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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 420268 times)

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9500 on: October 24, 2020, 04:20:21 PM »
(CFR one order of magnitude below March/April)
That's mostly because younger people are currently getting infected. CFR depends on age exponentially.
When the wave reaches the elderly, CFR will rise again.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9501 on: October 24, 2020, 05:05:55 PM »


-----------------------------------------

... "2020 is almost over. We're in the home stretch!"

The home stretch ...


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9502 on: October 24, 2020, 07:24:39 PM »
Speculations for the 2.0 wave severity in Europe
- Seasonality counts
- Much more testing, better hospital treatments (CFR one order of magnitude below March/April)
- Early september school contagions started, underreported as most kids and teens do not show symptoms. After 30+ days to get exponential growth and substantial numbers, now parents & family become COVID-19 infected en masse and those do call the doctor or go to the hospital.
- Mutation(s) of SARS-Cov-2 more contagious than D614G.
- Most Europe was well protected in wave 1.0, now regions still far from herd immunity suffer second wave badly. To support this, Madrid had a 1.5 wave started in summer, now cases decreasing while almost rest of Spain is spiking up. Maybe Madrid has another comeback but at the time is not.

- Any more ideas?...

I speak here only for France.

Stupidity of the politicians who told us in May that containment was no longer necessary and that we could go out without taking measures to continue the fight against the covid.

The borders remained always open.

During the summer vacations there were no more precautions taken. Almost all French people behaved like selfish fools. Foreigners who came to France did the same.

You cannot ask people crammed into apartments to behave well for months on end.

A French virologist has just stated that there was a new, more deadly virus that was taking hold.


All the specialists (virologists, doctors) haven't stopped hitting each other on television instead of treating us.

French politicians have not stopped saying all the nonsense and they continue.

We are being treated with remdesivir while hydroxychloroquine has been banned for months (according to our specialists it's to avoid us all dying en masse) (if you want French virologists, don't hesitate to come and get them).

We used to have big hospitals full of competent people, but due to the need to save money we closed them down in the last 15 years.

We applaud the nurses and doctors every night at 8:00 pm for 1 minute and then we go for a drink in a crowded bar.

And now that the bars are closed, young people gather in apartments to party. The last record to be beaten is 150 morons for 60 square meters.

« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 09:06:32 PM by Général de GuerreLasse »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9503 on: October 24, 2020, 10:28:33 PM »


------------------------------------------

The U.S. reported more than 83,700 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, passing the last record of roughly 77,300 cases seen in mid-July, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Amid the growing trend in cases, health experts are warning that the U.S. could be in for a difficult winter.

The increase in cases in several states are leading to more hospitalizations and will ultimately lead to more deaths, White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Friday.

While Covid-19 testing is up nearly 13% from Oct. 1, new cases have risen at a much faster rate. The seven-day average of new infections is up 51% over that same period, according to Johns Hopkins data.

... Thirteen states reached record high hospitalizations on Friday, based on a weekly average. Many of them are in the West and Midwest, including Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming, according to a CNBC analysis of Covid Tracking Project data.

---------------------------------------



---------------------------------------

The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln
Oct 22. JUST LEAKED: President Trump's healthcare plan.

Video: https://mobile.twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1319456023040540673

----------------------------------------



--------------------------------------------

Trump Downplays Spike In COVID-19 Cases, Blames Media, Increased Testing for High Numbers
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/522581-trump-downplays-spike-in-covid-19-cases-blames-media-increased?amp



President Trump on Saturday downplayed the nationwide spike in coronavirus cases, and blamed the media and an increase in testing for high numbers of cases less than 24 hours after the U.S. broke a single-day record for new cases.

"The Fake News is talking about CASES, CASES, CASES. This includes many low risk people," Trump said Saturday morning on Twitter.

"Media is doing everything possible to create fear prior to November 3rd," Trump tweeted. "The Cases are up because TESTING is way up, by far the most, and best, in the world. Mortality rate is DOWN 85% plus!"

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320016181734993920

"We're rounding the corner, it's going away," Trump said during the final presidential debate against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Thursday. While he recognized "some spikes and surges," he said "they will soon be gone."

« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 12:29:52 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9504 on: October 25, 2020, 01:24:29 AM »
Czechia is doubly paradigmatic. First they did it right: Someone listend to the numbers and got that multiplicative growth thing right. They completely stopped the first wave.

(Yes, I prefer that to "exponential growth". As these times have amply proven, most folks, incl. lots of MDs and biologists don't have any grasp of maths beyond addition...).

But then they lost it, even had a "Covid farewell party" on the Charles Bridge in Prague... And now things are looking a bit bad...

Excellent interview [1] with an anonymous Czech expert, and his presentation [2] of timeline and data.

[1]


[2]


Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9505 on: October 25, 2020, 02:39:07 AM »
Airplane Banner Warns of the Potential Superspreader Event Prior to Trump’s Rally
https://wkow.com/2020/10/24/airplane-banner-warns-of-the-potential-superspreader-event-prior-to-trumps-rally/



JANESVILLE (WKOW) -- Rural America 2020, the national non-profit made up of rural leaders, will fly an aerial banner over Waukesha and the greater Milwaukee area to warn of the potential superspreader event that is President Trump's rally today at the Waukesha County Airport.

The banner reads "WARNING: SUPERSPREADER TRUMP IN WI. MASK UP."



Along with the aerial banner Rural America 2020 has posted a billboard outside the Waukesha County Airport with the message "TRUMP COVID SUPERSPREADER EVENT."

Quote
#Wisconsin has one of the worst COVID outbreaks in the country right now. So, of course @realDonaldTrump is doing a rally tomorrow not far from a field hospital that's been set up in #Milwaukee. As always, we're up with billboards outside the event to warn WI families.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RuralUSA2020/status/1319720804091912192

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9506 on: October 25, 2020, 02:38:30 AM »
While both testing and positive results have increased significantly, the percentage of positive tests has increased just slightly; from 5% to 6%. 

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9507 on: October 25, 2020, 01:09:36 PM »
The coronavirus is damaging kidneys. Doctors worry that some survivors will need dialysis forever

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-coronavirus-kidneys-doctors-survivors-dialysis.html

"Two studies of New York patients found that 68% to 76% of intensive-care patients with COVID-19 had kidney damage. In one, a third of ICU patients needed dialysis, a process in which a machine performs the kidney's blood-filtering work.

"The amount of acute injury and failure was unexpected and dramatic," said Kliger, cochair of the American Society of Nephrology's COVID-19 Response Team."

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9508 on: October 25, 2020, 04:58:04 PM »
Quote
The coronavirus is damaging kidneys. Doctors worry that some survivors will need dialysis forever

Now imagine this very hardy, very contagious virus lying around everywhere, all the time waiting for your antibodies level drop low enough to attack. Every time there is susceptibility it will damage vital tissue, each time over older people, who become more susceptible to each cycle that passes.

That's what endemic might look like. A chance for a car accident every year, with the speed of the vehicle at the time of the accident increasing with each year that passes. With a chance of accumulative damage to the brain and internal organs.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9509 on: October 25, 2020, 06:02:53 PM »
Czechia is doubly paradigmatic. First they did it right: Someone listend to the numbers and got that multiplicative growth thing right. They completely stopped the first wave.

(Yes, I prefer that to "exponential growth". As these times have amply proven, most folks, incl. lots of MDs and biologists don't have any grasp of maths beyond addition...).

But then they lost it, even had a "Covid farewell party" on the Charles Bridge in Prague... And now things are looking a bit bad...

Excellent interview [1] with an anonymous Czech expert, and his presentation [2] of timeline and data.
Open land for the virus. Even with all the restrictions back in place, it seems too late to avoid a March-style epidemics (will the rest of us avoid it though?)
I wonder about the lack of experience of doctors in Czech Republic, they had the first lockdown but none of the hospital strain and difficulties. Yes, they can learn current protocols, but they’re about to be overrun by the exponential wave for the first time and have their few weeks of constant war-like situation.

And the lack of leadership is clearly another world pandemic. The minister asks the citizens stay in the country for vacation then goes personally to Crete.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 06:12:03 PM by gandul »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9510 on: October 25, 2020, 06:12:40 PM »
Investigation Reveals Just How Dangerous Trump's Rallies Are for Public Health
https://smirkingchimp.com/thread/meaghan-ellis/93536/investigation-reveals-just-how-dangerous-trumps-rallies-are-for-public-health

An investigation into the latest accelerated spread of coronavirus in multiple states appears to be linked to President Donald Trump's string of campaign rallies over the last several weeks.

