COVID-19

[Paddy]

The life expectancy dip from this in some of the harder-hit, high life expectancy countries, such as the USA, UK, and Spain is going to be interesting. For instance, I expect there'll be more than 3 million deaths in the USA this year (up from 2.84 million in 2018, or 2.81 million in 2017). But how many more than 3 million there will be, and how many of those deaths will be among people under the age of 79, are still very much open questions.

[glennbuck]

Taken together, these data indicate significant environmental contamination in rooms where patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 are housed and cared for, regardless of the degree of symptoms or acuity of illness. Contamination exists in all types of samples: high and low-volume air samples, as well as surface samples including personal items, room surfaces, and toilets. Samples of patient toilets that tested positive for viral RNA are consistent with other reports of viral shedding in stool11. The presence of contamination on personal items is also expected, particularly those items that are routinely handled by individuals in isolation, such as cell phones and remote controls, as well as medical equipment that is in near constant contact with the patient.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69286-3

[blumenkraft]

I don't understand, they found RNA, which is obvious with infected people around.

But did they find actually infectious virus? Am i missing something?

[glennbuck]

I don't understand, they found RNA, which is obvious with infected people around.

But did they find actually infectious virus? Am i missing something?

Here is Dr. Ali Nouri views on the study.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1288534942276780032.html

[pietkuip]

I don't understand, they found RNA, which is obvious with infected people around.

But did they find actually infectious virus? Am i missing something?

Yes, they cultured the virus in cells.

But that was with just two of their samples.

The article is not easy for me to read. Yes, RNA in many places, but PCR is very sensitive. There were large variations in the data. And Dr. Nouri did not help much.

[blumenkraft]

Thanks, Glenn and Piet.

Still, having more questions than answers. Yes, PCR is very sensitive and doesn't mean it's infectious per se.

[Archimid]

So many millions of dollars. Access to the best health care. It didn't matter.

Herman Cain, dead from Coronavirus after attending a Trump rally.

I bet he knew the odds. I bet he knew that with the level of access to healthcare his money can buy he would be just fine. It was a good bet. The odds were in his favor.

[gerontocrat]

Perhaps we in the UK are about to see the price of reopening for the economy's sake.

[blumenkraft]

From the "Leopards now eating their own faces" department.

[vox_mundi]

'We Don't Know': AstraZeneca CEO Says 'Unpredictable' Coronavirus May Require Annual Vaccinations
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/30/astrazeneca-ceo-coronavirus-vaccine-might-require-annual-shots.html

Because of the unpredictability of Covid-19, the pharmaceutical firm raised the possibility that more than one shot might be needed in the future, if their work does prove successful.

"What we know is that most companies are targeting two injections for the initial vaccination and then our own assumption based on what we know from the technology we use with SARS 1 is that the immunity could last 12 months maybe 18 months," Pascal Soriot, chief executive officer of AstraZeneca, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

"But the truth is that we don't know, this virus is very unpredictable," Pascal Soriot, chief executive officer of AstraZeneca, told CNBC.

"If it does work, we will be able to start supplying the vaccine in October, November and our goal is to supply everyone around the world at the same time," he said.

[glennbuck]

Might get people wearing masks. R.I.P

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
3h
BREAKING: Former presidential candidate Herman Cain has died after being hospitalized with COVID-19, his family says - NewsMax

[Neven]

Herman Cain dies at 74

(...)

Calabrese said doctors were hopeful as recently as five days before his death that Cain would make a recovery. However, because Cain previously beat liver cancer, he was considered at high-risk for complications related to COVID-19.

(...)

On the campaign trail, he spoke about being diagnosed in 2006 with stage 4 liver cancer and his doctors giving him slim hope for long-term survival.

[Rodius]

Herman Cain dies at 74

(...)

Calabrese said doctors were hopeful as recently as five days before his death that Cain would make a recovery. However, because Cain previously beat liver cancer, he was considered at high-risk for complications related to COVID-19.

(...)

