COVID-19

[El Cid]

Obesity is far from irrelevant for Covid mortality, but neither is it the most determinative factor.  Age is.  Obesity approximately doubles risk of a bad outcome with Covid.  That's not nothing, neither is it a factor deserving of such attention:
https://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/43/7/1392.abstract

EXACTLY! Thank you.

[bbr2315]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/coronavirus-theory-that-chinese-propaganda-encouraged-western-nations-to-lock-down/news-story/19c3e85f1f3088e5b06f2fb97ee50629

Did China trick the world into committing economic suicide?

As the global community continues to grapple with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic – and the economic catastrophe caused by the associated “lockdowns” imposed by governments around the world – a chilling new theory has emerged.

It goes like this – China, in an enormous disinformation campaign spread via social media and through compromised voices in Western politics, science and medicine, aggressively pushed for other nations to follow its lead, with the goal of intentionally destroying their economies.

That’s according to Michael Senger, a lawyer and researcher based in Atlanta, Georgia. In an article for Tablet Magazine, Senger has laid out a disturbing timeline of evidence that, if true, hints at what could be the most effective and devastating psy-op ever carried out by a world government.

“By promoting fraudulent data, aggressively deploying disinformation, and flexing its institutional clout, Beijing transformed the snake oil of lockdowns into ‘science’, crippling rival economies, expanding its influence and sowing authoritarian values,” Senger writes on Twitter.

[Rodius]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/coronavirus-theory-that-chinese-propaganda-encouraged-western-nations-to-lock-down/news-story/19c3e85f1f3088e5b06f2fb97ee50629

Did China trick the world into committing economic suicide?

As the global community continues to grapple with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic – and the economic catastrophe caused by the associated “lockdowns” imposed by governments around the world – a chilling new theory has emerged.

It goes like this – China, in an enormous disinformation campaign spread via social media and through compromised voices in Western politics, science and medicine, aggressively pushed for other nations to follow its lead, with the goal of intentionally destroying their economies.

That’s according to Michael Senger, a lawyer and researcher based in Atlanta, Georgia. In an article for Tablet Magazine, Senger has laid out a disturbing timeline of evidence that, if true, hints at what could be the most effective and devastating psy-op ever carried out by a world government.

“By promoting fraudulent data, aggressively deploying disinformation, and flexing its institutional clout, Beijing transformed the snake oil of lockdowns into ‘science’, crippling rival economies, expanding its influence and sowing authoritarian values,” Senger writes on Twitter.

It should be noted that your source is Murdoch... the king of political bull shit, corruption and climate denial and much, much more.
That is not a source worth reading other than to keep up with propaganda.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Ron Conte Jr. gives a thorough summary of his views on why C-19 is such a bad disease.

Yes, The Coronavirus Really Is That Bad!
https://ronconte.com/2020/09/26/yes-the-coronavirus-really-is-that-bad/

[oren]

Ron Conte Jr. gives a thorough summary of his views on why C-19 is such a bad disease.

Yes, The Coronavirus Really Is That Bad!
https://ronconte.com/2020/09/26/yes-the-coronavirus-really-is-that-bad/

Very good article.

[Archimid]

Interestingly, had Brazil and the US lock down like first world countries did, the problem would basically be over by now.

Now the same people that told us thet C19 want us to belive that it went away. But it didn't, and it won't with Florida removing all occupancy restrictions. But it moves slows enough and it is warm enough that a huge fake can be created for November. That would be enough to contain an electoral wave that might give a few people in government scrupules when Trump tries to steal the elections.

After Novemeber no fakes are needed. I'm sure they will find a way to blame Obama when winter and Vit D deficiency do their thing.

[bbr2315]

Interestingly, had Brazil and the US lock down like first world countries did, the problem would basically be over by now.

Now the same people that told us thet C19 want us to belive that it went away. But it didn't, and it won't with Florida removing all occupancy restrictions. But it moves slows enough and it is warm enough that a huge fake can be created for November. That would be enough to contain an electoral wave that might give a few people in government scrupules when Trump tries to steal the elections.

After Novemeber no fakes are needed. I'm sure they will find a way to blame Obama when winter and Vit D deficiency do their thing.

Yes, the problem is totally over in Europe.

In NYC, it IS over, because we have herd immunity.

[crandles]

UK is screwed
Our Boris likes records. So he will be delighted that new cases 7 day average is a record-breaker! Super!

According to a UK professor in a month it looks like 100 deaths a day no matter what restrictions are put in place now. Current 7 day average = 30. A worthwhile sacrifice in the name of the great god GDP.

Unfortunately that 100 per day within 4 weeks is optimistic. Already at 7 day average of 30 per day. 30*1.5*1.5*1.5=101
Last couple of weeks England hospitalisations were growing by 80% per week but growth rate has reduced  - seems to have settled down at about 50% per week.

Seems like we(UK) will get there in 3 weeks or maybe a little less rather than 4 weeks.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Yes, the problem is totally over in Europe.

In NYC, it IS over, because we have herd immunity.

bbr2315, can you show me current statistics which show this?

[Shared Humanity]

Ron Conte Jr. gives a thorough summary of his views on why C-19 is such a bad disease.

Yes, The Coronavirus Really Is That Bad!
https://ronconte.com/2020/09/26/yes-the-coronavirus-really-is-that-bad/

OMG!

[Shared Humanity]

Yes, the problem is totally over in Europe.

In NYC, it IS over, because we have herd immunity.

bbr2315, can you show me current statistics which show this?

No...he can't. Last numbers I saw was around 25% infected, not enough for herd immunity.

Old article...

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-expands-free-antibody-testing-citywide-results-available-within-24-hours/2484721/

[Shared Humanity]

Receptors for SARS-CoV-2 Present in Wide Variety of Human Cells

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/receptors-for-sars-cov-2-present-in-wide-variety-of-human-cells-67496#:~:text=While%20there%20has%20been%20much,pancreas%2C%20kidney%2C%20and%20nose.