As coronavirus plagues states all across America, Trump continues to blatantly disregard how dangerous his campaign rallies are for his campaign staff, White House advisors and aides, and everyone who attends his political events. Now, USA Today has explained the extent of the spreads in several counties following the president's rallies.

According to the analysis released by USA Today, case rates in at least five counties—Blue Earth, Minnesota; Lackawanna, Pennsylvania; Marathon, Wisconsin; Dauphin, Pennsylvania; and Beltrami, Minnesota—increased at a faster pace after Trump's rallies. Collectively, these counties reported 1,500 additional new cases in the two weeks after Trump's campaign rallies. The previous number of 8,069 jumped to 9,647 cases.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/10/22/trumps-campaign-made-stops-nationwide-then-coronavirus-cases-surged/3679534001/

... Public health officials have also managed to link some cases and hospitalizations in Wisconsin to the president's recent rallies.

The earliest post-rally spikes occurred even as the nation’s overall case counts were in decline from a peak in mid-July. When U.S. cases started climbing in mid-September, Trump did not alter his campaign schedule but continued holding an average of four rallies a week.

He stopped first in Minnesota, where Blue Earth County’s coronavirus growth rate was 15% before Trump’s rally, but grew to 25% afterward. Three days later, he was in Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania, where the coronavirus growth rate jumped from less than 3% before his visit to more than 7% afterward.

Even in states where cases were already rising, the spikes in at least four counties that hosted Trump rallies far surpassed their state’s overall growth rates.

In two counties, it was more than double: Marathon County’s case count surged by 67% after Trump’s visit compared to Wisconsin’s overall growth rate of 29% during the same time. In Beltrami County, Minnesota, it swelled by 35% compared to the state’s 14%.

Campaign rallies fall within a category the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention labels “highest risk” for the potential to spread the virus that already has claimed the lives of more than 222,000 Americans.

... “I would ask the president, for once, to put the health of his constituents ahead of his own political fortunes,” Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said on Sept. 25. Trump has held three rallies in the state since then.



---------------------------------------

Current PCR test backlog at US national labs (Quest & LabCorp) isn't 3-5 days - it's 5 to 10 days now.  3 to 5 was already almost useless, 5 to 10 is the actual length of a quarantine so there is no real use.  As Bill Gates said, if accurate results can't be returned within 24 hours, the test should not be reimbursed.  That is like getting a cancer screening that takes a full year to get the results for!

Forget contact tracing. You're on your own.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9511 on: October 25, 2020, 06:21:48 PM »
in Lyon the curfew time is announced by a Russian piper. This must be a side effect of the disease. :'(

https://twitter.com/lyondemain/status/1320112118864248835?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9512 on: October 25, 2020, 08:28:04 PM »
Italy Approves Partial Lockdown; Spain Sets National Curfew
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-25/italy-spain-move-to-extend-restrictions-as-virus-cases-surge

Italy introduced its strongest virus restrictions since the end of a national lockdown in May, and Spain will impose new measures, including a curfew, as cases surge in the two countries at the epicenter of the initial wave of the pandemic in Europe.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte approved a plan to limit opening hours for bars and restaurants, and shut entertainment, gambling venues and gyms. Italians will also be urged not to travel. The measures will begin on Monday and remain in effect until Nov. 24.

Italy’s government is running out of options to avoid a full lockdown as it’s failing to contain the virus’s spread through early autumn. New infections rose to a record 21,273 on Sunday and there are now more than 1,200 people being treated in intensive care units for the virus.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s cabinet on Sunday approved a state of emergency and announced a national curfew from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m., except in the Canary Islands, where the infection rate is low. Regional administrations have leeway to slightly change the timing of the curfew, Sanchez said.

Sanchez also delegated to local authorities the power to limit travel in their regions. Spain has a highly decentralized political system and regional administrations have oversight on many policies.

Sanchez last week signaled that infections in Spain may be much more pervasive than the official data show. More than 3 million people in Spain have caught the virus, he said on Friday, a figure some three times higher than official numbers.

----------------------------------------

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows Says ‘We're Not Going to Control the Pandemic’ as Coronavirus Cases Hit Record High
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/25/coronavirus-mark-meadows-says-were-not-going-to-control-the-pandemic-.html

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said on Sunday that the U.S. will not get control of the coronavirus pandemic as the country reports a record high in new daily Covid-19 cases.

"We're not going to control the pandemic," Meadows said during an interview on CNN. "We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations."

Pressed on why the U.S. can't make efforts to control the pandemic, Meadows said: "Because it is a contagious virus just like the flu."

Meadow's comments point to the Trump administration's focus on a potential vaccine or therapeutic to manage Covid-19, rather than implementing national measures to help mitigate the spread of infections.

More than 224,000 people have died since the start of the pandemic and health officials urge that protocols like mask wearing could save nearly 130,000 lives.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/dr-ali-mokdad-says-mask-wearing-could-save-130000-lives-from-coronavirus.html

Meanwhile, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Friday unveiled a plan to address the virus that includes effectively nationalizing mask wearing, Covid-19 testing, PPE procurement, reopening guidelines and vaccine distribution.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/joe-biden-lays-out-a-detailed-plan-to-fight-coronavirus-.html

As the country enters into what could be a dangerous winter, research indicates that the U.S. could see more than 500,000 total deaths by the end of February if states continue to ease pandemic restrictions.

The White House is also facing a potential second outbreak of the virus after at least five people in Pence's inner circle have tested positive in recent days, according to a source familiar with the situation.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/25/mike-pence-coronavirus-four-aides-test-positive-for-covid-19.html
« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 09:59:53 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9513 on: October 25, 2020, 10:50:18 PM »
Not All Public Servants Are Without Empathy
https://www.businessinsider.com/illinois-health-director-was-tears-announcing-record-covid-19-cases-2020-10

The Director of the Department of Public Health in Illinois broke down in tears while announcing a new state record for coronavirus infections on Friday.

As of Sunday morning, there have been at least 376,034 cases and 9,765 deaths in Illinois, according to a New York Times database.



When one of the numbers is someone you know it becomes personal.

--------------------------------------

Trump's Former Homeland Security Adviser on COVID-19: 'We Could Have Saved More Lives With a Different, Faster Approach'
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/522643-trumps-former-homeland-security-advisor-on-covid-19-we-could-have

... "One thing is very clear: We could have saved more lives with a different, faster approach and what's important about looking forward, is the same advice about targeted, layered intervention," Bossert said on ABC's This Week." "Early targeted, layered intervention, in addition to masks, is that we know save lives and we have a chance to do it again if we can get all of our counties and communities on a coordinated, same page."

Bossert, who was Homeland Security adviser for the Trump for one year.

--------------------------------------

NFL Running Back Expected to Miss Entire Season Because of Lingering COVID-19 Issues
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/jaguars/2020/10/25/ryquell-armstead-jaguars-covid-19/6034711002/

Jaguars second-year running back Ryquell Armstead, who turns 23 Friday, is expected to miss the rest of the season because of COVID-19 complications, according to a report.

Armstead has been hospitalized twice because of his ongoing fight against the coronavirus, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The report also says Armstead has had "significant respiratory issues."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9514 on: October 25, 2020, 11:13:47 PM »
Quote
And the lack of leadership is clearly another world pandemic. The minister asks the citizens stay in the country for vacation then goes personally to Crete.
So USA is not exceptional. I believe Brazil may be worse than the USA from what I've read here. And other countries.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9515 on: October 26, 2020, 06:46:49 AM »
Melbourne Update
Zero cases today, less than 5 per day (seven day average) for a week, no deaths for a week.

And on Wednesday we are effectively open again with some basic rules like masks and the number of people in shops restrictions in retail shops etc.

We will be in what we are calling Covid Normal from now on.

110 days from 700 a day to zero and open again.

We will soon be able to fly to New Zealand, travel inter state, and soon some other Covid free countries that are "local".

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9516 on: October 26, 2020, 08:19:27 AM »
Go Australia!

Now is the time to expand testing and contact tracing efforts.

An outbreak will occur at some point, very likely travel related. The more widespread the testing, the earlier you will catch the outbreak.

BUT THERE WILL BE OUTBREAKS.

If the contact tracers move fast and the contacts isolate there is no reason for C19 to take root again. Hopefully, safe vaccines are in place before next winter. Less likely but even better would be a cheap and effective antiviral.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9517 on: October 26, 2020, 08:52:03 AM »
Go Australia!

Now is the time to expand testing and contact tracing efforts.

An outbreak will occur at some point, very likely travel related. The more widespread the testing, the earlier you will catch the outbreak.

BUT THERE WILL BE OUTBREAKS.

If the contact tracers move fast and the contacts isolate there is no reason for C19 to take root again. Hopefully, safe vaccines are in place before next winter. Less likely but even better would be a cheap and effective antiviral.

Exactly..... and that is all in place. Unsurprisingly, Victoria now has a well oiled testing and tracing process that works under stress. Trial by fire, mistakes made and mended and the expectation is there will be outbreaks.

Most people here understand this (I still have friends who think it is a hoax or conspiracy but they are rare) so when sick, a Covid test is part of the process now.

Our State Govt is very keen to keep Covid under control, this was a hard task to do under extreme pressure from the Federal Govt and big business to open up weeks ago, so now they have the control, the plan is to keep it and never take the foot off the virus.

What concerns me is how hard it is to control. 110 days of tough restrictions, masks, testing and tracing is what it took to truly get this result. I am not sure if this is possible in many rich countries... the sense of freedom and personal entitlement has created communities and leaders who don't care as much as our State Govt.... I think I am very lucky to live here.

Now it is the NH to take on Covid..... it looks terrible to me.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9518 on: October 26, 2020, 12:14:49 PM »
Quote
I am not sure if this is possible in many rich countries

I think it is possible in any country where leaders unite behind the common purpose of eradicating the virus from their lands. Even if there is dissent if there is a critical mass of people willing to put up a fight this can be stopped.

Leaders have the power to make most people follow simple sanitary rules just as they have the power to make their followers to suck Covid.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9519 on: October 26, 2020, 01:33:42 PM »
As usual, eradication works in theory. But to really do it you need all sectors of the population to wholly participate. In Israel one sector that comprises 10% of the population refuses to fully participate for religious/cultural reasons, and the possibility of eradication is simply not there. Lockdowns are much less effective and the virus makes a comeback quickly.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9520 on: October 26, 2020, 01:44:48 PM »
As usual, eradication works in theory. But to really do it you need all sectors of the population to wholly participate. In Israel one sector that comprises 10% of the population refuses to fully participate for religious/cultural reasons, and the possibility of eradication is simply not there. Lockdowns are much less effective and the virus makes a comeback quickly.

The virus tends to spread more readily in those areas.  Hence, in the future, they we comprise less of the total population. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9521 on: October 26, 2020, 02:29:44 PM »
It’s Time to Talk About Covid-19 and Surfaces Again
In the early days, we furiously scrubbed, afraid we could get sick from the virus lingering on objects and surfaces. What do we know now?
Quote
“… the focus on fomites [virus particles on surfaces] has waned, and has been replaced by a focus on person-to-person transmission through respiration. The shift was based on epidemiological evidence. Experts knew all along that droplets passed by sneezing, coughing, or speaking were likely an important mode of transmission—that’s just how respiratory viruses tend to move.

Over time, it became clear that aerosols, which remain suspended in the air, can better explain why so many infections seemed to be passing between people who did not directly interact, but could have shared the same indoor air. That’s why public health officials now emphasize mask wearing and ventilation. The CDC’s most recently updated guidance, from early October, holds that “spread from touching surfaces is not thought to be a common way that Covid-19 spread.”
...
https://www.wired.com/story/its-time-to-talk-about-covid-19-and-surfaces-again/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9522 on: October 26, 2020, 04:08:37 PM »
Doctors with covid asked to stay at work in Belgium

Quote
A quarter of medical staff in Liege are reported to be off work with Covid-19. But another 10% of staff who have tested positive but are asymptomic have been asked to continue working.

The president of the Belgian Association of Medical Unions, Dr Philippe Devos, acknowledged the obvious risk of transferring the virus to patients, but says they’ve been left with no choice in order to avoid the hospital system collapsing within days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54689273 post at 14:36

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9523 on: October 26, 2020, 05:34:14 PM »
In Hot Spots Around the Country, Hospitals are Reaching Their Limits
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/25/world/in-hot-spots-around-the-country-hospitals-are-reaching-their-limits.html

Hospital administrators in Utah have sent a grim warning to Gov. Gary Herbert that they will soon be forced to ration access to their rapidly filling intensive-care units, and requested approval for criteria to decide which patients should get priority, The Salt Lake Tribune reported.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

“We told him, ‘It looks like we’re going to have to request those be activated if this trend continues,’ and we see no reason why it won’t,” the paper quoted Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, as saying.

In Tennessee, the Maury Regional Medical Center in Columbia suspended all elective procedures requiring an overnight stay on Saturday to make room for an influx of Covid-19 patients. Most of the facility’s 26 I.C.U. beds are already filled.

Hospitals in El Paso, Texas, are preparing to airlift some critical care patients to other medical facilities in the state after a record surge of Covid-19 hospitalizations, according to a statement from the University Medical Center of El Paso. Gov. Greg Abbott has asked the federal government to authorize the use of a military hospital at Fort Bliss, outside El Paso, to treat civilian non-coronavirus patients, his office said in a statement on Friday.

----------------------------------------

Military to Play Logistics-Only Role in COVID-19 Vaccine Effort
https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2393298/military-to-play-logistics-only-role-in-covid-19-vaccine-effort/source/GovDelivery/

U.S. military personnel won't be administering any COVID-19 vaccines to the American people once the vaccines are approved for use. But the U.S. military will lend it's experienced hand in logistics to ensure the vaccine is available across the nation, said Paul Mango, the deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department of Health and Human Services.

... "They will know where every vaccine dose is. If a vaccine dose is at risk of expiring, they will guide the movement of that to someplace else."

... federal military personnel will not be involved in touching the vaccine or administering it to Americans. He did add that if state governors want their own National Guard personnel to be involved as part of a state-run effort, they will do that at their discretion.

"The federal military will not be involved in moving any doses or injecting any vaccines,"

----------------------------------

North Dakota officials voted to repurpose US$221m in federal coronavirus aid to various state agencies, including a $16m grant to oil companies in support of the fracking process, AP reports.

The North Dakota Emergency Commission approved the plan Friday, the Bismarck Tribune reported.

The money comes from the $1.25bn awarded to the state through the Coronavirus Relief Fund established by the federal CARES Act.


-------------------------------------

Mexican health authorities acknowledged Sunday that the country’s true death toll from the coronavirus pandemic is far higher than thought, saying there were 193,170 “excess” deaths in the year up to 26 September, with 139,153 of those judged to be attributable to Covid-19. That is about 50,000 more deaths than Mexico’s official, test-confirmed death toll of about 89,000, and about 56% higher than the previous estimate of 103,882 pandemic deaths.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9524 on: October 27, 2020, 12:00:05 AM »
Trump Claims Outbreak is a ‘Fake News Media Conspiracy’ as Hospitalizations Rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/coronavirus-trump-claims-the-worsening-us-outbreak-is-a-fake-news-media-conspiracy-even-as-hospitalizations-rise.html

President Donald Trump tweeted that the U.S. coronavirus outbreak is a “Fake News Media Conspiracy,” even as Covid-19 hospitalizations rise in several states.

“Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high,” Trump said in a tweet Monday morning. “On November 4th., topic will totally change,” he added, referring to the day after the presidential election.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320708386476990464

Trump’s tweet came as the U.S. is reporting a record-breaking number of new coronavirus cases. On Sunday, the country reported a weekly average of about 68,767 new cases every day, the highest seven-day average recorded yet, according to a CNBC analysis of Hopkins data. The U.S. reported 60,789 new Covid cases Sunday after daily cases reached 83,757 on Friday, passing the last record of roughly 77,300 cases seen on July 16, according to Hopkins data.



With Election Day just over a week away, average deaths per day across the country are up 10% over the past two weeks, from 721 to nearly 794 as of Sunday.

The overall U.S. positivity rate, or the percentage of Covid-19 tests that come back positive, is at 6.2%, up from around 5.2% last week, according to Hopkins. Illinois, where businesses are bracing for new coronavirus restrictions amid a rise in new Covid cases, has a positivity rate of 6.3%. Wisconsin, which hit a record high in average daily cases Sunday, has a positivity rate of 16%. Kentucky, another state that hit a new high, has a positivity rate of 8.4%.



... The U.S. is “at a tipping point” in its pandemic. “We’re likely to see a very dense epidemic. I think we’re right now at the cusp of what is going to be exponential spread in parts of the country."

