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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 381822 times)

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8900 on: September 21, 2020, 01:24:10 AM »

Covid 19 is not a cold virus, the fact that there are coronaviruses responsible of mild diseases with cold-like symptoms does not mean this virus shares their immunological characteristics. This probably be closer to SARS immunologically, but not sure there is a clear idea on how is going to be.

The difference might very well be that our immune systems have handled the endemic coronaviruses since we were toddlers.

In that case it would take scores of years before humanity would be affected in the same way as with the common-cold viruses. By then, civilization will be in big trouble because of the climate.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8901 on: September 21, 2020, 01:25:23 AM »
AstraZeneca, Under Fire for Vaccine Safety, Releases Trial Blueprints
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-safety-blueprints.html

Experts are concerned that the company has not been more forthcoming about two participants who became seriously ill after getting its experimental vaccine.

... experts noted that transverse myelitis is rare, diagnosed in only about one in 236,000 Americans a year. The trial in Britain involved only about 8,000 volunteers, a spokesman for the Oxford researchers said last month.

AstraZeneca revealed details of its large coronavirus vaccine trials on Saturday, the third in a wave of rare disclosures by drug companies under pressure to be more transparent about how they are testing products that are the world’s best hope for ending the pandemic.

Polls are finding Americans increasingly wary of accepting a coronavirus vaccine. And scientists inside and outside the government are worried that regulators, pressured by the president for results before Election Day on Nov. 3, might release an unproven or unsafe vaccine.

Experts have been particularly concerned about AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials, which began in April in Britain, because of the company’s refusal to provide details about serious neurological illnesses in two participants, both women, who received its experimental vaccine in Britain. Those cases spurred the company to halt its trials twice, the second time earlier this month. The studies have resumed in Britain, Brazil, India and South Africa, but are still on pause in the U.S. About 18,000 people worldwide have received AstraZeneca’s vaccine so far.

AstraZeneca’s 111-page trial blueprint, known as a protocol, states that its goal is a vaccine with 50 percent effectiveness — the same threshold that the Food and Drug Administration has set in its guidance for coronavirus vaccines. To determine with statistical confidence whether the company has met that target, there will have to be 150 people ill with confirmed coronavirus among participants who were vaccinated or received placebo shots..

... Dr. Topol said AstraZeneca’s plan, like those of Moderna and Pfizer, had a problematic feature: All count relatively mild cases of Covid-19 when measuring efficacy, which may hamper efforts to determine whether the vaccine prevents moderate or severe illness.

The company has released few details about the two cases of serious illness in its trial. The first participant received one dose of the vaccine before developing inflammation of the spinal cord, known as transverse myelitis, according to a participant information sheet for AstraZeneca’s vaccine from July. The condition can cause weakness in the arms and legs, paralysis, pain and bowel and bladder problems.

The case prompted a pause in AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials to allow for a safety review by independent experts. A company spokeswoman told the Times last week that the volunteer was later determined to have a previously undiagnosed case of multiple sclerosis, unrelated to the vaccine, and that the trial resumed shortly thereafter.

Transverse myelitis can sometimes be the first sign of multiple sclerosis, which involves more complex symptoms. But the myelitis alone can also occur after the body encounters an infectious agent like a virus

The company said it had not confirmed a diagnosis in the second case, a participant who got sick after the second dose of the vaccine. A person familiar with the situation who spoke with The Times on the condition of anonymity said the participant’s illness had been pinpointed as transverse myelitis. The trial was paused again on Sept. 6 after she fell ill.

“If there are two cases, then this starts to look like a dangerous pattern,” said Mark Slifka, a vaccine expert at Oregon Health and Science University. “If a third case of neurological disease pops up in the vaccine group, then this vaccine may be done.”

A participant information sheet dated Sept. 11 on AstraZeneca’s trial in Britain lumped the two volunteers’ cases together, stating the illnesses were “unlikely to be associated with the vaccine or there was insufficient evidence to say for certain that the illnesses were or were not related to the vaccine,” based on safety reviews. The next day, AstraZeneca announced that it had resumed the trial in Britain.

But the F.D.A. has so far not allowed the company to start up again in the United States.

A spokesman for the F.D.A. declined to comment. The National Institutes of Health said in a statement that it “remains to be seen” whether the onset of illness in trial participants was coincidental or tied to the vaccine, adding that “pausing to allow for further evaluation is consistent with standard practice.”

Dr. Mark Goldberger, an infectious disease expert at the Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership and a former F.D.A. official, said he found the rapid restarting of trials abroad to be “a little disturbing,” especially given the lack of details around the patients’ symptoms and the ambiguity around their connection to the vaccine. “Maybe this is the best they could do — it may not be possible to get more certainty at this time,” he said. “It is a question mark as to what’s going .

The company did not immediately inform the public about the neurological problems of either participant. Nor did it promptly alert the F.D.A. that it was again pausing its trials after the second U.K. volunteer developed illness and an independent safety board in the United States called for a temporary halt, according to multiple people familiar with the situation. The company’s chief executive told investors about the problems but did not discuss them publicly until the information was leaked and reported by STAT.

“The communication around it has been horrible and unacceptable,” said Dr. Peter Jay Hotez, a virologist with Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. “This is not how the American people should be hearing about this.”

Dr. Hotez also criticized obtuse statements released by government officials, including U.K. regulators who he said failed to supply a rationale for resuming their trials.

“Tell us why you came to that decision,” he said.

Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the F.D.A.’s advisory committee on vaccines, said that it’s unclear how the company — or the U.K. government — determined that the second case was not related to the vaccine.

Scientists want public confidence. The White House wants an October Surprise. The FDA wants to avoid looking political. Big Pharma wants a win. You’re in the middle.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-943-dimensional-chess-of-a-trustworthy-covid-19-vaccine/amp

AstraZeneca protocols
https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf

AstraZeneca internal report
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-trial-document/index.html

Drug companies basically never try to push back against getting expedient approval of their products, because they’re for-profit businesses trying to sell stuff. Yet here they’re trying to distance themselves from politically motivated, unsafe Emergency Use Authorizations from the FDA.

Policy experts sometimes describe the process of industries controlling the agencies that oversee them through lobbying or other influence peddling as “regulatory capture.” Now the pharma companies seem to be worried about the direct inverse of that—political capture by leadership up the line that could threaten the market standing of the companies, not to mention the lives of their customers.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8902 on: September 21, 2020, 01:29:31 AM »
Moderna Inc told Reuters on Thursday that the company could soon seek emergency authorization for a candidate vaccine that has nearly completed the enrollment of 30,000 in the last stage of clinical trials.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/moderna-expects-to-know-if-its-coronavirus-vaccine-works-by-november-ceo-says.html

Vaccines must demonstrate they are at least 50% more effective than a placebo to be considered for approval. Moderna said it would seek the emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration if its candidate proves to be at least 70% effective.

An independent safety board will take a first look at Moderna’s data as soon as a total of 53 people in the trial become infected with Covid-19, Reuters reported

“If the interim readout is deemed by the independent safety committee as positive with 70 or 80 or 90% efficacy, we will indeed consider approval,” Stéphane Bancel, Moderna’s chief executive officer, said in a telephone interview with Reuters.

“At such a level of efficacy, if we get there, we can protect a lot of lives in the people at the highest risk, and so, we will consider filing for an EUA for a very limited population [... President & sycophants?],” Bancel said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8903 on: September 21, 2020, 02:00:52 AM »
I am not taking the vaccine for a year+ after release, if at all.

Why do I need to be vaccinated for something that has is a lower risk to my age/weight/health cohort than seasonal influenza? I am supposed to take something some nincompoops made in a lab without actual safety trials in hopes of avoiding something that is most likely benign to my risk category?

This does not compute.

Ironically, or not, the group that most needs a vaccine -- the obese and elderly, but especially the obese -- are also the group hypothetically MOST at risk of needing either an absurd number of doses for efficacy, OR an ADE-reaction that actually kills them, with the risks of said response increasing with each sequential dose of vaccine. LOL.

Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis. I wonder if they push the vaccine on "high-risk" groups (specifically the obese). There is a not-small chance this ultimately results in mass deaths worse than the virus itself given the specifics of COVID and its similarities to Dengue which I outlined on the previous page and which does not have an effective vaccine for the same reason (ADE). Is it a guarantee? No. But precedence and lack of effective coronavirus vaccines to date, or vaccines for similar diseases, says it is likely.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 02:11:43 AM by bbr2315 »

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8904 on: September 21, 2020, 04:53:04 AM »
I am not taking the vaccine for a year+ after release, if at all.

Why do I need to be vaccinated for something that has is a lower risk to my age/weight/health cohort than seasonal influenza? I am supposed to take something some nincompoops made in a lab without actual safety trials in hopes of avoiding something that is most likely benign to my risk category?

This does not compute.

Ironically, or not, the group that most needs a vaccine -- the obese and elderly, but especially the obese -- are also the group hypothetically MOST at risk of needing either an absurd number of doses for efficacy, OR an ADE-reaction that actually kills them, with the risks of said response increasing with each sequential dose of vaccine. LOL.

Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis. I wonder if they push the vaccine on "high-risk" groups (specifically the obese). There is a not-small chance this ultimately results in mass deaths worse than the virus itself given the specifics of COVID and its similarities to Dengue which I outlined on the previous page and which does not have an effective vaccine for the same reason (ADE). Is it a guarantee? No. But precedence and lack of effective coronavirus vaccines to date, or vaccines for similar diseases, says it is likely.

A few points....

If a safe vaccine happens then as many people need to take it as possible... even you. The reason is because stopping Covid may not be an issue for you personally but for those who it is highly risk need people like you to have the vaccine to stop it reaching them.... it isnt just about you.

Do you have any research to support your opinion that Covid is more risky or even as risky for the obese than it is for the elderly?
Also, these people are not hypothetically more at risk, they are proven to be more at risk. Why do you think it is hypothetical?

No vaccine has been approved. So where are you getting the information that the vaccine is worse than Covid? Or is that just another opinion?

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8905 on: September 21, 2020, 05:26:43 AM »
I am not taking the vaccine for a year+ after release, if at all.

Why do I need to be vaccinated for something that has is a lower risk to my age/weight/health cohort than seasonal influenza? I am supposed to take something some nincompoops made in a lab without actual safety trials in hopes of avoiding something that is most likely benign to my risk category?

This does not compute.

Ironically, or not, the group that most needs a vaccine -- the obese and elderly, but especially the obese -- are also the group hypothetically MOST at risk of needing either an absurd number of doses for efficacy, OR an ADE-reaction that actually kills them, with the risks of said response increasing with each sequential dose of vaccine. LOL.

Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis. I wonder if they push the vaccine on "high-risk" groups (specifically the obese). There is a not-small chance this ultimately results in mass deaths worse than the virus itself given the specifics of COVID and its similarities to Dengue which I outlined on the previous page and which does not have an effective vaccine for the same reason (ADE). Is it a guarantee? No. But precedence and lack of effective coronavirus vaccines to date, or vaccines for similar diseases, says it is likely.

A few points....

If a safe vaccine happens then as many people need to take it as possible... even you. The reason is because stopping Covid may not be an issue for you personally but for those who it is highly risk need people like you to have the vaccine to stop it reaching them.... it isnt just about you.

Do you have any research to support your opinion that Covid is more risky or even as risky for the obese than it is for the elderly?
Also, these people are not hypothetically more at risk, they are proven to be more at risk. Why do you think it is hypothetical?

No vaccine has been approved. So where are you getting the information that the vaccine is worse than Covid? Or is that just another opinion?
OK, so you are basically a <Try adressing the argument instead of attacking people. kassy> saying I need to take something that BigPharma has cooked up because people cannot take care of themselves. I live alone. Yet "I need to take this" according to you, some rando on the other side of the planet who apparently knows my living situation.

Can you imagine if I cooked up something in a lab and stuck it in you? You are suggesting the same be done to me.

Western societies are now at the point where a substantial portion think that people who are not in any way vulnerable to a virus should be vaccinated with mystery vaccine to protect people whose vulnerability to the virus is largely of their own doing if they are under 65.

So now obesity is literally inflicting its pain on everyone else who isn't fat and you have <Try adressing the argument instead of attacking people. kassy> like Rodius who would assist this effort. Why have any healthy people anymore? What use would that be for bigpharma? LOL.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 01:58:59 PM by kassy »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8906 on: September 21, 2020, 06:17:01 AM »
It's all about the absolute number of cases. Right now, India has the lead plateauing at ~95k cases a day. The US was at around 75k back in July and it is now around 40k, without shutdown but with masking. This is even with a leader sabotaging the response. India's leadership could bring cases down significantly if they tried harder.

COVID 19 is not magic!

It can be controlled with determination and knowledge. Many countries have already proven it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8907 on: September 21, 2020, 07:48:27 AM »
Calling a poster a Nazi should generally be off limits here, imho.

Especially when they were only pointing out how vaccines actually do work
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Alexander555

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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8909 on: September 21, 2020, 08:53:33 AM »
Calling a poster a Nazi should generally be off limits here, imho.

