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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 422577 times)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9450 on: October 22, 2020, 05:25:08 PM »
Ten more Twinsburg students positive in Oct 12 week.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9451 on: October 22, 2020, 06:26:45 PM »
The epidemic is exploding. It appears all the lockdowns have been for naught. Oh well. Lessons learned, LoL right?


The buffoon in charge of the U.S. and his administration still publicly question the efficacy of masks. The U.S. now has community transmission established across the entire country with no ability to implement widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantining. Nearly 230K dead and at least another couple of hundred thousand until we throw the asshole out of office and, hopefully, into prison.

You can't really blame the US president entirely on this matter.  The US citizens are equally to blame for their arrogant attitudes about mask wearing and entitlement issues.

They were gathering in large groups and protesting without masks, they kept going to crowded bars in Texas, etc etc.

The situation in the US is just as much the fault of US citizens as it is the leaders they elected into office.

If the US public had a desire for pro-science, fact-based leaders, who were less interested in profit and greed.  If the US public would elect and support leaders interested in community health and wellness, then US may have instead emerged quite differently from the pandemic.

The dystopian mask wearing society appears to now be a permanent fixture, as the virus is now endemic.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 07:19:59 PM by harpy »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9452 on: October 22, 2020, 07:36:14 PM »
There are anti-mask movements elsewhere. But no where else that I know of are they cheered on by the head of state.

So yeah, there's a lot of ignorance in the US. But to have the leader of the country encouraging it clearly puts a lot of the blame for it on him. (Not to mention the thousand other ways that the impotus has lead us to be NUMBER ONE in covid deaths...Making America Groan Again)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9453 on: October 22, 2020, 08:07:38 PM »
Czechia, lauded for its containment efforts in springtime in the media, had 15K new cases yesterday or ~0.15% of its total population....

I live in Central Europe. During springtime CEU did a full lockdown with hardly any cases at the same time as othe EU countries, but those countries by that time had many cases, while CEU only had a few clusters. That is why they seemed very successful.

This, however, led to a total lack of precaution. Life returned to normal from May: parties, weddings, family gatherings. Everything. No government bans on anything: festivals, cinemas, theater, etc, all could go on. No ban on mass events.

Both the population and politicians believed after spring that COVID is easy to beat and not dangerous. This led to our current situation. In my country based on my model I believe that cca 2% of the population is currently infected. We will likely have 10-15 thousand dead by spring out of 10 million. Mind you, we still have football games full of fans, weddings and whatnot

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9454 on: October 22, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »
I love how people in this thread are talking about how ignorant the US is when as a NYer I have a normal life once again and our city is functioning almost as it was one year ago. Not quite, but almost. There is no explosion in cases, the hospitals are fine, our primary wave was over in April, and the same has happened in most of the rest of the US.

The histrionic dissonance between my reality and that of many posters here is about to play out in real time as the great reckoning imminently descends on their locales. Survive, or not, I have attempted my best to help you prepare as best I could.

Czechia, lauded for its containment efforts in springtime in the media, had 15K new cases yesterday or ~0.15% of its total population....

I live in Central Europe. During springtime CEU did a full lockdown with hardly any cases at the same time as othe EU countries, but those countries by that time had many cases, while CEU only had a few clusters. That is why they seemed very successful.

This, however, led to a total lack of precaution. Life returned to normal from May: parties, weddings, family gatherings. Everything. No government bans on anything: festivals, cinemas, theater, etc, all could go on. No ban on mass events.

Both the population and politicians believed after spring that COVID is easy to beat and not dangerous. This led to our current situation. In my country based on my model I believe that cca 2% of the population is currently infected. We will likely have 10-15 thousand dead by spring out of 10 million. Mind you, we still have football games full of fans, weddings and whatnot


Czechia is at 1,828 dead today, up from 1,270 a week ago (+558). The previous weekly increase was +378.

That means 823 in next 7 days, +1219 after that, +1804 after that, and +2,670 after that. Then we hit 4K a week. The end of that week is 11/25. That is +10.4K deaths vs. today.  Hopefully that number will turn out to be high, but the case explosion may portend the opposite.

Thereafter, it would be +6K a week, +10K. Around that point I would expect a maximum and a plateau, if not around 1K daily deaths and maybe a bit longer of a plateau.

If NYC is to be followed, and NYC had 35K excess deaths, Czecha is probably going to end up with about 40-50K excess deaths by springtime if not more due to the worse circumstances around its primary wave. Due to demographics skewing older, and a crippled healthcare infrastructure, up to 100K deaths is not actually unfeasible, in the absence of a successful vaccine deployment by December, IMO.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 08:29:58 PM by bbr2315 »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9455 on: October 22, 2020, 08:20:17 PM »
There are anti-mask movements elsewhere. But no where else that I know of are they cheered on by the head of state.

