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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 585734 times)

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7700 on: July 16, 2020, 12:12:15 AM »
This deck was updated again on 7/2 which means another is probably impending --

https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/slides-sird.pdf

Necessary R-0 for spread in NYC is estimated to be 1.4 and that is probably *low* as they are using a death toll that is incomplete (IMO). I think that NYC accidentally essentially adopted Sweden's strategy successfully and unknowingly and much more completely than Sweden did. And the relatively more complete herd immunity among critical workers (IMO) probably enhances r0 necessary for sustained transmission even further (which coupled with masks makes achieving it with reopening MUCH more difficult here than anywhere else).

We have been having 15-20 new cases a day in Manhattan past few days which is now better than most anywhere else on Earth. As parts of the US are shutting down, we are resuming back to normal -- people are on the streets again, I was at the beach on Sunday and it was packed and everyone was happy and looked exceedingly HEALTHY, and the city is once again almost back to normal. While our COVID experience was very painful I am increasingly optimistic that NYC's accidental incompetence was actually the best strategy (unless a real vaccine is deployed before winter but I don't think it will happen / I do not believe the news re: MRNA).

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7701 on: July 16, 2020, 02:55:28 AM »
My county is alert level 3 red. Masks mandatory. Next is alert level 4 purple or stay at home...one Ohio county is close to that.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7702 on: July 16, 2020, 10:50:22 AM »
TWiV 640: Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina


crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7703 on: July 16, 2020, 01:37:59 PM »
Is US case fatality rate falling rapidly?

On June 23 new cases reached 36066 and has been noticeable growing larger since and this was only exceeded twice before in the April peak. So cases higher to much higher for more than last 3 weeks compared to April peak.

7 day average deaths exceeded 2k for April 12 to April 29 but current deaths have only just gone up to 1000 per day.

So what caused this?

Possibilities include:

Cases more spread out so more hospitals can take the load.

Significantly better treatment with experience and drugs

Virus getting milder

Edit: intended to include more testing finding milder cases
 
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 02:22:43 PM by crandles »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7704 on: July 16, 2020, 02:00:53 PM »
Possibilities include:

Or just simple manipulation!

We can stop trusting the US data completely. The orange fascist banned hospitals from reporting data to the CDC.

Trump orders hospitals to send Covid-19 data to White House, not CDC - and suggests sending National Guard to facilities that don't comply

Link >> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-cdc-data-covid-national-guard-a9621091.html

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7705 on: July 16, 2020, 02:19:59 PM »
Scientists Uncover SARS-CoV-2-Specific T Cell Immunity In Recovered COVID-19 and SARS Patients
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-scientists-uncover-sars-cov-specific-cell-immunity.html

A Singapore study has uncovered the presence of virus-specific T cell immunity in people who recovered from COVID-19 and SARS, as well as some healthy study subjects who had never been infected by either virus.

The team tested subjects who recovered from COVID-19 and found the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in all of them, which suggests that T cells play an important role in this infection. Importantly, the team showed that patients who recovered from SARS 17 years ago after the 2003 outbreak, still possess virus-specific memory T cells and displayed cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

"Our team also tested uninfected healthy individuals and found SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in more than 50 percent of them. This could be due to cross-reactive immunity obtained from exposure to other coronaviruses, such as those causing the common cold, or presently unknown animal coronaviruses. It is important to understand if this could explain why some individuals are able to better control the infection," said Professor Antonio Bertoletti, from Duke-NUS' Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) programme, who is the corresponding author of this study.

... "We have also initiated follow-up studies on the COVID-19 recovered patients, to determine if their immunity as shown in their T cells persists over an extended period of time. This is very important for vaccine development and to answer the question about reinfection."

Nina Le Bert et al. SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls, Nature (2020).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

------------------------------

Researchers Find Three Distinct Immune Responses for Sicker COVID-19 Patients
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-distinct-immune-responses-sicker-covid-.html

Researchers from the Penn Institute of Immunology discovered three distinct immune responses to the SARS-CoV2 infection that could help predict the trajectory of disease in severe COVID-19 patients and may ultimately inform how to best treat them. The findings were published in Science.

... Researchers applied deep immune profiling to capture individual responses of 163 patients during the course of their infections. The study included 90 hospitalized patients treated at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, 29 non-hospitalized patients, and 44 healthy donors with no COVID-19 infection. The immune responses varied among the group, but there were patterns that hold clinical promise.

The first immunotype had robust CD4+ T cell activity, with modest activation of CD8+ T cells and peripheral blood lymphocytes. CD4+ and CD8+ act as the main inflammatory immune cells that work to clear viruses. The second immunotype was characterized mainly by a subset of CD8+ T cells known as EM and EMRA and a modest activation of CD8+ T cells, memory B cells, and peripheral blood lymphocytes. The third immunotype showed little to no evidence of an immune response to the infection.

Next, researchers combined the profiling with clinical data to understand the relationships between immune responses and disease. The first immunotype was tied to more severe disease that included inflammation, organ failure, and acute kidney disease. The second correlated not with disease severity but instead pre-existing immunosuppression and mortality. The third type, which had no immune activation, was not associated with specific symptoms or clinical features, though they varied.

"T and B cell activity are informed by innate immune responses," said senior author Michael R. Betts, Ph.D., a professor of Microbiology and program leader in the Penn Institute of Immunology, who is also a co-author on the first study. "We believe what's happening with the innate response of the immune system might be what's leading to these three immune phenotypes Dr. Wherry's lab identified."

Profiling the blood samples of 42 infected patients (with moderate and severe disease) and 12 healthy donors, the researchers found a similar heterogeneity in immune adaptive responses: robust activation of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, B cells, along with peripheral blood cells, like neutrophils, monocytes, and "natural killer," or NK, cells.

