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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 244908 times)

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6850 on: May 31, 2020, 01:36:30 PM »
Last night we had our first social night out in almost three months. We had a picnic with another couple in their yard. We brought our own food and they had theirs and we sat about 12 feet across from each other and ate and chatted. It was very nice. One of the other two happens to be a very prominent epidemiologist who specializes in pandemic response preparedness. He has designed and run federal preparedness "war games" and has reported directly to presidents of the US. A few take homes:

SARS-CoV-2 is a worse bug than the 1918 influenza and had it been the bug at that time the global result would have been worse than the actual impact of that pandemic.

While he has spent his life preparing for pandemics, SARS-CoV-2 is worse than he expected and has a higher transmissibility, mortality and sublethal impacts than the pandemics he has gamed out.

He believes that current seropositivity in the US is around 5%.

Being an RNA vaccine, the Moderna vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273, needs to be stored at minus 80 C and is only stable for about 20 minutes after being removed from cold storage. This vastly complicates the logistics of distribution.  This is true of all RNA vaccines. This information is readily known; I just had not heard it.

Interestingly, social distancing compliance and stay-at-home compliance was far higher in the US than in their simulations. They did not anticipate that Americans would do it.  Obviously that situation is starting to change now.

Overall is is rather pessimistic about the future course of the pandemic.  He envisions a long slog, at least 18 more months, that might include outbreaks that rival or surpass what NY City experienced in April.

Smart, calm, sober, quiet, understated guy. Take it for what you will.


kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6851 on: May 31, 2020, 03:20:45 PM »
Interesting stuff.

SARS-CoV-2 is a worse bug than the 1918 influenza and had it been the bug at that time the global result would have been worse than the actual impact of that pandemic.


I would like to beg to differ. The one characteristic that 1918 H1N1 had was that it killed the young too which is different from this pandemic. I worked through this one so far which while not nice was manageable.

The spread of deaths over age classes is clearly different. Of course there are other differences like 100 years of advancements in medicine. They did not have antibiotics in 1918 but that would not have mattered for most cases i think because the 1918 H1N1 was really good at overloading the system. See the CDC links on 1918 H1N1 for details.

It would frighten me more if i had to work in that pandemic because i would be more likely to die.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6852 on: May 31, 2020, 03:41:54 PM »
It's completely idiotic, Neven. Sorry, but you asked.

Its not quite that bad but it is making rather more generalisation from anecdote than is warranted.

Some of those things definitely were problems at some places, particularly early in the epidemic. There were several weeks when emergency admissions were at about 50% of normal, but the government was pleading with people to go to hospital while that was happening, and its back close to normal levels now. It looks like this was a significant cause of excess death, because as the rates of emergency admission went back towards normal, the fraction of excess deaths that weren't COVID declined.
Flu/pneumonia without COVID is being put on death certificates at the normal rate, so its fairly clear that over diagnosis isn't happening, but it does look like there was under diagnosis of COVID in the early weeks.
Public sector care and hospital administrators have perverse incentives around the treatment of the elderly and perverse things happen as a result, but this isn't unique to COVID. How many of the excess deaths in the early weeks were a result of elderly patients being unwisely discharged in the initial panic is an open question, but there are definitely some scandals that caused some excess deaths, although most of the publicity is elderly patients acquiring COVID in hospital, being discharged while positive and setting off an outbreak in the care home they were discharged to. It wasn't until about 3 weeks after lockdown that patients were routinely tested before being discharged into "shielded" environments and at least some of the care home epidemic happened via this route.

The completely bonkers bit is thinking that 30k deaths from a panicky lockdown plus 30k deaths from COVID means that lockdown shouldn't have happened, rather than it should have happened earlier, before health care was compromised by the level of COVID infection. The ability to deal with emergency COVID cases wasn't overwhelmed in the UK, but it was a very close run thing and the ability to deal with other health issues has been severely compromised for months and there may well have been 10-20k deaths that are down to non-COVID care being compromised.


gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6853 on: May 31, 2020, 03:47:49 PM »
When the WHO called a pandemic it was not yet a global pandemic. If you observe the attachment, prior to March 11, when the WHO declared a Pandemic, the situation reached a temporary plateau.


Cutting funds from the WHO during a 100-year pandemic is madness.

Ok just tell me exactly and precisely, you or somebody who knows, why cutting funds to WHO during this pandemic is madness? What are they enabling? What are they achieving?
Or is this just anti-Trumpism?

I don’t get it. In any case I would accept the argument that the WHO has several beneficial programs in other areas, but their decisions and communication related to COVID-19 have placed their reputation under the ground.

