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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 382940 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9350 on: October 15, 2020, 11:30:43 PM »
That chart is rising faster than a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch

So far it's remained at 2 degrees of separation around here.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9351 on: October 16, 2020, 01:54:51 AM »
Meanwhile,

UK data

On a per capita basis the 7 day trailing average of new cases is now well ahead of the USA and looks like rising some more.

As regards daily deaths, the 7 day trailing average is 100, on a per capita basis still well below the USA. But the last 3 days daily average was 139, pretty much the same as the USA on a per capita basis.

Then again, our Boris always says the UK can be a world-beater.
"We are the champions, no time for losers"
____________________________________________

ps: Covid-19 has been sniffing uncomfortably close to our door recently. I would rather not be culled in the name of herd immunity, though I know that in the absence of a widely available effective vaccine........ Those who peddle this herd immunity crap deserve the worst the world can offer.

UK death rate has been on a fairly consistent doubling rate since it started to go back up. A factor of 7 per month. Another month and another factor of 7 and its back at first wave peak levels. There's starting to be an excess deaths signal again, deaths for week 40 (week ending Oct 2nd) are at the edge of the noise level and it'll be a clear signal when next week's report is out.

There's no escaping herd immunity, whether its achieved by infections circulating round the herd, or changing the herd behaviour or immunising the herd (except via complete elimination and that boat sailed in January). We actually had herd immunity from lockdown to end July but behaviour changes at end July lost it and put us back on the infection path. James' model reckons it takes a peak of about 5k deaths per day to re-establish it at current herd behaviour, the back of my envelope says 3k.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9352 on: October 16, 2020, 03:43:32 AM »
COVID-19 Will Probably Become Endemic – Here's What That Means
https://theconversation.com/amp/covid-19-will-probably-become-endemic-heres-what-that-means-146435

... In practice, there are a number of patterns that can be observed in endemic diseases. Some can exist at low levels throughout the year, while others might show periods of higher transmission interspersed with periods of low transmission. This might happen if seasonal factors influence how much contact people have with one another, how susceptible they are to the disease, or other organisms that spread it such as insects.

As long as there is a sufficient supply of people still susceptible to the disease for each infected person to pass it on to, it will continue to spread. This supply can be replenished in various ways, depending on the characteristics of the disease.

... In diseases that only give temporary immunity through natural infection, people lose that immune protection to become susceptible again. A virus or bacteria can also evade the immune memory by mutation so that people with immunity to an older strain will become susceptible to the new version of the disease. Influenza is a prime example.

We don’t yet know how long immunity from infection from COVID-19 will last, or how good vaccines will be at protecting people. But other coronaviruses that are endemic in the human population, such as those that cause colds, only confer temporary immunity of about one year.

... How we deal with COVID-19 once it becomes endemic will depend on how good our vaccines and treatments are. If they can protect people from the most severe outcomes, the infection will become manageable. COVID-19 will then be like several other diseases that we have learned to live with and many people will experience during their lives.

If vaccines not only prevent clinical disease but also strongly reduce transmission and confer long-lasting immunity, we can envisage other scenarios, such as the potential eradication of the disease. But realistically this is unlikely. Eradication is notoriously difficult, even for diseases for which we have almost perfect vaccines and permanent immunity. Endemic disease is therefore the most likely outcome.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9353 on: October 16, 2020, 06:37:22 AM »
If we accept it as endemic, indeed, it will be the most likely outcome. It is completely up to us. IT is a farse that it can't be erradicated.

A very powerful farce indeed. By pretending the virus is already endemic or it is some magiccal object that can't be avoided they can take the fight out of everyone and guarantee that it indeed becomes endemic with results completely unknown.

Erradication is "easy". It has been done by many countries already but countries who gave up in despair and decided it wasn't stoppable keep contaminating the countries that didn't listen to the endemic inevitability nonsense.

Frankly, I don't think C19 will become endemic at all. I think that when hospitals get packed again and the massive death beggins again the "endemic inevitability" talk will go away and people all over the NH will finally take this serious enough to erradicate it.

Who knows maybe by January the US stops being a world wide C19 super spreader and becomes part of the solution instead of the main problem.

That would end all endemic talk.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9354 on: October 16, 2020, 07:21:05 AM »
I remarked a few years ago in another thread on evolution of climate denialism:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1364.msg67104.html#msg67104

The endemic argument reminds me of points 4) and 5) in that evolution.

sidd

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9355 on: October 16, 2020, 02:05:38 PM »
But the more general argument was that: other coronaviruses that are endemic in the human population, such as those that cause colds, only confer temporary immunity of about one year.

If that is the case now we should figure that out some time next year. Hopefully this one being new provokes a longer immune response but we will see.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9356 on: October 16, 2020, 03:07:22 PM »
COVID-19 Will Probably Become Endemic – Here's What That Means
https://theconversation.com/amp/covid-19-will-probably-become-endemic-heres-what-that-means-146435


Thank you for this link...certainly the most likely outcome and something for which we need to prepare. Endemic does not mean perpetual lockdown and wildly high transmission rates.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9357 on: October 16, 2020, 03:34:48 PM »
A rare Covid-19 complication was reported in children. Now, it's showing up in adults.
Quote
...Typically, severely ill Covid-19 patients tend to arrive at the hospital because they're having trouble breathing. That hasn't been the case with MIS-A [multi-system inflammatory syndrome in adults].

Many MIS-A patients report fevers, chest pain or other heart problems, diarrhea or other gastrointestinal issues — but not shortness of breath. And diagnostic tests for Covid-19 tend to be negative.

Instead, patients will test positive for Covid-19 antibodies, meaning they were infected two to six weeks previously, even if they never had symptoms.


"Just because someone doesn't present with respiratory symptoms as their primary manifestation does not mean that what they're experiencing isn't as a result of Covid-19," Morris said.

