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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 65

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 292869 times)

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7600 on: July 13, 2020, 01:32:53 PM »
Neven, as it has often been noted here, very low percentages of antibody test results within a population are always suspect due to accuracy. If you measure 1% or 2% that can very easily be 0% as there are very many false positives.

We need to concentrate on those measurements that have a fairly high percentage of positives in the population. Also, if you have many data points then you should probably consider the outliers false. If almost all data point to the same direction and some are outliers then the outliers are likely false.

I am still waiting for your explanation though to the excess dead/serology data for the UK, Sweden, Belgium, Spain, Italy, NYC and numerous others which all point to cca 1%. How can you disregard those????

also, how can you believe that only 1 in 5 people have antibodies when there are many places where serology shows 25-60% of people have antibodies???
And I'm still waiting for your comment on the graph I posted a couple of days ago:



Never mind the serology data - it's a matter of interpretation, and interpretations can easily be subject to unconscious bias.

Look at the graph. That's REAL data. All the curves are flattening, pointing to a final result of around 0.1%. Is there any way of explaining what's happening there, all over Europe? It's possible that there'll be a sharp spike upwards, but it's looking unlikely. Would you care to give us your interpretation of it, now you have some undeniable facts in front of you?
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7601 on: July 13, 2020, 01:50:57 PM »
Sorry but I just have to say something:

Quote
Is there any way of explaining what's happening there, all over Europe?

Errr...Europe controlled the disease?

Human intervention makes all the difference with this epidemic. Places that took serious measures to control the disease, lo and behold, controlled it.

Now they must have a good plan to keep the numbers down during summer and then winter, which will be a different ball game.
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7602 on: July 13, 2020, 02:05:51 PM »
Sorry but I just have to say something:

Quote
Is there any way of explaining what's happening there, all over Europe?

Errr...Europe controlled the disease?

Human intervention makes all the difference with this epidemic. Places that took serious measures to control the disease, lo and behold, controlled it.
But El Cid is saying:
Quote
I am still waiting for your explanation though to the excess dead/serology data for the UK, Sweden, Belgium, Spain, Italy, NYC and numerous others which all point to cca 1%. How can you disregard those????
His fully-backed-by-science figures "prove" that Real Life is wrong by a factor of 10. Perhaps you should take it up with him. ;)
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bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7603 on: July 13, 2020, 02:24:00 PM »
In Europe lockdowns worked and infections are held on low level in most countries.

After leaving the office last Friday I went to the city for a dinner and drinks with my wife. Everything seemed normal except there are almost no foreign tourists in Helsinki this July. Nobody wore a mask, but hardly anybody wore a mask here even at the height of the epidemic. Maybe it's a cultural thing but it feels strange how masks are such a big deal in many places.

We've had a total of 329 deaths out of the population of 5.5 million. 38 confirmed cases during the past 7 days, 48 cases on the 7 days before that. Economy is either badly hit or a bloody smoldering ruin depending who you ask, but it's the same everywhere.

Health officials are planning for the obvious 2nd wave. It helps enormously to have experience how to treat the epidemic. This probably means more targeted approach. For example schools are likely to remain open on the next round because closing them caused problems for the kids but didn't slow the virus much.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7604 on: July 13, 2020, 03:42:11 PM »
Quote
And I'm still waiting for your comment on the graph I posted a couple of days ago
Greylib, what did you think of my response? Countermeasures (both country level and individual level) and data aggregation of hotspots and uninfected regions.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7605 on: July 13, 2020, 03:49:40 PM »
Quote
And I'm still waiting for your comment on the graph I posted a couple of days ago
Greylib, what did you think of my response? Countermeasures (both country level and individual level) and data aggregation of hotspots and uninfected regions.
Your reply is fine by me. I suspect, though, that there's more. A lot of different countries, with different approaches to countermeasures, some with open borders and some with not - all showing the same curve. Something else is going on, I feel.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7606 on: July 13, 2020, 04:05:36 PM »
Neven, as it has often been noted here, very low percentages of antibody test results within a population are always suspect due to accuracy. If you measure 1% or 2% that can very easily be 0% as there are very many false positives.

Sure, but that knife cuts both ways. There are problems with all data, which allow for different interpretations, but one wouldn't know it if one followed media reports only.

And again, I don't know the details of the Croatian serological study. I know that for the Ischgl study they took a lot of precautions to exclude false positives/negatives.

Quote
We need to concentrate on those measurements that have a fairly high percentage of positives in the population. Also, if you have many data points then you should probably consider the outliers false. If almost all data point to the same direction and some are outliers then the outliers are likely false.

Could the outliers be right too, but for different reasons, as the global population isn't homogeneous? My point is that circumstances count, and not everything can be ascribed to 'the worst terror-virus evah'.

This is important to keep in mind when thinking about the causes of this crisis, how it could have come to this, and whether to solve the symptom (vaccines) or whether the cause (system geared towards increasing concentrated wealth) must be eliminated.

Quote
I am still waiting for your explanation though to the excess dead/serology data for the UK, Sweden, Belgium, Spain, Italy, NYC and numerous others which all point to cca 1%. How can you disregard those????

