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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 285364 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7350 on: July 05, 2020, 07:01:14 PM »
needs back up

I said before it's anecdotal, but here are some hints:

Quote
The authors said the findings suggest that it could be risky to assume that recovered patients are immune to reinfection, which may have implications for how long to maintain physical distancing restrictions.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-study-antibodies-covid-19-patients-fade-quickly

Quote
Some suggest that patients retesting as positive after previously testing negative were somehow reinfected with the virus. This would undermine hopes that people catching COVID-19 would produce antibodies that would prevent them from getting sick again from the virus
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-patients-ins/recovered-almost-chinas-early-patients-unable-to-shed-coronavirus-idUSKCN2240HI

In the podcast i'm listening to such a (apparently) patient wrote in.
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-635/

It was reported from China in the early days.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/21/COVID-19-reinfection-cases-on-the-rise-in-China/4291582219521/

Once again: I'm not claiming it's a thing! I'm saying it could be a thing. Subjunctively! Could all be based on wrong testing and whatnot. We can't rule it out though (which was also pointed out several times by now).
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7351 on: July 05, 2020, 07:06:18 PM »
Immunity is far from simple.

I do not know of cases of recovery from a virus leading to worse disease from the identical virus on reinfection. However, failure to develop lasting immunity is relatively common especially among RNA viruses. So too is severe and even more severe follow on or later disease from other versions of the virus, or other pathogens.

Dengue is classic for this. Follow on infection by a different version of dengue can be fatal.

RSV is classic for failure to develop resistance. And for triggering asthma, which then increases susceptibility to airborne pathogens and severe disease.

Whooping Cough appears to be a particular problem for vaccines. Recent outbreaks have apparently been predominantly or solely in those vaccinated against it.

Sam

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7352 on: July 05, 2020, 07:21:17 PM »
Yes it is Sam and dengue is the classic example. Don´t know much about the others but what applies to dengue is possibly not the same as RSV or WC.

And basically the questions of how much immunity do we actually get and related questions are important. And here it is especially important how much it relates to covid.

It was basically the tone of the claim. If you read it back it was stated as fact. This can be done with some things (our politicians are stupid) but not with things that important and interesting. 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Phoenix

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7353 on: July 05, 2020, 07:44:08 PM »
My 92 y/o mother was diagnosed with Covid 10 days ago. She is basically asymptomatic and was tested as a result of someone else at the facility getting sick.

Her personal aide at her assisted living facility in South Florida quit which represents a significant social disruption and reduction in quality of life. She isn't allowed to have outside visitors at this point.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7354 on: July 05, 2020, 08:02:52 PM »
... She is basically asymptomatic ...

Fingers crossed it stays like that.

Best wishes, Phoenix.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7355 on: July 05, 2020, 08:09:51 PM »
It was mainly the tone blumy.

Plus dengue has a really long history and it is not an obvious candidate to generalize to covid (it needs insect stages etc).

You did not mention the podcast in the original post or link it when you mention it. We are not mind readers.

Strong claims need strong evidence like links. And if they are podcasts better include a time stamp. Lets not waste more pixels on this. So back to covid data or news.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7356 on: July 05, 2020, 08:54:18 PM »
It was mainly the tone blumy.

Plus dengue has a really long history and it is not an obvious candidate to generalize to covid (it needs insect stages etc).

You did not mention the podcast in the original post or link it when you mention it. We are not mind readers.

Strong claims need strong evidence like links. And if they are podcasts better include a time stamp. Lets not waste more pixels on this. So back to covid data or news.
Dengue was the nightmare comparison when this was beginning but so far it has not shown signs (from what I have read) of ADE. Otherwise, NYC would probably be dying en masse by now...

ADE was my major fear with this from February onwards but that has now abated. I think Sam is fear-mongering. The President and VP are probably on either Hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic or another prophylactic that has not yet been released publicly (could be Descovy or Truvada).

Phoenix

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7357 on: July 05, 2020, 09:37:07 PM »
... She is basically asymptomatic ...

Fingers crossed it stays like that.

Best wishes, Phoenix.

Thanks. She's 92...she's had a good run. It's all gravy at this point.

I think the main reason to share is so that people are aware of the collateral consequences of states like Florida being so eager to reopen. The human impact is that some people are spending more time stuck in relative isolation.

Alexander555

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7359 on: July 05, 2020, 11:27:16 PM »
Coronavirus On Track to Overwhelm Houston Hospitals In Two Weeks, Mayor Says
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/05/coronavirus-on-track-to-overwhelm-houston-hospitals-in-two-weeks-mayor-says.html

Hospitals in Houston, Texas are on track to be overwhelmed in approximately two weeks as coronavirus cases mount, Mayor Sylvester Turner said on Sunday.

"The number of people who are getting sick and going to the hospitals has exponentially increased. The number of people in our ICU beds has exponentially increased," Turner said on CBS's "Face The Nation."

In Houston, the percentage of tests for the virus coming back positive has risen to nearly 25%. Turner said that people of color were being disproportionately impacted, particularly Hispanic residents.

Turner, a Democrat, said that the main problem facing Houston hospitals is staffing, not a shortage of beds.

"We can always provide additional beds, but we need the people, the nurses and everybody else, the medical professionals, to staff those beds. That's the critical point right now," Turner said.

Texas hit a record number of new coronavirus cases on Saturday, reporting 8,258 people infected over 24 hours. Nearly 200,000 in the state have tested positive, according to data provided state health officials, including more than 35,000 in Harris County, which contains Houston. At least 2,608 people in the state have died of the disease.

----------------------------

Hidalgo County and Starr County, which are located in the Rio Grande Valley, are home to more than 900,000 people. Hospitals in the region put out statements that they have reached or are at critical capacity levels.

"Valley Baptist Health System is urging local residents to take all necessary precautions against COVID-19 as our hospitals are at a critical capacity level, like every other hospital across our region," the organization said in a statement Friday. "Our entire team is working around the clock to manage this crisis situation."

