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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 286280 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7250 on: June 29, 2020, 12:09:45 AM »
So the conclusion is that the US spike is more due to demonstratIons, ...

Not supported by the evidence ... from above ... https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg270907.html#msg270907

Quote
... The rapid identification of restaurant clusters contrasts with the continuing uncertainty about infections stemming from protests against racially biased policing, which have been held in more than 2,000 U.S. cities since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25. The Times has reached out to dozens of cities that have had large protests, finding some small case groupings but no major clusters.

Thus far, the effort has found about 50 infections connected to protests, including members of the National Guard in Nebraska, Minnesota and Washington, D.C

... also, no spikes in New York,  Manhattan or the Bronx

So the conclusion is that the US spike is more due ...  to hasty reopening, or both, together with the usual US factors (not wanting to lose the job, not wanting to go the doc to avoid a bill, not having papers).

You forgot one ... POOR LEADERSHIP
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7251 on: June 29, 2020, 12:15:33 AM »
Re US death rates, I will take the other side of that bet. We are still seeing the first wave signal, and it is quite obvious that the initial crest of that wave was much higher than the official data shows. The second wave just started, but the signal should definitely be visible in the second half of July.
Yes, treatment protocols are better, and many older people are protecting themselves, but this will not be enough IMHO.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7252 on: June 29, 2020, 12:19:40 AM »
^ Deaths are a trailing indicator.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7253 on: June 29, 2020, 02:12:49 AM »
So the conclusion is that the US spike is more due to demonstratIons, ...

Not supported by the evidence ... from above ... https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg270907.html#msg270907

Quote
... The rapid identification of restaurant clusters contrasts with the continuing uncertainty about infections stemming from protests against racially biased policing, which have been held in more than 2,000 U.S. cities since the death of George Floyd in police custody on May 25. The Times has reached out to dozens of cities that have had large protests, finding some small case groupings but no major clusters.

Thus far, the effort has found about 50 infections connected to protests, including members of the National Guard in Nebraska, Minnesota and Washington, D.C

... also, no spikes in New York,  Manhattan or the Bronx

So the conclusion is that the US spike is more due ...  to hasty reopening, or both, together with the usual US factors (not wanting to lose the job, not wanting to go the doc to avoid a bill, not having papers).

You forgot one ... POOR LEADERSHIP
NYC is not spiking because we have practical herd immunity. Protests are a factor in spread everywhere else.

Navajo Nation now up to IFR of .21% / 362 deaths.

« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 03:11:42 AM by bbr2315 »

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7254 on: June 29, 2020, 05:57:27 AM »
1 square mile. 1 million people. 79 deaths.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-24/dharavi-slum-in-mumbai-india-contained-covid-19

I have been there, and have known people who lived there.  Politically very aware, they vote. And more. There are periodic attempts by developers to gentrify, whereupon the populace pours into the streets, shuts down the railways and the thoroughfares, freeze the city,  and makes em change their mind.

Maximum Slum in Maximum City. Good luck to them.

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7255 on: June 29, 2020, 09:36:55 AM »
Interesting!

The Use of Povidone Iodine Nasal Spray and Mouthwash During the Current COVID-19 Pandemic May Reduce Cross Infection and Protect Healthcare Workers

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3563092

Quote
In early SARS-CoV-2 infection, viral titres of greater than 107/mL in saliva and nasal mucous can be found; minimisation of these titres should help to reduce cross infection. Povidone-iodine (PVP-I) disinfectant has better anti-viral activity than other antiseptics and has already been proven to be an extremely effective virucide in vitro against severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV). Its in vivo virucidal activity is unknown, but it retains its antimicrobial activity against bacteria in vivo intraorally and one application can reduce oral microbial flora for greater than 3 hours.

PVP-I disinfectant has been shown to be safe when administered to the nasal cavity and as a mouthwash.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7256 on: June 29, 2020, 11:41:16 AM »
A thorough analysis of C-19 in Sweden by a competent statistician, Nic Lewis, he concludes:

"Notwithstanding that a month ago antibodies were only detected in 6.3% of the Swedish population, the declining death rate since mid-May strongly suggests that the herd immunity threshold had been surpassed in the three largest regions, and in Sweden as a whole, by the end of April.

In the absence of a change in trends, it seems likely that the epidemic will peter out after a thousand or so more deaths, implying an overall infection fatality rate of 0.06% of the population (0.04% excluding COVID-19 deaths of people in care homes). This is broadly comparable to excess deaths from influenza infections over two successive above-average seasons, such as 2016–17 plus 2017–18."

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-analysis/

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7257 on: June 29, 2020, 12:00:14 PM »

"Notwithstanding that a month ago antibodies were only detected in 6.3% of the Swedish population,

In the absence of a change in trends, it seems likely that the epidemic will peter out after a thousand or so more deaths

LOL at the caveats.

Edit:

Herd immunity was not reached . Sweden reached an R of one at current temperatures and social distancing guidelines.

I'm not doubting the statistics are correct.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7258 on: June 29, 2020, 12:06:47 PM »
A thorough analysis of C-19 in Sweden by a competent statistician, Nic Lewis, he concludes:

"Notwithstanding that a month ago antibodies were only detected in 6.3% of the Swedish population, the declining death rate since mid-May strongly suggests that the herd immunity threshold had been surpassed in the three largest regions, and in Sweden as a whole, by the end of April.

In the absence of a change in trends, it seems likely that the epidemic will peter out after a thousand or so more deaths, implying an overall infection fatality rate of 0.06% of the population (0.04% excluding COVID-19 deaths of people in care homes). This is broadly comparable to excess deaths from influenza infections over two successive above-average seasons, such as 2016–17 plus 2017–18."

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-analysis/

He has underestimated the change in behaviour in his analysis. The official advice is not correctly characterized as "trusting people to make their own individual decisions regarding their behaviour, informed by their particular circumstances".

So I am afraid that if we go back to the old normal, that there is still a huge reservoir of uninfected people. I am pretty sure that I am one of them. Here in the South of Sweden there have not been many cases. The number of excess deaths here is lower than in Copenhagen.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7259 on: June 29, 2020, 02:20:13 PM »
Covid-19 Drug Remdesivir to Cost $3,120 for Typical Patient on Private Insurance
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/covid-19-drug-remdesivir-to-cost-3-120-for-typical-patient-on-private-insurance-11593428402

Gilead Sciences Inc. detailed its pricing plans for Covid-19 drug remdesivir, saying it will charge U.S. hospitals $3,120 for a typical patient with commercial insurance.

The drugmaker on Monday disclosed its pricing plans as it prepares to begin charging for the drug in July. The U.S. has been distributing remdesivir donated by Gilead since the drug was authorized for emergency use in May.

Under the company’s plans, Gilead will charge a higher price for patients with private insurance in the U.S., and a lower price for U.S. government health programs like Medicare and all other developed countries that insure their patients directly.

The government price will be $390 per dose or $2,340 per patient for the shortest treatment course and $4,290 for a longer treatment course.

Gilead said in the U.S. it will charge nongovernment buyers such as hospitals about $520 per dose, or a third more than the government price, for patients who are commercially insured. That works out to $3,120 for a patient getting the shorter, more common course of treatment, and $5,720 for the longer treatment duration.