To uncover the locations of cells bearing ACE2 and TMPRSS2, the preprint researchers turned to the Human Cell Atlas, a project that has allowed scientists to pool together data on human cells since 2016.

By scouring single-cell sequencing records of around 1.2 million individual cells from human tissue samples, the team was able to find out which of those cells produce both ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and note their locations in the body. The analysis used 16 unpublished datasets of lung and airway cells and 91 published datasets spanning a range of human organs.

Coauthor Christoph Muus, a graduate student at Harvard University and the Broad Institute, explains that while the data show cells in many locations in the body produce SARS-CoV-2 receptors, it’s not certain that the virus can infect all of those tissues.

“Expressing the receptor is a necessary condition but not necessarily a sufficient condition,” he says. By finding viral protein fragments in tissue samples from patients who died because of COVID-19, scientists might be able to firm up which organs are genuine sites of infection, he adds.

Sorry to quote a comment I posted earlier but this was the easiest way to make my point. I ran across this yesterday. I have since started searching for research of COVID effects on all of the organs listed in the above article that express ACE2 receptors. There is a great deal of research that suggests COVID can damage these organs, even mild cases can cause damage.

I would encourage anyone who wants to get a handle on the current research into this dreadful disease to do the same.

[bbr2315]

Yes, the problem is totally over in Europe.

In NYC, it IS over, because we have herd immunity.

bbr2315, can you show me current statistics which show this?

No...he can't. Last numbers I saw was around 25% infected, not enough for herd immunity.

Old article...

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-expands-free-antibody-testing-citywide-results-available-within-24-hours/2484721/

Yes, I can, here is the daily testing site with accompanying graphs. Herd immunity does not mean the disease is eradicated, it means the primary wave is done and the number of infected is generally declining. Even if we do get an autumnal bump, I think it will be minimal relative to the primary wave (though I do think it is possible, and we may see one in spring as well).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

And here is the NYT excess death tolls. Nationally, 266K. NYC flat since June.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

NYC has probably got about 35%+ antibodies by now thanks to the continued burn through the young through summertime. Targeted / natural immunity threshold is LOWER than vaccine threshold which is why we already had herd immunity by May here.

Spanish Flu likely infected no more than 40% before dying out due to herd immunity, and this was between the cumulative waves. The massive primary wave in NYC in March and early April accomplished this in one go this time, due to public transit, schools, restaurants, delivery workers, etc.

[bbr2315]

PS: I can pull up Shared_Humanity's posts from April calling me hysterical and wrong for saying NYC was at herd immunity then and that deaths were plummeting and would soon reach near 0. If you would all like, I can easily prove he has been posting the same baseless screed since before he deleted his account. He gleefully anticipated the end of human civilization and of NYC. It is offensive to me as a New Yorker, i.e., someone who lived through what happened here, to the chagrin of people like SH.

It seems that 21% of the people in NYC tests positive for the serologies performed. Using 8.5 million as the population of NYC and 15k as the fatalities, that gives and IFR of about 0.85%.


Herd immunity will not be protective enough to depend on it.

The 21% is likely an undercount, as it takes three weeks to develop antibodies, so we are measuring as of 4/2 (or whenever three weeks before this study concluded was). With R0 around 1 or slightly below since then, it is not hard to imagine we could be at 30-40% by now. And that is probably distributed unevenly as well, i.e., most essential workers etc are probably now immune.

My previous posts re: blood type also should provide some buffer to herd immunity. 15% of the US is RH-, I would guess it is about that number in NYC, and this group has shown to be particularly resistant to infection and death (though we need a larger sample size). If 60-80% infected is needed for herd immunity without taking that into consideration, the actual % needed could be lower.

In either case, NYC is probably at 30%+ infected at this point, which I believe puts us past the tipping point towards herd immunity, and allows us to re-open already without risk of overwhelming hospitals. PAUSE has been devastating to everyday New Yorkers and medium / small businesses. It is ironic that after the Amazon HQ2 fiasco in LIC ("we don't want to subsidize AMZN!" they said), the politicians totaled the economy, with NYC's lockdown doubtlessly partially culpable for pushing AMZN stock to all time highs well above its previous highs.

It is time to end the lockdown, IMO. But also, they should mandate masks to be worn in public at all times.

While NYC is improving now, I think there is a factor many in this thread have missed. I do believe population-wide vitamin D levels are very important for attenuating both transmissibility and severity of this virus.

Is that you bbr?

Gone from peddling an impending ice age to hawking vitamin D as a cure all for SARS CoV-19. Why am I not surprised.

That is not at all what I said.

Vitamin D is not a cure, but it is very likely preventative re: transmission, and also re: severity.

All current hotspots in the outbreak are emerging from NHEM winter and have large Vit D deficient populations, with the exception of Guayaquil, which is emerging from their cloudiest time of year.

Additionally, as explicitly described in the study I linked which I am guessing you did not read, it is likely the confounding factor behind less morbidity AND less mortality in Bergen vs. Baltimore for Spanish Flu.

Why does every influenza pandemic peak in October / November?

It is not a CURE, but it is a major factor in the spread of disease, particularly those that target the upper respiratory tract, i.e. influenza, and probably COVID.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/isrn/2013/246737/

While working as a psychiatrist at a maximum-security hospital, John Cannell screened his patients for vitamin D and found that all had very low levels. This led him to recommend that they take 2000 IU/d of vitamin D, the US “upper limit of tolerability”. Several months later an epidemic of influenza broke out at the hospital. Cannell noticed that none of the patients on his own ward developed symptoms, yet sickness was rampant among patients on adjacent wards, despite intermingling between patients and nurses [36]. This observation suggested to Cannell that vitamin D supplementation protected against influenza, an idea consistent with several facts: influenza is a wintertime illness; children with rickets are at increased risk of respiratory infections; and elderly individuals in most countries are more likely to die in winter than in summer months. Cannell and associates [33–35] proposed that influenza is a dormant viral disease that becomes active in response to vitamin D deficiency. Seasonal fluctuations in influenza were explained in terms of annual fluctuations in 25-hydroxy-vitamin D levels due to lack of exposure to sunlight. The vitamin D deficiency hypothesis similarly explained the following observations:

(i)   the appearance of influenza in winter, when vitamin D levels are at their lowest,
(ii)   the disappearance of influenza following the summer solstice,
(iii)   the increased prevalence of influenza in the tropics and other areas during rainy seasons,
(iv)   the inverse association between influenza and outdoor temperature,
(v)   the decreased incidence of colds among children exposed to sunlight.