Agreed

Quote
Especially when they were only pointing out how vaccines actually do work

Not quite. The vaccine may protect against disease (not with 100 % efficiency) but not against infection and then maybe not even against asymptomatic transmission.

Everyone should be free to decide. I will make my mind up when it is available.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8910 on: September 21, 2020, 08:56:19 AM »
India's leadership could bring cases down significantly if they tried harder.

Seasonal influenza hits most of India during the monsoon, ie. during June-September. The monsoon is about to end (quotes about this upthread). I believe we will see case numbers collapsing in India In October-November. If that will happen, that might be an indication that COVID19 is truly seasonal.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8911 on: September 21, 2020, 09:24:59 AM »
Quote
Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis.
Bbr, every time I think some of what you write makes sense, I read some idiocy like this.

Not to mention the Nazi name calling. I would say you should be ashamed, but I can't hope that this will actually happen.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8912 on: September 21, 2020, 09:47:12 AM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
It's a Northern Hemisphere problem.

It is also mostly why Melbourne's numbers are now plunging but of course they will credit the lockdowns as they did in NYC.

Of course the lockdowns are to be credited.  A very small but rapidly expanding outbreak was tamped down successfully with public health measures.  Zero possibility of any herd immunity at play.  Impose the measures and the epidemic fades.  Relax them and cases spike.  How many examples from around the world are needed to demonstrate this basic dynamic?

And, of course, the Southern Hemisphere includes South America and South Africa.  So, it is pan-global, except for Antarctica.  For now.
Argentina, Chile, Australia all failed. The lockdown was only successful bc it coincided with spring. And death rates are now plunging / cases are falling universally across SHEM. They are in late March equivalent NHEM sun angle (or early,-mid April since most SHEM areas are closer to equator than NHEM). This was when same thing happened in NHEM.

NZ has been in perpetual lockdown as well. No cases etc, but is it really a victory? It's not like people aren't dying regardless.....

I do not think the ends justified the means in these regions. But that is my opinion, and you know what they say about those. I do not think the vaccines will work, and I think that the ADE potential is actually real, and in fact, if it is, vaccines have the potential to kill as many or more than the virus itself.


Your logic is broken.

You say the lockdown only worked because it coincided with Spring.
The cold was still here while the lockdown was in place.... for six weeks pre Spring, and the case numbers were halted during winter.
It has only just started to warm up in the last week and the case numbers were dropping before it warmed up even a little.

The virus spreads between people, the weather or conditions help or hidden it obviously, but if nothing had been done to stop it, the virus would be running rampant right through to now and more with many more deaths regardless of the weather or season.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8913 on: September 21, 2020, 09:58:11 AM »
I am not taking the vaccine for a year+ after release, if at all.

Why do I need to be vaccinated for something that has is a lower risk to my age/weight/health cohort than seasonal influenza? I am supposed to take something some nincompoops made in a lab without actual safety trials in hopes of avoiding something that is most likely benign to my risk category?

This does not compute.

Ironically, or not, the group that most needs a vaccine -- the obese and elderly, but especially the obese -- are also the group hypothetically MOST at risk of needing either an absurd number of doses for efficacy, OR an ADE-reaction that actually kills them, with the risks of said response increasing with each sequential dose of vaccine. LOL.

Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis. I wonder if they push the vaccine on "high-risk" groups (specifically the obese). There is a not-small chance this ultimately results in mass deaths worse than the virus itself given the specifics of COVID and its similarities to Dengue which I outlined on the previous page and which does not have an effective vaccine for the same reason (ADE). Is it a guarantee? No. But precedence and lack of effective coronavirus vaccines to date, or vaccines for similar diseases, says it is likely.

A few points....

If a safe vaccine happens then as many people need to take it as possible... even you. The reason is because stopping Covid may not be an issue for you personally but for those who it is highly risk need people like you to have the vaccine to stop it reaching them.... it isnt just about you.

Do you have any research to support your opinion that Covid is more risky or even as risky for the obese than it is for the elderly?
Also, these people are not hypothetically more at risk, they are proven to be more at risk. Why do you think it is hypothetical?

No vaccine has been approved. So where are you getting the information that the vaccine is worse than Covid? Or is that just another opinion?
OK, so you are basically a Nazi saying I need to take something that BigPharma has cooked up because people cannot take care of themselves. I live alone. Yet "I need to take this" according to you, some rando on the other side of the planet who apparently knows my living situation.

Can you imagine if I cooked up something in a lab and stuck it in you? You are suggesting the same be done to me.

Western societies are now at the point where a substantial portion think that people who are not in any way vulnerable to a virus should be vaccinated with mystery vaccine to protect people whose vulnerability to the virus is largely of their own doing if they are under 65.

So now obesity is literally inflicting its pain on everyone else who isn't fat and you have Little Eichmanns like Rodius who would assist this effort. Why have any healthy people anymore? What use would that be for bigpharma? LOL.

Nazi???? WTF?

Firstly... you talk about vaccines being worse when there isnt even one yet.... you are purely speculating based on absolutely nothing at all.

I said that if a safe vaccine is available it is more beneficial for those who are high risk if as many people as possible take the vaccine.... that is how they work best. Measles is a great example of this and the measles outbreak in Samoa is the perfect example of a country that went lax with measles vaccines and the results of not doing it properly. People there decided it wasnt safe and those most at risk (babies and youth) died because of it.
Taking a vaccine that is safe is a social responsibility to care for others. Clearly this is not a concern for you.... so be it... but you are wrong.

BigPharma are not always evil. They develop many things that help many people. IF they make a vaccine that is developed properly and safely then that is a good thing. But if you want to only hate on BigPharma go for it... you would be wrong again though.

You are really going off track.
A well made, safe vaccine is good and most people need to have it for it to be truly effective. That includes you in your supposed bubble of isolation in fucking New York lol.

Maybe you should stop talking about a vaccine that is worse than Covid at some point given there isnt a vaccine for Covid... yet you keep harping on about it.
You rant on about obese people having more risk than the aged yet produce zero evidence... just another opinion you have based on nothing upfront. Show the evidence then lets talk.....

And seriously.... really stupid leap to Nazis.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8914 on: September 21, 2020, 01:00:51 PM »
So, a page after it is shown the vaccine now being deployed and "furthest along" is causing neurological problems, "there is no vaccine" anymore!

PS: I am not antivax, I have all my vaccines, vaccines are most definitely real. But the only effective vaccine against COVID is being thin. I have delved into ADE, why it is a legitimate risk, and why it is possibly so deadly re: COVID -- and how vaccines CAN TRIGGER antibody-dependent enhancement, which is why WE DO NOT HAVE A VACCINE for Dengue Fever.

These caveats and explanations are ignored by those critical, who would evidently have me try either the Chinese or the Russian vaccines, the former likely tested on those in concentration camps, the latter probably also used on political prisoners.

And somehow my use of "Nazi" is inappropriate when, these vaccines are mostly being tested on the unwilling, their testing is NOT scientifically sound or responsible, and people still think I should receive a jab with an unsafe cocktail developed in a lab, which could actually trigger ADE at a later date, and it should be mandatory!!!! This is actual fascism and Nazi-esque is most apropos.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8915 on: September 21, 2020, 01:15:59 PM »
bbr2315:
The Nazis deliberately murdered six million Jews and started a war which killed fifty million people.
We are trying to get a vaccine to a very serious novel pandemic.
While I have concerns about the haste that might be indulged in in this attempt, the two are not comparable.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8916 on: September 21, 2020, 01:51:57 PM »
bbr2315:
The Nazis deliberately murdered six million Jews and started a war which killed fifty million people.
We are trying to get a vaccine to a very serious novel pandemic.
While I have concerns about the haste that might be indulged in in this attempt, the two are not comparable.
The CCP designed COVID in a lab. The similarities to Dengue are unmistakable and undeniable. This is essentially weaponized, H2H Dengue Fever that escaped a controlled setting (in my opinion).

Whether it was intentional or not is irrelevant.

The CCP has killed millions of Uighurs. Has it been six yet? Does it really matter if it is ongoing? Does it need to hit six before it matters?

How about COVID? They've killed 2 million+ globally from that by this point. Should be 6+ within a month. Is that sufficient?

Or do we need to add a vaccine that causes ADE and potentially WORSENS mortality rates to the mix? How about mimicking the CCP's security restrictions and lockdowns on a global level, devastating small and local businesses that don't work with CCP conglomerates, and resulting in hundreds of K if not millions of additional deaths due to suicides?

IDK. These reasons make me think those saying "oh the Nazis were so much WORSE" really do not understand what 2020 has unveiled about the CCP.

RE: COVID -- I lived through what happened in NYC. I did not leave. I definitely could have. I made a conscious choice to stay here. My neighborhood was one of the least impacted mortality wise in the Five Boroughs but I nevertheless stayed inside for fifty days. The whine of sirens was constant and unending. Sometimes there were multiple. The news and the soundtrack outdoors made it legitimately sound as if the world as I knew it were coming to a complete, total, and permanent end. It was horrible. And by horrible, I mean it was one of the worst experiences of my life if not the worst.

We now have the actual data on surplus mortality for NYC which was 35K this past year vs. 2019. So we probably had about 30K of those deaths in a 45-day period in March-April? 1K a day for a month but more like a lot of days of 500-1,000 and a peak week or two of 1,000+++++ IMO.

The "great death-ing" of NYC was very real. I am very worried it is now encroaching for most other locations in the NHEM. The gist of my posts may sound hysterical and nonsensical but the reality is a vaccine isn't going to work (IMO, as I am now repeating ad nauseum and will stop, it can CAUSE an ADE reaction), and almost everyone else on this Forum is about to endure what I went through in March and April. It will be terrible.

And who is to blame? It's not the Nazis. It's the CCP. Unfortunately for our intents and purposes they are worse as they are contemporary to our existence and as proven by COVID and its release on the planet, are an existential threat to humanity.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8917 on: September 21, 2020, 01:55:35 PM »
Quote
The CCP designed COVID in a lab. 
More idiocy. Getting tired reading your rants.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8918 on: September 21, 2020, 01:56:44 PM »
Quote
The CCP designed COVID in a lab.
More idiocy. Getting tired reading your rants.
Sorry, modified* is more appropriate. Are you seriously discrediting the Wuhan Institute of Virology connection?

It is also UNCANNILY similar to Dengue. I am not saying it was an intentional release, I am saying, it somehow got out, intentional or unintentional, and the pathology and way COVID functions in the human body is..... sooooooo very similar to Dengue. It is uncanny. I don't think it is random.

Lyme Disease is likely a similar case although that was in the US. There is precedent, and precedent also indicates that if it did occur it will never be proven.

https://sites.newpaltz.edu/ticktalk/social-attitudes/story-by-smaranda-dumitru/


Quote
The reason some believe Lyme disease escaped Plum Island is because the island is located just a few miles off the coast of Lyme, Connecticut, which is where the first outbreak of Lyme was observed in 1975. While scientists say that all animals on the island are killed to prevent the possible spread of diseases, conspiracy theorists argue that birds regularly fly between the island and the mainland and thus are able to spread any diseases they may pick up.

“I don’t know if Lyme came from Plum Island,” said April Ferguson*, who is a chief strategy officer for a Hudson Valley policy-oriented think tank, “but it’s weird that no one wants to talk about it, doctors are scared to treat and diagnose it, [and] the government doesn’t talk about it.”

Ferguson started considering a link between Lyme disease and Plum Island after she saw a press release describing how the Centers for Disease Control were closing a Texas A & M University biodefense lab due to outbreaks of Brucella and Coxiella burnetii. Brucella and Coxiella burnetii are both tick-borne bacterial pathogens. This led Ferguson to wonder about Plum Island. Both the lab at Plum Island and the one at Texas A&M are Biosafety Level 3 labs and study similar infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease, avian influenza, and Rift Valley fever.

Ferguson  represents Lyme patients pro bono as an attorney. She considers the government’s attitude towards Lyme very strange. The number of cases jumped tenfold in one year, she pointed out, and insurance companies don’t cover antibiotics for Lyme, even though one can easily get antibiotics for any other condition. “Lyme disease is taboo and I don’t understand why,” she said.

Jennifer Reid who runs a Lyme Disease support group in Ridgefield, Connecticut, said that the connection between Lyme disease and Plum Island is an “interesting story.” It does not come up during her meetings, though. “People are focused on getting better. They are not looking for someone to blame,” Reid explained.  Reid blames climate change and deforestation for the influx of Lyme into suburban communities, including Lyme, Connecticut.

It is interesting to consider if this is the case, neither COVID nor Lyme is a "Captain Trips" equivalent, and both have unique properties that would allow them to escape a lab undetected. Lyme does have an initial rash but it does not show symptoms for months or years sometimes, and it also was tick-borne meaning it did not need a human vector to get out of Plum Island.

COVID transmits asymptomatically, and most often actually PRESENTS asymptomatically in the vast majority of people.