On the campaign trail, he spoke about being diagnosed in 2006 with stage 4 liver cancer and his doctors giving him slim hope for long-term survival.

It sounds like this...... a person with stage four cancer got hit by a bus and died. But because he had stage four cancer, death by bus doesn't count.

It seems like that person would probably still be alive today if he hadn't caught Covid 19. So Covid killed him.

[Rodius]

I just want to make a comment here for no particular reason.
I live in Melbourne, Australia. We are in the middle of an outbreak of Covid 19, and it isn't even something that registers on the global stage.
The initial outbreak early this year was easily controlled through social distancing, isolation and relatively good management.

Everyone thought we did well, and we did. CV19 looked to be something that, for most people, was not a big deal. But for some it meant hospital and ICU and then death.

My take on it is that CV19 is relatively bad in itself, and bad enough to warrant the shut down given we don't know enough to simply ignore it. Most people will be okay. Most people who die from it have pre existing conditions and are old.... but only if the hospital systems are functioning. If that fails, then the game changes somewhat to kill healthier and younger people.

In this second outbreak, one that is not driven from overseas arrivals but community spread that is untraceable, and it isn't even that bad in global sense, my take is this.

In a few weeks we went from 10s per day to 600 plus per day. Our hospitals are full even at those "low" numbers. Most people in hospital with CV19 are very sick, and the ICU wards are almost full. Nurses and doctors are coming down with CV19 in spite of having protective equipment and training and the human resources we have are stretched already. It has made it into aged care facilities now (25% of them are infected now) and that situation is about to become a nightmare very soon.

This has happened in a city with very good health care, good resourcing, well trained staff, a proactive State Govt and supportive Federal Govt. All it has taken to bring our health care system to breaking point is an average 400 cases per day over the last week, but 1300 in the last two days.

Testing has been huge, something like 1.3 million tests for a population of 5 million people.

CV19 is a problem. Sure, it doesn't severely affect most people, but when it does, it does it hard and over a long period of time... and we are only now learning more about the longer term effects it has.

Melbourne is in week 3 of a fairly tight lockdown with mask wearing compulsory and it is looking like we are losing the fight a bit.

The economy is hurting, people are stressed, it is not nice at all.
While I would like to think that we can just open everything up and let this thing rip through, it isn't the right decision. So many people would die doing that and it wouldnt just be CV19 cases.

Because the hospitals are stressed, elective surgery has been cancelled, administrating meds to very ill people is difficult and they are catching CV19 while in hospital and dying from it.

I am unsure as to why people think CV19 isn't a big deal, or play it down or undermine the severity. Just look at Melbourne, well tested, resourced etc, we know fairly well how many cases we have and the numbers are not all that big, yet we are in trouble in the health services already. If we keep up this 600 plus day stuff for a few more days things are going to start breaking down and the death toll will begin to include people of all ages, not just the over 50s. Younger very sick CV cases do well because of the hospitals, not because the disease isn't all that bad for younger people.

That is my take on this....

https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-emergency-doctors-plea-as-victoria-cases-soar-020007459.html

[blumenkraft]

On the campaign trail, he spoke about being diagnosed in 2006 with stage 4 liver cancer and his doctors giving him slim hope for long-term survival.

That argument works the other way around as well, Neven.

The dude was so bloody strong, he was even able to defeated cancer. And now Covid defeated him.

See how this whole 'died of' vs. 'died with' debate is bogus?

[bbr2315]

Herman Cain dies at 74

(...)

Calabrese said doctors were hopeful as recently as five days before his death that Cain would make a recovery. However, because Cain previously beat liver cancer, he was considered at high-risk for complications related to COVID-19.

(...)

On the campaign trail, he spoke about being diagnosed in 2006 with stage 4 liver cancer and his doctors giving him slim hope for long-term survival.

It sounds like this...... a person with stage four cancer got hit by a bus and died. But because he had stage four cancer, death by bus doesn't count.

It seems like that person would probably still be alive today if he hadn't caught Covid 19. So Covid killed him.

