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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 547052 times)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9850 on: November 17, 2020, 09:22:37 PM »
China's CCP's a mastermind in trying to shift blame about this virus to other countries.

Thing is, they did beat the virus. Economy stayed sound, very few dead. Who else did that? Europe? US? Both failed miserably: economy tanked and in exchange for that....lots of dead. What a shame for the Western world.

Yes, El Cid, China has the situation completely under control.

 ;D

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9851 on: November 17, 2020, 09:43:43 PM »
China's CCP's a mastermind in trying to shift blame about this virus to other countries.

Thing is, they did beat the virus. Economy stayed sound, very few dead. Who else did that? Europe? US? Both failed miserably: economy tanked and in exchange for that....lots of dead. What a shame for the Western world.

Yes, El Cid, China has the situation completely under control.

 ;D

All with the power of positive thinking  :P

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9852 on: November 17, 2020, 11:40:26 PM »


North Dakota's coronavirus mortality rate is the highest of any U.S. state or country, according to an analysis of data from last week conducted by the Federation of American Scientists.

The analysis, first reported by HuffPost, shows that North Dakota has a rate of 18.2 deaths/day per 1 million people. South Dakota, meanwhile, has 17.4 deaths/day per million, the third-worst rate in the world. The states have a total population of under 2 million.

The two states have taken disparate approaches to the rising number of cases. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) imposed a new series of restrictions on businesses last week and imposed a new mandate in certain settings. "Our situation has changed, and we must change with it," he said.

However, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), a close ally of President Trump's, has vocally opposed mask mandates and questioned the efficacy of masks as a safeguard against the spread of the virus.

Modeling by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projected that continuing under current conditions would lead to deaths in both states more than doubling by March 1. This would mean topping more than 3,000 fatalities



On 9/11, if you killed 3000 citizens you were labeled a terrorist; now you're called a Republican governor.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9853 on: November 17, 2020, 11:43:54 PM »
not sure how good this study is, all self-reported.

But says major vectors include dog walking and grocery delivery!

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935120311208?via%3Dihub

"Highlights



    Living with a COVID-19 patient increased the risk of contagion by 60 times.


    Walking the dog increases the risk of contagion of COVID-19 by 78%.


    The most effective hygiene measure was disinfecting products purchased.


    Working on site at the workplace increased the risk of contagion by 76%.


    Obtaining basic products using home delivery service raised the risk of contagion."
Welp, looks like it's time to cull all canines in the EU, since they are now a public health hazard. Seems reasonable, since it will save lives. No?

Also imagine how stupid one has to be to think walking one's dog is NOT a contagion risk. I have seen idiots in biohazard suits walking their dogs in NYC as if their pooches are not touching and licking everything, and as if their hair were not contagion risks after re-entering home.

So maybe we should execute the owners for stupidity, instead of the pooches? I mean, if it's in the name of public safety, perhaps we should do both? Just to be safe?

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9854 on: November 18, 2020, 12:10:41 AM »

They did not beat the virus, they have state-controlled media and everything is covered up, and useful idiots in these threads like vox_mundi spread their propaganda.

You really can't help yourself can you? The point could have been made about China without attacking a frequent commenter on this site.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9855 on: November 18, 2020, 12:15:21 AM »

On 9/11, if you killed 3000 citizens you were labeled a terrorist; now you're called a Republican governor.

 ;D :-[ >:(

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9856 on: November 18, 2020, 03:32:03 AM »
Global total tops 55 million

The global total overnight passed 55 million cases, and the world is adding about 1 million new cases every 2 days. 1,333,479 people have died from their infections, according to Johns Hopkins tracking.

--------------------------------------------

Russian health officials said today that mutations have been detected in SARS-CoV-2 samples from Siberia, but they didn't say if the changes have affected virus transmissibility or pathogenicity, Reuters reported.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-cases/russia-says-coronavirus-mutations-appearing-in-siberia-as-deaths-hit-record-daily-high-idUSKBN27X106

---------------------------------------

Covid-19 Cases On the Rise In All 50 States, NBC News Data Shows
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1248006



Coronavirus cases have increased in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam over the past 14 days, the latest NBC News data showed Tuesday.

And in a dozen of those states — Vermont, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, Kansas, Pennsylvania and New York — infections have spiked in the last two weeks, meaning there has been a 100 percent or more increase in confirmed cases over 14 days.

The White House coronavirus task force bluntly stated in it's latest weekly report that there is "now aggressive, unrelenting, expanding broad community spread across the country, reaching most counties, without evidence of improvement but rather, further deterioration."

The task force report, obtained by NBC News, warned that current efforts to stop the spread "are inadequate and must be increased to flatten the curve" and that the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday has the potential to "amplify transmission considerably."

With so many new cases, hospitals across the country — and the doctors treating the deluge of new patients — were reaching the breaking point.

... So far the Trump Administration has not told Biden's coronavirus team “where the supplies are, how much of it the federal government has bought, how they might allocate it and what models they’re using," Dr. Nicole Lurie, who served at the Department of Health and Human Services under former President Barack Obama, told NBC News.

... In Cleveland, there were so many new infections reported over the weekend that city workers could not count them all in time for the Monday briefing.

“The City of Cleveland is experiencing an unprecedented surge in coronavirus cases, unlike anything yet reported during this pandemic,” the city said in a statement.

https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers/coronavirus-numbers-cleveland-surging/95-4a75253c-e864-4899-a173-70c7020611db

-----------------------------------------

Over 900 Mayo Clinic Staff Have Gotten COVID-19 In Past Two Weeks
https://www.postbulletin.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6766256-Over-900-Mayo-staff-have-gotten-COVID-19-in-past-two-weeks

ROCHESTER, Minn. — Over 900 Mayo Clinic staff have contracted COVID-19 in the past two weeks, according to a briefing on Tuesday, Nov. 17, by Dr. Amy Williams, dean of clinical practice.

Williams said that 93% of staff who have contracted the virus did so in the community, and that the majority of those who contracted the virus at work did so while eating in a break room with a mask off.