The U.S. is the only developed country where Gilead will charge two prices, Gilead Chief Executive Daniel O’Day said in an interview. In other nations, governments negotiate drug prices directly with drugmakers. “The logic is that we wanted a single government price around the developed world,” Mr. O’Day said.

... Covid-19 patients get two doses of remdesivir by infusion on the first day, and one dose daily afterward. The shortest treatment course is five days, while a longer treatment course takes 10 days.

Currently, 90% to 95% of patients receive five-day treatment courses, Mr. O’Day said.

In July, Gilead will start charging for the drug, but federal and state officials will continue deciding which hospitals receive it. In September, Gilead expects to have enough supply to meet demand and will distribute the drug in the same way it distributes other medicines.

One issue that has already factored into debate over what remdesivir should cost is the U.S. government’s role in funding its development.

The NIAID funded the study that showed it sped the recovery of hospitalized Covid-19 patients, and expects to spend at least $30 million on the study through the end of the fiscal year, an NIAID spokesman said in February.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Gray-Wolf

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7260 on: June 29, 2020, 03:13:05 PM »
We are seeing reports out of the U.S. that the Covid-19 virus has undergone some changes/drift

I'm hearing that the surface protein spikes have increased 4 to 5 fold?

We also see the average age of folk infected drop from 63 to 33

This increase in the number of 'Grappling Hooks' would suggest more folk suffering infections that are more serious as more of the virii are able to infect cells?

If I also hear of any increase in cytokine storm impacts on these younger folk suffering infection (with their 'youthful' immune systems) I may have to start thinking that this is what we saw occurring in 1918 and not some 'recombination' of a 'drifted' clade from the camps in Europe with the original clade still circulating in the U.S. camps?

If 'Novel viruses' 'drift' in similar ways to improve their chances of breeding via infection then maybe Humans have a 'kill switch' built in to stop the spread of such a virus throughout the population?

Obviously younger folk, being more active & social, will tend to offer more opportunities to the virus to spread so maybe we evolved the 'cytokine storm' to poleaxe such folk & so limit their spreading of the virus?
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Phoenix

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7261 on: June 29, 2020, 05:17:18 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/fauci-us-unlikely-achieve-herd-immunity-coronavirus-even-with-

Fauci addressing two obstacles to eventual US herd immunity

1) Anti-vaxxers - US has a high proportion of anti-science community. Maybe as much as 1/3 would refuse a vaccine.

2) Vaccine effectiveness. Says a 70-75% effectiveness rate might be the best we can hope for.

If 2/3 * 75% are immune, that's half. The virus would keep spreading.




blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7262 on: June 29, 2020, 05:24:26 PM »
Yep, physical distancing, mask-wearing, and the avoidance of mass gatherings are here to stay.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7263 on: June 29, 2020, 07:18:26 PM »
Phoenix, I saw that sad set of statistics, too.

One number left out, though, is the small but growing percentage of the population that has already had the virus.

And perhaps with a new president sending out consistent messaging, we could get the non-vaccinator numbers down by a few percentage points, too.

But yeah, it looks pretty grim.

Bbbut, at least... WE'RE STILL NUMBER ONE!!  ;D :-\  >:(
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7264 on: June 29, 2020, 07:52:05 PM »
Quote
680 000 Swedes are currently ill. Of those, 260 000 have been ill for longer than 10 weeks


Link >> https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1277129511839072257
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7265 on: June 29, 2020, 10:08:57 PM »
Quote
680 000 Swedes are currently ill. Of those, 260 000 have been ill for longer than 10 weeks


Link >> https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1277129511839072257

It is from here: https://novus.se/novus-coronastatus/

I don't quite follow, but I do not see anybody in my circles who is ill now. Or a cold, or whatever. People mostly complain about the heat/humidity end of last week. And went swimming.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7266 on: June 29, 2020, 11:35:14 PM »
Social Distancing Accepted When People Understand Exponential Growth
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-coronavirus-social-distancing-people-exponential.html

Researchers from the Social Cognition Center Cologne at the University of Cologne and from the University of Bremen report that participants in three experiments, each involving more than 500 adults in the United States, tended to assume the number of COVID-19 cases grew linearly with time, rather than exponentially. As a result, they underestimated actual virus growth.

Interventions designed to help people avoid this bias led to an improved understanding of virus growth and increased support for social distancing measures compared with participants who did not receive such instructions.

... The most effective way to stem the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 is what has come to be known as 'social distancing.' But the introduction of such measures is hampered by the fact that a sizeable part of the population fails to see their need. Many social scientists see the root of this perception in what they call the exponential growth bias. "In general, people have difficulty understanding exponential growth and erroneously interpret it in linear terms instead," explains first author Joris Lammers. The result is a gross underestimation of the growth of the infection rate and a misunderstanding of the potential to slow it down through social distancing. "Our current work tests the role of exponential growth bias in shaping the public's view on social distancing to contain the coronavirus's spreading."

Three studies were conducted during the mass spreading of the virus in the United States toward the end of March 2020. The first study focused on participants' understandings of linear growth, showing that many Americans mistakenly perceive the virus's exponential growth in linear terms. Interestingly, political orientation also played a role: conservatives were more prone to this misunderstanding than liberals.

Studies 2 and 3 showed that instructing people to avoid the exponential growth bias significantly increases correct perceptions of the virus's growth and thereby support for social distancing.
"Together, these results show the importance of statistical literacy to recruit support for fighting pandemics such as the coronavirus," said Lammers.

"Our results stand in contrast to earlier literature showing that the exponential growth bias is difficult to overcome," he explained. "The reason for this is that the current study focuses on a threat with great personal relevance and media presence, which likely increases subjective availability and thus the estimated probability of the risk."



Joris Lammers et al, Correcting misperceptions of exponential coronavirus growth increases support for social distancing, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020)
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/2006048117
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7267 on: June 29, 2020, 11:38:17 PM »
Antiviral Drug Combo Doesn't Help Coronavirus Patients, UK Study Shows
https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/no-clinical-benefit-from-use-of-lopinavir-ritonavir-in-hospitalised-covid-19-patients-studied-in-recovery

A combination of two HIV drugs did not help hospitalized patients better recover from coronavirus infections, UK researchers reported Monday.

The combination of lopinavir and ritonavir is being tested by several groups, but preliminary results from a large, ongoing UK study called the Recovery trial found the antiviral drugs did not help patients hospitalized for treatment for Covid-19.

... “There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality,” the team wrote on the Recovery website. About 22% of patients who got the two drugs died, compared to 21% of those who did not.

“There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on the risk of progression to mechanical ventilation or length of hospital stay,” the team added.

------------------------------

Classroom Contact Could Lead to Transmission of Covid-19, CDC Research Suggests
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-1802_article

Classroom interaction between a teacher and students could lead to Covid-19 transmission, according to a small study by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researchers published Monday in Emerging Infectious Diseases.

The report details a case where a teacher infected with Covid-19 may have infected students after returning to the classroom while still experiencing symptoms. The teacher first had symptoms, including a headache, sore throat and fatigue, while traveling in Europe in late February. The teacher returned to school while still experiencing symptoms and taught 16 classes of 30 or less students. After the teacher’s Covid-19 test came back positive on March 1, all students were told to quarantine at home. Once the quarantine was over, 21 students from the teacher’s classes took part in the research. The students had a median age of 17.

