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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 417494 times)

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8850 on: September 18, 2020, 03:25:41 PM »
One of the big concerns is if we have a heavy flu season on top of a heavy covid19 season. That could really stretch or break the ability of the medical community to cope.

It is almost sure that THERE WILL BE NO FLU this year. It is simple maths. Covid's R is cca 3, the flu: 1,6. To keep Covid's R anywhere near 1 you need to reduce contacts by 60-70%, so flu's R will be way below 1 with those restrictions.

It's long been my view, but now I actually found hard data for this:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

I agree with this. It’s difficult to catch even a cold nowadays.
So another WHO advice suspicious of BS, although in this case a pass has to be given. Anybody in risk groups should get the flu vaccine at least.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8851 on: September 18, 2020, 04:03:19 PM »
In my town of Minneapolis, no kids are going to school, few are physically going to universities, restaurants are mostly empty, if they are even open. Almost no one I know, except health care workers, are regularly going in to work. People are, though, as they should be, going to parks and other wide-open spaces more when they can.

And from what I hear, Mpls is not abnormal in this: A relative recently traveled through downtown DC and said it was eerily dead.


Chicago Metro Status...

Schools did not open, including colleges and universities. Restaurants are open and empty. Bars are closed. The expressways during rush hour are post apocalyptic with a few cars traveling over the speed limit when they would normally be bumper to bumper. My one hour commute takes 35 minutes. Meetings are all virtual. There is nothing that could be described as 'normal' but I suppose it could be considered eerily 'peaceful'.

Life in Sweden is comparatively normal. Schools are open, universities too, restaurants have customers. There are some restrictions (the maximum of 50 people in gatherings is limiting many events) and many people still work a lot from home. See this video from a shopping center in Gothenburg:

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8852 on: September 18, 2020, 04:20:07 PM »
One of the big concerns is if we have a heavy flu season on top of a heavy covid19 season. That could really stretch or break the ability of the medical community to cope.

It is almost sure that THERE WILL BE NO FLU this year. It is simple maths. Covid's R is cca 3, the flu: 1,6. To keep Covid's R anywhere near 1 you need to reduce contacts by 60-70%, so flu's R will be way below 1 with those restrictions.

It's long been my view, but now I actually found hard data for this:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

I agree with this. It’s difficult to catch even a cold nowadays.
So another WHO advice suspicious of BS, although in this case a pass has to be given. Anybody in risk groups should get the flu vaccine at least.

"The economist" is not hard data.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8853 on: September 18, 2020, 04:21:00 PM »
One of the big concerns is if we have a heavy flu season on top of a heavy covid19 season. That could really stretch or break the ability of the medical community to cope.

It is almost sure that THERE WILL BE NO FLU this year. It is simple maths. Covid's R is cca 3, the flu: 1,6. To keep Covid's R anywhere near 1 you need to reduce contacts by 60-70%, so flu's R will be way below 1 with those restrictions.

It's long been my view, but now I actually found hard data for this:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

Absolutely makes sense. It also suggests that the western world could take some pointers from Asia and make a habit out of wearing masks during flu season, COVID or no COVID.

Of course we would not want to interrupt the normal order of things.

"Old people die. It's what they do best. It is not avoidable." - Old Proverb circa 1050 AD
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 04:26:11 PM by Shared Humanity »

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8854 on: September 18, 2020, 04:30:40 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Oren - here you go, another poster post pointing out an erroneously low 0.1-0.2IFR.

I’m legitimately curious what posters like this would suggest because according to these incorrect numbers we’re at a relatively low risk.
I would suggest you lose weight and leave your computer and stop being a hysterical person. I know this sounds patronizing but you are losing your life so Bezos and the Sulzbergers can line their pockets.

The vaccines aren't safe. In fact for anyone under 65 or not obese they will probably be more dangerous than the virus.

I would also suggest getting a script for Descovy or Truvada. The Spanish study (71K HIV+ individuals) showed almost no deaths among those taking ^^ (altho Truvada is apparently more efficacious). These decrease risk by 40-60% for infection and mortality further. Supplement with Vitamin D and don't be obese, and you have a minimal chance of COVID-related hospitalization.

PS: more sunshine in Hamptons this week. I was out all day yesterday with no sunscreen (and I am naturally very pale) and only tanned, no burn. The CA smoke is screening out some of the light. Winter is most certainly coming.

Do you have any information at all that the non-existent vaccine is more dangerous than Covid????

As an aside.... I would dare you to walk around in Australia or New Zealand without sunscreen..... you would would be a crisp within 30 minutes.
That is not true, lol. I lived in Australia for several years. It is equivalent of late March sun angle currently in the NHEM, probably early-mid March if you include the smoke. You can be outside in Aus without sunscreen in wintertime or early spring / late autumn without sunscreen, although in summer you certainly cannot. The same is true in the NHEM....

Does this very conversation and "rebuttal" not illustrate the barriers people seemingly have to realizing the seasonality of mortality re: Vit D and sunshine in general pop?!?!

I actually meant during a time when people would want to walk around in the sun..... but you know the sun in this part of the world, it isnt like the NH at all.

As per rebuttal.... you said the vaccine was worse than the virus in spite of there being no approved vaccine.

Nobody is really disagreeing with Vit D being a good thing.

And it is looking like Covid will rise in winter and fall in summer for whatever reason.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8855 on: September 18, 2020, 04:40:50 PM »

"The economist" is not hard data.
re:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

Snort.  Just because they don't publish original epidemiological research doesn't mean that it isn't among the highest quality publications.

The link goes to a page of graphs looking at the Southern Hemisphere's 2020 flu season, in comparison to previous years.  It looks persuasive to me,  and it also makes biological sense, as I believe El Cid explained succinctly and persuasively.  They cite the data source for the graphs as "WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System."

So, are you suggesting that The Economist fabricated the source data?  Or that the WHO doesn't provide meaningful data on global influenza epidemiology?  What, exactly, is the supposed deficiency here?

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8856 on: September 18, 2020, 04:56:45 PM »
The economist is a political publication, just like any of the other news media.  It's just another newsrag. 

Either reference the original source, or a peer-review publication.

Referencing the WHO would have been more appropriate.

See:

https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/

nanning

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8857 on: September 18, 2020, 05:14:37 PM »
I see that in Italy and in the U.K., there is a U-shaped recovery of the virus.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8858 on: September 18, 2020, 05:16:15 PM »
The economist is a political publication, just like any of the other news media.  It's just another newsrag. 
About 30 years ago the Economist published an article on how the price to buy an unwanted girl child in rural China for the sex trade had gone up from USD 50 to 250 USD, due to improved living standards from "building socialism with capitalist tools".

The writer said this was A GOOD THING, as it proved increasing wealth in China was lifting all boats.

At which point I stopped reading the Economist and have never read it since.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8859 on: September 18, 2020, 05:31:39 PM »
UK demand for tests has 'gone through the roof'
Post at 9:54 on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-54201656/page/2

It seems enough pressure has been put on the government over the last week that they've actually released enough details to see what that demand was.

Capacity to test the general public reached about 80k/day early in May, which was meeting demand at that time (about 50k). It further expanded at the end of May early June to about 130k and flatlined until last week. It started ramping up a week ago (towards a target of 250k/day to be ready for winter by the beginning of October)

Demand was steady at 50k until the end of June, but when a lot of things reopened at the beginning of July, it ramped up fast, and was close to capacity (demand 110k capacity 120k) in mid-July before settling at a little under 100k for the rest of July.

However demand went up again in August, and its fairly clear there hasn't been enough capacity to meet demand since the beginning of August, and by the beginning of September efforts to squeeze every available test out of the capacity were severely impacting the usefulness of the results due to processing delays.

If the government hadn't been asleep at the wheel, there was a warning light that they didn't have enough capacity in mid-July, and it was obviously strained from the beginning of August. Even yesterday they were still denying what should have been obvious to them for over a month. They need what they thought they wouldn't need until December right now, and probably need to double what they had planned to have for December.

Contact tracing was never that good, but the extra delay in turning round the tests means its virtually useless for suppressing R now. Whatever it was doing in July it isn't doing now. Deaths aren't doubling every 8 days, but pretty much everything else is, and deaths started back up again a couple weeks ago.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8860 on: September 18, 2020, 05:35:54 PM »
The Economist is a liberal, pro-capitalist media (and BTW a very vocal proponent of the need to curb AGW, the need for clean energy, carbon-taxes, etc). So what?

We are talking about the number of flu cases here, which is hard data. And the Economist is definitely NOT fake-news media, they are very meticulous about their data sources.

Interestingly, harpy never had a problem with eg. vox's newssources, like usnews,cnbc,abcnews,usatoday to name just a few. I am 100% sure that the Economist's data-verification is way above those.

Anyway, I found this missing case of flu interesting and relevant to COVID.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8861 on: September 18, 2020, 05:39:10 PM »

...

Absolutely makes sense. It also suggests that the western world could take some pointers from Asia and make a habit out of wearing masks during flu season, COVID or no COVID.

Of course we would not want to interrupt the normal order of things.


Surprisingly, I agree.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8862 on: September 18, 2020, 07:58:12 PM »
Israel to Revert Back to Full Lockdown as Coronavirus Cases Climb
https://apnews.com/ff70d10700ebe2ed7becc3b2a9e08bc7

Israel will return to a full lockdown on Friday in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus as the number of cases has continued to increase for months throughout the country.

The three-week lockdown will begin at 2 p.m., closing many businesses and limiting public gatherings. The move comes just hours before the beginning of the Jewish High Holidays when people usually attend religious services and gather with family and friends.

With average new daily infections now above 5,000, Israeli officials have said they lifted restrictions too early.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Thursday that additional measures may be needed to prevent hospitals in the country from being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients.

