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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 342988 times)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8200 on: August 07, 2020, 04:32:24 PM »

This was also a problem for our dutch guidelines for critical workers. They were only supposed to call in sick with fevers and such. If you work exclusivily in the Covid ward that is not a problem because everyone there (the patients) has covid anyway but the people who work with the elderly should have been in separate bubbles although working out how to do that is quite a puzzle.

Its quite hard in hospitals too.

Hospitals in the UK run COVID wards, cohort (waiting for test result) wards, and COVID negative wards. It wasn't very good at stopping those in the cohort wards whose test came back positive from infecting those in the cohort wards whose test came back negative while waiting for the test result.

Consequently patients got into the COVID negative wards after being infected in the cohort ward and went on to infect other patients and staff there too.

Search for the BBC's "Inside Health" podcast wherever you get your podcasts. In the last one there was a piece on fast turnround swab tests and why that's important for cutting the risk of transmission in hospitals.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8201 on: August 07, 2020, 07:13:18 PM »
The other aspect of this virus is that we are still not back to BAU.  Masks are being worn nearly globally, many, if not the vast majority of large gatherings cancelled.

As soon as restrictions are relaxed, the bodies will begin to pile up at a faster rate.

Despite the artificial figures being belched from the US government, this virus has a staggeringly high CFR for a virus with an R0 value as high as smallpox.

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8202 on: August 07, 2020, 11:03:21 PM »
Quote
Not The Onion:

Covid 19 coronavirus: US Government issues New Zealand travel warning due to its '23 active cases'

14 days managed  isolation for anyone entering NZ .
All 19 cases  have come in from offshore.

7 August 2020

The first American flight bringing personnel taking part in the international Antarctic season touched down in Christchurch this morning.

Quote
Antarctica is the only continent that is Covid-19 free.

Yesterday Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods confirmed there would be a reduced Antarctic programme due to Covid-19.

"All international arrivals will pay for their own 14-day managed isolation and be tested twice for Covid-19 before leaving for the ice," Woods said.

Travellers to Antarctica can only enter New Zealand after being granted an exemption from the current border restrictions, the criteria of which is based on the essential nature of their work, and agreements between governments on cooperation in Antarctica.

Aircraft lands in chch, those on board will quarantine for 2 weeks

Those on board the plane will pay for their own 14 day managed isolation in New Zealand and best tested twice for Covid-19 before leaving for Antarctica.
"Travellers to Antarctica will be isolating in managed facilities, and planning has ensured space has been allocated to prevent any pressure on the system," Woods said.

While in a typical season (running from August till March), more than 3000 members of international Antarctic science programmes would normally pass through or be based in Christchurch, this season that number is expected to be about 800. The majority are part of the United States' Antarctic Programme, with arrivals also supporting the New Zealand, Italy and Korea programmes.

The first flight to the continent is scheduled for 24 August.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/423003/us-flight-touches-down-in-christchurch-ahead-of-international-antarctic-season
 

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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8203 on: August 07, 2020, 11:05:08 PM »
I agree, El Cid. This might be a bumpy road for the economy, but nothing that will destroy capitalism on it's own.
People who live in less comfortable position may think otherwise

So how will it go down in your opinion? Governments all over the world stop giving trillions to big companies and instead make them public? End monopolies just like that? Abandon the free-market capitalism and replace it with what? Planned economies? Private ownership of the means of production ended?

I see a tipping point, perhaps in Fall?, where virus transmission does not abate in the NH, real economy stays depressed, then maybe a big company (aerospace? Insurance?) fails for total lack of perspectives, the government fails to continue maintaining artificially these companies, and the investors loans from electronically printed money start to default in sync with stocks finally crashing, this time nothing stops it. Ponzi scheme could not resist another month of fake economic activity. Rat race ensues, financial system crumbles down only to meet a Main Street that is looking at bankruptcies everywhere...

Not saying something like it is gonna happen but I don’t see the possibility remote anymore...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8204 on: August 08, 2020, 02:55:43 AM »
University of Washington model predicts 300,000 U.S. deaths
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-live-updates.html

The coronavirus could kill nearly 300,000 Americans by December, according to new data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. But consistent mask-wearing by 95% of people in the U.S. could save around 70,000 lives, the data predicts.

Models have previously predicted that the U.S. could see 200,000 coronavirus deaths by October.

The coronavirus has killed more than 160,100 people in the U.S., the largest death toll of any country globally, according to Johns Hopkins University.

“We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.”

------------------------------

India now has over 2 million cases and more than 41,000 people have died
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/india-hits-2-million-coronavirus-cases-as-deaths-pass-41000.html

India has reported more than 2 million cases of Covid-19 to-date and over 41,000 people have succumbed to the illness, according to the health ministry, the Associated Press reported.
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8205 on: August 08, 2020, 12:10:49 PM »
As the real infections are typically one order of magnitude above official cases, seems the IFR in India may be as low as 0.2%

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8206 on: August 08, 2020, 01:02:18 PM »
As the real infections are typically one order of magnitude above official cases, seems the IFR in India may be as low as 0.2%

Make that 0.1% or even lower, as the BBC article that kassy posted last week has stated.

So, what is it about India - after weeks and then months of prophecies of pending doom - that causes the IFR to be so low, given the lack of medical facilities and dense demographics? A lack of obesity? Plenty of Vitamin D? A population that doesn't panic because it accepts death as a part of life?
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8207 on: August 08, 2020, 01:57:00 PM »

So, what is it about India - after weeks and then months of prophecies of pending doom - that causes the IFR to be so low, given the lack of medical facilities and dense demographics? A lack of obesity? Plenty of Vitamin D? A population that doesn't panic because it accepts death as a part of life?

India has problems with its statistics, it seems.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-outbreak/covid-19-deaths-in-india-how-india-could-fill-in-the-blanks-on-excess-mortality

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8208 on: August 08, 2020, 02:16:11 PM »
Quote
A population that doesn't panic because it accepts death as a part of life?

Panic is to deny risk, forgo safety measures andthe end result is hundreds of thousands of dead.

Death is not part of life. Death is the end of life. Nobody wants it. We spend most of our energy trying to avoid it, as does every species of animal and plant. But everyone must accept it. There is no way around it. Not accepting death isn't even an option.

Virus is a hoax? Panic. Masks do not work? Panic. Herd immunity? The mother of all panicky mistakes. Hydroxychloroquine? The placebo used to lower panic in minds suceptible to propaganda.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8209 on: August 08, 2020, 02:27:33 PM »
As the real infections are typically one order of magnitude above official cases, seems the IFR in India may be as low as 0.2%

Make that 0.1% or even lower, as the BBC article that kassy posted last week has stated.

So, what is it about India - after weeks and then months of prophecies of pending doom - that causes the IFR to be so low, given the lack of medical facilities and dense demographics? A lack of obesity? Plenty of Vitamin D? A population that doesn't panic because it accepts death as a part of life?

A young population. IFR varies very strongly with age, so its not comparable across countries unless they are very similar in age structure or unless its standardised for age. In the UK, one analysis finds IFR goes up by a factor of 10 roughly every 15 years older you get. Average risk in the UK is at about 70 years old. Average risk in India might be about at about 50 years old and 20 times smaller. Age is a big enough effect for IFR to be 1.4% for the UK population and 0.05-0.1% in India without anything else influencing it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India#Structure_of_the_population
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8210 on: August 08, 2020, 02:36:13 PM »
Is it possible that being born into, and growing up in a less sterile environment can result in a more robust immune system leading to less severe COVID disease? I am a big believer in the hygiene hypothesis and believe that the obsession with cleanliness in modern societies is bad for immune and overall health.

We let our kid play in the dirt, put stuff in his mouth, etc. He has had literally one course of antibiotics in his 17 years compared to many of his peers that have had dozens.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8211 on: August 08, 2020, 04:20:34 PM »
Is it possible that being born into, and growing up in a less sterile environment can result in a more robust immune system leading to less severe COVID disease? I am a big believer in the hygiene hypothesis and believe that the obsession with cleanliness in modern societies is bad for immune and overall health.

We let our kid play in the dirt, put stuff in his mouth, etc. He has had literally one course of antibiotics in his 17 years compared to many of his peers that have had dozens.
Yeah that’s true. Especially when related to immune system, even autoimmune diseases as Type 1 Diabetes are triggered if hygiene is obsessive. Observed in the Finland/Russia border. Same etnia with same genetics would develop T1D much more frequently in Finland kids of that region that had a more aseptic raising.

But where do you put the bar? And where do we set the bar in “accept life and death and covid” vs “avoid getting a sickness that can literally destroy you from kidneys, veins, brain to lungs”.

NEVEN, I DONT WANT TO GET IT!!! (Hysterically while I beat the wall and my neighbor shushes me)

Jeju-islander

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8212 on: August 08, 2020, 06:26:10 PM »
Lots of interesting analysis for those who do like to compare the outcome of Covid19 on different countries.
The Sustainable Development Goals and Covid-19

Quote
Learning the lessons: Among OECD countries, South Korea was best able to address the health impacts of Covid-19 while mitigating impacts on the economy
The report analyses how governments have responded to the immediate health crisis and describes emerging lessons for public health authorities, governments at large, and the public. The crisis has shown profound weaknesses in public health systems, including in many of the richest countries that were deemed to be well prepared for such a pandemic. Meanwhile, some countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, have (so far) been successful in containing Covid-19 and minimizing the damage to their economies. The report presents a novel approach and pilot Index for the effectiveness of countries early response to Covid-19 in 33 OECD countries which integrates health and economic considerations.
Overall, South Korea tops this new Index followed by Baltic countries and countries from the Asia Pacific region. By contrast, Western European countries and the United States were less successful in mitigating health and economic impacts from Covid-19.



Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8213 on: August 08, 2020, 08:14:42 PM »
Tracking the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the United States

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

Quote
Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show numbers that look similar to recent years.
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8214 on: August 08, 2020, 09:31:41 PM »
RE India IFR

As I have written upthread, Mumbai has cca 3 mln cases according to serology and 6000 dead, ie. 0,2% which is the expected outcome given that median age is 27 yrs. In Europe median age is around and above 40, translating to IFR above 1% (given the age distribution of mortality).

No surprise and definitely no miracles here. It happens exactly as expected. BTW seasonality does NOT reduce mortality but is seems to reduce/increase spread (Re)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8215 on: August 09, 2020, 12:00:08 AM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
https://covid.us.org/2020/08/07/a-second-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-this-winter/
Quote
I’ve been studying the research on Covid-19 since February, and I’ve read through hundreds of studies. I follow various physicians with YouTube channels specifically on Covid. And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July. But July had nearly 2.0 million cases. Also, the death rate will be higher, not just as a higher number due to the higher case rate, but the percentage itself will also be higher.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8216 on: August 09, 2020, 01:36:16 AM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
https://covid.us.org/2020/08/07/a-second-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-this-winter/
Quote
I’ve been studying the research on Covid-19 since February, and I’ve read through hundreds of studies. I follow various physicians with YouTube channels specifically on Covid. And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July. But July had nearly 2.0 million cases. Also, the death rate will be higher, not just as a higher number due to the higher case rate, but the percentage itself will also be higher.
If we have 9 million total cases by September, we will have probably had 90-100 million actual infections with a death toll around 300K (.3% or so overall).

With 90-100 million cases, and some component of natural immunity, the pandemic will have actually probably burnt itself out in most of the southern US by October. While a secondary spike is still likely, especially in northern states, it is unlikely that more than 40-45% of the whole US population is infected per historical  pandemics (i.e. Spanish Flu) between the cumulative waves -- hence why NYC already has herd immunity, or close to it.

Thusly, I think it is unlikely the US sees more than 400-500K additional excess deaths in the October-March period, based on approximately 40-50 million additional infections and a fatality rate of 1% during the wintertime, which may be HIGH.

This would put the total US death toll around 750K, or about 2X the adjusted rates of the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemics. While it could pass 1M, it is looking more likely IMO that we are in for an "in-between" of Spanish Flu and other pandemics, as most of the US will have been infected in the mild summer wave.

Europe is likely to see 1M+ deaths this winter. Possibly 2M+. China will see 4M+. The greater % of the US infected in the summertime wave is likely to result in the US mortality rate being approximately 50-60% of that in most other NHEM countries by this time next year, IMO.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8217 on: August 09, 2020, 07:41:08 AM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
https://covid.us.org/2020/08/07/a-second-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-this-winter/
Quote
... And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July.

I came to the same conclusion. We are likely going to have a dreadful winter in the US and Europe with an uphill struggle Sisyphus would envy

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8218 on: August 09, 2020, 07:57:56 AM »
Tracking the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the United States

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

Quote
Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show numbers that look similar to recent years.
Alaska, Hawaii, Maine are all in the bottom 5 states for number of infections, W. Virginia is 9th least.
I suspect that is affecting the stats in the short term. While I'm not sure about the rest, my neighbour state of Alaska has an out of control epidemic of community transmission, so it would not surprise me if the death rate jumps soon.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8219 on: August 09, 2020, 08:00:34 AM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
https://covid.us.org/2020/08/07/a-second-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-this-winter/
Quote
... And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July.

I came to the same conclusion. We are likely going to have a dreadful winter in the US and Europe with an uphill struggle Sisyphus would envy
Yes, we are struggling with distancing in summer when we are outside a lot. It will be tough to keep the bug from spreading when people are indoors most of the time. Perhaps the South of the U.S. will do better, given its mild winters.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8220 on: August 09, 2020, 05:26:47 PM »
Also see Reply #8216 for an answer to this question by BBR (just a heads up for those reading from newest post).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8221 on: August 09, 2020, 06:14:37 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/only-half-of-britons-would-definitely-have-covid-19-vaccination
Covid-19: only half of Britons would definitely have vaccination
Survey sparks concern over misconceptions about vaccines and scepticism about science

The article expresses horror that only 53% of people understand/believe the science of vaccination - but if the question was put to me in those terms, I'd be part of the 47%.

It's not the science I disbelieve, it's the politics. I'm not willing to give the UK government a blank cheque on the issue, bearing in mind how they've handled things so far. If a number of respected scientists/medics say "it's too soon... it hasn't been properly tested... the decision to approve the vaccine's release is political rather than scientific" I'd refuse it until further evidence, but that doesn't make me a denier, or an anti-vaxxer. Or does it?
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8222 on: August 09, 2020, 06:15:11 PM »
RE India IFR

As I have written upthread, Mumbai has cca 3 mln cases according to serology and 6000 dead, ie. 0,2% which is the expected outcome given that median age is 27 yrs.

The expected outcome for India was COVID-apocalypse ('anytime now' as salivating news articles warned for weeks and months), but this has apparently been averted by people being young. And never mind malnutrition, low hygienic standards and poor health care for most Indians.

Never mind all of that, but let's look at the numbers again. Maybe I'm wrong to do so, but I'm basing myself on the BBC article:

Quote
More than half the residents of slums in three areas in India's commercial capital, Mumbai, tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus, a new survey has found.

Only 16% of people living outside slums in the same areas were found to be exposed to the infection.

The results are from random testing of some 7,000 people in three densely-packed areas in early July.

Mumbai has reported more than 110,000 cases and 6,187 deaths as of 28 July.

The survey was carried out by the city's municipality, the government think-tank Niti Aayog and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research.

It found that 57% of the people tested in slum areas of Chembur, Matunga and Dahisar had been exposed to the novel coronavirus.

Some 1.5 million people live in these three areas located in the western, eastern and central parts of the city.

Scientists involved with the study told the BBC that the results pointed to a number of things about the prevalence of the infection in one of India's worst-hit cities.

For one, the virus has spread more widely than was earlier believed in the city's slums, where more than half of Mumbai's 12.5 million people live.

Half of Mumbai in slums = 6.25 million x 57% seroprevalence = 3.6 million people
Half of Mumbai outside of slums = 6.25 million x 16% seroprevalence = 1.0 million people

That's 4.6 million cases and 6187 deaths ->0.13%

What is not known:
- Did people die of or with COVID-19?
- What were comorbidities?
- Is seroprevalence as low as 16% outside of slums?
- How many years were lost, how does this stack up compared to other causes of death, and does this deserve as much media attention as it has received (and still does)?
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8223 on: August 09, 2020, 07:01:13 PM »
Neshoba County, Mississippi, is up to 92 deaths / total population death rate of .31%.

Navajo Nation is up to 463 deaths for a total population death rate of .27%.

Mexico City's excess death count is up to 26,300 as of 7/19 and has probably now passed NYC numerically. The total population death rate there looks to now be a bit over .3%.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8224 on: August 09, 2020, 07:16:31 PM »
- How many years were lost, how does this stack up compared to other causes of death, and does this deserve as much media attention as it has received (and still does)?


Imagine this was ignored by the media and governments and healthcare providers.

Imagine the death toll in old folks homes without awareness of the disease and the strict sanitary measures.

Imagine hospitals ignoring C19, keeping their electives schedules full. Imagine hospitals not making provisions for  waves of patients.

Imagine schools. 1 dead child for every 1000 school children. 50-100 hospitalized with high chances of permament lung damage. But there wouldn't be hospital beds available so make it 5 in 1000, to use best case scenarios.


So yes, Neven it does deserve as much media attention as is needed to achieve a change in behavior that lowers R.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8225 on: August 09, 2020, 07:23:37 PM »
U.S.

School that suspended students for posting photos of unmasked students crowded in hallway now reports nine positive cases among students and faculty.

School District defends itself saying: “Situations in which students crowd into halls only happen in between classes.”

 ::) 

9 people test positive for coronavirus at Georgia school where viral photos showed packed hallways
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/511212-9-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-georgia-school-where-viral
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8226 on: August 09, 2020, 08:45:36 PM »

Imagine schools. 1 dead child for every 1000 school children.

1 per 100,000 is more like it. IFR is estimated to be 0.0013% for 5-14 year olds in the UK.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
IFR gets to 0.1% somewhere around in the late 40s and keeps on going up. 

1 dead parent for every 5000 school children is plausible for an uncontrolled epidemic, but not 1 dead child for every 1000 in school. It'll be the staff that die rather than the students if COVID is allowed to run unchecked in schools. 1 dead teacher for every 500 teachers. 1 dead janitor for every 250 janitors. 1 dead professor for every 200 professors. 1 dead Dean for every 100 Deans.

Schools can probably cope with the death rate among students families of an epidemic where every student catches it over the course of a year. It'll roughly double, 1 from COVID for every 1 that dies from some other cause. It was a rare year where none of my undergraduates lost a parent and its not a lot harder to cope with 2 bereaved students than it is with 1. What they can't cope with is the occupational hazard it creates for staff which is out of all proportion to the other occupational hazards in education.


Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8227 on: August 09, 2020, 09:31:49 PM »


It's not the science I disbelieve, it's the politics. I'm not willing to give the UK government a blank cheque on the issue, bearing in mind how they've handled things so far. If a number of respected scientists/medics say "it's too soon... it hasn't been properly tested... the decision to approve the vaccine's release is political rather than scientific" I'd refuse it until further evidence, but that doesn't make me a denier, or an anti-vaxxer. Or does it?

Anti-vax in the UK is the consequence of actions by two medics who were respected at the time. One fabricated data in order to boost his private practice and has since been struck off for it. One was the editor who published the paper because his reviewers failed to pick holes in it prior to publication and whose reputation remains mixed. 

While the paper is long retracted and its author exposed and disgraced, its message remains influential and the story that its based on data fabricated for personal profit has had a much weaker reach than the original story.

So following what respected medics say can make you an anti-vaxxer, particularly if you aren't well enough connected to medical news to be able to judge which medics deserve their reputation.

I think the UK government has made the right call on vaccines so far (flu shots will be offered to a much wider segment of the population and I will definitely be having one this year although I am a few years short of the normal criteria), and NICE is far enough removed from political pressure that I don't expect anything manifestly unsafe to be licensed for COVID. However if any COVID vaccine is offered this year it will have had less testing than normal and it will be a balance of risks. It might be a no-brainer for an 80 year old, a hard choice for a 50 year old and a dodgy proposition for a 20 year old, and it'll be difficult to assess those risks, and the assessment will be likely to change substantially after a year of widespread use and continued development. 


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8228 on: August 09, 2020, 10:08:13 PM »
RE:Indian numbers

They said that 1,5 mil has 57% the rest 16%, so that is cca 2,5 mil infected

But then if you ask questions, I can ask too: how big is underreporting and undercounting of deaths in a city where so many people live in slums? What is the true number of dead? India is a totally dysfuncional country. It is not like China. The numbers are most likely not even close to reality

Still, even Iceland had only 0,2% mortality because they isolated the old. Now in India, there are very few old people, so the result is the same.

i still see no miracle here. And then take a look at bbr's numbers, mortality is pretty high in infected counties

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8229 on: August 09, 2020, 10:36:30 PM »
I didn't realize the skew was so large

1 per 100,000 is more like it. IFR is estimated to be 0.0013% for 5-14 year olds in the UK.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
IFR gets to 0.1% somewhere around in the late 40s and keeps on going up. 


I stand corrected.
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8230 on: August 09, 2020, 10:57:59 PM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
https://covid.us.org/2020/08/07/a-second-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-this-winter/
Quote
I’ve been studying the research on Covid-19 since February, and I’ve read through hundreds of studies. I follow various physicians with YouTube channels specifically on Covid. And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July. But July had nearly 2.0 million cases. Also, the death rate will be higher, not just as a higher number due to the higher case rate, but the percentage itself will also be higher.
If we have 9 million total cases by September, we will have probably had 90-100 million actual infections with a death toll around 300K (.3% or so overall).

With 90-100 million cases, and some component of natural immunity, the pandemic will have actually probably burnt itself out in most of the southern US by October. While a secondary spike is still likely, especially in northern states, it is unlikely that more than 40-45% of the whole US population is infected per historical  pandemics (i.e. Spanish Flu) between the cumulative waves -- hence why NYC already has herd immunity, or close to it.

Thusly, I think it is unlikely the US sees more than 400-500K additional excess deaths in the October-March period, based on approximately 40-50 million additional infections and a fatality rate of 1% during the wintertime, which may be HIGH.

This would put the total US death toll around 750K, or about 2X the adjusted rates of the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemics. While it could pass 1M, it is looking more likely IMO that we are in for an "in-between" of Spanish Flu and other pandemics, as most of the US will have been infected in the mild summer wave.

Europe is likely to see 1M+ deaths this winter. Possibly 2M+. China will see 4M+. The greater % of the US infected in the summertime wave is likely to result in the US mortality rate being approximately 50-60% of that in most other NHEM countries by this time next year, IMO.

A study they did over here showed that all the mild cases had only very few antibodies, or no antibodies at all. And most people are living in big cities these days. So i don't think it's going to stop spreading with half of the population infected before.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8231 on: August 09, 2020, 11:08:41 PM »
It's not the same study. Many people in NY will have lost their immunity before the end of next winter. And some even before next winter. https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavirus-immunity-test-antibody-study-mild-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/#

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8232 on: August 09, 2020, 11:16:41 PM »
Still, even Iceland had only 0,2% mortality because they isolated the old. Now in India, there are very few old people, so the result is the same.

Cause and effect can be difficult to tease out.  Icelanders have a pretty high consumption of fish, which is a good source of Vitamin D.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8233 on: August 09, 2020, 11:19:46 PM »
EC, I don't know how you define 'very many' or 'old' but about 10% of Indian population is over 60.


So if you mean by 'old' over 90 or something, or if you mean by 'very many' a lot more than 100 million or so, I guess you may have a point

Otherwise...perhaps you need to clarify your point a bit?  :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8234 on: August 10, 2020, 12:12:43 AM »
Imagine this was ignored by the media and governments and healthcare providers.

I didn't say ignore. I was implying an amount of attention that is in proportion to other diseases. Something like a very bad influenza year, and then some more because it's novel. It hasn't merited, and still doesn't merit, to be presented as a silent serial killer zombie virus plague that will kill everybody who is not a paranoid, hypochondriac germophobe, trying to live forever.

In 100 days, SARS-CoV-2 has received more attention than AGW in 20 years. That's not normal or rational. That's mass psychosis, and it's dangerous.
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8235 on: August 10, 2020, 12:30:38 AM »
RE:Indian numbers

They said that 1,5 mil has 57% the rest 16%, so that is cca 2,5 mil infected

They said that 57% in densely populated slums in three areas had antibodies, and 'only 16% of people living outside slums in the same areas'.

I think it wouldn't be entirely unfair to extrapolate to the entire city. In the article it says that more than half of Mumbai's 12.5 million people live in slums. That's how I came to my back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Half of Mumbai in slums = 6.25 million x 57% seroprevalence = 3.6 million people
Half of Mumbai outside of slums = 6.25 million x 16% seroprevalence = 1.0 million people

That's 4.6 million cases and 6187 deaths ->0.13%

Quote
But then if you ask questions, I can ask too: how big is underreporting and undercounting of deaths in a city where so many people live in slums? What is the true number of dead? India is a totally dysfuncional country. It is not like China. The numbers are most likely not even close to reality

Believe you me, El Cid, if the bodies had been piling up in the streets and in cemeteries, the press would be on it 24/7, and I'd be watching it on the Austrian news every evening, even though dying children in Yemen are hardly mentioned any day. Still, the Beirut explosion seems to have awoken them from their COVID-opium-dream somewhat. For the time being.

Quote
i still see no miracle here. And then take a look at bbr's numbers, mortality is pretty high in infected counties

Yes, and that's because there is lots of obesity there, and lots of old people that are artificially being kept alive with bags full of pills every day. And then, when a minor novel virus comes along, the whole house of cards come crashing down.

So, what do we do, blame that minor virus or the vulnerable structure that has been erected to create another stream to flow to concentrated wealth?

The minor virus, of course, as this provides plenty of cover to distract from the systemic aspects of the crisis. And it creates a host of other streams to flow to concentrated wealth! Win-win!
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8236 on: August 10, 2020, 12:33:58 AM »
I think mass psychosis is the correct term. There is no arguing with these people. Logic and facts and on the ground happenings are rejected in favor of theoretical possibilities that have largely now been disproven.

My reply re: antibodies was met with reply that the antibodies fade. That is literally what antibodies are supposed to do. Lol.

The current neoliberal media is evil and feeds on fear and distrust. So many here are in the depths of the pits of despair they have created. I think some will remain but some will see themselves out. Most will, sooner or later. The alternative is terrible.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8237 on: August 10, 2020, 03:50:44 AM »

It hasn't merited, and still doesn't merit, to be presented as a silent serial killer zombie virus plague that will kill everybody who is not a paranoid, hypochondriac germophobe, trying to live forever.


Agreed. But you are the only one presenting it that way.
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8238 on: August 10, 2020, 07:43:21 AM »

Yes, and that's because there is lots of obesity there, and lots of old people that are artificially being kept alive with bags full of pills every day. And then, when a minor novel virus comes along, the whole house of cards come crashing down.

So, what do we do, blame that minor virus or the vulnerable structure that has been erected to create another stream to flow to concentrated wealth?

The minor virus, of course, as this provides plenty of cover to distract from the systemic aspects of the crisis. And it creates a host of other streams to flow to concentrated wealth! Win-win!

On the one hand I agree that it is mostly the old and "weak" (hypertension, obesity, diabetes, etc) that are dying, and I agree (and you likely know that from the gardening thread) that creating healthier people, healthier ecosystems, healthier cities, healthier agriculture is key. On the other hand I do not understand why you try to deny the very high (cca 1%) mortality in developed nations. On the third hand :) as mortality is obviously age-based it was likely from the beginning that very young nations (eg. most of Africa and India) will have low mortality. I think if you went to Africa and started doing antibody tests you would have surprisingly high numbers there as well. This virus will have swept over them with hardly noticing it. And yet, even relatively young nations with lots of obese people who are on a bad diet have suffered much, like most of Latin America where areas have 0,3-0,5% mortality despite average age under 30. I think that is because of bad diets and the resulting problems  (see: https://www.thelancet.com/campaigns/kidney/updates/obesity-and-overweight-populations-in-latin-america   "In 2014, more than 300 million adults in Latin America, were overweight. Of these more than 100 million were obese". )
Anyway, I argue about numbers which I think are quite clear: the older and less healthy population you have the higher mortality goes, even above 1% in developed societies. And there is also no use denying that if the virus was allowed to sweep over the globe then health care systems would collapse as cca 3-5% of infected end up in hospitals in Europe for many weeks.
I see your points but I do not see what solution you advise. Neglecting the virus won't make it go away and won't stop helat care systems from collapsing. 

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8239 on: August 10, 2020, 08:55:46 AM »
Coronavirus: New Zealand marks 100 days without community spread
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53715084

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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8240 on: August 10, 2020, 10:15:26 AM »
Agreed. But you are the only one presenting it that way.

Oh, come on, Archimid! Aren't you watching the news? In the US it's even worse, because a) it's an incredibly unhealthy nation, and b) there's a desire to use COVID-19 to bring down Trump (because it can't be done using issues that the donors don't approve of).

And it's not just the presentation, it's also simply the amount of attention. For more than 100 days nothing else has existed in the media. Imagine them doing that during a bad flu season.

Nothing good can come out of this!
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8241 on: August 10, 2020, 12:26:04 PM »
El Cid. Right on point that this is a disease for wealthy nations of older and higher BMI population.

Neven. The secret to Sweden's "sucess" was compliance. Distancing, hand hygiene, very nice outdoor temperature for the last few months allowing people to comply. Unity of purpose. They have mature, informed population who kept their distance.

Achieving such level of compliance in, for example, Florida, would be extremely difficult without a very strong information campaign, even if the Governor wasn't interested in infecting as many people as fast as possible.
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bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8242 on: August 10, 2020, 01:05:02 PM »
Thanks to the "success" in Sweden a Norwegian municipality of Indre Østfold is shutting down again.

https://www.dn.no/indre-ostfold-stenger-ned-etter-smitteutbrudd/2-1-854698


Quote
- Close the border
- I would urge the government to close the borders to Sweden again, until the situation is under control in both countries, says Saxe Frøshaug.

He believes that the opening of the border has made the situation more difficult for the municipality to handle. The proximity to Sweden, Frøshaug believes, may be the main reason for the spread in the municipality.

- Most of the cohorts we have here are about people who have been abroad, even then in green zones in Sweden, Frøshaug explains.

The municipality has already introduced electronic meetings for its employees and maintains a home office as far as possible. They also limit the possibility for their employees to travel into Sweden, by introducing quarantine for those who take day trips there.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8243 on: August 10, 2020, 01:23:59 PM »
What is the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the US?
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/what-is-the-real-coronavirus-death-toll-in-the-us
Quote
Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show numbers that look similar to recent years.

Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning in mid-March when the virus took hold. That allows comparisons that don’t depend on the availability of coronavirus tests in a given place or on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8244 on: August 10, 2020, 01:34:13 PM »
The secret to Sweden's "sucess" was compliance. Distancing, hand hygiene, very nice outdoor temperature for the last few months allowing people to comply. Unity of purpose. They have mature, informed population who kept their distance.
Yes. It's not just about population density distribution and single households. An important factor is the prevalence of stupidity, a disease far less common in Skandinavia (and parts of Asia).

(Returning to Germany after a few weeks in Finland or Sweden is like a return to the planet of apes. Even in Germany, the Swedish "model" (Covid euthanasia) won't work.)
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8245 on: August 10, 2020, 06:00:30 PM »
Some people have been trying to find the one thing that accounts for why some countries were more successful than others at controlling covid.

This article claims that there is no one thing. Any of a number of successes can be sufficient.

What doesn't work is doing basically everything wrong, and continuing to do nearly everything wrong for months, as the US seems to have done:

Quote
The countries that fared better against COVID‑19 didn’t follow a universal playbook.

• Many used masks widely; New Zealand didn’t.
• Many tested extensively; Japan didn’t.
• Many had science-minded leaders who acted early; Hong Kong didn’t—instead, a grassroots movement compensated for a lax government.
• Many were small islands; not large and continental Germany.

