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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 422351 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9550 on: October 28, 2020, 03:00:56 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World & USA Data

The rise is still remorseless...
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9551 on: October 28, 2020, 03:32:47 PM »
According to WHO, about 57 million people die annually.  The top causes are:
heart disease  -       9.5 million
stroke                     5.8
pulmonary disease - 3 million
lower respiratory   - 2.8
Alzheimer/dementia 2.0

At 6,000 deaths daily, COVID will be responsible for ~2.2 million. 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9552 on: October 28, 2020, 04:39:32 PM »
Quote from: Shared Humanity
routinely connect with the homeless along the commercial district and direct them to emergency services. As a white man, I have lived a life of privilege, the kind of privilege that all white men benefit from in the U.S. I decided to use the last 15 years of my professional life giving back to the city that I love.

Dear Shared Humanity, you set a great example  :-*. I deeply respect your life decision. You must be a good human. And you likely get something in return as well, albeit not money but far more important 'things'.

Took a 70% pay cut when I left my manufacturing career. I did this because I could afford to as my last kid was getting out of college. The last 6 years have been very rewarding. Regarding the 'good human' part, I now work shoulder to shoulder with people who dedicated their entire lives to this kind of work. I am humbled by them and the people we serve.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9553 on: October 28, 2020, 04:55:36 PM »
I'll echo Shared Humanitie's sentiment that Herd immunity is evil. 

However, much of the global economy is also not much better.  It's not entirely unexpected that the death cult of modern society would choose herd immunity over trying a different form of economic activity.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9554 on: October 28, 2020, 05:11:34 PM »
I'll echo Shared Humanitie's sentiment that Herd immunity is evil. 

Herd immunity is good. It is why humanity and other species were not wiped out by all those bugs of the past.

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9555 on: October 28, 2020, 06:16:22 PM »
I'll echo Shared Humanitie's sentiment that Herd immunity is evil. 

Herd immunity is good. It is why humanity and other species were not wiped out by all those bugs of the past.

I agree, but I think SH was referring to "reaching herd immunity at all costs"

Even Sweden health authorities recognized back in May that their current strategy is not for reaching herd immunity.

But the USA is a different "animal" here, and I wouldn't be surprises that elitist and capitalist forces are, in fact, feeding all these anti-mask, anti-science manifestations. That blunt approach to herd immunity is going to take the life of many.

Note that, even the public position wrt COVID-19 of a supposedly "pro-science" guy as Elon Musk has been, in beautiful terms, erratic, even aligning himself with Trump at times, because Elon is pro-business first and foremost, and this dilated crisis is very bad for his business. In his twisted billionaire mind, it is probably OK that millions die as soon as required, as long as his Tesla co survives
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 06:21:27 PM by sailor »
On the thin ice of modern life

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9556 on: October 28, 2020, 06:47:10 PM »
Herd immunity is not only evil, but also ridiculous.
Show me one virus of the class coronaviridae where we have developed herd immunity against.
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9557 on: October 28, 2020, 08:14:21 PM »
Herd immunity is not only evil, but also ridiculous.
Show me one virus of the class coronaviridae where we have developed herd immunity against.

The other corona viruses probably started out the same way, with a pandemic in humans. Ages ago.

And now they are just that awful nuisance of the common cold. Even men can survive man colds. The virologists never did much work on that. The pharmaceutical industry did not develop a cure.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9558 on: October 28, 2020, 08:31:28 PM »

The other corona viruses probably started out the same way, with a pandemic in humans. Ages ago.

And now they are just that awful nuisance of the common cold.

I totally agree with this

Yuha

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9559 on: October 28, 2020, 08:43:15 PM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June.

Except a few small differences:

1. Australia is separated from the rest of the world by oceans. Czechia is in the middle of Europe with open borders to several countries.

2. Air travel restrictions in Australia are much stricter.

3. The current 7 day average of daily cases in Australia (not just Melbourne) is 16 and has stayed below 25 for a month. In Czechia, a country with less than half the population of Australia, the 7 day moving average never dropped lower than 42 since mid March.

4. Australia has done nearly twice as many tests per million people than Czechia despite having just 4% of the number of cases per million.

I'm sure there are also other differences in quarantine, testing and tracing procedures but I'm not familiar with the details in either country.

The numbers are from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9560 on: October 28, 2020, 09:58:25 PM »
Herd immunity would be desirable , in any case, but that doesn’t mean we all have to throw into a bacanal to achieve it, especially those that we are well over forty.
Piet talks like an under-30 to me. Bbr too.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9561 on: October 28, 2020, 10:00:39 PM »
Herd immunity is not only evil, but also ridiculous.
Show me one virus of the class coronaviridae where we have developed herd immunity against.

The other corona viruses probably started out the same way, with a pandemic in humans. Ages ago.

And now they are just that awful nuisance of the common cold. Even men can survive man colds. The virologists never did much work on that. The pharmaceutical industry did not develop a cure.

MERS and SARS 1 are not the same as the common cold. COVID isn't either. COVID is demonstrating it is a vascular disease with likely long term health consequences for those who recover. Please follow the science.

And yes, I am concerned that there has been no vaccine developed for other coronavirus diseases although it was not really needed for the common cold. Let's hope they are successful with a vaccine.

For those who want the world economy opened wide, that's doable but good luck convincing Mom and Dad to visit their favorite Italian restaurant. Likely they would prefer to live out their golden years with family and close friends.


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9562 on: October 28, 2020, 10:07:39 PM »
I'll echo Shared Humanitie's sentiment that Herd immunity is evil. 

Herd immunity is good. It is why humanity and other species were not wiped out by all those bugs of the past.

I agree, but I think SH was referring to "reaching herd immunity at all costs"



That is exactly what I meant. We need to continue to do everything possible to slow transmission. Mask wearing by everyone would be nice. Herd immunity with a vaccine should be our objective. If it requires new vaccines every year, fine.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9563 on: October 29, 2020, 01:18:35 AM »
Piet talks like an under-30 to me.
60, actually.

MERS and SARS 1 are not the same as the common cold. COVID isn't either. COVID is demonstrating it is a vascular disease with likely long term health consequences for those who recover. Please follow the science.
There have been other viruses with serious sequelae. The virus of Awakings (movie, book by Oliver Sachs). The virus that caused ME/CFS in the '50-s. Polio and the post-polio syndrome. Countries did not shut down for that for months on end, again and again, and to no avail.

Especially in the US, the whole thing is ridiculously politicized.

I expect that I won't be able to avoid getting exposed to the virus this winter. It is what it is.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9564 on: October 29, 2020, 03:38:53 AM »
Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.