The 900 staff newly diagnosed with COVID-19 equals over one-third of the 2,981 Mayo employees diagnosed since the start of the outbreak. When you add in staff who are quarantined or taken offline in order to care for relatives, the clinic is currently experiencing a stable shortage of 1,500 staff systemwide, 1,000 in Rochester.

In other news, with 32 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the clinic's General Medicine ICU dedicated for the care of COVID-19, the clinic has filled all of its allotted ICU beds for the virus in Rochester, and is in the process of expanding that center by 12 to 13 beds. "We have 32 COVID patients needing tertiary care, and that's not good," Williams said. "It tells us we're in a surge."

The clinic is also managing "hundreds and hundreds" of COVID-19 patients in an outpatient setting, including many with the drug Remdesivir, after discharge, freeing up pressure on beds and staff.

------------------------------------

GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley, 87, Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/17/gop-sen-chuck-grassley-87-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has tested positive for coronavirus.

The lawmaker, who at 87 years old is considered at high risk for severe illness, tweeted Tuesday that he tested positive hours after he said he would isolate following exposure to the virus.

Grassley, who is president pro tempore of the Senate, presided over the chamber during votes Monday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckGrassley/status/1328830806291341312

Grassley's home state of Iowa has endured one of the country's worst coronavirus outbreaks as measured by per capita infections. The state most recently reported 2,071 cases, an increase of about 17% from a week before, according to the Covid Tracking Project.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/iowa

Iowa's Gov. Kim Reynolds issued the state's first mask mandate after the Republican spent months dismissing face covering restrictions as “feel good” measures. At 51.73 percent, Iowa now has the third highest Covid-19 positivity testing rate in the country after Wyoming and South Dakota.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9857 on: November 18, 2020, 05:13:38 AM »
South Australia has put their state into a 6 day lockdown while their numbers are still under 10 per day with a further 8 days minimal of eased restrictions

The short version is only one person is aloud out per day, essential services are the only businesses allowed to be open, schools are closed, and aged care etc are in isolation.

Testing is in overdrive to capture as many people as possible so the expectation is for an increase in case of numbers over the coming six days.
When the results are back, the next decision will be able to be made based on solid information.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-sa-plunged-into-strict-six-day-lockdown-022349155.html

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9858 on: November 18, 2020, 08:16:30 AM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9859 on: November 18, 2020, 08:27:18 AM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!
They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9860 on: November 18, 2020, 09:48:28 AM »
How is China controlling the ports of entry and borders?

Unless they have an absolutely airtight control of covid, their numbers are lies.

Do they test and quarantine everyone coming through the ports and borders?

If not, then how are they keeping contaminations from countries with outbreaks?
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9861 on: November 18, 2020, 10:04:35 AM »
On the Dakotas... Why? All they had to do was rough it out this winter and the vaccine would solve this problem. The ones lost wouldn't been lost. The ones hurt would be healthy today and for many years to come. True, masks and distancing sucks, but if not done by enough people, lockdowns become a necessity.

But do you know what is worse than masks, distancing, or lockdowns? Dead loved ones.

And this is the thing about this disease. The chances that it kills you are low relative to Cancer or heart disease. However, if we let it run its course all the way to herd immunity ( if it at all exists for this disease), chances are you are losing someone you care about, even someone you love.

In fact, the more social you are, the higher the chances you lose someone. That's why C19 is worst than Ebola.

So no. Fuck Donald Trump. Fuck Elon Musk. Fuck Neven.

I'll mask and isolate for a few more months until the vaccine gets here or people enough people start taking measures.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9862 on: November 18, 2020, 10:21:12 AM »
How is China controlling the ports of entry and borders?

Unless they have an absolutely airtight control of covid, their numbers are lies.

You could say the same of NZ, Aus, Taiwan, SKorea, Iceland and numerous others. Either all of them are liars or Europe/USA was clueless and *** up big time

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9863 on: November 18, 2020, 10:58:11 AM »
I have no problem believing that China has very good control of the ports.

I just don't know if they do. If they do, I have no problem believing that the data we see is true.

However, if their ports are mostly open like in the US, then they must have a very large testing/tracing protocol to keep up with lax ports.

I suspect they have Covid strict ports, huge testing regimes, merciless contact tracing and isolation.

Do they?  If they do, then the data is probably about true. Covid is not magic.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9864 on: November 18, 2020, 11:11:35 AM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!
They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

The no fat people claim is not correct. It is quite a problem in urban China, Taiwan is the nation with most obesity in the region.

As for your ´sexy time for science´ the Melbourne cluster started off that way.

PS: For people wondering about the last line. There was more which i deleted.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9865 on: November 18, 2020, 12:26:08 PM »
Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.

A lot of the covid measures are symbolic and not really consistent.
I don´t really have the impression we are reopening. Basically they are trying to figure out how not to ruin christmas. Also we have an election next year so that figures into that. They wanted to go to a regional approach where the mayors would be the bogeyman and not the central government but that idea tripped over the recent rise in cases.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9866 on: November 18, 2020, 02:09:10 PM »

They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

How does obesity affect the rate of transmission and case numbers? South Korea has 29,311 confirmed cases to date. The U.S. has had over 11 million in the same time frame. Hell, the U.S. had 157,261 new confirmed cases yesterday, over five times the total that South Korea has had during the entire pandemic. If that is not failure, I don't know what is.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9867 on: November 18, 2020, 02:14:06 PM »
Good points, kassy. It's interesting to see some posters twist their logic into pretzels in order to avoid seeing the blindingly obvious truth that mask wearing and in general a scientific approach to mask wearing are key components to controlling spread of this thing.

I hear that one problem in NL is that the word for 'mask' literally means 'mouth cap' mondkapje, so a lot of people fail to put it over their nose as well. (Of course, a lot of people fail to do that in the US, and we have no such linguistic excuse! )


US ranked last among 25 countries wrt use  of science in dealing with covid:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/11/are-governments-following-the-science-on-covid-19?fsrc=gp_en?utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_medium=social-organic&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3KjrZQ5wryVyFyhXrplYOqVWEDF4DtVUaPfpcnEWKxKetvWmil87yC104
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9868 on: November 18, 2020, 02:48:31 PM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!
They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

The no fat people claim is not correct. It is quite a problem in urban China, Taiwan is the nation with most obesity in the region.

