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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 389050 times)

nanning

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8950 on: September 22, 2020, 10:13:48 AM »
<snippy>
So do I prefer that we would still be in conditions mankind was in around, say, 1850 ? No, not all. And I can't imagine even a healthy young man like bbr would do so.

I would actually prefer that Andre, and, if it had a voice, all of living nature would prefer it too. Nature must have been beautifully rich and diverse before industrialisation/pollution/population explosion. I know many 'downsides', but to me, that's life.
1650 would be better. Wait. Make it 0 so I can meet that interesting guy.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8951 on: September 22, 2020, 11:33:57 AM »
nanning, if you want interesting megafauna go back to about 50,000 BC.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8952 on: September 22, 2020, 12:22:59 PM »
CDC Spreads Confusion and Anger With a Stunning Covid Reversal
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/cdc-spreads-confusion-and-anger-with-a-stunning-covid-reversal
Quote
For months, the CDC said the new coronavirus is primarily transmitted between people in close contact through large droplets that land in the mouths or noses of people nearby. On Friday, however, it added that tiny particles known as aerosols could transmit the virus.  Then abruptly on Monday, the CDC reversed course and removed the additions. Much of the guidelines’ earlier description of Covid-19 transmission, emphasizing spread via large droplets, was restored.

The agency last week walked back a controversial recommendation that close contacts of Covid-19 patients don’t need to get tested if they don’t have symptoms.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8953 on: September 22, 2020, 01:46:47 PM »
Absolute madness, but criminally effective.

They already got away with a quarter million Americans deaths and if you think they are not going for a quarter million more you haven’t been paying attention.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8954 on: September 22, 2020, 03:06:18 PM »
Quote
Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis.
Bbr, every time I think some of what you write makes sense, I read some idiocy like this.
<snip>
For some part, this quote of Bbr is right.
Pharma greatly improved life expectancy, and human health in general.
By its success, pharma became big pharma.
And now there's a new virus, spread all over the place, which endangers our somehow rather fragile society with a lot of vulnerable people. Look at the relatively modest fatality rates in the slums of Mumbai, where healthcare has never been that well available as in for example Northern Italy or New York, and you'll see that big pharma has indeed helped to create the current crisis.

So do I prefer that we would still be in conditions mankind was in around, say, 1850 ? No, not all. And I can't imagine even a healthy young man like bbr would do so.
My point is not so much re: life expectancy as obesity et al which I believe are the largest drivers of mortality (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, ESP when correlated with age). Big pharma is intimately tied with the food industry etc.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8955 on: September 22, 2020, 03:14:26 PM »
Hi bruce .. all I've seen on viral testing in sewers has repeatedly reported nothing capable of infecting a host .
and Kassy .. where does the 'r' hide in Mai ?   b.c.

Oops. May belongs in the same list of sunny months.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8956 on: September 22, 2020, 03:22:45 PM »
That wise proverb, attributed to a monk circa 1050 at the Monte Cassino monastery in Italy, sounds best in the original Latin.

Et senioribus moriar. Est enim maxime isti faciunt. Quod vitare non potes.
I cannot really parse that.

Seneca said: "Morieris: stultum est timere, quod vitare non possis."

Or was that Publilius Syrus?

"The old die. For it is the most of all that they do. That you can not avoid."

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8957 on: September 22, 2020, 04:13:45 PM »
Well, so do the young.

In fact, the majority of human deaths in pre-industrialized society were a result from failed child-birth, and child hood diseases, such as polio, whooping cough, etc etc.

Tuberculosis was famous for wiping out large % of families.

Compared to that scenario, this current virus is relatively mild, but the long term effects, brain damage, lung and heart damage are severe enough to warrant lock-downs.

I previously posted numerous peer-review articles on the subject of brain damage, I won't re-post those studies again. 

Quote
Is there a source for that or is it just the usual fear mongering that has taken over this thread?

"Fear mongering" is exactly what the previous study on conspiracy theories attempted to parse out in more detail.

This is an extremely dangerous virus, and belief in conspiracy theories that this is not extremely dangerous, has ironically caused the situation to become even more severe than it already was.

See:   Belief in conspiracy theories is a barrier to controlling spread of COVID-19 https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-belief-conspiracy-theories-barrier-covid-.html
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 04:26:41 PM by harpy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8958 on: September 22, 2020, 06:30:17 PM »
Need a coronavirus test? You may have to wait, because the U.S. is experiencing a reagent supply shortage that’s “forcing health systems across the country to limit who gets tested for Covid-19, hindering efforts to ramp up testing as flu season approaches,” the Wall Street Journal reports this morning. And this shortage could persist for some time since flu tests rely on the same reagents.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-testing-is-hampered-by-shortages-of-critical-ingredient-11600772400?mod=hp_lead_pos10

-------------------------------------

The U.S. is incurring an extra 3,200 new infections daily because some universities returned to in-person learning this fall semester, the Wall Street Journal reports off a new study from researchers at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Indiana University, the University of Washington and Davidson College.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reopening-colleges-likely-fueled-covid-19-significantly-study-finds-11600776001?mod=hp_lead_pos4

---------------------------------

Nearly $1 billion in taxpayer money meant for masks and swabs went to make jet engine parts and body armor for the Pentagon, the Washington Post reported Monday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/22/covid-funds-pentagon/

What’s going on here: “The Cares Act, which Congress passed earlier this year, gave the Pentagon money to ‘prevent, prepare for, and respond to coronavirus,’” the Post reports. And “The $1 billion fund was allocated under the Defense Production Act, which allows President Trump to compel U.S. companies to manufacture products in the nation’s interest.”

Here are some of the ways the money was allocated: “$183 million to firms including Rolls-Royce and ArcelorMittal to maintain the shipbuilding industry; tens of millions of dollars for satellite, drone and space surveillance technology; $80 million to a Kansas aircraft parts business suffering from the Boeing 737 Max grounding and the global slowdown in air travel; and $2 million for a domestic manufacturer of Army dress uniform fabric.”