The health system CEO Manny Vela said their hospitals are now at "102% and 101% occupancy," according to ABC News Texas affiliate KRGV.

Dr. Jose Vazquez, of the Starr County health authority, said Friday that every hospital in the Valley is full and that patients are being transported to other parts of Texas.

"There are no beds in the Valley, Vazquez said. "We are becoming New York,"
Vazquez said, KRGV reported.

Texas has more than 82,000 active COVID-19 cases, and Friday's statewide test positivity rate was 13.32%. More than 7,300 coronavirus patients are hospitalized across the state. That number was at 6,900 on Thursday

----------------------------

On Sunday, Trump spent what was by one count the 366th day of his presidency at one of his own private properties, and the 274th playing golf.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1279053569547698176



----------------------------

... "We're right back where we were at the peak of the epidemic during the New York outbreak," Gottlieb said on "Face the Nation." "The difference now is that we really had one epicenter of spread when New York was going through its hardship. Now we really have four major epicenters of spread: Los Angeles, cities in Texas, cities in Florida and Arizona. And Florida looks to be in the worst shape, and Georgia is heating up as well, and that's concerning."

Gottlieb warned that in the next two weeks, the death toll from the coronavirus — which currently stands at more than 129,000, according to Johns Hopkins University — is going to increase.

... "We face a hard fall," Gottlieb said. "It's not clear that it's going to get better. We're going to have epidemics that come and go across the nation in different cities. They'll light up at different times. But we're not going to really be able to crush this virus at this point because there's just so much infection around. We really don't seem to have the political will to do it."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7360 on: July 06, 2020, 08:00:09 AM »
The question of immunity is of utmost importance for many reasons (economic/social/epidemiological)

I understand the point that respiratory RNA viruses often confer only short term immunity but that in itself is no proof about COVID immunity although definitely worrisome. As I previously said above, all I read so far is that you still have immunity after 6 months

If anyone has solid research on this subject I would be delighted to read it.

As COVID is most closely related to the original SARS, that might be the best paralell:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

"Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure."

Also:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354216304016

"Eighty-nine percent of the recovered patients have detectable IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV at 24 months post-infection...IgG is only detectable in 2 of 23 recovered donors at 6 years after illness onset " BUT:
"Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV-recovered donors have had long-lasting memory T-cell immunity."

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7361 on: July 06, 2020, 09:11:34 AM »
Two headlines, just over a month apart

“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

kiwichick16

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7362 on: July 06, 2020, 12:03:27 PM »
@  blumenkraft     ….we got here because lots of people didn't take this seriously …...and it appears many still aren't

Guess we just got lucky having a woman in charge in New Zealand  ….not to say that other countries haven't handled it well also

good luck everyone

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7363 on: July 06, 2020, 12:05:26 PM »
As posted upthread, I'll dig it up if anyone wants it, the duration of typical coronavirus immunity is highly dependant on the initial severity of the disease. Patients that got severe disease had longer and stronger immunity than those with mild symptoms or asymptomatic. Those that were reinfected suffer mild diseases the second time around.

If the same applies for this novel coronavirus and Sars, then maybe we could expect Sars average immunity to be longer-lasting and stronger, because Sars is more severe than Sars2. Big maybe.

I think Sars 2 immunity will work as described. Those with severe disease will have strong immunity and those with mild disease will have weak immunity. Reinfection should produce milder disease the second time around, but there is a chance that lung damage accumulates and the disease becomes more deadly.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7364 on: July 06, 2020, 12:59:00 PM »
The question of immunity is of utmost importance for many reasons (economic/social/epidemiological)

I understand the point that respiratory RNA viruses often confer only short term immunity but that in itself is no proof about COVID immunity although definitely worrisome. As I previously said above, all I read so far is that you still have immunity after 6 months

If anyone has solid research on this subject I would be delighted to read it.

As COVID is most closely related to the original SARS, that might be the best paralell:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

"Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure."

Also:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354216304016

"Eighty-nine percent of the recovered patients have detectable IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV at 24 months post-infection...IgG is only detectable in 2 of 23 recovered donors at 6 years after illness onset " BUT:
"Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV-recovered donors have had long-lasting memory T-cell immunity."

Good information here, thanks.  The gradual fall in antibody levels does not mean there is a fall in immunity.  The antibody part of immune function isn't static, it's highly dynamic. That is, there are memory lymphocytes that go quiescent when they're not being stimulated by the presence of foreign antigens.  But they "wake up" when again stimulated, years later.  They can ramp up production of effective antibodies very quickly.

I think this idea of risk of reinfection is overblown.  Very, very few viral infections can re-infect a person whose immune system has previously cleared the infection.  In all examples (other than the special case of dengue fever) subsequent infections are much milder in severity. 

We don't know for sure that this pattern will hold for Covid, since it's only existed in recognized form for 6 months.  But the closest examples are SARS and MERS, and reinfections  have not been observed (though there have been limited opportunities for anyone to be re-challenged by these pathogens).

Certainly, humanity has had centuries of experience with viral infections in a time where no vaccines or medications were available.  Reinfections after clearance have not been an issue, with dozens of examples of this robustness of immune function.

The issue of people testing positive after having been infected and then testing negative is challenging.  It seems much more likely that these are actually cases of failure of immune function to actually clear the infection.  I think proving this would require RNA sequencing of the supposed reinfection, to see if the genotype is identical to the first.  I'm unaware of this kind of study having  been done as yet.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7365 on: July 06, 2020, 01:34:12 PM »
Using Epo to Treat COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-epo-covid-.html

Erythropoietin (Epo) is actually a medication for anemia. According to researchers at the Max Planck Institute of Experimental Medicine in Göttingen, the doping agent Epo could also be effective against COVID-19. The growth factor could mitigate severe disease progression and protect patients from long-term neurological effects when the SARS-CoV-2 virus attacks the brain. Initial case studies indicate a positive effect of Epo.