Activated vitamin D,1,25(OH)2D, a steroid hormone, is an immune system modulator that reduces the expression of inflammatory cytokines and increases macrophage function. Vitamin D also stimulates the expression of potent antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), which exist in neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer cells, and epithelial cells of the respiratory tract [37]. Other observations explained by the vitamin D hypothesis are that
(i)   volunteers inoculated with live influenza virus in winter were more likely to develop fever and serologic evidence of an immune response than in summer months;
(ii)   vitamin D deficiency predisposes children to respiratory infection;
(iii)   ultraviolet (UV) radiation reduces the incidence of viral respiratory infections;
(iv)   vitamin D supplementation reduces the incidence of respiratory infections in children [33].

The vitamin D deficiency hypothesis accounts for many hitherto unexplained facts about the epidemiology of influenza [38, 39]. Influenza is an allegedly highly infectious viral illness that shows marked seasonal fluctuations, peaking in the winter months and then ending abruptly; it has an obscure serial interval, with a very low secondary attack rate that occurs simultaneously in countries of similar latitude; it spreads very rapidly despite the absence of modern transportation; a high percentage of seronegative volunteers escape illness or experience only a mild illness after being inoculated with novel influenza virus; and vaccine effectiveness is questionable [40, 41].

Is Vitamin D a cure-all? No, it is not. Does it help your immune system when it is at adequate levels, reducing both your chances of acquiring viruses (esp those that attack the lungs) and reducing your chances of death? Research indicates this is the case. When POPULATION-WIDE levels are sufficiently high, does it reduce R0 of disease as well as mortality to levels that are usually undetectable? The seasonality of flu would argue that is the case.

So, the data shows it is important on both an individual AND a population-wide level. As March turns to April, and April turns to May, populations in the NHEM go from deficient to adequate. As September turns to October, the opposite occurs.

I hope Neven is right re: fatality rates. I am optimistic this has been very overblown, and that NYC may already be verging on herd immunity. I very much hope that is the case.

But there is certainly a possibility that the current pandemic is following the same trajectory as 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. In fact, the data behind every single previous pandemic's evolution would argue that is exactly what is happening.

I hope that latent infections do not reactivate in October. But the best thing you can do to protect yourself in that instance besides isolating is ensuring your immune system is operating at full capacity, and for that, you should be supplementing Vit D. I also have no intention of staying in NYC past September to find out if that is indeed the case, because the mismanagement in the herald wave of this pandemic leads me to believe that if the autumn wave is worse, NYC is going to be completely uninhabitable for however long.

P.S. Cuomo's conference today said antibody testing in NYC indicates about 22% of the city has now been exposed, and with a three-week lag from infections to antibodies, the % could be far higher by now. This is very good news for the summertime, and I think it shows NYC should now be back to work and out and about, although masks should still be mandatory in all public places. It also indicates the fatality rate is actually .5% in NYC, which is 5X or higher vs seasonal flu, but far from the plague etc.

I think my date to venture back to the "downbelow" is May 7th, aka 60 days of complete isolation in the "upabove," although I was basically isolated since Feb 22nd (was in suburban DC from 2/22-3/7, only contacts then were dentist apt and DR apt, the latter I wore a mask on & got prescriptions for chloroquine, tamiflu, and descovy / PrEP, none of which I have taken yet).

On that last note, I think Descovy / Truvada are the most promising candidates as prophylactics.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.022939v1

I would not be surprised to find out that Trump & Co. are already all on Descovy / Truvada, I don't see another explanation for how they are not infected given all the news from March re: the Brazilians, but the manufacturing capacity for these drugs is very limited and they would not be viable solutions for population-wide prevention anytime soon if the research is verified further.

SARS-CoV-2, a member of the coronavirus family, is responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic. We previously demonstrated that four nucleotide analogues (specifically, the active triphosphate forms of Sofosbuvir, Alovudine, AZT and Tenofovir alafenamide) inhibit the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). Tenofovir and emtricitabine are the two components in DESCOVY and TRUVADA, the two FDA-approved medications for use as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV infection. This is a preventative method in which individuals who are HIV negative (but at high-risk of contracting the virus) take the combination drug daily to reduce the chance of becoming infected with HIV. PrEP can stop HIV from replicating and spreading throughout the body. We report here that the triphosphates of tenofovir and emtricitabine, the two components in DESCOVY and TRUVADA, act as terminators for the SARS-CoV-2 RdRp catalyzed reaction. These results provide a molecular basis to evaluate the potential of DESCOVY and TRUVADA as PrEP for COVID-19.

I am currently stockpiling my Descovy for when I do leave NYC (hopefully), either bound for Australia / Taiwan or Hawai'i. By mid-September I will have a six-seven month supply which means I will have daily usage available for October-March. While the antibody testing etc leaves me optimistic re: summertime, I am very very worried about what is going to happen in October.

If you need proof that the same people have been posting the same misinformation since April, please see the above.

Unlike them, I am willing to revise my language: after processing all the data and information, re primary wave in NYC, and who it impacted etc, I am not fleeing to the SHEM due to the fact that we DO seemingly have herd immunity here (and the flight restrictions are annoying as well). Beyond that, it is now much more clear who is impacted by the virus and how to reduce your risk to near-0.

NYC deaths should be near zero in a week. We are already almost there. This is clearly Vitamin D-dependent and NOT lockdown-related. I took a walk on my birthday, 4/25, leaving my apt for the first time in 50 days, wearing goggles and an N95 mask. The park was not shoulder to shoulder packed, but it was crowded. There were probably 25% of people not wearing masks, including old people.

