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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 419663 times)

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9900 on: November 20, 2020, 12:29:40 PM »
Natural deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.19.389916v1.full.pdf

Abstract
Zoonotic pandemics follow the spillover of animal viruses into highly susceptible human populations. Often, pandemics wane, becoming endemic pathogens. Sustained circulation requires evasion of protective immunity elicited by previous infections. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has initiated a global pandemic. Since coronaviruses have a lower substitution rate than other RNA viruses this gave hope that spike glycoprotein is an antigenically stable vaccine target. However, we describe an evolutionary pattern of recurrent deletions at four antigenic sites in the spike glycoprotein. Deletions abolish binding of a reported neutralizing antibody. Circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants are continually exploring genetic and antigenic space via deletion in individual patients and at global scales. In viruses where substitutions are relatively infrequent, deletions represent a mechanism to drive rapid evolution, potentially promoting antigenic drift.



Covid-19 mink variants discovered in humans in seven countries
https://theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/covid-19-mink-variants-discovered-in-humans-in-seven-countries

Denmark, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, Russia and the US have all reported cases of mink-related mutations.

Until now there had been no widespread reports of mink variants in humans outside Denmark. But scientists uploading virus sequencing and variant information to Gisaid, a global database initiative, said there have been signs of the mink variants around the world.

Not what I wanted to read this morning.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9901 on: November 20, 2020, 12:44:22 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US Data
Daily deaths 19 November 2,065. Big increases in the last 3 days.

World Data
New cases seem perhaps to be stabilising but deaths.....
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9902 on: November 20, 2020, 12:54:55 PM »
Unfortunately, new cases in the U.S. are not stabilizing. We now have out of control community transmission across most of the country. Testing is inadequate (some states have positivity rates in excess of 40%) and contact tracing is impossible under these conditions. This situation will not improve significantly as there is insufficient will to impose rigorous lockdowns which is the only effective approach to get it under control. Likely 400,000 dead by the end of January, possibly much more as the next 6 weeks of holidays will promote rapid transmission through extended families.

"Let's go kill grandma."

The U.S. will become the primary case study on how not to address a pandemic.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 01:01:25 PM by Shared Humanity »

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9903 on: November 20, 2020, 01:08:20 PM »


C19 is the third leading cause of death in the US. Will it become 2nd or 1st before the end of the year?



England is running at about 86k cancer, 59k heart and other circulatory disease, 50k COVID, 41k Dementia and Alzheimers, since COVID deaths started to be certified in March. Excess patterns show there's some overcounting in heart disease and undercounting in COVID, so I'd put them in a tie for the epidemic to date, although for 2020 as a whole COVID would be closer to Alzheimers than heart disease. https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9904 on: November 20, 2020, 01:24:08 PM »
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

This weeks infection survey estimates 665k infected people in England during the week of 8-14 November, up marginally from the previous week (654k). Considering this was the first full week of the current lockdown this is not a good sign.

Age estimates are a lot more uncertain, but if anything there's an increase in schools balanced by a decrease in the over 70s, so there's a decent chance death rates will drop a bit faster or sooner than the case numbers suggest.


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9905 on: November 20, 2020, 01:24:22 PM »
Taiwan (population 23 million, deaths to date 7)

Message from family friend who moved to Taiwan 3 months ago.

'We are leading "normal" lives. The kids attend school. We eat at restaurants and ride public transportation. There are protocols and NO ONE yells about masks, tracing or quarantine (we were under strict quarantine for 14 days following arrival).'

Lesson #1: If you are planning to have a pandemic, try not to have your country led by a psychopath.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9906 on: November 20, 2020, 02:28:11 PM »


-------------------------------------------------------------



---------------------------------------------------

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/20/along-with-everything-else-trump-has-killed-satire-as-well
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 03:05:21 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9907 on: November 20, 2020, 05:49:48 PM »
For the First Time, More Than 80,000 Americans are Hospitalized With COVID-19
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2020-11-20?mod=hp_lead_pos2

The U.S. reported 187,833 new cases for Thursday, exceeding its last daily record by more than 10,000. That record was set last Friday, when the U.S. reported 177,224 new cases.

There were 80,698 people hospitalized with the disease as of Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, crossing the 80,000 mark for the first time just nine days after first passing 60,000. The U.S. has set records for hospitalizations each day since Nov. 10, according to the project’s data.

In Ohio, lawmakers passed a bill Thursday aimed at limiting Gov. Mike DeWine’s stepped-up response to the pandemic, in the latest challenge to the governor's tighter restrictions on businesses and residents.

The U.S. reported 2,015 deaths from Covid-19 on Thursday, bringing its total to 252,555. Deaths are also on the rise, with the seven-day average exceeding the 14-day average since Oct. 19, but they are lower than in the first months of the pandemic, as doctors understand better how to treat the disease.

World-wide, nearly 57 million people have been infected and more than 1.36 million have died.

-----------------------------------------

Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.) said Friday he tested positive for Covid-19, one of several members of Congress to test positive for the virus this week. The senator said a test he took on Tuesday came back positive Friday.

Earlier in the week, 87-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), the longest-serving Republican in the chamber, said he had tested positive for Covid-19. The absence of the two senators caused a procedural vote to confirm Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve’s board of governors to fail.

In recent days, Reps. Cheri Bustos (D., Ill.), Doug Lamborn (R., Colo.), Dan Newhouse (R., Wash.), Ed Perlmutter (D., Colo.) and Tim Walberg (R., Mich.), all said they had tested positive for the virus, putting the total since March at more than two dozen.

------------------------------------------

The Air Force is sending 60 medical personnel to North Dakota on Saturday to help Minot, Bismarck, Fargo and Grand Forks hospitals treat Covid patients. "With hospitals projecting a surge in COVID-19 patients in the coming weeks, we’re deeply grateful to the Department of Defense and FEMA for granting our request for additional resources to help save lives and alleviate the immense pressure on North Dakota’s hospitals and long-term care facilities," Republican Governor Doug Bergum said in a statement Thursday.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6769458-Air-Force-nurses-deployed-to-North-Dakota-to-address-hospital-staffing-crunch

-------------------------------------

The Pentagon’s noted conspiracy theorist of an interim policy chief tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, Defense Department spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said in a statement. And that means Anthony Tata, who is officially “Performing the Duties of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy,” will now “isolate at home for the next 14 days in accordance with Center for Disease Control protocols,” Hoffman said.

https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2422091/statement-by-chief-pentagon-spokesperson-jonathan-rath-hoffman-on-lithuanian-de/

https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1329613999583989763

-------------------------------------------

... and on other 'cruise ships' ...

------------------------------------------

U.S. Coast Guard cutter Stratton returned to its base in California after 11 of its 133 crew members tested positive for Covid while deployed.Stratton left Coast Guard Base Alameda, California, on Oct. 28 on what was supposed to have been a roughly seven-week patrol in the Eastern Pacific,” NBC News Courtney Kube reported. “Two weeks later, on Nov. 11 and Nov. 12, several crew members began to develop symptoms.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9908 on: November 20, 2020, 06:20:38 PM »
Dogmatic People Seek Less Information Even When Uncertain
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-dogmatic-people-uncertain.html

People who are dogmatic about their views seek less information and make less accurate judgements as a result, even on simple matters unrelated to politics, according to a study led by UCL and Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics researchers.

The researchers say their findings, published in PNAS, point to differences in thinking patterns that lead people to hold rigid opinions.

... "Anecdotally, it seems that dogmatic people are less interested in information that might change their mind. However, it was unclear if this is because a specific opinion is of high importance to them or if more fundamental processes are at play that transcend specific opinions."