At the end of March, a patient with severe COVID-19 symptoms was admitted to an Iranian hospital. Because the patient also had poor blood values, the doctors prescribed the haematopoietic growth factor Epo. Seven days after the start of treatment, the patient was able to leave the hospital.

Another indication of the protective role of Epo in the case of COVID-19 comes from South America, where severe illness is rarer in higher-lying regions than in the lowlands. This may be because people living at higher altitudes form more Epo and are better adapted to oxygen deficiency because they have more red blood cells.

... "we have observed that dialysis patients withstand COVID-19 remarkably well—and it is precisely these patients who regularly receive erythropoietin,"

Animal experiments suggest that Epo acts on areas of the brain stem and spinal cord that control breathing. As a result, breathing improves when there is an oxygen deficiency. Epo also has an anti-inflammatory effect on immune cells and could thus attenuate the frequently exaggerated immune response in COVID-19 patients. It could also protect against neurological symptoms and long-term effects of the disease such as headaches, dizziness, loss of smell and taste, and seizures.

The protective effects of Epo have been shown in animals as well as in numerous studies in humans with various brain disorders. Unfortunately, pharmaceutical companies have only limited interest in financing further studies on approved active ingredients such as erythropoietin for which patent protection has expired.

Hannelore Ehrenreich et al. Erythropoietin as candidate for supportive treatment of severe COVID-19, Molecular Medicine (2020)
https://molmed.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s10020-020-00186-y

-------------------------------------


https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-coronavirus.html

-------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7366 on: July 06, 2020, 02:05:50 PM »
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
View ORCID ProfileStephen M. Kissler1,*, View ORCID ProfileChristine Tedijanto2,*, View ORCID ProfileEdward Goldstein2, View ORCID ProfileYonatan H. Grad1,†,‡, View ORCID ProfileMarc Lipsitch2,†,‡

Science  22 May 2020:
Vol. 368, Issue 6493, pp. 860-868
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/860.full

The researchers studied related virii and their immunity duration to project likely scenarios. This did not nail down how long the immunity for SARS-COV-2 may last, or how ongoing mutation will affect this.

The related viruses showed a 40-45 week immunity period. That led to annual resurgence in the model. 2 year immunity led to biennial resurgence. Both cases drove the need for ongoing long term social distancing.

In other words, unless we extirpate this virus, or develop vaccines that generate longer more durable immunity, or vaccinate at least annually, we will remain in the conditions we are in now for the very long term.

———

Study says coronavirus immunity might only last 6 months

https://bgr.com/2020/05/26/coronavirus-immunity-duration-vaccine-covid-19-treatment/

———

Some of the many other reprints related to this topic can be found here:
https://www.biorxiv.org/search/614

In going through a dozen recent studies what is clear is that we as yet do not have answers to the basic question about how long immunity lasts, how infective people are on reaquiring the virus soon after recovery and other critical factors.

It is likely the immunity is of short duration - circa 2 years or less. It may be much less. Add to this the 3-9 fold increase in infectivity of the hugely dominant D614G variant.

There is hope that one or more of the vaccines under development will provide more durable immunity than acquiring the virus itself. Though that is wholly unproven so far. With widespread global transmission, the liklihood of additional variants forming that dramatically impact immunity, transmission rates, and disease severity is great.

With continuing spread, mutation, and global transmission, it is clear that the economic destruction and social restrictions required to prevent mass disease and death will be with us for a long time.

This isn’t going away any time soon. Wishful thinking will not be helpful. Solving this will require an enormous concerted global effort.

Also, whatever we learn about the immune dynamics will likely be severely tempered by the on-going rapid evolution of the virus. It is unlikely that a single vaccine will end this.

Sam

« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 02:14:39 PM by Sam »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7367 on: July 06, 2020, 02:20:37 PM »
Trump's former Homeland Security adviser Tom Bossert tweeted the ominous message Sunday:

https://mobile.twitter.com/TomBossert/status/1279787043187576833
https://mobile.twitter.com/TomBossert/status/1279790925817020420

"We are in trouble.... Once a state is over 1% prevalence, it becomes much harder to extinguish the flare up," Bossert tweeted. "It will take a huge effort to put out these outbreak fires. More than masks alone. We could top 500k US deaths this year if this trend continues."

... "TX: Cases as of 7/4 (191.8K); cases as of 6/20 (107.7K). Increase of 84K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 416K. Population of TX = 29M, so roughly 1.4% of population is currently infectious."

"AZ: Cases as of 7/4 (94.6K); cases as of 6/20 (49.8K). Increase of 44.8K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 220K. Population of AZ = 7.3M, so roughly 3% of population is currently infectious."

"CA: Cases as of 7/4 (254.7K); cases as of 6/20 (169.3K). Increase of 85.4K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 427K. Population of CA = 40M, so roughly 1% of population is currently infectious."

"GA: Cases as of 7/4 (93.3K); cases as of 6/20 (63.8K). Increase of 30K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 150K. Population of GA = 10.6M, so roughly 1.4% of population is currently infectious."

... "What are the hundreds of thousands of infectious people in these states doing right now? Isolating? Are their family members quarantining themselves? How many days does it take for them to notify people with whom they have been in close contact? Are they even notifying others?"

https://www.axios.com/tom-bossert-trump-face-masks-coronavirus-4ecfb446-06f0-4cca-af84-b0ff9d7a39d4.html

In direct contradiction to Trump's "totally harmless" assertion, the US case fatality rate from coronavirus stood at 4.6% this weekend, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7368 on: July 06, 2020, 03:48:41 PM »
Researchers: COVID-19 Spreads Ten Meters or More by Breathing
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-ten-meters.html

A plea issued by 239 scientists from around the world to recognize and mitigate airborne transmission of COVID-19 addressed to international health authorities is to be published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

... "Studies by the signatories and other scientists have demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that viruses are exhaled in microdroplets small enough to remain aloft in the air and pose a risk of exposure beyond 1 to 2m by an infected person,"

"At typical indoor air velocities, a 5-micron droplet will travel tens of meters, much greater than the scale of a typical room while settling from a height of 1.5m above the floor."

