Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 422383 times)

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8300 on: August 13, 2020, 10:49:08 AM »
Calling people hysterical because they don't want to die is hysterical!

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3267
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8301 on: August 13, 2020, 10:53:17 AM »
Quote
It doesn't even put a dent in population growth.

Not unless it gets out of control. However, it puts a huge dent on life expectancy if let run amok. Anyone who might be thinking of someday growing old might not want this virus to be endemic.

Also people who don't want to lose respiratory function should try to avoid.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8302 on: August 13, 2020, 12:55:05 PM »
TWiV 652: Rules of contagion with Adam Kucharski


Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3948
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 642
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8303 on: August 13, 2020, 01:56:08 PM »
How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5
Quote
June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 598
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 269
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8304 on: August 13, 2020, 01:58:27 PM »
James Annan has an interesting thread on Twitter this morning where he discusses a new antibody study in the UK. The study, not peer reviewed yet, is reported in the Guardian. The take home is that 6% of the UK population has antibodies. Total COVID-19 deaths reported on Worldometers is 41,329, which would reflect an IFR of just above 1% if both the serology and death numbers are accurate.
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1293811160094068736?s=20

Shared Humanity

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8305 on: August 13, 2020, 04:04:16 PM »
James Annan has an interesting thread on Twitter this morning where he discusses a new antibody study in the UK. The study, not peer reviewed yet, is reported in the Guardian. The take home is that 6% of the UK population has antibodies. Total COVID-19 deaths reported on Worldometers is 41,329, which would reflect an IFR of just above 1% if both the serology and death numbers are accurate.
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1293811160094068736?s=20

There's that number again but don't worry. Most of those who have died are older or have comorbidities so f'em.

<That was of course what a lot of actual policies came down too. But this probably refers to the earlier debate. Do debate the points and try to interpret things you disagree with in a non personal manner. The latter part is also just a general note. kassy>
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 04:50:15 PM by kassy »

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8306 on: August 13, 2020, 04:40:06 PM »
Quote
Also people who don't want to lose respiratory function should try to avoid.

Coronavirus causes long term brain injury as well.  So that warning should be extended to anyone who needs their brain to function.

For example:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200618111009.htm

it is evident that an increase in one of the biomarkers took place even with moderate COVID-19 .... This marker, known as GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein), is normally present in astrocytes, a star-shaped neuron-supportive cell type in the brain, but leaks out in the event of astrocytic injury or overactivation.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2481
  • Likes Given: 338
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8307 on: August 13, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »
Good to see you again, SH ...

------------------------------

Nearly 6 Percent of People In England May Have Had COVID-19
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201893/largest-study-home-coronavirus-antibody-testing/

Nearly 6 percent of people in England were likely infected with COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic, researchers studying the prevalence of infections said, millions more people than that have tested positive for the disease.

A total of 313,798 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK, 270,971 of which have been in England.

However, a study that tested more than 100,000 people across England for antibodies to the coronavirus showed that nearly 6 percent of people had them, suggesting that 3.4 million people had previously contracted COVID-19 by the end of June.

Prevalence of infections appeared to be the highest in London, where 13 percent of people had antibodies, while minority ethnic groups were two to three times as likely to have had COVID-19 compared with white people.

Study: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820-REACT-2.pdf

The overall infection fatality ratio - the proportion of infected people who died - was calculated to be 0.9%, similar to other countries such as Spain.

Antibodies were found in almost all (96%) of those who had a previous infection confirmed by a swab test. People who had severe symptoms from the disease were twice as likely to have antibodies than those with no symptoms when they were diagnosed with or suspected having COVID-19 (29% vs 14%).

... More than 16% of care home workers with client-facing roles and 12% of healthcare professionals that have direct patient contact. In non-key workers, the rate was around 5%. ...

----------------------------------------

Testing Crisis In Key States Skews Drop In New Cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/accuracy-of-us-coronavirus-data-thrown-into-question-as-decline-in-testing-skews-drop-in-new-cases.html



The coronavirus outbreak appears to be leveling off in the United States as the average number of new cases declines across the country every day, but testing shortages in key states and other gaps in Covid-19 data call into question whether the outbreak is really slowing.

The country recorded an average of 52,875 new cases every day over the last seven days, down 19% from an average of 65,285 new cases per day on July 28, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. However, Covid-19 testing has declined as well, falling from a seven-day average of about 814,000 tests per day two weeks ago to about 716,000, a 12% decline, over the same two-week period, according to data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project, a volunteer project founded by journalists at The Atlantic magazine.

“I really have come to believe we have entered a real, new, emerging crisis with testing and it is making it hard to know where the pandemic is slowing down and where it’s not,” Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said in an interview with CNBC.

The decline in testing is particularly acute in some of the hardest hit states with the worst outbreaks, which further skews the overall case numbers across the U.S.

In Texas, for instance, new cases have fallen by 10% to an average of 7,381 a day from 8,203 two weeks ago, based on a seven-day moving average. Testing, however, is down by 53% over the same time frame. Meanwhile, the percent of positive tests has doubled over the last two weeks to about 24%, according to Johns Hopkins University.



Texas isn’t the only state that’s seen a drop in testing in recent weeks, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Testing has fallen in other states, including Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee, which are home to some of the country’s largest Covid-19 outbreaks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1293309888869756929

... “How pathetic are we as a nation that six months into this pandemic, we can’t get this stuff right? We don’t have enough tests. Tests are taking two weeks,” he said. “We can’t figure out where the outbreaks are getting better or worse because our numbers are so messed up that we’re having to squint at the data.”

Catherine Troisi, an epidemiologist with The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, said that while testing varies across different regions of the state, overall, it has dropped off substantially at a critical time in the outbreak. The increasing portion of tests coming back positive indicates that the state should be testing more, not less, especially as school districts prepare to reopen in the coming weeks, which she expects to complicate the outbreak even more.

“We know we’re missing a lot of people. Basically, we don’t know what’s happening,”

... President Donald Trump said essentially the same thing at a July 14 press conference. “Think of this, if we didn’t do testing, instead of testing over 40 million people, if we did half the testing we would have half the cases,” he said at the time.

Smith, however, said the cases don’t actually go away. Public health officials just don’t know who’s infected.

----------------------------------------

U.S. Records Over 1,500 Deaths, for the Deadliest Day Since May



... While the daily number of new Covid-19 deaths is far below the 2,000-plus daily new deaths that the country saw in March and April, the daily death toll remains stubbornly high.

Daily new deaths are rising rapidly in Georgia, according to a CNBC analysis of Hopkins data. Georgia reported 105 new deaths on Wednesday, pushing the state's seven-day average passed 67 deaths per day, more than 38% higher than a week ago, according to CNBC's analysis.

---------------------------------------

The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.

As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic.

As the number of hot spots expanded, so has the number of excess deaths across other parts of the country. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South and the West may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social distancing restrictions.

... Nine of the 13 states in the South started seeing excess deaths surge in July, months into the pandemic. A spike in cases in places like Texas put pressure on hospitals, echoing the chaos that ensued in New York months earlier. South Carolina, among the first states to reopen retail stores, saw deaths reach 1.6 times normal levels in mid-July.

Unlike other states in this region, Louisiana saw its excess deaths peak in April — when total deaths reached 1.7 times normal levels. Medical experts said Mardi Gras gatherings most likely contributed to this spike.

... Counting deaths takes time and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. The estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. Even with this adjustment, it’s possible there could be an underestimate of the complete death toll if increased mortality is causing states to lag more than they have in the past or if states have changed their reporting systems.