Please somebody explain to me the critical role of Dr. Tedros and Co. in this pandemic, apart from misinformation, decisions not based on science, political attachment to the CCP.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 04:01:47 PM by gandul »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6854 on: May 31, 2020, 04:59:09 PM »
Blaming the WHO is Trump's strategy to deflect blame from himself. Blaming the WHO and China.

Please notice that according to Trump et al, the WHO and China are guilty of both overstating and understating the problem depending on the argument that is more convenient at the time.

At a time when hospital services will get overwhelmed all over the world, all the services the WHO provides become literally vital.

The world should be working together, but the leader of the largest superpower is sabotaging the response. Shutting down the WHO is part of his strategy to create chaos and gain power from it. The cost will be life and human well being all over the world. HE simply doesn't care. It serves him.
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Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6855 on: May 31, 2020, 05:16:12 PM »
I don’t get it. In any case I would accept the argument that the WHO has several beneficial programs in other areas, but their decisions and communication related to COVID-19 have placed their reputation under the ground.

By cutting all funding to WHO, all the programs by the WHO they run well are also endangered.
Especially in the countries too poor to care too much about COVID-19 specifically (because other illnesses are at least as lethal), this is a serious problem.
And in case you'ld care about the USA: ultimately this will get back to them. E.g. by the scenario that China steps in with the required funding for those other programs.

Anyway, worldwide cooperation, at least on the level of exchange of information, seems quite relevant to me regarding all public health issues.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6856 on: May 31, 2020, 05:17:03 PM »

Thanks, Richard, for debunking it. I hadn't had the energy to.
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6857 on: May 31, 2020, 06:57:26 PM »
The preposterous claim that lockdown and panic cause thousands of excess deaths can be debunked easily using some critical thinking and a scientific approach. Find countries that had a severe lockdown and lots of panic, but a low rate of actual infection. If half the UK excess mortality is due to panic and lockdown, you would expect these other countries to have thousands of extra deaths due to people avoiding hospitals. If most or all UK extra deaths are due to COVID, you would expect these countries to not have thousands of extra deaths.
Israel is one such country, with a very long and severe enforced lockdown and drummed up panic by the psychopath-in-chief Netanyahu (which once and for all seems to have done something right). I do not have access to mortality data but have read in articles that even with the 284 confirmed COVID deaths, there was no excess mortality at all (or barely so), due to lower death rates from other causes during the lockdown, e.g. traffic accidents, and due to the normal death rate being much higher than 284 over the two relevant months.
So: do panic and lockdown cause thousands of excess deaths? Of course not. Truly bizarre claim.
BTW, I believe Austria is another such country, with panic and lockdown but low infection rate. Anyone has access to Austrian total mortality numbers? Someone living in Austria?

Fractious

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6858 on: May 31, 2020, 07:53:53 PM »
"forever in covid"

~ Neil Diamond
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6859 on: May 31, 2020, 09:06:02 PM »
British doctor Malcolm Kendrick on RT.com (emphasis mine):

Quote
I’ve signed death certificates during Covid-19. Here’s why you can’t trust any of the statistics on the number of victims

The covid statistics is different in different countries. Russia has very few covid deaths, Belgium had many. There is an interesting article in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/may/29/excess-deaths-uk-has-one-highest-levels-europe

I reproduced a few of their graphs below: the total mortality this year, the ordinary mortality, and the reported covid deaths. Belgium is an example of a country where they also reported many deaths in care homes as covid deaths, whereas Italy is a country where the number of lab-confirmed covid deaths is an underestimate.

sigma_squared

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6860 on: May 31, 2020, 10:11:42 PM »
The preposterous claim that lockdown and panic cause thousands of excess deaths can be debunked easily using some critical thinking and a scientific approach. Find countries that had a severe lockdown and lots of panic, but a low rate of actual infection. If half the UK excess mortality is due to panic and lockdown, you would expect these other countries to have thousands of extra deaths due to people avoiding hospitals. If most or all UK extra deaths are due to COVID, you would expect these countries to not have thousands of extra deaths.
Israel is one such country, with a very long and severe enforced lockdown and drummed up panic by the psychopath-in-chief Netanyahu (which once and for all seems to have done something right). I do not have access to mortality data but have read in articles that even with the 284 confirmed COVID deaths, there was no excess mortality at all (or barely so), due to lower death rates from other causes during the lockdown, e.g. traffic accidents, and due to the normal death rate being much higher than 284 over the two relevant months.
So: do panic and lockdown cause thousands of excess deaths? Of course not. Truly bizarre claim.
BTW, I believe Austria is another such country, with panic and lockdown but low infection rate. Anyone has access to Austrian total mortality numbers? Someone living in Austria?

I think this is a sensible analysis. John Burn-Murdoch at the FT has been tracking excess mortality across countries for some time.

The FT dashboard shows excess mortality of 65% in the UK, 10% in Austria and 0% in Israel.

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries fight to contain the pandemic
The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and the number of deaths around the world
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
[First graph below]

A recent story compares excess deaths across 19 countries and shows that locking down at an earlier stage of the spread of the virus was associated with reduced excess death tolls, which is consistent with the disease hypothesis and contrary to the panic hypothesis. This graph shows Israel with a negative excess death rate, as you describe.

UK suffers second-highest death rate from coronavirus
FT analysis of data from 19 countries finds Britain suffering heavy toll from pandemic
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0
[Second and third graph below]

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6861 on: May 31, 2020, 10:23:26 PM »
Ok just tell me exactly and precisely, you or somebody who knows, why cutting funds to WHO during this pandemic is madness? What are they enabling? What are they achieving?
Or is this just anti-Trumpism?

Cutting funds of the WHO is neither better nor worse during than before or after the pandemic.

The WHO is the international organization for health issues, just like we have one for meteorology, for telecoms, for childrens, for cultural goods, for tourism, for labor, an international meter comission... if all these organizations are reduced to nothing, it will make international cooperation much more difficult, which is something that Trump might like. I feel that he prefers to talk  with each country separetely, having each time a stronger position, instead of having multilateral relations like with the EU. After WW2, probably until 9/11, the US were the main superpower and could manage all the international organizations like they wanted, and I see this strategy of refusing multilateral work as a sign of weakness.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6862 on: May 31, 2020, 10:25:04 PM »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6863 on: June 01, 2020, 12:08:05 AM »
The preposterous claim that lockdown and panic cause thousands of excess deaths can be debunked easily using some critical thinking and a scientific approach. Find countries that had a severe lockdown and lots of panic, but a low rate of actual infection.

Why do you assume that all countries are exactly the same, and that everywhere the approach has been exactly the same? Isn't one of the things we don't understand at all that there are such large discrepancies between regions/countries when it comes to mortality, for example?

And why is a doctor who has been on the 'frontline', a so-called 'hero', who criticizes the UK government response and questions the infallible numbers immediately cast aside as an 'idiot' who makes 'preposterous claims'? It may be true, but the fact that it is immediately 'known' to be true says more about the knowers than that which is presumed to be known.

I'll repeat the idiot's last paragraph:

Quote
It will be decreed that all the excess deaths we have seen this year were due to Covid-19. That escape route will be made far easier if no-one has any real idea who actually died of the coronavirus disease, and who did not. Yes, the data on Covid-19 deaths really matters.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6864 on: June 01, 2020, 12:13:51 AM »
The preposterous claim that lockdown and panic cause thousands of excess deaths can be debunked easily using some critical thinking and a scientific approach. Find countries that had a severe lockdown and lots of panic, but a low rate of actual infection. If half the UK excess mortality is due to panic and lockdown, you would expect these other countries to have thousands of extra deaths due to people avoiding hospitals. If most or all UK extra deaths are due to COVID, you would expect these countries to not have thousands of extra deaths.
Israel is one such country, with a very long and severe enforced lockdown and drummed up panic by the psychopath-in-chief Netanyahu (which once and for all seems to have done something right). I do not have access to mortality data but have read in articles that even with the 284 confirmed COVID deaths, there was no excess mortality at all (or barely so), due to lower death rates from other causes during the lockdown, e.g. traffic accidents, and due to the normal death rate being much higher than 284 over the two relevant months.
So: do panic and lockdown cause thousands of excess deaths? Of course not. Truly bizarre claim.
BTW, I believe Austria is another such country, with panic and lockdown but low infection rate. Anyone has access to Austrian total mortality numbers? Someone living in Austria?

The UK panicked, and has had extra mortality as a result. When hospitals panic people die. What else do you expect happens when hospitals panic?

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6865 on: June 01, 2020, 12:15:28 AM »
I made this two months ago. NYC verified at 75% of the lower bound, which solidifies the notion in my eyes that we had about 30% of the city infected in wave #1.



NYC's hospitals were ultimately NOT overwhelmed, and the excess death count of 25K per the NYT verified almost perfectly with what would have been projected at 30% of NYC infected (25,818)

I think this still precludes a second wave more severe than wave 1 in NYC. But I think it also shows that the chart I created based on Imperial College #s is actually probably a good guesstimator for cities in general and that the Imperial College estimates were actually CORRECT in their distribution of CFR amongst the population.

If that is the case, the worst case "primary wave" scenario for most locations is a death toll about 4-5X that which was seen in NYC (so 1.2-1.5% of TOTAL population). In locations where hospitals do not fail, the worst case is about 2.5X the death toll in NYC. I would consider these "upper bounds".

It should be noted above estimates are calibrated for NYC's demographics. However, New York is actually a pretty YOUNG city nationally, and not only is it young, but Manhattan literally has the 2nd lowest male obesity rate in the country behind SF.