... "We are concerned that people may think they are fully protected by following the current recommendations, but in fact, additional airborne precautions are needed to further reduce the spread of the virus."

Morawska, et.al. "It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19", Clinical Infectious Diseases (2020)
https://academic.oup.com/cid/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7369 on: July 06, 2020, 08:28:20 PM »
Very good visualizations:

An analysis of three Covid-19 outbreaks: how they happened and how they can be avoided

Link >> https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-17/an-analysis-of-three-covid-19-outbreaks-how-they-happened-and-how-they-can-be-avoided.html
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7370 on: July 06, 2020, 08:30:06 PM »
Trump's former Homeland Security adviser Tom Bossert tweeted the ominous message Sunday:

https://mobile.twitter.com/TomBossert/status/1279787043187576833
https://mobile.twitter.com/TomBossert/status/1279790925817020420

"We are in trouble.... Once a state is over 1% prevalence, it becomes much harder to extinguish the flare up," Bossert tweeted. "It will take a huge effort to put out these outbreak fires. More than masks alone. We could top 500k US deaths this year if this trend continues."

... "TX: Cases as of 7/4 (191.8K); cases as of 6/20 (107.7K). Increase of 84K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 416K. Population of TX = 29M, so roughly 1.4% of population is currently infectious."

"AZ: Cases as of 7/4 (94.6K); cases as of 6/20 (49.8K). Increase of 44.8K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 220K. Population of AZ = 7.3M, so roughly 3% of population is currently infectious."

"CA: Cases as of 7/4 (254.7K); cases as of 6/20 (169.3K). Increase of 85.4K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 427K. Population of CA = 40M, so roughly 1% of population is currently infectious."

"GA: Cases as of 7/4 (93.3K); cases as of 6/20 (63.8K). Increase of 30K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 150K. Population of GA = 10.6M, so roughly 1.4% of population is currently infectious."

... "What are the hundreds of thousands of infectious people in these states doing right now? Isolating? Are their family members quarantining themselves? How many days does it take for them to notify people with whom they have been in close contact? Are they even notifying others?"

https://www.axios.com/tom-bossert-trump-face-masks-coronavirus-4ecfb446-06f0-4cca-af84-b0ff9d7a39d4.html

In direct contradiction to Trump's "totally harmless" assertion, the US case fatality rate from coronavirus stood at 4.6% this weekend, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
These numbers in your post are just completely wrong. There is no way TX is at 1.4% infectious. The estimated peak infectious population in NYC in March was 5%. TX as a whole has like 2.5K deaths which means they are at 1% or 2% infected total pop MAX.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7371 on: July 06, 2020, 08:35:48 PM »

Morawska, et.al. "It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19", Clinical Infectious Diseases (2020)
https://academic.oup.com/cid/



How is this news? 

We've known this virus was spread in the droplet form since January when it first was released in Wuhan.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7372 on: July 06, 2020, 10:54:34 PM »

Morawska, et.al. "It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19", Clinical Infectious Diseases (2020)
https://academic.oup.com/cid/



How is this news? 

We've known this virus was spread in the droplet form since January when it first was released in Wuhan.

Not for WHO.
For WHO the virus spreads as mandated by the CCP.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 10:59:41 PM by gandul »

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7373 on: July 06, 2020, 10:58:09 PM »
Two headlines, just over a month apart


That’s a good catch. Hypocrites.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7374 on: July 07, 2020, 03:20:35 AM »
The Covid-19 Death Rate Has Dropped by 2/3rds
https://covid.us.org/2020/07/05/the-covid-19-death-rate-is-two-thirds-lower/
Quote
The reason for the drop is probably because Covid-19 is seasonal. See this article and the studies it cites. Vitamin D has a large influence on whether people contract Covid-19, and on how serious the disease may be, according to 14 vitamin D studies so far: Listed Here.

And that is bad news because, if the drop in the death rate is mostly due to higher vitamin D levels in summer, the death rate will rise sharply as winter approaches. Vitamin D is made when UV light from the sun strikes the skin. But in the winter, people are indoors more and the sun is also lower in the sky. This results in a cycling of vitamin D levels, lower in winter and higher in summer. We are seeing the benefits of that now, but the detriments will begin in October, and increase again in November, and again in December. That is the pattern for vitamin D levels and for seasonal illnesses.
He's a Catholic theologian, not a doctor, but could he be right here?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7375 on: July 07, 2020, 07:05:11 AM »
He could be right, he could be wrong, but his stats are meaningless. The true death rate is actual Covid deaths divided by actual Covid infections, not the official numbers, which in the USA are both quite wrong in various ways. Testing was very poor initially, and is still poor now but less so. New York City probably had 10 times of actual cases compared to the official cases. Deaths are sometimes counted and sometimes aren't, as can be seen by excess mortality figures very different from official numbers. So taking official cases, dividing by official deaths, getting a 67% reduction and ascribing it to Vitamin D is IMHO a nonsense analysis. Deaths are still happening two months after infection, so using a two-week delay also skews the result, as the "second wave" explosion is quite recent.
Actual death rate was 1% or slightly less, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a bit lower now thanks to better treatment protocols, but not by very much. Probably still higher than 0.5%. Is it Vit D related? I have no clue, maybe, but certainly not as strongly as a 67% reduction in death rate.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7376 on: July 07, 2020, 07:41:40 AM »
Think a 'mild' case of Covid-19 doesn’t sound so bad? Think again

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who
  by Adrienne Matei

Otherwise healthy people who thought they had recovered from coronavirus are reporting persistent and strange symptoms - including strokes

  (bolding by me)

Conventional wisdom suggests that when a sickness is mild, it’s not too much to worry about. But if you’re taking comfort in World Health Organization reports that over 80% of global Covid-19 cases are mild or asymptomatic, think again. As virologists race to understand the biomechanics of Sars-CoV-2, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: even “mild” cases can be more complicated, dangerous and harder to shake than many first thought.