----------------------------------



----------------------------------

Critics of Sweden's Coronavirus Strategy Call for More Restrictions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/swedens-coronavirus-critics-urge-more-caution-to-avoid-a-second-wave.html

Critics of Sweden's coronavirus strategy have called for more protective measures to be put in place ahead of a potential second wave of the virus once the summer is over.

Writing in Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, Goran K. Hansson, the general-secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Economist Lars Calmfors called for a change in the country's strategy towards the virus, one that has seen it shun a lockdown in favor of largely voluntary measures.

"It is now time to review the corona strategy," Hansson and Calmfors wrote in an op-ed Tuesday. "The beginning of autumn may be crucial for the corona pandemic's continued development in the country. A real retake is needed for the continued infection control strategy so that the spread of infection is kept down while waiting for both better treatment methods and vaccines," they said.

Sweden has seen a far higher death toll than its neighbors, with almost 5,800 deaths. The critics said the number of fatalities represented a "national catastrophe" for Sweden and called for more cost-effective measures, including quarantines for travelers from countries with a large number of infections, and face masks in public environments.

----------------------------------
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 10:25:30 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8308 on: August 13, 2020, 06:11:01 PM »
Good to see you again, SH ...

+1

Welcome back! Glad to see you around.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3948
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 642
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8309 on: August 13, 2020, 06:22:21 PM »
I notice the Trump shirt guy in the Modern World strip above says "People die of all kind of things! It is what it is!".
Sound like somebody on this forum?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Shared Humanity

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8310 on: August 13, 2020, 06:34:44 PM »
James Annan has an interesting thread on Twitter this morning where he discusses a new antibody study in the UK. The study, not peer reviewed yet, is reported in the Guardian. The take home is that 6% of the UK population has antibodies. Total COVID-19 deaths reported on Worldometers is 41,329, which would reflect an IFR of just above 1% if both the serology and death numbers are accurate.
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1293811160094068736?s=20

There's that number again but don't worry. Most of those who have died are older or have comorbidities so f'em.

<That was of course what a lot of actual policies came down too. But this probably refers to the earlier debate. Do debate the points and try to interpret things you disagree with in a non personal manner. The latter part is also just a general note. kassy>

Fair enough.

I guess the point is that the true IFR is likely around 1%.

In New York State the fatality rate is currently 1690 deaths per million residents. This would be an IFR of 0.17% if every New York State resident had contracted the disease. Tests, however indicate that about 25% of NYC residents were infected and perhaps as little as 5% of non metro residents. Yet I see people tossing around estimates of 0.1% or 0.2% with absolutely nothing to back that number up. This thing is at least 10 times as deadly as the flu.

And the comparison to the flu from a science perspective is highly dangerous as well. This disease's infectious path may be the respiratory tract but the science has shown it is a vascular disease, able to damage organs throughout the body, wherever there are high concentrations of ACE2 receptors. People have pulmonary embolisms, heart attacks, permanently damaged kidneys, lungs and hearts and as yet unexplained neurological damage. This is not the freakin' flu.

(When I recreated my account 2 days ago, I did it with the intention of explaining more thoroughly my reason for leaving this site. The comment did not pass moderation and I am fine with that. Below is a condensed version.)

1. I was attracted to this site in 2013 by its grounding in science.
2. I am dismayed by persons on this thread for whom I had developed a great deal of respect who have abandoned all science in arguing how inconsequential this disease is.
3. This has caused me to question in a very personal way why I come here.

I hope this comment passes muster.


<I think you are wrong on count 2. Neven chose a category in his description. The actual detail was not really important because it was more about the media in general. One problem is that we make a division when someone foregrounds an issue and then people focus on the less important part as intended by the poster.

If we would all be on voice comms you can ask quick questions to clarify. Here we can´t but we can ask slow questions before jumping to conclusions.

This is a general point not for SH per se.
kassy>
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 07:28:22 PM by kassy »

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2392
  • Likes Given: 2044
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8311 on: August 13, 2020, 06:38:42 PM »
Good to see you again, SH ...

+1

Welcome back! Glad to see you around.
Indeed!

Shared Humanity

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8312 on: August 13, 2020, 08:04:54 PM »
(When I recreated my account 2 days ago, I did it with the intention of explaining more thoroughly my reason for leaving this site. The comment did not pass moderation and I am fine with that. Below is a condensed version.)

1. I was attracted to this site in 2013 by its grounding in science.
2. I am dismayed by persons on this thread for whom I had developed a great deal of respect who have abandoned all science in arguing how inconsequential this disease is.
3. This has caused me to question in a very personal way why I come here.

I hope this comment passes muster.


<I think you are wrong on count 2. Neven chose a category in his description. The actual detail was not really important because it was more about the media in general. One problem is that we make a division when someone foregrounds an issue and then people focus on the less important part as intended by the poster.

If we would all be on voice comms you can ask quick questions to clarify. Here we can´t but we can ask slow questions before jumping to conclusions.

This is a general point not for SH per se.
kassy>


Thank you Kassy for allowing this comment to post.

As for point 2, I am dismayed.

I did not single out Neven and, if I had the time or inclination, (I don't) I could go back into this thread and find numerous persons who have dismissed the data and argued for a ridiculously low IFR and dismissed the science that points to serious health problems for many who recover from the virus, the kinds of health problems you never find from persons who have recovered from the flu.

At any rate, the three numbered points above stand. They accurately and succinctly summarize exactly where I am. While I suspect this is my last comment on this site, I will not hastily delete the account this time. This will allow me to reconsider this decision in the future.

Everyone - Take care and stay safe.


<Another general comment: The main interest for this site is the Arctic ice. You can ignore huge parts of this site and still do things. Or even read AGWiG/C and just ignore covid. kassy>
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 08:19:22 PM by kassy »

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8313 on: August 13, 2020, 08:52:02 PM »
James Annan has an interesting thread on Twitter this morning where he discusses a new antibody study in the UK. The study, not peer reviewed yet, is reported in the Guardian. The take home is that 6% of the UK population has antibodies. Total COVID-19 deaths reported on Worldometers is 41,329, which would reflect an IFR of just above 1% if both the serology and death numbers are accurate.
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1293811160094068736?s=20

The Worldometer figure is a deliberate undercount. The UK took 5000 off that figure yesterday, a large fraction of whom had COVID on their death certificates.

The place to go for cumulative counts is the death certificates. They have their own issues, but at the current state of the epidemic are a much better way to count than the government's headline figure.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

This is England and Wales rather than the whole UK, but forget 41k, the toll is somewhere in the 50s.
Excess deaths to July 31st
Quote
between Weeks 13 and 31, 241,180 deaths were registered, which was 57,749 more than the five-year average
Death certificates to July 31st
Quote
Of the deaths registered by 31 July, 51,710 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate

I think the healthcare data on ventilated patients is now the figure to follow if you want current data on severe outcomes in the UK, not the headline death figure. The downward trend in that reversed at the beginning of August, about a month after the downward trend in positive cases reversed. There were 201 COVID mentions on death certificates in the week 31, I suspect the downward trend in those is a month away from reversing too.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18325
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8314 on: August 13, 2020, 09:31:32 PM »
"There is no scientific evidence that meat transmits the virus."
But, “the coronavirus can survive freezing temperatures and still be active when thawed.”

Chicken wings test positive for Covid-19 in China, but there's no evidence of food transmission, experts say
Quote
A sample of frozen chicken wings imported from Brazil has tested positive for the novel coronavirus in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, authorities said Thursday, the latest in a series of reports of contaminated imported food products.

The coronavirus was detected Wednesday on a surface sample taken from a batch of chicken wings during screening of imported frozen food in Longgang district of Shenzhen, the municipal government said in a statement. Officials did not name the brand.

Health authorities, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have said the possibility of catching the virus through food is low.


David Hui Shu-cheong, a respiratory medicine expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the imported food products that tested positive in China were almost certain to have been contaminated during packaging.

But he said it doesn't necessarily mean that they're infectious -- the nucleic acid tests could be picking up the RNA of dead virus. These remnants of the virus are known to have caused false positive results on patients who have recovered from the coronavirus, such as in South Korea.

If the virus taken from the food products can be grown in labs, however, then they are infectious, he said, adding that the coronavirus can survive freezing temperatures and still be active when thawed. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/13/asia/china-coronavirus-chicken-wings-intl-hnk/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8315 on: August 13, 2020, 09:37:51 PM »
As for point 2, I am dismayed.

I am too, Shared Humanity.

Quote from Kassy:

Quote
I think you are wrong on count 2. Neven chose a category in his description. The actual detail was not really important because it was more about the media in general. One problem is that we make a division when someone foregrounds an issue and then people focus on the less important part as intended by the poster.

Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus. This is what people oppose obviously.

All this shouldn't happen on a scientifically oriented forum. He drove away valued community members by doing so. You cannot comment those facts away. Just telling people to not read this thread isn't helping either.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8316 on: August 13, 2020, 09:44:47 PM »
As for point 2, I am dismayed.

I am too, Shared Humanity.

Quote from Kassy:

Quote
I think you are wrong on count 2. Neven chose a category in his description. The actual detail was not really important because it was more about the media in general. One problem is that we make a division when someone foregrounds an issue and then people focus on the less important part as intended by the poster.

Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus. This is what people oppose obviously.

All this shouldn't happen on a scientifically oriented forum. He drove away valued community members by doing so. You cannot comment those facts away. Just telling people to not read this thread isn't helping either.
I love how you guys have hijacked Neven's forum with unscientific thought and now dismiss his opinions as "unscientific" when they are grounded in reality.

SH's return is grounded in untrue facts. He cites facts and figures for NYC that are inaccurate. NYC's death rate is actually .3%+ of the entire population.

The dishonest side here is the vast majority of the posters on this forum, but that is fine, because they want to be hysterical and miserable. lol.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 598
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 269
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8317 on: August 13, 2020, 10:00:54 PM »

The Worldometer figure is a deliberate undercount. The UK took 5000 off that figure yesterday, a large fraction of whom had COVID on their death certificates.

Which is to say, if the serology is right, the IFR is well north of 1%.

pietkuip

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 346
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 282
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8318 on: August 13, 2020, 10:04:00 PM »

I'm posting something in the Lessons thread that explains why this leads to totalitarianism. The bullies of the techno-meritocratic superiority complex fanclub are not going to like it (Martin Gisser, Blumi, Arch).

This is where I got really dismayed. :(

Critics of Sweden's Coronavirus Strategy Call for More Restrictions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/swedens-coronavirus-critics-urge-more-caution-to-avoid-a-second-wave.html

Critics of Sweden's coronavirus strategy have called for more protective measures to be put in place ahead of a potential second wave of the virus once the summer is over.

Writing in Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, Goran K. Hansson, the general-secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Economist Lars Calmfors called for a change in the country's strategy towards the virus, one that has seen it shun a lockdown in favor of largely voluntary measures.

"It is now time to review the corona strategy," Hansson and Calmfors wrote in an op-ed Tuesday. "The beginning of autumn may be crucial for the corona pandemic's continued development in the country. A real retake is needed for the continued infection control strategy so that the spread of infection is kept down while waiting for both better treatment methods and vaccines," they said.

Sweden has seen a far higher death toll than its neighbors, with almost 5,800 deaths. The critics said the number of fatalities represented a "national catastrophe" for Sweden and called for more cost-effective measures, including quarantines for travelers from countries with a large number of infections, and face masks in public environments.

That was a strange opinion piece. Calmfors is an economist, retired now. He was the main economic authority in favour of Sweden adopting the Euro. I think most people are happy now that that did not happen. But the guy is still often asked for supposedly neutral expert opinion.

They did not really "call for" anything, just suggested to consider such measures like quarantines. Which should not help much as there is still quite a bit of virus around here. Yesterday, my daughter told me that three close friends of hers had it (symptoms and positive tests).

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8319 on: August 13, 2020, 10:05:15 PM »
There's weaselling going on in that Imperial College preprint and the reporting on it to get the IFR as low as 0.9%.

Its an "adults in the community" figure. The preprint submission actually says

Quote
The estimated community IFR (excluding care homes) was 0.9% (0.86, 0.94), increasing with age and higher in males (1.07%, 1.00, 1.15) than females (0.71%, 0.67, 0.75) (Table 3). Sensitivity analyses indicate an IFR as high as 1.58% (1.51%, 1.65%) if excess rather than COVID-specific deaths are used and care home deaths are included (Table S2).

To get an IFR of 0.9% they only counted 30180 deaths. They leave out more deaths from their count than the UK government does from its count!

The prevalence look to have been quite carefully investigated where its been done, but because important sectors of the population weren't tested for antibodies and deaths in those segments weren't counted, that 0.9% IFR isn't representative of the whole population.

The Cambridge modellers estimate it at 1.4% for the whole population which I think is consistent with the Imperial College data.

greylib

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 124
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8320 on: August 13, 2020, 10:32:20 PM »
Five months ago, I posted a piece from Private Eye's MD columnist. Here's an extract:
Quote
The hand-washing campaign has been a roaring success. Early figures suggest it may have delayed the surge of Covid-19, and is likely to have reduced the incidence of seasonal influenza, food poisoning, hepatitis A, threadworm and pubic hair in Caesar salad.

For the UK public at large, the risk of a coronavirus death remains low. The predicted range is that out of every 100 random Brits, 99 won't die from Cov-19 this year (worst scenario) to out of every 1,000 people, 999 won't die from Cov-19 (best scenario).

All eyes will now switch to the overall death figures. The Office for National Statistics provides a weekly tally for those with a strong stomach. The week ending 10 January was the worst of the year so far, with 14,058 deaths. But it's fallen every week since to 10,816 in the week ended 28 February. Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years.

I like to think it's the handwashing.
Here's the latest column from the same doctor. It's long, and deals with UK problems rather than US ones, but a lot of what he says touches on some of the more virulent (yes, that's deliberate!) arguments on here:
Quote
PANDEMIC UPDATE: MD ON THE SICK MAN OF EUROPE

Going local
NOW that Covid deaths have reduced to a trickle, and excess deaths have been below the five-year average for six weeks, the temptation for those blissfully unaffected is to dismiss the pandemic as a bad dream and our response to it as an absurd overreaction.

Alternatively, the media jumps on every fresh outbreak as evidence of an impending second wave that could be worse than the first one. MD takes a middle view. Covid is clearly a deeply unpleasant infectious disease, with both a significant fatality rate and severe long-term health consequences. Doing nothing was never an option.

However, outsourcing was predictably the wrong option. Health secretary Matt Hancock's mates have failed to deliver on test and trace, and trust in the UK government to handle the situation competently has taken a hammering since chief adviser Dominic Cummings' lockdown road trip.

