Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 59

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 1710959 times)

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7950 on: July 27, 2020, 12:10:06 PM »
Interesting table in that FT article see below.

Chile 9th on 'excess deaths per million people' but as high as 4th on 'Total excess deaths relative to historic average for same dates (as a %)'

Must be a young population to have relatively low historic average of deaths?
Yet badly hit with excess deaths.

Ecuador and Peru also swap 1st and 2nd places by notable margins

Tom_Mazanec

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7951 on: July 27, 2020, 03:25:38 PM »

Is this an actual specific person?

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7952 on: July 27, 2020, 03:43:10 PM »
The death cult that is the global economy trudges on, chronic illness, brain damage, etc., just all part of the cost of doing business.

Government manipulation of data is the go-to method for controlling this virus, because the coronavirus impossible to eliminate and represents permanent change in our lives.

The US data has conveniently curved and flattened.

Exactly what was predicted a week and a half ago when the data began to be manipulated.



vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7953 on: July 27, 2020, 05:11:30 PM »

Is this an actual specific person?
It's a cartoon

--------------------------------

Trump’s Latest Coronavirus Strategy: Hope Americans Learn to ‘Live With’ It
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/07/trumps-coronavirus-plan-americans-learn-to-live-with-it.html

President Trump has spent months wishing away the coronavirus. But with cases spiking and the U.S. death toll approaching 130,000, that clearly hasn’t worked. So his administration has a new plan: convince people to just “live with” the virus.

The administration is “crafting messages” meant to “convince Americans that they can live with the virus,” the Washington Post reports. They want kids back in school, people back at work, and a certain level of viral death to be an accepted cost of American life:

... White House officials also hope Americans will grow numb to the escalating death toll and learn to accept tens of thousands of new cases a day, according to three people familiar with the White House’s thinking, who requested anonymity to reveal internal deliberations. Americans will “live with the virus being a threat,” in the words of one of those people, a senior administration official.

There are some obvious flaws in this strategy. For starters, convincing people to “live with” tens of thousands of new cases and hundreds of new deaths a day will require convincing them that there’s no other choice. Other countries prove that’s not true. Indeed, differences across states show that decisions by leaders have the power to shape the trajectory of the outbreak.

-------------------------------------

Trump's National Security Adviser Tests Positive for Covid-19
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/27/coronavirus-trump-national-security-advisor-robert-obrien-tests-positive.html

President Donald Trump's national security adviser, Robert O'Brien, has tested positive for Covid-19, according to an official familiar with what happened.

O'Brien's diagnosis marks the highest-ranking Trump administration official known to have tested positive. It's unclear when O'Brien last met with Trump. Their last public appearance together was over two weeks ago during a visit to US Southern Command in Miami on July 10.

O'Brien, one of Trump's top aides, recently returned from Europe, where he and his top deputy met with officials from the UK, France, Germany and Italy.

A source familiar said O'Brien was last in the office last Thursday, when he abruptly left the White House.

Several National Security Council staffers told CNN that they weren't informed that O'Brien tested positive and learned of the news from media reports.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7954 on: July 27, 2020, 06:39:04 PM »
'The Whole Church Has Got It, Just About': Dozens With Covid-19 After Alabama Baptist Revival
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/27/coronavirus-alabama-covid-19-baptist-church-revival

More than 40 people were infected with the coronavirus after attending a multi-day revival event at a north Alabama Baptist church, according to the congregation’s pastor.

“The whole church has got it, just about,” Pastor Daryl Ross of Warrior Creek Missionary Baptist church in Marshall county told AI.com.

The pastor said churchgoers, including himself, tested positive after a series of religious services featuring a guest pastor over several days last week.

Ross said the services were shut down by Friday after one of the members who attended tested positive for the virus. The member presented no symptoms, but got tested when several of his co-workers received positive tests, according to the pastor.

Over the weekend, dozens more fell ill, Ross said, adding: “I’ve got church members sick everywhere.”

“We knew what we were getting into. We knew the possibilities.”

... Masks were not required, the newspaper reported.

“We let everybody do what they felt like. If you were comfortable shaking hands, you shook hands. If you didn’t, you didn’t,” the pastor said.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7956 on: July 28, 2020, 11:56:03 AM »
COVID-19 immunotypes


Tom_Mazanec

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7957 on: July 28, 2020, 12:56:19 PM »
With America’s enemies seeing how a virus disrupts our society, will they try to make their own germs? C-19 is natural but the next one may be artificial.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7958 on: July 28, 2020, 01:16:56 PM »
Bioterrorism is indeed a thing we should be aware of. It's not easily done though. There are too many variables at play no one can account for (i.e. what do you do when your target just stays home, wears masks, etc.). If you deliberately want to destroy a foreign country, you might end up killing your own people. It's just a very ineffective, random weapon that introduces a myriad of unintended consequences.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2449
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1017
  • Likes Given: 1045
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7959 on: July 28, 2020, 04:20:12 PM »
Last update from my hospital stay ..
  on Sunday I got talking to a nurse re COVID ..  I discovered that he had been in the covid wards until Thursday . I was shocked . Turns out NHS policy is a constant rotation of all staff .. from consultant to cleaners between COVID wards and the rest of the NHS . b.c.
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 580
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7960 on: July 28, 2020, 04:28:12 PM »
Last update from my hospital stay ..
  on Sunday I got talking to a nurse re COVID ..  I discovered that he had been in the covid wards until Thursday . I was shocked . Turns out NHS policy is a constant rotation of all staff .. from consultant to cleaners between COVID wards and the rest of the NHS . b.c.
I thought only the US was evil or maybe i am just reading the same garbage from the same posters ad nauseum.....


Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7961 on: July 28, 2020, 04:36:52 PM »
Vitamin D Deficiency is correlated with a host of diseases, including Covid 19. However, Vitamin d supplementation is not a cure or even treatment of those diseases.

If Vitamin D makes people suceptible to C19, then knowing when  people will be the most suceptible is vital.

Vitamin D (25OHD) Serum Seasonality in the United States

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065785

Quote
Vitamin D is an important micronutrient for health. Hypovitaminosis D is thought to play a role in the seasonality of a number of diseases and adverse health conditions. To refine hypotheses about the links between vitamin D and seasonal diseases, good estimates of the cyclicality of serum vitamin D are necessary.


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 580
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7962 on: July 28, 2020, 05:19:39 PM »
Vitamin D Deficiency is correlated with a host of diseases, including Covid 19. However, Vitamin d supplementation is not a cure or even treatment of those diseases.

If Vitamin D makes people suceptible to C19, then knowing when  people will be the most suceptible is vital.

Vitamin D (25OHD) Serum Seasonality in the United States

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065785

Quote
Vitamin D is an important micronutrient for health. Hypovitaminosis D is thought to play a role in the seasonality of a number of diseases and adverse health conditions. To refine hypotheses about the links between vitamin D and seasonal diseases, good estimates of the cyclicality of serum vitamin D are necessary.



This is why WITHOUT a vaccine that truly works, herd immunity with mass infection during summer is the absolute best strategy one could hope for.

Areas that avoided both the end of the spring wave AND the summer wave will have populations extremely vulnerable to the autumnal wave which will strike when Vit D is low. Quarantines etc will not stop spread as Argentina, Chile, and Australia now confirm. Europe is not New Zealand, the virus is likely still spreading within the immigrant quarters of most cities (as it did in Singapore, Melbourne, etc), and come 9/15 when pop-wide Vit D levels begin to plunge and the weather changes, it is going to explode.

It is not inconceivable that many cities could have total population fatality rates in excess of NYC, and I do believe most of those places will be in Europe.

Summertime Vitamin D sufficiency is hypothesized to have been responsible for the .9% CFR doubling to 2.2% come September / October during Spanish Flu. I believe COVID will debunk the idea that this was a "mutation" that occurred simultaneously globally (? allegedly the troops brought it home, I disagree). It was the sun falling out of the sky and the changing weather encouraging mass spread.

Also, as others have mentioned, it is quite possible that, when suffering from COVID, a hospital is the very worst place you could be due to proximity to other patients / enhancing viral load.

Florifulgurator

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 745
  • Virtual world alter ego / अवतार of Martin Gisser
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 236
  • Likes Given: 368
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7963 on: July 28, 2020, 06:32:22 PM »
Last update from my hospital stay ..
  on Sunday I got talking to a nurse re COVID ..  I discovered that he had been in the covid wards until Thursday . I was shocked . Turns out NHS policy is a constant rotation of all staff .. from consultant to cleaners between COVID wards and the rest of the NHS . b.c.
Looks like a multiplicator type system bug. Homo Sapiens and the statistics of the exponential function - the test is not over.

"The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or committed communist, but rather people for whom the difference between facts and fiction, true and false, no longer exists." ~ Hannah Arendt
"The Force can have a strong influence on the weak minded." ~ Obi-Wan Kenobi

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7964 on: July 28, 2020, 07:39:47 PM »
Of course, this could just be a coincidence...


bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 580
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7965 on: July 28, 2020, 08:00:21 PM »
Of course, this could just be a coincidence...


If the same person tests positive multiple times on multiple days and they are counted thusly (as per the CDC method) is that actually representative of reality?

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7966 on: July 28, 2020, 11:17:24 PM »
... Coincidence? I Think Not!

Thanks for that bk


------------------

Twitter Limits Donald Trump Jr's Account for Posting Covid-19 Misinformation
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/28/donald-trump-jr-twitter-restricted-hydroxychloroquine

President’s son had shared a viral video published by Breitbart which contained false claims about hydroxychloroquine

YouTube and Facebook removed the video before Trump Jr’s father, the president, shared it in a series of retweets on Monday night. Twitter removed the video, also warning users of the potential risks of using hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19.

Dr Immanuel warned Facebook against taking down the footage, lest God begin causing computer problems for the company

https://mobile.twitter.com/stella_immanuel/status/1287951663135952896

The video in question featured Dr Stella Immanuel, a physician from Houston, Texas, speaking on the steps of the US Capitol in Washington, surrounded by members of a rightwing doctors’ group.

Immanuel made baseless claims about coronavirus including hailing hydroxychloroquine as a “cure”, even though the anti-malaria drug which has been repeatedly touted by the president, has not been found to be an effective treatment.

The Houston doctor has also dismissed mounting evidence that face masks substantially help limit the spread of coronavirus.