The King of Sweden is not cheering. But Government here is not pushing masks. Very few are wearing them here. Yet we have fewer cases than most other countries in Europe.

Masks are mostly theater. It is much more important to stay at home when one is sick, to avoid crowds, to keep distance.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9456 on: October 22, 2020, 08:21:34 PM »
The epidemic is exploding. It appears all the lockdowns have been for naught. Oh well. Lessons learned, LoL right?


The buffoon in charge of the U.S. and his administration still publicly question the efficacy of masks. The U.S. now has community transmission established across the entire country with no ability to implement widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantining. Nearly 230K dead and at least another couple of hundred thousand until we throw the asshole out of office and, hopefully, into prison.

You can't really blame the US president entirely on this matter.  The US citizens are equally to blame for their arrogant attitudes about mask wearing and entitlement issues.

Words matter. Words by the president matter more than the shit I am typing here. Hair Furor has attacked the scientists since day one and still questions whether persons should wear masks.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9457 on: October 22, 2020, 08:22:35 PM »
I think Sweden is about 5 superspreaders from a breakout. I might be wrong though.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9458 on: October 22, 2020, 08:23:29 PM »
The epidemic is exploding. It appears all the lockdowns have been for naught. Oh well. Lessons learned, LoL right?


The buffoon in charge of the U.S. and his administration still publicly question the efficacy of masks. The U.S. now has community transmission established across the entire country with no ability to implement widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantining. Nearly 230K dead and at least another couple of hundred thousand until we throw the asshole out of office and, hopefully, into prison.

You can't really blame the US president entirely on this matter.  The US citizens are equally to blame for their arrogant attitudes about mask wearing and entitlement issues.

Words matter. Words by the president matter more than the shit I am typing here. Hair Furor has attacked the scientists since day one and still questions whether persons should wear masks.
The US has had a successful COVID strategy and overall deaths were minimized as an approach following Sweden was taken. Or sheer incompetence allowed the primary wave to end by May, as in NYC. Some Midwestern states with Democrat governors pursued a European strategy and they are now paying the price but as a whole the US strategy re: COVID appears to be one of the most effective in the developed NHEM outside of Taiwan, Singapore, and city states.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9459 on: October 22, 2020, 08:24:11 PM »
There are anti-mask movements elsewhere. But no where else that I know of are they cheered on by the head of state.

The King of Sweden is not cheering. But Government here is not pushing masks. Very few are wearing them here. Yet we have fewer cases than most other countries in Europe.

Masks are mostly theater. It is much more important to stay at home when one is sick, to avoid crowds, to keep distance.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9460 on: October 22, 2020, 08:33:46 PM »
As someone who lived through 50 days of not leaving their apartment I can attest it is impossible to live properly and do anything at all without risking exposure and COVID is so contagious that any f*ck up means you can get it if the primary wave is still underway at that time.

Touch your finger to your mask and your eye, you can get it. Walk past someone indoors not wearing goggles, etc. It is SO contagious the only way to not get it is to stay indoors alone and oftentimes by the time that happens enough people have it in everyday life where those indoors with loved ones give it to each other, or that continued necessary functioning of society results in spreading until the wave terminates due to herd immunity.

Only Stalin-esque interventions at VERY EARLY stages stave off otherwise, these have only been successful in Taiwan, Uruguay, NZ, and Victoria. None of these places have been replicated elsewhere, the successful model for developed countries is the Swedish or US approach. The half-baked lockdowns in Chile and Argentina only obliterated their economies and probably did little to nothing to stem the overall death tolls, in Argentina it is STILL rising rapidly but will probably begin dropping shortly.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9461 on: October 22, 2020, 08:58:12 PM »
Fotoshopped?

In that second frame, why would the cloud stop 5 cm in front of the face on the left?

That looks like a doctored image to me.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9462 on: October 22, 2020, 09:48:03 PM »
I know I promised I wouldn't write here anymore. I just want to post this video by an expert who IMO has been consistently non-combative from the very start:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9463 on: October 23, 2020, 04:50:36 AM »
Fotoshopped?

In that second frame, why would the cloud stop 5 cm in front of the face on the left?

That looks like a doctored image to me.

In hospitals, healthcare staff wear masks to protect patients. Masks work to slow the spread of airborne disease. It is that simple.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9464 on: October 23, 2020, 04:59:40 AM »
From NYT:

Iowa Never Locked Down. Its Economy Is Struggling Anyway.