Throughout the pandemic, a notion has persevered that people who have “mild” cases of Covid-19 and do not require an ICU stay or the use of a ventilator are spared from serious health repercussions. Just last week, Mike Pence, the US vice-president, claimed it’s “a good thing” that nearly half of the new Covid-19 cases surging in 16 states are young Americans, who are at less risk of becoming severely ill than their older counterparts. This kind of rhetoric would lead you to believe that the ordeal of “mildly infected” patients ends within two weeks of becoming ill, at which point they recover and everything goes back to normal.

While that may be the case for some people who get Covid-19, emerging medical research as well as anecdotal evidence from recovery support groups suggest that many survivors of “mild” Covid-19 are not so lucky. They experience lasting side-effects, and doctors are still trying to understand the ramifications.

Some of these side effects can be fatal. According to Dr Christopher Kellner, a professor of neurosurgery at Mount Sinai hospital in New York, “mild” cases of Covid-19 in which the patient was not hospitalized for the virus have been linked to blood clotting and severe strokes in people as young as 30. In May, Kellner told Healthline that Mount Sinai had implemented a plan to give anticoagulant drugs to people with Covid-19 to prevent the strokes they were seeing in “younger patients with no or mild symptoms”.

Doctors now know that Covid-19 not only affects the lungs and blood, but kidneys, liver and brain – the last potentially resulting in chronic fatigue and depression, among other symptoms. Although the virus is not yet old enough for long-term effects on those organs to be well understood, they may manifest regardless of whether a patient ever required hospitalization, hindering their recovery process.

Another troubling phenomenon now coming into focus is that of “long-haul” Covid-19 sufferers – people whose experience of the illness has lasted months. For a Dutch report published earlier this month (an excerpt is translated here) researchers surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients with an average age of 53, who reported a number of enduring symptoms, including intense fatigue (88%) persistent shortness of breath (75%) and chest pressure (45%). Ninety-one per cent of the patients weren’t hospitalized, suggesting they suffered these side-effects despite their cases of Covid-19 qualifying as “mild”. While 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves generally healthy before having Covid-19, only 6% still did so one month or more after getting the virus.

After being diagnosed with Covid-19, 26-year-old Fiona Lowenstein experienced a long, difficult and nonlinear recovery first-hand. Lowenstein became sick on 17 March, and was briefly hospitalized for fever, cough and shortness of breath. Doctors advised she return to the hospital if those symptoms worsened – but something else happened instead. “I experienced this whole slew of new symptoms: sinus pain, sore throat, really severe gastrointestinal issues,” she told me. “I was having diarrhea every time I ate. I lost a lot of weight, which made me weak, a lot of fatigue, headaches, loss of sense of smell …”

By the time she felt mostly better, it was mid-May, although some of her symptoms still routinely re-emerge, she says.

“It’s almost like a blow to your ego to be in your 20s and healthy and active, and get hit with this thing and think you’re going to get better and you’re going to be OK. And then have it really not pan out that way,” says Lowenstein.

Unable to find information about what she was experiencing, and wondering if more people were going through a similarly prolonged recovery, Lowenstein created The Body Politic Slack-channel support group, a forum that now counts more than 5,600 members – most of whom were not hospitalized for their illness, yet have been feeling sick for months after their initial flu-like respiratory symptoms subsided. According to an internal survey within the group, members – the vast majority of whom are under 50 – have experienced symptoms including facial paralysis, seizures, hearing and vision loss, headaches, memory loss, diarrhea, serious weight loss and more.

To me, and I think most people, the definition of ‘mild’, passed down from the WHO and other authorities, meant any case that didn’t require hospitalization at all, that anyone who wasn’t hospitalized was just going to have a small cold and could take care of it at home,” Hannah Davis, the author of a patient-led survey of Body Politic members, told me. “From my point of view, this has been a really harmful narrative and absolutely has misinformed the public. It both prohibits people from taking relevant information into account when deciding their personal risk levels, and it prevents the long-haulers from getting the help they need.”

At this stage, when medical professionals and the public alike are learning about Covid-19 as the pandemic unfolds, it’s important to keep in mind how little we truly know about this vastly complicated disease – and to listen to the experiences of survivors, especially those whose recoveries have been neither quick nor straightforward.

It may be reassuring to describe the majority of Covid-19 cases as “mild” – but perhaps that term isn’t as accurate as we hoped.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7377 on: July 07, 2020, 08:41:52 AM »
Oren,

Exactly right. There are a bunch of likely inputs into the changing death rate. Some of this was evident early on in the pandemic, which suggests that other factors play an important role.

One of the very difficult factors is that we seem to have very poor definitional criteria in use to be able to gather and interpret data. And that varies from place to place and across time. Also it varies in comparison to other diseases, so charting a comparison of any of these diseases to one another becomes much more guesswork than it should be.

Early on, COVID cases seem to have been largely defined by symptoms severe enough to cause people to seek help and hospitalization. Later it was defined by positive tests using tests of varying qualities. Later yet the symptom criteria changed somewhat.

All of this makes it difficult to compare one group or population against another.

Early on, outbreaks hit the most vulnerable groups heavily - the elderly. They have a vastly higher rate for both morbidity and mortality. Now, the elderly know better to hunker down. And the youth were largely then convinced that they have little to fear. But, they have much more to fear than they imagine.

Testing was absent early on, then rationed, then less rationed, and now more aggressively used. The various studies using different tests and criteria, all with different quality standards suggest some significant number of asymptomatic carriers. However, it is still not clear how different asymptomatic and presymptomatic groups are, and what size each is compared to the confirmed population.

Add to that the Oxford protocols (using corticosteroids and immune system suppressants), combined with proning patients, less use of ventilators and more use of ecmo, and earlier intervention. These each have improved survival. How much of the reduction is due to these and other medical interventions?

How much is due to differences in the age demographics of those exposed?

