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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 537592 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10300 on: December 19, 2020, 05:42:32 PM »
Heal at Home: L.A. County Outlines Wrenching Moves to Ration Health Care If COVID-19 Hospital Crisis Worsens
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-19/los-angeles-county-coronavirus-hospitalization-surge-rationing?_amp=true

California on Friday broke a record for most coronavirus cases in a single day with 53,326, topping the high last set Wednesday, when 52,330 cases were reported. The record for the number of Californians hospitalized for COVID-19 has been broken for 20 days in a row, rising to 16,019 by Thursday, including 3,447 people in intensive care units. COVID-19 hospitalizations have multiplied sevenfold since late October. Available ICU beds in LA County have dropped to 0%

... “We have not hit an inflection point. It is still picking up faster. The number of people going into the hospitals is pretty much growing more and more every day. It’s not just getting bigger — it’s getting bigger faster,”

... “With the continued rise in cases and the steep slope of the trajectory that shows no sign in bending, we’re essentially screwed,” ... “We’re afraid that California is heading towards New York spring status at this rate.”

With intensive care units full and projections showing big increases in hospitalizations through New Year’s Day, Southern California’s medical system is faced with the prospect of not being able to provide critical medical care to everyone who needs it, which would significantly increase the chances of patients dying as they wait for help.

Already, hospitals are juggling resources to keep up, placing the overflow of ICU patients in other parts of hospitals not designed for them, clearing out critical care wards of patients who can survive elsewhere and in some cases keeping patients on ambulances for as long as eight hours until space is available.

But much more wrenching choices could be ahead as the COVID-19 surge shows no signs of slowing down, and there is little hope for the arrival of an army of additional medical professionals who can greatly expand intensive care unit availability through the end of the year.

Many hospitals are preparing for the possibility of rationing care in the coming weeks as the number of patients exceeds their staffs’ abilities to care for them. A document obtained by The Times outlining how to allocate resources in a crisis situation was recently circulated among doctors at the four hospitals run by Los Angeles County.

The guidelines call for a shift in mindset that is unfamiliar to many medical providers.


Instead of trying everything to save a patient, their goal during a crisis is to save as many patients as possible, meaning those less likely to survive will not receive the same level of care they would have otherwise. Doctors will no longer be pulling out all the stops to save a life but instead strategizing about how to keep as many people as possible from perishing.

Quote
... “Some compromise of standard of care is unavoidable; it is not that an entity, system, or locale chooses to limit resources, it is that the resources are clearly not available to provide care in a regular manner,” the document reads.

... “We have enough beds, supplies, and equipment for now, but we don’t have enough trained staff for the number of patients who need care. We have brought in new staff, retrained and redeployed staff from other areas of the system, and have requested additional resources from the state,” Ghaly wrote. “But these measures are not anticipated to be enough to meet the continuously escalating number of patients that are presenting across the county for care.”



Across the nation, it has already become harder to get admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 symptoms today than it was a couple of months ago, said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, UC San Francisco chair of the department of epidemiology and biostatistics.

This sets up the potential for a deadly Catch-22 already seen in hard-hit places in China, Italy and New York earlier in the pandemic — hospitals so crowded that people have to be extremely sick before they’re admitted, by which time, it may be too late to save them.

...Earlier in the pandemic, some less critically ill patients in hot zones were asked to return home instead of being admitted to an overcrowded hospital. Some people deteriorated at home and later died. Had they been admitted earlier, as would have been the case if the hospital were less crowded, they’d have a much higher chance of surviving.

... “When hospitals start to to get full … we subtly change our thresholds for admitting someone to the hospital,” Bibbins-Domingo said.

Quote
... “So maybe last month, we might say, ‘Wow, you’re not getting enough oxygen. Let’s admit you to the hospital because we want to be more cautious.’ And when a hospital is full, that is a time when we might … say, ‘Well, why don’t we wait another day and see how you do?’”

Symptoms can worsen so quickly that it may be too late to seek help by the time a person realizes something is seriously wrong, or, having been turned away once, some sick patients may second-guess whether they should return to the hospital when they should.

A study published in the summer in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine found that patients admitted to hospitals with fewer ICU beds had a higher risk of death.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768602

The county memo said the shortages are unlikely to be of tools like ventilators but instead of highly trained staff, specifically respiratory therapists, ICU nurses and critical care physicians. Decisions would be made by an appointed triage officer. For patients who receive a scarce resource, they will be given up to two days to see if it is helping, at which point they should be reassessed to determine whether the treatment should continue.

If the patient has not shown improvement or has gotten worse, the resource may be reallocated to someone else.


“The ethical justification … is that in a public health emergency when there are not enough critical care resources for all, the goal of maximizing population outcomes would be jeopardized if patients who were determined to be unlikely to survive were allowed indefinite use of scarce resources,” the document states.

The chief medical officer of L.A. County’s flagship public hospital warned that although the county has not yet suffered catastrophic consequences, it “is now moving towards becoming the epicenter of the pandemic … and if we don’t stop the spread, our hospitals will be overwhelmed.”

“If you have a heart attack, if you get into a car accident, if you fall off a ladder, or have a stroke, we may not have a bed for you,” said Dr. Brad Spellberg, chief medical officer of L.A. County-USC Medical Center.

He added: “I’m not going to sugarcoat this: We are getting crushed.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10301 on: December 19, 2020, 05:44:39 PM »
London Heading Into Harsher Lockdown as New Virus Strain Spreads
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-19/u-k-says-new-covid-strain-can-spread-more-quickly

On Friday evening, Boris Johnson held an emergency meeting with his cabinet to discuss a new strain of COVID-19, and will address the public at 4 p.m. Saturday as the BBC reported that Tier-4 would be added to current a three-tier restriction system that has pubs, restaurants and cinemas closed.