The best hope of avoiding another lockdown is for local public health teams and councils to use their local knowledge and expertise when clusters emerge, as many are already doing. Find, test, trace, isolate and support. In Toxteth, a small outbreak was managed by imposing restrictions on just a few streets, with volunteers going door to door to explain them. Such a swift, localised response should avoid the need for shutting down a whole city or region.

Who we test
TESTS are most useful and accurate when used in a population most likely to have what you're testing for. Care homes have borne the brunt of Covid deaths and the government wisely promised regular testing of almost 2m residents and staff starting on 6 July. It now appears to have delayed or abandoned this pledge, which makes no sense, preferring to concentrate on widespread testing of asymptomatic people in the community, where prevalence rates are much lower and the risk of false positives (being told you have the disease when you don't) is much higher. This, in turn, could lead to false-positive lockdowns. Again, local authorities need to take control of testing where it's needed.

Long Covid
COVID is much less likely to be fatal in the under-50s, but evidence is emerging that it may cause severe long-term health consequences even if the initial infection appeared relatively mild.

A small study of 100 German patients who had recovered from Covid used MRI scans of the heart and found that 78 had "cardiac involvement" and 60 had ongoing myocardial inflammation, which was independent of any other conditions they had, how severe the illness was and how long it lasted (see the journal JAMA Cardiology). Whether this translates to long-term damage remains to be seen. In terms of lung damage, the NHS is anticipating Covid survivors will have more chronic cough, fibrotic lung disease, bronchiectasis and pulmonary vascular disease.

Those who have been in intensive care will have long-term rehabilitation needs and the Long Covid Support Group is capturing a multitude of symptoms beyond fatigue (www.longcovid.org). The Zoe study estimates that up to 10 percent of people with the virus take at least three weeks to recover, with 250,000 people in the UK alone thought to experience symptoms for 30 days or more. Brain fog, chronic pain, headaches, dizziness, nausea, palpitations, shortness of breath, post-exertional malaise and a severe reduction in everyday activities. And many are suffering understandable anxiety and low mood. Overall, it's a virus best avoided.

And the winners are...
THE Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a handy half-way table of deaths, with the most accurate like-for-like comparison of how 23 European countries and regions have fared from January to June 2020. It used two measures: all-cause "excess" mortality compared with the average of the previous five years; and age-standardised mortality rates, which provide a fairer comparison between populations of different sizes and age distributions, rather than a simple count of deaths.

As expected, England came out on top, with nearly 8 percent extra deaths over the five-year average so far, and outbreaks widely spread across the country rather than localised in one or two regions. Spain came in second (7 percent extra), Scotland in third (5 percent) and Belgium in fourth (4 percent). Wales and Northern Ireland are fifth and eighth respectively. Overall, the UK is poorly placed but Scotland has done 60 percent better than England so far, with Wales and Northern Ireland better still.

In 14 of the 23 countries considered, age-standardised mortality for 2020 has been below the 2015-19 average. For a nation as wealthy as the UK, we should have performed better.

One hit wonder?
SWEDEN didn't lockdown and was also high up the excess death league table (6th' 3 percent) with a high number of deaths in care homes. However, it still managed a much smaller proportion of excess deaths with much less social disruption, psychological meltdown and economic damage. The UK GDP is predicted to shrink by 9.5 percent this year, with Sweden's likely to fall by 4.7 percent. And it now appears to have the virus under better control than England.

Sweden did not, however, "carry on as normal". Its government recognised that Sars-CoV-2 was a high-risk pathogen and that doing nothing was not an option. There was no full lockdown, but there was extensive public health advice and many parts of Swedish society slowed down. Non-essential businesses, cafes and restaurants remained open with restrictions; but many citizens voluntarily chose to stay at home and many stopped travelling. Businesses have folded and unemployment is expected to rise, but not as dramatically as in the UK. Sweden did not shut down schools for younger children or childcare facilities, and had no regulations that forced citizens to remain in their homes. It didn't need to because the majority of Swedes understood and accepted the risks and complied with measures voluntarily. Sweden, like the UK, was unable to protect care home residents but its health service has coped well.

We don't yet know whether Covid is over in Sweden. The numbers are currently very low. How much herd immunity it has gained from its more liberal approach, how long that immunity will last and how many of its citizens will suffer debilitating "long-Covid" symptoms is yet to be determined. What we do know is that the UK has currently got worse outcomes than Sweden, both economically and clinically.

Could UK have copied Sweden?
YES, but again our outcomes would likely have been far worse than Sweden's. The UK is a much more overcrowded and busier travel hub than Sweden, and with little border control the pandemic "loading dose" in the UK was much higher and more widely spread, so health services would have been under much greater pressure without lockdown.

The UK is also singularly ill-placed to cope with Covid. Our public health is appalling. We have emerged from the pandemic as the Sick Man of Europe because we were the Sick Man of Europe before it started. Covid has just acted as an accelerator of pre-existing risks and inequalities. The UK puts much less into its health and social care system than Sweden. Sweden has a much better life expectancy than the UK (where improvements have stalled for two years running). The UK has far greater levels of poverty, over-crowding, obesity and chronic disease than Sweden. If the UK had tried the Swedish approach without lockdown, the wave of serious illness would have overwhelmed the NHS, because we can barely cope with the wave of serious illnesses that aren't Covid. Yet many are preventable.

Too many Brits take too little personal responsibility for their health, junk food is everywhere and the state does not help those most in need. Two thirds of those who have died from Covid in the UK were already living with disability, and 80 percent had one or more pre-existing illnesses. Sweden, on the other hand, is one of the fittest nations in Europe, the ideal country to test a more relaxed approach.

Unmasking the evidence
MASKS were made obligatory in England on 24 July, when the seven-day rolling average on infections was 677 cases. A week after mask-protection, cases were up to 820. Does this mean masks don't work?

It could do. Or it could mean they work but people aren't wearing them properly. Or that the people most likely to spread are too irresponsible to wear them. Or it could be because we're testing more people and so we're bound to find more cases, irrespective of masks Or that loosening lockdown has led to a rise in cases which may - or may not - have been curtailed by masks.

MD wears a mask in crowded places on the precautionary principle (not sure if it works, worth a try, doesn't appear to do me any harm, don't want to appear an uncaring dick), but now would be a good time to do more trials or we may never know if all the discarded masks in the ocean are worth it.

How we doctor
HEALTH secretary Matt Hancock is keen to solve the NHS staffing crisis by switching everyone to triage and video consultations before they can see a GP face to face or attend an emergency department. On the plus side, many problems can be safely sorted over phone or video. But complex problems can't be addressed, and serious illness can be easily missed and misdiagnosed without examination.

As any surgeon will tell you: "If you don't put your finger in it, you'll put your foot in it." Also, it's hard to support a grieving elderly patient who isn't very tech savvy, has a poor intemet connection and a fraction of her face in view.

Post-Covid, we may move into the world of disclaimers: we can offer you a video consultation but not a certain diagnosis - and please don't show us your genitals; we can offer you a dental appointment but please sign here that you accept the Covid risk; we can offer you a Covid vaccine or drug but it has been developed much more quickly than we'd like so please sign here to accept any unforeseen side-effects.

Proper doctoring and proper science require time, but a pandemic doesn't give you time. So you have to guess, and guess again...

Overcrowded and unequal
THE best protection against Covid - and, indeed, just about any disease - is wealth. Wealth buys you nutritious food, clean water, safe shelter, temperature control, social status and space. Infectious diseases spread in overcrowded homes and workplaces, and kill those who were already least healthy. The Covid death rate in poor areas of the UK is more than double that in rich areas. Wealth buys you, on average, an extra eight years of life and 20 more years of disease-free living compared to poverty.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2602
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8321 on: August 13, 2020, 10:54:11 PM »
Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus. This is what people oppose obviously.

Well that is a whole lot slander or projection.

The valid fear of dieing also is not an issue on the internet.

People should look at issues in a less emotional laden way which is something you have a bit of a problem with. It does not matter what IFR you calculate on the internet because que sera, sera. There are all kinds of other things to discuss like the actual handling of this crisis while people prefer to froth at the mouth when Donny mention HQC.

1 What you talk about on the internet does not really effect the meatworld much
2 It would probably be more interesting to see where or why the actual difference pops up and the measurement of that is not your actual allergies.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8322 on: August 13, 2020, 11:16:25 PM »
The valid fear of dieing also is not an issue on the internet.

Correct, you don't get the virus from using the internet. (Unless your keyboard was sneezed on by an infectious person of course)

Quote
People should look at issues in a less emotional laden way which is something you have a bit of a problem with.

Is that so? Textbook ad hominem here BTW: If you have no argument, discredit the person.

Quote
It does not matter what IFR you calculate

Well, never have i ever calculated or even talked about the IFR. I think this is beside the point. This virus is killing people and making them sick in huge numbers. That's the only metric i use.

Quote
There are all kinds of other things to discuss like the actual handling of this crisis while people prefer to froth at the mouth when Donny mention HQC.

Yeah, and i have expressed my opinion on all kinds of things regarding the pandemic. What are you even trying to say with this?

Quote
1 What you talk about on the internet does not really effect the meatworld much

I know this is your opinion. And i happen to find this statement incredibly naive. This forum is widely read. When fake news is posted here, it gives the lie credibility, because this is a scientific forum. Bad actors can say, "See, even the administrator of the ASIF says it's just like the flu."

If what happens on the internet would stay on the internet, there wouldn't be autistic children out there who are forced to drink bleach as a 'cure'. There wouldn't be flat-earther or Q-anons. ETC!!!

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3267
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8323 on: August 14, 2020, 12:27:45 AM »
Quote
It does not matter what IFR you calculate on the internet because que sera, sera.

Of course it matters. It also matters to stick to the best possible evidence. It matters that we always search for the truth even if we never find it.

I can't belive you said this Kassy. There are many good post with many good calculations in this thread. They are searching for truth, which is what we are here for, and why Neven actions are so disruptive.

He is the master mod.  He created this place. His words carry weight regardless of how deceiving they are.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2481
  • Likes Given: 338
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8324 on: August 14, 2020, 12:39:20 AM »
Quote
... It does not matter what IFR you calculate on the internet because que sera, sera.

... like saying ...

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

greylib

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 124
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8325 on: August 14, 2020, 12:41:16 AM »
Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus. This is what people oppose obviously.
You post something like that and then have the audacity to complain about a "textbook ad hominem"? I've watched for weeks while your attacks on Neven get more and more out of control. "Emotional" covers it quite well, I think.

I challenge you to go through my post from Private Eye, from a real working doctor. He's saying much the same as Neven. He says it more calmly, but the points you've made against Neven, particularly the "victim blaming" are all there.  Would you care to make a calm, rational, scientific rebuttal?

The other main thrust from Neven is his theory that a lot of the hysterical Covid publicity is part of some sort of Illuminati conspiracy. I'm not saying he's right, but I'm not saying he's wrong. My opinion is that, true or false, there's nothing I can do to change things, so I put it to the back of my mind. Like starving children worldwide, wars, honour killings, racism, misogyny, misandry (becoming more common, but still rare), mass extinctions, desertification... the list is long. I do what I can, but if I spent all my time wailing about how bad the world is, I wouldn't have any time left to enjoy myself. And I intend to do so, for as long as I can.

Perhaps you're part of the Illuminati yourself, which is why you're attacking Neven so strongly? But I doubt it. You enjoy internet fighting, and you're quite good at it. But as I've said before - not here, please. It adds to the noise, without illuminating anything. You can't actually disprove anything Neven's saying. Time will tell, I expect, but it'll be at least a year, and probably more like two years, before we have reliable data on the pandemic. Hopefully soon enough to guide us for the next one.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2602
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8326 on: August 14, 2020, 01:34:15 AM »
re 8324.

Contrast stuff people think what happens with what actually happens.

You or me posting does not make a difference. Our expert advisers saying that front line workers only needed to be tested when they had actual symptoms was BS early on. Because we knew we had transfer without symptoms early on. And also a lot of those workers worked both hospitals and jobs caring for the elderly and there was no safeguard because as a society we actually did not care.

So that killed a lot of people.

Can´t blame anyone here for that but no one is going to grill the guilty parties. Not sure if there is a next time but it might just happen again and if you want to stop that you need to change the system and you probably can´t do that just by being indignanton the internet.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7758
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1134
  • Likes Given: 526
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8327 on: August 14, 2020, 02:12:29 AM »
The other main thrust from Neven is his theory that a lot of the hysterical Covid publicity is part of some sort of Illuminati conspiracy.

In my own defence - and I wish had more time to reply to comments, especially the twisting and slandering - but the Illuminati conspiracy stuff is wrong. That's not what I'm pushing at all. What I always say, is that the number one goal of the current global system is to increase concentrated wealth. That's not because there's some occult cabal conspiring to do so, but because this is simply what happens when wealth reaches a certain size and level of concentration. It takes over, and then increasingly worse things happen, until it destroys itself and the cycle begins anew.

Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus.

Everything you wrote here, is either untrue or an exaggeration. Apparently, you are stuck in fighting-fascism-mode so much that just one small trigger is enough to convince you that you are dealing with 'The Enemy', and your reading comprehension goes down the drain. Or maybe you're just trolling to break this forum.

Either way, I thought that making you a moderator would make you less combative, authoritarian and annoying. Having to take on different roles can broaden one's horizon by empathizing with other perspectives, leading to further levels of understanding and wisdom. You, however, remain stuck in very simplistic and naive Us vs Them antagonisms, with no deeper analysis, wider overview or vision to speak of. Just the gut lashing out, a bit like a Trump supporter.

So, how about I revoke those moderator rights, and you can just be yourself, without having to take on a responsibility you're not cut our for?

Quote
All this shouldn't happen on a scientifically oriented forum. He drove away valued community members by doing so.

The only scientifically oriented part of this forum is the one about Arctic sea ice. That was the intended goal of this whole thing. It's the only thing that makes this forum valuable. The rest is BS that can be found all over the Internet.

Members who don't understand this, who don't understand how the Internet works, and clutch their pearls and walk off indignantly when Neven says a minor virus doesn't deserve this amount of hype, are not valued. They need to stop putting me on a pedestal and extrapolating my work on Arctic sea ice to all my other opinions. I'm just some idiot.

And if they can make an effort to actually understand what I'm trying to stay, instead of letting it get stuck in filters and projections, that'd be great. No need to twist my words so that it can be dismissed as nazi covidiot conspiracy stuff.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 02:29:49 AM by Neven »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 796
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8328 on: August 14, 2020, 02:32:54 AM »
Reply is on forum decorum thread.

sidd
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 07:33:38 AM by sidd »

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2392
  • Likes Given: 2044
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8329 on: August 14, 2020, 03:57:33 AM »
I challenge you to go through my post from Private Eye, from a real working doctor. He's saying much the same as Neven.
I though the MD piece was very well written, and covered the facts well (at least the quote you posted, did not read the whole thing). I honestly couldn't see how it said much the same as Neven, but then I am having trouble understanding what Neven is saying because he is mixing various issues together.

