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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 349773 times)

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8150 on: August 03, 2020, 10:19:52 PM »
To all the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-everything people, this is the logical conclusion of “freedom”.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8151 on: August 04, 2020, 01:38:00 AM »
Without Seasonal Workers, Australia May Face a Hungry Summer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/04/without-seasonal-workers-australia-may-face-a-hungry-summer

With not enough workers to pick the upcoming harvest, Australia faces potential food shortages, and its farmers face economic devastation, writes Michael Rose, a research fellow and anthropologist at the Australian National University.

We are sailing into a food shortage and few are talking about it. This needs to change.

In essence the issue is this: a large proportion of Australia’s harvest labour is done by people from abroad who are unable to travel. As the months tick down towards the summer harvest there are simply not enough people to pick the fruit.

If this doesn’t change the result is likely to be shortages and price rises for horticultural products and, even more seriously, devastating hardship for our primary producers

--------------------------------

Tests: 2.5% of Italians Had COVID-19, Far More In the North
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/tests-25-italians-covid-19-north-72151539

About 1.5 million Italians - 2.5% of the population of Italy- may have already contracted coronavirus, nationwide antibody tests indicate, according to the Associated Press. But officials said Monday that huge geographic variations in the results confirmed a nationwide lockdown was “absolutely crucial” to preventing the country's south from getting slammed as badly as its north.

The figure, announced by health officials on Monday, is six times the number of confirmed cases in Italy’s official virus tally. The results — viewed with the country’s overall death toll of close to 35,000 —align with a 2.3% estimated mortality rate of the virus.

There were significant geographic disparities: An estimated 7.5% of the Lombardy region's residents had virus antibodies versus 1.9% in neighboring Veneto. Within Lombardy, sharp differences also emerged from province to province: Some 24% of Bergamo residents developed virus antibodies, but only 5.1% of residents did a few provinces over in Pavia.

The variations were even more stark when compared to southern Italy: Only 0.3% of residents in Sicily came into contact with the virus, and less than 1% of residents had virus antibodies in a half-dozen other southern regions.

Locatelli said the results also indicated that 27.3% of the people with the virus experienced no symptoms, demonstrating the need for continued social distancing and mask requirements. He stressed that the tests were not looking at whether the antibodies provided protection against the virus going forward, just the tested individuals had come into contact with the virus.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jeju-islander

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8152 on: August 04, 2020, 06:09:54 AM »
-
The South Korean strategy to beat Covid19 is 'test, trace, isolate'.
To compare how this strategy is working I will use the data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.
They have a map showing the relative success of testing in each country at
Worldwide:  Covid-19 Tests vs tracing targets./

Scroll down the list of counties on the Daily Testing map to see that South Korea is at the end. It has been in this position for many months. Further down the page you will see a description of how this data is created.
Quote
Total Tests (Contact Tracing and Isolation): Estimated number of tests needed given a strategy of testing all symptomatic individuals and contacts of those with positive tests.

By looking at the Positive Test Rate map we see that South Korea is no longer number 1. This is because countries with very few positive cases such as Vietnam and New Zealand will find very few even if they do a large number of tests. Hence it is possible to get similar results overall in containing the virus with mass testing or targeted testing. I believe the targeted approach is better.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8153 on: August 04, 2020, 09:07:16 AM »
Tests: 2.5% of Italians Had COVID-19, Far More In the North
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/tests-25-italians-covid-19-north-72151539

About 1.5 million Italians - 2.5% of the population of Italy- may have already contracted coronavirus, nationwide antibody tests indicate, according to the Associated Press. But officials said Monday that huge geographic variations in the results confirmed a nationwide lockdown was “absolutely crucial” to preventing the country's south from getting slammed as badly as its north.

Officials would say things like that.

But Sweden also has enormous regional disparities in covid rates. Here in the South of the country we hardly had any (so far). Sweden did not have a lockdown. There only was an official advisory not to travel further than about one or two hours travel, which was generally adhered to, for example around the Easter and Ascension Day weekends.

That advisory was retracted at the beginning of summer (no catastrophic spread since then). The advisory to work from home as much as possible will remain in force for the rest of 2020.

No mask advisory so far. The Health Authority does not want to dilute the message to stay home when sick.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 09:13:33 AM by pietkuip »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8154 on: August 04, 2020, 10:03:08 AM »
Sweden is proof of what compliance to the simplest sanitary measures can do in Sweden like environments.

However, expecting Florida to obtain the same results as Sweden is madness.

Also, let's remember their 10-20 fold death toll relative to other Sweden like environments (Norway, Finland). It applies to any country that chooses to keep their R~1 at high levels of viral prevalence.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8155 on: August 04, 2020, 11:22:23 AM »
Norway and Finland are not Sweden-like environments. Don't be racist, as BK would say.  ;)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8156 on: August 04, 2020, 11:38:18 AM »
I wouldn't say comparing countries is racist. Never have.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8157 on: August 04, 2020, 12:47:51 PM »
But the assumption that they're all the same is racist in a way, no?

The Dutch government announced a travel warning to Croatia two weeks ago, with apparantly no good reason, except perhaps that number of cases were rising exponentially in neighbouring Bosnia and Serbia. You know, all those Balkan Yugo countries are all the same.

Norway, Finland, Sweden, they're all the same. Just like Asian and African countries. All the same.  ;D

In the interview with Anders Tegnell I posted last week, he explains that you can't compare countries one-on-one, and that Norway and Denmark are different from Sweden in many ways.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 12:56:04 PM by Neven »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8158 on: August 04, 2020, 01:32:34 PM »
No two countries are identical but some are similar. I would think the Scandinavian countries with similar backgrounds would be more alike each other than they would be to, say, China or Nigeria.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8159 on: August 04, 2020, 01:34:39 PM »
Sweden is proof of what compliance to the simplest sanitary measures can do in Sweden like environments.

"Sweden like environment" is a broad variable meant to include the many significant similarities between the three countries in the Penninsula.

Need a map?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Scandinavian+Peninsula/@61.9219194,5.7502141,5z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x4669573c03c54397:0xcfd3f139ce609640!8m2!3d62.2786475!4d12.3401709

Quote
But the assumption that they're all the same is racist in a way, no?

Yes. It is. That is probably why you assume that "Sweden like environments" means "all the people in the scandinavian peninsula are the same". That is not what I wrote. That is merely what you read.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8160 on: August 04, 2020, 03:30:18 PM »
How the Pandemic Defeated America
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/coronavirus-american-failure/614191/
Quote
Despite ample warning, the U.S. squandered every possible opportunity to control the coronavirus. And despite its considerable advantages—immense resources, biomedical might, scientific expertise—it floundered. While countries as different as South Korea, Thailand, Iceland, Slovakia, and Australia acted decisively to bend the curve of infections downward, the U.S. achieved merely a plateau in the spring, which changed to an appalling upward slope in the summer. “The U.S. fundamentally failed in ways that were worse than I ever could have imagined,” Julia Marcus, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School, told me.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8161 on: August 04, 2020, 04:03:12 PM »
Trump Nursing Home Plan Limits Supply of Free COVID-19 Tests
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-nursing-home-plan-limits-supply-free-covid-19-tests-n1235733

The Trump administration's plan to provide every nursing home with a fast COVID-19 testing machine comes with an asterisk: The government will not supply enough test kits to check staff and residents beyond an initial couple of rounds.

A programme that sounded like a game changer when it was announced last month at the White House is now prompting concerns that it could turn into another unfulfilled promise for nursing homes, whose residents and staff represent a tiny share of the US population but account for as many as four in 10 coronavirus deaths, according to some estimates.

"I think the biggest fear is that the instruments may be delivered but it won't do any good, if you don't have the test kits," said George Linial, president of Leading Age of Texas, a group that represents nursing homes.

The weekly cost of testing employees could range from more than $19,000 to nearly $38,000, according to estimates by the national organisation.

Adm. Brett Giroir, the Health and Human Services department’s “testing czar,” recently told reporters that the government would only supply enough kits to test residents once and staff twice.

The program is on track to deliver 2,400 fast-test machines and hundreds of thousands of test kits by mid-August, Giroir said, with the devices and supplies first going to nursing homes in virus hot spots.

However, informational materials from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, say getting a machine to every nursing home could take 14 weeks. That would mean deliveries may not be completed until early November. In Texas alone there are more than 1,200 nursing homes, Linial said, and only a few dozen have gotten them.

... “Doing one round of testing doesn’t really solve the problem in a pandemic that could last months or years.”

The Trump administration said each of the nation’s 15,400 nursing homes could cover the cost of ongoing testing from a $5bn pot provided by Congress, and allocated to the facilities by the White House. [... or they could buy PPE; just not both]

... Nursing homes have other concerns about the program, beyond costs.

For example, antigen tests can sometimes return a negative result when a person actually has the virus. A government guidance document for nursing homes says the tests “do not rule out” COVID-19.

Nursing homes that have begun getting the machines may also be in the dark about how to operate them correctly.

The administration says the manufacturers of the machines are supposed to provide training and technical support.



---------------------------------------

White House Requiring Mandatory Staff Coronavirus Testing After Trump Downplayed Increased Diagnostics
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/08/03/white-house-requires-random-coronavirus-tests-390934

As President Donald Trump continues to downplay the need for increased Covid-19 testing across the country, White House officials were told on Monday they will now be subjected to random testing for the virus.

According to an email sent to executive branch employees, which POLITICO obtained, the new policy will require “random mandatory Covid-19 testing” for officials working inside the White House complex, and the message added, “Failure to report to testing will be considered a refusal to test.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/GabbyOrr_/status/1290278766095237123?s=20

Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have stated numerous times that conducting a higher number of tests will lead to a higher number of positive tests.

At a June campaign rally in Tulsa, Okla., the president said he had asked his aides to “slow the testing down.”

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8162 on: August 04, 2020, 04:59:04 PM »
Classical climate denier drivel rebroadcasting.
Funny to see the deniers (incl. lukewarmers) being the most agitated, to a point they need to ridicu-lousily project their fear of fear, accusing the realists of ALARMISM! HYSTERIA! ...