As for your ´sexy time for science´ the Melbourne cluster started off that way.

PS: For people wondering about the last line. There was more which i deleted.

Eh, I have been there, I was referring to SK / Japan specifically but TW too -- they really do not have fat people. A few? Sure, but nothing like the US / EU.

SH: I do think being fat INCREASES transmission. Think of it this way -

65 year old person gets virus with BMI of 21. No pre-existing conditions. The virus replicates, they get a mild case.

65 year old person sneezes in an elevator. The elevator has a 12 year old child with a healthy BMI, and a 50 year old with a BMI of 35.

The 12 year old does not catch the virus even though they are exposed to it. Their immune system is healthy, the virus is killed upon entry. The virus does not replicate from there.

The 50 year old with a BMI of 35 is almost twice the normal bodyweight. They are engorged with both fat, and the ACE receptors that come with it.

Unlike the 12 year old, the virus enters and gains a foothold in the 50 year old. It feeds on the ACE receptors, and explodes in their body to massive numbers. As this explosion is taking place, the 50 year old fat person is now a major vector for transmission. So this person is not only more endangered by the virus, but by the virus entering their system, the QUANTITIES of the virus exiting the system are also MUCH higher, and they are simultaneously DANGEROUS to others vs. the healthy people who do not have an engorgement of ACE receptors, may not contract the virus to begin with, and do not provide hospitable environments for its spread.

Is that to say healthy people cannot spread the virus? No -- in my example I just gave, a healthy person spread the virus. But you can see how this cascade of transmission based on underlying factors could favor INCREASED virulence in vulnerable populations, which could also be another reason why people in nursing homes die en-masse, besides the fact that they are basically in jail, deprived of sunlight and Vitamin D, with their families waiting for them to die anyways.

Now take the person with a BMI of 35 at 50 years old, put them in an elevator with another 12 year old. The increased viral load emitting from 50 year old now INCREASES the chances of a symptomatic or asymptomatic infection in those around the 50 year old, including the 12 year old. While the virus still will not find hospitality in the 12 yo, the increased viral load of the one spreading the virus is critical to new infections.

This could also explain why many infections are "super spreading" events and why most infected do NOT go on to infect more than 1 other person (illustrated by the SK data previously, though in cities like NYC where transmission happened unfettered w public transit still running, it was a bit less important in all probability).

<This is not how it works, you are superfocusing on one aspect while obesity is one of many risk factors. Exploring the subject further would require science instead of free form essays, kassy>
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 08:45:38 PM by kassy »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9869 on: November 18, 2020, 04:14:13 PM »
Meanwhile

US & World Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US 7 day average daily deaths not just under 1,200, and a tad more than the maximum average in round 2 in the first week of August.

World daily new cases maybe stabilising but daily deaths still rising.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 04:20:33 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9870 on: November 18, 2020, 05:45:07 PM »
re Gerontocrat's first graph:
The first 'bump' was (roughly) New York City, New Jersey and Connecticut.  The second 'bump' was (roughly) Florida, Texas, Arizona and California.  The third (and current) bump is "everywhere".  Hugely different political (etc.) environments each time.  And each 'event' influences (e.g.,  hardens opinions) which help bring about the next.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9871 on: November 18, 2020, 08:11:19 PM »
I just found out my cousin Sandy's daughter Victoria is sick with Covid.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9872 on: November 18, 2020, 09:13:41 PM »
We have a project researching antibodies in blood donors.

Up to 5,1% in october
June 4,5%
April 2,8%

94% of people in the study retained antibodies over 6 months.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6091325/ruim-5-procent-van-nederlanders-beschikt-over-corona-antistoffen.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9873 on: November 18, 2020, 10:55:54 PM »
CDC Removes Guidance Pushing for School Reopenings Amid COVID Pandemic Saying ’New Scientific Information Has Emerged’
https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2020/11/cdc-removes-guidance-pushing-for-school-reopenings-amid-covid-pandemic-saying-new-scientific-information-has-emerged.html?outputType=amp

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has removed guidelines from its website that promoted in-person learning for schools.

The documents, which were written by political appointees outside of the CDC, were removed from the website in late October without a public announcement, the Hill reported.

Instead, the website now states that “the body of evidence is growing that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and contrary to early reports might play a role in transmission.”

It also lists in-person learning as a high risk.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/schools.html

The Trump administration pushed for reopening schools and experts criticized the CDC’s guidance, saying it appeared to be politically motivated and light on evidence, the news outlet reported.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9874 on: November 19, 2020, 01:53:56 AM »
Indiana Health Leaders Warn COVID-19 Risking Hospital Care
https://apnews.com/article/indiana-coronavirus-pandemic-fb84f15c4f22b5a608cd99b72e8ecf52

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — State health and hospital leaders warned Wednesday that Indiana could be facing months more of the surging coronavirus infections that have already started to overwhelm hospitals.

------------------------------------------------



--------------------------------------------------

Overwhelmed hospitals are converting chapels, cafeterias, waiting rooms, hallways, even a parking garage into patient treatment areas
https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-cases-hospitals-20201118-4zm3lthmvnb4xm53yggqwnh2gu-story.html

Overwhelmed hospitals are converting chapels, cafeterias, waiting rooms, hallways, even a parking garage into patient treatment areas. Staff members are desperately calling around to other medical centers in search of open beds. Fatigue and frustration are setting in among front-line workers.

Conditions inside the nation’s hospitals are deteriorating by the day as the coronavirus rages across the U.S. at an unrelenting pace.

“We are depressed, disheartened and tired to the bone,” said Alison Johnson, director of critical care at Johnson City Medical Center in Tennessee, adding that she drives to and from work some days in tears.

The number of people in the hospital with COVID-19 in the U.S. has doubled in the past month and set new records every day this week. As of Tuesday, more than 76,000 were hospitalized with the virus.

... Texas is rushing thousands of additional medical staff to overworked hospitals as the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients statewide accelerates toward 8,000 for the first time since a deadly summer outbreak.

In the worsening rural Panhandle, roughly half of the admitted patients in Lubbock’s two main hospitals had COVID-19, and a dozen people with the virus were waiting in the emergency room for beds to open up Tuesday night, said Dr. Ron Cook, the Lubbock County health authority.