And how much is do to other factors, like spending more time outside in sunshine, and with higher vitamin D (though sun exposure has far more impacts than just vitamin D)? How much is due to changes in sleep? Or exercise? Or mental state? Or genetics? Or ....

There are a very large number of variables. With that, each jurisdiction is using its own methodologies. And where the methodologies for counting are reasonably uniform, interpretation still comes into play, as do human dynamics. Some people easily seek medical help. Some absolutely won’t.

What is fairly clear is that for those confirmed to be infected that across a wide swath of the population, the case fatality rate started at upwards of 15-18% (old people mostly), then fell to about 4.5% where it stabilized for a time. Then fell to 3-3.5% and stabilized. Then fell to 2% and drifted linearly down to 1% where it again stabilized.

That is very odd behavior. And though it isn’t repeated precisely everywhere, the generalities are similar.

Those seem to imply some set of unknown or not understood dynamics. But what those dynamics are is not at all clear.

Then add to that confusion the myriad of different tests with different efficiencies and specificities and of differing types and qualities. 

Using those there are wide variations in apparent asymptomatic carrier rates, and presymptomatic rates without clear follow up to either differentiate these or to firmly classify them. 

And all of these are done against the background of people wanting various outcomes or holding various beliefs (biases) which consciously or unconsciously, intentionally or inadvertently skew the information And the meaning of the information to wildly varying degrees.

Finally, add in several wrong or bad ways to calculate these various parameters to further confuse things.

The net result is a whole lot of uncertainty and confusion. Finally just to add a cherry and toppings, we put a giant nut in charge who is incapable and unwilling to understand any of this, and who absolutely wants to be the center of attention and who then insists on calling the shots, and squelching experts who suggest otherwise, and who at least have some idea of what they are doing and how things should be done.

It’s a wonder the death toll isn’t much higher.

But still this brings us back to both not understanding why the apparent mortality rate per infection is falling, and what that might be telling us.

Maybe it is a genetic shift in the virus and it’s actions. Maybe it is sunshine and vitamin D along with air movement. Maybe it is age distribution and health interventions. Perhaps temporal issues play a large role?

At the moment we are all flying blind. But of course the giant nut misinterprets the falling death rate per confirmed infection set against the background of an explosion in cases -wrongly- as being evidence of some great fictitious success!

Sam



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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7378 on: July 07, 2020, 08:49:48 AM »
Nanning,

I have several friends now who have contracted the virus and “recovered”. Of the half dozen I know, none have fully recovered even two and a half months later. Each has somewhat different lingering effects. Some have fairly constant low grade symptoms. Others are experiencing waves where things get better, then suddenly get worse. The issues they describe most often include breathing difficulties, weakness, sleep issues, cough, lethargy, appetite problems, tingling, chills, terrors and a raft of other symptoms. Weight loss is a major symptom from surviving the infection.

In some cases these seem to be lingering residues of damage the disease caused. In others they appear to be on going immune system reactions. And in others yet they seem to have a psychological component (some variant of PTSD or something like it).

This disease is one to be avoided as fervently as possible. It leaves lasting injury. It is nothing like the cold or flu, or even mumps or measles. Those all do their harm and move on. This bad ass has legs.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7379 on: July 07, 2020, 08:56:02 AM »
TX as a whole has like 2.5K deaths which means they are at 1% or 2% infected total pop MAX

If you derive your numbers from deaths, you are by default 3-4 weeks behind. 28 days ago the confirmed cases rate started to go up in the US and only since yesterday the deaths per capita are rising again.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7380 on: July 07, 2020, 05:39:21 PM »
Jair Bolsonaro has the virus  :-X

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7381 on: July 07, 2020, 05:45:55 PM »
Why does covid survive better on non-porous surfaces? I would think teeny-tiny hidey holes would be better for germ survival?
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7382 on: July 07, 2020, 06:24:35 PM »
Israeli Health Official Resigns Blasting 'Disoriented' Virus Response
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/brazil-bolsonaro-tested-coronavirus-live-updates-200706234641953.html

A top Israeli health official resigned saying her guidance on combatting the coronavirus was being disregarded and the country's containment efforts were "disoriented" as it faced a surging caseload.

The resignation of Siegal Sadetzki, the health ministry's director of public health services, came after Israel re-imposed several lockdown measures in an effort to curb the virus' spread.

"For a few weeks now, our compass for dealing with the pandemic has become disoriented," Sadetzki said. "Despite repeated warnings in different forums, we are watching with frustration as our window of opportunity [to contain the virus] is running out.

"I've reached the conclusion that, in a new context where my professional opinion is not being accepted, it is no longer in my capacity to help prevent the pandemic's spread."


Israel had earned praise in March and April for its fast action against the virus, including the imposition of early travel restrictions. But its re-opening strategy has faced criticism as cases have shot up.

-------------------------------

Schadenfreude: Brazil's Bolsonaro Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/brazil-bolsonaro-tested-coronavirus-live-updates-200706234641953.html

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro says he has tested positive for COVID-19 after months of downplaying its severity. He confirmed the test results while wearing a mask and speaking to reporters in capital Brasilia.

"I'm well, normal. I even want to take a walk around here, but I can't due to medical recommendations," Bolsonaro said.

The president has often appeared in public to shake hands with supporters and mingle with crowds, at times without a mask. He has said his history as an athlete would protect him from the virus, and it would be nothing more than a "little flu" were he to contract it.

Bolsonaro tested negative three times in March after meeting with US President Donald Trump in Florida. Multiple members of his delegation to the US were later reported to be infected with the virus.

-------------------------------

Protective Equipment for US Medical Workers Runs Low Again

Personal protective gear that was in dangerously short supply during the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis in the US is running low again as the virus resumes its rapid spread and the number of hospitalised patients climbs.

A national nursing union is concerned that PPE will have to be reused. A doctors association warns that physicians' offices are closed because they cannot get masks and other supplies. Members of Congress are pushing the Trump administration to devise a national strategy to acquire and distribute gear in anticipation of the crisis worsening into the fall.