President Trump has blamed Democratic officials’ rules for impeding the recovery. But even where restrictions are few, business is far from normal.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9465 on: October 23, 2020, 05:23:07 AM »
I dont understand how anyone can say the USA has handled the pandemic well when they have so many dead people and so many cases and it is getting much worse by the say.

From the top of my head, the US has 5% of the population and 20% of the deaths. On what planet is that handling it well?

It is mind numbing having to listen to people talk about Covid as if it isn't much to worry about... it is frustrating to listen to people talk about how well the US has handled it when it has clearly screwed the entire thing up from day one.

Over and over again the same thing happens..... places that take it seriously and combat it with masks, testing and tracing have far fewer deaths than those that don't. Their economies, which seems to be the most important thing, are also doing better because the virus is taken on and vastly reduced.
The countries, like the US and Europe, who don't take all that seriously end up with many dead people, many injured people, their economies will be worse for the experience and yet... people still think those regions of the world are doing a good job.

It truly boggles my mind. What needs to happen to convince people of what is in front of their very eyes?
How many people need to die this year before those who think it isn't much, decide it is serious? 1.5 million? 2 million? Is it beyond comprehension that there will be 3 million dead by Dec 31?

I still think 2 million is a stretch, but as each days goes by, and I see the exponential growth that is happening, 2 million isn't looking like much of a stretch anymore.
But to me, I am beginning to wonder more about the people who have damaged bodies post virus and thinking that is going to be a significant challenge if Covid gets to run rampant through the US and Europe properly.

Lockdowns suck, I am in day 110 of one and it has weeks left as it is lifted slowly. It is the second time this year, but compare out 800 dead people to the multiple thousands the UK have (110 days ago Victoria had the same number as the UK), I pick what we have done over the UK every single time.

In a few weeks we will be mostly free to move around again, the economy will begin to recover somewhat and life keeps going. In Europe and the USA, I wonder what the situation will be like in 110 days doing what they are doing at the moment......

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9466 on: October 23, 2020, 10:36:56 AM »
Masks work at "known" failure rates. Research has proven once and again that when not worn, masks do not work.

Masks have been in use globally for hundreds of years across multiple fields. Their effectiveness is known and proven by multiple lines of evidence. PEOPLE WORK WITH MASKS FOR A LIVING AND ARE PROTECTED

That people are questioning something as obvious as masking is evidence of the power of misinformation.

If you have evidence that masks do not work post it on the masks thread, but I know all you have is the absence of evidence as evidence.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9467 on: October 23, 2020, 10:56:33 AM »
Let's age this video to see what happens.



A snapshot of the situation can be obtained by noticing both the scale and shape of new cases in Norway vs Sweden. Particularly interesting is the apparent slope of the recent surge.

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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9468 on: October 23, 2020, 12:18:32 PM »
Fotoshopped?

In that second frame, why would the cloud stop 5 cm in front of the face on the left?

That looks like a doctored image to me.

In hospitals, healthcare staff wear masks to protect patients. Masks work to slow the spread of airborne disease. It is that simple.

So you agree that this image was photoshopped.

The simple thing is that in hospitals one has "surgical masks".
Masks for surgery.
When one wants to avoid that pathogens infect the inside of bodies.
When the medical staff wants to avoid breathing the spray and splash from surgical procedures.

The Danes wanted to do a controlled study:
https://research.ku.dk/search/result/?pure=en%2Fpublications%2Fface-masks-for-the-prevention-of-covid19rationale-and-design-of-the-randomised-controlled-trial-danmask19(37680f4d-a7e5-4aeb-a791-f294d4b7b4dc)%2Fexport.html

Now he cannot get it published, as reported by Berlingske. For an account in English, I will give a link to Russia Today:
https://www.rt.com/news/504219-danish-mask-study-rejected-coronavirus/


zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9469 on: October 23, 2020, 02:22:33 PM »
Please note that Sweden does not publish daily case numbers any more, so there appear to be high daily peaks. Based on Worldometer numbers, both Sweden and Norway, as well as Denmark and Finland, rank somewhere mid-range with respect to cases per million inhabitants. Same with deaths per million. All countries are experiencing a growth in case numbers. Deaths somewhat lag behind.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9470 on: October 23, 2020, 03:00:23 PM »
Masks work at "known" failure rates. Research has proven once and again that when not worn, masks do not work.