Said Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, in a statement: “We need to always remember that economic security and national security are very tightly interrelated and our industrial base is really the nexus of the two.” [... health, not so much]

https://gizmodo.com/pentagon-got-1-billion-to-fight-coronavirus-bought-dr-1845143131

----------------------------------------

Infowar curveball: A public relations official at the National Institutes of Health has been moonlighting as an anonymous editor (known as streiff) on the conservative website RedState. There, he’s “spent months trashing U.S. officials tasked with combating COVID-19, dubbing White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci a ‘mask nazi,’ and intimating that government officials responsible for the pandemic response should be executed,”

The official’s name: William B. Crews, and since the story broke, he has reportedly announced his retirement.

Why this matters: “it illustrates the extent to which the response to the pandemic has become deeply politicized, even within the agencies at the front lines of fighting it,” TDB’s Lachlan Markay writes.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/redstate-covid-troll-streiff-is-actually-bill-crews-and-he-actually-works-for-dr-anthony-fauci?ref=wrap

https://gizmodo.com/pro-trump-nih-goon-to-retire-after-being-outed-as-proli-1845134468

-------------------------------------

VP Pence’s new COVID-19 vaccine forecast: “by the end of April,” he tweeted Monday, “we will be able to deliver several hundreds of millions of doses straight to the American people.”

https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1308168624683847681

... first, that exceeds the US manufacturing capacity; and second, it would be unwise to allow people to self-inject a vaccine that they couldn't properly store, just sayin'

... your dose is 'in the mail' OBTW, we threw out the mail sorters so don't expect it any time soon.

... file under: 'fairy tale'
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 10:02:10 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8959 on: September 22, 2020, 08:27:27 PM »
COVID-19 re-infection by a phylogenetically distinct SARS-coronavirus-2 strain confirmed by whole genome sequencing

Link to PDF :
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1275/5897019

Quote
Epidemiological, clinical, serological and genomic analyses confirmed that the patient had re-infection instead of persistent viral shedding from first infection.... The confirmation of re-infection has several important implications. First, it is unlikely that herd immunity can eliminate SARS-CoV-2, although it is possible that subsequent infections may be milder than the first infection as for this patient. COVID-19 will likely continue to circulate in the human population as in the case of other human coronaviruses. ....Second, vaccines may not be able to provide lifelong protection against COVID-19.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 08:42:51 PM by harpy »

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8960 on: September 22, 2020, 08:51:31 PM »
There is an interesting read on reinfections from Nature, maybe has been posted before.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y
There are still many unknowns in this area

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8961 on: September 22, 2020, 09:01:31 PM »
Spain:
241 deaths today. To put it in context, deaths peaked at around 1000 in April. Spain pop 45 Million.
More than 10000 cases per day now, beyond April peak.
Madrid : 36% ICU occupied by Covid cases. Military camps and convention center-made-hospital reopening...

Freegrass

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8962 on: September 22, 2020, 09:27:32 PM »
Young people say; Let the virus run free! Create herd immunity, but protect the vulnerable...

Or in other words; Take away the freedom from the elders so that we - the young people - can enjoy the fruits of their labor in this moment of crisis...

What if we turn that around? Put all the young people together in a festival that will last for at least 3 weeks. I think a bungalow park would be very suitable for that. They have bars, swimming pools, a lot of green, bungalow for hygienics, and a lot of space to put up some tents and podia... (will be good for the suffering entertainment industry!)

Isolate the young people for the biggest party on earth. Let them get sick, and immune, so that the older generation can retain their freedom...

Just a Think...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8963 on: September 22, 2020, 09:44:55 PM »


VP Pence’s new COVID-19 vaccine forecast: “by the end of April,” he tweeted Monday, “we will be able to deliver several hundreds of millions of doses straight to the American people.”

https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1308168624683847681

... first, that exceeds the US manufacturing capacity; and second, it would be unwise to allow people to self-inject a vaccine that they couldn't properly store, just sayin'

... your dose is 'in the mail' OBTW, we threw out the mail sorters so don't expect it any time soon.

... file under: 'fairy tale'


Next April is a realistic, maybe even conservative target. Capacity is being built now, because the companies have pre-orders that fund it even if it turns out that they don't end up with a vaccine to produce. That's why there's a reasonable expectation of it being 2021 rather than 2022 which is what it would have been if the capacity only got built after the vaccine got approved. Its governments taking the risk of having paid for factories but getting no vaccine, because they really, really don't want to have to wait for the factories to be built if a vaccine is approved.

I don't know about the US companies, but AstraZeneca was working on capacity building in June.

I'm far from convinced there'll be a vaccine thats more than marginally effective, but if one of the leading candidates does well in its current trials and gets approval on schedule, April is realistic.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8964 on: September 23, 2020, 08:00:40 AM »
What if we turn that around? Put all the young people together in a festival that will last for at least 3 weeks....
My son came up with the same idea in April :)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8965 on: September 23, 2020, 09:56:04 AM »
^ 100 million possibly, but Pence was implying several hundred(s) of millions ( i.e. 200-300 million) which, given a double dose, implies 400-600 million doses. This is over and above the flu vaccine program ~ 200 million. Those doses require vials and syringes.

Syringe and vial manufacturers have an total annual capacity of ~ 850 million syringes, with ~ 500 million for routine non-vaccine hospital use.

They can brew enough vaccine; they just can't administer it.

... Not enough runway.

-----------------------------

Herd Immunity an Impractical Strategy, Study Finds
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-herd-immunity-impractical-strategy.html

Achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 is an impractical public health strategy, according to a new model developed by University of Georgia scientists. The study recently appeared in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

... "The herd immunity concept is tantalizing because it spells the end of the threat of COVID-19," said Toby Brett, a postdoctoral associate at the Odum School of Ecology and the study's lead author. "However, because this approach aims to avoid disease elimination, it would need a constant adjustment of lockdown measures to ensure enough—but not too many—people are being infected at a particular point in time. Because of these challenges, the herd immunity strategy is actually more like attempting to walk a barely visible tightrope."