In general I wish the Covid discussion would be separated to:
* Scientific facts and estimates about Covid - transmission, R, symptoms, long-term effects, IFR in various populations, similarity or dissimilarity to flu, reliability of tests, number of new cases, excess mortality, prevalence of antibodies, treatment methods, vaccine development, effectiveness of various masks, transmission in children, etc.
* Policies of handling Covid from health perspective - mandatory or voluntary masks, health effectiveness of lockdowns vs other measures, who should be tested, what to do about care homes, local vs. national management, letting it rip through the population or delaying infections as much as possible, health effects of opening or closing schools, mandatory vaccination or not, and other health policy debates.
* Background of Covid - how we got here. The system. Healthiness of various populations. Junk food. Robustness of various healthcare systems. Starvation of health budgets.
* Economics of Covid (this has naturally fuzzy borders with health policies and with politics) - cost vs benefit of health handling strategies, impact on national and local economies, universal basic income during crisis, money printing, unemployment, impact on people's spending habits, economic policy debates.
* Politics of Covid - denialism, shock doctrine, totalitarianism, portrayal in the media, further concentration of wealth, mass hysteria and panic or lack thereof, response of various politicians around the globe.
* Lessons from Covid - what can it teach us about future crises? About combating AGW? How to build a more robust system? Hopefully these lessons will have something to do with Covid, rather than repeating what we already knew in advance.

I know the above partition can be made in different ways, but I especially lament the inability to separate facts from economics and politics. On a science-oriented forum, fact-finding should be objective and irrespective of preferences on the other issues.

Rod

  • Guest
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8330 on: August 14, 2020, 06:32:19 AM »

So, how about I revoke those moderator rights, and you can just be yourself, without having to take on a responsibility you're not cut our for?


This is not a good look for you Neven.  It is very odd to see mods fighting with each other in public view.  I have never seen this before on any other forum I have ever participated in.

I’m all for transparency, so I’m not saying it’s bad. 

However, pulling rank and threatening to demote someone in the middle of an argument just because you don’t like what he says is a low blow.

If you want to fight with each other, have at it.  But don’t try to intimidate your opponent simply because you have a higher rank than he does.  It detracts from your message.   

EDIT: I changed my mind on this. I think this entire thread is too toxic and should be shut down. All it is doing is making people fight with each other. No one is going to change anyone else’s mind. So it is not worth it to keep trying. These attacks on each other are not worth it. Let’s get back to talking about the sea ice! 
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 07:16:50 AM by Rod »

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1326
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 568
  • Likes Given: 105
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8331 on: August 14, 2020, 08:01:35 AM »
Everyone needs to calm down. This is a very valuable thread and I learnt a lot reading it. People present news, facts, views, perceptions, studies, everything. And from all this we can create an understanding of the virus. This also helps us judge how we need to behave in the world. However, upon all these data, facts and personal views some come to different conclusions than others. It is all right as long as anyone can present their views and is not roasted for it. We need to keep it like that. Some have their pet theories. If you don't agree, argue with them, present facts, data, etc (or ignore them). Eventually the community comes to some sort of a consensus. That is how science works.

(I remember that there were heated arguments about R and IFR then as the data came in we came to a consensus of sorts. Some couldn't accept that and left. Sometimes there are new challanges to the "consensus", like Neven's T-cell defense and low IFR view and it is on each and every one of us to decide if we find merit in those views)

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3267
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8332 on: August 14, 2020, 10:11:04 AM »

Members who don't understand this, who don't understand how the Internet works, and clutch their pearls and walk off indignantly when Neven says a minor virus doesn't deserve this amount of hype, are not valued. They need to stop putting me on a pedestal and extrapolating my work on Arctic sea ice to all my other opinions. I'm just some idiot.


The only reason why the things you say matter more than the things anybody else says is that you have a MOD tag and Mod power which you will use or treathen to use to win discussions. You are an authority here and authorities have real power. They walk away not because Neven offends them but because the MOD of this discussion has abandoned common good behaviour in favor of Trump like propaganda and argumentation.

It is an unwinnable battle because you can just delete, ban or demote those who oppose you. Thats how the internet works.

Kassy your job as a moderator was to moderate out bad behaviour, including Neven's. You are instead helping him and validating him. Soon he will be left only with those he agrees with, and then there will be nothing to learn for him. ASIF becomes a mirror that tells Neven exactly what he wants to hear.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 10:41:07 AM by Archimid »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

northsylvania

  • New ice
  • Posts: 9
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 136
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8333 on: August 14, 2020, 11:07:32 AM »
Quote
I think this entire thread is too toxic and should be shut down. All it is doing is making people fight with each other. No one is going to change anyone else’s mind. So it is not worth it to keep trying.
I would beg to disagree. I have found some reliable resources on here and some that deserved further investigation. I also think that people are entitled to opinions though I tend to skip them. If I wanted opinion, there are plenty of other places to get a good dose of confirmation bias. However, wading through arguments is a small price to pay for good data.
"Don't draw Peggy too shapely."

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7758
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1134
  • Likes Given: 526
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8334 on: August 14, 2020, 11:38:10 AM »
Kassy your job as a moderator was to moderate out bad behaviour, including Neven's. You are instead helping him and validating him. Soon he will be left only with those he agrees with, and then there will be nothing to learn for him. ASIF becomes a mirror that tells Neven exactly what he wants to hear.

If I'd wanted that, it would have happened a long time ago already.

Tell you what, I'll stop posting in this thread, and use the Lessons thread instead.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3267
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8335 on: August 14, 2020, 01:44:55 PM »
Quote
If I'd wanted that, it would have happened a long time ago already.

But you do want that. We all want to be right. Tremendous effort is done in science, philosophy and religion to remove the wants that becomes bias. Bias is real, we all have it and there is no cure. But there are treatments and way to minimize it to get to the best truth possible. Peer review, double blind testing and vigorous, honest discussions are all ways to do it. 

Quote
Tell you what, I'll stop posting in this thread, and use the Lessons thread instead.

But if you do that we lose the chance to engage in interesting discussions.

I say you hang up your mod responsibilities for a while and post whatever you like, under the same rules that we are all subject to. Then let the content of your posts do the talking. Your opinion is strong and different from the mainstream. This thread needs you, as much as it gets on my nerves. What this thread doesn't need is a moderator engaging in a propaganda campaign. It gives your words undue authority.

To Kassy, honestly, I think you are doing a good job ( herding cats), but I also think you are not moderating Neven fairly. He insults others needlesly. I can take the insults no prob, and candid discussion often lead to strong emotions, but many of the insulted posters have been perfectly civil.  Misinformation coming from a mod is amplified.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8336 on: August 14, 2020, 02:57:16 PM »
The other main thrust from Neven is his theory that a lot of the hysterical Covid publicity is part of some sort of Illuminati conspiracy.

In my own defence - and I wish had more time to reply to comments, especially the twisting and slandering - but the Illuminati conspiracy stuff is wrong. That's not what I'm pushing at all. What I always say, is that the number one goal of the current global system is to increase concentrated wealth. That's not because there's some occult cabal conspiring to do so, but because this is simply what happens when wealth reaches a certain size and level of concentration. It takes over, and then increasingly worse things happen, until it destroys itself and the cycle begins anew.

Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus.

Everything you wrote here, is either untrue or an exaggeration. Apparently, you are stuck in fighting-fascism-mode so much that just one small trigger is enough to convince you that you are dealing with 'The Enemy', and your reading comprehension goes down the drain. Or maybe you're just trolling to break this forum.

Either way, I thought that making you a moderator would make you less combative, authoritarian and annoying. Having to take on different roles can broaden one's horizon by empathizing with other perspectives, leading to further levels of understanding and wisdom. You, however, remain stuck in very simplistic and naive Us vs Them antagonisms, with no deeper analysis, wider overview or vision to speak of. Just the gut lashing out, a bit like a Trump supporter.

So, how about I revoke those moderator rights, and you can just be yourself, without having to take on a responsibility you're not cut our for?

Quote
All this shouldn't happen on a scientifically oriented forum. He drove away valued community members by doing so.

The only scientifically oriented part of this forum is the one about Arctic sea ice. That was the intended goal of this whole thing. It's the only thing that makes this forum valuable. The rest is BS that can be found all over the Internet.

Members who don't understand this, who don't understand how the Internet works, and clutch their pearls and walk off indignantly when Neven says a minor virus doesn't deserve this amount of hype, are not valued. They need to stop putting me on a pedestal and extrapolating my work on Arctic sea ice to all my other opinions. I'm just some idiot.

And if they can make an effort to actually understand what I'm trying to stay, instead of letting it get stuck in filters and projections, that'd be great. No need to twist my words so that it can be dismissed as nazi covidiot conspiracy stuff.

Your post is 100% correct. It is not the "Illuminati" but rather the tech oligarchs. They are now centralizing power and COVID is a massive grab in this regard. As the media has efficated the transition to a "fake world" we have seen the economy become dominated by FAANG, and this has only served to accelerate this transition.

How many people are now spending more time on FB or NFLX, and clicking more ads on GOOG, and buying all their products on AMZN, including AAPL phones, to spend more time on FB and NFLX? Each of these corps benefit in a specific way from the crisis, but tremendously so, especially when there is a coordinated effort by global central banks to pump $/Euros/Yen/Yuan into the economy, thereby devaluing the consumer EVERYWHERE while also simultaneously vastly increasing the wealth gap.

The hysterical posters ranting about dead old people are unwilling to face or live or deal with our actual reality and it is very unfortunate they are furthering the agenda of these megacorps at the expense of the Middle & Lower classes, but if politics is the act of advancing one's own self-interest, it is hardly surprising that megacorps have successfully misled and recruited billions of stooges (including many on this Forum) who unwittingly confuse and conflate the policies that benefit megacorps with those that would benefit themselves -- in fact, most of these followers are so unsuccessful at life in general, i.e., incapable of actual political practice, that their opinions are entirely moot. But there are so many of them that all the collective voices sound like they have authority........ it is a legitimate travesty.

PS: I am in the Hamptons this week. The beach is wonderful. Noone wears a mask on the beach. Masks are worn walking into restaurants but all the seating is outdoors and noone wears them sitting down. The mask policies here are inane / insane. We were waiting to pickup takeout and since we had walked and couldn't wait in our car, we had to wait by the side of the road, in heat, with masks on (?) despite the restaurant having tons of diners without masks in outdoor seating.

Similarly, one of my best friends flew from NYC to London the other week to meet her boyfriend, who had been in Spain (they had not seen each other since the crisis began). They had to quarantine in London for two weeks, but then were allowed out in the UK. Thereafter, she tried to fly to Spain, was denied, but was allowed to fly to Italy, and they are now going to Spain from there (she only has a US passport).

So, seriously, what the f*ck? The inconsistencies and absurdities in these situations alone illustrate how ridiculous this whole charade is. Is COVID real? Yes. Does it kill people? Certainly. Is the fatality rate higher than 1%? Most certainly not, especially not summertime, and it is concentrated almost ENTIRELY in the elderly and those who have neglected their own health. Shutting down the rest of society, which keeps these components alive on surplus labor in the best of times, is literally the opposite of how this disease should be fought, and is now looking increasingly stupid, and chaotic.

Quote
If I'd wanted that, it would have happened a long time ago already.

But you do want that. We all want to be right. Tremendous effort is done in science, philosophy and religion to remove the wants that becomes bias. Bias is real, we all have it and there is no cure. But there are treatments and way to minimize it to get to the best truth possible. Peer review, double blind testing and vigorous, honest discussions are all ways to do it. 

Quote
Tell you what, I'll stop posting in this thread, and use the Lessons thread instead.

But if you do that we lose the chance to engage in interesting discussions.

I say you hang up your mod responsibilities for a while and post whatever you like, under the same rules that we are all subject to. Then let the content of your posts do the talking. Your opinion is strong and different from the mainstream. This thread needs you, as much as it gets on my nerves. What this thread doesn't need is a moderator engaging in a propaganda campaign. It gives your words undue authority.

To Kassy, honestly, I think you are doing a good job ( herding cats), but I also think you are not moderating Neven fairly. He insults others needlesly. I can take the insults no prob, and candid discussion often lead to strong emotions, but many of the insulted posters have been perfectly civil.  Misinformation coming from a mod is amplified.
All you post is misinformation so this post is pretty rich.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 03:08:24 PM by bbr2315 »

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8337 on: August 14, 2020, 03:52:49 PM »
New York's CFR appears to be simply around 10%:  234K positive cases, and 23,610 deaths.

How is that 0.1% or 1%?  That's 10% death rate, no?

French figures indicate a 7% CFR.

Italy is 13% CFR.

One figure that also accurately defines this virus is the R0 value, which has been published by the CDC to be well north of 4.0, and the 95% CI of 3.8-8.9.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article


I am legitimately curious where posters are coming up with this 0.1%-1.0% CFR?   Can you please pass the peace pipe?
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 04:17:58 PM by harpy »

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1810
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 384
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8338 on: August 14, 2020, 04:34:33 PM »
New York's CFR appears to be simply around 10%:  234K positive cases, and 23,610 deaths.

How is that 0.1% or 1%?  That's 10% death rate, no?

French figures indicate a 7% CFR.

Italy is 13% CFR.

One figure that also accurately defines this virus is the R0 value, which has been published by the CDC to be well north of 4.0, and the 95% CI of 3.8-8.9.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article


I am legitimately curious where posters are coming up with this 0.1%-1.0% CFR?   Can you please pass the peace pipe?

It's about CFR vs IFR.  Case fatality rate is the rate of death of diagnosed persons.  Infection fatality rate is the rate of death of all those infected.  Since most infections are not diagnosed while the infection is happening, the IFR is much smaller than CFR.

IFR can only be assessed well with post-hoc antibody testing (assuming the antibody testing is sufficiently sensitive and specific).  It then captures more or less all those who were infected in the sample.  IFR = deaths divided by infections+deaths (from Covid). CFR = deaths divided by diagnosed persons.

We've gone into much discussion here, and estimates have varied quite a bit, but as a rough ballpark 1% or a bit less seems to be a fair IFR estimate for a typical Western population.

Older populations (e.g., Italy) can be expected to have a somewhat higher IFR, also those with high riates of obesity/hypertension/diabetes/etc.  Younger populations (e.g., India, prison populations) may be expected to have a lower IFR.  I do suspect that population Vit D levels may well have a role, with higher levels in some geographic belts (seasonally in some) and perhaps fish-eating nations.