It is a big deal for the month it rips through the population. Afterwards it goes back to normal. The longer people lock down for, the longer it will take to go back to normal.

Melbourne is now at the point that containment is impossible and you will have to go for herd immunity (and so will the rest of Aus). The countries not going for herd immunity are basically down to NZ and Taiwan which means they are going to end up going for herd immunity in the end as well.

[Rodius]

Herman Cain dies at 74

(...)

Calabrese said doctors were hopeful as recently as five days before his death that Cain would make a recovery. However, because Cain previously beat liver cancer, he was considered at high-risk for complications related to COVID-19.

(...)

On the campaign trail, he spoke about being diagnosed in 2006 with stage 4 liver cancer and his doctors giving him slim hope for long-term survival.

It sounds like this...... a person with stage four cancer got hit by a bus and died. But because he had stage four cancer, death by bus doesn't count.

It seems like that person would probably still be alive today if he hadn't caught Covid 19. So Covid killed him.

It is a big deal for the month it rips through the population. Afterwards it goes back to normal. The longer people lock down for, the longer it will take to go back to normal.

Melbourne is now at the point that containment is impossible and you will have to go for herd immunity (and so will the rest of Aus). The countries not going for herd immunity are basically down to NZ and Taiwan which means they are going to end up going for herd immunity in the end as well.

You quoted the wrong post

I am not sure I agree with this.... herd immunity isn't even something we are sure can happen yet. I could be wrong, but it is still an unknown factor.

At the moment, Melbourne is still fighting to get the numbers down, I don't think it is going to happen now much like you are saying.
The next stage will be to control the numbers as much as possible to reduce the overload on the health system. We can handle about 500 cases per day at a stretch as we stand right now, but there are plans in place to set up temporary hospitals.... but sadly, this wont fix the shortage of nurses and doctors. Australia can bring in more from other regions and probably New Zealand though.
We already have army personal assisting.

The other challenge is Sydney is losing control of an outbreak that is currently sitting in the tens per day, if Sydney goes the same path as Melbourne, things are going to become even harder.

At the moment the deaths are still low and mostly over 50s, so it is working to plan so far. But we are at point where that could change quickly. We had a third day in a row over plus 600 cases in Melbourne, a few more days like that and I think we are in trouble. This cant be fixed as easily as last time because this time it is driven via community transmission that cant be traced back more often than not. This is the type of situation where we get to find out just how bad Covid really is..... I hope the people who think this global shut down is an overreaction are right.

[blumenkraft]

Back to normal? Back to normal, Bbr??

Let's think about this statement for a minute. Let's assume you let it run freely, and no one cares about contracting it (well, this is utterly delusional from the beginning because most people would change behavior anyway because they don't want to die, but assume it as a theoretical, ok?) then you have 5-10% of people dead. 5-10% fewer people hurts the economy pretty badly, are you aware of that? And you have billions being sick! And on top, you have millions and millions of disabled people because this virus causes long term health issues in a lot of people. Health issues are expensive, did you know that? Congratulations, your economy, your social security, and your whole society for that matter just went south!

What now? You guessed it, the next wave is coming and the whole circus starts again because there are animal reservoirs now. And with every sick person, you have increased the chance of it mutating. We just introduced a whole new kind of death-spirally lottery. Fun, eh?

'Back to normal' isn't! Period! With or without measure to make the best of it.

But hey, Bbr, denial away. You do you! Try to go back to normal. You'll learn that you can't do that alone though. You are living in a society. There will always be people around you who acknowledge reality and act accordingly.

Your 'back to normal' is a flying pig. You can't catch it but you look ridiculous chasing it...

[pietkuip]

Back to normal? Back to normal, Bbr??

Let's think about this statement for a minute. Let's assume you let it run freely, and no one cares about contracting it (well, this is utterly delusional from the beginning because most people would change behavior anyway because they don't want to die, but assume it as a theoretical, ok?) then you have 5-10% of people dead. 

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

One could even be luckier than that if one one lived in a slum:

The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

[blumenkraft]

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

Nope. Check the numbers of regions where it truly ran freely through the population (i.e. Lombardy, some provinces in the Netherlands or GB, etc).