... Israel has confirmed 175,256 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic and 1,169 fatalities. It is currently reporting around 5,000 cases per day, making it one of the highest infection rates per capita in the world, according to the AP.

------------------------------------

'Pandemic Fatigue' Leads to Resurgence of Coronavirus in Europe Where Cases Hit Fresh Records in France and Spain
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/18/pandemic-fatigue-leads-to-resurgence-of-coronavirus-in-europe-where-france-and-spain-hit-records.html

France and Spain are now seeing more new cases every day than they did when the virus originally peaked in the spring.

"We have a very serious situation unfolding before us," said WHO's regional director for Europe, Dr. Hans Kluge.

...  "What is really worrying I think for us is that we're not only seeing an increase in the case numbers, but we're seeing an increase in the hospitalizations. We're seeing increases in ICUs."

... More than half of European countries have reported a greater-than-10% increase in cases in the past two weeks. Of those countries, seven have seen newly reported cases increase more than twofold in the same period."

... Intensive care units in hospitals in some parts of France are now nearing capacity, WHO's Van Kerkhove said Friday, adding that hospitalizations are doubling roughly every eight days in the United Kingdom.

"We haven't even started to hit the flu season yet so we're worried that these increasing numbers of hospitalization and ICU are really going to overburden an already burdened system," she said.

... "[France and Spain] are the cautionary tale of what happens if you don't have a sustained public health effort. This is not like a rainy day or like a hot day. This is like climate change. This is a generational pandemic," Dr. Thomas Tsai, health policy researcher at Harvard University, said. "If we're not actively ensuring that we're controlling the pandemic, the epidemic is not going to just burn out on the road."

------------------------------------

New U.S. Cases Continue to Climb



-------------------------------------

'Largest Mass Fatality Incident' Ever in New York City
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/operations/downloads/pdf/mmr2020/ocme.pdf

NEW YORK CITY (WABC) -- The number of deaths reported to New York City's Office of the Chief Medical Examiner more than doubled in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic gripped the nation's largest city, according to a new report from the mayor's office.

"COVID-19 tragically represents the largest mass fatality incident in modern NYC history," the report said.

There were 65,712 deaths reported to OCME in 2020, compared to 30,964 a year earlier.

"The number of deaths reported to OCME increased, corresponding to the surge in NYC deaths during the pandemic," the report said.

The number of cremation requests jumped by 10,000 from 2019. OCME responded to 27,863 cremation requests, up from 17,148 last year.

"This increase came about during the months of March through June, where OCME received 16,115 requests, a number that approached the entire Fiscal 2019 total," the report said. "This increase corresponds to the surge in deaths NYC experienced during the pandemic to date."

-----------------------------------

Complete Command Probe into USS Theodore Roosevelt COVID-19 Outbreak
https://news.usni.org/2020/09/17/complete-command-probe-into-uss-theodore-roosevelt-covid-19-outbreak

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7212256/TR-Command-Investigation-with-Appendices.pdf
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8863 on: September 18, 2020, 08:05:42 PM »
On a positive note, we are experiencing a V Shaped recovery in the cremation industry.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8864 on: September 18, 2020, 08:18:20 PM »
Ruby Rhod: It's hot! Hot! HOT!
- 5th Element (1997)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8865 on: September 18, 2020, 09:00:08 PM »
I see that in Italy and in the U.K., there is a U-shaped recovery of the virus.

They failed to get the first place, Israel is going back in lockdown already. Who will be next ?

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8866 on: September 18, 2020, 11:37:33 PM »
I see that in Italy and in the U.K., there is a U-shaped recovery of the virus.

They failed to get the first place, Israel is going back in lockdown already. Who will be next ?
Madrid (Spain) enters in semi-lockdown. Some 37 areas In the region are lockdown disallowing enter/exit, public gatherings restricted to five people in general and shops and business schedules limited.

Thanks to the bitch we have as regional president who did nill during summer to prepare for this.

First lock down areas affect the south (“blue collar”) of Madrird
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 11:45:46 PM by gandul »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8867 on: September 19, 2020, 02:25:17 AM »
UK COVID-19 'R0' Rate Rises
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/global-coronavirus-cases-pass-30-million-live-news-200917235058708.html

The reproduction "R" rate of COVID-19 infections in the UK has risen to a range of 1.1-1.4 from last week's figure of 1.0-1.2, the government said.

"An R number between 1.1 and 1.4 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 14 other people," it said. It added that the number of new infections was growing by 2 percent to 7 percent every day.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8868 on: September 19, 2020, 02:49:31 PM »
UK COVID-19 'R0' Rate Rises
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/global-coronavirus-cases-pass-30-million-live-news-200917235058708.html

The reproduction "R" rate of COVID-19 infections in the UK has risen to a range of 1.1-1.4 from last week's figure of 1.0-1.2, the government said.

"An R number between 1.1 and 1.4 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 14 other people," it said. It added that the number of new infections was growing by 2 percent to 7 percent every day.

The government value of R is heavily biassed towards infection in the elderly. It uses death data which haven't been compatible with infection data in simple models since July due to the infection rate going in opposite directions in the over 70s and the under 30s. This change in R isn't actually due to a change in the average infection rate, which has been at about R=1.3 levels for about 6 weeks, its the young now being infected enough that cross generation infections have started to drive the infection of vulnerable people. This was obviously going to happen at some point, but now its happening its going to spike a whole lot faster than an R of 1.1-1.4 implies.

Yesterdays surveillance report for England shows 313 ARI incidents (which are almost entirely actual and suspected COVID outbreaks) in care homes in week 38. In week 37 it was 69. At R=1.4 this would be expected to double each week. Care homes get around 100k/day surveillance tests so these outbreaks are being caught before the infection has a chance to spread much inside the home, but infection was coming into care homes in week 38 at similar rates to March. Its like pulling one end of an elastic band while judging what is happening by the way the way the other end moves. The catchup when the slack runs out is a lot more rapid.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

There's some evidence of R dropping in week 38, but increasing delays in testing make it hard to judge before next week's report. If SAGE sticks by the death data and James sticks by the case data, James could be lambasting SAGE for having too high a value of R next month.

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/09/sage-versus-reality.html

James hasn't plotted what his model would show if he'd stuck to the death data rather than switching to the case data, but I think it would be pretty close to the SAGE line.

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8869 on: September 19, 2020, 05:13:24 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-wont-reach-everyone-for-four-years-serum-institute-2020-9?op=1&r=US&IR=T

There will not be enough doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to reach everyone worldwide until at least 2024, according to the CEO of the world's largest vaccine producer.

Pharmaceutical companies are not increasing production quickly enough to vaccinate everyone before 2024, Adar Poonawalla, CEO of the Serum Institute of India’s, told the Financial Times.

Poonawalla said that if the coronavirus vaccine requires two doses, the world will need 15 billion doses. "I have not heard of anyone coming even close to that right now," he said.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8870 on: September 19, 2020, 06:39:45 PM »
I fear things may imminently become catastrophic across the Northern Hemisphere.

The more I learn about COVID the greater the similarities seem with Dengue Fever. I was reading into treatment methods and how they are now targeted to inflammation and use steroids and this set me down the Dengue track again.

Dengue is very similar;

"Typical dengue is fatal in less than 1% of cases; however, dengue hemorrhagic fever is fatal in 2.5% of cases. If dengue hemorrhagic fever is not treated, mortality (death) rates can be as high as 20%-50%."

What does that sound like? COVID is so far fatal in less than 1% of cases. But what if there is an ADE response to secondary infection, and what if this is the real reason Spanish Flu was also similarly deadly among populations prone to its wrath (in that case, the young and robust).

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/obr.13128?fbclid=IwAR1pFpFTmL5ve4an7oIEvBMsxNyu6mlCqDYiJ1abaAyTPUNDvjZ3yRJAnBA

...

"Being an individual with obesity impairs the immune response to SARS‐CoV‐2"

"Influenza vaccination in adults with and without obesity results in equivalent influenza‐specific antibody titres at 30 days post vaccination, but antibody titres wane significantly more in adults with obesity compared with adults who are lean at 1 year post vaccination.163 Compared with influenza‐vaccinated lean adults, vaccinated adults with obesity have impaired CD4 and CD8 T cell production of key inflammatory cytokines IFN‐γ and granzyme B.151 Adults with obesity also have two times greater odds of influenza or influenza‐like illness despite a robust antibody response"

Now let's go back to Dengue....

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819989/

Hypothetically, obesity may affect the severity of dengue infection through the inflammation pathways. The increased deposition of white adipose tissue (WAT) in the overweight and obese individual leads to increase production of inflammatory mediators that were known to increase the capillary permeability and causes plasma leakage [25–27].

In 2013, Huy NT et al. published a systematic review and meta-analysis of 198 studies up to September 2010 on factors associated with dengue shock syndrome. In the sub-analysis of eight primary studies, the author found that obesity was no association between DSS and overweight or obesity [28]. Recently, in 2016, Trang et al. published a systematic review and meta-analysis of thirteen studies up to August 2013 on the association between nutritional status and dengue infection [29]. The meta-analysis of eight primary studies on overweight and obesity found no significant association between overweight/obese and DSS. However, the author failed to show substantial consistency regarding the relationship between studies and concluded that the effects of nutritional status on dengue outcomes were controversial. Similarly, both systematic reviews by Huy NT et al. and Trang et al. focused only on the association between nutritional status and dengue infection with studies up to August 2013.

"There were scarce and inconclusive shreds of evidence linking overweight and obesity with the severity of dengue infection [30, 31]. The number obese individuals susceptible to dengue will significantly increase with the increasing prevalence of obesity and increasing populations susceptible to dengue infection. With the hypothesized link between obesity and increasing plasma leakage, obese individuals may be at higher risk of developing severe dengue infection. Our review aims to summarize the current evidence on the association between obesity and severe dengue infection and to identify patients with high risk of severe infection. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review and meta-analysis on the association between obesity and dengue severity."


"We first pooled the odds ratio for all fifteen studies [10, 31, 36–48] evaluating the association between obesity and dengue severity. We found that dengue patients who were obese have 38 percent higher odds of developing a severe presentation of dengue infection compared to non-obese dengue patients (OR = 1.38; 95% CI:1.10,1.73; p = 0.01; I2 = 36.7%) (Fig 2). We found no significant heterogeneity between studies (p = 0.08). There was no statistical evidence of publication bias based on the funnel plot (Fig 3) and Egger’s Test (p = 0.06). In sensitivity analyses using meta-regression, there was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in obesity classification (p = 0.72), study quality (p = 0.84), nor study design (p = 0.67)."

Note that this study uses children who have a LOW risk of Dengue Hemmorhagic Fever and death - a study from Taiwan showed that mortality was also concentrated almost exclusively amongst the elderly (and also note Taiwan has LOW obesity, but the deaths were clustered amongst those with underlying illnesses and particularly hypertension).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4973177/

"An unprecedented dengue outbreak involving more than 15,000 infections, including 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases and 20 fatalities, occurred in Taiwan in 2014. The median age of the DHF cases was 71 years (range: 4–92 years) and most of them (N = 100, 73.5%) had comorbidities, of which the majority were hypertension (56%) and diabetes mellitus (DM; 27%). Only approximately half of the DHF cases (59/136) were classified as severe dengue, based on the 2009 WHO-revised dengue classification. The fatality rate for this DHF outbreak was 14.7%. DM (odds ratio [OR] = 3.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22–10.63) and presentation with severe plasma leakage (OR = 6.42, 95% CI = 1.76–23.63) were independent risk factors for fatality."


These things all sound like.... the exact same as COVID....

If this is the case, the impending explosion of initial infections AND re-infections is likely to result in a MUCH higher overall mortality rate. Areas that have already achieved herd immunity are unlikely to see similar spikes in overall deaths but those who are overweight or obese are still at risk of dying again and they are likely to see manageable spikes in deaths in these populations.

But there is some potential that the Spring wave could be the worst of all. Also, Dengue does not have a working vaccine, for the reason of ADE.... this would also imply the same for COVID.

Essentially, if you are elderly-unhealthy or obese, and you get COVID, the similarities with Dengue Fever mean that your chances of dying upon reinfection are hypothetically ~2.5X GREATER than on initial infection. Or something like 1/4 or higher.

So, we hypothetically have "COVID Hemmorhagic Fever" waiting in the wings as autumn approaches. It would have a mortality rate of approximately 25% in vulnerable populations if it does exist, and data suggests it is very plausible this is the case. While I don't think COVID Hemmhorhagic Fever is likely to be widespread, it means that cases in areas that do have herd immunity, though fewer in number, are likely to be deadlier. And areas that are suffering primary waves have the potential to see oscillating waves of the virus during the next six months, which means these areas probably have very high potential of widespread COVID Hemmorhagic Fever IF it does exist.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 06:44:55 PM by bbr2315 »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8871 on: September 19, 2020, 07:29:51 PM »
Yes, COVID is very similar to dengue. Both are caused by a virus. And that's it. Why not compare COVID to MERS which has a mortality of 30%? At least both are coronaviruses. Or the Marburg virus! The 2004 breakout had 90% CFR.

You flipped quite quickly from a dontworry-behappy-loseweight-andallwillbegood philosophy to 25% mortality

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8872 on: September 19, 2020, 08:19:48 PM »
Yes, COVID is very similar to dengue. Both are caused by a virus. And that's it. Why not compare COVID to MERS which has a mortality of 30%? At least both are coronaviruses. Or the Marburg virus! The 2004 breakout had 90% CFR.

You flipped quite quickly from a dontworry-behappy-loseweight-andallwillbegood philosophy to 25% mortality
I am not flipping here. I am saying that *IF* ADE does present in COVID, it appears that it will once again target the group most susceptible to initial infection, and history indicates this would yield a mortality rate amongst this group that is MUCH higher than that experienced during initial infection.

As I have a BMI of 21.0 and am at ~12% body fat / should be down to 9-10% within two to three more weeks, my tone re: my personal outlook has not changed. AND, as I specified, ADE is not guaranteed -- but I think history indicates it IS a possibility.

ADE in Dengue is only usually an issue in susceptible populations and the age distribution of its risks / deaths is very similar to COVID's presentation. So this would only amplify the differential between healthy and obese pops re: risk, and mandate that ALL POPULATIONS lose as much weight as possible or risk a much higher potential of death. If you are healthy and of normal weight and Vit D sufficient, it is as unlikely to be an issue as the initial COVID infection, which is lower than even flu for cohorts under 50ish.

morganism

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8873 on: September 19, 2020, 08:46:00 PM »
Researchers offer first proof that Ultraviolet C light with a 222 nm wavelength — which is safer to use around humans — effectively kills the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

https://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en/news/60119

"Other studies involving 222 nm UVC, also known as Far-UVC, have so far only looked at its potency in eradicating seasonal coronaviruses that are structurally similar to the SARS-CoV-2 but not on the COVID-19-causing virus itself. A nanometer is equivalent to one billionth of a meter.