Dogmatic people are characterized by a belief that their worldview reflects an absolute truth and are often resistant to change their mind, for example when it comes to partisan issues. This tendency can have societal impacts by polarizing political, scientific and religious debates. However, the cognitive drivers of dogmatism are still poorly understood.

... "Previous work has found that there is a close link between how confident we feel and whether or not we seek out new information. In the current study we found that this link was weaker in more dogmatic individuals."

In general, the reduced search was detrimental, with more dogmatic people being less accurate in their final judgements.

Dr. Fleming added: "It is striking that we could detect links between dogmatism about issues such as politics, and information-seeking in a simple online game. This tells us that real-world dogmatism isn't just a feature of specific groups or opinions but may be associated with more fundamental cognitive processes."

The study highlights that simply having corrective information available does not necessarily mean people will consume it.

Lion Schulz et al, Dogmatism manifests in lowered information search under uncertainty, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/11/18/2009641117
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9909 on: November 20, 2020, 06:44:59 PM »
One out of every 1280 Americans has now died of COVID. We should expect it to be at least one out of 800 Americans by the end of January.

So...much...winning...

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9910 on: November 20, 2020, 07:17:26 PM »
Taiwan (population 23 million, deaths to date 7)

Message from family friend who moved to Taiwan 3 months ago.

'We are leading "normal" lives. The kids attend school. We eat at restaurants and ride public transportation. There are protocols and NO ONE yells about masks, tracing or quarantine (we were under strict quarantine for 14 days following arrival).'

Lesson #1: If you are planning to have a pandemic, try not to have your country led by a psychopath.

Again, SH, the leader is a problem but the general public is an even bigger problem.

Too many Americans are just not mentally capable of doing what is necessary to keep this pandemic controlled.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9911 on: November 20, 2020, 09:36:52 PM »
Minnesota to Get 25 Staffed Ambulances From FEMA for Help With COVID-19 Surge
https://m.startribune.com/fema-ambulances-deployed-to-help-transfer-minn-patients/573127151/?c=n&clmob=y

Minnesota is receiving 25 staffed ambulances from the federal government to help hospitals transfer patients so medical centers are better prepared for a surge of those critically ill with COVID-19.

The state submitted the request to the Federal Emergency Management Agency after ambulance operators said the rising cases could soon exhaust their ability to transfer patients between health care facilities, according to the Minnesota Department of Health.

These "inter-facility" transports are up 493% compared with three weeks ago and are rising rapidly.

Hospitals will need more ambulances to transport patients as they try to create space for critical care patients in certain medical centers, the Health Department said in a statement to the Star Tribune.

... FEMA is providing vehicles and staff through a contract with a national ambulance service, which is scheduled to work in Minnesota for two weeks starting Friday.

Last week, more than half of 103 ambulance services surveyed said they would need state and federal help if the expected COVID-19 surge continues and gets worse.

"Many ambulance services are also experiencing staffing shortages," the Health Department said. "In many cases, COVID-19 has depleted staffing to critical levels, leaving many rural communities with a single staffed ambulance unable to make multi-hour transports and urban areas with significant delays for inter-facility transport."

... On Wednesday, the health system's Regions Hospital in St. Paul was at more than 100% of its usual capacity.

Smaller medical centers among the nine hospitals operated by HealthPartners are particularly stressed, Westgard said, because 50 to 75% of patients are sick with COVID and need more intense care than is typical. When smaller medical centers look to transfer complex patients to larger hospitals, he said, they're struggling to find open beds

But the pandemic trends are bleak.

"All the projections are that we're going to be in a dark place in two or three weeks," he said, "if people don't change their ways."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9912 on: November 21, 2020, 12:20:26 AM »
Looking at Gero's chart above, and considering hospitalizations, ICU and deaths all lag cases by one to several weeks, it would appear that these dark weeks ahead are already baked in and inescapable.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9913 on: November 21, 2020, 12:35:22 AM »
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 12:50:06 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9914 on: November 21, 2020, 12:52:53 AM »
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

This weeks infection survey estimates 665k infected people in England during the week of 8-14 November, up marginally from the previous week (654k). Considering this was the first full week of the current lockdown this is not a good sign.


The virus can spread within families for at least one 5 day generation before it runs out of potential contacts then it can take a week for symptoms to show then a few days for a test to be organised and the results to come back. So I think this is really showing that the local lockdowns prior to national lockdown were beginning to have effect. 

16444 currently in hospital and rising versus 19850 at the end of March peak indicates more action was needed.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9915 on: November 21, 2020, 01:27:08 AM »
So when do y’all think the covid crisis will recede into history the way Spanish Flu did? Next year? Or the year after that? Or the year after that? Or...
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9916 on: November 21, 2020, 01:50:10 AM »
COVID-19 Most Contagious In First 5 Days of Illness, Study Finds
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/11/covid-19-most-contagious-first-5-days-illness-study-finds

A study published yesterday in The Lancet Microbe shows that COVID-19 is most contagious in the first 5 days after symptom onset, underscoring the importance of early case identification and quarantine.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30172-5/fulltext

Led by researchers at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, the systematic review and meta-analysis included 98 studies on 7,997 patients infected with coronaviruses that cause COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-1), or Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV). Seventy-nine of the studies (81%) involved COVID-19 patients.

The duration of viral RNA shedding was, on average, 17 days in the upper respiratory tract, 14.6 days in the lower respiratory tract, 17.2 days in stool, and 16.6 days in serum. The longest times of shedding were 83 days in the upper respiratory tract, 59 in the lower respiratory tract, 35 days in stool, and 60 days in serum.

Eight studies that used respiratory samples from patients in their first week of illness successfully cultured live virus, but no live virus was found in any sample collected after 9 days after symptom onset, despite persistent high viral loads.

SARS-CoV-2 viral load peaked in the upper respiratory tract, believed to be the primary source of transmission, in the first 5 days after symptom onset. SARS-CoV-1 peaked at 10 to 14 days, and MERS-CoV peaked at 7 to 10 days, which the researchers said may be why COVID-19 spreads more quickly in the community and is more difficult to contain.

The study found no difference between viral load peaks in COVID-19 patients with and without symptoms, but indications are that asymptomatic patients clear the virus faster and therefore could be contagious for a shorter time

"Our findings are in line with contact tracing studies which suggest the majority of viral transmission events occur very early, and especially within the first 5 days after symptom onset, indicating the importance of self-isolation immediately after symptoms start," lead author Muge Cevik, MD, MSc, of the University of St. Andrews, said. "We also need to raise public awareness about the range of symptoms linked with the disease, including mild symptoms that may occur earlier on in the course of the infection than those that are more prominent like cough or fever."

-----------------------------------------



-----------------------------------------

Donald Trump Jr Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/20/donald-trump-jr-tests-positive-coronavirus

President’s eldest son, who learned of his diagnosis earlier this week, is fourth member of Trump family to contract Covid.

Trump Jr had managed to evade infection after his girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, tested positive in July.

The White House has been the scene of several outbreaks in recent months, including one linked to an event held for Amy Coney Barrett and, more recently, a White House election night party with few masks and little social distancing, after which multiple attendees tested positive.

Trump Jr told Fox News that critics of the Trump administration’s approach to the pandemic are “truly morons” and said that Covid-19 deaths in America right now are “almost nothing”.

--------------------------------------------------------

Rudy Giuliani's Son Potentially Exposed Most of Trump's Legal Team to COVID During RNC Press Conference
https://www.newsweek.com/rudy-giulianis-son-potentially-exposed-most-trumps-legal-team-covid-during-rnc-press-conference-1549139?amp=1

A campaign  lawyer for President Donald Trump said that most of his legal team may have been exposed to COVID-19.