Both of these diseases fall into an area that evidently allows for easy transmission and low lethality, but more importantly, LOW VISIBLITY at the escape point.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 02:03:04 PM by bbr2315 »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8919 on: September 21, 2020, 02:04:35 PM »
Quote
Are you seriously discrediting the Wuhan Institute of Virology connection?
Yes. I'll take scientific consensus over your wild and always super-confident opinions any day of the week.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8920 on: September 21, 2020, 02:06:04 PM »
Quote
Are you seriously discrediting the Wuhan Institute of Virology connection?
Yes. I'll take scientific consensus over your wild and always super-confident opinions any day of the week.
Where is the scientific consensus on the origin of COVID you speak of? Please illuminate and source thoroughly.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8921 on: September 21, 2020, 02:11:55 PM »
There were many reports earlier this year proclaiming the virus natural. Since you make extraordinary claims, feel free to support them.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8922 on: September 21, 2020, 02:13:16 PM »
There were many reports earlier this year proclaiming the virus natural. Since you make extraordinary claims, feel free to support them.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/chinese-virologist-says-she-has-proof-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8923 on: September 21, 2020, 02:20:06 PM »
I edited out the insults from 8905. It was a simple argument for herd immunity.

There are simple counterarguments like the US making one without doing all the proper tests (would skip that one too if in same age group etc).

I totally don´t see the dengue analogy (no vector needed etc) and in general simple and testable ideas are preferred to more elaborate private theories.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8924 on: September 21, 2020, 02:28:25 PM »
I edited out the insults from 8905. It was a simple argument for herd immunity.

There are simple counterarguments like the US making one without doing all the proper tests (would skip that one too if in same age group etc).

I totally don´t see the dengue analogy (no vector needed etc) and in general simple and testable ideas are preferred to more elaborate private theories.
You are correct on all counts and I will do my best to be quiet for a bit. lol.  8)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8925 on: September 21, 2020, 02:33:58 PM »
There were many reports earlier this year proclaiming the virus natural. Since you make extraordinary claims, feel free to support them.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/chinese-virologist-says-she-has-proof-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/

Well, @BBR it looks like we can finally more or less agree on something.

I also am of the opinion that there's no way on this blue Earth that this virus mysteriously appeared in an open food market.  Truth is that it made such a good "story" that they knew the ignorantly masses would believe that story, but it's not realistic.

Was this virus actually synthesized in a lab?  Personally, I do not believe this is a "laboratory created virus", but could it have been modified?  That's certainly possible, but I do doubt that China has the sophistication to perform such a modification successfully.

Did this virus ORIGINATE in a lab.  IMO absolutely yes, it came from the lab in Wuhan China. 

That particular lab's speciality was studying bat coronaviruses, and several papers were published on the subject.  Horeshoe bats, I believe is the species name - or at least one of them, that the team in Wuhan was studying.

Did they make this virus artificially?  I don't think China is sophisticated enough to do that - they could barely manage to keep this virus safe within their lab to begin with, and I seriously doubt they have the capability to synthesize a novel virus on their own.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 02:39:39 PM by harpy »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8926 on: September 21, 2020, 02:35:46 PM »
There were many reports earlier this year proclaiming the virus natural. Since you make extraordinary claims, feel free to support them.
https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/chinese-virologist-says-she-has-proof-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/

Well, @BBR it looks like we can finally agree on something.

I also am of the opinion that there's no way on this blue Earth that this virus mysteriously appeared in an open food market, which didn't even sell bats to begin with. 

Anyone with a bit of common sense, and when referencing the bizarre events that took place in the Wuhan lab, would come to the same conclusion.

Was this virus actually synthesized in a lab?  Personally, I do not think so, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Did this virus ORIGINATE in a lab.  IMO absoultely yes, it came from the lab in Wuhan China.  Did they make this virus artificially?  I don't think China is sophisticated enough to do that - they could barely manage to keep this virus safe within their lab to begin with, and I seriously doubt they have the capability to synthesize a novel virus on their own.
I agree, you have worded this better than I did. I think it was a crude splice / experiment as you described and not a synth. Or something along those lines. And it probably escaped, and was not released. But that does not change the fact that it got out...

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8927 on: September 21, 2020, 02:41:08 PM »
Interestingly, there was a moratorium placed on the Laboratory in Wuhan China during the Obama administration to stop research modifying coronavirus genetic structure.  The Wuhan laboratory was specifically studying bat coronaviruses, see:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6563315/

and

https://www.pnas.org/content/102/39/14040



The current administration in the US lifted these restrictions... ;)

Gain-of-Function Research and the Relevance to Clinical Practice


https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/213/9/1364/2459266

Quote
There are also risks associated with GOF research, of which the clinical community will have to be acutely aware. As recent lapses at high-profile laboratories have illustrated, there remains the potential that bacterial and viral strains can escape even the most secure environments.

The role of dual-use gain-of-function research in SARS-CoV-2 origin

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Domina_Petric/publication/343627980_The_role_of_dual-use_gain-of-function_research_in_SARS-CoV-2_origin/links/5f34f555458515b7291bf5cf/The-role-of-dual-use-gain-of-function-research-in-SARS-CoV-2-origin.pdf

Quote
Unless the intermediate host
necessary for completing a natural
zoonotic jump is identified, the dual‐use
gain‐of‐function research practice of
viral serial passage should be considered
a viable route by which the novel
coronavirus arose.

The practice of serial
passage mimics a natural zoonotic jump,
and offers explanations for SARS‐CoV‐2's
distinctive spike‐protein region and its
unexpectedly high affinity for
angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE2),
as well as the notable polybasic furin
cleavage site within it.

The long‐standing practice of serial
passage is a form of gain‐of‐function
research that forces zoonosis between
species, and requires the same molecular
adaptations necessary for a natural
zoonotic jump to occur within a laboratory,
leaving the same genetic signatures behind
as a natural jump but occurring in a much
shorter period of time.


« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 03:13:29 PM by harpy »

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8928 on: September 21, 2020, 03:05:08 PM »
This is an interesting trial that started five months ago, but won’t have results until December
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04370782

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8929 on: September 21, 2020, 03:19:45 PM »
This is an interesting trial that started five months ago, but won’t have results until December
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04370782

I wouldn't hold my breath.  The regimen *does* need to be studied, but there are two treatment arms with no placebo arm.  Both treatment arms receive HCQ.   If it shows a difference between the doxy arm and the azithromycin arm, I'm not sure what meaningful conclusion one could draw.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8930 on: September 21, 2020, 03:22:16 PM »
A step away from amateur virology.
Or how the pro´s do it in NL.