Ten of the teacher’s classes were described as “interactive” classes, in which the teacher walked around and spoke directly with students. Out of five students who had been in “interactive” classes, two had antibody test results that suggested they had been infected. One of those students experienced symptoms for nine days, include muscle aches, runny nose and cough and the other student had no symptoms. Two other students from the five in the “interactive” classes had no serological evidence that suggested they had been infected in the past, but they had reported mild symptoms – one had fever and headache that lasted one day, and another had a runny nose that lasted one day.

Of the 16 students who participated in the non-interactive classes – where the teacher sat mostly in one location and had limited close interaction with students — seven reported symptoms, including sore throat, headache, runny nose and muscle pain. But antibody tests found no evidence of a previous Covid-19 infection.

“Widespread school closures have mostly eliminated the risk for classroom transmission,” the report says. “However, these results suggest that classroom interaction between an infected teacher and students might result in virus transmission.”

------------------------------
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 11:50:18 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7268 on: June 30, 2020, 12:51:36 AM »
Los Angeles County Could Run Out of Hospital Beds in Weeks, Officials Warn
https://www.axios.com/los-angeles-county-coronavirus-hospital-beds-9e16bc53-404e-4753-a91f-b97a6b731728.html

Health officials in Los Angeles County are sounding the alarm over a sudden and rapid surge in new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, the LA Times reports.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-29/l-a-county-issues-dire-warning-amid-alarming-increases-in-coronavirus

Why it matters: The uptick has the potential to overwhelm the area's medical system, with health officials now projecting that LA County could run out of hospital beds in two to three weeks, according to the Times. Intensive care unit beds could reach their capacity sometime in July.

Between the lines: The recent spike has coincided with the relaxing of restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of the virus. California is in the third phase of Gov. Gavin Newsom's four-stage plan to reopen the state.

- The transmission rate has increased since the state began easing the rules: In early May, every person who contracted the virus infected fewer than one person, on average. Now, each person with the virus infects an average of 1.26 people.

- Newsom on Sunday ordered LA County and six others to close bars amid the new surge in cases.

What they're saying: “We are seeing an increase in transmission. We’re seeing more people get sick and go into the hospital. This is very much a change in the trajectory of the epidemic over the past several days. It’s a change for the worse and a cause for concern,” said Christina Ghaly, LA County’s director of health services.

"In the last seven days, we've seen a 45% increase in the total number of cases that have tested positive in the state of California," Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a press conference on Monday.

- Assuming the rate of transmission continues at the current rate, "we are at risk of running out of hospital beds if we don’t take steps to increase that capacity within the next two to three weeks,” said Roger Lewis, director of the COVID-19 demand modeling unit for LA County.

- Lewis also pointed out that it can take three to four weeks after initial exposure for patients to become sick enough to be hospitalized. "So even if steps are taken immediately to reduce the spread in the community, we do expect to see a continued uptick in the next two to four weeks,” he added.

------------------------------------

This Coronavirus Mutation Has Taken Over the World. Scientists Are Trying to Understand Why.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/this-coronavirus-mutation-has-taken-over-the-world-scientists-are-trying-to-understand-why/ar-BB166pjJ



... At least four laboratory experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious, although none of that work has been peer-reviewed. Another unpublished study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory asserts that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others.

The mutation doesn’t appear to make people sicker, but a growing number of scientists worry that it has made the virus more contagious.

“The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant’s] spread in Europe and the U.S. was really fast,” said Hyeryun Choe, a virologist at Scripps Research and a lead author of an unpublished study on the G variant’s enhanced infectiousness in laboratory cell cultures. “This is not just accidental.”

... Studying both versions of the gene using a proxy virus in a petri dish of human cells, Choe and her colleagues found that viruses with the G variant had more spike proteins, and the outer parts of those proteins were less likely to break off. This made the virus approximately 10 times more infectious in the lab experiment.



The D614G mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein reduces S1 shedding and increases infectivity 
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.148726v1

The D614G mutation in SARS-CoV-2 Spike increases transduction of multiple human cell type
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.14.151357v1

------------------------------------

WHO Warns Coronavirus Pandemic is Speeding Up as Countries Ease Lockdown Rules: 'The Worst is Yet to Come'
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/29/who-warns-coronavirus-pandemic-is-speeding-up-as-countries-ease-lockdown-rules.html

"Although many countries have made some progress, globally, the pandemic is actually speeding up," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a virtual news conference. "We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives, but the hard reality is that this is not even close to being over."

The virus has infected more than 10.1 million people around the world and killed at least 502,634 people, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

"The single most important intervention is ... tracing and quarantine contacts," he said. "Six months since the virus started, it could be like a broken record to say exactly the same thing, but the same thing works. Test, test, isolate, quarantine cases."
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 02:28:37 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7269 on: June 30, 2020, 01:39:20 AM »
Serbia has allegedly 6,4% antibodies. Since they are completely open for 2 months now, with parties, football games, no distancing etc. I assume it is fair to say that seems more than plausible. They have almost 7mio people so some 440k-445k had it. Probably even more now that summer and sports kicked in.

But fhen I checked the number of deaths and it is very surprising. 274 so far.  What??
I would take 0.3% IFR as plausible, even 0,2% (let's say weaker mutation), even 0,1%, but 0.06% is fascinating. Can someone confirm is this possible. I mean beside the obvious "they don't count and report deaths the right way", that one I get on my own. I mean can someone comment with some reasoning.

Edit: They had 24/7 curfew for 65+ for  2 months, but I don''t know if that alone explains it
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 01:44:58 AM by colchonero »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7270 on: June 30, 2020, 02:57:39 AM »
It seems they keep 2 sets of books ...

Serbia Under-Reported COVID-19 Deaths and Infections, Data Shows
https://balkaninsight.com/2020/06/22/serbia-under-reported-covid-19-deaths-and-infections-data-shows/

In  the period from March 19 to June 1 this year, a total of 632 people died in Serbia who had tested positive for the coronavirus – more than twice as many as the officially announced number of 244 deaths in that period, BIRN has learned by analysing data obtained from the state’s COVID-19 information system.

Another data set from the state’s COVID-19 information system also indicates that the number of people who became infected in Serbia from June 17 to June 20 was at least 300 per day.

This is far more than the officially announced figures, which recorded a maximum of 97 new cases in a single day during that period. Serbia held elections on Sunday in the midst of this apparent increase in infections.

BIRN conducted a detailed analysis of the data from the information system, focusing on the patients who died whose COVID-19 test results were marked as positive.

The biggest difference in the number of deaths was noted in the Clinical Centre in Nis, Serbian town in southern Serbia, where according to officially published data, 77 patients died of the virus.

However, the data from the information system that BIRN had access to shows that 243 people died whose COVID-19 test results were marked as positive – 166 more than officially registered as COVID-19 deaths.

In the Dragisa Misovic Clinical Centre in the capital Belgrade, the number of people who died who had previously tested positive for COVID-19 was 94, while the state announced 39 deaths.

In several other clinical centres in Belgrade, there were also significant discrepancies in the mortality figures. A total of 32 people who had tested positive for COVID-19 were officially reported to have died at the Zemun Clinical Centre, while the system contains data on 88 deaths.