According to the Daily Beast, Immanuel is a pediatrician and religious minister who has made other outlandish claims, including that some gynecological problems are caused by dreams of having sex with witches or demons.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believes-in-alien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine

------------------------------------

Trump Pushes Anti-Malaria Drug, Fauci Checks Him
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/coronavirus-trump-pushes-anti-malaria-drug-fauci-checks-200728130002239.html

A week after appearing to project a more serious tone about the coronavirus, President Donald Trump is back to pushing unproven claims that an anti-malaria drug is an effective treatment and challenging the credibility of the nation's leading infectious disease expert.

---------------------------------

No Indication New Coronavirus Is Seasonal: WHO
https://reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24T16U

The spread of the novel coronavirus does not appear to be impacted by seasonality, the World Health Organization has said, warning against false beliefs that summer is safer.

"Season does not seem to be affecting the transmission of this virus," WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told reporters in a virtual briefing.

Margaret Harris repeated that message in a virtual briefing in Geneva. "We are in the first wave. It's going to be one big wave. It's going to go up and down a bit.

She pointed out that some of the hardest-hit countries are currently in the middle of different seasons.

 ... "People are still thinking about seasons. What we all need to get our heads around is this is a new virus and...this one is behaving differently," she said.

"Summer is a problem. This virus likes all weather."
« Last Edit: July 29, 2020, 08:58:19 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gandul

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7967 on: July 28, 2020, 11:24:57 PM »
The WHO revelations are amazing. Only that they come when everybody has noted them.

Nothing like the Bible...

gandul

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7968 on: July 28, 2020, 11:41:50 PM »
Here we go again...

Rodius

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7969 on: July 29, 2020, 01:54:06 AM »
A bit of humor....

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 439
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7970 on: July 29, 2020, 02:01:24 AM »
Vitamin D Deficiency is correlated with a host of diseases, including Covid 19. However, Vitamin d supplementation is not a cure or even treatment of those diseases.

If Vitamin D makes people suceptible to C19, then knowing when  people will be the most suceptible is vital.

Will not stop you getting it but optimum supplement boosting immune system and giving a chance of a milder virus.

Vitamin D, Science

Dr John Campbell video link below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv4iINxf4IM&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR38_bNmojNhnv53OrBtDxFYnkfFs2yzWtTci7UbjQlBi2mego7QFlupyEU
« Last Edit: July 29, 2020, 02:28:12 AM by glennbuck »

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7971 on: July 29, 2020, 02:30:45 AM »
Oh yeah. I’ve been following the good doctor from the beginning of the pandemic and have linked him several times in this thread. He is informative and honest. An example of outstanding scientific communication. We need more people like him.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2514
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 924
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7972 on: July 29, 2020, 08:11:12 AM »
The WHO says  it is not seasonal. Considering that they were wrong about basically everything about the virus, I say it is seasonal. (although 4 months ago I was very much convinced that it is NOT seasonal but all data point otherwise, just take a look at the difference between southern and northern US states and take a look at the numbers from SH Latam, esp Argentina where despite a lockdown it is pretty much out of control...also India with the monsoon rains)

kassy

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2052
  • Likes Given: 1988
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7973 on: July 29, 2020, 08:44:46 AM »
'More than half of Mumbai slum-dwellers had Covid-19'

More than half the residents of slums in three areas in India's commercial capital, Mumbai, tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus, a new survey has found.

Only 16% of people living outside slums in the same areas were found to be exposed to the infection.

The results are from a random testing of some 7,000 people in three densely packed areas in early July.

Mumbai has reported more than 110,000 cases and 6,187 deaths as of 28 July.

The survey was carried out by the city's municipality, the government think-tank Niti Aayog and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research.

It found that 57% of the people tested in slum areas of Chembur, Matunga and Dahisar had been exposed to the novel coronavirus.

Some 1.5 million people live in these three areas located in the western, eastern and central parts of the city.

Scientists involved with the study told the BBC that the results pointed to a number of things about the prevalence of the infection in one of India's worst-hit cities.

For one, the virus has spread more widely than what was earlier believed in the city's slums, where more than half of Mumbai's 12.5 million people live.

The high prevalence rate could partly be explained by the fact that residents share common facilities such as toilets.

...

The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 125
  • Likes Given: 305
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7974 on: July 29, 2020, 10:27:41 AM »
The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

Interesting. This is for a population that is younger and less obese. And they must have immune systems that are constantly exposed to all kind of pathogens.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2020, 10:48:17 AM by pietkuip »

greylib

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 170
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7975 on: July 29, 2020, 11:13:47 AM »
The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

Interesting. This is for a population that is younger and less obese. And they must have immune systems that are constantly exposed to all kind of pathogens.
And possibly because they live mainly outdoors, or in very airy shacks:
... one big one is tied to a bar in Hillegom. Interestingly enough the bars there had to close the windows and doors at 23 hrs to reduce noise and all the cases in the cluster are from 23 hrs or later so closed spaces are indeed bad.
Ventilate!
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 125
  • Likes Given: 305
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7976 on: July 29, 2020, 12:01:16 PM »

Interesting. This is for a population that is younger and less obese. And they must have immune systems that are constantly exposed to all kind of pathogens.
And possibly because they live mainly outdoors, or in very airy shacks:
... one big one is tied to a bar in Hillegom. Interestingly enough the bars there had to close the windows and doors at 23 hrs to reduce noise and all the cases in the cluster are from 23 hrs or later so closed spaces are indeed bad.
Ventilate!