Masks have been in use globally for hundreds of years across multiple fields. Their effectiveness is known and proven by multiple lines of evidence. PEOPLE WORK WITH MASKS FOR A LIVING AND ARE PROTECTED

That people are questioning something as obvious as masking is evidence of the power of misinformation.

If you have evidence that masks do not work post it on the masks thread, but I know all you have is the absence of evidence as evidence.

What are you talking about?  Masks, like surgical masks, N95 masks, respirators?

If you're referring to the shitty blue masks that are mass produced, they offer little protection for the wearing person.  Only an  N95 mask or greater will offer substantial protection for the wearer from this virus. 

Shitty blue mass produced masks only work when literally every single person is wearing one.  In the US that's basically never, so it's no wonder cases are increasing again.

In America, the anti-mask wearer's put everyone else at risk.  One must protect themselves from Americans, do not get the false sense of security that the blue non-n95 mask if offering any protection. 

« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 03:14:23 PM by harpy »

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9471 on: October 23, 2020, 03:12:24 PM »
Masks work at "known" failure rates. Research has proven once and again that when not worn, masks do not work.

Masks have been in use globally for hundreds of years across multiple fields. Their effectiveness is known and proven by multiple lines of evidence. PEOPLE WORK WITH MASKS FOR A LIVING AND ARE PROTECTED

That people are questioning something as obvious as masking is evidence of the power of misinformation.

If you have evidence that masks do not work post it on the masks thread, but I know all you have is the absence of evidence as evidence.

Archmid your posts are starting to get hysterical.

What are you talking about?  Masks, like surgical masks, N95 masks, respirators?
[...]
Maybe he is talking about this :)
A pest mask (ca. 1700) from a museum in Ingolstadt where Dr. Frankenstein studied medicine.
http://www.dmm-ingolstadt.de/aktuell/objektgeschichten/pestarztmaske.html

https://www.quora.com/How-effective-were-the-costumes-worn-by-plague-doctors-at-protecting-them-from-being-infected
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 05:12:50 PM by Florifulgurator »
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9472 on: October 23, 2020, 03:19:55 PM »
Shitty blue mass produced masks only work when literally every single person is wearing one.  In the US that's basically never, so it's no wonder cases are increasing again.

Exactly. If everyone followed mask wearing guidelines, those shitty blue masks would slow spread. Since slowing spread is essential to getting the economy back open, it is mind boggling to me that so many people refuse to wear them.

I no longer patronize any businesses that do not require their employees and customers to wear masks. Fortunately, in Chicago, this is extremely rare. Illinois numbers are rising quickly but Chicago is not the major contributor. Rural Illinois (yes...Trump country) is driving the increase. Chicago's R nought has risen over the last few weeks and now stands at 1.21. It was below 1 during the summer.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9473 on: October 23, 2020, 03:36:33 PM »
With regards to opening up the economy, There are no closure orders in Illinois. All businesses are allowed to conduct business and restaurants and bars are open in Chicago although at 50% capacity. But here is the thing. You cannot force persons to go out to there favorite Italian restaurant and persons will not feel entirely safe until widespread community transmission has been stopped.

The U.S. has failed completely in accomplishing this and widespread community transmission is occurring across the country. Want to have a robust economy? You must first fix this fucking pandemic.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9474 on: October 23, 2020, 03:40:16 PM »

Shitty blue mass produced masks only work when literally every single person is wearing one.   

Nonsense. This is a numbers game and if 90% of the people are wearing them that greatly reduces the likelihood that an unmasked, asymptomatic spreader is among the group, pushing R0 down.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9475 on: October 23, 2020, 03:47:47 PM »
One other thing, due to widespread compliance by people in Chicago with regards to social distancing, mask wearing and hand washing, the primary source of new cases is within families. When with family people let their guard down. The city has issued advisories asking that families do not hold huge holiday gatherings. My extended family has always had a huge Christmas gathering at a restaurant...more than 50 people. We just held it early, last weekend, in my nieces side yard. Masks were worn, hand sanitizer was available and social distancing was practiced. We all had a blast.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9476 on: October 23, 2020, 03:51:36 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World and USA graphs.

7 day trailing averages of daily new cases and deaths on the rise.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9477 on: October 23, 2020, 03:54:57 PM »
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, (just north of Chicago where I live) the pandemic is now out of control with a positivity test rate at 20%. Several months ago, the Republican Party (yes...Hair Furor's party) sued the Democratic governor about business closures and got the Wisconsin Supreme Court to rule that the Governor had no authority to issue any orders to address the pandemic.