A total of 14 patients COVID-19 died at Belgrade’s Zvezdara Clinical Centre according to official figures, but the system shows a total of 59 deaths of infected patients.

At the Clinical Centre of Serbia, officials said that 33 people died, but the state’s COVID-19 database shows that there were 50 deaths of infected patients.

On April 12, the state announced that six people had died of the virus, but the information system registered 23 deaths of people who had tested positive for the virus.

The following day, it was announced that five patients had died, but 23 deaths of infected patients were registered in the system.

On April 15, when it was officially announced that five had died, the system shows that there were 20 deaths of infected patients.

....
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7271 on: June 30, 2020, 03:52:47 AM »
Swine Flu Strain With Human Pandemic Potential Increasingly Found in Chinese Pigs
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/swine-flu-strain-human-pandemic-potential-increasingly-found-chinese-pigs

What the world doesn’t need now is a pandemic on top of a pandemic. So a new finding that Chinese pigs are more and more frequently becoming infected with a strain of influenza that has the potential to jump to humans has infectious disease researchers worldwide taking serious notice.

When multiple strains of influenza viruses infect the same pig, they can easily swap genes, a process known as “reassortment.” The new study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focuses on an influenza virus dubbed G4. The virus is a unique blend of three lineages: one similar to strains found in European and Asian birds, the H1N1 strain that caused the 2009 pandemic, and a North American H1N1 that has genes from avian, human, and pig influenza viruses.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117

The G4 variant is especially concerning because its core is an avian influenza virus—to which humans have no immunity—with bits of mammalian strains mixed in. “From the data presented, it appears that this is a swine influenza virus that is poised to emerge in humans,” says Edward Holmes, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Sydney who studies pathogens. “Clearly this situation needs to be monitored very closely.”

As part of a project to identify potential pandemic influenza strains, a team led by Liu Jinhua from the China Agricultural University (CAU) analyzed nearly 30,000 nasal swabs taken from pigs at slaughterhouses in 10 Chinese provinces, and another 1000 swabs from pigs with respiratory symptoms seen at their school’s veterinary teaching hospital. The swabs, collected between 2011 and 2018, yielded 179 swine influenza viruses, the vast majority of which were G4 or one of five other G strains from the Eurasian avianlike lineage. “G4 virus has shown a sharp increase since 2016, and is the predominant genotype in circulation in pigs detected across at least 10 provinces,” they write.

Sun Honglei, the paper’s first author, says G4’s inclusion of genes from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic “may promote the virus adaptation” that leads to human-to-human transmission. Therefore, “It’s necessary to strengthen the surveillance” of Chinese pigs for influenza viruses, says Sun, also at CAU.

In the paper, Sun and colleagues—including George Gao, head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention—describe lab dish studies that show how G4s have become adept at infecting and copying themselves in human airway epithelial cells. The viruses also readily infected and transmitted between ferrets, a popular animal model used to study human influenza. The researchers found antibodies to the G4 strain in 4.4% of 230 people studied in a household survey—and the rate more than doubled in swine workers.

... Ideally, Nelson says, we would produce a human G4 vaccine and have it in the stockpile, but that’s an involved process that requires substantial funding. “We need to be vigilant about other infectious disease threats even as COVID is going on because viruses have no interest in whether we’re already having another pandemic,” Nelson says.

Prevalent Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus with 2009 pandemic viral genes facilitating human infection, PNAS, 2020
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 04:03:10 AM by vox_mundi »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7272 on: June 30, 2020, 07:08:25 AM »
Yep, physical distancing, mask-wearing, and the avoidance of mass gatherings are here to stay.

I don't know where you mean with "here" but in New Zealand the situation is much better because of having successfully eleminated the virus.

From: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/jacinda-ardern-decries-dangerous-calls-to-reopen-new-zealand-borders-coronavirus
  by Charlotte Graham-McLay


edit: added writer of article
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7273 on: June 30, 2020, 07:43:51 AM »
Sweden: Sweden by now has about 10%+ infected. This is a very far cry from her immunity. Sweden, with the help of good weather just like all other European countries pushed down R to between 0,8-1,2. This is NOT herd immunity. Why doesn't this "statistician" say that China also reached herd immunity since they almost elimiated the disease. What a pile of bull....

Serbia: No, Serbia does NOT have 6.4% immune. Not at all. Spain and Italy and Belgium has that many. With many times the dead than the Serbs even with undercounting in Serbia. Serbs are not special, their mortality is also 1% just like everyweher else. They have less than 1% immune.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7274 on: June 30, 2020, 08:57:49 AM »
Covid-19 Superspreading Events Database

Quote
Nearly all SSEs in the database took place indoors: the exceptions are SSEs that took place in settings with both indoor and outdoor elements, with it not being clear if transmission there occurred indoors or outdoors

The vast majority took place in settings where people were essentially confined together, indoors, for a prolonged period (for example, nursing homes, prisons, cruise ships, worker housing)

The great majority of SSEs happened during flu season in that location while many SSEs that occurred outside of flu season occurred in meat processing plants

Food processing plants where temperatures are kept very low (meat, dairy, frozen foods) seem particularly vulnerable to SSEs compared to other types of factories and plants where very few SSEs occurred

Link >> https://medium.com/@codecodekoen/covid-19-superspreading-events-database-4c0a7aa2342b
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7275 on: June 30, 2020, 10:18:19 AM »
Sweden: Sweden by now has about 10%+ infected. This is a very far cry from her immunity. Sweden, with the help of good weather just like all other European countries pushed down R to between 0,8-1,2. This is NOT herd immunity. Why doesn't this "statistician" say that China also reached herd immunity since they almost elimiated the disease. What a pile of bull....

Serbia: No, Serbia does NOT have 6.4% immune. Not at all. Spain and Italy and Belgium has that many. With many times the dead than the Serbs even with undercounting in Serbia. Serbs are not special, their mortality is also 1% just like everyweher else. They have less than 1% immune.

I don't buy that. 1. Switzerland is for days now blaming people that came from vacation in Serbia to have brought covid back. 2. Serbia has completely open borders for everybody with no requirements for almost 2 months now. .They had no restrictions (as vox munidi wrote it'  because of the elections). So there were full stadiums(football league and Djokovic's tournament ), probably political rallies, election lines, and also parties everywhere. No masks no distancing, nothing. So those 6,4% are more than expected. Actually if it wasn't that high,I would highly doubt those who say covid is easily transmissable. That's not like Sweden, where they have no restrictions, but no huge gatherings, at every corner, where it turns out, is the best placefor covid to transmit (as shown for Atalanta-Valencia, Liverpool-Atletico games)

It's way more likely that they decided to hide the data on the deaths, because of the elections, and they have 630 deaths. Let's say that number is now 700 That seems to be around 0.2 IFR. As I said, because of the 24/7 curfew for elderly, maybe weaker mutation, and also worldometers now has only 1% of currently infected, in a critical condition. That number was way higher in  March, it's because of more testing but probably also because of the better treatment now than back then, all over the world.