Each nation succeeded because it did enough things right.

Meanwhile, the United States underperformed across the board, and its errors compounded. The dearth of tests allowed unconfirmed cases to create still more cases, which flooded the hospitals, which ran out of masks, which are necessary to limit the virus’s spread. Twitter amplified Trump’s misleading messages, which raised fear and anxiety among people, which led them to spend more time scouring for information on Twitter. Even seasoned health experts underestimated these compounded risks. Yes, having Trump at the helm during a pandemic was worrying, but it was tempting to think that national wealth and technological superiority would save America.

“We are a rich country, and we think we can stop any infectious disease because of that,” says Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “But dollar bills alone are no match against a virus.”


(My formatting)

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/coronavirus-american-failure/614191/
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 07:10:03 PM by wili »
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8246 on: August 10, 2020, 08:00:46 PM »
The virus itself harms everyone, and is now well reported to cause long term damage to a sizable fraction of infected individuals.  There may in fact be more co-morbidity in countries with "unhealthy" aged individuals - that makes the US particularly screwed, as few other places on Earth have the level of co-morbidity.

The global lockdowns halted the first wave, and I do believe there's a possibility that the season affects the severity of the virus. 

Unfortunately, the R0 of this virus is massive, and anything short of total contract tracing, strict isolation, extensive testing, rolling lockdowns, and universal mask wearing will simply not work.

...oh, and international flights have resumed, so we can rest assured that the 14 day asymptomatic period will allow the virus to continue to proliferate on a global scale.

Funny, how the criteria for flying is a negative test, yet the tests are still highly inaccurate, and infected spreaders may not test positive at all. 

Plug those holes, one by one, as the ship sinks...
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 08:34:30 PM by harpy »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8247 on: August 11, 2020, 12:13:32 AM »
...and lots of old people that are artificially being kept alive with bags full of pills every day.
Neven, we know, you didn’t need to go there. Most elderly over 80 or 85 are alive because of the bag of pills. Don’t be insensitive, please. My father died in May 17 (not Covid, just a very old person), should we feel bad because Medicine enlarged his life maybe 10 years and he got to meet two great-grandchildren?
Of course Covid has taken the life of many of those so easily, but yeah even when you have your argument to do and your argument to win, be more considerate (if you can, probably not).

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8248 on: August 11, 2020, 01:50:45 AM »
...and lots of old people that are artificially being kept alive with bags full of pills every day.
Neven, we know, you didn’t need to go there. Most elderly over 80 or 85 are alive because of the bag of pills. Don’t be insensitive, please. My father died in May 17 (not Covid, just a very old person), should we feel bad because Medicine enlarged his life maybe 10 years and he got to meet two great-grandchildren?
Of course Covid has taken the life of many of those so easily, but yeah even when you have your argument to do and your argument to win, be more considerate (if you can, probably not).

+1 with this.

I recently lost my mother, also not Covid, also kept alive due to medications that allowed her to meet more grandkids and see them grow up a bit more.

The thing is this.... humans have always kept old people alive linger than they should. We are a social species, we care for each other, and it works.
Old people give us huge amounts of value in their life experience, knowledge and wisdom.... the West has forgotten this aspect of old people and it is sad.

If people can live longer because of meds, good. What a shame the West is okay with them dying before their time and find them expendable.
The West is a sick culture and it shows in abundance with the attitude of "they are old and sick so it doesn't really count".

Most other cultures are sickened about the attitude of the West towards the elderly and those who need support. While living in a Non-West culture for two years, all I heard about was how strange Westerners are and when they explained their points, I had to agree with them. This virus is exposing a gapping hole in the West in terms of lack of care for other, lack of community, and it shows just how awesfully isolated we have become.

It is not okay to be okay with old people dying before their time, meds or no meds, it doesn't matter. We do what we can, when we can, regardless of the condition of the person we are protecting.

Seriously, this thread is starting to make me sick reading, and several people here need to review their hearts because something is broken in them.

You are argue from the point of view of how bad the virus is or isn't, but to be so blatantly uncaring is just outright wrong. Is it really surprising that the West has created climate change and allows environmental destruction to happen when we cant even care about people who need help in our own backyard?

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8249 on: August 11, 2020, 12:06:45 PM »
On Neven's defense, he is giving us insight into the minds of people like Trump or Bolsonaro. Why do they keep guiding their people trhough the meat grinder?

Well, look at the profile of the victims. The old, the sick, the obese. If you are kept alive by a "bag of pills" you are somehow not worthy of life. Since they aren't worthy of life, they shouldn't be counted, thus the IFR is less than 0.1%.

The "Darwinian" nature of this virus make it irresistible to many.
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