The fact that many locations have elderly populations 50% above NYC's (proportionally) AND far heavier populations is an indicator, again IMO, that what happened in NYC could actually be on the "mild" end of the spectrum when we look back twelve months from now.

Do I think Chicago and Philadelphia will see 1% of their TOTAL populations die in the fall wave? No. Could .5% die? Yes. It could actually be higher.

The areas where 1%+ of the total population dies are likely to be smaller towns, where medical systems eventually fail and are overrun, and where large proportional populations of elderly and / or obese adults then die en-masse. In these small towns, I think there is mounting evidence to suggest we could see well OVER 1% of the population die if control is lost (as is likely in most locations EXCEPT NYC, come October).

https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/

It must be said, for the demographics targeted, YES, Spanish Flu was worse in that it hit the young. But this one is way more bizarre because there is a huge segment of infected that never get sick at all. But the segment that does get sick, more may actually die vs. the demographics most impacted by Spanish Flu. There is actually a decent chance this has the potential for IFRs *worse* than Spanish Flu in very many locations, even if it is almost all old people.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6866 on: June 01, 2020, 07:19:08 AM »


The UK panicked, and has had extra mortality as a result. When hospitals panic people die. What else do you expect happens when hospitals panic?

In Hungary, half of all hospitals (cca 30k) beds were emptied to be able to accept covid patients - even though we never had more than 17 dead and 200 official cases on a single day (our total tally so far is cca 500 dead  out of 9 million). I would call that stupid and panicky. I called it stupid back then as well. Still, there is no excess mortality at all. I think reduced traffic accidents counterbalanced the emptying of hospital beds.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2020, 10:40:51 AM by El Cid »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6867 on: June 01, 2020, 10:22:22 AM »

I would call that stupid and panicky. I called it stupid back then as well. Still, there is no excess mortality at all. I think reduced traffic accidents counterbalanced the emptying of hospital beds.

Do you think that without the shutdown there would've been just 500 dead?

Shutting down was the over reaction needed for not implementing social distancing earlier. It worked perfectly anywhere it was implemented correctly. Given seroprevalence, shutdowns might be needed again in winter, unless a cure or vaccine is developed and deployed.
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6868 on: June 01, 2020, 10:48:10 AM »
You misunderstood me (it seems to me that on the virus front we mostly think the same)

I called the emptying of hospitals panicky and stupid (not the lockdown, which I totally supported and even urged much greater haste and more strict lockdowns here). And it was totally stupid, because our leaders at first did not take the whole thing seriously and then panicked much later. When they did empty the beds, in the middle/end of April, it was already obvious that the virus has already peaked here (for a while). Even at the top we never needed more than 2000 beds and still they emptied 30 k + ! They had to send home many people (causing unnecessary suffering) from the hospitals because of this, but even this panicky move did not result in excess mortality.

That is what my comment was about: the panic did NOT cause excess deaths. The virus causes excess deaths. And it will come back soon as people think that it is all over and they are all back to their usual life as if it has miraculously disappeared

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6869 on: June 01, 2020, 11:18:16 AM »
https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusFOS/comments/gucxek/this_video_clearly_shows_the_difference_between/




That is what my comment was about: the panic did NOT cause excess deaths. The virus causes excess deaths. And it will come back soon as people think that it is all over and they are all back to their usual life as if it has miraculously disappeared

Ahh. I was confused. Thanks for the clarification. You were spot on with the 1% IFR. Thanks.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6870 on: June 01, 2020, 12:56:53 PM »
That's a great video! ^^

Meanwhile, in Germany, which you might consider as performing well, enough people are getting infected on a daily basis that 150 of them will die.

Imagine that, a terror group going around killing 150 random people in your country daily. What would you imagine to happen?

Are we overreacting? Is fearing this virus irrational?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6871 on: June 01, 2020, 01:24:25 PM »
indeed bl .. my analogy here in N.I. was the 'troubles' when over 100,000 troops, police and 'specials' endeavoured to prevent the IRA killing a few people every week. No-one ever cried that the govt. was overreacting . With COVID-19 , having experienced the equivalent of 3 care homes a week being blown up and a bunch of doctors and nurses being lined up and shot , facepuke is flooded with complaints at the attempts to save lives .

 and so to Sweden , darling of all facepuke opponents of lockdown .. overtaking France this week to hold 5th place in the rank of highest death rate behind Belgium , Spain , UK and Italy . They will overtake China's total deaths this week . A similar policy would have China's death toll by now in excess of 650,000 . Good job Sweden has a small population ! b.c.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6872 on: June 01, 2020, 01:47:56 PM »
When the WHO called a pandemic it was not yet a global pandemic. If you observe the attachment, prior to March 11, when the WHO declared a Pandemic, the situation reached a temporary plateau.