During a conference call Friday morning, Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis said that the legal team was likely exposed—after Andrew Giuliani, Rudy Giuliani's son, tested positive for the virus on Friday, Axios reported.

One of the participants on the call said Rudy Giuliani should not attend the White House meeting because he'd surely been exposed to his son. Then Ellis, a Giuliani sidekick, said if that was the case then the entire Giuliani-affiliated legal team was probably exposed, the sources said.

https://www.axios.com/trump-giuliani-white-house-michigan-covid-abbbbcf3-e415-4d9d-8911-427be7b645b1.html

... Andrew Giuliani, a White House staffer, is thought to have exposed members of the legal team at a press conference, which featured his father, at the Republican National Committee (RNC) headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Thursday.

On Friday morning, the younger Giuliani tweeted that he was experiencing mild symptoms and following recommended protocols to prevent spreading the virus further.

Key members of the president's outside legal team were unable to attend a meeting with Michigan lawmakers because of their exposure,

"It's just a shitshow, it's a joke," said a Trump campaign adviser.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 02:37:49 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9917 on: November 21, 2020, 02:01:43 AM »
Looking at Gero's chart above, and considering hospitalizations, ICU and deaths all lag cases by one to several weeks, it would appear that these dark weeks ahead are already baked in and inescapable.

Sadly, I agree. These are going to be very depressing holidays for many American families.

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9918 on: November 21, 2020, 02:27:29 AM »
Quote from: Crandles
The virus can spread within families for at least one 5 day generation before it runs out of potential contacts   

Aye to that..   It came into one licensed house and  then another, TPTB slow on getting the N-95 and gowns to  staff. One  (or two or three) positives for staff.   One staff they did a 10 minute masked contact to get their adult child food and pick up mail (non-licensed residence - apartment).  I was put in  and no N-95 for me.  Buying groceries and preparing batches of portion controlled food.  Did a PCR after 5 days, I am positive.  I was also at non-licensed house - overnight and disinfect.  They are not testing any of the 5 individuals.  Just a 14 day isolation. Not sure if my co-workers are getting tested.   Of course they tested all individuals and staff at the higher level of license.   
    Day 6 still no fever, no aches, possibly a very  light dry cough day 5-6. Need to get the humidifier running.  Not bicycling in this drop dead gorgeous Nov weather, but I am doing 25-30 minutes light yoga.   

So if the hypothesis of mine is correct, 3 sequential asymptomatic cases, however only two are verified, about 10 days from the initial parent-child contact . Stay careful. 

morganism

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9919 on: November 21, 2020, 03:09:34 AM »
Another doctor infected with Covid-19 after Sputnik V vaccination

http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/another-doctor-infected-with-covid-19-after-sputnik-v-vaccination/

Virus was confirmed 5 days after the first jab, local health officials say it might be ‘coincidence’.

"Separately, three medics from the Altai region contracted coronavirus after Sputnik V vaccination, local healthcare officials confirmed earlier this week.

42 volunteer medics were vaccinated at the end of September.

A Covid-19 test was run on all of them 24 hours prior to the vaccination, and showed negative results.

Chief epidemiologist Irina Pereladova believes that the medics likely caught the virus within that 24 hour window between the test and the first jab.

However the regional Ministry of Health explain that the virus was caught after the vaccine was administered, and the likely reason that the medics didn’t have enough time to develop immunity before they came across Covid-19 pathogen.

A statement read:

‘Three out of 42 doctors, who were the first to be vaccinated against coronavirus, have contracted Covid19.

‘The vaccine developers have provided clarifications on this fact. Sputnik V is a two-component vaccine, with a person receiving the second jab three weeks after the first injection.

‘A person is considered vaccinated and therefore protected from coronavirus only three weeks after the second vaccination, as all during this time the immunity is getting formed.

'Likely the immunity in the sick medics who went through vaccination didn’t have time to form by the time they were exposed to Covid-19 pathogen.

‘This could be the only reason for the medics getting infected.’

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9920 on: November 21, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
Adelaide, Australia

5500 people in isolation.
Case numbers increase a little to 26.
Mask wearing required everywhere.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/covid-sa-worrying-detail-cluster-grows-with-5000-isolated-002709908.html

Melbourne
No cases for weeks, no deaths for weeks.
Masks still required but about to ease that, which is great given the weather is heating up and wearing a mask in 34C temps a few days ago is not fun so our trip out was quick.... Although masks are not required while bike riding, is not not nice having to put it on to do shopping while hot from temp and from exercise.
We will be back to normalish in the coming week.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9921 on: November 21, 2020, 06:56:40 AM »
Thanks for sharing, longwalks. I hope you clear the virus soon.

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9922 on: November 21, 2020, 07:21:17 AM »
Re:  It came into one licensed house and  then another

what's a "licensed house" ?

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9923 on: November 21, 2020, 07:39:33 AM »
Looking at Gero's chart above, and considering hospitalizations, ICU and deaths all lag cases by one to several weeks, it would appear that these dark weeks ahead are already baked in and inescapable.

Indeed. This is likely the worst of this virus and there is not much that can be done now. It's too late. Then, the vaccine will solve the problem but that won't save those many thousands who will perish in the next few weeks

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9924 on: November 21, 2020, 08:58:08 AM »
Hospitals Know What’s Coming
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/617156/

“We are on an absolutely catastrophic path,” said a COVID-19 doctor at America’s best-prepared hospital.

Perhaps no hospital in the United States was better prepared for a pandemic than the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha.

After the SARS outbreak of 2003, its staff began specifically preparing for emerging infections. The center has the nation’s only federal quarantine facility and its largest biocontainment unit, which cared for airlifted Ebola patients in 2014. The people on staff had detailed pandemic plans. They ran drills. ... There’s a reason many of the Americans who were airlifted from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in February were sent to UNMC.

In the past two weeks, the hospital had to convert an entire building into a COVID-19 tower, from the top down. It now has 10 COVID-19 units, each taking up an entire hospital floor. Three of the units provide intensive care to the very sickest people, several of whom die every day. One unit solely provides “comfort care” to COVID-19 patients who are certain to die. “We’ve never had to do anything like this,” Angela Hewlett, the infectious-disease specialist who directs the hospital’s COVID-19 team, told me. “We are on an absolutely catastrophic path.”

To hear such talk from someone at UNMC, the best-prepared of America’s hospitals, should shake the entire nation. ...

UNMC is fuller with COVID-19 patients—and patients, full stop—than it has ever been. “We’re watching a system breaking in front of us and we’re helpless to stop it,” says Kelly Cawcutt, an infectious-disease and critical-care physician.

Cawcutt knows what’s coming. Throughout the pandemic, hospitalizations have lagged behind cases by about 12 days. Over the past 12 days, the total number of confirmed cases in Nebraska has risen from 82,400 to 109,280. That rise represents a wave of patients that will slam into already beleaguered hospitals between now and Thanksgiving. ... “the assumption we will always have a hospital bed for them is a false one.” ...

...  When UNMC finally hits its capacity ceiling, people with COVID-19 will die not just because of the virus, but because the hospital will have nowhere to put them and no one to help them.  Empty hospital beds might as well be hotel beds without doctors and nurses to staff them.

... Doctors will have to choose whether to abandon entire groups of patients who can’t get help elsewhere.