That's going well.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9478 on: October 23, 2020, 03:58:51 PM »
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, (just north of Chicago where I live) the pandemic is now out of control with a positivity test rate at 20%. Several months ago, the Republican Party (yes...Hair Furor's party) sued the Democratic governor about business closures and got the Wisconsin Supreme Court to rule that the Governor had no authority to issue any orders to address the pandemic.

That's going well.
If certain people had not denied that seasonality of transmission and mortality there could have been constructive calls for lockdowns in concordance with seasons, but I would say nuance is lost on some in this country and it is easier to cast blame and aspersions than take any accountability.

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9479 on: October 23, 2020, 04:14:48 PM »
I know I promised I wouldn't write here anymore. I just want to post this video by an expert who IMO has been consistently non-combative from the very start:
[video]
"Herd immunity has always been a concept embraced by the political left" -- Is that non-combative? LOL.

It has long been clear scientifically that Covid herd immunity is not an option: 1) Too many deaths 2) Likely not even a thing (E.g. there's no herd immunity against common cold coronaviruses.)

Oh, he signed the Oregon Petition Great Barrington declaration. Like Emeritus Bhakdi. LOL


The Lancet on herd immunity:
Quote
[...]This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.

Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity3 and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of health-care systems to provide acute and routine care. Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection,4 and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future. Such a strategy would not end the COVID-19 pandemic but result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination. It would also place an unacceptable burden on the economy and health-care workers, many of whom have died from COVID-19 or experienced trauma as a result of having to practise disaster medicine. Additionally, we still do not understand who might suffer from long COVID.3 Defining who is vulnerable is complex, but even if we consider those at risk of severe illness, the proportion of vulnerable people constitute as much as 30% of the population in some regions.8 Prolonged isolation of large swathes of the population is practically impossible and highly unethical. Empirical evidence from many countries shows that it is not feasible to restrict uncontrolled outbreaks to particular sections of society. Such an approach also risks further exacerbating the socioeconomic inequities and structural discriminations already laid bare by the pandemic. [...]
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

Some more:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/17/covid-reinfections-to-be-expected-as-virus-spreads-say-government-scientists
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4


The herd immunity poster child to watch is Manaus in Brazil. First, hospitals and cemeteries were overflowing. Shocking images in the news. Then, numbers dropped and there was hope for herd immunity. Meanwhile (Sept. 27) it looks cases are rising again:
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthcoronavirus-brazil-manaus/in-brazils-amazon-a-covid-19-resurgence-dashes-herd-immunity-hopes-idUKL2N2GM0SC

More data (Oct. 9) here: https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb
Quote
Hotspots of resurgent Covid erode faith in ‘herd immunity’
Infection rates rise again in cities where some hoped a form of protection had been achieved[...]
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9480 on: October 23, 2020, 04:35:40 PM »
I dont understand how anyone can say the USA has handled the pandemic well when they have so many dead people and so many cases and it is getting much worse by the say.

From the top of my head, the US has 5% of the population and 20% of the deaths. On what planet is that handling it well?

Over and over again the same thing happens..... places that take it seriously and combat it with masks, testing and tracing have far fewer deaths than those that don't. Their economies, which seems to be the most important thing, are also doing better because the virus is taken on and vastly reduced.
The countries, like the US and Europe, who don't take all that seriously end up with many dead people, many injured people, their economies will be worse for the experience and yet... people still think those regions of the world are doing a good job.

It truly boggles my mind. What needs to happen to convince people of what is in front of their very eyes?


Those areas that were more remote, like Japan, Australia and New Zealand, had an easier time locking down.  I agree that the U.S. was not great, but neither were many other countries.  Compare the death rate (deaths per million people) of select western countries:

Belgium:   912
Spain:      738
U.S.:        689
U.K.:        652
Italy:        612
Sweden:   586
France:     524
Netherlands:  404
Canada:    261
Switzerland:   237
Germany:  120
Austria:     106

Were the Germanic countries that much better at limiting deaths than the others?

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9481 on: October 23, 2020, 05:12:17 PM »
Not great as in only bronze medal for deaths worldwide...

And that while their number is very likely an undercount.
I think Belgium always used a much wider definition for its official covid cases and so probably for deaths too.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9482 on: October 23, 2020, 05:22:21 PM »
And masks can be discussed in this thread (not here):
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.msg286840.html#msg286840

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9483 on: October 23, 2020, 07:40:50 PM »

Shitty blue mass produced masks only work when literally every single person is wearing one.   

Nonsense. This is a numbers game and if 90% of the people are wearing them that greatly reduces the likelihood that an unmasked, asymptomatic spreader is among the group, pushing R0 down.