The variant, referred to by scientists as 'VUI - 202012/01', is believed to be causing the faster spread of coronavirus in parts of the South East of England.

Scientists believe the variant to be more infectious than the original strain. A government official told The Guardian: "There are concerns that it is more transmissible than the existing strain - and that sense is hardening."


On Monday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock told the Commons: "Initial analysis suggests this variant is growing faster than the existing variants."

Hancock explained that the World Health Organization had been notified about the mutant strain. At least 60 different local authorities have seen infections from this variant and scientists are currently investigating it in detail, according to the BBC.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55308211

Professor Sir Mark Walport – a member of the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) – said there was a real possibility that the strain could have a “transmission advantage”.

The capital and southeast England will now likely fall under an even harsher set of rules, the BBC said citing unidentified sources. Plans to allow families to see each other over Christmas would also be reviewed in a blow to Johnson’s pledge to allow some households to mix over the holidays.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said that the new variant was spreading faster, and likely behind the alarming climb of case numbers in that part of the country.

“There is no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate or that it affects vaccines and treatments although urgent work is underway to confirm this,” Whitty said. “Given this latest development it is now more vital than ever that the public continue to take action in their area to reduce transmission.”

---------------------------------------------

Covid-19: New Coronavirus Variant Is Identified In UK
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

What do we know about this new SARS-CoV-2 variant?

It’s been snappily named VUI-202012/01 (the first “Variant Under Investigation” in December 2020) and is defined by a set of 17 changes or mutations. One of the most significant is an N501Y mutation in the spike protein that the virus uses to bind to the human ACE2 receptor. Changes in this part of spike protein may, in theory, result in the virus becoming more infectious and spreading more easily between people.

... As of 13 December, 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

Loman explained, “This variant is strongly associated with where we are seeing increasing rates of covid-19. It’s a correlation, but we can’t say it is causation. But there is striking growth in this variant, which is why we are worried, and it needs urgent follow-up and investigation.”

Is the new variant more dangerous?

We don’t know yet. Mutations that make viruses more infectious don’t necessarily make them more dangerous.

Public Health England’s laboratory at Porton Down is currently working to find any evidence that the new variant increases or decreases the severity of disease. Susan Hopkins, joint medical adviser for NHS Test and Trace and Public Health England, said, “There is currently no evidence that this strain causes more severe illness, although it is being detected in a wide geography, especially where there are increased cases being detected.”

... “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10302 on: December 19, 2020, 06:05:09 PM »
Quote
This is down to the new variant spreading rapidly in these areas, [Boris Johnson] says. It doesn’t seem to be more dangerous but does seem to spread more easily and could increase the R by 0.4 or more and up to 70% more transmissible than the original disease, he says.
So that looks pretty hopeless, to try to get to R < 1.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10303 on: December 19, 2020, 06:06:59 PM »
... As of 13 December, 1108 cases with this variant had been identified in the UK in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the true number will be much higher. These cases were predominantly in the south east of England, but there have been recent reports from further afield, including Wales and Scotland.

Nick Loman, professor of microbial genomics and bioinformation at the University of Birmingham, told a briefing by the Science Media Centre on 15 December that the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK,” he said.

Loman explained, “This variant is strongly associated with where we are seeing increasing rates of covid-19. It’s a correlation, but we can’t say it is causation. But there is striking growth in this variant, which is why we are worried, and it needs urgent follow-up and investigation.”

Thats not even a correlation.
Increases in positivity in the seven days to 13th Dec. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Norfolk: 23.6%. Suffolk: 51.1%. Essex: 92.6%.
Rates per 100k/week in the week to 13th Dec
Norfolk:145.2   Suffolk:136.3 Essex: 464.9
If thats driven by a more infectious variant, there's no way it can be a mere 10% in Essex while being 20% in Norfolk. It needs to be something of the region of 75-100% in Essex  (and even higher in Kent) if its driving those differences.






vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10304 on: December 19, 2020, 06:13:04 PM »
Rich, you're comparing the number of genomic samples with total samples ... apples & oranges
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10305 on: December 19, 2020, 06:46:52 PM »
Rich, you're comparing the number of genomic samples with total samples ... apples & oranges

I'm assuming the genomes sequenced are a random sample of cases. You can't blame something being 4x as big on a factor that only turns up in 10% of samples.

There's some rather more consistent data in the press conference the PM has just given but it still looks like a confused cover story for what needed to be done for other reasons. Tier 4 incoming and Xmas is cancelled.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10306 on: December 19, 2020, 07:15:41 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10307 on: December 19, 2020, 08:09:57 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10308 on: December 19, 2020, 09:05:46 PM »
Rich, you're comparing the number of genomic samples with total samples ... apples & oranges

I'm assuming the genomes sequenced are a random sample of cases. You can't blame something being 4x as big on a factor that only turns up in 10% of samples.

There's some rather more consistent data in the press conference the PM has just given but it still looks like a confused cover story for what needed to be done for other reasons. Tier 4 incoming and Xmas is cancelled.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
UK recent data
In the last two weeks the 7 day trailing average of daily new reported cases has risen by 10,000 to nearly 25,000 per day.
Daily deaths have as yet not followed.