In the Texas border city of El Paso, overwhelmed morgues have begun paying jail inmates $2 an hour to help transport the bodies of virus victims. The crush of patients is forcing the city to send its non-COVID-19 cases to hospitals elsewhere in the state.

“There are only so many medical personnel to go around. And I think what we’re seeing in places like El Paso is not sustainable in all or a large part of the state,” said Dr. Mark McClellan, a former head of the Food and Drug Administration.

The only health care system in the Appalachian mountains of Tennessee and Virginia is warning that it and its workers are stretched so thin that is only a matter of time before its hospitals will have to turn patients away.

In Reno, Nevada, Renown Regional Medical Center began moving some coronavirus patients into its parking garage.

In Topeka, Kansas, Stormont Vail Health devoted an entire hospital floor to COVID-19 patients as their numbers swelled, hitting 90 on Wednesday. The hospital also converted two surgery waiting rooms for use by non-infected patients, spokesman Matt Lara said.

-----------------------------------------

Pro-Trump Coronavirus Truthers Try to Invade Utah Hospital Overrun With COVID-19 Patients: Report
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-truthers-try-to-invade-utah-valley-hospital-where-patrice-grossman-died

When President Donald Trump was voted out of office in the 2020 election, one of the top reasons why millions of U.S. residents voted to replace him with former Vice President Joe Biden was his woefully inadequate response to the coronavirus pandemic. Regardless, so-called “coronavirus truthers” on the far right continue to insist that the pandemic is merely a hoax that President-elect Biden and other Democrats used to harm Trump’s presidency. And at a Utah hospital that is being overrun with COVID-19 patients, the Daily Beast reports, health care workers are having to cope with extremists who don’t even believe that the patients are sick.

That belief is shared by the conspiracy theorists who made repeated visits to the hospital in recent weeks. They decided that the small number of cars outside the Provo facility was evidence that the pandemic is a hoax. They entered the hospital with video cameras seeking to film what they believed would be an equally empty ICU.

... “None of the intruders seem to have gained entry to the ICU (at Utah Valley Hospital),” Daly explains. “But had they succeeded, they would have only been able to document it was, in fact, at full capacity, with a brave and dedicated staff under great physical and emotional strain. Had the intruders been less deluded, they might have understood that the small number (of) cars in the parking lot is explained by posted restrictions on visitors that are standard at hospitals during the pandemic. COVID-19 is not some minor illness where you might drive yourself to the hospital and leave your car outside for a few hours.”

Patricia Grossman, a neonatal intensive care nurse at Utah Valley Hospital, died from COVID-19 on October 30 — and her widower, Bryan Grossman is understandably fed up with coronavirus truthers. Bryan Grossman told the Daily Beast, “They’re idiots. The hospital is filled with COVID people — COVID patients who don’t have cars.… I just don’t understand people sometimes…. The big thing I think is so silly about all this is: how could this possibly be fake? The whole world would have to be faking it.”

The truthers, Bryan Grossman added, believe they are standing up for the outgoing President Trump.

“They’re trying to protect the president,” Grossman explained. “They want to make this all fake. It’s not fake. Talk to your nearest nurse or doctor. They’ll tell you this is real."
« Last Edit: November 19, 2020, 02:19:30 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9875 on: November 19, 2020, 03:55:16 AM »
Adelaide, Australia.

The number of people in isolation is now 3200 with 12000 tests per day being done.
23 locally acquired cases with 17 suspected.

The Govt Premier has said that the lessons from Melbourne and other regions around the world that keep the virus at bay have been learned and applied to their situation.

BBR can talk fat people being the reason for the spread, but in Australia, there are plenty of fat people yet the virus is contained through... surprise, surprise... appropriate lockdowns, mask wearing by over 95% of the population, social distancing, a truck load of testing and contact tracing.

It worked in Melbourne, and we are seeing Adelaide responding based on the lessons learned from inaction and indecision.


https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-south-australia-new-suspected-cases-emerge-002146091.html

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9876 on: November 19, 2020, 10:33:17 AM »
The way I look at it, Covid 19 risk increases exponentially with age and linearly with BMI.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9877 on: November 19, 2020, 10:49:39 AM »
The way I look at it, Covid 19 risk increases exponentially with age and linearly with BMI.
Yes it does.... but it isn't the reason for the outbreaks being so bad in Europe and the USA and being under control in other countries.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9878 on: November 19, 2020, 01:56:24 PM »
BMI is a small part of the reason for the failure of the west. Misinformation and mismanagement are factors that bear much greater weight.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9879 on: November 19, 2020, 02:27:52 PM »
My cousin guardian has reinforced my be super careful imperative, telling me seven people had died in my county.
I guess this is the New Notmal.
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dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9880 on: November 19, 2020, 02:36:15 PM »
n of 1 but I'm 5'11"/155 lbs (176 cm/70.3 kg, BMI=21.6). I'm fit and active and very, very careful about masking and contacts and I caught the frigging thing. I did fine, but still was quite sick and it was not pleasant.

Another anecdote but my niece and her partner live in Shanghai. Their lives there are social, active and normal and the pandemic is pretty much in the past for them. They both know many people back in the states that are getting sick.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9881 on: November 19, 2020, 03:37:11 PM »
'This Will Get Worse.' A Top US Official Says Hospitalizations and Deaths Will Keep Climbing as Covid-19 Cases Explode Nationwide
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/19/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

... "We have had one million cases documented over the past week, our rate of rise is higher than it even was in the summer, we have hospitalizations going up 25% week over week," Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, told CNN. "There are so many more cases that we have, that deaths are going up."

It is what experts have repeatedly warned in the past weeks, as Covid-19 conditions continue to deteriorate across the country: things will get worse before they get better.

Infection numbers in Massachusetts are eight times what they were on Labor Day and hospitalizations have quadrupled. Only 6% of Oklahoma's ICU beds remain available. In Arkansas, more than 1,000 people could lose their lives in the next five weeks, according to the governor. In Illinois, the virus is now the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer.

More than 250,000 Americans have so far died of the virus -- a higher death toll than any other country -- and another 188,000 are projected to lose their lives over the next three and a half months, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. By mid-January, the IHME model predicts more than 2,100 Americans could be dying daily.