I can say these hysterical reactions by many are totally unfounded
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8163 on: August 04, 2020, 05:39:41 PM »
155,000 Dead and Counting: Donald Trump Flounders in Interview Over US Covid-19 Death Toll
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/04/donald-trump-on-the-ropes-in-interview-over-us-covid-19-death-toll

Donald Trump visibly floundered in an interview when pressed on a range of issues, including the number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the US

In the interview, broadcast on HBO on Monday and conducted by Axios’s national political correspondent, Jonathan Swan, Trump again asserted that his administration was doing an “incredible job” responding to the coronavirus.

Claiming that the pandemic was unique, Trump said: “This has never happened before. Nineteen seventeen, but it was totally different, it was a flu in that case. If you watch the fake news on television, they don’t even talk about it, but there are 188 other countries right now that are suffering. Some, proportionately, far greater than we are.”

And when asked about the death toll from coronavirus so far in the US, of almost 155,000 killed, Trump appeared irritated and said: They are dying, that’s true. It is what it is"

Swan pressed the president on which countries were doing worse. Trump brandished several pieces of paper with graphs and charts on them that he referred to as he attempted to suggest the US figures compared well internationally.

“Right here, United States is lowest in numerous categories. We’re lower than the world. Lower than Europe.”

“In what?” asks Swan. As it becomes apparent that Trump is talking about the number of deaths as a proportion of cases, Swan says said: “Oh, you’re doing death as a proportion of cases. I’m talking about death as a proportion of population. That’s where the US is really bad. Much worse than Germany, South Korea.”

Trump then says: “You can’t do that.”


Trump also appears, without evidence, to assert that children are receiving positive Covid-19 test results for having a runny nose – which is not generally listed among the symptoms of coronavirus, which are a high temperature and a new continuous cough.

... “You know, there are those that say you can test too much. You do know that.”

Asked who says that, Trump replies: “Oh, just read the manuals. Read the books.”


The president then attempts to shift blame for the outbreaks of coronavirus on to state governors, saying: “We have done a great job. We’ve got the governors everything they needed. They didn’t do their job – many of them didn’t, some of them did.”

Conversation With a Pre-Dementia Candidate
https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html

--------------------------------

We're Thinking About Covid-19 the Wrong Way. It's Not a 'Wave' – It's a Wildfire
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/04/coronavirus-pandemic-wave-wildfire

Like a fire, the virus relentlessly seeks out its fuel, humans, and will keep spreading as long as it has access to that
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 06:01:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8164 on: August 04, 2020, 06:09:59 PM »
Does anyone have any information (Sputniknews) about a new much more aggressive mutation, from covid-19 in Vietnam? Is this information to be considered fake news? I've found nothing to confirm that.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8165 on: August 04, 2020, 06:26:14 PM »
There are a lot of articles about that when you google it (time frame last 24h). I can't say anything about the credibility of those sources since they are all Asian and i'm not familiar with Asian media sources.

Like this one >> https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Vietnam-fights-new-COVID-19-strain-with-higher-infection-rate

Quote
HANOI -- Vietnam is mobilizing to contain the coronavirus in Danang, as the strain detected in the country's tourism hub appears more transmissible than previous versions, health authorities say.

"Results of gene sequencing showed that this is a new strain that entered Vietnam," Nguyen Thanh Long, acting health minister, said Sunday. "Mutation has increased susceptibility, leading to high rates of infection."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8166 on: August 04, 2020, 06:38:06 PM »
The Morality of Receiving a Covid-19 Vaccine
https://ronconte.com/2020/08/04/the-morality-of-receiving-a-covid-19-vaccine/
Quote
I understand the desire to end abortion. But it will not happen by means of fighting against vaccines. The path to the end of abortion is chastity. Abortion and contraception exist to serve the sexual sins of a sinful society. Only when society abandons those sins will we be able to end abortion and abortifacient contraception.

Accept the vaccine.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8167 on: August 04, 2020, 06:53:42 PM »
Vietnam says origin of Danang outbreak hard to track as virus cases rise
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vietnam-idUSKBN24Y0CL
https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-coronavirus-spike-new-strain-3-times-more-infectious-2020-8


... Nguyen Thanh Long, the country's health minister, said on Sunday that those infected with the new strain have infected five to six people on average, Reuters reported.

Those infected with the original strain of COVID-19, which arrived in Vietnam in late January, passed it to an average of 1.8 to 2.2 people, he said.

While the strain is new to Vietnam, it has been seen before in Bangladesh, Britain, and Ireland, according to Vietnamese scientists.

There are multiple strains of the novel coronavirus; the original D614 strain was found in Wuhan, China, in December and appeared in Vietnam in January.

Analysis of the virus’s genome sequence found a mutation called ‘D614G’ made the virus more infectious than the original strain, but did not cause more severe disease



https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/new-strain-covid-more-infectious-1.892276

See also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg279176.html#msg279176
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8168 on: August 04, 2020, 08:09:04 PM »
Sweden has an advantage of low average population density, 32 / km2. Many populous countries have an average of 5-10 times more (of course this really depends on the density of the regions with most people, adding a desert or a frozen tundra only skews the statistics). I think this, along with high compliance of the population, and probably more outdoors than indoors and more open windows than closed windows during summer, is what helped Sweden avoid the fates of countries that were hit much worse.

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8169 on: August 04, 2020, 10:12:12 PM »
More than half of Swedish households are single-person, the highest proportion in the EU

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190821-why-so-many-young-swedes-live-alone
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8170 on: August 04, 2020, 10:15:10 PM »
New UK dashboard released today

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Lots more data than the previous dashboard, but its English figures counted in the English way, plus Scottish figures counted the Scottish way, ... not UK figures counted the UK way. The UK government has given up on trying to get figures counted in a uniform manner for the UK (its under "urgent review" and has been for many weeks ...), this is Public Health England collating data from across the UK.

England includes some people that definitely didn't die with coronavirus but recovered and died of something else, and the other UK countries exclude some that definitely did but took a long time to die and its not possible to reconcile the two approaches in a timely manner. Its one or the other or give up on daily figures and wait 3 weeks for the death certificates to be processed. It was a small difference at the peak of the epidemic and trivial in the cumulative number but with the peak several months ago its getting significant in the daily number.

Public Health England should probably adopt the same method as the other countries and accept its daily rate is might be 10% too low, because its current method is probably around 30% too high on the daily rate now and it'll only get worse if the death rates continue to drop. They got beaten up by the politicos for undercounting at the beginning of the epidemic and told they had to make sure that everyone was counted and they are digging their heels in about going back to a method that is known to undercount.

James blogged on it http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/07/mountains-and-molehills.html if you want more detail. James current estimate for R is 1.11 (0.99 - 1.23) or "the null hypothesis is clinging on by its fingertips"
The official number published number is 0.8-0.9 according to SAGE. SAGE say they believe their own estimate is too low. Perhaps they ought to be renamed ONION.

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8171 on: August 04, 2020, 10:25:21 PM »
Sweden has an advantage of low average population density, 32 / km2. Many populous countries have an average of 5-10 times more (of course this really depends on the density of the regions with most people, adding a desert or a frozen tundra only skews the statistics). I think this, along with high compliance of the population, and probably more outdoors than indoors and more open windows than closed windows during summer, is what helped Sweden avoid the fates of countries that were hit much worse.

Sweden has not done that well, many died in Nursing homes like the UK they gave them morphine and refused them Oxygen, a Swedish doctor exposed this and it went mainstream.

Sweden population is 10 Million with 5,747 official deaths. If we scale up Sweden to the UK population 10 million x 6.7= 38,504 deaths.

Dr. Tallinger reports from Sweden



glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8173 on: August 05, 2020, 03:02:58 AM »
UK IFR 1.65%, IFR 1.99%, excess deaths IFR 2.28% Fatality rate. UK and Australia update.


« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 03:16:50 AM by glennbuck »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8174 on: August 05, 2020, 05:20:10 AM »
As lockdown was gradually lifted in Israel, daily cases were growing rather slowly until schools reopened. Then one day, just a couple of weeks later, it was discovered that 140 students in one high/junior high school have been infected. Of course they also infected their parents and families (and teachers of course). That time marked the beginning of fast growth in daily cases. There are more examples like this in cases where teenagers congregated.
Finally found a link for the above. Long NYTimes article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-schools-reopen.html

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

Quote
As countries consider back-to-school strategies for the fall, a coronavirus outbreak at a Jerusalem high school offers a cautionary tale.

JERUSALEM — As the United States and other countries anxiously consider how to reopen schools, Israel, one of the first countries to do so, illustrates the dangers of moving too precipitously.

Confident it had beaten the coronavirus and desperate to reboot a devastated economy, the Israeli government invited the entire student body back in late May.

Within days, infections were reported at a Jerusalem high school, which quickly mushroomed into the largest outbreak in a single school in Israel, possibly the world.

The virus rippled out to the students’ homes and then to other schools and neighborhoods, ultimately infecting hundreds of students, teachers and relatives.

Other outbreaks forced hundreds of schools to close. Across the country, tens of thousands of students and teachers were quarantined.

Israel’s advice for other countries?

“They definitely should not do what we have done,” said Eli Waxman, a professor at the Weizmann Institute of Science and chairman of the team advising Israel’s National Security Council on the pandemic. “It was a major failure.”

The lesson, experts say, is that even communities that have gotten the spread of the virus under control need to take strict precautions when reopening schools. Smaller classes, mask wearing, keeping desks six feet apart and providing adequate ventilation, they say, are likely to be crucial until a vaccine is available.

“If there is a low number of cases, there is an illusion that the disease is over,” said Dr. Hagai Levine, a professor of epidemiology at Hebrew University-Hadassah School of Public Health. “But it’s a complete illusion.”

“The mistake in Israel,” he said, “is that you can open the education system, but you have to do it gradually, with certain limits, and you have to do it in a very careful way.”

......

Outside school walls, the coronavirus returned with a vengeance. Covid wards that had closed with festive ceremonies in late April began filling again, with confirmed infections spiraling to about 800 a day by late June and more than 2,000 a day by late July.

Some blamed the hasty school reopening as a major factor in the second wave. Siegal Sadetzki, who resigned in frustration last month as Israel’s director of public health services, wrote that insufficient safety precautions in schools, as well as large gatherings like weddings, fueled a “significant portion” of second-wave infections.

But others said singling out schools was unfair when the real problem was that everything reopened too quickly.

“The single super-spreader event in the Gymnasia just happened to be in a school,” said Dr. Ran Balicer, an Israeli health care official and adviser to the prime minister on the pandemic. “It could have happened in any other setting.”

Now Israel is confronting the same questions as other countries, trying to learn from its mistakes in planning for the school year that begins Sept. 1.

Public health experts worldwide have coalesced around a set of guidelines for reopening schools.

A major recommendation is to create groups of 10 to 15 students who stay together in classrooms, at recess and lunchtime, with teachers assigned to only one group. Each group has minimal contact with other groups, limiting any spread of infection. And if a case of Covid-19 emerges, one group can be quarantined at home while others can continue at school.

Other key recommendations include staggering schedules or teaching older students online, keeping desks several feet apart, sanitizing classrooms more frequently, providing ventilation and opening windows if possible, and requiring masks for staff and students old enough to wear them properly.

Israel has already moved in that direction.

The government recently appointed a coronavirus czar, Dr. Ronni Gamzu, who transferred responsibility for virus testing and investigation from the Health Ministry to the military. “This is an operation, not medicine,” he declared.

On Sunday, the government approved plans for returning only grades two and lower to school in full-size classes in the fall. Younger children are less likely to become seriously ill, and some studies have suggested that they are less likely than adults and teenagers to transmit the virus to others.

The plans also call for splitting older students into capsules of 18 and for mostly online instruction for grades five and above. Principals will have flexibility to adjust their school’s policies based on local conditions.

Even those measures may not be enough.

Menashe Levy, president of the Israeli High School Principals Association, arranged desks six feet apart in a standard classroom. It could accommodate 14 students, not 18.

But Israel is plunging ahead. Only one option has been ruled out: closing the schools.

“This is a long-term pandemic,” said Dr. Nadav Davidovitch, a pandemic policy adviser to the government. “We cannot close schools for a year.”

Follow the link for more details.

Jeju-islander

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8175 on: August 05, 2020, 07:59:34 AM »
In South Korea the first severe outbreak of Covid-19 was the original D614 strain from Wuhan, China. This appeared in Korea in February at a secretive cult-like church based in Daegu.

The second outbreak in May was the  ‘D614G’  strain, believed to be imported from Europe. This outbreak began at clubs in the multicultural nightclub district of Itaewon in Seoul. There is no evidence that this strain has been more transmissible or causes more severe disease in the Korean data.

A site that monitors these changing strains is NextStrain
Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Global subsampling

Trevor Bradford, scientist who posts analysis of the NextStrain data has this to say about the two strains.
https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825352660877313

Quote
I've been watching D614G closely as mutations in spike protein deserve added attention due to spike's role in binding to the human ACE2 receptor...I strongly caution against interpretation of selective effects in the global frequency of D614G...Its global frequency is heavily confounded with epidemiological circumstance... I don't agree with takes that there is "no evidence" that G is more transmissible. There is some evidence, but it's far from conclusive.

There's also a scientific article discussing the two strains here -
What D614G Means for the COVID-19 Pandemic Remains Unclear
 
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 05:06:29 PM by Jeju-islander »

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8176 on: August 05, 2020, 11:51:42 AM »
A little update on Australia.

Melbourne is tracking at about 500 per day for the last five day, ranging from 350 to 725.
10 people per day are dying. Up until about one week ago all deaths were over 60. This week 2 deaths are under (40s and 30s). The 40s man was a health cop, no info has been given for the 30s person as per family request.
The hospitals are hanging in there with support from the army and other states but it is very borderline. With the 725 cases happening today, a record, people are getting nervous.
The lockdown is quite strict. Always wear a mask, retail in Melb has effectively been closed barring supermarkets, food supplies and medical places. You are meant to stay home while waiting test results but of the random door knocking to check, 800 out of 3000 were absent.... too many were at work in spite of the money being given to people to stay at home (three days waiting means the Govt gives you one weeks worth of money, no strings attached)
Because of non compliance, penalties are now in place from $2000 to $20,000.
As an aside, someone from my wife's workplace was one of those 800. Her workplace was shut for the day, deep cleaned and now testing of everyone is happening. This happens every time someone works while sick in every workplace.

Sydney is sticking with tens per day for about one month now..... up until now every case has been traceable but today that changed to 2 cases being untraceable. Because of that the city is asking anyone with any symptoms at all to get tested in an attempt to close the loop on the untrackable cases.
When Melbourne was at that stage only parts of the city we put in lockdown, it didn't work so they are trying the testing approach in Sydney.

ICU in Melbourne is full.
State borders are closed.
I have no idea how this will progress, but it isn't looking good given untrackable community transmission is rampant.... of the 725 today, 500 are unknowns at this point. This is a ratio that is about normal now.
Non urgent surgery is cancelled.
Nurses and doctors are catching it, although they suspect it is from home and not the hospital but that is not 100% clear.
Aged Care is a huge problem, it just keeps spreading between facilities and it isn't clear how it is happening. Enquiries are frantically being done.
More younger people are ending up in hospital and in ICU, I am a little surprised there hasn't been more under 50 year old deaths but that is unlikely to remain that way.... we will know in the next couple of weeks. With the hospitals still functioning, maybe young person death rates will remain low.

Melbourne is just coping with 500 per day as a 5 day average, but it is still creeping up in spite of lock down.

This situation of community transmission is what is, in my uneducated opinion, going to be the real problem for the world. If Melbourne cant handle this or contain it, then the world wont be able to stop this virus was rapid growth either.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8177 on: August 06, 2020, 12:00:14 AM »
I have this feeling that, either way we follow, damage to society and economy is already beyond reparable or it’s gonna worsen.
This plague is like the munition some armies use that mostly hurt rather than kill. The logistics involved in recovering the hurt soldiers delay the army advance  even more than if the soldiers were killed.
Note that this thing with a 1% IFR or less could potentially sink globalized capitalist system for good...

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8178 on: August 06, 2020, 03:11:16 AM »
I have this feeling that, either way we follow, damage to society and economy is already beyond reparable or it’s gonna worsen.
This plague is like the munition some armies use that mostly hurt rather than kill. The logistics involved in recovering the hurt soldiers delay the army advance  even more than if the soldiers were killed.
Note that this thing with a 1% IFR or less could potentially sink globalized capitalist system for good...

This is exactly what I believe.
It isn't terrible as a virus but it is bad enough to not be able to ignore it either.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8179 on: August 06, 2020, 09:18:58 AM »
But the assumption that they're all the same is racist in a way, no?

The Dutch government announced a travel warning to Croatia two weeks ago, with apparantly no good reason, except perhaps that number of cases were rising exponentially in neighbouring Bosnia and Serbia. You know, all those Balkan Yugo countries are all the same.

Norway, Finland, Sweden, they're all the same. Just like Asian and African countries. All the same.  ;D

In the interview with Anders Tegnell I posted last week, he explains that you can't compare countries one-on-one, and that Norway and Denmark are different from Sweden in many ways.
As a Finn I am not at all offended if someone draws a comparison between the Nordic countries. We are not the same but we share many things in common.

Regarding Covid, it makes perfect sense to compare Sweden to her closest neighbours. Tegnell doesn’t want to do that because it exposes his herd immunity strategy to be incorrect. Sweden was fully able to suppress the epidemic, but they chose to follow a different route.

Economic damage is pretty similar in all the Nordic countries. This proves it’s the virus, not the counter measures, that damages the economy.
 

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8180 on: August 06, 2020, 09:31:59 AM »
Economic damage is pretty similar in all the Nordic countries. This proves it’s the virus, not the counter measures, that damages the economy.

Of course, this is true! It was also shown by the study the IFO conducted earlier linked in this thread.

It's a no-brainer if you ask me. It's the uncertainty that kills the economy! Countermeasures introduce at least some certainty in an uncertain environment.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg265164/topicseen.html#msg265164

Andreas T

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8181 on: August 06, 2020, 11:07:05 AM »
Rodius, as you say, with a functioning health system under 50 deaths are likely to remain low. This is how age distribution of cases and deaths so far looks for Bavaria, the most severely affected part of Germany. (males are the brown bars)
Cases are highest among working age population. testing is quite high, 15% positive tests at peak, but now well below 5%, but possibly missing asymptomatic cases.
There are of course reasons for under 50s to avoid this despite the low chance of death: slow recovery and possibly long term effects.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8182 on: August 06, 2020, 04:35:41 PM »
Note that this thing with a 1% IFR or less could potentially sink globalized capitalist system for good...

Wow, that is rich indeed! So a 1% IFR illness will destroy the system. Mankind has coped with much much worse during the past centuries. The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million AFTER a devastating 4 year global war - and yet, other than Russia, capitalism survived.
Black Death killed 20-50% of Europe and yet the system (feudalism) stayed.

COVID is a very minor hiccup in the big scheme of things. A large-scale solar flare, destroying electronics would be a gamechanger. This is not.

 

Jeju-islander

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8183 on: August 06, 2020, 04:58:33 PM »
I just finished watching the TV drama Sløborn. It's a Danish / German production about the effects of a novel respiratory virus pandemic on a small island community in the North Sea. It was filmed in 2019 just before the Covid-19 pandemic became widespread. The most interesting cultural standpoint in the drama  is that a significant resistance movement emerges to oppose the government handling of the crisis.
The author of the drama states in an interview - Infectious TV
Quote
“What differentiates us from virus movies is that this is about personal responsibility in these times where you don’t know who to trust anymore,” Alvart says, pointing to real examples including the 2014 sinking of Korean ship Sewol, where many passengers died because they followed orders to stay in their cabins.
(Note - the aftermath of the Sewol sinking is one important factor that led to a peaceful, popular, uprising that overthrew a corrupt regime. Another factor was the inept handling of the 2015 MERS crisis. The current government has learnt the lesson of both those crises.)

For government strategies to work the consent of the population is required. Here in Korea there is no Covid-19 'resistance' movement. In fact most people are very positive about the way the government has handled the crisis so far. In contrast I watched the German TV news channel Deutsche Welle this weekend  live streaming  a  'resistance'  march in Berlin. Wow.

To gain consent any government needs to be transparent about what it is doing and why. As an example I have been looking at England. After an abysmal start in combating the virus the government there is now trying hard to be more open. For example a Test and Trace policy begun in late May is putting out extensive data on a weekly basis - NHS Test and Trace statistics (England): weekly reports

This issue of public consent and willing engagement in a collective response against the virus is going to be put to an extreme test in the next few months. What percentage of the population will be willing to be vaccinated, knowing that any vaccine created in a hurry cannot have been properly tested.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8184 on: August 06, 2020, 05:30:58 PM »
I agree, El Cid. This might be a bumpy road for the economy, but nothing that will destroy capitalism on it's own.

It has the potential to harm democratic structures though. We should be aware of that IMHO.

OTOH, the wrong president at the wrong time can also destroy democracies. So... this is where we stand.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8185 on: August 06, 2020, 11:21:27 PM »
Maybe a lot will depend on how China will come out of the next winter. A big part of the country has a strong winter, they live close to eachother, probably not many have immunity..... How will they react if the number of infections picks up ? That can have a big economic impact. And if other countries start to run out of supplies, it can have a big impact on all the global supplychains.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8186 on: August 07, 2020, 01:18:23 AM »
Note that this thing with a 1% IFR or less could potentially sink globalized capitalist system for good...

Wow, that is rich indeed! So a 1% IFR illness will destroy the system. Mankind has coped with much much worse during the past centuries. The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million AFTER a devastating 4 year global war - and yet, other than Russia, capitalism survived.
Black Death killed 20-50% of Europe and yet the system (feudalism) stayed.

COVID is a very minor hiccup in the big scheme of things. A large-scale solar flare, destroying electronics would be a gamechanger. This is not.
Maybe. But modern global economy, based on growth and suffering when this goes down a 1%, might be very fragile to a global phenomenon that cuts real economy in double digits potentially for two years... if the fix to this is proven difficult.

I don’t see a bumpy road when about or above 50% of self employed declare losses and 25% may close business only this year, and unemployment in general may go to double digits nearly everywhere.

I see revolts around the globe if this is not fixed by 2021. I hope to be wrong.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8187 on: August 07, 2020, 01:20:46 AM »
I agree, El Cid. This might be a bumpy road for the economy, but nothing that will destroy capitalism on it's own.
People who live in less comfortable position may think otherwise

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8188 on: August 07, 2020, 01:54:32 AM »
Note that this thing with a 1% IFR or less could potentially sink globalized capitalist system for good...

Wow, that is rich indeed! So a 1% IFR illness will destroy the system. Mankind has coped with much much worse during the past centuries. The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million AFTER a devastating 4 year global war - and yet, other than Russia, capitalism survived.
Black Death killed 20-50% of Europe and yet the system (feudalism) stayed.

COVID is a very minor hiccup in the big scheme of things. A large-scale solar flare, destroying electronics would be a gamechanger. This is not.

Just a side note on the Black Death not ending feudalism.
It isn't really clear cut.... interesting read on the effects a disease can have on society.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/middle_ages/black_impact_01.shtml

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8189 on: August 07, 2020, 03:44:30 AM »
Thanks, Rodius. I was going to pipe in, but it looks like you found a nice concise article that covers the issue well enough.

The take away from it, contrary to what was claimed above:

Quote
It has been argued that the Black Death brought about the end of feudalism.

Yes, there were still kings and official royalty for a long time. But much that had characterized feudalism started to change at this time and accelerated in the next century.

I found this literary/historical note quite nicely put, too:

Quote
In Chaucer's Canterbury Tales of 1387 the well-known Prologue describes the dress of each pilgrim. Arguably, it demonstrates that apart from the knight, the poor parson and the ploughman, who personify each of the three traditional divisions of medieval society, every pilgrim is dressed more grandly that the Sumptuary Law would allow. The Canterbury Tales came six years after the Great Revolt of 1381 in which rebellion flared throughout much of England, the Kent and Essex men invaded London, chopped off Archbishop Sudbury's head and terrified the fourteen-year-old Richard II into agreeing concessions on the Poll Tax and other matters. The Poll Tax was an unsuccessful attempt by the government to combat the effects of plague by changing the basis of taxation from a charge on communities (many much less populous following successive plagues), with a tax on individuals who had survived.

Chaucer, the court poet, was very aware of the anxieties of the elite in the new post-plague society. His Canterbury pilgrims, as the courtiers encountered them, were arranged 'by rank and degree' and sent back down the road to Canterbury in perfect order, led by the knight: precisely the opposite to the unruly mob which had marched up from Canterbury in 1381.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8190 on: August 07, 2020, 07:55:02 AM »
Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency and mortality from respiratory diseases in a cohort of older adults: potential for limiting the death toll during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic

Link >> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137299v1

See also:

Quote
Vitamin D deficiency causes a 10 times higher death rate in Covid-19 patients according to recent studies. What we can do to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control and avoid another lockdown.

Link >> https://borsche.de/res/Vitamin_D_Essentials_EN.pdf

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8191 on: August 07, 2020, 08:00:23 AM »
I agree, El Cid. This might be a bumpy road for the economy, but nothing that will destroy capitalism on it's own.
People who live in less comfortable position may think otherwise

So how will it go down in your opinion? Governments all over the world stop giving trillions to big companies and instead make them public? End monopolies just like that? Abandon the free-market capitalism and replace it with what? Planned economies? Private ownership of the means of production ended?

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8192 on: August 07, 2020, 10:24:04 AM »
I think September will be quite positive in the NH midlatitudes as aircons will be off, and people will still spend a lot of time outdoors. This could be the calm before the (late fall-early winter) storm...

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8193 on: August 07, 2020, 12:50:12 PM »
Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency and mortality from respiratory diseases in a cohort of older adults: potential for limiting the death toll during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic

Link >> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137299v1

See also:

Quote
Vitamin D deficiency causes a 10 times higher death rate in Covid-19 patients according to recent studies. What we can do to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control and avoid another lockdown.

Link >> https://borsche.de/res/Vitamin_D_Essentials_EN.pdf

 8) 8) 8) 8)

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8194 on: August 07, 2020, 02:16:09 PM »
I think September will be quite positive in the NH midlatitudes as aircons will be off, and people will still spend a lot of time outdoors. This could be the calm before the (late fall-early winter) storm...

I tend to agree.  I think it will also have a wave effect, as the northernmost area start early, working its southward.  The southernmost area may hold out until the end of the year.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8195 on: August 07, 2020, 02:39:27 PM »
Fact: There is significant correlation between low serum levels of Vitamin D and negative Covid outcomes.

Fact: There is a significant correlation between low serum levels of Vitamin D and many disease processes like diabetes, heart disease and cancer.

Fact: For most diseases correlated with low Vitamin D, Vitamin D supplementation is not enough to fix the disease process.

Fact: There is significant correlation between low serum levels of Vitamin D and seasonality.

Speculation: There is significant correlation between Covid 19 negative outcomes and seasonality.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8196 on: August 07, 2020, 02:47:01 PM »
Coronavirus: Asymptomatic cases 'carry same amount of virus'

People with symptomless Covid-19 can carry as much of the virus as those with symptoms, a South Korean study has suggested.

South Korea was able to identify and isolate asymptomatic cases through mass testing as early as the start of March.

There is mounting evidence these cases represent a considerable proportion of coronavirus infections.

But the researchers weren't able to say how much these people actually passed the virus on.

People with a positive coronavirus test were monitored in a community treatment centre, allowing scientists to look at how much of the virus was detectable in their nose and throat swabs.

They were given regular tests, and only released once they were negative.

Results of 1,886 tests suggest people with no symptoms at the time of the test, including those who never go on to develop symptoms, have the same amount of viral material in their nose and throat as people with symptoms.


The study also showed the virus could be detected in asymptomatic people for significant periods of time - although they appeared to clear it from their systems slightly faster than people with symptoms.

The median time (the number where half of cases were higher and half were lower) from being diagnosed to receiving a negative test was 17 days in asymptomatic patients and 19.5 days in symptomatic patients.

Because of the nature of the isolation centre, the study didn't include people with severe cases of the disease. They were also younger and healthier than average.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53665008

The amount of shedding time is why the lacklustre lets monitor people with temps only approach failed us so hard then again with the amount of asymptomatic cases it will be hard to control unless we reach herd immunity.

This was also a problem for our dutch guidelines for critical workers. They were only supposed to call in sick with fevers and such. If you work exclusivily in the Covid ward that is not a problem because everyone there (the patients) has covid anyway but the people who work with the elderly should have been in separate bubbles although working out how to do that is quite a puzzle.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8197 on: August 07, 2020, 03:34:58 PM »
Not The Onion:

Covid 19 coronavirus: US Government issues New Zealand travel warning due to its '23 active cases'

Link >> https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12354666

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8198 on: August 07, 2020, 03:43:47 PM »
Note that this thing with a 1% IFR or less could potentially sink globalized capitalist system for good...

Maybe. But modern global economy, based on growth and suffering when this goes down a 1%, might be very fragile to a global phenomenon that cuts real economy in double digits potentially for two years... if the fix to this is proven difficult.

I don’t see a bumpy road when about or above 50% of self employed declare losses and 25% may close business only this year, and unemployment in general may go to double digits nearly everywhere.

I see revolts around the globe if this is not fixed by 2021. I hope to be wrong.

This is an accurate perspective.

Of course, the method for "fixing" this situation is to manipulate the data.  Similar to how they're "fixing" the stock market, etc etc.

Our culture has 1 tool in the tool shed - a big boot to kick the can down the road.




« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 03:51:52 PM by harpy »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8199 on: August 07, 2020, 03:51:35 PM »

In the US, there's STILL an eviction moratorium - 30% of renters will be homeless and in debt when the moratorium is lifted. 

The wealthy class of property owners will not be affected, but the lower class will be forced to accept a lower standard of living, which could lead to civil unrest.

Well, I did not see a revolution in the US in 2008-9 during the great housing bust when millions lost their homes.
And this time there is an extreme amount of fiscal-monetary stimulus. Debasement of the dollar (and most other fiat currencies) is ongoing but that is the price of social peace.
If there is a strong second wave there will be even more stimulus (=Central Bank finances fiscal spending). This is basically the redistribution of wealth from bond (paper asset) owners (middle and upper classes) to the lower classes.