While the innate responses were also heterogenous, the researchers observed a decrease of CD15 and CD16 molecules on neutrophils and CD16 on NK cells, immature granulocytes, and monocytes, in patients with more severe disease. These two molecules are known players in the immune's response to viral infections that also represent a potential target for immunotherapy. How they are driving and exacerbating the adaptive responses in the three immunotypes is an important question the labs are working to better understand.

Mathew Divij et al, Deep immune profiling of COVID-19 patients reveals distinct immunotypes with therapeutic implications, Science 15 Jul 2020
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/07/15/science.abc8511

------------------------------

COVID-19 Severity Is Increased In Patients With Mild Obesity
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-severity-patients-mild-obesity.html

The risk of greater COVID-19 severity and death is higher in people with any obese body mass index (BMI), according to a study to be published in the European Journal of Endocrinology. The study findings showed that BMI over 30 was associated with a significantly higher risk of respiratory failure, admission to intensive care and death in COVID-19 patients, regardless of age, gender and other associated diseases. The current guidelines for identifying those at higher risk in the UK are set at a BMI of 40 but these data suggest people with BMI over 30 should also be classified as at risk.

----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7706 on: July 16, 2020, 02:22:31 PM »
Social Distancing and Lockdowns Linked to Reduction in COVID-19 Cases: Study
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/370/bmj.m2743.full.pdf

Earlier implementation of lockdown has been associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of COVID-19, a new study by the BMJ found.

"Data from 149 countries showed that the incidence of COVID-19 cases decreased by an average of 13 percent in association with physical distancing interventions," the study read.   

According to the research no evidence was found of additional benefits from the closure of public transport when four other physical distancing measures - school closures, workplace closure, restrictions on mass gatherings and lockdown - were in place.

---------------------------------

Social Distancing and COVID-19: A Law of Diminishing Returns
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-social-distancing-covid-law-diminishing.html

In an "editor's pick" paper published today in the journal Chaos of the American Institute of Physics, Washington University in St. Louis researchers in the lab of Rajan Chakrabarty, associate professor in the department of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering at the McKelvey School of Engineering, modeled the interplay between the duration and intensity of social distancing. They found a law of diminishing returns, showing that longer periods of social distancing are not always more successful when it comes to slowing the spread, and that any strategy that involves social distancing requires other steps be taken in tandem.

"Conventional wisdom was, the more intense and long-term the social distancing, the more you will curb the disease spread," Chakrabarty said

"But that is true if you have social distancing implemented with contact tracing, isolation and testing. Without those, you will give rise to a second wave."

... No matter what strategy they looked at, one thing was clear, Chakrabarty said: "Had social distancing been implemented earlier, we probably would've done a better job."

According to the model, the most efficient distancing- to- no-distancing ratio is 5 to 1; one day of no distancing for every five days at home. Had society acted in this way, hospital burden could have been reduced by 80%, Chakrabarty said. Exceeding this ratio, the model showed a diminishing return.

Critically, the researchers note that social distancing policy as a whole-of-government approach could not be successful without the implementation of wide-spread testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those found to be infected.

... "And you have to do it aggressively," Chakrabarty added. "If you do not, what you're going to do, the moment you lift social distancing, is give rise to a second wave."



Semi-log plot for the relationship between social distancing duration and the corresponding maximum attainable decrease in medical demands for social distancing of various intensities. The emergence of two regimes becomes clear, separated into short-term (duration < 2 weeks) and long-term (duration > 2 weeks, gray shaded region). For short-term social distancing, stronger social distancing (denoted by increasing intervention intensity) leads to a monotonous decrease in medical demands. For long term social distancing, the largest reduction in medical demands is achieved when intervention intensity =70%, beyond which the benefits of social distancing diminish.

Pai Liu et al, Dynamic interplay between social distancing duration and intensity in reducing COVID-19 US hospitalizations: A "law of diminishing returns", Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science (2020).
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0013871

---------------------------------

Study Finds Global Sentiments Toward COVID-19 Shifting from Fear to Anger
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-global-sentiments-covid-shifting-anger.html


Graph showing the evolving public emotions over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic based on tweets. The figure provided is an extended version of the data published to include more recent data from the months of May and June.

In an analysis of over 20 million tweets in English related to the coronavirus, an international team of communication researchers observed that tweets reflecting fear, while dominant at the start of the outbreak due to the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, have tapered off over the course of the pandemic.

Xenophobia was a common theme among anger-related tweets, which progressively increased, peaking on 12 March—a day after the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. The anger then evolved to reflect feelings arising from isolation and social seclusion.

Accompanying this later shift is the emergence of tweets that show joy, which the researchers say suggested a sense of pride, gratitude, hope, and happiness. Tweets that reflected sadness doubled, although they remain proportionally lower than the other emotions.



... Tweets that were collected and analyzed from early April to mid-June as an extension of the JMIR study also showed that these positive sentiments exceeded fear postings on social media.

May Oo Lwin et al. Global Sentiments Surrounding the COVID-19 Pandemic on Twitter: Analysis of Twitter Trends, JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (2020)
https://publichealth.jmir.org/2020/2/e19447/

---------------------------------



----------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7707 on: July 16, 2020, 02:28:23 PM »
Is US case fatality rate falling rapidly?

It did fall, but now the 7 day average is creeping up from a low of 516 on 5 July to 755 on 15 July.

I am sure that improved systems procedures & treatments play a large part, but some say the change in death rate may lag as much as 30 days behind the change in new cases.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7708 on: July 16, 2020, 02:53:29 PM »
Whoops....


Social Distancing and COVID-19: A Law of Diminishing Returns
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-social-distancing-covid-law-diminishing.html
They found a law of diminishing returns, showing that longer periods of social distancing are not always more successful when it comes to slowing the spread, and that any strategy that involves social distancing requires other steps be taken in tandem.

"Conventional wisdom was, the more intense and long-term the social distancing, the more you will curb the disease spread," Chakrabarty said

"But that is true if you have social distancing implemented with contact tracing, isolation and testing. Without those, you will give rise to a second wave."

... No matter what strategy they looked at, one thing was clear, Chakrabarty said: "Had social distancing been implemented earlier, we probably would've done a better job."

Critically, the researchers note that social distancing policy as a whole-of-government approach could not be successful without the implementation of wide-spread testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those found to be infected.

... "And you have to do it aggressively," Chakrabarty added. "If you do not, what you're going to do, the moment you lift social distancing, is give rise to a second wave."


Here in the UK the "implementation of ]wide-spread testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those found to be infected" started far too late and is still not going well.

The situation is stable at the moment, about 600 new cases and 80 deaths per day. But enough virus is out there to prime the pump for Wave-2 this Autumn / Winter..

Financial stimulus exhausted, banks laden with bad debt, unemployment through the roof, Brexit becomes stark reality......
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7709 on: July 16, 2020, 03:00:16 PM »
With an R0 as high as Smallpox, and Rubella, this virus a potent, and potentially terminal societal disruption.   

Our society has not returned to normal.  I continue to see daily evidence that our standard of living has changed.

Death rate doesn't need to be high, the virus has taken a fragile and vulnerable society and pushed it over the cliff.

« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 03:06:34 PM by harpy »

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7710 on: July 16, 2020, 03:37:56 PM »
Is US case fatality rate falling rapidly?

On June 23 new cases reached 36066 and has been noticeable growing larger since and this was only exceeded twice before in the April peak. So cases higher to much higher for more than last 3 weeks compared to April peak.

7 day average deaths exceeded 2k for April 12 to April 29 but current deaths have only just gone up to 1000 per day.

So what caused this?

Possibilities include:

Cases more spread out so more hospitals can take the load.

Significantly better treatment with experience and drugs

Virus getting milder

Edit: intended to include more testing finding milder cases

Any of those are possibilities.  Another is that the most susceptible have already caught the virus and died.  The CFR peaked in mid May at just over 6%.  It has since fallen to under 4%, as the weekly mortality rate has plummeted to almost 1%. 

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7711 on: July 16, 2020, 04:06:41 PM »
Is US case fatality rate falling rapidly?

It did fall, but now the 7 day average is creeping up from a low of 516 on 5 July to 755 on 15 July.

I am sure that improved systems procedures & treatments play a large part, but some say the change in death rate may lag as much as 30 days behind the change in new cases.

Deaths did fall and are now rising again. Note that deaths are not same as CFR.

30 days seems much longer than ~12-18 days it used to be and seen in other countries. I expect some change as people might be getting tested earlier and results coming through faster while treatments might prolong period before deaths. I wouldn't expect 12-18 days to increase by as much as to 30 days, so I am tending to think it is likely a combination of several effects.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7712 on: July 16, 2020, 04:23:21 PM »
US death rate:
Better treatment - improves death rate somewhat.
Avoidance of ventilation for as long as possible - improves death rate somewhat.
Longer time to death - both thanks to earlier detection, better treatment, and delayed ventilation.
Perhaps skewed infection demographics thanks to older and sicker people protecting themselves more than average.
In any case, I am certain the death chart will head up soon.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7713 on: July 16, 2020, 07:57:13 PM »
Luxembourgish data : we are now at 90 cases per week for 100'000 inhabitants

The government is saying that numbers can't be compared internationally because we also test border workers, but they are only 18% of the cases, so we would be at 74 cases per week for 100'000 inhabitants. We have about 200'000 border workers and 626'000 inhabitants.

The government doesn't take any special measure, but the schools started yesterday the summer holidays, so the feeling is that they managed very badly the contamination in the schools and that the summer holidays are the main action against COVID19.

For more graphs https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html
When looking at the graphs, you have to read carefully what is represented. Most can't be compared because they are not based on the same data (active cases, total cases, tested people, positive tested people...).
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 08:12:30 PM by etienne »

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7714 on: July 16, 2020, 08:45:31 PM »
One of our local prisons, FCI Lompoc, has almost all of its inmates having tested positive. Four have died so far, there are still inmates in ICU.
 I have seen seroprevalence studies that people use to argue some people are immune but jail statistics argue almost no one is. I think seroprevalence studies need much more time and testing before we can draw much from seroprevalence studies. QC issues

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tested-federal-inmates-positive-coronavirus/story?id=71275461

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7715 on: July 16, 2020, 08:52:32 PM »
Is US case fatality rate falling rapidly?

It did fall, but now the 7 day average is creeping up from a low of 516 on 5 July to 755 on 15 July.

I am sure that improved systems procedures & treatments play a large part, but some say the change in death rate may lag as much as 30 days behind the change in new cases.

Deaths did fall and are now rising again. Note that deaths are not same as CFR.

30 days seems much longer than ~12-18 days it used to be and seen in other countries. I expect some change as people might be getting tested earlier and results coming through faster while treatments might prolong period before deaths. I wouldn't expect 12-18 days to increase by as much as to 30 days, so I am tending to think it is likely a combination of several effects.