At the beginning of the first wave, i had a conversation with somebody at work. During that conversation i felt a droplet of his spit falling on my lip. Lucky he was not infected, otherwise that would have been a big load i think. Maybe the blue masks don't stop everything, it would have stopped that droplet. And we have plenty of noice at work, so we have to stand very close to each other to speak. So now we all wear one of these blue masks the whole day.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9484 on: October 23, 2020, 08:57:30 PM »
Too Many Countries In 'Exponential' Virus Surge: WHO
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-countries-exponential-virus-surge.html

The northern hemisphere is facing a crucial moment in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization said Friday, with too many countries witnessing an exponential increase in coronavirus cases.

"The next few months are going to be very tough and some countries are on a dangerous track," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual press conference.

"Too many countries are seeing an exponential increase in COVID-19 cases and that is now leading to hospitals and intensive care units running close to or above capacity—and we're still only in October.

... Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's COVID-19 technical lead, said the situation was "very worrying" in Europe, which clocked up more than half the new cases registered in the world over the last 24 hours.

"We're not only seeing increases in case numbers in many cities across Europe; the capacity for ICU (intensive care units) is going to be reached in the coming weeks," she said.

------------------------------------



------------------------------------

The U.S. reported more than 71,600 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, a daily count nearing record highs set in late July as outbreaks continue to take hold in the Midwest, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Six U.S. states hit record highs of daily new deaths on a seven-day average Thursday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

Kansas reported a record seven-day average of 15 deaths, a 24% rise from last week. The record seven-day average of new deaths in Wisconsin was 21, up 16% and Oklahoma reported 11 new deaths, a 34% increase from the prior seven-day average.

New deaths in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming hit a seven-day average of 7, 6, and 1, respectively.

Thirteen states — including Ohio, Wisconsin, Oklahoma and Kentucky — also set records for seven-day average hospitalizations.

-----------------------------------

Down Syndrome Tied to 10 Times the Risk of COVID-19 Death
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/down-syndrome-tied-10-times-risk-covid-19-death

------------------------------------

Study Finds Between 130,000 and 210,000 US Deaths Could Have Been Avoided
https://ncdp.columbia.edu/custom-content/uploads/2020/10/Avoidable-COVID-19-Deaths-US-NCDP.pdf

The Trump administration’s botched response to the pandemic has led to between 130,000 and 210,000 preventable deaths, according to a new report from a team of disaster preparedness and public health experts.

“The United States has turned a global crisis into a devastating tragedy,” read a report released Thursday by researchers at Columbia University. “We estimate that at least 130,000 deaths and perhaps as many as 210,000 could have been avoided with earlier policy interventions and more robust federal coordination and leadership.

The team calculated avoidable deaths by estimating how many people would have died in other nations, like Japan and South Korea, if they had the same population as the US, and comparing those figures to the US death rate.

“Many of the underlying factors amplifying the pandemic’s deadly impact have existed long before the novel coronavirus first arrived in Washington state on January 20th – a fractured healthcare system, inequitable access to care, and immense health, social and racial disparities among America’s most vulnerable groups,” the researchers noted. “Compounding this is an Administration that has publicly denigrated its own public health officials – and science more generally -- thereby hamstringing efforts by its vaunted public health service to curb the pandemic’s spread.”

-------------------------------------

Covid-19 Blood Plasma Therapy Has Limited Effect, Study Finds
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/23/covid-19-blood-plasma-therapy-has-limited-effect-study-finds

A study, which is published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) on Friday, suggests “convalescent plasma” has only limited effectiveness and fails to reduce deaths or stop the progression to severe disease:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3939

The research involved 464 adults with moderate Covid-19 who were admitted to hospitals in India between April and July. Approximately half received two transfusions of convalescent plasma, 24 hours apart, alongside standard care, while the control group received standard care only.

One month later, 19% of those who received the plasma had progressed to severe disease or had died of any cause, compared with 18% in the control group. Plasma therapy did, however, seem to reduce symptoms, such as shortness of breath and fatigue, after seven days.

The Indian researchers agreed that further studies using high antibody levels may find it to be more effective. An interim analysis of 136 Covid-19 patients in a trial at Houston Methodist hospital in Texas suggested a significant reduction in deaths among patients who received plasma with high levels of antibodies early in the course of their disease.

Followup data from all 351 patients in the Texas study has been published as a preprint and supports this conclusion, although plasma transfusion later in the course of the disease had no significant effect on death rates regardless of antibody levels.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.02.20206029v1.full.pdf

---------------------------------------

Sinclair's Eric Bolling: [to Trump]... "With COVID, is there anything that you think you could have done differently, if you had a mulligan or a do-over on one aspect of the way you handled it, what would it be?"