I'm not disregarding them. I'm saying that if IFR is more than 0.2%, it's because of various reasons, like low population health, demographics, genetics, environmental conditions, etc.

Quote
also, how can you believe that only 1 in 5 people have antibodies when there are many places where serology shows 25-60% of people have antibodies???

I don't believe it's necessarily 1 in 5. It could be 1 in 3, or 1 in 2. I think there is enough scientific evidence already that shows it isn't zero, or negligible even. It's a serious factor that has consequences for the official narrative.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7607 on: July 13, 2020, 04:20:00 PM »
Neven help us understand your point. What should Florida do right now?

Florida has a record number of new cases with the number of deaths climbing, a positivity rate of 19%, and not reporting hospitalization levels since it hit almost 100%.

C'mon Neven stop concern trolling, misinforming and cherry-picking, and take a stand.

I don't know what Florida should do. I don't think there's enough time to reduce obesity and diabetes. There's no time to change demographics and reduce the high concentration of elderly people, most of whom are probably overmedicated. It's too late to introduce Medicare4All and reduce cost- and corner-cutting in the health sector.

Florida, as well as many other places in the western world (especially the US of A, which is sick beyond belief), pays the price for decades of neoliberal globalist policies, for rising inequality, for the hollowing out of culture and society, for turning people into stressed, unhappy consumption addicts.

One can either accept this and take it like a (wo)man who knows that in life everything has its price. Or one can be a pouting child and whine about how unfair it is that the cake can't be had and eaten too.

Quote
If you are honest, allow us to understand you, because right now you are coming across as a dishonest troll.

And you're coming across as an emotional little authoritarian who only knows how to shame and shout down people, because his lack of any real vision, based on years of study and life experience, makes him react out of his conditioned gut only.

Can you handle this, or can you only dish out? Because if it's the latter I'll be more soft on you and let your insults wash off my back.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7608 on: July 13, 2020, 04:43:03 PM »
Neven you know I can handle it. But at least my "emotions" are honest and open for all to see and judge me. Your answer isn't. Your answer avoids the issue altogether, an issue that apparently you feel very confident about. Ask yourself why.

Quote
I don't know what Florida should do.

I think you know that Florida needs to shutdown, bring the number of new cases down and then reopen following sanitary precautions. That is PROVEN to work. You just can't say it without losing breaking your misinformation bubble. So you just deflect the question.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7609 on: July 13, 2020, 04:51:44 PM »
But just saying the right thing on the internet all the time has no bearing on what actually goes on in Florida. You overfocus on something which is not bound to happen in real life. World peace and wasting no money on fancy weapons would be cool too but we don´t get them either.






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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7610 on: July 13, 2020, 05:20:31 PM »
Meanwhile, in my neck of the woods:

Quote
Capak: 2.4% of people tested in Croatia have coronavirus antibodies

ZAGREB, July 13 (Hina) – Serological tests have shown that 2.4% of the people tested in Croatia have antibodies to the COVID-19 coronavirus, the director of the Croatian Institute of Public Health and member of the national COVID-19 response team, Krunoslav Capak, said in an interview with RTL television on Sunday evening.

“2.4% of the people tested, or 1,054, have developed antibodies, which proves that they were in contact with the coronavirus. This is a lot more than the recorded number of cases. That means that among us there are a lot more people who came into contact with the infection than we know. Only a few of them have neutralising antibodies, which means they are not protected from reinfection,” Capak said, adding that only 2% of those with igG (immunoglobulin G) antibodies had coronavirus-neutralising antibodies.

He said that the results of the serological testing would be made public in the coming days.

I've seen some extrapolations. Population: 4.076 million x 2.4% = 97,824. COVID-19 deaths: 119. IFR: 0.12% ?

Press reports of scientific matters are generally useless.  It's entirely possible that the assay used has a 2% false-positive rate. If so, then only 0.4% of the population has been infected. It's entirely possible that those with neutralizing antibodies are the only true positive individuals.

Based on the TWiV podcast presented above, I'd expect the vast majority of recovered individuals to have neutralizing antibodies.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7611 on: July 13, 2020, 05:23:06 PM »
Neven you know I can handle it. But at least my "emotions" are honest and open for all to see and judge me. Your answer isn't. Your answer avoids the issue altogether, an issue that apparently you feel very confident about. Ask yourself why.

Quote
I don't know what Florida should do.

I think you know that Florida needs to shutdown, bring the number of new cases down and then reopen following sanitary precautions. That is PROVEN to work. You just can't say it without losing breaking your misinformation bubble. So you just deflect the question.

I honestly don't know what they should do. I'm not following the news there that closely. I don't know where the hot spots are, what the demographics are, hospitalisation rates. And either way, Florida isn't the whole world, or representative of it. I know what they have to do after everything is over, though. If that ever happens.

If the IFR there turns out to be higher than 0.2%, it's because there are a lot of old people, probably a lot of obese people with diabetes, who knows what the health care system is like, given that the US is a third world country.

I talk in general about the disease, its causes and consequences, and what it means for the world. And then you come barging in with your Florida shutdown, which is a deflection tactic, not unsimilar to what climate risk deniers do ('how about the sun, huh?').
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7612 on: July 13, 2020, 05:26:30 PM »
It is interesting, even quite shocking, that they used a ratio of 44 actual infections to each confirmed infection, and still calculated 0.6% IFR even without taking into account excess unconfirmed mortality.

Whoever thinks IFR is 0.05% needs to read this study in detail and find any weak spots. This is science, not CNN, not Fox News, not websites with hidden agendas, science.

Do you also have a message to those who think IFR is at least 1.0%, which seems to be the consensus around here?

And you clearly don't think that only 1 in 5 persons who come into contact with SARS-CoV-2 develop anti-bodies (the rest have some form of T-Cell immunity or anti-bodies in their mucous membrane). Could it be 1 in 4, 1 in 3, 1 in 2? If it's 1 in 2, how does that change the IFR story? I guess this science is disregarded/debunked/deligitimized because it doesn't get as much media attention.
The consensus is not "IFR at least 1%", it is 0.5%-1%.

About the 1 in 5 or 1 in 2 thing, do you realize there was no research that showed that? Only a piece of misinformation twisted by SPR? The actual research they cited did not give such numbers and did not make such claims. There was a very small percentage of extra people with no antibodies in the blood but with antibodies in the mucous membranes. Besides the whole study was based on an extremely small sample size, so certainly could not prove anything in that regard - but it did not even make such findings at all. So I am not ignoring the science on the matter, simply there is no science on the matter. If such science comes along I will happily accept it.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7613 on: July 13, 2020, 05:30:59 PM »
Neven, as it has often been noted here, very low percentages of antibody test results within a population are always suspect due to accuracy. If you measure 1% or 2% that can very easily be 0% as there are very many false positives.

We need to concentrate on those measurements that have a fairly high percentage of positives in the population. Also, if you have many data points then you should probably consider the outliers false. If almost all data point to the same direction and some are outliers then the outliers are likely false.

I am still waiting for your explanation though to the excess dead/serology data for the UK, Sweden, Belgium, Spain, Italy, NYC and numerous others which all point to cca 1%. How can you disregard those????

also, how can you believe that only 1 in 5 people have antibodies when there are many places where serology shows 25-60% of people have antibodies???
And I'm still waiting for your comment on the graph I posted a couple of days ago:



Never mind the serology data - it's a matter of interpretation, and interpretations can easily be subject to unconscious bias.

Look at the graph. That's REAL data. All the curves are flattening, pointing to a final result of around 0.1%. Is there any way of explaining what's happening there, all over Europe? It's possible that there'll be a sharp spike upwards, but it's looking unlikely. Would you care to give us your interpretation of it, now you have some undeniable facts in front of you?

IMO, the explanation --

Europe is northerly. Like, really northerly. Why comparing it to the US re: COVID is stupid.

We have seen the same happen in NE states NOT heavily impacted in spring wave. Cases have died down to near 0, so have deaths.

Come 9/15, Vit D is going to start plunging and people are going to start layering and going inside again. Transmission and mortality will skyrocket. All of Europe will end up at an IFR of about .3%+ and so will the US. There will be a period of mass death in October and November across Europe and the US that will dwarf the March-May wave. It could very well be WORSE in Europe as they have removed the inoculating impact of the relatively mild summer wave.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7614 on: July 13, 2020, 05:33:05 PM »
Neven you know I can handle it. But at least my "emotions" are honest and open for all to see and judge me. Your answer isn't. Your answer avoids the issue altogether, an issue that apparently you feel very confident about. Ask yourself why.

Quote
I don't know what Florida should do.

I think you know that Florida needs to shutdown, bring the number of new cases down and then reopen following sanitary precautions. That is PROVEN to work. You just can't say it without losing breaking your misinformation bubble. So you just deflect the question.

I honestly don't know what they should do. I'm not following the news there that closely. I don't know where the hot spots are, what the demographics are, hospitalisation rates. And either way, Florida isn't the whole world, or representative of it. I know what they have to do after everything is over, though. If that ever happens.

If the IFR there turns out to be higher than 0.2%, it's because there are a lot of old people, probably a lot of obese people with diabetes, who knows what the health care system is like, given that the US is a third world country.

I talk in general about the disease, its causes and consequences, and what it means for the world. And then you come barging in with your Florida shutdown, which is a deflection tactic, not unsimilar to what climate risk deniers do ('how about the sun, huh?').
Is Europe really better in this regard? For every London or Paris you have a Czech Republic or a Poland, medically speaking. I find it difficult to believe rural Europe is better medically speaking than rural America, and rural Europe has much higher populations as a whole.

Healthcare in NYC is the best in the world, I am sure Austria might be comparable, but to say the US is a third world country is to imply the same for Europe (if so, ok, you are correct_.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7615 on: July 13, 2020, 05:37:08 PM »
But just saying the right thing on the internet all the time has no bearing on what actually goes on in Florida.

Why should it have bearing on what actually goes on in Florida? Because Archimid barges in with it? Is he the conference moderator here who decides what the subject is?

What happens in Florida, doesn't change the big picture one iota. And I'm not going to pretend I'm some rightous, caring person by shouting 'WHAT ABOUT FLORIDA, YOU ASSHOLE?!' down to people to shut them up.

Quote
You overfocus on something which is not bound to happen in real life. World peace and wasting no money on fancy weapons would be cool too but we don´t get them either.

So, basically, you're saying it's all hopeless. I think I agree.

But if all wasn't hopeless, it would be because the occurrence of bad things potentially increases awareness of the reasons that caused those bad things to happen. If one would read this thread only, one would think that the reason is 'bad, bad virus' and 'Trump!'. Which explains why the focus is entirely on vaccines and replacing the orange clown with whatever neoliberal fascist. Which won't solve anything at a systemic level.

Al Qaeda and the Taliban have been replaced with viruses. Neoliberal crony capitalism has hit the jackpot with this one.
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7616 on: July 13, 2020, 05:43:52 PM »
IMO we should go back to posting information updates from the virus rather than debating over the CFR and measures to be taken.

CFR is likely under-reported, and that there's considerable incentive for governments to under-report this figure to quell panic.

At this point the US appears to be on the brink of another shutdown.


Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7617 on: July 13, 2020, 05:47:53 PM »
The consensus is not "IFR at least 1%", it is 0.5%-1%.

Say it to El Cid.  ;D

Quote
About the 1 in 5 or 1 in 2 thing, do you realize there was no research that showed that? Only a piece of misinformation twisted by SPR? The actual research they cited did not give such numbers and did not make such claims.

Yes, it did. The lead author said that exact thing in an interview. I posted the quote here.

The science may be wrong, but you're dismissing it out of hand. Everything that doesn't fall in line with the official narrative, is dismissed out of hand. On the other hand, if it's bad and scary, it is immediately accepted as almost certainly true, even if only anecdotal.

In the past two days, I've posted a video and an article from The Conversation about T cell immunity. No reaction.

Everything is set in stone. IFR simply cannot be lower than 0.5%. That's as far as we're willing to go.

Quote
If such science comes along I will happily accept it.

I hope so. I hope you don't wait until peer pressure subsides.
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7618 on: July 13, 2020, 06:07:27 PM »
In the US, covid is killing a far larger percentage of Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans than of Whites.

Are those groups also guilty of excessive fear for this virus?

Most of the most public voices in the US who are saying not to worry much about this virus are also famous as racists.

These things, fairly or unfairly, color my perception of those elsewhere who are dismissive of (to me) realistic concerns about the virus.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7619 on: July 13, 2020, 06:23:45 PM »
IMO we should go back to posting information updates from the virus rather than debating over the CFR and measures to be taken.

Yes, please!

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7620 on: July 13, 2020, 06:25:27 PM »
In the US, covid is killing a far larger percentage of Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans than of Whites.

Is the reason genetic or socio-economic? I'm asking out of curiosity.

Quote
Are those groups also guilty of excessive fear for this virus?

No, the reason could simply be that they are exploited more by a system that seeks to profit off of people's health. As minorities are structurally kept in a position of unequal opportunities, their health is probably less than that of most Whites. And then, when a virus comes along, even if it's similar to influenza...

The problem is the system, not the virus.

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Most of the most public voices in the US who are saying not to worry much about this virus are also famous as racists.

I'm not saying not to worry, I'm railing against the hype and propaganda that is used to distract from the real causes, and to transfer, grow and concentrate even more wealth even faster.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7621 on: July 13, 2020, 06:26:46 PM »
I will respect everyone's wishes here and stop posting things that go against the established facts. I'm going to lay low and wait for more information.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7622 on: July 13, 2020, 06:31:34 PM »
Thanks for the clarifications, Neven.

Yes, we should all be constantly reminding everyone about the underlying conditions making more and more 'covids' and other types of preventable tragedies inevitable.

"they are exploited more by a system that seeks to profit off of people's health"

Yes, that seems to be the main reason for the disparities.

Please do, Neven, continue to point out the bigger conditions that will continue to destroy us long after covid leaves the headlines and the ICUs. I think you can do so effectively without trying to downplay the current crisis. But I get it if you just want to bow out for a while.

Thanks again for a creating a great forum and blog, by the way.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7623 on: July 13, 2020, 06:36:41 PM »
Dearest Neven,
Before you lie low, I completely agree that this virus is being used to transfer massive wealth in the US. But do you see this everywhere or just in the US?
In Ireland I see the opposite (private healthcare was (temporarily) abolished and the private hospitals and workers taken into the public system, worker's wages were paid by the state up to a reasonable maximum amount).
In Austria?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7624 on: July 13, 2020, 06:51:16 PM »
It is not at all about righteousness.  It's about honesty and functional solutions to real-world problems.

Florida is having a real problem, their hospitals are becoming overwhelmed with c19 patients. What is your honest solution to the problem? Is it even a problem?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7625 on: July 13, 2020, 08:36:24 PM »
It is not at all about righteousness.  It's about honesty and functional solutions to real-world problems.

Florida is having a real problem, their hospitals are becoming overwhelmed with c19 patients. What is your honest solution to the problem? Is it even a problem?
The only solution I can see is for them to be less Floridan (Floridian?). And for the Texans to be less Texan. Since that isn't going to happen, they'll just have to deal with whatever the fates bring them. They've been warned, which is all anyone can do unless you're willing to break several articles of the Constitution.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7626 on: July 13, 2020, 08:46:54 PM »
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 09:28:41 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7627 on: July 13, 2020, 09:09:47 PM »
Quote
The only solution I can see is for them to be less Floridan (Floridian?). And for the Texans to be less Texan.

You are unwilling to see solutions. The solution is simple and is the same everywhere.

For the individual, the solution is distance, hand washing, and if needed, masks.
For society, the solution is to test, track, and isolate.

The more leaders and individuals partake in the solution the faster the problem is solved.

This may not apply once the NH winter sets in.
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7628 on: July 13, 2020, 09:23:14 PM »
Our entire society depends on crowded gatherings, and crowded indoor rooms, and crowded transportation. 

In fact, if there's anything that defines the 21st century, it's crowds, massive historical crowds.

Our way of life is severely threatened.  Should this virus continue to produce massive rates of hospitalizations, our way of life may in fact, be over.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7629 on: July 13, 2020, 09:37:29 PM »
The virus can do that only if it is there. We have the capacity to eradicate it, even now. But winter is coming.
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7630 on: July 13, 2020, 09:51:14 PM »
Quote
The only solution I can see is for them to be less Floridan (Floridian?). And for the Texans to be less Texan.

You are unwilling to see solutions. The solution is simple and is the same everywhere.

For the individual, the solution is distance, hand washing, and if needed, masks.
For society, the solution is to test, track, and isolate.
I'm perfectly willing to see solutions. It's the good people of Florida and Texas that aren't. Do you see a solution to THAT problem? If you do, tell us what it is. If you don't please stop nagging us for one.
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etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7631 on: July 13, 2020, 10:07:32 PM »
Quote
The only solution I can see is for them to be less Floridan (Floridian?). And for the Texans to be less Texan.

You are unwilling to see solutions. The solution is simple and is the same everywhere.

For the individual, the solution is distance, hand washing, and if needed, masks.
For society, the solution is to test, track, and isolate.
I'm perfectly willing to see solutions. It's the good people of Florida and Texas that aren't. Do you see a solution to THAT problem? If you do, tell us what it is. If you don't please stop nagging us for one.
The problem comes when the government doesn't make its part of the duty. School is mandatory for kids, and there is no way to go around that. So you just have to send your kids to school and pray (hope would be too optimistic) that they won't get sick. My oldest boy tells me that there would be 8 cases in his school (around 1300 kids, 12 to 20 years old).
Luxembourg is now at 66 cases per week per 100'000 inhabitants, growing everyday since July 1st, growing every week (today's average compared to last week's average) since June 6th.
It creates crazy situation where there is no good way out of it. If you follow the rule, you're in danger, and if you don't follow it, you're out. Maybe it's good to show to the kids that in some cases, it is ok not to follow the rules.
Maybe I am too scared of exponential growth.

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7632 on: July 13, 2020, 10:29:48 PM »
Article by lowe in science blogs:

"from The Lancet on a large study in Spain. Testing tens of thousands of people across the country continues to show that (on average) only about 5% of the population is seropositive (that is, has antibodies to the virus)."

"at least one-third of the people who now test positive never showed any symptoms at all. "

"we are still not sure if this means that 95% of the Spanish population has never been exposed to the virus, because we don’t know how many people might have cleared it without raising enough of an antibody response to still be detectable. "

" 40% of asymptomatic patients went completely seronegative during their convalescence."

"At a minimum, you’d want to know antibody levels over time, T-cell response over time, and (importantly) what a protective profile looks like for both of those. We barely have insight into any of this: the large-scale data are just a snapshot of antibody levels, and that’s not enough."

"We could have people who look vulnerable but aren’t – perhaps they show no antibodies, but still have a protective T-cell response. Or we could have people who look like they might be protected, but aren’t – perhaps they showed an antibody response many weeks ago that has now declined, and they don’t have protective levels of T-cells to back them up."

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

This references a twitter thread by Bleicher:

" Virus must get through mucous membranes, a physical barrier. 2. Innate immunity can destroy virus before it starts. 3. Neutralizing antibodies and memory B cells protect against future infection 4. T cells destroy infected cells"

https://twitter.com/pbleic/status/1278357445023109121

Note that it is much more difficult to test for T-cell and B-cell response than it is to test for antibodies. Very few results have been published for T and B cell response compared to the antibody serological results.

sidd


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7633 on: July 13, 2020, 10:34:03 PM »
IMO we should go back to posting information updates from the virus rather than debating over the CFR and measures to be taken.

CFR is likely under-reported, and that there's considerable incentive for governments to under-report this figure to quell panic.

At this point the US appears to be on the brink of another shutdown.

There has been much debate as to which has been more underreported, cases or deaths.  Since deaths are much more visible, I would guess cases.  Just my opinion.  Regarding the actual numbers, the CFR for each month in the U.S. is as follows (based on the official numbers):

February  1.5%
March:     2.7%
April:       6.6%
May:        5.8%
June:       2.4%
July:        1.1%  (to date)

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7634 on: July 13, 2020, 10:34:55 PM »
Article by lowe in science blogs:

"from The Lancet on a large study in Spain. Testing tens of thousands of people across the country continues to show that (on average) only about 5% of the population is seropositive (that is, has antibodies to the virus)."

"at least one-third of the people who now test positive never showed any symptoms at all. "

"we are still not sure if this means that 95% of the Spanish population has never been exposed to the virus, because we don’t know how many people might have cleared it without raising enough of an antibody response to still be detectable. "

" 40% of asymptomatic patients went completely seronegative during their convalescence."

"At a minimum, you’d want to know antibody levels over time, T-cell response over time, and (importantly) what a protective profile looks like for both of those. We barely have insight into any of this: the large-scale data are just a snapshot of antibody levels, and that’s not enough."

"We could have people who look vulnerable but aren’t – perhaps they show no antibodies, but still have a protective T-cell response. Or we could have people who look like they might be protected, but aren’t – perhaps they showed an antibody response many weeks ago that has now declined, and they don’t have protective levels of T-cells to back them up."

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

This references a twitter thread by Bleicher:

" Virus must get through mucous membranes, a physical barrier. 2. Innate immunity can destroy virus before it starts. 3. Neutralizing antibodies and memory B cells protect against future infection 4. T cells destroy infected cells"

https://twitter.com/pbleic/status/1278357445023109121

Note that it is much more difficult to test for T-cell and B-cell response than it is to test for antibodies. Very few results have been published for T and B cell response compared to the antibody serological results.

sidd

This makes perfect sense, illustrates some of Neven's points, and is a point I have also been making. I do believe there is a substantial % of the population where the innate immune response neutralizes the virus hence no symptoms NOR asymptomatic transmission NOR antibody response. Just no response at all (besides virus dead).

This would explain why NYC is at seemingly herd immunity with 35% infected. If 10%+ of the population has innate immunity, NYC is already at the same % of infected / immune it got in three waves of Spanish Flu (45%+).

Innate immunity could also vary depending on ethnic composition / healthiness / etc. Perhaps this is why CDMX and NYC are getting hit so hard. And this also explains why Sweden is getting severely impacted and not Norway and Finland (besides the lockdown difference, Sweden has enormous immigrant ghettos where the spread has been occurring).

With that, I think we can actually begin to develop an agreeable hypothesis for those in this thread.

1) COVID is real. lol
2) COVID disproportionately effects the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, esp obesity
3) COVID disproportionately impacts different blood types, skin colors, and income levels
4) COVID has a mild impact on healthy populations
5) COVID has no impact on some healthy populations / they are innately immune (10%+++ depending on region)
6) COVID is seasonally sensitive, with both transmission and fatalities rising during wintertime
7) COVID seems to burn out after .1% to .3% of a total population has died in larger regions (100K+ population), while local mortality rates can vary from almost 0 to 1%, depending on a region's population pyramid re: factors 2-5 and seasonality in factor 6.
8 ) With geographic spread essentially unlimited and NHEM winter imminently upon us (we are two months out from when falling sunlight begins to become meaningful and pop-wide Vit D production falls off a cliff above 25 degrees N), it is likely COVID is going to spread uncontrollably in the NHEM as transmission and death rates start rising come September. By April and May next year, COVID will be mostly eliminated through either herd immunity, or herd immunity in sync with a vaccine. Fatalities and impact this winter will be most focused on those areas hit least hard during the spring-summertime waves (paradoxically this means China may actually be at greatest overall risk of any country even if their current #s are comically low).
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 10:44:33 PM by bbr2315 »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7635 on: July 13, 2020, 10:51:35 PM »
I'm perfectly willing to see solutions. It's the good people of Florida and Texas that aren't. Do you see a solution to THAT problem? If you do, tell us what it is. If you don't please stop nagging us for one.

Let me try to deobfuscate again.

I have proposed the best solution I know: 

Quote
For the individual, the solution is distance, hand washing, and if needed, masks.
For society, the solution is to test, track, and isolate.

Is that solution tyranny or is it a sensible, science-based solution to a real problem? 

I believe it to be a real solution. The good people of Texas and Florida would be more willing to believe the solution if it is not heralded as political oppression. Nevertheless, the people of Florida and Texas will soon be persuaded to implement the above solutions because overwhelmed hospitals affect everyone.
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7636 on: July 13, 2020, 10:58:57 PM »
I'm perfectly willing to see solutions. It's the good people of Florida and Texas that aren't. Do you see a solution to THAT problem? If you do, tell us what it is. If you don't please stop nagging us for one.
Let me try to deobfuscate again.

I have proposed the best solution I know: 
Quote
For the individual, the solution is distance, hand washing, and if needed, masks.
For society, the solution is to test, track, and isolate.

Is that solution tyranny or is it a sensible, science-based solution to a real problem? 

I believe it to be a real solution. The good people of Texas and Florida would be more willing to believe the solution if it is not heralded as political oppression. Nevertheless, the people of Florida and Texas will soon be persuaded to implement the above solutions because overwhelmed hospitals affect everyone.
I entirely agree with you. I'm willing to bet, though, that your final sentence (especially the word "soon") will be proven false. They're being lied to, and they'd rather believe the lies than the science.

Did you see that clip of the guy on the beach in Florida, saying that Biden and his son went to China, collected the virus, and started it spreading in the USA? He was, as far as I could tell, absolutely serious.

edit to add: I've found the link. I should have said "absolutely serious and totally drunk". Enjoy :)
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/07/grim-reaper-uncovers-new-covidiot
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 12:19:50 AM by greylib »
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7637 on: July 13, 2020, 11:53:53 PM »
bbr,

Your vitamin D theory is untenable in light of Florida, Texas, California.
It is definitely NOT sunlight that slows the spread and not the lack of sunlight that speeds it up. It is the cold air (aircon or winter) and enclosed spaces that speed it up.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7638 on: July 14, 2020, 12:15:53 AM »
bbr,

Your vitamin D theory is untenable in light of Florida, Texas, California.
It is definitely NOT sunlight that slows the spread and not the lack of sunlight that speeds it up. It is the cold air (aircon or winter) and enclosed spaces that speed it up.
How is it untenable? These states have exceedingly low mortality rates. There have been 3K deaths in Florida. The populations in these states are not dying en-masse.

The virus is spreading indoors due to AC. Vitamin D does not prevent spread in and of itself, it does boost innate immunity, which prevents contracting the virus (and also helps fight it off if it is contracted). Consequently the summer wave is exceedingly mild in these locations.

Vitamin D did not stop Spanish Flu, but it was likely the difference between a 1% mortality rate in the summer and a 2.0%+ mortality rate in the fall, with research papers confirming Vit D's outsized impact on mortality by comparing the diets between areas where they are fortified (Bergen) and where they were not (Baltimore).

I would argue the impact of Vit D is most important on mortality not spread, the weather is most important to spread and not mortality.  Consequently AC is an area that has a negligible impact on mortality IF Vit D sufficiency is high. AC becomes a liability if Vit D insufficiency is prevalent. Same as weather.

This also comports with Neven's points. In an area where people are fit, healthy, and have a fortified diet and vacation frequently, they are going to have Vit D both from diet and lifestyle. Even if the disease spreads in these areas, it does so invisibly, and wintertime becomes less relevant given the background factors.

In an area where people are unfit, and unhealthy, and eating unfortified diets, they are going to only have Vit D from being in the sun, if that, and only seasonally. These communities will cope better with spread in summertime and horribly in wintertime. In fact it is these communities where summertime spread could be most beneficial vs dealing with the virus in wintertime in terms of overall lives saved.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7639 on: July 14, 2020, 12:31:24 AM »
bbr,

Your vitamin D theory is untenable in light of Florida, Texas, California.
It is definitely NOT sunlight that slows the spread and not the lack of sunlight that speeds it up. It is the cold air (aircon or winter) and enclosed spaces that speed it up.
I’m not so sure of that. If you look for vitamin D deficit epidemic, there are pretty sunny countries where it is found big percentage of people live with unhealthy low levels due to our modern style of life, and due to the use of high protection sunscreen when we finally decide to stay outdoors . It happens in Spain, why not in Florida or CA.
I knew this pre-covid, just look for all the effects vitamin D deficiency causes, among all, weakened immunological system.
High doses of Vitamin D and C are administered in hospitals for covid patients now as part of a baseline treatment.

What I am not so sure is the seasonality of vitamin D as strong as bbr suggests, it takes weeks or months of supplement to get back to normal levels

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/mi/2017/5719461/
A study of vitamin D on Mexico older adults. About a 90% is found deficient, less than 30 of level, seasonality is clear but to me it looks like most stay under the whole year.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 12:46:51 AM by gandul »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7640 on: July 14, 2020, 12:39:15 AM »
bbr,

Your vitamin D theory is untenable in light of Florida, Texas, California.
It is definitely NOT sunlight that slows the spread and not the lack of sunlight that speeds it up. It is the cold air (aircon or winter) and enclosed spaces that speed it up.
I’m not so sure of that. If you look for vitamin D deficit epidemic, there are pretty sunny countries where it is found big percentage of people live with unhealthy low levels due to our modern style of life, and due to the use of high protection sunscreen when we finally decide to stay outdoors . It happens in Spain, why not in Florida or CA.
I knew this pre-covid, just look for all the effects vitamin D deficiency causes, among all, weakened immunological system.
High doses of Vitamin D and C are administered in hospitals for covid patients now as part of a baseline treatment.

What I am not so sure is the seasonality of vitamin D as strong as bbr suggests, it takes weeks or months of supplement to get back to normal levels
It takes about a month for the drop in sunshine to catch up to the population and it happens between 9/15 and 10/15 above 25N. The same lag is why cases maxed between 3/15-4/15 in most northerly areas (IMO).

By 4/1-4/15 pop-wide vit deficiency recovers, by 10/1-10/15, it becomes prevalent. Seasonal influenza peaks before (4/1-15) and after (10/1-15) both of these dates and so did Spanish Flu.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7641 on: July 14, 2020, 12:42:19 AM »
I'm Melanoma prone, so i'm supposed to stay out of the sun.
I take Vitamin D supplements.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7642 on: July 14, 2020, 01:33:22 AM »
As somebody who lives in Florida, and knows what North Carolinians call people driving (very slowly and in the middle) on mountain dirt roads with Florida license plates, (and from someone's comment up-thread), Floridians need to be less Floridiots.  Image from Florida COVID Action.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7643 on: July 14, 2020, 01:56:01 AM »
I wonder what kind of impact air conditioning would have had on Spanish Flu?