[Rodius]

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

Nope. Check the numbers of regions where it truly ran freely through the population (i.e. Lombardy, some provinces in the Netherlands or GB, etc).

I think we are about to get a clear answer from Melbourne if it takes of properly here. We are testing all over the place, very good health services and support, there will be no real way to argue with the results we get here before the health system collapses and while it is collapsed.

If Melbourne is still doing 600 plus per day this time next week, it is game on for massive problems.

[Pmt111500]

To be honest, 74 is pretty old. But no doubt Cain got the virus at the Trump rally, is this some sort of belated revenge against him for running against el presidente?

[blumenkraft]

I thought it would be clear, but the 'let it run freely' argument is a hypothetical. This will never happen again. This was only true for some regions at the beginning of the pandemic when people didn't know what this virus does, or when people didn't know it's around. You will never have this situation again. You will always have some magnitude of compliance (i.e. mask-wearing, physical distancing, etc) from now on because the majority of people don't want to die or even become sick.

[blumenkraft]

To be honest, 74 is pretty old. But no doubt Cain got the virus at the Trump rally, is this some sort of belated revenge against him for running against el presidente?

Didn't Cain run in 2012?

[pietkuip]

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

Nope. Check the numbers of regions where it truly ran freely through the population (i.e. Lombardy, some provinces in the Netherlands or GB, etc).

Did 5 till 10 % of the population die in Lombardy? in Brabant? in England?

How strange that I missed that.

[glennbuck]

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

Nope. Check the numbers of regions where it truly ran freely through the population (i.e. Lombardy, some provinces in the Netherlands or GB, etc).

It might be true if medical facilities are not overrun the fatality rate would be around 1%, the problem is when hospitals are full or run out of oxygen, then moderate patients die without treatments, people not even in intensive care will die in large numbers without oxygen support/medication shortages, raising the death rate to over 10%!

[Pmt111500]

To be honest, 74 is pretty old. But no doubt Cain got the virus at the Trump rally, is this some sort of belated revenge against him for running against el presidente?

Didn't Cain run in 2012?

Sorry, if I got this wrong, this conspiracy theory has some validity, so some republicans could  believe it. Anyway off topic by a mile. Covid killed a black person. No news here.

[blumenkraft]

Did 5 till 10 % of the population die in Lombardy?

Did 100% of the Lombardy population got exposed to the virus?

[pietkuip]

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

Nope. Check the numbers of regions where it truly ran freely through the population (i.e. Lombardy, some provinces in the Netherlands or GB, etc).

It might be true if medical facilities are not overrun the fatality rate would be around 1%, the problem is when hospitals are full or run out of oxygen, then moderate patients die without treatments, people not even in intensive care will die in large numbers without oxygen support/medication shortages, raising the death rate to over 10%!

Hospitals were overrun in Italy and in New York City. The worst-hit zip-codes in New York had mortalities of about 0.6 % of the population.

You are overestimating mortality by an order of magnitude. (And hospitals do not make that much of a difference. Not an order of magnitude.)

[pietkuip]

Did 5 till 10 % of the population die in Lombardy?

Did 100% of the Lombardy population got exposed to the virus?

You were the one saying that the virus "truly ran freely through the population" in Lombardy, giving that as an example of your absurd fatality percentages. It is incredible, after half a year.

[blumenkraft]

You were the one saying that the virus "truly ran freely through the population" in Lombardy,

And people didn't change behavior after realizing that something is going on? Yes, it ran freely for some time but i never claimed it ran through the whole population.

Piet, one more time: 'let it run freely' a hypothetical! It was an answer to the absurd 'back to normal' comment from Bbr. The whole point is, that back to normal is not going to happen anymore. People learned it's dangerous and changed behavior. And they will not stop doing so.

[wili]

Another thing to think about is if this were to 'run freely' through the rural part of the country...about half of all farmer in the US are above 60...so this could likely have an impact on the availability of food (and large numbers in the US are already food insecure for economic reasons).