 So that one I can believe(like the Ischgl one), and is probably in line with other Balkan states like Bosnia, North Macedonia cause they have same number of deaths officially, but are way smaller. Croatia has tourism, and had elections so they probably did the same thing, but 0.06% was shocking from my point of view. Thanks vox mundi :)!
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 10:34:54 AM by colchonero »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7276 on: June 30, 2020, 01:14:42 PM »
Coronavirus Pandemic Led to Surge in Alzheimer’s Deaths
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-pandemic-led-to-surge-in-alzheimers-deaths-11593345601

At least 15,000 more Americans have died in recent months from Alzheimer’s disease and dementia than otherwise would have, health officials believe, pointing to how the coronavirus pandemic has exacted a higher fatality toll than official numbers have shown.

... Quite a coincidence.
"The death toll began to climb sharply in mid-March, and by mid-April about 250 extra people with some form of dementia were dying each day, according to CDC estimates."

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1277636067328327680

... also: UK Excess Alzheimer's deaths

Dementia increases are so sharp it’s implausible that they are unrelated to COVID

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268824588835794944

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7277 on: June 30, 2020, 07:01:27 PM »
Yep, physical distancing, mask-wearing, and the avoidance of mass gatherings are here to stay.

I don't know where you mean with "here" but in New Zealand the situation is much better because of having successfully eleminated the virus.

From: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/jacinda-ardern-decries-dangerous-calls-to-reopen-new-zealand-borders-coronavirus

NZ is an island nation with the means to do extensive contact tracing. 

Iceland has also been quite successful.

Obviously, living on an island with restricted international and domestic travel will help stop the spread of this virus.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7278 on: June 30, 2020, 08:04:48 PM »
Wow.

Mexico City as a district has a population roughly the size of NYC (8.9 vs. 8.4M).

NYT reports CDMX has 17,300 excess deaths through 6/7 with confirmed total of only 3,679 through then.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

With ~6,500 confirmed deaths reported in CDMX as of 6/29 it is possible that the excess deaths in CDMX have now exceeded NYC on both a raw and per capita basis. If the ratio remains the same to end of June, CDMX is now at 30,500+ excess deaths or an IFR of .34%.

This is further proof NYC was NOT a one-off and in fact may have been a best case scenario. IF CDMX is indeed at .34% IFR already a .5% IFR in a major city is now within reach during what is likely a primary wave of COVID.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7279 on: June 30, 2020, 11:30:54 PM »
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1

Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7280 on: July 01, 2020, 01:02:54 AM »
US Buys Up World Stock of Key Covid-19 Drug Remdesivir
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

The US has bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of one of the two drugs proven to work against Covid-19, leaving none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world.

The first 140,000 doses, supplied to drug trials around the world, have been used up. The Trump administration has now bought more than 500,000 doses, which is all of Gilead’s production for July and 90% of August and September.

Experts and campaigners are alarmed both by the US unilateral action on remdesivir and the wider implications, for instance in the event of a vaccine becoming available. The Trump administration has already shown that it is prepared to outbid and outmanoeuvre all other countries to secure the medical supplies it needs for the US.

The drug, which was invented for Ebola but failed to work, is under patent to Gilead, which means no other company in wealthy countries can make it. The cost is around $3,200 per treatment of six doses, according to the US government statement.

The deal was announced as it became clear that the pandemic in the US is spiralling out of control. Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading public health expert and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the Senate the US was sliding backwards.

“We are going in the wrong direction,” said Fauci. Last week the US saw a new daily record of 40,000 new coronavirus cases in one day. “I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around,” he said. He could not provide an estimated death toll, but said: “It is going to be very disturbing, I guarantee you that.”

... Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau warned there could be unintended negative consequences if the US continued to outbid its allies. “We know it is in both of our interests to work collaboratively and cooperatively to keep our citizens safe,” he said. The Trump administration has also invoked the Defense Production Act to block some medical goods made in the US from being sent abroad.

... The drug has been watched eagerly for the last five months, Dr Andrew Hill, senior visiting research fellow at Liverpool University said, yet there was no mechanism to ensure a supply outside the US. “Imagine this was a vaccine,” he said. “That would be a firestorm. But perhaps this is a taste of things to come.”

The UK and the EU can secure supplies of this and other drugs during the pandemic, through what is known as a compulsory licence, which overrides the intellectual property rights of the company. That would allow the UK government to buy from generic companies in Bangladesh or India, where Gilead’s patent is not recognised. ...  "It is a question of what countries are prepared to do if this becomes a problem,” said Hill.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7281 on: July 01, 2020, 01:05:53 AM »
COVID-19 Causes 'Hyperactivity' in Blood-clotting Cells
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-covid-hyperactivity-blood-clotting-cells.html

Researchers found that inflammatory proteins produced during infection significantly alter the function of platelets, making them "hyperactive" and more prone to form dangerous and potentially deadly blood clots.

... Using differential gene analysis, the researchers found that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, appears to trigger genetic changes in platelets. In laboratory studies, they studied platelet aggregation, an important component of blood clot formation, and observed COVID-19 platelets aggregated more readily. They also noted that these changes significantly altered how platelets interacted with the immune system, likely contributing to inflammation of the respiratory tract that may, in turn, result in more severe lung injury.

Surprisingly, Campbell and his colleagues didn't detect evidence of the virus in the vast majority of platelets, suggesting that it could be promoting the genetic changes within these cells indirectly.

One possible mechanism is inflammation, according to Bhanu Kanth Manne, Ph.D., one of the study's lead authors and a research associate with the University of Utah Molecular Medicine Program (U2M2). In theory, inflammation caused by COVID-19 could affect megakaryocytes, the cells that produce platelets. As a result, critical genetic alterations are passed down from megakaryocytes to the platelets, which, in turn, make them hyperactive.

In test tube studies, the researchers found that pre-treating platelets from SARS-CoV-2 infected patients with aspirin did prevent this hyperactivity.

Bhanu Kanth Manne et al. Platelet Gene Expression and Function in COVID-19 Patients, Blood (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.2020007214

---------------------------------------
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7282 on: July 01, 2020, 01:07:36 AM »
Fauci Says New US Coronavirus Cases Could Hit 100,000 a Day in Stark Warning to Senate
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jun/30/russian-bounty-payments-donald-trump-briefing-afghanistan-live-updates

Infectious diseases expert and White House coronavirus task force member Anthony Fauci just gave a stark warning to the public in the middle of his testimony to the US Senate just now.

“I’m very concerned about what is going on right now,” he said, referring to a dangerous surge in new coronavirus cases in the US, particularly in the south and west.

“I’m very concerned. We are going in the wrong direction, if you look at the figures for new cases – the US is sliding backwards on its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. We need to do something about this and we need to do it quick. We are not in total control right now,” he said.

Fauci just said, in testimony before committee, that he fears that the rate will rise dramatically.

“I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around.”

Fauci added about death and infection rates going forward: It’s going to be very disturbing … it could get really bad.”

---------------------------------

Eight States Added to New York Governor's Quarantine Order
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/states-hit-pause-coronavirus-reopening-live-updates-200629235549222.html

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has ordered people arriving from an additional eight states to quarantine for 14 days.

The eight additional states are California, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada and Tennessee, all of which have growing caseloads, Cuomo said in a statement.

-------------------------------------

US Cases Double In June In at Least 10 States
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/states-hit-pause-coronavirus-reopening-live-updates-200629235549222.html

Coronavirus cases more than doubled in at least 10 US states, including Florida and Texas in the month of June, a Reuters analysis shows.