And total reported cases now just over 2 million.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10309 on: December 20, 2020, 03:34:03 AM »
The report on the new UK variant.
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563

Quote
Recently a distinct phylogenetic cluster (named lineage B.1.1.7) was detected within the COG-UK surveillance dataset. This cluster has been growing rapidly over the past 4 weeks and since been observed in other UK locations, indicating further spread.

Quote
The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London.

Quote
As of 15th December, there are 1623 genomes in the B.1.1.7 lineage. Of these 519 were sampled in Greater London, 555 in Kent, 545 in other regions of the UK including both Scotland and Wales, and 4 in other countries.

Quote
The B.1.1.7 lineage carries a larger than usual number of virus genetic changes. The accrual of 14 lineage-specific amino acid replacements prior to its detection is, to date, unprecedented in the global virus genomic data for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex fractions quoted upthread were likely based on very small numbers (I suspect 3% = 1 detection in 30 samples) and error bars wide enough to make them completely useless for quantitative analysis. There's enough detections from London though, plus some information about how the level varied over time from the press conference to get some useful analysis.

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1340383349756612610

In London, B.1.1.7 is 28% of genomes in the week of 18th-24th Nov, and 62% in the week of 9th-15th December. That gives R of 1.13 for the rest and 1.66 for B.1.1.7 and enough detections to pull the error bars from sample size down to maybe R of 1.0-1.2 on the rest and 1.4-2.0 on B.1.1.7  Thats horribly consistent with what an infectious advantage should look like.

If B.1.1.7 has got that advantage due to being more infectious rather than jumping into a risky demographic at an opportune moment, its only a couple of months before the rest of the country is in the same mess as the part thats just been put into Tier 4. Yorkshire now (3% B.1.1.7 according to the press conference) is about where London would have been 2 months ago.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10310 on: December 20, 2020, 04:32:35 AM »
Sydney is getting interesting.

The last two days have seen cases number of 23 then 34 and it is looking more of the same today.
28,000 tests per day are being done, social isolation is in place, stay at home etc etc.

What is interesting is the State Premier isn't enforcing mask wearing, she is only strongly advising that people should wear masks.

As a consequence, not many people are doing it.

While I hope they get this small outbreak under control, if it doesn't, there could be an interesting amount of learning to be had concerning the lack of mask wearing in Sydney and a failure to control it quickly.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10311 on: December 20, 2020, 07:52:02 AM »
Thanks Rich, that's helpful.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10312 on: December 20, 2020, 10:08:12 AM »
In the Netherlands we have found at least one sample of the new English strain. The sample is from early december and a few details are not known like did the person actually travel to England or did he or she get it here.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10313 on: December 20, 2020, 11:02:06 AM »
In the Netherlands we have found at least one sample of the new English strain. The sample is from early december and a few details are not known like did the person actually travel to England or did he or she get it here.

The Danes already found nine cases.

And London being such a hub, it will be everywhere.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10314 on: December 20, 2020, 11:50:16 AM »
In the Netherlands we have found at least one sample of the new English strain. The sample is from early december and a few details are not known like did the person actually travel to England or did he or she get it here.

The Danes already found nine cases.

And London being such a hub, it will be everywhere.

I guess so. We suspended all passenger flights to London although it is probably to late. EuroStar is still running and booked full.

Of course realistic infection control is not possible if you do not suspend flights and close the country but this is nearly impossible. And if they had done that there would still be transmission clusters related to workers in slaughterhouses. And of course there was lots of cross border shopping at the Belgian and German borders.

 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10315 on: December 20, 2020, 12:15:30 PM »

If B.1.1.7 has got that advantage due to being more infectious rather than jumping into a risky demographic at an opportune moment, its only a couple of months before the rest of the country is in the same mess as the part thats just been put into Tier 4. Yorkshire now (3% B.1.1.7 according to the press conference) is about where London would have been 2 months ago.

I don’t think it will take that long. The super spreaders are already on their way:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/traffic-tier-4-london-south-east-b1776612.html

 and if you take a look at the MSOA area distribution map there’s a clear correlation between case number increases and the main rail and road routes out of London:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

My home town has a direct rail connection to Euston and our rate, though still pretty low within Tier 2, has taken a tick up in the last couple of days. Last night’s Tier 4 exodus will inevitably add to the R up here around New Year. Not good!

« Last Edit: December 20, 2020, 12:27:35 PM by silkman »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10316 on: December 20, 2020, 05:11:56 PM »
Here’s what you need to know about the new coronavirus variant, now confirmed in SA


https://www.businessinsider.co.za/what-we-know-about-the-new-strain-of-the-coronavirus-2020-12

A new variant of the coronavirus has been detected in South Africa, health minister Zweli Mkhize announced on Friday.

The variant was identified by South African genomics scientists from across the country, led by the Kwazulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP). They have been analysing coronavirus genetic samples from different parts of South Africa since the start of the pandemic, and in recent weeks these samples were dominated by a new variant. 

Mkhize said the new variant is believed to be driving South Africa’s second coronavirus wave.

South African authorities believe the new variant spread from Nelson Mandela Bay through the Eastern Cape, to the Garden Route, and into KwaZulu-Natal.

The new lineage, named 501.V2, has between 10 and 20 new mutations not seen in the coronavirus tested in South Africa before end-September.

The South African variant appears to be spreading more quickly, with higher viral loads than the original virus.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10317 on: December 20, 2020, 05:57:14 PM »
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896

NERVTAG minutes from 18th Dec. NERVTAG is the expert committee on New and Emerging Virus Threats so this is the advice the government based its action on yesterday.

Quote
In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates
a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants.

