Here’s that “cumulative deaths per million” graph again. This time, I’ve chosen some Early Adopters - Belgium, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom - early European hotspots. And added European Union for an overall picture.
Notice the smooth curves. The UK is a bit ragged, probably due to under-reporting of weekend deaths. All, though, show the same pattern: an exponential rise for the first 20-30 days, then the curve flattens. Different governments, different lockdown solutions, but all trending to less than 0.1% fatality. Maybe there’ll be a new exponential rise in a few months, but from the above graph, it’s looking less likely all the time.
Which makes posts like this one look a bit silly:
Without any medical care, IFR is somewhere in the 5% - 10% range.
Converting percentages back into real numbers, you get the following:
10% mortality worldwide: 700 million deaths
5% mortality: 350 million deaths
1% mortality: 70 million deaths
0.2% mortality: 14 million deaths
Bear in mind that six months into the pandemic, there have been a half-million deaths reported. Allowing for under-reporting, the true figure may be over a million. But those curves are flattening, and it’s unlikely that we’ll get anywhere near that 1% figure, let alone 5% or 10%. People just love bad news, I guess.
Other people looking for bad news have seen the curves flattening and changed the message:
I was asking myself if there’s an index on how many people get disabled by the virus. A lot of young people end with severe chronic problems.
But these official statistics miss quite a lot. Specifically, they fail to represent Covid-19 morbidity — the harm that the disease causes, even in people that it doesn’t kill. In terms of measuring the long-term impact of the disease — and accurately evaluating risk — that’s a big problem.
There are quite a few stories out there which support this. A couple I know may have had a mild case in March. Both of them still have symptoms of extreme lassitude. The two facts may be related, but it’s also possible that (a) it wasn’t COVID, and (b) the tiredness is a lockdown effect.
Other stories are more serious: blood clots leading to coronaries or strokes, perhaps months or years later. People whose lungs look to be thirty years older than they are. So far, though, it’s all anecdotal. No studies and no firm data. We’re told over and over on this forum that without data there’s no evidence. And without evidence, it’s no better than a guess.
My thoughts on why death rates are dropping:
(1) First infections took out the ‘low hanging fruit’ - the old and the sick. After that, the virus had to work harder to kill people.
(2) New medical knowledge is improving treatment.
(3) “Stay healthy” messages are getting through - hand washing, disinfecting surfaces, masks, distancing.
(4) People have learned that crowded rooms are unsafe, especially when unmasked people are coughing, shouting, singing, laughing.
(3) and (4) look to be unlikely. Many people don’t follow advice, and if they did the infection rate would be dropping, which it mostly isn’t. Or not as fast as the death figures.
Or, my theory. I’m not a medical expert, or a virology expert. Just somebody with a reasonable IQ who likes to think his way through problems. Feel free to call me a Loon:
A COVID-19 carrier breathes or coughs out droplets containing live virus. If the virus doesn’t infect a host, it dies. Thus if there are infectious people around, dead viruses accumulate (outdoors, obviously - everybody is rigorously cleaning indoor surfaces!). The droplets dry out; the virus corpses are blown into the wind. People breathe them in.
Inactivated (i.e. dead) viruses can create partial immunity to influenza - possibly COVID-19 as well? If so, once the first storm has passed, people are breathing in those dead viruses, and gaining some sort of resistance. Probably not enough to avoid getting sick, but maybe enough to avoid getting dead. The more inactive virus lying around, the fewer deaths. It makes sense to my limited knowledge, but I'm no kind of an expert.