... COVID-19 works slowly. It takes several days for infected people to show symptoms, a dozen more for newly diagnosed cases to wend their way to hospitals, and even more for the sickest of patients to die. These lags mean that the pandemic’s near-term future is always set, baked in by the choices of the past. It means that Gov. Ricketts is already too late to stop whatever UNMC will face in the coming weeks (but not too late to spare the hospital further grief next month). It means that some of the people who get infected over Thanksgiving will struggle to enter packed hospitals by the middle of December, and be in the ground by Christmas. ...

--------------------------------------

1,000 U.S. Hospitals Are 'Critically' Short On Staff — And More Expect To Be Soon
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/20/937152062/1-000-u-s-hospitals-are-short-on-staff-and-more-expect-to-be-soon

More than 1,000 hospitals across the United States are "critically" short on staff, according to numbers released this week by the Department of Health and Human Services.

Those hospitals, which span all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico, represent about 18% of all hospitals that report their staffing status to HHS. And that number is expected to grow: 21% of all hospitals reporting say they anticipate having critical staffing shortages in the next week.

The worst-hit state is North Dakota with 51% of hospitals that reported saying they're facing shortages; seven states say over 30% of their hospitals are in trouble.

While the data is a welcome addition to the arsenal of information that public health officials have to fight COVID-19, it highlights the shortcomings of what the federal government has made available to the public. Though the government has precise daily figures for COVID-19 hospitalizations at thousands of the country's hospitals, it shares only a small subset of this information to people outside government.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/30/929239481/internal-documents-reveal-covid-19-hospitalization-data-the-government-keeps-hid

Looking ahead toward the next week, additional hospitals report expecting staffing shortages in 40 states, as well as Puerto Rico. Nebraska, Virginia and Missouri top the list in places that are expected to have the biggest upticks. ...

State List at link ...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/20/937152062/1-000-u-s-hospitals-are-short-on-staff-and-more-expect-to-be-soon

---------------------------------------

Gene Experts Claim They Identified Human Genes That Can Protect Against Covid-19
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/20/crispr-scientists-claim-identified-genes-that-protect-against-covid.html

A team of CRISPR scientists at the New York Genome Center, New York University and Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai say they have identified the genes that can protect human cells against Covid-19.

Leading virologist at Mount Sinai, Dr. Benjamin tenOever, developed a series of human lung cell models for coronavirus screening to better understand immune responses to the disease and co-authored the study.

The goal was two-fold: to identify the genes that make human cells more resistant to SARS-CoV-2 virus; and test existing drugs on the market that may help stop the spread of the disease.

... After intensive research the scientists and doctors claim they have found 30 genes that block the virus from infecting human cells including RAB7A, a gene that seems to regulate the ACE-2 receptor that the virus binds to and uses to enter the cell.

The team discovered that the top-ranked genes — those whose loss reduces viral infection substantially — clustered into a handful of protein complexes, including vacuolar ATPases, Retromer, Commander, Arp2/3, and PI3K. Many of these protein complexes are involved in trafficking proteins to and from the cell membrane.

The research team also identified drugs that are currently on the market for different diseases that they claim block the entry of Covid-19 into human cells by increasing cellular cholesterol. In particular, they found three drugs currently on the market were more than 100-fold more effective in stopping viral entry in human lung cells: ...

---------------------------------------

Most Coronavirus Cases are Spread by People Without Symptoms, CDC Now Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic-website-wellness/index.html

... "CDC and others estimate that more than 50% of all infections are transmitted from people who are not exhibiting symptoms," it added in the guidance posted Friday.

"This means at least half of new infections come from people likely unaware they are infectious to others."

According to the CDC, 24% of people who transmit the virus to others never develop symptoms and another 35% were pre-symptomatic. It also said 41% infected others while experiencing symptoms.

Peak infectiousness comes five days after infection, the agency said on the website. "With these assumptions, 59% of infections would be transmitted when no symptoms are present but could range (from) 51%-70% if the fraction of asymptomatic infections were 24%-30% and peak infectiousness ranged 4-6 days."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

The CDC said studies have shown 40-45% of infected people never develop symptoms.

"Among people who do develop symptomatic illness, transmission risk peaks in the days just before symptom onset (presymptomatic infection) and for a few days thereafter."

"Accordingly, the number of infections transmitted peaks when virus levels peak," the agency noted.

So, people are spreading the virus when they have no idea they are infected.

Masks can prevent this spread.

-----------------------------------------------

Ben Carson Says He Was 'Desperately Ill' With The Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/20/937170338/ben-carson-says-he-was-desperately-ill-with-the-coronavirus

Ben Carson, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, took to Facebook on Friday to report he has been "extremely sick" with the coronavirus.

Carson said his initial symptoms were light, but then he became "desperately ill," and noted that he has "several co-morbidities" that played a role.

"President Trump was following my condition and cleared me for the monoclonal antibody therapy that he had previously received, which I am convinced saved my life," Carson wrote. He said he is now "out of the woods."

-------------------------------------------

German Doctor Arrested On Suspicion of Killing Coronavirus Patients
https://m.dw.com/en/german-doctor-arrested-on-suspicion-of-killing-coronavirus-patients/a-55682819

A German doctor is facing manslaughter charges over two deaths, reportedly of COVID-19 patients. Police cited him as giving medication to hasten the death of one patient and to "avert further suffering."

The senior doctor, 44, employed since February at the University Hospital in Essen city in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), was arrested on Wednesday, charged with manslaughter on Thursday and remained in custody, city police said.
Two patients, aged 47 and 50, were terminally ill with COVID-19 when a senior doctor allegedly administered medication that led to their immediate deaths, police said Friday.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 09:15:59 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9925 on: November 21, 2020, 10:15:19 AM »
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

This weeks infection survey estimates 665k infected people in England during the week of 8-14 November, up marginally from the previous week (654k). Considering this was the first full week of the current lockdown this is not a good sign.


The virus can spread within families for at least one 5 day generation before it runs out of potential contacts then it can take a week for symptoms to show then a few days for a test to be organised and the results to come back. So I think this is really showing that the local lockdowns prior to national lockdown were beginning to have effect. 

16444 currently in hospital and rising versus 19850 at the end of March peak indicates more action was needed.

That extra 5 days is essentially over by the time of the infection survey.

Tier 3 is clearly dropping, but nearly flat overall is a combination of drops in Tier 3 and increases everywhere else.

There's about an extra couple of days of good data in the testing of symptomatics beyond the infection survey period now, and its only really London that now stands out as continuing to rise so it would be surprising if there wasn't a definite drop in the next survey. https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1329843506802724864/photo/1

The age range data shows that infection is still spreading in schools, but rates have turned in other age ranges. The October peak in 10-19 year olds was all about freshers, but the rise in November is teens at school who are now almost as infected as the university age cohorts. https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1329843501559934982/photo/1
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936672/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_w47.pdf

James' simple model and the MRC complex version tell the same story, R has definitely dropped to close to 1, but its only the areas that were Tier 3 before lockdown (the NW) that its definitely gone below 1. 16 days from lockdown and James has 0.97 (0.84-1.11) and if R had gone well below 1 as a result of lockdown that should be showing in his model by now. https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1329839861650649089/photo/2
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9926 on: November 21, 2020, 01:23:15 PM »
Looking at Gero's chart above, and considering hospitalizations, ICU and deaths all lag cases by one to several weeks, it would appear that these dark weeks ahead are already baked in and inescapable.

Indeed. This is likely the worst of this virus and there is not much that can be done now. It's too late. Then, the vaccine will solve the problem but that won't save those many thousands who will perish in the next few weeks

...that won't save those many tens of thousands who will perish in the next few weeks months...


a friendly edit...we could be at 3000 deaths per day by late December...won't fall below 1000 per day until February at the earliest...our only real hope is that the tens of thousands dying across the country (not just in Democratic cities) are providing a horrific yet necessary lesson to rural Americans who have been listening to our President for too long.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 01:29:55 PM by Shared Humanity »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9927 on: November 21, 2020, 01:29:12 PM »
Quote
a friendly edit...we could be at 3000 deaths per day by late December...won't fall below 1000 per day until February at the earliest...
Why then, SH? Biden in power? Herd immunity? Passage of winter?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9928 on: November 21, 2020, 01:31:51 PM »
Quote
a friendly edit...we could be at 3000 deaths per day by late December...won't fall below 1000 per day until February at the earliest...
Why then, SH? Biden in power? Herd immunity? Passage of winter?

...the cruel teacher that is mass death and the destruction that lies in its wake...I have maintained for a long time that Mom has to die (or Dad) in large numbers in rural America before the Republican base wakes up from the hypnotic state or slumber that has been induced by the charlatans that lead their party...

...there is, of course, the disturbing possibility that the Republican base hates their parents...it certainly cannot be they want to get their hands on the inheritance which consists, in most cases, of a broken down pickup truck and that used washing machine...
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 01:40:49 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9929 on: November 21, 2020, 03:19:20 PM »
Hospitals Know What’s Coming
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/617156/

“We are on an absolutely catastrophic path,” said a COVID-19 doctor at America’s best-prepared hospital.


And this link to an article that gives a clear, if personally upsetting, picture of conditions on the ground has been posted by someone who has been described by another frequent commenter as a "useful idiot".

I would like to thank you for your postings. It has actually become my best source of "on the ground" news and recent research. I read everything you post on this thread and am better informed as a result.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9930 on: November 21, 2020, 05:00:28 PM »
Cases and hospitalizations curves are bending nationwide in Spain, which is great. In some places like Madrid, the bending has not required lockdowns or major disruptions beyond the usual measures, showing that perhaps a certain level of herd immunity has been reached and is helping. In many other places, lockdowns have forced the bending of the curve, and especially those places are still vulnerable to big waves pre-vaccination. Everybody should be very careful these Holidays and I hope authorities squash any intent of social celebration that goes beyond family dinners.
Below official numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and COVID hospitalization % per region.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9931 on: November 21, 2020, 05:11:01 PM »

I would like to thank you for your postings. It has actually become my best source of "on the ground" news and recent research. I read everything you post on this thread and am better informed as a result.

I second that

thank you vox

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9932 on: November 21, 2020, 05:20:54 PM »
WHO Tells Doctors Not to Use Gilead's Remdesivir as a Coronavirus Treatment, Splitting With FDA
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/b-wgd111920.php
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/19/coronavirus-who-tells-doctors-dont-use-gileads-remdesivir-splitting-with-fda.html

A World Health Organization panel advised doctors Thursday against using Gilead Sciences' antiviral drug remdesivir as a treatment for patients hospitalized with Covid-19, saying there is currently "no evidence" that it improves survival or shortens recovery time — standing in stark contrast to U.S. regulatory guidance on the drug.

The WHO Guideline Development Group, a panel of international experts who provide advice to the agency, said its recommendation is based on new data comparing the effects of several drug treatments, including data from four international randomized trials involving more than 7,000 patients hospitalized with the disease.

"After thoroughly reviewing this evidence, the WHO GDG expert panel, which includes experts from around the world including four patients who have had covid-19, concluded that remdesivir has no meaningful effect on mortality or on other important outcomes for patients, such as the need for mechanical ventilation or time to clinical improvement," the group wrote in a press release.

The recommendation was published in the British medical trade journal The BMJ on Friday in the U.K.

... Some medical experts note data on the drug's effectiveness has been mixed. In October, a study coordinated by the WHO indicated that the medication had "little or no effect" on death rates among hospitalized patients. The study was conducted in 405 hospitals across 30 countries on 11,266 patients, with 2,750 given remdesivir.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/who-remdesivir-has-little-or-no-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-deaths.html

It was clear for a long time that that medicine was a placebo with secondary effects to extract dollars to insurance-enhanced COVID patients from the US market. Doctors in Europe and other world regions do not generally use that super expensive crap ( they other inexpensive antivirals that work better but have been discredited by big Money via fraudulent studies in the Lancet for instance).

Unusual this coming from the weak-o WHO. Keep it coming!

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9933 on: November 21, 2020, 05:21:35 PM »
I too would like to thank vox_mundi. If not for him, I would have to do the work of posting links to this thread I started. I have enough work just doing that for the economic consequences of covid thread.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9934 on: November 21, 2020, 07:28:54 PM »
Thank you, SH and all. Their are some other voices I miss. I wish we could hear from them again: Terry, Sam, blumenkraft and others brought many insights from their corner of the planet.

Let's hope they are well.

"This too shall pass" ...  این نیز بگذرد
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 07:49:00 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9935 on: November 21, 2020, 07:32:04 PM »
elsewhere ...

----------------------------------------------

Steady Work: El Paso County Seeks Workers to Move 200-Plus Bodies at Morgue, Trailers
https://www.ktsm.com/local/el-paso-news/el-paso-county-medical-examiners-office-seeking-to-hire-morgue-attendants-immediately/amp/

There is a gruesome sign of the times in El Paso, Texas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1327836536424042498?s=20

El Paso County put out a call Thursday night for the immediate hiring of morgue attendants to help with the growing number of COVID-19 dead

...The morgue attendants are needed immediately and will work at the Medical Examiner’s Office. The County is seeking to hire enough staff to rotate assignments and shifts throughout the week and weekend as the County is bracing for an increase in COVID deaths.

Morgue attendants will be provided with maximum PPE, and will receive a COVID-19 test before starting. Morgue attendants are tasked with physically moving those who have died of complications related to COVID-19 infections. Applicants must be able to lift between 100 pounds to 400 lbs., with assistance. The position pay between $15 to $27 per hour.


On Thursday, the El Paso County Medical Examiner’s Office had 247 bodies at the morgue and inside nine refrigerated trailers serving as mobile morgues, El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said in news release. The number is growing by10-20 bodies each day.



https://mobile.twitter.com/KeenanKFOX_CBS/status/1329889939979448321
Many hands; light work

In Oregon, mobile morgues are now in place along with new surge tents. In that state, they're setting daily records not just for COVID-19 cases but also for hospitalizations and deaths.

-----------------------------------------

Troops with the Texas National Guard have been deployed to El Paso to help with the morgue crisis, according to the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

“After completing an assessment of the situation on the ground in El Paso County this week, the state has mobilized a team of 36 Texas National Guard personnel to provide mortuary affairs support beginning at 0900 tomorrow," said a spokesperson with TDEM.

..."As we've seen a rapid increase in cases and hospitalizations, we are unfortunately also seeing a spike in deaths. We have been working closely with funeral homes and mortuaries to assist with increased capacity and coordination of resources,” said Mayor Dee Margo. “The Texas Military will provide us with the critical personnel to carry out our fatality management plan and we are very grateful to them for their ongoing support."

The City of El Paso in partnership with the County of El Paso has secured a central morgue location to further support the Medical Examiner’s Office, funeral homes and mortuaries with additional capacity.

https://kfoxtv.com/amp/news/local/texas-national-guard-deployed-to-el-paso-to-help-with-morgue-crisis
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 01:55:59 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9936 on: November 21, 2020, 08:54:15 PM »
Why We're Numb to 250,000 Coronavirus Deaths
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-death-toll-psychological-reaction-f5aab275-1c93-444e-9914-5b0bf8fe07d9.html

The U.S. passed 250,000 confirmed deaths from COVID-19 this week, a figure that is truly vast — too vast, perhaps, for us to comprehend.

Why it matters: The psychic numbing that sets in around mass death saps us of our empathy for victims and discourages us from making the sacrifices needed to control the pandemic, while it hampers our ability to prepare for other rare but potentially catastrophic risks down the road.

... Even if we try our best to grasp mass death, we inevitably come up against cognitive biases, says Paul Slovic, a psychologist at the University of Oregon who studies human judgment and decision-making.

The biggest bias is scope neglect: as the scale of deaths and tragedy grows, our own compassion and concern fail to keep pace. As the title of one of Slovic's papers on the subject goes: "The more who die, the less we care."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283318445_The_More_Who_Die_the_Less_We_Care_Psychic_Numbing_and_Genocide

It doesn't help that for most of us — save bereaved family members and health care workers on the front line — those deaths go unseen, hidden behind the walls of hospitals and funeral homes.

... Combined with the habituation to trauma that has set in after months of the pandemic, it shouldn't be surprising that most of us are doing much less to fight the spread of COVID-19 now than we were in the spring, when the number of sick and dead were far lower.

How it works: In a study following the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which 800,000 people were killed in a matter of months, Slovic and his colleagues asked a group of volunteers to imagine they were in charge of a refugee camp.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227004861_Insensitivity_to_the_Value_of_Human_Life_A_Study_of_Psychophysical_Numbing

They had to decide whether or not to help 4,500 refugees get access to clean water. Half were told the camp held 250,000 refugees, and half were told it held 11,000.

The study subjects were much more willing to help if they thought they were assisting 4,500 people out of 11,000, and less willing if it was 4,500 out of 250,000 people. They were reacting to the proportion of those who would be helped, while neglecting the scope of the raw number.

Relatedly, in a 2014 study, Slovic found a decrease in empathy and a consequent drop in donations to save sick children as the number of victims rose, with effects being seen as soon as one child became two.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0100115

What to watch: These same cognitive biases make it difficult for us to fully appreciate chronic threats like climate change, or to prepare for rare but catastrophic risks in the future — like a pandemic.

Given how hardwired these biases are, our best bet is to try to steer into them, and keep in mind that each of these 250,000 deaths tells an individual story.

As the survivor Abel Herzberg said of the Holocaust: "There were not six million Jews murdered; there was one murder, six million times."

The bottom line:
As the death toll rises, it will take willful effort not to become numb to what's happening. But it is an effort that must be made
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9937 on: November 21, 2020, 09:41:02 PM »


Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #355 on: December 31, 2019, 04:43:15 PM »
China Investigates SARS-like Virus as Dozens Struck by Pneumonia
https://dw.com/en/china-investigates-sars-like-virus-as-dozens-struck-by-pneumonia/a-51843861

Chinese health authorities on Tuesday said they are investigating 27 cases of viral pneumonia in central Hubei province, amid online speculation that it could be linked to the SARS flu-like virus that killed hundreds of people a decade ago.

Wuhan health officials issued an emergency notification on Monday after local hospitals treated a "successive series of patients with unexplained pneumonia."

Of the 27 reported cases, seven are in a critical condition and 18 are stable, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said on Tuesday on its Weibo social media account. ...

A 2003 outbreak of the highly-contagious SARS virus was covered up and killed hundreds of people.

--------------------------

We are approaching an anniversary. It has been quite the ride.
I think it does seem like people are letting their guard down and n-95 quality masks are by far a minority of PPE worn.
I think we will have a blog running  a year from now, I hope Voxmundi stays healthy and spiritually up to the task.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9938 on: November 21, 2020, 11:12:46 PM »
I was researching predictions for the Twenties when I read that post. The predictions were still being posted and they were already obsolete.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9939 on: November 22, 2020, 12:27:07 AM »
Trump Skips G20 Pandemic Event to Visit Golf Club as Virus Ravages US
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/21/trump-does-not-attend-g-20-event-on-global-pandemic-preparedness.html

198,500 new US cases reported in 24-hour period as president skips event focused on ‘coordinated response’ to Covid


President Donald Trump waves as he plays golf at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va., Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020.

President Donald Trump on Saturday did not participate in a virtual G-20 session on global response efforts to the coronavirus and improved pandemic preparedness, even as Covid-19 cases surge and break daily records in the U.S.

Major leaders among the world's 20 largest economies delivered video messages for the virtual session on pandemic preparedness, including the leaders of Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy and South Korea. Trump did not deliver a message for the event, and there did not appear to be any American presence in the session.

Trump, who lost the Nov. 3 election but did not concede, hasn't attended a White House coronavirus task force meeting in several months and hasn't answered questions from the press about the pandemic.

The president later went to his golf course, Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, where he's spent the last several weekends since losing the presidential election.


... he should have quit when he was ahead ...

Trump Golf Count = 287
Cost to Taxpayers = $142,000,000
Cost to Citizens = >250,000 lives

https://trumpgolfcount.com/
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 02:47:29 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9940 on: November 22, 2020, 01:20:25 PM »
WHO Tells Doctors Not to Use Gilead's Remdesivir as a Coronavirus Treatment, Splitting With FDA
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/b-wgd111920.php
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/19/coronavirus-who-tells-doctors-dont-use-gileads-remdesivir-splitting-with-fda.html

A World Health Organization panel advised doctors Thursday against using Gilead Sciences' antiviral drug remdesivir as a treatment for patients hospitalized with Covid-19, saying there is currently "no evidence" that it improves survival or shortens recovery time — standing in stark contrast to U.S. regulatory guidance on the drug.

The WHO Guideline Development Group, a panel of international experts who provide advice to the agency, said its recommendation is based on new data comparing the effects of several drug treatments, including data from four international randomized trials involving more than 7,000 patients hospitalized with the disease.

"After thoroughly reviewing this evidence, the WHO GDG expert panel, which includes experts from around the world including four patients who have had covid-19, concluded that remdesivir has no meaningful effect on mortality or on other important outcomes for patients, such as the need for mechanical ventilation or time to clinical improvement," the group wrote in a press release.

The recommendation was published in the British medical trade journal The BMJ on Friday in the U.K.

... Some medical experts note data on the drug's effectiveness has been mixed. In October, a study coordinated by the WHO indicated that the medication had "little or no effect" on death rates among hospitalized patients. The study was conducted in 405 hospitals across 30 countries on 11,266 patients, with 2,750 given remdesivir.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/who-remdesivir-has-little-or-no-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-deaths.html

It was clear for a long time that that medicine was a placebo with secondary effects to extract dollars to insurance-enhanced COVID patients from the US market. Doctors in Europe and other world regions do not generally use that super expensive crap ( they other inexpensive antivirals that work better but have been discredited by big Money via fraudulent studies in the Lancet for instance).

Unusual this coming from the weak-o WHO. Keep it coming!

A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that remdesivir reduced recovery time and deaths by one-third, while patients had fewer side effects.  Not a miracle drug, but certainly effective. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9941 on: November 22, 2020, 06:22:23 PM »
Illinois Has Worst COVID-19 Week In Months as Deaths, Hospitalizations Continue Rise
https://abcnews.go.com/US/illinois-worst-covid-19-week-months-deaths-hospitalizations/story?id=74339291

Illinois reported over 100 COVID-19 deaths for the fourth day in a row and over 6,000 remain hospitalized for a third straight day on Saturday, adding up to its worst week during the pandemic since the spring.

The Illinois Department of Public Health reported 127 new deaths from the virus on Saturday, for the state's deadliest week in six months. Since Nov. 15, more than 760 in Illinois have died from COVID-19, for a total of 11,430 since the start of the pandemic, state data shows.

There are a record 6,175 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 as reported on Saturday. Hospitalizations have been on a record-breaking streak since Nov. 11, when they surpassed a late-April peak, and have more than doubled in the past four weeks, data from The COVID Tracking Project shows.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/illinois#summary-charts

"Now these aren't just numbers. They're not just statistics. These are real people with real lives and real futures that have been stolen by this virus," said Tina Rubin, the mother of Danielle Kater, a 30-year-old Bloomington woman who died of COVID-19 earlier this month.

"This is a traumatizing, mass-casualty experience for all of us," Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of the Illinois Department of Public Health said.

COVID-19 cases are especially on the rise in the state's long-term care facilities. There were over 3,500 new cases reported this week -- the largest weekly increase since a peak in May, according to an analysis by the Chicago Tribune.

Ezike pointed to the rise in community spread as contributing to the jump in the facilities.

"If our communities are not safe, nowhere can be safe," Ezike said.

-----------------------------------

St. Louis Hospitals Say State's Capacity Data Leads to 'Misunderstanding,' as They Report Their Own
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news/2020/11/19/hospitals-say-states-capacity-data-is-misleading.html

It's been cited on social media in recent days: Data from the state of Missouri showing that a large number of hospital beds remain unused, even as Covid-19 cases surge.

But the state data can lead to "misunderstanding on the part of some and a dangerous message to the community," said Stephanie Zoller Mueller, a spokeswoman for the St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force, a consortium of BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health and St. Luke's Hospital, the region's largest health systems.

... As of Tuesday, for example, the state reported that overall remaining inpatient bed capacity stood at 35%. ICU bed remaining capacity was 29%. The state said it uses data from Trump's HHS COVID-19 contractor, TeleTracking, a Pittsburgh data firm, and the National Healthcare Safety Network, an internet surveillance system managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://showmestrong.mo.gov/public-healthcare/

By contrast, Zoller Mueller said as of Wednesday hospitals covered by the task force were at 84% capacity overall. The ICUs stood at 90% capacity, she said, adding that the numbers represent averages, with some systems and hospitals doing better than others. The task force on Wednesday also reported that hospitalizations continue to increase, with the seven-day moving average of hospital admissions rising from 124 to 125. Inpatient confirmed Covid-positive hospitalizations rose from 838 to 841, a record.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid19-latest-st-louis-area-task-force/63-6afd5d35-be9a-4807-8b7a-e58ad06ddbcd

The difference in the data comes down to how it's being reported: The state reports all beds licensed to hospitals, the St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force looks at staffed beds, Zoller Mueller said.

"We only have so much staff and cannot staff the number of 'licensed' beds the state assigns us," Zoller Mueller said. "And we can't staff them with just anyone; Covid patients need a highly skilled level of care that not all nurses are trained to offer."

... Local hospitals have been at odds with Missouri Gov. Parson (R) over his refusal to issue a statewide mask mandate. The task force's leader, Dr. Alex Garza, last week also called for a statewide "safer at home" order.

--------------------------------------

St. Louis Children's Hospital Is Now Seeing Adult Patients With COVID-19
https://news.stlpublicradio.org/coronavirus/2020-11-20/st-louis-childrens-hospital-now-seeing-adult-patients-with-covid-19-trauma-surgeon-reports

St. Louis Children’s Hospital is now treating adult patients with the coronavirus.

The hospital began admitting adult patients over a week ago in an attempt to relieve doctors at Barnes-Jewish Hospital, a hospital spokesperson confirmed Friday afternoon. Intensive care units at Barnes-Jewish and other area hospitals are nearing capacity. Children’s Hospital is treating adults in both its emergency room and ICU.

Doctors at the hospital now must juggle treating adult patients and keeping up with normal care for kids. The hospital is admitting more children weekly with the coronavirus than since the pandemic began.

This past week, 11 children were admitted to Children’s Hospital for the coronavirus, according to Emergency Medicine Physician Dr. Katelyn Spectorsky. While the hundreds of adults admitted over the last week at area hospitals dwarfs the number of new child patients, Spectorsky said it is concerning that healthy kids who have been considered low-risk for developing severe cases of the COVID-19 are coming to the hospital.

... While intensive care units in most hospitals in the region’s four largest health systems are at around 90% capacity, some units are completely full, Dr. Alex Garza, head of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force, said Friday.

... BJC HealthCare facilities have started putting into place crisis care plans (triage), said Dr. Clay Dunagan, chief clinical officer at BJC, which includes St. Louis Children’s Hospital and Barnes-Jewish Hospital.

Already, BJC hospitals are placing multiple ICU patients in single rooms, he said.

“We’ll soon be converting anesthesia recovery spaces, operating rooms, cath labs and equipping them to function as ICU capable,” he said. Of course that means they can’t be used for other functions, we compromise care in other part. ... We are beginning to convert rooms to function differently than they were designed.”

----------------------------------------

Michigan Hospital Employees Exposed to COVID-19 Told to Come to Work If Asymptomatic
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/michigan-hospital-employees-exposed-to-covid-19-told-to-come-to-work-if-asymptomatic.html

Several Michigan health systems have told employees that if they had close or household contact with someone who has COVID-19, they are still expected to report to work until they get their test results, according to the Detroit Free Press.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/health/2020/11/21/covid-19-exposed-michigan-hospital-workers-still-work/6361870002/

Michigan Medicine, Beaumont Health, Munson Healthcare and other systems have enacted this policy for exposed employees who are asymptomatic.

The systems say the policy is necessary to avoid staffing shortages.

Systems say COVID-19 test results turn around within 24 to 48 hours, but those results can take up to five days in areas where testing shortages are causing delays, including at Munson Healthcare. Munson has instructed employees to report for work even if "asked to quarantine by your local health department," as long as they have no symptoms and are awaiting test results.

... At Henry Ford Health System in Detroit,  169 of 900 employees tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week, according to a system media briefing Nov. 20.

--------------------------------------------

Moore Teacher Fighting COVID-19 in Hospital After Waiting a Day for an ICU Bed
https://kfor.com/news/coronavirus/moore-teacher-fighting-covid-19-in-hospital-after-waiting-a-day-for-an-icu-bed/

A day is a long time if you can't breathe and need oxygen.

... Oklahoma hospitals have been maxed out for weeks now, hovering around a 6 percent vacancy rate.

Friday night, only 53 beds are open across the entire state.

“The pipeline of new cases into the hospitals are bigger than people are getting to go home,” OU’s Chief COVID-19 Officer Dr. Dale Bratzler said.

... Dr. Scott Michener, chief medical officer of Comanche County Memorial Hospital in Lawton, Oklahoma, said they've begun to repurpose equipment that isn't even inside the hospital.

"Last week we had a day when we had to pull a ventilator out of an ambulance and have someone on [a] transport ventilator,"
said Michener.

Michener says his hospital has gone beyond full capacity and that none of the other hospitals nearby are able to help, either.

"There's nowhere to go ... nothing [health care professionals] can do. [I'm] not sleeping well these days," he said, his protective goggles fogging up from tears of frustration and exhaustion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/hospitals-across-us-lack-beds-or-equipment-to-treat-covid-19-patients/ar-BB1b7ptn

... Dr. Phillipson works directly with COVID-19 patients he said once you are put on a ventilator you have 1 in 3 chance of surviving and going home.

They have seen young patients coming and having conversations, then less than 48 hours later they are dead.

... Hospital officals say it is up to the community to act like front line workers to help stop the spread of COVID-19.

---------------------------------

As of Nov. 18, hospitals in Spartanburg, SC were at 95.8% occupancy with 550 out of 574 beds occupied according to South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control.

----------------------------------
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 06:32:58 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9942 on: November 22, 2020, 11:59:15 PM »
The US has a hospital system on the verge of collapse, people are going hungry there, political leaders ignoring the problem and far too many people still think this is just a flu.

In Egypt, revolution was sparked by increasing bread prices that caused hunger...... the US is not special, if they refuse to deal with the virus and the consequences, don't be surprised to see the country self destruct within six months.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9943 on: November 23, 2020, 12:27:36 AM »
^ ... add 393 million firearms, 20-30 billion rounds of ammunition, 80 million very angry people and 74 million very misinformed people and ...

« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 12:33:29 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9944 on: November 23, 2020, 12:32:51 AM »
US Approves Regeneron Antibody Treatment Given to Trump
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-regeneron-antibody-treatment-trump.html

The green light for drugmaker Regeneron came after REGEN-COV2, a combination of two lab-made antibodies, was shown to reduce COVID-19-related hospitalizations or emergency room visits in patients with underlying conditions.

The FDA said the data supporting Regeneron's EUA came from a clinical trial in 799 non-hospitalized patients with mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19.

For patients who were at high risk because of a variety of underlying conditions—from obesity to old age to diabetes—hospitalization and emergency room visits occurred in three percent of patients who received the intravenous treatment.

This compared to nine percent in placebo-treated patients.

Patients treated with the drug also had lower levels of virus remaining compared to those on the placebo.

The company said it expects to have doses ready for 80,000 patients ready by the end of November and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January 2021.

These will be available to US patients at no out-of-pocket cost under the terms of a US government program.

But with cases surging across the US and globally, that means access will not be widespread. The US has added more than 360,000 new COVID-19 cases in the past two days alone.

Regeneron has received more than $450 million from the US government for its COVID-19 drug development efforts under Operation Warp Speed.

Regeneron, which is based in Tarrytown, is run by two billionaires: CEO Leonard Schleifer and chief scientific officer George Yancopoulos

Schleifer is a member of Trump National golf club in Briarcliff Manor, New York

----------------------------------------

Bioethicists Worry the Rich and Powerful Will Get Special Access to Experimental Covid Treatments
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/12/coronavirus-bioethicists-worry-the-rich-and-powerful-will-get-special-access-to-experimental-treatments-.html

Ask Trump ally, Chris Christie ...

------------------------------------------

Ben Carson Confirms Trump’s Friends Get Better Coronavirus Treatments Than Regular Citizens
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-health-ben-carson-coronavirus-pandemic-0de7a6146af55ffbb43bd85d3a7039b2
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/ben-carson-trump-cleared-experimental-coronavirus.amp

... Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon who is also a member of the coronavirus task force, wrote a Facebook post in which he said he was “extremely sick” and revealed his wife also contracted the virus. He said he saw “dramatic improvement” after taking a botanical treatment derived from the oleander plant, which has not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Trump has spoken favorably of the unproven treatment before. There is no medical evidence that the treatments Carson cited worked.

His symptoms later worsened and Trump, who had been following his condition closely, “cleared me for the monoclonal antibody therapy that he had previously received, which I am convinced saved my life.”

The White House declined comment Saturday, instead referring questions about possible intervention into Carson’s medical care by Trump to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. HUD also declined to comment.

“I do believe I am out of the woods at this point,” said the secretary, who gave credit to Trump, the White House medical team and doctors at the Walter Reed military hospital.

In his statement, Carson acknowledged having access to a level of medical care that is unavailable to most Americans.

-----------------------------------------

... just show your Mar-a-Lago or Trump Doral membership card to get your dose ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9945 on: November 23, 2020, 02:22:56 AM »
Quote
^ ... add 393 million firearms, 20-30 billion rounds of ammunition, 80 million very angry people and 74 million very misinformed people and ...
In the first week the gunfire was incessant.
After a year cases of ammo were used as money.
After a decade a box of bullets was a warlord's ransom.
After a century congregations worshipped a bullet on an altar.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Hefaistos

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9946 on: November 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM »
The Covid-19 virus had been active in Italy months before it was first officially detected, new research has found, raising further questions about the true origins, extent and actual duration of the ongoing pandemic. "This study shows an unexpected very early circulation
of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified"

The new study, conducted by scientists with Milan Institute of Cancer and the University of Siena, was published this week by the Tumori Journal. The research is based on the analysis of blood samples from 959 people, collected during lung cancer screening tests conducted between September 2019 and March 2020.

More than 11 percent of the tested – 111 people – turned out to have had coronavirus-specific antibodies. All the tested people were asymptomatic and were not showing any signs of the disease. Some 23 of the positive results date back to September 2019, suggesting that the virus was actually present in the country as early as during last summer (summer 2019) – some six months before the pandemic ‘began’ and ‘reached’ Italy.

Paper attached.(paywalled)

"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy"
by Apolone et al.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755

Expected reaction from China: it's the italians started it!

Otoh, Chinese authorities have been accused for coverups regarding the start of C19, where it actually started in China. There were 'disappearings' of whistle-blowing doctors, jailing of critical journalists, etc, so the corona might have been under the radar in China for a long time until the outbreak in Wuhan in Dec.-19
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:09:00 PM by kassy »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9947 on: November 23, 2020, 12:48:31 PM »
My guardian's wife's family in Florida has a bad outbreak, with at least one member in ICU. My guardian was in a bad area of Texas so he is in voluntary quarantine.
We are nearing the ASIF's first five figure post number, after  barely enough time to make a baby. I have noticed it is de rigueur to start a new thread at this milestone, which I will do. I will include a new, different poll (on when normalcy will return) when I do.
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9948 on: November 23, 2020, 01:18:47 PM »
The Covid-19 virus had been active in Italy months before it was first officially detected, new research has found, raising further questions about the true origins, extent and actual duration of the ongoing pandemic. "This study shows an unexpected very early circulation
of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified"

The new study, conducted by scientists with Milan Institute of Cancer and the University of Siena, was published this week by the Tumori Journal. The research is based on the analysis of blood samples from 959 people, collected during lung cancer screening tests conducted between September 2019 and March 2020.

More than 11 percent of the tested – 111 people – turned out to have had coronavirus-specific antibodies. All the tested people were asymptomatic and were not showing any signs of the disease. Some 23 of the positive results date back to September 2019, suggesting that the virus was actually present in the country as early as during last summer (summer 2019) – some six months before the pandemic ‘began’ and ‘reached’ Italy.

Paper attached.(paywalled)

"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy"
by Apolone et al.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755

Expected reaction from China: it's the italians started it!

Otoh, Chinese authorities have been accused for coverups regarding the start of C19, where it actually started in China. There were 'disappearings' of whistle-blowing doctors, jailing of critical journalists, etc, so the corona might have been under the radar in China for a long time until the outbreak in Wuhan in Dec.-19

The blame game is stupid.
I have never been a fan of assigning blame.... it is better, in my mind anyway, if the cause it found, the lesson learned, and a fix applied.
Who really cares where it started, it makes absolutely no difference to the problem and any country in the world can start a pandemic.

And assuming it started in China, a country with a huge percentage of the human population, the chances are it would begin there or India anyway.
And why does it even matter anyway?

Politics is really pissing me off lately.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:09:21 PM by kassy »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9949 on: November 23, 2020, 02:36:23 PM »
The origin of the virus is actually quite important.  Not just politically, but also in tracking the mutations of the virus, and the outward spread, etc etc etc.

The country that released this virus is also blocking access of foreign reporters, so it's very difficult to get any information on what is actually happening in China right now.



« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 02:44:49 PM by harpy »