There is a real risk for another outbreak. The structural factors that you blame (funding etc) have not changed.

Would that mean another lockdown?

I wish you guys down there all the best. But that little island state up here in the North Atlantic also got in trouble after it had suppressed the virus. See https://www.covid.is/data

The expectation is that new outbreaks will happen. It is a certainty.
The difference is next time it will be attacked harder and faster than before.

And remember that the start of the Victoria outbreak began with two super spreaders and some really bad luck.

Still, if another outbreak happens and another lockdown is required, then that is what will happen

The structural issues are still there in aged care.... but.... there has been a deep dive investigation into it and it is scathing of the Federal funding and many other disturbing things. The problem isn't not knowing what happened, it never really was, the problem is this Govt doesn't care and they set the situation up that way to begin with. They are playing the blame game, talk the good talk, and then do nothing about it.
The same has happened with the investigations into the catastrophic fires last summer... they talk, they blame, the promise, and nothing has changed at all in terms of direction, funding, support for communities.... it just doesnt arrive.

In short, the Federal politicians are screwing us over and they don't seem to care..... our State Govt has been attacked relentlessly for months over the outbreak and the response by Murdoch media while the Fed Govt gets praise in spite of the facts.

So.... yeah, there will be other outbreaks and it will be the State Govts that combat it in spite of the Federal Govt wanting an open economy. It isn't much different to the US in this respect expect out State Govts are able to do more and flip the finger to the Federal Govt while doing what needs to be done.

In short, we know this isn't the last time, so while we are getting our freedom of movement back, we will enjoy it as much as possible for as long as possible while wearing our masks and respecting the ongoing social distancing for the foreseeable future. It is a small price to pay for no to little Covid, normal hospital loads and an economy that is opening up and a restricted version of business as usual.... until next time.

I just hope it isn't Melbourne again....
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 04:10:46 AM by Rodius »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9565 on: October 29, 2020, 10:21:40 AM »
A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Quote
The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9566 on: October 29, 2020, 11:20:46 AM »
More and more is being learnt about the virus, covid patients and effective treatments. Over time it will be less dangerous with or without a vaccine. We are already witnessing this.

That’s why it makes sense to try and contain the initial outbreak(s).

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9567 on: October 29, 2020, 11:30:33 AM »
US Hospital Systems Facing 'Imminent' Threat of Cyber Attacks, FBI Warns
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/10/us-government-warns-of-imminent-ransomware-attacks-against-hospitals/
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/28/us-healthcare-system-cyber-attacks-fbi

Federal agencies have warned that the US healthcare system is facing an “increased and imminent” threat of cybercrime, and that cybercriminals are unleashing a wave of extortion attempts designed to lock up hospital information systems, which could hurt patient care just as nationwide cases of Covid-19 are spiking.

https://us-cert.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/AA20-302A_Ransomware%20_Activity_Targeting_the_Healthcare_and_Public_Health_Sector.pdf

“CISA, FBI, and HHS have credible information of an increased and imminent cybercrime threat to US hospitals and healthcare providers,” Wednesday evening’s advisory stated. “CISA, FBI, and HHS are sharing this information to provide warning to healthcare providers to ensure that they take timely and reasonable precautions to protect their networks from these threats.”

Security firm Mandiant said much the same in its own notice, which provided indicators of compromise that targeted organizations can use to determine if they were under attack.

https://www.fireeye.com/blog/threat-research/2020/10/kegtap-and-singlemalt-with-a-ransomware-chaser.html

Mandiant Senior VP and CTO Charles Carmakal said in an email to reporters that the targeting was “the most significant cyber security threat we’ve ever seen in the United States.” He went on to describe the Russian hacking group behind the plans as “one of most brazen, heartless, and disruptive threat actors I’ve observed over my career.” Already several hospitals have come under attack in the past few days, he said.

In September, a ransomware attack hobbled all 400 US facilities of the hospital chain Universal Health Services, forcing doctors and nurses to rely on paper and pencil for record-keeping and slowing lab work. Employees described chaotic conditions impeding patient care, including mounting emergency room waits and the failure of wireless vital-signs monitoring equipment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/cyberattack-hits-major-u-s-hospital-system-n1241254

CNN said, it had confirmed that “Universal Health Services, a hospital health care service company based in Pennsylvania; St. Lawrence Health Systems in New York; and the Sky Lakes Medical Center in Oregon were all infected over the past few days.
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9568 on: October 29, 2020, 11:38:04 AM »
More and more is being learnt about the virus, covid patients and effective treatments. Over time it will be less dangerous with or without a vaccine. We are already witnessing this.

That’s why it makes sense to try and contain the initial outbreak(s).
Indeed, buying time is the best strategy. A vaccine is possible, better treatments, earlier detection which improves outcome. If herd inmunity is the only solution, it's better to apply it next year.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9569 on: October 29, 2020, 01:58:41 PM »
More and more is being learnt about the virus, covid patients and effective treatments. Over time it will be less dangerous with or without a vaccine. We are already witnessing this.

That’s why it makes sense to try and contain the initial outbreak(s).
Indeed, buying time is the best strategy. A vaccine is possible, better treatments, earlier detection which improves outcome. If herd inmunity is the only solution, it's better to apply it next year.

While daily cases have risen to almost half a million; up from under 100,000 in April, deaths have fallen.  Hence, either the virus has mutated to a less deadly strain or it was much more prevalent than we realized in the spring.  In either case, it is manageable.  However, that does not mean we can become complacent.  We must be vigilant as the northern hemisphere winter is likely to experience a rise in outbreaks.  As long as it can be contained, herd immunity can be achieved.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9570 on: October 29, 2020, 02:00:00 PM »
Piet talks like an under-30 to me.
60, actually.

MERS and SARS 1 are not the same as the common cold. COVID isn't either. COVID is demonstrating it is a vascular disease with likely long term health consequences for those who recover. Please follow the science.
There have been other viruses with serious sequelae. The virus of Awakings (movie, book by Oliver Sachs). The virus that caused ME/CFS in the '50-s. Polio and the post-polio syndrome. Countries did not shut down for that for months on end, again and again, and to no avail.

Especially in the US, the whole thing is ridiculously politicized.

I expect that I won't be able to avoid getting exposed to the virus this winter. It is what it is.

I was born during the height of the polio crisis and vividly remember the mass vaccination program as a kid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polio#:~:text=From%201916%20onward%2C%20a%20polio,United%20Kingdom%20were%20also%20affected.

"In the United States, the 1952 polio epidemic was the worst outbreak in the nation's history, and is credited with heightening parents’ fears of the disease and focusing public awareness on the need for a vaccine. Of the 57,628 cases reported that year 3,145 died and 21,269 were left with mild to disabling paralysis."