[glennbuck]

You are overstating fatalities by an order of magnitude.

Nope. Check the numbers of regions where it truly ran freely through the population (i.e. Lombardy, some provinces in the Netherlands or GB, etc).

It might be true if medical facilities are not overrun the fatality rate would be around 1%, the problem is when hospitals are full or run out of oxygen, then moderate patients die without treatments, people not even in intensive care will die in large numbers without oxygen support/medication shortages, raising the death rate to over 10%!

Hospitals were overrun in Italy and in New York City. The worst-hit zip-codes in New York had mortalities of about 0.6 % of the population.

You are overestimating mortality by an order of magnitude. (And hospitals do not make that much of a difference. Not an order of magnitude.)

20% of New York population got the Virus, from your calculation 0.6%, 20% x 5 for the whole population is 3% CFR.

[pietkuip]

Hospitals were overrun in Italy and in New York City. The worst-hit zip-codes in New York had mortalities of about 0.6 % of the population.

You are overestimating mortality by an order of magnitude. (And hospitals do not make that much of a difference. Not an order of magnitude.)

20% of New York population got the Virus, from your calculation 0.6%, 20% x 5 for the whole population is 3% CFR.

Apples and pears, it is tiresome.

Mortality in New York City was quite spotty. Only few zip-codes had a mortality of 0.6 %, and in those neighborhoods many more had the virus.

NY City as a whole had a population fatality ratio of about 0.2 %.  https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

[crandles]

20% of New York population got the Virus, from your calculation 0.6%, 20% x 5 for the whole population is 3% CFR.

20% is average infection rate for New York. The 0.6% applies to the worst hit areas. Do you honestly think the worst hit areas had the same infection rate as the average?

[Archimid]

An example on how "herd immunity" strategy increases IFR:

Pennsylvania uses 'weighted lottery' to distribute lifesaving remdesivir in favor of low-income patients

https://www.foxnews.com/media/pa-hospitals-use-weighted-lottery-to-distribute-lifesaving-remdesivir-in-favor-of-low-income-patients

The antiviral drug remdisivir has been effective in treating COVID-19, reducing risk of death for severely ill patients by 62 percent. It is also scarce, leaving a number of states in fear of running out as coronavirus cases continue to rise across the country.

As a solution to this problem, Pennsylvania is encouraging healthcare providers to use a “weighted lottery” system to decide which patients are treated with this lifesaving drug and who goes without. Instead of medical need being the deciding factor of who receives a drug, this lottery is weighted in favor of those who sit lower on the socioeconomic spectrum.

[bbr2315]

20% of New York population got the Virus, from your calculation 0.6%, 20% x 5 for the whole population is 3% CFR.

20% is average infection rate for New York. The 0.6% applies to the worst hit areas. Do you honestly think the worst hit areas had the same infection rate as the average?

NYC average infection rate is probably actually around 35% by now, and the worst hit areas were probably not much higher, they just had higher proportions of vulnerable populations, IMO. The virus burns out between 30-40%. Herd immunity does not mean infections stop entirely, it means the virus burns out to a small number.

[Archimid]

If Melbourne is still doing 600 plus per day this time next week, it is game on for massive problems.

Is compliance good or is there widespred resistance to sanitary measures?

Is the government doing contact tracing? If so, have they pinpointed common activities that lead to spread? ( Church going, beach going, bar going etc)

It is now winter in the SH, any appreciable difference on the behavior of C19 that can be attributed to the season? For example, cases of infection from building to building in high density areas or cases of outdoor spreading. Perhaps greater number of cases without apparent close contact?


I think Sweden, Japan and many other countries prove that distancing and hygiene alone are enough to make R<=1, but only during spring and summer and with high population compliance.

If in Australia the compliance is high, the sanitary measures efficient and the virus still spreads, then that would be an indication that winter plays a huge role in the infection rate.

However, low compliance and insufficient sanitary measures alone could explain the second wave and the winter hypothesis remains unsupported.

