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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 542757 times)

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10200 on: December 12, 2020, 05:27:02 PM »
In Belgium... the intention was good. It was Sinterklaas (the dutch version of Santa Claus but he comes 20 days earlier).

So they dressed up the son of one of the people living there as Sinterklaas. He did not hand out presents, was only in some public places. He had no symptoms either but apparently did not get tested.
Not sure how the rules and times are in Belgium but here in NL it would be totally doable to do a test 48 hours in advance and to get the result the next day.

Result: 45 positives among staff and people ling in the care home.
https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6096272/sinterklaas-in-belgisch-woonzorgcentrum-besmet-45-mensen-met-coronavirus.html

PS: The article says he is the superspreader and maybe that is correct but maybe someone from the staff who worked with him that day brought it in. Maybe they can rule that out via other data?
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10201 on: December 12, 2020, 05:31:10 PM »
This is why I believe in the free market approach. Don’t close down restaurants, make them and their patrons liable for damages related to coronavirus infections acquired in their location.


 Then each of them can figure out their individual risk and act accordingly.

If you had a restaurant (which you clearly don´t) how would you figure out your individual risk?

And the burden of proof might be problematic.

Free markets can´t solve everything (and a lot of free markets are not that free but that is more a topic for another subforum).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10202 on: December 12, 2020, 05:32:31 PM »
Might we see: "We know you're grieving over the death of your child, but you're being arrested for child neglect induced homicide for celebrating the child's birthday at a restaurant that had been ordered closed for health reasons."  :'(
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10203 on: December 12, 2020, 06:20:33 PM »
Exceedingly unlikely since there are very little deaths in the children cohort and possibly none without underlying consequences.



Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10204 on: December 12, 2020, 08:32:25 PM »
This is why I believe in the free market approach. Don’t close down restaurants, make them and their patrons liable for damages related to coronavirus infections acquired in their location.


 Then each of them can figure out their individual risk and act accordingly.

Does not work. This is a highly contagious virus.

Table of eight early twenty YO adults could be betting on a mild case if they catch it at all. Meanwhile the 3 at the table that do catch it triggers a spread into the surrounding community which results in 276 cases and seven deaths.

(Really sad about what happened in that assisted living facility, by the way.)
« Last Edit: December 12, 2020, 09:07:10 PM by Shared Humanity »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10205 on: December 13, 2020, 09:04:16 AM »
This is why I believe in the free market approach. Don’t close down restaurants, make them and their patrons liable for damages related to coronavirus infections acquired in their location.


 Then each of them can figure out their individual risk and act accordingly.

Nah.

I believe that free markets can solve many things much better than governments, but there are some glaring inefficiencies and externalies related to free markets. That is when you need a strong government. This is one of those cases. This thing should have been stopped long ago by able governments. Alas, we don't seem to have those in the West.

Meanwhile... Taiwan has 7 (seven!) dead and 736 infected. 1% mortality suggests that they found basically ALL cases. That is how you do it. Act early, act fast, act forcefully.

Bernard

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10206 on: December 13, 2020, 11:29:13 AM »

Taiwan has 7 (seven!) dead and 736 infected. 1% mortality suggests that they found basically ALL cases. That is how you do it. Act early, act fast, act forcefully.

Looking at Worldometers and sorting the table of countries/territories by number of deaths per Million habitants.

- 24 countries territories with zero (declared) death, among which a majority of small islands, but also Mongolia, Eritrea, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos.

- 6 countries with less than 1 death/M : Burundi, Taiwan, Tanzania, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea and Thailand.

- At less than 5, China ties with Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin and Rwanda.

- New Zealand, Singapore, Ivory Coast and Uganda at 5

I don't have any simple unique explanation for those figures.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10207 on: December 13, 2020, 01:04:30 PM »

Taiwan has 7 (seven!) dead and 736 infected. 1% mortality suggests that they found basically ALL cases. That is how you do it. Act early, act fast, act forcefully.

Looking at Worldometers and sorting the table of countries/territories by number of deaths per Million habitants.

- 24 countries territories with zero (declared) death, among which a majority of small islands, but also Mongolia, Eritrea, Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos.

- 6 countries with less than 1 death/M : Burundi, Taiwan, Tanzania, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea and Thailand.

- At less than 5, China ties with Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin and Rwanda.

- New Zealand, Singapore, Ivory Coast and Uganda at 5

I don't have any simple unique explanation for those figures.

My sister lives in Tanzania. They only reported deaths on 7 days between 10 April and 8 May and cases on only a few more days. Then announced suspended reporting for some improvements but reporting hasn't resumed. So the numbers are definitely underreported and mainly not reported at all there. She knows of at least 2 people who have died likely due to covid and unlikely to be part of 21 reported deaths. Having said this, it doesn't seem to be a huge problem in the country despite little in the way of restrictions.

(She is a schoolteacher international school ~1000 kids plus families who likely travel much more than normal + teachers, friends, husbands work ... so 2 deaths is 2 more than wanted but not particularly indicative of a huge problem in the country.)

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10208 on: December 13, 2020, 03:29:11 PM »
I obviously do not believe what Tanzania says but that is just a red herring.

The thing is, that many countries were able to cope with this malaise pretty well. It was possible early on. And what a shame what happened in Europe and the USA. I honestly believe that most of these politicians should go on trial for this. This is mass murder by negligence, no less.

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10209 on: December 13, 2020, 04:47:21 PM »
I obviously do not believe what Tanzania says but that is just a red herring.

The thing is, that many countries were able to cope with this malaise pretty well. It was possible early on. And what a shame what happened in Europe and the USA. I honestly believe that most of these politicians should go on trial for this. This is mass murder by negligence, no less.

Thunderclap at the Ministry of Solidarity and Health. While Prime Minister Jean Castex must decide on deconfinement this Thursday at 6 p.m., doctors from the C19 collective have sent the Paris public prosecutor's office an emergency hearing request for the director general of health, Jérôme Salomon. This initiative is part of the investigations opened by the Paris prosecutor's office and the French Court of Justice on the management of the health crisis following complaints from the same group.

The additional request comes in response to revelations from the Senate Commission of Inquiry, which released its report Thursday, November 10. Its findings directly implicate Jérôme Salomon, accused of having lobbied for the modification of a report ordered in 2018 and then submitted in 2019 by experts to Public Health France on the state of the country's strategic stocks of masks. While the initial report recommended the constitution of a strategic stock of 1 billion masks, the final document published in May 2019 on the site of Public Health France only mentions a figure of 100 million masks. Thanks to the intervention of Jérôme Salomon? The lawyer of the collective, Me Fabrice Di Vizio hopes, in addition to the hearing by the investigating judge, an indictment of the director general of health for false testimony before the parliamentary commission of inquiry. “That in the United States is worth the resignation of the entire health agency at once, and it's worth a federal commission of inquiry, only in France we are able to minimize that ”, He insists.

“This request thus aims to clarify a situation in which Jérôme Salomon continues to exercise his functions of primary importance in the management of the crisis despite the revelations of the Senate commission of inquiry”, it is written in a press release disseminated by his cabinet. In the report made public by the Senate, parliamentarians criticize the DGS in particular for having "intervened in the work of experts to modify the wording of their recommendations relating to the constitution of the stock of masks".

https://www.capital.fr/economie-politique/stock-de-masques-un-collectif-de-medecins-demande-laudition-urgente-de-jerome-salomon-par-la-justice-1388318
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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10210 on: December 13, 2020, 04:56:16 PM »
This is why I believe in the free market approach. Don’t close down restaurants, make them and their patrons liable for damages related to coronavirus infections acquired in their location.

Then each of them can figure out their individual risk and act accordingly.
This would require a complete test and trace record of everybody's movements on the computers at all times whether that person is currently infected or not.
Big Brother or what?

Sounds also like yet another lawyer's feast.
You are rich, your lawyer is good.
I am poor. my lawyer is crap.
You win. I lose.

Meanwhile, I have added a line about active cases to the daily cases US graph.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10211 on: December 14, 2020, 01:03:49 PM »
Following Germany the Netherlands will also have a hard lockdown starting tomorrow and it is planned to last until January 19th.

All schools will close from tomorrow, contact workers like barbers have to close and all non essential stores will have to close. Not that anyone has a definition of non essential stores and i wonder what they will come up with...

Theatres and cinema´s will also close.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6096560/harde-lockdown-tot-en-met-19-januari-niet-essentiele-winkels-scholen-en-theaters-sluiten.html

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10212 on: December 14, 2020, 02:05:44 PM »
I feel sorry for her  ;D

https://xkcd.com/2396/
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10213 on: December 14, 2020, 05:13:39 PM »
Meanwhile in the last afternoon before lockdown it is really busy at all the barbers and of course lots of people do their christmas shopping now. Calls to stay away from the city centers in quite a lot of places...