------------------------------------------

What Happens When Leaders Won’t Shut Disease-Spreading Businesses and Make Mask Shunning a Political Statement
https://thiscantbehappening.net/its-easy-to-see-what-happens-in-a-pandemic-when-leaders-make-mask-shunning-a-political-statement-and-dont-close-down-contagion-causing-businesses/


This scatter plot of Covid-19 infections per 300,000 population (Y axis) vs percentage share of vote going to Trump by state (X-axis) certainly looks like a case of Darwinian natural selection at work

The above graph speaks for itself, but it certainly unarguably demonstrates how Darwin’s theory of natural selection works, with creatures that successfully face adversity surviving to reproduce successfully while those that fail tests of adversity tend to die off.

It shows that Republican-led states that, in the face of higher and higher numbers of Covid victims, and higher and higher deaths from the disease and complications among those who survived it, continued to keep businesses like gyms, theaters and restaurants open, that refused to mandate mask wearing in public (or even praised mask refusals as patriot defense of “freedom”), that hosted big rallies by Trump and his non-masked supporters, and that voted overwhelmingly for Trump’s re-election, are being hit much harder by the Coronavirus Pandemic than are states led by Democrats and populated by a majority of people who voted on Nov. 3 for a science-backing presidential candidate, Joe Biden.

Now, belatedly, governors of Covid-19 stricken states like North and South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska are belatedly calling for residents to wear masks and even considering some business closures. But the proverbial horse has long since left the barn, along with the sheep, pigs and cows. There’s no point in closing the barn door now, because the barn’s on fire. ... it’s a little late.

The disease, now the second-most deadly epidemic in US history including during the colonial era,  is now officially spreading out of control.

One can debate the reasons why people who were witnessing first-hand the results of President Trump’s manifestly incompetent and self-indulgent catastrophically leadership in the eight months prior to Election Day that the coronavirus was worsening continued to support him. (One South Dakota nurse reports that even as they lie dying in the hospital from Covid infections, some are denying that it is a “real” disease!) That is a matter for political scientists and psychologists. But the facts on the ground are undeniable. Following Trumpian anti-science tweets is deadly for people and is devastating the economy too.

---------------------------------------------

Caribbean Cruise COVID Outbreak Expands; Cruise Line Cancels Voyages
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/cruise-line-cancels-voyages-after-caribbean-covid-outbreak-infects-9/

Plans for luxury cruises have quickly—and perhaps predictably—run aground in the Caribbean.

Cruise ship-operator SeaDream Yacht Club this week canceled all voyages for the rest of the year after one of its ships—the first to resume sailing in the region amid the pandemic—was wrecked by a COVID-19 outbreak last week.

So far, at least seven of the 53 passengers and two of the 66 crew aboard the yacht-style SeaDream I liner have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. The infected and those testing negative have since disembarked.

SeaDream set sail on the crusade without many of its colleagues. The trade organization that represents 95 percent of the industry, Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), had announced earlier that it was extending a voluntary suspension of all cruises through the end of the year.

But SeaDream shoved off, touting its extensive health protocols and precautions. The cruise-line operator invited fewer guests on board, tried to maintain physical distance, encouraged mask wearing, and altered off-vessel excursions to keep passengers from mingling with other people on shore.

Passengers were also required to test negative for SARS-CoV-2 multiple times to try to create a COVID-free bubble at sea. Though passengers took highly accurate RT-PCR lab tests prior to boarding, onboard [crew] testing appears to have relied on a rapid test by Abbott, which is not intended to detect asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infections. Experts have repeatedly raised questions about its use for general screenings, particularly in the wake of outbreaks at the White House, which relied solely on Abbott testing to prevent disease spread.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/health/covid-white-house-testing.html

Four days after SeaDream I departed from Barbados, a passenger developed symptoms and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. The ship immediately headed back to the Caribbean island, with all passengers and nonessential crew in quarantine. In the end, SeaDream admitted that all its efforts to prevent the spread of disease at sea were “not sufficient.”

Passengers who tested negative were allowed to disembark and go to the airport to catch flights back to their home countries. ... crew members said that some infected passengers did not go to an isolation center in the Barbados as expected. A group of six people traveling together—which included the first person who became ill as well as four other infected people—"had returned home to the US by private jet, five of them having tested positive.”

... The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had reportedly intended to extend a no-sail order for cruise ships to February 2021. However, the agency was overruled by the Trump administration, which had the no-sail order lifted October 30. At the time of the decision, health officials suggested that the move was made prior to the presidential election to appease the cruise industry, which has economic influence in the swing state of Florida.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/trump-admin-overrules-cdc-director-on-extending-ban-on-cruises/
« Last Edit: November 19, 2020, 04:01:54 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9882 on: November 19, 2020, 04:22:39 PM »
Quote
It is what experts have repeatedly warned in the past weeks, as Covid-19 conditions continue to deteriorate across the country: things will get worse before they get better.
And who said anything about them getting better?

Quote
The above graph speaks for itself, but it certainly unarguably demonstrates how Darwin’s theory of natural selection works, with creatures that successfully face adversity surviving to reproduce successfully while those that fail tests of adversity tend to die off.
Actually, evolution shows why defects that don't remove the failures until after they reproduce don't tend to get removed.
Ninety-blip percent of covid deaths are after the age of 60, so stupidity does not get selected out.

Quote
Now, belatedly, governors of Covid-19 stricken states like North and South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska are belatedly calling for residents to wear masks and even considering some business closures.
Gee, I wonder if they did it belatedly  :D
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9883 on: November 19, 2020, 07:42:50 PM »
If You’re Age 65 or Older, You May Not Get Vaccine as Quickly as You Want
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/older-folks-who-want-covid-19-vaccine-may-not-get-one-so-quickly.html

Some older Americans may not get a Covid-19 vaccine as quickly as they want. Although Medicare — which insures much of the 65-and-older crowd — changed its rules to cover a fast-tracked vaccine, the availability of initial doses will be limited.

While it’s possible that one or two coronavirus vaccines become available in December, the distribution is expected to happen in phases. If states follow guidelines issued last month by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, phase 1A would target healthcare workers and first responders. Phase1B would include individuals with underlying health conditions that put them at significant risk for serious illness, as well as older adults living in congregate or crowded settings (which would include nursing homes and the like).

All older adults who weren’t included in phase 1 would be among the populations targeted in phase 2. It’s uncertain at this point exactly when all of this will occur, given it depends at least partly on vaccine availability and the logistics of distributing it.

Trump administration's refusal to brief President-elect Biden's staff on vaccine logistics, location and failure to fund states for vaccine distribution will likely cost lives.

-------------------------------------

More Testing Delays Ahead of the Holidays
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/covid-testing-faces-delays-again-as-demand-spikes-ahead-of-the-holidays-.html

With the holidays approaching, some companies calling workers back to the office and anxiety over the virus rising with the daily case count, demand for accurate Covid-19 testing is spiking. The surge in demand is yet again stressing the supply chain for PCR molecular tests — the gold standard in Covid-19 testing — leading to long lines for testing, shortages in testing kits and other supplies, and processing delays across the country.

Dr. Patrick Godbey, the president of the College of American Pathologists and the director of two labs in Georgia, said he’s “very worried” about being able to meet the needs of his patients in the weeks ahead.

“I do not have enough,” Godbey said. “I’m very worried that as the cases go up, that I will not have enough reagents and I will not have enough consumables.”

--------------------------------------

Pandemic is Causing Many Americans to Face Hunger for the First Time
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/covid-pandemic-first-time-many-americans-experienced-food-insecurity.html

About 4 in 10 Americans say they couldn’t afford to buy enough food for themselves and their families for the first time as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a recent poll.

About half of those polled by OnePoll in conjunction with Two Good Yogurt say they’ve struggled to afford food during the pandemic, while 37% report skipping meals themselves so there was enough food for their children to eat.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-survey-explores-evolving-dynamics-of-those-experiencing-food-insecurity-for-the-first-time-in-covid-era-301174188.html

The majority of Americans experiencing food insecurity — which is generally defined as when an individual doesn’t have reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable food — say the expiration of many federal assistance programs, such as enhanced unemployment benefits and stimulus payments, has made it even more difficult. About half report that they’re struggling to provide food for their families more now than they were at the beginning of the pandemic.

More than 50 million Americans will likely experience food insecurity this year, including about 17 million children, according to estimates from Feeding America, a leading national nonprofit food bank network.

--------------------------------------



More than 11.5 million Americans have been diagnosed with Covid-19 and more than 250,000 have died, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. More than 76,000 people are hospitalized, the highest number of the entire pandemic, according to the Covid Tracking Project.

... Nursing shortages are gripping regions of the country with the most out of control spread – such as in North Dakota where 91% of intensive care unit beds are occupied, and 35% of facilities are reporting a “critical nursing shortage”, according to the Covid Exit Strategy project.

... Schmidt’s hospital in Kansas, part of the for-profit hospital group HCA Healthcare, cut staffing in June to what the union National Nurses United described as “unsafe” levels. “During a historical pandemic, we need more nurses, not fewer. I’ve seen a mass exodus of nurses, and more are planning to leave,” said Schmidt.

Another Kansas nurse, Cheyanne Seematter, said: “It kind of feels like we’re just, you know, yelling into the abyss,” as healthcare workers beg Americans to keep the virus under control. “We keep telling everybody to stay home, wear a mask, that it is actually bad here.”

“We are depressed, disheartened and tired to the bone,” said Alison Johnson, director of critical care at Johnson City Medical Center in Tennessee, adding that she drives to and from work some days in tears.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/19/us-hospitals-coronavirus-latest-spike-staffing-shortages-patients

---------------------------------------------

... Trump's response to their sacrifices? ... crickets
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9884 on: November 19, 2020, 08:05:53 PM »
Ohio House passes bill barring governor/health director from shutting down businesses:

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/ohio-house-passes-bill-preventing-governor-health-director-from-shutting-down-businesses

sidd



kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9885 on: November 19, 2020, 08:19:00 PM »
But he can veto that so it´s more for the political narrative (although it probably does not help things).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9886 on: November 19, 2020, 08:47:57 PM »
Reminds me of the Death Eaters in Harry Potter

https://harrypotter.fandom.com/wiki/Death_Eaters

... They were a motley collection; a mixture of the weak seeking protection, the ambitious seeking some shared glory, and the thuggish gravitating toward a leader who could show them more refined forms of cruelty.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Eater
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9887 on: November 19, 2020, 09:31:35 PM »
' By mid-January, the IHME model predicts more than 2,100 Americans could be dying daily.' .. yesterday deaths were already at 1,974 .. not for the first time the forecast looks likely to be a gross underestimate .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9888 on: November 19, 2020, 09:48:20 PM »
I have no problem believing that China has very good control of the ports.

I just don't know if they do. If they do, I have no problem believing that the data we see is true.

However, if their ports are mostly open like in the US, then they must have a very large testing/tracing protocol to keep up with lax ports.

I suspect they have Covid strict ports, huge testing regimes, merciless contact tracing and isolation.

Do they?  If they do, then the data is probably about true. Covid is not magic.

They seem to be doing so.
A Dutch journalist returned to her base in Shanghai in September. She described her experiences, including social pressure not to interpret the voluntary last PCR test as something to be skipped: https://www.trouw.nl/buitenland/quarantaine-werkt-ze-zouden-het-in-nederland-eens-moeten-proberen~b5d5ec87/
(in Dutch)

An n=1 story? True, but likely to be valid for larger numbers.
In this way, I understand Covid can be surpressed. But in Europe and North America, too many people still seem to regard 'economy' and 'public health' as opposites, while their governments are reluctant to impose harsh measures out of fear that leaders of populist parties may benefit too much at the next elections.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9889 on: November 19, 2020, 10:54:58 PM »
' By mid-January, the IHME model predicts more than 2,100 Americans could be dying daily.' .. yesterday deaths were already at 1,974 .. not for the first time the forecast looks likely to be a gross underestimate .
If that is the forecast for mid-January (seven weeks from now!) it is, in any case, an overestimate. Most probably the curve will be bent earlier than that.


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9890 on: November 20, 2020, 12:49:06 AM »
By mid-January, the IHME model predicts more than 2,100 Americans could be dying daily.


Hah! The U.S. recorded 1971 deaths yesterday and have 1833 deaths so far today. We are going to blow past 2100 per day by mid December.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9891 on: November 20, 2020, 01:18:54 AM »
One can debate the reasons why people who were witnessing first-hand the results of President Trump’s manifestly incompetent and self-indulgent catastrophically leadership in the eight months prior to Election Day that the coronavirus was worsening continued to support him. (One South Dakota nurse reports that even as they lie dying in the hospital from Covid infections, some are denying that it is a “real” disease!) That is a matter for political scientists and psychologists. But the facts on the ground are undeniable. Following Trumpian anti-science tweets is deadly for people and is devastating the economy too.


While I am in no way capable of performing the research, I suspect that stupidity/ignorance is more highly correlated with infection rates than is obesity although stupid and fat can be lethal.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9892 on: November 20, 2020, 01:34:44 AM »
One Map From the White House Coronavirus Task Force Shows Just How Bad the US Outbreak Is Right Now
https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-coronavirus-task-force-map-us-covered-in-covid-2020-11?amp

The coronavirus is spreading all over the US as temperatures fall and more people gather indoors.

One million new cases of the virus were diagnosed nationwide last week, washing the map of the country in red:



On Thursday, both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House urged people to stay home this Thanksgiving and keep celebrations single-household affairs.

"We're alarmed," Dr. Henry Walke, the CDC's COVID-19 incident manager, said on a call with reporters on Thursday announcing the guidance cautioning against Thanksgiving travel. "COVID-19 is turning out to be quite a formidable foe."

At the White House press conference, Dr. Deborah Birx spoke in front of an alarming map that showed COVID-19 outbreaks everywhere.



... Dr. Eli Perencevich, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Iowa, told Business Insider that Americans should buckle up and prepare for a long, difficult winter.

"Right now, I don't see it getting better at all," Perencevich said. "I mean, I think it's still going up and up and up. I think given that hospitalizations and deaths lag a couple of weeks and a month after cases rise, and cases have been rising close to exponentially over the past month, that there's really no end in sight."

--------------------------------------------------

Delirium Fairly Common In Older COVID-19 Patients
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/11/delirium-fairly-common-older-covid-19-patients

A study published today in JAMA Network Open shows that 28% of older COVID-19 patients at seven US emergency departments (EDs) had delirium, putting them at higher risk of an intensive care unit (ICU) stay and death.

A research team led by Massachusetts General Hospital scientists found that, of 817 COVID-19 patients 65 and older arriving at EDs, 226 (28%) had delirium, which was the sixth most common of all signs and symptoms. Delirium was a primary symptom in 37 (16%) of patients with delirium. Eighty-four patients with delirium (37%) had no typical COVID-19 symptoms, such as fever or shortness of breath. (Older adults are less likely than younger people to respond to infection with a fever.)

Delirium, which involves confusion, impaired consciousness, disorientation, lack of attention, agitation, and other cognitive problems, affects mainly older people, although it's estimated to remain undiagnosed in two thirds of patients, the researchers said. In older patients with non-coronavirus infections, delirium may be the first or only sign of illness.

Of all patients with delirium, 112 (50%) visited the ED within 2 days of symptom onset, and 213 (94%) were admitted to the hospital. Delirium was linked to hospitalization (aRR, 1.06), ICU stays (aRR, 1.67), release to a rehabilitation facility (aRR, 1.55), and death (aRR, 1.24).

Mean patient age was 77.7 years, 26% lived in a nursing home, 30% had been previously diagnosed as having cognitive impairment or dementia, 30% had previously had a stroke, 47% were men, 62% were white, 27% were black, and 7% were Hispanic or Latino.

They said that the rate of delirium in their study was much higher than that the 7% to 20% usually reported in studies in the ED setting before COVID-19, even though the risk factors for delirium are comparable to those reported in ED and hospitalized patients before the pandemic.

Delirium in Older Patients With COVID-19 Presenting to the Emergency Department
http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.29540

------------------------------------------------

Quick Quiz: Name a famous over-65 senior who could unleash 2000 nuclear weapons in seconds and who just had a bout of COVID and who's also exhibiting confusion, impaired consciousness, disorientation, lack of attention, agitation, and other cognitive problems
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 01:59:29 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9893 on: November 20, 2020, 02:38:48 AM »
Quote
Quick Quiz: Name a famous over-65 senior who could unleash 2000 nuclear weapons in seconds and who just had a bout of COVID and who's also exhibiting confusion, impaired consciousness, disorientation, lack of attention, agitation, and other cognitive problems
Trump, certainly. But also Putin who of course does not have covid ( https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8965073/Kremlin-denies-Putin-health-problems-coughing-fit.html ). And in a couple months Biden, another senior citizen, will have the red button under his finger. Mental problems, like other long term problems of covid, are more likely with age and all three are long in the tooth.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9894 on: November 20, 2020, 04:02:19 AM »
WHO Tells Doctors Not to Use Gilead's Remdesivir as a Coronavirus Treatment, Splitting With FDA
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/b-wgd111920.php
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/19/coronavirus-who-tells-doctors-dont-use-gileads-remdesivir-splitting-with-fda.html

A World Health Organization panel advised doctors Thursday against using Gilead Sciences' antiviral drug remdesivir as a treatment for patients hospitalized with Covid-19, saying there is currently "no evidence" that it improves survival or shortens recovery time — standing in stark contrast to U.S. regulatory guidance on the drug.

The WHO Guideline Development Group, a panel of international experts who provide advice to the agency, said its recommendation is based on new data comparing the effects of several drug treatments, including data from four international randomized trials involving more than 7,000 patients hospitalized with the disease.

"After thoroughly reviewing this evidence, the WHO GDG expert panel, which includes experts from around the world including four patients who have had covid-19, concluded that remdesivir has no meaningful effect on mortality or on other important outcomes for patients, such as the need for mechanical ventilation or time to clinical improvement," the group wrote in a press release.

The recommendation was published in the British medical trade journal The BMJ on Friday in the U.K.

... Some medical experts note data on the drug's effectiveness has been mixed. In October, a study coordinated by the WHO indicated that the medication had "little or no effect" on death rates among hospitalized patients. The study was conducted in 405 hospitals across 30 countries on 11,266 patients, with 2,750 given remdesivir.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/who-remdesivir-has-little-or-no-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-deaths.html

-----------------------------------------

Covid-19: UK Government Faces Legal Action After Awarding £250m in PPE Contracts to Jewellery Company
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4489

The UK government is facing another legal challenge after it awarded £250m (€279.5m; $332.3m) worth of personal protective equipment (PPE) contracts to a US jewellery company without any advertisement or competitive tender process.

The latest charge says that Saiger, a Florida based jewellery company, had no experience of supplying PPE and had never previously been awarded a public contract by any central government department. It is challenging one of the many contracts that the company was awarded—namely, the contract entered into on 4 June for £70.5m to supply 10.2 million gowns.

In its announcement of the lawsuit the Good Law Project said that the Department for Health and Social Care had overpaid for the equipment, paying Saiger £7.05 per gown despite the weighted average price for PPE gowns being set at £4.60.

... The Good Law Project said, “Within two weeks of opening its portal inviting tenders for PPE in March 2020, the UK government had 24 000 offers from 16 000 suppliers, many of whom had experience in providing PPE for healthcare professionals. Surprisingly, three of the biggest beneficiaries of government contract awards were companies specialising in jewellery (Saiger), pest control (Pestfix) and an opaque ‘family office’ owned through a tax haven (Ayanda).”

... Julia Patterson, founder of EveryDoctor, said, “It is quite simply heart breaking to NHS staff to see this mismanagement of public funds exposed. Over 600 of our colleagues have died of covid-19, many of whom were not supplied with adequate lifesaving PPE . . .

“At the most crucial time in the first wave of this pandemic, when gowns were fast running out, a contract has been given to a company with no experience in supplying PPE, no experience in keeping healthcare workers and their patients safe.

... The investigation into government procurement during the pandemic found that the government awarded over 8600 contracts worth £18bn (€20bn; $24bn) by 31 July, with most of these (£16.2bn worth) awarded by the Department of Health and Social Care and its national bodies.

Contracts totalling £10.5bn have been awarded without a competitive tender process, the NAO found.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4474
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 09:31:10 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9895 on: November 20, 2020, 05:52:19 AM »
Natural deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.19.389916v1.full.pdf

Abstract
Zoonotic pandemics follow the spillover of animal viruses into highly susceptible human populations. Often, pandemics wane, becoming endemic pathogens. Sustained circulation requires evasion of protective immunity elicited by previous infections. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has initiated a global pandemic. Since coronaviruses have a lower substitution rate than other RNA viruses this gave hope that spike glycoprotein is an antigenically stable vaccine target. However, we describe an evolutionary pattern of recurrent deletions at four antigenic sites in the spike glycoprotein. Deletions abolish binding of a reported neutralizing antibody. Circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants are continually exploring genetic and antigenic space via deletion in individual patients and at global scales. In viruses where substitutions are relatively infrequent, deletions represent a mechanism to drive rapid evolution, potentially promoting antigenic drift.



Covid-19 mink variants discovered in humans in seven countries
https://theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/covid-19-mink-variants-discovered-in-humans-in-seven-countries

Denmark, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, Russia and the US have all reported cases of mink-related mutations.

Until now there had been no widespread reports of mink variants in humans outside Denmark. But scientists uploading virus sequencing and variant information to Gisaid, a global database initiative, said there have been signs of the mink variants around the world.

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9896 on: November 20, 2020, 06:28:37 AM »
Did anyone post this already?

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620974755

"We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions. SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy. This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic."

"First Published November 11, 2020"

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9897 on: November 20, 2020, 08:12:00 AM »
5 leading causes of death in the US (2018):

Heart disease: 655,381
Cancer: 599,274
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 167,127
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 159,486
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 147,810

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

C19 deaths in the US to date according to worldometers: 258,333

C19 is the third leading cause of death in the US. Will it become 2nd or 1st before the end of the year?

It could, but it would require no restrictions. Many states are already making the effort required to get their people through this winter and to the vaccine.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9898 on: November 20, 2020, 12:20:50 PM »
Quote
Quick Quiz: Name a famous over-65 senior who could unleash 2000 nuclear weapons in seconds and who just had a bout of COVID and who's also exhibiting confusion, impaired consciousness, disorientation, lack of attention, agitation, and other cognitive problems
Trump, certainly. But also Putin who of course does not have covid ( https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8965073/Kremlin-denies-Putin-health-problems-coughing-fit.html ). And in a couple months Biden, another senior citizen, will have the red button under his finger. Mental problems, like other long term problems of covid, are more likely with age and all three are long in the tooth.

But Biden, comparatively, is in much better health. He also is not a psychopath.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9899 on: November 20, 2020, 12:29:40 PM »
Natural deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.19.389916v1.full.pdf

Abstract
Zoonotic pandemics follow the spillover of animal viruses into highly susceptible human populations. Often, pandemics wane, becoming endemic pathogens. Sustained circulation requires evasion of protective immunity elicited by previous infections. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has initiated a global pandemic. Since coronaviruses have a lower substitution rate than other RNA viruses this gave hope that spike glycoprotein is an antigenically stable vaccine target. However, we describe an evolutionary pattern of recurrent deletions at four antigenic sites in the spike glycoprotein. Deletions abolish binding of a reported neutralizing antibody. Circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants are continually exploring genetic and antigenic space via deletion in individual patients and at global scales. In viruses where substitutions are relatively infrequent, deletions represent a mechanism to drive rapid evolution, potentially promoting antigenic drift.



Covid-19 mink variants discovered in humans in seven countries
https://theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/covid-19-mink-variants-discovered-in-humans-in-seven-countries

Denmark, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, Russia and the US have all reported cases of mink-related mutations.

Until now there had been no widespread reports of mink variants in humans outside Denmark. But scientists uploading virus sequencing and variant information to Gisaid, a global database initiative, said there have been signs of the mink variants around the world.

Not what I wanted to read this morning.