[bbr2315]

If Melbourne is still doing 600 plus per day this time next week, it is game on for massive problems.

Is compliance good or is there widespred resistance to sanitary measures?

Is the government doing contact tracing? If so, have they pinpointed common activities that lead to spread? ( Church going, beach going, bar going etc)

It is now winter in the SH, any appreciable difference on the behavior of C19 that can be attributed to the season? For example, cases of infection from building to building in high density areas or cases of outdoor spreading. Perhaps greater number of cases without apparent close contact?


I think Sweden, Japan and many other countries prove that distancing and hygiene alone are enough to make R<=1, but only during spring and summer and with high population compliance.

If in Australia the compliance is high, the sanitary measures efficient and the virus still spreads, then that would be an indication that winter plays a huge role in the infection rate.

However, low compliance and insufficient sanitary measures alone could explain the second wave and the winter hypothesis remains unsupported.

Yes, Argentina, Chile, and Australia do not completely validate the winter hypothesis at all, nor does South Africa, lol -- are you freaking kidding? Are you looking at the data?

[Jacobus]

To be honest, 74 is pretty old. But no doubt Cain got the virus at the Trump rally, is this some sort of belated revenge against him for running against el presidente?

Nope, unfortunately it's just some wicked form of karma for downplaying the danger of the virus (or playing with fire).

If there is any form of karmic justice Trump will get it eventually.

[harpy]

I am unsure as to why people think CV19 isn't a big deal, or play it down or undermine the severity. Just look at Melbourne, well tested, resourced etc, we know fairly well how many cases we have and the numbers are not all that big, yet we are in trouble in the health services already. If we keep up this 600 plus day stuff for a few more days things are going to start breaking down and the death toll will begin to include people of all ages, not just the over 50s. Younger very sick CV cases do well because of the hospitals, not because the disease isn't all that bad for younger people.

Of course you're correct on your analysis of the situation. 

As a collective group, we apes tend to try to minimize and get back to our dopamine driven modern lifestyles. 

We can see the same sort of dismissal with the arctic sea ice.  We look at extent, and say "oh that's not so bad", and tend to ignore the volume and thickness.

[Neven]

I am unsure as to why people think CV19 isn't a big deal, or play it down or undermine the severity. Just look at Melbourne, well tested, resourced etc, we know fairly well how many cases we have and the numbers are not all that big, yet we are in trouble in the health services already. If we keep up this 600 plus day stuff for a few more days things are going to start breaking down and the death toll will begin to include people of all ages, not just the over 50s. Younger very sick CV cases do well because of the hospitals, not because the disease isn't all that bad for younger people.

Could you provide some more context wrt Melbourne? How are environmental conditions, air quality, etc? What about demographics? And what about general health, things like obesity, diabetes, metabolic health?

[vox_mundi]

Nobody Knows Who Is In Charge of the Vaccine Plan?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-vaccine/trump-planning-for-u-s-rollout-of-coronavirus-vaccine-falling-short-officials-warn-idUSKCN24W1ON

“[P]ublic health officials and senior U.S. lawmakers are sounding alarms about the Trump administration’s lack of planning for its nationwide distribution,” Reuters reports. Cutting to the quick: “Right now, it is unclear who in Washington is in charge of oversight, much less any critical details, some state health officials and members of Congress told Reuters.”

President Trump disagrees, telling reporters on Thursday, “We are way ahead on vaccines, way ahead on therapeutics and when we have it we are all set with our platforms to deliver them very, very quickly.” (Granted, that comes from the man who has claimed the virus would simply go away at least 22 separate times so far.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/22-times-trump-said-the-coronavirus-would-go-away/2020/04/30/d2593312-9593-4ec2-aff7-72c1438fca0e_video.html

[Rodius]

If Melbourne is still doing 600 plus per day this time next week, it is game on for massive problems.

Is compliance good or is there widespred resistance to sanitary measures?