Cutting funds from the WHO during a 100-year pandemic is madness.

Ok just tell me exactly and precisely, you or somebody who knows, why cutting funds to WHO during this pandemic is madness? What are they enabling? What are they achieving?
Or is this just anti-Trumpism?

I don’t get it. In any case I would accept the argument that the WHO has several beneficial programs in other areas, but their decisions and communication related to COVID-19 have placed their reputation under the ground.

Please somebody explain to me the critical role of Dr. Tedros and Co. in this pandemic, apart from misinformation, decisions not based on science, political attachment to the CCP.
If you want to know what WHO does, I suggest to check on their website.

Let's put the other way. What difference would it have been made if WHO declared a pandemic earlier? Because in the end of the day it's the national leaders who decide on the legislation and allocate resources to combat the disease.

There's a timeline on WHO website showing how they urged governments to respond to crisis https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen

Let's look at what did President Trump, the leader of the most powerful country in the world and the man could be expected to lead the international respond to the crisis, say around March 11th, when the WHO declared pandemic:

March 10: “As you know, it’s about 600 cases, it’s about 26 deaths, within our country. And had we not acted quickly, that number would have been substantially more.”

March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”

March 12: “It’s going to go away. … The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/12/trump-coronavirus-timeline/

The response was no better in Europe. Our national leaders were sitting on their hands entertaining fantasies that the epidemic wouldn't touch their countries.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6873 on: June 01, 2020, 02:10:21 PM »
Quote
highest death rate behind Belgium

Apparently Belgium is counting excess-deaths as Covid deaths. They (and i BTW) think it's the most honest way to count deaths. This is fundamentally a different approach in counting the numbers and can't be compared. So Sweden goes up in your ranking by one.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6874 on: June 01, 2020, 02:37:34 PM »
COVID Survivor Receives $840,000 Hospital Bill for Treatment, With More On the Way
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/covid-survivor-receives-840-000-statement-for-treatment-with-more-on-the-way

CENTENNIAL, Colo. — Robert Dennis spent weeks in the hospital, fighting and beating the coronavirus. He’s now back at home, working his way through recovery, but he’s not done with the virus entirely just yet. The high school teacher just received his first itemized statement for the cost of his care: $840,386.94.

“Seeing that number yesterday for the first bill it kind of took your breath away again,” Robert’s wife Suzanne, who also beat the virus, told Denver7.

The statement covers Robert’s time at Sky Ridge Medical Center, where he was in the intensive care unit and intubated for two weeks.

“His meds just at the hospital are a quarter million dollars,” Suzanne said.

What is not included is Robert’s three weeks at Spalding Rehabilitation Hospital, or his wife’s trips to the emergency room when she was fighting the virus. The couple estimates their total bills to top one and a half million dollars.

“It’s scary. I don’t care how much you have covered. It’s scary to see that kind of number and not really know,” Suzanne said.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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RunningChristo

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6875 on: June 01, 2020, 08:03:28 PM »
In Norway this is ALL for free! And we take this for granted, paying our taxes more or less willingly. Despite this we Even survive and have handled this Corona-era fairly well. 

Personally I struggle to find any ups about living in the Promised land these days. But what do I know, being an European!
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6876 on: June 01, 2020, 09:36:49 PM »
We (the U.S.) have a great propaganda machine that sometimes is not good enough to hide the fact that this country is a complete mess. The streets are not paved with gold. Unfortunately there are enough folks here who do believe how great we tell ourselves we are. We're a joke.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6877 on: June 01, 2020, 10:35:48 PM »
In Norway this is ALL for free! And we take this for granted, paying our taxes more or less willingly. Despite this we Even survive and have handled this Corona-era fairly well. 

Personally I struggle to find any ups about living in the Promised land these days. But what do I know, being an European!

You do pay for it, by paying taxes. I don't know how it is in Norway, but in Sweden this tax is around 12%. It pays for primary care, hospital care, kids dental care (until you are 21) and - for some reason - public transport.

If you don't like the idea that you pay a percentage of your income for something that everyone has an equal right to, then the promised land is for you.

Ken Feldman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6878 on: June 02, 2020, 01:41:28 AM »
COVID Survivor Receives $840,000 Hospital Bill for Treatment, With More On the Way
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/covid-survivor-receives-840-000-statement-for-treatment-with-more-on-the-way

CENTENNIAL, Colo. — Robert Dennis spent weeks in the hospital, fighting and beating the coronavirus. He’s now back at home, working his way through recovery, but he’s not done with the virus entirely just yet. The high school teacher just received his first itemized statement for the cost of his care: $840,386.94.

“Seeing that number yesterday for the first bill it kind of took your breath away again,” Robert’s wife Suzanne, who also beat the virus, told Denver7.