Also interesting, the connection to the hour of closing windows of that bar in Hillegom.

But people in slums live close together, that is why so many get contaminated. It is the infection fatality ratio that seems much lower than in other populations. It would be interesting to know exactly why. It might be their immune system, because it is the immune reaction that kills.

gandul

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7977 on: July 29, 2020, 12:54:01 PM »
The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

Interesting. This is for a population that is younger and less obese. And they must have immune systems that are constantly exposed to all kind of pathogens.
.
And I bet slum habitants lack many things but not Vitamin D.

And in India hydroxychloroquine is abundant and being used in hospitals for COVID.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7978 on: July 29, 2020, 01:28:46 PM »
Quote
And in India hydroxychloroquine is abundant and being used in hospitals for COVID

All the evidence I've seen says Hydroxy chloroquine does not prevent or cure Covid.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

greylib

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 170
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7979 on: July 29, 2020, 01:31:01 PM »
The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

Interesting. This is for a population that is younger and less obese. And they must have immune systems that are constantly exposed to all kind of pathogens.
.
And I bet slum habitants lack many things but not Vitamin D.

And in India hydroxychloroquine is abundant and being used in hospitals for COVID.
The original post was that the slum dwellers had been infected, but showed few or no symptoms. They wouldn't have been given hydroxychloroquine, so I'm not entirely sure what your point is.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

Andre Koelewijn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7980 on: July 29, 2020, 02:28:35 PM »
The original post was that the slum dwellers had been infected, but showed few or no symptoms. They wouldn't have been given hydroxychloroquine, so I'm not entirely sure what your point is.
Malaria is endemic in Mumbai. (Hydroxy)choloroquine originally is a common and cheap treatment against malaria and it may be used heavily even in those slums.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2514
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 924
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7981 on: July 29, 2020, 03:05:58 PM »
RE: Mumbai slum

Monsoon starts in June. Monsoon is also the usual period in the tropics for flu, see:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4193176/

"influenza positivity peaks in New Delhi (28.66°N) in July–September (shown on chart)"

Why this is so I am still not sure, but it seems that R had to be skyhigh in Mumbai in the past few weeks...

(BTW the above study is very interesting as it shows that northerly, cold Srinagar has a flu season from Nov till March, like the US or Europe, while monsoon-driven Delhi has it July-Sept

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7982 on: July 29, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7983 on: July 29, 2020, 03:16:35 PM »
Of course, this could just be a coincidence...


If the same person tests positive multiple times on multiple days and they are counted thusly (as per the CDC method) is that actually representative of reality?

The Trump admin is clearly manipulating the data.

Even the CDC will not have access to the information.

Day after day of record breaking numbers suddenly stop as soon as Trump controls the data released to the public.

Andre Koelewijn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7984 on: July 29, 2020, 03:54:22 PM »
The Trump admin is clearly manipulating the data.

Even the CDC will not have access to the information.

Day after day of record breaking numbers suddenly stop as soon as Trump controls the data released to the public.
Why do you think hospitals were simultaneously forbidden to continue delivering their data to the CDC?

The only solution I see here to obtain accurate data, at least for the number of deaths, is by collecting and adding all data community by community. Until the "anti-facist" federal 'Sturmtruppen' will also block this (why am I repeatedly reminded of what happened in Germany around 1920 and the early 1930s?)

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7985 on: July 29, 2020, 03:58:03 PM »
Wait, what?? ???

What has the Weimarer Republik to do with anything?

Tom_Mazanec

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7986 on: July 29, 2020, 04:07:49 PM »
Maybe he meant the mid 1930s?

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7987 on: July 29, 2020, 04:09:05 PM »
Florida and Texas are now masking and distancing and it is the peak of summer. A slowdown should be expected.

That said, if the federal government was manipulating the data they would get away with but only by doing three things:

1. Keep refrigerated trailers at hand at all times and the furnaces going full swing. Keep it silent and efficient, make sure the families are as unaware of each other as possible.

2. Anyone who shows signs of severe C19 should be given a bed, but incommunicated from family. As long as there is food and relative cleanliness it will pass for a health service. If it doesn't refer to 1

3. Keep the media disconnected and highly supressed.


If they do this, C19 will be over in 6 months like magic. Hundreds of thousands  will die ( in the US), maybe millions if winter increases deadliness. But no one will ever know.

Families split in two groups. Those too hurt to do anything about the death of their loved ones or life long loss of lung function and those who being complicit deflect the fault and pain onto others so they don't have to face responsibility. With a bit of media magic the number of deaths can be come a just a statistic.


There. Gone like magic. This is what they really mean and what they have been aiming to do from the beginning. No masks, no tests, no PPE, it's a hoax. All designed to increase the speed of infection. Because the final number of fatalities never mattered to any of them. Only their wealth.

Oh, and I'm a chicken little coward because a half a million American deaths sound like too much.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7988 on: July 29, 2020, 04:19:06 PM »
Maybe he meant the mid 1930s?

Must be. :)

Andre Koelewijn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7989 on: July 29, 2020, 04:25:54 PM »
Wait, what?? ???

What has the Weimarer Republik to do with anything?
Nothing.
But before that was well established, there were all kinds of riots in the capital city of Berlin. There was a reason the Weimar republic had its parliament not in Berlin, but somewhere else.

Source for this and the early 1930s: several sections of the German historical museum in Berlin which I visited last August. I was astonished to see what had already happened before 1933 - at school in the Netherlands, I have only been taught a simple version, with a special role for Van der Lubbe setting the Reichstag on fire.

But this may better be a separate thread: 'The dismantling of the American Democracy'

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7990 on: July 29, 2020, 05:54:01 PM »
States Are Running Out of Doctors and Nurses as COVID-19 Surges
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/states-are-running-out-of-doctors-and-nurses-as-covid-19-surges/

It’s not just beds and medical supplies—hospitals in multiple states are running low on doctors and nurses to tend to the deluge of COVID-19 patients.

Military medical personnel arrived in Los Angeles County Friday to reinforce staffing at two area hospitals struggling amid the pandemic, according to a report in the Los Angeles Times. The Department of Defense deployed the Air Force medical teams after state officials put in a request through the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-27/military-medical-teams-arrive-in-two-los-angeles-county-hospitals

The Times noted that six other hospitals in the state have already received military back-up in their fight against the novel coronavirus.

Brian Ferguson, a spokesperson for the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, told the Times that the additional medical personnel is “basically to provide surge staffing to hospitals in need.” He noted that the struggling hospitals are facing surges in patients and also may be short-staffed, potentially because staff have, themselves, become infected with the pandemic coronavirus.

Further, the two Los Angeles County hospitals receiving military staff wrote in a statement that they will use the personnel “to support operation of hospital critical care units amidst growing COVID-19 hospitalizations.”

Several other states may soon be in similar situations. Arizona and Texas are projected to face shortages of doctors who work in intensive care units next month, according to a recent report by researchers at George Washington University. Researchers estimate that more than 100 percent of the states’ intensive care doctors will be needed to care for COVID-19 patients alone in August.

Eleven other states are facing staffing strain, the researchers also reported. That means more than 50 percent of the states’ intensive care doctors may be required to support COVID-19 patients in the coming months.

https://www.gwhwi.org/uploads/4/3/3/5/43358451/about_the_estimator_07.23.20.pdf

“The news media [have] largely focused on hospitalizations and the danger of depleting the ICU bed supply, but staffing these beds may be an even greater problem,” the researchers write in the report. “New beds can be set up in other hospital units, or even outside the hospital setting, but it takes time to find highly specialized ICU professionals.”

-----------------------------------

'The Hotspot of a Hotspot of a Hotspot': Coronavirus Takes Heavy Toll In South Texas
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/29/texas-hidalgo-county-border-mexico-coronavirus

Seventy-two death notices sprawled across an entire page of the Monitor newspaper in Hidalgo county recently.

The small-print entries, stacked in five tidy columns, didn’t mention Covid-19. But 27 residents of the south Texas community had died from the virus that day, 22 the day before, and 35 the day before that.

That was earlier this month, but things have worsened since.

... At Kreidler’s funeral home, corpses wrapped in sheets, then double-bagged and wrapped again lay across tables in the preparation room because there’s no space left in the cooler. The crematory is fully booked up to 10 days in advance.

Already, 467 members of the community have died from Covid-19, according to the county, most of them since Texas reopened in May. But the state government has actively thwarted efforts to go back into lockdown, prioritizing economic vitality even as the death toll skyrockets.

... In a matter of weeks, Ivan Melendez, Hidalgo county’s health authority and a practicing clinician, has put his sixth-grade teacher on life support, opened up a body bag to play a son’s farewell video for a patient who had already died, and stumbled upon a gravely ill nurse he’d known for 30 years, whom he didn’t even recognize at first glance. Harrowing personal moments abound, as do thorny gray areas.

“There’s a moral, ethical dilemma at every place that we turn,” he said.

Melendez recalled recently encountering a critically ill patient with an alarmingly low pulse. He tried to warn someone, but nurses informed him that a different doctor had already decided not to intervene because they “didn’t expect for [the patient] to survive”.

... Hospital emergency departments are struggling to cope, so other wings have morphed into Covid units – even when they aren’t equipped to do so. One health care worker at DHR Health in Edinburg, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, described patients in hallways, two people to a room and “everything askew at all times” in a rehabilitation facility that has been converted amid the health emergency. The building isn’t made to provide so much life-sustaining oxygen, they said, and one time, it simply shut off.

-----------------------------------

Inside A Rio Grande Hospital With No ICU During A COVID-19 Outbreak
https://www.keranews.org/post/inside-rio-grande-hospital-no-icu-during-covid-19-outbreak

Doctors at Starr County Memorial, a small hospital three miles from the border, recently gave us a sense of what it's like inside.

... Carlos Paris is one of three physicians on duty at Starr County Memorial, and he worked on his day off. All 48 beds there were full. Most of the patients had COVID-19 and were very sick.

"They are all complicated. They are all ICU level patients,"
Dr. Paris said.

This is a problem because the small county hospital in the Rio Grande Valley doesn't have an Intensive Care Unit. They don't have up-to-date ventilators or negative pressure rooms where airborne organisms are filtered out.

"The first day I rounded at Starr was about a month ago. I logged on from my computer and it was like a war zone," ... "It was literally a scene of a movie. I logged on, and every single person was running around. These patients were showing up sick, and then just acutely turning the corner and becoming even worse."