Is the government doing contact tracing? If so, have they pinpointed common activities that lead to spread? ( Church going, beach going, bar going etc)

It is now winter in the SH, any appreciable difference on the behavior of C19 that can be attributed to the season? For example, cases of infection from building to building in high density areas or cases of outdoor spreading. Perhaps greater number of cases without apparent close contact?


I think Sweden, Japan and many other countries prove that distancing and hygiene alone are enough to make R<=1, but only during spring and summer and with high population compliance.

If in Australia the compliance is high, the sanitary measures efficient and the virus still spreads, then that would be an indication that winter plays a huge role in the infection rate.

However, low compliance and insufficient sanitary measures alone could explain the second wave and the winter hypothesis remains unsupported.

Compliance is good. Over 95% of people wear masks and do the right thing. Some people refuse but they are a minority.

Contact tracing is very good. At the moment the key problems are aged care facilities, public eating spaces, family gatherings like parties, funerals and weddings, and now hospitals.

Winter.... I don't know if winter is an influence or not. Anecdotally I suppose it could, but this is one city out of many in winter at the moment. We will know more on that aspect when winter comes in the NH.

This outbreak started because one man drove many people via Uber for about a week while infected. The areas he lived and drove around are the same areas that CV19 is hitting worst. He didn't tell anyone about his infection until it was too late to do proper contact tracing and it got out of hand from there. In regards to this, I lean towards winter not being a factor but this is only one example.

[Rodius]

I am unsure as to why people think CV19 isn't a big deal, or play it down or undermine the severity. Just look at Melbourne, well tested, resourced etc, we know fairly well how many cases we have and the numbers are not all that big, yet we are in trouble in the health services already. If we keep up this 600 plus day stuff for a few more days things are going to start breaking down and the death toll will begin to include people of all ages, not just the over 50s. Younger very sick CV cases do well because of the hospitals, not because the disease isn't all that bad for younger people.

Could you provide some more context wrt Melbourne? How are environmental conditions, air quality, etc? What about demographics? And what about general health, things like obesity, diabetes, metabolic health?

The environment is clean with reasonable air quality although we did have the serious bush fires in January and February that had terrible air quality for months and kept people inside a lot.

Obesity is above average compared to the world, general health is good, diabetes is normal for a first world city. We are healthier than the average person from the USA but not as healthy as Europeans, on average.

The deaths to date are mostly over 50 with some in their 40s (he was a healthy police officer who caught it while on duty). In the last week the demongraphic of people catching it is getting younger and the people going severe is getting younger as are those going to ICU.

Covid is in the aged care facilities (25% of them the last time I checked, but that will increase) so expected deaths to grow for the elderly. At the moment, young people are getting through it without death but (I cant find the article right now) there are signs CV19 is causing issues with lungs etc in young people.

CV19 is weird, it doesn't seem to harm most people much, but if it hits you hard it seems to go really hard.

Here are the demographics, I am not sure what you are looking for - https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/2GMEL

[Archimid]

 The super spreader is also a good explanation for the outbreak.  I'll interpret it as no obvious winter effect for now. Good.

Thank you Rodius.

[blumenkraft]

Welp! (from the 'back to normal' department)

One of the first ships to resume cruising is having a COVID outbreak

On second thought, maybe it was too soon.
...
Norwegian expedition cruise company Hurtigruten late Friday said four crew members from the 535-passenger Roald Amundsen were admitted to the University Hospital of North Norway in Tromsø, Norway, earlier in the day after the vessel docked in the city.
...

Link >> https://thepointsguy.com/news/covid-outbreak-hurtigruten-norway/

[blumenkraft]

From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists

...
The likelihood of a patient developing persistent symptoms is hard to pin down because different studies track different outcomes and follow survivors for different lengths of time. One group in Italy found that 87% of a patient cohort hospitalized for acute COVID-19 was still struggling 2 months later. Data from the COVID Symptom Study, which uses an app into which millions of people in the United States, United Kingdom, and Sweden have tapped their symptoms, suggest 10% to 15% of people—including some “mild” cases—don’t quickly recover. But with the crisis just months old, no one knows how far into the future symptoms will endure, and whether COVID-19 will prompt the onset of chronic diseases.
...