-------------------------------------------



--------------------------------------------

El Paso Imposes Curfew as Virus Cases Swamp Hospitals
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/el-paso-imposes-curfew-as-virus-cases-overwhelm-hospitals-.html

Residents in El Paso, Texas, have been urged to stay home for two weeks after a surge in Covid-19 cases overwhelms hospitals, the Associated Press reported.

To ease stress on hospitals, officials have dedicated part of El Paso’s civic center as a makeshift care center, the AP said.

“We are in a crisis stage,” said El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego, the county’s top elected official.

On Sunday night, Samaniego announced a daily curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m., with violators facing fines of $500, according to the wire service.

-----------------------------------------------

France alone may be experiencing 100,000 new coronavirus cases per day – double the latest official figures – Prof Jean-François Delfraissy, who heads the scientific council that advises the government on the pandemic, said. Tougher coronavirus containment measures could be announced in the country later this week.

--------------------------------------

Belgium’s intensive care units will be overrun in two weeks if the rate of infection continues, a spokesman for country’s Covid-19 crisis centre has said. Dr Yves Van Laethem said the 2,000 intensive care beds would be full with patients without a change of course.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 12:49:47 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9525 on: October 27, 2020, 01:01:59 AM »
Doctors with covid asked to stay at work in Belgium

Quote
A quarter of medical staff in Liege are reported to be off work with Covid-19. But another 10% of staff who have tested positive but are asymptomic have been asked to continue working.

The president of the Belgian Association of Medical Unions, Dr Philippe Devos, acknowledged the obvious risk of transferring the virus to patients, but says they’ve been left with no choice in order to avoid the hospital system collapsing within days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54689273 post at 14:36

This is really stupid.

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9526 on: October 27, 2020, 04:58:25 AM »
This is a very serious situation, if the report is accurate. Risking transmission from medical staff to patients is a devil's bargain. How many will that discourage from seeking treatment for other ills?

Can they call out army medical corps ?  Are there no cross border treatment agreements ?

sidd

Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9527 on: October 27, 2020, 09:27:25 AM »
It's a daft and dangerous policy for anyone but a clinician working over the telephone from isolation to be doing clinical work with a positive COVID test, but across which border should they ask for help? France, Germany and the Netherlands all have serious situations of their own.

blu_ice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #9528 on: October 27, 2020, 10:08:16 AM »

-----------------------------



-----------------------------
I don't know who prepared this map, but it looks like propaganda. If US and UK  are best prepated, it means that the author likes a specific way of working. I can't believe that Thailand is better prepared than Italy or Belgium.
How things change. It's getting very obvious that Thailand was a lot better prepared than Italy or Belgium.

And US and UK has tought us preparedness doesn't matter if leadership is incompetent.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9529 on: October 27, 2020, 10:15:34 AM »
The Herd Immunity Theory in Question: Antibodies 'Fall Rapidly After Infection'
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-asymptomatic-virus-antibodies-sooner.html

Antibodies against the coronavirus declined rapidly in the British population in summer, a study found on Tuesday, suggesting protection after infection may not be long-lasting and raising the prospect of waning immunity in the community.

Although virus immunity is a complex and murky topic and may be assisted by T cells, as well as B cells that can stimulate swift production of antibodies following virus re-exposure, the researchers said the experience of other coronaviruses suggested immunity might not be enduring.

The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home using a finger-prick test showed the proportion of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies declined by 26.5% between June 20—12 weeks after the peak of infections in the country—and Sept. 28

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

The downward trend was observed in all areas of the country and age groups, but not in health workers, which could indicate repeated or higher initial exposure to the virus, the authors suggest. The decline was largest in people aged 75 and above compared to younger people, and also in people with suspected rather than confirmed infection, indicating that the antibody response varies by age and with the severity of illness.

The decline was largest in people who didn’t report a history of COVID-19 (asymptomatic), dropping by almost two-thirds (64.0%) between rounds one and three, compared to a decrease of 22.3% in people who had an infection confirmed by lab testing.

... After accounting for the accuracy of the test, confirmed by laboratory evaluation, and the country’s population characteristics, the study found that antibody prevalence declined from 6.0% to 4.8% and then 4.4% over the three months.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/MEDRXIV-2020-219725v1-Elliott.pdf

------------------------------------

... other studies

Studies Show Long-Term COVID-19 Immune Response
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-show-long-term-covid-19-immune-response

... More than 95% of patients showed seroconversion—the presence of detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies—and neutralizing antibodies in samples 8 days after symptom onset, but the magnitude of the neutralizing antibody response appears to depend on disease severity, with lower peak antibody levels in individuals exhibiting milder disease.

In some individuals with low initial levels of peak neutralizing antibodies (mean infectious dose [ID50], 100 to 300), antibodies were undetectable after 50 days, while some patients with high initial levels (ID50, 1,000 to 3,500) maintained neutralizing antibodies for more than 60 days after initial symptoms.

"In some individuals, SARS-CoV-2 infection generates only a transient neutralizing antibody response that rapidly wanes," the authors suggest. In contrast, antibody levels in patients with high initial levels (ID50  > 4,000) declined but remained in the 1,000 to 3,500 range through the end of the study period.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00813-8

Portuguese researchers found that 90% of SARS-CoV-2–positive individuals had detectable antibodies from 40 days up to 7 months post-infection, with higher levels in patients with more severe disease. 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eji.202048970

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/idmm-sad102320.php

------------------------------------

Tumbling numbers of pregnancies and marriages in Japan during the coronavirus pandemic are likely to intensify a demographic crisis in the rapidly ageing nation, Reuters reports.

Japan has the most aged society in the world, with more than 35% of its population expected to be 65 and over by 2050, a trend that poses risks for economic growth and straining government finances.

Recently published official data showed the number of notified pregnancies in the three months to July fell 11.4% from a year earlier, while the number of marriages over the same period dropped 36.9%. The sharp decline in marriages matters because the majority of babies in Japan are born in wedlock.

----------------------------------------

Re: Thailand vs Belgium

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg250745.html#msg250745
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 10:23:26 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9530 on: October 27, 2020, 10:18:44 AM »
Go Australia!

Now is the time to expand testing and contact tracing efforts.

An outbreak will occur at some point, very likely travel related. The more widespread the testing, the earlier you will catch the outbreak.

BUT THERE WILL BE OUTBREAKS.

If the contact tracers move fast and the contacts isolate there is no reason for C19 to take root again. Hopefully, safe vaccines are in place before next winter. Less likely but even better would be a cheap and effective antiviral.

They don't really need to do anything. Europe's example shows that there will be no problems during Australia's summer. By the time it is winter again, they will have a vaccine.

Enjoy the surf!

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9531 on: October 27, 2020, 11:20:55 AM »
Eli Lilly Says Its Antibody Treatment Does Not Work on Hospitalized Virus Patients
https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates.amp.html?amp_js_v=0.1#eli-lilly-said-its-antibody-treatment-does-not-work-on-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-19
https://www.lilly.com/news/stories/statement-activ3-clinical-trial-nih-covid19

The drug maker Eli Lilly said on Monday that its antibody treatment was ineffective on patients hospitalized with advanced Covid-19 and that a government-sponsored trial would not administer the drug to new participants.

The company said that other trials of the treatment, in people who are not as sick or who have been exposed to the virus, would continue, and that it remained optimistic that the treatment could work if given early in the course of the disease.

Earlier this month, Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, said he had received the experimental treatment shortly after he was diagnosed with Covid-19. President Trump received a similar therapy, made by Regeneron, soon after he was infected. Both companies have applied to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use of the treatment in outpatients.

Eli Lilly’s trial of hospitalized patients was being run by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health, and was paused two weeks ago after an outside safety panel flagged a “potential safety concern.”

Government officials said at the time that an independent board of scientific experts had found that after five days of treatment, the group of patients who had received the antibodies showed a different “clinical status” than the group who had received a saline placebo — a difference that crossed a predetermined threshold for safety.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/eli-lilly-antibody.html

On Monday, Eli Lilly said the recommendation to discontinue use of the antibody treatment, called bamlanivimab, “was based on trial data suggesting that bamlanivimab is unlikely to help hospitalized Covid-19 patients recover from this advanced stage of their disease.” The company also said “differences in safety outcomes between the groups were not significant.”

Dr. Eric Topol, a clinical trial expert at the Scripps Research Institute who has been following the treatment’s development, said the news “tells us they stopped the trial due to futility, as suspected,” and that it “suggests that the timing of monoclonal antibody administration — early — will be important.”

Other trials of the antibody treatment have shown early promise in people who were newly infected with the virus, showing that it can lower viral levels in patients and reduce visits to the emergency room and hospital.

-----------------------------------

C.D.C. Study: Nurses at High Risk Among Health Care Workers

Among health care workers, nurses in particular have been at significant risk of contracting Covid-19, according to a new analysis of hospitalized patients by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6943e3.htm?s_cid=mm6943e3_w

... About 6 percent of adults hospitalized from March through May were health care workers, according to the researchers, with more than a third either nurses or nursing assistants. Twenty-seven percent of those hospitalized workers were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 4 percent died during their hospital stay.

From the beginning of the pandemic in the United States, front-line medical personnel have complained of shortages of personal protective equipment. Some of the shortages abated for a while, but supplies have become strained in certain areas of the country amid the new outbreaks.

Calling the findings no surprise, Michelle Mahon, the assistant director of nursing practice at National Nurses United, criticized federal officials for not having more robust guidelines in place. Her organization, which issued a report on workers’ deaths last month, says about 2,000 health care workers have died from the virus.

https://act.nationalnursesunited.org/page/-/files/graphics/0920_Covid19_SinsOfOmission_Data_Report.pdf/

-----------------------------------------

Kansas Counties With Mask Mandates Had Half the Rate of New Infections, Study Finds.
https://www2.ljworld.com/news/ku/2020/oct/23/covid-19-spreading-half-as-quickly-in-counties-with-mask-mandates-ku-research-shows/

A new study by economists at the University of Kansas has found that counties in the state where residents are obliged to wear masks in public have seen about half as many new coronavirus infections as counties that do not have a mask mandate in force.

The study by the university’s Institute for Policy & Social Research is part of a countrywide trend, experts said. Localities that impose mask mandates often see fewer cases, fewer hospitalizations, fewer deaths or lower test-positivity rates than nearby localities that do not.

https://mediahub.ku.edu/media/Masks/1_49bb9aid

The same trend has been seen in Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas, according to a report from Prevent Pandemics, a nonprofit group advocating pandemic-fighting measures.

https://preventepidemics.org/covid19/science/weekly-science-review/october-3-9/

The Kansas study began after Gov. Laura Kelly (D) issued a statewide mask order on July 2, but allowed counties to opt out of it. She was obliged to give counties that freedom under a law passed by majority Republican legislature in June limiting her emergency management powers. All but 24 of the state’s 105 counties formally opted out of her mask order, and only 20 counties enforced it.

“Economists love natural experiments, and Kansas was running a natural experiment,” said Donna K. Ginther, director of the university’s Institute for Policy & Social Research, which conducted the study.

Differences in the spread of the virus between the masked and unmasked counties began to appear about two weeks later, she said, “and in mid-August, cases really began to take off.”

In the mask-wearing counties, new-case rates stayed roughly steady at about 7 per 100,000 residents through mid-October, her figures show, while they doubled in counties without mandates, to about 14 per 100,000.

Cellphone-tracking data from the University of Maryland showed no differences in how often people left home in the counties with or without mask mandates, she said, so it seemed likely that the masks made the difference.

-----------------------------------------

El Paso orders a curfew to stem a coronavirus surge as its hospitals overflow.

The virus surge in the El Paso metropolitan area has gotten so bad so fast that local officials are taking drastic action, imposing a two-week stay-at-home order and a 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew that took effect Sunday night.

In El Paso, the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has more than tripled over the past three weeks, officials said. As of Monday morning, the total was 853, according to the University Medical Center of El Paso, where the coronavirus patient count has doubled in four days.

As of Sunday, one-third of all the patients in the region’s hospitals had Covid-19, according the county’s curfew order. The top elected executive in El Paso, County Judge Ricardo A. Samaniego, wrote in the order that hospital intensive-care units were completely full.

Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas announced on Sunday that the state would provide a 50-bed temporary hospital at a convention center in the area. He has also asked the federal government to make the military hospital at Fort Bliss available for civilian patients. And the state is sending three or four mobile hospital units, which will be set up in parking lots.

As a third surge has taken hold in the country, the El Paso metro area now ranks 11th in the nation in coronavirus cases relative to its population, according to a New York Times database. The only cities that rank higher in this fall wave are in hard-hit Idaho, North Dakota and Wisconsin.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9532 on: October 27, 2020, 11:51:49 AM »
Ultrasounds Show Impact of COVID-19 on the Heart
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-ultrasounds-impact-covid-heart.html

Cardiac ultrasounds (also known as echocardiograms) are providing a view of the heart and the impact of the COVID-19 virus on patients. A new study by researchers at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai identifies different types of cardiac structural damage experienced by COVID-19 patients after cardiac injury that can be associated with deadly conditions including heart attack, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, and myocarditis. These abnormalities are associated with higher risk of death among hospitalized patients. The findings, published the October 26 issue of the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.

The international, retrospective study expands on Mount Sinai's previous research showing that myocardial injury (heart damage) is prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with higher risk of mortality. That study focused on the patients' levels of troponin—proteins that are released when the heart muscle becomes damaged—and their outcomes (higher troponin levels mean greater heart damage).

This new work looked at the presence of cardiac troponin elevations in combination with the presence of echocardiographic abnormalities, and found that the combination was associated with worse prognosis and mortality than troponin elevations alone.


Among patients with Covid-19 who underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), cardiac structural abnormalities were present in nearly two-thirds of patients with myocardial injury. Cardiac structural abnormalities included right ventricular dysfunction, left ventricular wall motion abnormalities, global left ventricular dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction and pericardial effusions. LV = Left Ventricular.

Researchers found that patients with myocardial injury had more electrocardiographic abnormalities, higher inflammatory biomarkers, and an increased prevalence of TTE abnormalities when compared to patients without heart injury.

Characterization of Myocardial Injury in Patients With COVID-19
https://www.onlinejacc.org/content/76/18/2043
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9533 on: October 27, 2020, 12:27:42 PM »
Tumbling numbers of pregnancies and marriages in Japan during the coronavirus pandemic are likely to intensify a demographic crisis in the rapidly ageing nation, Reuters reports.

Japan has the most aged society in the world, with more than 35% of its population expected to be 65 and over by 2050, a trend that poses risks for economic growth and straining government finances.

I know this is OT here but this drives me nuts. Transitioning to a stable population structure means passing a larger cohort through old age. It has to happen sometime or your population grows infinitely. I understand that it can be done more or less rapidly, but I guarantee you it's not going to get easier to tackle the demographic transition later in this century. Get on with it!

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9534 on: October 27, 2020, 01:17:24 PM »
This is a very serious situation, if the report is accurate. Risking transmission from medical staff to patients is a devil's bargain. How many will that discourage from seeking treatment for other ills?

Can they call out army medical corps ?  Are there no cross border treatment agreements ?

sidd

There are some but their use is really limited. The Netherlands sends cases to Germany but not more then 10 per day due to limitations on the amount of special transport vehicles available.

We have some Belgian patients but that will be on a similar order of magnitude so that will not really help with the current numbers.

However when the Covid cases ramp up the hospitals stop performing all elective surgery that can be cancelled. So there is a high chance that the positive without symptoms personnel will work with active covid cases.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9535 on: October 27, 2020, 01:17:39 PM »
Thanks vox-mundi. Very recent research that confirms earlier studies that this thing can damage your heart.

THIS IS NOT THE FLU!

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9536 on: October 27, 2020, 01:28:35 PM »


I know this is OT here but this drives me nuts. Transitioning to a stable population structure means passing a larger cohort through old age. It has to happen sometime or your population grows infinitely. Get on with it!

ditto re OT but

Japan was already down at 1.42 children per child bearing age woman. That is nowhere near 'population grows infinitely' nor 'stable population' territory.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9537 on: October 27, 2020, 01:41:54 PM »
Tumbling numbers of pregnancies and marriages in Japan during the coronavirus pandemic are likely to intensify a demographic crisis in the rapidly ageing nation, Reuters reports.

Japan has the most aged society in the world, with more than 35% of its population expected to be 65 and over by 2050, a trend that poses risks for economic growth and straining government finances.

I know this is OT here but this drives me nuts. Transitioning to a stable population structure means passing a larger cohort through old age. It has to happen sometime or your population grows infinitely. I understand that it can be done more or less rapidly, but I guarantee you it's not going to get easier to tackle the demographic transition later in this century. Get on with it!

Managing the transition at the stage Japan is at, requires having more children. Stable requires R=1 and its been well under 1 in Japan for decades.

...

Quote
Kansas Counties With Mask Mandates Had Half the Rate of New Infections, Study Finds.

This is a gross exaggeration. It took about 20 generations to get that factor of 2 which would actually be about a 3.5% drop in the rate of new infections. Its not nothing, but it took a lot of generations and a background R close to 1 to see the effect.

Mask are probably worth a bit more than 3.5%. The counties with mask mandates are self-selected, not a random sample, and its almost certainly biased by population density in a way that understates mask effectiveness since there's a very high correlation between political party and population density in the US.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9538 on: October 27, 2020, 02:06:21 PM »
Tumbling numbers of pregnancies and marriages in Japan during the coronavirus pandemic are likely to intensify a demographic crisis in the rapidly ageing nation, Reuters reports.

Japan has the most aged society in the world, with more than 35% of its population expected to be 65 and over by 2050, a trend that poses risks for economic growth and straining government finances.

I know this is OT here but this drives me nuts. Transitioning to a stable population structure means passing a larger cohort through old age. It has to happen sometime or your population grows infinitely. I understand that it can be done more or less rapidly, but I guarantee you it's not going to get easier to tackle the demographic transition later in this century. Get on with it!

Today you read that an ageing population means economic disaster as the percentage of the population of working age decreases..
Tomorrow you read that AI + robots mean vastly increased unemployment of those of working age.

& has absolutely nowt to do with sorting out how to manage covid-19.



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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9539 on: October 27, 2020, 02:24:34 PM »
Germany Sees Exponential Rise In Cases

Germany recorded 11,409 new daily infections and 42 deaths in the last 24 hours, according to the latest data from the country's infections disease agency, the Robert Koch Institute.

More than 280 regions across the nation are now considered coronavirus hotspots, having exceeded the government threshold of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the past seven days.

The number of new coronavirus infections in Germany is likely to reach 20,000 a cases/day at the end of this week, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has said.

“We are dealing with exponential growth,” Altmaier told a German-French economic conference via video link in Berlin.

“In Germany the number of new infections is rising by 70-75% compared to the week before.”

Altmaier’s forecast shows that Germany is contending with a faster upswing in coronavirus cases than previously expected. At the end of September, Chancellor Angela Merkel said there could be 19,200 cases per day by Christmas.

------------------------------------

‘It’s Apocalyptic’: El Paso Cardiologist Fears Non-COVID Patients Will Die Due to Hospital Overflow
https://kvia.com/coronavirus/2020/10/26/its-apocalyptic-el-paso-cardiologist-fears-non-covid-patients-will-die-due-to-lack-of-hospital-capacity/



EL PASO, Texas-- Hospital capacity has a prominent El Paso cardiologist fearing for his patients.

"We are canceling every single elective procedure but as you understand, cardiac procedures most of the time are not elective if you're having chest pains, if you're having fainting spells because you're heart is not performing well you need those procedures preformed," said Dr. Juan Taveras, a cardiologist with Las Palmas Del Sol.

As ABC-7 has reported, hospitalizations are up 300% in less than a month's time. El Paso hospitals are at full capacity, and providing care to non-Covid patients has become increasingly challenging.

"To me this is apocalyptic, there is no other way of describing it," said Taveras.

Some area hospitals have already made plans to voluntarily air-lift non-Covid patients in the intensive care unit to other Texas cities. While those patients will be receiving the care they need, for Taveras not being able to treat his patients is concerning.

"This is not only a concern from a physician who has a relationship for a patient for the last 20 to 25 years it's also the concern for the family members that are not able to travel to San Antonio, Houston or Austin," Taveras said.

University Medical Center's Chief Medical Officer Dr. Joel Hedryx offered this assessment of the capacity crisis on Monday afternoon.

"We realized that this is the unexpected (huh?), this is something that we've not had to do before, we're having to house the patients here for a day or two until they are able to go home," Hedryx said.

Ultimately, Taveras fears this capacity issue will lead ambulance bays to be backlogged forcing patients to wait in line for critical care.

"This is a disaster, people are going to start dying, as a matter a fact they started dying already - not because they have the Covid, but from the Covid because the Covid has impaired the ability to deliver care. That's what is happening right now," Taveras concluded.

----------------------------------------

Coronavirus Northern Ireland: Antrim Hospital 'Beyond Capacity' as Five Deaths and 727 New Cases of Covid-19 Confirmed
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-northern-ireland-antrim-hospital-beyond-capacity-as-five-deaths-and-727-new-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-39667830.html

Antrim Area Hospital is "operating beyond capacity" with 27 sick patients awaiting admission, the Northern Trust has warned.

Patients were on Monday evening asked not to attend the hospital's emergency department unless urgent medical care was requited.

The warning came as the Trust warned Northern Ireland is "in the midst of the second Covid surge" with the hospital taking care of very ill patients.

Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Ambulance Service (NIAS) said it was "extremely busy" on Monday evening and asked for patience.

"We will prioritise calls to provide the quickest response to the most seriously ill or injured," it said.

Over the past seven days 6,828 people have tested positive for the virus, with 1,714 in the Belfast council area and 810 in Derry City and Strabane.

There are currently 342 Covid-19 inpatients in Northern Ireland's hospitals, with 39 in intensive care units.

Hospital bed occupancy currently stands at 96%, with 9 intensive care unit beds remaining free.

In Northern Ireland's care homes there are currently 99 active Covid-19 outbreaks.

---------------------------------

Idaho Hospitals Near Capacity, May Send New Coronavirus Patients to Portland, Seattle
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/10/idaho-hospitals-near-capacity-may-send-new-coronavirus-patients-to-portland-seattle.html

COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho. — People with COVID-19 in Northern Idaho soon may have to be sent to Portland or Seattle, 400 miles away, because the region’s hospitals are nearing capacity.

Kootenai Health hospital said in a statement Wednesday that their hospital is at 99% capacity for patients. The facility is also short-staffed, as demand for nurses grows with the rise in COVID-19 cases throughout the country, the statement said.

https://www.kh.org/regional-hospitals-reach-full-capacity/

“Because all regional hospitals are experiencing the same situation, there will be limited opportunities to transfer patients to other facilities once at capacity,” the hospital said. “If there is no room available, Kootenai Health is currently looking at hospitals in Seattle or Portland to find space to transfer patients, but it is very limited.”

As of Wednesday morning, Kootenai Health, based in Coeur D’Alene, had 31 COVID-19 inpatients and 11 required critical care. Chief Physician Executive Karen Cabell told KREM the hospital nearing capacity at its current levels is “unprecedented.”

Kootenai Health will not turn anybody away, but there may be long wait times and patients might receive treatment in different locations such as the waiting room, Cabell said.

In the southern Idaho city of Twin Falls, St. Luke’s Hospital has had to cancel all elective surgery for the month to accommodate an influx of COVID-19 patients. One in every four patients there is sick with COVID-19.

--------------------------------

Hospitals are Full But Some Parts of Idaho Refuse Mask Rules
https://omaha.com/news/national/hospitals-are-full-but-some-parts-of-idaho-refuse-mask-rules/article_212901df-c55e-5d9c-b937-4a27a0a638e8.html

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Moments after hearing an Idaho hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and looking at sending people as far away as Seattle for care, members of a regional health department board voted Thursday to repeal a local mask mandate.

... the board voted 4-3 to end the mask mandate. Board members overseeing the operations of Idaho’s public health districts are appointed by county commissioners and not required to have any medical experience.

Board member Walt Kirby said he was giving up on the idea of controlling the spread of coronavirus.

“I personally do not care whether anybody wears a mask or not. If they want to be dumb enough to walk around and expose themselves and others, that's fine with me,” Kirby said. “Nobody's wearing the damned mask anyway. ... I'm sitting back and watching them catch it and die. Hopefully I'll live through it.”

Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.“Something's making these people sick, and I'm pretty sure that it's not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, 'What's making them sick?'”
he told the medical professionals who testified.

Similar scenes — with doctors and nurses asking officials for help, only to be met with reluctance or even open skepticism — have played out across the conservative state. Idaho is sixth in the nation for new coronavirus cases per capita, with the average number of confirmed cases increasing by more than 55% every day over the past two weeks.

Still, Republican Gov. Brad Little has declined to issue a statewide mask mandate or limit crowd sizes beyond requiring social distancing at large events and in businesses, which is seldom enforced. Instead, Little has left it up to local health departments and school districts to make the tough decisions that sometimes come with blowback from the public.

In central Idaho, Adams County commissioners have approved a resolution rescinding all orders, recommendations and restrictions related to COVID-19

--------------------------------

... and it's only October
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 08:44:11 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9540 on: October 27, 2020, 02:35:34 PM »
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020

This latest death certificate data (deaths reported between 10-16 Oct) shows excess at around the statistical significance level.
Quote
The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 16 October 2020 (Week 42) was 11,928, which was 726 deaths higher than the five-year average and 569 deaths more than Week 41; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 42, 761 deaths involved COVID-19, 287 deaths higher than in Week 41.

There's also a paragraph on the earliest COVID deaths reported so far. The long delays are probably due to requiring an inquest to be held before they could be recorded, deaths which are sufficiently unusual to require an inquest can take a year before the certificate is issued so its quite possible there are still a few more inquests pending for Jan/Feb COVID deaths.

Quote
A death of a man aged 80 to 84 years was registered in the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36), which occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5). This is the earliest known death involving COVID-19 in the UK. There was also a death of a man aged 55 to 59 years registered in the week ending 21 August 2020 (Week 34) that occurred in the week ending 7 February (Week 6) as well as a death of a female aged 30 to 34 years that was registered by 24 October 2020 and that occurred in the week ending 28 February 2020 (Week 9).


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9541 on: October 27, 2020, 02:45:00 PM »
With research continuing to show evidence of heart, lung, kidney and brain damage in patients that have recovered and with multiple vaccines under development, I would just like to say that herd immunity is a profoundly stupid, even evil, strategy.

Never mind the damage to placenta, the ileum in the lower intestine and the onset of diabetes which cannot yet be explained...

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9542 on: October 27, 2020, 03:07:18 PM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June. Apparent control is actual obfuscation via seasonality's modification of both transmission and mortality patterns. It is now spreading more slowly but doing so substantially more invisibly. If there is not a viable vaccine, Australia too, will be screwed (and it will be everywhere when they lift the interstate travel bans if they haven't already, I haven't been following re: Victoria).

Herd immunity is not evil, and implying that YOU should be spared from the virus as society carries on in your absence as it HAS TO FOR YOU TO SURVIVE is incredibly ELITEST and shows a disconnect from fellow humanity.

When I walked to Midtown in May, pedestrians were almost exclusively people of color who were ensuring the city carried on and continued functioning so people like those still cloistered inside could continue to do so. Ignoring the reality of the transmission rate and lack of a vaccine means herd immunity is INEVITABLE not a SOLUTION and it is like saying the destination at the end of the Acela is NOT Boston when, whether or not you want to get to Beantown, you are on the train, we are past Philadelphia or New York, and you cannot get off.

I wonder what is happening in China right now. I suspect a similar situation to Czechia is underway. Unironically their data is simply not on Wikipedia's continental comparison graphs because it is so absurdly low (I suppose)? When in reality they have had a simmering summertime caseload much like most of the EU, and the exponential increase is likely well underway in provinces encompassing a population equivalent or greater to the EU.

Had countries in the Northern Hemisphere pursued the Swedish or American strategies during the summertime, overall mortality would have been minimized (I think even NYC may have actually been minimized vis a vis what an autumnal primary wave could have wreaked). In the train track / 1 person dead vs 10 person dead scenario, most posters here would pick no lever, leaving the train on the track to kill 10 people in hopes that "herd immunity" is not inevitable and that a vaccine can be developed for a kind of virus we have never successfully developed a vaccine before. Oh, and every non-endemic pandemic in global history has only ever ended when the population susceptible to death has died out completely.

This verifies the notion that the best path for any country NOT AN ISLAND and wishing to remain connected to the rest of the world (so islands too, really) is best advised to pursue a strategy that inoculates the least susceptible in the primary wave while exposing the least number of vulnerable, and that this should be implemented when mortality is LOWEST which correlates HIGHLY with seasonality re: COVID. Some scientific officials in the US and Sweden realized this early on, many refused to acknowledge this and in this thread you can see posters immediately before me STILL DO NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THIS.

Oh well. France went from 1,424 new daily hospitalizations one week ago to 2,314 today, a 62.5% increase. We could have saved MANY MORE PEOPLE if logic had been listened to and scientific reasoning but instead deranged fear-mongering will cost us millions of lives, concentrated in Europe in particular, and that is tragic.

Czechia's rolling weekly death toll has increased from 492 in the previous preceding weekly period to 748 as of this week. A 52% increase. It appears the daily death count will cross 1,000 about 35 days from today, if the exponential increase holds, as it appears it will.

Next week: 1,137 deaths
The next: 1,728
Whose: 2,627
Fault: 3,993
Is: 6,070
This: 9,226
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 03:20:56 PM by bbr2315 »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9543 on: October 27, 2020, 04:33:48 PM »
Random Effects Key to Containing Epidemics
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-random-effects-key-epidemics.html


Divide and conquer: Red curve shows the effect of 10 infected individuals in a population of 1 million people. If the population is broken into groups of 100,000 each, three subpopulations experience desynchronized outbreaks (shorter colored curves). In the remaining seven subgroups, gray curve, the outbreak is extinguished. Credit: Philip Bittihn and Ramin Golestanian

To control an epidemic, authorities will often impose varying degrees of lockdown. In a paper in the journal Chaos, scientists have discovered, using mathematics and computer simulations, why dividing a large population into multiple subpopulations that do not intermix can help contain outbreaks without imposing contact restrictions within those local communities.

"The key idea is that, at low infection numbers, fluctuations can alter the course of the epidemics significantly, even if you expect an exponential increase in infection numbers on average," said author Ramin Golestanian.

When infection numbers are high, random effects can be ignored. But subdividing a population can create communities so small that the random effects matter.

"When a large population is divided into smaller communities, these random effects completely change the dynamics of the full population. Randomness causes peak infection numbers to be brought way down," said author Philip Bittihn.

... A population of 8 million individuals with 500 initially infected ones was studied using an infectious contact rate seen for COVID-19 with mild social distancing measures in place. With these parameters, the disease spreads exponentially with infections doubling every 12 days.

"If this population is allowed to mix homogeneously, the dynamics will evolve according to the deterministic prediction with a peak around 5% infected individuals," said Bittihn.

However, if the population is split into 100 subpopulations of 80,000 people each, the peak percentage of infected individuals drops to 3%. If the community is split up even further to 500 subgroups of 16,000 each, the infection peaks at only 1% of the initial population.

... The main reason subdividing the population works is because the epidemic is completely extinguished in a significant fraction of the subgroups. This "extinction effect" occurs when infection chains spontaneously terminate.

Another way subdividing works is by desynchronizing the full population. Even if outbreaks occur in the smaller communities, the peaks may come at different times and cannot synchronize and add up to a large number.

"Stochastic effects on the dynamics of an epidemic due to population subdivision," Chaos (2020).
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0028972
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9544 on: October 27, 2020, 05:00:19 PM »
Quote
"This is a disaster, people are going to start dying, as a matter a fact they started dying already - not because they have the Covid, but from the Covid because the Covid has impaired the ability to deliver care. That's what is happening right now," Taveras concluded.
So even with deaths barely over a million, the "indirectly" part of my poll is coming into effect.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9545 on: October 27, 2020, 10:00:56 PM »
EU Says There Won’t Be Enough Vaccines for Europe Before the End of 2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/eu-warns-not-enough-covid-vaccines-for-all-in-europe-until-2022.html

The European Union doesn’t expect to have enough vaccines for everyone in the 27-country bloc until 2022, Reuters reports, citing an internal meeting that happened Monday.

“There will not be sufficient doses of Covid-19 vaccines for the entire population before the end of 2021,” a European Commission official said, according to Reuters.

The EU, which is home to about 450 million people, has already acquired 1 billion doses of potential Covid-19 vaccine and is working on getting another billion.

--------------------------------------

States Say They Need Billions to Distribute the Vaccine as Federal Funding Falls Short
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/states-will-need-billions-to-distribute-the-covid-vaccine-as-federal-funding-falls-short.html

The development of a coronavirus vaccine is nearing its final stages and public health departments across the U.S. are hastily preparing to distribute it amid a number of uncertainties. One of the more pressing and less certain issues for state leaders: How they’re going to pay for it.

So far, the Department of Health and Human Services has doled out $340 million for Covid-19 vaccine and flu planning, a department spokesperson told CNBC. HHS will cover the “most significant costs” of delivering and administering the vaccine, like the necessary protective gear and needles that will arrive in kits along with the doses.

State health officials, however, are asking for billions more in funding to distribute the vaccine. Several trade groups that represent state health agencies have asked Congressional leaders for at least $8.4 billion for vaccine distribution.

Those funds would largely go to increasing the health-care workforce to administer the vaccine, they say. Other costs include cold supply chain management for some of the vaccines, adding vaccination sites and updating data information systems, among other costs.

---------------------------------------

Hospitalizations Rising in 36 U.S. States
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/coronavirus-live-updates.html

The average number of new daily cases of the coronavirus in the United States hit another record, as 36 states reported worrying increases in the number of hospitalized patients.

The average number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 over the past seven days rose by at least 5% in 36 states as of Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the Covid Tracking Project.

“This is a harbinger of a very tough winter that’s coming,” Dr. Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said in a phone interview. “I think hospitals are going to be very, very stressed this fall and winter.”

... Wyoming, Montana, Tennessee, South Dakota, and North Carolina hit record highs in average daily new deaths Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

Wyoming reported three daily deaths, on a seven-day-average, a roughly sixfold increase from the prior week. The number of average daily deaths in Montana rose to 9, more than double from a week ago.

The record average daily deaths in Tennessee, South Dakota, and North Carolina reflected week-over-week increases of 63%, 49% and 39%, respectively.

Fifteen states hit record highs in average current hospitalizations Monday. Wyoming’s average hospitalizations rose 59% from last week, New Mexico saw a 49% increase and Ohio’s week-over-week growth was 23%.

This data provided by JHU is collected from dozens of state and local agencies that have varying reporting methodologies and levels of accuracy. Comparisons of the seven-day average help to smooth out inconsistencies in state reporting procedures.

----------------------------------------------



-----------------------------------------------

Swing States Seeing a Surge in Cases as Early Voting Rolls On
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/coronavirus-cases-surge-in-swing-states-as-early-voting-kicks-into-high-gear.html

Coronavirus cases are spiking in the most fiercely contested battlegrounds of the presidential election, just as voters cast their ballots in droves.

The latest wave of cases appears to be crashing hardest over states in the West and the Midwest, data show.

Among the most hotly contested swing states, Wisconsin is facing the largest increase in cases and deaths. In the past week, the Badger State reported a proportionally higher number of cases than nearly anywhere else in the country, except for in North Dakota and South Dakota, according to the CDC.

Other swing states, including Michigan and North Carolina, are also seeing an upswing in cases.

Fewer voters remain undecided than at this point in the 2016 cycle. But the recent surge in cases might be enough to push some of those swing-state voters toward Biden, who has consistently received higher marks than Trump in polls on the question of which candidate would better handle the pandemic.



Health-care workers in Michigan criticized President Donald Trump ahead of his planned rally in Lansing amid record daily new coronavirus cases.

“Covid-19 is not disappearing. Trump’s rally in Lansing only threatens to make things worse,” said Dr. Stephanie Markle, a critical care surgeon in Kalamazoo.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 02:14:54 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9546 on: October 27, 2020, 10:43:44 PM »
Herd immunity is not evil, and implying that YOU should be spared from the virus as society carries on in your absence as it HAS TO FOR YOU TO SURVIVE is incredibly ELITEST and shows a disconnect from fellow humanity.

When I walked to Midtown in May, pedestrians were almost exclusively people of color who were ensuring the city carried on and continued functioning so people like those still cloistered inside could continue to do so.

Thought this might be in response to my comment where I called herd immunity evil so I will respond.

I am a white male, 64 years old, and go to work every day in one of the poorest communites in Chicago, comprised entirely of persons of color. (30% Hispanic, 70% black) I work for a not for profit that is working with community groups to bring development to a community that has suffered from decades of disinvestment. I've installed gardens, boarded up vacant buildings, connected small businesses to available resources, contributed to the revival of a rich tradition in art, routinely connect with the homeless along the commercial district and direct them to emergency services. As a white man, I have lived a life of privilege, the kind of privilege that all white men benefit from in the U.S. I decided to use the last 15 years of my professional life giving back to the city that I love.

And herd immunity which you are suggesting is the best approach will hurt the most those for whom you profess such concern, communities of color.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 11:05:04 PM by Shared Humanity »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9547 on: October 27, 2020, 11:31:48 PM »
What EEGs Tell Us About COVID-19 and the Brain
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-eegs-covid-brain.html

Researchers from Baylor College of Medicine and the University of Pittsburgh have gathered more than 80 studies, reviewed the data, and identified commonalities that are helping to paint a broader picture of how COVID-19 affects the brain.

The findings, published in Seizure: European Journal of Epilepsy, focused on electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities of the brain. EEG is a test used to evaluate the electrical activity in the brain. Researchers found that about one-third of patients who were given an EEG had abnormal neuroimaging localized in the frontal lobe of the brain.

"We found more than 600 patients that were affected in this way. Before, when we saw this in small groups we weren't sure if this was just a coincidence, but now we can confidently say there is a connection," said Dr. Zulfi Haneef, assistant professor of neurology/neurophysiology at Baylor.

The main reason a patient would be given an EEG is if altered mentation is noted, meaning a patient might have a slowed reaction to stimuli, followed by seizure-like events, speech issues, confusion or inability to wake up after sedation. The most common findings from the EEG were slowing or abnormal electrical discharge, mostly in the frontal lobe.

Some of the EEG alterations found in COVID-19 patients may indicate damage to the brain that might not be able to be repaired after recovering from the disease.

"As we know, the brain is an organ that cannot regenerate, so if you have any damage it will more than likely be permanent or you will not fully recover," Haneef said.

Haneef found the location of the abnormal activity interesting.

"We know that the most likely entry point for the virus is the nose, so there seems to be a connection between the part of the brain that is located directly next to that entry point," he said. "Another interesting observation was that the average age of those affected was 61, one-third were female and two-thirds were males. This suggests that brain involvement in COVID-19 could be more common in older males.  ....

Arun Raj Antony et al, Systematic review of EEG findings in 617 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, Seizure (2020).
https://www.seizure-journal.com/article/S1059-1311(20)30332-0/fulltext
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9548 on: October 28, 2020, 06:09:55 AM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June. Apparent control is actual obfuscation via seasonality's modification of both transmission and mortality patterns. It is now spreading more slowly but doing so substantially more invisibly. If there is not a viable vaccine, Australia too, will be screwed (and it will be everywhere when they lift the interstate travel bans if they haven't already, I haven't been following re: Victoria).

Victoria got rid of Covid via masks, testing, tracing, and strong leadership.

The numbers started to drop before the weather started to warm up, and while I agree that it appears Covid thrives in colder weather and that it will have played one part of many in getting Covid under control in Victoria, it certainly wasn't the main reason.

Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.
Other regions of Australia get as cold as Melbourne but they didn't have outbreaks that got out of control.... their outbreaks were tested and traced out of existence.

What happened here was a combination of really bad luck with a few super spreaders and several trials of control that didn't work plus huge mismanagement of the Federally run aged care facilities. And aged care mismanagement is a big reason for the spread.... and to underline this point a bit more... Federally run aged care facilities with less funding, fewer nurses to patient rations, accounted for 100% of the deaths via Covid in Victoria.
Victorian run aged care had zero deaths.
This one thing alone highlights very strongly that managing the spread of Covid makes a massive difference and letting run wild is a terrible idea.
For some numbers.... Fed funded aged care facilities 650 +/- and Victoria funded is 190 +/-
655 old people died in federal funded aged care.... zero in Victoria funded aged care.

Also, State borders in Australia open or are restricted based on the circumstances. We also have open borders with New Zealand, who also has Covid under control through strong leadership, testing, tracing and masks when required.

Your line of thinking is just wrong in terms of herd immunity..... and herd immunity is just going to kill a lot of people, damage even more, and we don't even know how long natural immunity lasts so.... if it is only 3 months, it is just letting the virus do what it does so well.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9549 on: October 28, 2020, 09:52:04 AM »
Quote from: Shared Humanity
routinely connect with the homeless along the commercial district and direct them to emergency services. As a white man, I have lived a life of privilege, the kind of privilege that all white men benefit from in the U.S. I decided to use the last 15 years of my professional life giving back to the city that I love.

Dear Shared Humanity, you set a great example  :-*. I deeply respect your life decision. You must be a good human. And you likely get something in return as well, albeit not money but far more important 'things'.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?