There are multiple lines of evidence, all of which have potential issues, but all pointing the same way.

Quote
Few cases of this variant have been reported internationally but one confirmed
export from the UK to Australia has been reported. It was noted that other countries
have lower sequencing capability than the UK.

If thats the one thats escaped recently, better hit it real hard now, because it might be substantially more difficult to contain than previous outbreaks.

Quote
NERVTAG concluded that there are currently insufficient data to draw any conclusion on:
o Underlying mechanism of increased transmissibility (e.g. increased viral load,
tissue distribution of virus replication, serial interval etc)
o The age distribution of cases
o Disease severity: 4 deaths in around 1000 cases have been identified but further
work is needed to compare this fatality rate with comparable data sets.
o Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of
the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct
from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915
subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate
with comparable data sets.

Better data on these issues is expect in the next week or two (at least for NERVTAG, its normally a month or two before the minutes are released, rather than the day after the ministers see them)

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10318 on: December 20, 2020, 06:34:02 PM »
Here’s what you need to know about the new coronavirus variant, now confirmed in SA


https://www.businessinsider.co.za/what-we-know-about-the-new-strain-of-the-coronavirus-2020-12

A new variant of the coronavirus has been detected in South Africa, health minister Zweli Mkhize announced on Friday.

The variant was identified by South African genomics scientists from across the country, led by the Kwazulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP). They have been analysing coronavirus genetic samples from different parts of South Africa since the start of the pandemic, and in recent weeks these samples were dominated by a new variant. 

Mkhize said the new variant is believed to be driving South Africa’s second coronavirus wave.

South African authorities believe the new variant spread from Nelson Mandela Bay through the Eastern Cape, to the Garden Route, and into KwaZulu-Natal.

The new lineage, named 501.V2, has between 10 and 20 new mutations not seen in the coronavirus tested in South Africa before end-September.

The South African variant appears to be spreading more quickly, with higher viral loads than the original virus.

Thanks for this.   Found another article from South Africa:

Second wave driven by new Covid-19 mutation that affects younger people
https://www.iol.co.za/weekend-argus/news/second-wave-driven-by-new-covid-19-mutation-that-affects-younger-people-4ff4fa48-132d-4456-a094-8c1c1516ab0d

"Cape Town - The new Covid-19 variant spreading across the country is more contagious and appears to affect young people more than the previous strain and authorities warn additional restrictions may be necessary.

The Health Department has confirmed that the mutated strain, known as SARS-CoV-2 or termed 501.v2 variant has “been identified in almost 200 samples“ collected from 50 different hospitals and clinics in the Western and Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

On Friday night, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize announced that researchers had discovered a new mutation to the virus – similar to one found in Britain this week – that he said seemed to affect young people more than strains that had previously been circulating..."
____________________________________________________________________

Covid seems to have a lower intrinsic tendency to mutate than, say, influenza virus.  But this emergence of two distinct mutations in different nations that both confer increased transmissibiliy  shouldn't be surprising.  While the virus itself may be slow to mutate, each individual person infected is another opportunity for new mutations to develop.  When case counts are high, mutation rates will also increase.

If the world had started with a competent response to the virus, these more dangerous mutations would likely never have arisen.  This makes me very angry.

We can only hope that strains will not evolve to resist the antibodies generated by the vaccines.  I'm not optimistic on that.



vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10319 on: December 20, 2020, 07:12:10 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1340553044031844354

Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois
I felt it may be helpful to provide an update on the new #COVID19 lineages in the UK and in SA that might both be more contagious than any #SARSCoV2 in circulation until recently. Those comments should be considered preliminary as the evidence available to me is still sketchy.

Both lineages have accumulated an unusually large number of mutations / deletions. A plausible explanation is a persistent infection in an immunocompromised patient. There is earlier evidence that such persistent infection leads to fast viral evolution.

All the mutations /deletions carried by the two strains have been observed before in other lineages. For example, both carry N501Y in the spike protein, a mutation that was first observed in Brazil in April and has remained at low frequency until recently.

Individual mutations do not seem to affect transmission significantly. For example, the best studied candidate mutation for increased transmission, D614G, arose independently in different genetic lineages but only one of those increased in frequency.

Deletions might have a more important effect on transmission than mutations, but are more difficult to study. Most the genomic data is in the form of 'assembled genomes', with raw reads often not available. Deletions were sometimes miscalled /overlooked in genome assemblies.

The UK / SA strains carry a series of deletions, in particular one at position 69/70 in the spike protein. While this deletion has been seen in other lineages before, it may play a role in transmission. Another deletion in the spike protein (144/145) might play a role.

I can think of three main, non-mutually exclusive, preliminary hypotheses explaining the rise in frequency of the UK and SA lineages.

1. The two lineages increased in frequency following a major founder effect. They were at the right time in the right place (i.e. major 'super spreader' event), and are not necessarily intrinsically more transmissible.

2. Both lineages have acquired a combination of mutations and deletions not found together in the same genetic background before. In conjunction, some mutations / deletions make the lineage intrinsically more transmissible, for example by increasing viral load in the host.

3. Both lineages may, at least in part, bypass immunisation caused by prior #SARSCoV2 infection (immune-escape). Despite not being more contagious, the lineages might have risen in frequency by infecting a larger pool of hosts (including a fraction of previously infected).

Hypothesis 2 (intrinsically more contagious) feels most plausible given the available evidence. Though, the necessary data is not available to me at this stage for any formal assessment. Data from Denmark where the UK lineage is also widespread would be most useful.

Additional evidence that feels essential is the relative disease severity caused by the new strains (which at this stage does not point to more severe symptoms), as well as the proportion of putative and confirmed reinfections caused by the new UK and SA lineages.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10320 on: December 20, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »
instantly on TV news: all sea, air or train links between Great Britain and France are interrupted from midnight for a period of 48 hours. After this period, the tests will be compulsory to enter France
La cravate est un accessoire permettant d'indiquer la direction du cerveau de l'homme.
Un petit croquis en dit plus qu'un grand discours, mais beaucoup moins qu'un gros chèque.
Pierre DAC

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10321 on: December 20, 2020, 09:39:46 PM »
Oh to be ruled by incompetents .. I'm sure Trump is personally responsible for a couple of thousand deaths  a day in the USA while here in the UK Johnston and his bumbling idiots have added 10's of thousands to the total unnecessarily .
  Now it looks like the last few days and hours has allowed many thousands to move within the UK and abroad . I don't think Europe and the world will rejoice at the spreader event of the season !
  Happy Christmas ! b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10322 on: December 20, 2020, 09:51:12 PM »
Oh to be ruled by incompetents .. I'm sure Trump is personally responsible for a couple of thousand deaths  a day in the USA while here in the UK Johnston and his bumbling idiots have added 10's of thousands to the total unnecessarily .
  Now it looks like the last few days and hours has allowed many thousands to move within the UK and abroad . I don't think Europe and the world will rejoice at the spreader event of the season !
  Happy Christmas ! b.c.

At least the UK is sequencing many thousands per week.

Maybe the competency of the British people can also be questioned. And of Westerners in general (maybe with an exception for Norwegians and Fins).

On top of that the mutation, that increases the R-number with 0.4 so that R < 1 is a bit of an illusion now.
 
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SARS-CoV-2-variant-multiple-spike-protein-mutations-United-Kingdom.pdf

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10323 on: December 20, 2020, 09:56:51 PM »
instantly on TV news: all sea, air or train links between Great Britain and France are interrupted from midnight for a period of 48 hours. After this period, the tests will be compulsory to enter France

Practice run for Brexit  :o

Here on the other side of the pond 8.5 million are spreading the virus to and fro as they spread holiday cheer by air, car and rail.

The New Year is going to be one hell of a year  :(

Thx Tor
« Last Edit: December 20, 2020, 10:58:36 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10324 on: December 20, 2020, 10:50:29 PM »
The H69/V70 deletion, in which a small part of the spike is removed has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink.

Work by Prof Ravi Gupta at the University of Cambridge has suggested this mutation increases infectivity two-fold in lab experiments.

Studies by the same group suggest the mutation makes antibodies from the blood of survivors less effective at attacking the virus.


"It is rapidly increasing, that's what's worried government, we are worried, most scientists are worried," Prof Gupta said.

Neutralising antibodies drive Spike mediated SARS-CoV-2 evasion
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927v2.full.pdf

-------------------------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/1340349639946629120

MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test.



Numerous other mutations are circulating but are invisible to this PCR test. So genome sequencing of viral samples is very important.

Trump: ... Obviously everything would be fine if only we'd just stopped testing
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10325 on: December 20, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1340702230962466817/photo/1

London doubling time averaged over Dec is now just 6 days.

However if look at the linked graph closely, you'll see the doubling time has been steadily dropping. Thats another piece of data thats horribly consistent with what happens when a more transmissible strain invades a population.

...

One of the deletions in B.1.1.7 affects one of the areas typically targetted by PCR tests. Consequently, its spread is actually visible in some PCR data as well the genome sequences.

The data on spread in London comes from the UK infection survey, which tests for 3 genes, one of which is knocked out in B.1.1.7 so the spread shows up as an increasing frequency of PCR tests showing 2 hits on the other 2 targets and a miss on the affected gene.

Not much use for spotting it early, because that deletion happens in other strains too, but once B.1.1.7 has become a dominant variant, PCR test data can show how its moving in the population.


pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10326 on: December 20, 2020, 11:14:23 PM »
NERVTAG minutes

Quote
Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which
suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.

So it is likely adding much more to R than 0.4 (which would have been difficult enough).

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10327 on: December 21, 2020, 04:19:05 AM »
A question based on my lines of thinking and I am wondering if this thinking is basically correct.

The new strain is more contagious and delivers more viral load per spreading event.

The old strain makes a person sicker the larger the initial viral load is. (I know there are many variables here, but overall, this is my basic understanding)

So.... given the new strain spreads easier and delivers more viral load, I have a feeling that this also means it will make more people sicker and in turn end up killing more people as well.

If this line of thinking is correct, this new strain is significantly worse than the original.
So far it appears the vaccines in product will work on the new strain.

But... even though people keep saying it mutates slowly, I keep thinking that in the first year of a new virus with a small start it has demonstrate its ability to jump to other species and back to humans with mutations and has now developed a new strain.
I am not overly convinced it is a virus that has a slow mutation rate.... the observations I am seeing suggest it can and will mutate much faster than many are thinking. Maybe not flu like, but not far off it.... and if the species jumping happens more often, mutations that work around the vaccine is almost a given within the next 12 months.

Covid is a really impressive beast.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10328 on: December 21, 2020, 11:36:40 AM »
So.... given the new strain spreads easier and delivers more viral load, I have a feeling that this also means it will make more people sicker and in turn end up killing more people as well.

Not necessarily. The real reason for most hospitalizations and deaths is that the immune response by the body is excessive.

But yes, higher viral load does not sound good.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10329 on: December 21, 2020, 12:16:55 PM »
The discovery of the VUI-202012/01 Covid 19 strain in SE England has put the UK at the centre of the latest twist in the ongoing nightmare we’re facing as we approach the end of the year. I’m sure this will result in the UK being regarded with a certain sense of approbrium by many as this latest new but probably inevitable development threatens a rapid return to some form of “normality”.

However, it would be appropriate to recognise that the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium is actually doing a fantastic job in tracking the genomics of the virus by sequencing 10% or more of positive test samples generated across the country to trigger a political response that will hopefully limit the spread of the new variant.

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_20-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations_final.pdf

Our politicians and to a lesser extent our statisticians and disease modellers may not have covered themselves with glory over the past 12 months but our public and privately funded bioscience community have really played their part in understanding the nature of the challenge and plotting a route through it.

They and their colleagues around the world have my admiration as a long retired bioscientist.

Keep safe!


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10330 on: December 21, 2020, 12:46:28 PM »

MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test.




Vox Mundi,

Do you know if this graph has been produced with London data?

If so, I want to give a guesstimate of the probability of this variant being not contained and almost everywhere in the rest of the world:

Zero.

Not wanting to be alarmist, but this being around for weeks and many countries keeping a constant flow of passengers to/from London ... anyway  :-\

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10331 on: December 21, 2020, 01:00:08 PM »
However, it would be appropriate to recognise that the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium is actually doing a fantastic job in tracking the genomics of the virus by sequencing 10% or more of positive test samples generated across the country

From a new article in Science mag:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

Quote
Other countries may well have the variant as well, says epidemiologist William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; the United Kingdom may just have picked it up first because that country has the most sophisticated SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring in the world. Many countries have little or no sequencing.

Plus the queue for the train to Paris:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10332 on: December 21, 2020, 01:16:45 PM »
A question based on my lines of thinking and I am wondering if this thinking is basically correct.

The new strain is more contagious and delivers more viral load per spreading event.

It is more contagious but that is not the same as more viral load per spreading event. In a way that load depends on the circumstances more then the virus.

So i do not think your conclusion is correct.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10333 on: December 21, 2020, 01:46:17 PM »
Rodius did not just make the statement about higher viral loads up, it is a direct quotation from SH's post #10316 about South Africa:

"The South African variant appears to be spreading more quickly, with higher viral loads than the original virus."

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10334 on: December 21, 2020, 02:32:44 PM »
Thanks, i somehow already forgot we had 2 new ones and just looked at the London strain.

The SA claim is not 100% certain although they have hints:

Q The new variant of infection leads is associated with a higher viral load. Does this mean
a higher rate of transmission?
A We do not know for sure that it is associated with a higher viral load, but some of our findings
suggest that might be the case. We need to gather more information to help us understand this.
Overall there is some evidence that this new variant might be being transmitted more readily than
other variants, although the mechanism of this remains to be fully worked out.

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/New-Variant-of-SARS-CoV-2_Frequently-Asked-Questions_v9_19-December-2020_Final.pdf

One important point: viral load is amount of virus in the blood which is not the same as ´more viral load per spreading event´.






Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10335 on: December 21, 2020, 02:50:30 PM »
I have posted some piece of opinion on Masks at the Masks thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.msg296309.html#msg296309

While I plan on getting vaccinated as soon as I can, I feel worried of perceiving the same synchronicity in the message that "COVID-19 vaccines are perfectly safe" than I noted in March with their message "Masks are not recommended, in fact, discouraged".

It can be a plain lie, but the world Elites want to leave the Corona Crisis behind, and I wouldn't be surprised that it is cutting corners and at all costs. Also, there is a succulent business behind the vaccines.

Let's cross the fingers that the vaccines are really safe, I don't trust any government or health institution in telling me so. I just close the eyes and cross the fingers.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2020, 02:55:38 PM by sailor »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10336 on: December 21, 2020, 02:52:54 PM »
Actually, the viral load for COVID-19 is not measured by the blood level.  It's measured by how much COVID-19 is found from performing a nasal swab.


See The Lancet Article:   https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30354-4/fulltext

Quote
We prospectively evaluated nasopharyngeal swab samples for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time RT-PCR (Roche cobas 6800; Roche, Basel, Switzerland). Positive samples were assessed by a laboratory-developed quantitative RT-PCR test approved for clinical use5 and viral loads were calculated with standard curves (full method provided in the appendix [pp 1–2]).

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10337 on: December 21, 2020, 02:59:39 PM »
instantly on TV news: all sea, air or train links between Great Britain and France are interrupted from midnight for a period of 48 hours. After this period, the tests will be compulsory to enter France

Just a reminder that those tests are still approximately only 70-80% accurate.  So when they get a false negative, the new strain is going to spread into France.

SARS-CoV-2 Nasopharyngeal Swab Testing—False-Negative Results From a Pervasive Anatomical Misconception
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2770786

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10338 on: December 21, 2020, 03:06:06 PM »
kassy, harpy

Viral load, also known as viral burden, viral titre or viral titer, is a numerical expression of the quantity of virus in a given volume of fluid.

copies/mL - milliliter (milliltre) for those who can't spell  :P

That can be any fluid: blood, urine, sputum, water, sewage, etc.

The numbers may be different in blood or nasal mucus because of viral distribution, but the term 'viral load' is used in both.

If you want a reference ... I worked in clinical labs for 40 years ... This is basic knowledge.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2020, 03:21:36 PM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10339 on: December 21, 2020, 03:31:25 PM »
Thanks!

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10340 on: December 21, 2020, 03:41:54 PM »
A question based on my lines of thinking and I am wondering if this thinking is basically correct.

The new strain is more contagious and delivers more viral load per spreading event.

It is more contagious but that is not the same as more viral load per spreading event. In a way that load depends on the circumstances more then the virus.

So i do not think your conclusion is correct.

This might not be true but it is also possible that the virus has higher hospitalisation and fatality rates for other reasons.

We don't have enough data on who has which virus to look at case hospitalisation rates(chr) and case fatality rates(cfr) for each group and be able to compare. So I am thinking that leaves us looking at whether chr and cfr for everyone is increasing over last couple of months or so. This analysis is weak because if the proportion of cases being detected (case ascertainment ca) is changing this could give a misleading view and there are other conflating factors as well: Too busy preparing for Christmas to go get a test? Changes in delays to hospitalisation and death from case detection?

My analysis is probably also poor so take my results with a good dose of scepticism. I am a little concerned that my results are not reliable but also that the vague indication given is not particularly good.

On deaths:
7 day deaths fallen to minimum of 411 from 487 so only fallen to 84% of last maximum. A simple average of cases 4 to 28 days previous fell to 71% of the maximum.

On hospitalisations the best delay I have found is to compare 7 day average hospitalisations to cases for the 7 days that are 2 days earlier. With this going back to July chr was high 0.2 I am thinking there was low CA back then this fell to a minimum of 0.045 on 10 October and has since risen to 0.095.

The cfr reached a low of 0.011 on 9 October and has since increased to 0.025. (Infection fatality rate will be considerably lower)

Case ascertainment could have changed a little but seems unlikely to account for a doubling in chr or more than that in cfr. Perhaps 9/10 October is too early for this mutation to be the culprit, maybe this is just autumn effects.

It could well be some combination of CA, autumn and the mutated virus being nastier and other factors including my analysis being poor so it is only vague hint that mutated virus could be worse but any indication of virus getting nastier is not good news. 

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10341 on: December 21, 2020, 04:23:24 PM »
Rodius did not just make the statement about higher viral loads up, it is a direct quotation from SH's post #10316 about South Africa:

"The South African variant appears to be spreading more quickly, with higher viral loads than the original virus."

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SARS-CoV-2-variant-multiple-spike-protein-mutations-United-Kingdom.pdf

They found that the new variant has often lower ct (cycle threshold) values, so higher concentrations. My guess is about 2 x 2 = 4.

Quote
  • PCR ct values: which suggest a decrease of ct value of around 2 associated with
    the new variant.
  • Viral load inferred from number of unique genome reads: which suggests 0.5
    increase in median log10 inferred viral load in Y501 versus N501.

And 0.5 in log10 would be a factor of 3.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10342 on: December 21, 2020, 04:56:17 PM »
Quote
Too busy preparing for Christmas to go get a test?
Why get a test at all unless you plan on spending time with people?

Since mid-March I've not spent much time with anybody but my wife.  Our children (and their partners) have come by a few times, properly masked or separated by the porch screen plus 2 meters.  Three times a week I buy groceries or pick up take out.  Even so, in recent weeks I've had some breathing 'problems' (lots of yawning in order to get a full breath), but it hasn't affected walking (about 20 km one day).  Would I test positive for the antibodies?  It doesn't matter: I treat everybody (except my wife) as if I did or they did.

My brother-in-law didn't get testing when he was certain he had COVID-19 (a medium case, if there is such a thing).  (He later tested positive for having antibodies when he traveled internationally.)

Are all those lines of people getting tested (in fume-spewing FF cars, often  :() planning on spending time with others or regularly work with others?  Are they just doing it 'for fun'?  Do they think they might be sick?  Do they know why people get tested (outside of airports ...)?

It seems to me going someplace to get a test is one more trip that puts me in a place where COVID-19 may be present.  Why do that?

(Disclaimer:  I don't have young kids or grandchildren, and I work from home; my siblings are taking care of our mom (across the country).  And as a cousin who works from home wrote, "For an introvert like me these times are easy, but my extrovert son is having a hard time."
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10343 on: December 21, 2020, 05:30:35 PM »
with over 10,000 having flown from the UK to Switzerland this past w/e alone , it can be assumed the Alps will be a hub of infection for this new strain this winter just as it was first time around . Thank dog we learn from our mistakes ..
  re extra viral load , it certainly seems to be accepted hereas fact in the UK .. I have heard it frequently referred to in the past 24 hours but not the original affirmation .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10344 on: December 21, 2020, 05:58:02 PM »
Italy Has Patient With New Strain of Virus Found In Britain
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN28U0RY

(Reuters) - Italy has detected a patient infected with the new strain of the coronavirus also found in Britain, the health ministry said on Sunday.

The patient and his partner returned from the United Kingdom in the last few days with a flight that landed at Rome's Fiumicino airport and were now in isolation, the ministry said.

--------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10345 on: December 21, 2020, 06:04:27 PM »
I saw this elsewhere first, but
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/11/astrazeneca-oxford-to-create-combination-covid-19-vaccine-with-russias-sputnik-v/

Quote
AstraZeneca announced Friday that it will begin enrolling volunteers into clinical trials to determine whether its Covid-19 vaccine candidate, developed with the University of Oxford, will work better when combined with Gamaleya’s Sputnik V vaccine, which is already being deployed in Russia.

A bit more info from the one I viewed first.
https://www.rt.com/russia/510259-covid-sputnik-vaccine-developer-interview/

Quote
Just like the Russian vaccine, the British product uses two injections administered weeks apart to boost immune response. The difference is that the British vaccine uses the same formula for both jabs, while the Russian shot has two different versions. The AstraZeneca vaccine uses a chimpanzee adenovirus as a delivery vector, while Sputnik V uses two different kinds of human adenoviruses.

By using two different vectors to deliver the same viral material, the Russian product works better to form long-term immunity, Gintsburg said. Receiving AstraZeneca’s vaccine followed by the Sputnik V three weeks later would work in a similar way. The two parties agreed to study this theory.

“We will conduct a clinical trial and see how this combination works in terms of safety, immunogenicity and protectivity,” he said.

Note:  I would prefer not to hear any denigration of my web browsing habits.   I do occasionally go to the second site to see  u.s. citizens who are my pacifists friends and/or pacifist acquaintances who get picked up there for comments and/or commentary.   

peace out.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10346 on: December 21, 2020, 07:29:05 PM »
A question based on my lines of thinking and I am wondering if this thinking is basically correct.

The new strain is more contagious and delivers more viral load per spreading event.

It is more contagious but that is not the same as more viral load per spreading event. In a way that load depends on the circumstances more then the virus.

So i do not think your conclusion is correct.

The average swab picks up about 4x as much virus in B.1.1.7 positives compared to other COVID positives. There are possible confounding factors (e.g. symptom appearance at a different stage of progress resulting in tests being done at a stage of the disease progression) but it definitely looks like people with B.1.1.7 have a lot more virus in the places it gets coughed out from. There's not enough data analysed yet to conclude whether there's worse disease in the people that breathe it in, but at the moment it looks like having a lot more virus available to breathe out is why its more contagious.


harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10347 on: December 21, 2020, 08:24:28 PM »
with over 10,000 having flown from the UK to Switzerland this past w/e alone , it can be assumed the Alps will be a hub of infection for this new strain this winter just as it was first time around . Thank dog we learn from our mistakes ..
  re extra viral load , it certainly seems to be accepted hereas fact in the UK .. I have heard it frequently referred to in the past 24 hours but not the original affirmation .

Imagine how entitled a group of people have to be to actually go to ski resorts in the middle of a pandemic.

Wow, they're just a more classy and more educated version of Americans with the same enormous entitlement issues.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10348 on: December 21, 2020, 11:21:07 PM »
US Health Officials: No Need to Ban Flights From UK Even as It Battles New Coronavirus Variant

WASHINGTON – U.S. health officials say they do not yet see a need to halt flights from the United Kingdom, even as a growing number of other countries ban British travelers amid the rapid spread of a new variant of coronavirus in London and elsewhere.

Experts have warned, however, that even if the variant is not more lethal, it will likely lead to an increase in infections, hospitalizations and virus-related deaths.

Gov. Cuomo in New York has called on the Trump administration to halt flights from the U.K. to the U.S. in an effort to limit or block the new variant from spreading here. ... "We can't let history repeat itself with this new virus variant."

"This is another disaster waiting to happen," he said at a briefing Monday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1341078993831940097

... President Donald Trump's assistant secretary for health, Admiral Brett Giroir, said the CDC has not made any recommendation to limit travel from the U.K. to the United States. In an interview Monday with CNN, Giroir said he spoke with CDC Director Robert Redfield on Sunday evening about the matter. ... "So I don't think there should be any reason for alarm right now," he said

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... this would be the same CDC Director Robert Redfield, whose been looking after our best interests ...

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House Democrats Subpoena HHS and CDC Directors for Documents In Political Interference Investigation
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/21/politics/subpoena-hhs-cdc-house-democrats/index.html

House Democrats on Monday subpoenaed Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield for documents related to their investigation into what role alleged political interference may have played in educating the American public on the spread and threat of the coronavirus.

Democrats on the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis warned Azar and Redfield that they have until December 30 to produce all the emails and communications related to the publication of a series of scientific reports. The committee first requested the documents in September.

The committee argued that they need the documents to continue their investigation, which they say so far has revealed that over a four-month stretch, the "Trump administration appointees attempted to alter or block at least 14 scientific reports related to the virus."

The subcommittee also is alleging that political appointees drafted rebuttals to discredit official scientific CDC reports, and political officials retaliated against career officials who did not fall in line.

"Top political officials at HHS and CDC not only tolerated these efforts, but in some cases aided them—even after a senior career official warned that CDC's scientific writing 'needs to remain an independent process' and that the Administration's attempts to influence these reports violated 'long-standing policy,'" Democrats on the committee wrote in a letter to Azar and Redfield.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/12/21/house-watchdog-cdc-covid-reports-449517
« Last Edit: December 22, 2020, 12:47:27 AM by vox_mundi »
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10349 on: December 22, 2020, 01:07:29 AM »
with over 10,000 having flown from the UK to Switzerland this past w/e alone , it can be assumed the Alps will be a hub of infection for this new strain this winter just as it was first time around . Thank dog we learn from our mistakes ..
  re extra viral load , it certainly seems to be accepted hereas fact in the UK .. I have heard it frequently referred to in the past 24 hours but not the original affirmation .

Imagine how entitled a group of people have to be to actually go to ski resorts in the middle of a pandemic.

Wow, they're just a more classy and more educated version of Americans with the same enormous entitlement issues.

I am almost certainly wrong with this but I don't care..... I think those self entitled rich people who refuse to stop flying all around the world in whatever means they have are one of the main reason Covid spread globally.

I should note I am not a big fan of the super wealthy so my opinion on this is extremely biased, even though I do think there is an element of truth in it.