The illness can be life-threatening. Patients usually have some kind of severe dysfunction of at least one organ, such as the heart or the liver. ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/rare-covid-19-complication-was-reported-children-now-it-s-n1243161
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9358 on: October 16, 2020, 05:11:49 PM »
Of course it also matters what we do in real live.

In the Netherlands we are already transferring IC patients over to Germany. They start doing this early because they can only transport 10 people per day because it needs dedicated ambulances.

But why do we actually need to do this? Well because we run things on the cheap. There was a target on upscaling which was never been met in the spring but the have not worked on it either i bet.

Medical personnel is also complaining that there is still not enough correct protective gear. This is after months of planning...

If you had been following the numbers diligently there is this tidbit:

For hospitalisations they used GGD data but those missed half of the cases so they daily admissions doubled overnight:

Quote
Het gemiddelde aantal patiënten dat per dag wordt opgenomen, is hierdoor binnen een dag opgelopen van 57 naar 134,3. En dat terwijl de signaalwaarde, die als een alarmbel functioneert, 40 is. Deze signaalwaarde is een van de belangrijkste indicatoren voor het kabinet om het risiconiveau van de corona-uitbraak in te schatten.

So it rose 57 to 134 while the alert score was 40 so they missed that sort of.

The first set was GGD data so regional health care numbers which they needed because it was decided to go by a regional approach which actually does not make that much sense if you see how small our regions are.

The more accurate data is from NICE or National Intensive Care Evaluation. Note they report all hospitalizations (as a predictor for IC load).

 https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6083846/ministerie-meldde-maandenlang-veel-te-weinig-opnames-coronapatienten.html

Oh and we also have a corona app because nice high tech solution.
So in theory it traces the contact points so if you were near somebody yesterday who is tested positive today you can be contacted.

But this does not really work for everyone. The parliament debated privacy at length but ignored the technological complexities.

If a bus driver has the app it might generate false positives. They are rather safe since the front part of the bus is closed (normally that is where you get in but we have an electronic system in all doors to check in and out which btw people started abusing early on). So the passengers don´t go near them. But if the app reports a contact they should stay home for up to 7 days depending on symptoms/testing.

And there are many more examples.

If it was to be meaningful it needs to be backed up by testing but even after month of preparation we failed to have enough testing and enough capacity to do the contact tracing...     
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9359 on: October 16, 2020, 06:06:04 PM »
... In Nazi Germany they called it Eugenics (Nationalsozialistische Rassenhygiene, Volksaufartung or Erbpflege); Trump calls it his 'plan'

And what of the next pandemic? ...

----------------------------

Trump Got the Best COVID Treatment. For the Rest of Us He Wants “Herd Immunity.”
https://truthout.org/articles/trump-got-the-best-covid-treatment-then-declared-intent-to-abandon-millions/

The Great Barrington Declaration. Sounds heavy, yeah? Thunder of drums, hushed silence, and behold: A jagged stack of cruelty passing itself off as science that claims “herd immunity” is the way to get out from under the grinding crisis of COVID-19. In truth, it sounds like just more preposterous ooze from the primordial swamp of the far right, but for the fact that the White House has embraced it as the Trump administration’s defining COVID policy.

The idea is as simple as it is ruthless: It’s just too hard to wear masks, social distance and test people. The preppers and tough guys who swell the ranks of Trump’s most loyal supporters didn’t make it through April before unspooling at “freedom” rallies because they wanted a slice of pizza and a haircut. This Trump-promoted self-harm has grown into the Great Barrington Declaration, a bag of deeply dangerous quackery.

The bump in the road is the millions who have to die of COVID before this level of immunity is achieved. The declaration advocates for what is an almost casual sort of genocide that would disproportionately affect people of color, the elderly, the immunocompromised, and the unlucky tens of thousands who are healthy yet would still succumb to the virus, as so many otherwise-healthy people have already.

The math is utterly appalling. At present, the U.S. has endured nearly 8 million COVID infections and almost 217,000 deaths. To reach the level of “herd immunity” advocated by the declaration, and now the White House, would require 156 million more people to become infected to reach the 50 percent herd immunity threshold. Under these circumstances, the death toll would skyrocket to more than a million people at the most conservative estimate.

The Lancet, among the most widely respected scientific journals on the planet, was swift and severe in its condemnation of the Great Barrington Declaration, and of any who would espouse its poisoned ethos:

Quote
The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable. This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of health-care systems to provide acute and routine care.

Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection, and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future. Such a strategy would not end the COVID-19 pandemic but result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination.

It would also place an unacceptable burden on the economy and health-care workers, many of whom have died from COVID-19 or experienced trauma as a result of having to practise disaster medicine.

“This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.” When The Lancet comes down the mountain in so unequivocal and plain-text a fashion, it is time to stand up and pay attention.

... Also, and not to be forgotten, this campaign push by Trump to consign millions to death as a means of papering over his failures is coming from a man who caught COVID, and likely only survived it because of the medical knowledge gleaned from those who were killed by his incompetence in those first bleak months of the crisis. “Trump is still breathing because of the medical data gathered from people he allowed to die”


Propaganda for Nazi Germany's T-4 Euthanasia Program: "This person suffering from hereditary defects costs the community 60,000 Reichsmark during his lifetime. Fellow German, that is your money, too."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_eugenics
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aktion_T4

Trump is alive because he got the best treatment science can deliver, buttressed by data gathered from the corpses he has already caused. Upon recovery, he declared his intent to abandon millions more to a choking, solitary death so he can keep his job and salvage his junkyard ego. Not for one second does he think this Great Barrington Declaration will do anybody but him any good. It gets him out from under, and that is all that matters.