Bad? Yes. As bad as this current pandemic? Not even close.

(Population was 152 million in 1950 if you would like to do a per capita comparison.)
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 02:16:08 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9571 on: October 29, 2020, 02:11:45 PM »
A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Quote
The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

Thank you for this link. Very informative and helps us understand what we need to do to reduce the risk of infection and eliminate super spreader events.

Would like to mention that nothing in this article suggests any politicization of the pandemic. This is where politicians step into the conversation.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9572 on: October 29, 2020, 02:24:04 PM »
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Quote
If face masks are worn, four people are at risk of infection. Masks alone will not prevent infection if the exposure is prolonged.

That's an excellent article and demonstrates how irreversible this situation truly is.

This is one of the best visual examples of the spread of this virus in the air that I've seen.

Even if everyone is sitting in a room with masks on, most will end up getting infected after a few hours.

I do appreciate SH's insight on the polio outbreak. 

This virus does cause lasting long term damage, which is similar to polio in many ways, and is more infectious.  Polio is only transferred by the fecal/oral rout, while this one is in the air we breathe.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 02:30:44 PM by harpy »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9573 on: October 29, 2020, 02:29:12 PM »
There have been other viruses with serious sequelae. The virus of Awakings (movie, book by Oliver Sachs). The virus that caused ME/CFS in the '50-s. Polio and the post-polio syndrome. Countries did not shut down for that for months on end, again and again, and to no avail.

Especially in the US, the whole thing is ridiculously politicized.

I expect that I won't be able to avoid getting exposed to the virus this winter. It is what it is.

I was born during the height of the polio crisis and vividly remember the mass vaccination program as a kid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polio#:~:text=From%201916%20onward%2C%20a%20polio,United%20Kingdom%20were%20also%20affected.

"In the United States, the 1952 polio epidemic was the worst outbreak in the nation's history, and is credited with heightening parents’ fears of the disease and focusing public awareness on the need for a vaccine. Of the 57,628 cases reported that year 3,145 died and 21,269 were left with mild to disabling paralysis."

Bad? Yes. As bad as this current pandemic? Not even close.

(Population was 152 million in 1950 if you would like to do a per capita comparison.)

The polio epidemic was much worse. Those cases were real cases of illness, not like many of the asymptomatic positive tests now. The dead were mostly young people, not mostly frail 80+ like now. Paralysis left many young people in wheel chairs.

What is not included in those numbers is the post-polio syndrome.

My ex father-in-law got it when he was about 20 in Sweden. By his own accounts, he had been a very decent soccer player, and he attended the teacher seminary. But he got sick, recovered, but gave up on teaching, took over the farm instead. When I knew him, he was still working on the farm, struggling with increasing symptoms of post polio. He died when he was only 65.

The current pandemic will be mostly remembered for how it disrupted daily life.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9574 on: October 29, 2020, 02:31:42 PM »
Quote
The polio epidemic was much worse. Those cases were real cases of illness, not like many of the asymptomatic positive tests now. The dead were mostly young people, not mostly frail 80+ like now. Paralysis left many young people in wheel chairs.

Wow - so if elderly die, rather than children it's "not as bad"?

This virus is "worse" than polio, mostly because its more infectious and spread in the air.  The long term disability is similar to polio, actually.  There's brain damage, kidney damage, long term heart damage, and lung damage.

Comparable outcomes to polio, with a considerably higher infectivity rate and air spread.

You're totally mistaken.

Also - Most people who got infected with polio never developed symptoms.

Quote
It's estimated that 95 to 99 percent of people who contract poliovirus are asymptomatic. This is known as subclinical polio. Even without symptoms, people infected with poliovirus can still spread the virus and cause infection in others.

Reference:  https://www.rchsd.org/health-articles/polio/
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 02:44:36 PM by harpy »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9575 on: October 29, 2020, 02:48:04 PM »
Quote
The polio epidemic was much worse. Those cases were real cases of illness, not like many of the asymptomatic positive tests now. The dead were mostly young people, not mostly frail 80+ like now. Paralysis left many young people in wheel chairs.

Wow - so if elderly die, rather than children it's "not as bad"?

This virus is "worse" than polio, mostly because its more infectious and spread in the air.  The long term disability is similar to polio, actually.  There's brain damage, kidney damage, long term heart damage, and lung damage.

Comparable outcomes to polio, with a considerably higher infectivity rate and air spread.

You're totally mistaken.

Many people here refuse to read the research that is posted here. Approximately 5% of those who contract COVID require hospitalization.
 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Several studies show that 20% of those hospitalized suffer heart damage.

The U.S. has had over 9 million confirmed cases. The math is simple.That's 90,000 Americans who have recovered but suffered heart damage. I would look at kidney damage but I understand it would have absolutely no impact on those here who believe we should just get on with our lives. Also, it would just depress me.

Here is the thing. A lot of Americans are informed about the science. If those who argue the economy should be opened wide up got their way, restaurants, bars and theaters would still be empty. You can't force people to risk their lives for a decent Italian dinner at the local restaurant when they know they are putting their lives and health at risk.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 02:53:42 PM by Shared Humanity »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9576 on: October 29, 2020, 03:02:09 PM »
Quote
The polio epidemic was much worse. Those cases were real cases of illness, not like many of the asymptomatic positive tests now. The dead were mostly young people, not mostly frail 80+ like now. Paralysis left many young people in wheel chairs.

Wow - so if elderly die, rather than children it's "not as bad"?
Yes, obviously it is worse to die at 20 than at 90. Obviously.

Quote
This virus is "worse" than polio, mostly because its more infectious and spread in the air.  The long term disability is similar to polio, actually.  There's brain damage, kidney damage, long term heart damage, and lung damage.

Comparable outcomes to polio, with a considerably higher infectivity rate and air spread.

You're totally mistaken.

Also - Most people who got infected with polio never developed symptoms.

Quote
It's estimated that 95 to 99 percent of people who contract poliovirus are asymptomatic. This is known as subclinical polio. Even without symptoms, people infected with poliovirus can still spread the virus and cause infection in others.

Reference:  https://www.rchsd.org/health-articles/polio/

Indeed, basically everyone was exposed to polio. Today, with PCR, they would be counted as "cases". Diagnostics of heart damage etc was less advanced back then.

The present virus is obviously not an innocuous thing, but I fail to see that it is worse than polio. Or other infectious diseases: tuberculosis, ME/CFS, the Spanish flu, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica etc.

The present virus has been dominating society for almost a year now, with no end in sight. That response is way beyond in comparison with how societies responded to infectious in the previous century. Something has changed.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9577 on: October 29, 2020, 03:23:05 PM »

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9578 on: October 29, 2020, 03:40:02 PM »
More and more is being learnt about the virus, covid patients and effective treatments. Over time it will be less dangerous with or without a vaccine. We are already witnessing this.

That’s why it makes sense to try and contain the initial outbreak(s).
Indeed, buying time is the best strategy. A vaccine is possible, better treatments, earlier detection which improves outcome. If herd inmunity is the only solution, it's better to apply it next year.

While daily cases have risen to almost half a million; up from under 100,000 in April, deaths have fallen.  Hence, either the virus has mutated to a less deadly strain or it was much more prevalent than we realized in the spring.  In either case, it is manageable.  However, that does not mean we can become complacent.  We must be vigilant as the northern hemisphere winter is likely to experience a rise in outbreaks.  As long as it can be contained, herd immunity can be achieved.
I cannot comment about virus mutating, but it's obvious we have developed our ways fighting it.

In spring the general thinking seemed to be that we need to isolate and hunker down until a vaccine will magically relieve us of Covid for good. Then everything will go back to year 2019.

That also lead to the false economy or health debate. There is no such choice.

Risk groups should be vaccinated first. So when a vaccine eventually comes out it will most likely be one more tool to bring down mortality rate and the amount of serious cases. Eventually Covid will be relegated into obscurity by a combination of immunity through infection, immunity via vaccine and not minding it because part of a low-risk group.

Unfortunately it will take a while to reach that point. Until that we need to buy time and weather the storm.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9579 on: October 29, 2020, 03:47:17 PM »
Spread of a Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant Across Europe In Summer 2020
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-sars-cov-variant-europe-summer.amp



Researchers at the University of Basel, ETH Zürich in Basel and the SeqCOVID-Spain consortium analyzed and compared virus genome sequences collected from COVID-19 patients all across Europe to trace the evolution and spread of the pathogen (see box). Their analysis suggests that the variant originated in Spain during the summer. The earliest evidence of the new variant is linked to a super-spreading event among agricultural workers in the north-east of Spain. The variant moved into the local population, expanding quickly across the country, and now accounts for almost 80% of the sequences from Spain.

The researchers believe that the variant's expansion was facilitated by loosening travel restrictions and social distancing measures in summer.

From July, 20A.EU1 moved with travelers as borders opened across Europe, and has now been identified in twelve European countries. It has also been transmitted from Europe to Hong Kong and New Zealand. While initial introductions of the variant were likely from Spain directly, the variant may then have continued to spread onward from secondary countries.

Currently, 20A.EU1 accounts for 90% of sequences from the UK, 60% of sequences from Ireland, and between 30 and 40% of sequences in Switzerland and the Netherlands. This makes this variant currently one of the most prevalent in Europe. It has also been identified in France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Norway, and Sweden.

The new variant was first identified by Hodcroft during an analysis of Swiss sequences using the 'Nextstrain' platform, developed jointly by the University of Basel and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research center in Seattle, Washington. 20A.EU1 is characterized by mutations that modify amino-acids in the spike, nucleocapsid, and ORF14 proteins of the virus.

Though the present state of knowledge does not indicate 20A.EU1's spread was due to a change in transmissibility, the authors are currently working with virology labs to examine any potential impact the spike mutation, known as S:A222V, may have on the SARS-CoV-2 virus' phenotype. They also hope to soon receive access to data that would allow them to assess any clinical implications of the variant.

Emma B Hodcroft et al. Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020, (2020).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1

-------------------------------------------

NY Death Rates Have Dropped for Seriously Ill Covid Patients
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/health/Covid-survival-rates.html

Survival rates have improved with medical advances and less crowded hospitals, studies say. But the latest record-breaking surge in infections could reverse the gains.

Though the virus has been changing slowly as it spreads, and some have speculated that it has become more easily transmissible, most scientists say there is no solid evidence that it has become either less virulent, or more virulent. As elderly people sheltered inside and took precautions to avoid infection, however, more of the hospitalized patients were younger adults, who were generally healthier and more resilient. By the end of August, the average patient was under 40.

Were the lower death rates simply a function of the demographic changes, or a reflection of real progress and medical advances in treatment that blunted the impact of the new pathogen?

Researchers at NYU Langone Health who zeroed in on this question, analyzing the outcomes of more than 5,000 patients hospitalized at the system's three hospitals from March through August, concluded the improvement was real, not just a function of changing demographics.  Even when they controlled for differences in the patients’ age, sex, race, underlying health problems and severity of Covid symptoms — like blood oxygen levels at admission — they found that death rates had dropped significantly, to 7.6 percent in August, down from 25.6 percent in March.

“This is still a high death rate, much higher than we see for flu or other respiratory diseases,” ... “not only deadly — 10 times more deadly probably than a bad influenza — but it also has long-term complications. You don’t have that from the flu.”


While the studies evaluated the death rate, they did not assess the burden of what Dr. Phillips called “post-Covid syndrome,” which leaves many patients with lasting respiratory and neurologic problems, cardiac complications, and other lingering issues.

“It’s relatively easy to measure death, but that doesn’t capture all the other health issues,” said Dr. Preeti Malani, an infectious disease expert at the University of Michigan. Many hospital patients face grueling and protracted recoveries and may require long-term care, while even those who had mild bouts of disease are often left with continuing health problems, like headaches, chronic fatigue or cognitive problems. “It will take a long time to understand the full clinical spectrum of this disease.”

https://www.journalofhospitalmedicine.com/jhospmed/article/230561/hospital-medicine/trends-covid-19-risk-adjusted-mortality-rates?channel=327

----------------------------------------

It May Be Time to Reset Expectations On When We’ll Get a Covid-19 Vaccine
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/

The ambitious drive to produce Covid-19 vaccine at warp speed seems to be running up against reality. We all probably need to reset our expectations about how quickly we’re going to be able to be vaccinated.

Pauses in clinical trials to investigate potential safety issues, a slower-than-expected rate of infections among participants in at least one of the trials, and signals that an expert panel advising the Food and Drug Administration may not be comfortable recommending use of vaccines on very limited safety and efficacy data appear to be adding up to a slippage in the estimates of when vaccine will be ready to be deployed.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/23/fda-shows-signs-of-cold-feet-over-emergency-authorization-of-covid-19-vaccines/

“Could be January, could be later. We don’t know,” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an online interview with JAMA editor Howard Bauchner.