IFR is important because, absent a vaccine, we can expect most of the world to be infected eventually.  IFR tells us the potential ultimate death toll.  CFR doesn't.

Human Habitat Index

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8339 on: August 14, 2020, 04:39:19 PM »
According to the Australian Government  Department of Health -

"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base. Available evidence mainly comes from symptomatic patients, and their clinical role in detecting asymptomatic carriers is unclear."

and

" The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-testing-australia-information-health-professionals

So the tests are dodgy
WTF

The inventor Kary Mullis, who received the Nobel Prize,  did say the PCR test is only useful qualitatively, not quantitatively.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 04:52:10 PM by Human Habitat Index »
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8340 on: August 14, 2020, 04:46:05 PM »
In theory, IFR is important, but it's an intangible figure because we do not have the technology to collect that data.

We have CFR, we have a high certainty that the CFR is accurate, at 5-10%.

IFR relies on inaccurate and simply unavailable antibody tests.

Until technology is invented with a 90% certainty and specificity for this particular coronavirus, discussions about IFR are...unreliable.


Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3267
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8341 on: August 14, 2020, 04:50:14 PM »
Quote
Since most infections are not diagnosed while the infection is happening,


It is important to note that if testing is very thorough CFR approaches IFR.

Positivity rate may give a good indication of how far the IFR is from the CFR. A positivity rate of < 1% may indicate that CFR and IFR are close. A high positivity rate may indicate the the IFR and the CFR are far.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1810
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 384
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8342 on: August 14, 2020, 05:08:08 PM »
In theory, IFR is important, but it's an intangible figure because we do not have the technology to collect that data.

We have CFR, we have a high certainty that the CFR is accurate, at 5-10%.

IFR relies on inaccurate and simply unavailable antibody tests.

I don't think this is entirely true.  Certainly, some antibody tests approved by the FDA for clinical use have proven to be absolute crap.  One of several critical FDA failings here.

But epidemiological research doesn't have to rely on FDA-approved clinical tests.  Research institutes have produced apparently highly sensitive and specific assays, available for research use only.

Unfortunately, in this situation, one cannot interpret study results of seroprevalence without checking what assay was used, and its performance characteristics.  This makes sensible interpretation of the various seroprevalence studies an exceptionally time-consuming process.

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8343 on: August 14, 2020, 05:10:40 PM »
Until we have a 90% reliable antibody test that is specific for this particular coronavirus, IFR is a distant intangible fantasy figure that we can only speculate on.

On the other hand, we have CFR from multiple Western countries in the 5-10% range.  This data is widely published and available.

...yet despite the available information I see discussions focusing on IFR, which is not widely published, reliable or available.



SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1810
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 384
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8344 on: August 14, 2020, 05:33:56 PM »
Until we have a 90% reliable antibody test that is specific for this particular coronavirus, IFR is a distant intangible fantasy figure that we can only speculate on.

On the other hand, we have CFR from multiple Western countries in the 5-10% range.  This data is widely published and available.

...yet despite the available information I see discussions focusing on IFR, which is not widely published, reliable or available.

Well, how about a study that uses an assay with 99% specificity and 83% sensitivity?  See:

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/30/2020.04.14.20062463.full.pdf

"The raw prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in our sample was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.1-2.0%). Test performance specificity in our data was 99.5% (95CI 99.2-99.7%) and sensitivity was 82.8% (95CI 76.0-88.4%). The unweighted prevalence adjusted for test performance characteristics was 1.2% (95CI 0.7-1.8%). After weighting for population demographics of Santa Clara County, the prevalence was 2.8% (95CI 1.3-4.7%), using bootstrap to estimate confidence bounds. These prevalence point estimates imply that 54,000 (95CI 25,000 to 91,000 using weighted prevalence; 23,000 with 95CI 14,000-35,000 using unweighted prevalence) people were infected in Santa Clara County by early April, many more than the approximately 1,000 confirmed cases at the time of the survey."

Taken at face value, this would suggest the CFR for Santa Clara County, in this specific time-frame is approximately 23 times the IFR.

Of course, this ratio would not remotely be fixed over time or place.  It would vary according to intensity of testing for acute infection, efficacy of treatment approaches, and perhaps seasonality, among other factors.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2392
  • Likes Given: 2044
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8345 on: August 14, 2020, 05:35:00 PM »
While IFR estimates have some uncertainties, they are very far from what you describe as "intangible fantasy figure". The general convergence towards "a bit less than 1%" has been quite reliable IMHO, with the added caveats Steve mentioned, and with some variability between populations.
And while there is no vaccine, and as some countries are on the fast path to herd immunity, IFR is much more important than CFR in determining the expected range of total deaths, which could and should serve to inform policy decisions.

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8346 on: August 14, 2020, 05:38:45 PM »
A comparison between coronavirus and influenza is quite frankly, asanine.

The CFR of influence is 5-10X lower than the CFR from coronavirus.

Moreover, influenza doesn't leave mildly affected people with brain complications, lung complications, etc..

Moreover, influenza's R0 value is considerably lower than the coronavirus.

Here's a basic outline of the comparison between coronavirus with a 5%-10%CFR and influenza with, a high end of a 2% CFR.

For those who are struggling with this concept of comparing apples to oranges, this JAMA peer-reviewed publication spells it out clearly, and conservatively.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121#:~:text=For%20this%20outbreak%2C%20the%20case,have%20been%20closer%20to%200.5%25.&text=A%20case%20fatality%20rate%20of,rate%20of%20adult%20seasonal%20influenza.

« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 05:44:14 PM by harpy »

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1810
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 384
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8347 on: August 14, 2020, 05:50:39 PM »
A comparison between coronavirus and influenza is quite frankly, asanine.

I agree with the assertion.  But I'm not sure who you're arguing with, or what statements.

It's true, the two viruses differ starkly in mortality and morbidity, as well as treatment and public health control measures. 

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 351
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8348 on: August 14, 2020, 07:14:16 PM »
So, seriously, what the f*ck? The inconsistencies and absurdities in these situations alone illustrate how ridiculous this whole charade is. Is COVID real? Yes. Does it kill people? Certainly. Is the fatality rate higher than 1%? Most certainly not, especially not summertime, and it is concentrated almost ENTIRELY in the elderly and those who have neglected their own health. Shutting down the rest of society, which keeps these components alive on surplus labor in the best of times, is literally the opposite of how this disease should be fought, and is now looking increasingly stupid, and chaotic.


Really? I do hope you enjoy your time in the Hamptons, BBR but I do hope I don’t have to live in the world that you seem to favour.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8349 on: August 14, 2020, 07:18:25 PM »
Until we have a 90% reliable antibody test that is specific for this particular coronavirus, IFR is a distant intangible fantasy figure that we can only speculate on.

On the other hand, we have CFR from multiple Western countries in the 5-10% range.  This data is widely published and available.

...yet despite the available information I see discussions focusing on IFR, which is not widely published, reliable or available.

To know the ice volume is an intangible fantasy, but that doesn’t mean that one settles with the tangible observable ice extent. I’m curious about volume which is the real indicator of ice loss (but requires modeling at the time)..

The CFR is a terribly misleading indicator. The IFR seems to vary with time and location, several sources place it around 1% for the first wave in mid latitude occidental countries but much lower in countries like India; race, eating habits, vitamin D levels, age distribution and others playing a big role. The IFR goes down as hospital treatment improves too. The IFR is something more related to reality of the illness than the CFR which means nothing to be honest.