The R* is back in the month (All months except June July and August have an R in their name in dutch. So it´s all the cold months. There is also a traditional proverb related to it but i can´t remember.) and that means colds and such. Which is inconvenient because that technically means you need to be tested.

Now if you are a parent this becomes much more complicated.

Young kids have colds all the time so until age 8 or so they can go to school. Their teachers see the problem. Actually there are two.

One. Kid has some seasonal bug that gets you. You stay put. You call the newly instated hotline for teacher and medical personal to find out it is already overloaded so it takes more then a day to make the appointment that way too just like for the regular testing.

Problem two: kid has corona. You won´t find out any quicker but the teacher misses at least a week of teaching.

Older kids do have to stay home when they have symptoms.

And then there are these variations life comes up with.

A kid comes into school with some symptoms of cold and a really fresh covid negative test.
Great come inside.

Now some other kids will get symptoms which need to be tested etc.

For some reason they did not think their scenarios out well enough. If everyone with symptoms isolated that would help so much but that was not the message.

Doing that would also mean that any kid with a runny nose stayed home (at least in the plus 9 group, maybe use another cut off age like 6 or so) but that might be a problem for the parents. 

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8931 on: September 21, 2020, 03:44:57 PM »

For some reason they did not think their scenarios out well enough. If everyone with symptoms isolated that would help so much but that was not the message.

Doing that would also mean that any kid with a runny nose stayed home (at least in the plus 9 group, maybe use another cut off age like 6 or so) but that might be a problem for the parents.

The biggest concern I have with regards to Children is the potential long term brain damage this virus can inflict on seemingly healthy individuals.  Similar, lung and heart complications.

The virus may not kill a child, but the long term complications from an infection are disconcerting, at best.

Is it really worth the risk?  Would it really be so bad to allow children to stay home from school for a couple of years, to avoid long term damage?
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 03:51:37 PM by harpy »

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8932 on: September 21, 2020, 04:25:11 PM »
bbr2315:
The Nazis deliberately murdered six million Jews and started a war which killed fifty million people.
We are trying to get a vaccine to a very serious novel pandemic.
While I have concerns about the haste that might be indulged in in this attempt, the two are not comparable.
The CCP designed COVID in a lab. The similarities to Dengue are unmistakable and undeniable. This is essentially weaponized, H2H Dengue Fever that escaped a controlled setting (in my opinion).

Whether it was intentional or not is irrelevant.

The CCP has killed millions of Uighurs. Has it been six yet? Does it really matter if it is ongoing? Does it need to hit six before it matters?

How about COVID? They've killed 2 million+ globally from that by this point. Should be 6+ within a month. Is that sufficient?

Or do we need to add a vaccine that causes ADE and potentially WORSENS mortality rates to the mix? How about mimicking the CCP's security restrictions and lockdowns on a global level, devastating small and local businesses that don't work with CCP conglomerates, and resulting in hundreds of K if not millions of additional deaths due to suicides?

IDK. These reasons make me think those saying "oh the Nazis were so much WORSE" really do not understand what 2020 has unveiled about the CCP.

RE: COVID -- I lived through what happened in NYC. I did not leave. I definitely could have. I made a conscious choice to stay here. My neighborhood was one of the least impacted mortality wise in the Five Boroughs but I nevertheless stayed inside for fifty days. The whine of sirens was constant and unending. Sometimes there were multiple. The news and the soundtrack outdoors made it legitimately sound as if the world as I knew it were coming to a complete, total, and permanent end. It was horrible. And by horrible, I mean it was one of the worst experiences of my life if not the worst.

We now have the actual data on surplus mortality for NYC which was 35K this past year vs. 2019. So we probably had about 30K of those deaths in a 45-day period in March-April? 1K a day for a month but more like a lot of days of 500-1,000 and a peak week or two of 1,000+++++ IMO.

The "great death-ing" of NYC was very real. I am very worried it is now encroaching for most other locations in the NHEM. The gist of my posts may sound hysterical and nonsensical but the reality is a vaccine isn't going to work (IMO, as I am now repeating ad nauseum and will stop, it can CAUSE an ADE reaction), and almost everyone else on this Forum is about to endure what I went through in March and April. It will be terrible.

And who is to blame? It's not the Nazis. It's the CCP. Unfortunately for our intents and purposes they are worse as they are contemporary to our existence and as proven by COVID and its release on the planet, are an existential threat to humanity.

Maybe you dont understand......

THERE IS NO VACCINE!!!!

There are trials to see if one can be released safely, but nothing has been approved.
Trials are used to find out if there are problems..... there are typically problems.... that is why most vaccines dont make it compared to the attempts to make them.
How do yo not understand this simple point?

When they do release a vaccine, it is a matter to determine whether it is legit or not. But since none has been approved, you cant say we have a vaccine.

You keep making a whole bunch of claims and opinions yet you rarely produce anything to support what you say.
And then you keep repeating it as if saying it repeatedly makes it true.

If you are going to rant on and spout out opinions please provide supporting evidence to back it up. And try to understand the difference between an approved vaccine and trial vaccines that are in the process of being approved.

And bringing up Nazi.... are you truly that ignorant and socially deaf?
You are derailing the entire thread with your rantings and unsupported opinions and then you get all high and mighty.

Seriously.... either put up or shut up.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8933 on: September 21, 2020, 04:31:16 PM »

For some reason they did not think their scenarios out well enough. If everyone with symptoms isolated that would help so much but that was not the message.

Doing that would also mean that any kid with a runny nose stayed home (at least in the plus 9 group, maybe use another cut off age like 6 or so) but that might be a problem for the parents.

The biggest concern I have with regards to Children is the potential long term brain damage this virus can inflict on seemingly healthy individuals.  Similar, lung and heart complications.

The virus may not kill a child, but the long term complications from an infection are disconcerting, at best.

Is it really worth the risk?  Would it really be so bad to allow children to stay home from school for a couple of years, to avoid long term damage?
Two years is way too long. One year is already a big loss.

But anyway this course started disastrously in Madrid. Virus will dictate how it goes...
Cases of quarantined classrooms are growing exponentially, obviously.
Unless curve starts to bend back by itself soon, this is a big disaster.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8934 on: September 21, 2020, 04:49:20 PM »
Stopped by to catch up on any new research on COVID that gets posted periodically.

Instead I find a huge pile of excrement which persons have been working furiously to build. The stink is quite impressive if overwhelming.

Carry on.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8935 on: September 21, 2020, 05:38:55 PM »
I share the feeling, SH...

---------------------------------

Wastewater Predicts COVID-19 Outbreaks Days Before Diagnostic Testing
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-wastewater-covid-outbreaks-days-diagnostic.html

By taking daily samples from the New Haven-area wastewater treatment plant, researchers have been able to track the progression of COVID-19 up to seven days before the same pattern is reported by compiled testing data from the New Haven metropolitan area.

Since March 19, the research team has been collecting samples from the wastewater treatment plant serving New Haven, East Haven, Hamden, and parts of Woodbridge, CT. The curve of the progression as seen in the samples is similar in shape to the number of confirmed cases reported by testing, but the SARS-CoV-2 concentrations lead the testing by approximately one week. Results of the ongoing project were published online Sept. 18 in Nature Biotechnology.



Jordan Peccia et al. Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater tracks community infection dynamics, Nature Biotechnology (2020).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0684-z
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

nanning

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8936 on: September 21, 2020, 05:54:48 PM »
SH, that's a good, and creative :), way of explaining my experience just now.

Netherlands has >2000 positives a day now, and rising from ca. 500 a day since 3 weeks. Contract tracing has mostly stopped because of not enough personnel.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8937 on: September 21, 2020, 06:06:03 PM »
SH, that's a good, and creative :), way of explaining my experience just now.

Netherlands has >2000 positives a day now, and rising from ca. 500 a day since 3 weeks. Contract tracing has mostly stopped because of not enough personnel.

Unfortunately, the issue with contract tracing is that global society seems to be hell bent on "getting back to normal".

Contact tracing works well under strict lock down measures, but with the mentality of trying to pretend "normal" has returned, results in making the job of tracers nearly impossible, especially with a virus that has an R0 value so remarkably high.

We remember last week the case of the wedding, where 7..now 8 people died who didn't even attend the wedding... ::)

https://wgme.com/news/local/eight-deaths-now-tied-to-millinocket-area-wedding-outbreak

Quote
An eighth person has now died from COVID-19 as part of an outbreak stemming from an Aug. 7 wedding in the Millinocket-area, even though none of those eight people attended the wedding themselves.

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8938 on: September 21, 2020, 06:08:59 PM »
Speaking of poo, I wonder if anyone is looking at marine mammals if our sewage carries Coronavirus out to sea?  Is the Coronavirus they find in sewage still viable? Maybe it’s a good thing the cruise ships are on the ways. I think they have to dump 3 miles offshore, outside state waters.
 Yes somebody is looking at marine mammals

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01795/full
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 06:14:08 PM by Bruce Steele »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8939 on: September 21, 2020, 06:34:55 PM »
Looks like coronaviruses survive for up to 2 weeks or so in wastewater if temps are not high.

Concentration and detection of SARS coronavirus in sewage from Xiao Tang Shan hospital and the 309th Hospital of the Chinese People's Liberation Army

https://iwaponline.com/wst/article-abstract/52/8/213/11065

Quote
In this study, we found that the virus can survive for 14 days in sewage at 4°C, 2 days at 20°C,


Survival of Coronaviruses in Water and Wastewater

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12560-008-9001-6

Quote
in tap water, coronaviruses are inactivated faster in water at 23°C (10 days) than in water at 4°C (>100 days). Coronaviruses die off rapidly in wastewater, with T99.9 values of between 2 and 4 days.]in tap water, coronaviruses are inactivated faster in water at 23°C (10 days) than in water at 4°C (>100 days). Coronaviruses die off rapidly in wastewater, with T99.9 values of between 2 and 4 days.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8940 on: September 21, 2020, 06:57:37 PM »
Belief In Conspiracy Theories Is a Barrier to Controlling Spread of COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-belief-conspiracy-theories-barrier-covid-.html

Belief in conspiracy theories about the coronavirus pandemic is not only persistent but also is associated with reluctance to accept a COVID-19 vaccine when one becomes available and to engage in behaviors such as mask-wearing that can prevent its spread, according to researchers at the Annenberg Public Policy Center.

In a new study, based on a two-wave national panel survey conducted in late March and mid-July, the researchers find that belief in conspiracy theories about the source and seriousness of the pandemic persisted across the four-month period. These beliefs in March were associated with increasing reluctance to adopt preventive behaviors in July, including actions such as mask-wearing and accepting a vaccine when one is available.

"Belief in pandemic conspiracy theories appears to be an obstacle to minimizing the spread of COVID-19," said Dan Romer, research director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania, who co-authored the study with APPC director Kathleen Hall Jamieson. "To control the pandemic we need high rates of mask-wearing, physical distancing, and hand-washing now—and of vaccination when a safe and effective vaccine is available."

The study was published today in the journal Social Science & Medicine.

Researchers assessed belief in three COVID-19 conspiracy theories in March and July among 840 U.S. adults on a survey panel and found that high proportions believed in them at both times:

- More than 1 in 4 people (28%) in March reported believing that the Chinese government created the coronavirus as a bioweapon, a proportion that increased to 37% in July;
- Nearly 1 in 4 (24%) believed in March that some in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC, are exaggerating the danger posed by the virus in order to damage Donald Trump's presidency, which increased to 32% in July;
- Nearly 1 in 7 (15%) believed that the pharma industry created the virus to increase sales of drugs and vaccines, which edged up to 17% in July.

Heavy use of conservative media or social media was associated with a greater likelihood that people would report believing in these theories. This study extends prior APPC studies which found that people who rely on social media were more likely to be misinformed about vaccines and that people who used conservative or social media at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic were more likely to believe conspiracy theories about it and to be misinformed about how to prevent the virus.

... The researchers found that belief in conspiracy theories was inversely related to the perceived threat of the pandemic; taking of preventive actions, including wearing a face mask; and the intention to be vaccinated when there is a COVID-19 vaccine.

- In March, those who did not believe the conspiracies were 2.2 times more likely to intend to be vaccinated than those who most strongly believed in the conspiracies—a ratio that had widened to 3.5 times in July:

- In March, 37% of people who most strongly believed in these three conspiracy theories reported that they intended to be vaccinated, compared with 81% of the people who did not believe in them.
- By July, the vaccination intention rates were 22% for those who most strongly believed in these conspiracies and 76% for those who did not believe in them.

Daniel Romer et al, Conspiracy theories as barriers to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., Social Science & Medicine (2020)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027795362030575X
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8941 on: September 21, 2020, 07:02:39 PM »
UK considering new national lockdown as Covid-19 cases ‘doubling each week’
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/uk-considering-new-national-lockdown-as-covid-19-cases-doubling-each-week/story-foe2BYkTDqeWKNAcC8ItYM.html
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Senior health official projects 50,000 cases per day in mid-October and more than 200 daily deaths by mid-November.

More restrictions expected in Europe as coronavirus spreads rapidly and rattles markets
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/europe-coronavirus-latest-more-restrictions-likely-in-the-coming-days.html
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France reported 10,569 new cases Sunday while the U.K., reported almost 4,000 new cases. Italy saw close to 1,000 new infections and Germany reported 1,345 new cases Sunday, and a further 922 cases Monday.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8942 on: September 21, 2020, 07:15:20 PM »
UK considering new national lockdown as Covid-19 cases ‘doubling each week’
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/uk-considering-new-national-lockdown-as-covid-19-cases-doubling-each-week/story-foe2BYkTDqeWKNAcC8ItYM.html
Quote
Senior health official projects 50,000 cases per day in mid-October and more than 200 daily deaths by mid-November.

More restrictions expected in Europe as coronavirus spreads rapidly and rattles markets
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/europe-coronavirus-latest-more-restrictions-likely-in-the-coming-days.html
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France reported 10,569 new cases Sunday while the U.K., reported almost 4,000 new cases. Italy saw close to 1,000 new infections and Germany reported 1,345 new cases Sunday, and a further 922 cases Monday.

That wise proverb, attributed to a monk circa 1050 at the Monte Cassino monastery in Italy, sounds best in the original Latin.

Et senioribus moriar. Est enim maxime isti faciunt. Quod vitare non potes.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8943 on: September 21, 2020, 08:50:37 PM »
That wise proverb, attributed to a monk circa 1050 at the Monte Cassino monastery in Italy, sounds best in the original Latin.

Et senioribus moriar. Est enim maxime isti faciunt. Quod vitare non potes.
I cannot really parse that.

Seneca said: "Morieris: stultum est timere, quod vitare non possis."

Or was that Publilius Syrus?

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8944 on: September 21, 2020, 09:04:35 PM »
Belief In Conspiracy Theories Is a Barrier to Controlling Spread of COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-belief-conspiracy-theories-barrier-covid-.html


This paper peer-review published the fact that Trump famously stated the virus is no more serious than the flu.  Also accurately points out the conspiracy theorists who bark low lethality figures, and lack of seriousness.


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On March 9th, one member of Congress ridiculed the idea that drastic measures were needed by wearing a gas mask to a vote to approve emergency funding for the pandemic (Cummings, 2020). The President also famously stated that the pandemic would be less harmful than the seasonal flu (Montanaro, 2020). At the same time, several popular conservative media hosts and commentators expressed doubts about COVID-19's seriousness and lethality (Jamieson and Albarracín, 2020; Motta et al., 2020).


Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8945 on: September 21, 2020, 11:12:15 PM »

For some reason they did not think their scenarios out well enough. If everyone with symptoms isolated that would help so much but that was not the message.

Doing that would also mean that any kid with a runny nose stayed home (at least in the plus 9 group, maybe use another cut off age like 6 or so) but that might be a problem for the parents.

The biggest concern I have with regards to Children is the potential long term brain damage this virus can inflict on seemingly healthy individuals.  Similar, lung and heart complications.

The virus may not kill a child, but the long term complications from an infection are disconcerting, at best.

Sweden has paid parental leave to take care of kids. The number of days that parents used this possibility was up by a staggering 50% in April. Statistics show that parents were home tending their sick kids a total of 2.1 million days in April.

Note that Sweden never closed any schools, yet there are almost no cases of severe illness among school kids (age 0-16). 0,4% of confirmed cases have ended up in ICU. The confirmed cases are a small fraction of total infections. About 20% of antibody tests are positive for <20 year olds. Zero deaths.

The long term brain damage must be a very rare complication because there seem to be zero cases here. Is there a source for that or is it just the usual fear mongering that has taken over this thread?

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Is it really worth the risk?  Would it really be so bad to allow children to stay home from school for a couple of years, to avoid long term damage?

This is a joke right?

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8946 on: September 21, 2020, 11:56:50 PM »
Quote
About 20% of antibody tests are positive for <20 year olds.

Source?

I expect no more than 5%.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8947 on: September 22, 2020, 03:37:37 AM »
CDC Publishes — Then Withdraws — Guidance On Aerosol Spread Of Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/21/915351325/cdc-publishes-then-withdraws-guidance-on-aerosol-spread-of-coronavirus

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted guidance Friday evening saying that aerosol transmission might be one of the "most common" ways the coronavirus is spreading — and then took the guidance down on Monday.

The now-deleted updates were notable because so far the CDC has stopped short of saying that the virus is airborne.

Over the weekend, the CDC page "How COVID-19 Spreads" included among the most common modes of transmission "respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols, produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, talks, or breathes."

It continued: "These particles can be inhaled into the nose, mouth, airways, and lungs and cause infection. This is thought to be the main way the virus spreads." The guidance also stated that these particles might travel farther than 6 feet.

For a few days, researchers who have suspected aerosol transmission for months cheered the update as a long-overdue acknowledgment of accumulating evidence for how the virus transmits, particularly in indoor spaces.

Now the page has reverted to what it said before — that the virus spreads between people in close contact through respiratory droplets. The page makes no mention of aerosol transmission.

... The posted and withdrawn transmission guidelines are just the latest in public reversals and controversy at the CDC. ... These episodes, among others, have raised questions about the agency's consistency and credibility during the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Howard Koh is a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health who served as assistant secretary for health during the Obama administration.

... "The consistent inconsistency in this administration's guidance on COVID-19 has severely compromised the nation's trust in our public health agencies," Koh said in a statement Monday.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8948 on: September 22, 2020, 08:24:31 AM »
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Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis.
Bbr, every time I think some of what you write makes sense, I read some idiocy like this.
<snip>
For some part, this quote of Bbr is right.
Pharma greatly improved life expectancy, and human health in general.
By its success, pharma became big pharma.
And now there's a new virus, spread all over the place, which endangers our somehow rather fragile society with a lot of vulnerable people. Look at the relatively modest fatality rates in the slums of Mumbai, where healthcare has never been that well available as in for example Northern Italy or New York, and you'll see that big pharma has indeed helped to create the current crisis.

So do I prefer that we would still be in conditions mankind was in around, say, 1850 ? No, not all. And I can't imagine even a healthy young man like bbr would do so.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8949 on: September 22, 2020, 09:42:17 AM »
Hi bruce .. all I've seen on viral testing in sewers has repeatedly reported nothing capable of infecting a host .
and Kassy .. where does the 'r' hide in Mai ?   b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...