^ 100 million possibly, but Pence was implying several hundred(s) of millions ( i.e. 200-300 million) which, given a double dose, implies 400-600 million doses. This is over and above the flu vaccine program ~ 200 million. Those doses require vials and syringes.
Syringe and vial manufacturers have an total
annual capacity of ~ 850 million syringes, with ~ 500 million for routine non-vaccine hospital use.
They can brew enough vaccine; they just can't administer it.
... Not enough runway.
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Herd Immunity an Impractical Strategy, Study Findshttps://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-herd-immunity-impractical-strategy.htmlAchieving herd immunity to COVID-19 is an impractical public health strategy, according to a new model developed by University of Georgia scientists. The study recently appeared in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences....
"The herd immunity concept is tantalizing because it spells the end of the threat of COVID-19," said Toby Brett, a postdoctoral associate at the Odum School of Ecology and the study's lead author.
"However, because this approach aims to avoid disease elimination, it would need a constant adjustment of lockdown measures to ensure enough—but not too many—people are being infected at a particular point in time. Because of these challenges, the herd immunity strategy is actually more like attempting to walk a barely visible tightrope."... While recent studies have explored the impacts of both suppression and mitigation strategies in several countries, Brett and Rohani sought to determine if and how countries could achieve herd immunity without overburdening the health care system, and to define the control efforts that would be required to do so.
They developed an age-stratified disease transmission model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United Kingdom, with spread controlled by the self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and various levels of social distancing.
Their simulations found that in the absence of any control measures, the U.K. would experience as many as 410,000 deaths related to COVID-19, with 350,000 of those being from individuals aged 60-plus.
They found that using the suppression strategy, far fewer fatalities were predicted: 62,000 among individuals aged 60-plus and 43,000 among individuals under 60.If self-isolation engagement is high (defined as at least 70% reduction in transmission), suppression can be achieved in two months regardless of social distancing measures, and potentially sooner should school, work and social gathering places close.
When examining strategies that seek to build herd immunity through mitigation, their model found that if social distancing is maintained at a fixed level, hospital capacity would need to greatly increase to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. To instead achieve herd immunity given currently available hospital resources, the U.K. would need to adjust levels of social distancing in real time to ensure that the number of sick individuals is equal to, but not beyond, hospital capacity. If the virus spreads too quickly, hospitals will be overwhelmed, but if it spreads too slowly, the epidemic will be suppressed without achieving herd immunity.
They cautioned that if immunity is not perfect, and there is a significant chance of reinfection, achieving herd immunity through widespread exposure is very unlikely.Tobias S. Brett and Pejman Rohani,
Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies, PNAS first published September 22, 2020
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/21/2008087117 -------------------------------------
Wisconsin Declares New Public Health Emergency After Surge in Coronavirus Cases Among Young Peoplehttps://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/22/us/wisconsin-masks-required-covid-trnd/index.htmlWisconsin will continue to require people to wear face masks indoors after the state saw a surge of new Covid-19 cases.
The order was issued by Gov. Tony Evers on Tuesday, coupled with the declaration of a public health emergency. The order is effective immediately, according to the governor's office, and is due to steeply rising cases, particularly among people between the ages of 18 and 24.
Wisconsin is experiencing "unprecedented, near-exponential growth" of the virus, according to the release, with the daily number of new cases rising from 678 at the end of August to 1,791 on Monday.That increase has been driven in part by the unprecedented number of infections among 18- to 24-year-olds, who have a case rate five times higher than other age groups, the governor's office said.
The jump has occurred just in the last month, the release said, and six of the eight cities with the fastest rise tend to have University of Wisconsin System campuses.... "We are seeing an alarming increase in cases across our state, especially on campus. We need folks to start taking this seriously, and young people especially -- please stay home as much as you are able, skip heading to the bars, and wear a mask whenever you go out. We need your help to stop the spread of this virus, and we all have to do this together."
Evers announcement came as coronavirus-related deaths in the US topped the 200,000 mark.
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Video: "It affects virtually nobody," Trump says of the coronavirus, which has now killed 200,000 Americans and counting
https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1308209927274536961------------------------------------
Cases grow in more than half of U.S. states, JHU data showshttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/coronavirus-cases-grow-in-more-than-half-of-us-states.htmlAs of Monday, new cases were growing by 5% or more, based on a weekly average to smooth out the reporting, in 29 states and Washington D.C., according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Nationwide, daily coronavirus cases have grown nearly 20% compared with a week ago, moving above 43,300 new cases on average.
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White House Defends Hitting 200k Coronavirus Deaths: ‘We Were Expecting 2 Million’ ...
so it's all goodhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/white-house-coronavirus-death-rate-two-million-kayleigh-mcenany-b535170.html?amp... The 2 million figure seemed picked out of thin air.
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After 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths, the US Faces Another Rude Awakeninghttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/us-coronavirus-deaths-trump-autumn... There is a
Groundhog Day quality to the American experience of Covid-19. Back in March there was public outcry that, under Trump, protective gear to keep health workers safe was in critically short supply, testing for coronavirus was woefully inadequate and black Americans were dying in grotesquely disproportionate numbers.
Today, six months later, exactly the same laments can be heard. “There is a theme here,” said Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in San Diego. “Recreate the crime. We keep on doing it, over and over again." ...