An in vitro experiment by HU researchers showed that 99.7% of the SARS-CoV-2 viral culture was killed after a 30-second exposure to 222 nm UVC irradiation at 0.1 mW/cm2. The study is published in the American Journal of Infection Control.

Tests were conducted using Ushio’s Care222TM krypton-chloride excimer lamp. A 100 microliter solution containing the virus (ca. 5 × 106 TCID50/mL) was spread onto a 9-centimeter sterile polystyrene plate. The researchers allowed it to dry in a biosafety cabinet at room temperature before placing the Far-UVC lamp 24 centimeters above the surface of the plates.

222 nm vs 254 nm UVC

A wavelength of 222 nm UVC cannot penetrate the outer, non-living layer of the human eye and skin so it won’t cause harm to the living cells beneath. This makes it a safer but equally potent alternative to the more damaging 254 nm UVC germicidal lamps increasingly used in disinfecting healthcare facilities.

Since 254 nm UVC harms exposed human tissues, it can only be used to sanitize empty rooms. But 222 nm UVC can be a promising disinfection system for occupied public spaces including hospitals where nosocomial infections are a possibility."

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8874 on: September 19, 2020, 09:22:03 PM »

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8875 on: September 19, 2020, 09:23:28 PM »
And many are not even recoverd from covid in the first place. It looks like it takes many months for some people.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8876 on: September 19, 2020, 10:16:02 PM »
I am not flipping here. I am saying that *IF* ADE does present in COVID, it appears that it will once again target the group most susceptible to initial infection, and history indicates this would yield a mortality rate amongst this group that is MUCH higher than that experienced during initial infection.

Sorry, dont know what ADE is. But my BMI is also 21 so I should be OK :)

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8877 on: September 19, 2020, 10:54:59 PM »
I am not flipping here. I am saying that *IF* ADE does present in COVID, it appears that it will once again target the group most susceptible to initial infection, and history indicates this would yield a mortality rate amongst this group that is MUCH higher than that experienced during initial infection.

Sorry, dont know what ADE is. But my BMI is also 21 so I should be OK :)
ADE is antibody-dependent enhancement which is why Dengue Hemmhorhagic Fever occurs. Theoretically the same mechanism that results in the under 1% -> 2.5% mortality rate boost for those with Hemmhorhagic Fever vs primary Dengue infection is possibly going to result in the same for COVID.

There is actually some possibility this is also what worsened the outbreak in NYC and elsewhere, esp when hospitals were overwhelmed, as such an occurrence would theoretically make a one-two infection by sufficiently differentiated strains in a vulnerable person MUCH more likely in a crowded ward.

I do not believe this possibility has been mentioned or explored, but it is possible.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8878 on: September 19, 2020, 11:50:05 PM »
Quote
I do not believe this possibility has been mentioned or explored, but it is possible.
Chris Martenson went into this ADE theory back in the spring, so I know others have thought of it.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8879 on: September 19, 2020, 11:51:43 PM »
Quote
I do not believe this possibility has been mentioned or explored, but it is possible.
Chris Martenson went into this ADE theory back in the spring, so I know others have thought of it.
ADE has been explored but NOT whether this contributed to the mortality in NYC et al.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8880 on: September 20, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »
I have just read, in my browsing, once again that this is the "greatest health crisis in a century" or the worst epidemic of our lifetime. I have even read this a few times on this thread. Really?

Quote
Global situation and trends:: Since the beginning of the epidemic, 76 million people have been infected with the HIV virus and about 33 million people have died of HIV/AIDS. Globally, 38.0 million [31.6–44.5 million] people were living with HIV at the end of 2019. An estimated 0.7% [0.6-0.9%] of adults aged 15–49 years worldwide are living with HIV, although the burden of the epidemic continues to vary considerably between countries and regions. The WHO African region remains most severely affected, with nearly 1 in every 25 adults (3.7%) living with HIV and accounting for more than two-thirds of the people living with HIV worldwide.
https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8881 on: September 20, 2020, 12:23:47 PM »
AIDS was and is a terrible scourge (made worse, one might point out, by the Catholic Church's refusal to encourage condom use--at least they're not similarly pro-death by discouraging mask use during this pandemic...leave that particular pro-death move to the US Republicans).

But it took nearly 40 years for HIV infections to reach that death toll. There are already nearly a million official deaths from this in much less than a year.