The statement covers Robert’s time at Sky Ridge Medical Center, where he was in the intensive care unit and intubated for two weeks.

“His meds just at the hospital are a quarter million dollars,” Suzanne said.

What is not included is Robert’s three weeks at Spalding Rehabilitation Hospital, or his wife’s trips to the emergency room when she was fighting the virus. The couple estimates their total bills to top one and a half million dollars.

“It’s scary. I don’t care how much you have covered. It’s scary to see that kind of number and not really know,” Suzanne said.



Of course, that's before insurance.  Here's the update with consideration for insurance coverage.

Quote
UPDATE (as of Monday, June 1st): A HealthONE spokesperson tells Denver7 that Mr. Dennis's bill from SkyRidge Medical Center has been settled at a $0 balance.

So the couple received $1.5 million worth of medical benefits at no cost to them.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6879 on: June 02, 2020, 02:21:05 AM »
indeed bl .. my analogy here in N.I. was the 'troubles' when over 100,000 troops, police and 'specials' endeavoured to prevent the IRA killing a few people every week. No-one ever cried that the govt. was overreacting . With COVID-19 , having experienced the equivalent of 3 care homes a week being blown up and a bunch of doctors and nurses being lined up and shot , facepuke is flooded with complaints at the attempts to save lives .

 and so to Sweden , darling of all facepuke opponents of lockdown .. overtaking France this week to hold 5th place in the rank of highest death rate behind Belgium , Spain , UK and Italy . They will overtake China's total deaths this week . A similar policy would have China's death toll by now in excess of 650,000 . Good job Sweden has a small population ! b.c.
The # of fatalities in Wuhan alone was probably about 45K based on many reports, which means any comparison with China is moot (and altogether impossible due to factually inaccurate data).

In Norway this is ALL for free! And we take this for granted, paying our taxes more or less willingly. Despite this we Even survive and have handled this Corona-era fairly well. 

Personally I struggle to find any ups about living in the Promised land these days. But what do I know, being an European!
It is "free" because Norway is a petro-state which subsidizes the welfare of its citizens at the cost of the entire planet's future. So is it really free or is everyone on this forum indirectly paying for it?

We like to make arguments about how consumption is evil etc yet Scandinavian quasi-socialist "utopias" are given a total free pass on this metric.

I am not saying I disagree with sovereign wealth funds but I feel like many leftists and uber-environmentalists applaud the ends in these countries when the means to get there are still evil. The hypocrisy is what bothers me.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6880 on: June 02, 2020, 09:45:44 AM »
Norway is a petro-state which subsidizes the welfare of its citizens at the cost of the entire planet's future

Other petro-states subsidize the welfare of their billionaires at the cost of the entire planet's future, right?

Quote
So is it really free or is everyone on this forum indirectly paying for it?

Do you think it needs a petro-state for free healthcare? Think again.

BTW, RC was referring to free as in "free of charge at service". Not your black and white definition of "free".
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6881 on: June 02, 2020, 02:33:17 PM »
I moved the article on the riots to the Covid consequences thread. Lets keep this one for numbers and other specific information on the disease.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6882 on: June 02, 2020, 06:25:46 PM »
Big analysis of excess and COVID death just released by Public Health England.

Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID19
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/889195/disparities_review.pdf

A lot of it is confirming disparities that had already been noticed.

The BBC's immediate take on it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52889106
Quote
The report says people aged 80 or older are 70 times more likely to die than those under 40.

Working-age men diagnosed with Covid-19 are twice as likely to die as women.

The risk of dying with coronavirus is higher among those living in more deprived parts of the UK.

The report says certain occupations - security guards, taxi or bus drivers and construction workers and social care staff - are at higher risk.

For ethnicity, coronavirus death rates were highest among people of Black and Asian ethnic groups when compared to white British ethnicity.

People of Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, other Asian, Caribbean and other Black ethnicity had between a 10% and 50% higher risk of death when compared to white British.

The thing which struck me is just how stable the COVID-19 certificated deaths are at about 80% of the excess deaths across a whole range of parameters, except location of death. There has been a huge shift from dying in hospital (-7500 which is a 25% drop) to dying at home (+8000/+50%) and dying in care homes (+11000/+70%) for non-COVID reasons. The report doesn't really address why this happened except for a bit of unconvincing speculation that there has been massive underdiagnosis outside hospitals and massive over attribution in hospitals, but I think a lot of it is underuse of emergency facilities by tens of thousands of people thinking the NHS can't treat anything but COVID.

The report on deaths in Week 21 (ending 22 May) is also out today.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending22may2020

Excess deaths 2348, COVID mentions on certificates 2589.
There is a report due out at the end of this week with a detailed analysis of the non-COVID excess. While the non-COVID excess has vanished overall, there was still a significant shift of non-COVID deaths from hospital to private and care homes in week 21.