Arizona recorded the biggest jump in cases for the month at 294 percent, followed by South Carolina and Arkansas. Cases also more than doubled in Alabama, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Utah.

Nationally cases rose by at least 43 percent and deaths increased by 20 percent.

More US states step back from reopening as COVID-19 cases surge

---------------------------------

EU Agrees 'Safe' List of 14 Countries for Travel Resumption

European Union governments have agreed on an initial "safe list" of 14 countries from which they will allow non-essential travel from July, with the US among the most notable of absences.

The "safe" countries are Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay, the European Council said on Tuesday.

In addition, China would be included if it reciprocated by allowing in EU travellers.

-------------------------------

CDC Expert Warns U.S. Has "Way Too Much Virus" to Contain Outbreak
https://www.axios.com/cdc-coronavirus-spreading-too-fast-in-us-9820f635-7a9a-433a-8a88-267c5e5bbeb5.html

The novel coronavirus is spreading too widely and quickly to contain, CDC principal deputy director Anne Schuchat told The Journal of the American Medical Association Monday, warning she expects "this virus to continue to circulate."

https://twitter.com/JAMA_current/status/1277671006706917377

Why it matters: Per Schuchat, "This is really the beginning, and what we hope is that we can take it seriously and slow the transmission." Her comments are in contrast to those of senior members of the Trump administration — notably Vice President Mike Pence, who said on Friday "we have made truly remarkable progress."

- COVID-19 cases are surging across the U.S., prompting Texas and New Jersey to pause plans to reopen their economies in recent days.

What else she's saying: "We have way too much virus across the country for that right now, so it’s very discouraging," Schuchat said in the with the Journal's Howard Bauchner.

- She said there was "a lot of wishful thinking around the country" that the pandemic would be over by summer. "We are not even beginning to be over this. There are a lot of worrisome factors about the last week or so."

- "We're not in the situation of New Zealand or Singapore or Korea where a new case is rapidly identified and all the contacts are traced and people are isolated who are sick and people who are exposed are quarantined and they can keep things under control."

---------------------------------------



----------------------------------------

Survey Finds Confusion Among Public About Pandemic News
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-survey-pandemic-news.html

Three in 10 Americans say they trust President Donald Trump and his administration to get the facts straight all or most of the time when talking about COVID-19, the Pew Research Center said.

"I can't think of any precedent for that," said Dan Fagin, director of New York University's Science, Health and Environmental Reporting program, and a former reporter. "There's a reason why that number is so low. Honestly, what disturbs even more is that there is 30% of the public who think they can believe the president on this."

... "Trust is an intuitive sense of who we think is on our side, and that is why risk communication is really crucial in a time like this," Ropeik said. "That is why the federal government has blown this and many of the state governments haven't."

The Pew survey found dramatic differences in how the public assessed key sources of information on coronavirus, said Amy Mitchell, Pew's director of journalism research.

A little more than half of those surveyed (53%) trusted the accuracy of information they were getting from governors or state leaders, with 44% believing the news media. Trust numbers were higher for local media sources, Pew said.

Nearly 2 of 3 Americans said they had confidence in the information they were getting from the Centers for Disease Control and other health organizations.

"What is encouraging is that people do have great faith in public health experts," Fagin said. "That's why Anthony Fauci's role is so important and that it's a great blessing that he's been involved in all of this."

Ropeik said social media has muddied the waters with misinformation. That's illustrated by Pew's finding that 71% of Americans had heard the conspiracy theory that the virus outbreak had been intentionally planned, and that 36% said that is probably or definitely true.

Among people who cite the president and his administration as their primary source of information about the coronavirus, 56% of Pew's respondents said they believed that theory, which is unsupported by evidence.

The survey also found evidence of a growing partisan divide in beliefs. For example, a majority of Republicans (54%) said they believed most or all of information provided by Trump, while only 9% of Democrats do.

More Republicans increasingly believe the coronavirus is overblown, said Pew, which conducted an online survey between June 4-10 of 9,654 people in a panel of adults selected randomly.

----------------------------------------

‘Trump Political Base Hit Hardest By Coronavirus'
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-53224752

The economic impact of the coronavirus has taken a heavier toll on low-wage earners according to Tomas J Philipson, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC before his reported departure , he said: "There's a sort of unique impact of this shock in that its very regressive, hitting the low wage part of the economy. Low-wage workers take a bigger hit than higher wage".

... This has political implications for the upcoming November election as President Trump enjoys far higher support among non-college educated voters - often used as a proxy for low vs high wage earners - than among those who have college degrees.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 01:14:47 AM by vox_mundi »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7283 on: July 01, 2020, 07:22:29 AM »
<snip>
I don't know where you mean with "here" but in New Zealand the situation is much better because of having successfully eleminated the virus.

NZ is an island nation with the means to do extensive contact tracing. 

Iceland has also been quite successful.

Obviously, living on an island with restricted international and domestic travel will help stop the spread of this virus.

Most countries have/had closed their borders, in effect making them an island. There is not much difference in that regard.
Social distancing and society shutdown have happened in many countries.

The difference is testing testing testing and contact tracing of all found cases. And the use of masks.
This is the only reason why you can party again in New Zealand and everything is back to normal.


But, a strong business lobby will want to reopen for international tourism. That is where the country will have to give up their recently deserved freedoms and health security and national commerce. Because international tourists do not want to spend weeks in quarantine and the country has not enough hotels and other means to quarantine them. What will happen is, when international tourism opens again, the virus will come back.

This means you either:
  1) hold on to your beautiful virus-free safety and freedom
or
  2) reopen for international tourism

I would pick option number 1. You?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7284 on: July 01, 2020, 09:48:59 AM »
Largest percent increases since one week ago:

United States: +37.26% change
Armenia:       +28.97% change
Kuwait:        +26.67% change
Panama:        +16.52% change
Brazil:        +15% change
Oman:          +7.73% change
Bahrain:       +5.33% change
Peru:          +3.17% change
Sweden:        +1.33% change

“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7285 on: July 01, 2020, 10:20:03 AM »
Arizona Announces Coronavirus Hospital Triage Plan Amid Surging Cases
https://www.axios.com/arizona-coronavirus-triage-discriminatory-claim-fe11e5d8-2c40-48c1-9427-89dac2496da3.html

Disability advocates in Arizona are criticizing a decision by the state allowing hospitals to activate a Crisis Standards of Care Plan that enables statewide triage protocols for acute care facilities.

Why it matters: Gov. Doug Ducey (R) said at a briefing the policy would help combat surging coronavirus cases. [... Not opening prematurely would have helped more] But disability rights groups issued a statement Tuesday urging health officials to revise the plan because they said it "could result in discriminatory denial of life-saving healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic."

... Arizona is preparing to implement SCORECARDS to determine eligibility for receiving care in a COVID world with limited supplies.

The elderly & people with pre-existing conditions immediately fall into a lower category of priority due to life expectancy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/stevenspohn/status/1278096633406906369


https://t.co/7f67Z5O1u0?amp=1

What they're saying: The Arizona Center for Disability Law said it wrote to the health department earlier this year asking officials to modify the CSC guidelines "to incorporate explicit nondiscrimination requirements and provide for reasonable accommodations for persons with disabilities."

- However, these changes weren't incorporated into the guidelines and it received no response from health officials, the group said.