But really, it's not a competition.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8882 on: September 20, 2020, 01:20:57 PM »
One of my brothers is in Marseilles. (He hates UK winters)
Just had a text message from him

Quote
Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold....
Trying Italy on Monday

My reply?
Quote
"No hiding place"

Italy data now showing increase in death rate...(though from a low value from 6 to 13).
UK data ditto by even greater acceleration. (death rate up from 7 to 19).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8883 on: September 20, 2020, 01:28:31 PM »
Netherlands is showing a spike, too. Is this a pan-Europe phenomenon?

Is no one taking their vitamin D? :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8884 on: September 20, 2020, 02:02:34 PM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8885 on: September 20, 2020, 02:26:01 PM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
Will Musk take it to Mars?
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8886 on: September 20, 2020, 06:10:15 PM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
It's a Northern Hemisphere problem.

It is also mostly why Melbourne's numbers are now plunging but of course they will credit the lockdowns as they did in NYC.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8887 on: September 20, 2020, 06:24:50 PM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
It's a Northern Hemisphere problem.

It is also mostly why Melbourne's numbers are now plunging but of course they will credit the lockdowns as they did in NYC.

Of course the lockdowns are to be credited.  A very small but rapidly expanding outbreak was tamped down successfully with public health measures.  Zero possibility of any herd immunity at play.  Impose the measures and the epidemic fades.  Relax them and cases spike.  How many examples from around the world are needed to demonstrate this basic dynamic?

And, of course, the Southern Hemisphere includes South America and South Africa.  So, it is pan-global, except for Antarctica.  For now.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8888 on: September 20, 2020, 06:33:35 PM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
It's a Northern Hemisphere problem.

It is also mostly why Melbourne's numbers are now plunging but of course they will credit the lockdowns as they did in NYC.

Of course the lockdowns are to be credited.  A very small but rapidly expanding outbreak was tamped down successfully with public health measures.  Zero possibility of any herd immunity at play.  Impose the measures and the epidemic fades.  Relax them and cases spike.  How many examples from around the world are needed to demonstrate this basic dynamic?

And, of course, the Southern Hemisphere includes South America and South Africa.  So, it is pan-global, except for Antarctica.  For now.
Argentina, Chile, Australia all failed. The lockdown was only successful bc it coincided with spring. And death rates are now plunging / cases are falling universally across SHEM. They are in late March equivalent NHEM sun angle (or early,-mid April since most SHEM areas are closer to equator than NHEM). This was when same thing happened in NHEM.

NZ has been in perpetual lockdown as well. No cases etc, but is it really a victory? It's not like people aren't dying regardless.....

I do not think the ends justified the means in these regions. But that is my opinion, and you know what they say about those. I do not think the vaccines will work, and I think that the ADE potential is actually real, and in fact, if it is, vaccines have the potential to kill as many or more than the virus itself.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8889 on: September 20, 2020, 08:17:42 PM »
We must eradicate it. We can eradicate it. Vaccines will help eradicate it, but they are not really needed if world leadership had the unity of purpose to eradicate.

It would be easier to eradicate it now than it was back in april, even with more daily cases. There are less vulnerable people. There are more immune people. Testing is now abundant and cheap. Contact tracing in many shapes and forms are in the works aor maturing. It will become easier to eradicate as vaccines become available.

The decision to not eradicate is based in the wrong premise that erradication is an impossible task. It isn't. It is easier now than it was 6 months ago because humanity is much better prepared to do it.

Lockdowns aren't even necesary if everyone makes an effort to keep their germs to themselves and people police each other. Winter might throw a big wrench on that tho.

But it can't be fake. Everyone and everywhere must distance, wash hand and mask if necesary. If we do this, it will be gone in 2-3 months. Eradicated. It will ocasionally emerge and contact tracers will stamp it down. Monitoring will have to be kept forever (est. 2032).

Threats like C19 and worse will keep emerging, the world must be ready to stamp it out wherever it emerges. It can be done for an incredibly small amount of money.
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8890 on: September 20, 2020, 08:44:16 PM »
We must eradicate it. We can eradicate it. Vaccines will help eradicate it, but they are not really needed if world leadership had the unity of purpose to eradicate.

It would be easier to eradicate it now than it was back in april, even with more daily cases. There are less vulnerable people. There are more immune people. Testing is now abundant and cheap. Contact tracing in many shapes and forms are in the works aor maturing. It will become easier to eradicate as vaccines become available.

The decision to not eradicate is based in the wrong premise that erradication is an impossible task. It isn't. It is easier now than it was 6 months ago because humanity is much better prepared to do it.

Lockdowns aren't even necesary if everyone makes an effort to keep their germs to themselves and people police each other. Winter might throw a big wrench on that tho.

But it can't be fake. Everyone and everywhere must distance, wash hand and mask if necesary. If we do this, it will be gone in 2-3 months. Eradicated. It will ocasionally emerge and contact tracers will stamp it down. Monitoring will have to be kept forever (est. 2032).

Threats like C19 and worse will keep emerging, the world must be ready to stamp it out wherever it emerges. It can be done for an incredibly small amount of money.