Previously, cases peaked in the U.S. at 32,464 on April 7, while deaths peaked at 2254 on April 18.  Cases bottomed out on June 6 reaching 21,294, but deaths kept falling for four weeks, until reaching the 515 level.  I cannot say if that means that deaths will peak four weeks (or 30 days) after cases peak.  I think that knowledge learned from the initial cases has helped dramatically stem the fatality rate, but have not heard about treatment prolonging death.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7716 on: July 16, 2020, 09:32:48 PM »
One of our local prisons, FCI Lompoc, has almost all of its inmates having tested positive. Four have died so far, there are still inmates in ICU.
 I have seen seroprevalence studies that people use to argue some people are immune but jail statistics argue almost no one is. I think seroprevalence studies need much more time and testing before we can draw much from seroprevalence studies. QC issues

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tested-federal-inmates-positive-coronavirus/story?id=71275461
Jails select for non-young and Vit-D deficient (you are locked in a cell all day). So why would they be bastions of innate immunity. And the food situation? lol.

Next you will tell me a new study shows that nursing home stats argue that the overall mortality rate is 10%.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7717 on: July 16, 2020, 09:45:19 PM »
One of our local prisons, FCI Lompoc, has almost all of its inmates having tested positive. Four have died so far, there are still inmates in ICU.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tested-federal-inmates-positive-coronavirus/story?id=71275461

This is important news Bruce.

1) 90% of 997 inmates tested positive. 90%. Basically everyone. Say goodbye to dreams of "4 out of 5 have T-cell resistance and don't need antibodies"

2) 4 died out of 997. That is 0,4%. And this populations has very likely fewer old people than the normal population, so true IFr is definitely higher than 0,4%. Say goodbye to dreams of "0,05% IFR" ant the like.

I hope Neven read this one

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7718 on: July 16, 2020, 10:21:01 PM »
El CID, I don’t believe anyone is immune. I wonder if after a year or two that same FIC prison will have new Covid waves? Local paper headline
https://lompocrecord.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/nearly-all-inmates-at-lompoc-fci-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-most-asymptomatic/article_f3fb06d7-f231-52b3-8f89-f21f11b73974.html

Our local hospitals housed the ICU prison population. No masks and no way to isolate from cell mates.

https://www.independent.com/2020/06/08/22-days-in-lompoc-prisons-covid-19-hellhole/
Another story about Lompoc FCI

« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 10:28:28 PM by Bruce Steele »

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7719 on: July 16, 2020, 10:24:10 PM »
El CID, I don’t believe anyone is immune. I wonder if after a year or two that same FIC prison will have new Covid waves? Local paper headline
https://lompocrecord.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/nearly-all-inmates-at-lompoc-fci-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-most-asymptomatic/article_f3fb06d7-f231-52b3-8f89-f21f11b73974.html

Our local hospitals housed the ICU prison population. No masks and no way to isolate from cell mates.
This is the message I got when trying to follow the link :
Quote
451: Unavailable due to legal reasons

We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact DigitalAlerts@lompocrecord.com or call 877.286.1686.

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7720 on: July 16, 2020, 10:30:31 PM »
Etienne, I tried the links and they both work for me.
Bbr, I am not making claims other than my belief that no one is immune. Of course infection rates in a population free to protect itself with masks, distance and hygiene is different than a prison population but a prisoner has a hard time refusing a Covid test so you probably get a more complete picture than modeling populations of deniers, conspiracy adherents, and antivax adherents.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 10:40:21 PM by Bruce Steele »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7721 on: July 16, 2020, 11:30:38 PM »
One of our local prisons, FCI Lompoc, has almost all of its inmates having tested positive. Four have died so far, there are still inmates in ICU.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tested-federal-inmates-positive-coronavirus/story?id=71275461

This is important news Bruce.

1) 90% of 997 inmates tested positive. 90%. Basically everyone. Say goodbye to dreams of "4 out of 5 have T-cell resistance and don't need antibodies"

2) 4 died out of 997. That is 0,4%. And this populations has very likely fewer old people than the normal population, so true IFr is definitely higher than 0,4%. Say goodbye to dreams of "0,05% IFR" ant the like.

I hope Neven read this one
It is likely entirely MALE for which mortality is DOUBLE that of females in most locations or at least 50% greater and as I have also said the population is actually probably skewed ELDERLY (why would there be fewer old people in jail? people die in jail because they get life sentences and rot there and men are 100% of the population).

Do some people live on a planet where old prisoners are released to nursing homes?!?! Like what??? Do you think they don't just leave them in there to die? lol

And then compound ^ factors with lack of sunlight / Vit D. There you go. Dead people. Wow, big surprise.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7722 on: July 17, 2020, 12:09:42 AM »
Once read a tip never to stock your fallout shelter with nuclear war novels.
Since I don't listen to such advice I am reading Pandemic by A. G. Riddle.
Cases soar unrealistically fast, but that seems par for the course for pandemic fiction (except for the ur-example, Shelley's The Last Man).
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7723 on: July 17, 2020, 01:12:32 AM »
(why would there be fewer old people in jail? people die in jail because they get life sentences and rot there and men are 100% of the population).

Do some people live on a planet where old prisoners are released to nursing homes?!?! Like what??? Do you think they don't just leave them in there to die? lol

In most countries on this planet there are very few old people in jail. (Although I saw something about Japan, that old people go shoplifting etc to get convicted.)

Yes, in this country (Sweden) one can get convicted to a "life sentence" but it is rare, about ten or twenty per year maybe. And it is never really life: the average time in prison is about 16 years.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7724 on: July 17, 2020, 02:48:44 AM »


The White House suggested science should not determine whether schools reopen this fall. “The science should not stand in the way of this,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said of Trump’s push to reopen schools.

-------------------------------

Florida Coronavirus: Nearly A Third Of Children Tested For COVID-19 Have Been Positive

- 17,073 children in Florida tested positive for the coronavirus

- The 31% positivity rate for children is 3 times the state's average positivity rate
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 03:07:53 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7725 on: July 17, 2020, 04:08:12 AM »
Trump Admin Undercuts CDC, Seizes Control of National COVID-19 Data
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/07/trump-admin-undercuts-cdc-seizes-control-of-national-covid-19-data/

... The updated instructions from the Department of Health and Human Services (PDF), dated July 10, go into effect today. Under the new mandate, the CDC "will no longer control" data reported by hospitals about admissions, capacity, resource utilization, ventilator use, staffing—or COVID-related deaths. Hospitals are instead required to make their reports directly to HHS ...

