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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 65

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 292228 times)

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8050 on: August 01, 2020, 01:22:35 PM »
Obesity is above average compared to the world, general health is good, diabetes is normal for a first world city. We are healthier than the average person from the USA but not as healthy as Europeans, on average.

The deaths to date are mostly over 50 with some in their 40s (he was a healthy police officer who caught it while on duty). In the last week the demongraphic of people catching it is getting younger and the people going severe is getting younger as are those going to ICU.

Am I right to surmise that those younger people are mostly obese or have other medical issues?

Quote
At the moment, young people are getting through it without death but (I cant find the article right now) there are signs CV19 is causing issues with lungs etc in young people.

CV19 is weird, it doesn't seem to harm most people much, but if it hits you hard it seems to go really hard.

Yes, that's what diseases do, and it sucks. But it's not something new or extraordinary. It just seems that way because COVID-19 gets an inordinate amount of attention (for various reasons), and almost no context is offered to put things in perspective.

Take for instance those handful of studies on long-term effects of COVID-19 that get extremely wide circulation in a very short time (just the other day they had the ORF science editor on the Austrian news saying how this research showed that COVID-19 was a 'serial killer', all the while using a host of similar fear-inducing terms to keep those pesky young people obedient). But almost all diseases have nasty long-term effects for some people. Take, for instance the flu (that was always considered to be 'just the flu' and hardly received any extra news coverage, even when hospitals got overwhelmed regionally and hundreds of thousands of people were killed annually):

Quote
The flu isn’t just a health risk for the seven days or so that you’re physically sick with the virus—it can also have some lasting effects that could affect your health for weeks, months, or even permanently. Here are some of the ways the flu can be a risk factor for health issues, even after you’re feeling better.

Heart attack and stroke risk
A number of studies have linked influenza to an increased risk of heart attack and stroke, and scientists have theorized that the inflammatory response triggered by the flu can fuel the development of atherosclerosis, a contributor to heart and artery disease. In a study published this year in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), Canadian researchers found that the risk of having a heart attack was six times higher during the week after being diagnosed with the flu, compared to the year before or after a flu infection.

Other research has suggested that this association persists past those initial seven days of infection: A 2004 NEJM study found that while the increased risks of heart attack and stroke were both highest in the first three days after diagnosis, the dangers only “gradually fell during the following weeks.” And in 2008, researchers reported in the European Heart Journal that the risk of stroke after a flu diagnosis remained elevated up to three months.

“Most people who have studied this agree that two to four weeks, and maybe even into that second month, there is an increased risk of heart attack and stroke,” says William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University. But the message hasn’t yet reached the general public, he adds, or even a lot of physicians. “When I mention this to doctors during continuing education classes, they sit up in their chairs; they’ve never heard this before.”

Secondary infections
The flu can also do a number on the immune system, which can leave people vulnerable to other illnesses and infections—like pneumonia, for example. And while pneumonia is often referred to as a complication of the flu, it’s also not unusual for a person to come down with it once their initial flu symptoms have passed.

“It happens quite often,” says Sharon Nachman, MD, chief of the division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at Stony Brook University School of Medicine. “People feel poorly, then they start to feel better, and all of a sudden they feel poorly again and they wonder why they’re not getting better. And actually it’s because you don’t still have the flu; you have a new, secondary infection.”

Those infections are sometimes bacterial, says Dr. Nachman, which means that antibiotics are likely needed to treat them. It can be normal to feel like you’re not at 100% following a bad case of the flu, says Dr. Schaffner—but if you don’t feel better after a few weeks, talk to your doctor to rule out something more serious.

Out-of-whack test results
The body has to work hard to fight the flu virus, and it can take time to recover to its pre-flu state. So it shouldn’t be surprising that a recent case of influenza can affect the results of blood tests and medical screenings, says Dr. Nachman.

“After most viral illnesses, your white blood cell count is going to be low,” she says. Other measurements, like cholesterol levels, could also be outside of their normal ranges. If you’re scheduled for any routine testing after a bout with the flu, be sure to mention it to your doctor so he or she knows that it could be a factor in your results.

A slide into disability
For elderly patients, getting the flu could be the first step in a continual downward spiral when it comes to their health and their ability to take care of themselves. Not only do older adults face a higher risk of serious complications and death while they have the flu, but they’re also at greater risk of a reduced quality of life afterward, says Dr. Schaffner.

Studies have shown that a significant percentage of nursing home residents experience major physical decline following flu-like illnesses, and that heart disease patients hospitalized for the flu required more follow-up care after they were discharged. “When we talk to geriatricians, they all nod their heads and say they’ve known this for years,” says Dr. Schaffner.

“When an infection like the flu puts you in a bed, it’s remarkable how much muscle tone you lose every day,” he adds. “And if you’re already on the edge of frailty, it can send you on the downhill slide, and it’s very difficult to get your strength and your confidence back completely.”

For this reason, he says, doctors and loved ones should pay close attention to elderly patients after a flu diagnosis. “Make sure they’re getting the help they need to get back to their normal routine,” he says. “In some cases, they may even need some physical therapy to help them do that.”

And so on...

Because the flu was 'just the flu', it was never really hyped up much. But now there's this novel respiratory disease that can be milked for all kinds of reasons by all kinds of people, and with social media around, mass delusions are easily created. In this case, a blockbuster reality is created in which a zombie alien 'serial killer' virus is causing a global plague (whereas epidemiologically speaking, it is very similar to a bad influenza season). The consequences of this delusion will be much larger than the damage caused by the disease itself. But of course, that will be ascribed to the disease as well.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8051 on: August 01, 2020, 01:37:17 PM »
For more context and perspective - that I certainly will not get watching or reading mainstream media - I follow the Swiss Policy Research website on COVID-19. I know that this information has already been labeled m/disinformation by 'fact-checkers', so here are a few quotes to show how wacky and conspiratorial the site is:

Quote
For people at high risk or high exposure (including health care workers), early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease.

(...)

On the other hand, Professor Karin Mölling, the former head of the Department of Virology at the University of Zurich and one of the earliest critical voices on corona measures, has now partly changed her opinion: Due to the sometimes serious lung damage, the virus should not be underestimated and containment measures are important.

(...)

The lower-than-expected lethality of Covid-19 should not hide the fact that the new coronavirus, due to its efficient use of the human ACE2 cell receptor, in some cases can lead to severe disease with complications in the lung, the vascular and nervous systems and other organs, some of which can persist for months.

While it is true that most of these symptoms can also occur in severe influenza (including thrombosis the temporary loss of the sense of smell), they are indeed more frequent and more pronounced in the novel Covid-19 disease.

(...)

In addition, even apparently “mild” disease (without hospitalization) can in some cases lead to protracted complications with breathing problems, fatigue or other symptoms. The US CDC came to the conclusion that after one month, about one third of the “mild” cases still showed such symptoms. Even in the 18 to 34-year-olds without preconditions, about 20% still had after-effects.

On the positive side, researchers at a German clinic recently reported good chances of recovery: “We can see that the lungs can heal well, even in patients who have had three weeks of intensive care”. After three months, 20% of the intensive care patients had healthy lungs again, and in the remaining patients a clear regeneration was visible.

Nevertheless, the primary goal should be to avoid a progression of the disease.

(...)

Note: Patients are asked to consult a doctor.

(...)

Some particularly skeptical observers still seem to perceive Covid predominantly as a “test epidemic”. However, this position has been untenable for months already.

The best known “test epidemic” is the so-called swine flu of 2009/2010, a rather mild influenza virus that only caused worldwide anxiety due to mass testing and media panic. A commission of the Council of Europe later called the swine flu a “fake pandemic” and a “big pharma fraud”.

What was noteworthy at the time was that a few months earlier, the WHO changed its pandemic guidelines and removed the criterion of increased lethality. In addition, pharmaceutical companies signed secret contracts worth billions with governments for a vaccine that later led to sometimes serious neurological damage and had to be disposed of for the most part.

Finally, researchers discovered that the swine flu virus itself probably originated from vaccine research and was released through a leak (or worse).

On the other hand, due to its special characteristics – in particular the very efficient use of the ACE2 cell receptor – the new coronavirus is a dangerous and easily transmissible SARS virus which can cause severe damage to the lungs, blood vessels and other organs. The good fortune is that many people already have a certain immunity to the new virus or at least are able to neutralize it on the mucosal membrane.

Covid-19 is therefore a real and serious pandemic and comparable to the flu pandemics of 1957 (Asian flu) and 1968 to 1970 (Hong Kong flu). The comparison with the swine flu of 2009 is only possible because the deaths caused by swine flu were greatly exaggerated (and still are today).

(On the other hand, it should be remembered that during the 1968/1970 flu pandemic – or rather in the summer between the two main waves – the famous Woodstock festival was held and social life mostly went on as usual).
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8052 on: August 01, 2020, 01:44:12 PM »
And now for the quotes that offer context and perspective, as an antidote to the dismal, manipulative and fear-mongering reporting by mainstream media (links can be found on the page itself):

Quote
1. According to the latest immunological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% to 0.3% and thus in the range of a severe influenza (flu).

5. Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. About 95% of all people develop at most moderate symptoms.

6. Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to the new coronavirus due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. cold viruses). The initial assumption that there was no immunity against the new coronavirus was not correct.

7. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years (e.g. 86 years in Sweden) and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.

8. In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid-19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.

9. Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid-19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.

10. Even in so-called “Covid-19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.

14. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent the UK and the US, hospital overloads due to strong flu waves are not unusual. Moreover, this year up to 15% of health care workers were put into quarantine, even if they developed no symptoms.

15. The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (i.e. the positivity rate) remained constant at 5% to 20% or increased only slightly. In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.

16. Countries without lockdowns, such as Japan, South Korea, Belarus and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than many other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries. 75% of Swedish deaths happened in nursing facilities that weren’t protected fast enough.

17. The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid-19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.

19. There is still little to no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of cloth face masks in healthy and asymptomatic individuals. Experts warn that such masks may interfere with normal breathing and may become “germ carriers” if used repeatedly.

24. At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low. There is also no medical reason for small classes, masks or ‘social distancing’ rules in schools.

28. The number of people suffering from unemployment, depression and domestic violence as a result of the measures has reached historic record levels. Several experts predict that the measures will claim far more lives than the virus itself. According to the UN 1.6 billion people around the world are at immediate risk of losing their livelihood.
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cognitivebias2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8053 on: August 01, 2020, 02:00:20 PM »
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/swiss-policy-research/

"
Swiss Policy Research is also providing information regarding the Coronavirus with mixed facts and misinformation. In this article, Facts about Covid-19, there is the use of several poor sources to support their claims such as the Daily Mail, Off-Guardian, Sputnik, and Youtube videos. Further, this list of so-called facts also contains unproven conspiracy theories such as this: “NSA wholesaler Edward Snowden warns that the “coronavirus crisis” will be used for the massive and continuous expansion of global surveillance. The well-known virologist Pablo Goldschmidt speaks of “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures.” Leading British virologist, Professor John Oxford, talks about a “media epidemic.” They further state “More than 500 scientists have warned of “unprecedented public oversight” using problematic “contact tracking” applications. In some countries, such “contact tracking” is already carried out directly by secret services. In several parts of the world, the population is already monitored by drones and is facing excessive police supervision.” While any of these may one day turn out to be true, there is zero evidence at this time to support these claims and hence they are unproven conspiracy theories.

The website also promotes other unproven conspiracy theories such as the majority of the USA media being controlled by The Council on Foreign Relations, the Bilderbergs, and the Trilateral Commission. While there is no question there is a corporate monopoly in USA media ownership, there isn’t evidence to support their claims. This story again uses Wikipedia as a source, which they have discredited numerous times. In general, this is a conspiracy website that is not credible due to poor sourcing and lack of transparency.

Overall, we rate Swiss Policy Research (SPR) a Moderate Conspiracy website based on the promotion of unproven claims. We also rate them Mixed for factual reporting due to the use of poor sources and complete lack of transparency. (M. Huitsing 5/21/2020)"

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8054 on: August 01, 2020, 02:15:25 PM »
In sociology class, the first thing i learned was never to rely on only one source. My history teacher also hammered this point ad nauseam. Always watch out for contrasting opinions and only then form your own opinion. Never the other way around. Expert knowledge always beats journalism. That's what i learned in school as a kid. It's like the most basic stuff when it comes to media competency and understanding how the world works.

Neven, maybe you are doing it wrong. Have you ever thought about that? Do you never wonder why you so desperately seek information that confirms your bias?
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8055 on: August 01, 2020, 02:17:32 PM »
Given the unknowns of Covid, it pays to be on the cautious side.

There haven't been many under 50s who have died. One was a policeman, so healthy. Others haven't been obese or have any of the triggers for death from Covid. But the numbers are small.

While the complications post infection are part of the game of getting sick sometimes, we cant ignore them without having a full understanding or have enough information to know the most correct path forward.

As has been noted here, every time CV19 runs wild or gets out of hand, many extra people die or get sicker than they would have if health services were coping.
To me, that is the key.

When the flu season is very bad, more people die of the flu.
CV19 is worse than the flu, full hosiptials, inundated wards, medical services breaking and the numbers arent really all that big.

I mean, Melbourne only has 500 per day for a week and the hospital system is very strained even with help from the army and other other States. No flu season has done that here, not ever, and there are more people with the flu in a bad season than we have here at the moment..... and 500 a day is a relatively good estimate because we have tested, literally, at least 25% of the population of Melbourne in the last month alone.

If it increases (I suspect it will), our health system is going to break. Then young people will start to die, even ones with no underlying conditions. Even now, people under forty are filling up the ICU wards. And again, we only have 500 cases a day for the last week.

Melbourne has about a good a record of case numbers as is possible,  contact tracing is excellent, medical care is excellent, we are in a fairly tight lockdown for three weeks and we are struggling.

If people want to think this is nothing, can you please explain away what is happening here because the stats are relatively accurate in terms of numbers of cases because most people get tested at the slightest of symptoms plus people they live with and work with.
If this is a nothing thing, then the expectation would be that should Melbourne increase in cases per day to over 1000, then we should be just fine.

But if that happens and we have a complete break down of medical services and death rates increase in all age groups, then I think those who think this is nothing might want to reconsider their opinion against the facts as the are presented in Melbourne.

Personally, being stuck in one of the worst suburbs for case numbers, I prefer it to go away, but another side of me wants the numbers to explode to over 1000 per day for a few weeks to see what happens.... because should that happen, we will have solid information to support the events that unfold.

If it is nothing, we will be fine.
If not, those who think this is nothing need to front up with something to counter a bad result in Melbourne.

I suspect we will find out..... if next week goes over 1000 per day a few times, I don't think we will be able to bring it back in before the health system collapses.

I will give updates on what is happening in Melbourne over the coming few weeks just to keep people in touch, because I think what is happening here, should it explode, will answer a lot fo questions either way.

And whatever the result is, I will follow that... if it mostly flu like in lethality I will go with that. If it is worse, I will go with that, if it is less, same thing.

I sort of hope it gets much worse here just to get the answers we need.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8056 on: August 01, 2020, 03:25:29 PM »
Why must policemen automatically be healthy? I feel like the common threads between the people who are hysterical and wrong on this virus are sweeping generalized assertions that fail to account for the importance of nuance. You literally still have people arguing that it isn't seasonal despite what is happening in Melbourne. lol.

cognitivebias2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8057 on: August 01, 2020, 03:50:14 PM »
...You literally still have people arguing that it isn't seasonal despite what is happening in Melbourne. lol.

Maybe people say it isn't seasonal, not because of what's happening in the southern hemisphere, but because of what's happening in the northern hemisphere? 

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8058 on: August 01, 2020, 03:56:00 PM »
...You literally still have people arguing that it isn't seasonal despite what is happening in Melbourne. lol.

Maybe people say it isn't seasonal, not because of what's happening in the southern hemisphere, but because of what's happening in the northern hemisphere?
You mean where it has almost disappeared in areas that have summertime minus AC, and where it is spreading with greatly lessened mortality in areas that are in summertime and do use AC? Do you mean to reference both of these additional arguments that support seasonality?

lol

When it explodes in Europe and the elderly start dying en-masse around 10/1 the people like you will say "HOW COULD WE HAVE KNOWN!" stupidly, or more likely will blame others. I have been correct about pretty much everything so far, in fact, Shared Humanity deleted his account when NYC's daily death toll kept dropping, as if he and others were eagerly anticipating the city I inhabit and love to drop dead in its entirety, and were upset that did not happen.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8059 on: August 01, 2020, 04:00:00 PM »
This is something very important that gets zero attention and/or traction in the media:

Quote
Pre-existing immunity against the new coronavirus

At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, it was assumed that no immunity against the new coronavirus existed in the population. This was one of the main reasons behind the initial strategy of “flattening the curve” by introducing stay-at-home orders.

From March and April onwards, however, the first studies showed that a considerable part of the population already had a certain immunity to the new virus, acquired through contact with earlier coronaviruses (common cold viruses).

Further important studies on this topic were published in July:

  • A new study from Germany came to the conclusion that up to 81% of people who have not yet had contact with the new coronavirus already have cross-reactive T-cells and thus a certain background immunity. This confirms earlier studies on T-cell immunity.
  • In addition, a British study found that up to 60% of children and adolescents and about 6% of adults already have cross-reactive antibodies against the new coronavirus, which were created by contact with previous coronaviruses. This is probably another important aspect in explaining the very low rate of disease in children and adolescents.
  • In the case of Singapore, a study published in the scientific journal Nature concluded that people who contracted SARS-1 in 2002/2003 still had T-cells that were reactive against the new SARS-2 coronavirus 17 years later. In addition, the researchers found cross-reactive T-cells, which were produced by contact with other, partly unknown coronaviruses, in about half of the people who had neither contracted SARS-1 nor SARS-2. The researchers suspect that the different distribution of such coronaviruses and T-cells may help explain why some countries are less affected than others by the new corona virus, regardless of the political and medical measures taken.
  • Analysts have previously pointed out that many Pacific countries, and especially China’s neighbouring countries, have so far had very low Covid death rates, regardless of their population structure (young or old) and the measures taken (with or without lockdown, mass tests, masks, etc.). A possible explanation for this could be the spread of earlier coronaviruses.
  • Harvard immunologist Michael Mina explained that the “drop in antibody concentration” after Covid disease, dramatized by some media, was “perfectly normal” and “textbook”. The body ensures long-term immunity through T-cells and memory cells in the bone marrow, which can quickly produce new antibodies when needed.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8060 on: August 01, 2020, 04:29:27 PM »
Mexico City is now at 26,300 excess deaths. The population-wide fatality rate is almost as high as NYC.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?

I think it should probably continue dropping and is unlikely to hit 30K (or is unlikely to go much above). This is a very alarming sign for most cities, IMO. I think many cities will experience population death rates HIGHER than NYC and CDMX during October as the lack of sunshine and overwhelming of hospitals could lead to more fatalities (in Spanish Flu the autumnal wave was 2X as deadly as the summer wave).

I would guess that if cities see total population death rates above NYC and CDMX, they will be in Europe and Asia, and have experienced a mild or limited summer / spring wave. I could see Germany being particularly badly-hit this winter as it has an extremely obese population, very many immigrants (who have highest death rates in most western countries) and control measures have been fairly effective to date.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8061 on: August 01, 2020, 04:33:23 PM »
Covid-19 is serious for people with comorbidity and the very old. The History books will use Covid-19 as the cause of the Second Great Depression, deflecting blame from the Capitalist class, we never recovered from the 2008 Economic crash by 2019 and a Depression was already baked into the cake.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 07:30:40 PM by glennbuck »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8062 on: August 01, 2020, 04:37:12 PM »
Covid-19 is serious for people with comorbidy and the very old. The History books will use Covid-19 as the cause of the Second Great Depression, deflecting blame from the Capitalist class, we never recovered from the 2008 Economic crash by 2019 and a Depression was already baked into the cake.
I read an accurate post --

For the Democrats, the pandemic ended when the protests began
For the Republicans, the pandemic ended after seeing the reaction to the protests
For college kids, the pandemic never started
For the elderly, the pandemic will never end

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8063 on: August 01, 2020, 05:22:05 PM »
Covid-19 is serious for people with comorbidy and the very old. The History books will use Covid-19 as the cause of the Second Great Depression, deflecting blame from the Capitalist class, we never recovered from the 2008 Economic crash by 2019 and a Depression was already baked into the cake.

Long time cake:

If not Capitalism... then What? Cantillionism!
...
https://outofthecave.io/articles/wait-why-is-the-fed-buying-my-biggest-competitors-bonds/
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8064 on: August 01, 2020, 05:50:39 PM »
The US has had almost 1 million confirmed infections in the past two weeks. If 1/10 cases are being recorded, which is IMO accurate (maybe a bit pessimistic given expanded testing but idk), we are at about 45 million currently having been infected.

By the end of September, we should be at about 8.5 million confirmed infections, or about 90 million actual infections, almost one-third of the total population. Being that the virus has selected for herd immunity of its own accord vs. a vaccine, the efficacy of the immune population and the % of the population that must have immunity for infections to begin declining is much LOWER than models had predicted (especially combined with the datapoints mentioned by Neven).

IMO, there is actually a decent chance that most of the US will have herd immunity prior to the autumnal wave, although this is not a guarantee, and it will not be dispersed universally.

This means that the overall death toll from the virus is probably going to end up about 2-3X or higher per capita in Europe than the US, as hysterical lockdowns and overreactions have prevented an inoculating summertime wave, and they will instead be subjected to the worst of the virus at a time of year when mortality is highest.

It should also be noted that ^^^ statement is also true for China. The CCP's narrative of control and competence (despite the fact the virus is from China...) has the potential to completely implode in the same timeframe. If this does occur I think it portends significant political instability in China and also may explain their recent military posturing. An external conflict would be the most logical way to distract from the CCP's gross internal failure and mismanagement when it becomes obvious to their population.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 06:10:18 PM by bbr2315 »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8065 on: August 01, 2020, 07:09:46 PM »
Quote
as hysterical lockdowns and overreactions have prevented an inoculating summertime wave

I'm tending to this opinion more and more. On the Austrian news they try to stoke panic based on rising numbers, stressing that it's those irresponsible young people who are responsible (cue images of young people eating, drinking and socializing). But then they say that despite more infections, there are less sick people, less hospitalisations, and so on. This is a good thing, FCOL!

Good things unwanted. Must be bad or worse.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8066 on: August 01, 2020, 07:20:18 PM »

This means that the overall death toll from the virus is probably going to end up about 2-3X or higher per capita in Europe than the US, as hysterical lockdowns and overreactions have prevented an inoculating summertime wave, and they will instead be subjected to the worst of the virus at a time of year when mortality is highest.

This presumes that a person infected in winter has a much higher risk of death than a person infected in summer.   I'm unaware of a shred of evidence to support this presumption.

On the contrary, treatments are making incremental progress.  In many cases, a death delayed may be a death avoided.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8067 on: August 01, 2020, 07:22:53 PM »
I think the behavior of the coronavirus in a lab indicate infectivity should go up as the temperatures go down.

I think the correlation between Vitamin D deficiency and C19 indicate that the severeness of the disease should get worse as the sun goes down.

I think the great victory over Coronavirus in May was significantly in part by warmer weather, but this is highly obfuscated by non-pharmacological interventions ( shutdowns, distancing, masking) and improved treatments ( plasma, remdisivir).


What I haven't seen is the data to back up this line of thinking. I haven't seen the disambiguated numbers or models that reaffirm my belief. I'm observing what is happenning in the SH and I think it indeed reaffirm my beliefs but I need to see it quantified.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8068 on: August 01, 2020, 07:23:48 PM »

This means that the overall death toll from the virus is probably going to end up about 2-3X or higher per capita in Europe than the US, as hysterical lockdowns and overreactions have prevented an inoculating summertime wave, and they will instead be subjected to the worst of the virus at a time of year when mortality is highest.

This presumes that a person infected in winter has a much higher risk of death than a person infected in summer.   I'm unaware of a shred of evidence to support this presumption.

On the contrary, treatments are making incremental progress.  In many cases, a death delayed may be a death avoided.
In Spanish Flu the mortality rate doubled. The mortality rate has decreased dramatically in the NHEM from springtime to summer as well. I would guess from 1%+ to .1-.25%. So you are free to pick and choose but when the elderly start dying en masse and you act shocked I will not be surprised and <edited because you overestimate the power of this local part of the internet and also that wasn´t very nice.  kassy>
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 07:47:03 PM by kassy »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8069 on: August 01, 2020, 07:24:31 PM »
I think the behavior of the coronavirus in a lab indicate infectivity should go up as the temperatures go down.

I think the correlation between Vitamin D deficiency and C19 indicate that the severeness of the disease should get worse as the sun goes down.

I think the great victory over Coronavirus in May was significantly in part by warmer weather, but this is highly obfuscated by non-pharmacological interventions ( shutdowns, distancing, masking) and improved treatments ( plasma, remdisivir).


What I haven't seen is the data to back up this line of thinking. I haven't seen the disambiguated numbers or models that reaffirm my belief. I'm observing what is happenning in the SH and I think it indeed reaffirm my beliefs but I need to see it quantified.
If a course of action results in more deaths it is not a "Great Victory" but you are clearly blind to the truth here given the consistency of your responses and unwillingness to acknowledge basic numbers.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8070 on: August 01, 2020, 07:35:17 PM »
Hydroxychloroquine. Why is Trump and most coronavirus risk deniers selling this pill as a magic pill while every reputable study out there says it isn't?

Hydroxychloroquine is cheap.
Hydroxychloroquine is widely available.
Hydroxychloroquine is proven relatively safe. Safe enough for prophylactic treatment against malaria.

It seems to me Hydroxychloroquine is the perfect placebo.
Almost as cheap and widely availble as a sugar pill, almost as harmless. Good enough to give confidence to the cultists that may get cold feet.

That's why Hydroxychloroquine.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8071 on: August 01, 2020, 08:18:21 PM »
A dutch doctor used it early on. Used in low doses similar to those used fighting malaria combined with Vit D and something else and it kept all his patients safe. Then the local paper wrote about it. Miracle doctor. Then the inspection came and told him that it was not in the rule book to use it and the consequences could be so bad for him.

This was at a time there were no actual treatments that helped much so i always wondered why our inspection actually stopped a doctor doing doctor things aka curing people with whatever he had on hand. There were zero people that needed hospitalization.

The sad truth is that there is plenty of bias with career people being aware that big pharma provides the big money so most of those systems are not doing what you think they are doing.



Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8072 on: August 01, 2020, 08:27:56 PM »
A dutch doctor used it early on. Used in low doses similar to those used fighting malaria combined with Vit D and something else and it kept all his patients safe. Then the local paper wrote about it. Miracle doctor. Then the inspection came and told him that it was not in the rule book to use it and the consequences could be so bad for him.

This was at a time there were no actual treatments that helped much so i always wondered why our inspection actually stopped a doctor doing doctor things aka curing people with whatever he had on hand. There were zero people that needed hospitalization.

The sad truth is that there is plenty of bias with career people being aware that big pharma provides the big money so most of those systems are not doing what you think they are doing.

Harvey Risch thinks hydroxychloroquine was written off too soon.

Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk Covid-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8073 on: August 01, 2020, 08:40:00 PM »
Dr. John Campbell - Increasing cases and prevention in the UK

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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8074 on: August 01, 2020, 09:03:35 PM »
SPR mixes facts with blatant nonsense. Debunking is always much harder than writing the nonsense in the first place. Not to mention convincing anyone who is locked on this shady website as their primary source.

Quote
15. The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (i.e. the positivity rate) remained constant at 5% to 20% or increased only slightly. In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.
In Israel the number of tests did not grow exponentially and reached a plateau at some point. Of course when the second wave hit people had more symptoms so more of them got tests, which did increase the total number. And yet the positivity rate only went up from 2% to nearly 10% as daily confirmed cases went from 20 to 2000, so  cases grew exponentially as it appeared, but in reality they grew even higher.
And first wave cases started going down a few weeks into the lockdown, just like any logical person would expect and in complete contradiction to the nonsense quoted above. SPR is cherry picking statistics from countries that enacted a late lockdown, and that did not have a second wave (yet?).

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8075 on: August 01, 2020, 09:15:01 PM »
Quote
24. At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low. There is also no medical reason for small classes, masks or ‘social distancing’ rules in schools.
As lockdown was gradually lifted in Israel, daily cases were growing rather slowly until schools reopened. Then one day, just a couple of weeks later, it was discovered that 140 students in one high/junior high school have been infected. Of course they also infected their parents and families (and teachers of course). That time marked the beginning of fast growth in daily cases. There are more examples like this in cases where teenagers congregated. Why would anyone think or claim there is no transmission in children? That there is no medical reason for limiting school exposure? This is blatant disinformation. Had it claimed this only about elementary schools, that is arguable, I haven't seen enough statistics. Had it claimed it only about symptoms or deaths in children, that would be correct. But transmission?? teenagers transmit the disease very easily.
Personally, I would not be reading a website that mixed such blatant disinformation along with its facts.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8076 on: August 01, 2020, 09:19:18 PM »
Harvey Risch thinks hydroxychloroquine was written off too soon.

Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk Covid-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586

FTA

Quote
The FDA has recently issued guidance (15) to physicians and the general
public advising that the combination HCQ+AZ should not generally be used except by critically ill hospital inpatients or in the context of registered clinical trials. The NIH panel for Covid-19 treatment guidelines say essentially the same (16), and a similar statement has been released by the major cardiology societies (17). Numerous reviews of HCQ efficacy and adverse events have been and continue to be published. To my knowledge, all of these reviews have omitted the two critical aspects of reasoning about these drugs: use of HCQ combined with AZ or with doxycycline, and use in the outpatient setting.

So the author is very open to the fact that most experts and agencies have reviewed the evidence and find that HCQ does not work. However, he claims that there is a knowledge vacuum because the experts ignored "use of HCQ combined with AZ or with doxycycline, and use in the outpatient setting."

Those familiar with climate change denial know this drill well. If you give this  person a study that  does combine HCQ + AZ, he will say that it must be HCQ + AZ + zinc.

In reality, there are studies that discredit both those claims by using data, not biased and one sided reviews like this one.

Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate Covid-19


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014

Quote
Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care.

Association of Treatment With Hydroxychloroquine or Azithromycin With In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With COVID-19 in New York State

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766117

Quote
Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, or both was not associated with significantly lower in-hospital mortality


Although there is one that favors the author's conclusion

Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext


Regardless, the author's knowledge is most certainly incomplete and misrepresents the state of knowledge.

In reality, there is no evidence to think HCQ works alone or in combination with other medications against C19. All mayor organizations agree that there is no such evidence.

I would love for HCQ to be a magic pill, but there is very little reason to believe it helps, and every reason to belive it is being used a placebo.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8077 on: August 01, 2020, 09:29:06 PM »
Oren, SwPR says 'In many/most countries', and then you 'debunk' that by using Israel as an example. Is it possible that Israel isn't one of 'many/most countries'?

As for keeping schools open or closed, this is very much open for scientific debate. Don't act as if it is some law of nature that keeping schools closed is a fantastic measure for keeping a virus confined. And don't act as if the advantages vastly outweigh the disadvantages. Again, this is open for debate.

You disagree with SwPR, fine. Why do you have to immediately define it as a 'shady website' that 'mixes facts with blatant nonsense'? Are you that insecure? Do you crave so much some agreed upon reality that everybody must believe in?

You guys can dump on SwPR as much as you like, finding some faults in an extensive list so all of it can be dismissed, it is still 10 times better than 90% of the links posted in this thread, and 100 times better than mainstream media all over the world. It is an excellent overview that is updated and corrected non-stop, which doesn't make it perfect, but much better and much more independent than anything else I've seen so far.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8078 on: August 01, 2020, 09:36:36 PM »
Hydroxychloroquine. Why is Trump and most coronavirus risk deniers selling this pill as a magic pill while every reputable study out there says it isn't?

Hydroxychloroquine is cheap.
Hydroxychloroquine is widely available.
Hydroxychloroquine is proven relatively safe. Safe enough for prophylactic treatment against malaria.

It seems to me Hydroxychloroquine is the perfect placebo.
Almost as cheap and widely availble as a sugar pill, almost as harmless. Good enough to give confidence to the cultists that may get cold feet.

That's why Hydroxychloroquine.

How about this one? Cheap, generic medication is very much unwanted in this situation, as there is billions to be made off of expensive medication and vaccines. I believe the Trump administration is very much linked to the remdisivir people. So, here's what PR people propose should be done: Let Trump say that Hydroxychloroquine is fantastic. Trump Derangement Syndrome will then make sure that people go nuts and start screaming the opposite.

That would be very mean of those PR people, wouldn't it? Well, that's what PR people do. And that's how Trump became president and makes sure he is the centre of attention.

Here's what SwPR has on Hydroxychloroquine (links can be found on the page itself):

Quote
On the treatment of Covid-19
Note: Patients are asked to consult a doctor.

Several studies have now confirmed what some front-line physicians have been saying since March: Early treatment of Covid patients with zinc and the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is indeed effective. US doctors have reported a reduction in hospitalisation rates of up to 84% and a stabilisation of the health condition often within a few hours.

Zinc has antiviral properties, HCQ supports zinc absorption and has additional antiviral properties. These drugs are supplemented by doctors if necessary with an antibiotic (to prevent a bacterial superinfection) and a blood thinner (to prevent infection-related thromboses and embolisms).

The alleged or actual negative results with HCQ in some studies were based, according to the current state of knowledge, on delayed use (intensive care patients), excessive doses (up to 2400mg per day), manipulated data sets, or ignored contraindications (e.g., favism or heart problems).

Sadly, the WHO, many media and some authorities may have caused considerable and unnecessary damage to public health in recent months through their negative stance, which may have been politically motivated or influenced by pharmaceutical interests.

French professor of medicine Jaouad Zemmouri, for example, estimates that Europe could have avoided up to 78% of Covid deaths by adopting a consistent HCQ treatment strategy.

HCQ contraindications such as favism or heart problems need to be considered, but the recent Ford Medical Center study achieved a reduction in hospital deaths of around 50% even with 56% African-American patients (who more often have favism).

However, the crucial point in the treatment of high-risk patients is early intervention as soon as the first typical symptoms develop and even without a PCR test in order to prevent progression of the disease and avoid intensive care hospitalization.

Most countries did the exact opposite: after the infection wave in March, they imposed a lockdown, so that infected and frightened people were locked up in their homes without treatment and often waited until they developed severe respiratory distress and had to be taken directly to the intensive care unit, where they were often sedated and intubated and were likely to die.

It is conceivable that a zinc HCQ combination protocol, which is simple, safe and inexpensive, could make more complex drugs, vaccinations and measures largely obsolete.

More recently, a case study from France showed that in four of the first five patients treated with the much more expensive drug Remdesivir from the pharmaceutical company Gilead, treatment had to be discontinued due to liver issues and kidney failure.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8079 on: August 01, 2020, 10:23:29 PM »

In reality, there are studies that discredit both those claims by using data, not biased and one sided reviews like this one.

Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate Covid-19


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014

Quote
Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care.


Understood.  But studies with hospitalized patients would similarly show Tamiflu to be useless against influenza, when we know it's moderately effective.  Hospitalized patients are rarely within 72 hours of symptom onset.  For antivirals to be effective for acute infection, they generally have to be given shortly after symptom onset.

I'm not arguing that HCQ is effective, I'm suggesting that there may be more to the story.  Am J of Epidemiology isn't exactly the Daily Mail.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8080 on: August 01, 2020, 10:43:30 PM »
Neven, I gave you this example of blatant disinformation, presenting as medical fact something which is clearly the opposite of a fact.
Quote
24. At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low. There is also no medical reason for small classes, masks or ‘social distancing’ rules in schools.
And yet you counter with an argument about policy.
Quote
As for keeping schools open or closed, this is very much open for scientific debate. Don't act as if it is some law of nature that keeping schools closed is a fantastic measure for keeping a virus confined. And don't act as if the advantages vastly outweigh the disadvantages. Again, this is open for debate.
I very much agree - school closure policy is open for debate. However, to do that properly one must know the facts on disease risks and transmission in the relevant children population.
SPR did not discuss "school closure policy", rather it presented facts for that discussion, facts that were blatantly wrong. Why did it do that? How many other wrong facts are mixed in with the correct facts? I can easily see many such wrong items there. Why are these wrong facts all biased in the same direction? I shudder to think this is someone's primary source.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8081 on: August 02, 2020, 12:38:22 AM »
I'm not arguing that HCQ is effective, I'm suggesting that there may be more to the story.  Am J of Epidemiology isn't exactly the Daily Mail.

There could be more to the story and HCQ could very well have therapeutic properties against C19. But that's the thing. We don't know. Not by a long shot. Anyone saying HCQ works against C19 is engaging in speculation that is not scientifically substantiated.

Trump, Bolsonaro and most C19 denying groups are making claims about C19 that they have no scientific right to say, because there is no evidence.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8082 on: August 02, 2020, 12:41:28 AM »
Neven, I gave you this example of blatant disinformation, presenting as medical fact something which is clearly the opposite of a fact.

Yes, but you obviously have trouble reading it correctly because of bias.

You said: 'Why would anyone think or claim there is no transmission in children?'

Whereas it clearly says in the text you quoted: 'the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low'.

The reason someone would claim the risk of transmission in children is extremely low, is because there are scientific studies showing this (such as this one). Of course, you can brush this aside with more anecdotal evidence from Israel (no links), and if you'd make more of an effort, you'd find scientific studies that show the opposite. That's because it's far from clear.

My problem with your argument is that you latch onto something, call it an 'example of blatant disinformation', and then simply brush everything aside. That's just too easy, and shows you have already decided what reality is, simply based on media narratives that people have been bombarded with for more than 100 days straight.

And then you arrogantly state that you 'shudder to think this is someone's primary source'. Well, show me a perfect primary source then! You can't, because it doesn't exist. The easiest thing to do in the world, is to find one sentence, declare it 'blatant disinformation' (true or not) and dismiss the whole thing.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8083 on: August 02, 2020, 12:43:43 AM »
Trump, Bolsonaro and most C19 denying groups are making claims about C19 that they have no scientific right to say, because there is no evidence.

And because they're saying it, the opposite must be true! QED!

How much does remdesivir cost again? How much money do PR people make?
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8084 on: August 02, 2020, 12:51:58 AM »
Saying that HCQ is an effective medication against C19 is a blatant lie. Trump, Bolsonaro and C19 risk deniers are happy to repeat the lie because having a Magic pill like HCQ makes people more willing to throw themselves at the disease.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8085 on: August 02, 2020, 05:56:45 AM »
Why must policemen automatically be healthy? I feel like the common threads between the people who are hysterical and wrong on this virus are sweeping generalized assertions that fail to account for the importance of nuance. You literally still have people arguing that it isn't seasonal despite what is happening in Melbourne. lol.

Given the Melbourne outbreak is linked to a superspreader and that outbreaks are broadening in Europe gives credence to it not being seasonal.

Melbourne is the ONLY city in Australia having problems and the only place that got a super spreader. Sydney, Adelaide and Perth, all in Winter, have no problems

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8086 on: August 02, 2020, 06:19:24 AM »
My understanding of Covid is this.

1 - it has a death rate of about 0.1% to 0.3% when treated

2 - it is highly contagious

3 - when people require hospital treatment, it is for a long time. This means hospitals get filled up with high need patients quickly and cant discharge them faster than new sick people turn up. This is why it only takes relatively small numbers of cases to clog up the health care system. Unlike the flu, which has an average hospital stay of severe cases below that of Covid

Flu is about 5 days - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK63484/

Covid is about 11 days - https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-28/COVID-19-patients-have-a-long-hospital-stay-in-the-U-S-study-QRdKHnf7zi/index.html

To me, this is why Covid is a big problem. It destroys hospital systems that stop other patients that have unrelated problems to get less treatment, no treatment, or end up catching it while in hospital. With resources like doctors and nurses in short supply, and more so because they get sick, death rates increase.

4 - left untreated, Covid appears to kill more people than the flu. This means it is the intervention that is saving people and not because Covid isn't all that bad. Of course, this is highly debatable and the variables are wide, yet every city that gets hit hard from Covid also sees death rates increase in all age groups.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8087 on: August 02, 2020, 06:28:45 AM »
(USA)

Opening schools might all very well if you look only at the children. Kids can and will transmit to older folk, even absent symptoms or serious consequence to themselves. No way you can make masks, handwash and social distancing work in  bunch under tens, or for that matter any of a typical school body. But what of the staff and the parents ? There are about half a dozen schoolteachers I know will quit if forced to return. Almost every parent I know is looking at homeschooling if they can manage it or outright opting out and braving the penalties, some are lawyering up if the school district forces inperson return. You aint gonna make em march their kids in. 

Or in higher education. I know of one large midwestern university that plans to open on campus classes this month. Everything i hear from faculty, students and employees is strongly against anything but online class.  I  personally know one professor who died and two others who will take early retirement if forced to return. A graduate student who was supposed to defend his PhD in spring but was shut down went home and is living with two immunocompromised parents, absolutely refuses to return to campus. He is far from alone.

Aint gonna be easy to open education up absent declining infection/death numbers, which are rising remorselessly. We in for a long haul.

sidd

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8088 on: August 02, 2020, 08:18:38 AM »
Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels, Study Finds
The research does not prove that infected children are contagious, but it should influence the debate about reopening schools, some experts said.


Link >> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/health/coronavirus-children.html
(Paywalled, just turn off Javascript in your browser to read it)

Study here >> https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8089 on: August 02, 2020, 08:28:53 AM »
Yes, but you obviously have trouble reading it correctly because of bias.

That is some chutzpah accusing Oren of all people to be biased. You, as the person who cites misinformation all the time.

You lost your track and it's horrible to watch. I wish you'd stop discrediting yourself and this forum. You make me being ashamed of being a part of this.
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Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8090 on: August 02, 2020, 08:31:27 AM »
Opening schools might all very well if you look only at the children. Kids can and will transmit to older folk, even absent symptoms or serious consequence to themselves. No way you can make masks, handwash and social distancing work in  bunch under tens, or for that matter any of a typical school body. But what of the staff and the parents ? There are about half a dozen schoolteachers I know will quit if forced to return. Almost every parent I know is looking at homeschooling if they can manage it or outright opting out and braving the penalties, some are lawyering up if the school district forces inperson return. You aint gonna make em march their kids in. 

Sweden did not close schools for kids aged 6-15. Upper level education (age 16-24) moved to online education. The reason to close upper level education was to reduce crowding on public transport since it's very common to commute to a school for this age group. There have been a number of publications about the consequences of this and they show that:

* Teachers do not have significantly higher risk of Covid-19 infection, the relative risk is 1.1 (compared to Taxi drivers 4.8, Bus drivers 4.5 and so on, teachers are very close to average risk of 1.0).

* Compared to Finland, where schools were closed, the rate of infections in age group 6-15 is:
Sweden (schools open): 30/100000
Finland (schools closed): 42/100000

Much can be said about the Swedish Covid-19 strategy, but keeping schools open was absolutely 100% the right thing to do and so far I've seen no scientific evidence that suggests otherwise.
 


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8091 on: August 02, 2020, 09:27:14 AM »
Melbourne is the ONLY city in Australia having problems and the only place that got a super spreader. Sydney, Adelaide and Perth, all in Winter, have no problems

But remember, if there are 0 or close to 0 cases, the infectiveness remains 0 regardless of the environment.

I think the most clear signal of a winter effect will be taking measures like distancing or masking yet experiencing much less R reduction.

If the same actions that worked well a few months ago do not work as well now, then that would be evidence of a winter effect.
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8092 on: August 02, 2020, 09:42:03 AM »
Neven, I gave you this example of blatant disinformation, presenting as medical fact something which is clearly the opposite of a fact.

Yes, but you obviously have trouble reading it correctly because of bias.

You said: 'Why would anyone think or claim there is no transmission in children?'

Whereas it clearly says in the text you quoted: 'the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low'.

The reason someone would claim the risk of transmission in children is extremely low, is because there are scientific studies showing this (such as this one). Of course, you can brush this aside with more anecdotal evidence from Israel (no links), and if you'd make more of an effort, you'd find scientific studies that show the opposite. That's because it's far from clear.

Neven, I will take it upon myself to research the issue of transmission by children in more depth.
Bear in mind one of the main studies cited by all, the one in Geneva, took place when schools were closed. A study is needed for locations where schools were open, preferably with no limitation, to prove the point claimed by SPR that there is no medical reason to close schools, to limit class size or to wear masks. I will look for such studies.

"In this issue of Pediatrics, Posfay-Barbe et al6 report on the dynamics of COVID-19 within families of children with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction–confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Geneva, Switzerland. From March 10 to April 10, 2020, all children <16 years of age diagnosed at Geneva University Hospital (N = 40) underwent contact tracing to identify infected household contacts (HHCs). Of 39 evaluable households, in only 3 (8%) was a child the suspected index case, with symptom onset preceding illness in adult HHCs. In all other households, the child developed symptoms after or concurrent with adult HHCs, suggesting that the child was not the source of infection and that children most frequently acquire COVID-19 from adults, rather than transmitting it to them."
So this study does not help. No wonder that with schools closed transmission by children was lower. However, one other issue with the study is that it decided on chain of transmission based on onset of symptoms, whereas many children do not show symptoms or have less symptoms and could have been the source of the infection unknowingly. Chain of transmission should normally be decided by epidemiological inquiry - who got it from whom and when.
In any case, I promise to research this further.

Quote
My problem with your argument is that you latch onto something, call it an 'example of blatant disinformation', and then simply brush everything aside. That's just too easy, and shows you have already decided what reality is, simply based on media narratives that people have been bombarded with for more than 100 days straight.

And then you arrogantly state that you 'shudder to think this is someone's primary source'. Well, show me a perfect primary source then! You can't, because it doesn't exist. The easiest thing to do in the world, is to find one sentence, declare it 'blatant disinformation' (true or not) and dismiss the whole thing.
Debunking is a hard problem. When I give my strong impression that the whole thing is clearly biased, I am blamed of generalities, and bias. When I take a specific point down to show the underlying bias, I am blamed of latching onto one thing, and bias. I doubt I can get out of this loop.
Assuming I decided what reality is simply based on media narratives I have been bombarded with, is conspiratorial and wrong. This whole thing of media and narratives is way overblown, IMHO. For two months the media downplayed the Coronavirus, while powerful governments denied its risk, and very loud denier voices on the media got a load of attention. But in any case, I barely watch TV, I read newspapers with very critical eyes, and I use the scientific method to collect and discard information and make predictions, as much as I can. I have read countless scientific papers on the subject, something which I dislike doing as it is time-consuming and boring and very far from my limited base of scientific knowledge, but often the summarizing articles were not good enough. Of course, I can't prove any of it, I could be severely biased unknowingly - maybe it's the narrative that has taken hold of me. So I doubt I can get out of this loop as well.
If I spoke arrogantly I apologize. and I agree there is no single primary source that is good enough. The only method is to gather your own data, while using critical thinking and scientific approach, and not latch onto a single source just because it fits with your point of view.
To be honest, this thread has been a good source of information, and the debates in it helped me by pointing me towards different sources and different points of view.
But enough about me, my opinions don't matter much. I admit I am concerned about you Neven, but we have already discussed this and there's no point in sparring over it. I respect you too greatly anyway, let's leave it at that.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8093 on: August 02, 2020, 09:53:54 AM »
The question of seasonality is basically proven to me (I did not believe it at all back in March, mind you).

Take a look at this graph. This one shows how much (based on Google measurements) mobility was down in July vs pre-covid average.

Argentina , Peru, Colombia, S.africa (winter), India, Philippines (monsoon) are doing their utmost (mobility down 30-40%) to stop it and yet case numbers keep on surging. At the same time, Europe is down only 13% vs pre-covid and yet cases are rising only slowly.

How come?

There is no other explanation than seasonality. Europe was saved by the onset of summer. And will be devastated in October-December.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8094 on: August 02, 2020, 10:05:45 AM »
I am still undecided about seasonality, only NH autumn will give enough information. But in any case, I find that when total case counts are low they will tend to rise very slowly even when R is high, because the absolute number is low, many are asymptomatic, and because people don't rush to test themselves when they think the risk is low. Also there are big differences in actual social and personal measures implemented in each country. Thus it's very hard to compare.
I would not be surprised though if El Cid's theory is generally right. I think indoor transmission vastly trumps outdoor transmission, so regions with cold winters, or very hot summers with AC, will tend to have it worse.
One thing though, I believe a lot of transmission takes place in big family events (e.g. 500-guest weddings) and in schools and university classes. These are mostly not seasonal (except summer break) and mostly indoors or in close quarters. However, many schools and universities have been closed or still are, and many regions have disallowed big events. So the policy changes could be stronger than the seasonality signal.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8095 on: August 02, 2020, 10:12:48 AM »
We could just easily test our way out of this. A cheap rapid antibody test a day for everyone. The positives stay at home. Boom. That's it!

Everyone needs to push this message to their political representatives. The project warp speed is playing with fire. A rushed vaccine will introduce any kind of problems. Better invest money in a massive rollout of cheap tests. Testing is not dangerous at all.

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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8096 on: August 02, 2020, 10:59:16 AM »
Melbourne is the ONLY city in Australia having problems and the only place that got a super spreader. Sydney, Adelaide and Perth, all in Winter, have no problems

But remember, if there are 0 or close to 0 cases, the infectiveness remains 0 regardless of the environment.

I think the most clear signal of a winter effect will be taking measures like distancing or masking yet experiencing much less R reduction.

If the same actions that worked well a few months ago do not work as well now, then that would be evidence of a winter effect.


I agree..... the thing that floats around in my head concerning comparing what is happening here now and the initial hit is the first hit came from overseas. Melbourne quartined everyone coming into the city while contact tracing a lot. It worked.

This time the cause of spread is community transmission that can no longer be traced to origin. I could be wrong, but these two situations are not alike at all.
Which gives some credance to winter/indoor a lot being a contributing factor.

Today, Melbourne has restricted movement even more and more restrictions will be introduced tomorrow. The experts here decided that the current approach would take six months to reduce numbers of cases per day to low enough levels to open things up again. It was decided that six months is too long so the restrictions were increased with a view to having much lower per day cases within six weeks.

The weather is slowly beginning to warm up, in six weeks it will be relatively nice conditions, so even these restrictions will be difficult to determine if it was the restrictions of warming weather than did the job.

Like others here, I think we will have a clearer answer when the NH winter arrives. Us Southerners only represent 12% of the human population so we don't count for much and we don't get the cold winters like the NH does.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8097 on: August 02, 2020, 11:22:24 AM »

One thing though, I believe a lot of transmission takes place in big family events (e.g. 500-guest weddings) and in schools and university classes. 

I do not think it is the classes. It is the students partying. And when the study year starts, there is a lot of partying on campuses. It will be less this year than usual, but it seems unavoidable that the virus will spread when students return.

I am happy that I am not scheduled to teach until the end of October. By then we will know. I expect a rise in cases (we have had only very few in this part of Sweden). And I expect that in-class teaching will be canceled then.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8098 on: August 02, 2020, 12:28:42 PM »
The question of seasonality is basically proven to me (I did not believe it at all back in March, mind you).

Take a look at this graph. This one shows how much (based on Google measurements) mobility was down in July vs pre-covid average.

Argentina , Peru, Colombia, S.africa (winter), India, Philippines (monsoon) are doing their utmost (mobility down 30-40%) to stop it and yet case numbers keep on surging. At the same time, Europe is down only 13% vs pre-covid and yet cases are rising only slowly.

How come?

There is no other explanation than seasonality. Europe was saved by the onset of summer. And will be devastated in October-December.
Dude, it’s been 30C-40C in Spain for most of July. Yet outbreaks started to slowly rise the day lockdown was ended second half of June, and has got out of control in the last couple of weeks (the warmest ones). Reasons: family reunions, parties, bars & restaurants, some tourism, temporary workers in the fields sleeping in barracks...
The main reason R stays between 1 and 1.5, and not 4, is that everyone is wearing a mask in public places, and people limit their activities, their exposure, and exposure to others compared to pre-COVID times.

There may be seasonal reasons too, but to me it’s clear that seasonality wouldn’t play much of a role if we hadn’t changed after the March wave. If your neck of the woods is faring better is possibly due to better preparation, better control, but not really the summer
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 03:31:07 PM by gandul »

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8099 on: August 02, 2020, 12:35:09 PM »
This review of the long term effects of Covid 19, just published in Science, should give those at the herd immunity end of the spectrum some pause for thought:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

“Although scientists hope they’ll learn how to avert chronic symptoms and help patients currently suffering, this latest chapter in the COVID-19 chronicle has been sobering. The message many researchers want to impart: Don’t underestimate the force of this virus. “Even if the story comes out a little scary, we need a bit of that right now,” Iwasaki says, because the world needs to know how high the stakes are. “Once the disease is established, it’s really hard to go backward.”

With the global number of infections approaching 20m, many more cases out there in the Community and strong signals of a resurgence in many parts of the world - Europe, Australia, Japan... - the long term impact of post-Covid chronic illness could rapidly become a significant medical and economic burden should a vaccine not emerge from the current plethora of clinical trials.