Boxer is given his final reward

- Animal Farm - George Orwell


Read the excerpts from Chapter IX ANIMAL FARM
https://www.orwelltoday.com/horsedeath.shtml
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9360 on: October 16, 2020, 06:39:00 PM »
.. In Nazi Germany they called it Eugenics

I don´t see how that equates.

Can we try to keep it into context because the nazi name calling seems the modern way of political discussion in the USA but we have a forum for that below.



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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9361 on: October 16, 2020, 09:56:54 PM »
Remdesivir Has Very Little Effect On Covid-19 Mortality, WHO Finds
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/16/remdesivir-has-very-little-effect-on-covid-19-mortality-who-finds-trial-drug-coronavirus

Remdesivir, one of the big treatment hopes for Covid-19, has very little effect on preventing deaths, according to a large and comprehensive trial run by the World Health Organization.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1

A trial in the US had previously showed it reduced the length of stay in hospital. But the gold-standard Solidarity WHO trial, which was based on a far larger sample – 3,000 people on the drug, compared with as many who were not – showed remdesivir had little effect on deaths over 28 days.

With remdesivir, there were 300 deaths among people randomly assigned to the drug and 300 among others not on the drug. “It doesn’t guarantee there is exactly no effect, but it does very much constrain what it is possible to claim,” he said.

Gilead was told about the results on 23 September, 10 days before publication, and was given a first draft of the study on 28 September. The WHO said the company was told the outcome in advance as part of an agreement to provide the drug for free.

On 8 October, Gilead signed a contract for 500,000 doses of the drug with the European commission – which did not know the results – at a cost of €850m (£733m).

-------------------------------------

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1

CONCLUSIONS These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9362 on: October 16, 2020, 09:59:16 PM »
Pfizer Won’t Apply for Covid-19 Vaccine Authorization Before Mid-November, CEO Confirms
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/16/pfizer-wont-apply-for-covid19-vaccine-authorization-before-mid-november/

Pfizer confirmed Friday it expects to seek emergency authorization of its experimental vaccine against Covid-19, if it is effective, in the third week of November.

An analysis of the efficacy of the vaccine could be available sooner, the company said in an open letter from its CEO, Albert Bourla, but required safety data will take longer. The timelines included in the letter are not new, based on disclosures the company has previously made about the status of its vaccine effort with the German biotechnology firm BioNTech. But the need for Bourla, who had previously said a vaccine could be available by October, to make a public announcement emphasizes the tense political conditions surrounding the race for a vaccine.

The Food and Drug Administration slightly extended the timeline for any company to file for an emergency use authorization earlier this month when it communicated to companies that it would require two months of safety data to be collected on at least half of the patients in a company’s clinical trial. That, according to the Pfizer CEO’s letter, is now the gating step for the approval of a vaccine.

Bourla’s letter includes three new details:

— Pfizer and BioNTech will have two months of safety data on half the patients in their 44,000-patient vaccine study in the third week of November, based on current enrollment rates. This would allow the companies to file for an emergency use authorization.

— The independent data safety monitoring board, a panel of experts monitoring the study, will conduct interim analyses of the effectiveness of the vaccine. This is what originally drove the October timeline.

— Pfizer said that it “will share any conclusive readout” from these interim analyses, be they positive or negative, but that the study will continue until its conclusion.

The last point is unusual. These types of interim analyses are common, but usually result in a trial being stopped. This could mean that the study will continue, with half the patients receiving placebo, after it is known that the vaccine is effective.

Pfizer and BioNTech are likely to have early efficacy data before any other company running a vaccine trial. The study of their vaccine began on the same day as one from Moderna, but is designed in several ways to give an earlier readout. Two other vaccine trials have currently stopped enrolling new patients. Johnson & Johnson paused its vaccine trial earlier this week. AstraZeneca’s vaccine study has been paused in the U.S. for more than a month.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9363 on: October 16, 2020, 10:01:45 PM »
Putin Touts Second Dubious Approval of an Unproven COVID-19 Vaccine
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/10/putin-touts-second-dubious-approval-of-an-unproven-covid-19-vaccine/

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced the second dubious approval of a COVID-19 vaccine that has not been evaluated in clinical trials.

The vaccine, dubbed EpiVacCorona, is said to be a synthetic peptide-based vaccine, which uses fragments of the pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2 to spur protective immune responses in those vaccinated. It was developed by Vector State Virology and Biotechnology Center, a former Soviet bioweapons research lab.

Like the first Russian-approved vaccine, whether EpiVacCorona is actually safe and effective is completely unknown. In a televised news conference, Putin said that early trials involving 100 people were successful. But researchers have not published any safety or efficacy data from those trials. Russian health officials have said they are still reviewing the vaccine for “safety and quality” but declined to provide any additional information on the vaccine, data, or approval process.

Moreover, EpiVacCorona has not yet entered larger clinical trials necessary to determine safety and efficacy. Generally, data from late-stage clinical trials (Phase III trials) are required for standard regulatory approval. Those trials tend to involve tens of thousands of participants, who are closely followed for months to assess how effective the vaccine is at preventing infection and to monitor for rare side-effects.

Still, Putin touted the new vaccine in the news conference, revealing that Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova and the head of Russia’s consumer safety watchdog Anna Popova have both been given doses of EpiVacCorona as part of a clinical trial.

The dearth of data on EpiVacCorona echoes what was seen in August, when Russia approved its first COVID-19 vaccine, Sputnik V. That vaccine was also approved without published data after being tested in only 76 people. Early trial results have since been released on the vaccine, but researchers quickly noted oddities in the data. Sputnik V is now in large Phase III trials.

And, like EpiVacCorona, Putin announced the approval of Sputnik V while noting early, high-profile vaccinations. Putin revealed that one of his own daughters had received a dose of the vaccine.

Putin has many daughters?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9364 on: October 17, 2020, 12:16:42 AM »
Quote
NZ has extremely strict entry requirements, like Iceland, is in a remote location:

So the problem is not eliminating the virus. The problem is stopping people from countries that haven't eliminated the virus, like the US.

The problem is not geography. The problem is that the response is being sabotaged in key countries increasing infection rates all over the world.

Not even Iceland is successful: https://www.covid.is/data

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9365 on: October 17, 2020, 07:45:49 AM »
Iceland did quite allright for a long time and now they have a second wave. They can once again bring it down.  As long as they make the effort to eliminate this second wave they are succesful against C19. They had 1 death from C19 since last april. They are succesful.

Are they perfectly succesful? No. And that is ok as long as they keep fighting the virus and don't give up like the US or Sweden.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9366 on: October 17, 2020, 09:07:08 AM »
Positive retroaction made this comment in the freezing season thread.

Watch the jet stream outgrowth over Western Europe and the North East Atlantic
It's been several weeks since this has been happening without interruption, and the cold weather that it generated in France has drawn attention, we went from summer to winter without transition (in france we are living the coldest autumn period since 1974)!

France had a terrible reemergence of C19.  If Summer gave way to winter without transition as the poster implies, then this wave could be a preview of things to come if/when winter sets in like normal.

It may also be a perfect example of how climate change affects the biosphere and humanity in unnoticeable but significant ways.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Positive retroaction

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9367 on: October 17, 2020, 09:39:08 AM »
 Hey! Thank's Archimide
Just to give one's of the sources of what I said
(in French, sorry)
https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/climat/septembre-2020-un-mois-tres-contraste
And
https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/trois-semaines-dautomne-les-plus-fraiches-depuis-1974
I can said it's true, because I'm living it ( and I work outdoor too)  :D
Sorry, excuse my bad english

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9368 on: October 17, 2020, 09:46:41 AM »
Iceland did quite allright for a long time and now they have a second wave. They can once again bring it down.  As long as they make the effort to eliminate this second wave they are succesful against C19. They had 1 death from C19 since last april. They are succesful.

Are they perfectly succesful? No. And that is ok as long as they keep fighting the virus and don't give up like the US or Sweden.

Sweden is doing better now than Iceland (darkest on the attached map from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea ).

Also doing better than countries with curfews or where other basic freedoms have been suspended.

And that is without masks.

And certainly better than the US where there was a superspreader in the top political leadership.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9369 on: October 17, 2020, 11:01:48 AM »
U.K. Ballistic Missile Sub Crew Suffers COVID-19 Outbreak After Visit to U.S. Sub Base
https://news.usni.org/2020/10/14/u-k-ballistic-missile-sub-crew-suffers-covid-19-outbreak-after-visit-to-u-s-sub-base

More than 30 members of the crew of the U.K. Royal Navy ballistic-missile submarine HMS Vigilant (S30) have tested positive for COVID-19 following a port visit to the U.S. Navy’s East Coast SSBN hub, a U.S. official told USNI News.

The official confirmed reports in the British press that the crew of the submarine had violated isolation rules put in place to prevent outbreaks on the sensitive class of submarines. Those reports said sailors from the submarine left the Navy Submarine Base Kings Bay, Ga., and traveled as far as Cocoa Beach, Fla., — 200 miles away from the submarine base.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9370 on: October 17, 2020, 02:10:48 PM »
Wow I would never believe The Netherlands is suffering the same levels of generalized gross incompetence than we suffer in Spain. I feel your pain, bro.

Of course it also matters what we do in real live.

In the Netherlands we are already transferring IC patients over to Germany. They start doing this early because they can only transport 10 people per day because it needs dedicated ambulances.

But why do we actually need to do this? Well because we run things on the cheap. There was a target on upscaling which was never been met in the spring but the have not worked on it either i bet.

Medical personnel is also complaining that there is still not enough correct protective gear. This is after months of planning...

If you had been following the numbers diligently there is this tidbit:

For hospitalisations they used GGD data but those missed half of the cases so they daily admissions doubled overnight:

Quote
Het gemiddelde aantal patiënten dat per dag wordt opgenomen, is hierdoor binnen een dag opgelopen van 57 naar 134,3. En dat terwijl de signaalwaarde, die als een alarmbel functioneert, 40 is. Deze signaalwaarde is een van de belangrijkste indicatoren voor het kabinet om het risiconiveau van de corona-uitbraak in te schatten.

So it rose 57 to 134 while the alert score was 40 so they missed that sort of.

The first set was GGD data so regional health care numbers which they needed because it was decided to go by a regional approach which actually does not make that much sense if you see how small our regions are.

The more accurate data is from NICE or National Intensive Care Evaluation. Note they report all hospitalizations (as a predictor for IC load).

 https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6083846/ministerie-meldde-maandenlang-veel-te-weinig-opnames-coronapatienten.html

Oh and we also have a corona app because nice high tech solution.
So in theory it traces the contact points so if you were near somebody yesterday who is tested positive today you can be contacted.

But this does not really work for everyone. The parliament debated privacy at length but ignored the technological complexities.

If a bus driver has the app it might generate false positives. They are rather safe since the front part of the bus is closed (normally that is where you get in but we have an electronic system in all doors to check in and out which btw people started abusing early on). So the passengers don´t go near them. But if the app reports a contact they should stay home for up to 7 days depending on symptoms/testing.

And there are many more examples.

If it was to be meaningful it needs to be backed up by testing but even after month of preparation we failed to have enough testing and enough capacity to do the contact tracing...   

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9371 on: October 17, 2020, 02:16:39 PM »
New cases are climbing rapidly in the U.S. with outbreaks all across the country...still inadequate testing with very little contact tracing. Some states have positivity rates in excess of 20%. Deaths are climbing but at a slower rate as the jump in cases is highest in young adults. Current administration's herd immunity strategy continues. A couple of million more dead and we should get there.