"We're five months into this and there are still shortages of gowns, hair covers, shoe covers, masks, N95 masks," said Deborah Burger, president of National Nurses United, who cited results from a survey of the union's members. "They're being doled out and we're still being told to reuse them."

-------------------------------

Serbia: Sandzak Residents Warn of 'Apocalypse' Over Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/serbia-sandzak-residents-warn-apocalypse-coronavirus-200706162422608.html

Residents of Serbia's Sandzak have raised alarm over the number of coronavirus patients in the southwestern region's hospitals amid a rising death toll, appealing for urgent help from the authorities.

Local media and social media users published videos and photos online last month, showing patients in the region's central town of Novi Pazar lying on blankets on the floor of a hospital due to overcrowding.

Over the last few weeks, medical staff and patients in the towns of Novi Pazar, Sjenica and Tutin have reported shortages of necessary equipment and personnel.

-------------------------------

Still 'Knee-Deep' in Coronavirus' 1st Wave: Top US Scientist

The United States is still dealing with its first coronavirus wave, warned Anthony Fauci, its top infectious disease expert.

"We are still knee-deep in the first wave of this," warned Fauci, saying the US never managed to suppress infections to a manageable level before reopening like some European nations.

"We went up, never came down to baseline, and now we're surging back up. So it's a serious situation that we have to address immediately."

Officials have warned that hospitals in some parts of the country are in danger of being overwhelmed, with many states hit particularly hard after they eased virus restrictions.

------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7383 on: July 07, 2020, 06:31:19 PM »
"I'm well, normal. I even want to take a walk around here, but I can't due to medical recommendations," Bolsonaro said

Isn't it funny how he obeys medical recommendations when it's about him? How the turntables table, eh?
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7384 on: July 07, 2020, 06:35:47 PM »
Why does covid survive better on non-porous surfaces? I would think teeny-tiny hidey holes would be better for germ survival?

For how i understand it things like humidity and temperatures play a role here. Microclimate comes to mind. That's just a hunch though.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7385 on: July 07, 2020, 06:52:06 PM »
"I'm well, normal. I even want to take a walk around here, but I can't due to medical recommendations," Bolsonaro said

Isn't it funny how he obeys medical recommendations when it's about him? How the turntables table, eh?
So is he now afraid of a little flu? Listening to expert advice and all?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7386 on: July 07, 2020, 07:56:03 PM »
"I'm well, normal. I even want to take a walk around here, but I can't due to medical recommendations," Bolsonaro said

Isn't it funny how he obeys medical recommendations when it's about him? How the turntables table, eh?
So is he now afraid of a little flu? Listening to expert advice and all?
No, he’s an athlete, has family ties with Chuck Norris,  he’s made of the strongest race of Brazil. Viruses are jumping out scared of him.

I sincerely wish him a lengthy and painful never-recovery.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7387 on: July 07, 2020, 09:31:40 PM »
Political analyst Geraldo Zahran, speaking from Sao Paulo, told Al Jazeera it was only a matter of time before the president contracted the disease with his failure to social distance.

"It is surprising it took so long. In a way, he saw this coming. Since last night, he's been asking to stay away and keep their distance, so he's taking this a bit more seriously now," said Zahran.

... he is already taking hydroxychloroquine - an anti-malarial drug unproven to effectively treat COVID-19.



.. start poppin' that hydoxychloroquin like PEZ - it's not going to help.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7388 on: July 08, 2020, 12:33:31 AM »
COVID-19 Demonstrates Why Wealth Matters
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-covid-wealth.html

Data suggest that the pandemic may exacerbate underlying inequalities.

..."Social distancing is a privilege that comes with resources and wealth, but wealth is not distributed equally in America," said Michal Grinstein-Weiss, the Shanti K. Khinduka Distinguished Professor and director of the SPI. "Wealth gives individuals agency to make choices, like social distancing, that keep themselves and their families healthy."

Black households had a harder time being able to socially distance compared with white peers. Black respondents reported needing to work to make money.

"Lower liquid assets leave people in a position of choosing income over social distance safety," Grinstein-Weiss said. "As money increases, affordability to social distance increases."

... The data was presented during a virtual event titled "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Racial, Gender, and Generational Wealth Gaps," co-hosted with the Center for Household Financial Stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

https://socialpolicyinstitute.wustl.edu/impact-of-COVID-19-on-family-wealth/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7389 on: July 08, 2020, 01:43:15 AM »
Mississippi State Lawmakers Test Positive for COVID-19
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/brazil-bolsonaro-tested-coronavirus-live-updates-200706234641953.html

At least eight state legislators in Mississippi have tested positive for the coronavirus after working for weeks in a Capitol where many people stood or sat close together and did not wear masks.

Among those who have publicly acknowledged having COVID-19 are Lieutenant Governor Delbert Hosemann, who presides over the state Senate, and House Speaker Philip Gunn.

The state health officer, Dr. Thomas Dobbs, said Tuesday there are also at least 11 other suspected cases of the virus among legislators and Capitol employees.

-------------------------------

Intensive care units at 54 hospitals in Florida are full as Covid-19 cases surge, according to data published on Tuesday by the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration.

Talking to the media, Gov. DeSantis announced that another Covid-specific nursing home will open with 150 beds. This will be the 12th of its kind in the state, he said at a press conference

... “Florida alone is averaging more than 8,000 cases per day over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins University data. That’s more than twice the daily rate of the entire European Union, which consists of about 450 million people.”

---------------------------------



-------------------------------

Disney Says It Will Go Ahead With Saturday Reopening of Walt Disney World
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/brazil-bolsonaro-tested-coronavirus-live-updates-200706234641953.html

Walt Disney Co will stick to its plans to reopen its Walt Disney World theme parks in Orlando, Florida, to a limited number of guests on Saturday, the company said in a statement.

Florida's coronavirus cases have soared in the last month, with the state's daily count topping 10,000 three times in the last week.