Link >> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

[pietkuip]

Welp! (from the 'back to normal' department)

One of the first ships to resume cruising is having a COVID outbreak

On second thought, maybe it was too soon.
...
Norwegian expedition cruise company Hurtigruten late Friday said four crew members from the 535-passenger Roald Amundsen were admitted to the University Hospital of North Norway in Tromsø, Norway, earlier in the day after the vessel docked in the city.
...

Link >> https://thepointsguy.com/news/covid-outbreak-hurtigruten-norway/

Hurtigruten is not like the vacation cruises. A large part is also similar to public transport. In some ways it is comparable with the ferries across the Baltic Sea where many passengers are truck drivers, in the summer vacationers, and they are party boats because of tax-free booze. It is the last part that is problematic now (but similar to parties in holiday resorts now).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurtigruten

[Rubikscube]

The study also found that a large section of people had been infected and survived with no or little symptoms, leading to a low fatality rate in these areas - one in one thousand to one in two thousand. This also lowers the city-wide death rate from Covid-19.

And more women were found to have been exposed to infection by the virus in both slum and non-slum areas.

more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

This is very important work which I wish was done in many other places, including villages. As for the assertion that the fatality rate was 0.1-0.05%, I find that extremely dubious (unfortunately BBC does not actually link to the survey they cite. I don't know if this is standard BBC practice, but it leaves us at the mercy of BBC's interpretation). Presumably, dead people were not tested for antibodies and I doubt very much that reliable population-wide death records exist for the slums in question, which means a lot more work needs to be done to find the actual death toll. Having stayed in city slums, impoverished villages and countryside slums (they do exist where agro-business rely on dirt cheap migrant labor), I don't have a very hard time imagining that deadly outbreaks went un-reported. Government presence would have been nonexistent in the first place, so people in such places does not assume that the government will help them when they get sick, and are not inclined to post distress messages on social media to call attention to their plight. In fact, a lot of people will be ashamed to have been infected, and are more likely to low ball the suffering they and their relatives have undergone.

Here is an extensive journalistic report from the outbreak in northern Nigeria a few months back, which will give you some idea of peoples mindset towards the pandemic;

https://www.sunnewsonline.com/r-e-v-e-a-l-e-d-why-many-are-dying-in-kano-bauchi-yobe/

Lockdowns are clearly ineffectual and counter-productive in many areas, such as Mumbai slums. There are, however, a bunch of countries which are perfectly well placed to deal with this pandemic, and their failure to do so is inexcusable (*looking towards America and Europe*). bbr's assertion that the virus cannot be stopped is simply false. Wuhan stopped a much larger outbreak than the one in Melbourne. They succeeded because they didn't move the lockdown one inch until the number of new cases was 0 and remained at that for several days. Later the whole city was tested again. A number of different countries, with vastly different strategies, government and socio-economic systems has managed to stop coronavirus in its tracks (most of them in East-Asia). I never seize to be shocked that restrictions are lifted in places where new active cases are being reported every day, only for people to be surprised that the virus returned. After 6 months of this shit, it seems people (and people making the decisions) haven't learnt the most basic stuff, like the fact that this disease is contagious and can spread through the population undetected for several months. Bottomline; Covid-19 does not spread because of magic tricks, it all comes down to policy failure. Policy failure over the course of several decades.

Here is part of what policy failure look like in Italy (and I suspect most of the western world); overwhelmed public hospitals selling patients to private clinics and nursing homes.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/04/coronavirus-italy-lombardy-private-healthcare-response

Here is part of what policy failure looks like in the 3rd world; rich donors paying corrupt policy makers to defund public health care (and every other public service, including democratic governance).

https://thegrayzone.com/2020/07/08/bill-gates-global-health-policy/
(no wonder the liberal establishment would rather ignore coronavirus in Africa so they can focus on "Black Lives Matter")

Thanks to all the people posting interesting stuff here, in particular Vox Mundi. i think this is a great Covid-19 thread.