I think it's now much further spread than 6 months ago. And 6 months ago the winter was already over in the NH. Now it already starts to pick up before winter. It's hamster time.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8891 on: September 20, 2020, 08:54:13 PM »
We must eradicate it. We can eradicate it.

Wishful thinking. Millions will die this fall and winter. Winter is coming

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8892 on: September 20, 2020, 09:14:23 PM »
We must eradicate it. We can eradicate it.

Wishful thinking. 

It does not count as thinking. It is a reflex reaction.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 11:19:58 PM by pietkuip »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8893 on: September 20, 2020, 11:52:38 PM »
Eradication: theoretically possible. Yes, if everyone stood still for 3 weeks. Realistically impossible, not even worth discussing. Too widespread, too many people around the globe.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8894 on: September 20, 2020, 11:56:34 PM »
There are many countries that have proven what I say true.  Granted, winter makes everything a lot more difficult, but it's not winter yet. The next few months are months of high Vitamin D in both hemispheres. Many countries have cases mostly under control. There are glaring exceptions, but  even the exceptions can do it, specially with international cooperation.

This is not wishful thinking. Viruses are not magic. They follow laws of physics like everything else. Once you know their "algorithm" then avoiding it becomes a lot easier.  We know how to stop the virus during warm weather. The window to stop it is there but it is closing.

All that is requiered is the willpower to do it. Same as climate change.
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glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8895 on: September 21, 2020, 12:11:34 AM »
As Covid-19 is a cold virus, cold viruses usually give 12 months immunity which would mean covid-19 would be with us forever as it would take 4-5 years to vaccinate 7.8 Billion people, but Dr John Campbell pointed out in one video update recently with the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004 many had immunity 15 years later, although only 8096 cases were reported which is a very low sample for long-term immunity from a similar virus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOBNMkXy-lw&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2bdYHXGdwiUQVkfpOcEdJY4rsCCcAQhmttIc5aq0CUEu005VLsrS9oa98

This was on CNN today. Pfizer is stating that if the vaccine requires two doses to reach the necessary immunity level, we may not be able to have enough doses until 2024. This is with the assumption that most people would get vaccinated. I would say that only frontline healthcare workers and those at high risk would probably get vaccinated in this case. What are your thoughts?

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8896 on: September 21, 2020, 12:16:08 AM »
No Archimid. You need all countries to eradicate, at the same time. All parts of the population must participate in each country. It's a hard AND function. Wishful thinking, nothing more.
Climate change is actually easier. It requires cooperation by most people in the developed countries and a majority of people in the developing countries. You could eradicate climate change even with 50 uncooperative countries and with a billion people not participating in the effort. Still wishful thinking, but realistically much more possible.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8897 on: September 21, 2020, 12:50:45 AM »
As Covid-19 is a cold virus, cold viruses usually give 12 months immunity which would mean covid-19 would be with us forever as it would take 4-5 years to vaccinate 7.8 Billion people, but Dr John Campbell pointed out in one video update recently with the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004 many had immunity 15 years later, although only 8096 cases were reported which is a very low sample for long-term immunity from a similar virus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOBNMkXy-lw&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2bdYHXGdwiUQVkfpOcEdJY4rsCCcAQhmttIc5aq0CUEu005VLsrS9oa98

This was on CNN today. Pfizer is stating that if the vaccine requires two doses to reach the necessary immunity level, we may not be able to have enough doses until 2024. This is with the assumption that most people would get vaccinated. I would say that only frontline healthcare workers and those at high risk would probably get vaccinated in this case. What are your thoughts?
Covid 19 is not a cold virus, the fact that there are coronaviruses responsible of mild diseases with cold-like symptoms does not mean this virus shares their immunological characteristics. This probably be closer to SARS immunologically, but not sure there is a clear idea on how is going to be.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8898 on: September 21, 2020, 12:57:09 AM »
I have read from twitter that there’s a second volunteer in Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine tests with neurological problems post vaccination. Didn’t find any news source reliable of this, but it could be a real bummer if so.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8899 on: September 21, 2020, 01:21:15 AM »
I have read from twitter that there’s a second volunteer in Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine tests with neurological problems post vaccination. Didn’t find any news source reliable of this, but it could be a real bummer if so.

Thanks for the heads-up.  It seems there have indeed been two cases of transverse myelitis:

Human trials of Oxford vaccine on hold in the US over spinal-cord disease fears
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/human-trials-oxford-vaccine-hold-us-spinal-cord-disease-fears/

"Trials of the Oxford vaccine have been paused twice after two participants, both British women, sequentially developed transverse myelitis, an inflammation of the spinal cord that can cause paralysis.

The first pause, in July, was not publicly revealed and the trial was restarted after it was determined the volunteer had multiple sclerosis, a condition that can cause the same neurological reaction.

The second pause, widely reported two weeks ago, followed the second suspected case of the condition in a volunteer who is said to have been hospitalised but now recovered."
_____________________________________________________

More details at the link.  I find it peculiar indeed that there hasn't been more press coverage of this issue.