"Last week they had somebody they had to transfer to New Mexico because there were no hospital beds available on the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Dallas. They're so backed up," Ghosh said. "It just highlights what kind of a dearth we have for actual resources in terms of ICU care and ICU beds."

Vazquez said the lack of resources also includes basic medical necessities. He said five patients at Starr are waiting to be discharged, but they are stuck at the hospital because they can't get the oxygen they need for their homes.

"You know, when you live in America an oxygen tank or an oxygen concentrator should not be the reason why a patient is not discharged, when you are needing those beds for somebody sicker than you," Vazquez said.

-----------------------------------

Trump Heads to Texas for Fundraiser as Coronavirus Toll Surges
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-trump-texas-20200729-jeieavasyjaaljin34hurvlf2u-story.html

There’s gold in them there Texas oil fields for President Trump, even as COVID-19 levels continue to swell and the aftermath of a nasty hurricane to worry about.

Trump is set to fly to west Texas for a $100,000-a-person fundraiser Wednesday as the GOP faces its most difficult election in decades in the traditionally reliable red state.

[...maybe he can catch a round of golf]



-----------------------------------

Mounting Poisonings, Blindness, Deaths as Toxic Hand Sanitizers Flood Market
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/mounting-poisonings-blindness-deaths-as-toxic-hand-sanitizers-flood-market/

The Food and Drug Administration is renewing warnings this week of dangerous hand sanitizers as it continues to find products that contain toxic methanol—a poisonous alcohol that can cause systemic effects, blindness, and death.

The agency’s growing “do-not-use list” of dangerous sanitizers now includes 87 products. And with the mounting tally, the FDA also says there are rising reports from state health departments and poison control centers of injuries and deaths.

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-updates-hand-sanitizers-methanol

The agency reported that its ongoing testing has found sanitizers containing methanol at levels ranging from 1 percent to 80 percent. No amount of methanol is acceptable, the agency notes. The alcohol, which is metabolized to formaldehyde then to formic acid in the body, can cause systemic toxic effects if ingested, inhaled, or absorbed through the skin. Ingesting just two tablespoons can be fatal to small children, who may be tempted to drink sanitizers within reach. Smaller amounts can lead to permanent blindness.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7991 on: July 29, 2020, 06:22:33 PM »
Texas’ Tally of COVID-19 Deaths Increases 12 % After State Officials Look at Death Certificate Data
https://www.tmc.edu/news/2020/07/coronavirus-connection-a-texas-medical-center-continuing-update/

The Houston Health Department reported 864 new cases of COVID-19 and eight new deaths today, bringing the city’s total to 43,066 cases and 408 deaths.

As a result of Texas health officials changing their reporting method, the revised number of COVID-19 deaths in the state increased by more than 600, showing that more than 12 percent of the total number of deaths had previously gone unreported.

Public health experts raised concerns that many deaths were not being reflected in the state’s official death toll, prompting the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) to revise its approach. DSHS is now using death certificates that indicate COVID-19 as the cause of death to calculate the total fatalities in the state instead of relying on local and regional public health departments to report deaths. Identifying COVID-19 deaths through death certificates will ensure faster and more consistent reporting, the department said.

Compared to the 5,038 deaths the state originally reported on Sunday, the department announced that there are now 5,713 deaths in Texas, including 44 newly reported fatalities, according to death certificate data.

... Houston’s health authority, David Persse, M.D., also reported on the city’s positivity rate, which is currently 23.3 percent. Persse said this is still considered to be “extremely high.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7992 on: July 29, 2020, 08:01:59 PM »
Here’s All The Ridiculous Military Pork Baked Into The Proposed Senate Republican COVID-19 Stimulus Bill
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35168/heres-all-the-ridiculous-military-pork-baked-into-this-proposed-covid-19-bill

The draft $1 trillion spending package includes money for F-35s, warships, attack helicopters, missiles, missile defense projects, and much more.

Yesterday, Senate Republicans unveiled a proposed bill that would authorize a $1 trillion spending package ostensibly to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts it has had, especially economically, across the country this year. The draft law immediately drew criticism for including a raft of line items that seem at best tangentially related to those efforts, while many are not at all, including around $30 billion in defense spending, which would be on top of the more than $705 billion in the proposed defense budget for the 2021 Fiscal Year.

... Partial list of over 50 weapons systems line items ...

Every single line item in the draft bill, including these proposed defense appropriations, is stated to be justified as being "to prevent, prepare for, and respond to coronavirus, domestically or internationally."

The relationship between much of the other spending and managing the ongoing health crisis seems highly dubious, if not outright ludicrous, especially given the continued needs of those on the front lines of the pandemic, as well as the struggles of regular Americans to make ends meet. "Amphibious ships don’t feed hungry children," House Appropriations Committee Chair Nita Lowey, a Democrat from New York, said in her own statement in response to Shelby's spending package.

... If anything, it underscores Washington's addiction to pork-barrel tactics and a never-ending thirst for more military spending.

Have you seen any Apache attack helicopters helping out at hospitals or THAAD missile batteries defending against COVID-19?

Yeah, we haven't either.