Some workers have signed a petition asking Disney to delay Walt Disney World's reopening. 

------------------------------------

Serbia Returns to Curfew Amid Surging Number of New COVID-19 Cases
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/brazil-bolsonaro-tested-coronavirus-live-updates-200706234641953.html

President Aleksandar Vucic said Serbia will return to a long weekend curfew and introduce other restrictions, following a surging number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths.

"All Belgrade hospitals are nearly full," he said in a televised address to the nation. "Particularly Belgrade is critical, the numbers in Belgrade are very bad."

After Vucic's statement, several thousand people began gathering in front of the parliament in Belgrade's central square. Around 10pm local time, a small group of protesters pushed past a police cordon, broke through a door and entered the parliament building. But police later pushed them back.

Serbia, a country of 7 million people, has reported 16,168 coronavirus infections and 330 deaths. But the numbers are spiking and 299 cases and 13 deaths were reported on Tuesday alone.

These numbers appear to be a gross undercount.

See also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg271076.html#msg271076
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 02:40:47 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7390 on: July 08, 2020, 02:31:39 AM »
Spain's Coronavirus Antibodies Study Adds Evidence Against Herd Immunity
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control said that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.

It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31304-0/fulltext

There have been similar studies in China and the United States and "the key finding from these representative cohorts is that most of the population appears to have remained unexposed" to Covid-19, "even in areas with widespread virus circulation," said a Lancet commentary published along with Spain's findings.

"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.

------------------------------

Immunity to the Coronavirus is 'Fragile' and 'Short-lived,' Immunologist Warns
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/06/immunity-to-coronavirus-is-fragile-and-short-lived-expert-warns.html

It is not a "safe bet" to rely on immunity to Covid-19 as a strategy for coping with the pandemic, one expert has warned, adding that herd immunity strategies were "probably never going to work."

... Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, said that in towns and cities where there had been coronavirus infections, only 10% to 15% of the population was likely to be immune.

"And immunity to this thing looks rather fragile — it looks like some people might have antibodies for a few months and then it might wane, so it's not looking like a safe bet," he said. "It's a very deceitful virus and immunity to it is very confusing and rather short-lived."

Top White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci speculated last month that if Covid-19 behaved like other coronaviruses, there "likely isn't going to be a long duration of immunity" from antibodies or a vaccine. Meanwhile, the WHO has stated that it remains unclear whether those who have already caught the virus once will be immune to getting it again.

"Anybody who thinks that it has got more mild or gone away or that somehow the problem's going to solve itself is kidding themselves," he told CNBC. "It's still a very lethal virus, it still infects people very, very readily. And I think humanity isn't used to dealing with those realities."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7391 on: July 08, 2020, 04:11:14 AM »
Israel acted swiftly and successfully in the first wave, but has failed miserably to capitalize on it - and is now mired in a nasty second wave. Click to enlarge and zoom.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7392 on: July 08, 2020, 06:10:54 AM »
Israel acted swiftly and successfully in the first wave, but has failed miserably to capitalize on it - and is now mired in a nasty second wave. Click to enlarge and zoom.
The same is happening literally everywhere with air conditioning. Saudi, Qatar, Singapore, etc. Europe is going to have a second wave in autumn that dwarves the first and it is actually probably going to be worse off for missing the mild summer event which is likely going to be prophylactic to populations as a whole in the NHEM (IMO).

The same happened in Spanish Flu / mortality doubled between summer and autumn.

Also, I should mention there is now one county in Mississippi with .25% IFR, and the worst IFRs in Georgia are drifting above .35%. The IFR in Navajo Nation is now .22%.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7393 on: July 08, 2020, 08:39:55 AM »
Spain's Coronavirus Antibodies Study Adds Evidence Against Herd Immunity
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control said that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.

It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31304-0/fulltext

There have been similar studies in China and the United States and "the key finding from these representative cohorts is that most of the population appears to have remained unexposed" to Covid-19, "even in areas with widespread virus circulation," said a Lancet commentary published along with Spain's findings.

"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.


Fwiw the study also shows that near 90% of participants who declared having passed COVID-19 more than two weeks before being analyzed were found positive in antibodies. That’s good news as it means immunity may not be as fragile as your second piece of news implies.
What the study shows is that the first wave only needed to reach a small % of population to knock out an entire country.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7394 on: July 08, 2020, 08:52:52 AM »
Interesting article from Hungary:

https://hvg.hu/itthon/20200708_magyar_uszok_koronavirus_antitest_veradas_verminta

28 swimmers (National Team), who got infected in March (proved by PCR tests) wanted to give blood for antibody treatment. NONE had antibodies. Then they tested another 29 national team members (other sports, not swimmers), who also had the virus in March. Only one had antibodies.

This probably supports the notion that people with strong immune systems (and likely children/very young people) go through the infection without creating antibodies. This might only be a small percent (10-20% maybe???) of the infected population though...

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7395 on: July 08, 2020, 09:20:04 AM »
My thinking is that people who did not develop any symptoms the first time are not at much risk from the virus, even if they contract it again due to lack of antibodies. However, if such reinfection is possible it will make it that much harder to achieve herd immunity.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7396 on: July 08, 2020, 09:23:37 AM »
German artist /u/SmallLebowsky does a comic every Wednesday and posts it to Reddit. Just had to share today's post.

Quote
Es ist Mittwoch🧪meine Kerle
(It's Wednesday, my dudes)



Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/de/comments/hnc6fp/es_ist_mittwochmeine_kerle/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7397 on: July 08, 2020, 10:09:28 AM »
It is likely that the initial dose size and route matter in the immune response.

A low initial dose might lead to a localized cellular immune response that never needs antibodies. Yet if it is screened by PCR the virus would be found.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7398 on: July 08, 2020, 11:36:30 AM »
can anyone explain German humour ? :) b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7399 on: July 08, 2020, 11:46:55 AM »
can anyone explain German humour ? :) b.c.

LOL
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain