Quote
Malcolm Kendrick is a fringe figure who agues against the lipid hypothesis.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Malcolm_Kendrick
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6848 on: May 31, 2020, 01:07:57 PM »
Quote
Malcolm Kendrick is a fringe figure who agues against the lipid hypothesis.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Malcolm_Kendrick

If he 'agues (sic)' against the lipid hypothesis, that makes him even more worth listening to, I think. Didn't know that, thanks. What are your problems with the article in question, if you have any?
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6849 on: May 31, 2020, 01:14:32 PM »
It's completely idiotic, Neven. Sorry, but you asked.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain