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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 585757 times)

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7650 on: July 14, 2020, 11:41:37 AM »
It's starting to look like that ideology is a risk factor in getting CoViD-19. Maybe some states should consider some other ideologies.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7651 on: July 14, 2020, 12:27:52 PM »
The COVID-19 official death toll has now exceeded the maximum death toll estimate for the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic, making the current pandemic the most severe within the 21st century.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

- 19 months for the swine flu pandemic
- 7 months for COVID19 (yet)
- Swine flu apparently had 18k confirmed deaths.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7652 on: July 14, 2020, 12:52:28 PM »
The COVID-19 official death toll has now exceeded the maximum death toll estimate for the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic, making the current pandemic the most severe within the 21st century.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

- 19 months for the swine flu pandemic
- 7 months for COVID19 (yet)
- Swine flu apparently had 18k confirmed deaths.
Thanks, it's nice to have some real figures instead of percentages, though the figures are terrible and are getting more terrible.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7653 on: July 14, 2020, 01:14:14 PM »
Lots of discussion yesterday about IFR and whether Covid is manufactured hype or the real deal.

The Health Or Economy discussion misses the target because in reality such choice does not exist.

Let's use 330M US population as an example. If Covid runs wild and "everybody" gets it, a 0.5% IFR would cause 1.65 M deaths. That is a huge number, but we know that only 5% of hospitalized patients die. So in addition to deaths there would be 31.35 M patients hospitalized but surviving. Many of those would suffer from long-term or permanent complications.

In addition to hospitalized patients there would be patients sick at home, missing work, some caring for relatives and family members. All in all we are talking about tens of millions of people who are directly affected by the epidemic. A very conservative assumption of 100M Americans missing on average 5 days of work for Covid means 0.5 billion missed days of work.

This would (and does) have massive economic consequences all by itself. Even assuming people don't mind the disease until they or their family members get it, but instead they just go about minding their own business as usual. Eat out, fly on airlines, have cruise vacations etc. Obviously this is not the case, because people will change their behaviour to avoid illness, whether media hype or not.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7654 on: July 14, 2020, 01:37:40 PM »
Great post, Bluice.

Let me just add, in your scenario, if you really let it run wild, the death rate rises tenfold.

Which, in itself, destroys the economy only because a huge amount of people will never buy any whim-wham anymore.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7655 on: July 14, 2020, 01:44:33 PM »
Great post, Bluice.

Let me just add, in your scenario, if you really let it run wild, the death rate rises tenfold.

Which, in itself, destroys the economy only because a huge amount of people will never buy any whim-wham anymore.
Thanks Blum.

I wanted to keep the numbers conservative to prove the point. Otherwise we end up discussing nitty-gritty details and fractions of percentage points.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7656 on: July 14, 2020, 01:57:41 PM »
There aren’t enough hospital beds for 31.35 million patients.
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Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7657 on: July 14, 2020, 02:01:17 PM »
Upper estimate for Swine Flu is 575,000 deaths in 19 months, so here it could be said that CoViD-19 is 19/7 = 2.7 times more deadly.
But let's not forget those millions of asymptomatic cases wandering around, making normal life and socializing pretty impossible for those who want to avoid this one.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7658 on: July 14, 2020, 02:10:28 PM »
It's starting to look like that ideology is a risk factor in getting CoViD-19. Maybe some states should consider some other ideologies.

Be republican in April and May and be democrat in June and after - that will really reduce your risk. lol  :P

I guess the timing difference is to be expected - liberal wealthy city dwellers travel more so it arrives in quantity there first.

I guess you are saying the republican peak is going to be higher. If it levels out soon then there isn't much in it but if the republican rise continues for some time then I would suggest it may be an indicator of risks (maybe including strong libertarian views among the population) rather than a risk factor in itself.


Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7659 on: July 14, 2020, 02:25:05 PM »
It's starting to look like that ideology is a risk factor in getting CoViD-19. Maybe some states should consider some other ideologies.

Be republican in April and May and be democrat in June and after - that will really reduce your risk. lol  :P

I guess the timing difference is to be expected - liberal wealthy city dwellers travel more so it arrives in quantity there first.

I guess you are saying the republican peak is going to be higher. If it levels out soon then there isn't much in it but if the republican rise continues for some time then I would suggest it may be an indicator of risks (maybe including strong libertarian views among the population) rather than a risk factor in itself.
It would be nice to have a more detailed  analysis of this, should the doctors include the political party affiliation among their questions when interviewing patients? Do sick people lie more?  ;) ;D Republicans probably thought they are so alone they can't get the disease. At least the chart shows that the Trump supporting states want to experience the disease first hand and won't learn from experiences from elsewhere.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 02:53:44 PM by Pmt111500 »

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7660 on: July 14, 2020, 02:46:02 PM »
Lots of discussion yesterday about IFR and whether Covid is manufactured hype or the real deal.

The Health Or Economy discussion misses the target because in reality such choice does not exist.

Let's use 330M US population as an example. If Covid runs wild and "everybody" gets it, a 0.5% IFR would cause 1.65 M deaths. That is a huge number, but we know that only 5% of hospitalized patients die. So in addition to deaths there would be 31.35 M patients hospitalized but surviving. Many of those would suffer from long-term or permanent complications.

In addition to hospitalized patients there would be patients sick at home, missing work, some caring for relatives and family members. All in all we are talking about tens of millions of people who are directly affected by the epidemic. A very conservative assumption of 100M Americans missing on average 5 days of work for Covid means 0.5 billion missed days of work.

This would (and does) have massive economic consequences all by itself. Even assuming people don't mind the disease until they or their family members get it, but instead they just go about minding their own business as usual. Eat out, fly on airlines, have cruise vacations etc. Obviously this is not the case, because people will change their behaviour to avoid illness, whether media hype or not.

Exactly. I would only add that this sort of "approach" is morally repugnant with respect to health care workers.  The rate of transmission must be kept below the threshold that overwhelms hospitals. We cannot subject health care workers to dangerous, demoralizing, exhausting conditions. It is immoral.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7661 on: July 14, 2020, 03:59:25 PM »
The COVID-19 official death toll has now exceeded the maximum death toll estimate for the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic, making the current pandemic the most severe within the 21st century.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

- 19 months for the swine flu pandemic
- 7 months for COVID19 (yet)
- Swine flu apparently had 18k confirmed deaths.

swine flu 18,449 CONFIRMED deaths in 19 months
Covid 19  576,496 worldwide death, CONFIRMED in 7 months.

The number that is surpassed today is the ceiling of the WHO/CDC estimate of the number of deaths.
 
After the trailers and mass graves begin you can't expect an accurate death count. You should expect a severe undercount.

Quote
That number
18,449 (lab-confirmed deaths reported to WHO;[7] flu patients were generally not tested)[8]
284,000 (range 151,700–575,400; CDC and WHO estimate)


Let's not go "herd immunity" route. Let's eradicate this thing. We can do it. Along the way, the IFR will become so low that it won't be a problem, like in Asia and Europe right now.

Surely we have to remain vigilant until a vaccine/treatment gets here, but it is better than the alternative.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7662 on: July 14, 2020, 04:41:25 PM »
Quote

swine flu 18,449 CONFIRMED deaths in 19 months
Covid 19  576,496 worldwide death, CONFIRMED in 7 months.

With these numbers, CoViD-19 would be ~85 times more deadly. Ah well. Let the numbers game begin again.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7663 on: July 14, 2020, 04:46:14 PM »
Harris County Texas Releases Emergency Broadcast Alert Urging People To Stay Home As COVID-19 Continues To Spread

Houston metro's Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo released an emergency broadcast urging people to stay home in response to the COVID-19 crisis, as the county remains at its highest alert level amid the pandemic.

A script of the message, broadcast by Houston Public Media and other local broadcasters in both Spanish and English, reads:

Quote
... STAY HOME. Harris County's COVID-19 threat remains at LEVEL 1 (RED) SEVERE until further notice. The virus is spreading rapidly across Harris County and local hospitals are reaching capacity. Protect yourself and your family by staying at home except for essential activities, wear required face covering, and cancel gatherings. Visit readyharris.org for updates.

The message does not come with additional enforcement, and Hidalgo was not issuing a new county order as of Monday, according to a spokesperson.

Hidalgo has asked the governor to allow enforcement power to local county orders, but the county has yet to receive clarification on whether it could enforce such a stay-at-home order at this time.

... "We have to stop pretending that filling up our hospitals is a morally appropriate or sound public health approach to the COVID-19 pandemic,” read a statement from Hidalgo.

Over the last week, the greater Houston area averaged 1,776 cases per day, which is more than four times the number during the peak in April, according to the Texas Medical Center. ICU bed configuration and staffing was at full “Phase 1” capacity as of Sunday, and the medical center has had to add additional intensive care capacity to handle the overflow.

---------------------------------------

Houston Public Health System CEO Says Coronavirus Situation Is "Dire"
https://www.axios.com/houston-hospitals-coronavirus-situation-dire-c9a5a7dd-8de7-44ff-9280-17b0f21f90bf.html

The big picture: Harris Health System CEO and President Dr. Esmail Porsa said the region is seeing numbers related to the spread of the virus that are "disproportionately higher than anything we have experienced in the past." He noted that Lyndon B. Johnson Hospital's ICU is at 113% capacity, and 75% of its beds are coronavirus patients.

Why it matters: New York hospitals never became so overwhelmed that patients were abandoned in hallways, but the situation became dire after lockdowns were in place, and became a matter of riding out the storm, writes Axios' Caitlin Owens.

- In Texas and elsewhere, people remain free to move around and thus keep spreading the virus.

----------------------------------

An Increase In People Dying at Home Suggests Coronavirus Deaths in Houston May Be Higher Than Reported
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/08/houston-coronavirus-deaths-number/

As coronavirus cases surge, inundating hospitals and leading to testing shortages, a rapidly growing number of Houston-area residents are dying at home, according to an NBC News and ProPublica review of Houston Fire Department data. An increasing number of these at-home deaths have been confirmed to be the result of COVID-19, Harris County medical examiner data shows.

The previously unreported jump in people dying at home is the latest indicator of a mounting crisis in a region beset by one of the nation’s worst and fastest-growing coronavirus outbreaks. On Tuesday, a record 3,851 people were hospitalized for the coronavirus in the Houston region, exceeding normal intensive care capacity and sending some hospitals scrambling to find additional staff and space.

Dead on arrival calls in Houston

Houston has seen a spike in the number of people dying of cardiac arrest before paramedics can reach them. (>100/d)

The uptick in the number of people dying before they can even reach a hospital in Houston draws parallels to what happened in New York City in March and April, when there was a spike in the number of times firefighters responded to medical calls, only to discover that the person in need of help had already died. These increases also echo those reported during outbreaks in Detroit and Boston, when the number of people dying at home jumped as coronavirus cases surged.

Many people who die at home are not tested for COVID-19, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. In New York City, for example, only 16% of the 11,475 at-home deaths between February and June have been attributed to COVID-19, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

------------------------------

From Houston to Miami, Hospitals Running Short of Remdesivir for Covid-19 Patients
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/10/hospitals-running-short-of-remdesivir-for-covid19-patients/

... In June, as Texas businesses welcomed customers and coronavirus cases surged, Houston Methodist, the hospital where pharmacist Katherine Perez works, restricted the medication to only those patients who weren’t yet on ventilators, in the hope of making the supply last longer.

Even with those narrowed criteria — and with enough vials to treat 200 more patients delivered last weekend — there still isn’t enough. Covid-19 inpatients jumped from around 200 in May to over 700 in July, and the flow of the drug hasn’t kept up. “We are on the verge of running out, maybe today, maybe tomorrow,” the infectious disease pharmacist said on Thursday afternoon.

Other hot spot states are feeling such shortages, too. That means clinicians are temporarily left to tackle some of the highest caseloads in the country without one of the few tools proven to work against the disease. It’s the latest in a long string of issues plaguing the U.S. government’s distribution of this drug — and one that physicians predicted back in May.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 05:08:48 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7664 on: July 14, 2020, 05:51:36 PM »
Interesting aspect about the US south, and Texas is that population density is not particularly high compared to other regions.   

The obvious unwillingness of US citizens to practice basic social distancing and face mask wearing is clearly a direct cause of this spike in cases.

My previous post still rings through - our way of life is over.  Without face masks, the virus spreads even in relatively sparse population density regions. 

We'll just always wear masks for the rest of our existence?  Sounds like a bleak and dystopian future.


Jacobus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7665 on: July 14, 2020, 06:28:20 PM »
Interesting aspect about the US south, and Texas is that population density is not particularly high compared to other regions.   

The obvious unwillingness of US citizens to practice basic social distancing and face mask wearing is clearly a direct cause of this spike in cases.

My previous post still rings through - our way of life is over.  Without face masks, the virus spreads even in relatively sparse population density regions. 

We'll just always wear masks for the rest of our existence?  Sounds like a bleak and dystopian future.
Unless you're among the privileged the present is dystopian enough (with or without Covid-19).

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7666 on: July 14, 2020, 06:30:00 PM »
Lots of discussion yesterday about IFR and whether Covid is manufactured hype or the real deal.

The Health Or Economy discussion misses the target because in reality such choice does not exist.

Let's use 330M US population as an example. If Covid runs wild and "everybody" gets it, a 0.5% IFR would cause 1.65 M deaths. That is a huge number, but we know that only 5% of hospitalized patients die. So in addition to deaths there would be 31.35 M patients hospitalized but surviving. Many of those would suffer from long-term or permanent complications.

In addition to hospitalized patients there would be patients sick at home, missing work, some caring for relatives and family members. All in all we are talking about tens of millions of people who are directly affected by the epidemic. A very conservative assumption of 100M Americans missing on average 5 days of work for Covid means 0.5 billion missed days of work.

This would (and does) have massive economic consequences all by itself. Even assuming people don't mind the disease until they or their family members get it, but instead they just go about minding their own business as usual. Eat out, fly on airlines, have cruise vacations etc. Obviously this is not the case, because people will change their behaviour to avoid illness, whether media hype or not.
The hospitalization rate was only 2X the IFR in NYC / ~2% of infected which means even if 100% of the US were infected which is impossible, it would be 6 million hospitalizations, not 31.35M.

In reality the total population infected is likely to stop rising when it hits 40-45% which means we are probably in for a max of 2-3 million total hospitalizations, which is still a huge number, but it is literally an order of magnitude less than your figure. The death toll is likely to be somewhere between 500K and 1.2M, by this time next year in the US, IMO, which means we have 350K-1.05M  remaining (or are 13-30% of the way to herd immunity).

One additional major positive development, again IMO, is the age of the populations now being infected en-masse in CA, FL, TX, etc. This is likely to prove prophylactic to the susceptible populations as long as they are not infected in the primary wave. Antibodies in the people who have the most contact with others (which the virus literally selects for) actually dramatically bring down the required % of the population that must be infected for herd immunity, perhaps this is why we see Spanish Flu max around 40-45% apparent infection rate between its three main waves as well.

Interesting aspect about the US south, and Texas is that population density is not particularly high compared to other regions.   

The obvious unwillingness of US citizens to practice basic social distancing and face mask wearing is clearly a direct cause of this spike in cases.


My previous post still rings through - our way of life is over.  Without face masks, the virus spreads even in relatively sparse population density regions. 

We'll just always wear masks for the rest of our existence?  Sounds like a bleak and dystopian future.
I think this assertion is unfair, I think the bashing of the US here is ridiculous, I think the US falls into the same situation as nations like India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, all of which also have exploding cases in spite of policies favoring social distancing etc.

The hubris in this thread directed towards America is beyond insane. It is the same way Americans said "Oh, the people in NYC, they are New Yorkers -- they're not social distancing!!!"

Just you wait until people are dying en-masse in Europe in numbers above and beyond what we have seen in the US during the doubly-lethal autumnal wave and then suddenly the same creeping horror being realized by the rest of the US where AC use is heavy will unfortunately occur in Europe / etc as well. Schadenfreude is the last thing I am implying here, I am saying that people say "we are superior and this is not going to happen here because those people are idiots," and then it turns out they are idiots too.

(LOOK AT MELBOURNE).

How much suffering in lockdowns is justified when the scenario now being realized in Argentina and Australia and Chile and South Africa is happening in all the places that will by that point (September, when it explodes again) have been in neutral (or reverse) since MARCH? And then they will continue for another six months? Ummmmmmmm ok
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 06:42:01 PM by bbr2315 »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7667 on: July 14, 2020, 06:32:32 PM »
And so it begins...

Texas hospitals are running out of drugs, beds, ventilators and even staff

Link >> https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/14/texas-hospitals-coronavirus/

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7668 on: July 14, 2020, 06:42:07 PM »
But how? So much to learn still...

57 sailors in Argentina get coronavirus after weeks at sea, despite quarantine

Quote
The Echizen Maru fishing trawler returned to port in Ushuaia after crew members began exhibiting symptoms typical of Covid-19. They had all undergone 14 days of mandatory quarantine and tested negative before the ship departed.

Link >> https://www.scmp.com/news/world/americas/article/3093102/57-sailors-argentina-get-coronavirus-after-weeks-sea-despite

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7669 on: July 14, 2020, 07:04:20 PM »

I think this assertion is unfair, I think the bashing of the US here is ridiculous, I think the US falls into the same situation as nations like India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, all of which also have exploding cases in spite of policies favoring social distancing etc.


My post hardly bashed the US - we all know that there's an active anti-mask movement in the uS, which is unironically in the worst affected states, which also opened quickly.

The US is one of the few countries outside of Europe that is capable of performing tests at this magnitude, which accounts for such high numbers.

Of all the countries, China deserves the most bashing for literally welding its citizens into apartment complexes to forcibly quarantine them in Wuhan.  There's multitudes of videos of apartment complexes being barred shut, welded shut, etc.,  to say this is more truth than fiction.

We have no way of knowing just how many died in China, but one can rest assured it's obviously higher than the US death toll.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7670 on: July 14, 2020, 07:11:58 PM »
On the fishermen, There were stories from Helsinki where the so called mandatory quarantine included shopping around and socializing on the still open cafes before everything was shut down.

On wearing masks everywhere, only indoors and in crowds outside... So the way of life is changed. Personally, used gloves when shopping. For two months met with about 10 people not counting the cashiers and other customers in the local shop trying to avoid other customers, didn't consider the situation dangerous enough to use a mask, nodding approvingly to those who wore one. . Some people have more important things to lose if they get sick than me...

Last weekend went to a party of 50, something totally unthinkable two months back.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 07:24:51 PM by Pmt111500 »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7671 on: July 14, 2020, 07:40:08 PM »

I think the bashing of the US here is ridiculous,

(LOOK AT MELBOURNE).
So I did... an unfortunate series of events....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-53259356
Coronavirus: Why has Melbourne's outbreak worsened?
Quote
There have been failures in hotel quarantine
Premier Daniel Andrews has pinpointed the origin of many infections to workers overseeing hotel quarantines breaking the rules. More than 20,000 travellers have gone through 14-day quarantine in the state.

Since March, Australia has put returning travellers into government-paid quarantine in hotels
A report which traced Covid-19's mutation in Victoria found that hotel staff cases were the "ancestors" of ones found later in suburban homes.

So how did the virus spread? Allegations of blame have been levelled at private security firms contracted to operate the state's quarantine. Neighbouring New South Wales took a different approach - using the police force.

Victoria has faced accusations of systemic failures such as guards being improperly trained or not given enough PPE.

Mr Andrews has also described cases of illegal socialising between staff, listing examples of workers sharing a cigarette lighter or car-pooling. Local media also reported claims of sex between guards and quarantined travellers.

The government has ordered a judicial inquiry into their quarantine operation and fired the contractors.

Unlike in many states, the virus had been 'seeded'
In early May - during Australia's lockdown - authorities expressed concern about a virus cluster among workers at an abattoir in Melbourne's west.

About 111 cases were eventually linked to the site, which had been the subject of a rapid trace-and-track response from authorities. Lockdown restrictions eased a month later, allowing people to again visit friends and family, and enjoy other freedoms such as eating out at restaurants.

But experts believe that secondary cases from that cluster - and possibly others - were still festering undetected in the community.

"It seeded the population… and there were enough cases out there when the precautions relaxed," Prof John Matthews from the University of Melbourne tells the BBC.

Some became complacent as freedoms returned
With the relaxation of lockdown and Australia's apparent success, the public also became less vigilant, experts say.

Officials were still exhorting social distancing, but group limits were expanded. Large family groups reconnected and some cases stemmed from people with mild symptoms attending those gatherings, authorities said.

"Once the feeling got around that it was over - when it really wasn't - Victoria copped it," says Prof Matthews.

Allegations of poor messaging to non-English-speaking communities
The locked-down "hotspots" in Melbourne's north and west are also home to large migrant communities.

Leaders from those areas have argued that communication of public health orders was insufficient for non-English speakers, and this was exacerbated as restrictions rapidly changed throughout May.

Given Melbourne's significantly multicultural make-up - a language other than English is spoken in almost 35% of households - this was a notable oversight, critics said.

Researchers have also found that translations were inadequate, materials weren't being circulated, and there were even allegations of government agencies falsifying communications.

It's also just 'bad luck', experts say
Authorities have always emphasised that such outbreaks would be inevitable once Australia's lockdown lifted. In recent weeks, they've said the situation in Victoria could have happened anywhere.

So why Melbourne and not Sydney, for instance - Australia's other comparably sized city? Sydney has Australia's busiest airport and exited lockdown two weeks before Melbourne. It also, broadly, had looser lockdown measures.

Health officials have said that much of it is probably a matter of "bad luck".


But much of the whole-picture evidence remains circumstantial, says Prof Mathews, who adds that Victorians have been unfortunate to experience both the meatworks and quarantine issues.

Just goes to show that even if you try to get it right it can go badly wrong.

But when the White House and some State Governors so recklessly & actively encourage reckless behaviour, the outcome will possibly be a magnitude worse.
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crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7672 on: July 14, 2020, 08:13:01 PM »

We have no way of knowing just how many died in China, but one can rest assured it's obviously higher than the US death toll.

Do you honestly believe that?

They have completely hoodwinked WHO
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Quote
In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most
ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. The strategy
that underpinned this containment effort was initially a national approach that
promoted universal temperature monitoring, masking, and hand washing. However,
as the outbreak evolved, and knowledge was gained, a science and risk-based
approach was taken to tailor implementation. Specific containment measures were
adjusted to the provincial, county and even community context, the capacity of the
setting, and the nature of novel coronavirus transmission there.

Quote
Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment
measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people
to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is
reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most
vulnerable populations and communities. Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own
areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care
workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

and so on.

The virus kept on spreading leading to increased hospital care demand as well as deaths and nobody noticed nor any reports of a worsening situation leaking out?

Obviously the real level is higher than the official confirmed cases numbers but I am thinking that is the case everywhere. While some places may well massage the numbers more than others, to massage them to the extent needed to believe China has had more virus deaths than US without information leaking out would be very difficult if not impossible. (4634 China confirmed deaths vs US 26,965 confirmed deaths so far, a factor of 5.8)

Other news like locking down a (/some?) town(s) on Russian border and a partial quarantine for people travelling to Beijing also doesn't seem to me to suggest China has a widespread problem.

The obvious is that lockdowns, mask wearing, hygiene measures can reduce the virus to very low prevalence levels and often the obvious is correct and no conspiracy theory is needed.

Whether governments can and will impose sufficient measures for long enough to prevent resurgence of the virus seems a much more open question. That is more about future deaths than past deaths.

Perhaps accepting that San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, France, and USA have done badly is uncomfortable? I must admit that list is remarkably European dominated but lots of wealthy travelers meaning early first waves could still be a factor and we will see other poorer regions have later first waves.

Some "massaging" is going on, eg Tanzania reported 509 cases then stopped reporting. I think that is wrong by a factor of much more than 5.8. But China worse than US for deaths, that seems unlikely to me.


El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7673 on: July 14, 2020, 08:16:50 PM »
Great post, Bluice.

Let me just add, in your scenario, if you really let it run wild, the death rate rises tenfold.

WOW. That is pretty baseless, but fortunately bbr beat me to it with real facts.

Actually, hospitals can't do much for you, they give you oxygen and infusion and possibly antibiotics for secondary infections. 25-50% of those who end up in hospitals die. So even "if you let it run wild" mortality would be at most twice as big as with care since many who go to hospitals would die anyway whatever you do and many would survive anyway even if they stayed at home. 

The US has cca 1 mln hospital beds. At worst "if you let it run wild" you would have 200 mln infected, 4-6 mln in hospitals (during 3-6 months), so only 1-2 mln at the same time. That is still unmanagable and undesirable though.

All politicians screwed up: Europe just like the US (just look at all the open cinemas, shopping centers, theatres, concerts, holidaymakers, etc etc in Europe, it is complete madness). Summer is our only saviour. This thing will most certainly come back with a vengeance in autumn, or sooner

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7674 on: July 14, 2020, 09:00:49 PM »

Actually, hospitals can't do much for you, they give you oxygen and infusion and possibly antibiotics for secondary infections. 25-50% of those who end up in hospitals die.

Data from Britain disagrees with you.

Quote
Around the height of the outbreak, on 8 April, there were 15,468 people in hospital in England with coronavirus of whom 899 died (6%).

By 21 June there were 2,698 hospitalised coronavirus patients, 30 of whom died (1%), according to the most recent data compiled University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine.

Hospital case fatality is a measure used since the beginning of the outbreak, providing consistent figures and enabling researchers to look for trends.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53192532

But now we are once again arguing about percentage points. I don't want get there.

My point was, that the political discussion about Health or Economy is baseless. The virus, not lockdowns, are wrecking the economy. Sweden and her laissez-faire strategy is a case in point. It did not save Swedish economy.

The US has cca 1 mln hospital beds. At worst "if you let it run wild" you would have 200 mln infected, 4-6 mln in hospitals (during 3-6 months), so only 1-2 mln at the same time. That is still unmanagable and undesirable though.

All politicians screwed up: Europe just like the US (just look at all the open cinemas, shopping centers, theatres, concerts, holidaymakers, etc etc in Europe, it is complete madness). Summer is our only saviour. This thing will most certainly come back with a vengeance in autumn, or sooner
No, not all politicians screwed up. Some certainly did. Trump and his minions did big time, turning an epidemic into politics. Without any US bashing one does wonder how the hell there were armed demonstrators demanding to end lockdowns?!?

But I have to ask, what exactly do you expect politicians to do? Have magical god-like powers to cure disease and see the future? Close everything until nobody gets ill or dies?

People need to remember we are in the midst of a pandemic. Treating it is a balancing act with only bad options.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7675 on: July 14, 2020, 10:40:15 PM »
Actually, hospitals can't do much for you, they give you oxygen and infusion and possibly antibiotics for secondary infections. 25-50% of those who end up in hospitals die.

You are very wrong about this. Oxygen and antibiotics for secondary infections are both lifesavers. If hospitals are overwhelmed the real IFR climbs significantly.  However, reporting is also overwhelmed so the short term IFR looks like it grows sideways as trailers and incinerators fill.

Hypoxia leads to death. Sleep alone could kill a hypoxic patient without the supplement of oxygen.

 If hospital services become overwhelmed you should expect a significant uptick in IFR for several reasons:

1. Patients that just needed oxygen supplementation to buy their system time to win the infection will not get it. A fraction of them will pass when they could have survived.

2. Patients with secondary infections will not get hospital-grade antibiotics

3. Infection will be rampant everywhere. Being infected with multiple strains, through multiple routes, and at higher doses becomes more common.

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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7676 on: July 14, 2020, 11:01:48 PM »
Just to cheer you all up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148
Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse than first'
The UK could see about 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter, scientists say.
Quote

Asked to model a "reasonable" worst-case scenario, they suggest a range between 24,500 and 251,000 of virus-related deaths in hospitals alone, peaking in January and February.

To date, there have been 44,830 official deaths in the UK, but this has slowed with 1,100 in July.

The estimate does not take into account any lockdowns, treatments or vaccines.

And the scientists say: "The risk... could be reduced if we take action immediately".

The report, requested by the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, stresses there is still a high degree of uncertainty over how the coronavirus pandemic will play out this winter.

But research suggests the virus can survive longer in colder conditions and is more likely to spread when people spend more time indoors.

And experts are concerned the NHS will be under extreme pressure, not just from a resurgence of coronavirus but also from seasonal flu and a backlog of regular, non-coronavirus workload.

Prof Stephen Holgate, a respiratory specialist from University Hospital Southampton NHS Trust, who chaired the report, said: "This is not a prediction - but it is a possibility.

"The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter. But the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately."

With relatively low numbers of coronavirus cases at the moment, "this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us", he added.

Less pessimistic winter scenarios are also possible, with coronavirus deaths in the thousands.

Co-author Prof Dame Anne Johnson, from the Academy of Medical Sciences, said: "Faced with these potential challenges, and after an already tough year, it would be easy to feel hopeless and powerless. But this report shows that we can act now to change things for the better."

It recommends:
- increasing capacity of the test-and-trace programme, to cope with the overlapping symptoms of coronavirus, flu and other winter infections
- getting more people vaccinated against flu
- ensuring hospitals and care homes have enough personal protective equipment (PPE)
- creating coronavirus-free zones in hospitals and care homes, to halt infections
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Yuha

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7677 on: July 14, 2020, 11:36:33 PM »
To put the Melbourne flare up in context:
  • Melbourne, population 5 million, about 200 new cases per day
  • NYC, population 8.4 million, about 300 new cases per day in recent weeks
  • Arizona, population 7.3 million, about 3,500 new cases day
My guess is it won't get much worse in Melbourne because of the lockdown (in effect for a week now) and extensive contact tracing.

Here's some details about the lockdown

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/13/coronavirus-melbourne-stage-3-lockdown-rules-restrictions-victoria-metropolitan-metro-mitchell-shire-explained-covid-19-what-you-need-to-know

and contact tracing:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/14/melbourne-lockdown-key-to-getting-covid-19-contact-tracing-to-manageable-level-expert-says

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7678 on: July 15, 2020, 12:18:46 AM »
In the US, covid is killing a far larger percentage of Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans than of Whites.

Is the reason genetic or socio-economic? I'm asking out of curiosity.

Quote
Are those groups also guilty of excessive fear for this virus?

No, the reason could simply be that they are exploited more by a system that seeks to profit off of people's health. As minorities are structurally kept in a position of unequal opportunities, their health is probably less than that of most Whites. And then, when a virus comes along, even if it's similar to influenza...

The problem is the system, not the virus.

...

Neven, while lying low, don't eat chicken from the US.
US chicken business is part of a system that helps fund the Kochs and the Trumps.

"At the Oasis truck stop, the Mountaire employee expressed disgust that, in the middle of a pandemic, she might be replaced by someone paid even worse—a worker who had likely come from a foreign land to seek opportunity. “I’m telling you, Donald Trump wants to make this a Third World country,” she said. “Treat them like slave dogs. They come to the Land of the Free—but, honey, it isn’t free anymore.” "

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/07/20/how-trump-is-helping-tycoons-exploit-the-pandemic

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7679 on: July 15, 2020, 01:16:14 AM »

We have no way of knowing just how many died in China, but one can rest assured it's obviously higher than the US death toll.

I would not be assured of that. But China is one of the very few countries that does not seem to publish any statistics about deaths or excess deaths.

Wuhan had similar problems as Bergamo and New York with burying the fatalities.

Here is a recent preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116012v2

Quote
Cremation based estimates suggest significant under- and delayed reporting of COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and China

The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7680 on: July 15, 2020, 01:23:45 AM »


------------------------------------



------------------------------------

Florida Sets Coronavirus Death Record, Hours After Gov. DeSantis Said State Had ‘Stabilized’
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/14/florida-sets-coronavirus-death-record-hours-after-gov-desantis-said-state-had-stabilized/amp/

Florida set a new record for coronavirus deaths Tuesday, one of several metrics that show the state’s coronavirus crisis is still getting worse, even as Gov. Ron DeSantis claimed at a news conference Monday afternoon that the state’s situation had “stabilized.”

Florida reported 132 deaths Tuesday, a massive increase from the 35 new deaths the state added on Monday and breaking the old daily record of 120, set on July 9.

The key metric DeSantis said showed the state had “stabilized,” which is the rate of tests coming back positive, also took a big jump in the wrong direction.

On Tuesday, the positivity rate rose back above 15%, reversing what had been a trend of decline, and far above Monday’s rate, which was below 11.5%.

-------------------------------

4 More States Added to NY's Coronavirus Quarantine List
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-states-added-ny-coronavirus-quarantine.html

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo added four more states to New York's quarantine list on Tuesday as he sought to contain the spread of COVID-19 from regions of the country where infection rates are growing.

The addition of Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin means that travelers from 22 states will be required to quarantine for 14 days upon entering New York.

Cuomo announced Monday that out-of-state travelers arriving in New York airports from the list of states face a $2,000 fine and a mandatory quarantine order for failing to fill out personal information on a tracing form that New York will use to help make sure individuals are quarantine.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7681 on: July 15, 2020, 08:49:17 AM »
OK,

so I downloaded the UK data from here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-on-coronavirus-26-june-2020

All in all, 122 thousand people were hospitalized. 43 thousand died.

So, you can possibly argue that without hospitals, mortality would be triple of the current one (although that would still be a hard stretch as surely not everyone would die without "medication", but let's say so), but you can definitely not argue that "the death rate rises tenfold". Just like I said, 25-50% who end up in hospital, die.

bluice,

What do I expect politicians to do?

Easy: Make people wear masks in closed spaces and do not allow mass (10+ people) events. Quite simple. No magic needed.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7682 on: July 15, 2020, 08:55:45 AM »
One more thing: look at vox's US state coronavirus outbreaks per population!

Almost exclusively, you find hot, southern states at the top (lots of new cases) and cooler, northern states at the bottom. So I still say it is not Vit D but airconditioning (icy air) that does does something with your respiratory system that make you more susceptible. Or being in enclosed spaces.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7683 on: July 15, 2020, 10:03:28 AM »
Quote
All in all, 122 thousand people were hospitalized. 43 thousand died.

The data I download from your link says 43,000 people died in all settings, not hospitals. I think you need to double-check. The following source says 29,105. That's almost a 5 fold increase.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/


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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7684 on: July 15, 2020, 10:27:03 AM »
One more thing: look at vox's US state coronavirus outbreaks per population!

Almost exclusively, you find hot, southern states at the top (lots of new cases) and cooler, northern states at the bottom.

It's almost exclusively red. The expected outcome of obscurantism and the abandonment of scientific thinking. Plague.

Quote
What do I expect politicians to do?

Easy: Make people wear masks in closed spaces and do not allow mass (10+ people) events. Quite simple. No magic needed.

That is not enough. 

Distance is the number 1 ally. Distance in space as well as time.

Then, handwashing multiplies the effectiveness of mask and time after time after time has been proven as the best source of epidemic control. Hand washing.

Then masks are the last line of defense. If the first two are breached the mask protects you at a knowable failure rate depending on the material and fit.

That's what people must do.

What politicians must do is test, track, and isolate.

And researchers better get those vaccines and antivirals going, because winter in the most populated hemisphere is coming.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7685 on: July 15, 2020, 10:34:45 AM »
Ok, you are right Archimid, some of those people died before they could be taken to hospital (I guess mostly elderly in care homes).

Still, the equation holds. 122 k were taken to hospital. If all of them would have died without proper care - I very seriously doubt that - then we would have 122 k dead plus the 14 k dead (who died before taken to hospital). That is a grand total of 136 k dead. That is the absolute maximum that would have died without care.  That is 136/43 = 3,16 times as many as died.

We can safely say that without care at most three times as many would die (but I bet is is "just" two times).

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7686 on: July 15, 2020, 10:50:29 AM »
Hot vs cold or blue vs red? What causes viral spread? politics or climate?

I calculated average case numbers (using the chart vox provided) for the red AND cold states. Did the same for Blue AND hot. Used this map:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-governors-party-control-now-near-parity/

results here:

Red and cold: ID, WY, ND , NE, IA, VT, NH, MA    = 10

Blue and hot: CA, NV, NM, LA, NC   = 24

Southerly democratic governed states do much worse than northerly, republican governed ones!

It is NOT politics, it is the climate. It is aircon. It is enclosed spaces.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7687 on: July 15, 2020, 10:51:54 AM »
Ok, you are right Archimid, some of those people died before they could be taken to hospital (I guess mostly elderly in care homes).

I think we are trying to ascertain hospital efficiency and the consequences of lack of hospital would have on the IFR. For that, we need admissions and deaths in hospitals not admissions and deaths in general.


Quote
We can safely say that without care at most three times as many would die (but I bet is is "just" two times).

I can agree with that. the fatality rate of C19 will at least double as hospital services are overwhelmed. But what about all other hospital services? What happens to cancer patients and surgeries? What happens to hear conditions independent of C19? Births?

Don't you think that overwhelmed medical services may negatively impact the rest of the causes of death?
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7688 on: July 15, 2020, 11:25:08 AM »
Hot vs cold or blue vs red? What causes viral spread? politics or climate?

I calculated average case numbers (using the chart vox provided) for the red AND cold states. Did the same for Blue AND hot. Used this map:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-governors-party-control-now-near-parity/

Please read the key points in the article.

From your link:

Quote
— Following the 2019 elections, Republicans retain a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships.

— But that’s a big shift from mid-2017, when Democrats held just 15.

— Gubernatorial races are likelier to defy federal partisanship than House and Senate races.

Current governors might be about the worst metric to determine party affiliation of a state.

An interesting exercise I admit, but your source is poor.


Quote
results here:

Red and cold: ID, WY, ND , NE, IA, VT, NH, MA    = 10

Blue and hot: CA, NV, NM, LA, NC   = 24

Southerly democratic governed states do much worse than northerly, republican governed ones![/quote]

There are two parts of the solutions:

Population: Distance, hand washing, masks

Governance: Test, track, isolate

A governor doing an excellent task at test/track/isolate might be sabotaged by a population doing a poor job at distance/handwash/masks and viceversa. Only with both parts simultaneously working with a unity of purpose the infection goes away, as proven by civilized countries and some US states.


Quote
It is NOT politics, it is the climate. It is aircon. It is enclosed spaces.

It is both. Politics is the way we make collective decisions and the collective decisions we make are subject to the environment.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7689 on: July 15, 2020, 11:31:46 AM »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7690 on: July 15, 2020, 01:34:55 PM »
Archimid,

I agree that politics does play a part. I just wanted to show that climate truly matters and my original hypotheses, ie.  for whatever reason (being enclosed and/or aircon generated cold air) southern states  - irrespective of party affiliation -  perform worse than more northerly states with more "free air" + no/less aircon. And I think I proved that. We could look at state senate affiliations as well but the results will not be strikingly different. And I think the governor is important as he has powers to make the situation much worse or much better

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7691 on: July 15, 2020, 02:12:39 PM »
The viability of the virus is highly temperature/humidity/light dependant.

Remember what we are talking about here. This is literally a strand of rna covered by an invisibly thin layer of lipids. Scientist and lab workers have to use very sophisticated and precise techniques to replicate these outside of a living organism.

For laboratory purpuses keeping code viable ("the virus alive") is the actual challenge. How do laboratories preserve viruses? For many, maybe most pathogens that can affect humans, the way to preserve the code is by freezing. If instead of preserving the virus labs want to replicate the virus, that usually involves incubation at appropiate temperatures.  Many human pathogens replicate very well at, lo and behold,  37C.

So temperature is a huge factor on the behavior of the virus. Temperature is also a huge factor on the behavior of humans.  Temperature will most decively be a factor in the epidemiology of this virus.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7692 on: July 15, 2020, 02:17:17 PM »
And Trump cultist are as gulity as Trump for not masking and downplaying the disease.

I could understand after China and Iran. But after Italy, Spain, UK and NY, there is no excuse.

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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7693 on: July 15, 2020, 02:29:44 PM »
Here is a recent preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116012v2

That one has been debunked a lot, it's fake news.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sulfur-coronavirus-cremations/

Your Snopes thing is from February. The preprint was posted June 16.

The article does not mention sulfur emissions. Their main data source is observed working hours of the crematoria, and their list of references does not mention satellite data.

There are countries where many deaths don't get recorded. But China is a state with a functioning bureaucracy and records. Yet it is one of few organized countries that will not publish mortality data. (We have such data for Ecuador, Peru, South-Africa, etc.) 

It is a reason for me not to trust the official Chinese numbers at all.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7694 on: July 15, 2020, 02:54:43 PM »
Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has ordered hospitals to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all Covid-19 patient information to a central database in Washington beginning on Wednesday. The move has alarmed health experts who fear the data will be politicized or withheld from the public.

The new instructions were posted recently in a little-noticed document on the Department of Health and Human Services website. From now on, the department — not the C.D.C. — will collect daily reports about the patients that each hospital is treating, the number of available beds and ventilators, and other information vital to tracking the pandemic.

Officials say the change will streamline data gathering and assist the White House coronavirus task force in allocating scarce supplies like personal protective gear and remdesivir, the first drug shown to be effective against the virus. But the Health and Human Services database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions.

“Historically, C.D.C. has been the place where public health data has been sent, and this raises questions about not just access for researchers but access for reporters, access for the public to try to better understand what is happening with the outbreak," said Jen Kates, the director of global health and H.I.V. policy with the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation.

“How will the data be protected?” she asked. “Will there be transparency, will there be access, and what is the role of the C.D.C. in understanding the data?”

News of the change came as a shock at the C.D.C., according to two officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. Michael R. Caputo, a Health and Human Services spokesman, called the C.D.C.’s system inadequate and said the two systems would be linked. The C.D.C. would continue to make data public, he said.

But the instructions to hospitals in the department guidance are explicit and underscored: “As of July 15, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the Covid-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site,” the C.D.C.’s system for gathering data from more than 25,000 medical centers around the country.

Public health experts have long expressed concerns that the Trump administration is politicizing science and undermining its health experts, in particular the C.D.C.; four of the agency’s former directors, spanning both ... The data collection shift reinforced those fears.

“Centralizing control of all data under the umbrella of an inherently political apparatus is dangerous and breeds distrust,” said Dr. Nicole Lurie, who served as assistant secretary for preparedness and response under former President Barack Obama. “It appears to cut off the ability of agencies like C.D.C. to do its basic job.”

... While she said she understood Dr. Lurie’s concern, Dr. Orlowski said the administration had pledged in “a verbal discussion” to make the data public — or at least give hospitals access to it.

... In its new guidance, Health and Human Services said that going forward, hospitals should report detailed information on a daily basis directly to the new centralized system, which is managed by TeleTracking, a health data firm with headquarters in Pittsburgh.

Senator Patty Murray of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate health committee, has raised questions about the TeleTracking contract, calling it a “noncompetitive, multimillion-dollar contract” for a “duplicative health data system.”

---------------------------------

... it's not how many votes cases there are but who counts the votes cases

----------------------------------

... Trump has said he will "pressure" governors to reopen schools, despite internal documents from the CDC separately obtained by the Times warning that reopening K-12 schools and universities would be the "highest risk" for the spread of the deadly virus.

-------------------------------------

Federal Stockpile is Thin Amid Coronavirus Surge, Internal Documents Show
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1233791

WASHINGTON — The federal government may not have the capacity to supply medical professionals with personal protective equipment amid the latest surge in coronavirus cases, according to internal administration documents obtained by NBC News.

In particular, nursing homes and long-term care facilities say there is a major personal protective equipment shortage.

... The administration has also struggled in its efforts to procure body bags. State and local governments have requested 175,797 of them, according to the HHS data, but only 69,067 have been provided. One federal order for 100,000 human remains pouches was rescinded earlier this year after the contractor defaulted on the deal, according to federal records.

--------------------------------

Trump Says U.S. Would Have Half the Coronavirus Cases If It Did Half the Testing
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/trump-says-us-would-have-half-the-number-of-coronavirus-cases-if-it-did-half-the-testing.html

President Donald Trump insisted that the U.S. would have fewer coronavirus cases if it conducted less testing — even as outbreaks continue to surge across the nation and deaths begin to pick up pace.

“Think of this, if we didn’t do testing, instead of testing over 40 million people, if we did half the testing we would have half the cases,” Trump said at a press conference at the White House. “If we did another, you cut that in half, we would have, yet again, half of that. But the headlines are always testing.”

[... and if you didn't test at all - it would just like miraculously 'disappear']

... to an innumerate populace this calculus makes sense

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7695 on: July 15, 2020, 03:56:16 PM »

Your Snopes thing is from February. The preprint was posted June 16.

That exactly my point. It's a narrative pushed since the beginning of this pandemic. Neo-nazi Steve Bannon and his anti-China neocon friends are behind this shit and its propaganda. Better not carry the water for those people.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7696 on: July 15, 2020, 04:04:47 PM »
As Pandemic Rages Out of Control, CDC Head Warns of Darker Times This Fall
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/as-pandemic-rages-out-of-control-cdc-head-warns-of-darker-times-this-fall/

If seasonal influenza roars back this fall while the COVID-19 pandemic is still raging, the combined weight of the diseases could cause US healthcare systems to collapse, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Tuesday.

The grim warning comes as COVID-19 is spreading out of control in many areas of the country, which is now seeing upwards of 60,000 new cases a day.

“I am worried,” CDC director Robert Redfield said in a live interview with Howard Bauchner, editor-in-chief of the medical journal JAMA. “I do think the fall and the winter of 2020 and 2021 are going to be probably one of the most difficult times we’ve experienced in American public health.”

Outbreaks of seasonal influenza can stress healthcare system resources in normal times. But, on top of a devastating pandemic with no end in sight, the yearly burst of respiratory infections could overwhelm hospitals and clinics.

The CDC estimated that up to 56 million people were sickened in the 2019-2020 flu season (spanning October to April), which led to as many as 740,000 hospitalizations and up to 62,000 deaths.

Since the pandemic began in January, the US has reported over 3.4 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 136,000 deaths.

If hospitals and clinics become overwhelmed with the mix of flu and COVID-19 patients, health care workers won’t be able to provide optimal care. This will lead to more deaths among those patients as well as patients seeking care for all other types of illnesses and conditions.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7697 on: July 15, 2020, 07:12:24 PM »
Wait what?  Snopes is not credible.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116012v2.full.pdf+html

The authors of that paper are highly credible, why would they put their names and titles on the line?

Mai He, M.D., Ph.D.
 Department of Pathology and Immunology,
 Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis,

Department of Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA



harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7698 on: July 15, 2020, 07:16:34 PM »
...By Feb 20, 2020, there would have been 232,000 (95% CrI (161,000-359,000))
confirmed cases in China as opposed to only 55,508 reported cases.32 247 By using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data, Sanche S et al projected the infected population would be around 233,400... by the end of January.3


-  Mai He, M.D., Ph.D.
 Department of Pathology and Immunology, Washington University

This is a credible source.

« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 07:48:26 PM by harpy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7699 on: July 15, 2020, 08:30:41 PM »
US COVID-19 Epidemic Projected to Worsen
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-epidemic-worsen.html

The latest modeling projects the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US to increase further, even as one research team suggests the near-universal use of masks could save 40,000 lives between now and November

The death toll stood at 136,000 Wednesday, but the country should hit 151,000 by August 1 and 157,000 by August 8, according to an average of models of 23 research groups in the United States and elsewhere.

The figures were published by the University of Massachusetts Amherst's Reich lab on Tuesday on behalf of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

A week ago, this average predicted 147,000 deaths on August 1.

California, Florida and Texas, the three most populous states in the country, will see one thousand more deaths over the next four weeks compared to the previous four, said Professor Nicholas Reich.

The University of Washington's IHME model, goes further and predicted Wednesday 224,000 deaths on November 1.

Another, by independent modeler Youyang Gu, in New York, predicts 227,000 deaths by November 1.

According to the IHME group, more Americans are wearing masks, and fewer are leaving their homes.

The model has access to GPS data through commercial partners.

"If 95 percent of Americans wore masks when leaving their homes, that number (of deaths) would drop by more than 40,000," the research center said.

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The US has seen 67,000 cases in a single day – the highest number in 24 hours so far, according to the John Hopkins university of medicine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention put the figure at 60,971.

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Oklahoma Governor Tests Positive for COVID-19
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/coronavirus-vaccine-poised-final-testing-live-updates-200714232458235.html

A Republican governor who has backed one of the US’s most aggressive reopening plans, resisted any statewide mandate on masks and who rarely wears one himself, has tested positive for coronavirus, AP reports.

Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt announced Wednesday that he’s the first governor in the United States to test positive for the coronavirus and that he is isolating at home.

Stitt, 48, said he mostly feels fine, although he started feeling "a little achy" on Tuesday and sought a test. He said his wife and children were also tested Tuesday and that none of them has tested positive.

"We respect people’s rights ... to not wear a mask," Stitt said during Wednesday's news conference, which was held virtually. "You just open up a big can of worms."

... One of Stitt’s cabinet members, David Ostrowe, tested positive for coronavirus in March.

There has been a dramatic increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in Oklahoma, with nearly 22,000 confirmed cases and 428 deaths.

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Florida Confirms More Than 10,000 New Cases
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/coronavirus-vaccine-poised-final-testing-live-updates-200714232458235.html

Florida reported 10,181 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, taking the total number of infections in the state to 301,810.

The state confirmed 112 deaths, the third time in the last seven days its eclipsed 100. The death toll stands at 4,626.

As of Tuesday, Florida had the second-highest fatalities in the United States, slightly behind Texas.

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Bangladesh Arrests Hospital Owner Over Fake Virus Results
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/coronavirus-vaccine-poised-final-testing-live-updates-200714232458235.html

A Bangladesh hospital owner accused of issuing thousands of fake negative coronavirus test results to patients at his two clinics was arrested Wednesday while trying to fleeing to India in a burqa, police said.

... "His hospitals carried out 10,500 coronavirus tests, out of which 4,200 were genuine and the rest, 6,300 test reports, were given without conducting tests," Col. Billah added.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 11:00:04 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late