It is actually plausible that air conditioning has been responsible for mitigating and eliminating many viral outbreaks since 1917-1918 (is it coincidental that frequency of global pandemics declined dramatically in 20th century?).

Air conditioning means many novel viruses can keep circulating and SPREADING indoors when they would ordinarily be smushed out and resurge in autumn. This means that instead of dying out during summertime, they spread through populations fortified with Vitamin D via indoors transmission.

Hypothetically, if air conditioning creates dynamics for transmission that mimic wintertime while having the transmission occur at a time of year when mortality is most minimized (i.e., June July and August, the months surrounding peak insolation and heat and following the firmest resumption of pop-wide Vit D levels), it actually becomes a major mitigating factor against overall mortality if the production of antibodies proves to be protective as 99.9% seems to be the case.

If this hypothesis is valid, it will be proven this autumn, if areas that were lacking in the spring-summertime waves are hit particularly hard October+++.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7644 on: July 14, 2020, 07:30:30 AM »
All we know is that the flu and the common cold are seasonal. They hit in the winter and recede during summer.

Now, I read up on this, and noone exactly knows why this is so. There are many competing and maybe mutually not exclusive theories.

One is Vit D. Other is enclosed spaces. Then there is the theory that virii can survive longer in cold air.

I find it very suspect that case numbers blew up in exactly those places (Mexico, Southern US) in June where it gets very hot vs not really going higher in Europe or Canada where it is not so hot. (Spain also has an R of 1,3 lately but not Germany or Sweden!)

Both places get lots of sunshine during summer and people spend time in the sun, but the very hot places have aircon. Also, people stay indoors in these places a lot during summer due to the extreme heat.

So, sunshine is the same but the spread of the virus is vastly different which leaves only one conclusion for me.

Anyway, it will be impossible to test which effect is stronger as I also expect seasonality to kick in during this fall in Europe...

(another note: we know nothing about current mortality so you can't say the Vit D reduces mortality , but we have a good estimate on spread)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 07:57:18 AM by El Cid »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7645 on: July 14, 2020, 07:34:00 AM »
All we know is that the flu, the common cold is seasonal. It hits in the winter and recedes during summer.

Now, I read up on this, and noone exactly knows why this is. There are many competing and maybe mutually not exclusive theories.

One is Vit D. Other is enclosed spaces. Then there is the theory that virii can survive longer in cold air.

I find it very suspect that case numbers blew up in exactly does places (Mexico, Southern US) in June where it gets very hot vs not really going higher in Europe or Canada where it is not so hot.

Both places get lots of sunshine during summer, but the very hot places have aircon. Also, people stay indoors in these places a lot during summer due to the extreme heat.

So, sunshine is the same but the spread of the virus is vastly different which leaves only one conclusion for me.

Anyway, it will be impossible to test which effect is stronger as I also expect seasonality to kick in during this fall in Europe...
My point here is that these viruses may not actually be as seasonal as we believe, and we may be conflating appearance of symptoms with prevalence of overall virus in populations.

Standard cold and flu may cause *symptoms* in wintertime or rather are more likely to produce symptoms between October and April. They may circulate *symptomless* in summertime. So the symptoms are seasonal but the viruses themselves now transmit all year long, and often do so symptomless because aircon now allows these diseases to sustain and thrive in NHEM summer simultaneous to when their impact to the populace is also proportionately lowest.

I wish there was a way to determine this. But I don't think there is re: normal flu and cold. However with COVID we have a testable hypothesis and by New Years we should be able to determine the answer.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7646 on: July 14, 2020, 10:48:00 AM »
World daily reported covid-19 deaths (7 day trailing average) have crept up to nearly 5,000 per day. If maintained, that means 1 million dead by mid-October.

US daily reported covid-19 deaths have crept up to 750 per day, just over 5,000 per week. If maintained, that means 200k dead by mid-October.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7647 on: July 14, 2020, 11:41:37 AM »
It's starting to look like that ideology is a risk factor in getting CoViD-19. Maybe some states should consider some other ideologies.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7648 on: July 14, 2020, 12:27:52 PM »
The COVID-19 official death toll has now exceeded the maximum death toll estimate for the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic, making the current pandemic the most severe within the 21st century.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

- 19 months for the swine flu pandemic
- 7 months for COVID19 (yet)
- Swine flu apparently had 18k confirmed deaths.
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Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7649 on: July 14, 2020, 12:52:28 PM »
The COVID-19 official death toll has now exceeded the maximum death toll estimate for the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic, making the current pandemic the most severe within the 21st century.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

- 19 months for the swine flu pandemic
- 7 months for COVID19 (yet)
- Swine flu apparently had 18k confirmed deaths.
Thanks, it's nice to have some real figures instead of percentages, though the figures are terrible and are getting more terrible.
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