I think it is also probably partially to do with impending / partial herd-immunity now developing as well.

Oh, fun fact. This is now the deadliest disaster in NYC's history. We just passed Spanish Flu, according to the NYT's death toll (20,800+ excess deaths through 4/25 in NYC).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_disasters_in_New_York_City_by_death_toll

Bill DeBlasio and Andrew Cuomo are 95% to blame for this. The only thing Trump could have done beyond what he did would have been shutting down flights earlier (he shut them down roughly when all other countries shut them down, I do not fault him for this though it should have been done sooner). DeBlasio gets most of the blame as he refused to shut anything down until it was too late.

If the most recent estimates are correct, btw, we are at approximately 35K excess deaths in last year in NYC. A 1% fatality rate = 42% infected (8.4M NYers). Plateau / finish line almost exactly in line with Spanish Flu's death toll in NYC, actually (30K out of 5.6 million, ~.5%, vs 35K out of 8.4 million, or ~.4%).

While the Spanish Flu was a bit worse overall for NYC (to date, and likely and hopefully, in sum), the primary wave of COVID was actually worse than the 1918 autumnal wave of Spanish Flu. Spanish Flu's primary wave killed 21K, while COVID did 35K -- .375% vs. .417%, or about 11% worse relative to the population of the city in 1918.

[bbr2315]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/business/china-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Hardly surprising that a government in the process of active genocide is using its own people as lab rats for a vaccine. But clearly, many of you want to sign up -- I suggest a trip to Beijing for the willing!

[Shared Humanity]

CT Reveals Bowel Abnormalities in COVID-19 Patients

https://appliedradiology.com/communities/CT-Imaging/ct-reveals-bowel-abnormalities-in-covid-19-patients

"The retrospective study included 412 patients consecutively admitted to a single quaternary care center from March 27 to April 10, 2020, who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The cohort included 241 men (58.5%) and 171 women (41.5%), with an average age of 57 years.

Records showed that 17% of patients had cross-sectional abdominal imaging, including 44 ultrasounds, 42 CT scans, and 1 MRI. Bowel abnormalities were seen on 31% of CT scans (3.2% of all patients) and were more frequent in intensive care unit (ICU) patients than other inpatients. Bowel findings included thickening and findings of ischemia such as pneumatosis (gas in the bowel wall) and portal venous gas. Surgical correlation in four patients revealed unusual yellow discoloration of bowel in three of the patients, and bowel infarction (dead bowel) in two patients.

In two patients who had bowel resection, pathology demonstrated ischemia with patchy necrosis (injury due to reduced arterial flow with patchy areas of cell death). Both had fibrin thrombi (blood clots) in submucosal arterioles (small arteries in the bowel wall), suggesting bowel ischemia in these patients might be caused by these small blood clots."

[bbr2315]

CT Reveals Bowel Abnormalities in COVID-19 Patients

https://appliedradiology.com/communities/CT-Imaging/ct-reveals-bowel-abnormalities-in-covid-19-patients

"The retrospective study included 412 patients consecutively admitted to a single quaternary care center from March 27 to April 10, 2020, who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The cohort included 241 men (58.5%) and 171 women (41.5%), with an average age of 57 years.

Records showed that 17% of patients had cross-sectional abdominal imaging, including 44 ultrasounds, 42 CT scans, and 1 MRI. Bowel abnormalities were seen on 31% of CT scans (3.2% of all patients) and were more frequent in intensive care unit (ICU) patients than other inpatients. Bowel findings included thickening and findings of ischemia such as pneumatosis (gas in the bowel wall) and portal venous gas. Surgical correlation in four patients revealed unusual yellow discoloration of bowel in three of the patients, and bowel infarction (dead bowel) in two patients.

In two patients who had bowel resection, pathology demonstrated ischemia with patchy necrosis (injury due to reduced arterial flow with patchy areas of cell death). Both had fibrin thrombi (blood clots) in submucosal arterioles (small arteries in the bowel wall), suggesting bowel ischemia in these patients might be caused by these small blood clots."

according to a new study published May 11 in the journal Radiology.

Why is Shared_Humanity's constant reposting of dated articles from non-reputable websites now suddenly sanctioned as well? Why is he not held accountable?

[Shared Humanity]

STUDY FINDS GASTROINTESTINAL COMPLICATIONS LIKELY IN CRITICALLY ILL COVID-19 PATIENTS

https://advances.massgeneral.org/digestive-health/journal.aspx?id=1548

[bbr2315]

STUDY FINDS GASTROINTESTINAL COMPLICATIONS LIKELY IN CRITICALLY ILL COVID-19 PATIENTS

https://advances.massgeneral.org/digestive-health/journal.aspx?id=1548

PUBLISHED ON MAY 1, 2020

[Shared Humanity]

Gastrointestinal and hepatic manifestations of COVID-19: A comprehensive review

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7243653/

In recognition of the complaint made by bbr2315, I would like to apologize in advance for posting this link which draws from a highly direputable site...The National Institutes of Health.

I will take no offense if the moderator feels compelled to remove this comment.

[bbr2315]

Gastrointestinal and hepatic manifestations of COVID-19: A comprehensive review

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7243653/

Published online 2020 May 21.

[bbr2315]

Here is an actual reputable source and a recent article.

https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/delirium-encephalopathy-covid-19-update-from-field

During the early stages of COVID-19 in my state of Massachusetts, we experienced frequent emergency department referrals of brief psychosis related to severe anxiety in the context of what was then COVID-19 anticipation.1 Now that we are in a full-blown surge, the 2 most striking pathologies we are seeing on the medical side are a much greater volume than usual of refractory delirium, both in COVID-19 and patients without-COVID-19, punctuated by less common but puzzling cases of persistent encephalopathy seemingly related to COVID-19 infection.

COVID has caused people's brains to explode that have been infected, for sure, but it is also causing people's brains to explode in spite of remaining uninfected, as confirmed in the above article from a reputable source and an actual author (and a recent date.... and observations in the real and virtual worlds....).

[vox_mundi]

In Brazil's Amazon a COVID-19 Resurgence Dashes Herd Immunity Hopes
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-manaus-idUSKBN26I0I4

In Brazil, Reuters reports that a new surge of coronavirus cases in the city of Manaus has dashed hopes that herd immunity had brought the virus under control there.

When deaths plummeted in June, public health experts wonder if “so many residents had caught the virus that it had run out of new people to infect”, the report says.

But now University of Sao Paulo researchers say that the evidence suggests that collective immunity was at work, but that antibodies to the disease after infection may not last more than a few months – and infections are again on the rise.

In April and May, so many Manaus residents were dying from COVID-19 that its hospitals collapsed and cemeteries could not dig graves fast enough. The city never imposed a full lockdown. Non-essential businesses were closed but many simply ignored social distancing guidelines.

Then in June, deaths unexpectedly plummeted. Public health experts wondered whether so many residents had caught the virus that it had run out of new people to infect.

Research posted last week to medRxiv, a website distributing unpublished papers on health science, estimated that 44% to 66% of the Manaus population was infected between the peak in mid-May and August.

The Sao Paulo University study said coronavirus antibodies appeared to wane after just a few months, which could explain the resurgence in Manaus.

... Now the numbers are on the rise again.

“Something that became evident in our study – and that is also being shown by other groups – is that antibodies … decay quickly, a few months after infection,” one of its authors, Leis Buss, said in a statement by the São Paulo research foundation FAPESP that accompanied the paper.

“This is clearly occurring in Manaus.”

------------------------------------------

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Concern is growing over an increasing number of COVID-19 cases being confirmed in New Jersey and New York City.

Residents of eight neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens may face new COVID-19 restrictions due to growing clusters of the virus.

More than 1,000 New Yorkers tested positive for COVID-19 in a single day Friday, marking the first time since June 5 the state has seen a daily number that high.

The number of positive tests reported daily in the state has been steadily inching up in recent weeks, a trend possibly related to increasing numbers of businesses reopening, college campuses reopening and children returning to school.

Concern is growing over an increasing number of COVID-19 cases being confirmed in New Jersey. The state reported 760 new positive cases Saturday, pushing the cumulative total to 202,850, Governor Phil Murphy said in a tweet. Saturday's total followed two days of increases. Officials are most concerned about rising positive test totals in five counties: Ocean, Gloucester, Monmouth, Middlesex and Bergen.

From late July through the start of September the state was seeing an average of around 660 people test positive per day. In the seven-day period that ended Friday, the state had averaged 817 positive tests per day.

---------------------------------

[Shared Humanity]

I would like to continue to post actual research into this novel virus as there is so much to be learned. I have been doing this with no real judgment on my part as to the scientific merit of the research. I have an Economics degree and MBA from the University of Chicago and have absolutely no ability to evaluate the research.

Given how this effort on my part is causing such agitation here, I will cease posting this research for the time being. I would ask that the moderator (kassy) please weigh in on my comments. If the moderator feels they are not appropriate, I will stop permanently.

[Bruce Steele]

SH, Just put him on ignore. Love it when bbr wants moderators. Then blows through all former advice.
Covid thread goes zerohedge too often .

[bbr2315]

I would like to continue to post actual research into this novel virus as there is so much to be learned. I have been doing this with no real judgment on my part as to the scientific merit of the research. I have an Economics degree and MBA from the University of Chicago and have absolutely no ability to evaluate the research.

Given how this effort on my part is causing such agitation here, I will cease posting this research for the time being. I would ask that the moderator (kassy) please weigh in on my comments. If the moderator feels they are not appropriate, I will stop permanently.

It is so telling that you flaunt your education alongside your ignorance. As if you need to qualify your opinions.

And it is also telling that his retort that "NCBI is not a reputable source" was in response to an article he posted AFTER I said he was posting unreliable sources (which he was, and the proof is prior). So he then posts an NCBI article, which is STILL dated early May, and uses it to discredit me as saying NCBI is unreliable, which I did not, and which was not my criticism of that article.

So this "educated" person is certainly very good at constructing strawmen. If only he were as accomplished at setting them on fire. Because we are stuck with the visual atrocities in this here discussion.

Naturally it is an elitest with an Economics Degree from the University of Chicago who would want a society bifurcated into those who must work everyday drudgery taking risks to provide and feed for the nobled intellectual elites, huddled inside their high rises or basements because their lives are more worthy of protection, and their pursuits more pristine and divine than those who would feed, clothe, and ensure they are protected.

But what are these contributions? Revelations from "radiologytoday" dated as of early May. Wow! Thanks for the cutting-edge research. You definitely deserve the ability to stay cloistered away while people are exposed to the "deadly virus" on your behalf. Because who cares about them, you are the special awesome one here with a DEGREE! And you even managed to find an article from a more reputable source dated a whole week after the other ones. Too bad it was still dated as of May.

Your shtick here is obvious, you are not participating in this thread in good faith, and your "oh I am just trying to help I don't know what dates are" obliviousness is unbelievable if you really did go to U of Chicago. Perhaps you have been lobotomized since earning your alleged Degree, but that would be a legitimate excuse for your habits, so if that is the case, I do apologize for continuing to engage here -- evidently I may be the one needing a lobotomy if this goes on much longer.

[Shared Humanity]

SH, Just put him on ignore. Love it when bbr wants moderators. Then blows through all former advice.
Covid thread goes zerohedge too often .

An alternative approach would be for me to quit reading anymore research as I already know enough about the virus to understand how dangerous it is. My ex is also a doctor and we are on very good terms. She is keeping me abreast of research as well. If I stop reading research, I won't feel compelled to post it here.

[bbr2315]

SH, Just put him on ignore. Love it when bbr wants moderators. Then blows through all former advice.
Covid thread goes zerohedge too often .

An alternative approach would be for me to quit reading anymore research as I already know enough about the virus to understand how dangerous it is. My ex is also a doctor and we are on very good terms. She is keeping me abreast of research as well. If I stop reading research, I won't feel compelled to post it here.

Why are you reading research from early May and posting it as if it were breaking? Wouldn't someone who earned an Economics Degree from the U of Chicago know how to read research papers that are recent? And wouldn't they post from reputable sites right away as research is released and not feign ignorance and bad faith in posting links from radiology-today? If they were here in good faith, and actually contributing, that is?

Should you be allowed to post articles about August sea ice loss the following January in the freezing season thread when the topic of the articles is melt, and the minima has been established, when it wasn't at the time of the article? We are almost five months ahead of May, that is the equivalent here. You are doing this in BAD FAITH.

[bbr2315]

SH wants to remain in his Ivory Tower protected from the plebes. Meanwhile, suicides spike. Who cares? Not SH. He is safe. Praise the Lord!

SH, this article is dated TODAY, September 27th, 2020. The data at the top is when the article goes live, in case you didn't know. So it's good to post recent news.

As established, September 27th, 2020, is today -- just so you are clear! Since you allegedly went to the University of Chicago and apparently did graduate, you should be good at learning stuff, like how dates work.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-air-force-stress-archive-army-2be5e2d741c1798fad3f79ca2f2c14dd

The Pentagon refused to provide 2020 data or discuss the issue, but Army officials said discussions in Defense Department briefings indicate there has been up to a 20% jump in overall military suicides this year. The numbers vary by service. The active Army’s 30% spike — from 88 last year to 114 this year — pushes the total up because it’s the largest service. The Army Guard is up about 10%, going from 78 last year to 86 this year. The Navy total is believed to be lower this year.

Army leaders say they can’t directly pin the increase on the virus, but the timing coincides.

“I can’t say scientifically, but what I can say is - I can read a chart and a graph, and the numbers have gone up in behavioral health related issues,” Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said in an AP interview.

Pointing to increases in Army suicides, murders and other violent behavior, he added, “We cannot say definitively it is because of COVID. But there is a direct correlation from when COVID started, the numbers actually went up.”

Preliminary data for the first three months of 2020 show an overall dip in military suicides across the active duty and reserves, compared to the same time last year. Those early numbers, fueled by declines in Navy and Air Force deaths, gave hope to military leaders who have long struggled to cut suicide rates. But in the spring, the numbers ticked up.

“COVID adds stress,” said Gen. Charles Brown, the Air Force chief, in public remarks. “From a suicide perspective, we are on a path to be as bad as last year. And that’s not just an Air Force problem, this is a national problem because COVID adds some additional stressors – a fear of the unknown for certain folks.”

[wili]

Correlation is not always evidence of causation:

From the article: " they can’t directly pin the increase on the virus"

" ...they can’t directly pin the increase on the virus..."

The Army generally does a pretty abysmal job of taking care of mental health issues, though, so this really isn't much of a surprise.

[kassy]

Scientific reports about effects of the virus are not really tied to a certain date. If there is newer research that might be better but these things are not just going to go away.

How much people suffer from them and which specific groups they hit most is another question but debating that takes more then stating it is from may or june.

Basically it is one disease but people have a different focus which also varies with where they are geographically and economically and thus we disagree.

Neither focusing on the worst outcomes or the best is going to help because in the world is going to produce it´s own outcomes. This is sort of similar to the whole general debate on global warming. Arguably it would be more interesting to explore what we could agree on.

[Alexander555]

What would come out of this, if we get a large outbreak in the NH this winter. As far as i understand over here, they have now less medication to treat covid-19 patients than during the first outbreak. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/agra/snmc-fails-to-fulfill-increased-demand-for-oxygen/articleshow/78338965.cms

[vox_mundi]

From Worldometer COVID-19 stats ...

Cases: 33,281,384

Deaths: 1,001,756

Currently Infected Patients: 7,684,575

Currently Serious or Critical: 65,353

Poll review: ~ 40% underestimated the severity of the Pandemic - so far

[Rodius]

Can someone please stop Bbr?
People post research and he puts a date beside it as if it means something.... he is trolling this thread and most of the time he doesn't front up with supporting evidence, trolls anyone who says anything outside his frame of mind and makes things personal and offensive.

Good people are leaving because of his behavior and I want to read the material others bring to the table without having to scroll through Bbr rants and raves.

When if enough, enough?

[oren]

bbr has been placed on moderation again because of his abusive posting style. Hopefully the recent atrocities should die down. If you still run into posts that you find offensive, please "report to moderator".

[longwalks1]

De Conte recent article   I did appreciate it.   It lays out various items to look up more things on. 

However for one small section I have reservations.  The Liu, W., & Li, H. (2020). “COVID-19: attacks the 1-beta chain  paper is not that new.   It is not based on in vitro or in vivo   but "in silico" Computer modeling. 

Reading the paper I could see definite ESL'isms, translating your ideas and models into another language is hard.  But then their descriptions of how things progressed did not seem to have been written by biologists. 

The following source authored by a biologist who definitely knows his way around RBC's and hemoglobin makes my skepticism about that the covid-19 virus having a specific route into binding with RBC's and lysiing outthe hemes grow.   

https://medium.com/@amdahl/covid-19-debunking-the-hemoglobin-story-ce27773d1096
Covid-19: Debunking the Hemoglobin Story

Beyond the questionable evidence for virus binding the porphyrin at all, the issue here is that the heme/porphyrin is still in the heme pocket, a space barely large enough for two-atom molecules like oxygen (O2). Despite that, the blog post author seems to believe the virus (which is larger than the entire hemoglobin protein) will be able to enter the pocket, kick out the iron, and bind the porphyrin while leaving the porphyrin and protein otherwise totally intact. To put it charitably, this would be an entirely novel and seemingly impossible sort of chemistry, and there is absolutely no scientific evidence that supports such a possibility. It’s this seemingly impossible interaction that forms the foundation of the blog post’s entire argument, and so the remainder of the conclusions drawn by the blogger simply don’t carry any weight.