... While recent studies have explored the impacts of both suppression and mitigation strategies in several countries, Brett and Rohani sought to determine if and how countries could achieve herd immunity without overburdening the health care system, and to define the control efforts that would be required to do so.



They developed an age-stratified disease transmission model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United Kingdom, with spread controlled by the self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and various levels of social distancing.

Their simulations found that in the absence of any control measures, the U.K. would experience as many as 410,000 deaths related to COVID-19, with 350,000 of those being from individuals aged 60-plus.

They found that using the suppression strategy, far fewer fatalities were predicted: 62,000 among individuals aged 60-plus and 43,000 among individuals under 60.


If self-isolation engagement is high (defined as at least 70% reduction in transmission), suppression can be achieved in two months regardless of social distancing measures, and potentially sooner should school, work and social gathering places close.



When examining strategies that seek to build herd immunity through mitigation, their model found that if social distancing is maintained at a fixed level, hospital capacity would need to greatly increase to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. To instead achieve herd immunity given currently available hospital resources, the U.K. would need to adjust levels of social distancing in real time to ensure that the number of sick individuals is equal to, but not beyond, hospital capacity. If the virus spreads too quickly, hospitals will be overwhelmed, but if it spreads too slowly, the epidemic will be suppressed without achieving herd immunity.

They cautioned that if immunity is not perfect, and there is a significant chance of reinfection, achieving herd immunity through widespread exposure is very unlikely.

Tobias S. Brett and Pejman Rohani, Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies, PNAS first published September 22, 2020
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/21/2008087117

-------------------------------------

Wisconsin Declares New Public Health Emergency After Surge in Coronavirus Cases Among Young People
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/22/us/wisconsin-masks-required-covid-trnd/index.html

Wisconsin will continue to require people to wear face masks indoors after the state saw a surge of new Covid-19 cases.

The order was issued by Gov. Tony Evers on Tuesday, coupled with the declaration of a public health emergency. The order is effective immediately, according to the governor's office, and is due to steeply rising cases, particularly among people between the ages of 18 and 24.

Wisconsin is experiencing "unprecedented, near-exponential growth" of the virus, according to the release, with the daily number of new cases rising from 678 at the end of August to 1,791 on Monday.

That increase has been driven in part by the unprecedented number of infections among 18- to 24-year-olds, who have a case rate five times higher than other age groups, the governor's office said.

The jump has occurred just in the last month, the release said, and six of the eight cities with the fastest rise tend to have University of Wisconsin System campuses.

... "We are seeing an alarming increase in cases across our state, especially on campus. We need folks to start taking this seriously, and young people especially -- please stay home as much as you are able, skip heading to the bars, and wear a mask whenever you go out. We need your help to stop the spread of this virus, and we all have to do this together."

Evers announcement came as coronavirus-related deaths in the US topped the 200,000 mark.

--------------------------------

Video: "It affects virtually nobody," Trump says of the coronavirus, which has now killed 200,000 Americans and counting

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1308209927274536961



------------------------------------

Cases grow in more than half of U.S. states, JHU data shows
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/coronavirus-cases-grow-in-more-than-half-of-us-states.html

As of Monday, new cases were growing by 5% or more, based on a weekly average to smooth out the reporting, in 29 states and Washington D.C., according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Nationwide, daily coronavirus cases have grown nearly 20% compared with a week ago, moving above 43,300 new cases on average.



-------------------------------------

White House Defends Hitting 200k Coronavirus Deaths: ‘We Were Expecting 2 Million’ ... so it's all good
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/white-house-coronavirus-death-rate-two-million-kayleigh-mcenany-b535170.html?amp

... The 2 million figure seemed picked out of thin air.

----------------------------------------

After 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths, the US Faces Another Rude Awakening
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/us-coronavirus-deaths-trump-autumn

... There is a Groundhog Day quality to the American experience of Covid-19. Back in March there was public outcry that, under Trump, protective gear to keep health workers safe was in critically short supply, testing for coronavirus was woefully inadequate and black Americans were dying in grotesquely disproportionate numbers.

Today, six months later, exactly the same laments can be heard. “There is a theme here,” said Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in San Diego. “Recreate the crime. We keep on doing it, over and over again." ...

« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 01:20:31 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8966 on: September 23, 2020, 09:56:51 AM »
Most People Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Develop Symptoms: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-people-infected-sars-cov-symptoms.html

While some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 infections never experience any symptoms, there remains disagreement about what proportion of total infections these cases represent. A new study published in the open-access journal PLOS Medicine by Diana Buitrago-Garcia at the University of Bern, Switzerland and colleagues suggests that true asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 comprise a minority of infections.

... To better understand the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and never develop any symptoms, as well as the proportion of people who are asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis but develop symptoms later, researchers systematically reviewed literature using a database of SARS-CoV-2 evidence between March and June, 2020.
 
Overall, in 79 studies in a range of different settings, 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17%–25%, prediction interval 3%–67%) of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection remained asymptomatic during follow-up, but biases in study designs limit the certainty of this estimate.

In seven studies of defined populations screened for SARS-CoV-2 and then followed, 31% (95% CI 26%–37%, prediction interval 24%–38%) remained asymptomatic.


Since each person infected with SARS-CoV-2 is initially asymptomatic, the proportion that will go on to develop symptoms is estimated to be around 80%, suggesting that presymptomatic transmission may significantly contribute to overall SARS CoV-2 epidemics.

According to the authors, "The findings of this systematic review of publications early in the pandemic suggests that most SARS-CoV-2 infections are not asymptomatic throughout the course of infection. The contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic infections to overall SARS-CoV-2 transmission means that combination prevention measures, with enhanced hand and respiratory hygiene, testing and tracing, and isolation strategies and social distancing, will continue to be needed.

