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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 285993 times)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8100 on: August 02, 2020, 12:45:35 PM »
Why not both? I think it is both.

Summer brings with it a more hostile outside environment and higher vitamn D prevalence. Maybe that's enough for an R-1. Then you add distancing, hand washing and school closures and you get  R-3.

But I have not seen a good model or study assigning a weight to the seasonality relative to other factors.

Good graphs El Cid. I am  also convinced but I think knowing the effect size is important. It may be that the effect is minor and can be safely ignored, or it may be that the effect is significant and understanding it provides an advantage on how to fight C19.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8101 on: August 02, 2020, 12:55:24 PM »
There may be seasonal reasons too,

I think the seasonal effect is reduced to the question if people are more or less indoors/outside.

In countries like Spain, people might be more inside at high temperatures, seeking cooler, air-conditioned places.

In countries like Germany, air conditioning is not a common thing. Activities concentrate at outside places in the summer months, reducing transmission. Also, having windows open should make a huge difference (which you don't have with air-conditioned buildings).
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8102 on: August 02, 2020, 12:55:56 PM »
ITALY Data

Italy had a really bad time early on, as can be seen by the very high mortality rate of total reported cases - mostly the elderly.

But now, although daily new cases has crept up in July from under 200 to over 300 in the month, in July daily deaths have declined from around 20 to less than 10.

One might have thought that most OECD countries could have done as well. They have the technology, the resources and the data and the examples of others (good & bad) . So the outcomes are really about the politicians, or more generally, the people who presume to govern us..

For the Italy graphs, I no longer have to adjust the Y-axis. For elsewhere, I do.
______________________________________________
ps: On BBC's Radio 4, a programme looked at how the English authorities reacted to previous Pandemics.

The Plague?The clergy blamed the Wrath of God and the sins of the people.
They did not blame the people of Muslim countries or the followers of Islam as some closet racists in the UK have done.
 
The Nobles and rich tradespeople ran away from London to their country houses.
They also passed laws to force the people to work in the fields to bring in the Harvest and also dropped their wages to stop the income of the rich from falling.

The clergy did not stop collecting tithes.

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 01:03:29 PM by gerontocrat »
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8103 on: August 02, 2020, 01:43:28 PM »
Ruprecht Polenz is a conservative German politician. This Tweet is aimed at the virus deniers.

Translates to: "Those are not Covidiots. The word downplays the goals of those manipulators. They are Third Position [1] ideologues who hate democracy. They try to construct an alternative reality with lies to form an opposition to the rule of law and freedom.



This is not an issue of right-wing vs. left-wing politics. This is a question of fascism vs. democracy. This virus is being instrumentalized to pull people into their ideology. And it is working. Some do it because they understand (the facists). Some do it because they don't understand (the Mitläufer [2]).

[1] "The Third Position is a set of neo-fascist political ideologies that developed in Western Europe following the Second World War." Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Position

[2] "]Mitläufer (German for "fellow traveler") refers to a public person or persons believed to be tied to or passively sympathizing of certain social movements, often to those that are prevalent, controversial or radical." Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitläufer
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8104 on: August 02, 2020, 01:57:13 PM »
I love how left-wing fascists are now calling everyone else fascists. As if the blatant fake propaganda (masks don't work! HCQ is fake! quarantine forever and never work again!) has some possibility of being accurate?

I truly feel this event has seen the left-wing of the political spectrum showcase its stupidity and they are, in fact, WORSE than right-wingers in imposing unscientific and harmful measures borne from the billionaire class on the rest of the population. Look at the repeat posts from Vox_mundi et al that contain zero analysis and just blather on and on, and then Archimid's responses, how the quarantine failures in Australia are being portrayed by those who support them....

It is very relevant to AGW because the things one can do to minimize COVID risk to near zero (i.e. get sunshine, eat healthy, lose weight) are all easily put into practice, yet we still have posters here raving about Trump and Bolsonaro and anyone else who dares support HCQ and herd immunity via summertime transmission. It is almost like many posters here have no concept of personal responsibility.

That bodes super well for reducing GHGs, lollllllll.

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8105 on: August 02, 2020, 03:39:38 PM »
The White House has made an ad about how things are going, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative.


gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8106 on: August 02, 2020, 03:47:37 PM »
Ruprecht Polenz is a conservative German politician. This Tweet is aimed at the virus deniers.

Translates to: "Those are not Covidiots. The word downplays the goals of those manipulators. They are Third Position [1] ideologues who hate democracy. They try to construct an alternative reality with lies to form an opposition to the rule of law and freedom.



This is not an issue of right-wing vs. left-wing politics. This is a question of fascism vs. democracy. This virus is being instrumentalized to pull people into their ideology. And it is working. Some do it because they understand (the facists). Some do it because they don't understand (the Mitläufer [2]).

[1] "The Third Position is a set of neo-fascist political ideologies that developed in Western Europe following the Second World War." Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Position

[2] "]Mitläufer (German for "fellow traveler") refers to a public person or persons believed to be tied to or passively sympathizing of certain social movements, often to those that are prevalent, controversial or radical." Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitläufer
Yes I agree that PC policing, cancel-culture, easily triggered far left has fascist tendency in common with the far right.
Apart from that I don’t get the message.
Are you talking about Neven? Is he a post WWII neo-fascist? Fits him certainly but I wouldn’t go that far.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8107 on: August 02, 2020, 05:09:39 PM »
Hundreds of Coronavirus Infections at Georgia Camp Raise Tough Questions About Schools Reopening
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hundreds-of-coronavirus-infections-at-georgia-camp-raise-tough-questions-about-schools-reopening/ar-BB17skeO

Hundreds at a YMCA camp in north Georgia were infected with the coronavirus in a mere matter of days before it was shut down, according to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that could have broad implications for the ongoing debate about reopening schools. YMCA Camp High Harbour followed some but not all the CDC guidelines to prevent the spread of the coronavirus among the 597 campers and staff. A total of 260 children and staffers tested positive for COVID-19, amounting to more than three-quarters of the 344 people for whom the CDC was able to obtain results.

CDC Report
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm

... A total of 597 Georgia residents attended camp A. Median camper age was 12 years (range = 6–19 years), and 53% (182 of 346) were female. The median age of staff members and trainees was 17 years (range = 14–59 years), and 59% (148 of 251) were female.

Test results were available for 344 (58%) attendees; among these, 260 (76%) were positive. The overall attack rate was 44% (260 of 597), 51% among those aged 6–10 years, 44% among those aged 11–17 years, and 33% among those aged 18–21 years (Table).

Attack rates increased with increasing length of time spent at the camp, with staff members having the highest attack rate (56%). During June 21–27, occupancy of the 31 cabins averaged 15 persons per cabin (range = 1–26); median cabin attack rate was 50% (range = 22%–70%) among 28 cabins that had one or more cases.

Among 136 cases with available symptom data, 36 (26%) patients reported no symptoms; among 100 (74%) who reported symptoms, those most commonly reported were subjective or documented fever (65%), headache (61%), and sore throat (46%).

... attack rates presented are likely an underestimate because cases might have been missed among persons not tested or whose test results were not reported

These findings demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 spread efficiently in a youth-centric overnight setting, resulting in high attack rates among persons in all age groups, despite efforts by camp officials to implement most recommended strategies to prevent transmission. Asymptomatic infection was common and potentially contributed to undetected transmission, as has been previously reported (1–4).

This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (1–3) and, contrary to early reports (5,6), might play an important role in transmission (7,8). The multiple measures adopted by the camp were not sufficient to prevent an outbreak in the context of substantial community transmission

------------------------------

Young Kids, Adults May Have Same Amount of Coronavirus In Upper Airway
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/07/30/Young-kids-adults-may-have-same-amount-of-coronavirus-in-upper-airways/6081596116243/

Young children with mild or moderate COVID-19 may have the same or higher amounts of virus in their upper respiratory tracts as older children and adults, a study published Thursday by JAMA Pediatrics found.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.3651?guestAccessKey=df327a0d-b3d8-49ee-a482-76dc3116e6e6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=073020

This could indicate that [b<children age 5 and younger can "spread the virus as efficiently as adults,"[/b] study co-author Dr. Taylor Heald-Sargent told UPI.

The researchers sorted study participants into three groups: 46 young children age 5 and below, 51 children age 5 to 17 and 48 adults age 18 to 65.

Testing revealed that "young children have equivalent or more viral nucleic acid in their upper respiratory tract compared with older children and adults," the researchers wrote.

The upper respiratory tract includes the nose and nasal passages, sinuses, pharynx and the portion of the larynx above the vocal cords.

------------------------------

Student and Staffer Test Positive for Coronavirus at Indiana Schools, First State in U.S. to Reopen
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/indiana-schools-coronvirus-reopening-student-staffer-test-positive/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8108 on: August 02, 2020, 06:13:03 PM »
UK Data

At the beginning Boris thought he could follow the Trump playbook. Then the shit hit the fan & he got it too. But being Boris, he thought he could push the reopening timetable to an earlier start.

The data shows that daily new cases have risen from around 600 in mid-July to around 850-860 by 1 August, while daily deaths in the last 10 days have risen from 62 to 74.

It seems that the medics got Boris and his ministers in smoke-filled rooms & read the riot act mid-week. Hence the beginning of the about turn on re-opening.

Don't be surprised if Boris hits the GO button again before t is wise to do so.
_____________________________________________________________________
ps: I went on my bike to the local town on Friday evening for a bit of shopping. I passed a queue of youngsters outside their No 1 hang-out for the weekend - a big pub with live music.  They may feel they are invincible but they have parents, who have friends, and probably some have siblings with asthma and other conditions.
If that was social distancing come here & I'll give you a hug.
______________________________________________
ps: We have a friend who lives near the Welsh coast & Snowdonia. It is full-up to bursting with English tourists who normally go to Europe. Chaos. Pubs, cafes overflowing etc etc.
_______________
pps: Prognosis. We in the UK are stuffed.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8109 on: August 02, 2020, 06:29:04 PM »
US Data

Since the HHS in the White House took over control of data collection fom the CDC 10 days? 2 weeks? ago, the 7-day average of daily new reported cases has dropped from the (increasing) maximum of 69k on 21 July to 64k on the 1st August.

On the other hand the 7-day average of daily new reported DEATHS has increased from 834 on 21 July to 1,214 on the 1st August. Daily deaths were increasing before 21 July but at a much more gradual rate.

It is a terrible indictment of the White House to have to ask the question - "Do we trust the data?"


However, 60k+ daily new cases a day is circa 2 million per month.
1.2k+ of deaths per day is 35k+ deaths per month.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8110 on: August 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM »
WORLD DATA 1st August

Total reported cases 18.0 million.
Total reported deaths 688k.

Current 7-day trailing average
- Daily new reported cases - 260k, = nearly 8 million per month.
- Daily new reported deaths - 5.8k, = about 175k per month.

This thing is not under control
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jeju-islander

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8111 on: August 02, 2020, 06:50:24 PM »
First post from a long-time lurker on this site.
A site I have always enjoyed because of its collection, portrayal and  rational discussion of data on a topic that is often clouded with paranoid hysteria by those in the denialist community.
I visit this site primarily to look at the daily Arctic Sea Ice numbers, but noticed this COVID-19 thread in passing and was inspired to comment.

I live on Jeju Island, South Korea. This is a tourist island about 100 km south of the Korean mainland.
There has been no total lockdown here. In the last two months 1.2 million South Korean tourists have visited the island. There has been close to zero COVID-19 on the island. Zero deaths. Of the 26 confirmed cases, all but 23 were visitors from outside the island.

The successful strategy here is to test , trace and isolate.
Testing is free. The results are returned quickly, enabling rapid contact tracing and the isolation of all potentially infected persons.

It has been so puzzling to me that much of the rest of the world failed to put in place anything remotely similar.

I read Neven's linked 'Facts about Covid-19' and saw item 30.
Quote
A 2019 WHO study on measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”.
This statement seemed so bizarre to me that I read the linked WHO guidelines (It's not a WHO study)
WHO : Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza
The evidence against contact tracing is from four simulation studies. The conclusion
Quote
There is a very low overall quality of evidence that contact tracing has an unknown effect on the transmission of influenza.
. It seems odd to jump from this to  “not recommended in any circumstances”.
The most likely reason I can guess for the WHO to come out so firmly against contact tracing is this
Quote
contact tracing may not be an equitable intervention, because its successful implementation relies on availability of resources and technology.

Reading the WHO guidelines more fully I realise that the successful strategy chosen by South Korea, 'test , trace and isolate'. goes against advice in all 3 cases.
Why did the WHO get it so wrong? These are 2019 guidelines so have nothing to do with WHO subservience to China in 2020.

PS The verification questions are superb - Which river flows into the Laptev Sea !!! Great question. No wonder there are so few deniers on this site.

PPS After posting I got this message Warning - while you were typing 3 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post. Did I need to repost?

 

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8112 on: August 02, 2020, 07:51:38 PM »
Welcome Jeju!

As to the PPS. On active topics people type there things while you type yours. Basically when i get the warning i just check the new posts to see if it is the same i was about to post and if it is not you just hit post.

With a post like this with specific local info that change is zero so you could just hit post anyway.

PS: Forgot to mention that it is not related to your post being in moderation (that happens to the first few posts)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 07:59:19 PM by kassy »
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8113 on: August 02, 2020, 08:16:34 PM »
Quote
A 2019 WHO study on measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”.
This statement seemed so bizarre to me that I read the linked WHO guidelines (It's not a WHO study)
WHO : Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza

Hello, Jeju. Welcome to the forum.

I think you answered the question yourself. This is not about SARS-CoV-II but influenza. The guidelines on SARS-CoV-II do include the Test/Trace/Isolate (TeTrIs) recommendation.

Link >> https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/transmission-of-sars-cov-2-implications-for-infection-prevention-precautions

It has to be said though, the WHO is also a political instrument these days. They are not malicious, but sometimes ... let's say ... too compromised.

Quote
PPS After posting I got this message Warning - while you were typing 3 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post. Did I need to repost?

I find this to be pretty annoying. Gladly you can turn that off in the user settings.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8114 on: August 02, 2020, 08:29:33 PM »
To be honest, this thread has been a good source of information, and the debates in it helped me by pointing me towards different sources and different points of view.

Absolutely.  The content of this thread, and contributions by the impressive readership here, has been far more educational, useful, and valuable than any other single source I've seen.  This is true for arctic matters, climate matters, and Covid matters.

Bringing material from an anonymous website here is like bringing brown coal to Newcastle.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8115 on: August 02, 2020, 08:49:07 PM »
COVID-19 Hospital Data Is a Hot Mess After WH HHS Takes Control
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/covid-19-hospital-data-is-a-hot-mess-after-feds-take-control/

With weird discrepancies and fluctuations, COVID trackers say the data is less useful.

As COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US approach the highest levels seen in the pandemic so far, national efforts to track patients and hospital resources remain in shambles after the federal government abruptly seized control of data collection earlier this month.

For some hospitals, that data has to be harvested from various sources, such as electronic medical records, lab reports, pharmacy data, and administrative sources. The task has been particularly onerous for small, rural hospitals and hospitals that are already strained by a crush of COVID-19 patients.

https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/quick-pivot-new-hhs-covid-19-reporting-rules-meant-chaos-hospitals

... Amid all the administrative and technical hurdles, the national data on hospitalizations has become a hot mess. The COVID Tracking Project—which collects data on a variety of COVID-19 pandemic metrics—wrote in a blog post July 28 that US hospitalization data is no longer reliable.

https://covidtracking.com/blog/whats-going-on-with-covid-19-hospitalization-data

The blog noted that between July 20 and July 26, federal totals of currently hospitalized patients has been, on average, 24-percent higher than the totals reported by states. On a state-by-state level, some states are reporting fewer cases than the HHS, some are reporting more, and some federal data has significant day-to-day fluctuations not seen before the reporting transition.

In a July 30 update, the tracking project noted the continued problems, concluding: “Taken together, the gaps and uncertainties in the previously stable hospitalization data mean that this crucial indicator has become much less useful for understanding the true severity of COVID-19 outbreaks."

https://covidtracking.com/blog/cases-declining-deaths-rising-hospital-data-remains-a-question-mark

----------------------------------

COVID-19 Hospital Data System That Bypasses CDC Plagued By Delays, Inaccuracies
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/31/897429054/covid-19-hospital-data-system-that-bypasses-cdc-plagued-by-delays-inaccuracies

Earlier this month, when the Trump administration told hospitals to send crucial data about coronavirus cases and intensive care capacity to a new online system, it promised the change would be worth it. The data would be more complete and transparent and an improvement over the old platform run by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, administration officials said.

Instead, the public data hub created under the new system is updated erratically and is rife with inconsistencies and errors, data analysts say.

... The data now available to the public appears to be neither faster nor more complete.

When HHS took over the collection and reporting of this hospital capacity data, it promised to update "multiple times each day." Later, the agency walked that back to say it would be updated daily.

Those daily updates have yet to materialize. On Thursday, an HHS spokesperson told NPR via email, "We will be updating the site to make it clear that the estimates are only updated weekly."


The HHS Protect Public Data Hub, the public-facing website set up by HHS, offers three items as a "Hospital Utilization Snapshot," all of which have data that is over a week old

- A "Downloadable Dataset" estimating how many hospital beds are occupied by state — last updated on July 21.

- A table tallying the total number of hospital beds occupied across the country, which has not been updated since July 23.

- A map showing the percent of hospital beds occupied by state, which has not been updated since July 23.

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity

The only information about hospital capacity that appears to be updated regularly on the HHS Protect site is the percentage of hospitals that have submitted data in the past seven days.

But, the tallies do not include certain categories of hospitals, including rehabilitation or veterans' hospitals, which have suffered COVID-19 outbreaks. These rehabilitation and veterans' hospitals had previously been included in the data reported by CDC, says the official, who spoke to NPR on background because they were not authorized to speak on the record.

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/covid19-module

Anomalies

After the data reporting switch, unusual numbers started cropping up in data that show how many hospital beds are filled in a given state, data analysts say. In some states, the bed occupancy rates soared, even though the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients dropped or only increased modestly.

Take, for example, Arizona. Under the old system, in data last collected by CDC on July 14, an estimated 3,205 COVID-19 patients in Arizona occupied 24% of the state's inpatient hospital beds. After the switch to the new HHS reporting system, an analogous dataset posted by HHS showed 82 fewer COVID-19 patients hospitalized, but the bed occupancy rate had jumped to 42%. It's unclear how fewer patients could be occupying more hospital capacity.

There are similar anomalies in the data for other states, including Georgia and New Mexico.

In Colorado, the hospitalization data maintained by HHS conflicts with the state's data posted to a daily dashboard. As of July 30, the state dashboard lists 341 patients hospitalized in Colorado with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases. A dataset maintained by the HHS, updated on July 30, lists 491 patients in Colorado.

... Members of The COVID Tracking Project from The Atlantic describe the hospital capacity data as being "highly erratic in recent weeks," and noted that data has been missing or incomplete from many states, including California, Texas, South Carolina, Idaho, Missouri and Wyoming, because of complications related to switching reporting systems.

The organizers of the tracking website COVID Exit Strategy initially found the data provided by HHS Protect to be unusable. "It had some states like Rhode Island having an inpatient bed utilization of above 100%," says site co-founder Ryan Panchadsaram. "And Rhode Island is a state where hospitalizations are quite low for COVID."

---------------------------------

A Federal Data Failure Is Making It Hard to Talk About COVID
https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/07/federal-data-failure-making-it-hard-talk-about-covid/166988/

Without a standard, trusted language of COVID data collection, it’s been hard to measure the disease, track its trend, and build effective policy.

When it comes to the language of COVID, the United States stands in sharp contrast with the rest of the world. The Germans have their Robert Koch Institute—the country’s version of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—and its reports are a model of clarity and precision and political neutrality in nailing down the problem.

In the United Kingdom, there’s an up-to-the-minute dashboard of cases, hospitalizations, and the death rate, with the data broken down by region. Australia, likewise, has an easy-to-read “BeCovidSafe” dashboard that tracks the virus. In Canada, there’s a handy outbreak update. Japan has its COVID tracker powered by data from the prefectural governments, and Korea’s website builds on data from the country’s Central Disease Control Headquarters. In all these cases, the building blocks of data come from the government, and they drive the public debate.

In the United States, by contrast, the COVID language problem has been muddled from the beginning. The New York Times is reporting daily trends and hot spots based on data from county governments. For the Washington Post, data comes from the paper’s reporters and from the notable Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard, whose numbers in turn are compiled from a vast array of local and state public health departments. Then, of course, there’s the University of Washington COVID model, which builds on the Johns Hopkins Github, and the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, which has its own methodology.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8116 on: August 02, 2020, 09:10:00 PM »
First post from a long-time lurker on this site.
A site I have always enjoyed because of its collection, portrayal and  rational discussion of data on a topic that is often clouded with paranoid hysteria by those in the denialist community.
I visit this site primarily to look at the daily Arctic Sea Ice numbers, but noticed this COVID-19 thread in passing and was inspired to comment.

I live on Jeju Island, South Korea. This is a tourist island about 100 km south of the Korean mainland.
There has been no total lockdown here. In the last two months 1.2 million South Korean tourists have visited the island. There has been close to zero COVID-19 on the island. Zero deaths. Of the 26 confirmed cases, all but 23 were visitors from outside the island.

The successful strategy here is to test , trace and isolate.
Testing is free. The results are returned quickly, enabling rapid contact tracing and the isolation of all potentially infected persons.

It has been so puzzling to me that much of the rest of the world failed to put in place anything remotely similar.

I read Neven's linked 'Facts about Covid-19' and saw item 30.
Quote
A 2019 WHO study on measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”.
This statement seemed so bizarre to me that I read the linked WHO guidelines (It's not a WHO study)
WHO : Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza
The evidence against contact tracing is from four simulation studies. The conclusion
Quote
There is a very low overall quality of evidence that contact tracing has an unknown effect on the transmission of influenza.
. It seems odd to jump from this to  “not recommended in any circumstances”.
The most likely reason I can guess for the WHO to come out so firmly against contact tracing is this
Quote
contact tracing may not be an equitable intervention, because its successful implementation relies on availability of resources and technology.

Reading the WHO guidelines more fully I realise that the successful strategy chosen by South Korea, 'test , trace and isolate'. goes against advice in all 3 cases.
Why did the WHO get it so wrong? These are 2019 guidelines so have nothing to do with WHO subservience to China in 2020.

PS The verification questions are superb - Which river flows into the Laptev Sea !!! Great question. No wonder there are so few deniers on this site.

PPS After posting I got this message Warning - while you were typing 3 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post. Did I need to repost?
The WHO is a corrupt, murderous organization that always has the wrong memo for the wrong people to wave it wrongly in your face

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8117 on: August 02, 2020, 10:49:53 PM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8118 on: August 02, 2020, 10:57:52 PM »
People who think we shouldn't care about those becoming ill or even dying from this, and the people who categorically oppose countermeasures taken to prevent this from spreading are.

And of course, the ones who say it's a hoax, that it doesn't exist are.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8119 on: August 02, 2020, 11:32:16 PM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?

Probably not, and you wouldn't get an argument against it because it is true.

However, if you ignore that vulnerable population can easily have 2%-3% IFR, if you pretend like hospitals do not get overwhelmed or that the IFR can't hit 1% under many circumstances or that there is no risk and C19 is just a media spectacle to control our thoughts, then you are a risk denier.
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8120 on: August 02, 2020, 11:47:53 PM »
It's pretty clear to me that the media has actually vastly underplayed the severity of the virus.

What I haven't seen much of in the MSM (to the extent that I view it) are endless 'up close and personal' stories about victims of the disease, the suffering of their relatives...

Instead it has mostly been about the numbers and the experts and politics.

It is emotional personal stories that moves people to both care about the individual outcome as well as the larger issue, and that would prompt people to take the necessary precautions, whatever the policy makers end up doing. So while I lay the lion's share of blame for the disastrous US non-response to covid-19 at the feet of Trump and his hapless minions, I see the media as also partly to blame.

There are about 1000 stories of deaths a day they could cover, and many others of near deaths, etc. So it's not like there's a lack of freakin' material for them to work with. And they know full well what stories are most effective at changing hearts as well as minds...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8121 on: August 02, 2020, 11:49:25 PM »
Dr John Campbell has looked at peer reviewed research papers and Obesity is the highest risk factor for hospitalization with Covid-19 and deaths, followed by heart disease and diabetes. As western countries have higher rates for these three Comorbidities, the UK and USA has 30% and 40% Obesity

Higher diabetes rates and Obesity compared to Japan and South Korea/Asia. Factor in the UK and USA governments are more bothered about the Economy than saving lives in the Pandemic, opening bars and restaurants too soon. The smaller Democratic Socialist countries,Norway/Switzerland/Austria/Denmark/Iceland/New Zealand etc have handled the Pandemic far better.   


Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8122 on: August 03, 2020, 01:05:16 AM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?
It ultimately depends on what you think the IFR of "flu" is.
After the "unless" you show a red flag well-known from e.g. climate deniers: Fishing for (or cherry-picking of) excuses. Of course it takes several red flags for a plausible diagnosis. :)

--------------

Regarding the "flu" (sic scare quotes) mortality comparison (still problematic in this thread), attached is one of the best pieces of evidence (no "testing" or diagnosing involved, just plain simple death), European excess mortality over several years.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
Note it is not all European countries (e.g.only a fraction of Germany), and some don't have the Corona bump (guess why). The "flu" bumps before Corona were the deadliest in decades in some countries (google German Ärzteblatt on that).
Also note the minimal flu bump right before Corona.


« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 01:20:36 AM by Florifulgurator »
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8123 on: August 03, 2020, 01:25:20 AM »
Democratic Socialist countries
"Social Democratic" I insist, at least. (Bernie Sanders got his terminology wrong :) And even European right-wingers get universal healthcare right.)
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8124 on: August 03, 2020, 05:35:51 AM »
Lawmaker With COVID: My Health Choices Are Up To Me.

Critics: That’s What Women Assert.


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/louie-gohmert-pro-choice-covid-19_n_5f2601e0c5b6a34284bba54f

::::::::::::::

Americans Increasingly Believe U.S. Is Handling Coronavirus Worse Than Other Nations


In a new HuffPost/YouGov poll, just 19% say the country is doing better than most.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/poll-united-states-handling-coronavirus-worse-world_n_5f24947bc5b6a34284bac979
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8125 on: August 03, 2020, 06:04:22 AM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?
A. No
B. How widespread are these factors?
I think IFR should be presented for a typical existing human population, not for a theoretical healthy population of younger people with no obesity, no disease and lots of clean air and exercise.
From all I've seen, IFR for actual typical populations is 0.5%+, though small-sample data from various locations hints that there is not a single number for this.
Total population Fatality Rate, the one we get if we let the virus go wild until herd immunity is reached, seems to be at least 0.3% (which has already been reached in several locations) but probably higher. This would depend on both IFR and % needed for herd immunity, as well as on claimed factors such as that only 20% of the population can get infected while the rest are somehow immune, or that asymptomatics are much more prevalent than appears. TPFR can be measured with the highest accuracy in developed countries by looking at excess mortality or at confirmed and probable Covid deaths, and does not depend on testing policies. It does depend on social distancing measures so its run-in-the-wild maximum has not been measured yet anywhere.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8126 on: August 03, 2020, 09:19:27 AM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?

No. That just makes you misinformed

:)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8127 on: August 03, 2020, 09:31:35 AM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?

You'd not be far off the median figure from this recent meta-analysis of 0.27% (although observed IFRs varied massively depending on population age structure etc, from 0.00% to 1.63%)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3

But if this is your "at most" estimate, what is your own midrange estimate, and why?

Personally, my midrange estimate for the global population would be about 0.25%, but I'm very confident it would be above 0.05% and below 1.5%. 

EDIT: I'd also say we can be absolutely sure that it's above 0.009%, since that's the proportion of the world's population confirmed to have died from COVID so far. It's very likely also above 0.179%, since that's the highest nation or statewide confirmed COVID mortality as a share of the total population so far [seen in New Jersey], and obviously not everyone in New Jersey will have caught it, and some of the existing New Jersey cases will be yet to die from it.Possibly I should revise my estimates upwards... maybe to 0.18% for the low end, 0.5% for the midrange and 1.8% for the high end.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 10:00:58 AM by Paddy »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8128 on: August 03, 2020, 10:34:43 AM »
It is worth pointing out that the IFR is not a fixed amount. Since the momement it took its first victim the IFR is decreasing because vulnerable population is decreasing. In a few years if no vaccine, the instantaneous IFR will be well below 0.1%. The average and total IFR will depend on our response.
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RikW

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8129 on: August 03, 2020, 10:35:25 AM »
Well, even those numbers depend on how they register COVID deaths; If I have covid and die because of cardiac arrest; Is that counted as a COVID death? And did I die because of COVID? I could have had the cardiac arrest even if I didn't have COVID; Or not.

Or if I lose my job because of COVID and I can't afford health care anymore and die because of a cardiac arrest, but don't have COVID, is that a COVID death or not?

So even those statistics are multi interpretable, unfortunately;

Global Warming is much easier to prove I'd say and harder/weirder to deny I'd say...

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8130 on: August 03, 2020, 10:55:26 AM »
This is my understanding on how it is supposed to work. I am not a physician, but have been a healthcare worker with some familiarity on how things are supposed to work:

Quote
If I have covid and die because of cardiac arrest; Is that counted as a COVID death?

Most likely yes. COVID attacks the heart and respiratory system. The physician could conclude  COVID was not the cause of death depending on the evidence. But given what we know about COVID, it would requiere good evidence. For example, the patient presents no Covid symptoms and the heart condition was well known and with a fatal prognosis, death expected any second.

Quote
And did I die because of COVID?

Again, probably, but not necesarily. The physician makes that call.

Quote
Or if I lose my job because of COVID and I can't afford health care anymore and die because of a cardiac arrest, but don't have COVID, is that a COVID death or not?

Not by most counts used here.

Quote
So even those statistics are multi interpretable, unfortunately;

All statistics are. It is on you to understand them so you can interpret them in an optimal way.

Quote
Global Warming is much easier to prove I'd say and harder/weirder to deny I'd say...

Absolutely no way. To prove Covid 19 to you just have to go to an emergency room in a hotzone, or interview witnesses working in hospitals or maybe wait until you lose a loved one if you live in the US or Brazil.  Covid 19 is happenning in human time frames. Global warming is happenning in time frames that humans do not give much thought.

Global warming is more difficult to prove, but just as real and much more dangerous.
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Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8131 on: August 03, 2020, 11:54:31 AM »
The Swedish definition of a "Covid-19 death" is simple. If you die within 30 days of a positive PCR test, it is counted as a Covid-19 death.

Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8132 on: August 03, 2020, 12:34:57 PM »
Well, even those numbers depend on how they register COVID deaths; If I have covid and die because of cardiac arrest; Is that counted as a COVID death? And did I die because of COVID? I could have had the cardiac arrest even if I didn't have COVID; Or not.

Or if I lose my job because of COVID and I can't afford health care anymore and die because of a cardiac arrest, but don't have COVID, is that a COVID death or not?

So even those statistics are multi interpretable, unfortunately;

They are indeed multi-interpretable, but on the whole, I'd expect the confirmed COVID death figure to be an undercount. Definitions vary by country, but are generally dependent on having had a positive test, and a lot of people are reckoned to have died from COVID without ever having had a test, particularly earlier on in the pandemic and in lower resource settings.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8133 on: August 03, 2020, 03:45:50 PM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?

Do you recognize that there are lots of weasel words in there, in particular "unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play"?

That alone wouldn't make you a denier because it is almost certainly true if you push no 'low population health' to mean that everyone is a athlete and pollution to unrealistic levels. So you could pretty well always defend it but it could be pushed into being a completely irrelevant hypothetical.

So what is your reaction to following:

1) I suggest that an IFR isn't really an IFR unless it deals with a real world situation rather than an irrelevant hypothetical.

2) Does 1) above together with the following make your statement wrong?

What can we learn about the COVID fatality rate from Guayas?
total excess deaths looks like about 12k in a few weeks (out of 4.5 million, that’s over 0.25%).
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/05/blueskiesresearchorguk-what-can-we.html


harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8134 on: August 03, 2020, 04:06:09 PM »
First post from a long-time lurker on this site.
A site I have always enjoyed because of its collection, portrayal and  rational discussion of data on a topic that is often clouded with paranoid hysteria by those in the denialist community.
I visit this site primarily to look at the daily Arctic Sea Ice numbers, but noticed this COVID-19 thread in passing and was inspired to comment.

I live on Jeju Island, South Korea. This is a tourist island about 100 km south of the Korean mainland.
There has been no total lockdown here. In the last two months 1.2 million South Korean tourists have visited the island. There has been close to zero COVID-19 on the island. Zero deaths. Of the 26 confirmed cases, all but 23 were visitors from outside the island.

The successful strategy here is to test , trace and isolate.
Testing is free. The results are returned quickly, enabling rapid contact tracing and the isolation of all potentially infected persons.

It has been so puzzling to me that much of the rest of the world failed to put in place anything remotely similar.

I read Neven's linked 'Facts about Covid-19' and saw item 30.
Quote
A 2019 WHO study on measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”.
This statement seemed so bizarre to me that I read the linked WHO guidelines (It's not a WHO study)
WHO : Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza
The evidence against contact tracing is from four simulation studies. The conclusion
Quote
There is a very low overall quality of evidence that contact tracing has an unknown effect on the transmission of influenza.
. It seems odd to jump from this to  “not recommended in any circumstances”.
The most likely reason I can guess for the WHO to come out so firmly against contact tracing is this
Quote
contact tracing may not be an equitable intervention, because its successful implementation relies on availability of resources and technology.

Reading the WHO guidelines more fully I realise that the successful strategy chosen by South Korea, 'test , trace and isolate'. goes against advice in all 3 cases.
Why did the WHO get it so wrong? These are 2019 guidelines so have nothing to do with WHO subservience to China in 2020.

PS The verification questions are superb - Which river flows into the Laptev Sea !!! Great question. No wonder there are so few deniers on this site.

PPS After posting I got this message Warning - while you were typing 3 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post. Did I need to repost?

 


The current coronavirus situation in the US has given the world a glimpse into the level of dysfunction and chaos of the United States.

We hold the world's reserve currency, and control the majority of the planets capital - but on a day to day basis the US is one of the most socially dysfunctional countries in the developed world.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8135 on: August 03, 2020, 04:07:23 PM »
The debate is getting a little violent. People are fighting over statistics (both current and future), measures to be taken, and now about the morality of some of the posters and the arguments they put forward.

As far as statistics are concerned: we can make guesses on current and future infections, and current and future death rates, but that’s all they are: guesses. We won’t be able to see accurate figures for at least two years, and maybe not even then. Probably the best the experts will be able to do is compare death rates with normal years, and come up with a figure which isn’t “death by Covid” nor “death with Covid”, but “deaths because of Covid”. This figure will include such things as suicide following bankruptcy or grief, but will also be reduced by the enforced rest (lockdown), fewer vehicle accidents, fewer drunken arguments etc.

Current figures are inflated by media overdramatisation, by political figures making political capital, even by hospitals which can claim more for a COVID-19 patient than an “ordinary” one. They are deflated by politicians “proving” that they have things under control, by under-reporting in many parts of the world, and sometimes by families of the victims who feel that there’s some sort of stigma attached to being sick because of the virus rather than something else.

All this generates a huge amount of noise, a lot of heat, but very little light. I wish people would accept that there are things that we don’t know and can’t know, and stop attacking people who think differently.

What do I think? I’m an optimist by temperament. A lifetime of experience has taught me that things are never as good as I hope they’ll be, but conversely never as bad as I fear. I believe that one day this will be behind us, without too much damage – deaths, disability, economic pain – and we’ll have learned valuable lessons that will mitigate the next pandemic, and the one after that.

Yes, I’m an optimist by temperament; but I’m a pessimist by policy. I take all possible precautions to keep myself out of the hospital – no unnecessary trips out, social distancing, mask-wearing, disinfecting self and objects I touch, or others touch. If I see a crowd, I avoid it. While the weather’s good, I’ll eat and drink in the garden as much as I can. I walk a lot, but mainly in places where there aren’t people – there’s an industrial estate five minutes away which is deserted on Sundays and every evening.

So I’m keeping myself and others as safe as I can, even though the figures are still showing less than one death in a thousand. I might be wrong to hope – hell, I might be dead of it in a week – but I’m not going to get hysterical about it. I’ll just get on with living. So there!
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8136 on: August 03, 2020, 04:38:00 PM »
The Six Strains of SARS-CoV-2
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-strains-sars-cov-.html



... Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation—the S strain—appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.

"Strain G and its related strains GR and GH are by far the most widespread, representing 74% of all gene sequences we analyzed," says Giorgi. "They present four mutations, two of which are able to change the sequence of the RNA polymerase and Spike proteins of the virus. This characteristic probably facilitates the spread of the virus."

If we look at the coronavirus map, we can see that strains G and GR are the most frequent across Europe and Italy. According to the available data, GH strain seems close to non-existence in Italy, while it occurs more frequently in France and Germany. This seems to confirm the effectiveness of last months' containment methods.

In North America, the most widespread strain is GH, while in South America we find the GR strain more frequently. In Asia, where the Wuhan L strain initially appeared, the spread of strains G, GH and GR is increasing. These strains landed in Asia only at the beginning of March, more than a month after their spread in Europe.

Globally, strains G, GH and GR are constantly increasing. Strain S can be found in some restricted areas in the U.S. and Spain. The L and V strains are gradually disappearing.

... "Rare genomic mutations are less than 1% of all sequenced genomes," confirms Giorgi. "However, it is fundamental that we study and analyze them so that we can identify their function and monitor their spread. All countries should contribute to the cause by giving access to data about the virus genome sequences."

Daniele Mercatelli et al. Geographic and Genomic Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Mutations, Frontiers in Microbiology (2020)
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01800/full

--------------------------------------

Ancient Part of Immune System May Underpin Severe COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-ancient-immune-underpin-severe-covid-.html

One of the immune system's oldest branches, called complement, may be influencing the severity of COVID-19 disease, according to a new study from researchers at Columbia University Irving Medical Center

... If complement and coagulation influence severity of COVID, people with pre-existing hyperactive complement or coagulation disorders should be more susceptible to the virus.

That led Shapira and Tatonetti to look at COVID patients with macular degeneration, an eye disease caused by overactive complement, as well as common coagulation disorders like thrombosis and hemorrhage.

... Among 11,000 COVID patients who came to Columbia University Irving Medical Center with suspected COVID-19, the researchers found that over 25% of those with age-related macular degeneration died, compared to the average mortality rate of 8.5%, and roughly 20% required intubation. The greater mortality and intubation rates could not be explained by differences in the age or sex of the patients.

"Complement is also more active in obesity and diabetes," Shapira says, "and may help explain, at least in part, why people with those conditions also have a greater mortality risk from COVID."

People with a history of coagulation disorders also were at increased risk of dying from COVID infection.

More evidence linking severe COVID with coagulation and complement comes from a genetic analysis of thousands of COVID patients from the U.K. Biobank, which contains medical records and genetic data on half a million people.

The authors found that variants of several genes that influence complement or coagulation activity are associated with more severe COVID symptoms that required hospitalization.

"Immune complement and coagulation functions in adverse outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection," Nature Medicine (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1021-2

---------------------------------

Texas Pauses Virus Reporting (3:33 p.m. NY)
https://bloomberg.com

Texas isn’t reporting coronavirus data on Sunday to allow for what the state website called “a scheduled upgrade to the system that processes reports.” The Department of State Human Services said the data will be reported on Monday.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8137 on: August 03, 2020, 05:20:27 PM »
At some point people like Neven and myself are probably going to stop reading this thread, and more and more of the chicken littles in this thread will join us thereafter, leaving those with their heads stuck in the sand to enjoy their miserable self-imposed quarantines over a virus which has generated an enormous amount of hysteria, a minor amount justified, a majority of which is completely nonsensical and extremely destructive.

It is interesting watching the faction of posters who take NYT & WaPo drivel for gospel diverge from the common narrative of the reality shared by people like Neven, myself, and many others here. They are becoming increasingly unhinged and seemingly more willing to impose fascist and totalitarian beliefs and tactics on anyone who disagrees with their increasingly warped worldview.

As a survivor of the Great Death-Ing of NYC in 2020, who was immersed and subsumed in sirens, silence, and solitude for a fifty-day period this springtime during the height of the pandemic's impact here, I can say these hysterical reactions by many are totally unfounded. What should be a brief period of horribleness in most locations is being prolonged into an excuse for all the Little Eichmanns to come out of the closet and assert their dominance on society. The Banality of Evil by Hannah Arendt is important reading and illuminates this most tedious tendency to terrible deeds that are seemingly innocuous but cumulatively are severely harmful.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8138 on: August 03, 2020, 05:31:27 PM »
Data Leak Reveals Iran Cover-Up On COVID-19 Deaths: BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53598965

A BBC Persian service investigation has found the number of deaths from COVID-19 in Iran is nearly triple what Iran's government claims.

The government's own records appear to show almost 42,000 people died with COVID-19 symptoms up to 20 July, versus 14,405 reported by its health ministry.

The number of people known to be infected is also almost double the official figures: 451,024 as opposed to 278,827.


In recent weeks, it has suffered a second steep rise in the number of cases.

A level of undercounting, largely due to testing capacity, is seen across the world, but the information leaked to the BBC reveals Iranian authorities have reported significantly lower daily numbers despite having a record of all deaths - suggesting they were deliberately suppressed.

... The new data includes details of daily admissions to hospitals across Iran, including names, age, gender, symptoms, date and length of periods spent in hospital, and underlying conditions patients might have.

The details on lists correspond to those of some living and deceased patients already known to the BBC.

... Tehran, the capital, has the highest number of deaths with 8,120 people who died with Covid-19 or symptoms similar to it.

The city of Qom, the initial epicentre of the virus in Iran, is worst hit proportionally, with 1,419 deaths - that is one death with Covid-19 for every 1,000 people.

It is notable that, across the country, 1,916 deaths were non-Iranian nationals. This indicates a disproportionate number of deaths amongst migrants and refugees, who are mostly from neighbouring Afghanistan.



The initial rise of deaths is far steeper than Health Ministry figures and by mid-March it was five times the official figure.

Lockdown measures were imposed over the Nowruz (Iranian New Year) holidays at the end of the third week in March, and there was a corresponding decline in cases and deaths.

But as government restrictions were relaxed, the cases and deaths started to rise again after late-May.

Crucially the first recorded death on the leaked list occurred on 22 January, a month before the first case of coronavirus was officially reported in Iran.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8139 on: August 03, 2020, 05:42:42 PM »
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020

Those, such as the UK's chief scientist,  that thought doing an analysis of excess mortality would change where the UK was relative to other European countries were right. When looking at age-standardised excess mortality, the UK is no longer in a statistical tie for the worst COVID outbreak in Europe, its out on its own as clearly the worst.

There are two reasons for this: the whole country had excess mortality, while it was regional elsewhere in Europe, and mortality stayed high for longer. The worst week in many Italian and Spanish regions was worse than the worst week in a British region, but much of Italy and a lot of Spain did not see any significant excess mortality, while every region of Britain did.

There's a further feature of the UK epidemic, under 65s were hit much harder than elsewhere in Europe. Italy (Bergamo) has the worst regional peak, Spain has the worst national peak and the worst major cities peaks (Madrid and Barcelona), England has the worst peak in the under 65s. Excess mortality in Madrid peaked at about 6x normal for the over 65s, and about 3x normal for the under 65s. In London they both peaked at about 3x normal mortality. Outside of the UK and Spain, its quite hard to spot any excess mortality in the under 65s at all. There are blips, but even in countries with major outbreaks like France and Belgium, if you don't know the blips coincide with COVID outbreaks, they'd be taken for natural variation.

Lots of graphics, so if you want to see where the mortality was and when it happened in Spain or Sweden or France or Italy there's a tool in the report that displays that.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8140 on: August 03, 2020, 05:50:06 PM »
The debate is getting a little violent. People are fighting over statistics (both current and future), measures to be taken, and now about the morality of some of the posters and the arguments they put forward.

As far as statistics are concerned: we can make guesses on current and future infections, and current and future death rates, but that’s all they are: guesses. We won’t be able to see accurate figures for at least two years, and maybe not even then. Probably the best the experts will be able to do is compare death rates with normal years, and come up with a figure which isn’t “death by Covid” nor “death with Covid”, but “deaths because of Covid”. This figure will include such things as suicide following bankruptcy or grief, but will also be reduced by the enforced rest (lockdown), fewer vehicle accidents, fewer drunken arguments etc.

Current figures are inflated by media overdramatisation, by political figures making political capital, even by hospitals which can claim more for a COVID-19 patient than an “ordinary” one. They are deflated by politicians “proving” that they have things under control, by under-reporting in many parts of the world, and sometimes by families of the victims who feel that there’s some sort of stigma attached to being sick because of the virus rather than something else.

All this generates a huge amount of noise, a lot of heat, but very little light. I wish people would accept that there are things that we don’t know and can’t know, and stop attacking people who think differently.

What do I think? I’m an optimist by temperament. A lifetime of experience has taught me that things are never as good as I hope they’ll be, but conversely never as bad as I fear. I believe that one day this will be behind us, without too much damage – deaths, disability, economic pain – and we’ll have learned valuable lessons that will mitigate the next pandemic, and the one after that.

Yes, I’m an optimist by temperament; but I’m a pessimist by policy. I take all possible precautions to keep myself out of the hospital – no unnecessary trips out, social distancing, mask-wearing, disinfecting self and objects I touch, or others touch. If I see a crowd, I avoid it. While the weather’s good, I’ll eat and drink in the garden as much as I can. I walk a lot, but mainly in places where there aren’t people – there’s an industrial estate five minutes away which is deserted on Sundays and every evening.

So I’m keeping myself and others as safe as I can, even though the figures are still showing less than one death in a thousand. I might be wrong to hope – hell, I might be dead of it in a week – but I’m not going to get hysterical about it. I’ll just get on with living. So there!

You make some excellent points.  I believe that the best statistic is excess deaths attributed to the virus, which is simple the total number of deaths less the expected number.  This includes all extraneous causes, including changes in suicides, accidents, other illness, etc. 

"Across the United States, there were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. In comparison, there were an estimated 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) excess deaths during the same period."

file:///C:/Users/kz6hk2/Downloads/jamainternal_weinberger_2020_oi_200051.pdf

The number of excess deaths has declined to within the baseline range in July.

<Isn´t that a result of the don´t report to CDC edict? kassy>
« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 07:08:01 PM by kassy »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8141 on: August 03, 2020, 06:13:27 PM »
I’m an optimist by temperament. A lifetime of experience has taught me that things are never as good as I hope they’ll be, but conversely never as bad as I fear. I believe that one day this will be behind us, without too much damage – deaths, disability, economic pain – and we’ll have learned valuable lessons that will mitigate the next pandemic, and the one after that.

Yes, I’m an optimist by temperament; but I’m a pessimist by policy. I take all possible precautions to keep myself out of the hospital – no unnecessary trips out, social distancing, mask-wearing, disinfecting self and objects I touch, or others touch. If I see a crowd, I avoid it. While the weather’s good, I’ll eat and drink in the garden as much as I can. I walk a lot, but mainly in places where there aren’t people – there’s an industrial estate five minutes away which is deserted on Sundays and every evening.
I have highlighted what I think may be inherent contradictions in your post

Our economies depend on activity resulting in consumption. Your lifestyle sounds like you only buy stuff by going shopping when you have to. i.e. you have discarded some, maybe many inessential economic activities.

If everybody is as sensible as you the economy may never recover. Our economies require consumption - much of which is throwaway.

ps: I am doing the same -  my economic activity has been, is, and will be significantly lower than it was.

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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8142 on: August 03, 2020, 06:35:42 PM »
I have highlighted what I think may be inherent contradictions in your post

Our economies depend on activity resulting in consumption. Your lifestyle sounds like you only buy stuff by going shopping when you have to. i.e. you have discarded some, maybe many inessential economic activities.

If everybody is as sensible as you the economy may never recover. Our economies require consumption - much of which is throwaway.

ps: I am doing the same -  my economic activity has been, is, and will be significantly lower than it was.
Not really contradictions. Quite some time back I saw the societal pressures towards overconsumption and rejected them. I live at the edge of a small town. Fifteen minutes’ walk to the town centre, ten minutes to the rail station and to my work, two minutes to the bus stop. I mostly walk everywhere. On Friday I was loaded down, so took a bus home. That was the first time I’ve been inside any vehicle since lockdown in late March, but over the last ten years I’ve often gone a month or two going everywhere on foot.

I don’t drive. I rarely eat out or go to a bar. I’ve flown twice – once to Spain, once back – in the last four years. Overconsumption is killing the planet, and I’ve tried to reduce my impact as much as I can. As you say, if everyone does the same, the world economy goes into a tailspin. It needs to, in my opinion. But it won’t be the end of civilisation. If you went back to the 16th century and told them that in 500 years less than five percent of the people would be working on the land, the response would be “but then the other 95 percent would starve!”

We’re an adaptive species. We’ll find new ways of taking in each other’s washing, I’m sure.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8143 on: August 03, 2020, 06:43:07 PM »
If everybody is as sensible as you the economy may never recover. Our economies require consumption - much of which is throwaway.

Sorry for off-topic, just briefly: This is exactly what we have to do. Nothing short of that. Stop buying gewgaw. That would make a huge difference. Economy will adopt!

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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8144 on: August 03, 2020, 07:06:06 PM »
Outside of the UK and Spain, its quite hard to spot any excess mortality in the under 65s at all. There are blips, but even in countries with major outbreaks like France and Belgium, if you don't know the blips coincide with COVID outbreaks, they'd be taken for natural variation.

That was surprising for me, but yes, it EuroMoMo shows that too:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
France has a bit of a peak for 45 - 64 year olds, at z = 9.5.

But this looks like an effect of the fact that deaths in this age group come in small numbers. It is easier to see such effects the larger a country is. Or for Europe as a whole. And then one sees that the cumulative number of excess deaths in Europe in this age group is now thrice as high in 2019. Or double as high in 2018. (Unclear to me what baseline is.)
« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 07:15:29 PM by pietkuip »

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8145 on: August 03, 2020, 07:26:36 PM »
The number of excess deaths has declined to within the baseline range in July.

<Isn´t that a result of the don´t report to CDC edict? kassy>


That or fewer people are dying.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8146 on: August 03, 2020, 07:26:52 PM »
Has the Summit Supercomputer Cracked COVID's Code?
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/computing/hardware/has-the-summit-supercomputer-cracked-the-covid-code

A supercomputer-powered genetic study of COVID-19 patients has spawned a possible breakthrough into how the novel coronavirus causes disease—and points toward new potential therapies to treat its worst symptoms.

The genetic data mining research uncovered a common pattern of gene activity in the lungs of symptomatic COVID-19 patients, which when compared to gene activity in healthy control populations revealed a mechanism that appears to be a key weapon in the coronavirus’s arsenal.

... The mechanism, detailed in Jacobson’s group’s new paper in the journal eLife, centers around a compound the body produces to regulate blood pressure, called bradykinin. A healthy body produces small amounts of bradykinin to dilate blood vessels and make them more permeable. Which typically lowers blood pressure.


A normal blood vessel, shown at left, is compared with a blood vessel affected by excess bradykinin. A hyperactive bradykinin system permits fluid, shown in yellow, to leak out and allows immune cells, shown in purple, to squeeze their way out of blood vessels.

However, Jacobson said, lung fluid samples from COVID-19 patients consistently revealed over-expression of genes that produce bradykinin, while also under-expressing genes that would inhibit or break down bradykinin.

In other words, the new finding predicts a hyper-abundance of bradykinin in a coronavirus patient’s body at the points of infection, which can have well-known and sometimes deadly consequences. As Jacobson’s paper notes, extreme bradykinin levels in various organs can lead to dry coughs, myalgia, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, headaches, decreased cognitive function, arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death. All of which have been associated with various manifestations of COVID-19.

... Another genetic tendency this work revealed was up-regulation in the production of hyaluronic acid. This compound is slimy to the touch. In fact, it’s the primary component in snail slime. And it has the remarkable property of being able to absorb 1000 times its own weight in water.

The team also discovered evidence of down-regulated genes in COVID patients that might otherwise have kept hyaluronic acid levels in check. So with fluid inundating the lungs and gels that absorb those fluids being over-produced as well, a coronavirus patient’s lung, Jacobson said, “fills up with a jello-like hydrogel.”

“One of the causes of death is people are basically suffocating,” Jacobson said. “And we may have found the mechanisms responsible for how this gets out of control, why all the fluid is leaking in, why you’re now producing all this hyaluronic acid—this gelatin-like substance—in your lung, and possibly why there are all these inflammatory responses.”

Jacobson’s group’s paper then highlights ten possible therapies developed for other conditions that might also address the coronavirus's "bradykinin storm" problem. Potential therapies include compounds like icatibant, danazol, stanozolol, ecallantide, berinert, cinryze and haegarda, all of whose predicted effect is to reduce bradykinin levels in a patient. Even Vitamin D, whose observed deficiency in COVID-19 patients is also explained by the group’s research, could play a role in future COVID-19 therapies.

Garvin, M., Jacobson, D., et.al.A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm eLite, (2020)
https://elifesciences.org/articles/59177
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8147 on: August 03, 2020, 09:05:00 PM »

As a survivor of the Great Death-Ing of NYC in 2020, who was immersed and subsumed in sirens, silence, and solitude for a fifty-day period this springtime during the height of the pandemic's impact here, I can say these hysterical reactions by many are totally unfounded. What should be a brief period of horribleness in most locations is being prolonged into an excuse for all the Little Eichmanns to come out of the closet and assert their dominance on society. The Banality of Evil by Hannah Arendt is important reading and illuminates this most tedious tendency to terrible deeds that are seemingly innocuous but cumulatively are severely harmful.

The damage has already been done.  The changes effectuated by this virus are permanent and our lives will never be the same again.

For example, the FED cannot un-print the multiple trillions of USD it debased to try to prevent a fullscale economic crash that would have reduced our civilization to a state of collapse.

Whether it's 0.2%CFR or 1.2%CFR the situation is permanent, our quality of life has taken a new step down, and the long term permanent effects of the virus will be a new price for being a human.


bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8148 on: August 03, 2020, 09:20:28 PM »

As a survivor of the Great Death-Ing of NYC in 2020, who was immersed and subsumed in sirens, silence, and solitude for a fifty-day period this springtime during the height of the pandemic's impact here, I can say these hysterical reactions by many are totally unfounded. What should be a brief period of horribleness in most locations is being prolonged into an excuse for all the Little Eichmanns to come out of the closet and assert their dominance on society. The Banality of Evil by Hannah Arendt is important reading and illuminates this most tedious tendency to terrible deeds that are seemingly innocuous but cumulatively are severely harmful.

The damage has already been done.  The changes effectuated by this virus are permanent and our lives will never be the same again.

For example, the FED cannot un-print the multiple trillions of USD it debased to try to prevent a fullscale economic crash that would have reduced our civilization to a state of collapse.

Whether it's 0.2%CFR or 1.2%CFR the situation is permanent, our quality of life has taken a new step down, and the long term permanent effects of the virus will be a new price for being a human.
The Fed didn't debase anything. For it to have been debased, other central banks would have to have been printing $ at a slower rate, and most have been printing as fast or faster than the Fed.

The US is an island of stability amidst the sea of global crisis and this will become more obvious as the virus explodes in the winter and the EURO probably crashes alongside the Yuan. You can bet against the dollar or you can be sensible, it is your choice. lol.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8149 on: August 03, 2020, 09:58:11 PM »
Severe Covid-19 Can Lead to Kidney Injury or Failure, Medical Studies Reveal
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/severe-covid-19-can-lead-to-kidney-failure-medical-studies-reveal.html

As the mysteries of Covid-19 unfold, doctors and medical experts are studying an alarming trend: kidney damage in patients with serious illness.

Since February, the American Society of Nephrology Covid-19 Response Team has been studying the phenomenon at hospitals across the country and it is raising concerns of what is needed for treatment.

“What we have observed is that approximately 10% to 50% of patients with severe Covid-19 that go into intensive care have kidney failure that requires some form of dialysis,” said Dr. Alan Kliger, co-chair of the team. As he explains, many have had no underlying health conditions, or problems with their kidneys before contracting the virus.

At Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, 46% of patients that were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 had some form of acute kidney injury. Of those 17% required urgent dialysis.

----------------------------------

Outbreaks In Florida, Texas, California and Arizona Begin to Decline
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Coronavirus outbreaks that have torn through Sun Belt states like California, Florida, Texas and Arizona for weeks have started to decline, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. As of Sunday, cases in Texas have fallen more than 8% over the previous week, hitting roughly 7,723 daily new cases based on a seven-day moving average, according to Johns Hopkins data.

Meanwhile, Florida reported a more than 14% drop in its seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases Sunday, and Arizona reported a more than 10% drop, according to Johns Hopkins data. California’s cases are also slowly starting to trend down, with the state reporting a more than 8% drop in its seven-day average.

Although cases appear to be descending, Covid-19 deaths have been on the rise since early July. The U.S. reported an additional 1,047 deaths based on a seven-day average on Sunday, a near 15% increase compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. California hit a record-high seven-day average on Sunday, growing nearly 30% compared with a week ago.



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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late