Later he was part of a paper
N

o evidence of hemoglobin damage by SARS-CoV-2
infection
by Anthony W. DeMartino, Jason J. Rose, Matthew B. Amdahl, Matthew R. Dent,
Faraaz A. Shah, William Bain, Bryan J. McVerry, Georgios D. Kitsios, Jesús Tejero
and Mark T. Gladwin

https://www.haematologica.org/article/view/haematol.2020.264267

The rest of the DeConte article had nothing that caught my eye as amiss.   

[Rodius]

Melbourne Update.

We have been told there is at least three more weeks of lock down and it wont be removed until there are less than 5 cases per day over a two week period.
The attack on Covid has been led by the State Premier, which is great because our Prime Mininster, Scott Morrision, wants Melbourne opened up asap... given the levels at the moment are still higher than when this whole mess started, opening up asap would see a repeat event although maybe less worse given summer is slowly arriving.

This article goes into the path forward and the current situation
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-28/victoria-coronavirus-update-new-cases-melbourne-restrictions/12709402

Now that Covid is tamed, the politics is heating up. Opposition are claiming breaches of human rights, the private security company that was meant to stop Covid entering Australia has been found responsible for the outbreak.

As an aside, given the rest of Australia is in control, talks are moving ahead for travel bubbles between Non Victorian States and New Zealand. Victoria will be added to the list in a few months, most likely.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/25/victoria-may-be-able-to-pursue-security-company-for-cost-of-hotel-quarantine-failures

What this highlights to me is just how contagious this virus is. One source well hidden for just long enough shut down Melbourne for months, cost 766 lives and counting since July, is causing severe strain on mental health services, the economy and is basically a total mess. And that is with strong restrictions and leadership.

Melbourne is still an very good example of excellent testing and tracking.

When the US and Euro and UK reach winter and all hell has broken out, I wonder if anyone will compare the results in those regions with what happened with good management of the outbreak in Melbourne?

[El Cid]

When the US and Euro and UK reach winter and all hell has broken out, I wonder if anyone will compare the results in those regions with what happened with good management of the outbreak in Melbourne?

No they won't. They will blame winter for all the dead. BTW, I think the virus-scare is over in Australia. Spring has already started. You do not have much to worry about if Europe's spring/summer experience is any guide.

[Archimid]

Carpe diem Melbourne.

You protected your people from the worse, now clean up. This is the time to significantly increase testing and contact tracing of any positives. Random testing should be done anywhere it can be done looking for those elusive asymptomatics.

[Rodius]

Melbourne is the only place in Australia that had a second wave.
Probably not an entire coincidence given we are one of the colder places in the country and anything hot has had no real issues... which is a combination of weather and good management.

Since Spring is here (warming up fast now) the virus will struggle and, hopefully disappear.
Testing is still high but not random. People are fronting up for testing most of the time.

I am not worried about the situation anymore, it is sorted barring the end clean up over the next few weeks. Summer is coming, bike rides and bike tours are prepared, all we need now is no bad fires like last year and it looks like we are having an average season this year.

My attention is on the NH now, what happens in that half of the world is what matters in terms of large scale problems.... to be honest, I am quite concerned about the coming four to six months.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Myself I figure a few months old is fine. Science isn’t advancing that fast.

[El Cid]

My attention is on the NH now, what happens in that half of the world is what matters in terms of large scale problems.... to be honest, I am quite concerned about the coming four to six months.

I have a good idea. Maybe we, NH-dwellers should move to Australia for your summer so that we would be more protected from the virus. That would ease your concerns I guess

[Tom_Mazanec]

Would get a little crowded down under, El CID.

[Shared Humanity]

When the US...reaches winter and all hell has broken out, I wonder if anyone will compare the results in those regions with what happened with good management of the outbreak in Melbourne?

No or we would be comparing current U.S. performance with South Korea which recorded its first official case on the exact same day as the U.S.

South Korea - 23,661 cases - 406 deaths
United States - 7,321,465 cases - 209,454 deaths

There is absolutely no one discussing this in the U.S. (No politicians, no press, no one...)

(Edit:) Something just struck me as I looked at these numbers.

For South Korea to have kept the numbers so low and given how highly contagious this bug is, they must have been able to identify those who were asymptomatic before these persons were allowed to spread the infection. This would suggest that the official case number is close to the actual number infected.

If this is true then the CFR is very close to the IFR. South Korea's CFR is 1.7%. We might want to consider this the upper bound for the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate).

Am I looking at this wrong?

[Shared Humanity]

Carpe diem Melbourne.

You protected your people from the worse, now clean up. This is the time to significantly increase testing and contact tracing of any positives. Random testing should be done anywhere it can be done looking for those elusive asymptomatics.

Yep. This is not hard to do.

[gerontocrat]

World dead just passed 1 million - 9 more voters in the poll tear up their betting slips.

Next benchmark = 10 million. If death rates kept on as they are sometime in the mid-late 2020's.
But of course the people who presume to govern us would never let that happen, would they?

[vox_mundi]

Positive COVID-19 Test Rates Top 25% In Some U.S. Midwest States
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL1N2GO09I

Sept 27 (Reuters) - The number of tests coming back positive for COVID-19 is topping 25% in several states in the U.S. Midwest as cases and hospitalization also surge in the region, according to a Reuters analysis.

North Dakota's positive test rate has averaged 30% over the past seven days compared with the prior week. The positivity rate has risen to 26% in South Dakota, up from 17% the previous
week, according to the analysis using testing data from The COVID Tracking Project.

Minnesota and Montana are averaging 7% of tests coming back positive, but Montana's positivity rate rose on Sunday to 20%, according to the analysis

At the same time that positive test rates are climbing in the Midwest, cases and hospitalizations are setting records in those states.

In the last week, five Midwest states have reported record one-day rises in new infections - Minnesota, Montana, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Wisconsin set records for new cases twice last week and is now reporting more new infections each day than Florida. South Dakota set records for new cases three times last week.   

While a recent increase in testing might explain some of the increase in cases, hospitalizations have also surged in the Midwest and are not influenced by the number of tests performed.

Wisconsin's hospitalizations set new records seven days in a row last week, rising to 574 on Saturday from 362 a week ago.

South Dakota's hospitalizations have set records six of the last seven days, rising to 216 on Sunday from 170 seven days earlier.

Wyoming and North Dakota also had record numbers of COVID-19 patients in their hospitals last week.

All Midwest states except Ohio reported more cases in the past four weeks as compared with the prior four weeks, according to a Reuters analysis.

The United States is reporting 46,000 new infections on average each day, compared with 40,000 a week ago and 35,000 two weeks ago.

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-states/

Deaths have generally been trending downward in the United States for about six weeks. Deaths are a lagging indicator and can take several weeks to rise after an increase in cases.

----------------------------------

New Yorkers With ‘Long-Haul’ Symptoms Are Upending the Narrative About COVID-19
https://champ.gothamist.com/champ/gothamist/news/new-yorkers-with-long-haul-symptoms-are-upending-the-narrative-about-covid-19

-----------------------------------

Trump Spends $300 Million in Taxpayer Money for COVID-19 Spin Campaign
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/27/opinions/trump-covid-19-campaign-election-obeidallah/index.html

Trump's latest ploy is to try to convince voters into believing he did a great job handling the virus — and the worst part is he's using our tax dollars to do this. As Politico recently reported, Trump's Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is moving quickly to roll out a $300 million-plus advertising campaign to "defeat despair" about Covid-19.

While the latest ads have not yet aired, senior House Democrats have already raised concerns that it smacks of Trump using the apparatus of government to help win reelection.

Democrats have good reason for these concerns given that the person said to have conceived of the campaign is Trump's hand-picked HHS spokesman Michael Caputo, a Republican political campaign operative with no medical or scientific background and a history of racist tweets about Chinese people.

Add to that,10 current and former HHS officials told Politico that they had concerns over the ad campaign's possible political goals and its use of money that was earmarked for PPEs & vaccine research by the Center for Disease Control during the pandemic. While the career HHS official now taking over the ad campaign from Caputo denies that there will be political spin in its messaging, the reality is that it's Trump, as President, who will have final say in what his administration does.

... this is the same Trump who in 2018 told his supporters not to believe stories in the media that he viewed as hurting him politically, ... "What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening."

Trump is the king of gaslighting. American voters should be vigilant about whether he's now trying to use our own tax dollars to try to gaslight us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenJackReed/status/1309889283776565249



-----------------------------------

What Is The Death Rate For Covid-19 Coronavirus? What This Study Found
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/09/26/what-is-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-coronavirus-what-this-study-found/amp/

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352

------------------------------------

Crew On First Post-Pandemic Greek Cruise Contract Virus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-crew-post-pandemic-greek-cruise-virus.html

A dozen crew members on the first cruise ship to dock in Greece after the coronavirus lockdown have tested positive, the Greek coastguard said on Monday.

The Maltese-flagged Mein Schiff 6 operated by German travel giant TUI, with 922 passengers on board, is currently moored off the Aegean island of Milos, a coastguard spokeswoman told AFP.

The cruise ship had sailed from the Cretan port of Iraklio on Sunday evening and was heading to Piraeus near Athens.

The passengers had a clean bill of health before the voyage, the spokeswoman said. [ ... now, not so much ...]

------------------------------

Merkel 'Deeply Concerned' by Rapid Jump In Coronavirus Infections
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-merkel-deeply-rapid-coronavirus-infections.html

Chancellor Angela Merkel is deeply worried about sharply rising new coronavirus infections in Germany, her spokesman said Monday, urging citizens to keep to strict hygiene measures including masks if social distancing cannot be maintained.

... In a meeting with her CDU party's top brass, Merkel warned that new infection numbers—currently at around 2,000 a day—could leap to 19,200 daily by Christmas if the trend "continues in this way," party sources told AFP.

The chancellor's warning came a day before she is due to hold a video conference with the premiers of Germany's 16 states on the next measures to take to keep infections down.

--------------------------------------

Madrid Widens Restrictions, 1 Million People Now Under Partial Lockdown
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-madrid-widens-restrictions-1mn-people.html

... Since midnight, the new measures impose mobility restrictions on another 167,000 people who can only leave their neighbourhoods for work, school or medical reasons. But they are not confined to their homes and can move freely within their district.

Police were conducting random checks to ensure compliance with the new rules, which now apply to nearly one in six of the region's 6.6 million residents.

An initial confinement order affecting 850,000 people was rolled out a week ago, largely affecting working-class areas in the city's southern suburbs where on Sunday hundreds turned out in protest over what they see as discrimination.

Since the central government ended its state of emergency on June 21, responsibility for public healthcare and managing the pandemic has been transferred to Spain's 17 autonomous regions.

But the central government is deeply unhappy with the regional government's handling of the crisis in Madrid, epicentre of the outbreak in Spain, urging its leaders to adopt more drastic measures and threatening to step in if they refuse.

Over the past week, Spain has registered the highest number of new cases within the EU with a rate of nearly 300 per 100,000 inhabitants—but in the Madrid region, the figure is currently more than 700 per 100,000.

[Tom_Mazanec]

World dead just passed 1 million - 9 more voters in the poll tear up their betting slips.

Next benchmark = 10 million. If death rates kept on as they are sometime in the mid-late 2020's.
But of course the people who presume to govern us would never let that happen, would they?

Is there some way to find out who voted for what?

[greylib]

I voted 1-10 million deaths, and prayed I was wrong. Now I'm starting to pray I was right

[Andre Koelewijn]

World dead just passed 1 million - 9 more voters in the poll tear up their betting slips.

Next benchmark = 10 million. If death rates kept on as they are sometime in the mid-late 2020's.
But of course the people who presume to govern us would never let that happen, would they?

Is there some way to find out who voted for what?

The bolding is mine.

I felt a bit pessimistic when I voted the current bin, because I thought that even someone like Trump would be too sensible to let the USA, great again, contribute to 1 million deaths worldwide in ten years.
Now I hope I have not been too optimistic.

And yes, there is a way to find out who voted for what: if they all come forward (like I did already sometime ago)