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10214 on: December 14, 2020, 05:27:14 PM »


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10215 on: December 14, 2020, 05:33:20 PM »
Why Trump's Operation Warp Speed is credited with helping race for COVID-19 vaccine

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/operation-warp-speed-trump-pfizer-moderna-vaccine-1.5806820

Operation Warp Speed, a Trump administration initiative to manufacture COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible, should be lauded as a successful endeavour in what has otherwise been a poor effort to deal with the coronavirus, experts say.

"No doubt, Operation Warp Speed is a huge success," said Tinglong Dai, associate professor of Operations Management and Business Analytics at Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School in Baltimore.

"You can like or hate the Trump administration, but no doubt, it's a huge success — unprecedented success."

Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also lauded Operation Warp Speed for being a "success — certainly in the arena of vaccines, it's been a success" in his remarks at a recent virtual summit organized by the medical news site Stat.

Launched in May, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) is a government initiated private/public $10 billion US program to help provide support to companies in the development, manufacturing and distribution of 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, with the aim of having initial doses ready by January 2021.

The experts agree that Operation Warp Speed played a significant role in Moderna's development of a potential vaccine.

"Without OWS, there would be no Moderna vaccine. Period," Dai said.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10216 on: December 14, 2020, 05:58:13 PM »
Everyone fast tracked their vaccines.

In other news Operation I don´t care was also a huge success for the Trump administration.  ::)
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10217 on: December 14, 2020, 06:03:26 PM »
Meanwhile in the last afternoon before lockdown it is really busy at all the barbers and of course lots of people do their christmas shopping now. Calls to stay away from the city centers in quite a lot of places...

I think Christmas shopping may well be what tipped London over the edge rather than the mutant variant the minister is blaming. Tier 3 for London and the areas immediately north and east of it announced this afternoon. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55306928
Looks like doubling time there was getting close to a week, so I'm not sure Tier 3 will be good enough. Maybe next week they'll have to copy the Scots and add Tier 4.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10218 on: December 14, 2020, 06:29:41 PM »
Pfizer and Moderna Could Earn $32 Billion In Revenues From Their COVID-19 Vaccines in 2021
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-moderna-biontech-vaccine-sales-revenue-covid-19-shot-2021-2020-12%3famp

Pfizer and Moderna could earn $32 billion in revenues from their COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 alone, according to Wall Street estimates.

Pfizer expects to supply up to 1.3 billion doses of its shot in 2021, while Moderna expects to manufacture between 500 million and 1 billion doses.

This could earn Moderna $13.2 billion in revenues, according to a Goldman Sachs note to investors.

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech are set to make roughly $19 billion, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, which project the companies could make almost $30 billion in vaccine revenues by the end of 2023.

-------------------------------------------------

Pfizer's Coronavirus Vaccine Supply Contract Excludes Many Taxpayer Protections
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/24/938591815/pfizers-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-contract-excludes-many-taxpayer-protections

... The Pfizer contract has the narrowest protections for taxpayers of any Operation Warp Speed contract released so far, drug policy and intellectual property experts tell NPR. It excludes almost all intellectual property rights, forgoing leverage to use if the company engages in price gouging down the road. It may also set a dangerous precedent for future government contracts, they say.

"The government is giving away the store — meeting critical short-term goals but ignoring long-term serious costs."

...  Trump administration's crash coronavirus vaccine program awarded more than $6 billion in vaccine contracts through a third party called Advanced Technology International. The contracts executed this way aren't required to include taxpayer protections found in traditional government contracts. They also may not be disclosable under federal public records laws.

... "There's no reason to hide what's in those agreements at all," he said, adding that these contracts are usually disclosable under public records laws. "For the government to set these contracts up in this way and block that type of transparency leads me to think that there's something interesting in there they don't want discovered."

"We don't know the rewards or the incentives that the companies are getting, which might drive some companies to take additional risk or maybe do things inappropriately," Rick Bright, former director of the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority said.

... Since the contracts aren't traditional government contracts, they don't need to include a clause allowing the government to "march in" if the drugmaker engages in price gouging, for example. (Vaccine makers have said they plan to make a profit on their coronavirus vaccines and set higher prices once the immediate crisis is over.) That worries Zupnick, who said he wonders what other taxpayer protections the contracts might have left out.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/10/922617939/call-for-administrations-covid-19-vaccine-contracts-to-be-disclosed

------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10219 on: December 14, 2020, 07:39:28 PM »
More Idaho National Guard Soldiers Tapped for COVID-19 Duty
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/12/13/more-idaho-national-guard-soldiers-tapped-for-covid-19-help/

Idaho’s Republican governor just added 150 more National Guard troops to the 100 he already requested to help with Covid-19 testing, decontamination and screening.

The 250 soldiers help with mobile testing support, facility decontamination and COVID-19 screenings. They are also helping at food banks.

State officials say nearly 120,000 Idaho residents have been infected, and there have been 1,151 deaths. The positivity rate for those getting tested is 20 percent, well above the 5 percent or less state officials want.

----------------------------------------

Idaho Is Getting Ready for ‘Crisis Standards’ Health Care Rationing. Here’s What to Know
https://amp.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article247780380.html

The Idaho Board of Health and Welfare on Friday voted to finalize how Idaho would set in motion the “crisis standards of care,” otherwise known as health care rationing or triage.

The new rule authorizes Idaho Department of Health and Welfare Director Dave Jeppesen to activate the crisis standards, if Idaho’s health care system becomes fully overwhelmed as the pandemic rages out of control.

About 80% of Idaho hospitals are operating at “contingency” status, he said. That is one level before crisis.

Crisis standards won’t just apply to people with COVID-19. They will apply to patients who need medical care for any reason, such as car crashes, heart attacks, strokes or influenza.

“The goal … is to save as many lives as possible, even when the odds are stacked against us,” Gov. Brad Little explained at a press conference Thursday.

Idaho’s most likely path to crisis standards is when too many patients need to be hospitalized, there aren’t enough health care workers to staff hospitals, and Idaho’s hospitals that fill up can no longer find anywhere else to send patients.

St. Luke’s and Saint Alphonsus health systems — who take a large share of the critically ill and injured patients in Idaho — estimate that Idaho may hit that point around Christmas or New Year’s Day. But it may be earlier, and it may be inevitable at this point, two Idaho health care leaders told the Idaho Statesman.

“We could easily be a week, 10 days away from crisis standards of care,” Dr. David Pate, retired CEO of St. Luke’s Health System and a member of Gov. Brad Little’s coronavirus working group, told the Statesman on Thursday. “The governor didn’t want to put a date on it, and he was right not to. … I look at, what are the hospitals doing right now? What I see is they’re checking off almost everything on my list, which means they’re running out of options.”

Idaho is likely at a point of no return, according to Dr. Ted Epperly, a physician who runs Idaho’s largest medical residency and serves on the Central District Health board.

He believes that Idaho will reach crisis standards of care this winter due to a “toxic combination” of COVID-19 mixed with flu season, and the holidays. People taking risks from Thanksgiving through the New Year’s holiday season will “propagate a cycle” through the next couple of months, he predicts, pushing the health care system beyond its limits and into crisis standards.

“That is going to happen,” he said. “Things will only get worse.”

Epperly said that, while he believes the coronavirus is too far out of control to prevent crisis standards, anything Idahoans do to avoid catching and spreading the virus will lessen the harm to Idaho.

... Hospitals have repeatedly said they will provide as much care as they can, even if they must deny resources to a patient. For example, if a patient is too likely to die, they may not receive a ventilator immediately but could receive medication to keep them comfortable.

... “I may be the only health care CEO (in Idaho) who ever operated under these kinds of conditions,” Pate told the Statesman on Thursday.

He was in Houston, running a hospital, when a tropical storm hit and caused significant flooding, he said.

...“I had families calling me,” he said. “I still have PTSD about this — families calling me, begging, pleading, crying with me to take their family member, because their family member wasn’t going to survive. … I had to tell those people, ‘I don’t have beds, I don’t have staff. Even if you were here, I couldn’t provide care.’ It is horrendous. It will keep you up at night. It will psychologically damage you.”

The situation then “wasn’t as bad as what we’re talking about” with the pandemic, he added.


-------------------------------------

Terry Rapson : I'm afraid that time has come and gone, my friend.

Jack Hall : What can we do?

Terry Rapson : Save as many as you can.

- The Day After Tomorrow - (2004)


---------------------------------------

With COVID-19 Rampant in Idaho, Republican Gov. Little Asks for Compliance, Still Refuses to Issue Mask Mandate
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/dec/10/with-covid-on-the-rise-gov-little-urges-compliance/

Despite Idaho facing anti-mask protests in Boise, overrun hospitals in the Panhandle and an extraordinarily high number of test results coming back positive, in his first news conference in a month, Gov. Brad Little stopped short of implementing any more public health orders on Thursday.

Little refused to implement any sort of further statewide mandate on masks or gatherings, something he said he believes should be left to local jurisdictions.

As of Thursday, Idaho had the highest percentage positive rate in the United States. Of all the people who had a test for COVID, 55.6% of the results came back positive, according to Johns Hopkins University of Medicine Coronavirus Testing Tracker.

In multiple counties, Little said morgues are full. Emergency calls for COVID-19 patients in some areas are up 300%, and so far this year, COVID-19 is the third-leading cause of death in the state.

When asked what more he can do in order to avoid implementing those procedures, Little again pointed to compliance, adding he’s done everything he can to improve health care capacity.

--------------------------------------

Idaho’s Crisis Standards of Care Plan: https://publicdocuments.dhw.idaho.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=11746&dbid=0&repo=PUBLIC-DOCUMENTS&cr=1

Checklist: https://publicdocuments.dhw.idaho.gov/WebLink/DocView.aspx?id=14235&dbid=0&repo=PUBLIC-DOCUMENTS

https://healthandwelfare.idaho.gov/health-wellness/emergency-planning/emergency-preparedness

---------------------------------------

... Crisis standards have been activated in the U.S. in Arizona during the summer surge.

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/07/03/as-covid-19-worsens-az-is-the-first-state-to-enact-crisis-care-standards/
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10220 on: December 14, 2020, 10:50:22 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55309269

Now in wild mink.

In an alert to the International Society for Infectious Diseases, US veterinary officials said a wild mink had tested positive around an infected mink farm in Utah.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10221 on: December 14, 2020, 11:06:47 PM »
Quote
Pfizer and Moderna could earn $32 billion in revenues from their COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 alone, according to Wall Street estimates.

Pfizer expects to supply up to 1.3 billion doses of its shot in 2021, while Moderna expects to manufacture between 500 million and 1 billion doses.

Also this:

https://observer.com/2020/11/covid19-vaccine-price-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-oxford/
Quote
AstraZeneca is a member of Covax, a global initiative aiming to distribute two billion vaccine doses to 92 low- and middle-income countries at no more than $3 a dose. Neither Pfizer nor Moderna has joined the initiative.


Gray-Wolf

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10222 on: December 15, 2020, 12:34:17 AM »
Well Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!

You lock down adults but keep the kiddies in School....basically feeding the virus on 'receptor site poor' immature lungs & what is going to happen?

What! The Virus mutates to better infect a receptor site poor environment.....fancy that!

But then what happens when this new strain hits 'Mature' Lungs with their full compliment of receptor spikes?......Oh Yeah! it infects Reeeeaaal fast & Reeeeeaaaal well...

London & the SE sees a new mutation rapidly spreading there.....
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10223 on: December 15, 2020, 04:23:46 AM »
Laredo TX Health Authority Issues Order to Transfer Patients Out of Hospital to Create Capacity Buffer
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Laredo-health-authority-issues-order-to-transfer-15801439.php

Laredo Health Authority Victor Treviño on Monday signed a new public health order meant to create a buffer in local hospitals’ intensive care units, which have been consistently overwhelmed and at capacity with COVID-19 patients.

When COVID-19 patients make up 25% or more of Laredo’s total hospital capacity, as has been the case for nearly three weeks, the hospitals are required to transfer some patients out in order to create a 5%-15% buffer in the ICU and medical surgical units.

Patients can be transferred to step down facilities, alternate care sites, in-home treatment or to hospitals or other facilities out of town. [... which don't exist]

Patients will not be denied services or treatment, Treviño wrote in his order. He and the city are working with the hospitals to implement additional mitigation measures, he said.

When speaking to the media on Monday, the health authority noted that there is little to no capacity in the city’s ICUs.

“And there is limited space in the medsurge units, however, not enough to handle any surge that’s expected throughout the holidays. And this is also concerning because the seven-day positivity is at 15%,” Treviño said.

Treviño has long said that a buffer is necessary to absorb surges of new patients at the hospital. But a buffer is difficult to create with such limited personnel, he said.

The city’s emergency order already included a subsection instructing hospitals to transfer patients who qualify for long-term acute care, such as a tracheostomy or gastrostomy, in order to make room for other patients at the hospitals.

-------------------------------------------

ICUs Pushed Beyond Capacity At Texas Medical Center, World’s Largest Medical Center
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/12/10/icus-pushed-beyond-capacity-at-texas-medical-center-worlds-largest-medical-center/

Regular ICU space has run out at Texas Medical Center hospitals in Houston, leading to surge capacity measures now being put in place as Texas grapples with a record surge in Covid-19.

1,387 total ICU beds are occupied at Texas Medical Center facilities, which is more than 104% of TMC’s regular capacity of 1,330 beds.

TMC is now in “Phase 2” of its intensive care surge, which can convert up to 373 regular hospital beds into available ICU space.

There are currently 9,053 Covid patients hospitalized in Texas, according to the state, which is still short of the height of the July surge when more than 10,000 were hospitalized in Texas for about two weeks.

ICU space is running out in cities all around the country, including other regions in Texas. The state’s Trauma Service Area D, which covers a population of over 300,000 in the north-central part of the state, is reporting 0 available ICU beds. Region M, which covers a population of almost 350,000 between Dallas and Austin, is reporting one available ICU bed.

-----------------------------------------

Riverside County nears 0% ICU capacity Monday; Southern California at 2.7%
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-19-riverside-county-nears-0-25-icu-capacity-monday-southern-california-at-27-25/ar-BB1bVpMd

Riverside County's intensive care unit capacity fell to almost zero on Monday, the public health department said, while the larger Southern California region designated by the state under COVID-19 protocols fell to 2.7% ICU capacity.

With 30,334 new cases, California now has 1,551,766 confirmed coronavirus infections.

When state officials began reporting the data on Dec. 3, Southern California’s capacity was 20.6%, but even then, officials were expressing concern amid the current, uncontrolled surge in new infections.

The Southern California area — labeled Region 5 by the state — includes Imperial, Inyo, Los Angeles, Mono, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

------------------------------------------

Angelenos Urged To Avoid ER As COVID-19 Patients Crowd Hospitals
https://patch.com/california/los-angeles/angelenos-urged-avoid-er-covid-19-patients-crowd-hospitals

LOS ANGELES, CA — Angelenos are being asked to avoid hospital emergency rooms as the surge of coronavirus patients overwhelm the region's hospital system. Patients with non-emergency needs should seek help from urgent care centers and similar clinics.

... Ghaly painted a dire picture of the situation at the county's 70 "911-receiving" hospitals, which have emergency departments and wind up treating COVID-19 patients. Last week, an average of 35%, or 874, of all patients in hospitals' available ICU beds were COVID-19 patients, while 27%, or 2,681, of patients in standard hospitals beds were being treated for the coronavirus.

"Those numbers are absolutely astounding," she said.

On Sunday, a day when emergency departments are traditionally not as busy, 81% of the 911-receiving hospitals asked to have advanced-life-support ambulance traffic diverted to other medical facilities at some point during the day due to overcrowded ERs. Ghaly said last week the traditional average of hospitals requesting diversion this time of year is 10% to 15%.

...Another method of regulating bed capacity is “diversion,” in which an ambulance is diverted to a hospital — possibly farther away — that has more beds. “We are aware that there are certain hospitals in the county where offload time can exceed four hours,” revealed Ferrer. “That’s why we need the diversion system.”

... Despite nearing ICU capacity, hospital numbers are projected to get much worse before they get better. Ghaly said the county is averaging about 500 new COVID hospital admissions a day, and it is still projecting reaching 700 per day within a week. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer predicted the county will top 5,000 COVID-19 patients by the weekend. There are 2,522 staffed ICU beds total in the county; 2.7% are available.

--------------------------------------

Covid-19 now kills one American every 40 seconds. And the rate keeps accelerating as the death toll tops 300,000

---------------------------------------------



----------------------------------------------

Barstow Community Hospital Faces Dire Situation, Several Nurses Sick With COVID-19
https://abc7.com/health/barstow-community-hospital-at-nearly-twice-its-capacity/8779641/

A nurse who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Eyewitness News that the situation at Barstow Community Hospital is dire, with several nurses sick with COVID-19 and several others physically and emotionally drained from the pandemic.

"It's bad. We are totally overwhelmed and about to collapse. We need more help and we're not getting it," said the unidentified nurse.

Barstow Community Hospital is a 30-bed facility. But interim CEO Suzanne Richards told Eyewitness News that the hospital is currently treating 54 patients, 47 of whom have COVID-19. Its ICU is treating 16 patients, but has only four regular beds.

-----------------------------------------

A nurse at a Whittier CA hospital says they are out of critical equipment, and a mobile morgue has been set up outside.

------------------------------------------

As Hospitals Fear Being Overwhelmed By COVID-19, Do The Disabled Get The Same Access?
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/14/945056176/as-hospitals-fear-being-overwhelmed-by-covid-19-do-the-disabled-get-the-same-acc

On the morning of April 21, Sarah McSweeney woke up with a temperature of 103 degrees — and it kept rising. Staff at her group home worried that the woman with multiple disabilities — she couldn't walk or speak words — had contracted COVID-19. They got her into her bright pink wheelchair and hurried to the hospital, just a block down the street from the group home in Oregon City, Ore.

That afternoon, Heidi Barnett got a phone call from the doctor in the emergency room.

He was puzzled, she says, by a one-page document that McSweeney's caregivers brought with her. It was a legal document that explained what medical care this disabled woman — who couldn't speak for herself — wanted.

"We had her at full code. So all treatment. Because she was young and vibrant and had a great life," says Barnett. "And that was her wishes, that's what we gathered from her. She wanted to be alive."

It's normal for a doctor to want to understand a patient's wishes. However, Barnett, who kept daily notes on her conversations with medical workers about McSweeney, felt the doctor was challenging the order.

"They wanted it to be a DNR," says Barnett.

A Do Not Resuscitate Order is a medical order to doctors not to treat a patient — like McSweeney — if she stops breathing or her heart stops.


That emergency room doctor would be the first at the hospital to raise a question that would shadow decisions about McSweeney's care over nearly three weeks at the hospital: Why does a woman with significant and complex disabilities have a legal order that requires the hospital to take all measures to save her life?

McSweeney was 45 when she died on May 10. Her death would raise another question, one that people with disabilities and the elderly have worried about since the start of the coronavirus pandemic: Are they denied care when it gets scarce — like drugs or treatment, including ventilators — that might save their lives?

An NPR investigation looked into McSweeney's death and about a dozen reports of discrimination in Oregon: Of doctors and hospitals denying equipment like ventilators; insisting that an elderly or disabled person sign a DNR — maybe when they couldn't understand it and in the middle of a crisis — or even denying a COVID-19 test. ...
« Last Edit: December 15, 2020, 06:37:00 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10224 on: December 15, 2020, 06:32:45 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10225 on: December 15, 2020, 01:09:17 PM »
London & the SE sees a new mutation rapidly spreading there.....

Bit more on this:

There is no clear-cut evidence the new variant of coronavirus - which has been detected in south-east England - is able to transmit more easily, cause more serious symptoms or render the vaccine useless.

However, there are two reasons scientists are keeping a close eye on it.

The first is that levels of the variant are higher in places where cases are higher.

It is a warning sign, although it can be interpreted in two ways.

The virus could have mutated to spread more easily and is causing more infections.

But variants can also get a lucky break by infecting the right people at the right time. One explanation for the spread of the "Spanish strain" over the summer was simply people catching it on holiday and then bringing it home.

It will take experiments in the laboratory to figure out if this variant really is a better spreader than all the others.

The other issue that is raising scientific eyebrows is how the virus has mutated.

"It has a surprisingly large number of mutations, more than we would expect, and a few look interesting," Prof Nick Loman from the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium told me.

There are two notable sets of mutation - and I apologise for their hideous names.

Both are found in the crucial spike protein, which is the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells in order to hijack them.

The mutation N501 (I did warn you) alters the most important part of the spike, known as the "receptor-binding domain".

This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body's cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge.

"It looks and smells like an important adaptation," said Prof Loman.

The other mutation - a H69/V70 deletion - has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink.

The concern was that antibodies from the blood of survivors was less effective at attacking that variant of virus.

Again, it is going to take more laboratory studies to really understand what is going on.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55312505
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10226 on: December 15, 2020, 01:27:47 PM »
iRony is the best covid cartoon you have posted, vox_mundi.
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sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10227 on: December 15, 2020, 01:31:17 PM »
Everyone fast tracked their vaccines.

In other news Operation I don´t care was also a huge success for the Trump administration.  ::)

Meanwhile here in the European Union the “Operation I care very very much” is having a fantastic output of deaths.
While our bureaucrats-in-Chief have decided the vaccine won’t start until 2021.

No leaders in sight.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10228 on: December 15, 2020, 02:12:11 PM »
Well Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!

You lock down adults but keep the kiddies in School....basically feeding the virus on 'receptor site poor' immature lungs & what is going to happen?

What! The Virus mutates to better infect a receptor site poor environment.....fancy that!

But then what happens when this new strain hits 'Mature' Lungs with their full compliment of receptor spikes?......Oh Yeah! it infects Reeeeaaal fast & Reeeeeaaaal well...

London & the SE sees a new mutation rapidly spreading there.....

Link please.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10229 on: December 15, 2020, 02:32:01 PM »
One link in Reply #10225.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10230 on: December 15, 2020, 02:37:15 PM »
Glenn Greenwald tweet this morning, on MSNBC lack of authenticity on covid and Trump coverage

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1338835628604203011?s=21
« Last Edit: December 15, 2020, 02:48:39 PM by sailor »

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10231 on: December 15, 2020, 04:57:40 PM »
Well Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!

You lock down adults but keep the kiddies in School....basically feeding the virus on 'receptor site poor' immature lungs & what is going to happen?

What! The Virus mutates to better infect a receptor site poor environment.....fancy that!

But then what happens when this new strain hits 'Mature' Lungs with their full compliment of receptor spikes?......Oh Yeah! it infects Reeeeaaal fast & Reeeeeaaaal well...

London & the SE sees a new mutation rapidly spreading there.....

Link please.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founder_effect

The variant that happened to be there at the beginning of an outbreak dominates it. The unusually high dependence on superspreading makes Covid particularly susceptible to founder effects. It would have been surprising if a wave didn't show a founder effect rather than a mutation being required to cause a wave.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10232 on: December 15, 2020, 05:00:31 PM »
The linked article addresses how Hawaii leveraged its physical and social attributes to keep Covid infections low, how it requires - and enforces- quarantines on arrivals to its airports.
I've yet to see a similar analysis of Alaska, the other isolated state with no land border (it does of course  border on Canada's Yukon, but that border has been closed to all but essential traffic since March).
However Alaska has taken a classic Red State approach to the pandemic, relying on personal responsibility over regulations, with predictable results.
Hawaii ranks in the bottom 3 states for infections per head while Alaska is rapidly climbing the table and is currently 26th, ahead of Texas and Florida.
Another similarity between the states is that they both have significant Indigenous populations that vividly recall the toll that previous epidemics took.
When the book on America's Covid pandemic response is written, these two states will provide an interesting case study of varying approaches.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/12/states-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-quarantine-hawaii/617321/

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10233 on: December 15, 2020, 07:17:50 PM »
One link in Reply #10225.

Yes. Thank you. I saw that after my comment. I just like to read a source document when there is something new.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10234 on: December 15, 2020, 09:25:29 PM »
Maybe the link was forgotten, that sometimes happens. In general i think it is a good idea to read all the new posts and then go back and comment.
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10235 on: December 15, 2020, 09:43:31 PM »
Important data:
https://www.spainenglish.com/2020/12/15/spanish-population-covid-19/

Results from the fourth round of a nationwide antibody study have shown that nearly 10% of the Spanish population has already had Coronavirus (Covid-19). This would represent approximately 4.7 million citizens...From the first round of the study, back in May, it showed that around 5% of the population had developed antibodies. In July, that figure had risen slightly to 5.2%

Quick math: Spain had cca 19000 deaths since July, and cca 2,2 million infections which is 0,85% real mortality in the second wave

I hoped that it would be 0,4-0,6% due to somewhat better procedures and less elderly falling sick. Unfortunately we are still close to 1% mortality in Europe it seems.

I also hoped that by the end of the year 20% of Europeans would have immunity but this also seems overly optimistic. There will be serious lockdowns and whatnot until April/May. Herd immunity is a "bridge too far"


SimonF92

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10236 on: December 16, 2020, 09:49:58 AM »
The problem with using antibodies to extrapolate infections is that an antibody response is transient.

I went to a conference a few months ago where the keynote had headed population-level covid analysis in the UK and they were suggesting that the Ab response seems to last a few weeks (the data wasnt great). The only way to really gauge population level immunity is to perform a T-cell assay which is virtually impossible at scale.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3364

Its probable absolute mortality is lower than that calculated against Ab seroprevalence
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10237 on: December 16, 2020, 11:47:56 AM »
California Orders 5,000 Body Bags, Refrigerated Trucks On Standby as COVID Surges
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/5000-body-bags-ordered-refrigerated-trucks-standby-covid/story?id=74741632

California has purchased thousands of body bags and has dozens of refrigerated storage units on standby as it prepares to deal with a growing death toll from Covid-19.

The state has distributed 5,000 newly purchased body bags to San Diego, Los Angeles and Inyo counties, and has 60 53-foot refrigerated storage units on standby in counties and at hospitals, the Gov. said.

California is also activating its coroner mutual aid and Mass Fatality Plan, Newsom said, to coordinate the response of coroners and morgues.
https://www.caloes.ca.gov/cal-oes-divisions/law-enforcement/mutual-aid-system/coroners-mass-fatality

https://www.caloes.ca.gov/LawEnforcementSite/Documents/6%20-%20Mass%20Fatality%20Plan.pdf

Large parts of the state are under stay-at-home orders.

The state reported 32,326 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, amid "historically high" case numbers, the governor said. "Its 14-day average positivity rate is 10.7% -- the highest it's been since the beginning of the pandemic." Two weeks ago, that rate was 6.9%.



The number of people hospitalized for Covid-19 in California rose from around 8,500 on Dec. 1 to around 14,200 on Monday, increasing 68% in the past two weeks, he said. And the state's intensive care unit capacity averages around 5.7% statewide.

Intensive care unit admissions have also increased 54% in the past two weeks. The San Joaquin Valley and Southern California regions have ICU availability under 2%. When a region hits 0% ICU capacity, surge staffing and surge management go into effect, Newsom said.

Nearly half of the Los Angeles County's ICU beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients, officials said Monday. By the weekend, it could be more than half, as health officials pleaded with residents to stay home.

From Nov 9th - Dec 10th, avg daily hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 increased 312%


https://twitter.com/lapublichealth/status/1338921838114693122
https://mobile.twitter.com/lapublichealth

The average number of deaths from the disease in the state was 163 a day as of Monday, Newsom said, using a seven-day average. A month ago on Nov. 14, the average daily number was 41.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is providing 80 paramedics and emergency medical technicians, and the state has requested 200 more health care workers from the Defense Department of Defense.

"I want to remind folks: It's not the flu. This is not something to trifle with," Newsom said. "This is a deadly disease, a deadly pandemic, and we're in the middle of it right now."

-------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10238 on: December 16, 2020, 12:02:34 PM »
Mysterious Gap In COVID-19 Deaths Appeared In Florida Before the Presidential Election
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-ss-prem-covid-deaths-florida-election-20201216-f4kgezjf4rf75ppumt4omxfsxy-story.html?outputType=amp



FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — An astonishing pattern has emerged in Florida’s COVID-19 death tally — one that suggests the state manipulated a backlog of unrecorded fatalities, presenting more favorable death counts in the days leading up to the 2020 presidential election.

At issue is the state’s handling of the lag between the date someone dies and the date Florida reports that death in the public count. With minor exceptions, Florida quit including long-backlogged deaths in its daily counts on Oct. 24, 10 days before the Nov. 3 election, and resumed consistently including them on Nov. 17, two weeks after the election.

The result: The daily death numbers Floridians saw during that time were significantly lower than they otherwise would have been.

The change came just three days after the administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced that it would conduct an additional review of every suspected COVID death before adding it to Florida’s count.

Analysts who track Florida’s numbers say they’re perplexed by the state’s pause in reporting months-old deaths. They said they, too, had asked the state for clarity but received no response.

“The Department of Health hasn’t explained why lags have been inconsistent. When they keep changing whatever is going on behind the scenes, when the lags keep changing, that is where it gets confusing” said Scott David Herr, a Florida computer scientist who tracks the daily COVID data.

... On Oct. 21: Florida Surgeon General Dr. Scott Rivkees announced the state would impose another layer of review on deaths before releasing totals, saying many deaths took place more than a month before being reported or months after the person tested positive for COVID-19. “To ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 related deaths, the department will be performing additional reviews of all deaths. Timely and accurate data remains a top priority of the Department of Health.”

Within days, things changed. A key category vanished from the state’s daily tallies: deaths that occurred more than a month earlier. Such deaths have long formed a significant part of the daily totals in Florida and other states, because death reports from doctors don’t always arrive at the health department immediately, instead trickling in over days and weeks.

The impact of that change was huge. Consider: In the month that preceded the change, from Sept. 23 to Oct. 20, the state included in its daily tallies 1,128 deaths that occurred at least a month earlier -- accounting for 44% of the deaths announced during that time. But in the week before the election, the health department included just one such death in its daily tallies.

A striking and mysterious resumption of backlogged death reporting came on Sunday, Nov. 8. On that day, the state logged the smallest number of reported new deaths in several months, just 15. And that day’s tally included the greatest percentage of backlogged deaths of any day yet - a staggering 74% of deaths reported that day were more than a month old. But because there were so few recent deaths recorded, the total tally for Nov. 8 appeared similar to the daily counts reported on the days before and after it.

The public didn’t see the actual dates of the deaths in that tally. What the public saw: a death count that declined in the days leading up to the election, and slowly climbed back up in the days after it. ... Whatever the intent, the change led to more favorable death trends as the election approached.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10239 on: December 16, 2020, 12:27:29 PM »
The Covid 19 risk deniers engaged in manipulation efforts similar to that of those who engage in climate change risk.

However, Covid 19 happens over less than a year while climate change happens over decades. The consequences of Covid 19 risk denial are much easier to perceive, even when they are relatively smaller.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10240 on: December 16, 2020, 01:08:09 PM »
COVID-19 Patients at Higher Risk of Death, Health Problems Than Those With Flu: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-covid-patients-higher-death-health.html

From the beginning, most scientists have said that COVID-19 is deadlier than the seasonal flu, while fringe theories have circulated widely, suggesting it is less deadly or flu's equal. Evidence is accumulating, however, to show just how much deadlier COVID-19 is compared with the flu and the extent of complications related to the two illnesses.

The new research—a deep dive into federal data by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System—reveals a clearer distinction between the two contagious viruses: Among hospitalized patients, COVID-19 was associated with an increased need for ventilators, more admissions into intensive care units (ICUs), longer hospital stays and nearly five times the risk of death than faced by those with the flu.

And although both illnesses attack the lungs, the analysis showed COVID-19 also can damage other organs. It revealed that COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of complications such as acute kidney and liver damage, as well as heart disorders, stroke, severe septic shock, low blood pressure, excessive blood clotting and new-onset diabetes.

The findings are published online Dec. 15 ET in the journal The BMJ.

... "Our research represents an apples-to-apples comparison between the two diseases."

... One of the biggest surprises in the study was the finding of a higher risk of developing diabetes among COVID-19 patients than flu patients—nine more cases per 100 people. "These patients didn't have diabetes until they got COVID-19," Al-Aly said. "Then their blood sugar spiked, and they needed huge doses of insulin. Is the diabetes reversible, or will it require long-term management? Will it be Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes? We just don't know because COVID-19 barely existed a year ago.

The researchers also found that, when compared with the flu, COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of acute kidney damage and severe sepsis shock—both at six more cases on average per 100 hospitalized patients.

Compared with flu patients, people with COVID-19 also required more medications to treat severely low blood pressure, a condition that can lead to organ damage and death—11.5 more people per 100 people.

"We can call COVID-19 a respiratory virus all we want, but if you look at the associated clinical consequences, it can cause significant damage to the brain, liver, heart, kidneys and blood-clotting systems," Al-Aly said. "It's a destructive virus."

Al-Aly continued: "It's quite possible that a year or five years from now there could be COVID-19 complications that we haven't considered. Already, we're aware of the long-haulers, or people who get COVID-19 but never fully recover. ... Even for people who are fortunate to survive the acute COVID-19 illness, they may be forever scarred by the lasting impact of its long-term clinical complications."

Yan Xie et al, Comparative evaluation of clinical manifestations and risk of death in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 and seasonal influenza: cohort study, BMJ (2020)
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4677

...Results: Compared with seasonal influenza, covid-19 was associated with higher risk of acute kidney injury (odds ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.69), incident renal replacement therapy (4.11, 3.13 to 5.40), incident insulin use (1.86, 1.62 to 2.14), severe septic shock (4.04, 3.38 to 4.83), vasopressor use (3.95, 3.46 to 4.51), pulmonary embolism (1.50, 1.18 to 1.90), deep venous thrombosis (1.50, 1.20 to 1.88), stroke (1.62, 1.17 to 2.24), acute myocarditis (7.82, 3.53 to 17.36), arrythmias and sudden cardiac death (1.76, 1.40 to 2.20), elevated troponin (1.75, 1.50 to 2.05), elevated aspartate aminotransferase (3.16, 2.91 to 3.43), elevated alanine aminotransferase (2.65, 2.43 to 2.88), and rhabdomyolysis (1.84, 1.54 to 2.18). Compared with seasonal influenza, covid-19 was also associated with higher risk of death, mechanical ventilator use, and admission to intensive care (hazard ratio 4.97, (95% confidence interval 4.42 to 5.58), 4.01 (3.53 to 4.54), and 2.41 (2.25 to 2.59), respectively) and 3.00 (2.20 to 3.80) additional days of hospital stay. Differences in rates of death per 100 patients between covid-19 and seasonal influenza were most pronounced in people over 75 years of age with chronic kidney disease or dementia and those with black race and obesity, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10241 on: December 16, 2020, 02:10:30 PM »
vox_mundi...want to thank you again for the effort you put into finding and posting research on this disease...anyone reading these links cannot help but be concerned about the long term impacts on the health of those who have recovered and the effect it will have on our health care system as these persons age.

This disease is a disaster and I question the motives of anyone who would seek to dismiss it or compare it to the flu.

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10242 on: December 16, 2020, 02:52:39 PM »
The Covid 19 risk deniers engaged in manipulation efforts similar to that of those who engage in climate change risk.

However, Covid 19 happens over less than a year while climate change happens over decades. The consequences of Covid 19 risk denial are much easier to perceive, even when they are relatively smaller.

Let me guess: they're all Russian operatives

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10243 on: December 16, 2020, 02:55:42 PM »
Mysterious Gap In COVID-19 Deaths Appeared In Florida Before the Presidential Election
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-ss-prem-covid-deaths-florida-election-20201216-f4kgezjf4rf75ppumt4omxfsxy-story.html?outputType=amp



FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — An astonishing pattern has emerged in Florida’s COVID-19 death tally — one that suggests the state manipulated a backlog of unrecorded fatalities, presenting more favorable death counts in the days leading up to the 2020 presidential election.

At issue is the state’s handling of the lag between the date someone dies and the date Florida reports that death in the public count. With minor exceptions, Florida quit including long-backlogged deaths in its daily counts on Oct. 24, 10 days before the Nov. 3 election, and resumed consistently including them on Nov. 17, two weeks after the election.

The result: The daily death numbers Floridians saw during that time were significantly lower than they otherwise would have been.

The change came just three days after the administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced that it would conduct an additional review of every suspected COVID death before adding it to Florida’s count.

Analysts who track Florida’s numbers say they’re perplexed by the state’s pause in reporting months-old deaths. They said they, too, had asked the state for clarity but received no response.

“The Department of Health hasn’t explained why lags have been inconsistent. When they keep changing whatever is going on behind the scenes, when the lags keep changing, that is where it gets confusing” said Scott David Herr, a Florida computer scientist who tracks the daily COVID data.

... On Oct. 21: Florida Surgeon General Dr. Scott Rivkees announced the state would impose another layer of review on deaths before releasing totals, saying many deaths took place more than a month before being reported or months after the person tested positive for COVID-19. “To ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 related deaths, the department will be performing additional reviews of all deaths. Timely and accurate data remains a top priority of the Department of Health.”

Within days, things changed. A key category vanished from the state’s daily tallies: deaths that occurred more than a month earlier. Such deaths have long formed a significant part of the daily totals in Florida and other states, because death reports from doctors don’t always arrive at the health department immediately, instead trickling in over days and weeks.

The impact of that change was huge. Consider: In the month that preceded the change, from Sept. 23 to Oct. 20, the state included in its daily tallies 1,128 deaths that occurred at least a month earlier -- accounting for 44% of the deaths announced during that time. But in the week before the election, the health department included just one such death in its daily tallies.

A striking and mysterious resumption of backlogged death reporting came on Sunday, Nov. 8. On that day, the state logged the smallest number of reported new deaths in several months, just 15. And that day’s tally included the greatest percentage of backlogged deaths of any day yet - a staggering 74% of deaths reported that day were more than a month old. But because there were so few recent deaths recorded, the total tally for Nov. 8 appeared similar to the daily counts reported on the days before and after it.

The public didn’t see the actual dates of the deaths in that tally. What the public saw: a death count that declined in the days leading up to the election, and slowly climbed back up in the days after it. ... Whatever the intent, the change led to more favorable death trends as the election approached.



Trump & friends (f**ing Governor de Santis) are responsible, no doubt. BTW what was of Rebekah Jones? I heard she was trying to reconstruct Florida data (after being raided by De Santis Gestapo at gun point) together with other activists.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10244 on: December 16, 2020, 04:00:36 PM »
SH

Hopefully, in a few months, those of us with access to a vaccine will have less to worry about. Unfortunately, it seems many on this planet will not see a vaccine till 2022, 23, or even 2024.

Locally, here in Connecticut, hospitals population profile was 26-33% COVID-19 patients as of last week. Occupancy is approaching 85-90%. Significant nursing shortage due to illness or quarantine. A friend who works as an EMT with the local fire dept. said one of our largest hospitals is no longer taking patients.

Meanwhile, we're expecting 15-20 in. (40-50 cm.) of snow over the next 2 days. Never a good combination when you have an emergency and need an ambulance. No MedEvac flights either. Fortunately, I'll be binge watching movies (as long as the power stays on).

-------------------------------------

sailor,

Re: Rebekah Jones

She's on Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/georebekah 

https://mobile.twitter.com/GeoRebekah/status/1338969013620236288

1 in 3 adults in the USA has been arrested, even if they're never convicted of a crime or formal charges filed against them.

I am among those people who have been arrested only to have charges dropped.

The problem here is not people.  It's policing.


.... Kind of like "round 'em up and let the system sort them out". What a country.

... And that arrest goes with you even if the charges are dropped. ... And what about the innocent who plea bargained so they could take care of their families? ... Or those who didn't have the financial means or the heart to fight

---------------------------------------

Thought for the day ...

You know the two awesome vaccines that will tame the pandemic?

Pfizer's vaccine developed by two Turkish immigrants

Moderna's vaccine developed by a black woman virologist (@KizzyPhD) @NIH

Another reason for diversity in STEM

It makes science better


https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1337951468561829893

---------------------------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/l_e_whyte/status/1337754256171028482

Most recent White House Coronavirus Task Force reports for all 50 states! You can find them all here:

https://beta.documentcloud.org/app?q=project%3Ared-zone-reports-50664%20

White House: “Vaccine implementation will not substantially reduce viral spread, hospitalizations, or fatalities until the 100 million Americans with comorbidities can be fully immunized, which will take until the late spring.”



-----------------------------------------------'

Trump Appointees Describe the Crushing of the C.D.C.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/former-cdc-bosses-complain-that-ivanka-kept-giving-them-unwanted-advice-on-coronavirus-guidance?ref=home

ATLANTA — Two Trump-appointed Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials this week revealed the lengths to which President Donald Trump's White House went to meddle with the agency's public health guidelines.

In interviews with the New York Times, former CDC chief of staff Kyle McGowan and his deputy, Amanda Campbell, detailed how multiple White House officials who had no expertise in public health would regularly order changes to the CDC's pandemic protocols.

"Mr. McGowan and Ms. Campbell mediated between [CDC Director Robert] Redfield and agency scientists when the White House's requests and dictates would arrive: from … Kellyanne Conway, the former White House adviser, on choirs and communion in faith communities, or suggestions from Ivanka Trump, the president's daughter and aide, on schools," reports the Times.

According to McGowan, the CDC routinely watered down its guidance under pressure from the Trump political team. ... “Every time that the science clashed with the messaging, messaging won,” McGowan said

McGown also called out the White House for its treatment of Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who angered Trump this past February when she publicly acknowledged that the novel coronavirus would become a major public health crisis.

"There's not a single thing that she said that didn't come true," McGowan said. "Is it more important to have her telling the world and the American public what to be prepared for, or is it just to say, 'All is well?'"

----------------------------------

Head of White House security office has his right foot amputated because of severe COVID-19 and is facing 'staggering medical bills,' new report says
https://www.businessinsider.com/head-of-white-house-security-office-coronavirus-amputation-medical-bills-2020-12?amp

The head of the White House security office, Crede Bailey, had a part of his lower right leg and the big toe of his left foot amputated because of COVID-19, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

Bailey, whose office handles White House credentials and works with the Secret Service, contracted the coronavirus in September. He's been hospitalized for three months but is said to be recovering from the illness.

Friends of Bailey's have raised over $35,000 through a GoFundMe campaign to help pay for his rehabilitation and "staggering" healthcare costs.

... no antibody cocktail for him ...
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 06:07:59 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10245 on: December 16, 2020, 06:17:03 PM »
Beds Filling Halls. Agonizing ER Waits. Burned-Out Staff. Inside Overloaded California Hospitals
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-16/southern-california-hospitals-struggle-covid-19-surge?_amp=true

“The surge is definitely in full force,” Fernandez said. “Sometimes we come in in the morning, and a lot of the areas are just full of COVID patients already.”

To the outside world, the numbers may be little more than statistics, but inside Southern California’s hospitals, conditions are rapidly deteriorating as beds fill up and workers burn out.

Annel Meza, an emergency room nurse at Riverside University Health Systems, said hospitalizations are increasing so quickly that staff has resorted to putting patients’ beds in the hallway.

“Sometimes there’s no beds at all,” she said.

One patient, who was admitted Dec. 1, was in the hall for four days. Wait times in the emergency room have grown so long that some have given up and left, thinking if they had to wait that long, they must not be that sick, Meza said.

The number of patients has increased so steadily that the Riverside hospital has had to apply for a waiver to bypass state-mandated staff-patient ratios, spokeswoman Heather Jackson said.

More than 180 hospitals across the state have applied for staffing waivers, according to the California Department of Public Health — a testament to how radically the latest COVID-19 surge has upended operations.

Adding even one extra patient not only contributes to staff burnout, it also sets a dangerous precedent: The more patients a doctor or nurse has, the less care each gets. One widely cited study found that each additional patient a nurse has is associated with a 7% increase in mortality.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12387650/

Staffing shortages are exacerbated by workforce dropout, Spetz said. After gruelingly long shifts, healthcare workers’ daily rituals include showers, laundry and disinfectant at home in an attempt to protect their loved ones. Spetz said many have left their jobs because they or family members have contracted COVID-19 or because they’re worried about the ongoing health risk.

The Southern California region, which includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, has 1.7% of all its ICU beds available, according to state data, down from 7% just days ago. As of Tuesday, Los Angeles County, with a population over 10 million, had fewer than 100 ICU beds, while Riverside County was at 0% capacity.

At Dignity Health California Hospital Medical Center in downtown Los Angeles, so many patients have arrived in the last two weeks that doctors’ mid-morning rounds have been substantially shortened, said Dr. Simon Mates, the ICU’s co-director. Instead of the usual five or 10 minutes spent with each patient, they’re down to two or three minutes apiece, he said.

In San Bernardino, the surge came so rapidly that county officials have limited ambulance calls, a decision prompted by skyrocketing ICU and hospital numbers.

At least one hospital in the county is already feeling the strain: Dr. Hari Reddy said that St. Bernardine Medical Center’s 47-bed ICU has been steadily filling in recent weeks and that the flood of COVID-19 patients is forcing some doctors to make difficult decisions.

“There’s been times when we’ve had multiple patients having cardiac arrest at the same time, and we’ve had to really triage to figure out which patient to resuscitate first,” said Reddy, the hospital’s intensivist medical director. “If there’s multiple emergencies, I try to gauge which patient I can make the most difference in.”

What’s happening now — the so-called third wave of the pandemic — is far worse than what most hospitals experienced earlier this year. The first wave was characterized by clusters, such as nursing home patients who became sick during outbreaks, Reddy said. Now he’s seeing the virus in young people in their 20s and 30s, and quite often infecting entire families.

Quote
...“To see the fear in their faces, the isolation — I don’t think people understand what they’re in for if they develop severe COVID”

“A universal factor in a lot of these patients is they typically had somebody in their family that had the disease as well,” he said. “It’s spreading through the households.” ... Thanksgiving gatherings were a flashpoint for the most recent surge. Christmas may be as well.

Ambulances waiting at hospitals for six hours

In Los Angeles County, emergency rooms are so crowded that some ambulances have been forced to wait as long as six hours to offload patients, said Cathy Chidester, director of the Los Angeles County Emergency Medical Services Agency. Some patients arriving by ambulance are asked to sit in the emergency department lobby so the ambulance can depart.

... “You can spend the majority of your day really fighting to keep some of these patients alive,” Pedraza said. “Seeing their suffering and their family’s suffering, and then walking out the door and listening to news about how this isn’t a big deal, and how wearing a mask is infringing on constitutional rights, and how this is a hoax … it takes its toll.”

---------------------------------------

‘People Are Going To Die That Don’t Need To Die’: Available ICU Capacity Drops To 1.7% In Southern California Region
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/12/16/coronavirus-southern-california-icu-capacity-1-7/amp/

LOS ANGELES (CBSLA) — Hospitals across Southern California Tuesday went into crisis mode as the COVID-19 pandemic rages across the 11-county region and intensive care unit availability dropped to 1.7%.

In Los Angeles County, fewer than 100 ICU beds remain and, for the second consecutive day, the 600-bed L.A. County+USC Medical Center has no ICU beds available.

“Just too many patients needing critical care services for COVID, and so there is really no help to be had from our neighboring hospitals because we are all suffering the same problem,” Mahajan said.

In Ventura County, only 1% of ICU beds were available Tuesday night, prompting the county’s public health officer to again warn residents about the consequences of not following local health orders.

“If a hospital were a car, it would be rattling right now,” Dr. Robert Levin said. “The numbers are getting to be astronomical. People are going to die that don’t need to die.”

And the situation is not much better in the Inland Empire or Orange County.

In Riverside County, there are zero ICU beds available and Loma Linda University Health System said all of its San Bernardino County hospital ICU beds were full.

Orange County, again, set a record for the number of people in hospitals

-------------------------------------

California is seeking more medical staff from overseas, perhaps from as far away as Australia, while opening field hospitals to care for non-ICU patients in places such as Costa Mesa, Porterville, Sacramento and Imperial.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 06:22:07 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10246 on: December 16, 2020, 08:29:51 PM »
Can NZ and Australian doctors and nurses be 'borrowed' (allowing their SH credentials to be deemed acceptable) these next few months while affluent NH countries demonstrate their inability to protect their citizens from all foes virological (the biological sort [and the electronic sort in the US])?   In April, greater NYC borrowed nurses and doctors from around the US, but that's not an option these days. 

Can European medical practitioners practice across national boarders?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10247 on: December 16, 2020, 09:29:39 PM »
Emails Show Former Trump Health Appointee Advocated Herd Immunity Strategy
https://www.axios.com/trump-herd-immunity-coronavirus-emails-ed33f289-e178-40a1-9bec-27c6d55c2f2e.html

A former senior Health and Human Services adviser advocated this summer to let young and middle-aged Americans become infected with COVID-19 in order to develop "herd immunity," according to emails released Wednesday by the House committee overseeing the federal government's coronavirus response.

https://coronavirus.house.gov/news/press-releases/chairman-clyburn-releases-memo-new-evidence-political-interference-pandemic

Without a vaccine, achieving herd immunity — in which widespread outbreaks are prevented because enough people in a community are immune to a disease — would result in widespread fatalities and likely overwhelm health systems.

--------------------------------------------

Chairman Clyburn Releases Memo With New Evidence Of Political Interference In Pandemic Response
https://coronavirus.house.gov/news/press-releases/chairman-clyburn-releases-memo-new-evidence-political-interference-pandemic

Trump Administration Official: “We Want” Americans “Infected

Washington, D.C. (December 16, 2020) — Today, Rep. James E. Clyburn, Chairman of the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, sent a memo to Members of the Select Subcommittee citing new documents obtained in the Subcommittee’s investigation of political interference by senior Trump Administration appointees in the work of career officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  The documents show that officials at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) repeatedly discussed pursuing a “herd immunity” strategy and were aware that Administration policies were causing an increase in virus cases—but tried to hide the true danger of the virus and blame career scientists for the Administration’s failures.

“The documents obtained by the Select Subcommittee show a pernicious pattern of political interference by Administration officials.:

Quote
... As the virus spread through the country, these officials callously wrote, ‘who cares’ and ‘we want them infected.’  They privately admitted they ‘always knew’ the President’s policies would cause a ‘rise’ in cases, and they plotted to blame the spread of the virus on career scientists.”

HHS Senior Advisor Paul Alexander strategized with other top officials from HHS, CDC, and FDA about pursuing a herd immunity strategy in response to the coronavirus pandemic.  For example, on July 3, 2020, Dr. Alexander wrote:  “So the bottom line is if it is more infectiouness [sic] now, the issue is who cares?  If it is causing more cases in young, my word is who cares…as long as we make sensible decisions, and protect the elderely [sic] and nursing homes, we must go on with life….who cares if we test more and get more positive tests…”

On July 4, 2020, Dr. Alexander wrote:  “There is no other way, we need to establish herd, and it only comes about allowing the non-high risk groups expose themselves to the virus.  PERIOD.”

Also on July 4, 2020, Dr. Alexander stated:  “Infants, kids, teens, young people, young adults, middle aged with no conditions etc. have zero to little risk….so we use them to develop herd…we want them infected…”

On July 24, 2020, Dr. Alexander wrote to FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn and HHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Michael Caputo:  “it may be that it will be best if we open up and flood the zone and let the kids and young folk get infected” as a strategy to get “natural immunity…natural exposure.”

Contradicting the rosy public statements from the White House and HHS, Dr. Alexander admitted privately that the Administration was aware its policies would not only fail to stop the spread of the virus, but would lead to an increase in cases.  For example, on June 24, 2020, Dr. Alexander wrote:  “There is a rise in cases due to testing and also simultaneously due to the relaxing of restrictions, less social distancing.  We always knew as you relax and open up, cases will rise…”

On May 30, 2020, Dr. Alexander urged colleagues to suppress CDC hospitalization data showing about the risk posed by the virus to minority communities, because it could hurt President Trump in the 2020 election.  He wrote:  “if the communication is left with just the statement that minoring [sic] groups are at higher risk then on its face this is very accurate, however, in this election cycle that is the kind of statement coming from CDC that the media and Democrat [sic] antagonists will use against the president.”

On June 24, 2020, Dr. Alexander discussed the “key message” to communicate to the public regarding the pandemic, noting:  “We need also to tout the good stories as we know of elderly with serious conditions who get it and survive…this is key to tell…

On July 3, 2020, Dr. Alexander complained that Dr. Fauci had warned the public to “expect a dramatic increase in spread.”  Dr. Alexander wrote:  “He just wont stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  He cant keep quiet….and he is not on the same page of the govn….does he think he is the President???”  One week later, President Trump and other White House officials publicly attacked Dr. Fauci.

Paul Alexander was the former adviser to HHS assistant public affairs secretary Michael Caputo, who took a leave of absence after accusing CDC scientists of gathering a "resistance unit" against President Trump.

On December 10, 2020, Chairman Clyburn wrote to HHS Secretary Azar and CDC Director Redfield seeking immediate compliance with the Select Subcommittee’s investigation after a witness revealed that career CDC officials were directed to destroy evidence of political interference in the CDC’s work, and HHS cancelled four other witness interviews.

HHS Secretary Alex Azar and other Trump officials have insisted that herd immunity was never the administration's strategy, though the president suggested in September that the virus would disappear when people develop "a herd mentality."

https://coronavirus.house.gov/sites/democrats.coronavirus.house.gov/files/12-16-2020-Release-All-Files.pdf

https://coronavirus.house.gov/sites/democrats.coronavirus.house.gov/files/Staff%20Report%20re%20Political%20Messaging%20and%20Herd%20Immunity.pdf

---------------------------------------------



--------------------------------------------

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Will Quarantine After Exposure to Covid
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/16/secretary-of-state-mike-pompeo-will-quarantine-after-exposure-to-covid.html

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will quarantine himself after coming into contact with a person who tested positive for the coronavirus, the State Department said.

A spokesperson for the department did not identify when, where or with whom Pompeo was exposed, but added in a statement that the Cabinet secretary has tested negative for the virus.

Pompeo had canceled a speaking appearance scheduled for Tuesday at an indoor holiday party at the State Department, according to The Washington Post.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 11:33:44 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10248 on: December 16, 2020, 11:28:01 PM »


Many hospitals and ICUs across the U.S. are at or near their highest capacity levels since the start of the pandemic. On Tuesday, 112,816 people were hospitalized with Covid-19, according to the Covid Tracking Project, setting another record for that metric. Hospitalizations were up 7.9% over the past week and have increased nearly 61% over the past month.

https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

A model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasted the need for 154,835 hospital beds by Jan. 27, its predicted peak of the recent surge, and 38,004 ICU beds on Jan. 26. Hospitalizations tend to lag new Covid-19 infections by at least several weeks.

Last week, New Mexico issued two new public-health emergency orders suspending nonessential surgeries and activating “crisis care” standards.

... Russell Judd, chief executive of Kern Medical in Bakersfield, Calif., said Tuesday that his trauma center had two empty beds in the ICU, not because there was no demand for them but because he didn’t have enough nurses to staff them. ... What’s unprecedented is that we're offering $175 an hour, and can't find a nurse that can come work for us.”

----------------------------------------

California Opens COVID-19 Field Hospitals Across the State
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-16/facing-a-a-grim-set-of-weeks-california-opens-covid-field-hospitals-across-the-state?_amp=true

California is opening temporary field hospitals to help with overflow patients as COVID-19 surges fill intensive care units across the state.

The field hospitals will care for non-ICU patients in places such as Costa Mesa, Porterville, Sacramento and Imperial; other facilities are on standby status in Riverside, Richmond, Fresno, San Diego and San Francisco.

On Tuesday, the California Department of Public Health said available ICU capacity in Southern California was just 1.7%, down from 2.7% a day earlier. The situation was particularly grim in Riverside County, which was at zero available ICU capacity as of Tuesday. Available ICU capacity in the San Joaquin Valley was also effectively maxed out and has been fluctuating between zero and 1.6% since Saturday.

Fresno County has nearly 1 million people, but there were only 16 available ICU beds Monday. A couple of that region’s larger hospitals have zero available ICU beds, and one has been forced to keep five ICU patients in the emergency department.

Besides an alternative care site in Porterville that opened Monday, another staffed 50-bed care site is being opened this week next to Community Regional Medical Center in Fresno. That site can take patients from in-patient wards, freeing up space in the step-down units where critically ill patients recover, which in turn frees up space in the ICU.

Last week, a site was opened at Sleep Train Arena, the former home of the NBA’s Sacramento Kings. That care site, which has 20 beds available and a capacity of up to 244 beds, is currently treating seven patients. An additional 23 patients have filled available beds at Imperial Valley College, which has space for an additional 100 beds. The state also has a site for patients from the California Department of State Hospitals, which has 43 of 46 available beds filled to treat patients.

Dr. Rais Vohra, Fresno County’s interim public health officer, said Tuesday that he expected “a grim set of weeks before and after the new year, just given the trends that we’re seeing…. Unfortunately, we’ve just got a lot of infections and a lot of ongoing transmissions [and] we’re still very, very hard pressed to try to meet that challenge.”

Dr. Mark Ghaly, the California health and human services secretary, said two weeks ago that California was averaging around 15,000 cases a day, a number that has since more than doubled.

“That should tell you that in the next couple of weeks what our hospitals will be facing, the amount of people knocking on the front door with COVID to the emergency room departments that need an in-patient hospital bed, that might need that ICU bed, are going to increase,” Ghaly said.

----------------------------------------



-----------------------------------------

Health Care Worker In Alaska Has Severe Allergic Reaction to Coronavirus Vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/allergic-reaction-covid-vaccine-alaska/2020/12/16/cf8f5c56-3fcb-11eb-8db8-395dedaaa036_story.html?outputType=amp

A health care worker in Alaska had a serious allergic reaction after getting the new coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech — the first such case reported in the United States since shots began going into arms earlier this week, state officials revealed Wednesday.

The Alaska case echoes two similar cases in the United Kingdom in which health care workers had serious but nonfatal allergic reactions to the vaccine. But the UK workers had histories of severe allergic reactions, whereas the Alaska woman had none, state health officials said. She is now stable and was discharged from a hospital where she was kept overnight.

In randomized trials, Pfizer reported no such allergic responses, known as anaphylaxis, but people with a history of such severe reactions were excluded from participating.

The Alaska health care worker, described as middle-aged but otherwise not identified, began flushing and experiencing other signs of an allergic response about 10 minutes after she received the shot Tuesday afternoon at Bartlett Regional Hospital in Juneau.

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elsewhere ...

Kansas Mayor Resigns Over Mask Mandate Threats
https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/The-Latest-Germany-pushes-for-quick-EU-vaccine-15802168.php

KANSAS — A western Kansas mayor announced Tuesday that she is resigning, effective immediately, because of threats she has received after she publicly supported a mask mandate.

Dodge City Mayor Joyce Warshaw said she was concerned about her safety after being met with aggression, including threats via phone and email, after she was quoted on a USA Today article on Friday supporting the mandate, ]I]The Dodge City Globe[/I] reported.

“I understand people are under a lot of pressure from various things that are happening around society like the pandemic, the politics, the economy, so on and so forth, but I also believe that during these times people are acting not as they normally would,” Warshaw said.

Ford County, where Dodge City is located, has recorded 4,914 cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began, according to the state health department. The county has about 33,600 residents

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Pfizer Vaccine Shipments in California, Alabama Got Too Cold, Vials Had to be Quarantined and Replaced
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-us-quarantines-pfizer-shipments-in-california-alabama-after-transit-anomaly.html

U.S. officials quarantined Pfizer coronavirus vaccine shipments in California and Alabama after they said a transit issue left the vials too cold.

Pfizer’s vaccine requires a storage temperature of around minus 70 degrees Celsius. Vials of the vaccine are stored in trays, which carry a minimum of 975 doses each, according to the CDC.

Gen. Gustave Perna, who oversees logistics for Operation Warp Speed, told reporters that two trays of vaccine that arrived in California had to be returned to Pfizer after the temperature somehow fell to minus 92 degrees Celsius. He said the “anomaly” happened again in Alabama.

“All the way on the other side of the country in Alabama, two trays were received at one location. Same anomaly, went to minus 92. We were able to stop and quarantine the vaccine, stop and get a replacement shipment to Alabama,” he said.

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Health Experts Are Concerned Prisoners Have Been Excluded From Vaccine Plans
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/coronavirus-prisoners-have-been-excluded-from-covid-vaccine-plans.html

Health experts and criminal justice advocates have expressed deep concern over the notable absence of prison populations among coronavirus inoculation plans.

“If the biggest hotspots for Covid are prisons, doesn’t it make sense to inoculate everyone from the guards to the prisoners?” said Ashish Prashar, a justice reform advocate and senior director of global communications at Publicis.

Health officials have been warning about the dangers of epidemics for those incarcerated for years, citing an inability for people to maintain safe physical distancing in correctional facilities because of their confinement in small shared spaces.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

ritter

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10249 on: December 16, 2020, 11:35:05 PM »
Emails Show Former Trump Health Appointee Advocated Herd Immunity Strategy

Jesus. Some in this administration should be tried for murder.