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7993 on: July 29, 2020, 08:29:40 PM »
Could Prior Exposure to Common Cold Viruses Affect the Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Symptoms?
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-prior-exposure-common-cold-viruses.html

Universitätsmedizin Berlin and the Max Planck Institute for Molecular Genetics (MPIMG) show that some healthy individuals possess immune cells capable of recognizing the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. The reason for this might be found in prior infections with 'common cold' coronaviruses. Whether or not this cross-reactivity has a protective effect on the clinical course in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 will now be addressed by the 'Charité Corona Cross' study.

For their study, the researchers isolated immune cells from the blood of 18 COVID-19 patients receiving treatment at Charité and confirmed PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2. They also isolated immune cells from the blood of 68 healthy individuals who had never been exposed to the novel coronavirus. The researchers then stimulated these immune cells using small, synthetic fragments of SARS-CoV-2 'spike proteins', the characteristic, crown-like protrusions on the outer surface of coronaviruses which enable the virus to enter human cells.

The researchers subsequently tested whether the T-helper cells would be activated by contact with these protein fragments. They found that this was the case in 15 out of 18 patients with COVID-19 (85%). "This was exactly what we had expected. The immune system in these patients was in the process of fighting this novel virus, and therefore showed the same reaction in vitro."

The team were, however, surprised to find memory T-helper cells capable of recognizing fragments of SARS-CoV-2 in the blood of healthy individuals. They were found in a total of 24 out of 68 healthy individuals tested (35%). In fact, the researchers noticed that the immune cells of COVID-19 patients reacted to different fragments of the viral envelope than the immune cells of healthy individuals. While the T-helper cells of patients recognized the spike protein in its full length, the T-helper cells isolated from healthy individuals were primarily activated by sections of the spike protein which showed similarity to corresponding sections found in the spike proteins of harmless 'common cold' coronaviruses.
Prospective studies will be needed in order to conclusively determine whether previous 'common cold' coronavirus infections confer protection against subsequent infection with SARS-CoV-2—and whether this might explain the high variability in clinical manifestations.

"This suggests that the T-helper cells of healthy individuals react to SARS-CoV-2 because of previous exposure to the endemic 'common cold' coronaviruses," says Dr. Giesecke-Thiel. She goes on to explain: "One of the characteristics of T-helper cells is that they are not only activated by a pathogen with an 'exact fit', but also by pathogens with 'sufficient similarity'." Notably, the researchers were able to show that the T-helper cells isolated from healthy participants who reacted to SARS-CoV-2 were also activated by various 'common cold' coronaviruses—displaying what is known as 'cross-reactivity'.

... In Germany, coronaviruses are responsible for up to 30 percent of all seasonal colds, ... "Current estimates suggest that the average adult will contract an infection caused by one of the four endemic coronaviruses approximately every two to three years," ...

Julian Braun et al, SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells in healthy donors and patients with COVID-19, Nature (2020).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6783
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1047
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7994 on: July 29, 2020, 08:42:54 PM »
Re: low fatality rates in mumbai study

Mandatory BCG vaccination ?

sidd

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2514
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 924
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7995 on: July 29, 2020, 09:47:11 PM »
Re: low fatality rates in mumbai study

Mandatory BCG vaccination ?

sidd

Hardly. Average age in India is 28 years vs USA 38 years, or Uk: 40.

In India 5% of the population is above 65, in the US 16%. That causes the difference. Mortality should likely be 0,2-0,4% in India and it is likely 0,1% in most of Africa based on demographics.

BTW as far as we know 2-3 million in Mumbai have been infected according to serology. They have officially 6000 dead which is 0,2-0,3% of infected. So, everything is perfectly explained by demographics. BCG is a smokescreen

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7996 on: July 29, 2020, 10:13:47 PM »
Texas Republican Rep. Gohmert Tests Positive For COVID-19 After Rebuffing Masks
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/29/896703068/texas-republican-rep-gohmert-tests-positive-for-covid-19-after-rebuffing-masks

Texas Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert, who during the pandemic has repeatedly refused to wear a mask in public, tested positive for the coronavirus illness.

His positive test was caught during a routine screening at the White House, Gohmert said. He was slated to attend a trip to West Texas with President Trump.

Gohmert confirmed the news from his Capitol Hill office, raising further concerns that he returned there infected from the illness as both chambers of Congress are in session. Gohmert claimed he would later quarantine from home for ten days, per advice from the office of the attending physician to Congress, Dr. Brian Monahan.

... Gohmert had participated in Tuesday's high-profile House Judiciary Committee hearing with Attorney General William Barr, and was seen without a mask near Barr and others. A Justice Department spokeswoman said Barr will be tested for the illness on Wednesday.


You're making him look bad

... A second Texas Republican who was supposed to greet Trump in Midland, Texas has tested positive for coronavirus. Conservative Republican House candidate Wesley Hunt tested positive for Covid-19 while he was driving to Midland to greet the president. Hunt said in a tweet he was asymptomatic.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2020, 11:01:41 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 125
  • Likes Given: 305
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7997 on: July 30, 2020, 01:47:45 AM »
One of our local prisons, FCI Lompoc, has almost all of its inmates having tested positive. Four have died so far, there are still inmates in ICU.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tested-federal-inmates-positive-coronavirus/story?id=71275461

This is important news Bruce.

1) 90% of 997 inmates tested positive. 90%. Basically everyone. Say goodbye to dreams of "4 out of 5 have T-cell resistance and don't need antibodies"

2) 4 died out of 997. That is 0,4%. And this populations has very likely fewer old people than the normal population, so true IFr is definitely higher than 0,4%. Say goodbye to dreams of "0,05% IFR" ant the like.

Some more data than those four deaths:

"In American jails and prisons, more than 100,000 people have been infected and at least 802 inmates and correctional officers have died."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

This was higher than I had expected for the age group. Lack of exercise maybe, maybe Vitamin-D insufficiency.

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7998 on: July 30, 2020, 05:04:33 AM »
Irregularities in HHS COVID Reporting Contract Award Process Raises New Questions
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/29/896645314/irregularities-in-covid-reporting-contract-award-process-raises-new-questions

An NPR investigation has found irregularities in the process by which the Trump administration awarded a multi-million dollar contract to a Pittsburgh company to collect key data about Covid-19 from the country's hospitals.

The contract is at the center of a controversy over the Administration's decision to move that data reporting function from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — which has tracked infection information for a range of illnesses for years — to the Department of Health and Human Services.

TeleTracking Technologies, the company that won the contract, has traditionally focused on creating software for hospitals to track patient status. And there are questions about how it came to be responsible for gathering data in the midst of a pandemic.

... Thousands of hospitals had used the CDC system for years to report infection control data. So it raised questions: Why the change? Why now?

The CDC has been tracking these numbers for some 15 years. And while its system isn't perfect — it requires all the information to be entered manually, for example — it is unclear why the government, already underwater with the spread of COVID, didn't decide instead to tinker with the existing system.

Robert R. Redfield, the CDC's director, said the reason HHS chose TeleTracking was because it provided "rapid ways to update the type of data that we're collecting" and that it "reduces the reporting burden," none of which, given the duplication of Kroll's experience around the country, seems to be happening.

The TeleTracking software, for example, requires all the data to be keyed in manually, just like the CDC once did.


... "Up until the switch, we were reporting about 70 elements and we're now at 129," Kroll said, scrolling through a five-page list of the information now required. "I mean, clearly we're in the middle of a pandemic, right? I mean this isn't the type of stuff you try to do in the middle of a pandemic."

An HHS spokesperson said that the COVID response required that they move quickly to implement a new system, "even when more time might be desired. We acknowledge that hospitals were not given significant lead time to prepare for these changes."



No Competition

... Initially, there was confusion about the way HHS awarded the contract to TeleTracking. Public records originally displayed it as a sole-source contract — essentially a no-bid deal.

But after a Senate inquiry and controversy over the mandatory shift to the TeleTracking system, HHS said that there had been a "coding error" and that it had in fact been awarded after a competitive process.

That competitive process, HHS said, is known as a Broad Agency Announcement.

BAAs are essentially call-outs to private industry to provide innovative solutions to general problems in which a simple straightforward solution may not be available — it isn't meant for something like a government database that replaces an existing CDC function.

A standard government contract would usually lay out a series of specific requirements or specifications. Not so with BAAs. By their very nature, they are less competitive than other types of government contracting processes because they may generate an array of solutions that may not necessarily be comparable.

HHS has said that six companies bid for the contract but declines to say who they were or release the evaluations that the department would have done before awarding the contract to TeleTracking.

But NPR reached out to more than 20 of TeleTracking's competitors in the fields of hospital workflow management and infection control data and was unable to find a single company that said it had bid on this contract.

One major company told NPR that it hadn't even heard about the HHS announcement.


There is another wrinkle here. A spokesperson for Zamagias told NPR that HHS reached out to the company directly — by phone — because it knew the company from its hurricane and disaster preparedness work.

It is unclear when that phone call was made.

... The whole process by which TeleTracking came to land a $10.2 million six-month contract, that is 20 times larger than all of their previous contracts combined, in the middle of a pandemic strikes Virginia Canter, Chief Ethics Counsel at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, as out of the ordinary.

It isn't just the use of the BAA. It is that HHS "now requires 6,000 hospitals to enter this data" in what looks like proprietary software, which the federal government may need to pay for in the future, Canter said the current contract ends in September. The Zamagias spokesperson told NPR that TeleTracking hopes for a contract extension — and that potentially means millions of dollars more in the future.

... TeleTracking CEO Michael Zamagias has links to the New York real estate world — and in particular, a firm that financed billions of dollars in projects with the Trump Organization.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3518
  • Likes Given: 754
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7999 on: July 30, 2020, 05:23:04 AM »
U.S. Surpasses 150,000 Coronavirus Deaths
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/coronavirus-live-updates.html



The coronavirus has infected more than 4.39 million people in the U.S. and has killed at least 150,034, according to Johns Hopkins data. The U.S. first surpassed 100,000 deaths in late May and reported its first Covid-19 death on Feb. 29 in Washington state.



... On Tuesday, Texas reported 200 new deaths, hitting a record-high average. There are currently more than 9,500 patients hospitalized with Covid-19 across Texas’ hospitals, a 62% increase from a month ago, according to updated data from the Texas Department of State Health Services

... Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in a tweet that California reported an additional 197 deaths Tuesday, a grim daily record in the state’s death toll. Tuesday’s figure surpassed a previous record of 159 reported in a single day. The state reported an additional 8,755 Covid-19 cases Tuesday, bringing its total to more than 475,300, according to the Department of Public Health.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late