Trump: "Not much."

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1318914453392531457

---------------------------------------------

Half a Million Americans Could Die of Covid by End of February, Study Forecasts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/23/coronavirus-half-a-million-deaths-study-forecasts

... More than 511,000 lives could be lost by 28 February next year, modeling led by scientists from the University of Washington found. This means that with cases surging in many states, particularly the upper midwest, what appears to be a third major peak of coronavirus infections in the US could lead to nearly 300,000 people dying in just the next four months.

Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States, Nature Medicine, (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9

------------------------------------------------

Dr Anthony Fauci said the White House coronavirus task force’s meetings have become less frequent, even as infections rise in dozens of US states.

Amid a COVID case surge all over the U.S., Dr. Fauci says Trump hasn’t been to a WH COVID task force meeting in several months.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1319695629807947776

--------------------------------------------
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 09:38:36 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9485 on: October 23, 2020, 11:02:05 PM »
Hospitalization Data Flawed In Missouri, Perhaps Elsewhere
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-hospitalization-flawed-missouri.html

With the number of coronavirus patients requiring hospitalization rising at alarming levels, Missouri and perhaps a handful of other states are unable to post accurate data on COVID-19 dashboards because of a flaw in the federal reporting system.

Since Tuesday, the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Service's coronavirus dashboard has posted a message that the total number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 has been underreported since Oct. 17. The note blamed "challenges entering data" to the portal used by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for collecting daily hospitalizations around the country.

It wasn't immediately clear on Friday how many states are impacted since some states rely on their own hospitalization counts, not HHS data collection. HHS did not immediately respond to phone and email messages seeking comment.

But The COVID Tracking Project said in a blog post that it has "identified five other states with anomalies in their hospitalization figures" that could be tied to the HHS reporting problem.

https://covidtracking.com/blog/weekly-update-oct-22

The project noted that the number of reported intensive care unit patients in Kansas had decreased from 80 to one without explanation. It said Wisconsin's hospitalization figures stayed unexpectedly flat while other indicators worsened. And it said Georgia, Alabama, and Florida reported only partial updates to hospitalization data.

.... Missouri Hospital Association Senior Vice President Mary Becker said the HHS system, known as TeleTracking, recently implemented changes; some measures were removed from the portal, others were added or renamed. Some reporting hospitals were able to report using the new measures, but others were not, and as a result, the system crashed, she said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9486 on: October 23, 2020, 11:41:45 PM »
And that while their number is very likely an undercount.
I think Belgium always used a much wider definition for its official covid cases and so probably for deaths too.

While I suspect the number of cases is an undercount, I seriously doubt that the number of deaths have been undercounted.  It is much harder to hide deaths.  If anything, the U.S. has overcounted the number of deaths, combining all those who did of COVID with those who died with COVID.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9487 on: October 24, 2020, 03:16:00 AM »
U.S. hits all-time high in daily new coronavirus cases

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/23/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

Friday’s tally — the first above 80,000 — comes as many states break their records for new infections. The average number of covid-19 hospitalizations has jumped in at least 38 states over the past week, a trend that cannot be explained by more widespread testing, according to data tracked by The Washington Post.

Fourteen states have also reported new highs in hospitalized covid-19 patients in the past seven days: Kentucky, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Iowa, Utah, Montana, West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas. Health experts say the current wave is setting the stage for an even greater surge heading into colder months.

To put this into perspective, today South Korea hit 25,698 cases in total.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 03:23:33 AM by Shared Humanity »

GrauerMausling

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9488 on: October 24, 2020, 08:31:22 AM »
Regarding the numbers in the US. Is there somewhere a figure showing the number of tests done and the positive rate of the tests? I'm asking because I think that the number of tests done might be lower than the maximum (Trump: test less -> get fewer cases) and still the number is very high. Basically my question is, can we compare today's numbers with those from the summer?

Here in Germany they still insist that the current numbers cannot be compared to the spring numbers because they test more, which is kind of true, but the worrying part is that the test positive rate is going up steeply. It was way below 1% in summer and the latest number now is 3.6 %.

Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9489 on: October 24, 2020, 10:33:14 AM »
I'd guess that probably test availability plays a significant role in the US numbers,  but the rise is also probably at least partly due to a mix of COVID precaution fatigue, colder weather, and maybe a bit due to political rallies.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9490 on: October 24, 2020, 10:36:48 AM »

Here in Germany they still insist that the current numbers cannot be compared to the spring numbers because they test more, which is kind of true, but the worrying part is that the test positive rate is going up steeply. It was way below 1% in summer and the latest number now is 3.6 %.