The instructions also explicitly bar hospitals from reporting to the CDC in addition to HHS: "As of July 15, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the COVID-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site," the document explains, referring to the CDC's system.

https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

... In other words, for hospitals to receive federal aid, including access to one of the few known beneficial drugs for treating COVID-19, they will have to comply with the administration's data directive.

Ryan Panchadsaram, one of the team behind popular COVID-19 data visualization site Covid Exit Strategy, said the site is already unable to gather data for ICU beds in use following the change. In series of Tweets posted very early this morning, he indicated, "a critical indicator is missing... with @HHSGov as the only source, they need to aggregate this data and make it public. With daily briefings over, the public needs it more than ever."

The directive echoes moves made by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in June, when his administration removed almost all data relating to COVID-19 from Brazil's government websites and made it unavailable to researchers

---------------------------------

Data Disappears from CDC After Shift In Control to HHS
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html

Previously public data on hospital bed availability across the U.S. disappeared from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website after the Trump administration shifted control of the information to the Department of Health and Human Services.

The public information disappeared after federal officials told states to stop reporting data from hospitals to the CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network, the agency’s data reporting system, and to instead report directly to a new HHS portal.

When reached for comment, HHS spokesman Michael Caputo said in a statement that HHS is committed to transparency and that the CDC was instructed to republish the data.

After CNBC reported that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention removed data on the availability of hospital beds across the country from its website, the agency has republished some of the data through Tuesday, but said it will no longer provide updates.

“The following downloadable file contains national and state estimates from the NHSN COVID-19 Module,” the CDC says on its site. “This file will not be updated after July 14, 2020 and includes data from April 1 to July 14.”

----------------------------------



--------------------------------

Florida Faces Remdesivir Shortages
https://mobile.twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1283761829454532610

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio said on Twitter that he’s heard reports as recently as “late last night” that “several hospitals” in Florida have “low or no supplies” of the drug.

Shipments of the drug to Florida are coordinated by the federal government, Rubio wrote on Twitter, and “we have a bad disconnect between what they think we need & what we really need.”

-------------------------------

Senators Warren, Sanders Slam Trump On Deal With Gilead for Remdesivir
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/sens-elizabeth-warren-and-bernie-sanders-slam-trump-for-giving-gilead-windfall-deal-for-coronavirus-drug.html

In a new letter addressed to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar that was obtained by CNBC, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders slammed the Trump administration for giving Gilead Sciences a “windfall” deal to secure most of the pharmaceutical company’s supply of its coronavirus-fighting drug remdesivir to the United States.

The senators said the deal will give Gilead millions in revenue borne almost entirely by American taxpayers, “in whole or in part” through higher insurance premiums.

Gilead said it would sell remdesivir for $520 per vial in the U.S. to patients with private insurance and $390 per vial to federal insurance programs like Medicare as well as foreign countries.

-----------------------------------

With Morgues Brimming, Texas and Arizona Turn to Refrigerator Trucks
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/with-morgues-brimming-texas-and-arizona-turn-to-refrigerator-trucks/

Officials in Texas and Arizona have requested refrigerated trucks to hold the dead as hospitals and morgues become overwhelmed by victims of the raging COVID-19 pandemic.

“In the hospital, there are only so many places to put bodies,” Ken Davis, chief medical officer of Christus Santa Rosa Health System in the San Antonio area, said in a briefing this week. “We're out of space, and our funeral homes are out of space, and we need those beds. So, when someone dies, we need to quickly turn that bed over."

https://youtu.be/_Ff41deocxA?t=607

Several other areas in the state have ordered, bought, or are seeking refrigerated trucks or trailers to hold bodies. That includes Nueces, Cameron, Travis, Hidalgo, and Harris counties, as well as the city of Austin, according to The Texas Tribune.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/texas-coronavirus-deaths-morgues-capacity/

The picture is not looking much better in Arizona, were hospitalizations and deaths are also spiking. The state, which has counted over 134,000 cases and 2,492 deaths, has reached 90 percent capacity of its beds for adult intensive care patients. The mayor of Phoenix said late last week that the city is working to secure refrigerator trucks.

https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/maricopa-county-medical-examiner-at-96-capacity-refrigerator-trucks-ordered/article_5691cd30-c2de-11ea-952c-ebc74378852b.html

A similar scenario may play out in Florida, which is also reporting record numbers of cases and deaths. In recent days, the state has had record highs, with over 15,300 cases on July 12 and 156 deaths today. Around 50 hospitals in the state have run out of adult beds in their intensive care units, according to the Agency for Healthcare Administration.

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHospital

... “Every disaster has its images, its symbols. For COVID-19, it might just be the refrigerator truck. It’s our overflow morgue, holding the patients we could not save.”

------------------------------------



Something Wicked This Way Comes
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge-coming/166944/

... By the absolute or per capita numbers, the U.S. stands out as nearly the only country besides Iran that had a large spring outbreak, began to suppress the virus, and then simply let the virus come back.

No other country in the world has attempted what the U.S. appears to be stumbling into. Right now, many, many communities have huge numbers of infections. When other countries reached this kind of takeoff point for viral spread, they took drastic measures.

Most American states are adamant about opening into the teeth of the outbreak. And this level of outbreak will not stay neatly within a governor’s political boundaries. There’s no way to win this state by state, and yet that’s exactly what we’re attempting. From the look of the map, the South and West—regions with a combined 200 million people—are in trouble.

The regional variation of the American outbreak is crucial to understanding both what happened and what’s going to happen next. Nationwide, the U.S. deaths per million tally—a hair under 400—is in the top ten globally. But look just at the Northeast’s 56 million people, and the death rate is more than double the national average: 1,100 deaths per million.

By contrast, the South and West—where SARS-CoV-2 is burning through the population—are much more populous than the Northeast. If those areas continue to see cases grow, they could see as many deaths per million as the Northeast did but multiplied by a larger number of people. At 1,100 deaths per million, the South and West would see 180,000 more deaths. Even at half the Northeast’s number, that’s another 69,000 Americans.

... New York City is and probably will remain the worst-case scenario. New York City has lost 23,353 lives. That’s 0.28 percent of the city’s population. If, as some antibody-prevalence surveys suggest, 20 percent of New Yorkers were infected, that’s an infection-fatality rate of more than 1.3 percent, which exceeds what the CDC or anyone else is planning for. To put it in the same terms discussed here, New York City saw 2,780 deaths per million people. A similar scenario across the South and West would kill over 550,000 more Americans in just a few months, moving the country to 680,000 dead. It is unthinkable, and yet, 130,000 deaths—the current national death toll—was once unthinkable, too.

For months, most public-health officials have argued that the infection-fatality rate—the number of people who die from all infections, detected and undetected, symptomatic and asymptomatic—was somewhere between 0.5 and 1 percent. The CDC’s latest estimates in its planning scenarios range from 0.5 to 0.8 percent. Take that lower number and imagine that roughly 40 percent of the country becomes infected. That’s 800,000 lives lost.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7726 on: July 17, 2020, 07:28:30 AM »
TWiV 641: COVID-19 with Dr. Anthony Fauci


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7727 on: July 17, 2020, 07:45:27 AM »
“The science should not stand in the way of this,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said of Trump’s push to reopen schools.

These people should rot in prison with a 'life sentence'!

They are bio-terrorists.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7728 on: July 17, 2020, 08:24:36 AM »
lol @ thinking lockdowns are working // Victoria below


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7729 on: July 17, 2020, 09:43:24 AM »
On Fauci.

Why is he being celebrated?

Whether he was forced by the circumstances to accomodate Trump or a knowing accomplice and enabler of Trump's madness, the response of the US has been abysmal. Whaever his actions where they led to great harm.

Of course, the obvios reason for the disastrous response is the monster in the whitehouse stealing and lying, but Fauci response then and there should have been to stop the lies on their tracks and speak the truth. Force Trump to fire him. Instead, he went along with the lies (No masks? WTF). As a result there are at least 140k Americans dead , probably many more, and counting.

He needs to come clean, bring justice into this and force Trump to fire him. Else, he is an accomplice. It is that simple.

Trump is a monster and anyone who celebrates him enable his monstruosity. ( Don't buy Goya products)
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7730 on: July 17, 2020, 10:14:32 AM »
Force Trump to fire him

I think you are being unfair, Archimid.

Ask yourself the question if you want Fauci or a random trump goon in this position. Because this is the alternative.

Trump turns everything he touches into brown stinking liquid shit. This is a trump problem, not a scientist problem. Please don't fall into this trap.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7731 on: July 17, 2020, 10:51:49 AM »
It is likely entirely MALE for which mortality is DOUBLE that of females in most locations or at least 50% greater and as I have also said the population is actually probably skewed ELDERLY (why would there be fewer old people in jail? people die in jail because they get life sentences and rot there and men are 100% of the population).

Do some people live on a planet where old prisoners are released to nursing homes?!?! Like what??? Do you think they don't just leave them in there to die? lol

And then compound ^ factors with lack of sunlight / Vit D. There you go. Dead people. Wow, big surprise.

R U serious???

Prison demographics in the US:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5603283/#S1title

Inmates are basically 20-50 yr old. See chart:



This is definitely a much much younger population than the normal with very few above 60 and 70 (almost none)! So 0,4% mortality is pretty serious in this cohort

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7732 on: July 17, 2020, 11:34:45 AM »
It is likely entirely MALE for which mortality is DOUBLE that of females in most locations or at least 50% greater and as I have also said the population is actually probably skewed ELDERLY (why would there be fewer old people in jail? people die in jail because they get life sentences and rot there and men are 100% of the population).

Do some people live on a planet where old prisoners are released to nursing homes?!?! Like what??? Do you think they don't just leave them in there to die? lol

And then compound ^ factors with lack of sunlight / Vit D. There you go. Dead people. Wow, big surprise.

R U serious???

Prison demographics in the US:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5603283/#S1title

Inmates are basically 20-50 yr old. See chart:



This is definitely a much much younger population than the normal with very few above 60 and 70 (almost none)! So 0,4% mortality is pretty serious in this cohort
Your study ends in 2004 and if the 1986->04 change is extrapolated to 2020 it only validates my point further. Also I think he is in the Philippines.

In fact your study illustrates an explosion of the inmate population from 35-50 from 1979-2004. It literally quadrupled or whatever. So IDK what you are trying to prove but your evidence refutes your point...

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7733 on: July 17, 2020, 12:31:03 PM »
Force Trump to fire him

I think you are being unfair, Archimid.

Ask yourself the question if you want Fauci or a random trump goon in this position. Because this is the alternative.

Trump turns everything he touches into brown stinking liquid shit. This is a trump problem, not a scientist problem. Please don't fall into this trap.
That's right. The head of public health organization is not supposed to quit his job during a pandemic, just because his boss is an incompetent lying fool. That's a good reason to stay.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7734 on: July 17, 2020, 12:43:33 PM »
On Fauci.

Why is he being celebrated?