The other side: A petition from medical providers, signed by more than 1,100 people, asked state leaders to "utilize crisis care standards" because they say they are working under "a huge strain on an already stressed hospital system."

- The petition, which also calls for the stay-at-home order that expired in May to be reinstated, notes the Crisis Standards of Care Plan (CSC) is "something that most of us, when choosing our career, thought we would never be doing," noting it was usually only implemented in extreme situations in the U.S., such as terrorist attacks."

- Arizona hospitals asked the state health department last Friday to formally activate the CSC. An Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association spokesperson told 12 News, "Moving to crisis standards of care will allow consideration of regulatory waivers as well as additional liability protections."

The big picture: Gov. Ducey announced at Monday's press conference he was ordering bars, clubs, movie theaters, waterparks and gyms to close for 30 days in response to spiking cases.

- More than 79,000 people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in the state, with over 4,600 new cases on Tuesday, per the Arizona Department of Health Services. More than 1,600 people have died from the virus in Arizona

----------------------------------------



---------------------------------------

Arizona Hospitals Want More Power to Decide Who Gets Care as COVID-19 Overwhelms Facilities, Staff
https://www.12news.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/arizona-hospitals-want-more-power-to-decide-who-gets-care-as-covid-19-overwhelms-facilities-staff/75-852d5dd8-097a-441c-be19-da6419c95add

Arizona hospitals on Friday asked the state Department of Health Services to formally activate crisis standards of care, rarely used guidelines that would give health care providers more freedom to decide who should be treated for the coronavirus and how they should be treated.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6958725-Covid-19-Addendum-3.html

- Hospitals could allocate resources to patients with the best chance of survival or the longest projected lifespan.

- Decisions would be guided by a points scale and a color-coded triage chart to determine a patient’s priority for care.

...

- Health care companies could also seek liability protection to allow them to make those triage decisions.


https://mobile.twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1276746732395810818

The call for crisis standards by the State Disaster Medical Advisory Committee, which represents the state's major hospitals and other health care facilities, is the clearest sign to date that the out-of-control coronavirus infection is overwhelming the state’s health care resources.

A Tucson doctor described a desperate situation: “It is hard to admit that I feel vulnerable and scared when I think of the COVID-19 surge we are facing now. But I am admitting it because you need to know how close health care workers are to breaking.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/opinion/coronavirus-arizona-hospitals.html

Since Memorial Day, Arizona has seen its hospitalization rate grow faster than any state in the country. A recent headline in the Washington Post told the story: How Arizona “lost control of the epidemic.

Statewide, 86% of inpatient beds are in use and 88 percent of intensive care unit beds are occupied.

COVID-19 patients use one in every three inpatient beds and two in every five ICU beds.

----------------------------------------

Texas Reports Record Number of New Cases, Bans Elective Surgeries in More Counties
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Texas reported more than 6,900 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, a record daily increase that brings the state’s total to nearly 160,000 cases, according to the state’s department of health. There are 6,533 people currently in Texas hospitals with Covid-19, after another record increase, according to the state’s department of health.

Earlier in the day, Gov. Greg Abbott suspended elective surgeries in Cameron, Hidalgo, Nueces and Webb counties to ensure hospital bed availability for Covid-19 patients. There are now eight counties in Texas, including those housing the state’s largest cities — Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin — that have been ordered to postpone elective procedures.

-------------------------------

Cases in 14 US States More Than Double in June
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/coronavirus-cases-14-states-double-live-updates-200701003734077.html

Alarming data from the US shows that coronavirus cases in 14 states more than doubled in June, with Arizona reporting a 294-percent increase.

Arizona also has the highest rate of people testing positive for the virus - at 24 percent during the past week. The WHO considers positive testing rates of above 5 percent a concern.

US case increases in June:

Arizona - 294 percent
South Carolina - 200 percent
Arkansas - 179 percent

---------------------------------------

CDC Expert Warns U.S. Has "Way Too Much Virus" to Contain Outbreak
https://www.axios.com/cdc-coronavirus-spreading-too-fast-in-us-9820f635-7a9a-433a-8a88-267c5e5bbeb5.html



-----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7286 on: July 01, 2020, 11:23:29 AM »
What is wrong with people?

People with heightened conspiracy mentality appear to have adopted behaviors to prevent the spread of COVID-19 — at least until those behaviors were officially endorsed by the government...

Conspiracy mentality linked to non-compliance with official — but not unofficial — coronavirus prevention measures

Link >> https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/conspiracy-mentality-linked-to-non-compliance-with-official-but-not-unofficial-coronavirus-prevention-measures-57186
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7287 on: July 01, 2020, 12:11:41 PM »
What is wrong with people?

People with heightened conspiracy mentality appear to have adopted behaviors to prevent the spread of COVID-19 — at least until those behaviors were officially endorsed by the government...

Conspiracy mentality linked to non-compliance with official — but not unofficial — coronavirus prevention measures

Link >> https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/conspiracy-mentality-linked-to-non-compliance-with-official-but-not-unofficial-coronavirus-prevention-measures-57186

Yes. In Sweden, the conspiracy crowd (chemtrail/Gates/Monsanto etc) is wearing masks. The people who believe that Tegnell is helping the pension funds to finish off the old people etc.

And foreigners. There have been complaints about harassment, which is of course very unfortunate:
https://www.thelocal.se/20200630/coughs-and-racial-slurs-swedens-foreign-residents-reveal-abuse-for-wearing-face-masks

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7288 on: July 01, 2020, 01:49:16 PM »
This means you either:
  1) hold on to your beautiful virus-free safety and freedom
or
  2) reopen for international tourism

I would pick option number 1. You?

1. Rich people will be fleeing away from C19 infested areas and they will bring C19 with them. They are not tourists. They are rich refugees. If they want to go New Zealand or any other C19 free place that's fine by me, but they must quarantine upon arrival.

Of course, I also live on an island with the virus under relative control and under constant attack from the airport.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7289 on: July 01, 2020, 09:07:20 PM »
ASIF can I have your thoughts on this?

Ceiling fans.

When viral particles are expelled out of the mouth and nose they carry a direction and speed. When expelled out of the nose, the direction is mostly down, towards the floor and relative safety. However, when the particles are expelled out of the mouth, the direction is almost parallel to the ground, carrying the particles they remain in the air they can be breathed. In the case of speech the direction of the particle points towards the target audience.

I do not know enough about ceiling fans, but it seems to me that they might be enough to impart downward momentum to all particles in the room, minimizing the time viral particles remain in the air.

Of course, this means that surfaces are more contaminated, but maybe the trade-off is worth it.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7290 on: July 01, 2020, 09:55:28 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7291 on: July 02, 2020, 01:05:06 AM »
Excellent. Thanks for you thoughts Vox_Mundi

So just below the fan, we get the desired effect. Downforce is applied to the air. This is very significant for airborne transmission.

Remember, the virus does not travel in a vacuum, the virus travels in a microdroplet.  If the microdroplet hits the ground, it will very likely stay there, unless picked up by someone's hands or feet.

However, turbulence will make it so that not all viral particles hit the ground. In the idealized version, after the current hits the minimum height it travels sideways, along the floor, below the reach of noses and mouths. That's not great, but it is not horrible either.

If there is no walls the current will keep going until it loses momentum and lands.