Those numbers are pathetic. We have a 15% positivity rate! Now, that is something! The dead are piling up. No matter. Stadiums are full with a major soccer event scheduled for the weekend. This is how real tough nations, like us, the Hungarians do it.
(first chart: positivity rate, second: daily deaths and 7 day moving average of deaths)

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9491 on: October 24, 2020, 01:10:37 PM »
Speculations for the 2.0 wave severity in Europe
- Seasonality counts
- Much more testing, better hospital treatments (CFR one order of magnitude below March/April)
- Early september school contagions started, underreported as most kids and teens do not show symptoms. After 30+ days to get exponential growth and substantial numbers, now parents & family become COVID-19 infected en masse and those do call the doctor or go to the hospital.
- Mutation(s) of SARS-Cov-2 more contagious than D614G.
- Most Europe was well protected in wave 1.0, now regions still far from herd immunity suffer second wave badly. To support this, Madrid had a 1.5 wave started in summer, now cases decreasing while almost rest of Spain is spiking up. Maybe Madrid has another comeback but at the time is not.

- Any more ideas?...

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9492 on: October 24, 2020, 01:12:01 PM »
Regarding the numbers in the US. Is there somewhere a figure showing the number of tests done and the positive rate of the tests?

There's the covid tracking project. They don't quote positivity due to states meaning different things by "tests" etc., but you can look at the totals and divide one sum of apples and oranges by another of avocadoes and tomatoes.

https://covidtracking.com/

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9493 on: October 24, 2020, 01:39:02 PM »

- Early september school contagions started, underreported as most kids and teens do not show symptoms. After 30+ days to get exponential growth and substantial numbers, now parents &

There are differences in the symptoms with age, and the testing strategy is dominated by the adult symptoms, so children are more likely to be missed.

For a summary see https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/early-covid-signs
There are several other relevant posts there too if you want a bit more detail around who gets what symptom when.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9494 on: October 24, 2020, 02:10:19 PM »
29 (72.5%) of the 40 critical drugs for COVID-19 patients are experiencing shortages, according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP).

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/report-details-covid-19-drug-shortages-and-solutions

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9495 on: October 24, 2020, 02:13:16 PM »
^ ... and it's only October  ???
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9496 on: October 24, 2020, 02:38:16 PM »
Poland's President Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://apnews.com/article/international-news-andrzej-duda-poland-dd3bb69dba2e1f1439087376ac7061b1

Polish President Andrzej Duda has tested positive for the coronavirus, a spokesperson announced on Saturday.

... Duda’s key constitutional roles include guiding foreign policy and signing legislation. But many of his duties are ceremonial, and most of the country’s day-to-day governance is the responsibility of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s government.

The fast spread of the virus is pushing Poland’s strained health system to the breaking point. Doctors say patients are now dying not only from COVID-19, but from other illnesses that overwhelmed hospitals are not able to treat.

The government is preparing to open field hospitals but it is not clear where it will find the doctors and nurses to staff them.

Duda on Friday visited the National Stadium in Warsaw, which is being transformed into one of the field hospitals.

... On Saturday, the European Union nation of 38 million recorded 13,628 new cases and 179 new deaths — a record number of deaths in one day since the start of pandemic.

There are now some 11,500 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and 911 of them on respirators, the Health Ministry said
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9497 on: October 24, 2020, 03:00:21 PM »
Regarding the numbers in the US. Is there somewhere a figure showing the number of tests done and the positive rate of the tests? I'm asking because I think that the number of tests done might be lower than the maximum (Trump: test less -> get fewer cases) and still the number is very high. Basically my question is, can we compare today's numbers with those from the summer?

Here in Germany they still insist that the current numbers cannot be compared to the spring numbers because they test more, which is kind of true, but the worrying part is that the test positive rate is going up steeply. It was way below 1% in summer and the latest number now is 3.6 %.

Yes.  Here is the link:

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-tests

Yesterday reached a high of 1,280,000 tests. With 81210 positive tests the rate is 6.3%.
The previous peak was 78971 positives among 960925 tests for an 8.2% rate.
Back in April, the peak was 34807 positives among 155234 tests for a 22.4% rate.



Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9498 on: October 24, 2020, 03:19:21 PM »
^ ... and it's only October  ???

Why does the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) hate our president?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9499 on: October 24, 2020, 04:20:21 PM »
(CFR one order of magnitude below March/April)
That's mostly because younger people are currently getting infected. CFR depends on age exponentially.
When the wave reaches the elderly, CFR will rise again.
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.