Watch the TWiV episode and see how he talks with other experts.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7735 on: July 17, 2020, 01:45:49 PM »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7736 on: July 17, 2020, 01:46:12 PM »
It might be that Fauci had good intentions and was trapped in a difficult situation, but even if that is true, his good intentions meant jack shit when he let trump sabotage the response.

He lied about masks becasue Trump didn't want masking to interrupt the economy. At every single and crucial step of the way, he has been there kow towing to the tyrant, covering for him, being an accomplice to Trump by silence and action. The result, at least 140k American deaths and climbing fast.

He can get redemption, but good lord he better come clean, because he has a heckuva lot of people in his list and the admin plan is to keep adding to that list as if life was disposable.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7737 on: July 17, 2020, 02:03:53 PM »
he let trump sabotage the response.

Theodor W. Adorno said "Es gibt kein richtiges Leben im Falschen." (there is no correct life in the wrong). That's a motto i follow personally. So i'm, in general, on your side of the argument here.

But, in this case, the alternative is worse and this can't be discussed away.

Quote
He lied about masks becasue Trump didn't want masking to interrupt the economy.

He did what a good scientist does: Looking at the evidence. And the evidence for mask-wearing at the beginning just wasn't there.

But let's also look at the alternatives at hand during that time. If he told people to wear masks back then, this would have been disastrous for the healthcare workers. We discussed that.

Quote
covering for him

I have a different impression. I feel that within his boundaries, he opposed Trump. Can you provide an example that definitely qualifies as 'covering for trump'?

Quote
The result, at least 140k American deaths and climbing fast.

I'm pretty sure, there would be even more deaths by now with a trump goon in this position.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7738 on: July 17, 2020, 02:13:56 PM »
Perfect is the enemy of the good. Better with Fauci there in Trump hell than without Fauci.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7739 on: July 17, 2020, 02:34:50 PM »
Perfect is the enemy of the good. Better with Fauci there in Trump hell than without Fauci.
Perhaps that was the decision Fauci made - to try to reduce the harm Trump/Pennce and acolytes (e.g. that weirdo scumbag Navarro) have and are dong even at harm to his personal integrity.

Now he is out of Trump's  tent he has no reason not to piss into it. I think the White House have reason to be worried.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7740 on: July 17, 2020, 02:57:23 PM »
Over half of coronavirus patients in Spain have developed neurological problems, studies show

Quote
Results: Of 841 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (mean age 66.4 years, 56.2% men) 57.4% developed some form of neurological symptom. Nonspecific symptoms such as myalgias (17.2%), headache (14.1%), and dizziness (6.1%) were present mostly in the early stages of infection. Anosmia (4.9%) and dysgeusia (6.2%) tended to occur early (60% as the first clinical manifestation) and were more frequent in less severe cases. Disorders of consciousness occurred commonly (19.6%), mostly in older patients and in severe and advanced COVID-19 stages. Myopathy (3.1%), dysautonomia (2.5%), cerebrovascular diseases (1.7%), seizures (0.7%), movement disorders (0.7%), encephalitis (n=1), Guillain-Barré syndrome (n=1), and optic neuritis (n=1) were also reported, but less frequent. Neurological complications were the main cause of death in 4.1% of all deceased study subjects.

Link >> https://n.neurology.org/content/early/2020/06/01/WNL.0000000000009937

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7741 on: July 17, 2020, 03:05:43 PM »
By removing data from the CDC, the public will no longer have access to legitimate information regarding the coronavirus.   


The numbers from the US are no longer reliable, and to be honest, it makes little sense to continue discussing them. 



blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7742 on: July 17, 2020, 03:09:00 PM »
Harpy, gladly, for now, the public outrage was big enough for them to backtrack on the idea already.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7743 on: July 17, 2020, 03:13:35 PM »
I read that the CDC put the information back on the website, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's not getting filtered through the trump administration first.


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7744 on: July 17, 2020, 03:15:57 PM »
True!

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7745 on: July 17, 2020, 03:18:41 PM »
At this point it seems reasonable to expect a plateauing of cases and deaths.

Wow, how coincidental!  Thanks Trump, you followed Brazil and China's strategy of curing the virus by manipulating the data.

According to this article, the data is not reliable any longer, that's why the CDC removed it from their website.  If the CDC doesn't find the information reliable, we shouldn't either.

We should really consider that the data is not entirely reliable going forward, or at least acknowledge that it's obviously subject to higher levels of manipulation by this private company that Trump hired.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/disappearance-of-covid-19-data-from-cdc-website-spurs-outcry/
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 03:24:22 PM by harpy »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7746 on: July 17, 2020, 03:24:50 PM »
It might be that Fauci had good intentions and was trapped in a difficult situation, but even if that is true, his good intentions meant jack shit when he let trump sabotage the response.

He lied about masks becasue Trump didn't want masking to interrupt the economy. 

Masks are not the way. Their effect is small, they are just a way to pack people closer together in order to save the economy.

There exists a fast simple test that would not cost significantly more than a mask. That would suppress the virus very quickly while keeping society going.

The US government or the EU could fund the production.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/opinion/coronavirus-tests.html
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 03:30:49 PM by pietkuip »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7747 on: July 17, 2020, 03:31:04 PM »
Contact Tracing Useless Unless It's Speedy: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-contact-useless-speedy.html

... For conventional contact tracing to be effective, test results need to be delivered within a day of a person developing symptoms, according to the new study, published July 16 in The Lancet Public Health journal.

The best case scenario—no delays and at least 80% of contacts traced—would reduce the rate of transmission from 1.2 to around 0.8, and 80% of onward transmission by a diagnosed person could be prevented.

In the United States, a 24-hour turnaround has become nearly impossible. As cases soar, labs across the nation are falling behind in processing and delivering test results, two of the country's biggest lab companies told CNBC. Even though more testing is available now, it is not enough.

"Despite that dramatic increase [in testing capacity], demand for testing is increasing even faster," Quest Diagnostics told CNBC. "As a result, our average turnaround time for reporting test results is slightly more than one day for our priority 1 patients [hospital patients and health care workers fall in this group]. However, our average turnaround time for all other populations is seven or more days."

...  "with significant increases in testing demand and constraints in the availability of supplies and equipment, the average time to deliver results may now be four to six days from specimen pickup."

One emergency room doctor noted that if test results continue to be delayed, things look bleak.

"This article points out that while social distancing and mask wearing are effective at decreasing the spread of this novel virus, contact tracing will be necessary to decrease it further," said Dr. Teresa Murray Amato, chair of emergency medicine at Long Island Jewish Forest Hills, in Queens, N.Y. "However, unless the time from testing until results are complete in under 24 hours, contact tracing may be futile."

"This study reinforces findings from other modeling studies, showing that contact tracing can be an effective intervention to prevent spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but only if the proportion of contacts traced is high and the process is fast," said study co-author Mirjam Kretzschmar, from University of Utrecht in the Netherlands

Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study The Lancet: Public Heath 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30157-2/fulltext

----------------------------------

... It has been 14 days since Aaron Weeks was tested for COVID-19, and he still doesn't have his test results.

"What's the point?" asked Weeks, 31, of Brooklyn, New York.

He isn't alone in his frustration over the lag in COVID-19 test results, which has been a problem in the U.S. since the beginning of the pandemic.

Elliot Truslow, 30, of Tucson, Arizona, waited nearly a month for test results, which ultimately were negative.

"No one wants to wait 26 days for a test result for a highly infectious deadly disease. No one wants to experience that," Truslow said.

Dr. Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary of health and human services for health, who is overseeing COVID-19 testing, said during a call with reporters Thursday: "We want results back as fast as possible."

He acknowledged that some people have waited at least 12 days for results. "We can't deny that that happens," he said. He called such cases "outliers," however.

Giroir said a "reasonable turnaround time" for test results — from the time tests are ordered to the time the results are in — would be three days.

A study published Thursday in The Lancet Public Health, however, suggested that a delay of just three days makes it nearly impossible to slow the spread of the coronavirus.


-----------------------------------

Data Show Panic and Disorganization Dominate the Study of Covid-19 Drugs
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/06/data-show-panic-and-disorganization-dominate-the-study-of-covid-19-drugs/

... researchers have designed a staggering 1,200 clinical trials aimed at testing treatment and prevention strategies against Covid-19 since the start of January. But a new STAT analysis shows the effort has been marked by disorder and disorganization, with huge financial resources wasted

The analysis, conducted in partnership with Applied XL, a Newlab Venture Studio company, found that one in every six trials was designed to study the malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, which have been shown to have no benefit in hospitalized patients.

The findings show that too often studies are too small to answer questions, lack real control groups, and put too much emphasis on a few potential treatments, as occurred with hydroxychloroquine.

.... “It’s a huge amount of wasted effort and wasted energy when actually a bit of coordination and collaboration could go a long way and answer a few questions,”
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 08:33:58 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7748 on: July 17, 2020, 04:38:48 PM »
The Journal of the American Medical Association published a study of Italian 143 patients (average age 56) discharged from the hospital after 'recovery' from COVID-19. Two months later, only 13% were symptom-free. 87.4% reported persistence of at least 1 symptom, particularly fatigue and dyspnea (labored breathing). Worsened quality of life was observed among 44.1% of patients.

Quote
From April 21 to May 29, 2020, 179 patients were potentially eligible for the follow-up post–acute care assessment; 14 individuals (8%) refused to participate and 22 had a positive test result. Thus, 143 patients were included. The mean age was 56.5 (SD, 14.6) years (range, 19-84 years), and 53 (37%) were women. During hospitalization, 72.7% of participants had evidence of interstitial pneumonia. The mean length of hospital stay was 13.5 (SD, 9.7) days; 21 patients (15%) received noninvasive ventilation and 7 patients (5%) received invasive ventilation. The characteristics of the study population are summarized in the Table.

Patients were assessed a mean of 60.3 (SD, 13.6) days after onset of the first COVID-19 symptom; at the time of the evaluation, only 18 (12.6%) were completely free of any COVID-19–related symptom, while 32% had 1 or 2 symptoms and 55% had 3 or more. None of the patients had fever or any signs or symptoms of acute illness. Worsened quality of life was observed among 44.1% of patients. The Figure shows that a high proportion of individuals still reported fatigue (53.1%), dyspnea (43.4%), joint pain, (27.3%) and chest pain (21.7%).

Link >> https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7749 on: July 17, 2020, 05:13:24 PM »
Georgia Governor Sues Atlanta Mayor to Block City's Mask Mandate
https://www.axios.com/georgia-governor-atlanta-mask-mandate-2d4dc356-3cc5-4e13-96c2-31cc64f78e01.html

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's (R) office filed a lawsuit Thursday in an effort to block Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms from enforcing a citywide mask mandate.

The big picture: The lawsuit comes a day after Kemp banned cities and counties from implementing mask mandates, voiding such orders implemented by at least 15 local governments. Kemp argues that the state's policy, which recommends but does not require masks in public, should override local policies

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Anti-Mask Protesters' New Weapon: Wearing Masks That Offer No COVID-19 Protection
https://www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/investigations/13-investigates/13-investigates-anti-mask-protestors-turn-to-mesh-yarn-crochet-masks-covid-coronavirus/531-5350260c-d6b1-4bd8-857e-860fe84e0f52

Face masks made of mesh, crochet (yarn) or lace are now popular items being offered by online retailers.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late