Buitrago-Garcia D, Egli-Gany D, Counotte MJ, Hossmann S, Imeri H, Ipekci AM, et al., Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Med 17(9): e1003346. (2020)
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8967 on: September 23, 2020, 11:02:10 AM »
A scary part of this pandemic is the "long-haulers". It is almost scarier than the death toll. To think you may spend many months, perhaps the rest of your life, ill and disabled is nightmarish. Here is the plight of a man who was training to run the London Marathon in 2.5 hours who is now incapable of performing the simplest tasks of daily life. He used to run 90 km/week and now can barely take out the trash.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/426467/covid-19-s-long-shadow-the-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-just-isn-t-there
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8968 on: September 23, 2020, 12:24:44 PM »
A scary part of this pandemic is the "long-haulers". It is almost scarier than the death toll.

Also quite a few medical professionals have written about this, from experience. Paul Garner recently wrote an update: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/09/04/paul-garner-on-long-haul-covid-19-dont-try-and-dominate-this-virus-accommodate-it/

It is very unfortunate that there is little documentation of how common this is, how severe this is, how long it lasts. Most research is about the recovery of patients that had been hospitalized. But most longhaulers are people that often were not tested, did not seek medical help when they had covid, but then got a debilitating range of symptoms. I happen to know one of them IRL, and there are also internet acquaintances who are not getting well.

It is very important to find out how to treat this condition. Training may lead to overexertion and may make things worse.


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8969 on: September 23, 2020, 02:00:35 PM »
It is very important to find out how to treat this condition. Training may lead to overexertion and may make things worse.

So, running marathons may be a comorbidity?

(Puts down running shoes. Settles comfortably into couch.)

All kidding aside, there is a growing pile of research that shows that many recovered have damage to their kidneys, lungs and brain. This is a vascular disease and we are only beginning to understand it. My guess is that many of the recovered will have shorter lives as a result of being infected.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8970 on: September 23, 2020, 02:45:56 PM »
Young people say; Let the virus run free! Create herd immunity, but protect the vulnerable...

Or in other words; Take away the freedom from the elders so that we - the young people - can enjoy the fruits of their labor in this moment of crisis...

What if we turn that around? Put all the young people together in a festival that will last for at least 3 weeks. I think a bungalow park would be very suitable for that. They have bars, swimming pools, a lot of green, bungalow for hygienics, and a lot of space to put up some tents and podia... (will be good for the suffering entertainment industry!)

Isolate the young people for the biggest party on earth. Let them get sick, and immune, so that the older generation can retain their freedom...

Just a Think...
So, imprison all the young people so old people can walk around and be irresponsible, or make old people be accountable for their actions, i.e., make them WEAR MASKS or stay inside?

Young people have already been extremely penalized for existing during this crisis. While the elderly sit inside or wander about without masks, they are simultaneously draining the young of their prime working days and income via government programs / SS / etc.

Wait til the blowback for this becomes fully frothed. The young are not happy. We have been the ones penalized and attacked by governments globally due to COVID. We live in a gerontocracy.

I cannot tell if your post was in jest or not, because it really does not make sense given we did have strict lockdowns etc.... allegedly FOR the elderly and vulnerable et al. Of course now they are trying to keep lockdowns indefinitely bc "flu season can be bad" or whatever it is they are saying.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8971 on: September 23, 2020, 04:27:54 PM »
The Oct 2020 Scientific American has a cover story on Covid-19 and Sleep.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8972 on: September 23, 2020, 05:41:40 PM »
^ 100 million possibly, but Pence was implying several hundred(s) of millions ( i.e. 200-300 million) which, given a double dose, implies 400-600 million doses. This is over and above the flu vaccine program ~ 200 million. Those doses require vials and syringes.

Syringe and vial manufacturers have an total annual capacity of ~ 850 million syringes, with ~ 500 million for routine non-vaccine hospital use.

They can brew enough vaccine; they just can't administer it.


AstraZeneca was working on that in June. Not just the vaccine, and the supply chain for vaccine, but the supply chain for the delivery vehicle as well. Its entirely possible that the US companies are messing up and not working on the entire supply chain for their vaccine but 2021's capacity for vial and syringe capacity will be larger than 2019's, and if the rest of Big Pharma isn't completely incompetent, it'll be enough to deliver however many doses of their vaccine Pence has pre-ordered. These capacity constraints were obvious to the industry a long time ago, and they have made enough time and cash to deal with them by getting governments to fork out in advance for vaccines that may not pass their trials.

The NHS took 9 days to expand its ICU capacity for COVID by an order of magnitude in the face of the March epidemic. Capacities can change pretty fast when resource is thrown at them and 9 months is plenty of time to fix it when there's a government with a blank cheque wanting it fixed. The difficult part is getting a vaccine thats effective. Building up capacity to a timetable is a basic competence of these industries.

How fast can they do it? How much do you want to pay? 9 months isn't actually all that fast, they normally do it inside a year even if they aren't being paid to do it fast. 

The industry has the competence to deliver on that date, if it has contracted to do so. However part of that contract will be contingent on the vaccine being approved enough months in advance of April. Pence needs to be confident on when a vaccine will be approved to be confident of when it will be delivered. That might worry you.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8973 on: September 23, 2020, 06:36:45 PM »
With regards to a "vaccine", which is at best, as of right now, a ploy to try to get the stock markets higher for the day...and to try to instill optimism.

It's going to be, at best sort of like the flu shot, except for a virus that has been well documented to cause long term damage.



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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8975 on: September 23, 2020, 07:54:51 PM »
Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK - the data says to me - out of control

New cases doubled in 8 days from 3k to 6k,
Daily deaths double in 8 days from 12 to 25.

At this rate the 7 day daily new cases averages graph will need the #scale increased in a few days.

ITALY - still under control - just.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8977 on: September 23, 2020, 09:22:07 PM »
Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK - the data says to me - out of control

New cases doubled in 8 days from 3k to 6k,
Daily deaths double in 8 days from 12 to 25.



I make it seven days from 90 per week to 178 per week. I prefer to deal in weeks because of the very strong day of the week effects in UK death reporting and I think Wednesday is the best day on which to do the comparison. There's been plenty of signs in the last couple of weeks that deaths were likely to be on an 8-day doubling schedule any time now, and they are now there.

3 doublings from this week takes us to the 200/day SAGE are saying we'd get in mid-November without policy changes. Its actually picked up to that doubling a bit sooner and a bit faster than I'd thought, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it take 30 days rather than 24, but it looks like it needs rather more severe and prompt action to hold it under 100/day than the government is prepared to do and it'll be in NHS breaking territory by the end of October with Business at the current approximation to Usual. The NW region exceeds its first wave peak for hospital occupancy in 32 days if it sticks to the exponential its been on for the last 4 weeks.

Its getting to "guess the R" time of the week. 1.4-1.8 is my guess. Some are publicly saying its 2, but I think SAGE will need two weeks running where deaths double before they put 2 in their range.
If SAGE stick by their method and James sticks by his, he's going to be complaining they are too high in his next blog.
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/09/sage-versus-reality.html

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8978 on: September 24, 2020, 04:11:57 AM »
The number of deaths in the UK and Italy is about to go up fast.
Same thing happened in Melbourne.... first the cases skyrocket but not the deaths..... then two or three weeks later the deaths followed the same path.

We have also seen a significant drop in cases but deaths are still a little high, relatively speaking, but are only now dropping fast.

I hope I am wrong.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8979 on: September 24, 2020, 06:28:47 AM »
Houston Study: More Contagious Coronavirus Strain Now Dominates
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/09/23/coronavirus-may-have-mutated-to-become-more-contagious-study-finds/amp/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

(Reuters) - The first study to analyze the structure of the novel coronavirus from two waves of infection in a major city found that a more contagious strain dominates recent samples, researchers from Houston Methodist Hospital said on Wednesday.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.22.20199125v1

They examined more than 5,000 genomes from viruses recovered in the earliest phase of the pandemic in Houston, an ethnically diverse city of 7 million, and from an ongoing more recent wave of infections.

The genetic data show the virus arrived in Houston many separate times, presumably at first by air travel. Notably, 71 percent of the viruses that arrived initially were characterized by a now famous mutation, which appears to have first originated in China, that scientists increasingly suspect may give the virus a biological advantage in how it spreads. It is called D614G, referring to the substitution of an amino acid called aspartic acid (D) for one called glycine (G) in a region of the genome that encodes the spike protein.

By the second wave of the outbreak in Houston, the study found that this variant had leaped to 99.9 percent prevalence — completing its domination of the outbreak. The researchers found that people infected with the strain had higher loads of virus in their upper respiratory tracts, a potential factor in making the strain spread more effectively.

But they found little evidence that mutations in the virus have made it deadlier, noting that severity of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, was more strongly linked to patients' underlying medical conditions and genetics.

The study characterizes some of the spike protein mutations as “disconcerting.” While the paper does not present strong proof that any additional evolution of the spike protein is occurring, it suggests that these repeated substitutions provide a hint that, as the virus interacts with our bodies and our immune systems, it may be learning new tricks that help it respond to its host.

Researchers say the rise of this contagious strain of the virus may have driven up the infection rate in the Houston area, which jumped from an average of around 200 new Covid-19 cases per day to more than 2,400.

A similar study from earlier this month found evidence that the United Kingdom was also overtaken by the same virus strain over the spring.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.31.20166082v2
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8980 on: September 24, 2020, 08:14:55 AM »
Ok, so this is the great test of the seasonality theory of COVID. India is opening up just when the monsoon (Jun-Sep) season (the usual season for the flu there) ends:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buses-are-packed-as-are-shops-and-markets-indias-rising-covid-19-infections-are-rapidly-catching-up-with-the-us-2020-09-23?mod=mw_latestnews

If we see flat or lower case numbers In October and November despite the opening up then it is almost sure that COVID is seasonal.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8981 on: September 24, 2020, 09:31:42 AM »
<snip>
Isolate the young people for the biggest party on earth. Let them get sick, and immune, so that the older generation can retain their freedom...

We know that very likely immunity lasts only a couple of months. As with influenza.
So those youngsters will get infected again and will be (mostly presymptomaticly/asymptomaticly) contagious again.
The effects of repetitive infections with sars-cov-2 are still not known.

A party is always nice (Can I please join that party?) but it will not be effective.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8982 on: September 24, 2020, 09:53:25 AM »
We know that very likely immunity lasts only a couple of months.

That is all we need if such party is coupled with a real effort to contain the virus in all other segments of society. Once the virus is virtually erradicated, all that is left is testing like mad and contact tracing as hard as possible any lingering infections.

The biggest lie told about C19 is that it can't be erradicated. It can. But because people already gave up on erradication, erradication is not tried. Same with climate change. It can be solved, but because the tasks seems so daunting people assume it can't.

Edit: Important caveat. I will not be attending a party were 1 in 1000 people may die and 10-100 per 1000 will have lingering health effects and no permanent protection.

Edit2: A party is not the way to go. The dose received will be large increasing the chances of adverse effects. The way to go is an inoculation using the minimum viral load possible through the optimal route determined by lab experiments. It will still have a massive deathtoll but it will help to simply erradication.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 09:59:26 AM by Archimid »
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8983 on: September 24, 2020, 10:21:46 AM »
The biggest lie told about C19 is that it can't be erradicated. It can. But because people already gave up on erradication, erradication is not tried. Same with climate change. It can be solved, but because the tasks seems so daunting people assume it can't.
The Chinese have been working hard on eradication since January. Their methods include arresting anyone on the street without a permit, forbidding most travel, fixing iron bars across apartment block doors. Even then they haven't been 100% successful. Can you suggest any ways that eradication can happen in a democracy?
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8984 on: September 24, 2020, 11:06:19 AM »
Can you suggest any ways that eradication can happen in a democracy?

Absolutely. All you need is the "demos"  in democracy to be informed about the dangers and how to end them. Most people want to live long an healthy lives and will do what is necesary to accomplish so. A few weeks of sanitary dicipline is within reach of most people.

However, if the people are being systematically deceived, they will not react correctly to the threat. Instead of attempting to avoid disease their confused minds accept the disease with the hope that the confusion and pain this causes will go away. The misinformers even give them placebos like HCQ to encourage them to act againts their best interest.

Being blissfully deceived is not democracy. It is tyranny.
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8985 on: September 24, 2020, 11:16:00 AM »
Can you suggest any ways that eradication can happen in a democracy?

Absolutely. All you need is the "demos"  in democracy to be informed about the dangers and how to end them. Most people want to live long an healthy lives and will do what is necesary to accomplish so. A few weeks of sanitary dicipline is within reach of most people.

However, if the people are being systematically deceived, they will not react correctly to the threat. Instead of attempting to avoid disease their confused minds accept the disease with the hope that the confusion and pain this causes will go away. The misinformers even give them placebos like HCQ to encourage them to act againts their best interest.

Being blissfully deceived is not democracy. It is tyranny.
To make sure that everyone is fully and accurately informed at all times, you'd need to control the media - ALL of it, including twitter/facebook-type social media.

That might just work, but I don't think you've quite thought through the implications.

As Nietzsche said, "what is truth?". Who'll be in charge of deciding what messages to put out? Will anyone be permitted to argue with those messages? If so, you're back to where we are now. If not, you're probably talking armed insurrections, worldwide.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8986 on: September 24, 2020, 11:45:59 AM »
Quote
To make sure that everyone is fully and accurately informed at all times, you'd need to control the media - ALL of it, including twitter/facebook-type social media.

That is absurd. You don't need "everyone" to be "fully" and "accuratately" informed at "all" times.

All you need is a clear consice message that is as accurate and precise as possible and hope that most people understand the gist of it and try their best.

THE PERFECT IS THE ENEMY OF THE GOOD

Quote
That might just work, but I don't think you've quite thought through the implications.

I don't have to think about the implications of an impossible situation. That is a waste of time.

Quote
As Nietzsche said, "what is truth?". Who'll be in charge of deciding what messages to put out? Will anyone be permitted to argue with those messages?

What is truth starts with what we are. We think, therefore we exist. Thus we are beings of information. The problem is that information is infinite, therefore nothing can be known with absolute certainty.

 But practical life often proves that we can make very good guesses when have the best information possible, and that is what we seek. The best information possible. We can call that truth.

So how do we get the best information possible?

Many ways. One is agreement between experts who have searched the infinity of information for specific truths. One takes their collective agreement as very good truth. When such bodies misinform (purposedly or not), their loose their power as sources of truth. Peer review is a good example with all its flaws and virtues.

Another way, often better but more time consuming, is through experimentation. Do something enough times and if the answer comes up the same everytime, you will be right in calling your answer a truth. Like 1+1=2. If you add 1 object to 1 object you get 2 objects. I've been trying it all my life and has always come up as true. If you told me otherwise I would confidently call you a liar.
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nanning

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8987 on: September 24, 2020, 11:55:36 AM »
Eradicating the virus means short-term world wide lockdown, isolation and masks.
The problem with that, apart from greylib's arguments, is family situations and especially children. You need to keep absolutely everyone isolated for weeks, world wide in my view. We still have to eat and go shopping and e.g. essential work, infrastructure/maintenance, food supply and administrative tasks must go on in that situation.
Most people have a low capacity in understanding and a growing group doesn't trust science and government and will not comply.
I don't think that extirpating the virus is feasible in our contemporary economic growth and fake news societies. Alas.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8988 on: September 24, 2020, 12:43:00 PM »
Quote
Eradicating the virus means short-term world wide lockdown, isolation and masks.

False. It  only means lockdown in places that have out of control number of new cases. In places with out of control new cases societal change that results in lower R must be executed. The societal change should be implemented in a maximum effectiveness-minimum harm done basis.

By societal change I mean things like maximum occupancy, mask wearing, and mandatory social distancing in commercial and public spaces.

Quote
You need to keep absolutely everyone isolated for weeks, world wide in my view.

My bold. You don't need absolutely everyone. You need enough change like the one mentioned above to pass the "herd immunity threshold.

Quote
We still have to eat and go shopping and e.g. essential work, infrastructure/maintenance, food supply and administrative tasks must go on in that situation.

Many, many, many countries have already proven that shutdowns work even if peopl ego out to buy groceries, doctor visits and emergency services. In fact, much less than that is needed( at least during summer), but the will and cooperation of the people must be there. It won't be there if they don't understand the danger and the solutions.

If people think "the virus isn't real but if it is, there is HCQ", then they will make decisions that increase harm to themselves and others simply because they do not understand the risk behind their decisions.

Quote
Most people have a low capacity in understanding and a growing group doesn't trust science and government and will not comply.

Most people understand how to keep distance and wash hands. Also most people, although a smaller majority, knows how to use masks well enough.

Quote
I don't think that extirpating the virus is feasible in our contemporary economic growth and fake news societies. Alas.

By thinking it's not feasible, you make it not feasible.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8989 on: September 24, 2020, 01:44:15 PM »

We know that very likely immunity lasts only a couple of months. As with influenza.
The discussion started with the fallacy above. And we can finish it with a “We don’t know that’s true, in fact, it may be very wrong”.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8990 on: September 24, 2020, 02:05:32 PM »
As this virus is likely here for good, we really need to understand the long term heath implications for those who got infected and recovered.

Yes. The IFR is, at most. 1% but the percentage of those suffering long term health effects are far higher.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

RikW

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8991 on: September 24, 2020, 02:33:50 PM »
Quote
Eradicating the virus means short-term world wide lockdown, isolation and masks.

False. It  only means lockdown in places that have out of control number of new cases. In places with out of control new cases societal change that results in lower R must be executed. The societal change should be implemented in a maximum effectiveness-minimum harm done basis.

By societal change I mean things like maximum occupancy, mask wearing, and mandatory social distancing in commercial and public spaces.

Quote
You need to keep absolutely everyone isolated for weeks, world wide in my view.

My bold. You don't need absolutely everyone. You need enough change like the one mentioned above to pass the "herd immunity threshold.

Quote
We still have to eat and go shopping and e.g. essential work, infrastructure/maintenance, food supply and administrative tasks must go on in that situation.

Many, many, many countries have already proven that shutdowns work even if peopl ego out to buy groceries, doctor visits and emergency services. In fact, much less than that is needed( at least during summer), but the will and cooperation of the people must be there. It won't be there if they don't understand the danger and the solutions.

If people think "the virus isn't real but if it is, there is HCQ", then they will make decisions that increase harm to themselves and others simply because they do not understand the risk behind their decisions.

Quote
Most people have a low capacity in understanding and a growing group doesn't trust science and government and will not comply.

Most people understand how to keep distance and wash hands. Also most people, although a smaller majority, knows how to use masks well enough.

Quote
I don't think that extirpating the virus is feasible in our contemporary economic growth and fake news societies. Alas.

By thinking it's not feasible, you make it not feasible.

But then you don't eradicate the virus, you just keep it sort of under control; You see that happening in New Zealand; They had cases, full lock-down and nobody gets in or out, so virus gone; They reopen borders with strict measures and quarantaine and they had to go into lockdown again. At least their capital and the rest of the country also more strict rules;

So to be honest, unless we go into a world-wide quarantaine for 4-12 weeks, with only vital stuff like water, electricity, food supply, urgent health-care allowed and nothing else, it will just keep coming back I fear. Unless a vaccine is created that will give long-term projection, then something like with the small-pox can be managed.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8992 on: September 24, 2020, 02:39:30 PM »
Elimination by social measures doesn't work because not everyone is the same. There is a big variation in how many potentially infectious contacts people have.

Imagine a society in which the normal behaviour results in R=2. That is not a society in which every infected person infects two others. Its a society in which 10,000 infected people infect 20,000 others, but the distribution of infections is extremely skewed, a small fraction of those 10k are infecting a large fraction of those 20k. For the purpose of this illustration, assume 1k people infect 11k and 9k infect 9k.

Impose social restrictions that drop the number of contacts by 75%. If everyone was the same, R would now be 0.5, and the virus would eventually be driven extinct, but it would still take a long time. There's one halving to get from 20k infections to 10k infections, but another 13 to get from 10k down to 1.

However while there are now 10k people infecting 5k others, thats made up of 1k infecting 2.75k and 9k infecting  2.25k. The infection dies out fast among the less connected section of the population buts its still expanding in the more connected segment.

Lockdowns concentrate the infection into the superspreadee segment of the population, and when they are relaxed, those superspreadees become superspreaders. It takes really extreme measures to stop the infection in superspreadees, so extreme that a lot of societies that thought they had done it have found COVID epidemics breaking out again when they relaxed. Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Israel, South Korea can all trace large outbreaks/epidemics back to what they thought were reasonable exemptions to those extreme requirements. European second waves are showing a general pattern of lockdown having concentrated infection into a cohort of well connected young adults and it then expanding out from them into the less connected cohorts of the population with relaxation.

It takes far, far more severe restrictions on typical 20 year olds to eliminate the virus from them than it does on typical 40 year olds and those restrictions have to be kept to long after there is obvious sign of the virus circulating. Exponentials build up a lot faster than people expect, but they also die down a lot slower than people expect.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8993 on: September 24, 2020, 08:20:04 PM »
Maybe it’s time to revisit the bits of Thucydides on the plague and the death of Athenian democracy?



https://mobile.twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1308917894936489988

-----------------------------------

The Athenian Plague, a Cautionary Tale of Democracy’s Fragility
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/the-athenian-plague-a-cautionary-tale-of-democracys-fragility/amp

... Millennia later, the plague reminds us that the legacy of the eternal “wonder” of Athens contains within it a cautionary tale: the failure of democratic society to cope with a lethal epidemic. The model of how democracy began is also a study in how it can founder and fall.

... Thucydides’ account of the plague is especially horrifying. A seasoned, hard-bitten warrior, he was, for once, at a loss: “Words indeed fail one when one tries to give a general picture of this disease; and as for the suffering of individuals, they seemed almost beyond the capacity of human nature to endure.”

As Thucydides recorded with clinical detail, people suddenly felt their heads begin to burn, their eyes redden, their tongues and mouths bleed. Next came coughing, stomach pain, diarrhea, and “vomiting of every kind of bile that has been given a name by the medical profession.” The skin turned reddish with pustules and ulcers, while the stricken plunged into the city’s water tanks trying to slake an unquenchable thirst—possibly contaminating the water supply. Most died after about a week. The city was blanketed with corpses.

Athenian doctors bore the brunt: “Terrible . . . was the sight of people dying like sheep through having caught the disease as a result of nursing others.” Neither medicine nor quackery helped. Nor did consulting the oracles or praying in the temples, futile pieties which Thucydides dismissively noted were soon discarded.

“The catastrophe was so overwhelming that men, not knowing what would happen next to them, became indifferent to every rule of religion or of law,” Thucydides wrote. Orderly Athenians, no longer expecting to live long enough to face punishment for crimes, plunged into “a state of unprecedented lawlessness.” They could not even bother to lay their dead to rest respectably. Instead, survivors looked for already burning funeral pyres, adding friends and relatives to the blaze. And with the spectre of mortality looming at all times, they lived only for “the pleasure of the moment and everything that might conceivably contribute to that pleasure. No fear of god or law of man had a restraining influence.”

In Plato’s “Republic,” written several decades after the plague, Socrates warned that democracy would decay into tyranny; Thucydides recorded it sliding into discord, folly, and demagoguery. Only someone of Pericles’ intelligence and integrity, Thucydides wrote, “could respect the liberty of the people and at the same time hold them in check.” His death left Athenian democracy in the hands of self-serving scoundrels such as Alcibiades, who later promoted an oligarchic coup, and bellicose demagogues such as Cleon, whom Thucydides scorned as “remarkable among the Athenians for the violence of his character.”

For anyone hopeful that democracy is the best system for coping with the current coronavirus pandemic, the Athenian disaster stands as a chilling admonition. As Plato knew, political regimes are as fragile as any other human structure, and all fall in time. The plague devastated Athens for many years—Thucydides reckoned it took fifteen years to recover—but his account suggests that the damage to democracy lasted far longer. The stakes of our own vulnerability are no different.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8994 on: September 24, 2020, 08:51:47 PM »
Accuracy of Commercial Antibody Kits for SARS-CoV-2 Varies Widely: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-accuracy-commercial-antibody-kits-sars-cov-.html

There is wide variation in the performance of commercial kits for detecting antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), according to a study published September 24 in the open-access journal PLOS Pathogens.

... There was a broad range of performance among the tests, with specificity—the ability of the test to correctly identify those without the disease (true negative rate)—ranging from 82% to 100%, and overall sensitivity—the ability of a test to correctly identify those with the disease (true positive rate) - ranging from 60.9% to 87.3%. But all gave the best results when used 20 days or more after the start of symptoms, with most tests reaching a sensitivity value greater than 95%. In addition, antibody levels were higher in individuals with severe illness compared to those with asymptomatic or mild disease.

Pickering S, Betancor G, Galão RP, Merrick B, Signell AW, Wilson HD, et al. (2020) Comparative assessment of multiple COVID-19 serological technologies supports continued evaluation of point-of-care lateral flow assays in hospital and community healthcare settings. PLoS Pathog 16(9): e1008817.
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1008817
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8995 on: September 24, 2020, 08:58:23 PM »
AstraZeneca Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Remains On Hold in the U.S., HHS Chief Azar Says
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/23/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-trials-remains-on-hold-in-the-us-hhs-chief-azar-says-.html

AstraZeneca's late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial in the U.S. remains on hold as federal investigators seek "answers to important questions" to verify its safety for patients, HHS Secretary Alex Azar told CNBC Wednesday. 

Global clinical trials for AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, called AZD1222, were placed on hold on Sept. 6 after one of the participants in the U.K. reported a serious adverse reaction.

Azar told CNBC that a coronavirus vaccine's approval will be "based on science, data and the law."

... New CNBC/Change Research polls found that most voters worry President Donald Trump is pushing to release a coronavirus vaccine too quickly in order to boost his reelection chances this year.  Nationally, only 42% of likely voters said they will definitely or probably receive the inoculation when it first becomes available.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/voters-worry-trump-tying-covid-vaccine-to-2020-election-poll-f.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8996 on: September 24, 2020, 09:17:51 PM »
But then you don't eradicate the virus, you just keep it sort of under control;

In a pandemic, the perfect is the enemy of the good.

Erradication must be the goal. Most likely the outcume will be very low number of cases cropping up occasionally for the rest of our lives, but that's how it is. Life can resume to almost normal and still enjoy months or years of C19 free living. As long as survaillance is strong, any future outbreaks can be contained locally, like many countries are doing with c19 and like the world deals with things like Ebola and other non endemic diseases.

As testing becomes better, this becomes easier to do.

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You see that happening in New Zealand; They had cases, full lock-down and nobody gets in or out, so virus gone; They reopen borders with strict measures and quarantaine and they had to go into lockdown again
.


See their report of cases:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/3-cases-covid-19

FTL

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Today there are three new cases of COVID-19 to report in New Zealand – all detected in recent returnees in managed isolation facilities. There are no new community cases.

The three new cases are all separate returnees who arrived on different flights from the United States on 18 September; from London via Dubai on 16 September and from Croatia via Frankfurt and Dubai on 18 September. All three are in quarantine in Auckland.

New zealand hasn't completly erradicated the problem because travelers keep bringing it in. Rogue nations that don't care if their people die or become handicapped by disease make it more difficult for nations following simple science and basic ethics.


Small outbreaks are very easily contained with minimum disruption to most people. Large outbreaks are impossible to contain by means other than shutdowns.

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So to be honest, unless we go into a world-wide quarantaine for 4-12 weeks, with only vital stuff like water, electricity, food supply, urgent health-care allowed and nothing else, it will just keep coming back I fear.

But this is the most important thing to know. IT WILL KEEP COMING BACK. But if most countries keep it down to a nuisance that affects only a few people in a few places in the world (local quarentines), then most people, most of the time can live as if there was no coronavirus except for a few inconvenient but necesary steps ( distance, hand washing, mask if necesary).

People that are randomly exposed to coronavirus might suffer from local quarantines but that's preferable to global shutdowns. We pay the price of potential local quarantines to obtain global security.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8997 on: September 24, 2020, 10:54:30 PM »
For most of human history, plagues and pandemics did have transformational effects.
I have a feeling that this pandemic could be the most transformational since the Industrial Revolution.

If you could go back in time, and told someone from the 17th century that in four centuries' time less than five percent of people would work on the land, they'd be horrified. "So ninety-five out of a hundred will starve!" They couldn't possibly envisage a society like ours. Very few of us actually grow or make anything, except as hobbies. Mostly we exist by "taking in each other's washing" - non-jobs like Party Planner, TV Presenter, Hedge Fund Manager.

I put the last in because there may be some good, worthwhile hedge fund managers, who take people's savings and grow them. There are many others, though, who are fairly shady gamblers. There are other categories: drug dealer, snake-oil salesmen, and the less honest sorts of politicians, lawyers and bankers. Everybody making a living off each other, and very few doing anything to grow the human race into something better.

A lot of these non-jobs are going to vanish. To be replaced by what? I have very little idea, any more than our 17th-century peasant could understand how our world works.
Step by step, moment by moment
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8998 on: September 25, 2020, 01:09:47 AM »
Workers globally lost trillions in wages due to pandemic: UN
https://www.trtworld.com/business/workers-globally-lost-trillions-in-wages-due-to-pandemic-un-39986
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The decline of working hours by the mid-year point is equivalent to nearly 500 million full-time jobs.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8999 on: September 25, 2020, 01:43:04 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late