If there is a wall then there is a second potential contact with the surface, leaving some virus behind and the rest heads up.

If there is a window the current is broken and the winds flow according to the flow of the window, ideally out.

If no window the air keeps going up until it hits the ceiling. A third contact possibility. More virus is left behind.

 Then it folds in along the ceiling, back to the center where it is propelled down again. This part is potentially dangerous as we now have all the particles that made up the stream on top.

And then there is the middle of the room. There the viral count will be the noise leaving the currents at any stage. However, if any viral particle drifts under the fan, it will be pushed down.

However, without any air movement then the air at full viral dose will just float around the room without ever being filtered by contact with walls.

Surely things get a heck of a lot more complicated when objects and obstacles ar added to the room, but it shouldn't matter. The people under the fan should be well protected.
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JMP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7292 on: July 02, 2020, 02:19:38 AM »
Excellent. Thanks for you thoughts Vox_MundiThe people under the fan should be well protected.

If the floor was an open grid above a plenum, with negative pressure below, and filtered air supplied constantly from above...? Maybe.
 

(reminds me of the design of the station in the movie Aliens plenty of ductwork for large critters to crawl through).   ;)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7293 on: July 02, 2020, 02:47:16 AM »
Review Finds Major Weaknesses in Evidence Base for COVID-19 Antibody Tests
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-major-weaknesses-evidence-base-covid-.html

Major weaknesses exist in the evidence base for COVID-19 antibody tests, finds a review of the latest research published by The British Medical Journal today.

The evidence is particularly weak for point-of-care tests (performed directly with a patient, outside of a laboratory) and does not support their continued use, say the researchers.

... An international team of researcher searched medical databases and preprint servers from 1 January to 30 April 2020 for studies measuring sensitivity and/or specificity of a COVID-19 antibody test compared with a control test.

Sensitivity measures the percentage of people who are correctly identified as having a disease, while specificity measures the percentage of people who are correctly identified as not having a disease.

Of 40 eligible studies, most (70%) were from China and the rest were from the UK, US, Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Japan and Germany.

Half of the studies were not peer reviewed and most were found to have a high or unclear risk of bias (problems in study design that can influence results). Only four studies included outpatients and only two evaluated tests at the point of care.

When sensitivity results for each study were pooled together, they ranged from 66% to 97.8% depending on the type of test method used, meaning that between 2.2% and 34% of patients with COVID-19 would be missed.

Pooled specificities ranged from 96.6% to 99.7%, depending on the test method used, meaning that between 3.4% and 0.3% of patients would be wrongly identified as having COVID-19.

Pooled sensitivities were consistently lower for the lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) test compared with other test methods. The LFIA test is the potential point-of-care method that is being considered for 'immunity passports.'

Based on these results, the authors explain that, if an LFIA test is applied to a population with a COVID-19 prevalence of 10%, for every 1000 people tested (i.e. 100 out of 1000), 31 who never had COVID-19 will be incorrectly told they are immune, and 34 people who had COVID-19 will be incorrectly told that they were never infected.

Pooled sensitivities were also lower with commercial test kits (65%) compared with non-commercial kits (88.2%) and in the first and second week after symptom onset compared with after the second week.

... "These observations indicate important weaknesses in the evidence on COVID-19 serological tests, particularly those being marketed as point-of-care tests," they write.

Diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for COVID-19: systematic review and meta-analysis, BMJ (2020)
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2516
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7294 on: July 02, 2020, 02:48:20 AM »
^ Arch, it gets a little more complicated ... either of two types of flow may occur depending on the velocity and viscosity of the atmosphere: laminar flow or turbulent flow.

Also, fans can run forward or reverse (there's a switch on the motor hub. Airflow direction changes 180 degrees.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7295 on: July 02, 2020, 10:08:17 AM »
The perfect is the enemy of the good. This should be the overriding principle when talking about solutions to a pandemic. Perfection is a very dangerous trap for people that make a living out of precise and high-efficiency solutions, as are often needed in life. Those solutions are the enemy in a pandemic because they are often not implementable in time or are too expensive to be implemented widely enough.

With that principle in mind, ceiling fans are widely available, cheap and may provide a small level of protection in close spaces, like dining rooms.

If the floor was an open grid above a plenum, with negative pressure below, and filtered air supplied constantly from above...? Maybe.

The way you describe it most certainly works and is already in use in many facilities.
What you describe is the known effective way to minimize turbulent flow and maximize the downwards laminar flow. But based on the principle of "the perfect is the enemy of the good", that is not a good option for a pandemic. Filters, negative pressures and false floors, are real solutions that simply can't be deployed in time, let alone the expense.

Ceiling fans are to the rooms you describe (they surely have a name) what homemade masks are to N95 respirators.

The since there are no filters, no false floor, no negative pressure below, the only thing we have is the downward force exerted by the ceiling fan.

Then the protection we get depends on the force exerted by the ceiling fan. If the fan does not exert enough downforce to move exhaled air, then the fan is not useful.

If the fan produces enough force that particles get pushed down faster, then people inside the flow can have a safer conversation with each other. This excludes room considerations like walls or windows.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7296 on: July 02, 2020, 10:21:22 AM »
IMHO in a room with masked people, I would personally prefer no forced mixing of the air. IMHO a ceiling fan will increase risk rather than decrease it.
I would also suggest if this is to be developed further it should go into a different thread.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7297 on: July 02, 2020, 10:27:08 AM »
Totally shooting out of the hip here, but could an increase of air circulation (in a closed room) force the particles to settle on surfaces earlier? If a particle just stays in the air it can be there for hours floating. But when you have circulation, you increase the likelihood of it to bump against something, no?

If true, you might just shift the infection risk to smear infection.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7298 on: July 02, 2020, 10:43:08 AM »
Totally shooting out of the hip here, but could an increase of air circulation (in a closed room) force the particles to settle on surfaces earlier?

That is precisely my point.

Quote
If true, you might just shift the infection risk to smear infection.

Absolutely. One should expect an increase in particle deposition below the fan. If there is just a floor, then the problem is almost trivial. A table and chairs present more trouble. But then again, with a strong enough flow, the particles should concentrate fairly close to the source.

I just throw it out there to check with ASIF if there was anything obvious that I was missing. Edit: Link below is a time-stamped video of particles in still and moving air posted by Vox on the Masks thread. They are sideways but you can extrapolate the up and down. We can continue there.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.msg271432.html#msg271432
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 11:44:49 AM by Archimid »
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7299 on: July 02, 2020, 10:57:42 AM »
To get back on topic:

Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

Quote
The changes in mortality that occurred during the pandemic varied by state and region. In New York City, all-cause mortality rose 7-fold above baseline at the peak of the pandemic, for a total of 25 100 (95%prediction interval, 24 800-25 400) excess deaths, of which 26% were unattributed to COVID-19 (Table and Figure 2). In contrast, in the rest of New York State, the increase was more moderate, rising 2-fold above baseline and resulting in 12 300 (95% prediction interval, 11 900-12 700) excess deaths.

The baseline model was adjusted for seasonality, year-to-year baseline variation, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays.


The baseline was apparently not adjusted for a shutdown. The cessation of most activity should've led to a significant decrease in mortality. They are doing:

Actual - Baseline = Excess

The real excess death is given by:

Actual - (Baseline - adjustment for shutdown) = Excess
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