Non-COVID flu and pneumonia mentions remain at the seasonal norm for a good year, which is what this year was before COVID.

Trends from week of certification are still unreliable due to the Brexit Bank holiday shifting 20% of week 19 reports into week 20, but day of death data shows the same steady but slow decline in COVID deaths was happening in mid-May as the previous month.

...

All private lab tests are now being used to determine who counts for the daily death with COVID figures in England (but not necessarily in the rest of the UK) 445 deaths from the past couple of months were added so the usual confusion around the daily rate when there is a revision is happening.
...

Hospital admissions in England are down 10% on a week ago (436 vs 471), hospital occupancy in the UK is down 15% (7607 vs 8811). This sort of rate has been pretty consistent post peak, and is probably where lockdown easing effects will show up first if the infection rate has started creeping up again.

...

James' Rt2 (post May 11) is 0.99+-0.19, just starting to be constrained a bit by the data rather than the prior. Maybe next week it'll have enough data to say if it isn't as low as it was from March 21 to May 11 (0.83+-0.04) 

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6883 on: June 03, 2020, 12:03:22 AM »
Thanks, Richard, that's interesting. I'm surprised that they speculate about overattribution of COVID-19 in hospitals, as that's taboo (which is a code word for 'idiotic').
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6884 on: June 03, 2020, 05:22:51 AM »
So after, worldwide protest and massive potential for super spreading events, how will this look like in the case data?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6885 on: June 03, 2020, 07:31:37 AM »
That is what I was thinking Archimid!

All those mass gatherings are surely great opportunities for the virus to spread.

On another note: I am a bit surprised that even after a month of "opening", R (estimated from case numbers) remained around 0,8 in most of Europe (almost the same as in April but then we had all those lockdowns). How come?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6886 on: June 03, 2020, 07:48:53 AM »
I think that it's the difference between being inside and outside. So we just have to wait until air conditioning is nice to have and cases might go up again. We might be loosing now an opportunity to go to zero.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6887 on: June 03, 2020, 08:06:08 AM »
How come?

Maybe the summer effect (being more outside, having windows open, etc) combined with some kind of compliance like mask-wearing and physical distancing. Even if these measures are not consequentially followed, some do it, which might bring the R down enough.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6888 on: June 03, 2020, 09:45:29 AM »
Some countries are doing gross manipulation on their numbers too. It's been a week Spain reports one or two dead per day, when the real number, while low, is still in the tens.
They basically declare the COVID-19 that were certified dead in the last 24 hours,  period. Many certifications are lost from the total count this way. They do the same with contagions that also have gone down to ~100's.
They claim that this is the best way to catch outbreaks.
It may be, but they should be reporting a corrected number as well, so that totals verify. They will probably report these corrections as one-day spikes.
The government is also trying to revive the domestic tourism this month and the foreign tourism in July and these numbers suit much better.
The free air really helps, but the craze for the coffee, beer or dinner in tables outside too close to each other, supported by local authorities, is too much. A certain distancing should always be respected, even outside, especially when you can't eat or drink with mask. It sets the stage for bad outbreaks IMO.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6889 on: June 03, 2020, 11:01:51 AM »
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6890 on: June 03, 2020, 01:15:34 PM »
The blood bank random sampling of donors in the Netherlands now shows antibodies in 5,5 percent of them. It was 3 percent in April. At this rate herd immunity will take 2 years. (from AD paper so no link).
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6891 on: June 03, 2020, 03:52:50 PM »
Is someone recovering from an illness likely to rush out and donate blood? Perhaps there is a bit of suppression from who chooses to go out and donate blood for this and perhaps other reasons?

But really, 5% is pretty much what I would expect at this point.

Do you personally know many people who have tested positive, or who had so many of the distinctive symptoms that they were pretty sure they had it?
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6892 on: June 03, 2020, 04:01:20 PM »
That is what I was thinking Archimid!

All those mass gatherings are surely great opportunities for the virus to spread.

On another note: I am a bit surprised that even after a month of "opening", R (estimated from case numbers) remained around 0,8 in most of Europe (almost the same as in April but then we had all those lockdowns). How come?

The data doesn't exist to follow R accurately in real time. Its a mixture of wishcasting and assuming nothing has changed until enough data has accumulated to force a revision.
James' Rt2 (for the period since May 11th) is still sitting on its prior because there isn't enough data of good enough quality to constrain it yet. The smaller the change you are looking to detect and the more there is in the way of reporting delays, weekend and holiday effects etc. in the data, the longer the run of data needed is. It took a bit under 3 weeks to start to see the effect of lockdown dropping R by a factor of 4, to see it going up 50% as a result of easing will take longer, and maybe a lot longer.

Case numbers have all sorts of artefacts from changes in testing rates in them so R from them is even less reliable and harder to spot changes in than using other data. 4 weeks should be long enough to say it hasn't bounced back to 3, but I doubt its long enough to say it hasn't eased up by 50%.

This is how second waves happen, people being too impatient to ease slowly enough to spot how much difference each easing has made, and R is back up to 2 before its obvious its changed from 0.8 and still longer before governments face up to it and are forced to make the hard choices that high and accelerating death rates put to them.

Hospital admissions are the data I expect to give the earliest warning in the UK, but it'll still be hard to spot a significant change in R inside 2 weeks, and to quantify it inside 3 weeks.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6893 on: June 03, 2020, 04:39:37 PM »
Is someone recovering from an illness likely to rush out and donate blood? Perhaps there is a bit of suppression from who chooses to go out and donate blood for this and perhaps other reasons?

But really, 5% is pretty much what I would expect at this point.

Do you personally know many people who have tested positive, or who had so many of the distinctive symptoms that they were pretty sure they had it?

They sampled all blood donors who came in between 10 to 20th of may. There is some rule so you have to be at least 2 weeks recovered after any covid like symptoms. The donors do not get payed so they are a sensible population. They are in no rush to donate if they have had symptoms and probably more likely to look after their health so it is sort of a lower bound.

They idea was to get an approximation of the immunity in the general population.

We miss data on immunity in the young ones which would be interesting to have.

 
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6894 on: June 03, 2020, 04:50:02 PM »
Quote
On another note: I am a bit surprised that even after a month of "opening", R (estimated from case numbers) remained around 0,8 in most of Europe (almost the same as in April but then we had all those lockdowns). How come?

As for Germany at least, there have been several analyses (all in German) showing the enormous delay between infection and official reporting of new cases. According to these analyses, new cases were actually peaking at least one week or 10 days before the lockdown on March 22. I don't know, but I think it's possible, because a) there were some restrictions put in place before that, like the cancelling of mass events, and b) many people (including me and almost all people I know) were already very cautious, strictly followed safety measures like social distancing and sanitation, and greatly reduced our contacts. There were also many homeoffice agreements in place, including in my company.

So, this reduced set of restrictions may already have contributed greatly to slow or halt the spreading. But the delay also means that we are now seeing only the effects of the very limited openings of some weeks ago.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6895 on: June 03, 2020, 05:27:46 PM »
Is this the longest thread on the Forum now?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6896 on: June 03, 2020, 05:49:02 PM »
Yes.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6897 on: June 03, 2020, 10:44:10 PM »
.. so much for the calls to close it down in the first few days .. thanks everyone for the great reporting and discussions . b.c.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6898 on: June 04, 2020, 08:16:51 AM »
Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine
  by Melissa Davey in Melbourne and Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Washington and Sarah Boseley in London


  Excerpts:
The World Health Organization and a number of national governments have changed their Covid-19 policies and treatments on the basis of flawed data from a little-known US healthcare analytics company, also calling into question the integrity of key studies published in some of the world’s most prestigious medical journals.

Data it claims to have legitimately obtained from more than a thousand hospitals worldwide formed the basis of scientific articles that have led to changes in Covid-19 treatment policies in Latin American countries. It was also behind a decision by the WHO and research institutes around the world to halt trials of the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine. On Wednesday, the WHO announced those trials would now resume.

..

The Guardian’s investigation has found:
  • A search of publicly available material suggests several of Surgisphere’s employees have little or no data or scientific background. An employee listed as a science editor appears to be a science fiction author and fantasy artist. Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess.
  • The company’s LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees. This was changed to three employees as of Wednesday.
  • While Surgisphere claims to run one of the largest and fastest hospital databases in the world, it has almost no online presence. Its Twitter handle has fewer than 170 followers, with no posts between October 2017 and March 2020.
  • Until Monday, the “get in touch” link on Surgisphere’s homepage redirected to a WordPress template for a cryptocurrency website, raising questions about how hospitals could easily contact the company to join its database.
  • Desai has been named in three medical malpractice suits, unrelated to the Surgisphere database. In an interview with the Scientist, Desai previously described the allegations as “unfounded”.
  • In 2008, Desai launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website Indiegogo promoting a wearable “next generation human augmentation device that can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”. The device never came to fruition.
  • Desai’s Wikipedia page has been deleted following questions about Surgisphere and his history, first raised in 2010.

-> Much more info in the article, also on The Lancet and other studies.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6899 on: June 04, 2020, 09:03:48 AM »
France, Sweden, Brazil, Peru, and Chile are in deep trouble. US and Iran seem to enter the second wave.

Sweden surpassed France in deaths per capita.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain