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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 422386 times)

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9600 on: October 30, 2020, 02:23:59 AM »
My daughter who lives in Utrecht says that everyone she knows takes vitamin D, especially in the fall. Is that the perception of others living in the Netherlands and other countries in northern latitudes?
According to the excess mortality graphs [1] I strongly suspect that not enough folks in the Netherlands take Vitamin D supplement: There are significant bumps of excess mortality in winter, very likely due to influenza. This is in striking difference to Norway, Finland, Sweden, where Vitamin D fortified food is standard: No excess mortality bumps there.
[1] https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

It looks the recommended Vit D dosage is often too low. Dr. Campbell reports this from UK, and here in Germany I take 2-3x the amount recommended on the package, 1900 IU/d. Dr. Fauci takes 6000.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9601 on: October 30, 2020, 05:50:40 AM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
UK data
Daily new cases might be stabilising at a bit over 20k per day.
Daily deaths average still rising strongly - 7 day average now 230


Not at all sure about "stabilising".

Definitely different rates in UK:
Deaths fairly steady 50% growth per week
Hospitalisations ~35% growth per week
Cases ~20% growth per week



There's been a bunch of massive outbreaks in universities which is sort of stabilising and is a pretty substantial blip on top of the general pattern of cases. Being on the downside of that blip is masking how fast the rest of the country is increasing.

There's a lot of detailed data on education in this week's PHE surveillance report, the freshers age cohort alone was generating about 9k positives per week for a couple of weeks with positivities 30-35%. The picture in schools isn't pretty either, but its more like the general pattern, while it looks to me like many universities must have just let it rip and its burnt out in them because everyone has had it.  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930819/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W44.pdf

There's a hint in the regional data that older people in the worst hit areas (the NW) started to be more careful 3 weeks ago, and that might be bending the hospitalisation curve by now. Elsewhere everyone looks to still be heading up at much the same sort of doubling rate though.

Hospital acquired infections are a problem again, which may be another reason the death rate has been going up faster than the hospitalisation rate. Just one outbreak was responsible for 50% of deaths in Wales between mid-September and mid-October. The rate of hospital outbreaks has been going up in England, but I haven't seen data on deaths from them.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9602 on: October 30, 2020, 10:11:37 AM »
Archimid, I don’t see how you intend to control half the US population that will neither wear masks or get a vaccine either.

If the problem was half the population, then it can't be done.  If a sufficiently large percentage of the population complies (60%-80%), r can be pushed below 1.

Obviously the higher the compliance, the lower the r, but this is not an all or nothing proposition. 
if large majorities do the hard work of keeping the sanitary measures, the minorities gain herd immunity ( actual herd immunity not the fake herd immunity peddled by Trump et al).

Once numbers are low enough, contact tracing,  massive testing and monitoring must clean up the details.

Quote
Maybe this is uniquely a US problem but eradication isn’t possible unless a sizable portion
of our population changes its skin
.

Nah. "People" change their minds as the wind blows. Without Trump's malicious propaganda most people wouldn't be as willing to suck covid as they are. Privilege is blinding. C19 is a stealth killer.

The same thing that happened in April will happen now. Once hospitals and morgues get filled to capacity and even the elite is losing family and friends, they will change their tune. Winter will make that happen.

Quote
No change in leadership will change some lines already drawn.


Nope. On the contrary. Many coronavirus risk deniers, upon losing family and friends go into deeper more deranged denial. They will have to blame others for the loss they caused or lose their minds. But many will come to realize their fault in the matter and try to make amends. That will be enough.

But the change in leadership and the reveal of the nasty truths behind the crimes and lies of this administration many minds will be changed before it is too late.

That's why Trump et all will steal the elections

Quote
I don’t know anyone planning on getting vaccinated until they are sure it is safe.

Put me on that list. No vaccine for me or until a few million doses and some time passes. Masking, distancing and hand washing is a small price to pay for a few more months.

Quote
If everyone needs shots every year then there will be too many places in the world that will serve as reservoirs of Coronavirus, like the flyover part of the US( even though nobody is flying ).

Vaccine immunity and natural immunity are two very different things. Often vaccine immunity lasts longer and provides better protection than natural immunity. From what I've seen from typical coronavirus vaccines, that protection can last up to 5 years.

Vaccines must be used in conjunction with sanitary measures to eradicate C19 from the world. Once eradicated, strong worldwide monitoring must remain. Testing and contact tracing must be the first line of defense, but local outbreaks can be contained by vaccination boosts.

Quote
If the Siberian Times researcher that re-exposed himself is correct and there is no long lasting immunity then we are in for many years of Covid .

I wouldn't put too much weight on that story. One case is nothing. My guess on C19 immunity is based on typical coronavirus immunity. It lasts about a year, then it may repeat. If long term long damage occurred in the past, the damage may be accumulative.

Look at the age bias. C19 gets worse with age. C19 is opportunistic. C19 creates permanent lung damage. Nah. This can't become endemic.


Quote
So how to live with current conditions as the new normal ? How to plan months from now or years from now? Will the hard right still refuse masks a year from now ?

It all depends on November 3rd. If there a huge blue wave that makes it impossible for Trump to steal the elections, then maybe, just maybe, Trump enablers will stop the misinformation and concentrate on hiding their crimes. Then, the known technics of epidemic control can be applied in the US and worldwide seeding of C19 may end. By February next year, this whole C19 nightmare may be over like it is in Asia.


If Trump successfully steals the elections I'm sure Trump will provide as many substandard hospital beds, refrigerated trailers, and furnace fuel as necessary to keep appearances. We may have to wear masks for a few more years to avoid the C19 meat grinder.
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9603 on: October 30, 2020, 10:24:52 AM »
Vaccine immunity and natural immunity are two very different things. Often vaccine immunity lasts longer and provides better protection than natural immunity. From what I've seen from typical coronavirus vaccines, that protection can last up to 5 years.

I did not think there were vaccines for any coronaviruses?

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9604 on: October 30, 2020, 10:52:08 AM »
No, there aren't any "commercial" vaccines licensed against coronaviruses, but the reasons seem to be economic, not scientific challenges. Common cold CoVs are not worth the risk to vaccinate against. MERS and SARS are not contagious enough to provide a large market.

See here:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7177048/

Quote
Reasons for the lack of commercial and effective vaccines for SARS and MERS are varied. In the case of MERS, it is likely that the vaccine development was delayed because of the scarcity of suitable and cost-effective small animal models during pre-clinical experimentation. In addition, it is probable that a vaccine has not been delivered because of the low interest in investing in a vaccine for a disease that has produced relatively low and geographically centralized cases (compared with other more global and persistent infectious diseases such as influenza, HIV and tuberculosis). This last factor might have also contributed to the lack of a vaccine for SARS, in the sense that it was considered pointless to continue investing in a vaccine for a disease whose cases ceased to be reported in 2004

However, in general, vaccines produce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response than natural immunity.  They are designed that way.

From what, I've glossed over, we can expect up to 5 years of good immunity from SARS2 vaccines. More than enough time to make this thing extinct, as we should have done in January.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9605 on: October 30, 2020, 11:48:53 AM »
However, in general, vaccines produce a stronger and longer-lasting immune response than natural immunity.  They are designed that way.

From what, I've glossed over, we can expect up to 5 years of good immunity from SARS2 vaccines. More than enough time to make this thing extinct, as we should have done in January.
In January, this virus had already spread out all over the world.

The virologists and immunologists that I read are not nearly as confident as you are. As I understand them, infections (with illness) tend to produce better immunity than vaccination.

It is also difficult to "design" an immune response to a vaccine. The immune system is not sufficiently well understood for that. And then there are all the individual differences between people: age, genetic make-up, previous disease, allergies, etc.

Anyway, the number of adverse effects in the trials seems to be low, so that is a good thing.


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9606 on: October 30, 2020, 12:58:31 PM »
From what I've seen from typical coronavirus vaccines, that protection can last up to 5 years.


Has a vaccine for any coronavirus ever been developed? I don't think so but I could be wrong. Certainly not for those that cause colds.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html

Did they develop a vaccine for MERS-CoV or SARS-CoV?
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 01:04:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9607 on: October 30, 2020, 01:47:31 PM »
Quote
Reasons for the lack of commercial and effective vaccines for SARS and MERS are varied. In the case of MERS, it is likely that the vaccine development was delayed because of the scarcity of suitable and cost-effective small animal models during pre-clinical experimentation. In addition, it is probable that a vaccine has not been delivered because of the low interest in investing in a vaccine for a disease that has produced relatively low and geographically centralized cases (compared with other more global and persistent infectious diseases such as influenza, HIV and tuberculosis). This last factor might have also contributed to the lack of a vaccine for SARS, in the sense that it was considered pointless to continue investing in a vaccine for a disease whose cases ceased to be reported in 2004.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7177048/

Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9608 on: October 30, 2020, 01:56:28 PM »
Yes

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7177048 (oops wili got there first)

BTW my understanding has always been that there is a difference between the vaccine response and the immune response.

Usually the actual experience yields a better response but this also depends on the type of vaccine. The modern flu ones just teach the body to recognize some outside part of the viral envelope which is actually a very limited response (which also means that some years are less effective if another strain then the chosen one becomes dominant).

Results with vaccine types which use more of the target virus might give more robust results but i would like a link to some papers to back up the claim.
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9609 on: October 30, 2020, 02:52:09 PM »
If the problem was half the population, then it can't be done.  If a sufficiently large percentage of the population complies (60%-80%), r can be pushed below 1.

Many countries have vaccination rates well above 50% against the flu (R is 1,5-1,8), and still they have a flu season every year. How come?

https://data.oecd.org/healthcare/influenza-vaccination-rates.htm

grixm

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9610 on: October 30, 2020, 02:56:52 PM »
If the problem was half the population, then it can't be done.  If a sufficiently large percentage of the population complies (60%-80%), r can be pushed below 1.

Many countries have vaccination rates well above 50% against the flu (R is 1,5-1,8), and still they have a flu season every year. How come?

https://data.oecd.org/healthcare/influenza-vaccination-rates.htm

This chart shows the vaccination rate for the population 65 years or higher, not the total vaccination rate.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9611 on: October 30, 2020, 03:10:33 PM »
Internal Documents Reveal COVID-19 Hospitalization Data the Government Keeps Hidden
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/30/929239481/internal-documents-reveal-covid-19-hospitalization-data-the-government-keeps-hid

... NPR has obtained documents that give a snapshot of data the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services collects and analyzes daily. The documents — reports sent to agency staffers — highlight trends in hospitalizations and pinpoint cities nearing full hospital capacity and facilities under stress. They paint a granular picture of the strain on hospitals across the country that could help local citizens decide when to take extra precautions against COVID-19.

The documents show that detailed information hospitals report to HHS every day is reviewed and analyzed — but circulation seems to be limited to a few dozen government staffers from HHS and its agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institutes of Health, according to distribution lists reviewed by NPR. Only one member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Admiral Brett Giroir, appears to receive the documents directly.

Withholding this information from the public and the research community is a missed opportunity to help prevent outbreaks and even save lives, say public health and data experts who reviewed the documents for NPR.

The daily reports show county, city and hospital-level details, as well as national analyses that HHS does not post online.



For instance, the most recent report obtained by NPR, dated Oct 27, lists cities where hospitals are filling up, including the metro areas of Atlanta, Minneapolis and Baltimore, where in-patient hospital beds are over 80% full. It also lists specific hospitals reaching max capacity, including facilities in Tampa, Birmingham and New York that are at over 95% ICU capacity and at risk of running out of intensive care beds.

Around 24% of U.S. hospitals are using more than 80% of their ICU capacity, based on reporting from nearly 5,000 "priority facilities," and more hospitals have joined their ranks in recent weeks.



Hospitalization data is invaluable in looking ahead to see where and when outbreaks are getting worse ... the local and hospital-level data HHS is collecting would be very useful to researchers and health leaders. "That stuff isn't easy to find at a national level," he says, "There's no one place [publicly] you can go to get all that data."

But what's missing for this kind of planning, he says, is "exactly the information" that appears in the internal report. ... it's clear vital data is flowing into HHS daily. "But sharing with the public seems to be an afterthought,"

HHS tells NPR that more than 800 state-level employees have access to the daily hospitalization data it gathers, but only for their own state ... without a larger view into national or regional data some states, like Tennessee, which has eight bordering states, are missing out on valuable regional data



... "Our goal is to be as transparent as possible, while still protecting 'privacy'," an HHS spokesperson wrote in an email to NPR. .. This is a peculiar concern because the reports contain no individual patient data to raise a 'privacy' issue.

... Health experts say the data quality was compromised by a controversial shift in data collection from CDC to HHS in July, and that the issues with data quality have not been fully resolved.

Hospitals have had to adjust to onerous new reporting requirements, and the hospital data is no longer checked and analyzed by seasoned epidemiologists and other experts at CDC.

https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=7278119-HHS-Daily-COVID-Hospitalizations-Summary-Report

-------------------------------------'

US Coronavirus Cases Hit Record Daily High and Experts Warn Daily Death Rates Will Triple By Mid-January
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/30/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

For the first time, the United States added cases faster than one every second on Thursday, Johns Hopkins data shows.

... There were 88,521 new cases of the coronavirus reported in the US on October 29, according to data from Johns Hopkins University -- 9,540 more cases than Wednesday.

In total, there have been 8,944,934 cases and at least 228,656 deaths in the US -- 971 of them on Thursday, JHU data shows.

...The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine says it is most likely that by the middle of January, 2,250 Americans will be dying every day from the coronavirus -- three times more than the current rate.

And it could get much worse.

"If states do not react to rising numbers by re-imposing mandates, cumulative deaths could reach 514,000 by the same date," the IHME said in its latest forecast.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

"The fall/winter surge should lead to a daily death toll that is approximately three times higher than now by mid-January. Hospital systems, particularly ICUs, are expected to be under extreme stress in December and January in 18 states."

... "We are at an unsustainable growth rate," said Dr. Jason Mitchell Thursday. Mitchell is the chief medical officer at Presbyterian Healthcare Services, which operates nine regional hospitals in New Mexico.

Mitchell says the state's rate of case growth is averaging about 5% a day, which would result in catastrophic numbers if there's no effort to change the trend. "By December, we would have so many cases that we would be in MASH tents," Mitchell said during a state health briefing.

-----------------------------------

... if your not rich, you're 'little people' ...

Don Jr. Dismisses Coronavirus Deaths: ‘The Number Is Almost Nothing’
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/10/30/trump-jr-coronavirus-deaths-nothing-433665

... Roughly 1,000 Americans died from the disease on Thursday, as Trump Jr. appeared on Fox News host Laura Ingraham’s show to downplay the U.S. death toll. And among those who survive coronavirus, many have long-term damage to vital organs and lingering chronic symptoms.

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, falsely claimed on Thursday that the number of Americans dying from the coronavirus amounts to “almost nothing.”

... Those remarks resemble other misleading or outright untrue rhetoric put forth in recent days by President Donald Trump, who has been increasingly dismissive of the pandemic’s threat ahead of Election Day. “More Testing equals more Cases. We have best testing. Deaths WAY DOWN,” he tweeted on Friday morning.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9612 on: October 30, 2020, 04:18:58 PM »
COVID-19 Deaths: Infection Fatality Ratio Is About 1% Says New Report
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-covid-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio.html

The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.

These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.

The report reveals that:
  • In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
  • In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
  • Risk of death from COVID-19 doubles for approximately every eight years of aging.
  • Age-specific IFRs increased from 0.1% and below for individuals under 40 years to greater than 5% among individuals over 80 years.
This report covers a screening of 175 studies and identified 10 antibody surveys to obtain updated estimates of the IFR using a modeling framework.

This specific framework addresses several limitations of previous estimates which have relied on data early in the epidemic, and have not fully accounted for uncertainty in serological (antibody) test characteristics, and delays from onset of infection to seroconversion (specific antibody becoming detectable in the blood), death, and antibody waning.

The researchers find that age specific IFRs follow a pattern, with the risk of death doubling approximately every eight years of age.

Age-specific IFRs increased from 0.1% and below for individuals under 40 years to greater than 5% among individuals over 80 years

Using these age-specific estimates, the team estimates the overall IFR in a low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, can be expected to be approximately 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).

In contrast, in high income countries, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, the report estimates that the overall IFR can be expected to be approximately 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).


The code for reproducing these results is available on GitHub.

Full Report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-ifr/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

ritter

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9613 on: October 30, 2020, 04:35:04 PM »
Archimid, I don’t see how you intend to control half the US population that will neither wear masks or get a vaccine either. Maybe this is uniquely a US problem but eradication isn’t possible unless a sizable portion of our population changes its skin. No change in leadership will change some lines already drawn. 
 I don’t know anyone planning on getting vaccinated until they are sure it is safe. If everyone needs shots every year then there will be too many places in the world that will serve as reservoirs of Coronavirus, like the flyover part of the US( even though nobody is flying ).
 If the Siberian Times researcher that re-exposed himself is correct and there is no long lasting immunity then we are in for many years of Covid .
 So how to live with current conditions as the new normal ? How to plan months from now or years from now? Will the hard right still refuse masks a year from now ? Because if they don’t change this is the new normal. The economy can’t take the new normal for long. Best prepare for a depression.
That is if the rest of the world expects the US consumer to return to growth ,growth, growth, we have a Covid problem and there is no solution. Sometimes a country needs to act together and right now I am very skeptical.

Good thoughts, as always, Bruce. I fear you're correct. So much so, we're implementing the plan to sell the house in our small town and move to the inlaw's property in the spring, eliminate all debt and establish off-grid energy and food production (fortunately, the FIL has been a farmer his whole life, so we won't be starting from scratch on how to do it). Now if the housing marked can just hold out for another six months. Hopefully, the flight from the Bay Area into the surrounding less dense counties will benefit the plan. Otherwise, I guess we'll just go be poor on the farm!

My grandpa grew up on a farm during the Great Depression. His words of wisdom were "we were dirt poor but always well fed." Good enough.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9614 on: October 30, 2020, 04:36:14 PM »
COVID-19 Deaths: Infection Fatality Ratio Is About 1% Says New Report
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-covid-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio.html

The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.

we worked out the same by april-may on this forum :)

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9615 on: October 30, 2020, 04:55:54 PM »
COVID-19 Deaths: Infection Fatality Ratio Is About 1% Says New Report
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-covid-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio.html

The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.

we worked out the same by april-may on this forum :)
Participating here is like getting the answer right to a question in 2nd grade or whatever, instantly after the teacher asked it, except the teacher did not want a correct answer immediately, and so the ones who answered are banished from speaking, and then there is a stupid discussion to convince all the people who stick their hands up with wrong answers thereafter that they may not be correct, and to show the process of getting a right answer, etc. Meanwhile I am sitting in the corner with a dunce cap, silenced, while my answers are now being repeated by the others in the class, as if they were their own answers all along, which is doubly insulting because I am now banned from freely partaking in the conversation as well.

And not only is this on the topic of mortality rate, it is also on WHY the mortality rate is modulated, and WHY transmission increases or decreases with seasonality. All of these have been obvious and I have been repetitive and emphatic on all aspects since April.... but the class discussion goes on. lol.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 05:01:42 PM by bbr2315 »

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9616 on: October 30, 2020, 05:06:06 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
UK data
Daily new cases might be stabilising at a bit over 20k per day.
Daily deaths average still rising strongly - 7 day average now 230


Not at all sure about "stabilising".

Definitely different rates in UK:
Deaths fairly steady 50% growth per week
Hospitalisations ~35% growth per week
Cases ~20% growth per week



There's new analysis of strains that shows around half of second wave infections in the UK are from a strain recently imported from Spain. So seeding by returning tourists is also a significant part of the picture and another factor that could be making bulges in the cases, hospitalisations and deaths curves give different growth rates.

They seeded into an environment where R was significantly over 1, but it does mean that schools are back in the picture as well as Eat Out for what could be responsible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54745196 item at 12.08

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9617 on: October 30, 2020, 05:15:58 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
UK data
Daily new cases might be stabilising at a bit over 20k per day.
Daily deaths average still rising strongly - 7 day average now 230


Not at all sure about "stabilising".

Definitely different rates in UK:
Deaths fairly steady 50% growth per week
Hospitalisations ~35% growth per week
Cases ~20% growth per week



There's new analysis of strains that shows around half of second wave infections in the UK are from a strain recently imported from Spain. So seeding by returning tourists is also a significant part of the picture and another factor that could be making bulges in the cases, hospitalisations and deaths curves give different growth rates.

They seeded into an environment where R was significantly over 1, but it does mean that schools are back in the picture as well as Eat Out for what could be responsible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54745196 item at 12.08

The "new strains" are a strawman, seasonality is the actuality.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9618 on: October 30, 2020, 05:18:06 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9619 on: October 30, 2020, 07:12:26 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
UK data
Daily new cases might be stabilising at a bit over 20k per day.
Daily deaths average still rising strongly - 7 day average now 230
Not at all sure about "stabilising".

Definitely different rates in UK:
Deaths fairly steady 50% growth per week
Hospitalisations ~35% growth per week
Cases ~20% growth per week

There's new analysis of strains that shows around half of second wave infections in the UK are from a strain recently imported from Spain. So seeding by returning tourists is also a significant part of the picture and another factor that could be making bulges in the cases, hospitalisations and deaths curves give different growth rates.

They seeded into an environment where R was significantly over 1, but it does mean that schools are back in the picture as well as Eat Out for what could be responsible.
Oh well - I was foolish enough to contract a small infection of optimism - soon cured.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775
Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal.
Quote
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated. A "reasonable worst-case scenario" is used by officials and the NHS to plan for the months ahead.

It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter. But an official Sage document, dated 14 October and published today, reveals we are in a worse position than expected.

Scientists crunching the numbers estimated that, by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England. Their report said: "This is significantly above the profile of the reasonable worst-case scenario, where the number of daily infections in England remained between 12,000-13,000 throughout October."

It added that the number of people with Covid needing hospital care is already higher than the winter plan and deaths will "almost certainly" exceed the plan in the next two weeks.

However, this is not the same as saying more than 85,000 people will die this winter. Government action can still change the course of the pandemic. The report stated that if cases fall in the "very near future" then the higher than anticipated deaths "might only continue for three to four weeks". But if cases are not brought under control then the "epidemic will further diverge from the planning scenario", it added.

Even if cases are brought under control today, deaths would be expected to rise for another month due to the time between when some somebody is infected, when they need hospital care and when they die.
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9620 on: October 30, 2020, 07:56:42 PM »
Archimid, I don’t see how you intend to control half the US population that will neither wear masks or get a vaccine either. Maybe this is uniquely a US problem but eradication isn’t possible unless a sizable portion of our population changes its skin. No change in leadership will change some lines already drawn. 
 I don’t know anyone planning on getting vaccinated until they are sure it is safe. If everyone needs shots every year then there will be too many places in the world that will serve as reservoirs of Coronavirus, like the flyover part of the US( even though nobody is flying ).
 If the Siberian Times researcher that re-exposed himself is correct and there is no long lasting immunity then we are in for many years of Covid .
 So how to live with current conditions as the new normal ? How to plan months from now or years from now? Will the hard right still refuse masks a year from now ? Because if they don’t change this is the new normal. The economy can’t take the new normal for long. Best prepare for a depression.
That is if the rest of the world expects the US consumer to return to growth ,growth, growth, we have a Covid problem and there is no solution. Sometimes a country needs to act together and right now I am very skeptical.

Hope you’re doing better, Bruce.
I don’t think we would need so much percentage of population to be vaccinated. And at the accelerated rhythm of contagions, only a relatively small percentage of vaccinations might need it to stop the infection completely next spring in the NH at least.

If vaccinations need time to be distributed and administered, there is no question those in highest risk of complications should be first. But then I suspect the most scientific way to stop the spreading is to vaccinate the most socially active population, particularly young teenagers and single adults under 30 (well, of these, the fewer and fewer that did not already catch it)

But general population would complain and I am sure politicians will make sure it is done in the most inefficient way posible.

I think a reason why Madrid contagions are decaying while this european boom is because its 15-25 yo population partied like there’s no tomorrow during summer, so we have a deficit of superspreaders now.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9621 on: October 30, 2020, 08:23:47 PM »
About 20% of Boston Grocery Store Workers Had Covid-19, and Most Didn't Have Symptoms, Study Found
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/29/health/grocery-workers-increased-covid-19-risk-wellness/index.html

High rate of symptomless COVID-19 infection among grocery store workers: study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-high-symptomless-covid-infection-grocery.amp

Grocery store work puts employees at serious risk for infection, a new study found, particularly those who have to interact with customers.

These workers likely became a "significant transmission source" for Covid-19 without even knowing it because most in the study were asymptomatic.

The analysis, published Thursday in the journal Occupational and Environmental Medicine, is the first to demonstrate the significant asymptomatic infection rate, exposure risks and psychological distress grocery workers have felt during the pandemic.

This cross-sectional study was conducted in May 2020 in a single grocery retail store in Massachusetts, USA.

In the study, 20% of the 104 grocery workers tested at a store in Boston in May had positive nasal swab tests.

This was a significantly higher rate of infection than what was seen in the surrounding communities, the researchers said. Workers who dealt with customers were five times as likely to test positive for Covid-19 as colleagues in other positions.

But three out of four of those who tested positive were asymptomatic.

... "This is definitely very alarming as it means that retail grocery store employees are exposed to customers and sort of serve as a middleman for the virus - like a super spreader almost."

... Workers in the study had tried to take precautions. Nearly all, 91%, said they wore a face mask at work and 77% said they also wore masks outside of work. Yet only about 66% said they were able to practice social distancing consistently on the job. ... Nearly a quarter of the people in customer service jobs said they had problems with anxiety and depression compared to 8% of workers who did not have to interact with customers.

... Non-union grocery workers often have little to no healthcare coverage, meaning they could potentially face expensive health care bills if they contracted Covid-19.

Association between SARS-CoV-2 infection, exposure risk and mental health among a cohort of essential retail workers in the USA
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125120v1
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9622 on: October 31, 2020, 12:06:53 AM »
Regeneron Halts Trial of COVID-19 Antibody Drug Cocktail In Sickest Hospitalized Patients
https://www.biospace.com/article/regeneron-halts-enrollment-in-covid-19-trial-following-safety-signal-in-critically-ill-patients/

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said Friday it has paused a clinical study of its antibody drug to treat some of the sickest COVID-19 patients because of a potential safety concern.

The recommendation from an independent monitoring board marks the second time a clinical trial of an experimental coronavirus antibody drug has been paused because of safety issues.

Regeneron said it is pausing enrollment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients receiving mechanical ventilation or intense oxygen after the independent monitoring committee observed "a potential safety signal and an unfavorable risk/benefit profile at this time."

... The data monitoring board recommended continuing trial enrollment of hospitalized patients who require little or no oxygen.

Earlier this month, a different monitoring board recommended pausing enrollment in a study testing an Eli Lilly antibody drug to investigate a possible safety issue in hospitalized patients.

... No antibody drugs have been authorized for use yet, but they made headlines recently after President Trump said he received Regeneron's antibody cocktail and touted it as a "miracle" and a "cure."

NIAID Director Anthony Fauci this week said treatment is all about timing; dexamethasone and other steroids can help with severely ill patients on ventilation, as can the antiviral drug remdesivir. Studies with experimental antibody treatments, on the other hand, suggest they are most effective when given on an outpatient basis to someone with mild symptoms.

--------------------------------------



---------------------------------------

“Not Just a Virus That Kills People”—WHO Spotlights Long-term COVID-19
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/10/not-just-a-virus-that-kills-people-who-spotlights-long-term-covid-19/

... While there have long been reports of COVID-19 long-haulers, the WHO worked to raise awareness of the problem today. It’s still unclear what proportion of infected people go on to have mid- to long-term health problems, Tedros noted. But, it's clear that "this is not just a virus that kills people." And with more than 45 million cases globally—and counting—even a small percentage will mean a large number of people will have long-term disability.

It's also clear that long-term symptoms and complications strike a wide range of COVID-19 patients. Long-term effects have shown up in people with mild disease as well as severe disease. Young adults, the elderly, women, men, even children have reported struggling with the disease for extended periods of time.

In today's press conference, Tedros invited three guests to share their experiences with long-term COVID-19. ...

... “It’s been almost eight months now and I’m still suffering from fatigue, brain fog, chest pain, heart palpitations, digestive issues, short term memory loss,” ... “There’s no system in my body which has not been affected. If you’d asked me eight months ago if I thought this would happen if I caught COVID, I’d say no, no, not at all.”

... This threat “really reinforces what a dangerous virus COVID-19 is,” Tedros added. “It also reinforces to me just how morally unconscionable and unfeasible the so called ‘natural herd immunity’ strategy is. Not only would it lead to millions more unnecessary deaths, it would also lead to a significant number of people facing a long road to full recovery.”

----------------------------------------------



Google Trends search for "loss of taste"

https://twitter.com/dansinker/status/1321227774246486022

---------------------------------------



https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1322013016351793152

Google searches for "loss of taste" and "loss of smell" versus population-adjusted new coronavirus cases.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 03:08:53 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9623 on: October 31, 2020, 02:13:55 AM »
There is a tsunami now rolling into Europe. And the only lands likely to remain dry are pockets of Italy and Spain.

Weekly death count / previous week / increase --

Czechia: 1,009 / 701 / +44%
Belgium: 720 / 261 / +175%
Germany: 395 / 220 / +80%
France: 1,810 / 1,085 / +67%
Netherlands: 328 / 183 / +79% (as of 10/27)
UK: 1,658 / 1,142 / +45%

Meanwhile....

NYC: 33 / 38 / -14%

I wonder what the difference is.... the data is not final for the most recent week in NYC. While cases have jumped slightly here, there is no exponential increase, and deaths and hospitalizations are still flat and are NOT rising. This is excellent news.

While lockdowns are now being implemented across the EU, these will not stop the cascade now underway (IMO). The exponential growth is too much and the starting baseline was too high.

Rolling the #s forward to next week, we see --

Czechia: 1453 deaths
Belgium: 1980 deaths
Germany: 711 deaths
France: 3023 deaths
Netherlands: 588 deaths
UK: 2404 deaths

Let's revisit this post in one week and see what happens with the numbers, but if anyone reading this is in the EU, I highly advise doing everything possibly to not end up in a hospital in the near future, and my thoughts are with you.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:25:15 AM by bbr2315 »

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9624 on: October 31, 2020, 08:28:35 AM »
New cases per million inhabitants in the last 7 days compared with the previous 7 days, and growth in new cases in the last 7 days (source: Worldometers)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9625 on: October 31, 2020, 08:56:22 AM »
Many countries have vaccination rates well above 50% against the flu (R is 1,5-1,8), and still they have a flu season every year. How come?

Because there are many variations of the Flu and the vaccines must be specific to be effective. Every year scientists make the best guess they can about which will be the dominant strain in the flu season, they make the vaccine based on that. This gives all other flu strains the ability to move unhindered.

This is not the case with "Coronavirus". There are the common cold types of coronavirus. These viruses are so mild that taking a vaccine against them is probably more dangerous than the viruses. Then there is SARS, which fizzled out, and MERS which is very rare. Then there is SARS-CoV-2 which is lethal and contagious. If enough people are vaccinated against it simultaneously, and testing, tracing, and isolating follow trough, it can be made extinct.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9626 on: October 31, 2020, 10:43:27 AM »
I was wrong. Natural immunity seems much better than vaccine immunity, and it makes sense.

In an infectious disease process, the immune system and the body work furiously to battle the infection. This provides more complete protection. It may also be harmful or fatal.

In the vaccination process only a part of the immune system is triggered, enough to provide immunity within parameters with minimum side effects.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9627 on: October 31, 2020, 11:57:01 AM »
I think you're wrong to say you're wrong! :)

At least, it's not an absolute. While most vaccines are not as effective as natural immunity, some are (and of course the vaccine comes at much lower risk to your health and life).

Note:

Quote
...a few vaccines induce a better immune response than natural infection:

 •  Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine — The high purity of the specific protein in the vaccine leads to a better immune response than natural infection.

 •   Tetanus vaccine — The toxin made by tetanus is so potent that the amount that causes disease is actually lower than the amount that induces a long-lasting immune response. This is why people with tetanus disease are still recommended to get the vaccine.

•    Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine — Children less than 2 years old do not typically make a good response to the complex sugar coating (polysaccharide) on the surface of Hib that causes disease; however, the vaccine links this polysaccharide to a helper protein that creates a better immune response than would occur naturally. Therefore, children less than 2 years old who get Hib are still recommended to get the vaccine.

•    Pneumococcal vaccine — This vaccine works the same way as the Hib vaccine to create a better immune response than natural infection.

https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/immune-system-and-health
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9628 on: October 31, 2020, 02:15:35 PM »
COVID is spreading rapidly in the U.S. Too bad we are not all doing what NYC is doing to control the spread. Their website is very informative.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/index.page

COVID-19 continues to spread in New York City (NYC) with concerning increases in community transmission in certain neighborhoods. NYC is taking action by implementing restrictions in three zones identified by the State — red, orange, yellow. Find out if you are in a Covid-19 Hotspot Zone.

Red Zone

Schools:All New York City public schools and nonpublic schools must close and return to full remote learning.

Businesses: All nonessential businesses are required to close. Only essential businesses as designated by New York State Empire State Development Corporation can remain open.

Food Service Establishments: Restaurants, bars, cafes and other food service establishments can provide takeout and delivery service only. No indoor or outdoor dining is allowed.

Houses of Worship: Houses of worship may remain open at 25% capacity, up to a maximum of 10 people, whichever is fewer.

Gatherings: Non-essential gatherings of any size are prohibited and must be postponed or cancelled. Any individual who encourages, promotes or organizes mass gatherings may be fined up to $15,000/day.


Orange Zones and Yellow Zones have rules as well and testing is rigorous to identify neighborhoods where community transmission is occurring. I would argue that NYC is engaged in "Best Practices" with regard to controlling transmission, at least best practices for a western democracy where welding doors shut on apartment complexes would cause a bit of a problem.  8)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:29:00 PM by Shared Humanity »

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9629 on: October 31, 2020, 02:20:37 PM »
COVID is spreading rapidly in the U.S. Too bad we are not all doing what NYC is doing to control the spread.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/index.page

COVID-19 continues to spread in New York City (NYC) with concerning increases in community transmission in certain neighborhoods. NYC is taking action by implementing restrictions in three zones identified by the State — red, orange, yellow. Find out if you are in a Covid-19 Hotspot Zone.

Red Zone

Schools:All New York City public schools and nonpublic schools must close and return to full remote learning.

Businesses: All nonessential businesses are required to close. Only essential businesses as designated by New York State Empire State Development Corporation can remain open.

Food Service Establishments: Restaurants, bars, cafes and other food service establishments can provide takeout and delivery service only. No indoor or outdoor dining is allowed.

Houses of Worship: Houses of worship may remain open at 25% capacity, up to a maximum of 10 people, whichever is fewer.

Gatherings: Non-essential gatherings of any size are prohibited and must be postponed or cancelled. Any individual who encourages, promotes or organizes mass gatherings may be fined up to $15,000/day.


Orange Zones and Yellow Zones have rules as well and testing is rigorous to identify neighborhoods where community transmission is occurring.
NYC controlled the spread through abject incompetence resulting in its primary wave happening before anywhere else in the world except Lombardy, aided by density and calls for "normality".

That is the ONLY REASON that NYC has no exponential increase. I have been repeating this over and over again, the differential is now obvious, yet you credit the very politicians whose incompetence resulted in 35K excess deaths here.... it is actually quite offensive.

Oh well, as I credit NYC pols for the 35K excess springtime deaths here, I also credit people like you for the impending millions of deaths in Europe.

Also NYC is doing barely anything to control spread / I had lunch indoors without a mask yesterday and everything is almost back to normal, it is pretty wonderful and I am extremely grateful for this.

Imagine looking at the place with one of the highest death rates in the world and saying "good job...you did it!" as if the method of control was not herd immunity but containment....
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:26:09 PM by bbr2315 »

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9630 on: October 31, 2020, 03:23:22 PM »
COVID is spreading rapidly in the U.S. Too bad we are not all doing what NYC is doing to control the spread. Their website is very informative.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/index.page
What about masks in NYC? Are they mandatory? How is compliance?

Methinks the tsunami in EU is mostly because
1) they lost it on the mask thing. (E.g. hotspot city Cologne is only now requiring hospital visitors to wear a serious N95 mask.)
2) stupid tourists and party folks in summer. (I know a few who just dont get it and are as dangerously stupid as Trumpists.)
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9631 on: October 31, 2020, 03:45:16 PM »
I would also like to add that when I was stuck in my apartment for 50 days and posted here saying I was leaving for walks etc, Shared Humanity said I was basically an idiot, putting people at risk of death, should stay indoors, was volunteering myself for the COVID trials.

Can you imagine me telling other people on this board that they should never leave the house again, and it being tolerated? Actually goading someone into depression and mental health issues, and not being held accountable for it AT ALL?

I will say it was extremely traumatizing living through this experience in NYC. And after it was clearly finished, I still had people like SH telling me I was an idiot, and should stay indoors forever, which is basically saying I should kill myself because what is the point of living if that is all you can do? That is JAIL.

Yet this is forgotten and he is allowed to post freely and I am not. Not only has he personally attacked me through this entire thread, all of his attacks have been WRONG, and he has never been held accountable for anything, and he is still allowed to post misinformation.

PS: NYC had 35K excess deaths, London had 32K deaths with a population of 8 million due to Blitzkrieg in 1940-41. This was a Biological Blitzkrieg and had a death toll almost exactly comparable on a per capita basis. And as a survivor of this Blitzkrieg I think the actions of SH on this Forum and his attitude towards myself and my return to normal life are morally reprehensible.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 06:01:54 PM by bbr2315 »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9632 on: October 31, 2020, 06:13:42 PM »
New USA cases 30 October breaks the 100,000 barrier.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9633 on: October 31, 2020, 06:15:57 PM »
locally went from 1.9% two weeks ago to 6.1% yesterday ...

---------------------------------

U.S. Reports Record 99,321 New Coronavirus Cases as Scientists Warn Latest Surge Just Beginning
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/31/us-reports-record-99321-new-covid-cases-as-scientists-warn-of-difficult-winter-.html

The U.S. reported 99,321 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, beating its previous record set only a day prior as the pandemic worsens in nearly every corner of the nation.

The U.S. is continuing its upward climb on what's now the pandemic's third peak, with cases growing by 5% or more in 43 states as of Friday, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. There are now more than 9 million reported Covid-19 cases in the United States, which added an additional 1 million cases in only two weeks, according to Hopkins.

Over the last week, the U.S. reported an average of roughly 78,738 new cases every day, the highest seven-day average recorded yet and up nearly 25% compared with a week ago. The top five records in daily reported cases have all been reached within the last eight days, according to Hopkins data.

... hospitalizations are also rising and deaths are gradually following, metrics that usually lag behind climbing cases.

As of Friday, 18 states reached record-high hospitalizations based on a seven-day average, particularly in the West and Midwest — Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming all hit records, according to the Covid Tracking Project.

----------------------------------------

Models Show How COVID-19 Cuts a Neighborhood Path
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/uow-msh102920.php

A research team led by UC Irvine and the University of Washington has created a new model of coronavirus diffusion through a community. This approach, published Sept. 10 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, factors in network exposure -- whom one interacts with -- and demographics to simulate at a more detailed level both where and how quickly the coronavirus could spread through Seattle and 18 other major cities.

The team used U.S. Census Bureau tract demographics, simulation techniques and COVID-19 case data from spring 2020 to estimate a range of days for the virus to spread within a given city.

The result: Some neighborhoods peak sooner than others. And in every city, the virus sticks around far longer than some might expect.

"The most basic takeaway from this research is risk. People are at risk longer than they think, the virus will last longer than expected, and the point at which you think you don't need to be vigilant means that it just hasn't happened to you yet," said co-author Zack Almquist, an assistant professor of sociology at the UW.

... The model of projected hospital cases shows how the geographic variations in the timing in peak COVID-19 infections could affect hospitals in different areas. Without outside intervention, some hospitals would remain at capacity for years, especially those farthest from major population centers.

... "If you project these models for what it means over the country, we might expect to see some areas, such as rural populations, not see infection for months or even years before their peak infection occurs," Almquist said. "These projections, as well as others, are beginning to suggest that it could take years for the spread of COVID-19 to reach saturation in the population, and even if it does so it is likely to become endemic without a vaccine."

Spatial heterogeneity can lead to substantial local variations in COVID-19 timing and severity PNAS (2020)
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/39/24180

-----------------------------------------

Two Million Lost Health Coverage, Thousands Died Prematurely In Trump's First 3 Years
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/pfan-tml102820.php
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20201027.770793/full/

A new analysis of federal surveys on health insurance coverage concludes that the number of uninsured Americans increased by about 2.3 million between 2016 and 2019. The analysis by researchers at Harvard Medical School and the City University of New York's Hunter College, published today in Health Affairs blog, concludes that the contraction of coverage under President Trump caused at least 3,399, and perhaps as many as 25,180, excess deaths even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

... "Our analysis warns that much worse is ahead if the Supreme Court overturns the ACA, as Trump's Justice Department is advocating," stated lead author Dr. Adam Gaffney, a pulmonary and critical care physician at Harvard Medical School and the Cambridge Health Alliance. "Gutting the ACA  would throw another 19.9 million Americans off of insurance, and cause up to 68,345 extra deaths each year. We need to expand insurance, not shrink it. With 30 million uninsured today, we could save thousands of lives by achieving universal coverage," he added.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20201027.770793/full/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9634 on: October 31, 2020, 06:56:51 PM »
I would also like to add that when I was stuck in my apartment for 50 days and posted here saying I was leaving for walks etc, Shared Humanity said I was basically an idiot, putting people at risk of death, should stay indoors, was volunteering myself for the COVID trials.

Can you imagine me telling other people on this board that they should never leave the house again, and it being tolerated? Actually goading someone into depression and mental health issues, and not being held accountable for it AT ALL?

I will say it was extremely traumatizing living through this experience in NYC. And after it was clearly finished, I still had people like SH telling me I was an idiot, and should stay indoors forever, which is basically saying I should kill myself because what is the point of living if that is all you can do? That is JAIL.

Yet this is forgotten and he is allowed to post freely and I am not. Not only has he personally attacked me through this entire thread, all of his attacks have been WRONG, and he has never been held accountable for anything, and he is still allowed to post misinformation.

PS: NYC had 35K excess deaths, London had 32K deaths with a population of 8 million due to Blitzkrieg in 1940-41. This was a Biological Blitzkrieg and had a death toll almost exactly comparable on a per capita basis. And as a survivor of this Blitzkrieg I think the actions of SH on this Forum and his attitude towards myself and my return to normal life are morally reprehensible.

I do not understand your need to make it personal.

NYC screwed up big time early. It did not help they were ground zero in the U.S. I was complimenting the city for getting it right now. I don't doubt this has a great deal to do with how painful the lesson was. It did not help that the current administration decided to do nothing since it was blue cities that were getting hit.

The rest of the country could learn from you guys.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 07:03:18 PM by Shared Humanity »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9635 on: October 31, 2020, 07:35:00 PM »
The Pandemic Is in Uncharted Territory
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/10/pandemic-uncharted-territory/169706/

The fall surge is rewriting the coronavirus record books across America. And the numbers are still climbing.



“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9636 on: October 31, 2020, 09:37:19 PM »
PM announced tonight England locks down for a month on Thursday (subject to a vote in Parliament on Wednesday)

Just as in March, the government has waited until the hospitals were about to be overwhelmed. Regional policy seems to have failed because hospital places are a lot lower in the less infected places. The SW is near the bottom of the infection league (though bits of its University cities, including my patch, are at the top of the league) but its on course to be the first region to run out of hospital capacity.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9637 on: October 31, 2020, 09:51:45 PM »
The most important question right now is how long immunity lasts. Everything depends on that. As Europe and the US are trying to engineer a sort of herd immunity by letting COVID go thru at least a part of the population, that is only going to work if immunity lasts at least 6-12 months. We really need research about this!

I have been modelling (quite successfully if you can call this sad state of things success) COVID since April and it seems to me that Europe and US will peak out in Nov-Dec, and if immunity lasts 9+ months then only a minor third wave will happen during spring. Most of the panic will be over by the end of January...

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9638 on: October 31, 2020, 11:00:15 PM »
Congrats New York ? .. cases back @ 2k / day .. last there in May .. there seems only one way these figures will go ( esp. based on bbr's anecdotal reports ) .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9639 on: November 01, 2020, 12:07:39 AM »
Congrats New York ? .. cases back @ 2k / day .. last there in May .. there seems only one way these figures will go ( esp. based on bbr's anecdotal reports ) .
Did you know, NYC is not NY state? Can you please stop implying NY State = NYC? The primary wave is done in NYC, NOT necessarily NY State as a whole.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-recent.page

We had 3,566 new weekly cases four weeks ago. We are at 3,604 new weekly cases this week. Deaths have dropped in the same interval, from 36 per week to 31.

There is no exponential increase ongoing in NYC. The primary wave is over. Minor secondary waves will continue oscillating but are unlikely to gain momentum outside of a neighborhood scale, and unlikely to cascade through vulnerable populations because that already happened in March, which is why we have 35K excess deaths this year in this city.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9640 on: November 01, 2020, 01:09:08 AM »
I am not sure why some people keep talking about herd immunity when it isn't an answer to Covid.

SO far, every country that has lost control of Covid has many, many deaths.
There is no evidence that can pinpoint the length of immunity.
There is some evidence that Covid can be caught more than once within months and the second time tends to be worse.... but since the numbers are low at this point, it is hardly enough information to make decisions on.

How does herd immunity make Covid better?
It kills many people, injures many others, and the results on the other end are uncertain... and the WHO and many other experts have been clear that aiming for herd immunity is not the way to handle this situation.... oddly, politicians and business people think herd immunity is great. That alone is enough to scream out loud that herd immunity is wrong.

As for NYC.... they are taking actions that look good, but their case numbers are still rising. Hopefully what they are doing is enough.
Should the actions taken fail though, I wonder if those who tout herd immunity will revisit their thinking about it working while using NYC as their example?

Covid looks to be a winter bug.
But that could have more to do with people being in closed spaces than actual temperatures.

There are studies being done that link dryness of air to easier spread.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/weather-covid-19-coronavirus-and-humidity-study/12587402
This study was done in Sydney, but given Melbourne is both cool and dry during winter, it may help explain on more aspect to the outbreak we had.

There really isn't anywhere in the world that is safe from Covid all year round. And even if herd immunity is pursued, which it is by the looks of it, the results will just be more dead people and Covid will not go away and it will keep on doing what it does.

To me, we need to accept that Covid is here to stay and it could be decades before anything significant changes.... even with a vaccine.
It will come down to treating it better to reduce deaths and injury, which will give the appearance that Covid is weakening when in fact the reduced death rates are from better management and research.

This entire situation is a total mess, politicians are using it to their advantage, and far too many people are following the lead of those who gain advantage from a widespread disease.


Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9641 on: November 01, 2020, 10:39:58 AM »
Boris Johnson announced a second English lockdown last night. This morning I woke in a howling rage, and a nice nurse here at Derriford Hospital in Plymouth made me a nice hot cup of tea.

Then I put my thoughts down on virtual paper:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1322797653768491009

Quote
My blood pressure is currently 134/82.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9642 on: November 01, 2020, 01:44:55 PM »
Boris Johnson announced a second English lockdown last night. This morning I woke in a howling rage, and a nice nurse here at Derriford Hospital in Plymouth made me a nice hot cup of tea.

Then I put my thoughts down on virtual paper:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1322797653768491009

Quote
My blood pressure is currently 134/82.

So you are there for a coronal.
Maybe it is better for your heart to avoid the news.

Hope everything will be allright.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9643 on: November 01, 2020, 04:15:46 PM »
Trump’s Favorite COVID Adviser Goes on Kremlin-Backed RT to Blast Lockdowns as ‘Epic Failure’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-covid-19-adviser-scott-atlas-goes-on-kremlin-funded-rt-to-blast-lockdowns

Trump’s favorite COVID-19 adviser appeared on Russia’s state-controlled RT network late Saturday to declare the coronavirus pandemic mostly under control and insist that it’s actually lockdowns that are “killing people.”

Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist with no epidemiological background, was introduced on RT’s Going Underground as “one of the only two men the U.S. president apparently listens to on the pandemic.”

He conceded that COVID-19 has been “deadly” and stressed that “there’s no understating that.” But he went on to state that many lives had also been “lost from the policy of shutdowns,” which he described as an “epic failure of public policy by people who refuse to accept they were wrong.”

“The public health leadership… They’re killing people with their fear-inducing shutdown policies,” he said, without specifying who he was referring to. Contrary to his claims, studies have actually shown that tens of thousands of lives could have been saved with earlier lockdowns.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-columbia-study-blames-the-white-house-for-at-least-130000-avoidable-covid-deaths

Atlas’ appearance on the network came as another member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force expressed “real problems” with him in an interview with The Washington Post.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, an infectious diseases expert who has faced the ire of Trump and his allies for daring to contradict the president’s rosy claims, said Atlas was a “smart guy who’s talking about things that I believe he doesn’t have any real insight or knowledge or experience in. He keeps talking about things that when you dissect it out and parse it out, it doesn’t make any sense.”

-----------------------------------

... guess all the good US propaganda channels on Fox News and Sinclair were booked ...

------------------------------------

meanwhile ...

Utah’s Hospitals Prepare to Ration Care as a Record Number of Coronavirus Patients Flood Their ICUs
https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

--------------------------------------------

Russia Reports Record 18,665 New Cases

Russia’s daily tally of coronavirus cases hit a record high of 18,665 on Sunday, including 5,261 in Moscow, taking the national tally to 1,636,781, Reuters reports. Authorities also reported 245 deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the official death toll to 28,235.

--------------------------------------------

Ransomware Surge Imperils Hospitals as Pandemic Intensifies
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-11-ransomware-surge-imperils-hospitals-pandemic.html

... Hackers are aware that "health care is the most likely to pay the ransom because their services are critical," dos Santos said.

"Stopping services means that people will literally be dying."

For hospitals unable or willing to pay, "it would mean going back to pen and paper, which can cause huge slowdowns," he added.

--------------------------------------------

How Are Americans Catching the Virus? Increasingly, ‘They Have No Idea’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/coronavirus-transmission-everywhere.html

New outbreaks used to be traced back to crowded factories and rowdy bars. But now, the virus is so widespread not even health officials are able to keep up

As the coronavirus soars across the country, charting a single-day record of 99,155 new cases on Friday and surpassing nine million cases nationwide, tracing the path of the pandemic in the United States is no longer simply challenging. It has become nearly impossible.

“It’s just kind of everywhere,” said Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who estimated that tracing coronavirus cases becomes difficult once the virus spreads to more than 10 cases per 100,000 people.

In some of the hardest-hit spots in the United States, the virus is spreading at 10 to 20 times that rate, and even health officials have all but given up trying to figure out who is giving the virus to whom.

In some places, overwhelmed health officials have abandoned any pretense of keeping up.

In North Dakota, state officials announced they could no longer have one-on-one conversations with everyone who may have been exposed. Aside from situations involving schools and health care facilities, people who test positive were advised to notify their own contacts, leaving residents largely on their own to follow the trail of the outbreak.

--------------------------------------------

Nearly Half of Slovakia’s Entire Population Tested for Covid-19 in One Day
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/nov/01/coronavirus-live-updates-australia-uk-boris-johnson-lockdown-us-record-daily-cases

Nearly half of Slovakia’s entire population were tested for coronavirus on Saturday, as the country began a two day testing programme which it hopes will bring the virus under control without further lockdown measures.

Of the 2.58 million Slovaks who took the test, 25,850, or 1%, tested positive and must go into quarantine.

... While the testing was free and technically voluntary, Slovakia’s government will impose a lockdown on those who do not participate, which includes a ban on going to work.

“Freedom must go together with responsibility toward those who ... are the weakest among us, oncology patients, old people, people with other diseases,” prime minister Igor Matovic told a news conference.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Yuha

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9644 on: November 01, 2020, 04:19:55 PM »
Slovakia is testing the whole population using antigen tests.

Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2
Lancet, October 31, 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext

Quote
For the mass testing, thousands of testing sites are to be set up across the country and everyone over the age of 10 years—approximately 4 million people—will be asked to attend a testing site and take an antigen test. After being tested, people must wait in a separate disinfected room and, around half an hour later, will be given their results.

Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650.

They will test everyone twice, once this weekend, half on Saturday and half on Sunday, and second time next weekend. This seems to be recommended for antigen test because they may miss infections at an early phase.

The first results are in.

Half of Slovakia's population tested for coronavirus in one day
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day

Quote
The defence minister, Jaroslav Naď said on Sunday 2.58 million Slovaks had taken a test on Saturday, and 25,850 or 1% tested positive and must go into quarantine.

The EU country has a population 5.5 million people and aims to test as many people as possible, except for children under 10.

[...]

On Sunday, Slovakia reported 2,282 new cases through PCR tests, putting the total at 59,946, not including those identified in the nationwide scheme, and 219 deaths to date.





Yuha

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9645 on: November 01, 2020, 04:27:08 PM »
Here's more information on the antigen tests:

Fast coronavirus tests: what they can and can’t do
Nature, NEWS FEATURE  16 SEPTEMBER 2020
https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02661-2

Quote
A typical antigen test starts with a health-care professional swabbing the back of a person’s nose or throat — although companies are developing kits that use saliva samples, which are easier and safer to collect than a swab. The sample is then mixed with a solution that breaks the virus open and frees specific viral proteins. The mix is added to a paper strip that contains an antibody tailored to bind to these proteins, if they’re present in the solution. A positive test result can be detected either as a fluorescent glow or as a dark band on the paper strip.

Antigen tests give results in less than 30 minutes, don’t have to be processed in a lab and are cheap to produce. Yet that speed comes with a cost in sensitivity. Whereas a typical PCR test can detect a single molecule of RNA in a microlitre of solution, antigen tests need a sample to contain thousands — probably tens of thousands — of virus particles per microlitre to produce a positive result1. So, if a person has low amounts of virus in their body, the test might give a false-negative result.

When used on people who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 in a standard PCR test, Abbott’s antigen assay correctly spotted the virus in 95–100% of cases if the samples were collected within a week of the onset of symptoms. But that proportion dropped to 75% if samples were taken more than a week after people first showed symptoms. The sensitivity — or the rate of detecting infections correctly — of the other antigen tests used in the United States is between 84% and 98% if a person is tested in the week after showing symptoms.

[...]

There are challenges at the start of the infection, when people have low levels of the virus. The answer, says Mina, is frequent testing — done multiple times per week. This could quickly identify infected people, even if the assays are less sensitive than a PCR-based test, because the amount of virus in their noses and throats rises within hours, he says.

Mina and his colleagues have used statistical models to assess this strategy. In a preprint updated on 8 September, they suggest that testing people twice a week with a relatively insensitive test could be more effective at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 than are more-accurate tests done once every two weeks1. Another study that modelled different scenarios for safely reopening university campuses reported similar findings.



Edit: Added link that I accidentally left out. Thanks longwalks1 for pointing out.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 09:13:09 PM by Yuha »

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9646 on: November 01, 2020, 05:07:51 PM »
Source?      DOI ?      For blocked articles sci-hub works well.     

edited
Duckduckgo had problems finding it, I wrote and then tried Google .  That worked

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02661-2

doi
https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02661-2

As posted Sept 16. 

 Working 50- 55 hour weeks does not leave much  time for me to search much.   If anyone else stumbles upon a newer decent article on PCR vs. antigen, I would appreciate.    Still a shit load of assholes going around without masks here in N. Iowa.  2 days ago 53 positives in very rural Winnegago/Hancock counties   - 21,000 people.  That would be, uhm, about 250 per 100k in one day.   Might be some here's first awareness of exponential growth.   
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 05:25:42 PM by longwalks1 »

Florifulgurator

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9647 on: November 01, 2020, 06:31:46 PM »

Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9648 on: November 01, 2020, 09:52:56 PM »
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT): "Researchers have found that asymptomatic Covid-19 patients may have distinctive coughs. Indecipherable to the human ear, the differences can be picked up by artificial intelligence. Cellphone-recorded coughs could provide a convenient screening tool.”

MIT:  https://t.co/OyHqC2KqNk
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9649 on: November 01, 2020, 10:43:29 PM »
Useful Idiot: Dr. Scott Atlas, White House Coronavirus Task Force Adviser, Apologizes for Interview With Russian Propaganda Network
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/01/media/scott-atlas-russian-media/index.html

... Atlas claimed he was unaware RT was a registered foreign agent.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SWAtlasHoover/status/1322962638012358657

Quote
Scott W. Atlas @SWAtlasHoover

I recently did an interview with RT and was unaware they are a registered foreign agent. I regret doing the interview and apologize for allowing myself to be taken advantage of. I especially apologize to the national security community who is working hard to defend us


... RT is owned by Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti and subsidiary RT America is registered with the US Justice Department as an agent of the Russian government. The Kremlin uses RT to spread English-language propaganda to American audiences, and was part of Russia's election meddling in 2016, according to a 2017 report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/politics/russia-intel-bulletin-mail-in-voting-warning/index.html

Twitter labeled a video from the Russian-state controlled broadcaster RT as election misinformation on Thursday. YouTube videos posted by RT carry the disclaimer: "RT is funded in whole or in part by the Russian government."

Earlier this year, an internal intelligence bulletin issued by the Department of Homeland Security said Russia was amplifying disinformation about mail-in voting as part of a broader effort "to undermine public trust in the electoral process."

A senior White House official told CNN Sunday that Atlas did not have clearance from the Trump administration for his interview with RT. The official said Atlas "did it on his own without approval by the White House." Senior aides raised concerns internally after Atlas appeared on RT, the source said. RT said the interview was done from the White House property.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late