(assuming significant immunity after recovery is a thing)

Republican Party is currently insisting that legislation for any additional stimulus package includes complete immunity from lawsuits from persons who contract COVID even in cases of negligence.

You got to love my country.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 02:39:25 PM by Shared Humanity »

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9372 on: October 17, 2020, 02:20:05 PM »
Iceland did quite allright for a long time and now they have a second wave. They can once again bring it down.  As long as they make the effort to eliminate this second wave they are succesful against C19. They had 1 death from C19 since last april. They are succesful.

Are they perfectly succesful? No. And that is ok as long as they keep fighting the virus and don't give up like the US or Sweden.

Sweden is doing better now than Iceland (darkest on the attached map from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea ).

Also doing better than countries with curfews or where other basic freedoms have been suspended.

And that is without masks.

And certainly better than the US where there was a superspreader in the top political leadership.

Yes, but Swedish have a number of interiorized social behaviors, and a respect and trust for the government which is quite exceptional. Plus: universal healthcare unlike the US.
Masks are helping elsewhere. Definitely they are helping in my neck of the woods. Madrid has reduced the incidence by half, while keeping hospitals away from collapse and schools and businesses open (although our city is perimetirally confined). Reproductive number has stayed around 0.9 for a while. All this while we suffered the same abrupt temperature drop than France, so no, Archmid: the Planet, the weather anomaly, the Arctic has probably nothing to do with France’s second round.

Other Spanish regions are now exploding in their second wave and these regions don’t have the exposure level that Madrid has reached, so it’s gonna be bad.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9373 on: October 17, 2020, 02:29:32 PM »
Quote
Sweden is doing better now than Iceland

Pffft. Sweden has 585 deaths per million while Iceland has 32 deaths per million. Iceland must really drop the ball here to catch up to Sweden, specially if the Swedish authorities actually believe they have any sort of herd immunity. Winter will be a harsh reality check...

Unless, they take charge and increase their safety measures before the epidemic becomes exponential. In that case, their carelessness back in April will still make them the losers but they won't repeat the mistake. That counts as good.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9374 on: October 17, 2020, 03:05:07 PM »
You know, I am a graybeard now (literally) and I remember getting measles and mumps and chicken pox, but except for Gay people we in the developed world really hadn't had to worry about communicable diseases for the last half century or so...until now. I hope this new era doesn't last another half century.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9375 on: October 17, 2020, 03:37:08 PM »
Reproductive number has stayed around 0.9 for a while. All this while we suffered the same abrupt temperature drop than France, so no, Archmid: the Planet, the weather anomaly, the Arctic has probably nothing to do with France’s second round.

Spain and France had similar Arctic weather influence and had similar COVID spikes.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9376 on: October 17, 2020, 03:55:49 PM »
Fortunately, while cases are climbing higher than the spring in many European countries, deaths are running at only about 10% what we experienced in the spring.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9377 on: October 17, 2020, 06:16:46 PM »
You know, I am a graybeard now (literally) and I remember getting measles and mumps and chicken pox, but except for Gay people we in the developed world really hadn't had to worry about communicable diseases for the last half century or so...until now. I hope this new era doesn't last another half century.
(At the risk of a slight excursion off-topic)
Seriously Tom? Do you believe HIV (and other STDs) affects only gay people?
Of course, the flu is a communicable disease too, but I'm sure that's not what you meant.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9378 on: October 17, 2020, 06:47:06 PM »
^ related

The rate of heterosexuals living with diagnosed HIV infection was 104 per 100,000 heterosexuals (CI: 101–108), or 0.1%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4516312/

Other communicable diseases

COVID-19
Gonorrhea
Syphilis
Hepatitis A
Hepatitis B
Hepatitis C
Influenza
Leprosy
Lyme Disease
Staph
Strep
TB
Measles
Hantavirus
MRSA
Pertussis
Rabies
Shingles
West Nile Virus
Zika
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9379 on: October 17, 2020, 07:37:30 PM »
Quote
Spain and France had similar Arctic weather influence and had similar COVID spikes.

Thats the wrong time period. Its the end of June on that graph where Spain started to grow again and it was the end of July when the UK started to grow again. The UK is where it is now because of what changed at the end of July, and it wasn't the weather, it was the government abandoning control of R.

Get back to the office (and spread COVID) or get sacked was the government attitude during August and September and they persuaded about half those working from home at the end of July to go back to commuting.

Eat out to help out (spreading COVID) was another big government publicity drive. Also go on holiday to these places where you won't catch COVID, oops, looks like we need you to quarantine when you come back, was another August theme.

Net effect, R very close to 1 at the end of July, pushed up to about 1.4 - 1.5 by late September, at which point they stopped the policies that were pushing R up, but didn't do anything to reverse them. It might have been 1.7 rather than 1.45 now if they hadn't stopped encouraging people to return to commuting, but we've had another 4 weeks of strong growth since they stopped accelerating it and no sign of the brakes being applied yet.

No flu though. 2 hospitalisations in England the week before last, and 1 last week. What isn't enough to control COVID does seem to be enough to control flu.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9380 on: October 17, 2020, 08:36:02 PM »
More and more of these are popping-up everywhere. Over here we have area's where hospitals will be full in 48 to 72 hours. May god have mercy with us simple sinners. https://abcnews.go.com/US/kansas-city-hospitals-overwhelmed-forced-turn-ambulances-covid/story?

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9381 on: October 17, 2020, 08:39:23 PM »
https://www.barrons.com/news/slovakia-to-test-whole-country-for-coronavirus-01602952505


Slovakia will test the whole population (5,4 million with antigen tests) within a five day timeframe

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9382 on: October 17, 2020, 08:57:01 PM »
^ corrected link

Kansas City Hospitals Overwhelmed, Some Forced to Divert Ambulances as COVID-19 Cases Jump
https://abcnews.go.com/US/kansas-city-hospitals-overwhelmed-forced-turn-ambulances-covid/story?id=73653825
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9383 on: October 17, 2020, 10:35:01 PM »
Covid-19 Rips Through European Countries Spared in the Spring, Straining Hospitals
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-czech-hospitals-idUKKBN26Z219
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-rips-through-european-countries-spared-in-the-spring-straining-hospitals-11602865379

WARSAW—A second wave of Covid-19 cases in Europe is tearing into countries that escaped the first, with health systems running short of the one resource they can’t run without: staff.

One of Poland’s largest hospitals, in the city of Krakow, installed enough beds and ventilators to treat a surge of Covid-19 patients, but has started to run out of workers in recent weeks as the number of national cases has doubled roughly every three days. Orthopedists, urologists, surgeons, neurosurgeons and gynecologists have donned scrubs to help treat those sick with the coronavirus.

“We are a modern hospital, very well equipped,” said Marcin Jędrychowski, director of the University Hospital in Krakow. “But none of this matters when you start to face a shortage of staff.”

Before the pandemic, Poland—home to generations of emigrants moving west—had the lowest ratio of health-care workers to citizens in the European Union: 237 workers for every 100,000 people, according to a 2018 study by Eurostat.

Now it has an outbreak growing faster than it can lay out and staff beds. In the western Polish town of Czarnków, workers were still constructing the walls of a Covid-19 ward when the first ambulances showed up with patients needing oxygen.



... Over the past two weeks, Czech Republic has been one of Europe’s hardest-hit countries on a per-capita basis, with nearly 10,000 people testing positive Thursday in a country of 11 million. On Thursday, its government said its hospitals would run out of space by the end of the month, and called in the military to construct a field clinic in a Prague convention hall.

Czech Republic was among Europe’s first to set up a tech-driven contact-tracing system, but the system has fallen apart as case counts have soared. Hungary is confronting a testing shortage, while testing centers in the Polish capital of Warsaw have faced dayslong delays.

“We have to build extra capacity as soon as possible,” Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis told reporters Thursday. “We have no time. The prognosis is not good.”

... thousands of medical students would be called up to help.



... “This is the consequence of the really good situation that we had,” said Alexandra Bražinová, an epidemiologist at the University of Comenius in Bratislava, Slovakia. “Many people would say, ‘Why do you try to scare us? Covid is not such a bad thing. I don’t know anybody who would be positive.’”

... Hundreds of Poles have held anti-mask-wearing protests, with some claiming the pandemic is a moneymaking conspiracy by drugmakers. At one hospital in Poland’s city of Wroclaw, visibly sick Covid-19-positive patients have refused to wear masks and shouted at staff, a doctor there said.

... Meanwhile, the resulting case count is taking its toll on staff. Until Aug. 20, only four doctors and three nurses in Czech Republic were infected with the virus, the country’s Institute of Health Information and Statistics said. Since then, 259 doctors and 433 nurses have tested positive.

At the Clinic of Infectious Diseases and Hepatology in Wroclaw, nurses have walked off their shifts and never returned. Staff have retired.

... Projections by Czech government experts have put the number of hospitalised at 4,500-10,750 by the end of October.

Of the country’s 4,011 intensive care beds 958 were free as of Monday, a national register showed, with 207 designated for COVID-19 patients. There were also 982 free beds with oxygen support for COVID cases.


... “We can physically add beds, I expect we would get equipment as well, but there is nowhere to find personnel,” said Martin Zatloukal, head of intensive care within Pribram’s general ward.

--------------------------------------



When adjusting for population, the number of new coronavirus infections in Europe has now overtaken that in the United States, with Europe reporting 187 new Covid-19 cases per million people, based on a seven-day average, compared with 162 new Covid-19 cases per million people in the U.S.

In total, Europe, which includes the 27 European Union countries and the United Kingdom, is reporting an average of roughly 97,000 new cases per day, up 44% from one week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

--------------------------------------

As Covid-19 Surges Across Europe, Countries Fear Drug Shortages
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-19-surges-across-europe-countries-fear-drug-shortages-n1243737

Less than 24 hours after confirming his positive Covid-19 diagnosis, President Donald Trump received the first of five doses of remdesivir, a drug that hinders the ability of the coronavirus to replicate within the human body.

That same day, at the Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands’ second largest city, pharmacist Nicole Hunfeld sent out an email she had hoped never to write.

“Beste allen,” it began. “Dear all, we have just received a message from the RIVM that there will be a shortage of remdesivir.”

The Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, or the RIVM, is tasked with distributing remdesivir in the Netherlands. ... But as infection rates began rising precipitously across the continent once more in early October, demand in this small, northern European nation outstripped supply.

“No new courses can be started until we hear that there is stock again,” Hunfeld’s email continued. “Would you like to share this information with on-call colleagues and physician assistants?”

----------------------------------------

Nearly 10% of Vatican's Swiss Guard Positive for COVID-19
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/health/2020/10/17/covid-news-winter-surge-no-vaccine-likely-before-election/3687384001/

The Vatican says someone who lives in the same Vatican hotel as Pope Francis has tested positive for the coronavirus, adding to the 11 cases of COVID-19 among the Swiss Guards, who serve as ceremonial guards at papal Masses, guard the Vatican City gates and protect the pope.

The Vatican said Saturday that the resident of the Domus Sanctae Marthae has moved out temporarily and is in isolation, as are all the people who came into direct contact with him.

Pope Francis chose to live there permanently after his 2013 election, shunning the Apostolic Palace, because he said he needed to be around ordinary people. The hotel has a communal dining room and chapel where Francis celebrates Mass each morning.

At 83 and with part of a lung removed when he was in his 20s due to illness, the pope would be at high-risk for COVID-19 complications.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9384 on: October 17, 2020, 11:29:27 PM »
A preliminary analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein N439K lineages and surveillance of receptor binding domain mutations.
https://www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/report-12-15th-october-2020/

A viral lineage carrying a mutation, N439K, a probable antigenic variant owing to its location in the receptor binding motif of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is now spreading in Europe (including 500+ infections in the UK). While there is no evidence that this variant will affect the efficacy of vaccines currently in development, it does highlight the need to establish a systematic approach for monitoring the appearance and spread of all variants and prioritising mutations of interest for further characterisation, in particular when selective pressure from mass vaccination programmes begins.

N439K was initially identified in a single lineage first detected in March 2020 and until recently was almost unique to Scotland where it infected more than 500 individuals (Figure 1).

This lineage also carries the D614G variant that has been associated with an increase in frequency among the population.

In line with the cessation in viral transmission in Scotland coincident with the lockdown in spring 2020, this UK lineage is now extinct and has not been observed since the 20th June in South Lanarkshire. However, N439K has now been identified in another fast growing lineage that has been sampled between late June and mid-August in Romania, Norway, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium, Germany and now in all parts of the UK

The apparent sudden rise in August/September appears to be linked to relaxation of  control measures, the degree of sampling in these countries and its recent emergence in the UK with a high sampling rate. N439K has also been detected in four linked infections in the US and sporadically in genome data from elsewhere.



Investigation of clinical outcomes from >1600 Scottish patients infected with either the lineage defined by 439K versus the wild-type lineage (439N) showed no significant difference in disease severity. Phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that the Scottish N439K lineage has a relatively fast growth rate in spreading through the population (analysis by Sam Lycett, Roslin Institute), but this is likely due to the D614G background  of this lineage (Ref 1).

Some spike amino acid replacements do seem to be changing the biology of the virus (e.g. D614G), although there is no current evidence that N439K, or other variants in the receptor binding motif (such as T478I and V483I, shown to have antigenic significance) have increased the potential for transmission or altered disease severity.

Importantly, these spike receptor binding domain variants appear to be relatively stable amino acid replacements that are not detrimental to viral fitness and are well tolerated in circulating lineages in the UK. This is a potential concern as vaccination programmes designed using these regions as targets begin to apply selective pressure on these lineages (see below for further discussion).

In addition to N439K, other mutations are being observed in the spike receptor binding motif: S477N (>300 UK sequences), T478I (>100), S494P (>20), E484Q (>10), S477I (>10), E484Q (>10) and others at lower frequencies (Figure 3).



Collectively these demonstrate that mutations in the spike receptor binding motif are tolerated. The circulation of the N439K lineages demonstrates these viruses do not necessarily exhibit any apparent fitness cost. This is potentially concerning as this region is soon to be under selective pressure from a range of vaccine programmes.

Some of the mutations in the receptor binding domain have been documented to confer resistance to neutralising antibodies and to influence interactions with the ACE2 receptor, which may facilitate the evolution of additional mutations in the surrounding region that can lead to viruses able circumvent the impact of those neutralizing antibodies. Support for this concern has been provide by laboratory experiments showing that it is possible to select for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein mutations in the receptor-binding domain (including N439K) that remain functional and able to bind ACE2 receptors but can confer resistance to monoclonal neutralising antibodies or convalescent plasma (Refs 2 and 3).

-----------------------------------------------

Covid Reinfections 'To Be Expected' as Virus Spreads, Say Government Scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/17/covid-reinfections-to-be-expected-as-virus-spreads-say-government-scientists

Government science advisers have warned that reinfections with Covid-19 are “to be expected” as the virus spreads, based on what is known about people’s immunity to other coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

Researchers on the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium said it was unclear at what point people who had recovered from the virus became vulnerable to reinfection, but cited emerging reports of second infections that suggested the timeframe was “relatively short”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/flurry-of-coronavirus-reinfections-leaves-scientists-puzzled

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/report-12-15th-october-2020/

The paper, released with a batch of Sage documents on Friday, suggests that large-scale genomic surveillance of the virus from positive test swabs could help identify cases of reinfection in the UK, but that such a system would require people to understand that once they have had Covid-19 they can be reinfected, and should get tested again if they develop symptoms.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1275/5897019

-------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9385 on: October 17, 2020, 11:51:21 PM »

The Oct. 11 classified report from the White House Coronavirus Task Force included a ranking of states based on their rates of new cases per population

The states in the red zone for cases in this week’s report (meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents in the week prior)

The White House at the time advised residents in red-zone counties to “wear a mask at all times outside the home,” limit gatherings to 10 people and not go to gyms or bars or eat inside at restaurants.

https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/states-in-red-zone-for-coronavirus-cases-grow-to-26/ 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9386 on: October 18, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
While the NH goes to the Covid Crapper..... Here in Melbourne we have managed to drag the cases per day to under 6 per day.
Restrictions are finally being eased..... things like 5km travel restrictions are now 25km.
Meeting people outdoors goes from  6 to 20 people.
Masks are still mandatory.
Some retail shops are allowed to open up again with restrictions on how many customers are allowed into the shop.

Sydney is having a very small spike but they are testing and contact tracing the crap out of it, so I don't expect that to progress far.

The weather is warming up nicely, which is becoming an obvious advantage in the containment of Covid.

Australia is setting up a system that allows people to travel inter-state again. Borders have been closed for a while to prevent the spread.
The most likely concept they have come up with, and is likely to be used, is to give each State a color code with rules for crossing borders.
Green - almost no Covid. Only require a temp check when crossing
Blue - some Covid at slightly concerning levels. Temp check and testing on the spot.
Red - Covid problem. 5 day isolation then test on day five.

New Zealand and Australia have begun air travel again, but not to Victoria/Melbourne for obvious reasons.
Sadly, 17 New Zealanders thought they would get off the international flight at Sydney then onto a flight from Sydney to Melbourne, which is not allowed under the terms that were set up. They were all caught and stopped at the airport and deport back to New Zealand.

If New Zealands insist of this type of thing, NZ will have Covid romping through their country in no time.

On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months. With the situation under control and a Govt that wants it to stay that way, this adventure will go ahead.

Europe and the US looks like a freaking mess, it is still blowing my mind that countries with wealth and resources are messing this situation so badly. I simply don't understand why.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9387 on: October 18, 2020, 01:10:11 PM »
Well i am with you on that (and i would love to join the bike ride. Long hikes and bike trips are a great way to get out  :) ).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9388 on: October 18, 2020, 02:03:28 PM »
On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months.

3000 km with a 7 yr old on bicycle? How long is it going to take?! Half a year??? Shouldn't they be in school?

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9389 on: October 18, 2020, 03:42:39 PM »
.. I couldn't imagine a better way of schooling .. safer and more educational than any amount of classroom prison . Enjoy ! :) b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9390 on: October 18, 2020, 04:17:42 PM »
On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months.

3000 km with a 7 yr old on bicycle? How long is it going to take?! Half a year??? Shouldn't they be in school?

That is school for an Australian! Australians are expected to be able to cope stuck abroad in a plague pit for the two years it takes to get a booking in the quarantine hotel. Basic training for this starts young ;)


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9391 on: October 18, 2020, 04:27:48 PM »
Sounds like a nice trip

Keep the tires inflated, stay hydrated (Gatorade), travel light and enjoy the scenery.

Mountains are the only thing that could slow you down. That, and duststorms, thunderstorms and 30 kph headwinds. And carrying a ton of gear.

Melbourne to Townsville

117 hours (2,402.8 km) by bike
476 hours by foot

It not impossible, I used to do 100 km/d when I worked without breaking a sweat. 200-300 km on weekends.

For a child, maybe 50 km/d - 60 days - 3000 km. Start slow.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 04:46:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9392 on: October 18, 2020, 04:46:22 PM »
I got up to 60 km per day 6 summers ago when I was back in school full time with a single half hour rest in the middle. The whole trip would take about 4 hours.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9393 on: October 18, 2020, 06:18:34 PM »
The Preexisting Conditions of the Coronavirus Pandemic
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/10/the-preexisting-conditions-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

A massive new accounting of the health of humans on Earth, collating and inferring stats on hundreds of diseases and injuries across 204 nations, has mostly good news. People are healthier, and they stay that way for longer. The bad news: That’s not true if those people are poor, are people of color, live in the United States, and there’s a pandemic.

Then they’re screwed. ...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/vol396no10258/PIIS0140-6736(20)X0042-0

-----------------------------------------

Rural Midwest Hospitals Struggling to Handle Virus Surge
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-rural-midwest-hospitals-struggling-virus.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9394 on: October 18, 2020, 07:27:57 PM »
Interview with a coronavirus clinician-researcher.  He talks about treatment approaches, and emphasizes the importance of starting active treatment early, and suggests combination treatments as being optimal.

Treat Covid-19 Early to Save Patients’ Lives, SARS Veteran Urges
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/treat-covid-19-early-to-save-patients-lives-sars-veteran-urges-1.1509497
___________________________________

He reflects my own thinking.  Initiating treatment early is crucial.  Treatment trials that wait until people are sick enough to be hospitalized to start treatment may be negative, even if using otherwise effective agents. 
It's dumbfounding that most published clinical trials to date have shared this basic flaw.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9395 on: October 18, 2020, 08:15:21 PM »
I agree with you, but do hospitals really have the excess capacity to bring in all COVID patients at an early stage to treat with dexamethasone, I.V. Remdesivir or an antibody cocktail? Do we even have the drugs; or the staff? And, in some cases, the drugs would interfere with the bodies own immune response.

And in the U.S. the the other question is "Who's going to pay for it?"
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 08:40:07 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9396 on: October 18, 2020, 08:34:40 PM »
I agree with you, but do hospitals really have the excess capacity to bring in all COVID patients at an early stage to treat with dexamethasone, I.V. Remdesivir or an antibody cocktail? Do we even have the drugs; or the staff? And, in some cases, the drugs would interfere with the bodies own immune response.

And in the U.S. the the other question is "Who's going to pay for it

From the cited article:  "They’re also using the antivirals ribavirin and Kaletra, although preliminary results released Thursday from a World Health Organization-led trial involving 11,266 patients in 30 countries found they don’t decrease patients deaths. Yuen said he wasn’t surprised by the results of the WHO’s study because the drugs weren’t administered soon after patients became ill.
'No antiviral will work if given late,' he said. The drugs were also administered singly, rather in combinations that could add to their impact, he said."

Many antiviral agents of possible benefit are oral.  Others can be administered by nebulization,  These are not difficult to have study participants take at home.

Immune plasma might be administered one time IV in the ER, with the subjects then sent home.

Even IV medications can be administered at home by a visiting nurse.  In some cases self-administration is feasible, with only periodic visits by a nurse.

I've been speaking here of running clinical trials, where financing is less of a problem.  However, when rolling out an outpatient treatment protocol, administered starting early in the course of disease, one might expect a dramatic reduction in hospitalizations.  The savings here might outweigh the costs by a large margin.

The devil, of course, is in the details.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9397 on: October 18, 2020, 09:34:56 PM »
The Financial Times has a new page with lots of interesting data compilations:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/    (free).

This was one of the figures, with their caption:

"On average, places that were hit hardest in the spring are suffering the most in the autumn"

So that does not show any evidence for herd immunity at the current levels of infection.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9398 on: October 18, 2020, 09:47:04 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9399 on: October 18, 2020, 10:09:56 PM »