---------------------------------------

Dr. Fauci Warns of a ‘Whole Lot of Pain’ Due to Coronavirus Pandemic In the Coming Months
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/10/28/wisconsin-coronavirus-state-reports-3-815-new-cases-45-deaths/6059382002/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/battleground-states-trump-grapples-surging-opponent-coronavirus-n1245027

In the Midwest, cases and hospitalizations are surging at record numbers. Wisconsin had a 7-day positivity rate of 28% while Minnesota reported its highest number of Covid-19 hospitalizations to-date. Hospitalizations have tripled in less than three weeks in El Paso, Texas. Joel Hendricks, the Chief Medical Officer at El Paso's University Medical Center even warned about the possibility of rationing hospital care there during an interview with NBC'S Gabe Gutierrez.

"Rationing of care is the worst thing doctors ever want to talk about," said Hendricks. "Having said that, we have looked at that, we're in the process of looking at that."

... "There is very little appetite for a lockdown in this country," said Fauci. "There's going to be major pushback both from above and at the local level, however, what Melbourne did, what Australia did as a country, was very successful."

... Cities like New York and Philadelphia are more equipped to deal with the surge, whereas locations in the northwest and heartland are going to have a more difficult time with the pandemic.

"They never had the kind of hospital and intensive care facility and flexibility that some of the larger hospitals in larger cities have," said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "They're concerned that if the trajectory continues, they may be in a position where they are going to be strapped for things like intensive care beds," said Fauci.

-------------------------------------

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9580 on: October 29, 2020, 04:07:44 PM »
The mutations reported for the virus so far only influenced spread of spread and not virulence. I think it is indeed better treatment methods and also a part of society self sheltering keeping deaths down (lots of cases are in the younger ages which always have less deaths).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9581 on: October 29, 2020, 04:15:44 PM »

Yes, obviously it is worse to die at 20 than at 90. Obviously.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

What am I supposed to see?
That more than half of those who died with covid were over 75 years old?
That fewer than 1 % were less than 35 years old?
That deaths with covid were fewer than 1 % of the people that died under the age of 15?

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9582 on: October 29, 2020, 04:24:34 PM »
Spread of a Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant Across Europe In Summer 2020
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-sars-cov-variant-europe-summer.amp



Researchers at the University of Basel, ETH Zürich in Basel and the SeqCOVID-Spain consortium analyzed and compared virus genome sequences collected from COVID-19 patients all across Europe to trace the evolution and spread of the pathogen (see box). Their analysis suggests that the variant originated in Spain during the summer. The earliest evidence of the new variant is linked to a super-spreading event among agricultural workers in the north-east of Spain. The variant moved into the local population, expanding quickly across the country, and now accounts for almost 80% of the sequences from Spain.

The researchers believe that the variant's expansion was facilitated by loosening travel restrictions and social distancing measures in summer.

From July, 20A.EU1 moved with travelers as borders opened across Europe, and has now been identified in twelve European countries. It has also been transmitted from Europe to Hong Kong and New Zealand. While initial introductions of the variant were likely from Spain directly, the variant may then have continued to spread onward from secondary countries.

Currently, 20A.EU1 accounts for 90% of sequences from the UK, 60% of sequences from Ireland, and between 30 and 40% of sequences in Switzerland and the Netherlands. This makes this variant currently one of the most prevalent in Europe. It has also been identified in France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Norway, and Sweden.

The new variant was first identified by Hodcroft during an analysis of Swiss sequences using the 'Nextstrain' platform, developed jointly by the University of Basel and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research center in Seattle, Washington. 20A.EU1 is characterized by mutations that modify amino-acids in the spike, nucleocapsid, and ORF14 proteins of the virus.

Though the present state of knowledge does not indicate 20A.EU1's spread was due to a change in transmissibility, the authors are currently working with virology labs to examine any potential impact the spike mutation, known as S:A222V, may have on the SARS-CoV-2 virus' phenotype...
Dang. So a more contagious strain is a real possibility, and this one was the same that started in Spain in July and caused the early wave in August in Madrid.
Well, the good news is that it will subside as fast, as least so it is doing in Madrid, hopefully.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9583 on: October 29, 2020, 04:45:48 PM »
The mutations reported for the virus so far only influenced spread of spread and not virulence. I think it is indeed better treatment methods and also a part of society self sheltering keeping deaths down (lots of cases are in the younger ages which always have less deaths).

Which begs the question, why are there more cases in the younger ages today than in the spring?  It is entirely possible that younger people contracted the virus at similar rates, but were not tested because they were not seriously ill or asymptomatic.  Remember, testing was limited in the spring to those most ill.  Treatment may have helped, but the hospitalizations are also down significantly, which is not treatment related.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9584 on: October 29, 2020, 05:03:53 PM »

Indeed, basically everyone was exposed to polio. Today, with PCR, they would be counted as "cases". Diagnostics of heart damage etc was less advanced back then.
 
Do you have evidence for that?  Polio is spread by the fecal-oral route.  If there was that much fecal-oral transmission going on in the 1950s, we'd have had simultaneous mass epidemics of cholera, dysentery, and typhoid.  We didn't.

What the world has gained by striving to control outbreaks of Covid is a much lower mortality rate now than we had in the spring.  With further incremental improvements in treatment, we can look forward to further taming of this disease.  At some point, it may indeed be reasonable to "let it rip."  But not now.  Except, perhaps, in Africa.  For reasons nobody seems to understand, it's not been a virulent infection there.

Yes, lives have been disrupted some.  Essential economic activities, however, have been largely uninterrupted.  Nations that have had a less rigorous approach to control have not had less severe economic damage. The world has lost very little by the interruption of the tourist industry, for example. The right approach to the economic suffering is not to let the epidemic flourish, but to provide something like a Universal Basic Income.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9585 on: October 29, 2020, 05:11:00 PM »

Indeed, basically everyone was exposed to polio. Today, with PCR, they would be counted as "cases". Diagnostics of heart damage etc was less advanced back then.
 
Do you have evidence for that?  Polio is spread by the fecal-oral route.  If there was that much fecal-oral transmission going on in the 1950s, we'd have had simultaneous mass epidemics of cholera, dysentery, and typhoid.  We didn't.

What the world has gained by striving to control outbreaks of Covid is a much lower mortality rate now than we had in the spring.  With further incremental improvements in treatment, we can look forward to further taming of this disease.  At some point, it may indeed be reasonable to "let it rip."  But not now.  Except, perhaps, in Africa.  For reasons nobody seems to understand, it's not been a virulent infection there.

Yes, lives have been disrupted some.  Essential economic activities, however, have been largely uninterrupted.  Nations that have had a less rigorous approach to control have not had less severe economic damage. The world has lost very little by the interruption of the tourist industry, for example. The right approach to the economic suffering is not to let the epidemic flourish, but to provide something like a Universal Basic Income.
Maybe Africa is predominantly young, and not obese.... and the infections aren't recorded anyways when malaria, HIV, etc are killing way more as-is.

Saying "we don't know why Africa has no cases" is intellectual dishonesty.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9586 on: October 29, 2020, 05:45:34 PM »
Ron Conte's revised predictions:
Quote
But since August and Sept. were lower, and October higher, that implies the curve is higher in Winter. Revised prediction for cases of Covid-19 in Winter of 2020 to 2021 (at 5 to 10% higher).

Nov. 2.44 to 2.55 million cases
Dec. 3.15 to 3.3 million cases
Jan. 3.5 to 3.7 million cases
Feb. 3.6 to 3.75 million cases
Mar. 3.32 to 3.83 million cases
Apr. 2.85 to 3.0 million cases
May 2.3 to 2.4 million cases
Jun. 1.5 to 1.6 million cases
https://ronconte.com/2020/10/28/my-covid-19-predictions-for-this-winter/
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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9587 on: October 29, 2020, 06:29:14 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK data

Daily new cases might be stabilising at a bit over 20k per day.
Daily deaths average still rising strongly - 7 day average now 230

No data on recoveries.

Italy data
Daily new cases still rising strongly - 7 day daily average now 21,500
Daily deaths average  still rising strongly - 7 day average now 165

Active cases now more than total recovered since day 1 of the outbreak.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9588 on: October 29, 2020, 06:29:47 PM »
If you are not ignorant, this is not unexpected.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.28.20221176v1

The unexpected spectacular 2020 October COVID-19 boost in European countries correlated with the latitude, but not with the temperature.

Abstract

Many European countries underwent an unexpected spectacular boost of the daily reported new COVID-19 cases between September 20th and October 18th, imposing in emergency new confinement rules in order to prevent hospitals saturation. The present study shows no correlation between the country COVID-19 boost date and its 2 weeks preceding temperature, but shows an impressive correlation with the country latitude. As the daily UV insolation earlier decreases in autumn for higher latitudes, this is an additional observation supporting the impact of low vitamin blood D level on the respiratory impairment in COVID-19 disease.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9589 on: October 29, 2020, 06:34:26 PM »
Scientist infects himself with Covid-19 TWICE to study antibodies - and says results show that hopes of herd immunity are futile

A professor who in an experiment infected himself with Covid-19 to become ill with the virus for a second time says hopes for herd immunity are overblown.

Dr Alexander Chepurnov, 69, first caught coronavirus on a skiing trip to France in February.

After recovering back home in Siberia without requiring hospitalisation, he and his team at the Institute of Clinical and Experimental Medicine in Novosibirsk launched a study into coronavirus antibodies.

They studied 'the way antibodies behaved, how strong they were, and how long they stayed in the body' and found they decrease rapidly, he said.

Dr Alexander Chepurnov (pictured), 69, in an experiment infected himself with Covid-19 to become ill with the virus for a second time and now says hopes for herd immunity are overblown   

He decided to examine the probability of reinfection.

In the interests of science, Chepurnov became a human guinea pig and deliberately exposed himself to COVID-19 patients wearing no protection, he said.

He said: 'My body's defences fell exactly six months after I got the first infection. The first sign was a sore throat.'

His second infection was far more serious and he was hospitalised.

He said: 'For five days, my temperature remained above 39C. I lost the sense of smell, my taste perception changed.

'On the sixth day of the illness, the CT scan of the lungs was clear, and three days after the scan, the X-ray showed double pneumonia.'

'The virus went away rather quickly. After two weeks it was no longer detected in the nasopharyngeal or in other samples.'

His conclusion based on his own case is that collective or herd immunity is a forlorn hope.

The virus is here to stay, and while vaccines may give immunity this is likely to be temporary.


He said: 'We need a vaccine that can be used multiple times, a recombinant vaccine will not suit.

'Once injected with an adenoviral vector-based vaccine, we won't be able to repeat it because the immunity against the adenoviral carrier will keep interfering.'

The professor formerly worked at State Research Vector Centre of Virology and Biotechnology in Siberia, makers of Russia's second vaccine against Covid-19 known as EpiVacCorona which will require repeat injections to maintain immunity, say its proponents.

http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/professor-69-risked-his-life-by-deliberately-catching-covid-19-to-test-his-immune-response/
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 06:40:54 PM by harpy »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9590 on: October 29, 2020, 06:36:56 PM »

Indeed, basically everyone was exposed to polio. Today, with PCR, they would be counted as "cases". Diagnostics of heart damage etc was less advanced back then.
 
Do you have evidence for that?  Polio is spread by the fecal-oral route.  If there was that much fecal-oral transmission going on in the 1950s, we'd have had simultaneous mass epidemics of cholera, dysentery, and typhoid.  We didn't.

I read somewhere that polio had become more of a problem because of improvements in hygiene. But still, the oral vaccine works partly by secondary infections with the attenuated virus. 

Polio was a less common disease than the others you mention because few infection cause paralysis.

Quote
What the world has gained by striving to control outbreaks of Covid is a much lower mortality rate now than we had in the spring.  With further incremental improvements in treatment, we can look forward to further taming of this disease.  At some point, it may indeed be reasonable to "let it rip."  But not now.  Except, perhaps, in Africa.  For reasons nobody seems to understand, it's not been a virulent infection there.

Yes, lives have been disrupted some.  Essential economic activities, however, have been largely uninterrupted.  Nations that have had a less rigorous approach to control have not had less severe economic damage. The world has lost very little by the interruption of the tourist industry, for example. The right approach to the economic suffering is not to let the epidemic flourish, but to provide something like a Universal Basic Income.
Even here in Sweden, cultural life is completely disrupted. And sports. And all the clubs and associations, especially those of the elderly.

Also education. And life in general is much less enjoyable.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 07:21:31 PM by pietkuip »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9591 on: October 29, 2020, 08:07:57 PM »
Typical coronavirus can reinfect after the initial antibody response wanes.  For herd immunity to work without a vaccine you would need everyone infected within a small 6-month time frame, and afterward, you still have to do massive testing and contact tracing to watch for reemergence.

Without a concerted effort, C19 will attack every year potentially getting worse every year.

This will not go away by itself.

We must aim to eradicate it.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9592 on: October 29, 2020, 08:20:13 PM »
My mother was one of the last two patients in the polio ward in our county in 1955 (with no apparent ill-consequences).  She is being carefully sequestered by my brothers and a (retired) doctor sister-in-law.  My mom recently commented how Covid-19 is minor compared to the 1918-20 flu (17-100 m dead in 3 years), the AIDS epidemic (up to 3.7 m deaths per year since 1975, recently still over 750,000/year), and various plagues, like 1665-6 Great Plague of London (only 100,000 dead in 18 months, but that was a quarter of the city's population).  Minor or not, she is still being protected!
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Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9593 on: October 29, 2020, 08:48:57 PM »
Archimid, I don’t see how you intend to control half the US population that will neither wear masks or get a vaccine either. Maybe this is uniquely a US problem but eradication isn’t possible unless a sizable portion of our population changes its skin. No change in leadership will change some lines already drawn. 
 I don’t know anyone planning on getting vaccinated until they are sure it is safe. If everyone needs shots every year then there will be too many places in the world that will serve as reservoirs of Coronavirus, like the flyover part of the US( even though nobody is flying ).
 If the Siberian Times researcher that re-exposed himself is correct and there is no long lasting immunity then we are in for many years of Covid .
 So how to live with current conditions as the new normal ? How to plan months from now or years from now? Will the hard right still refuse masks a year from now ? Because if they don’t change this is the new normal. The economy can’t take the new normal for long. Best prepare for a depression.
That is if the rest of the world expects the US consumer to return to growth ,growth, growth, we have a Covid problem and there is no solution. Sometimes a country needs to act together and right now I am very skeptical.
 

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9594 on: October 29, 2020, 09:45:57 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
UK data
Daily new cases might be stabilising at a bit over 20k per day.
Daily deaths average still rising strongly - 7 day average now 230


Not at all sure about "stabilising".

Definitely different rates in UK:
Deaths fairly steady 50% growth per week
Hospitalisations ~35% growth per week
Cases ~20% growth per week

Deaths are delayed so maybe they will follow cases or hospitalisations to a lower rate of growth soon.

However, fairly sure these rates have continued too long for delay from case confirmed to hospitalisations to be the explanation for the difference in growth rates.

Increased virulence is an unlikely explanation I think and hope. Herd immunity effects also unlikely.

A more likely explanation between cases and hospitalisations would be that testing isn't keeping up with level of cases (even though testing has increased from ~185k 1 Sept to ~310k now).

Given this likely explanation we might also wonder about the hospitalisation growth rate. We might reasonably expect triage decisions to be less inclined to admit to hospital when there are less available beds/staff etc. So the hospitalisation growth rate may well be beginning to understate the infections growth rate.

While I would prefer to be able to give a more optimistic conclusion, a rate of growth somewhere between the hospitalisations 35% growth per week and the deaths growth rate of 50% seems more likely to be correct.

Your "might be stabilising" seems far too hopeful to me.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9595 on: October 29, 2020, 10:55:47 PM »
If you are not ignorant, this is not unexpected.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.28.20221176v1

The unexpected spectacular 2020 October COVID-19 boost in European countries correlated with the latitude, but not with the temperature.

Abstract

Many European countries underwent an unexpected spectacular boost of the daily reported new COVID-19 cases between September 20th and October 18th, imposing in emergency new confinement rules in order to prevent hospitals saturation. The present study shows no correlation between the country COVID-19 boost date and its 2 weeks preceding temperature, but shows an impressive correlation with the country latitude. As the daily UV insolation earlier decreases in autumn for higher latitudes, this is an additional observation supporting the impact of low vitamin blood D level on the respiratory impairment in COVID-19 disease.
It’s probably a new mutation though.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9596 on: October 29, 2020, 10:59:30 PM »
My daughter who lives in Utrecht says that everyone she knows takes vitamin D, especially in the fall. Is that the perception of others living in the Netherlands and other countries in northern latitudes?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9597 on: October 29, 2020, 11:30:04 PM »
My daughter who lives in Utrecht says that everyone she knows takes vitamin D, especially in the fall. Is that the perception of others living in the Netherlands and other countries in northern latitudes?

As a kid in the Netherlands, yes, that it was my mother gave us "when the r was in the month". I understood back then that it was for kids.

Now living in Sweden, I don't hear much about it. Our daughter never had this. But here it is added to milk and to "butter".
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 01:40:56 AM by pietkuip »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9598 on: October 30, 2020, 12:23:15 AM »
Belgium May Need International Aid as Coronavirus Hospitalisations Surge, Epidemiologist Warns
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/138109/belgium-may-need-international-aid-as-coronavirus-hospitalisations-surge-epidemiologist-warns-pierre-van-damme-university-antwerp-germany-icu-capacity-health-care-system-army-hotels-beds/

Belgium may require to requisition hotels, deploy the army and call for international aid as the coronavirus pandemic continues to push the national health system over the edge of collapse, one epidemiologist said.

“We are going to have to get very creative to limit damages in our hospitals and nursing homes as much as possible,”  Epidemiologist Pierre Van Damme, professor of medicine at the University of Antwerp, said.

On Wednesday, as the rise of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations outpaced governments’ rushed attempts to rein them in, Van Damme sound the alarm, saying the country’s health care could crack “within ten days.”

Officials with national health institute Sciensano echoed his warnings on Wednesday, with spokesperson Steven Van Gucht saying in the daily press conference that, with figures doubling every eight days, the country 2,000 intensive care beds would all be full by next week.

Van Damme, who in mid-April warned that Belgium was yet to reach peak infections, said leaders may need to call for international assistance to face the growing wave of infections and looked to Germany as a potential provider.

‘European solidarity’: Belgium Will Send Covid-19 Patients to Germany

From now on, Belgian hospitals can send coronavirus patients to hospitals in Germany if necessary, Federal Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke told the House on Thursday.

Vandenbroucke made arrangements about the possible transfer of patients with his German federal colleague Jens Spahn, as well as with the German regions closest to Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate.

On Thursday morning, national health institute Sciensano announced that a total of 5,924 coronavirus patients were admitted to hospital, which is about 200 more than the total of 5,759 Covid-19 patients who were in hospital during the peak in April.

In a last-minute change, Belgium’s Hospital & Transport Surge Capacity body ordered hospitals to skip over Phase 2A and move straight into Phase 2B by Monday 2 November, which will require hospitals to create 500 new intensive care beds and 300 beds for intensive oxygen therapy and to cancel more non-urgent procedures and consultations.

The sudden hike-up into the last tier of the national Covid-19 hospital management plan underscores growing concerns over the capacities of the health care system to keep pace with spiraling infections and hospitalisations.

“At this point, we do not know what the federal government’s plans are beyond the Phase 2B, even as all indicators send the same clear message: that hospital ICUs will reach their maximum capacity around 10 November.”

“It is pitiful to see history repeating itself,” Marc Noppen, CEO of UZ Brussel university hospital, said in a press release, adding: “but the influx of Covid-19 patients leaves us with no choice.”

https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/138220/belgian-hospitals-told-to-skip-to-last-phase-of-covid-19-plan-as-icus-fill-up-surge-capacities-icu-beds-last-phase-2b-uz-brussel-marc-noppens-worst-case-scenario-emergency-coronavirus-plan/
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9599 on: October 30, 2020, 01:17:46 AM »
As Utah's COVID-19 Hospitalizations Soar, Hospitals Look at Possible 'Crisis Standards' Plan
https://www.ksl.com/article/50038036/as-utahs-covid-19-hospitalizations-soar-hospitals-look-at-possible-crisis-standards-plan

SALT LAKE CITY — The president of Utah's hospital association warns that Utah may soon reach its maximum occupancy for intensive care unit beds based on the worsening trends reported at hospitals already and the growing number of COVID-19 cases.

"We just know that hospitalizations follow (the) disease, and so we have to think in the next week or two that we're going to be at the maximum of even our contingency planning for ICU beds," said Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, in an interview with KSL on Sunday.

It's why Bell met with Gov. Gary Herbert and state health department officials last week to discuss the Crisis Standards of Care Guidelines — a list of procedures for medical providers to follow in the case of an emergency that overwhelms medical facilities — and when hospitals might need to implement it.

If enacted, it's a plan for determining when some patients might be denied care or moved out of ICU beds to make room for others who might have better outcomes.

Hospital Rationing Plan: https://coronavirus-download.utah.gov/Health/Utah-Crisis-Standards-of-Care-Guidelines-v7-08182020.pdf

Utah entered this week with a running seven-day average of 1,493.6 new cases per day — an all-time high. The seven-day running percentage of positive tests per test administered reached 17% through Oct. 20, which was also an all-time high.

The latter figure is backdated to account for the results of all tests conducted for the date. It's also an important statistic because it provides an indication of how many cases could still be out there underreported.

"When you have a spread rate that exceeds 15% — some days 20% — you know that's a proxy for many other cases beyond those who have been tested," Bell said. "We truly have a pandemic loose in our community, and in our state, and we just know where it's going."

... Right now, 69.2 percent of all ICU beds in the state are occupied by coronavirus patients, according to the Utah Department of Health. If that number reaches 72 percent, "major strains" will be placed on the health care system. When 85 percent capacity is reached, "Utah will be functionally out of staffed ICU beds, indicating an overwhelmed hospital system," according to the health department

... "People are so worried about the government imposing a lockdown; but at some point, the disease is bad enough that people lock themselves down. We can (avoid) this through masking and social distancing. We know how to do it. ... We just need to do it."

–Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association

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Based on Utah's current guidelines, an individual's age can be used as a factor after he or she has gone through the first three steps of triage and a tiebreaker is necessary

Tiebreakers: Because younger persons generally have better short-term mortality outcomes than older persons with the same clinical condition, when after individualized assessments of short-term mortality risk, not all patients with similar MSOFAs can be given ICU/ventilator care, relative youth may be used as a tiebreaker.

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'Closing Window of Opportunity' to Avoid Rationing Care, Idaho Hospitals Say
https://www.idahopress.com/news/local/closing-window-of-opportunity-to-avoid-rationing-care-idaho-hospitals-say/article_c55e6f92-e2f9-52dc-8b56-980d7348501e.html

Health leaders in Idaho say if hospital capacity continues to decline, the state may need to activate its “crisis standards of care” plan to ration care.

“We’re not in crisis conditions yet, but we are very close,” said Dr. Steven Nemerson, the chief clinical officer at Saint Alphonsus Health System, during a press conference on Tuesday.

The Idaho Crisis Standards Of Care Plan outlines who to prioritize for care when there are scarce resources. Like that of nearly all other states, Idaho’s framework emphasizes a patient’s health, likelihood of survival and age when considering whether they should be prioritized for medical care such as access to a ventilator or medications.

“If we have to execute crisis standards, then it’s a demonstration of the failure of the community and our leaders to step in and basically turn this situation around," Nemerson said.

To activate the crisis standards, the committee that wrote Idaho’s guidelines — the State of Idaho's Disaster Medical Advisory Committee — would need to ask the governor to make a declaration. During Gov. Brad Little's press conference on Monday, State Epidemiologist Dr. Christine Hahn said the committee would possibly convene this week.

... Utah sent the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare a warning that it might not be open to out of state transfers for much longer. When asked where patients might be transferred after Utah, the hospital officials didn’t have a clear answer.

“Where would we divert them to?” asked Souza. “Utah has made it clear that they're not able to accept patients. Eastern Washington is rapidly filling up the hospitals in western Washington.”

When it comes to the possibility of setting up a field hospital like some other states recently have, hospital leaders said it’s unlikely at this point. They wondered where all the staff to work at such a facility would come from when nearly full hospitals are already short-staffed and struggling to find traveling nurses to meet their needs.


https://www.kunc.org/2020-10-29/hospitals-around-the-mountain-west-reach-covid-19-breaking-point



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Gov. Polis: Colorado to 'Exceed All Existing Hospital Capacity' By End of Year, Models Suggest
https://gazette.com/medical/polis-colorado-to-exceed-all-existing-hospital-capacity-by-end-of-year-models-suggest/article_bb7fcd96-188d-11eb-9556-331427612cdb.html

Colorado is set to "exceed all existing hospital capacity by the end of the year," Gov. Jared Polis warned Tuesday, citing modeling as the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases hit an all-time high.

"This thing's quick, and we need to change the way we live," Polis beseeched during a news conference, imploring residents to stay home unless necessary, wear masks, wash hands and keep a social distance.

If Coloradans are heeding his advice, the data doesn't reflect it. The state recorded 1,433 new cases Monday and 1,211 cases Tuesday after setting a high of 2,123 cases Sunday — more than double the springtime peak of 966 cases on April 23.

Nearly 650 Coloradans are hospitalized, with nearly 80% of intensive care unit beds across the state in use, as are nearly 40% of adult ventilators. Hospitalizations have steadily increased for nearly the past two months, he added.

As the state's positivity rate — the percentage of positive cases among those tested — soars beyond the 5% cap recommend by the World Health Organization, officials are again looking at the "surge capacity," which would allow it to add thousands of hospital beds in four weeks. The positivity rate in the state is approaching 7%, according to Polis.

That capacity will depend on the availability of personnel and supplies, Polis cautioned, adding that "many hospitals are already making plans to begin the call on increasing ICU beds."

Mortality rates for COVID patients who enter the hospital dropped to 4% this month, down from upwards of 15% this spring, thanks to advances in care, Polis said.

Still, if you contract the virus and require hospitalization, "you have a 4 to 7% chance of not making it out," he said.

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« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 01:46:56 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late